December 22, 2024 • 48 mins
The holiday season enters overdrive, but it's more than just sleigh bells, gingerbread and the moon shining on the breast of the new-fallen snow. This Sunday was about continued domination from favorites, the Raiders moving out of the league's basement, and an electrifying victory by the Washington Commanders. Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter faithfully return to discuss all things betting for NFL Week 16, as they take accountability before Sunday Night Football kicks off in Big D. Plus, we get their early looks at Week 17 matchups.
And for new listeners, The Favorites $100K Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest is underway! Presented by bet365, this totally free-to-play contest has over $100,000 in cash prizes up for grabs to our listeners this NFL season. Just visit Favorites.ActionNetwork.com to sign up for free and make your picks today. #Volume #Herd
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
Live from our Tommy John Home Studios. I am Chad
Moment of the Action Network. This is our Sunday night episode.
We will review the faves five picks we put into
the contest. We're going to dissect why we left some
(00:32):
games out. We're going to preview the early lines we
already like for a full week of NFL football in
week seventeen games Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday. I'm joined as
always by my cost, my companion, my campadre, my BFF
(00:52):
professional Better Assignment Hunter.
Speaker 2 (00:53):
Hello, so a man, Chad, How are we doing, dude?
Speaker 1 (00:58):
We are two and two on the day. We have
the Cowboys plus four and a half tonight. This is
the week where we looked in the face of the
gambling gods and the trends of Favorites dominating, and we said,
screw you. Good teams with great quarterbacks, we will not
(01:22):
be intimidated. We didn't like every dog today, we did
like some. After the early window there had been on Sunday,
there had been ten NFL games played, so the Thursday,
the Saturday Sunday Favorites had won eight of them. Simon,
It's an unbelievable trend. And while we did have a
(01:44):
favorite in our top five today, somehow it's the only
favorite that didn't cover, But we were on both underdogs
that covered in the early window. This may be the
most exciting post games review we've ever had. Like two
games we were really sure of, gave us all the
(02:06):
reasons to feel unsure, yet delivered two games we were
least sure of.
Speaker 3 (02:11):
The one game we.
Speaker 1 (02:12):
Loved for every reason except for one did not go
our way for exactly the reason we feared.
Speaker 3 (02:21):
We're going to break that down.
Speaker 1 (02:22):
We're going to play a little clip that shows how
much we were foreshadowing our fears. Amazing Topsy Turvy bet
the number early part of the day, we will get
to it. Programming note for this upcoming week holiday week
Christmas on Wednesday, our live episode of the Favorites on
Tuesday is going to be at eleven a m.
Speaker 3 (02:46):
Eastern.
Speaker 1 (02:46):
We're going to go early because Tuesday afternoon evening we're
getting into the Christmas Eve window. We want to make
sure we put it out well. People still may be
traveling or have a chance to listen before they're preoccupied
with their families or watching football. Catch every episode of
(03:07):
The Favorites live on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube,
don't forget to give us a like and subscribe to
the Action Network YouTube page. As a reminder, The Favorites
podcast is presented by Bet three six.
Speaker 3 (03:17):
Five now new bed three sixty five.
Speaker 1 (03:19):
Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets
when you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code
Favorites deposit ten dollars. Place a bet for five dollars
to get one hundred and fifty in bonus bets. Those
bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,
and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At Bet
three sixty five. Must be twenty one or older in
presenton Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,
(03:45):
or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in
Iowa terms. Conditions restriction is apply. All right, You're ready
to roll Simon. Let's start with our early loss, early
window loss the Rams at the New York Jets. We
had the Jets plus three and a half Gifford, Producer, Gifford,
(04:08):
are you ready? Because I want us to play a
clip of our convo from Thursday?
Speaker 3 (04:14):
Do you remember, Simon? Do you remember that conversation?
Speaker 1 (04:16):
Do you remember our biggest fear about betting the Jets
when we talked about it on Thursday?
Speaker 2 (04:22):
I do not.
Speaker 3 (04:24):
Gifford, are you ready to play this clip? You can
tell me in the chat?
Speaker 1 (04:27):
He is ready. All right, Here we go play it.
This is the scary party. They're very unqualified, ill equipped
head coach who knows less about clock management than just
about anybody watching Red Zone on a Sunday afternoon. It's
actually astonishing how bad he is at it. So if
we get screwed in this game, this is why I
(04:48):
worry a little bit about Jeff Olbrook, just not understanding
the base of construct of clock management. I don't know
about you, Simon, but I put us losing that game
squarely on.
Speaker 3 (05:01):
The shoulders of Jeff Ulbrick.
Speaker 1 (05:03):
And his asinine, idiotic go back to being a defensive
coordinator or probably a linebackers coach or maybe coaching high
school football, because he does not understand anything about the
strategy of managing fourth downs managing the clock. At the
NFL level, an NFL coach has responsibility for two things
(05:27):
on game day. That's it, are you going forward and
fourth down? And how are you managing the clock? He
makes the wrong call every single time. I'm referring to
the first quarter. The Jets dominate the game. They look amazing.
They look Aaron Rodgers is slinging it, Devonte Adams is
(05:49):
catching it. The Rams look exactly like we think they're
going to look. They look a little bit out of sorts.
They look like the team that had been overvalued. The
Jets look like the team that is finally figuring it out.
In my head, I was thinking, oh my god, the
Jets are probably going to do something so stupid, like
Woody Johnson's kids are going to decide they have to
keep Aaron Rodgers for next year.
Speaker 3 (06:08):
That's how well he was playing.
Speaker 1 (06:09):
They're up six to nothing because of course they score
a touchdown and missed the extra point. They had just
intercepted Stafford, who was a wreck.
Speaker 3 (06:17):
At this point.
Speaker 1 (06:18):
There's no reason to be aggressive in the game. You
are dominating this game, you punt the ball if you're
not going to get close to a first down, and
you make Stafford prove it on their own thirty three
with eight minutes left in the second quarter. They go
for it on fourth and one, get stuffed, the Rams
score a touchdown. It's back and forth the rest of
(06:40):
the day. What was your thought on that particular play,
because in my head, I'm like, this guy's truly a
fucking Putts.
Speaker 2 (06:51):
Yeah, every call he made flip the momentum.
Speaker 4 (06:54):
Like the Jets defense, not that they dominate the game,
but Stafford only had what one and ten hundred and
fifteen pass Like, he didn't have a good day at all.
Speaker 2 (07:02):
He wasn't.
Speaker 4 (07:03):
Like we talked about, they were playing so all the Jets,
and basically every point that the Rams had came off
a Jets bad decision, Right, it was either the head
coach or Rogers. And yeah, like going for that fourth
down on their own thirty was terrible. Not taking the
three to go up six, Yeah.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
It was a terrible decision.
Speaker 4 (07:23):
And obviously going for it at midfield once again and
yet not getting it. It's just like every everything that
could have gone wrong and then that Rodgers obviously Rodgers
full will turnover. But yeah, they basically outplayed the Rams
in that game, but they just mentally gave away the game,
like they gave it away in so many different ways
with those bad calls that you're right, it's it's brutal,
(07:44):
But it was just like we talked about, it's the
other dogs you bet today. It's like, you bet these
teams in these good spots, but you obviously need luck
and bounce.
Speaker 2 (07:52):
To go your way.
Speaker 4 (07:53):
And we had a game today where every bounce went
against us and we still somehow covered and that team
went out right, we're in this game. There were still
those opportunities for this Jets team, and they couldn't stop
shooting themselves on the foot like even the opportunity was
given to them, the Rams kept letting them hang around,
stay in the game to cover the number, and it
all basically came down to Devati Adams turned the wrong
(08:14):
way on a fourth down or I think that might
have been third down midfield, Rogers throws a bad bad spot,
they don't get on fourth down, and then all of
a sudden the Rams come down score again. It's like,
well that BET's officially dead. So yeah, brutal bet, brutal
team in the Jets. I mean, I'm I'm happy the
season is almost over, the playoffs, so we won't have
to bet this Jets team anymore.
Speaker 1 (08:35):
So what you're referring to is this is a nine
to six game in the second quarter, and that it's
clearly a defensive battle where points are going to be
at a premium. Anyone watching this game's no watching this
game knows you just got to get as many points
(08:55):
as you can. Because Stafford is struggling so much in
this game, the only thing that's working for them is
Kyron Williams. Fourth and four from their own twelve from
the Rams twelve, he decides to go for it. Jeff Ulbrick,
this guy thinks he's like Dan Campbell, only without the
talent and without the strategic thought of when you should
(09:18):
actually be going on fourth down.
Speaker 2 (09:21):
Even worse, I don't I don't think it's him, Chat.
I think it's it's Rogers.
Speaker 4 (09:24):
He's going to make these decisions because it feels like
every time it's Rogers standing on the field waving or
waving guys off.
Speaker 2 (09:29):
And it's like, dude, do not let this crazy.
Speaker 4 (09:32):
Guy who might have him be here in about two weeks,
keep making all these decisions, Like obviously Rogers Lewis was
to go with the guy thinks he can complete it
every time.
Speaker 2 (09:39):
So I'm with you. It's like the man has no backbone.
Speaker 4 (09:42):
He kept making the wrong calls, not understanding the way
the game was and.
Speaker 2 (09:46):
Just how much momentums team had.
Speaker 4 (09:48):
Like you said, they just had so many opportunities that
you would put Stafford once again in that bad position,
have to pass instead, let him keep having the lead
where they can just keep running the ball. And that's
the best thing they had today that I mean, you know,
Williams the average number five yards to carry, Like that's
really their bread and butter day in this game.
Speaker 1 (10:04):
So the other player referring to is they were down
ten with two minutes, two seconds to go. It's fourth
and four from midfield. They're going to go for it,
as they should. In my head, I was already thinking, yeah,
they'll get to the twenty with one point fifteen left
and it'll be fourth down and they'll just kick the
field goal there, so like what does it matter?
Speaker 3 (10:24):
Instead it's fourth and four.
Speaker 1 (10:25):
They get a false start of course, because they had
so many penalties in critical situations, They're pushed back nine yards,
they go for the field goal, they miss it. Can
you recall a coach that when you're handicapping, you've had
to so aggressively consider his ineptitude when you are thinking
(10:53):
about betting that game, when you are making a number
for that game. At this point, I feel like you
have to take the Jets down for or there because
of his inability to assess what is happening right in
front of him.
Speaker 4 (11:08):
Yeah, I mean the Saints coach I fired this year
was absolutely the worst ever, right historically, I think I
haven't always told us that.
Speaker 2 (11:13):
Yeah, no, I was trying to.
Speaker 4 (11:16):
Think, is that what was the guy's name was a
mcdou I forget the name of the Giants coach, but
he had a point where Mack do ma could do.
He hit a point where it was like anything this
guy was doing, I wanted to fade him, like he
canpletely have lost of the locker room. I remember when
he benched Eli Manning. Yeah, should jump out.
Speaker 1 (11:33):
Yeah, you know that's a good call, Like this guy,
even if it's Aaron Rodgers, like you should know enough
that you're playing for your coaching for next year. Maybe
you're not going to be a head coach, but maybe
if you show some semblance of backbone, some ability to
(11:53):
manage a situation, some understanding of what is important in
terms of the clock, going for it all that. I
don't think Aaron Rodgers is saying, let's go forward and
fourth and one from the thirty. I think that's Jeff
Olbrick deciding that they're going to do it. I mean,
maybe we'll I don't know if we'll ever find out,
but I can't imagine Aaron Rodgers is saying that.
Speaker 2 (12:15):
I can.
Speaker 4 (12:15):
But again, I might be thinking too much because I'm
watching this documentary right now. I don't know if you are,
and it is it is eye opening. Me and Aaron
Rodgers would be good friends. He is an absolute character.
