November 10, 2022 • 38 mins
Brian Noe previews a loaded football weekend! Brian chats with Pickswise Lead Betting Analyst Jared Smith about the Saturday slate in college football, including Alabama vs. Ole Miss and North Carolina vs. Wake Forest. Brian previews the NFL weekend with Sports Handicapper from KrackWins.com Bill Krackomberger, including Bills vs. Vikings and a weather-impacted Thursday night game between the Panthers and Falcons.
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Are you college fans? Welcome to the biggest tailgate party
in the nation, Fox Sports Radio's Countdown to Kickoff presented
by bat MGM, the King of sports book. We're setting
you up with the information you need to watch your
(00:21):
team win. Let's go. We're here to break it all down.
Let's go, let's go. This is Fox Sports Radios Countdown
to Kickoff presented by bet MGM. We're live from your
tail game. Here's Brian No. Welcome in, everybody. It's the
Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM podcast. We'll have
(00:46):
Jared Smith talking some college football from picks wise dot com.
We'll have Bill Crackenburger talking to NFL. He's from crack
Winds dot com. New users download the bet MGM app
today and use code countdown for a special offer that
code countdown in the bet mg M app. All. Let's
welcome in. Jared Smith here from pis wise dot com.
(01:07):
He's their lead betting analyst. And you want to talk
some trash about playoff rankings. Here to start the pot here, Jerry,
do I have that right? Well, what's up with TCU
number four in the rankings yet a seven point underdog
against number eighteen Texas. What do you think about that, Brian.
We we've discussed this. There is a just a clear
(01:28):
ignorance towards the gambling markets when the College Football Committee
has their little pow wows every week. It's the second
week in a row that we've seen a massive discrepancy
with what the power ratings tell us, which, in my opinion,
the points bread is kind of gospel with these teams
and what the committee is trying to force feed down
(01:49):
our throats and listen, take nothing away from the process.
I understand we are in the middle of what is
a six to eight week kind of grading process and
we're only two weeks in. But to have another week
where the number one team, or in this case, the
number four team is such a heavy underdog against the
team beneath them in the rankings, it just it makes
(02:12):
the process that the Cultural Playoff commtee is doing a
little bit shaghaizy, and it it just it makes me,
you know, question everything, and I implore all of you
to not take their rankings as gospel when you're handicapping
these teams every week. Yeah, it's it's really interesting how
it how it blends because the selection committee. They're just
looking at what teams have done to this point, and
(02:34):
the gambling community looks at where these teams are headed.
And so I think that's just fascinating how it works out.
Now you do get the gambling community. We're looking at
number four TCU, number eight team Texas where it's heading right,
and Texas the numbers, Uh, they favor the Longhorns in
(02:55):
this matchup. That's why there's seven point favorites here. How
about this line, It has a moved throughout the week
really at all. Texas favored by seven and the total
is sixty four and a half. To me, I'll just
give you one quick point here, Jared, to let you
weigh in. I think this is a lot like baseball. Okay,
what I mean by that is TCU they are like
a home run hitting team because they hit on these
(03:18):
big plays. That is their calling card. They've had thirteen
touchdowns of forty plus yards this season, that leads the FBS.
And Texas defense they'll give up a whole lot of
big plays. They are the third fewest in the Big
Twelve giving up forty plus yard plays. And so what
I think about baseball is a home run hitting team,
(03:39):
they're just June July hitting home runs left and right.
You get late in the season, you get to the playoffs,
How good are you when the ball isn't flying out
of the stadium. So that's my question for TCU, How
good are they if they aren't hitting on those big
plays against Texas? You nailed the comparison, and I think
(04:00):
to me, TCU has been a really nice story. But
it's fair to say they're ahead of schedule. In Sunny
Dikes's first season as head coach, and Max Dugan, who's
kind of been this journeyman, you know, and now he's
exploding onto the scene. And I think when the games
do get more important, yeah, that's that's gonna kind of
(04:21):
be when the rubber meets the road, and I don't know,
you know, in you know, historical context, Sunny Dikes in
those moments has not done well. Now when you look
at this specific game, there's a couple of things that
do scare me on the TCU side. First of all,
Duggan's nursing a little bit of a calf injury and
Quentin Johnson's nursing a little bit of an ankle injury.
And if those two things are not in sync, TCUs
(04:45):
offense becomes much less explosive. Like imagine if Aaron Judge had,
you know, an oblique injury right, he could still hit
one four fifty, but it just might not happen as
consistently and he might not have the full tank of
gas in this game. Tea, and Texas defense gets after you.
We've discussed this wrinkle with Texas this season and I
(05:06):
will continue to harp on it. Their defense is ahead
of their offense. Pete Quaietkowski has done a fantastic job,
and I've mentioned Gary Patterson's name at least three or
four times this year. It matters this week more than
any other week. If there's one guy that knows Max
Dugan better than anyone, it's Gary Patterson. So it's just
I think there's a lot of things to like about
Texas in this spot, and I think the line will
(05:28):
move off of seven towards the Longhorns later in the week.
Even though you look at the numbers, right, you look
at the box scores and the standings, and you say,
how can a three lost team be favored by a
full touchdown against an unbeaten team that's fourth in the country. Well,
They're not really the fourth best team in the country
if you look at a lot of the ratings that
we examine on a weekly basis. Yeah, interesting stuff. I
(05:50):
love the running back matchup be Sean Robinson. He gets
a lot of love, and deservedly so. But Kendre Miller
he just does not get the love I think he deserves.
He's rushed for over a thousand yards. He's only a
hundred and twenty yards behind Bi Jean Robinson. And I
guarantee if you go up to college football fans on
the street and just say, Hey, who's TCUs running back,
(06:13):
I doubt a lot of them are saying, Oh, it's
ken Dre Miller. You know, but he's had a great season.
I'm also I'm interested in the first half line here
because Texas has gotten out to hot starts and they
fizzled down the stretch, and a couple of these games,
TCU has four second half comebacks, so they're not great
at starting off. So I think that the emotion in
(06:34):
the stadium, I think he might see a hot start
from Texas in the first half. I've got my eye
on that Texas first half line. I don't mind that
at all. Listen. I I think you look at TCU
and they're deef. You know, we're not going to talk
a lot about that side of the ball. You know.
The big matchup, just like last week when it was
Georgia's defense against Tennessee's offense, the matchup to watch here
(06:56):
is TCU's offense against Texas defense. That's the strength on strength.
But TCUs defense has been very fortunate. They have Phase
Day backup quarterback in five of the last six games,
and one of those games was a third stringer with
Kansas date. So it's just I think their defense has
yet to be tested. And say what you want about yours.
(07:16):
He's looked a little shaky, but he's had some moments
and this is a big game. He takes the mullet,
feels like it shows up for the big games, right Like,
it's just he's got that big game vibe to him.
So I will I don't know if I'm gonna back
Texas against the number this week because I do think
the market stretched, and for example, the rating systems that
(07:38):
I subscribe to at this time of year, we have
a lot of data to go off of, and this
game one of the really good rating systems that's done
really well against spread this year has this game Texas
minus nine. Another rating system that's done really well this
season against the spread has it TCU minus eight. So
there's a lot of variants here, And depending on what
metrics you look at. I can make a case for
(08:00):
Line being way overvalued at seven and this should be
a three or three and a half. And I can
make a case for Texas maybe being a double ditch
your favorite based off of a couple of injuries. So
I might not bet this. I think Texas wins the game,
but I think the spreads the ConA all over the place. Yeah, yeah,
you mentioned the Mullet there, and I just thought, oh gosh,
if I take Texas in the first half, I am
(08:20):
betting on his stupid mullet. You know. I'm also been
like John Robinson in that defense, but I am siding
with the stupid mullet. I think I thought you were
a fan of them all. I freaking hate the stupid molt,
like maybe when you were. Specifically, it's not anti Mullet
for everybody. It's just Quinn yours. When he misses an
open receiver, or he throws a pick, or he does
(08:44):
something bad. He's got the stupid mullet. It's just it's
way dumber. It's like wearing a loud, crazy outfit to
the post game interview when you lost. You know, it's
like it doesn't fit. I don't like the mullet when
he's playing badly. That's all. Yeah. I mean I try.
I've made pretty questionable fashion and hair and you know,
choices throughout my life, so I try not to like.
(09:07):
It's not as look that I would probably rock though.
