April 22, 2025 • 39 mins
Just 48 hours remain until the Tennessee Titans are on the clock in Green Bay. Here to discuss the latest NFL Draft betting markets are Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter, who are joined by Draft maven Thor Nystrom of Fantasy Life, whose infamous Thor 500 list ranks the draft's top 500 prospects with a player comparison for each one. Together they go through Thor's Big Board, discuss the potential for trades and mayhem, and speculate on longshot bets still worth making as the draft comes into sharper focus. #Volume
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
I am Chad Moman of the Action Network. Today I'm
joined as always by my co host, my companion, my
compadre might be ff professional better, Simon Hunter.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
Hello, Simon, Chad Draft Week. Brother, this is this is
this is the best.
Speaker 1 (00:31):
We've made it. I'm actually in New York this week.
The weather is turned. It is freaking gorgeous outside. I've
been here for the last couple of days and the
streets are alive. Who questions about what are the freaking
(00:51):
giants gonna do in the draft? The good news the
first round of the NFL Draft is hours hours away,
forty eight hours. Updated draft props springing up across every
major sports book. It's coming a little bit late, but
like spring, it's finally here. Joining us to talk all
(01:13):
things NFL Draft. Is a man so obsessed with it
he ranks five hundred prospects. He is a man who
loves college football so much you'd have to call him.
One of the original listeners of BBOC with Stuckey and
(01:34):
Colin Wilson. You can find his draft big board and
rankings across every position at our friends at Fantasy Life,
Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life A man highly recommended by Matthew Friedman,
who was on the show last week, and he said,
if you're going to get anybody, get this guy. And
(01:55):
that's saying a lot because Matthew he doesn't like to
send out flowers for anybody. We're not going to hold
it against them that Matthew gave them the highest recommendation.
Welcome to the show, thor Aneistrom.
Speaker 3 (02:10):
Thank you so much, Chad. It's good to talk to you.
Good to meet you.
Speaker 4 (02:14):
I been a fan of years for a long time
and excited to talk about the draft today.
Speaker 1 (02:18):
Thanks for coming on, buddy. I love I love your backdrop.
I love that you have, you know, as many helmets
as there are lakes in Minnesota, so that is fantastic.
Before we get to it, like, can you explain how
you collected all these FBS helmets?
Speaker 4 (02:36):
Yeah, I started I started just picking them off on Amazon.
You know, like because when you start and you have
one hundred and thirty four to go, you're just looking
for the cheapest price points, and then at a certain
point you get enough where then you have to have
a spreadsheet of the ones to go, and then at
a certain point from there you're going to have to
start getting individual and then searching them out on the way.
But a couple of them, I had to go to
(02:57):
the university bookstores to get a couple of those up
there right like when we Some of them are pretty rare,
right like at the very bottom of the FBS. But
we completed. We completed our collection about a year ago.
We have now moved down to the FCS. I completed
the NFL one in one fel swoop. I just bought
all thirty two at one time. But now we're back
on the grind with the FCS helmets.
Speaker 1 (03:18):
By the way, who's weed You have a partner in
your collection collection?
Speaker 4 (03:23):
No, it's it's Thor incorporated with the helmet collection.
Speaker 1 (03:27):
How much have you spent on those?
Speaker 4 (03:29):
Oh gosh, yeah, a decent amount. But I will say
I got pretty good price points on most of the
ones behind me that was back at Amazon. When you
get those for twenty twenty two bucks, some of them
even like eighteen with the shipping. So every time I
could do that, you know, and I probably knocked out
half for a little bit more.
Speaker 3 (03:47):
Of that FBS collection doing that, so some of it may.
Speaker 4 (03:50):
Be a little bit cheaper, but of course there were
some in there where you had to get more expensive
because of how rare they are.
Speaker 3 (03:57):
They are so a decent amount, So.
Speaker 1 (04:00):
It's fair to say you've spent at least twenty five
hundred dollars on your helmet collection. Admirable. I hope you
make at least that much betting on the Draft this week.
As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet
three six five. New Bet three sixty five customers get
one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets when you
bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites, deposit
(04:21):
ten dollars place to bet for five dollars to get
one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus
bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,
and more. Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary at Bet
three sixty five. Must be twenty one or older and
present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Louisiana, North Carolina,
New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and older in
(04:44):
Kentucky gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one
eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply,
all right, I mentioned it off the top. You do
the four five hundred, you're ranking five hundred prospects with
(05:07):
five hundred player comparisons. There are only two hundred and
fifty seven total draft spots, so you're basically doing twice
the work. Why are you doing this?