Speaker 1 (12:28):
They're just what a freaking train wreck. I thought we
had him a good spot. We did have him a
good spot.
Speaker 4 (12:33):
Yeah, I wish we should just Unfortunately, obviously we can't
take first half here, but that clearly was the move
with that Jets team. They didn't score a single point
in the second half.
Speaker 3 (12:42):
Amazing.
Speaker 1 (12:43):
Arizona at Carolina five and a half. Look, we love
the Panthers and Panthers in this spot. We had high
expectations for them. They totally dominated this game. At what
point they were up twenty to three, we were feeling
really good. The Cardinals knuck back in it. All of
a sudden, they score fourteenth straight is twenty seventeen. I
(13:05):
was still feeling pretty good, like we got a good
number in the contest. We got five and a half.
So the way the Panthers were playing and they were
dominating on the ground, the Cardinals really couldn't stop them.
I felt like we were going to chew clock and
that we were going to have a chance to maybe
trade points, trade field goals, whatever. Then it got a
(13:26):
little wacky. Yeah, At one point, Bryce Harper played exactly
like the guy we've been betting at right, Bryce Young.
Speaker 2 (13:36):
I meance Harper's on your mind, though, chat.
Speaker 1 (13:39):
Bryce Harper might be better than half the quarterbacks in
the NFL. On a critical short yardage play late in
the second half, Bryce Young got hit so hard in
the face and he side armed a ball they could first.
Speaker 2 (13:53):
Down, perfect ball, perfect ball. Getting smashed in.
Speaker 1 (13:57):
The face like he was hit so hard, I thought
he wouldn't get up, Like I just thought I can't believe.
Speaker 2 (14:03):
I can't believe. Again.
Speaker 4 (14:04):
We talked about it coming a year, how small he is.
He just takes these insane hits, and like you said,
he gets up smiling.
Speaker 3 (14:10):
It's crazy smiling.
Speaker 1 (14:11):
After that, I swear to god, I thought to myself,
it's so sad that he died on the field, but
at least he died doing what he loves and keeping
this game close. And maybe we still got a shot
with Andy dob No.
Speaker 2 (14:24):
It's like that old uh, I forget.
Speaker 4 (14:25):
I don't know if it was Bruce Lee, but it
was like, basically like the guys who are the best
are like feathers who can take punches right. You don't
want to be punched like your metal. You be punch
them like you're a feather, like you can eat those hits.
I don't know how he does it because he should
have been dead. Like you said, it was a three
hundred pound man, literally full speed level in when he
was mid throw.
Speaker 2 (14:43):
It was crazy.
Speaker 4 (14:44):
I still can't get over. That's basically what that game
came down to in a lot of ways.
Speaker 5 (14:47):
But look, but on the next like on the next
two or three plays, he lost a perfect accurate moonball
over the outside shoulder to their receiver.
Speaker 3 (15:00):
They scored touch on they're up thirty to twenty.
Speaker 2 (15:02):
Yeah was that more? Was that the more touch?
Speaker 3 (15:04):
That was the past to more?
Speaker 4 (15:06):
Yeah again, Yeah, a lot of big time throws. But
I mean, I honestly thought we were dead. I can't
believe you didn't think we were dead when it came down.
Speaker 2 (15:14):
To that overtime.
Speaker 3 (15:15):
No, you know what, I thought it was dead.
Speaker 1 (15:17):
I wish we could do since we're such a high
production organization. Nice job Matt Mitchell and Gifford on the
on the adding the clip with Ulbrick. But in my notes,
I swear to God in my notes with about right
after Kyle Murray scored, Kyler Murray scored and they scored
(15:37):
was thirty to twenty seven. I wrote in my notes,
this is a nightmare scenario. This game's going to overtime.
We're gonna lose by six. That's exactly what I wrote
in my notes when he scored to make it thirty
to twenty seven. Like I saw OT six seven minutes
(15:59):
out from it happening. Forget about when it went to
ot when we got that coin flip.
Speaker 3 (16:05):
I like.
Speaker 1 (16:08):
The thrill I had with Carolina winning that coin flip
cannot be explained me too.
Speaker 4 (16:13):
And it especially just because of what had happened to
us in that late window. We went from being a
pretty cruise two and one to all of sudder, We're
looking at h and three, and I was just like,
this is literally our season in a nutshell, Like everything
just goes wrong in these fourth quarters for us with
these dogs, and it's just been this year. He's just
been a grind like our dogs. The only way dogs
hitting now is if they went outright basically.
Speaker 3 (16:33):
Like they have to be perfect nearly perfect, yeah.
Speaker 4 (16:36):
And they're just these breaks have to keep going their way,
Like it's it is crazy where you get these comfortable
leads and it's like no, like like you said, Carolina
gets up big and it's like we can still do
the gambling math and see how this could go the
other way and we could still not cover. But yeah,
a game that not that people are trying to talk
me off of it, but like a lot of people
(16:57):
I know were on the Cardinals and a lot of
heavy money came in late and bumped that number up,
like you just said, to five and a half. Some
books were at six a kickoff for that game. So
you know, that's one of those that's like a little
scary because it's a moving against us and we're like
already pot committed kind of on Carolina, Like we didn't
even talk about switching them out right.
Speaker 3 (17:15):
So no, we did. We did.
Speaker 1 (17:17):
We did talk about switching out Carolina and Washington.
Speaker 2 (17:22):
I would say Washington I would have understood, but like.
Speaker 3 (17:26):
We talked about both of them.
Speaker 4 (17:27):
Yeah, for Detroit once you said though five and a half.
Though for Carolina in my mind there was no way
I know of taking it out. But yeah, that that
would have been just a brutal beat to lose two
to again. The other time we covered two when they
lost in every time because it was a field goal.
But it was just like, man, they can't blow this game.
Like they played so well, Brace shungk played so and yeah,
(17:48):
again tough times for dogs Chef, Like two dogs we
took had to win outright for us to basically cover
the number.
Speaker 1 (17:55):
I have an idea for my next book, and it's
about sports betting, and gambler's math.
Speaker 3 (18:04):
Will be part of.
Speaker 1 (18:05):
This book because the math that everybody does when they
are trying to figure out not how they are going
to win a game, how they are going to get
fucked in a game is astonishing, and I wish like
everybody who isn't Dave sports Better knew that what everyone
(18:26):
else in the room who is a sports better was
doing in their head as they were watching any of
these games, because I like every scenario, I was thinking,
this is how we're gonna get screwed here, this is
how we're gonna get screwed here, this is how we're
going to get screwed here. And yet with these two games,
(18:46):
Carolina and now Washington, who we had it, I think
four and a half, right, yeah, four and a half
because that number money came steaming in on Philadelphia on
Sunday morning. This was a dead bat in the first quarter.
Oh yeah, they like they looked terrible. And this was
(19:07):
the game we really talked about putting in. We talked
about like Caroline in Washington, but really it was Washington,
like we felt most uncomfortable with this game. We both
did all week like it was your signon says, but
like it didn't really move in the direction we thought
it was going to move.
Speaker 4 (19:27):
No, it's another week of like, ole guys, I respect
old heads, you know, they're really loving that Eagles team,
and we basically saw it for that first quarter, Like
you just said, I was like, holy shit, they were right.
Speaker 2 (19:39):
We just walked right into us. They could not stop Barkley.
Speaker 4 (19:42):
Like I had so many guys talking to me about
this is a terrible matchup for Barkley. That quietly flipped
that once hers went out. Yeah, they were able to
stop Barkley. And you know, a game in which me
and Chad got incredibly lucky. Kenny Pickett did not lay
down and die. That kid played well in that game
and showed up in pretty big moments, and we basically
(20:04):
just needed a ton of little breaks to go away,
just because Washington came out, you know, not played their
worst game. Obviously, they put up over thirty points, but
five turnovers. You never come back from that with a
rookie against the number one defense on football, like.
Speaker 2 (20:18):
You never have that.
Speaker 4 (20:19):
So basically everything we talked about came true with that
Eagles team. In that spot where you have this emotional
high win against Pittsburgh, you come in and the littlest
thing went wrong with Hurts going out again. It's not
like they're reacted, they fell apart from it, but it
clearly messed up the mindset of the whole team altogether,
because that defense just didn't look right the rest of
(20:40):
the game for.
Speaker 2 (20:40):
The most part, like they were flying.
Speaker 4 (20:43):
To start the game, and then all of a sudden,
it kind of shifted the mood of the whole team.
And you know, props to Ketty Pickett. I mean, he
kept the Eagles in that game and gave us a sweat.
But Jayden Daniels, you know, just locked up Rookie of
the Year, just a truly incredible performance where his running back,
think you fumbled twice Robinson and he's throwing picks all
over the all over the place, and he still took
(21:04):
him down that final drive and a touchdown we had
to have because you know, like you just said, we
were on a bad number. It was on five because
of his stupid pick and that when he threw that
pick and they went to five, I was like, oh mean,
Chad are dead here.
Speaker 2 (21:15):
There's no way he's gonna drive the field with this
amount of time.
Speaker 4 (21:18):
And yeah, basically, DeVante Smith gave us the luckiest drop
and again the Eagles had had two losses this year
on drops. The saue to gets to Lanta in this
drop year, and it's like me and Chad needed that
got really lucky. It happened, but it was like the
classic thing of you know, it was eventually going to
break away some of these some of these games just
(21:39):
because we had been so historically unlucky. So yeah, pretty
insane that all came down to Devonte drop because I
think when they scored, there might have been six seconds
left and he would have caught that it went to
the would have went to the two minute and the
way first down, so they basical would have it would
have been over.
Speaker 3 (21:52):
They would have run it out at thirty three twenty eight.
Speaker 5 (21:54):
Uh.
Speaker 1 (21:57):
We talked about putting the Lions in here, and there
was a moment, as always happens back to back, Saquon
scores on a sixty eight yard touchdown right after Jamison
Williams for the Lions catches.
Speaker 3 (22:11):
An eighty yard bomb.
Speaker 1 (22:13):
In that moment, I was having such regret, Like I'm like,
I was just thinking, well, at least the Jets are dominating,
and at least the Panthers are dominating.
Speaker 3 (22:26):
But like I was truly having.
Speaker 1 (22:28):
Such better as regret even with herts out, they're down
twenty one to seven. I felt like we were always
in it because Kenny Pickett played great in the end.
But the reason Saquon didn't do anything is because the
commanders knew Kenny Pickett wasn't going to be able to
do anything, and they could just load the box and
stop Saquon from getting any yardage whatsoever. And they still
(22:52):
did everything they could to throw this game away. Between
the two picks Jayden Nanna fumble in the second half,
AJ Brown drew sixty eight yards of pass interference penalties
on Marshawn Lattimore. That was as many yards almost as
he had in the first half receiving, Like can you.
Pickett had two great plays, one of them on fourth
and seven to AJ. But we got very lucky in
(23:15):
that game. Even on the game winning play. If you watch,
you're gonna go back and watch the film. I know,
on the game winning play, see how early the commander's
right tackle went.
Speaker 3 (23:27):
He was like, I'd say.
Speaker 1 (23:32):
Zero point two to point three seconds before the snap,
like to the point where my kids sitting next to me.
He goes, well, there's a flag. I'm like, what he
goes the right tackle went early. I'm like, I know,
but they didn't throw it like it was so obvious,
and I was surprised the announcers didn't say anything, cause,
like it was, it was so fundamentally clear. I thought
we were just gonna lose it on that.
Speaker 4 (23:53):
Yeah, and the refs though, are all bizarre, Like think
some of those calls against AJ were just upscene like
they literally but the Eagles basically drive the field for
that whole kept calling holds in past interference. But yeah,
for me, it's, you know, a game where we got lucky,
we played the number, but we always talk about there's
(24:14):
certain spots, and that was just a bad spot for
that Eagles team. And now they're in a position that
you know, they have some real decisions to make. How
bad this hurts concussion is because obviously couldn't come back
in this game.
