January 5, 2025 • 46 mins
Another NFL regular season is in the books as Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter faithfully return to discuss all things betting for NFL Week 18. Together they talk about a disappointing season in their contest, a cakewalk in the Mile High City, and the fresh NFL Super Wild Card Weekend lines. We get a recap of all their weekly picks, good and bad, as they take accountability before a massive Sunday Night Football game kicks off in the Motor City.
#Volume #Herd
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast, presented by BET
three sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network,
live from our Tommy John Home studios. I am Chad
Mellman of the Action Network. It is our Sunday night episode.
We're going to review for one last time this football season.
The five picks we put into the contest, they are
(00:30):
reflective of our entire season so far. We're going to
dissect a little bit about why we left some games out,
but that is not the main event. The main event
is we're going to preview the early lines we already
like for wildcard playoffs. Some of them are moving already
across key numbers. I'm joined at as always by my
co host, my companion Mike and Padre, and my bff
(00:51):
professional Better Simon Hunter et O Simon.
Speaker 2 (00:54):
Hello, Chad, what a day, brother.
Speaker 3 (00:56):
Took eighteen weeks man.
Speaker 1 (00:58):
Prior to today, we had seventeen weeks of dogs shitting
the bed of Favorites, playing perfectly, of living through the
exact opposite of everything we had relied upon as betters
for years, years, and then today the dogs they finally
(01:22):
started barking. The bear is covered, the cowboys covered the
Jacks covered, the Saints covers, the Patriots covered, the Panthers covered,
even the Texans as dogs against the Tennessee Titans covered.
Speaker 3 (01:37):
Of course, the.
Speaker 1 (01:38):
Giants did not cover. Somehow, the Giants ended up in
our final five, even.
Speaker 3 (01:43):
Though like.
Speaker 1 (01:46):
Every other game looked more attractive because the Giants were
already be playing all their backups and their third stringers,
so it didn't matter who they were playing. I don't
know how we ended up with that. We did have
the Panthers, which is great because we've been banking on
them for weeks.
Speaker 3 (02:00):
We had the Jags. We had the Chiefs.
Speaker 1 (02:03):
That was a bit of a bomber, but everyone seemed
to like them, so they all took a hip. We're
two and two on the day with the Vikings plus
three and a half tonight, let's break it down more importantly.
Speaker 3 (02:13):
We're going to talk.
Speaker 1 (02:13):
About what we are seeing for any of the early
playoff lines. We got four lines posted for the four
games that we know are set. Obviously, we're waiting on
two NFC matchups tonight based on the Vikings and the
Lions results.
Speaker 3 (02:27):
Catch every episode of the Favorites live on YouTube.
Speaker 1 (02:30):
For those on YouTube, don't forget to kIPS, like and
subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page as a reminder
of the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three sixty
five and now new Bet three sixty five. Customers get
one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets when you
bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites, deposit
ten dollars. Plays a bet for five dollars to get
(02:52):
one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus
bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,
and more.
Speaker 3 (02:58):
Whatever the moment. It's never ordinary area.
Speaker 1 (03:00):
Bet three sixty five must be twenty one or older
and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina,
New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia where eighteen or older in Kentucky.
Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight
hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. Let's
start with some housekeeping. People want to know performance. How
(03:24):
we did during the year. It was not pretty all
the time. Foxhol started out h to six, ended eight
eight and two Simon says nine, eight and one, executive
decision five and thirteen.
Speaker 3 (03:43):
Big Balls Better The.
Speaker 1 (03:45):
Week presented by Tommy Johns started four and ZHO ended
eight and ten. That's what happens when you're constantly betting
home underdogs. We'll give out the final record from the
contest at the end of the show. It's not going
to be good New York Giants plus two and a
half at Philly.
Speaker 3 (04:05):
How do we end up with the Giants?
Speaker 1 (04:07):
Of all the dogs that like had things locked up
or needed to win to stay like, the Giants were
the only ones who were who were never in it.
Speaker 3 (04:21):
I mean they were down four.
Speaker 2 (04:23):
They had a chance at the end there, and they
obviously punted the ball back to the Eagles. I don't
think they got the ball back, but yeah, better bad
number was a bad bet. We basically bet on a
team that you know, should have realized they came off
their Super Bowl and yeah, our quarterback Drew lock in
that first half, did nothing, basically put up a gooseg
(04:44):
in Tanry McKee didn't even play that great, but he
played well enough to get them to seventeen points, which
you know, I guess they won. They got twenty at
the end there. But yeah, Eagles, like you just said,
Eagles playing their backups. The Giants been playing their backups
for weeks. Look like the Giants or the team that
was rusty. So yeah, that was a bad one and
(05:05):
obviously it's even more brutal. And that's the only dog
that doesn't cover the early slate. So it's thanks. We
had a lot of dogs we liked.
Speaker 3 (05:12):
This week ended up on a bad one at a
bad number.
Speaker 1 (05:15):
Did not come through bad, very bad, all bad all
the way around, because we liked We talked about the Bears,
we talked about the freaking Saints, like the number of
parlays we had on the money line and on these
underdogs to cover. The Giants were barely in any any
of these things for me.
Speaker 3 (05:37):
But whatever, at least it's over.
Speaker 1 (05:40):
Malik Neighbors did set a Giants record for most receptions
in a season, and the announcers were making such a
big deal about this because really it's their job, and
what else are you going to do? Can you think
of a Giants receiver in history that's actually worth fawning
(06:00):
over other than Odell who was not historically great or
even great for longevity?
Speaker 3 (06:08):
Can you think of one Plexico man.
Speaker 1 (06:10):
Come on, dude, come on, I'm thinking historically great like
the way and this by the way, tumor no. The
answer to my next question will prove my point because
they were making such a big deal Malik Neighbors franchise
record for most receptions in a season.
Speaker 3 (06:29):
That's a big deal.
Speaker 1 (06:30):
Oh my god, it's so amazing the Giants, such a
historic franchise. I could not think of anybody who is
worthy as a great receiver, a Hall of Fame caliber
receiver for the New York Football Giants. And then, because
I'm like, who cares, like, it's the freaking Giants right
then they gave the answer to who set the record.
(06:51):
Do you know who it was.
Speaker 2 (06:54):
Who had the Giants record or the NFL.
Speaker 3 (06:56):
Giants record for most receptions in the season.
Speaker 2 (07:00):
Hmm, that's shocking. It's not Odell.
Speaker 1 (07:05):
Steve Steve Smith, and not the Steve Smith you're thinking of,
the one who's finalist for.
Speaker 2 (07:11):
The Eagle Steve Smith.
Speaker 3 (07:13):
Steve Smith, I.
Speaker 1 (07:14):
Think he went to like USC or something, was it
early two thousands, Like, that's the guy who set the record.
So that says all you need to know about how
much this team needs a reset.
Speaker 2 (07:26):
I don't know, it's I'd be excited, like they they
got their receiver. Now they just need an offensive line
and a quarterback. Yeah, good luck Giants.
Speaker 1 (07:34):
Ask the Bears how that's going. You just need an
offensive line. You just need a quarterback. You got your receivers.
You're fine on the edges. You just need those two things.
Easier said than done. Jacksonville at Indy. We had Jacksonville
plus three and a half. You know how the people
(07:56):
who run the media, all the NFL executives who decide
when they're really going to what games on red zone,
how little they think of Jacksonville and Indy, even though
it was a riveting game. Because in the first half,
despite multiple lead changes and a field goal less than
(08:16):
forty seconds in a half, I think out of red
zone I saw maybe three.
Speaker 3 (08:20):
Plays from this game.
Speaker 1 (08:22):
They would just go to it like, you know, after
the fact, they weren't going to it in real time.
They'd show you the highlight. But this was a great game,
played exactly the way we thought it would.
Speaker 3 (08:34):
Yeah, it was a definitely a corner of TV.
Speaker 2 (08:36):
At the sports book, there was me and a couple
other guys all huddled around it I mean, the funny
thing was that next to that TV in the corner
was that Buck Saints game. I think after maybe the
first quarter they moved to the main TV. It was like, okay,
this because people are going wild about you know, Survivor
Contest every like that. I mean, it really was a
really fun day at the book sweating out Survivor Contest
(09:00):
people like us who are betting dogs, like there's a
lot of dog love in the building today, and yeah,
it was. It was pretty surreal, uh, coming down the
wire for a lot of those games, So yeah, I
get what you're saying, though definitely was not you know,
they went to overtime and I think maybe five of
us knew that because even red Zone didn't cut into it.
(09:20):
And in overtime, man, I thank god I didn't text you.
I was going to text you, but basically got overtime
and they the Colts, got the ball first, and I
just in my mind was like, oh my god, here
hear me and Chad go again. And you know, another
game we did today went overtime, so at the same time,
I was just like, oh my god, deja vu. Two
dogs going over time. But yeah, like we're hoping chat
(09:43):
looks like it's the year of the Dog, because you
know they've got a big fourth down stop that Jags team,
and you know, got the field going overtime. But Mac Jones,
man like, it was crazy how he kept getting us
back from the dead. We kept getting touchdowns from him,
He kept doing it, got that field goal at the
end and go to overtime. And yeah on fourth and
twenty two through a nice middle of the field fifteen
(10:05):
yard pass just to end the game. Put us out
our misery. No pick six, no strip sack, no passing behind.
So felt good, you know, better good number. You know,
I had a ton of money on four and a half,
a bunch of money on four obviously, some money on
the three and a half, and I'm just like, oh
my god, I'm going to lose all these numbers. And
it was nice, nice thing. It kind of felt like
(10:25):
the game win as it should. The Colts just don't
cover against the Jaguards. It's bizarre, but we love those
type of trends and I'm happy it came through for
us and the fans.
Speaker 3 (10:35):
Here's a theory.
Speaker 1 (10:36):
So ever since Mac Jones started playing, this team had
played with more fire, more passion, they were scrappier, more energized,
seemed to be having so much more fun than when
Trevor Lawrence was playing. Right, And you think back to
Doug Peterson when he was the Eagles coach. When did
he have his greatest success.
Speaker 3 (10:59):
The six seven, eight week run.
Speaker 1 (11:03):
After the superstar MVP caliber quarterback Carson Wentz went out
and he had Nick Foles backup quarterback, Everyone's rallying around
the guy. Is it possible that Doug Peterson is a
better scrappy, not as talented quarterback coach than he is
(11:27):
a uber talented quarterback head coach.
Speaker 2 (11:34):
No, what helped him is he got to play Tennessee
to it the last five weeks, so he got two
wins there. And obviously, I mean you joked about that
Colts team is just atrocious, Like Brian Thompson Jr. Was
just such It's crazy different levels he guys are at.
He's at such a different level than anyone that could
even defend him on the Colts team. So, yeah, Mac Jones,
(11:54):
he knew the assignment. Just throw it down the Brian
Thompson junior, he'll get it. And yeah, he saved our
asked today because I'm not gonna lie. They drove to
field that opening possession scored a touchdown. The cold time,
I was like, well, we basically he met the answer
and he did. And you know, we didn't even talk
about yet that Panthers game. But you know, there's a
lot of things happened in a two minute warning in
(12:15):
both these games. And in this game, you know, I
think they're down seven and a half time because you
know they kicked the ball back.
