November 22, 2024 • 28 mins
Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network and host of “The Favorites” podcast, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for week 12 of the NFL slate!
4:45 - Commanders vs Cowboys
7:00 - Bears vs Vikings
10:00 - Cardinals vs Seahawks
12:00 - Packers vs 49ers
14:00 - Rams vs Eagles
16:00 - Chargers vs Ravens
24:00 - Patriots vs Dolphins
26:30 - Colts vs Lions
29:00 - Broncos vs Raiders
31:15 - Chiefs vs Panthers
35:00 - Titans vs Texans
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume.
Speaker 2 (00:03):
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(01:09):
This is a paid advertisement, all right. Sharper Square, co
host of the favorites Chad Milman, all odds provided by DraftKings.
So I had a rant today on my very popular
syndicated radio show Milman.
Speaker 1 (01:26):
Now, no I'm familiar. I've heard it's big.
Speaker 2 (01:29):
People are talking. So my take is what you don't
want to become is the NBA a very strong top,
a soft middle, and ten teams to eleven teams at
the bottom that are unwatchable and non competitive, mostly the
Eastern Conference. Now, and I said, as the NFL has
become more quarterback centric based on a CTE lawsuit and
(01:50):
changes of rules pivoting to the offense, that we are
getting to be a little nbaish in the NFL. A
very strong top of five or six teams, a pretty
soft middle of like the Seahawks, Rams, and nine teams
with two or three wins. Several appear to be soft tanking.
And so I have never been prone to big favorites.
(02:12):
But Detroit last week at minus fourteen felt like one
of the smarter bets. So the Commander's minus ten and
a half. So I locked it in at ten this
week on the Herd. But I think one team's soft
tanking and one team is fighting for a playoff spot.
One team is now on a backup and not a
great backup. The other team has one of the better
(02:32):
rookie quarterbacks in a long time. That team's at home
playing for something. I know it's not sharp sharper square,
but I like the commanders here.
Speaker 3 (02:43):
Well, yeah, it's not sharp. The way you said it,
it's like you're waiting for me to tell you. Yeah,
you know what, Colin. The Wise guys are with you.
This is the week where they've decided they love massive
divisional favorites.
Speaker 1 (03:00):
I'm here to tell you they don't. The Wise Guys
like the Cowboys.
Speaker 3 (03:03):
And part of this is, yes, the number is so big,
but there's also some regression from Jaden Daniels. Right, he
was not very good against the Eagles last week on
Thursday Night.
Speaker 1 (03:20):
In fact, like.
Speaker 3 (03:21):
Since that opening four game stretch where he was completing
eighty percent of his passes, he has yet to complete
more than seventy percent of his passes in a game.
Speaker 1 (03:30):
And so you have to ask yourself, as.
Speaker 3 (03:33):
He started to come back down to earth, has teams
started to figure him out.
Speaker 1 (03:38):
That's really the key to this game.
Speaker 3 (03:40):
And look, you can look at what the Cowboys did
last week and say, okay, were they competitive in the
first half? Yes, did Cooper Rush show some flashes of
being able to be a competitive, too competent quarterback in
the NFL. Certainly more than a lot of other backups
in the league, and frankly a lot of the starters
(04:00):
that we see in the league. But the wise guys
are going to be on the Cowboys here because this
number in a division game is just too big for
a rookie quarterback who's who's steadily declined as the season
has gone on.
Speaker 1 (04:14):
And by the way, the Rookie of.
Speaker 3 (04:16):
The Year ares odds are a great way to look
at that, right, how much is bo Nicks crept up
in behind Jayden Daniels in the Rookie of the Year conversation?
So the market is starting to recognize some of that.
Speaker 2 (04:28):
So I like the Bears plus three and a half
hosting the Vikings. Lost in the blocked kick was that
they thoroughly dominated Green Bay, a well coached team that
they schemed up, layups, easy completions. Chicago looked good, they
just didn't finish well. Minnesota. You always talk about the
luck ratings. You know, I love Sam Darnold, but boy,
(04:51):
they leave a lot of points on the on the floor. God.
I mean that Jacksonville game was maybe that could have
been forty to ten. I like Chicago. I think they
have limitations, but I watched them against Green Bay and
I like their personnel. Caleb played with confidence. The OC
(05:14):
change mattered sharper square.
Speaker 3 (05:17):
So it's sharp ish. Don't forget this line opened at five.
So the wise guys bet at five, they bet at
four and a half, they better at four. They're still
betting it a little bit at three at three and
a half. If it gets any further than this, if
I'm saying to you, you want to publicly announce you
are locking in the Bears at three and a half,
you don't want to say you're on the Bears at three.
(05:39):
You're not wrong about Sam Donald and how lucky he's
been in that game against Tennessee last week. They covered
the spread, but not because of anything Sam Donald did.
He had two hundred and forty six yards passing forty
percent of his yards in the air, came on three passes, right,
So he is not having a very good sort of
(06:01):
second half of the season. He's been very lucky. The
problem for me, and this is where I'm like, I
challenge the wise guy perception on this is they like
the Bears largely because they think that Caleb did.
Speaker 1 (06:17):
What you just said. He looked better.
Speaker 3 (06:19):
He was getting rid of the ball in less than
two and a half seconds. It's the first time he's
been doing that, right, Can they really block against a
Minnesota Vikings defense that is so much more complex than
the Packers Brian Flores destroys rookie quarterbacks and Caleb Williams
this season, when he is facing a team that has
(06:41):
a sack percentage, which is basically the number of defensive
players that end in a sack, When he's facing a
team that is a sack percentage of more than two
point two percent, he's one and six. So you're looking
at a guy who was facing a team that is
a sack percentage of five and a half percent. A
lot of times, it's not even because they're bringing pressure,
(07:02):
they're dropping a lot of guys into covers. They just
confuse the heck out of offensive lines and young quarterbacks.