Who are It's basically what you're selling. Who am I?
You you've seen my head shot on the website. It's
not exactly Gucci and ARMANI. Here, you look fine, man?
He looks to another game. How about this number nine
Alabama against number eleven Old Miss Bama seven and two.
(09:28):
They're out of the race. This is weird right now
for them. But all Miss eleven and a half point
underdogs in this matchup. If you want to do another
baseball comparison here, it is all Miss not a whole
lot of um, I don't know, trickery. It's like we're
gonna run the ball. Here comes the fastball, can you
(09:48):
hit it right? That's what they're saying to Obama's defense,
so all miss gonna try to run it. That's what
they do best. It's a matter of can Alabama slow
them down enough. Quinn Sean Judkins fun aim to say,
rolls off the tongue um true freshman. Third in the
country in rush yards per game, I mean, averaging almost
six per tak. He's a dude as a freshman in
(10:10):
the SEC. That is very impressive. The one thing that
scares So there's two narratives here that you can go with,
one being let's all dance on Nick Saban's crave right
like it's over. Alabama's dynasty is dead, and this and
that and and then that narrative I think has a
little more starch this week because I think Bryce Young,
(10:33):
I think the shoulder injury is keeping him a little
bit less than than his full potential this season. Then
there's the other side of it, which is Nick Sabans
five and oh against the spread off a loss in
the last five games, covering by almost two scores, including
a twenty four point win this year over Mississippi State
that probably should have been a shutout. I think the
Bulldog scored on the last play the game and that
was after the Tennessee laws, so it's it's kind of
(10:56):
picked your poison, right, And I was very impressed with
Lane Kiffins interview this week, so he was asked specifically.
He said Paul find Bomb texted him specifically, oh, is
the Saban dynasty over? And his response was, that's just
goat fuel for Saban instead of rat poison. Now we're
(11:17):
talking about goat fuel. And that's kind of where I
lean here. I don't fully trust Old Miss. Terrible schedule.
Best team they've played was L s U and they
got absolutely destroyed in that game. They couldn't win against
the number against D and M despite rushing for four
under the yards. So I don't fully trust Ole Miss.
And I think a lot of people are going to
take the rat poison this week and think that Nick
(11:38):
Saban is done and this Alabama team is done. But
I kind of lean to the other side, and I
think the goat fuel might be the way I'm trending here.
What a great quote right there. Yeah, that's I wonder
which way you're leaning on. The total at sixty four
and a half, that's high, but I leaned to the over.
(11:59):
I think Old Miss his defense is trash. I can
see Alabama putting up forty and the way that Old
Miss runs the ball. You look at Alabama, even though
their numbers are good over the season, they're giving up
over five yards per carry, so they only give up
a hundred and four rushing yards per game, but they've
led a lot of the way like Mississippi State. They're
(12:20):
not gonna be running the running the ball on Alabama,
so sometimes the numbers lie a little bit on a
per game average. If you're giving up five plus yards
per carry against Old Miss, I think Old Miss gonna
score some points to I lean to the over sixty
four and a half. I mean, the metrics say Alabama's
defenses outside the top forty in adjusted line yards created
(12:42):
outside the top sixty and sack right, so they're not
getting as much pressure and they're not moving as many
people as Alabama teams tend to do. On the other side,
Old Miss absolutely can be pushed around and they can
be thrown on outside the top eighty in adjusted line
yards created up front outside the top ninety passing defensive
efficiency outside the top one hundred and opportunity rate. I
(13:04):
think Jamir Gibbs will have some space bright Young's shoulders
the one flymy ointment. He definitely looks a little bit
wonky and maybe you know, year old kid, He's gonna
bounce back strong. He's gonna be fine this week. And
this All Miss defense isn't as physical, but I could
see him not being as aggressive running the football, and
I think that takes away an element to Alabama's offense
(13:25):
that they need right now. But on the other end,
man Bam is gonna be piste off this week more
than any other week. I I just I feel like
we're gonna see their best stuff against on the road,
they tend to perk up a little bit, and I
just I'm not willing to to, you know, bury the
hatchet on Nick Saban right now. I'm just I'm not
there yet. So I think it's Alabama or it's a
(13:48):
pass for me. Interesting. How about one more here? You've
got your eye on North Carolina eight and one, only
have lost to the Irish by the way, huh, let's
go indeed, sorry, but uh you got North Carolina eight
and one against wake Forest, wake Forest to six and three.
How about this total catches my eye? But well, two
(14:09):
things catch my wake Forest is a their favored by
three and a half against the one lost team. And
the other thing that catches my eye it was opening
around seventy six and a half for the total. It's
ticked up. We're up to seventy seven, so you're looking
at cutting that in a half. I was trying to
do the uh, the quick math. You're talking about thirty
nine thirty nine somewhere around there to get the over right.
(14:32):
Each team's gotta score in the ballpark of thirty nine
points as a lot of freaking points, but defense optional
in this one. Neither team will be confused with the
eighty five Bears anytime soon. New Um And you mentioned it,
and and listen, I wasn't if you didn't mention the
Notre Dame game. I was. It's actually very prominent in
my notes. That's the best team u NC has played
(14:53):
all year. And what was the result. So yeah, it
was disgusting. The Tar Hills tread by twenty five and
the fourth quarter. So you look at u n C
and what are we talk It's a mirror image of
the t CU Texas situation. U n C is eight
and one. But Brad Powers, who's one of the most
prominent college Football Bettors right now in our space has
(15:16):
them outside the top forty in his ratings. Wow, they
are not an eight and one team. They have played nobody.
Their schedule is a disaster, and the a c C
is a disaster. So I just it's really hard to
judge where U n C is. And here is actually
taken that back, it's really not hard to judge where
(15:38):
they are. They're they're not as good as their record says.
Let's just leave it at that. But here's the part
about this game that I think is fascinating. If this
game was played two weeks ago before, Wake committed just
un goodly amount of turnovers in the two game stretch,
eleven of them, to be exact, this is a minus seven,
minus eight kind of game. Oh you know, seven and
(15:58):
a half. So you have to ask yourself those two
games against Louisville and NC State, who are actually top
fifty kind of defenses that create some havoc. If you
now play this game against U n C, which is
outside the top one and all of those key defensive metrics,
do those turnovers happened? The expected number of turnovers was
(16:20):
half of eleven, so some of them were flukey and again,
I just I don't see why you downgrade weight five
points on the line or four points from eight to four,
or seven and a half to three and a half.
After two games with eleven turnovers. There's gonna be regression there.
So I think Wake is in a fantastic spot this
week to bounce back really strong at home. And if
(16:42):
it wasn't for Drake May mac brown might be looking
for a new job. Yeah, it's interesting because it's it's
yuck versus yuck as of late. Because what you're saying
about North Carolina, it's not just that they haven't played anybody,
it's that they've barely beaten no buddy, you know what
I mean. Look at the schedule. They beat Virginia by three,
(17:04):
they beat Duke by three, They beat Miami by three.
Those are all games on the road. By the way.
They beat Georgia State on the road by seven. They
survived against Appalachian State by two down this year, right,
those are all road games. They have not been world
beaters on the road the last two games that Wake
has dropped turnover fest as you outlined at Louisville at
(17:28):
NC State. They're at home against North Carolina in this one,
So I think that's another reason to side with Wake
if you. And even the game against Pitt where they
won by eighteen. Pitt took a lot of professional money
in that game and it was a tight game. In
the fourth quarter, UNC was doubt and they scored one
on the fourth turnover, like it just kind of got
out of hand. So there is not one result on
(17:51):
UNC schedule that I'm like, Yep, they're legit. This would
be there by far their best win of the year,
and the loss to Notre Dame, I think you really
have to take a look at and say they can
be scored on by teams that can get some push
up front and be a little deceptive and you know,
say which one about Notre Dames offense. You're starting to
see some really good things. So I think this is
(18:14):
a really good spot for Wake. And that doesn't mean
they're gonna win by twenty, but I think you're gonna
see this line continue to move towards four and four
and a half through the weekend, and I'm on Wake.
I got three and a half and I think it's
a good I think it's a good beat, very nice. Alright,
we'll get more picks from you on Saturday. Everybody check
us out. Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM. We're
(18:35):
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Bet mg M, the King of sports books. Let's welcome
in Bill Crackenburger sports Andy Kapper from crack Winds dot com.