Speaker 3 (12:20):
Yeah, was able to drive.
Speaker 2 (12:22):
The field and get a field goal. So tough, tough
when you're always behind it. But it's like we always say,
like we trusted the number, trusted the spot, and yeah,
it's nice when it comes through with the the numbering
literally land exactly what we thought it should. You said
the number should be three. It was three and a half.
We took the value and it came through.
Speaker 1 (12:38):
The announcers on the Texans Titans games said something interesting.
They talked about Davis Mills and him trying to perform
so well for the Texans, and Davis Mills said to them,
He's like, look, these games might not mean anything, but
just someone like me, it's extra time in the league
(12:59):
as a backup court, her.
Speaker 3 (13:00):
Back if I play well, and Carson Wentz that same thing.
What's that said?
Speaker 2 (13:04):
Carson Wentz said the same thing.
Speaker 3 (13:05):
Well, he might have cut his time in half.
Speaker 1 (13:08):
Mac Jones, I feel like gave himself another five years
in the league with his performance.
Speaker 3 (13:12):
True last six weeks.
Speaker 1 (13:14):
Jonathan Taylor, by the way, I had one hundred and
seventy seven yards rushing in his last four games of
the year. He averaged one hundred and fifty six yards rushing. Sure, game,
pretty amazing, quietly dominated at the end of the year.
All the talk about Derrick Henry and Saquon and even
Bijon who had one hundred and seventy yards rushing. Today,
(13:34):
we're going to get to that game. Jonathan Taylor. Nice job.
And by the way, even with all the touchdown you know,
Drama still had five touchdowns in those four games.
Speaker 2 (13:48):
I mean Cooks for I want to give Cook's love
for the Bills as well. You think he had sixteen
touchdowns man much. I think he set the Bills record.
Pretty pretty insane year for running backs.
Speaker 1 (13:57):
Really was really incredible year. Likely and Kyrin Williams, who
didn't even play, Yeah amazing. Yeah, all right, Carolina Atlanta,
So we had we had Carolina plus eight and a
half Game of the Day, Bet of the.
Speaker 3 (14:12):
Day, Team of the Day.
Speaker 1 (14:14):
You know you mentioned you were at the sports book.
My younger son plays rec league basketball. It doesn't it's
like it's just him and his buddies fucking around, but
it's like an organized league, and the games are really
fun because he's playing with all those buddies that you know,
we've known in various stages throughout school. And obviously he's
(14:37):
going to go to college next year because he's a
senior in high school. So my wife and I want
to go to these games because it's fun to see
all these kids that you know, goofing around and it's
you know, hanging out and you know, acting like idiots together.
But of course, like it's happening from three thirty to
four thirty. So I bring my phone to the game
and I'm watching the end of the game and I've
got my notebook out, and one of the kids is.
Speaker 3 (14:59):
Like, what are you doing? Are you scouting?
Speaker 1 (15:01):
Like he thought I was taking notes on the other team,
Like I'm working, asshole, And this game was going back
and forth on my little tiny screen and like I'm
going to say it right now I think we're fucked
next year because we talked so much about the Panthers
heading into the season. They became the team we thought
(15:22):
they would be, but it wasn't until midway through the season,
after everyone had stopped listening to us or just thought
we were idiots. So now we're going to start next
year talking about the Panthers again because we love this team.
We love this team. Even Dave Canalis said we got
our guy. He finally admitted it after Bryce Young's game today.
Speaker 3 (15:39):
He was awesome.
Speaker 1 (15:42):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (15:42):
I think for the most part though people had jumped
on board.
Speaker 2 (15:44):
I would say I went from getting I don't know
fifty death threat hate dms and Twitter replies about them too.
Some nice things said to us about us, like knowing
when to jump back in, about how much they love
and enjoy betting this Panther team, and how they were
gonna ride with us one last time today, and yeah
(16:04):
they you know they're a savior in the money line
parlay right. They came through big time and that was
another game though it made me sick to my stomach.
Right where dominating the first half and they basically gave
up fourteen points in a minute fifty seconds or a
minute forty five seconds. It was like, this is why
(16:25):
people hate betting this team. It's like, you do everything right,
bruts Shunk plays so well in your defense, just totally
lays an egg and rolls over in the final two minutes.
They've just done it consistently this season. Like they just
are so bad in the two minute drill. But Bryce
young Man, what a game. You know, the throws he
makes even today, run in the ball, like he just
(16:47):
looks so confident and comfortable in this game. And it's
like that's that was probably the most fun part by
watching it.
Speaker 1 (16:53):
The past five six weeks. He has smiled, he's confident,
he's making just baller throws really amazing throws down the
seams on the sidelines, so accurate, finding guys in the
end zone. How about that play I can't remember if
it was in the first half or the second half
(17:14):
where he threw the ball and before the guy had
caught it, he did what Lamar did yesterday, turned around,
had his back to the play and had his arms
in the air signaling touchdown. Like the guy's just loving
playing right now. So here's my question for you. The
Falcons come close to winning the division. Only had a
few games with Michael Pennix, who I would say was
(17:36):
good ish. I think people can be fooled into believing
he was better than he was because his arm is
so good and he can just whip the ball. But
he also was incredibly inaccurate and didn't make great decisions
all the time. Obviously, only had a few games. Meanwhile,
(17:56):
the Panthers finished five and twelve. Which one of these
teams do you think has more optimism about next year?
Speaker 2 (18:06):
Probably still Atlantic because they have a lot of the
pieces in place where I agree. I'm excited for the Panthers,
Like I think they know what they need to do right,
just spend all their money on the defensive side, like
the offense went healthy, like true, Barb will be back.
You know, I don't know what the deals with the
rookie they drafted this year. He kept getting injured, and
I think he got reinjured this season when he came back.
(18:27):
You know, they have a lot to build around.
Speaker 3 (18:29):
Talking out Xavier Lagette that there was no.
Speaker 2 (18:32):
That's the wide receiver that they drafted a running back?
Speaker 3 (18:35):
Oh oh right, that kid from Texas Jonathan. I forgot
his name, but.
Speaker 2 (18:40):
Yeah, stud like probably probably the best running back Brooks.
There we go, thank you, that's right, that's yeah, but
I told you there were the biggest issue is that
there was no secret that this stretch, you know, these
last eight games, Feeling was the best receiver. Yes, like
there's no doubt about it. And that's that is a
problem when you're best receive is a dude who we
(19:02):
think he'll be back next year.
Speaker 3 (19:03):
He should come back, but it's not. It's not great,
you're not.
Speaker 2 (19:06):
You don't want to be in a position when you
have a guy in his mid thirties as your best receiver.
But yeah, the Atlanta thing, you know, not that we
knew they were gonna lose. He right talked about the
numbers on PENIX. When you really dived into it and
broke it down. He does look good on film when
you break it down and look at the numbers. There
are things he struggles with, like he's not that accurate
(19:26):
of a quarterback as people think. And we kind of
saw in this game, right, he was a little inconsistent,
even though he put up a ton of points. He
had basically I mean second and five, second and four
every time he had the ball, like Robinson dominated that game,
like we thought he.
Speaker 3 (19:42):
Was seventy yards.
Speaker 1 (19:43):
It's like I think the Panthers gave up two hundred
yards rushing the final six weeks of the year.
Speaker 2 (19:52):
So yeah, it's again I'm just so excited for the
Panthers where they really made us look like right, idiot
fools for nine weeks, ten weeks there and then you
kind of saw now what we saw coming to the season,
which is like this team had a ton of potential,
a ton of upside, and just a huge drive for them.
(20:12):
Like we talk about the time like these bad teams,
you win this type of game, just like years ago
with Detroit Lions, and this is Zack scenario. You win
this type of game, it's sets a tone for the
upcoming season and the motivation for the guys because, like
we figured out the time, how human this is, Like
again we talk about the hangover the super Bowl. I
saw a great quote by Deebo Samuel where he loses
(20:32):
the Super Bowl he couldn't leave his house. He said
he was so depressed for a month, and it was like,
holy shit, we got OTAs like that's how quick this
season comes on you. Where it's like he said he
couldn't get it. He still wasn't have the funk even
coming to this year. He said he just could not
get out of that Super Bowl funk. So setting the
tone for the upcoming season, it's the ultimate high vibes
and there's no doubt mean you were going to be
(20:53):
sucked back in on this Panthers team. I'm just so
happy and excited about this team's future.
Speaker 1 (20:57):
Oh my god, we're so screwed, like we are going
to be so many Like it's going to be so terrible.
Speaker 3 (21:03):
You're not wrong about the Super Bowl.
Speaker 1 (21:04):
So I had lunch on Friday with friend of the
pod Seth Wickersham, and I did pitch him on the
Sean McVay and Baker Mayfield idea that I said I
wanted to pitch him on.
Speaker 3 (21:18):
Totally liked it. Then he tried to piss in it.
Speaker 1 (21:20):
Like the old joke is an editor walks up to
an oasis in the desert with a writer and the
writer's like, oh my god, it's perfect, and the editor jokes,
oh wait, I can make it better, and then he
starts to piss in it. And I gave Seth this
brilliant idea. He's like, oh my God, I love this idea,
and then he starts coming up with these other things.
Speaker 3 (21:42):
I'm like, guy, what's the matter with you?
Speaker 1 (21:43):
I'm giving you a gift, and he still tried to
make is something that it wasn't. We were talking about
the Super Bowl between the Chiefs and the Niners and
how people forget that black kick right, and like the
Niners were so close. Kyle Shanahan was out coaching Andy
Reid and beating Patrick Mahomes and like one block kick
(22:06):
leads to one drive leads to a game time field goal.
It's like, I understand it.
Speaker 3 (22:14):
I do.
Speaker 1 (22:16):
The Panther's going to be in that spot one day,
Kansas City Bus ten and a half at Denver. Look,
we loved it. Everybody loved it. And Carson Wentz couldn't
stand in the field. The Chiefs d couldn't get off
the field. First quarter and a half, the Chiefs had
(22:36):
six plays, the Broncos had three touchdowns.
Speaker 3 (22:39):
Bo Nicks was eighteen for eighteen with.
Speaker 1 (22:42):
Nearly two hundred yards and three touchdowns before he had
an in completion, Like it was dead from the start.
Congrass to you, by the way, because I'm convinced me
you gave away the under forty and a half and
it played out. The Chiefs did exactly what you said
they were going to do. Run the ball, burn the clock.
It just so happened. The Broncos tried to score every
(23:02):
time they had the ball, except like the last seven
minutes of the game.
Speaker 2 (23:06):
And that's why I love veter veteran coaches. Though Andy
Reid was just so brutally honest. He's like, if they
would allow me to play with the running clock in
this game, I would play with running clock. And I
didn't honestly think the Chiefs would just know show like
they did. But I do think it was the Bonnicks effect,
where you know, we talked about coming to this game,
Bonix had been struggling down the stretch here and we
(23:33):
were seeing here that in that first half bon Nicks,
like you just said, he was eighteen and nineteen, two
hundred and eighty two yards, three touchdowns, one hundred and
fifty three passer rating, Like, what are we going to do? Chad?
So that was dead from the dead from the start,
like you said, Carson Wentz, I think he went three
and out on three straight drives on the flip side.