So to me, that's really the matchup you have to
be careful of. It's why I'm staying away from this game.
I just don't think there's any value in this number.
Too much bad quarterback play, too much good defensive play.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
Cardinals plus one. Now at the Seahawks, I've said this
for the last year. I'm not sure what Seattle is.
I think they're well coached, I'm not sure of it.
Sometimes they're smartly quarterbacks, sometimes they're not. I think they'll
move dk Metcalf at some point in the near future.
He always seems unhappy. I know exactly what Arizona is great.
(07:41):
Coseel said it on my show this week. They don't
outside of Buddha Baker have great defensive personnel. They are
really smartly schemed, and I think this is an offense
that is young in spots that is growing in confidence.
I like teams that have an identity. As the season
goes on, it takes team's time. Even the Patriots at
(08:02):
Julian Edelman has said it took all of our team's
time to find the identity. By week twelve, some teams
still don't have it. Seattle doesn't. Arizona does sharper square.
Speaker 3 (08:12):
So it's sharp, but it's been bouncing around. And I
agree with you about the identity. The Cardinals know exactly
who they are right they are even on defense, they
are still a physical football team. James Connor is a
really violent runner, and they know if they are able
(08:32):
to get him the ball and be effective in the
running game, that makes Kyler that much more effective in
the passing game.
Speaker 1 (08:40):
And they're just going to be the better team.
Speaker 3 (08:41):
Because of those two players, especially against a team like
the Seahawks, which just last week before the game against
the Niners, they released their leading tackler. Like that tells
you how much they don't know who they are. Is like,
they're making pretty big personnel moves coming out of a
buy in advance of a huge division game. And I
would not take yet anything from the Seahawks win against
(09:02):
the Niners. It's another weird sort of circumstance for the
Niners with Nick Bosa going out. I think that impacted
the game tremendously. So Whise guys are with you. The
Cardinals inside, they're you know, pun intended. They're putting the
cards on the table here right because they can take
significant control of that division coming off of by with
(09:23):
a lot of hype on this team right now, so
it's a big step up game for them.
Speaker 2 (09:27):
I like green Bay at home minus one and a half. Now,
if Bosa doesn't play, this defense is very good. It's
just not. I don't know if it's smartly schemed, it's okay.
Fred Warner's numbers are down. Bosa is really the lynchpin
of the defense, and when he's out and he's banged
up consistently, it's not very good. And I say this
(09:47):
about San Francisco. You are what your record is. They're
a five and five football team, and they're not very
good on special teams. They don't get the consistent pass rush.
Rock Purty is fine, he's not the issue. They miss
a deep threat. Now, well, Christian McCaffrey is still not
at one hundred percent on the road. Green Bay the
best kind of team to bet. They won and played poorly.
(10:10):
You can coach them hard. Green Bay's home minus one
and a half. Sharper square, totally square. The wise guys
are all over the Niners here. The number was a
two and a half.
Speaker 3 (10:20):
They were kind of waiting on the Brock Party news
because it leaked out that he had a sore shoulder
and was going to be day to day. He practiced
yesterday and looked fine. So it's really not about Nick Bosa.
Here was about brock Purty and the wise guys. Look
at the Niners. You just mentioned luck. There's no bigger
difference this week in sort of our luck rankings than
(10:43):
the Packers, who are at the top of the luck
rankings with how lucky they've gotten this year in games.
They've won a lot of turnover luck, a lot of
blocked kick luck wrapped up in one specific play last week.
The Niners have had terrible life, terrible turnovers at the
wrong time, terrible injuries at the wrong time in multiple games. Right,
(11:07):
So you're looking at two teams that are really diametrically
opposite in terms of how things have played out for them,
and you ask a lot of wise guys and they'll
say they have this game even on the road at
Green Bay Power Raider to pick. So you're getting a
point and a half of value right now on the Niners.
So that's why the wise guys like them.
Speaker 2 (11:27):
Rams didn't look great and they have no home field advantage.
I like Philly minus two and a half, it'll be
a sixty to seventy percent Philadelphia crowd. The Rams defense
is very interesting but incredibly young, and they're kind of
pedestrian on offense with a quarterback that doesn't move particularly well.
I think rosters it's a mismatch. It'll be actually a
(11:49):
semi home field advantage for Philadelphia. They're hummon. I don't
have to love Nick Siriani. They are hummon. Saquon Barkley
is playing the best football he's ever played in his life.
They're pretty healthy. Eagles minus two and a half. Kind
of surprised at the line. I thought it would be
bigger Sharper square.
Speaker 3 (12:06):
Well, it's not bigger because it keeps bouncing around. There's
no consensus here. We talked about this on the Favorites today,
that there's no real wise guy side. They've come in
on the Rams when it's at three, They've come in
on the Eagles when it's at two and a half,
and that's basically how it's going to go. I'm with you.
I love the Eagles here. I've been on the Rams
(12:28):
the past two weeks. I felt like they were in
good spots against the Dolphins, lost it, in good spots
against the Pats, won it. The offensive line is not
playing well and they're not protecting Matthew Stafford but or
not very well, and the key to this team, and
you and I have talked about this. Sean McVay, for
all of his motion and sort of gadgetry, he likes
to run the ball and that's the strength of this team.
(12:50):
I don't see the Rams being able to run the
ball against the interior defense of the Eagles, who, by
the way, Vic Fangio brilliant defensive coordinator. Since Week five,
the Eagles have gone from twenty seventh in EPA, which
is basically a fancy way of saying how many points
they're expected to give up on defense on a particular play,
(13:10):
to first, like this defense has finally figured out what
he was trying to teach them and they're locked in
In the back of the secondary. Cooper Degene is one
of the top rated cover cornerbacks according to Pro Football Focus.