Speaker 2 (24:24):
So you know, as an.
Speaker 4 (24:25):
Eagles fan, I'm happy it's nothing to do with his body,
but we all know how hard it is to come
back from cushions. Depending on the concussion, right, if this
is a bad one, he could be out to the playoffs.
If it's not that big of a deal, like we'll
know early in this week. Obviously come back this week.
But yeah, we were never going to cover this number.
If it was Jalen Hurts in the full game.
Speaker 3 (24:42):
Yeah, totally not New England at Buffalo.
Speaker 1 (24:45):
So, you know, eight favorites cover in the early window,
including Michael Pennix and the huge favorites over the Giants
which we never considered, and the Lions at six and
a half, which we thought about, and the Bengals at
seven and a half, which, excuse me, which grew even
(25:06):
bigger as we got I think it was close to
ten before kickoff.
Speaker 2 (25:11):
Only three. You know, if only three dogs covered this
whole weekend, right.
Speaker 3 (25:14):
Yeah, it's absurd.
Speaker 1 (25:17):
Well, it depends, it depends, because anyways, we didn't choose
any of those. We went all in on the Buffalo Bills.
We I mean me to the point where even professional
Better was worried about my sanity, because why wouldn't you
bet the best player in a home game in which
he historically dominates and covers huge numbers against a really
(25:41):
really terrible team who's got offensive turmoil and a defense
that hasn't been able to stop anybody all year. Oh yeah,
the Bills couldn't stop anybody. Drake May looked like Josh
Allen pass were five of eight on third downs, They
were one for one on fourth down in the first
half because the execu to fake punt from their own
twenty two like the Pats game seven and a half
(26:04):
yurs per play, it was a freaking debacle.
Speaker 4 (26:10):
Yeah, it's kind of game. It's the best. It's the
dream if you bet the dog in it. Because, like
you just said, Drake May came out firing and he
looked ready for this game, where Josh Allen looked all
out of sorts. Like we talked about it, you know,
we tried catching on him against the Lions because we
knew he was gonna he was due for a bad game.
They had done something that strike, they had scored thirty
points or more eighth straight games.
Speaker 2 (26:31):
Eventually goes the other way.
Speaker 4 (26:33):
It's just, I mean, he is superhuman, but it's like,
you know, a lot of we talked about a lot
of the throws he was making. They were bad decisions.
They were working out for him because he's just that talented.
In this game, he just didn't get away over it right,
The bounces didn't go his way. They're clearly the better
team in every metric. Like when they when they wanted
to turn it on, they did turn it on. You know, defensively,
they completely stopped everything that Patriots had momentum wise.
Speaker 2 (26:56):
I mean they were up.
Speaker 4 (26:57):
Yeah fourteen early in the second quarter and they didn't
score another point until the very last two minutes of
the game. So that just shows like obviously the Bill's defense,
you know, it's a big worry.
Speaker 2 (27:06):
Everyone's talking about it. We know that they're they're they're
not as.
Speaker 4 (27:10):
Terrible as they've looked against all these offenses last couple
of weeks, but there is something to it. Like you
talked earlier, in that game, Drake May was moving up
and down the field and they're running the ball down
the Bill's throat. So Josh Allen basically was the one
that screwed the end of this. Like their defense did enough,
they got us a defensive touchdown. You figure Josh Allen's
(27:30):
gonna cover that number. You know, got a little banged up,
but it was just at the end of the day,
he just had an off night. Like even Cook had
a good game running the ball like he was all about.
Josh Allen, he just finally had a bad game. So yeah,
if he has another one, lamar noise starts becoming a
little more more real. Right, It's it's it's gonna get
a little tighter here because he does have an easy
(27:52):
schedule ending here. He's gonna go New England to Now
he's playing the Jets to back to New England. So yeah,
well we'll see what the injury is for Joshulling on
his hand or if it's his elbow. But tough, tough
bet that we lost this one, especially because every favorite cover,
Like we talked Detroit, you try to talk.
Speaker 2 (28:10):
Me into Cincy.
Speaker 4 (28:12):
I couldn't get there that number one from seven and
a half up to nine and a half by kickoff.
They got crazy lucky to cover that number. I mean
very lucky every little thing. I think they had two
or three red zone turnovers, you know, walking touchdown call
back on a holding for the Browns.
Speaker 2 (28:30):
They go down and score a touchdown.
Speaker 4 (28:31):
They didn't even need to score, right, they're trying to
run the clock out, they jump off.
Speaker 2 (28:34):
He just throws a purflet ball to Chase.
Speaker 4 (28:36):
So uh, it's just been that kind of season chat
where it's like, you know, we're not we're not favorite betters.
Speaker 2 (28:42):
We've been trying to do it.
Speaker 4 (28:43):
Even this week, I thought favorites were gonna get smoked,
like the public. They're just betting these moneyline parlays of
all these favorites and they're just cashing every week. It's crazy,
but they did it again. So yeah, hopefully the dog
that we like tonight comes through again. It's a professional side.
We've seen it cut down to three and a half
in a couple of books now this Cowboys line, so.
Speaker 2 (29:06):
Still feel confident about it.
Speaker 4 (29:07):
But after seeing all these Favorite stage chat it's like,
I don't know what I'm looking at. It's just it
doesn't make sense. We're in a Twilight world right now.
Speaker 1 (29:14):
We're going to talk about week seventeen on the other
side of this read and I said before we came
on the air, I feel like I'm reading hieroglyphics because
I don't know how to look at this sort of
on Sunday night in the heat of the moment without
taking a beat and really breaking some of it down
and trying to think about the scenario. So I'm curious
to get your take on some of these. I got
(29:35):
two or three games that sort of like felt right,
but I was also in my head just working so
hard to figure out where's my bias and blind spot
on Favorite, So I'm going to give you a minute,
you'll take a look at the lines. I'm going to
do our read for game Time, Simon, can you name
(29:59):
the best ticketing app in the United States?
Speaker 2 (30:01):
Again in game Time?
Speaker 1 (30:03):
That's right, it's our beloved sponsor game Time. I have
a no joke.
Speaker 3 (30:08):
You're not gonna believe this.
Speaker 1 (30:09):
You know, I am an avid user of all the
products of our regular sponsors. Here's an example of how avid.
So like last night, my younger son goes into New
York City, goes into the city with a couple of
his buddies staying overnight at his grandma's. They're all going
to stay there because she just moved into Manhattan. He
(30:32):
calls me around five point thirty last night and he
says that they all want to go to the Nets
game at Barclay's. They're playing the Jazz in Brooklyn. I
told him I'd buy the tickets for all them, but
no more than fifty bucks each. While on FaceTime, he
opened the game Time app that's on his phone. He
clicked on the net Jazz game, went to the top
(30:53):
deals that are featured in a row. When you click
on the game top. We both while we're looking at it,
see the all in price for fifty one dollars for
three three tickets fifty one each clicks It hits pay.
It was done three clicks. He had the tickets. It
was seamless and perfect.
Speaker 3 (31:13):
No joke.
Speaker 1 (31:13):
This is a real world example. I'm going to open
the game Time app right now from my house here
in Connecticut. We're probably going to go see a Yukon
women's game this week less than thirty five dollars to
get in. My favorite part about game Time the all
in pricing I just mentioned. It shows me the total
cost upfront, no surprises, no matter where you live. Take
the guest work out of buying tickets with game Time.
(31:35):
Download the game Time app, creat an account, use code
favorites favori tes for twenty dollars off your first purchase. Again,
creat an account redeem code favorites. That's favor i tes
for twenty dollars off.
Speaker 3 (31:53):
Download game Time today. What time is it? Game time?
Here's the good for us? Passes our passes today.
Speaker 1 (32:00):
We didn't bet the Giants even though we like were like,
should we really bet or skip a game? In which
is a rookie quarterback who's a touchdown plus favorite.
Speaker 2 (32:10):
Biggest favorite NFL history for first start for a rookie.
Speaker 3 (32:13):
And he covered with no problem. We didn't bet he
was he looked good.
Speaker 4 (32:15):
He didn't throw a touchdown pass covered, he still looked good.
That is crazy to think that's how bad Drew Lock is.
Speaker 1 (32:22):
He throws a really good ball. Well, look, there were
two pick sixes. We didn't bet the Titans. Every one
in the betting community was taking the bait. We did
not take.
Speaker 2 (32:31):
No.
Speaker 3 (32:31):
They almost came close, man.
Speaker 2 (32:34):
That is and shout out to bet three six five.
I did.
Speaker 4 (32:37):
I bet on their site. I did a money line
parlay with the Colts and they paid it out early
and I was just so happy when the OLSNAT Titans
come back up and I was like, oh, the Colts
are going to blow this in. Anthony Richardson would eleven completions,
had a big, big third down throw.
Speaker 1 (32:52):
Oh my god, so crazy. That was a crazy game. Unfortunately,
we just couldn't pick the right favorite.
Speaker 4 (33:00):
Yeah, this week came down to it, right, we'd have
been three and one if we had picked the right one.
We both love Detroit, but once again the books are
fucking up where it's like the line was too easy.
It was six and a half all week and everyone
in their grandma was hammering that line Detroit. It was
ninety percent of the tickets, ninety percent of the bets.
It was like twenty to one the tickets to the
(33:21):
money was on Detroit.
Speaker 2 (33:23):
What are the books doing? I don't get it. What
are they doing?
Speaker 4 (33:27):
Like they're just killing me because it's throwing me off
or it's like that looked too good to be truly.
Even we talked about this morning. I was like, I said,
you are we the suckers taking this Detroit? Like we
always go against this? It felt too easy, and nope,
it is. It is that easy right now.
Speaker 2 (33:41):
That Bears team is just totally dysfunctional.
Speaker 1 (33:44):
Yeah, what we said, like that Bear's team, they they're
so unprepared to start the game that you really you
can't bet them. You know, it's just too you can't
because they don't have the coaching to get them ready
for the game and they were out of it before
the game started. It was over week seventeen. There were
three games when I was looking through the Action app
(34:06):
at the early lines for next week.
Speaker 3 (34:07):
When I was walking up to my office after the
Bill's game.
Speaker 1 (34:13):
Immediately I looked at that Atlanta game plus five on
the road at Washington.
Speaker 3 (34:21):
I don't know why.
Speaker 1 (34:23):
Maybe I'm a sucker because I felt like the Commanders
were terrible and Pennix was awesome. But maybe this is
where it's a dead number and it's not the Eagles,
and like maybe that's the favorite we play. I'm at
a loss right now. Do you have thoughts on that?
Speaker 4 (34:42):
I don't have an opinion on it, but I feel
like you're probably right where that line does look fishy
where you know, I'm assuming I'll have this model out
at three three and a half because I agree with you.
I think he looked much better than I anticipated. And
this is a tough spot though rookie second start primetime
game in Washington, but we expect Washington coming off that
(35:03):
win to you know, sem, I have a letdown, but
they just survived the five turnovers.
Speaker 2 (35:08):
I don't know.
Speaker 4 (35:08):
I don't know how to really read that one, but
interesting number to open up five for the books.
Speaker 1 (35:13):
Yeah, it's a real middleman number there, middle of the
ground number, middle of the road. Having a hard time
with it. I looked at the Rams as favorites, four
point favorites against Arizona. This felt like all right, like,
now it's.
Speaker 2 (35:31):
Already a five.
Speaker 3 (35:32):
It's I'm seeing Jesus Christ.
Speaker 1 (35:34):
I missed it already, so I was clearly on the
right side there, like because this.
Speaker 2 (35:39):
Is a nice spot for the Rams. Yeah, I mean Kyler.
Speaker 4 (35:42):
I don't know if Color was crying on the bench
the end of that Carolina game, but they basically found
out that they're their season's over.