Bonnick scored three straight touchdowns and terrible bet. You know,
(23:57):
a day where a bunch of the Temple and Dogs
came through our big dog once again, we just can't
hit the mark man. It's all yeah, all the.
Speaker 1 (24:09):
Fact that the Saints covered, the Patriots covered, the Bears covered,
like we.
Speaker 2 (24:15):
Knew them, the Chiefs, like when Evan told us they
were the most bet.
Speaker 4 (24:18):
Yeah, I know when I saw that this morning, yeah
I know, but I was already like I already made
my bet.
Speaker 2 (24:24):
I kind of had to laying it, like I honestly
couldn't get out of it. So that was definitely one
that hurt where it's like, man, we saw the signs
telling us to get out, and we kept we pushed ahead.
Where Yeah, the biggest regret definitely on the day is
not having the Bears or the Cowboys, where we both
loved those. The Cowboys want scared me off there because
the Trey lance, but yeah, the Bears wanted to just
(24:45):
hurt because it was like that was the dream. We
just knew how do they were, and we talked about it.
I let the trend scare me off, but yeah, to me,
like again, we didn't we didn't have the contest, but
that was my favorite game of the day, That Bears game.
It had everything the highs and why I love betting
of like I won and died that money line a
thousand times on the Bears and they're just they were
(25:06):
the chaos team of the year. I mean, we joked
that that Hell Mary they were Would they have four
wins going to that Hell Mary? Five wins?
Speaker 3 (25:13):
No? They stopped winning after that.
Speaker 2 (25:15):
Right, That's what I mean. So that was their first
win since that Hell Mary. And it's like, it's just
crazy how a little play like that can determine a.
Speaker 3 (25:22):
Whole team season eleven in a row.
Speaker 1 (25:23):
And they I was watching this game again, watching this game,
you know, at the West Harford Rec League basketball game. Uh,
and everybody's saying to me, like, you can't just watch
the watch the kids, you gotta watch the game. I'm like,
I'm working, I am actually working. And uh, I watched
the Bears. They ran they like manage the clock, they
(25:48):
spiked the ball, they got the field goal, they ran
around like they had won the Super Bowl or the
West Hartford Rec League Championship, acting like they had never
won before, because they really haven't. And now the good
news is the Bear's going to interview Thomas Brown, the
current interim head coach, to be their new head coach.
Super excited about that this is all going to go.
(26:10):
Great Bear's one in honor of Virginia Pallas McCaskey, who
turned one hundred and two today. Can you believe that
the NFL is one hundred and five years old. She's
been around for one hundred and two of those years.
Speaker 2 (26:27):
I mean, it's good to be rich.
Speaker 1 (26:31):
I wonder how liquid they are though. They're not like
Josh harre It's you know, you know, like the Harris
Blitzer capital rich. They're like, you know, football rich. I
don't think they can pull a lot out of that yet.
Speaker 2 (26:46):
Like this whole country's built on people buying things they
don't have money for. It's just loaning money out to
the assets they already own. So I'm sure they're doing
all right.
Speaker 3 (26:54):
Yeah, I'm not going to cry for them.
Speaker 1 (26:58):
My favorite incentive is from today. Gino Smith got six
million dollars in incentives. We talked about it the other day,
four million for his forgetting more than one hundred and
eighty five passing yards in the game that got him
over the season total he needed to get for a
two million dollar incentive. Finished the season above seventy percent
completion percentage, got a two million dollars incentive for that.
(27:20):
Got the Seahawks to ten wins, got a two million
incentive for that. Mike Evans got his incentive for thousand yards.
He went crazy on the last play of the game.
That was amazing.
Speaker 2 (27:28):
Yeah. Great.
Speaker 3 (27:29):
What I've loved with this is how unabashedly.
Speaker 1 (27:33):
Aware the players are of their incentives and how excited
their teammates are for him. But then also how the
announcers are, Just like Von Miller just got one point
five million for that sack, Kalayas Campbell just got three
hundred thousand for that seck. Jim Nantz was so excited
when Courland Sutton got his any nine catch. He's like,
he just got five hundred thousand dollars for that catch.
(27:53):
Like it was insane how excited people were.
Speaker 2 (27:56):
Yeah, the von Miller might have been my favorite. He
literally just one handed push Strake May and then he
just knew right away that that counts as a sack.
It was just a very veteran awesome moment for von
Miller getting his money.
Speaker 1 (28:08):
All Right, our final record in the contest. We are
nothing if not accountable. People don't ever say we're not.
We talk about our records every single week. We have
Minnesota three and a half in the contest, thirty nine
and fifty on the year across seventeen completed weeks, finished
with five weeks, finished five.
Speaker 3 (28:27):
Weeks with a winning record. Just terrible.
Speaker 2 (28:30):
It's not as bad as I thought though.
Speaker 3 (28:32):
Really.
Speaker 2 (28:33):
Yeah, honestly I was expecting the worst. Brother. We've been
terrible this year.
Speaker 1 (28:37):
Yeah, I mean, these favorites have just crushed us, absolutely
crushed us.
Speaker 2 (28:42):
It's our first losing season. It hurts, but we'll bounce
back next year. Don't lose faith people.
Speaker 1 (28:47):
Well, the big question is going to be do we overcompensate?
Is this year in our head? Are we betting road favorites?
Are we afraid to bet the dogs? How much do
we think like the thirty yard line start or.
Speaker 2 (29:01):
The five dogs today? Chad, We're not. We have not
changed at all. What are you even talking about?
Speaker 3 (29:11):
All right? Wild card lines?
Speaker 1 (29:13):
The one NFC line that we have so far, green
Bay plus three and a half at Philly your first instinct.
Speaker 2 (29:21):
I mean, they're basically begging you to take Green Bay
and I'm gonna throw a quick, quick penny on the
Eagles right there. It was three. The lines moved basically
off of a couple of key injuries, right, Jordan Love
got Watson, Watson got hurt. I think another receiver of
theirs might have got hurt in this game. You know
already talked about Jerry or Alexander missing this this game,
(29:44):
he's done for the season pretty much, so yep, you
know they're missing their deep threat, rye receiver, the number
one cornerback, and their quarterbacks banked up like this number
is gonna keep going up. If the news comes out
it's anything worse and they might be playing a backup,
which I honestly don't hate for Green Bay if they're
stuck in that position because I think and you both agree,
where Jordan Love has just been shaky. Even that game
(30:06):
before he got hurt, he did not look comfortable, like
he never got into a rhythm against that Bears team
and Eagles. You know, as much as people want to
bash him about some of their weaker competition, they still
are the number one pass defense this season. So it's like,
if Green Bay wants to lean into them just running
the ball, that would be nice for them, but to me, yeah,
(30:28):
I can't already tell you this number is gonna be
too low. Like I honestly thought this would open up four.
I was excited to tell us to bet the Eagles
at three. I'm still happy to take the three and
a half. I can just see this going up, especially
if the injury news does come out. This is gonna
get up to what six or seven?
Speaker 1 (30:41):
Chaid, Yeah, my first instinct on this was we're betting
the Eagles. Like I just I keep thinking about this defense.
It's just it's so good, and in the latter half
of the year it's been so dominant, and I keep
thinking about their defensive tackles and the strength of the Packers.
Whether it's Jordan Love or anyone else, is going to
(31:02):
be Josh Jacobs running up the middle.
Speaker 3 (31:04):
That's how they win the game, right.
Speaker 1 (31:06):
They lean into him early, they try to establish the
line of scrimmage, they try to get some touchdowns early
in the game based on him. As soon as they
go away from him, they start to struggle. We've seen
that every single time, and I don't even know if
they'll be able to take advantage of him as much
as they have in the past, because that defensive line
for the Eagles is so freaking good.
Speaker 2 (31:28):
Yeah, I think you're right where like that's the Eagles
are going to stack the box like the burner. They've
lost their burner now like the guy on the outside
that kind of get threaten you. I know, Watson hasn't
a great season because he's just been injured all the time.
But you know, he tried to fight through the injury
come back today and I think he got carted out
of the stadium Like that's how bad whatever happened to him.
So yeah, unlucky for the Packers. But again they're the
(31:50):
seventh seats, so it's like this is a very respectable
line for a seventh seat. I think at this exact
point last year against Dallas, I think we got them
an eight point doll right, didn't we get So yeah,
the books are given the respect to Green Bay right
now on this opening line. I think it's too much respect.
They're getting good value and my favorite me and you'll
(32:10):
enjoyed this, Chad. Guess who's also one to five in
the division other than the Green Bay Packers Chicago Bears.
So you guys have the same divisional record this season
as the Green Bay Packers.
Speaker 3 (32:20):
It's not even a rivalry. Doesn't matter, doesn't matter.
Speaker 1 (32:25):
Denver Bronco speaking of a seven seed and a two
seed and an eight point line, Broncos are eight and
a half on the road at Buffalo.
Speaker 3 (32:34):
Give me Buffalo.
Speaker 2 (32:36):
Yeah. And this is interesting though certain books have this
eight and a half. A couple of books already have
this at seven and a half, so it might be
early professional money betting this Denver team. But I'm right
David with you. I hate it. I mean, we're so
chalked to start here, but this feels like two different
levels of class. And I'm happy for you. Bo Nick's
incredible game today, it felt like they ran just two
(32:56):
coverages the entire games. The Chiefs they simply did not
try in any sense of the game. And Bonnix the
season has been a road Warrior chat. So you know,
usually we try to do our four best bets for
wild Card weekend. I don't know if this will be
one of my for maybe it'll be Chad's.
Speaker 3 (33:12):
On the Bills.
Speaker 2 (33:12):
But opening line here minus seven and a half, I
got to take that with this Bills team.
Speaker 1 (33:17):
By the way, for folks who are watching on YouTube,
Simon's having some camera issues, so we apologize he's just
blacking out for a second or two. But it's not
affecting audio or rhythm, or our ability to talk.
Speaker 3 (33:30):
To each other or our love for each other.
Speaker 1 (33:32):
By the way, we were fifty and forty last season,
so a reversal it happens.
Speaker 3 (33:39):
You know, my worst year in the.
Speaker 2 (33:40):
History of dogs. What do they want from us? They
know the show is I know, I know.
Speaker 1 (33:45):
Does Matt Mitchell have an opinion on this Bills game?
As our resident Bill's expert? How does he feel about
such a huge line against a Sean Payton bon Nicks team?
Speaker 4 (33:56):
Chad, I spend almost every playoff season consume with anxiety
about the Buffalo Bills as someone that just needs to
see them win one Super Bowl so I can put
down that heavy leg for the rest of my life. However,
I never worry about wild Card weekend. My life will
be ruined when the Bills inevitably lose at some point
(34:17):
this playoffs. It won't come in the wildcard round. I
just don't see that coming. And maybe I'm inviting disaster.
I'm like, I don't need to invite disaster. Disaster will
find its way to me, I'm just not gonna fucking
worry about Bonnix on the road, So I wish them
the best of luck.
Speaker 1 (34:33):
Let's go back Pittsburgh Steelers. They cannot move the ball
on offense. They have been a train wreck for four
games in a row. Simon, you had been predicting sort
of Russell Wilson's moon balls being shot down to earth.
They have been, and this past weekend against the Bengals,
(34:56):
George Pickens couldn't catch them.