That should have an impact on what can happen with Cooper,
Cupp and pukuin Nukua.
Speaker 1 (13:29):
So I'm with you. I like the Eagles here. I
think it's a good spot for them.
Speaker 2 (13:33):
Ravens off a wildly emotional Pittsburgh game, go back on
the road. The Chargers, we said this a month ago,
now that they're healthy, are a really good football team.
Special teams offense. They're resourceful on offense, they're physical on defense.
They're getting two and a half. Baltimore does not have
like a Pittsburgh, Green Bay, San Francisco crowd, so it
(13:56):
will be mostly a Chargers fan base at home again.
Chargers come off a win, feeling good about themselves and comfortable.
The Ravens come off a physical, emotional rivalry game. I
like the Chargers plus two and a half. Sharper Square.
Speaker 3 (14:13):
Two and a half is not where the wise guys
like it. They loved it at three. I think if
you're playing at two and a half, you're kind of
tempting fate, right, you would expect this to be a
field goal game. We both love the Chargers. We've talked
about how much we love the Chargers. We've played the
Chargers in multiple spots this season. Defensively they're great, but
(14:36):
who have they really played. We saw a little bit
of that Achilles heel against the Bengals when the Bengals
did such a good job coming back and probably should
have won that game if not for some really some
bad miss kicks and a couple of bad flags, and
the Chargers kind of blew it right. So can the
Chargers do to the Ravens what other teams have done
all year, which has beat them in the second half
(14:58):
through the air? The talent I think where everyone is
seeing what's going on with lab McConkie and are excited
about him is a connection with Justin Herbert. But the
Chargers have been terrible in the second half this year,
so you're gonna have to expect them to do something
they haven't done this year in the second half, which
is convert, and you're gonna have to expect them to
do it and basically win the game because you're betting
(15:20):
less than the field goal.
Speaker 1 (15:21):
So at two and a half, it's just not very sure.
Speaker 2 (15:26):
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Speaker 2 (17:06):
I like the Patriots plus seven and a half as
Dolphins divisional rivalry game. I think. I think Drake May
is finding himself. Miami is one of those teams where
you're never quite sure exactly what you get. They blow
more opportunities than they should. I think Miami wins this game.
But this just feels like an obvious sharp side New
(17:26):
England playing hard. People playing for stuff here, young team,
young coach, young quarterback. They're not playing like they want
the number one pick, nor do they need it because
they have their quarterback. They're not They're not soft tanking
for Shador Sanders. You know they have to upgrade positions
defensive end and wide receiver, and it's a defensive end
(17:48):
wide receiver draft. I like the Patriots to play hard,
keep it close, Sharper square.
Speaker 3 (17:53):
Yeah, this is an eye test game where at seven
and a half, the wise guys like the Patriots.
Speaker 1 (17:58):
There's no doubt about it.
Speaker 3 (18:00):
And if you've watched the Dolphins the past two weeks.
They were fine against the Rams. Their defensive line played great,
they got to Matthew Stafford, but the Rams gave that
game away five field goals. They couldn't score touchdowns, they
were missing snaps, they were thrown tipped interceptions.
Speaker 1 (18:18):
They did not play well.
Speaker 3 (18:19):
And if you look at the game against the Raiders
last week, the Dolphins were only up by five points
with three and a half minutes left, there was a
miracle defensive pass interference against the Raiders. They gave the
Dolphins the ball and converted a third down for them
instead of getting the Raiders the ball back, and that
was sort of the end of the game, and they
(18:39):
ended up scoring thirty five points or whatever it is.
Speaker 1 (18:42):
But they were up by five points.
Speaker 3 (18:45):
The Raiders are going to cover that game, and if
they'd gotten the ball back, potentially won that game. So
I just haven't been impressed with the Dolphins, whereas I
have been really impressed with Drake may He's just a gamer.
And I think the biggest problem for this Patriots team
is Gerard Mayo is such a conservative play caller. It
(19:06):
doesn't seem to really know how to run the math.
Yet when you're going for two, should you go for one,
when do you want to go forward?
Speaker 1 (19:14):
And fourth down?
Speaker 3 (19:16):
He's coaching like a defensive coordinator in key sort of
pivot spots for the game, and that's where the biggest
challenge comes in for the Patriots to cover.
Speaker 1 (19:27):
But the wise guys are with you. They like the
seven and a half.
Speaker 2 (19:30):
I like the Colts at home getting seven and a half. Lions.
Remember they have to play on Thanksgiving, and they're you know,
they're playing perfect football. The Colts. I thought Anthony Richardson
looked as good as he has ever looked. I think
they've kind of figured out what he is. Some of
that is the Jets aren't very good, but I've been
saying this for a month. I like the Colts personnel.
(19:53):
I really do like both of their lines, especially their
O line. They've got playmakers on the outside. I could
see the Lions going to head to Thanksgiving. They're blowing
people out. I'm going to take the Colts plus seven
and a half at home.
Speaker 1 (20:05):
Sharper Square couldn't be sharper sharpest player of the week.
Speaker 3 (20:08):
Like the Colts are one of those teams where a
lot of wise guys when they look at this, certainly
how I think about it when I'm deciding if I
want to bet one of these ugly dogs, is do
I believe this is sort of the right side from
a number perspective. Is the team they are playing against
(20:28):
going to have an overinflated number because they're public because
of what they've been doing. The answer to that is, yes,
nobody is winning at a better clip than the Lions.
They are the odds on favorite to win the Super Bowl.
That number is naturally going to be bigger. That's number one.
Speaker 1 (20:44):
Great. I like the Colts here. Number two.