He's literally betting right before the betting podcast. That's why
we love you so much. I'm still on Carolina Panthers Weather.
Jeff Schwartz area. Um, it looks like we're I mean,
(19:18):
there's there's bad not you know, bad weather that's a
strong word. There is wet and windy night expected, but
the wind is everything. We know that the wind gus
so I'll be checking more towards game time the weather
forecast for the gust of wind and that's what means
everything in these type of situations. But we're already seeing
underaction on everything across the board. I sent our group
(19:41):
chat um some understuff, and I'm just looking under on
a multitude of proposition bets and yeah, wet and windy
when the quarterback matchup is Marcus Mariota and p J. Walker, right, yes,
there you go hitting a lot of running, any running overs,
any rushing oops that you like. And you know you
said you We've said that on our show on Sundays
(20:03):
and you were correct on that first Sunday with the
Bears and forty diners. Haven't really done that. Just looking
on a plethora of unders here. Uh, with like Mariota,
it doesn't sound right. Mariota under completions thirteen and a
half plus a dollar ten out here in Vegas in
two different spots. Uh, it sounds low, but I'm still
going under. Uh how about this Walker under a hundred
(20:27):
and seventy one and a half yards at one shop.
I bet it for a pretty large bet. They didn't
move yet I can't believe it. I wanted just one
sixty eight and a half. I figured the other one
was gonna move, And you know you don't know what's
gonna happen in there. Are they gonna switch up quarterbacks
at halftime? There's some rumors, but uh, you know, we
we just don't know that they're they're a mess. They're
a mess. So lots of unders here across the board.
(20:50):
It doesn't sound like a lot one seventy one and
a half because you know, usually quarterbacks are to fifty
two sixty, especially the bigger names to seventy eight. Wow.
I just think with the gust, the wind and the
situation where the quarterback situation there, Carolina, Um, Yeah, I
like some unders here. Man. That's an interesting angle though,
Crack because last week p J. Walker, as you know,
(21:12):
he got benched. He played terribly, and Baker Mayfield came
in the second half against the Bengals played a lot better.
It was garbage time pretty much the entire second half.
But you're right, if p J. Walker gets off to
a slow start and the conditions are not favorable, you
can see a quick hook going to Baker Mayfield. And
now Sam Darnald is has been activated, he's ready to
(21:32):
go as well. I mean, it's unbelievable. There's there's two
former NFL you know, seven figure, seven figure salary quarterbacks
that are that aren't even scheduled to start the game.
That's just it's just amazing, amazing, it is crazy. Um. Alright,
let's look at some of the other games on the
week ten slate. How about this. You've got the Houston
(21:55):
Texans and the New York Giants on your dar here
as we speak right now, Giants favored by five. That
number is ticked down a little bit. They were favored
a little bit more earlier in the week. The total
is forty one. You might be looking first half, though, crack,
what are you thinking here? I'm looking at the first
half over right now. A lot of shops in Vegas
(22:17):
and uh even MGM twenty under where you won't have
to lay much juice one all five or even there's
a couple of shops that are even over twenty no juice.
So um, I'm looking at the over first half, Houston Giants.
I like playing over more in the first half in
full game. I don't know what happens. Sometimes there you
say the line, I know it opened six down the
(22:39):
four and a half and five. Um. A lot of times,
let's say the Giants are up by two touchdowns. They're
gonna be literally running the ball in the second half.
Euston will be playing come from behind and Houston is
not one of those teams with giant, high power offense
that they can really uh come from behind where if
they're throw an interception or something, Giants are gonna around
the clock out. So I like a situation where you
(23:02):
um at the first half over both teams are playing
at full speed. And uh and by the way, I
don't think not that I'm saying the Giants are gonna
be beaten this team. Houston can easily beat the Giants.
That's my bet against team all year though, and uh,
as we know the season wins, they're gonna beat me
on this year. Um, but I think they're gonna score
some points in the first half today. Yeah, I want
(23:24):
to get your thoughts on the game in Germany. We've
got the Seahawks and Tampa Bay. Tampa is a three
point favorite and the total is forty four and a half.
So I guess both angles here won the game. Are
we just? Are we bullish to a fault because we
thought Tampa was gonna be better than Seattle before the
(23:45):
season began, And we're just that adjusting to Tampa is
not better thus far than Seattle is. Yet Tampa's favored
by three on a neutral on a neutral field. What
do you think about that list? I had word that
you know, Brady wasn't retiring, and I bet some futures
on Tampa that I wish I didn't bet. I got
sick odds to like Dirty five to one or something
(24:06):
I I wish I didn't bet. There. They're just so
out of sort three points. I mean, this game opened
up one. You're telling me it went to three. It's unbelievable.
I see one, two, three shops from one of which MGM, yeah,
this is just seems like too many points. I don't
know what what happens on the travel over there. I
hate these games, by the way, six dirty in the morning,
(24:27):
Vegas time, and and you know, we go on air
at nine on our show and and um, I'm sorry,
we're going We're on air seven seven to ten my time,
so we're on and literally broadcasting the game. You just
don't know the situation. You don't know the travel. I
don't think Germany. You might know this, Brian is is
Germany so much further than England. Probably not right, it's
(24:50):
not too bad. Uh, the traveling one. Yeah, oh, I see,
I see distance wise, yeah it is more. Um well,
I believe depending on which route you take. Yeah, it's
fives okay, I just looked it up five miles, so
that's that's just too bad. That's like cross country here.
Yeah yeah, yeah, not just just like yeah, I U,
(25:11):
I see the difference wise between you. I just one
of the different So it's not it's not like that's
not like they went to their going to Antarctica. I mean,
they're just going to Germany. So I don't know what's
gonna happen here. I I see it open one went down,
that went up to two and a half. I can't
believe that it's actually at three at Let me tell
you it's only two shops now too that I see
(25:31):
at the three, So I'd be inclined to take Seattle.
I just we talked a little off air today guys
on Coach of the Year, and we've talked about how, um,
Nick Sierriani is the big, the big favorite to be
Coach of the Year here. But me and my guys
we were looking at some long shots here for Coach
(25:53):
of the year. Just a sprinkle. Uh, not a peanut,
a half of a peanut on some you know, double
digits uh literally like double digits guys that were coach
of the year. Listen, I'm not petting much, Sirian. He's
probably gonna win. He's he's a minus one fifty. But
I just thought Pete Carroll was good at like ten
to one, twelve to one. Uh, he's done a hell
(26:15):
of a job. But then again, you look at the ball.
I mean there's so many coaches here. You can look
at Roberts Solid, there's so many coaches either have done
unbelievable jobs. But when you have an unbeaten team, um,
which also we looked at, it's funny will the team
go on beaten? Uh, we looked at that also the
odds on that. So they're fun futures. They're actually fun
usually heavyly heavily juice markets though, um do your line
(26:38):
shopping there on those kind of gimmick bets and and
uh so it's it should be fun here. I think
I would have to lean Seattle though here, and I
have to leave Seattle with Pete Carroll. Yeah, it's funny
because I was just thinking about last year, because I
won I bet on Mike Vrabel. Oh wow, and that
I I don't remember what the odds were when I
(27:01):
bet it. It was shorter than that at the time. Yeah,
but I'm just thinking about think about Vrabel and they
were the one seed in the a f C, and
that was a bit more of a surprise than Fleur
with the Packers being the one seed over there with
Green Bay. So you know, maybe if Pete Caroline Seattle
(27:21):
win the NFC West, that's a much bigger surprise than
the Eagules winning the NFC East. So absolutely correct, perfect,
that's a great, great point, great point, absolutely right, nice,
thank you. All right, let's move to another one here, crag.
How about this. Let's go to Minnesota and Buffalo. Buffalo
right now favored by three and a half at bet MGM.
(27:44):
It's trending where Josh Allen most likely will not be
playing quarterback for the Bills in this one. If that's
the case, and we don't know that just yet, where
do you lean in this one? You know, I'm looking
at my I have a live odds screen with the
latest weather and for ation, and both both sources on
the screen for they just put him a questionable but listen,
(28:08):
the better is kind of no. We we get good
information from uh the guys that are on the inside.