Speaker 4 (05:22):
Because I love it. I guess it would be number
one and then number two. I mean, like the reason
that I constructed the board that big is because when
I was a kid, I'm gonna date myself, but like,
we didn't have big boards on the internet, you know
any I mean when I was in elementary schools, like
when the internet was like invented, right, Like, but I
was obsessed with the NFL Draft from the jump, and
so the way I could get big boards would be
(05:43):
on spring break when we were at the airport.
Speaker 3 (05:45):
You go to the Hudson bookstore.
Speaker 4 (05:46):
You know, and then you're there, You're like looking for
the biggest big board in the back because I want
to follow along when the draft was going cross off
names but you'd only get like fifty player big board
in the back one hundred player big board like never
never longer than that, And so it always frustrated me
because by its time we get to the fourth rounder,
so certainly fit th round, all the names are crossed off,
and then the ticker at the bottom with the best available.
It wasn't going fast enough for me, So I was like,
(06:07):
why doesn't someone have a bigger big board than this
get you through the draft, but also gets you into
the udfaith process. So that's why I went to five hundred.
And then I love player comps and I always wonder
why there, you know, there wasn't more player comps out there.
Everyone comps the top guys, what about the other guys?
So anyway, that's I'm kind of a sickle with it,
as you can see, take a lot of pride in
(06:29):
my player comps, especially the ones way way down the board.
Speaker 3 (06:31):
So I hope people like.
Speaker 1 (06:33):
Him, Simon, I don't know about you. Every year at
the draft, not so much for the NFL, but definitely
for the NBA Draft. My son and I will watch
the NBA Draft. We love it, absolutely love it, and
I always make him pretend to give the speech where
he's crying and thanking me when he's the first round pick,
(06:57):
the way every other first round pick gets up there
and like answers the same question, and they want to
think like I might, I might make him act at
least one of them out during the draft when we're
watching it. The one thing I hate. So I'm going
to pick a bone with Thor right off the bat. Yeah,
I love him already, but I'm going to pick a bone.
(07:17):
I hate the player of comparisons, Simon. I don't know
about you, but like because too often the player comparisons,
they try to take players who are, in the case
of the NBA but also the NFL, relatively young, relatively undeveloped,
and they immediately go to player X who just won
the MVP, or player ACX, who like was a Triple
(07:40):
Crown winner as a receiver, or this guy is going
to Hall of Fame. It's so unrealistic. It makes absolutely
no sense. Simon, I don't know if you have a
thought just as a as content, do you find value
in the player comparisons or are you on my side?
And should we just tell Thor to get the fuck
out of your way?
Speaker 3 (08:00):
No?
Speaker 2 (08:00):
I love player comps. It's it's it's why football is
so stupid.
Speaker 1 (08:04):
Chat.
Speaker 2 (08:04):
These people need to fill airtime and to compare a
guy who is what twenty twenty one to an Hall
of famer.
Speaker 3 (08:11):
This is why we love football.
Speaker 2 (08:13):
It's the best, especially when they come on there and
it's always about, you know, comparing someone that you know,
the ceiling best case scenario is that player and they
never reached that potential, right or they exceed it in
many ways.
Speaker 3 (08:27):
So I'm with you it is stupid. But it's someone
that likes.
Speaker 2 (08:30):
Watching the draft. I love it because if it's your guy,
you see it in your own mind, right, You're like, oh,
I can see that comparison if you're this guy's been
drafting your team.
Speaker 3 (08:39):
But I'm with you. Chat.
Speaker 2 (08:41):
Every year, it's gotten worse since they've started doing I
feel like they started doing the mid two thousands. Now
it's just absurd at this point. So, uh yeah, I
would love your thorts take on it.
Speaker 4 (08:50):
I clearly have a different take on player cons you know,
especially when I didn't have this full time, going back
to when I was a kid, right, I mean, you
get a fourth rowned player you've never ever seen him before.
Speaker 3 (09:01):
And a lot of times ESPN.
Speaker 4 (09:03):
You know, you start going on day three, the picks
are quicker, and then it's the thing of like, oh,
here's here's the last six picks, and maybe mel could
speak to one of the six guys. And if one
of the six guys, you know it wasn't the Viking
on the list.
Speaker 3 (09:17):
I was always frustrated because it's.