Speaker 3 (20:46):
Do I believe there's a part of the game where
they can be dominant. You just mentioned their offensive line,
best run blocking unit in the NFL. Jonathan Taylor has
been playing great, and I think with Anthony Richardson, I
think he played great last week. I think with his
ability to run against a defensive front that cannot get
pressure since Aden Hutchinson, they just can't. Every stat will
(21:07):
show you they are not a team that's getting a
lot of pressure.
Speaker 1 (21:10):
So that's number two. I'd like that number three.
Speaker 3 (21:13):
There are a ton of trends that back this up,
and sometimes trends can be self fulfilling, but in this case,
like you got teams who are road favorites the game
after being a double digit favorite in any location. They've
had significant against the spread struggles the past decade, forty
three percent against the spread. Teams that are averaging thirty
(21:37):
three plus points in a ninety percent win percentage those
teams in this scenario thirty two percent against the spread,
and if they are coming off a double digit win,
twenty five percent against the spread. There's a lot of
matchup reasons. There's a lot of inflation reasons, then there's
trend reasons.
Speaker 1 (21:54):
So checks out all the boxes.
Speaker 2 (21:57):
Okay, a game I want you to talk. Be into
Broncos minus six at the Raiders. I know it's a
divisional rivalry, but when you have young quarterbacks and young
teams growing in confidence, sometimes the markets behind them. Denver's
a really interesting team right now, so we know their
defense has been exceptional. Bon Nicks is making leaps like big,
(22:20):
no turnovers, moving well. Sean Payton texts me this week
and he's like, you know, you, guys, his arm is
way better than anybody understands. Greg co cell echoed that
this week he's like he's making NFL elite throws down
the middle. Of the field, hard deep throws. Arm is
not an issue. Talk me into it. I think the
(22:42):
Broncos are the side for me. Sharper square.
Speaker 3 (22:45):
Yeah, that's some of the feedback I've been getting to
this week is Wise guys continue to be really impressed
with the Broncos and feel like they have been emboldened
by that Chiefs loss. And we saw this week right
like the Wise guys, they were coming all over on
the on the Broncos. They loved the Broncos in that
(23:07):
game and that and it matched right like it was
a Falcons team that was coming in and they were
supposed to be a good team and the Broncos blew
them out of the water. Similarly, they're feeling the same
way this week about about the Raiders. I think the
number's gotten too high. It's at six, and that's because
the Wise guys have been betting it up. There's no
(23:27):
matchup reason to like the Raiders. Like their terrible team,
they seem to keep themselves in every game until Gardner
Minshew has some ridiculous turnover. He's got four lost fumbles
this year, which is I think second in the NFL.
He's got I think nine interceptions, which is third in
(23:48):
the NFL thirteen total turnovers. Like that's the script for
this game is Gardner Minshew's down by twelve points digit something,
has a chance to put his team and get him
through the back door, and he does something that costs
his team the game. And you know, he loses the ball,
(24:09):
he fumbles whatever. So you're probably on the right side,
but I think you've lost the value in the number.
Speaker 2 (24:15):
Okay, and finally give me a game I miss. I
like Kansas City off a loss minus eleven at Carolina,
but I'll stay away. But I think generally, you know,
Andy Reid doesn't lose. Patrick Mahomes doesn't lose, even though
he's not a great big favorite. Carolina is a bad team,
and Kansas City's pissed off, so I kind of like him.
But give me something else.
Speaker 3 (24:34):
Well, look, it's Kansas City and Carolina. I hate to say,
Like the wise guys like Carolina here. They like what
they've seen from Bryce Young in the past two weeks
that he played. They like the idea that this is
also a really good run blocking unit. And while the
Chiefs run blocking run stopping defense is elite, there's still
(24:56):
an opportunity here for the Chiefs, and if they aren't
running a very well, they have liked what they've seen.
The wise guys have liked what they've seen from Bryce
Young and his ability to find the right receivers, especially
against the chief secondary that.
Speaker 1 (25:08):
Isn't very good.
Speaker 3 (25:09):
You got to go on the road win is a
double digit favorite. It's just a bad spot and historically
now this year, double digit favorites are rushing like it's been.
Speaker 2 (25:24):
That's my take. At the top of this podcast was
the separate we're getting to be the NBA. The difference
between Denver and Orlando is significant.
Speaker 3 (25:35):
Yes, So let me give you a couple of stats
here then if you're going to be talking about this,
because it helps illuminate it a little bit.
Speaker 1 (25:43):
So double digit favorites are five.
Speaker 3 (25:46):
To oh this year, so the first time they've been undefeated,
not against the spread, just undefeated this late in the
year and twenty seasons. Only the second time in the
past forty seasons. Here's how extraordinary this is. Though they
are undefeated against the spread. For that, you have to
go back to nineteen fifty that is the last time
(26:07):
double digit favorites were undefeated against the spread through eleven weeks.
Let me put this in context for you, Colin. The
point spread was less than a decade old in nineteen fifty.
It was invented in like nineteen forty one by a
commodities trader in Chicago. So the last time there was
(26:29):
this kind of double digit cover streak was nineteen fifty
and the spread was an infant. It barely existed. But
that's how unprecedented this is.
Speaker 2 (26:42):
People were betting pith helmets and bales of hay.
Speaker 3 (26:44):
I mean, that was just exactly and Wooden Nichols, you know, Chad,
Oh yeah, So they're going to be on this. So
but the point is the wise guys are going to
be on the Panthers. They're going to bet against the trend.
Same thing with the Titans, by the way, they don't
love it, but they're going to bet against how bad
the Titans have been against the spread. They're going to
(27:06):
bet against the inflation you get from the Texans beating
the Cowboys in prime time. They haven't been impressed. We
see j Stroud this year. They do like the Titans
defense talk about unlucky. The Titans seem to shoot themselves
in the foot every week. So if they can get
one of these breaks. That's the difference in a game
where the number is more than a touchdown.