Speaker 3 (34:58):
Now they're gonna be on the road.
Speaker 1 (35:00):
Eight and a half point underdogs against the Baltimore Ravens.
We know all the stats, and again, like we got
shows Tuesday, we got shows Thursday, we got a lot
to unpack. I'm not going to go into detail on
the records, but we know that other than this past
the last time they just played, these games are generally
(35:25):
underdogs cover very very short, very very small spreads. So
this is an anomaly to have this big of a number,
and it's entirely based on what we saw on Saturday.
Speaker 3 (35:42):
I think.
Speaker 2 (35:44):
Exactly no one's We're the only us in professionals and
trend betters are betting the Pittsburgh team. Everyone is going
to throw in the bills with this Ravens team into
their moneyline, parlays into their teasers. It doesn't get much easier.
And this is base every year chat and hey, we
might get caught here. You know we did last year
in this exact scenario of trying to fade Lamar in
(36:07):
round one. But we know Lamar.
Speaker 3 (36:09):
It's just different in the playoffs. He gets tighter and now.
Speaker 2 (36:11):
He's facing this team that historically has been his kryptonite.
I mean, people act like he answered the demons in
that last matchup, but it's like they're one on one
on the season against this team. They split and it's
like this is the defense that knows how to figure out. Now,
you know, we don't know the status of JJ Watt
at this point.
Speaker 3 (36:27):
That's a big deal, JDJ.
Speaker 2 (36:30):
That's a big deal for me, And you're right, like,
that's that guy is a huge deal against Lamar and
stopping what he's so specialized, which is creating plays on
the fly with his legs.
Speaker 3 (36:39):
So no rush to bet it.
Speaker 2 (36:42):
I mean, I'm gonna grab as soon as we get
off this call, I'm gonna drive him to Philly. Grab
a couple eight and a halfs where I can, but
would be shocked if this keeps going up, just because
I know professional money's gonna come in on Pittsburgh.
Speaker 3 (36:53):
It's just it's the professional side.
Speaker 2 (36:55):
This was gonna be the easiest bet. As soon as
I saw how I was laying out that Pittsburgh was
gonna lose to Cinci, I was like, oh my god,
We're gonna get Pittsburgh at at the Ravens in round one,
and it's gonna be us against everyone else. Like no
one's going to be back on this Pittsburgh team, especially
the way they've looked. And I mean we all agree
like they got a lucky covering that last game. I mean,
(37:16):
it was just incredible, incredible how they came back and
covered that. But that's life when you were kicking field goals,
which is what since he did, and I think the
same can be said here, Chad. It feels the type
of game where Lamar might be able to move the
ball up and down the field, but I think he's
going to struggle against this Pittsburgh team in the red zone.
And yeah, this is a big one too. We'll wait
and see if it's all about the injuries, right, we've
seen the difference since this Pittsburgh team has had a
(37:38):
couple of kindreies to their defense as well, right, like
the secondary, big deal, the defensive line, it's a big deal.
So again, not rushing to make a ton of bets
on this one, but I'd be shocked if this is
one of our four.
Speaker 1 (37:51):
Well, look, it's a huge deal. Like that secondary. They
were getting beat up by the Bengals until T. Higgins
went out.
Speaker 2 (37:58):
Everybody, I mean, everything they've played in the stretchers been
attacking that second there Jing.
Speaker 1 (38:02):
So I think we need a lot of You're gonna
go bet the eight and a half, but you still
think the number is gonna go to nine, nine and
a half.
Speaker 2 (38:11):
I think there's a possibility just because we talked about
the injuries, Like if there's no TJ. Watt, I mean
the books might have to take it to ten to
get some money. Resistance against this Ravens team. This is
the darling of the league right now. I mean they've
they've been incredible down the stretch here, and you know
that back door crazy cover they had against Cleveland. It
(38:33):
sets a tone, right they were sloppy and bad in
that game, and they blew them out. I mean, they
dominated them in that second half. So it's just the
public opinion couldn't be any lower on the s Pittsburgh team.
I know Evan's gonna have this amazing stature. You're basically
this rare, rare era of a team that's on a
four game losing streak cutting into the playoffs, or maybe
it's five game loser streak. I think it's four Basically
(38:54):
teams of this Zach scenario. They tend to cover in
the playoffs like no one's no one's gonna buy on them,
so the books are gonna give you a big number.
They tend to step up when of the matter, most
especially in the playoffs.
Speaker 1 (39:05):
I think one of the one of the biggest problems
we had this year is because the favorites kept winning.
Speaker 3 (39:10):
We definitely, at least I did.
Speaker 1 (39:12):
I can't speak for you entirely, but I think we
definitely let a little bit of recency bias seep into
some of our handicapping more than we have in the past.
Speaker 3 (39:24):
And when I say we, I mean me. I'm not
going to speak for you. Yeah, I had no problem
ben favorites.
Speaker 2 (39:30):
I definitely just in the sense of I was out
putting as much big money as I normally would on dogs,
just because what we talked about, I do think I
need more time to dive into the whole kickoff and
teams started the thirty and house. So many teams just
went forward on fourth down this season at midfield Like
It's just it was a very unique season that that's
sometimes I have to adjust and update my model.
Speaker 1 (39:50):
For last game that we have a number four Chargers
three point favorites on the road at the Houston Texans,
I thinking about what this line was going to be
when I was watching the end of the Raiders Chargers game. Obviously,
the last few weeks, we've loved the.
Speaker 3 (40:10):
Chargers and.
Speaker 1 (40:12):
They have not been a team we've been afraid to
bet as favorites on the road. I was a little
surprised this number opened as big as it did. I
just thought it would be closer to pick, to be honest.
So all of a sudden this felt I was like
looking forward to betting the Chargers, and I'm less looking
forward to it now.
Speaker 2 (40:31):
I mean, it's three, and there is a line up
for Tampa Washington, so we can break that one down.
But yeah, this line being minus three, to me, that's
a Chargers line like you said, when it was three
and a half, I was like, fuck, am I really
gonna to bet Houston here? But a minus three? How
do we not take that Charger's number like they're they're
(40:51):
the more complete team as we head into this exact spot.
Like Houston, they did this smart thing today they played
their starters, which is one of the reasons where it's
like not that I hated Tennessee today and moving off
of it because they were playing their starters for in Houston,
but it was more of like, Okay, that's that's a
smart decision. I know a lot of people might hate
on it, but it's like they have not found a
rhythm in weeks Houston's offense, so that was nice for
(41:14):
them to get the opening drive there. But the Chargers
even today, like how they dominated with exactly how we
talked we said they would, right, They just way for
you to make a mistake, and this Houston team has
made a munch of mistakes. And you know, defense is
no they can just shade to Nico Collins, just put
a guy over top of the guy underneath and you know,
force CJ to beat you in other areas and he
(41:35):
just hasn't done it down the stretcher, especially against good teams.
So I'm with you that you know, obviously, in the
perfect world this would have been a pick. Mean, you
would be hammering this Chargers line. But I still think
there's value on the minus three. This number feels right.
I don't want to bet Houston, so I'm open we
can get this in our picks at the end of
the week, but I'd be shocked if stage three. I
(41:55):
could easily see this going up to three and a
half unless there is some respective professor some money come
on the other side. I just I can't see it.
This Houston team, it felt like they overachieved last year,
got lucky to being a weak division this year, and
they're basically running to a team that it's pretty legit
in the Chargers team.
Speaker 3 (42:10):
So what I don't see a Tampa Washington line? What
do you have? Sure right now? They opened at three.
Speaker 2 (42:17):
So when we came on here, I staid it to
I was like, oh my god, you can get Tampa
mice two and a half right now against Washington. That
was a gift. Mine three is still a gift to me,
Like you're getting a rookie on the road here at
a field goal against a veteran Bucks team that you know,
that was their game from hell today. Everything was going wrong,
(42:38):
they found a way like that was as an Eagles fan,
I was praying for them to blow that game. I
would much rather face the Penix Atlanta team than this
veteran Bucks team. So you know, another game that was
probably one of my favorite wins of the day, Like
that was it was truly theater in the sportsbook. You
had grown men crying about Atlanta losing and then other
(42:59):
grown men crying because they won on their Bucks and
it was just really fun for survivor pools. So yeah,
this is a Bucks team that I like this number.
I want to fade Washington and I'm sure the public
will come in on Washington because of what the Bucks
did today and people kind of dismissing them. And I
totally get Jane Daniels the upside, and we talked about
(43:20):
the variants. With him a fourth down, they could easily
win this game. Like this is a good, a strong
number at plus three if you want to take it,
and at two and a half, I'm way more confident
on the bucket three. I'm not dying to take it,
but that's That's where I'm at right now. I like
them as just like the Chargers. I think they're the
better team. They deserve their respect. They're unlike the Chargers.
They're at home here. That feels like a really good
number at home against the rookie. He was on the
(43:42):
road in his first playoff start.
Speaker 3 (43:45):
Baker is ballin.
Speaker 1 (43:46):
He was not going to lose that game today, And
I actually agree with you. To me, this was one
of their most impressive wins of the past two seasons
because they were just getting destroyed. They could have been
glassy eyed and lost confidence on the sideline and been
asking themselves, what's happening, why aren't we winning, like starting
(44:08):
to blame themselves, losing their composure that if they had
one more series, they probably would have covered that game.
Like they just wanted going away. In the second half,
they stopped making stupid mistakes. Bucky Irving, you know, was
running wild, which I think will be in an advantage
against the Commander's defense. We saw what Rico Daubdel did today,
(44:30):
Like they did not have a problem moving the ball
with Trey Lance against the Commander's defense that was trying
for much of the game. So don't hate it, but
we're going to dig in more, a lot more, Yeah,
a lot more to say. We got to do some research,
some fine tuning. Got to see how these numbers move,
see who's injured, see how the seedings finally play out.
(44:53):
After the Vikings and Packers game tonight, reminder, we have
the Minnesota Kings plus three and a half in the
contest our last pick of the year. We're going to
sweat it out and what might be the best game
of the year. The Favorites Podcast is presented by Bet
three sixty five and now new Bet three sixty five.
Customers get one one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus
(45:15):
bets when you bet five dollars. Sign up using promo
code Favorites to Posita ten dollars. Places a bet for
five dollars to get one hundred and fifty dollars in
bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals,
player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary.
At Bet three six five. Must be twenty one or
older in presentdent Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina,
(45:37):
New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky.
Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight
hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditioned restrictions apply. Catch
our next episode live on Tuesday one thirty pm Eastern
on Action Networks YouTube channel.
Speaker 3 (45:56):
Download us from.
Speaker 1 (45:56):
Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods, Rate review, subscribe,
we as five stars say whatever you want. Feedback is
a gift until Tuesday.
Speaker 3 (46:04):
Love You. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If
you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
help is available twenty four to seven at one eight
(46:25):
hundred gambler
Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast, presented by BET
three sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network,
live from our Tommy John Home studios. I am Chad
Mellman of the Action Network. It is our Sunday night episode.
We're going to review for one last time this football season.
The five picks we put into the contest, they are
(00:30):
reflective of our entire season so far. We're going to
dissect a little bit about why we left some games out,
but that is not the main event. The main event
is we're going to preview the early lines we already
like for wildcard playoffs. Some of them are moving already
across key numbers. I'm joined at as always by my
co host, my companion Mike and Padre, and my bff
(00:51):
professional Better Simon Hunter et O Simon.