Speaker 4 (09:18):
Like, I want to know that you know a little
bit about that player's game that putting it in the
five hundred board with the comp and then just the
basics the height, weight measurements, the RADS score. I'm trying
to put a totem in in that person's had who's
never seen that player before of of you know, expected
career progression, uh, and a guy that was similar the
(09:40):
size and the athleticism and hopefully playing style as well.
You can't always hit uh, you know, the all four
of those with one bullet.
Speaker 3 (09:47):
I try to be as realistic as.
Speaker 4 (09:49):
I can with those comps while keeping it trying to
have it so that audience members know who those players are.
When I'm when I'm ranking a guy as a UDFA,
I not only and I not rank him to a
Hall of Famer I can't rank him to a guy
who had a long successful career or any success really, right,
And so you're again you're trying to get it as
close to the career progression as possible, and I see
(10:11):
you as a UDFA. That's where it gets interesting for me.
The college football ciccos, Stucky and Wilson. You shouted them
out before. Guys like that you will appreciate down the
board my comps. I think you know college football cycles
might appreciate those the most. But I'm with you, guys,
I try to keep it within the fairway as far
as fair expectations with that. So I hope that criticism
(10:33):
that you guys have a comps in general, I hope
when you look through my board you feel like I've
addressed that.
Speaker 1 (10:39):
Do you have a That was such a respectful answer
when I'm trying to insult you first question off the bat.
I appreciate the respectful discourse. Give me an example of
a player comp that you've done in the recent past
or throughout the years you've been doing this. You were
(11:01):
in grade school and board that you're like, oh, I
nailed that. It was like a whatever the pick was,
whether it was a high pick and you got a
you you comped it to a really high level player
or a mid round pick or by the way u
dfa undrafted free agent. Like, give me an example of
a player comp that you nailed.
Speaker 4 (11:20):
I would say, and this wasn't even the best player
comp but uh, but it worked and it fits this situation.
I had Lamar Jackson as a top five overall player
in his class and I comped him the right handed
Michael Vick and it wasn't perfect to get. You know,
vic had more arm strength. There's slight there's slight differences
with them as as runners as well, and and Jackson
(11:42):
was more polished as a passer coming out. He played
at the ear Heart in the ear Heart Perkins system
for Bobby Patrino at Louisville. Earhart Perkins is what Bill
Parcells used the Giants their dynasty, and then Bill Belichick
with the Patriots. It's Earhart Perkins is the offense that
Tom Brady ran. But there was enough similarities there and
a very unique player coming into the league. We hadn't
(12:02):
seen many guys like Lamar Jackson, so that was I
guess that would be probably be one of my pet
favorite ones. What about your worst that same class at
rank Josh Rosen first overall, So I can't really come on, yeah,
I'll take my flowers for Jackson one of my best
calls with the draft, and then but then four slots
ahead of it, I made one of my worst. So yeah,
(12:25):
you know, you make five hundred predictions on out comes
that haven't occurred yet, which is what a five hundred
prospect draft board is. You're gonna be wrong a whole
onch each year. You're just trying to be right more
than wrong. Chad is very much like sports betting, you know.
I mean that's you cannot get one hundred percent of
your bets right, you can, It's hard to even get
to sixty five or close to that, right, You're trying
(12:46):
to break the what is it, fifty one and a
half percent where you beat the big any anywhere in there, right,
Like we're trying to get fifty five, fifty six, fifty
eight percent season over the whole course of it.
Speaker 3 (12:59):
With the value it's closer to that.
Speaker 4 (13:01):
You're just trying to juice your odds at the margins
and then just push it a little bit higher than
your your colleagues are.
Speaker 3 (13:06):
In that case, the books.
Speaker 1 (13:08):
Here's what I love. Your big your latest big board.
You got Travis Enter Hunter number one overall and the
comp shohey Otani. I think is great and super creative
and brilliant. But if someone is looking at this at
(13:28):
fantasy life, how do you justify it and explain it
so they take it seriously that you're not just sort
of saying, all right, here's a great all around two
way player and there's no comp in football, So you
got to go with the comp in baseball? How do
you how do you put it in context for football?
Speaker 3 (13:49):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (13:49):
So with comms, the thing that I don't like is
doing like or Man's blank, a rich Man's blank, or
this guy with you know, I like to just have
it be the name when I can. And so what
I started with Hunter is like, Okay, which individuals could
I comp them to? And that's a very short list
that you even theoretically could, right, Deon Sanders, maybe Champ Bailey,
(14:10):
maybe Charles Woodson. Maybe none of them really fit though,
And so then it was like, all right, I'm you know,
scrap dat, I'll go wide receiver Travis Hunter, Odell Beckham
feel good about that cornerback and you know then I
was thinking through it, and then it's like, this is
getting too convoluted. We've never seen something like Travis Hunter before.