And I say inside, I'm talking about like a guy
like that that actually works for like ESPN or even
his life. His whole life is checking and sending out
injury reports with tamillion followers. So, um, he says he's
(28:29):
not playing. So I'm gonna go with him and and
say he's he's not playing. Um, that's schefter, that's what
he says. Or he put a tweet out earlier in
the week this line when he said that literally went
from nine it opened at nine and went down to
the three and a half where it currently sits. Um,
I I probably have to uh not give out anything
(28:52):
on this game now because I always tell these guys this,
and you know, it's it's funny if I'm not in
for the wedding, guys that don't want to be in
for the funeral. So I I don't want to be
in for a line now what has been ironed out
and it's baked in the line. Um, I don't want
to be in. I'm gonna read the latest tweet. Bill's
(29:12):
quarterback Josh Allen nursing an injury to his own owner
collateral ligament. I'm sure I said that wrong and related
nerves officially did not participate in practice today. That was
nineteen hours ago. I'm thinking that that's not going to happen,
and uh, if not, he's not gonna be at as
as fullest. Anyway, Listen, this game dropped from forty eight
and a half down to forties three and a half. Boy,
(29:34):
don't forget now. We we got a team that you know,
with the new court, with the new UH coach over
there in Minnesota. Uh, you know he's allowed to throw
the ball over there, so you've got a powered offense
over there too. I know some guys have been a
little tough on him cousins this year, and uh, I
wouldn't be going under no more at forty and a
half when I could have forty eight. A matter of fact,
(29:55):
if it goes down to some of the key numbers
of forty three, um, that the this and when it's official,
if it's official that Alan's not playing, I mean that
the keiest number in the NFL s thirty seven, but
then the forty one, then forty three. These numbers are
are vital, so uh, you know the easily can go
over by accident, even with backup quarterbacks, when you still
(30:16):
have the Minnesota offense out on the field. Man, there's
so many games I'm interested in, crack, I'll hit on
a couple of them with your rapid fire style. How
about this Arizona at the Rams quarterback questions for both teams?
You have Kyler Murray. He was listed on the injury
report with a hamstring injury. He's considered day to day.
Matthew Stafford is in concussion protocols. So do you even
(30:40):
touch this line without knowing exactly who's gonna be behind
center on Sunday? You know, Um, the Rams are opened
up a three. When that when the rumors came out
about the quarterback, they went down the one even pick
them yesterday, I've seen pick thems. Now it sits at
one and a half. Don't be surprised if if, uh it,
(31:01):
don't be surprised if if if Stafford doesn't play here. So, um,
don't be surprised if he doesn't play. I don't know.
I have a pretty decent injury guy that tells me
a lot of things, and he he I know they
placed him in a concussion protocol, but he said, don't
be surprised if he doesn't play that game and this
game doesn't bounce back up to the three. So, um,
(31:25):
I have no problem taking a lean on this game.
I didn't know you were gonna mention this game, but
you mentioned it. I have no problem taking a lean
on the money line maybe minus a quarter here, with
the intent of maybe even middling a game, which I
usually don't do. But this kind of game. When it's
announced that Stafford will play, you know, pick minus and
plus three. Oh man, that's strong. So in Arizona, I
(31:48):
just can't stand him. I can't stand the team, and
there they just bother me to coach. Team is terrible. Um,
but I hate the ram But the Rams are, oh
my god, they they are maybe out of every year
in the NFL, A team that won the Super Bowl
coming back the next year. It's garbage. They are garbage. Yeah, yeah,
they are. No offensive line, can't run it, just problems
(32:10):
left and right band offensively. How about I want to
get your opinion on the Cowboys and Green Bay. You
talk about problems. Good lord, we've seen green Bay. They've
lost five in a row. Do I even have that right?
Doesn't even seem real. I didn't even know that was right.
Oh my god, let me talk about because yeah, yeah.
(32:33):
So we look at green Bay their last uh yeah,
last five games l l l l L. They've lost
five in a row here, and they are catching five
points at home as the dog against Dallas. A little
bit of sharp money. It looks like on Green Bay
in this one, do you look like a grease fire?
And yet it's been bent down a little bit? It
(32:54):
opened a little book ahead, the look ahead of my
wine moved twelve points in this game. Green Bay was
even huge movement. N Baby was giving seven. Have you
bet at the beginning of the season given six and
a half? It's now five the other way. Oh my god,
I know. And earlier this week I saw it at
five and a half. I don't know if it got
any higher than that, but it's down a bit. Green
(33:14):
Bay a five point home Underdug What do you think
about this? Would you be grabbing the points with Aaron
Rodgers and the dysfunctional Packers here? I'm not betting Dallas
in this game, that's for sure. I'm not laying a
points on the road against Listen, I under listen, I
had Rogers under It was almost a five figure swing
last week. Uh for me, Rogers under yards fourth and two,
(33:37):
last play of his offensive game, and it's the last
past that he completed by the way, throwing literally defender
falls down, got other guys over his shoulders fourth and two.
That costs me ridiculous amount of money. I screamed and yelled.
I never scream and yell, but it was just so
much because I gave it out on a big show,
gave it out on a parlay a platter, which was
all correlated, everything else one on that thing except for this.
(34:01):
Um I I really, I really just hate the way
green bass playing. But I'm not betting. I'm not betting
against this. Uh. You know, crafty veteran here either. He's
missing some some of his key you know, targets that
he had over the years though, and it's it's showing.
It's showing. So without saying it, crack when you're yelling out,
what is the phrase that you go with? You go
(34:23):
with the F word, you go? I just I I
literally had my feet up on my little lazy boy
and I had the prime what's that called the red
zone on and I'm listen I'm watching that, I probably
said darn it or damn it, that's it, damn it
last minute only cause I hate giving out Listen, I
don't even mind losing the money. I hate, hate, hate
(34:47):
giving out losers to people. I just hate it. They
overbet so much, they use there, they use more money
than they should. They they so I'm trying to help them,
but bankroll Management's just not in their game plan. And
when I give out yards under on something that I
was a giant favorite, I'm even Brady. If you were
to bet live odds on on had halftime, will Brady
(35:08):
go under his passing yards the pre flop pregame passing
yards you have to lay about five to about four
to one. No, And and these guys last minute going over,
Oh my god. It just and both guys, both teams
that lose it just it was. It was terrible. It
was terrible. I do love the image of you having
a game go sideways and hating it for all the
reasons that you detailed and just yelling started. I just
(35:33):
love that image of you. Correct. That's awesome. That's all.
It was just cost to people. And if it was
something else that I lost, uh, my own game that
I didn't about. I wouldn't even it wouldn't really phaze me.
But I I I care about the public. I care
about people, and I just want I know the human
condition when it is. I know the way people are
and I know what they gamble and just listen to
(35:54):
I know when I walk in a sports book, what
happens just this morning, it happened this morning, crack. Can
you give me one game? And the word guy used
was very bad. Can you give me one game to
get out for the week? Like, oh, get out for
the week, Like that's not even in my repertoire. But people,
people will be people. I just know the way it
(36:14):
works so um and I couldn't give it. I said, no, buddy,
I can't give you want to get out for a week.
It's all long term. He goes, not just give me something.
I'm not gonna be mad at you, like you know,
and and I honestly don't didn't even give him anything.
I just like gave him a high five. It's a buddy,
I have not so strong. I'm sorry. I mean, you know, yeah,
I can't have a guy depending on getting out for
(36:34):
him and give a dozen This guy's you know, uh
looking for gambos anonymous meeting. I mean, I'm sure you've
heard that, uh handful of times. Maybe you could be
rich if you had a nickel every time someone said
be mad at you, crack. If you give me a loser,
it's okay, I will be mad. Yeah, yeah, yeah, I
told you I had a guy with over a hundred
If I didn't tell you guys on the show, we
should save it for Sunday too. I had a guy
(36:56):
that dragged me in the I told you guys in
the Atlanta at the Bahamar, a hundred thousands of chips
you get handed me and he's like, go bet some
stuff for I don't even know the guy handing me
a hundred thousand dollars, Hey, crack, go bet this for
us here. We'll split it different ones. If it losers,
don't worry about it. I mean, it's not like a
guy handing me a thousand bucks or two hundred dollars,
a hundred thousand. I mean, it's just so sick. People
are sick. Man, I didn't do it. I didn't do it.
(37:21):
Be sure to check out the new looking features in
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Countdown to Kickoff, presented by bed MGM. Crack will be
(37:43):
with us, Jeff Schwartz, eight year NFL veteran, will be
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Are you college fans? Welcome to the biggest tailgate party
in the nation, Fox Sports Radio's Countdown to Kickoff presented
by bat MGM, the King of sports book. We're setting
you up with the information you need to watch your
(00:21):
team win. Let's go. We're here to break it all down.