Speaker 2 (00:54):
Hello, Chad, what a day, brother.
Speaker 3 (00:56):
Took eighteen weeks man.
Speaker 1 (00:58):
Prior to today, we had seventeen weeks of dogs shitting
the bed of Favorites, playing perfectly, of living through the
exact opposite of everything we had relied upon as betters
for years, years, and then today the dogs they finally
(01:22):
started barking. The bear is covered, the cowboys covered the
Jacks covered, the Saints covers, the Patriots covered, the Panthers covered,
even the Texans as dogs against the Tennessee Titans covered.
Speaker 3 (01:37):
Of course, the.
Speaker 1 (01:38):
Giants did not cover. Somehow, the Giants ended up in
our final five, even.
Speaker 3 (01:43):
Though like.
Speaker 1 (01:46):
Every other game looked more attractive because the Giants were
already be playing all their backups and their third stringers,
so it didn't matter who they were playing. I don't
know how we ended up with that. We did have
the Panthers, which is great because we've been banking on
them for weeks.
Speaker 3 (02:00):
We had the Jags. We had the Chiefs.
Speaker 1 (02:03):
That was a bit of a bomber, but everyone seemed
to like them, so they all took a hip. We're
two and two on the day with the Vikings plus
three and a half tonight, let's break it down more importantly.
Speaker 3 (02:13):
We're going to talk.
Speaker 1 (02:13):
About what we are seeing for any of the early
playoff lines. We got four lines posted for the four
games that we know are set. Obviously, we're waiting on
two NFC matchups tonight based on the Vikings and the
Lions results.
Speaker 3 (02:27):
Catch every episode of the Favorites live on YouTube.
Speaker 1 (02:30):
For those on YouTube, don't forget to kIPS, like and
subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page as a reminder
of the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three sixty
five and now new Bet three sixty five. Customers get
one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets when you
bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites, deposit
ten dollars. Plays a bet for five dollars to get
(02:52):
one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus
bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,
and more.
Speaker 3 (02:58):
Whatever the moment. It's never ordinary area.
Speaker 1 (03:00):
Bet three sixty five must be twenty one or older
and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina,
New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia where eighteen or older in Kentucky.
Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight
hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. Let's
start with some housekeeping. People want to know performance. How
(03:24):
we did during the year. It was not pretty all
the time. Foxhol started out h to six, ended eight
eight and two Simon says nine, eight and one, executive
decision five and thirteen.
Speaker 3 (03:43):
Big Balls Better The.
Speaker 1 (03:45):
Week presented by Tommy Johns started four and ZHO ended
eight and ten. That's what happens when you're constantly betting
home underdogs. We'll give out the final record from the
contest at the end of the show. It's not going
to be good New York Giants plus two and a
half at Philly.
Speaker 3 (04:05):
How do we end up with the Giants?
Speaker 1 (04:07):
Of all the dogs that like had things locked up
or needed to win to stay like, the Giants were
the only ones who were who were never in it.
Speaker 3 (04:21):
I mean they were down four.
Speaker 2 (04:23):
They had a chance at the end there, and they
obviously punted the ball back to the Eagles. I don't
think they got the ball back, but yeah, better bad
number was a bad bet. We basically bet on a
team that you know, should have realized they came off
their Super Bowl and yeah, our quarterback Drew lock in
that first half, did nothing, basically put up a gooseg
(04:44):
in Tanry McKee didn't even play that great, but he
played well enough to get them to seventeen points, which
you know, I guess they won. They got twenty at
the end there. But yeah, Eagles, like you just said,
Eagles playing their backups. The Giants been playing their backups
for weeks. Look like the Giants or the team that
was rusty. So yeah, that was a bad one and
(05:05):
obviously it's even more brutal. And that's the only dog
that doesn't cover the early slate. So it's thanks. We
had a lot of dogs we liked.
Speaker 3 (05:12):
This week ended up on a bad one at a
bad number.
Speaker 1 (05:15):
Did not come through bad, very bad, all bad all
the way around, because we liked We talked about the Bears,
we talked about the freaking Saints, like the number of
parlays we had on the money line and on these
underdogs to cover. The Giants were barely in any any
of these things for me.
Speaker 3 (05:37):
But whatever, at least it's over.
Speaker 1 (05:40):
Malik Neighbors did set a Giants record for most receptions
in a season, and the announcers were making such a
big deal about this because really it's their job, and
what else are you going to do? Can you think
of a Giants receiver in history that's actually worth fawning
(06:00):
over other than Odell who was not historically great or
even great for longevity?
Speaker 3 (06:08):
Can you think of one Plexico man.
Speaker 1 (06:10):
Come on, dude, come on, I'm thinking historically great like
the way and this by the way, tumor no. The
answer to my next question will prove my point because
they were making such a big deal Malik Neighbors franchise
record for most receptions in a season.
Speaker 3 (06:29):
That's a big deal.
Speaker 1 (06:30):
Oh my god, it's so amazing the Giants, such a
historic franchise. I could not think of anybody who is
worthy as a great receiver, a Hall of Fame caliber
receiver for the New York Football Giants. And then, because
I'm like, who cares, like, it's the freaking Giants right
then they gave the answer to who set the record.
(06:51):
Do you know who it was.
Speaker 2 (06:54):
Who had the Giants record or the NFL.
Speaker 3 (06:56):
Giants record for most receptions in the season.
Speaker 2 (07:00):
Hmm, that's shocking. It's not Odell.
Speaker 1 (07:05):
Steve Steve Smith, and not the Steve Smith you're thinking of,
the one who's finalist for.
Speaker 2 (07:11):
The Eagle Steve Smith.
Speaker 3 (07:13):
Steve Smith, I.
Speaker 1 (07:14):
Think he went to like USC or something, was it
early two thousands, Like, that's the guy who set the record.
So that says all you need to know about how
much this team needs a reset.
Speaker 2 (07:26):
I don't know, it's I'd be excited, like they they
got their receiver. Now they just need an offensive line
and a quarterback. Yeah, good luck Giants.
Speaker 1 (07:34):
Ask the Bears how that's going. You just need an
offensive line. You just need a quarterback. You got your receivers.
You're fine on the edges. You just need those two things.
Easier said than done. Jacksonville at Indy. We had Jacksonville
plus three and a half. You know how the people
(07:56):
who run the media, all the NFL executives who decide
when they're really going to what games on red zone,
how little they think of Jacksonville and Indy, even though
it was a riveting game. Because in the first half,
despite multiple lead changes and a field goal less than
(08:16):
forty seconds in a half, I think out of red
zone I saw maybe three.
Speaker 3 (08:20):
Plays from this game.
Speaker 1 (08:22):
They would just go to it like, you know, after
the fact, they weren't going to it in real time.
They'd show you the highlight. But this was a great game,
played exactly the way we thought it would.
Speaker 3 (08:34):
Yeah, it was a definitely a corner of TV.
Speaker 2 (08:36):
At the sports book, there was me and a couple
other guys all huddled around it I mean, the funny
thing was that next to that TV in the corner
was that Buck Saints game. I think after maybe the
first quarter they moved to the main TV. It was like, okay,
this because people are going wild about you know, Survivor
Contest every like that. I mean, it really was a
really fun day at the book sweating out Survivor Contest
(09:00):
people like us who are betting dogs, like there's a
lot of dog love in the building today, and yeah,
it was. It was pretty surreal, uh, coming down the
wire for a lot of those games, So yeah, I
get what you're saying, though definitely was not you know,
they went to overtime and I think maybe five of
us knew that because even red Zone didn't cut into it.
(09:20):
And in overtime, man, I thank god I didn't text you.
I was going to text you, but basically got overtime
and they the Colts, got the ball first, and I
just in my mind was like, oh my god, here
hear me and Chad go again. And you know, another
game we did today went overtime, so at the same time,
I was just like, oh my god, deja vu. Two
dogs going over time. But yeah, like we're hoping chat
(09:43):
looks like it's the year of the Dog, because you
know they've got a big fourth down stop that Jags team,
and you know, got the field going overtime. But Mac Jones,
man like, it was crazy how he kept getting us
back from the dead. We kept getting touchdowns from him,
He kept doing it, got that field goal at the
end and go to overtime. And yeah on fourth and
twenty two through a nice middle of the field fifteen
(10:05):
yard pass just to end the game. Put us out
our misery. No pick six, no strip sack, no passing behind.
So felt good, you know, better good number. You know,
I had a ton of money on four and a half,
a bunch of money on four obviously, some money on
the three and a half, and I'm just like, oh
my god, I'm going to lose all these numbers. And
it was nice, nice thing. It kind of felt like
(10:25):
the game win as it should. The Colts just don't
cover against the Jaguards. It's bizarre, but we love those
type of trends and I'm happy it came through for
us and the fans.
Speaker 3 (10:35):
Here's a theory.
Speaker 1 (10:36):
So ever since Mac Jones started playing, this team had
played with more fire, more passion, they were scrappier, more energized,
seemed to be having so much more fun than when
Trevor Lawrence was playing. Right, And you think back to
Doug Peterson when he was the Eagles coach. When did
he have his greatest success.
Speaker 3 (10:59):
The six seven, eight week run.
Speaker 1 (11:03):
After the superstar MVP caliber quarterback Carson Wentz went out
and he had Nick Foles backup quarterback, Everyone's rallying around
the guy. Is it possible that Doug Peterson is a
better scrappy, not as talented quarterback coach than he is
(11:27):
a uber talented quarterback head coach.
Speaker 2 (11:34):
No, what helped him is he got to play Tennessee
to it the last five weeks, so he got two
wins there. And obviously, I mean you joked about that
Colts team is just atrocious, Like Brian Thompson Jr. Was
just such It's crazy different levels he guys are at.
He's at such a different level than anyone that could
even defend him on the Colts team. So, yeah, Mac Jones,
(11:54):
he knew the assignment. Just throw it down the Brian
Thompson junior, he'll get it. And yeah, he saved our
asked today because I'm not gonna lie. They drove to
field that opening possession scored a touchdown. The cold time,
I was like, well, we basically he met the answer
and he did. And you know, we didn't even talk
about yet that Panthers game. But you know, there's a
lot of things happened in a two minute warning in
(12:15):
both these games. And in this game, you know, I
think they're down seven and a half time because you
know they kicked the ball back.
Speaker 3 (12:20):
Yeah, was able to drive.
Speaker 2 (12:22):
The field and get a field goal. So tough, tough
when you're always behind it. But it's like we always say,
like we trusted the number, trusted the spot, and yeah,
it's nice when it comes through with the the numbering
literally land exactly what we thought it should. You said
the number should be three. It was three and a half.
We took the value and it came through.
Speaker 1 (12:38):
The announcers on the Texans Titans games said something interesting.
They talked about Davis Mills and him trying to perform
so well for the Texans, and Davis Mills said to them,
He's like, look, these games might not mean anything, but
just someone like me, it's extra time in the league
(12:59):
as a backup court, her.
Speaker 3 (13:00):
Back if I play well, and Carson Wentz that same thing.
What's that said?
Speaker 2 (13:04):
Carson Wentz said the same thing.