Speaker 3 (35:48):
Yeah, they're done, and like here now.
Speaker 2 (35:50):
La and Connor got hurt, I believe.
Speaker 1 (35:52):
Yeah, and La is in the driver's seat. So that
looked like a good one for me. The last one
that I was.
Speaker 4 (35:57):
Still don't mind it as long as it's under six.
We're right, there's no rush to bet now that's already
been hit, right.
Speaker 1 (36:02):
The last one on my radar was Green Bay as
a one and a half point dog at Minnesota. I
think I think Minnesota is getting lucky right now, like
I think green Bay.
Speaker 3 (36:17):
I look at that team. I don't know.
Speaker 1 (36:20):
Why I think they're so good, but if I can
get Green Bay as a dog at any point, I
want to take them.
Speaker 2 (36:26):
Interesting. Yeah, I was.
Speaker 4 (36:28):
I was ready to jump off the green Bay train
because IM probably gonna d up taking them tomorrow night.
I know we have convinced me. So I don't wanna
give away too much because we're doing the show tomorrow.
People should check it out on YouTube. But yeah, this
this Packers team, they're gonna be everyone batting on, right
because I think people have your mindset. The vikings that
to me was a scheduled loss, and they still somehow
(36:48):
stole it there at the end, like Sam Darnold getting destroyed,
eating up throwing absolutely dimes down the sideline to Justin
Jefferson like that. The stat in the Ansler read that
there's been two or to Rex in NFL history to
go to a new team and win the more than
thirteen games in their first season in Sam Manning with
Denver and then Steve McNair his first year with the
(37:09):
Ravens and six it was like, oh, these shit, this
is truly a wacko world we're living in right now.
Speaker 1 (37:14):
Sam Donald like, but you know what's interesting about him.
There's things that they're doing on offense that are brilliant.
There's also things that they're doing because his arm is
so freaking strong, Like he is throwing these outs across
the field from the opposite hash on a rope and
these are fifteen yard outs. They're not these short five
(37:38):
yard outs that so many guys throw now that they
can do because his arm is so good like that
is he's stone at fifty yards in the air for
fifteen yard games. It's it's pretty astonishing.
Speaker 4 (37:50):
Yeah, I mean, obviously Kevin O'Connell deserves because of the year.
What this even some of this stuff, he's probably just
in the back of my mind, like I never would
have expected this with this kid, Like.
Speaker 3 (38:02):
You know, Kat's green or whatever.
Speaker 1 (38:05):
Yeah, did you see when they were reading that stat
you just said on the air. He was walking across
and he was clapping and he was like almost smirking.
Speaker 3 (38:12):
He was like, got away with that one.
Speaker 2 (38:14):
Yeah, And it's just.
Speaker 4 (38:18):
A whole predicament that they put the vikings in now
because you know, Sam Donald, this is the dream for him.
When he was coming out of college, we all knew
he had the arm talent. He was a twenty one
year old at the time, who were like, Okay, if
he gets reps, can figure it out.
Speaker 2 (38:31):
He could be a stud in this league. And he
went through years.
Speaker 4 (38:35):
Of just psychological warfare, like this guy basically got cold
on camera saying that he was seeing ghosts. Yeah, and
couldn't live it down for I don't even know what
was that five years, six years and his confidence level
right now, I mean there's only one person more confident.
Speaker 2 (38:50):
Was saying about Sam Donald's.
Speaker 4 (38:52):
Colin Cowherd, like those two guys are peak right now
because it's it's insane what we've seen from him this season.
Like even in my wild of streams, I could never
seen this season come from. So that's my fear right
now with this number chat is that Green Bay will
be the public side. And I think people have the
same entity view of this Vikings team keep getting caught
and I'm another way where I'm.
Speaker 2 (39:11):
Like this has everything.
Speaker 4 (39:13):
Everything about this has lined up for them to be
the one seed and then losing in their first round
or the second round whenever they play the Bucks or
the Eagles or somebody, because it's like you said, their
luck right now, and the one score games has just
been insane. Every one score game they somehow find a
way to win, whether it's overtime or you know, the
last minute drive by Sam Darnold and then making the
(39:35):
stop defensively, Like it's just been all clicking for this
Vikings team and it's it really is crazy at this point.
So I can't get there with you with Green Bay
right now, I'm a little spooked about this Vikings team.
Speaker 1 (39:46):
I had the Seahawks plus three and a half and
from early nights, and I love this game for the
Seahawks at plus.
Speaker 4 (39:54):
Another game, the books moved at two and a half
for a day and a half got slaughtered.
Speaker 1 (39:58):
Yeah, exactly, And that's why we didn't talk about it
for the contest, like you didn't love it because it moved,
and we were both worried about Geno Smith and so
once it had gone off to three and a half.
But in the end, I'm like, oh shit, Gino's gonna
throw a pick six here, like an easy one. I'm
gonna lose this fucking bet, all right, So who are
you looking at?
Speaker 4 (40:18):
I'm grabbing Cowboys right now. It's seven and a half.
I don't know what the deal is with Hurtz. I
don't know how banged up he is. If this is
gonna Kenny Pickett, if they're gonna be cautious year we
just talked about it. I don't know what the Eagles
are playing for at this point, Like, yes, they want
to win this game, but you know, we've seen time
and time again this rivalry. Like even when the Cowboys
are playing their backups, they play hard in this one.
(40:39):
So it's just really picking the number. It's seven and
a half me, me and Chad Hope. What happens tonight,
does happen where the Cowboys either went out right or
cover the number, This will definitely be six and a half.
And then if it's obviously Kenny Pickett, who knows could
be four and a half if it's Kenny Pickett and
keep dropping. So this is just a number I'm gonna
grab now just because it's a key number and there's
(40:59):
your so much up in the air, and I just want.
Speaker 1 (41:02):
To emphasize, like that's what people need to do. We
took the Chiefs last week at two and a half,
not knowing what was going on with my homes and
it turned out to be he was playing and they
were been going away and we had the plus two
and a half from early in the week when there
was uncertainty.
Speaker 4 (41:20):
Yeah, so that's just what I'm grabbing now. Again, I
don't want to hit these games too much just because
we're going through it. Ouption convince me, But yeah, in
a normal year, I would be hammering the Steelers on Christmas.
Speaker 2 (41:35):
They are right now a plus two dog.
Speaker 4 (41:37):
So that's another thing I don't know what to do
where it's like the simple person, the dumb guy is, well,
it's Mahomes under three, and you always take Mahomes under three,
and it's like, this guy's been money with the favorites
this year, so it's it's tough for me to fight
through that one. That's when we're going to break down
obviously more.
Speaker 1 (41:54):
Well, look, here's one thing I will say, and I
said this, I'm convincing me this morning before we went
on air. What kind of world are we living in
where you can't even count on fading Mahomes as a
more than three point favorite, which you have normally been
able to do, when he's won two weeks in a
row as a more than three point favorite. And you
can't count on betting on Mike Tomlin as a underdog,
(42:17):
especially as a big dog in this raven Steelers rivalry,
and he's lost two weeks in a row as a
plus four and a half, plus five and a half,
plus six and a half dog. So now we've got
Rock meeting the hard place next week, where you were
dying to bet on Mahomes at under three.
Speaker 4 (42:32):
Taking that's all I was about to say that I
took the two you did, yeah, because my whole thought
process is it is a Mahomes under three. And we
talked about that. Russell Wilson might have turned back into
a pumpkin because we.
Speaker 3 (42:44):
Hasn't had George Pickens. What if he has George Pickens
this week.
Speaker 2 (42:48):
That could be the difference.
Speaker 4 (42:49):
But he has just made such poor decisions where they
were thriving because he was being smart protecting the ball
and not putting them in a bad position. And that's
he just put them in such a bad position. Look,
I still can't believe they cover that number. It just
totally went sideways. They're about to go up fourteen to
seven against the Ravens. He has that bad fumble and
then after that he's just chasing the rest of the game.
(43:10):
And that's that's not ever we want rust to be.
So again, bizarre number to hang by the books. You know,
another game that just jumps out of you know, just
a bizarre number of the books are hanging here early.
You can get Bengals minus three against Denver on Saturday at.
Speaker 1 (43:27):
Home, So I saw that and I thought they were
what is that three? I looked at that, and I'm like,
I feel like they're playing us because Joe Burrow is
so unworldly right now, he's locked in, and so they're
(43:48):
looking They're like their defense is so bad. I feel
like there's a big difference between what Sean Payton will
do with bo Nix, who has played well against for
his defenses, versus what Stefanski can do with Dorian Thompson Robinson.
So I just felt like they were inflating that a
(44:08):
little bit more than they ship that. I felt like
they were trying to suck me in.
Speaker 2 (44:12):
That's fair.
Speaker 4 (44:13):
It was just it was just another game that jumped
out to me where it's like, these lines are interesting,
They're hanging here because you're right, gut instinct.
Speaker 2 (44:19):
Is just to bet this. Yeah, I could see it being.
Speaker 4 (44:22):
Three and a half in us being on Denverse. You're right,
I won't have to rush to this one. That was
definitely a favor that opened up that called my attention.
Here's another one we just talked about. Josh Allen might
be a little banged up jets or plus ten. I
know it's too raw right now. Oh God, I'm just
gonna grab it just because it is plus ten, Like
that's that's a huge number for a Josh Allen that
(44:43):
might be a little banged up. But like this, this
him having back to back bad games that I'm not
betting on. So that's that's issue where it's like, I'm
not going to force us to put this one in.
It's just about playing this number just in case Josh
Allen is banged up, if he has a brace on
his finger or his elbow, whatever, another team that it
might be all locked up for this game. The Chiefs
might beat Pittsburgh Chad and they might not really be
(45:05):
playing for anything at that point. So there's just another
number I'm gonna play like the Cowboys, just in case
it does move.
Speaker 1 (45:09):
If anyone can find a way to screw it up.
It's Aaron Rodgers and Jeff obrah that's fair. Anyone else
was at it, No.
Speaker 4 (45:21):
Because there's like favorites. I like that, Like I'm gonna
say it for our show. Just I'm just worried I'm
just suggesting too much here. But Detroit's minus three and
a half against the forty niners. The forty nine ers
look like they quit a years ago. Usually I have
fadom on that number, but it's just.
Speaker 2 (45:35):
A bad line.
Speaker 4 (45:36):
And Miami's right now is minus six against Cleveland. I
kind of want to take Cleveland there, but I feel
like I'm getting sucked in once again where it's like, no,
go Miami. But it's just it might be cold as
hell in Cleveland, and now it's two at a six
six point favorite on the road in cold ass Cleveland.
Speaker 2 (45:53):
I take that number right now.
Speaker 3 (45:55):
I looked.
Speaker 1 (45:55):
I didn't think about Detroit because it felt like because
that game's in San Francisco, right, Yeah, Yeah, it felt
like someone's trying to fuck me on.
Speaker 2 (46:07):
That and it always feels that way.
Speaker 3 (46:10):
Yeah, the Miami today was six and a half.
Speaker 1 (46:12):
Right, But that's the problem is like we're looking at
favorites and the book is posting these numbers knowing that
they're sucking us in and it doesn't matter because they
keep losing and we keep ignoring them and the public
keeps winning.
Speaker 3 (46:27):
Like the public.
Speaker 1 (46:28):
Favorites today were the Bills, who of course we faded,
uh we took, and the Bengals who covered, and the
third team was Detroit. I looked at Miami minus six,
I'm like, yeah, I'm gonna want to play Miami against Cleveland,
and then I'm like, well, shoot, it's to in the cold.
And now we're just overthinking it. So look, there's a
(46:49):
lot to unpack. I think I think the best idea
is take the Rams. Take Dallas plus seven and a half,
because we don't know what happened with her. It's like,
get the good number. I like your idea for Kansas
City minus two, but it makes me a little nervous.