Speaker 2 (27:25):
Chad Melman, good to you, Good see anybody.
Speaker 1 (27:28):
Good to see you too, brother.
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(01:09):
This is a paid advertisement, all right. Sharper Square, co
host of the favorites Chad Milman, all odds provided by DraftKings.
So I had a rant today on my very popular
syndicated radio show Milman.
Speaker 1 (01:26):
Now, no I'm familiar. I've heard it's big.
Speaker 2 (01:29):
People are talking. So my take is what you don't
want to become is the NBA a very strong top,
a soft middle, and ten teams to eleven teams at
the bottom that are unwatchable and non competitive, mostly the
Eastern Conference. Now, and I said, as the NFL has
become more quarterback centric based on a CTE lawsuit and
(01:50):
changes of rules pivoting to the offense, that we are
getting to be a little nbaish in the NFL. A
very strong top of five or six teams, a pretty
soft middle of like the Seahawks, Rams, and nine teams
with two or three wins. Several appear to be soft tanking.
And so I have never been prone to big favorites.
(02:12):
But Detroit last week at minus fourteen felt like one
of the smarter bets. So the Commander's minus ten and
a half. So I locked it in at ten this
week on the Herd. But I think one team's soft
tanking and one team is fighting for a playoff spot.
One team is now on a backup and not a
great backup. The other team has one of the better
(02:32):
rookie quarterbacks in a long time. That team's at home
playing for something. I know it's not sharp sharper square,
but I like the commanders here.
Speaker 3 (02:43):
Well, yeah, it's not sharp. The way you said it,
it's like you're waiting for me to tell you. Yeah,
you know what, Colin. The Wise guys are with you.
This is the week where they've decided they love massive
divisional favorites.
Speaker 1 (03:00):
I'm here to tell you they don't. The Wise Guys
like the Cowboys.
Speaker 3 (03:03):
And part of this is, yes, the number is so big,
but there's also some regression from Jaden Daniels. Right, he
was not very good against the Eagles last week on
Thursday Night.
Speaker 1 (03:20):
In fact, like.
Speaker 3 (03:21):
Since that opening four game stretch where he was completing
eighty percent of his passes, he has yet to complete
more than seventy percent of his passes in a game.
Speaker 1 (03:30):
And so you have to ask yourself, as.
Speaker 3 (03:33):
He started to come back down to earth, has teams
started to figure him out.
Speaker 1 (03:38):
That's really the key to this game.
Speaker 3 (03:40):
And look, you can look at what the Cowboys did
last week and say, okay, were they competitive in the
first half? Yes, did Cooper Rush show some flashes of
being able to be a competitive, too competent quarterback in
the NFL. Certainly more than a lot of other backups
in the league, and frankly a lot of the starters
(04:00):
that we see in the league. But the wise guys
are going to be on the Cowboys here because this
number in a division game is just too big for
a rookie quarterback who's who's steadily declined as the season
has gone on.
Speaker 1 (04:14):
And by the way, the Rookie of.
Speaker 3 (04:16):
The Year ares odds are a great way to look
at that, right, how much is bo Nicks crept up
in behind Jayden Daniels in the Rookie of the Year conversation?
So the market is starting to recognize some of that.
Speaker 2 (04:28):
So I like the Bears plus three and a half
hosting the Vikings. Lost in the blocked kick was that
they thoroughly dominated Green Bay, a well coached team that
they schemed up, layups, easy completions. Chicago looked good, they
just didn't finish well. Minnesota. You always talk about the
luck ratings. You know, I love Sam Darnold, but boy,
(04:51):
they leave a lot of points on the on the floor. God.
I mean that Jacksonville game was maybe that could have
been forty to ten. I like Chicago. I think they
have limitations, but I watched them against Green Bay and
I like their personnel. Caleb played with confidence. The OC
(05:14):
change mattered sharper square.
Speaker 3 (05:17):
So it's sharp ish. Don't forget this line opened at five.
So the wise guys bet at five, they bet at
four and a half, they better at four. They're still
betting it a little bit at three at three and
a half. If it gets any further than this, if
I'm saying to you, you want to publicly announce you
are locking in the Bears at three and a half,
you don't want to say you're on the Bears at three.
(05:39):
You're not wrong about Sam Donald and how lucky he's
been in that game against Tennessee last week. They covered
the spread, but not because of anything Sam Donald did.
He had two hundred and forty six yards passing forty
percent of his yards in the air, came on three passes, right,
So he is not having a very good sort of
(06:01):
second half of the season. He's been very lucky. The
problem for me, and this is where I'm like, I
challenge the wise guy perception on this is they like
the Bears largely because they think that Caleb did.
Speaker 1 (06:17):
What you just said. He looked better.
Speaker 3 (06:19):
He was getting rid of the ball in less than
two and a half seconds. It's the first time he's
been doing that, right, Can they really block against a
Minnesota Vikings defense that is so much more complex than
the Packers Brian Flores destroys rookie quarterbacks and Caleb Williams
this season, when he is facing a team that has
(06:41):
a sack percentage, which is basically the number of defensive
players that end in a sack, When he's facing a
team that is a sack percentage of more than two
point two percent, he's one and six. So you're looking
at a guy who was facing a team that is
a sack percentage of five and a half percent. A
lot of times, it's not even because they're bringing pressure,
(07:02):
they're dropping a lot of guys into covers. They just
confuse the heck out of offensive lines and young quarterbacks.
So to me, that's really the matchup you have to
be careful of. It's why I'm staying away from this game.
I just don't think there's any value in this number.