Speaker 3 (13:05):
Well, he might have cut his time in half.
Speaker 1 (13:08):
Mac Jones, I feel like gave himself another five years
in the league with his performance.
Speaker 3 (13:12):
True last six weeks.
Speaker 1 (13:14):
Jonathan Taylor, by the way, I had one hundred and
seventy seven yards rushing in his last four games of
the year. He averaged one hundred and fifty six yards rushing. Sure, game,
pretty amazing, quietly dominated at the end of the year.
All the talk about Derrick Henry and Saquon and even
Bijon who had one hundred and seventy yards rushing. Today,
(13:34):
we're going to get to that game. Jonathan Taylor. Nice job.
And by the way, even with all the touchdown you know,
Drama still had five touchdowns in those four games.
Speaker 2 (13:48):
I mean Cooks for I want to give Cook's love
for the Bills as well. You think he had sixteen
touchdowns man much. I think he set the Bills record.
Pretty pretty insane year for running backs.
Speaker 1 (13:57):
Really was really incredible year. Likely and Kyrin Williams, who
didn't even play, Yeah amazing. Yeah, all right, Carolina Atlanta,
So we had we had Carolina plus eight and a
half Game of the Day, Bet of the.
Speaker 3 (14:12):
Day, Team of the Day.
Speaker 1 (14:14):
You know you mentioned you were at the sports book.
My younger son plays rec league basketball. It doesn't it's
like it's just him and his buddies fucking around, but
it's like an organized league, and the games are really
fun because he's playing with all those buddies that you know,
we've known in various stages throughout school. And obviously he's
(14:37):
going to go to college next year because he's a
senior in high school. So my wife and I want
to go to these games because it's fun to see
all these kids that you know, goofing around and it's
you know, hanging out and you know, acting like idiots together.
But of course, like it's happening from three thirty to
four thirty. So I bring my phone to the game
and I'm watching the end of the game and I've
got my notebook out, and one of the kids is.
Speaker 3 (14:59):
Like, what are you doing? Are you scouting?
Speaker 1 (15:01):
Like he thought I was taking notes on the other team,
Like I'm working, asshole, And this game was going back
and forth on my little tiny screen and like I'm
going to say it right now I think we're fucked
next year because we talked so much about the Panthers
heading into the season. They became the team we thought
(15:22):
they would be, but it wasn't until midway through the season,
after everyone had stopped listening to us or just thought
we were idiots. So now we're going to start next
year talking about the Panthers again because we love this team.
We love this team. Even Dave Canalis said we got
our guy. He finally admitted it after Bryce Young's game today.
Speaker 3 (15:39):
He was awesome.
Speaker 1 (15:42):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (15:42):
I think for the most part though people had jumped
on board.
Speaker 2 (15:44):
I would say I went from getting I don't know
fifty death threat hate dms and Twitter replies about them too.
Some nice things said to us about us, like knowing
when to jump back in, about how much they love
and enjoy betting this Panther team, and how they were
gonna ride with us one last time today, and yeah
(16:04):
they you know they're a savior in the money line
parlay right. They came through big time and that was
another game though it made me sick to my stomach.
Right where dominating the first half and they basically gave
up fourteen points in a minute fifty seconds or a
minute forty five seconds. It was like, this is why
(16:25):
people hate betting this team. It's like, you do everything right,
bruts Shunk plays so well in your defense, just totally
lays an egg and rolls over in the final two minutes.
They've just done it consistently this season. Like they just
are so bad in the two minute drill. But Bryce
young Man, what a game. You know, the throws he
makes even today, run in the ball, like he just
(16:47):
looks so confident and comfortable in this game. And it's
like that's that was probably the most fun part by
watching it.
Speaker 1 (16:53):
The past five six weeks. He has smiled, he's confident,
he's making just baller throws really amazing throws down the
seams on the sidelines, so accurate, finding guys in the
end zone. How about that play I can't remember if
it was in the first half or the second half
(17:14):
where he threw the ball and before the guy had
caught it, he did what Lamar did yesterday, turned around,
had his back to the play and had his arms
in the air signaling touchdown. Like the guy's just loving
playing right now. So here's my question for you. The
Falcons come close to winning the division. Only had a
few games with Michael Pennix, who I would say was
(17:36):
good ish. I think people can be fooled into believing
he was better than he was because his arm is
so good and he can just whip the ball. But
he also was incredibly inaccurate and didn't make great decisions
all the time. Obviously, only had a few games. Meanwhile,
(17:56):
the Panthers finished five and twelve. Which one of these
teams do you think has more optimism about next year?
Speaker 2 (18:06):
Probably still Atlantic because they have a lot of the
pieces in place where I agree. I'm excited for the Panthers,
Like I think they know what they need to do right,
just spend all their money on the defensive side, like
the offense went healthy, like true, Barb will be back.
You know, I don't know what the deals with the
rookie they drafted this year. He kept getting injured, and
I think he got reinjured this season when he came back.
(18:27):
You know, they have a lot to build around.
Speaker 3 (18:29):
Talking out Xavier Lagette that there was no.
Speaker 2 (18:32):
That's the wide receiver that they drafted a running back?
Speaker 3 (18:35):
Oh oh right, that kid from Texas Jonathan. I forgot
his name, but.
Speaker 2 (18:40):
Yeah, stud like probably probably the best running back Brooks.
There we go, thank you, that's right, that's yeah, but
I told you there were the biggest issue is that
there was no secret that this stretch, you know, these
last eight games, Feeling was the best receiver. Yes, like
there's no doubt about it. And that's that is a
problem when you're best receive is a dude who we
(19:02):
think he'll be back next year.
Speaker 3 (19:03):
He should come back, but it's not. It's not great,
you're not.
Speaker 2 (19:06):
You don't want to be in a position when you
have a guy in his mid thirties as your best receiver.
But yeah, the Atlanta thing, you know, not that we
knew they were gonna lose. He right talked about the
numbers on PENIX. When you really dived into it and
broke it down. He does look good on film when
you break it down and look at the numbers. There
are things he struggles with, like he's not that accurate
(19:26):
of a quarterback as people think. And we kind of
saw in this game, right, he was a little inconsistent,
even though he put up a ton of points. He
had basically I mean second and five, second and four
every time he had the ball, like Robinson dominated that game,
like we thought he.
Speaker 3 (19:42):
Was seventy yards.
Speaker 1 (19:43):
It's like I think the Panthers gave up two hundred
yards rushing the final six weeks of the year.
Speaker 2 (19:52):
So yeah, it's again I'm just so excited for the
Panthers where they really made us look like right, idiot
fools for nine weeks, ten weeks there and then you
kind of saw now what we saw coming to the season,
which is like this team had a ton of potential,
a ton of upside, and just a huge drive for them.
(20:12):
Like we talk about the time like these bad teams,
you win this type of game, just like years ago
with Detroit Lions, and this is Zack scenario. You win
this type of game, it's sets a tone for the
upcoming season and the motivation for the guys because, like
we figured out the time, how human this is, Like
again we talk about the hangover the super Bowl. I
saw a great quote by Deebo Samuel where he loses
(20:32):
the Super Bowl he couldn't leave his house. He said
he was so depressed for a month, and it was like,
holy shit, we got OTAs like that's how quick this
season comes on you. Where it's like he said he
couldn't get it. He still wasn't have the funk even
coming to this year. He said he just could not
get out of that Super Bowl funk. So setting the
tone for the upcoming season, it's the ultimate high vibes
and there's no doubt mean you were going to be
(20:53):
sucked back in on this Panthers team. I'm just so
happy and excited about this team's future.
Speaker 1 (20:57):
Oh my god, we're so screwed, like we are going
to be so many Like it's going to be so terrible.
Speaker 3 (21:03):
You're not wrong about the Super Bowl.
Speaker 1 (21:04):
So I had lunch on Friday with friend of the
pod Seth Wickersham, and I did pitch him on the
Sean McVay and Baker Mayfield idea that I said I
wanted to pitch him on.
Speaker 3 (21:18):
Totally liked it. Then he tried to piss in it.
Speaker 1 (21:20):
Like the old joke is an editor walks up to
an oasis in the desert with a writer and the
writer's like, oh my god, it's perfect, and the editor jokes,
oh wait, I can make it better, and then he
starts to piss in it. And I gave Seth this
brilliant idea. He's like, oh my God, I love this idea,
and then he starts coming up with these other things.
Speaker 3 (21:42):
I'm like, guy, what's the matter with you?
Speaker 1 (21:43):
I'm giving you a gift, and he still tried to
make is something that it wasn't. We were talking about
the Super Bowl between the Chiefs and the Niners and
how people forget that black kick right, and like the
Niners were so close. Kyle Shanahan was out coaching Andy
Reid and beating Patrick Mahomes and like one block kick
(22:06):
leads to one drive leads to a game time field goal.
It's like, I understand it.
Speaker 3 (22:14):
I do.
Speaker 1 (22:16):
The Panther's going to be in that spot one day,
Kansas City Bus ten and a half at Denver. Look,
we loved it. Everybody loved it. And Carson Wentz couldn't
stand in the field. The Chiefs d couldn't get off
the field. First quarter and a half, the Chiefs had
(22:36):
six plays, the Broncos had three touchdowns.
Speaker 3 (22:39):
Bo Nicks was eighteen for eighteen with.
Speaker 1 (22:42):
Nearly two hundred yards and three touchdowns before he had
an in completion, Like it was dead from the start.
Congrass to you, by the way, because I'm convinced me
you gave away the under forty and a half and
it played out. The Chiefs did exactly what you said
they were going to do. Run the ball, burn the clock.
It just so happened. The Broncos tried to score every
(23:02):
time they had the ball, except like the last seven
minutes of the game.
Speaker 2 (23:06):
And that's why I love veter veteran coaches. Though Andy
Reid was just so brutally honest. He's like, if they
would allow me to play with the running clock in
this game, I would play with running clock. And I
didn't honestly think the Chiefs would just know show like
they did. But I do think it was the Bonnicks effect,
where you know, we talked about coming to this game,
Bonix had been struggling down the stretch here and we
(23:33):
were seeing here that in that first half bon Nicks,
like you just said, he was eighteen and nineteen, two
hundred and eighty two yards, three touchdowns, one hundred and
fifty three passer rating, Like, what are we going to do? Chad?
So that was dead from the dead from the start,
like you said, Carson Wentz, I think he went three
and out on three straight drives on the flip side.
Bonnick scored three straight touchdowns and terrible bet. You know,
(23:57):
a day where a bunch of the Temple and Dogs
came through our big dog once again, we just can't
hit the mark man. It's all yeah, all the.
Speaker 1 (24:09):
Fact that the Saints covered, the Patriots covered, the Bears covered,
like we.
Speaker 2 (24:15):
Knew them, the Chiefs, like when Evan told us they
were the most bet.
Speaker 4 (24:18):
Yeah, I know when I saw that this morning, yeah
I know, but I was already like I already made
my bet.
Speaker 2 (24:24):
I kind of had to laying it, like I honestly
couldn't get out of it. So that was definitely one
that hurt where it's like, man, we saw the signs
telling us to get out, and we kept we pushed ahead.