But we'll break it down more on Tuesday at eleven
(47:09):
am Eastern Early show for Christmas Eve. As a reminder,
the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five
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five dollars sign up using promo code Favorites, deposit ten
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(47:29):
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Speaker 3 (47:35):
And more.
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Catch our next episode live a special early time on Tuesday,
(48:00):
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Apple Pods wherever you get your pods, Rate review, subscribe,
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Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
Live from our Tommy John Home Studios. I am Chad
Moment of the Action Network. This is our Sunday night episode.
We will review the faves five picks we put into
the contest. We're going to dissect why we left some
(00:32):
games out. We're going to preview the early lines we
already like for a full week of NFL football in
week seventeen games Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday. I'm joined as
always by my cost, my companion, my campadre, my BFF
(00:52):
professional Better Assignment Hunter.
Speaker 2 (00:53):
Hello, so a man, Chad, How are we doing, dude?
Speaker 1 (00:58):
We are two and two on the day. We have
the Cowboys plus four and a half tonight. This is
the week where we looked in the face of the
gambling gods and the trends of Favorites dominating, and we said,
screw you. Good teams with great quarterbacks, we will not
(01:22):
be intimidated. We didn't like every dog today, we did
like some. After the early window there had been on Sunday,
there had been ten NFL games played, so the Thursday,
the Saturday Sunday Favorites had won eight of them. Simon,
It's an unbelievable trend. And while we did have a
(01:44):
favorite in our top five today, somehow it's the only
favorite that didn't cover, But we were on both underdogs
that covered in the early window. This may be the
most exciting post games review we've ever had. Like two
games we were really sure of, gave us all the
(02:06):
reasons to feel unsure, yet delivered two games we were
least sure of.
Speaker 3 (02:11):
The one game we.
Speaker 1 (02:12):
Loved for every reason except for one did not go
our way for exactly the reason we feared.
Speaker 3 (02:21):
We're going to break that down.
Speaker 1 (02:22):
We're going to play a little clip that shows how
much we were foreshadowing our fears. Amazing Topsy Turvy bet
the number early part of the day, we will get
to it. Programming note for this upcoming week holiday week
Christmas on Wednesday, our live episode of the Favorites on
Tuesday is going to be at eleven a m.
Speaker 3 (02:46):
Eastern.
Speaker 1 (02:46):
We're going to go early because Tuesday afternoon evening we're
getting into the Christmas Eve window. We want to make
sure we put it out well. People still may be
traveling or have a chance to listen before they're preoccupied
with their families or watching football. Catch every episode of
(03:07):
The Favorites live on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube,
don't forget to give us a like and subscribe to
the Action Network YouTube page. As a reminder, The Favorites
podcast is presented by Bet three six.
Speaker 3 (03:17):
Five now new bed three sixty five.
Speaker 1 (03:19):
Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets
when you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code
Favorites deposit ten dollars. Place a bet for five dollars
to get one hundred and fifty in bonus bets. Those
bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,
and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At Bet
three sixty five. Must be twenty one or older in
presenton Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,
(03:45):
or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in
Iowa terms. Conditions restriction is apply. All right, You're ready
to roll Simon. Let's start with our early loss, early
window loss the Rams at the New York Jets. We
had the Jets plus three and a half Gifford, Producer, Gifford,
(04:08):
are you ready? Because I want us to play a
clip of our convo from Thursday?
Speaker 3 (04:14):
Do you remember, Simon? Do you remember that conversation?
Speaker 1 (04:16):
Do you remember our biggest fear about betting the Jets
when we talked about it on Thursday?
Speaker 2 (04:22):
I do not.
Speaker 3 (04:24):
Gifford, are you ready to play this clip? You can
tell me in the chat?
Speaker 1 (04:27):
He is ready. All right, Here we go play it.
This is the scary party. They're very unqualified, ill equipped
head coach who knows less about clock management than just
about anybody watching Red Zone on a Sunday afternoon. It's
actually astonishing how bad he is at it. So if
we get screwed in this game, this is why I
(04:48):
worry a little bit about Jeff Olbrook, just not understanding
the base of construct of clock management. I don't know
about you, Simon, but I put us losing that game
squarely on.
Speaker 3 (05:01):
The shoulders of Jeff Ulbrick.
Speaker 1 (05:03):
And his asinine, idiotic go back to being a defensive
coordinator or probably a linebackers coach or maybe coaching high
school football, because he does not understand anything about the
strategy of managing fourth downs managing the clock. At the
NFL level, an NFL coach has responsibility for two things
(05:27):
on game day. That's it, are you going forward and
fourth down? And how are you managing the clock? He
makes the wrong call every single time. I'm referring to
the first quarter. The Jets dominate the game. They look amazing.
They look Aaron Rodgers is slinging it, Devonte Adams is
(05:49):
catching it. The Rams look exactly like we think they're
going to look. They look a little bit out of sorts.
They look like the team that had been overvalued. The
Jets look like the team that is finally figuring it out.
In my head, I was thinking, oh my god, the
Jets are probably going to do something so stupid, like
Woody Johnson's kids are going to decide they have to
keep Aaron Rodgers for next year.
Speaker 3 (06:08):
That's how well he was playing.
Speaker 1 (06:09):
They're up six to nothing because of course they score
a touchdown and missed the extra point. They had just
intercepted Stafford, who was a wreck.
Speaker 3 (06:17):
At this point.
Speaker 1 (06:18):
There's no reason to be aggressive in the game. You
are dominating this game, you punt the ball if you're
not going to get close to a first down, and
you make Stafford prove it on their own thirty three
with eight minutes left in the second quarter. They go
for it on fourth and one, get stuffed, the Rams
score a touchdown. It's back and forth the rest of
(06:40):
the day. What was your thought on that particular play,
because in my head, I'm like, this guy's truly a
fucking Putts.
Speaker 2 (06:51):
Yeah, every call he made flip the momentum.
Speaker 4 (06:54):
Like the Jets defense, not that they dominate the game,
but Stafford only had what one and ten hundred and
fifteen pass Like, he didn't have a good day at all.
Speaker 2 (07:02):
He wasn't.
Speaker 4 (07:03):
Like we talked about, they were playing so all the Jets,
and basically every point that the Rams had came off
a Jets bad decision, Right, it was either the head
coach or Rogers. And yeah, like going for that fourth
down on their own thirty was terrible. Not taking the
three to go up six, Yeah.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
It was a terrible decision.
Speaker 4 (07:23):
And obviously going for it at midfield once again and
yet not getting it. It's just like every everything that
could have gone wrong and then that Rodgers obviously Rodgers
full will turnover. But yeah, they basically outplayed the Rams
in that game, but they just mentally gave away the game,
like they gave it away in so many different ways
with those bad calls that you're right, it's it's brutal,
(07:44):
But it was just like we talked about, it's the
other dogs you bet today. It's like, you bet these
teams in these good spots, but you obviously need luck
and bounce.
Speaker 2 (07:52):
To go your way.
Speaker 4 (07:53):
And we had a game today where every bounce went
against us and we still somehow covered and that team
went out right, we're in this game. There were still
those opportunities for this Jets team, and they couldn't stop
shooting themselves on the foot like even the opportunity was
given to them, the Rams kept letting them hang around,
stay in the game to cover the number, and it
all basically came down to Devati Adams turned the wrong
(08:14):
way on a fourth down or I think that might
have been third down midfield, Rogers throws a bad bad spot,
they don't get on fourth down, and then all of
a sudden the Rams come down score again. It's like,
well that BET's officially dead. So yeah, brutal bet, brutal
team in the Jets. I mean, I'm I'm happy the
season is almost over, the playoffs, so we won't have
to bet this Jets team anymore.
Speaker 1 (08:35):
So what you're referring to is this is a nine
to six game in the second quarter, and that it's
clearly a defensive battle where points are going to be
at a premium. Anyone watching this game's no watching this
game knows you just got to get as many points
(08:55):
as you can. Because Stafford is struggling so much in
this game, the only thing that's working for them is
Kyron Williams. Fourth and four from their own twelve from
the Rams twelve, he decides to go for it. Jeff Ulbrick,
this guy thinks he's like Dan Campbell, only without the
talent and without the strategic thought of when you should
(09:18):
actually be going on fourth down.
Speaker 2 (09:21):
Even worse, I don't I don't think it's him, Chat.
I think it's it's Rogers.
Speaker 4 (09:24):
He's going to make these decisions because it feels like
every time it's Rogers standing on the field waving or
waving guys off.
Speaker 2 (09:29):
And it's like, dude, do not let this crazy.
Speaker 4 (09:32):
Guy who might have him be here in about two weeks,
keep making all these decisions, Like obviously Rogers Lewis was
to go with the guy thinks he can complete it
every time.
Speaker 2 (09:39):
So I'm with you. It's like the man has no backbone.
Speaker 4 (09:42):
He kept making the wrong calls, not understanding the way
the game was and.
Speaker 2 (09:46):
Just how much momentums team had.
Speaker 4 (09:48):
Like you said, they just had so many opportunities that
you would put Stafford once again in that bad position,
have to pass instead, let him keep having the lead
where they can just keep running the ball. And that's
the best thing they had today that I mean, you know,
Williams the average number five yards to carry, Like that's
really their bread and butter day in this game.
Speaker 1 (10:04):
So the other player referring to is they were down
ten with two minutes, two seconds to go. It's fourth
and four from midfield. They're going to go for it,
as they should. In my head, I was already thinking, yeah,
they'll get to the twenty with one point fifteen left
and it'll be fourth down and they'll just kick the
field goal there, so like what does it matter?
Speaker 3 (10:24):
Instead it's fourth and four.
Speaker 1 (10:25):
They get a false start of course, because they had
so many penalties in critical situations, They're pushed back nine yards,
they go for the field goal, they miss it. Can
you recall a coach that when you're handicapping, you've had
to so aggressively consider his ineptitude when you are thinking
(10:53):
about betting that game, when you are making a number
for that game. At this point, I feel like you
have to take the Jets down for or there because
of his inability to assess what is happening right in
front of him.
Speaker 4 (11:08):
Yeah, I mean the Saints coach I fired this year
was absolutely the worst ever, right historically, I think I
haven't always told us that.
Speaker 2 (11:13):
Yeah, no, I was trying to.
Speaker 4 (11:16):
Think, is that what was the guy's name was a
mcdou I forget the name of the Giants coach, but
he had a point where Mack do ma could do.
He hit a point where it was like anything this
guy was doing, I wanted to fade him, like he
canpletely have lost of the locker room. I remember when
he benched Eli Manning. Yeah, should jump out.
Speaker 1 (11:33):
Yeah, you know that's a good call, Like this guy,
even if it's Aaron Rodgers, like you should know enough
that you're playing for your coaching for next year. Maybe
you're not going to be a head coach, but maybe
if you show some semblance of backbone, some ability to
(11:53):
manage a situation, some understanding of what is important in
terms of the clock, going for it all that. I
don't think Aaron Rodgers is saying, let's go forward and
fourth and one from the thirty. I think that's Jeff
Olbrick deciding that they're going to do it. I mean,
maybe we'll I don't know if we'll ever find out,
but I can't imagine Aaron Rodgers is saying that.
Speaker 2 (12:15):
I can.
Speaker 4 (12:15):
But again, I might be thinking too much because I'm
watching this documentary right now. I don't know if you are,
and it is it is eye opening. Me and Aaron
Rodgers would be good friends. He is an absolute character.
Speaker 1 (12:28):
They're just what a freaking train wreck. I thought we
had him a good spot. We did have him a
good spot.
Speaker 4 (12:33):
Yeah, I wish we should just Unfortunately, obviously we can't
take first half here, but that clearly was the move
with that Jets team. They didn't score a single point
in the second half.
Speaker 3 (12:42):
Amazing.