Too much bad quarterback play, too much good defensive play.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
Cardinals plus one. Now at the Seahawks, I've said this
for the last year. I'm not sure what Seattle is.
I think they're well coached, I'm not sure of it.
Sometimes they're smartly quarterbacks, sometimes they're not. I think they'll
move dk Metcalf at some point in the near future.
He always seems unhappy. I know exactly what Arizona is great.
(07:41):
Coseel said it on my show this week. They don't
outside of Buddha Baker have great defensive personnel. They are
really smartly schemed, and I think this is an offense
that is young in spots that is growing in confidence.
I like teams that have an identity. As the season
goes on, it takes team's time. Even the Patriots at
(08:02):
Julian Edelman has said it took all of our team's
time to find the identity. By week twelve, some teams
still don't have it. Seattle doesn't. Arizona does sharper square.
Speaker 3 (08:12):
So it's sharp, but it's been bouncing around. And I
agree with you about the identity. The Cardinals know exactly
who they are right they are even on defense, they
are still a physical football team. James Connor is a
really violent runner, and they know if they are able
(08:32):
to get him the ball and be effective in the
running game, that makes Kyler that much more effective in
the passing game.
Speaker 1 (08:40):
And they're just going to be the better team.
Speaker 3 (08:41):
Because of those two players, especially against a team like
the Seahawks, which just last week before the game against
the Niners, they released their leading tackler. Like that tells
you how much they don't know who they are. Is like,
they're making pretty big personnel moves coming out of a
buy in advance of a huge division game. And I
would not take yet anything from the Seahawks win against
(09:02):
the Niners. It's another weird sort of circumstance for the
Niners with Nick Bosa going out. I think that impacted
the game tremendously. So Whise guys are with you. The
Cardinals inside, they're you know, pun intended. They're putting the
cards on the table here right because they can take
significant control of that division coming off of by with
(09:23):
a lot of hype on this team right now, so
it's a big step up game for them.
Speaker 2 (09:27):
I like green Bay at home minus one and a half. Now,
if Bosa doesn't play, this defense is very good. It's
just not. I don't know if it's smartly schemed, it's okay.
Fred Warner's numbers are down. Bosa is really the lynchpin
of the defense, and when he's out and he's banged
up consistently, it's not very good. And I say this
(09:47):
about San Francisco. You are what your record is. They're
a five and five football team, and they're not very
good on special teams. They don't get the consistent pass rush.
Rock Purty is fine, he's not the issue. They miss
a deep threat. Now, well, Christian McCaffrey is still not
at one hundred percent on the road. Green Bay the
best kind of team to bet. They won and played poorly.
(10:10):
You can coach them hard. Green Bay's home minus one
and a half. Sharper square, totally square. The wise guys
are all over the Niners here. The number was a
two and a half.
Speaker 3 (10:20):
They were kind of waiting on the Brock Party news
because it leaked out that he had a sore shoulder
and was going to be day to day. He practiced
yesterday and looked fine. So it's really not about Nick Bosa.
Here was about brock Purty and the wise guys. Look
at the Niners. You just mentioned luck. There's no bigger
difference this week in sort of our luck rankings than
(10:43):
the Packers, who are at the top of the luck
rankings with how lucky they've gotten this year in games.
They've won a lot of turnover luck, a lot of
blocked kick luck wrapped up in one specific play last week.
The Niners have had terrible life, terrible turnovers at the
wrong time, terrible injuries at the wrong time in multiple games. Right,
(11:07):
So you're looking at two teams that are really diametrically
opposite in terms of how things have played out for them,
and you ask a lot of wise guys and they'll
say they have this game even on the road at
Green Bay Power Raider to pick. So you're getting a
point and a half of value right now on the Niners.
So that's why the wise guys like them.
Speaker 2 (11:27):
Rams didn't look great and they have no home field advantage.
I like Philly minus two and a half, it'll be
a sixty to seventy percent Philadelphia crowd. The Rams defense
is very interesting but incredibly young, and they're kind of
pedestrian on offense with a quarterback that doesn't move particularly well.
I think rosters it's a mismatch. It'll be actually a
(11:49):
semi home field advantage for Philadelphia. They're hummon. I don't
have to love Nick Siriani. They are hummon. Saquon Barkley
is playing the best football he's ever played in his life.
They're pretty healthy. Eagles minus two and a half. Kind
of surprised at the line. I thought it would be
bigger Sharper square.
Speaker 3 (12:06):
Well, it's not bigger because it keeps bouncing around. There's
no consensus here. We talked about this on the Favorites today,
that there's no real wise guy side. They've come in
on the Rams when it's at three, They've come in
on the Eagles when it's at two and a half,
and that's basically how it's going to go. I'm with you.
I love the Eagles here. I've been on the Rams
(12:28):
the past two weeks. I felt like they were in
good spots against the Dolphins, lost it, in good spots
against the Pats, won it. The offensive line is not
playing well and they're not protecting Matthew Stafford but or
not very well, and the key to this team, and
you and I have talked about this. Sean McVay, for
all of his motion and sort of gadgetry, he likes
to run the ball and that's the strength of this team.
(12:50):
I don't see the Rams being able to run the
ball against the interior defense of the Eagles, who, by
the way, Vic Fangio brilliant defensive coordinator. Since Week five,
the Eagles have gone from twenty seventh in EPA, which
is basically a fancy way of saying how many points
they're expected to give up on defense on a particular play,
(13:10):
to first, like this defense has finally figured out what
he was trying to teach them and they're locked in
In the back of the secondary. Cooper Degene is one
of the top rated cover cornerbacks according to Pro Football Focus.
That should have an impact on what can happen with Cooper,
Cupp and pukuin Nukua.
Speaker 1 (13:29):
So I'm with you. I like the Eagles here. I
think it's a good spot for them.