Let's go, let's go. This is Fox Sports Radios Countdown
to Kickoff presented by bet MGM. We're live from your
tail game. Here's Brian No. Welcome in, everybody. It's the
Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM podcast. We'll have
(00:46):
Jared Smith talking some college football from picks wise dot com.
We'll have Bill Crackenburger talking to NFL. He's from crack
Winds dot com. New users download the bet MGM app
today and use code countdown for a special offer that
code countdown in the bet mg M app. All. Let's
welcome in. Jared Smith here from pis wise dot com.
(01:07):
He's their lead betting analyst. And you want to talk
some trash about playoff rankings. Here to start the pot here, Jerry,
do I have that right? Well, what's up with TCU
number four in the rankings yet a seven point underdog
against number eighteen Texas. What do you think about that, Brian.
We we've discussed this. There is a just a clear
(01:28):
ignorance towards the gambling markets when the College Football Committee
has their little pow wows every week. It's the second
week in a row that we've seen a massive discrepancy
with what the power ratings tell us, which, in my opinion,
the points bread is kind of gospel with these teams
and what the committee is trying to force feed down
(01:49):
our throats and listen, take nothing away from the process.
I understand we are in the middle of what is
a six to eight week kind of grading process and
we're only two weeks in. But to have another week
where the number one team, or in this case, the
number four team is such a heavy underdog against the
team beneath them in the rankings, it just it makes
(02:12):
the process that the Cultural Playoff commtee is doing a
little bit shaghaizy, and it it just it makes me,
you know, question everything, and I implore all of you
to not take their rankings as gospel when you're handicapping
these teams every week. Yeah, it's it's really interesting how
it how it blends because the selection committee. They're just
looking at what teams have done to this point, and
(02:34):
the gambling community looks at where these teams are headed.
And so I think that's just fascinating how it works out.
Now you do get the gambling community. We're looking at
number four TCU, number eight team Texas where it's heading right,
and Texas the numbers, Uh, they favor the Longhorns in
(02:55):
this matchup. That's why there's seven point favorites here. How
about this line, It has a moved throughout the week
really at all. Texas favored by seven and the total
is sixty four and a half. To me, I'll just
give you one quick point here, Jared, to let you
weigh in. I think this is a lot like baseball. Okay,
what I mean by that is TCU they are like
a home run hitting team because they hit on these
(03:18):
big plays. That is their calling card. They've had thirteen
touchdowns of forty plus yards this season, that leads the FBS.
And Texas defense they'll give up a whole lot of
big plays. They are the third fewest in the Big
Twelve giving up forty plus yard plays. And so what
I think about baseball is a home run hitting team,
(03:39):
they're just June July hitting home runs left and right.
You get late in the season, you get to the playoffs,
How good are you when the ball isn't flying out
of the stadium. So that's my question for TCU, How
good are they if they aren't hitting on those big
plays against Texas? You nailed the comparison, and I think
(04:00):
to me, TCU has been a really nice story. But
it's fair to say they're ahead of schedule. In Sunny
Dikes's first season as head coach, and Max Dugan, who's
kind of been this journeyman, you know, and now he's
exploding onto the scene. And I think when the games
do get more important, yeah, that's that's gonna kind of
(04:21):
be when the rubber meets the road, and I don't know,
you know, in you know, historical context, Sunny Dikes in
those moments has not done well. Now when you look
at this specific game, there's a couple of things that
do scare me on the TCU side. First of all,
Duggan's nursing a little bit of a calf injury and
Quentin Johnson's nursing a little bit of an ankle injury.
And if those two things are not in sync, TCUs
(04:45):
offense becomes much less explosive. Like imagine if Aaron Judge had,
you know, an oblique injury right, he could still hit
one four fifty, but it just might not happen as
consistently and he might not have the full tank of
gas in this game. Tea, and Texas defense gets after you.
We've discussed this wrinkle with Texas this season and I
(05:06):
will continue to harp on it. Their defense is ahead
of their offense. Pete Quaietkowski has done a fantastic job,
and I've mentioned Gary Patterson's name at least three or
four times this year. It matters this week more than
any other week. If there's one guy that knows Max
Dugan better than anyone, it's Gary Patterson. So it's just
I think there's a lot of things to like about
Texas in this spot, and I think the line will
(05:28):
move off of seven towards the Longhorns later in the week.
Even though you look at the numbers, right, you look
at the box scores and the standings, and you say,
how can a three lost team be favored by a
full touchdown against an unbeaten team that's fourth in the country. Well,
They're not really the fourth best team in the country
if you look at a lot of the ratings that
we examine on a weekly basis. Yeah, interesting stuff. I
(05:50):
love the running back matchup be Sean Robinson. He gets
a lot of love, and deservedly so. But Kendre Miller
he just does not get the love I think he deserves.
He's rushed for over a thousand yards. He's only a
hundred and twenty yards behind Bi Jean Robinson. And I
guarantee if you go up to college football fans on
the street and just say, Hey, who's TCUs running back,
(06:13):
I doubt a lot of them are saying, Oh, it's
ken Dre Miller. You know, but he's had a great season.
I'm also I'm interested in the first half line here
because Texas has gotten out to hot starts and they
fizzled down the stretch, and a couple of these games,
TCU has four second half comebacks, so they're not great
at starting off. So I think that the emotion in
(06:34):
the stadium, I think he might see a hot start
from Texas in the first half. I've got my eye
on that Texas first half line. I don't mind that
at all. Listen. I I think you look at TCU
and they're deef. You know, we're not going to talk
a lot about that side of the ball. You know.
The big matchup, just like last week when it was
Georgia's defense against Tennessee's offense, the matchup to watch here
(06:56):
is TCU's offense against Texas defense. That's the strength on strength.
But TCUs defense has been very fortunate. They have Phase
Day backup quarterback in five of the last six games,
and one of those games was a third stringer with
Kansas date. So it's just I think their defense has
yet to be tested. And say what you want about yours.
(07:16):
He's looked a little shaky, but he's had some moments
and this is a big game. He takes the mullet,
feels like it shows up for the big games, right Like,
it's just he's got that big game vibe to him.
So I will I don't know if I'm gonna back
Texas against the number this week because I do think
the market stretched, and for example, the rating systems that
(07:38):
I subscribe to at this time of year, we have
a lot of data to go off of, and this
game one of the really good rating systems that's done
really well against spread this year has this game Texas
minus nine. Another rating system that's done really well this
season against the spread has it TCU minus eight. So
there's a lot of variants here, And depending on what
metrics you look at. I can make a case for
(08:00):
Line being way overvalued at seven and this should be
a three or three and a half. And I can
make a case for Texas maybe being a double ditch
your favorite based off of a couple of injuries. So
I might not bet this. I think Texas wins the game,
but I think the spreads the ConA all over the place. Yeah, yeah,
you mentioned the Mullet there, and I just thought, oh gosh,
if I take Texas in the first half, I am
(08:20):
betting on his stupid mullet. You know. I'm also been
like John Robinson in that defense, but I am siding
with the stupid mullet. I think I thought you were
a fan of them all. I freaking hate the stupid molt,
like maybe when you were. Specifically, it's not anti Mullet
for everybody. It's just Quinn yours. When he misses an
open receiver, or he throws a pick, or he does
(08:44):
something bad. He's got the stupid mullet. It's just it's
way dumber. It's like wearing a loud, crazy outfit to
the post game interview when you lost. You know, it's
like it doesn't fit. I don't like the mullet when
he's playing badly. That's all. Yeah. I mean I try.
I've made pretty questionable fashion and hair and you know,
choices throughout my life, so I try not to like.
(09:07):
It's not as look that I would probably rock though.
Who are It's basically what you're selling. Who am I?
You you've seen my head shot on the website. It's
not exactly Gucci and ARMANI. Here, you look fine, man?
He looks to another game. How about this number nine
Alabama against number eleven Old Miss Bama seven and two.