Speaker 1 (12:43):
Arizona at Carolina five and a half. Look, we love
the Panthers and Panthers in this spot. We had high
expectations for them. They totally dominated this game. At what
point they were up twenty to three, we were feeling
really good. The Cardinals knuck back in it. All of
a sudden, they score fourteenth straight is twenty seventeen. I
(13:05):
was still feeling pretty good, like we got a good
number in the contest. We got five and a half.
So the way the Panthers were playing and they were
dominating on the ground, the Cardinals really couldn't stop them.
I felt like we were going to chew clock and
that we were going to have a chance to maybe
trade points, trade field goals, whatever. Then it got a
(13:26):
little wacky. Yeah, At one point, Bryce Harper played exactly
like the guy we've been betting at right, Bryce Young.
Speaker 2 (13:36):
I meance Harper's on your mind, though, chat.
Speaker 1 (13:39):
Bryce Harper might be better than half the quarterbacks in
the NFL. On a critical short yardage play late in
the second half, Bryce Young got hit so hard in
the face and he side armed a ball they could first.
Speaker 2 (13:53):
Down, perfect ball, perfect ball. Getting smashed in.
Speaker 1 (13:57):
The face like he was hit so hard, I thought
he wouldn't get up, Like I just thought I can't believe.
Speaker 2 (14:03):
I can't believe. Again.
Speaker 4 (14:04):
We talked about it coming a year, how small he is.
He just takes these insane hits, and like you said,
he gets up smiling.
Speaker 3 (14:10):
It's crazy smiling.
Speaker 1 (14:11):
After that, I swear to god, I thought to myself,
it's so sad that he died on the field, but
at least he died doing what he loves and keeping
this game close. And maybe we still got a shot
with Andy dob No.
Speaker 2 (14:24):
It's like that old uh, I forget.
Speaker 4 (14:25):
I don't know if it was Bruce Lee, but it
was like, basically like the guys who are the best
are like feathers who can take punches right. You don't
want to be punched like your metal. You be punch
them like you're a feather, like you can eat those hits.
I don't know how he does it because he should
have been dead. Like you said, it was a three
hundred pound man, literally full speed level in when he
was mid throw.
Speaker 2 (14:43):
It was crazy.
Speaker 4 (14:44):
I still can't get over. That's basically what that game
came down to in a lot of ways.
Speaker 5 (14:47):
But look, but on the next like on the next
two or three plays, he lost a perfect accurate moonball
over the outside shoulder to their receiver.
Speaker 3 (15:00):
They scored touch on they're up thirty to twenty.
Speaker 2 (15:02):
Yeah was that more? Was that the more touch?
Speaker 3 (15:04):
That was the past to more?
Speaker 4 (15:06):
Yeah again, Yeah, a lot of big time throws. But
I mean, I honestly thought we were dead. I can't
believe you didn't think we were dead when it came down.
Speaker 2 (15:14):
To that overtime.
Speaker 3 (15:15):
No, you know what, I thought it was dead.
Speaker 1 (15:17):
I wish we could do since we're such a high
production organization. Nice job Matt Mitchell and Gifford on the
on the adding the clip with Ulbrick. But in my notes,
I swear to God in my notes with about right
after Kyle Murray scored, Kyler Murray scored and they scored
(15:37):
was thirty to twenty seven. I wrote in my notes,
this is a nightmare scenario. This game's going to overtime.
We're gonna lose by six. That's exactly what I wrote
in my notes when he scored to make it thirty
to twenty seven. Like I saw OT six seven minutes
(15:59):
out from it happening. Forget about when it went to
ot when we got that coin flip.
Speaker 3 (16:05):
I like.
Speaker 1 (16:08):
The thrill I had with Carolina winning that coin flip
cannot be explained me too.
Speaker 4 (16:13):
And it especially just because of what had happened to
us in that late window. We went from being a
pretty cruise two and one to all of sudder, We're
looking at h and three, and I was just like,
this is literally our season in a nutshell, Like everything
just goes wrong in these fourth quarters for us with
these dogs, and it's just been this year. He's just
been a grind like our dogs. The only way dogs
hitting now is if they went outright basically.
Speaker 3 (16:33):
Like they have to be perfect nearly perfect, yeah.
Speaker 4 (16:36):
And they're just these breaks have to keep going their way,
Like it's it is crazy where you get these comfortable
leads and it's like no, like like you said, Carolina
gets up big and it's like we can still do
the gambling math and see how this could go the
other way and we could still not cover. But yeah,
a game that not that people are trying to talk
me off of it, but like a lot of people
(16:57):
I know were on the Cardinals and a lot of
heavy money came in late and bumped that number up,
like you just said, to five and a half. Some
books were at six a kickoff for that game. So
you know, that's one of those that's like a little
scary because it's a moving against us and we're like
already pot committed kind of on Carolina, Like we didn't
even talk about switching them out right.
Speaker 3 (17:15):
So no, we did. We did.
Speaker 1 (17:17):
We did talk about switching out Carolina and Washington.
Speaker 2 (17:22):
I would say Washington I would have understood, but like.
Speaker 3 (17:26):
We talked about both of them.
Speaker 4 (17:27):
Yeah, for Detroit once you said though five and a half.
Though for Carolina in my mind there was no way
I know of taking it out. But yeah, that that
would have been just a brutal beat to lose two
to again. The other time we covered two when they
lost in every time because it was a field goal.
But it was just like, man, they can't blow this game.
Like they played so well, Brace shungk played so and yeah,
(17:48):
again tough times for dogs Chef, Like two dogs we
took had to win outright for us to basically cover
the number.
Speaker 1 (17:55):
I have an idea for my next book, and it's
about sports betting, and gambler's math.
Speaker 3 (18:04):
Will be part of.
Speaker 1 (18:05):
This book because the math that everybody does when they
are trying to figure out not how they are going
to win a game, how they are going to get
fucked in a game is astonishing, and I wish like
everybody who isn't Dave sports Better knew that what everyone
(18:26):
else in the room who is a sports better was
doing in their head as they were watching any of
these games, because I like every scenario, I was thinking,
this is how we're gonna get screwed here, this is
how we're gonna get screwed here, this is how we're
going to get screwed here. And yet with these two games,
(18:46):
Carolina and now Washington, who we had it, I think
four and a half, right, yeah, four and a half
because that number money came steaming in on Philadelphia on
Sunday morning. This was a dead bat in the first quarter.
Oh yeah, they like they looked terrible. And this was
(19:07):
the game we really talked about putting in. We talked
about like Caroline in Washington, but really it was Washington,
like we felt most uncomfortable with this game. We both
did all week like it was your signon says, but
like it didn't really move in the direction we thought
it was going to move.
Speaker 4 (19:27):
No, it's another week of like, ole guys, I respect
old heads, you know, they're really loving that Eagles team,
and we basically saw it for that first quarter, Like
you just said, I was like, holy shit, they were right.
Speaker 2 (19:39):
We just walked right into us. They could not stop Barkley.
Speaker 4 (19:42):
Like I had so many guys talking to me about
this is a terrible matchup for Barkley. That quietly flipped
that once hers went out. Yeah, they were able to
stop Barkley. And you know, a game in which me
and Chad got incredibly lucky. Kenny Pickett did not lay
down and die. That kid played well in that game
and showed up in pretty big moments, and we basically
(20:04):
just needed a ton of little breaks to go away,
just because Washington came out, you know, not played their
worst game. Obviously, they put up over thirty points, but
five turnovers. You never come back from that with a
rookie against the number one defense on football, like.
Speaker 2 (20:18):
You never have that.
Speaker 4 (20:19):
So basically everything we talked about came true with that
Eagles team. In that spot where you have this emotional
high win against Pittsburgh, you come in and the littlest
thing went wrong with Hurts going out again. It's not
like they're reacted, they fell apart from it, but it
clearly messed up the mindset of the whole team altogether,
because that defense just didn't look right the rest of
(20:40):
the game for.
Speaker 2 (20:40):
The most part, like they were flying.
Speaker 4 (20:43):
To start the game, and then all of a sudden,
it kind of shifted the mood of the whole team.
And you know, props to Ketty Pickett. I mean, he
kept the Eagles in that game and gave us a sweat.
But Jayden Daniels, you know, just locked up Rookie of
the Year, just a truly incredible performance where his running back,
think you fumbled twice Robinson and he's throwing picks all
over the all over the place, and he still took
(21:04):
him down that final drive and a touchdown we had
to have because you know, like you just said, we
were on a bad number. It was on five because
of his stupid pick and that when he threw that
pick and they went to five, I was like, oh mean,
Chad are dead here.
Speaker 2 (21:15):
There's no way he's gonna drive the field with this
amount of time.
Speaker 4 (21:18):
And yeah, basically, DeVante Smith gave us the luckiest drop
and again the Eagles had had two losses this year
on drops. The saue to gets to Lanta in this
drop year, and it's like me and Chad needed that
got really lucky. It happened, but it was like the
classic thing of you know, it was eventually going to
break away some of these some of these games just
(21:39):
because we had been so historically unlucky. So yeah, pretty
insane that all came down to Devonte drop because I
think when they scored, there might have been six seconds
left and he would have caught that it went to
the would have went to the two minute and the
way first down, so they basical would have it would
have been over.
Speaker 3 (21:52):
They would have run it out at thirty three twenty eight.
Speaker 5 (21:54):
Uh.
Speaker 1 (21:57):
We talked about putting the Lions in here, and there
was a moment, as always happens back to back, Saquon
scores on a sixty eight yard touchdown right after Jamison
Williams for the Lions catches.
Speaker 3 (22:11):
An eighty yard bomb.
Speaker 1 (22:13):
In that moment, I was having such regret, Like I'm like,
I was just thinking, well, at least the Jets are dominating,
and at least the Panthers are dominating.
Speaker 3 (22:26):
But like I was truly having.
Speaker 1 (22:28):
Such better as regret even with herts out, they're down
twenty one to seven. I felt like we were always
in it because Kenny Pickett played great in the end.
But the reason Saquon didn't do anything is because the
commanders knew Kenny Pickett wasn't going to be able to
do anything, and they could just load the box and
stop Saquon from getting any yardage whatsoever. And they still
(22:52):
did everything they could to throw this game away. Between
the two picks Jayden Nanna fumble in the second half,
AJ Brown drew sixty eight yards of pass interference penalties
on Marshawn Lattimore. That was as many yards almost as
he had in the first half receiving, Like can you.
Pickett had two great plays, one of them on fourth
and seven to AJ. But we got very lucky in
(23:15):
that game. Even on the game winning play. If you watch,
you're gonna go back and watch the film. I know,
on the game winning play, see how early the commander's
right tackle went.
Speaker 3 (23:27):
He was like, I'd say.
Speaker 1 (23:32):
Zero point two to point three seconds before the snap,
like to the point where my kids sitting next to me.
He goes, well, there's a flag. I'm like, what he
goes the right tackle went early. I'm like, I know,
but they didn't throw it like it was so obvious,
and I was surprised the announcers didn't say anything, cause,
like it was, it was so fundamentally clear. I thought
we were just gonna lose it on that.
Speaker 4 (23:53):
Yeah, and the refs though, are all bizarre, Like think
some of those calls against AJ were just upscene like
they literally but the Eagles basically drive the field for
that whole kept calling holds in past interference. But yeah,
for me, it's, you know, a game where we got lucky,
we played the number, but we always talk about there's
(24:14):
certain spots, and that was just a bad spot for
that Eagles team. And now they're in a position that
you know, they have some real decisions to make. How
bad this hurts concussion is because obviously couldn't come back
in this game.
Speaker 2 (24:24):
So you know, as an.
Speaker 4 (24:25):
Eagles fan, I'm happy it's nothing to do with his body,
but we all know how hard it is to come
back from cushions. Depending on the concussion, right, if this
is a bad one, he could be out to the playoffs.