Speaker 2 (13:33):
Ravens off a wildly emotional Pittsburgh game, go back on
the road. The Chargers, we said this a month ago,
now that they're healthy, are a really good football team.
Special teams offense. They're resourceful on offense, they're physical on defense.
They're getting two and a half. Baltimore does not have
like a Pittsburgh, Green Bay, San Francisco crowd, so it
(13:56):
will be mostly a Chargers fan base at home again.
Chargers come off a win, feeling good about themselves and comfortable.
The Ravens come off a physical, emotional rivalry game. I
like the Chargers plus two and a half. Sharper Square.
Speaker 3 (14:13):
Two and a half is not where the wise guys
like it. They loved it at three. I think if
you're playing at two and a half, you're kind of
tempting fate, right, you would expect this to be a
field goal game. We both love the Chargers. We've talked
about how much we love the Chargers. We've played the
Chargers in multiple spots this season. Defensively they're great, but
(14:36):
who have they really played. We saw a little bit
of that Achilles heel against the Bengals when the Bengals
did such a good job coming back and probably should
have won that game if not for some really some
bad miss kicks and a couple of bad flags, and
the Chargers kind of blew it right. So can the
Chargers do to the Ravens what other teams have done
all year, which has beat them in the second half
(14:58):
through the air? The talent I think where everyone is
seeing what's going on with lab McConkie and are excited
about him is a connection with Justin Herbert. But the
Chargers have been terrible in the second half this year,
so you're gonna have to expect them to do something
they haven't done this year in the second half, which
is convert, and you're gonna have to expect them to
do it and basically win the game because you're betting
(15:20):
less than the field goal.
Speaker 1 (15:21):
So at two and a half, it's just not very sure.
Speaker 2 (15:26):
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Speaker 2 (17:06):
I like the Patriots plus seven and a half as
Dolphins divisional rivalry game. I think. I think Drake May
is finding himself. Miami is one of those teams where
you're never quite sure exactly what you get. They blow
more opportunities than they should. I think Miami wins this game.
But this just feels like an obvious sharp side New
(17:26):
England playing hard. People playing for stuff here, young team,
young coach, young quarterback. They're not playing like they want
the number one pick, nor do they need it because
they have their quarterback. They're not They're not soft tanking
for Shador Sanders. You know they have to upgrade positions
defensive end and wide receiver, and it's a defensive end
(17:48):
wide receiver draft. I like the Patriots to play hard,
keep it close, Sharper square.
Speaker 3 (17:53):
Yeah, this is an eye test game where at seven
and a half, the wise guys like the Patriots.
Speaker 1 (17:58):
There's no doubt about it.
Speaker 3 (18:00):
And if you've watched the Dolphins the past two weeks.
They were fine against the Rams. Their defensive line played great,
they got to Matthew Stafford, but the Rams gave that
game away five field goals. They couldn't score touchdowns, they
were missing snaps, they were thrown tipped interceptions.
Speaker 1 (18:18):
They did not play well.
Speaker 3 (18:19):
And if you look at the game against the Raiders
last week, the Dolphins were only up by five points
with three and a half minutes left, there was a
miracle defensive pass interference against the Raiders. They gave the
Dolphins the ball and converted a third down for them
instead of getting the Raiders the ball back, and that
was sort of the end of the game, and they
(18:39):
ended up scoring thirty five points or whatever it is.
Speaker 1 (18:42):
But they were up by five points.
Speaker 3 (18:45):
The Raiders are going to cover that game, and if
they'd gotten the ball back, potentially won that game. So
I just haven't been impressed with the Dolphins, whereas I
have been really impressed with Drake may He's just a gamer.
And I think the biggest problem for this Patriots team
is Gerard Mayo is such a conservative play caller. It
(19:06):
doesn't seem to really know how to run the math.
Yet when you're going for two, should you go for one,
when do you want to go forward?
Speaker 1 (19:14):
And fourth down?
Speaker 3 (19:16):
He's coaching like a defensive coordinator in key sort of
pivot spots for the game, and that's where the biggest
challenge comes in for the Patriots to cover.
Speaker 1 (19:27):
But the wise guys are with you. They like the
seven and a half.
Speaker 2 (19:30):
I like the Colts at home getting seven and a half. Lions.
Remember they have to play on Thanksgiving, and they're you know,
they're playing perfect football. The Colts. I thought Anthony Richardson
looked as good as he has ever looked. I think
they've kind of figured out what he is. Some of
that is the Jets aren't very good, but I've been
saying this for a month. I like the Colts personnel.
(19:53):
I really do like both of their lines, especially their
O line. They've got playmakers on the outside. I could
see the Lions going to head to Thanksgiving. They're blowing
people out. I'm going to take the Colts plus seven
and a half at home.
Speaker 1 (20:05):
Sharper Square couldn't be sharper sharpest player of the week.
Speaker 3 (20:08):
Like the Colts are one of those teams where a
lot of wise guys when they look at this, certainly
how I think about it when I'm deciding if I
want to bet one of these ugly dogs, is do
I believe this is sort of the right side from
a number perspective. Is the team they are playing against
(20:28):
going to have an overinflated number because they're public because
of what they've been doing. The answer to that is, yes,
nobody is winning at a better clip than the Lions.
They are the odds on favorite to win the Super Bowl.
That number is naturally going to be bigger. That's number one.
Speaker 1 (20:44):
Great. I like the Colts here. Number two.
Speaker 3 (20:46):
Do I believe there's a part of the game where
they can be dominant. You just mentioned their offensive line,
best run blocking unit in the NFL. Jonathan Taylor has
been playing great, and I think with Anthony Richardson, I
think he played great last week. I think with his
ability to run against a defensive front that cannot get
pressure since Aden Hutchinson, they just can't. Every stat will
(21:07):
show you they are not a team that's getting a
lot of pressure.