(09:28):
They're out of the race. This is weird right now
for them. But all Miss eleven and a half point
underdogs in this matchup. If you want to do another
baseball comparison here, it is all Miss not a whole
lot of um, I don't know, trickery. It's like we're
gonna run the ball. Here comes the fastball, can you
(09:48):
hit it right? That's what they're saying to Obama's defense,
so all miss gonna try to run it. That's what
they do best. It's a matter of can Alabama slow
them down enough. Quinn Sean Judkins fun aim to say,
rolls off the tongue um true freshman. Third in the
country in rush yards per game, I mean, averaging almost
six per tak. He's a dude as a freshman in
(10:10):
the SEC. That is very impressive. The one thing that
scares So there's two narratives here that you can go with,
one being let's all dance on Nick Saban's crave right
like it's over. Alabama's dynasty is dead, and this and
that and and then that narrative I think has a
little more starch this week because I think Bryce Young,
(10:33):
I think the shoulder injury is keeping him a little
bit less than than his full potential this season. Then
there's the other side of it, which is Nick Sabans
five and oh against the spread off a loss in
the last five games, covering by almost two scores, including
a twenty four point win this year over Mississippi State
that probably should have been a shutout. I think the
Bulldog scored on the last play the game and that
was after the Tennessee laws, so it's it's kind of
(10:56):
picked your poison, right, And I was very impressed with
Lane Kiffins interview this week, so he was asked specifically.
He said Paul find Bomb texted him specifically, oh, is
the Saban dynasty over? And his response was, that's just
goat fuel for Saban instead of rat poison. Now we're
(11:17):
talking about goat fuel. And that's kind of where I
lean here. I don't fully trust Old Miss. Terrible schedule.
Best team they've played was L s U and they
got absolutely destroyed in that game. They couldn't win against
the number against D and M despite rushing for four
under the yards. So I don't fully trust Ole Miss.
And I think a lot of people are going to
take the rat poison this week and think that Nick
(11:38):
Saban is done and this Alabama team is done. But
I kind of lean to the other side, and I
think the goat fuel might be the way I'm trending here.
What a great quote right there. Yeah, that's I wonder
which way you're leaning on. The total at sixty four
and a half, that's high, but I leaned to the over.
(11:59):
I think Old Miss his defense is trash. I can
see Alabama putting up forty and the way that Old
Miss runs the ball. You look at Alabama, even though
their numbers are good over the season, they're giving up
over five yards per carry, so they only give up
a hundred and four rushing yards per game, but they've
led a lot of the way like Mississippi State. They're
(12:20):
not gonna be running the running the ball on Alabama,
so sometimes the numbers lie a little bit on a
per game average. If you're giving up five plus yards
per carry against Old Miss, I think Old Miss gonna
score some points to I lean to the over sixty
four and a half. I mean, the metrics say Alabama's
defenses outside the top forty in adjusted line yards created
(12:42):
outside the top sixty and sack right, so they're not
getting as much pressure and they're not moving as many
people as Alabama teams tend to do. On the other side,
Old Miss absolutely can be pushed around and they can
be thrown on outside the top eighty in adjusted line
yards created up front outside the top ninety passing defensive
efficiency outside the top one hundred and opportunity rate. I
(13:04):
think Jamir Gibbs will have some space bright Young's shoulders
the one flymy ointment. He definitely looks a little bit
wonky and maybe you know, year old kid, He's gonna
bounce back strong. He's gonna be fine this week. And
this All Miss defense isn't as physical, but I could
see him not being as aggressive running the football, and
I think that takes away an element to Alabama's offense
(13:25):
that they need right now. But on the other end,
man Bam is gonna be piste off this week more
than any other week. I I just I feel like
we're gonna see their best stuff against on the road,
they tend to perk up a little bit, and I
just I'm not willing to to, you know, bury the
hatchet on Nick Saban right now. I'm just I'm not
there yet. So I think it's Alabama or it's a
(13:48):
pass for me. Interesting. How about one more here? You've
got your eye on North Carolina eight and one, only
have lost to the Irish by the way, huh, let's
go indeed, sorry, but uh you got North Carolina eight
and one against wake Forest, wake Forest to six and three.
How about this total catches my eye? But well, two
(14:09):
things catch my wake Forest is a their favored by
three and a half against the one lost team. And
the other thing that catches my eye it was opening
around seventy six and a half for the total. It's
ticked up. We're up to seventy seven, so you're looking
at cutting that in a half. I was trying to
do the uh, the quick math. You're talking about thirty
nine thirty nine somewhere around there to get the over right.
(14:32):
Each team's gotta score in the ballpark of thirty nine
points as a lot of freaking points, but defense optional
in this one. Neither team will be confused with the
eighty five Bears anytime soon. New Um And you mentioned it,
and and listen, I wasn't if you didn't mention the
Notre Dame game. I was. It's actually very prominent in
my notes. That's the best team u NC has played
(14:53):
all year. And what was the result. So yeah, it
was disgusting. The Tar Hills tread by twenty five and
the fourth quarter. So you look at u n C
and what are we talk It's a mirror image of
the t CU Texas situation. U n C is eight
and one. But Brad Powers, who's one of the most
prominent college Football Bettors right now in our space has
(15:16):
them outside the top forty in his ratings. Wow, they
are not an eight and one team. They have played nobody.
Their schedule is a disaster, and the a c C
is a disaster. So I just it's really hard to
judge where U n C is. And here is actually
taken that back, it's really not hard to judge where
(15:38):
they are. They're they're not as good as their record says.
Let's just leave it at that. But here's the part
about this game that I think is fascinating. If this
game was played two weeks ago before, Wake committed just
un goodly amount of turnovers in the two game stretch,
eleven of them, to be exact, this is a minus seven,
minus eight kind of game. Oh you know, seven and
(15:58):
a half. So you have to ask yourself those two
games against Louisville and NC State, who are actually top
fifty kind of defenses that create some havoc. If you
now play this game against U n C, which is
outside the top one and all of those key defensive metrics,
do those turnovers happened? The expected number of turnovers was
(16:20):
half of eleven, so some of them were flukey and again,
I just I don't see why you downgrade weight five
points on the line or four points from eight to four,
or seven and a half to three and a half.
After two games with eleven turnovers. There's gonna be regression there.
So I think Wake is in a fantastic spot this
week to bounce back really strong at home. And if
(16:42):
it wasn't for Drake May mac brown might be looking
for a new job. Yeah, it's interesting because it's it's
yuck versus yuck as of late. Because what you're saying
about North Carolina, it's not just that they haven't played anybody,
it's that they've barely beaten no buddy, you know what
I mean. Look at the schedule. They beat Virginia by three,
(17:04):
they beat Duke by three, They beat Miami by three.
Those are all games on the road. By the way.
They beat Georgia State on the road by seven. They
survived against Appalachian State by two down this year, right,
those are all road games. They have not been world
beaters on the road the last two games that Wake
has dropped turnover fest as you outlined at Louisville at
(17:28):
NC State. They're at home against North Carolina in this one,
So I think that's another reason to side with Wake
if you. And even the game against Pitt where they
won by eighteen. Pitt took a lot of professional money
in that game and it was a tight game. In
the fourth quarter, UNC was doubt and they scored one
on the fourth turnover, like it just kind of got
out of hand. So there is not one result on
(17:51):
UNC schedule that I'm like, Yep, they're legit. This would
be there by far their best win of the year,
and the loss to Notre Dame, I think you really
have to take a look at and say they can
be scored on by teams that can get some push
up front and be a little deceptive and you know,
say which one about Notre Dames offense. You're starting to
see some really good things. So I think this is
(18:14):
a really good spot for Wake. And that doesn't mean
they're gonna win by twenty, but I think you're gonna
see this line continue to move towards four and four
and a half through the weekend, and I'm on Wake.
I got three and a half and I think it's
a good I think it's a good beat, very nice. Alright,
we'll get more picks from you on Saturday. Everybody check
us out. Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM. We're
(18:35):
on Fox Sports Radio, so three hours leading right up
to kickoff, so we'll just use Eastern time to be
easy here at nine am until noon. Picks, analysis, fund, mayhem,
all of it. Check us out on Saturday. We'll see
you then earn a fifty dollar bonus by signing into
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(18:56):
you and your friend will receive a fifty dollar bonus.
Bet mg M, the King of sports books. Let's welcome
in Bill Crackenburger sports Andy Kapper from crack Winds dot com.
He's literally betting right before the betting podcast. That's why
we love you so much. I'm still on Carolina Panthers Weather.