Where Yeah, the biggest regret definitely on the day is
not having the Bears or the Cowboys, where we both
loved those. The Cowboys want scared me off there because
the Trey lance, but yeah, the Bears wanted to just
(24:45):
hurt because it was like that was the dream. We
just knew how do they were, and we talked about it.
I let the trend scare me off, but yeah, to me,
like again, we didn't we didn't have the contest, but
that was my favorite game of the day, That Bears game.
It had everything the highs and why I love betting
of like I won and died that money line a
thousand times on the Bears and they're just they were
(25:06):
the chaos team of the year. I mean, we joked
that that Hell Mary they were Would they have four
wins going to that Hell Mary? Five wins?
Speaker 3 (25:13):
No? They stopped winning after that.
Speaker 2 (25:15):
Right, That's what I mean. So that was their first
win since that Hell Mary. And it's like, it's just
crazy how a little play like that can determine a.
Speaker 3 (25:22):
Whole team season eleven in a row.
Speaker 1 (25:23):
And they I was watching this game again, watching this game,
you know, at the West Harford Rec League basketball game. Uh,
and everybody's saying to me, like, you can't just watch
the watch the kids, you gotta watch the game. I'm like,
I'm working, I am actually working. And uh, I watched
the Bears. They ran they like manage the clock, they
(25:48):
spiked the ball, they got the field goal, they ran
around like they had won the Super Bowl or the
West Hartford Rec League Championship, acting like they had never
won before, because they really haven't. And now the good
news is the Bear's going to interview Thomas Brown, the
current interim head coach, to be their new head coach.
Super excited about that this is all going to go.
(26:10):
Great Bear's one in honor of Virginia Pallas McCaskey, who
turned one hundred and two today. Can you believe that
the NFL is one hundred and five years old. She's
been around for one hundred and two of those years.
Speaker 2 (26:27):
I mean, it's good to be rich.
Speaker 1 (26:31):
I wonder how liquid they are though. They're not like
Josh harre It's you know, you know, like the Harris
Blitzer capital rich. They're like, you know, football rich. I
don't think they can pull a lot out of that yet.
Speaker 2 (26:46):
Like this whole country's built on people buying things they
don't have money for. It's just loaning money out to
the assets they already own. So I'm sure they're doing
all right.
Speaker 3 (26:54):
Yeah, I'm not going to cry for them.
Speaker 1 (26:58):
My favorite incentive is from today. Gino Smith got six
million dollars in incentives. We talked about it the other day,
four million for his forgetting more than one hundred and
eighty five passing yards in the game that got him
over the season total he needed to get for a
two million dollar incentive. Finished the season above seventy percent
completion percentage, got a two million dollars incentive for that.
(27:20):
Got the Seahawks to ten wins, got a two million
incentive for that. Mike Evans got his incentive for thousand yards.
He went crazy on the last play of the game.
That was amazing.
Speaker 2 (27:28):
Yeah. Great.
Speaker 3 (27:29):
What I've loved with this is how unabashedly.
Speaker 1 (27:33):
Aware the players are of their incentives and how excited
their teammates are for him. But then also how the
announcers are, Just like Von Miller just got one point
five million for that sack, Kalayas Campbell just got three
hundred thousand for that seck. Jim Nantz was so excited
when Courland Sutton got his any nine catch. He's like,
he just got five hundred thousand dollars for that catch.
(27:53):
Like it was insane how excited people were.
Speaker 2 (27:56):
Yeah, the von Miller might have been my favorite. He
literally just one handed push Strake May and then he
just knew right away that that counts as a sack.
It was just a very veteran awesome moment for von
Miller getting his money.
Speaker 1 (28:08):
All Right, our final record in the contest. We are
nothing if not accountable. People don't ever say we're not.
We talk about our records every single week. We have
Minnesota three and a half in the contest, thirty nine
and fifty on the year across seventeen completed weeks, finished
with five weeks, finished five.
Speaker 3 (28:27):
Weeks with a winning record. Just terrible.
Speaker 2 (28:30):
It's not as bad as I thought though.
Speaker 3 (28:32):
Really.
Speaker 2 (28:33):
Yeah, honestly I was expecting the worst. Brother. We've been
terrible this year.
Speaker 1 (28:37):
Yeah, I mean, these favorites have just crushed us, absolutely
crushed us.
Speaker 2 (28:42):
It's our first losing season. It hurts, but we'll bounce
back next year. Don't lose faith people.
Speaker 1 (28:47):
Well, the big question is going to be do we overcompensate?
Is this year in our head? Are we betting road favorites?
Are we afraid to bet the dogs? How much do
we think like the thirty yard line start or.
Speaker 2 (29:01):
The five dogs today? Chad, We're not. We have not
changed at all. What are you even talking about?
Speaker 3 (29:11):
All right? Wild card lines?
Speaker 1 (29:13):
The one NFC line that we have so far, green
Bay plus three and a half at Philly your first instinct.
Speaker 2 (29:21):
I mean, they're basically begging you to take Green Bay
and I'm gonna throw a quick, quick penny on the
Eagles right there. It was three. The lines moved basically
off of a couple of key injuries, right, Jordan Love
got Watson, Watson got hurt. I think another receiver of
theirs might have got hurt in this game. You know
already talked about Jerry or Alexander missing this this game,
(29:44):
he's done for the season pretty much, so yep, you
know they're missing their deep threat, rye receiver, the number
one cornerback, and their quarterbacks banked up like this number
is gonna keep going up. If the news comes out
it's anything worse and they might be playing a backup,
which I honestly don't hate for Green Bay if they're
stuck in that position because I think and you both agree,
where Jordan Love has just been shaky. Even that game
(30:06):
before he got hurt, he did not look comfortable, like
he never got into a rhythm against that Bears team
and Eagles. You know, as much as people want to
bash him about some of their weaker competition, they still
are the number one pass defense this season. So it's like,
if Green Bay wants to lean into them just running
the ball, that would be nice for them, but to me, yeah,
(30:28):
I can't already tell you this number is gonna be
too low. Like I honestly thought this would open up four.
I was excited to tell us to bet the Eagles
at three. I'm still happy to take the three and
a half. I can just see this going up, especially
if the injury news does come out. This is gonna
get up to what six or seven?
Speaker 1 (30:41):
Chaid, Yeah, my first instinct on this was we're betting
the Eagles. Like I just I keep thinking about this defense.
It's just it's so good, and in the latter half
of the year it's been so dominant, and I keep
thinking about their defensive tackles and the strength of the Packers.
Whether it's Jordan Love or anyone else, is going to
(31:02):
be Josh Jacobs running up the middle.
Speaker 3 (31:04):
That's how they win the game, right.
Speaker 1 (31:06):
They lean into him early, they try to establish the
line of scrimmage, they try to get some touchdowns early
in the game based on him. As soon as they
go away from him, they start to struggle. We've seen
that every single time, and I don't even know if
they'll be able to take advantage of him as much
as they have in the past, because that defensive line
for the Eagles is so freaking good.
Speaker 2 (31:28):
Yeah, I think you're right where like that's the Eagles
are going to stack the box like the burner. They've
lost their burner now like the guy on the outside
that kind of get threaten you. I know, Watson hasn't
a great season because he's just been injured all the time.
But you know, he tried to fight through the injury
come back today and I think he got carted out
of the stadium Like that's how bad whatever happened to him.
So yeah, unlucky for the Packers. But again they're the
(31:50):
seventh seats, so it's like this is a very respectable
line for a seventh seat. I think at this exact
point last year against Dallas, I think we got them
an eight point doll right, didn't we get So yeah,
the books are given the respect to Green Bay right
now on this opening line. I think it's too much respect.
They're getting good value and my favorite me and you'll
(32:10):
enjoyed this, Chad. Guess who's also one to five in
the division other than the Green Bay Packers Chicago Bears.
So you guys have the same divisional record this season
as the Green Bay Packers.
Speaker 3 (32:20):
It's not even a rivalry. Doesn't matter, doesn't matter.
Speaker 1 (32:25):
Denver Bronco speaking of a seven seed and a two
seed and an eight point line, Broncos are eight and
a half on the road at Buffalo.
Speaker 3 (32:34):
Give me Buffalo.
Speaker 2 (32:36):
Yeah. And this is interesting though certain books have this
eight and a half. A couple of books already have
this at seven and a half, so it might be
early professional money betting this Denver team. But I'm right
David with you. I hate it. I mean, we're so
chalked to start here, but this feels like two different
levels of class. And I'm happy for you. Bo Nick's
incredible game today, it felt like they ran just two
(32:56):
coverages the entire games. The Chiefs they simply did not
try in any sense of the game. And Bonnix the
season has been a road Warrior chat. So you know,
usually we try to do our four best bets for
wild Card weekend. I don't know if this will be
one of my for maybe it'll be Chad's.
Speaker 3 (33:12):
On the Bills.
Speaker 2 (33:12):
But opening line here minus seven and a half, I
got to take that with this Bills team.
Speaker 1 (33:17):
By the way, for folks who are watching on YouTube,
Simon's having some camera issues, so we apologize he's just
blacking out for a second or two. But it's not
affecting audio or rhythm, or our ability to talk.
Speaker 3 (33:30):
To each other or our love for each other.
Speaker 1 (33:32):
By the way, we were fifty and forty last season,
so a reversal it happens.
Speaker 3 (33:39):
You know, my worst year in the.
Speaker 2 (33:40):
History of dogs. What do they want from us? They
know the show is I know, I know.
Speaker 1 (33:45):
Does Matt Mitchell have an opinion on this Bills game?
As our resident Bill's expert? How does he feel about
such a huge line against a Sean Payton bon Nicks team?
Speaker 4 (33:56):
Chad, I spend almost every playoff season consume with anxiety
about the Buffalo Bills as someone that just needs to
see them win one Super Bowl so I can put
down that heavy leg for the rest of my life. However,
I never worry about wild Card weekend. My life will
be ruined when the Bills inevitably lose at some point
(34:17):
this playoffs. It won't come in the wildcard round. I
just don't see that coming. And maybe I'm inviting disaster.
I'm like, I don't need to invite disaster. Disaster will
find its way to me, I'm just not gonna fucking
worry about Bonnix on the road, So I wish them
the best of luck.
Speaker 1 (34:33):
Let's go back Pittsburgh Steelers. They cannot move the ball
on offense. They have been a train wreck for four
games in a row. Simon, you had been predicting sort
of Russell Wilson's moon balls being shot down to earth.
They have been, and this past weekend against the Bengals,
(34:56):
George Pickens couldn't catch them.
Speaker 3 (34:58):
Now they're gonna be on the road.
Speaker 1 (35:00):
Eight and a half point underdogs against the Baltimore Ravens.
We know all the stats, and again, like we got
shows Tuesday, we got shows Thursday, we got a lot
to unpack. I'm not going to go into detail on
the records, but we know that other than this past
the last time they just played, these games are generally
(35:25):
underdogs cover very very short, very very small spreads. So
this is an anomaly to have this big of a number,
and it's entirely based on what we saw on Saturday.
Speaker 3 (35:42):
I think.
Speaker 2 (35:44):
Exactly no one's We're the only us in professionals and
trend betters are betting the Pittsburgh team. Everyone is going
to throw in the bills with this Ravens team into
their moneyline, parlays into their teasers. It doesn't get much easier.