If it's not that big of a deal, like we'll
know early in this week. Obviously come back this week.
But yeah, we were never going to cover this number.
If it was Jalen Hurts in the full game.
Speaker 3 (24:42):
Yeah, totally not New England at Buffalo.
Speaker 1 (24:45):
So, you know, eight favorites cover in the early window,
including Michael Pennix and the huge favorites over the Giants
which we never considered, and the Lions at six and
a half, which we thought about, and the Bengals at
seven and a half, which, excuse me, which grew even
(25:06):
bigger as we got I think it was close to
ten before kickoff.
Speaker 2 (25:11):
Only three. You know, if only three dogs covered this
whole weekend, right.
Speaker 3 (25:14):
Yeah, it's absurd.
Speaker 1 (25:17):
Well, it depends, it depends, because anyways, we didn't choose
any of those. We went all in on the Buffalo Bills.
We I mean me to the point where even professional
Better was worried about my sanity, because why wouldn't you
bet the best player in a home game in which
he historically dominates and covers huge numbers against a really
(25:41):
really terrible team who's got offensive turmoil and a defense
that hasn't been able to stop anybody all year. Oh yeah,
the Bills couldn't stop anybody. Drake May looked like Josh
Allen pass were five of eight on third downs, They
were one for one on fourth down in the first
half because the execu to fake punt from their own
twenty two like the Pats game seven and a half
(26:04):
yurs per play, it was a freaking debacle.
Speaker 4 (26:10):
Yeah, it's kind of game. It's the best. It's the
dream if you bet the dog in it. Because, like
you just said, Drake May came out firing and he
looked ready for this game, where Josh Allen looked all
out of sorts. Like we talked about it, you know,
we tried catching on him against the Lions because we
knew he was gonna he was due for a bad game.
They had done something that strike, they had scored thirty
points or more eighth straight games.
Speaker 2 (26:31):
Eventually goes the other way.
Speaker 4 (26:33):
It's just, I mean, he is superhuman, but it's like,
you know, a lot of we talked about a lot
of the throws he was making. They were bad decisions.
They were working out for him because he's just that talented.
In this game, he just didn't get away over it right,
The bounces didn't go his way. They're clearly the better
team in every metric. Like when they when they wanted
to turn it on, they did turn it on. You know, defensively,
they completely stopped everything that Patriots had momentum wise.
Speaker 2 (26:56):
I mean they were up.
Speaker 4 (26:57):
Yeah fourteen early in the second quarter and they didn't
score another point until the very last two minutes of
the game. So that just shows like obviously the Bill's defense,
you know, it's a big worry.
Speaker 2 (27:06):
Everyone's talking about it. We know that they're they're they're
not as.
Speaker 4 (27:10):
Terrible as they've looked against all these offenses last couple
of weeks, but there is something to it. Like you
talked earlier, in that game, Drake May was moving up
and down the field and they're running the ball down
the Bill's throat. So Josh Allen basically was the one
that screwed the end of this. Like their defense did enough,
they got us a defensive touchdown. You figure Josh Allen's
(27:30):
gonna cover that number. You know, got a little banged up,
but it was just at the end of the day,
he just had an off night. Like even Cook had
a good game running the ball like he was all about.
Josh Allen, he just finally had a bad game. So yeah,
if he has another one, lamar noise starts becoming a
little more more real. Right, It's it's it's gonna get
a little tighter here because he does have an easy
(27:52):
schedule ending here. He's gonna go New England to Now
he's playing the Jets to back to New England. So yeah,
well we'll see what the injury is for Joshulling on
his hand or if it's his elbow. But tough, tough
bet that we lost this one, especially because every favorite cover,
Like we talked Detroit, you try to talk.
Speaker 2 (28:10):
Me into Cincy.
Speaker 4 (28:12):
I couldn't get there that number one from seven and
a half up to nine and a half by kickoff.
They got crazy lucky to cover that number. I mean
very lucky every little thing. I think they had two
or three red zone turnovers, you know, walking touchdown call
back on a holding for the Browns.
Speaker 2 (28:30):
They go down and score a touchdown.
Speaker 4 (28:31):
They didn't even need to score, right, they're trying to
run the clock out, they jump off.
Speaker 2 (28:34):
He just throws a purflet ball to Chase.
Speaker 4 (28:36):
So uh, it's just been that kind of season chat
where it's like, you know, we're not we're not favorite betters.
Speaker 2 (28:42):
We've been trying to do it.
Speaker 4 (28:43):
Even this week, I thought favorites were gonna get smoked,
like the public. They're just betting these moneyline parlays of
all these favorites and they're just cashing every week. It's crazy,
but they did it again. So yeah, hopefully the dog
that we like tonight comes through again. It's a professional side.
We've seen it cut down to three and a half
in a couple of books now this Cowboys line, so.
Speaker 2 (29:06):
Still feel confident about it.
Speaker 4 (29:07):
But after seeing all these Favorite stage chat it's like,
I don't know what I'm looking at. It's just it
doesn't make sense. We're in a Twilight world right now.
Speaker 1 (29:14):
We're going to talk about week seventeen on the other
side of this read and I said before we came
on the air, I feel like I'm reading hieroglyphics because
I don't know how to look at this sort of
on Sunday night in the heat of the moment without
taking a beat and really breaking some of it down
and trying to think about the scenario. So I'm curious
to get your take on some of these. I got
(29:35):
two or three games that sort of like felt right,
but I was also in my head just working so
hard to figure out where's my bias and blind spot
on Favorite, So I'm going to give you a minute,
you'll take a look at the lines. I'm going to
do our read for game Time, Simon, can you name
(29:59):
the best ticketing app in the United States?
Speaker 2 (30:01):
Again in game Time?
Speaker 1 (30:03):
That's right, it's our beloved sponsor game Time. I have
a no joke.
Speaker 3 (30:08):
You're not gonna believe this.
Speaker 1 (30:09):
You know, I am an avid user of all the
products of our regular sponsors. Here's an example of how avid.
So like last night, my younger son goes into New
York City, goes into the city with a couple of
his buddies staying overnight at his grandma's. They're all going
to stay there because she just moved into Manhattan. He
(30:32):
calls me around five point thirty last night and he
says that they all want to go to the Nets
game at Barclay's. They're playing the Jazz in Brooklyn. I
told him I'd buy the tickets for all them, but
no more than fifty bucks each. While on FaceTime, he
opened the game Time app that's on his phone. He
clicked on the net Jazz game, went to the top
(30:53):
deals that are featured in a row. When you click
on the game top. We both while we're looking at it,
see the all in price for fifty one dollars for
three three tickets fifty one each clicks It hits pay.
It was done three clicks. He had the tickets. It
was seamless and perfect.
Speaker 3 (31:13):
No joke.
Speaker 1 (31:13):
This is a real world example. I'm going to open
the game Time app right now from my house here
in Connecticut. We're probably going to go see a Yukon
women's game this week less than thirty five dollars to
get in. My favorite part about game Time the all
in pricing I just mentioned. It shows me the total
cost upfront, no surprises, no matter where you live. Take
the guest work out of buying tickets with game Time.
(31:35):
Download the game Time app, creat an account, use code
favorites favori tes for twenty dollars off your first purchase. Again,
creat an account redeem code favorites. That's favor i tes
for twenty dollars off.
Speaker 3 (31:53):
Download game Time today. What time is it? Game time?
Here's the good for us? Passes our passes today.
Speaker 1 (32:00):
We didn't bet the Giants even though we like were like,
should we really bet or skip a game? In which
is a rookie quarterback who's a touchdown plus favorite.
Speaker 2 (32:10):
Biggest favorite NFL history for first start for a rookie.
Speaker 3 (32:13):
And he covered with no problem. We didn't bet he
was he looked good.
Speaker 4 (32:15):
He didn't throw a touchdown pass covered, he still looked good.
That is crazy to think that's how bad Drew Lock is.
Speaker 1 (32:22):
He throws a really good ball. Well, look, there were
two pick sixes. We didn't bet the Titans. Every one
in the betting community was taking the bait. We did
not take.
Speaker 2 (32:31):
No.
Speaker 3 (32:31):
They almost came close, man.
Speaker 2 (32:34):
That is and shout out to bet three six five.
I did.
Speaker 4 (32:37):
I bet on their site. I did a money line
parlay with the Colts and they paid it out early
and I was just so happy when the OLSNAT Titans
come back up and I was like, oh, the Colts
are going to blow this in. Anthony Richardson would eleven completions,
had a big, big third down throw.
Speaker 1 (32:52):
Oh my god, so crazy. That was a crazy game. Unfortunately,
we just couldn't pick the right favorite.
Speaker 4 (33:00):
Yeah, this week came down to it, right, we'd have
been three and one if we had picked the right one.
We both love Detroit, but once again the books are
fucking up where it's like the line was too easy.
It was six and a half all week and everyone
in their grandma was hammering that line Detroit. It was
ninety percent of the tickets, ninety percent of the bets.
It was like twenty to one the tickets to the
(33:21):
money was on Detroit.
Speaker 2 (33:23):
What are the books doing? I don't get it. What
are they doing?
Speaker 4 (33:27):
Like they're just killing me because it's throwing me off
or it's like that looked too good to be truly.
Even we talked about this morning. I was like, I said,
you are we the suckers taking this Detroit? Like we
always go against this? It felt too easy, and nope,
it is. It is that easy right now.
Speaker 2 (33:41):
That Bears team is just totally dysfunctional.
Speaker 1 (33:44):
Yeah, what we said, like that Bear's team, they they're
so unprepared to start the game that you really you
can't bet them. You know, it's just too you can't
because they don't have the coaching to get them ready
for the game and they were out of it before
the game started. It was over week seventeen. There were
three games when I was looking through the Action app
(34:06):
at the early lines for next week.
Speaker 3 (34:07):
When I was walking up to my office after the
Bill's game.
Speaker 1 (34:13):
Immediately I looked at that Atlanta game plus five on
the road at Washington.
Speaker 3 (34:21):
I don't know why.
Speaker 1 (34:23):
Maybe I'm a sucker because I felt like the Commanders
were terrible and Pennix was awesome. But maybe this is
where it's a dead number and it's not the Eagles,
and like maybe that's the favorite we play. I'm at
a loss right now. Do you have thoughts on that?
Speaker 4 (34:42):
I don't have an opinion on it, but I feel
like you're probably right where that line does look fishy
where you know, I'm assuming I'll have this model out
at three three and a half because I agree with you.
I think he looked much better than I anticipated. And
this is a tough spot though rookie second start primetime
game in Washington, but we expect Washington coming off that
(35:03):
win to you know, sem, I have a letdown, but
they just survived the five turnovers.
Speaker 2 (35:08):
I don't know.
Speaker 4 (35:08):
I don't know how to really read that one, but
interesting number to open up five for the books.
Speaker 1 (35:13):
Yeah, it's a real middleman number there, middle of the
ground number, middle of the road. Having a hard time
with it. I looked at the Rams as favorites, four
point favorites against Arizona. This felt like all right, like,
now it's.
Speaker 2 (35:31):
Already a five.
Speaker 3 (35:32):
It's I'm seeing Jesus Christ.
Speaker 1 (35:34):
I missed it already, so I was clearly on the
right side there, like because this.
Speaker 2 (35:39):
Is a nice spot for the Rams. Yeah, I mean Kyler.
Speaker 4 (35:42):
I don't know if Color was crying on the bench
the end of that Carolina game, but they basically found
out that they're their season's over.
Speaker 3 (35:48):
Yeah, they're done, and like here now.
Speaker 2 (35:50):
La and Connor got hurt, I believe.
Speaker 1 (35:52):
Yeah, and La is in the driver's seat. So that
looked like a good one for me. The last one
that I was.