Jeff Schwartz area. Um, it looks like we're I mean,
(19:18):
there's there's bad not you know, bad weather that's a
strong word. There is wet and windy night expected, but
the wind is everything. We know that the wind gus
so I'll be checking more towards game time the weather
forecast for the gust of wind and that's what means
everything in these type of situations. But we're already seeing
underaction on everything across the board. I sent our group
(19:41):
chat um some understuff, and I'm just looking under on
a multitude of proposition bets and yeah, wet and windy
when the quarterback matchup is Marcus Mariota and p J. Walker, right, yes,
there you go hitting a lot of running, any running overs,
any rushing oops that you like. And you know you
said you We've said that on our show on Sundays
(20:03):
and you were correct on that first Sunday with the
Bears and forty diners. Haven't really done that. Just looking
on a plethora of unders here. Uh, with like Mariota,
it doesn't sound right. Mariota under completions thirteen and a
half plus a dollar ten out here in Vegas in
two different spots. Uh, it sounds low, but I'm still
going under. Uh how about this Walker under a hundred
(20:27):
and seventy one and a half yards at one shop.
I bet it for a pretty large bet. They didn't
move yet I can't believe it. I wanted just one
sixty eight and a half. I figured the other one
was gonna move, And you know you don't know what's
gonna happen in there. Are they gonna switch up quarterbacks
at halftime? There's some rumors, but uh, you know, we
we just don't know that they're they're a mess. They're
a mess. So lots of unders here across the board.
(20:50):
It doesn't sound like a lot one seventy one and
a half because you know, usually quarterbacks are to fifty
two sixty, especially the bigger names to seventy eight. Wow.
I just think with the gust, the wind and the
situation where the quarterback situation there, Carolina, Um, Yeah, I
like some unders here. Man. That's an interesting angle though,
Crack because last week p J. Walker, as you know,
(21:12):
he got benched. He played terribly, and Baker Mayfield came
in the second half against the Bengals played a lot better.
It was garbage time pretty much the entire second half.
But you're right, if p J. Walker gets off to
a slow start and the conditions are not favorable, you
can see a quick hook going to Baker Mayfield. And
now Sam Darnald is has been activated, he's ready to
(21:32):
go as well. I mean, it's unbelievable. There's there's two
former NFL you know, seven figure, seven figure salary quarterbacks
that are that aren't even scheduled to start the game.
That's just it's just amazing, amazing, it is crazy. Um. Alright,
let's look at some of the other games on the
week ten slate. How about this. You've got the Houston
(21:55):
Texans and the New York Giants on your dar here
as we speak right now, Giants favored by five. That
number is ticked down a little bit. They were favored
a little bit more earlier in the week. The total
is forty one. You might be looking first half, though, crack,
what are you thinking here? I'm looking at the first
half over right now. A lot of shops in Vegas
(22:17):
and uh even MGM twenty under where you won't have
to lay much juice one all five or even there's
a couple of shops that are even over twenty no juice.
So um, I'm looking at the over first half, Houston Giants.
I like playing over more in the first half in
full game. I don't know what happens. Sometimes there you
say the line, I know it opened six down the
(22:39):
four and a half and five. Um. A lot of times,
let's say the Giants are up by two touchdowns. They're
gonna be literally running the ball in the second half.
Euston will be playing come from behind and Houston is
not one of those teams with giant, high power offense
that they can really uh come from behind where if
they're throw an interception or something, Giants are gonna around
the clock out. So I like a situation where you
(23:02):
um at the first half over both teams are playing
at full speed. And uh and by the way, I
don't think not that I'm saying the Giants are gonna
be beaten this team. Houston can easily beat the Giants.
That's my bet against team all year though, and uh,
as we know the season wins, they're gonna beat me
on this year. Um, but I think they're gonna score
some points in the first half today. Yeah, I want
(23:24):
to get your thoughts on the game in Germany. We've
got the Seahawks and Tampa Bay. Tampa is a three
point favorite and the total is forty four and a half.
So I guess both angles here won the game. Are
we just? Are we bullish to a fault because we
thought Tampa was gonna be better than Seattle before the
(23:45):
season began, And we're just that adjusting to Tampa is
not better thus far than Seattle is. Yet Tampa's favored
by three on a neutral on a neutral field. What
do you think about that list? I had word that
you know, Brady wasn't retiring, and I bet some futures
on Tampa that I wish I didn't bet. I got
sick odds to like Dirty five to one or something
(24:06):
I I wish I didn't bet. There. They're just so
out of sort three points. I mean, this game opened
up one. You're telling me it went to three. It's unbelievable.
I see one, two, three shops from one of which MGM, yeah,
this is just seems like too many points. I don't
know what what happens on the travel over there. I
hate these games, by the way, six dirty in the morning,
(24:27):
Vegas time, and and you know, we go on air
at nine on our show and and um, I'm sorry,
we're going We're on air seven seven to ten my time,
so we're on and literally broadcasting the game. You just
don't know the situation. You don't know the travel. I
don't think Germany. You might know this, Brian is is
Germany so much further than England. Probably not right, it's
(24:50):
not too bad. Uh, the traveling one. Yeah, oh, I see,
I see distance wise, yeah it is more. Um well,
I believe depending on which route you take. Yeah, it's
fives okay, I just looked it up five miles, so
that's that's just too bad. That's like cross country here.
Yeah yeah, yeah, not just just like yeah, I U,
(25:11):
I see the difference wise between you. I just one
of the different So it's not it's not like that's
not like they went to their going to Antarctica. I mean,
they're just going to Germany. So I don't know what's
gonna happen here. I I see it open one went down,
that went up to two and a half. I can't
believe that it's actually at three at Let me tell
you it's only two shops now too that I see
(25:31):
at the three, So I'd be inclined to take Seattle.
I just we talked a little off air today guys
on Coach of the Year, and we've talked about how, um,
Nick Sierriani is the big, the big favorite to be
Coach of the Year here. But me and my guys
we were looking at some long shots here for Coach
(25:53):
of the year. Just a sprinkle. Uh, not a peanut,
a half of a peanut on some you know, double
digits uh literally like double digits guys that were coach
of the year. Listen, I'm not petting much, Sirian. He's
probably gonna win. He's he's a minus one fifty. But
I just thought Pete Carroll was good at like ten
to one, twelve to one. Uh, he's done a hell
(26:15):
of a job. But then again, you look at the ball.
I mean there's so many coaches here. You can look
at Roberts Solid, there's so many coaches either have done
unbelievable jobs. But when you have an unbeaten team, um,
which also we looked at, it's funny will the team
go on beaten? Uh, we looked at that also the
odds on that. So they're fun futures. They're actually fun
usually heavyly heavily juice markets though, um do your line
(26:38):
shopping there on those kind of gimmick bets and and
uh so it's it should be fun here. I think
I would have to lean Seattle though here, and I
have to leave Seattle with Pete Carroll. Yeah, it's funny
because I was just thinking about last year, because I
won I bet on Mike Vrabel. Oh wow, and that
I I don't remember what the odds were when I
(27:01):
bet it. It was shorter than that at the time. Yeah,
but I'm just thinking about think about Vrabel and they
were the one seed in the a f C, and
that was a bit more of a surprise than Fleur
with the Packers being the one seed over there with
Green Bay. So you know, maybe if Pete Caroline Seattle
(27:21):
win the NFC West, that's a much bigger surprise than
the Eagules winning the NFC East. So absolutely correct, perfect,
that's a great, great point, great point, absolutely right, nice,
thank you. All right, let's move to another one here, crag.
How about this. Let's go to Minnesota and Buffalo. Buffalo
right now favored by three and a half at bet MGM.
(27:44):
It's trending where Josh Allen most likely will not be
playing quarterback for the Bills in this one. If that's
the case, and we don't know that just yet, where
do you lean in this one? You know, I'm looking
at my I have a live odds screen with the
latest weather and for ation, and both both sources on
the screen for they just put him a questionable but listen,
(28:08):
the better is kind of no. We we get good
information from uh the guys that are on the inside.