Speaker 1 (21:10):
So that's number two. I'd like that number three.
Speaker 3 (21:13):
There are a ton of trends that back this up,
and sometimes trends can be self fulfilling, but in this case,
like you got teams who are road favorites the game
after being a double digit favorite in any location. They've
had significant against the spread struggles the past decade, forty
three percent against the spread. Teams that are averaging thirty
(21:37):
three plus points in a ninety percent win percentage those
teams in this scenario thirty two percent against the spread,
and if they are coming off a double digit win,
twenty five percent against the spread. There's a lot of
matchup reasons. There's a lot of inflation reasons, then there's
trend reasons.
Speaker 1 (21:54):
So checks out all the boxes.
Speaker 2 (21:57):
Okay, a game I want you to talk. Be into
Broncos minus six at the Raiders. I know it's a
divisional rivalry, but when you have young quarterbacks and young
teams growing in confidence, sometimes the markets behind them. Denver's
a really interesting team right now, so we know their
defense has been exceptional. Bon Nicks is making leaps like big,
(22:20):
no turnovers, moving well. Sean Payton texts me this week
and he's like, you know, you, guys, his arm is
way better than anybody understands. Greg co cell echoed that
this week he's like he's making NFL elite throws down
the middle. Of the field, hard deep throws. Arm is
not an issue. Talk me into it. I think the
(22:42):
Broncos are the side for me. Sharper square.
Speaker 3 (22:45):
Yeah, that's some of the feedback I've been getting to
this week is Wise guys continue to be really impressed
with the Broncos and feel like they have been emboldened
by that Chiefs loss. And we saw this week right
like the Wise guys, they were coming all over on
the on the Broncos. They loved the Broncos in that
(23:07):
game and that and it matched right like it was
a Falcons team that was coming in and they were
supposed to be a good team and the Broncos blew
them out of the water. Similarly, they're feeling the same
way this week about about the Raiders. I think the
number's gotten too high. It's at six, and that's because
the Wise guys have been betting it up. There's no
(23:27):
matchup reason to like the Raiders. Like their terrible team,
they seem to keep themselves in every game until Gardner
Minshew has some ridiculous turnover. He's got four lost fumbles
this year, which is I think second in the NFL.
He's got I think nine interceptions, which is third in
(23:48):
the NFL thirteen total turnovers. Like that's the script for
this game is Gardner Minshew's down by twelve points digit something,
has a chance to put his team and get him
through the back door, and he does something that costs
his team the game. And you know, he loses the ball,
(24:09):
he fumbles whatever. So you're probably on the right side,
but I think you've lost the value in the number.
Speaker 2 (24:15):
Okay, and finally give me a game I miss. I
like Kansas City off a loss minus eleven at Carolina,
but I'll stay away. But I think generally, you know,
Andy Reid doesn't lose. Patrick Mahomes doesn't lose, even though
he's not a great big favorite. Carolina is a bad team,
and Kansas City's pissed off, so I kind of like him.
But give me something else.
Speaker 3 (24:34):
Well, look, it's Kansas City and Carolina. I hate to say,
Like the wise guys like Carolina here. They like what
they've seen from Bryce Young in the past two weeks
that he played. They like the idea that this is
also a really good run blocking unit. And while the
Chiefs run blocking run stopping defense is elite, there's still
(24:56):
an opportunity here for the Chiefs, and if they aren't
running a very well, they have liked what they've seen.
The wise guys have liked what they've seen from Bryce
Young and his ability to find the right receivers, especially
against the chief secondary that.
Speaker 1 (25:08):
Isn't very good.
Speaker 3 (25:09):
You got to go on the road win is a
double digit favorite. It's just a bad spot and historically
now this year, double digit favorites are rushing like it's been.
Speaker 2 (25:24):
That's my take. At the top of this podcast was
the separate we're getting to be the NBA. The difference
between Denver and Orlando is significant.
Speaker 3 (25:35):
Yes, So let me give you a couple of stats
here then if you're going to be talking about this,
because it helps illuminate it a little bit.
Speaker 1 (25:43):
So double digit favorites are five.
Speaker 3 (25:46):
To oh this year, so the first time they've been undefeated,
not against the spread, just undefeated this late in the
year and twenty seasons. Only the second time in the
past forty seasons. Here's how extraordinary this is. Though they
are undefeated against the spread. For that, you have to
go back to nineteen fifty that is the last time
(26:07):
double digit favorites were undefeated against the spread through eleven weeks.
Let me put this in context for you, Colin. The
point spread was less than a decade old in nineteen fifty.
It was invented in like nineteen forty one by a
commodities trader in Chicago. So the last time there was
(26:29):
this kind of double digit cover streak was nineteen fifty
and the spread was an infant. It barely existed. But
that's how unprecedented this is.
Speaker 2 (26:42):
People were betting pith helmets and bales of hay.
Speaker 3 (26:44):
I mean, that was just exactly and Wooden Nichols, you know, Chad,
Oh yeah, So they're going to be on this. So
but the point is the wise guys are going to
be on the Panthers. They're going to bet against the trend.
Same thing with the Titans, by the way, they don't
love it, but they're going to bet against how bad
the Titans have been against the spread. They're going to
(27:06):
bet against the inflation you get from the Texans beating
the Cowboys in prime time. They haven't been impressed. We
see j Stroud this year. They do like the Titans
defense talk about unlucky. The Titans seem to shoot themselves
in the foot every week. So if they can get
one of these breaks. That's the difference in a game
where the number is more than a touchdown.
Speaker 2 (27:25):
Chad Melman, good to you, Good see anybody.
Speaker 1 (27:28):
Good to see you too, brother.
Speaker 2 (27:31):
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