Speaker 4 (35:57):
Still don't mind it as long as it's under six.
We're right, there's no rush to bet now that's already
been hit, right.
Speaker 1 (36:02):
The last one on my radar was Green Bay as
a one and a half point dog at Minnesota. I
think I think Minnesota is getting lucky right now, like
I think green Bay.
Speaker 3 (36:17):
I look at that team. I don't know.
Speaker 1 (36:20):
Why I think they're so good, but if I can
get Green Bay as a dog at any point, I
want to take them.
Speaker 2 (36:26):
Interesting. Yeah, I was.
Speaker 4 (36:28):
I was ready to jump off the green Bay train
because IM probably gonna d up taking them tomorrow night.
I know we have convinced me. So I don't wanna
give away too much because we're doing the show tomorrow.
People should check it out on YouTube. But yeah, this
this Packers team, they're gonna be everyone batting on, right
because I think people have your mindset. The vikings that
to me was a scheduled loss, and they still somehow
(36:48):
stole it there at the end, like Sam Darnold getting destroyed,
eating up throwing absolutely dimes down the sideline to Justin
Jefferson like that. The stat in the Ansler read that
there's been two or to Rex in NFL history to
go to a new team and win the more than
thirteen games in their first season in Sam Manning with
Denver and then Steve McNair his first year with the
(37:09):
Ravens and six it was like, oh, these shit, this
is truly a wacko world we're living in right now.
Speaker 1 (37:14):
Sam Donald like, but you know what's interesting about him.
There's things that they're doing on offense that are brilliant.
There's also things that they're doing because his arm is
so freaking strong, Like he is throwing these outs across
the field from the opposite hash on a rope and
these are fifteen yard outs. They're not these short five
(37:38):
yard outs that so many guys throw now that they
can do because his arm is so good like that
is he's stone at fifty yards in the air for
fifteen yard games. It's it's pretty astonishing.
Speaker 4 (37:50):
Yeah, I mean, obviously Kevin O'Connell deserves because of the year.
What this even some of this stuff, he's probably just
in the back of my mind, like I never would
have expected this with this kid, Like.
Speaker 3 (38:02):
You know, Kat's green or whatever.
Speaker 1 (38:05):
Yeah, did you see when they were reading that stat
you just said on the air. He was walking across
and he was clapping and he was like almost smirking.
Speaker 3 (38:12):
He was like, got away with that one.
Speaker 2 (38:14):
Yeah, And it's just.
Speaker 4 (38:18):
A whole predicament that they put the vikings in now
because you know, Sam Donald, this is the dream for him.
When he was coming out of college, we all knew
he had the arm talent. He was a twenty one
year old at the time, who were like, Okay, if
he gets reps, can figure it out.
Speaker 2 (38:31):
He could be a stud in this league. And he
went through years.
Speaker 4 (38:35):
Of just psychological warfare, like this guy basically got cold
on camera saying that he was seeing ghosts. Yeah, and
couldn't live it down for I don't even know what
was that five years, six years and his confidence level
right now, I mean there's only one person more confident.
Speaker 2 (38:50):
Was saying about Sam Donald's.
Speaker 4 (38:52):
Colin Cowherd, like those two guys are peak right now
because it's it's insane what we've seen from him this season.
Like even in my wild of streams, I could never
seen this season come from. So that's my fear right
now with this number chat is that Green Bay will
be the public side. And I think people have the
same entity view of this Vikings team keep getting caught
and I'm another way where I'm.
Speaker 2 (39:11):
Like this has everything.
Speaker 4 (39:13):
Everything about this has lined up for them to be
the one seed and then losing in their first round
or the second round whenever they play the Bucks or
the Eagles or somebody, because it's like you said, their
luck right now, and the one score games has just
been insane. Every one score game they somehow find a
way to win, whether it's overtime or you know, the
last minute drive by Sam Darnold and then making the
(39:35):
stop defensively, Like it's just been all clicking for this
Vikings team and it's it really is crazy at this point.
So I can't get there with you with Green Bay
right now, I'm a little spooked about this Vikings team.
Speaker 1 (39:46):
I had the Seahawks plus three and a half and
from early nights, and I love this game for the
Seahawks at plus.
Speaker 4 (39:54):
Another game, the books moved at two and a half
for a day and a half got slaughtered.
Speaker 1 (39:58):
Yeah, exactly, And that's why we didn't talk about it
for the contest, like you didn't love it because it moved,
and we were both worried about Geno Smith and so
once it had gone off to three and a half.
But in the end, I'm like, oh shit, Gino's gonna
throw a pick six here, like an easy one. I'm
gonna lose this fucking bet, all right, So who are
you looking at?
Speaker 4 (40:18):
I'm grabbing Cowboys right now. It's seven and a half.
I don't know what the deal is with Hurtz. I
don't know how banged up he is. If this is
gonna Kenny Pickett, if they're gonna be cautious year we
just talked about it. I don't know what the Eagles
are playing for at this point, Like, yes, they want
to win this game, but you know, we've seen time
and time again this rivalry. Like even when the Cowboys
are playing their backups, they play hard in this one.
(40:39):
So it's just really picking the number. It's seven and
a half me, me and Chad Hope. What happens tonight,
does happen where the Cowboys either went out right or
cover the number, This will definitely be six and a half.
And then if it's obviously Kenny Pickett, who knows could
be four and a half if it's Kenny Pickett and
keep dropping. So this is just a number I'm gonna
grab now just because it's a key number and there's
(40:59):
your so much up in the air, and I just want.
Speaker 1 (41:02):
To emphasize, like that's what people need to do. We
took the Chiefs last week at two and a half,
not knowing what was going on with my homes and
it turned out to be he was playing and they
were been going away and we had the plus two
and a half from early in the week when there
was uncertainty.
Speaker 4 (41:20):
Yeah, so that's just what I'm grabbing now. Again, I
don't want to hit these games too much just because
we're going through it. Ouption convince me, But yeah, in
a normal year, I would be hammering the Steelers on Christmas.
Speaker 2 (41:35):
They are right now a plus two dog.
Speaker 4 (41:37):
So that's another thing I don't know what to do
where it's like the simple person, the dumb guy is, well,
it's Mahomes under three, and you always take Mahomes under three,
and it's like, this guy's been money with the favorites
this year, so it's it's tough for me to fight
through that one. That's when we're going to break down
obviously more.
Speaker 1 (41:54):
Well, look, here's one thing I will say, and I
said this, I'm convincing me this morning before we went
on air. What kind of world are we living in
where you can't even count on fading Mahomes as a
more than three point favorite, which you have normally been
able to do, when he's won two weeks in a
row as a more than three point favorite. And you
can't count on betting on Mike Tomlin as a underdog,
(42:17):
especially as a big dog in this raven Steelers rivalry,
and he's lost two weeks in a row as a
plus four and a half, plus five and a half,
plus six and a half dog. So now we've got
Rock meeting the hard place next week, where you were
dying to bet on Mahomes at under three.
Speaker 4 (42:32):
Taking that's all I was about to say that I
took the two you did, yeah, because my whole thought
process is it is a Mahomes under three. And we
talked about that. Russell Wilson might have turned back into
a pumpkin because we.
Speaker 3 (42:44):
Hasn't had George Pickens. What if he has George Pickens
this week.
Speaker 2 (42:48):
That could be the difference.
Speaker 4 (42:49):
But he has just made such poor decisions where they
were thriving because he was being smart protecting the ball
and not putting them in a bad position. And that's
he just put them in such a bad position. Look,
I still can't believe they cover that number. It just
totally went sideways. They're about to go up fourteen to
seven against the Ravens. He has that bad fumble and
then after that he's just chasing the rest of the game.
(43:10):
And that's that's not ever we want rust to be.
So again, bizarre number to hang by the books. You know,
another game that just jumps out of you know, just
a bizarre number of the books are hanging here early.
You can get Bengals minus three against Denver on Saturday at.
Speaker 1 (43:27):
Home, So I saw that and I thought they were
what is that three? I looked at that, and I'm like,
I feel like they're playing us because Joe Burrow is
so unworldly right now, he's locked in, and so they're
(43:48):
looking They're like their defense is so bad. I feel
like there's a big difference between what Sean Payton will
do with bo Nix, who has played well against for
his defenses, versus what Stefanski can do with Dorian Thompson Robinson.
So I just felt like they were inflating that a
(44:08):
little bit more than they ship that. I felt like
they were trying to suck me in.
Speaker 2 (44:12):
That's fair.
Speaker 4 (44:13):
It was just it was just another game that jumped
out to me where it's like, these lines are interesting,
They're hanging here because you're right, gut instinct.
Speaker 2 (44:19):
Is just to bet this. Yeah, I could see it being.
Speaker 4 (44:22):
Three and a half in us being on Denverse. You're right,
I won't have to rush to this one. That was
definitely a favor that opened up that called my attention.
Here's another one we just talked about. Josh Allen might
be a little banged up jets or plus ten. I
know it's too raw right now. Oh God, I'm just
gonna grab it just because it is plus ten, Like
that's that's a huge number for a Josh Allen that
(44:43):
might be a little banged up. But like this, this
him having back to back bad games that I'm not
betting on. So that's that's issue where it's like, I'm
not going to force us to put this one in.
It's just about playing this number just in case Josh
Allen is banged up, if he has a brace on
his finger or his elbow, whatever, another team that it
might be all locked up for this game. The Chiefs
might beat Pittsburgh Chad and they might not really be
(45:05):
playing for anything at that point. So there's just another
number I'm gonna play like the Cowboys, just in case
it does move.
Speaker 1 (45:09):
If anyone can find a way to screw it up.
It's Aaron Rodgers and Jeff obrah that's fair. Anyone else
was at it, No.
Speaker 4 (45:21):
Because there's like favorites. I like that, Like I'm gonna
say it for our show. Just I'm just worried I'm
just suggesting too much here. But Detroit's minus three and
a half against the forty niners. The forty nine ers
look like they quit a years ago. Usually I have
fadom on that number, but it's just.
Speaker 2 (45:35):
A bad line.
Speaker 4 (45:36):
And Miami's right now is minus six against Cleveland. I
kind of want to take Cleveland there, but I feel
like I'm getting sucked in once again where it's like, no,
go Miami. But it's just it might be cold as
hell in Cleveland, and now it's two at a six
six point favorite on the road in cold ass Cleveland.
Speaker 2 (45:53):
I take that number right now.
Speaker 3 (45:55):
I looked.
Speaker 1 (45:55):
I didn't think about Detroit because it felt like because
that game's in San Francisco, right, Yeah, Yeah, it felt
like someone's trying to fuck me on.
Speaker 2 (46:07):
That and it always feels that way.
Speaker 3 (46:10):
Yeah, the Miami today was six and a half.
Speaker 1 (46:12):
Right, But that's the problem is like we're looking at
favorites and the book is posting these numbers knowing that
they're sucking us in and it doesn't matter because they
keep losing and we keep ignoring them and the public
keeps winning.
Speaker 3 (46:27):
Like the public.
Speaker 1 (46:28):
Favorites today were the Bills, who of course we faded,
uh we took, and the Bengals who covered, and the
third team was Detroit. I looked at Miami minus six,
I'm like, yeah, I'm gonna want to play Miami against Cleveland,
and then I'm like, well, shoot, it's to in the cold.
And now we're just overthinking it. So look, there's a
(46:49):
lot to unpack. I think I think the best idea
is take the Rams. Take Dallas plus seven and a half,
because we don't know what happened with her. It's like,
get the good number. I like your idea for Kansas
City minus two, but it makes me a little nervous.
But we'll break it down more on Tuesday at eleven
(47:09):
am Eastern Early show for Christmas Eve. As a reminder,
the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five
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(47:29):
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Speaker 3 (47:35):
And more.
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Catch our next episode live a special early time on Tuesday,
(48:00):
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