And I say inside, I'm talking about like a guy
like that that actually works for like ESPN or even
his life. His whole life is checking and sending out
injury reports with tamillion followers. So, um, he says he's
(28:29):
not playing. So I'm gonna go with him and and
say he's he's not playing. Um, that's schefter, that's what
he says. Or he put a tweet out earlier in
the week this line when he said that literally went
from nine it opened at nine and went down to
the three and a half where it currently sits. Um,
I I probably have to uh not give out anything
(28:52):
on this game now because I always tell these guys this,
and you know, it's it's funny if I'm not in
for the wedding, guys that don't want to be in
for the funeral. So I I don't want to be
in for a line now what has been ironed out
and it's baked in the line. Um, I don't want
to be in. I'm gonna read the latest tweet. Bill's
(29:12):
quarterback Josh Allen nursing an injury to his own owner
collateral ligament. I'm sure I said that wrong and related
nerves officially did not participate in practice today. That was
nineteen hours ago. I'm thinking that that's not going to happen,
and uh, if not, he's not gonna be at as
as fullest. Anyway, Listen, this game dropped from forty eight
and a half down to forties three and a half. Boy,
(29:34):
don't forget now. We we got a team that you know,
with the new court, with the new UH coach over
there in Minnesota. Uh, you know he's allowed to throw
the ball over there, so you've got a powered offense
over there too. I know some guys have been a
little tough on him cousins this year, and uh, I
wouldn't be going under no more at forty and a
half when I could have forty eight. A matter of fact,
(29:55):
if it goes down to some of the key numbers
of forty three, um, that the this and when it's official,
if it's official that Alan's not playing, I mean that
the keiest number in the NFL s thirty seven, but
then the forty one, then forty three. These numbers are
are vital, so uh, you know the easily can go
over by accident, even with backup quarterbacks, when you still
(30:16):
have the Minnesota offense out on the field. Man, there's
so many games I'm interested in, crack, I'll hit on
a couple of them with your rapid fire style. How
about this Arizona at the Rams quarterback questions for both teams?
You have Kyler Murray. He was listed on the injury
report with a hamstring injury. He's considered day to day.
Matthew Stafford is in concussion protocols. So do you even
(30:40):
touch this line without knowing exactly who's gonna be behind
center on Sunday? You know, Um, the Rams are opened
up a three. When that when the rumors came out
about the quarterback, they went down the one even pick
them yesterday, I've seen pick thems. Now it sits at
one and a half. Don't be surprised if if, uh it,
(31:01):
don't be surprised if if if Stafford doesn't play here. So, um,
don't be surprised if he doesn't play. I don't know.
I have a pretty decent injury guy that tells me
a lot of things, and he he I know they
placed him in a concussion protocol, but he said, don't
be surprised if he doesn't play that game and this
game doesn't bounce back up to the three. So, um,
(31:25):
I have no problem taking a lean on this game.
I didn't know you were gonna mention this game, but
you mentioned it. I have no problem taking a lean
on the money line maybe minus a quarter here, with
the intent of maybe even middling a game, which I
usually don't do. But this kind of game. When it's
announced that Stafford will play, you know, pick minus and
plus three. Oh man, that's strong. So in Arizona, I
(31:48):
just can't stand him. I can't stand the team, and
there they just bother me to coach. Team is terrible. Um,
but I hate the ram But the Rams are, oh
my god, they they are maybe out of every year
in the NFL, A team that won the Super Bowl
coming back the next year. It's garbage. They are garbage. Yeah, yeah,
they are. No offensive line, can't run it, just problems
(32:10):
left and right band offensively. How about I want to
get your opinion on the Cowboys and Green Bay. You
talk about problems. Good lord, we've seen green Bay. They've
lost five in a row. Do I even have that right?
Doesn't even seem real. I didn't even know that was right.
Oh my god, let me talk about because yeah, yeah.
(32:33):
So we look at green Bay their last uh yeah,
last five games l l l l L. They've lost
five in a row here, and they are catching five
points at home as the dog against Dallas. A little
bit of sharp money. It looks like on Green Bay
in this one, do you look like a grease fire?
And yet it's been bent down a little bit? It
(32:54):
opened a little book ahead, the look ahead of my
wine moved twelve points in this game. Green Bay was
even huge movement. N Baby was giving seven. Have you
bet at the beginning of the season given six and
a half? It's now five the other way. Oh my god,
I know. And earlier this week I saw it at
five and a half. I don't know if it got
any higher than that, but it's down a bit. Green
(33:14):
Bay a five point home Underdug What do you think
about this? Would you be grabbing the points with Aaron
Rodgers and the dysfunctional Packers here? I'm not betting Dallas
in this game, that's for sure. I'm not laying a
points on the road against Listen, I under listen, I
had Rogers under It was almost a five figure swing
last week. Uh for me, Rogers under yards fourth and two,
(33:37):
last play of his offensive game, and it's the last
past that he completed by the way, throwing literally defender
falls down, got other guys over his shoulders fourth and two.
That costs me ridiculous amount of money. I screamed and yelled.
I never scream and yell, but it was just so
much because I gave it out on a big show,
gave it out on a parlay a platter, which was
all correlated, everything else one on that thing except for this.
(34:01):
Um I I really, I really just hate the way
green bass playing. But I'm not betting. I'm not betting
against this. Uh. You know, crafty veteran here either. He's
missing some some of his key you know, targets that
he had over the years though, and it's it's showing.
It's showing. So without saying it, crack when you're yelling out,
what is the phrase that you go with? You go
(34:23):
with the F word, you go? I just I I
literally had my feet up on my little lazy boy
and I had the prime what's that called the red
zone on and I'm listen I'm watching that, I probably
said darn it or damn it, that's it, damn it
last minute only cause I hate giving out Listen, I
don't even mind losing the money. I hate, hate, hate
(34:47):
giving out losers to people. I just hate it. They
overbet so much, they use there, they use more money
than they should. They they so I'm trying to help them,
but bankroll Management's just not in their game plan. And
when I give out yards under on something that I
was a giant favorite, I'm even Brady. If you were
to bet live odds on on had halftime, will Brady
(35:08):
go under his passing yards the pre flop pregame passing
yards you have to lay about five to about four
to one. No, And and these guys last minute going over,
Oh my god. It just and both guys, both teams
that lose it just it was. It was terrible. It
was terrible. I do love the image of you having
a game go sideways and hating it for all the
reasons that you detailed and just yelling started. I just
(35:33):
love that image of you. Correct. That's awesome. That's all.
It was just cost to people. And if it was
something else that I lost, uh, my own game that
I didn't about. I wouldn't even it wouldn't really phaze me.
But I I I care about the public. I care
about people, and I just want I know the human
condition when it is. I know the way people are
and I know what they gamble and just listen to
(35:54):
I know when I walk in a sports book, what
happens just this morning, it happened this morning, crack. Can
you give me one game? And the word guy used
was very bad. Can you give me one game to
get out for the week? Like, oh, get out for
the week, Like that's not even in my repertoire. But people,
people will be people. I just know the way it
(36:14):
works so um and I couldn't give it. I said, no, buddy,
I can't give you want to get out for a week.
It's all long term. He goes, not just give me something.
I'm not gonna be mad at you, like you know,
and and I honestly don't didn't even give him anything.
I just like gave him a high five. It's a buddy,
I have not so strong. I'm sorry. I mean, you know, yeah,
I can't have a guy depending on getting out for
(36:34):
him and give a dozen This guy's you know, uh
looking for gambos anonymous meeting. I mean, I'm sure you've
heard that, uh handful of times. Maybe you could be
rich if you had a nickel every time someone said
be mad at you, crack. If you give me a loser,
it's okay, I will be mad. Yeah, yeah, yeah, I
told you I had a guy with over a hundred
If I didn't tell you guys on the show, we
should save it for Sunday too. I had a guy
(36:56):
that dragged me in the I told you guys in
the Atlanta at the Bahamar, a hundred thousands of chips
you get handed me and he's like, go bet some
stuff for I don't even know the guy handing me
a hundred thousand dollars, Hey, crack, go bet this for
us here. We'll split it different ones. If it losers,
don't worry about it. I mean, it's not like a
guy handing me a thousand bucks or two hundred dollars,
a hundred thousand. I mean, it's just so sick. People
are sick. Man, I didn't do it. I didn't do it.
(37:21):
Be sure to check out the new looking features in
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use the code countdown for a special offer. Alright, make
sure you check us out on Sunday, Fox Sports Radios.
Countdown to Kickoff, presented by bed MGM. Crack will be
(37:43):
with us, Jeff Schwartz, eight year NFL veteran, will be
with us. I'm Brian No. I'll be with those guys
as well. We'll have live football game in Germany Seahawks
and Bucks going on during the show with jaw set
for the rest of the week. Ten slate, so ten
am to one pm Eastern Time, leading you right up
to kick off. We'll catch you then
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