And this is base every year chat and hey, we
might get caught here. You know we did last year
in this exact scenario of trying to fade Lamar in
(36:07):
round one. But we know Lamar.
Speaker 3 (36:09):
It's just different in the playoffs. He gets tighter and now.
Speaker 2 (36:11):
He's facing this team that historically has been his kryptonite.
I mean, people act like he answered the demons in
that last matchup, but it's like they're one on one
on the season against this team. They split and it's
like this is the defense that knows how to figure out. Now,
you know, we don't know the status of JJ Watt
at this point.
Speaker 3 (36:27):
That's a big deal, JDJ.
Speaker 2 (36:30):
That's a big deal for me, And you're right, like,
that's that guy is a huge deal against Lamar and
stopping what he's so specialized, which is creating plays on
the fly with his legs.
Speaker 3 (36:39):
So no rush to bet it.
Speaker 2 (36:42):
I mean, I'm gonna grab as soon as we get
off this call, I'm gonna drive him to Philly. Grab
a couple eight and a halfs where I can, but
would be shocked if this keeps going up, just because
I know professional money's gonna come in on Pittsburgh.
Speaker 3 (36:53):
It's just it's the professional side.
Speaker 2 (36:55):
This was gonna be the easiest bet. As soon as
I saw how I was laying out that Pittsburgh was
gonna lose to Cinci, I was like, oh my god,
We're gonna get Pittsburgh at at the Ravens in round one,
and it's gonna be us against everyone else. Like no
one's going to be back on this Pittsburgh team, especially
the way they've looked. And I mean we all agree
like they got a lucky covering that last game. I mean,
(37:16):
it was just incredible, incredible how they came back and
covered that. But that's life when you were kicking field goals,
which is what since he did, and I think the
same can be said here, Chad. It feels the type
of game where Lamar might be able to move the
ball up and down the field, but I think he's
going to struggle against this Pittsburgh team in the red zone.
And yeah, this is a big one too. We'll wait
and see if it's all about the injuries, right, we've
seen the difference since this Pittsburgh team has had a
(37:38):
couple of kindreies to their defense as well, right, like
the secondary, big deal, the defensive line, it's a big deal.
So again, not rushing to make a ton of bets
on this one, but I'd be shocked if this is
one of our four.
Speaker 1 (37:51):
Well, look, it's a huge deal. Like that secondary. They
were getting beat up by the Bengals until T. Higgins
went out.
Speaker 2 (37:58):
Everybody, I mean, everything they've played in the stretchers been
attacking that second there Jing.
Speaker 1 (38:02):
So I think we need a lot of You're gonna
go bet the eight and a half, but you still
think the number is gonna go to nine, nine and
a half.
Speaker 2 (38:11):
I think there's a possibility just because we talked about
the injuries, Like if there's no TJ. Watt, I mean
the books might have to take it to ten to
get some money. Resistance against this Ravens team. This is
the darling of the league right now. I mean they've
they've been incredible down the stretch here, and you know
that back door crazy cover they had against Cleveland. It
(38:33):
sets a tone, right they were sloppy and bad in
that game, and they blew them out. I mean, they
dominated them in that second half. So it's just the
public opinion couldn't be any lower on the s Pittsburgh team.
I know Evan's gonna have this amazing stature. You're basically
this rare, rare era of a team that's on a
four game losing streak cutting into the playoffs, or maybe
it's five game loser streak. I think it's four Basically
(38:54):
teams of this Zach scenario. They tend to cover in
the playoffs like no one's no one's gonna buy on them,
so the books are gonna give you a big number.
They tend to step up when of the matter, most
especially in the playoffs.
Speaker 1 (39:05):
I think one of the one of the biggest problems
we had this year is because the favorites kept winning.
Speaker 3 (39:10):
We definitely, at least I did.
Speaker 1 (39:12):
I can't speak for you entirely, but I think we
definitely let a little bit of recency bias seep into
some of our handicapping more than we have in the past.
Speaker 3 (39:24):
And when I say we, I mean me. I'm not
going to speak for you. Yeah, I had no problem
ben favorites.
Speaker 2 (39:30):
I definitely just in the sense of I was out
putting as much big money as I normally would on dogs,
just because what we talked about, I do think I
need more time to dive into the whole kickoff and
teams started the thirty and house. So many teams just
went forward on fourth down this season at midfield Like
It's just it was a very unique season that that's
sometimes I have to adjust and update my model.
Speaker 1 (39:50):
For last game that we have a number four Chargers
three point favorites on the road at the Houston Texans,
I thinking about what this line was going to be
when I was watching the end of the Raiders Chargers game. Obviously,
the last few weeks, we've loved the.
Speaker 3 (40:10):
Chargers and.
Speaker 1 (40:12):
They have not been a team we've been afraid to
bet as favorites on the road. I was a little
surprised this number opened as big as it did. I
just thought it would be closer to pick, to be honest.
So all of a sudden this felt I was like
looking forward to betting the Chargers, and I'm less looking
forward to it now.
Speaker 2 (40:31):
I mean, it's three, and there is a line up
for Tampa Washington, so we can break that one down.
But yeah, this line being minus three, to me, that's
a Chargers line like you said, when it was three
and a half, I was like, fuck, am I really
gonna to bet Houston here? But a minus three? How
do we not take that Charger's number like they're they're
(40:51):
the more complete team as we head into this exact spot.
Like Houston, they did this smart thing today they played
their starters, which is one of the reasons where it's
like not that I hated Tennessee today and moving off
of it because they were playing their starters for in Houston,
but it was more of like, Okay, that's that's a
smart decision. I know a lot of people might hate
on it, but it's like they have not found a
rhythm in weeks Houston's offense, so that was nice for
(41:14):
them to get the opening drive there. But the Chargers
even today, like how they dominated with exactly how we
talked we said they would, right, They just way for
you to make a mistake, and this Houston team has
made a munch of mistakes. And you know, defense is
no they can just shade to Nico Collins, just put
a guy over top of the guy underneath and you know,
force CJ to beat you in other areas and he
(41:35):
just hasn't done it down the stretcher, especially against good teams.
So I'm with you that you know, obviously, in the
perfect world this would have been a pick. Mean, you
would be hammering this Chargers line. But I still think
there's value on the minus three. This number feels right.
I don't want to bet Houston, so I'm open we
can get this in our picks at the end of
the week, but I'd be shocked if stage three. I
(41:55):
could easily see this going up to three and a
half unless there is some respective professor some money come
on the other side. I just I can't see it.
This Houston team, it felt like they overachieved last year,
got lucky to being a weak division this year, and
they're basically running to a team that it's pretty legit
in the Chargers team.
Speaker 3 (42:10):
So what I don't see a Tampa Washington line? What
do you have? Sure right now? They opened at three.
Speaker 2 (42:17):
So when we came on here, I staid it to
I was like, oh my god, you can get Tampa
mice two and a half right now against Washington. That
was a gift. Mine three is still a gift to me,
Like you're getting a rookie on the road here at
a field goal against a veteran Bucks team that you know,
that was their game from hell today. Everything was going wrong,
(42:38):
they found a way like that was as an Eagles fan,
I was praying for them to blow that game. I
would much rather face the Penix Atlanta team than this
veteran Bucks team. So you know, another game that was
probably one of my favorite wins of the day, Like
that was it was truly theater in the sportsbook. You
had grown men crying about Atlanta losing and then other
(42:59):
grown men crying because they won on their Bucks and
it was just really fun for survivor pools. So yeah,
this is a Bucks team that I like this number.
I want to fade Washington and I'm sure the public
will come in on Washington because of what the Bucks
did today and people kind of dismissing them. And I
totally get Jane Daniels the upside, and we talked about
(43:20):
the variants. With him a fourth down, they could easily
win this game. Like this is a good, a strong
number at plus three if you want to take it,
and at two and a half, I'm way more confident
on the bucket three. I'm not dying to take it,
but that's That's where I'm at right now. I like
them as just like the Chargers. I think they're the
better team. They deserve their respect. They're unlike the Chargers.
They're at home here. That feels like a really good
number at home against the rookie. He was on the
(43:42):
road in his first playoff start.
Speaker 3 (43:45):
Baker is ballin.
Speaker 1 (43:46):
He was not going to lose that game today, And
I actually agree with you. To me, this was one
of their most impressive wins of the past two seasons
because they were just getting destroyed. They could have been
glassy eyed and lost confidence on the sideline and been
asking themselves, what's happening, why aren't we winning, like starting
(44:08):
to blame themselves, losing their composure that if they had
one more series, they probably would have covered that game.
Like they just wanted going away. In the second half,
they stopped making stupid mistakes. Bucky Irving, you know, was
running wild, which I think will be in an advantage
against the Commander's defense. We saw what Rico Daubdel did today,
(44:30):
Like they did not have a problem moving the ball
with Trey Lance against the Commander's defense that was trying
for much of the game. So don't hate it, but
we're going to dig in more, a lot more, Yeah,
a lot more to say. We got to do some research,
some fine tuning. Got to see how these numbers move,
see who's injured, see how the seedings finally play out.
(44:53):
After the Vikings and Packers game tonight, reminder, we have
the Minnesota Kings plus three and a half in the
contest our last pick of the year. We're going to
sweat it out and what might be the best game
of the year. The Favorites Podcast is presented by Bet
three sixty five and now new Bet three sixty five.
Customers get one one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus
(45:15):
bets when you bet five dollars. Sign up using promo
code Favorites to Posita ten dollars. Places a bet for
five dollars to get one hundred and fifty dollars in
bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals,
player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary.
At Bet three six five. Must be twenty one or
older in presentdent Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina,
(45:37):
New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky.
Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight
hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditioned restrictions apply. Catch
our next episode live on Tuesday one thirty pm Eastern
on Action Networks YouTube channel.
Speaker 3 (45:56):
Download us from.
Speaker 1 (45:56):
Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods, Rate review, subscribe,
we as five stars say whatever you want. Feedback is
a gift until Tuesday.
Speaker 3 (46:04):
Love You. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If
you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
help is available twenty four to seven at one eight
(46:25):
hundred gambler
Hosts And Creators
Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
Popular Podcasts
Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang
Ding dong! Join your culture consultants, Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang, on an unforgettable journey into the beating heart of CULTURE. Alongside sizzling special guests, they GET INTO the hottest pop-culture moments of the day and the formative cultural experiences that turned them into Culturistas. Produced by the Big Money Players Network and iHeartRadio.
40s and Free Agents: NFL Draft Season
Daniel Jeremiah of Move the Sticks and Gregg Rosenthal of NFL Daily join forces to break down every team's needs this offseason.
Crime Junkie
Does hearing about a true crime case always leave you scouring the internet for the truth behind the story? Dive into your next mystery with Crime Junkie. Every Monday, join your host Ashley Flowers as she unravels all the details of infamous and underreported true crime cases with her best friend Brit Prawat. From cold cases to missing persons and heroes in our community who seek justice, Crime Junkie is your destination for theories and stories you won’t hear anywhere else. Whether you're a seasoned true crime enthusiast or new to the genre, you'll find yourself on the edge of your seat awaiting a new episode every Monday. If you can never get enough true crime... Congratulations, you’ve found your people. Follow to join a community of Crime Junkies! Crime Junkie is presented by audiochuck Media Company.