(14:30):
We just call him shoey Otani because it's the same
sort of a thing.
Speaker 3 (14:34):
It puts.
Speaker 4 (14:34):
It puts the more accurate totem in the reader's brain
of this is a two way guy that is unprecedented
for the sport.
Speaker 3 (14:41):
And so is it a little bit silly? Yeah?
Speaker 4 (14:43):
Is it the first time that I on my five
hundred board that I have someone commed to a professional
baseball player?
Speaker 3 (14:47):
Yeah, but this is.
Speaker 4 (14:48):
A unicorn, you know, And I found it funny, and
I've been calling him show hey, all process and a
unicorn all process, and some of it is silly. But
then Andrew Barry last week Cleveland Brown's GM goes up
there at his press conference and repeated refers to Travis
Hunter at shoheo tawani and a unicorn. So you know
it's I think they found what I found, which is
I'm not saying he copied me. I think he went
(15:09):
along the same process of there's not a guy in
NFL history that one to one I can comp this
guy too.
Speaker 1 (15:15):
Listen, you got to start taking some Matthew Berry lessons
about marketing. He copied you read your stuff. He loved it.
He's like this guy Thor I'm with him. He's got
the power of the hammer, and I believe this is
the absolute right comparison.
Speaker 3 (15:32):
So just to own it, we're gonna go with that.
I accept that interpretation.
Speaker 1 (15:36):
Tell Barry, I gave you that idea.
Speaker 3 (15:38):
Done, okay.
Speaker 2 (15:39):
Yeah, So looking at your big board here, it is
pretty interesting that you know, you, as a lot of
other rankers have Sanders ahead of cam Ward and you know,
I've seen mel Kiper he's been talking about think Joe
Klatt even talked about having Sators above him. What's your
explanation for that? Is it just you you like Sanders
game to transition better in the NFL, or you just
(16:00):
don't like Ward's game compared to Sanders game.
Speaker 4 (16:03):
Yeah, they're one spot a part of my big board
eight and nine. I do have Sanders eight and Sanders
was my bell to bell quarterback one. I do like
him a little bit more and like him a little
bit more in the translation to the NFL Shoulder, Sanders
elite accuracy, elite placement, could put that ball wherever he wants.
It consistently leads guys into space, does cool things with
the ball, shading it away from defenders, giving his receiver
(16:24):
the best of it. That thing of facilitating the yak
yardage with leading the receiver into space. The other thing
with that is he does not turn the ball over,
So it's it's it's. Those two skills absolutely will translate
to the NFL. The chain mover guy the elite accuracy
and is going to take care of the ball for you,
whereas with just super steady Eddie should hear Sanders, whereas
(16:47):
with Cam moored you get more of the roller coaster ride.
Speaker 3 (16:50):
Cam Word for.
Speaker 4 (16:51):
Sure has the better arm, no question about it, and
it leads to more explosive plays that you know, but
that comes in conjunction with an elevated turnover rate. Last year,
Cam woard three times Shudier Sanders' turnover worthy play rate.
And the way that I see this, my supposition is
that you cannot lower the turnover worthy play rate and
(17:12):
what you see with Cam ord with that without doing
so in kind to his explosive play rate.
Speaker 3 (17:17):
This is the Brett fav corollary.
Speaker 4 (17:19):
You can't make him be more conservative without again in
kind lowering the explosive plays. To get access to all
those explosive plays, you have to live.
Speaker 3 (17:29):
With the turnovers. So Cam Woard's team, you are going
to experience more of the up and down.
Speaker 4 (17:34):
There's there's gonna be game flipping plays where he makes
it throw that you that you haven't seen a while
and it's gonna lead to an explosive play. There's also
going to be times where people are putting their heads
through walls because he threw an interception to flipped the
game late. So I mean you're gonna have to live
with some of that kind of stuff. I do like
the ceiling on that player, but I think there's always
going to be the elevated turnover rate within his game.
Speaker 1 (17:56):
Have you interesting?
Speaker 3 (17:57):
I got so?
Speaker 4 (17:58):
Have you?
Speaker 2 (17:58):
Or would you take a position on his over under
of eight and a half. It's up to plus two
eighty five plus three hundred a lot of books. So
do you think he's gonna go under that or do
you think he's going over eight and a half? Pick
plus two eighty five is the over under plus two
eighty five?
Speaker 1 (18:13):
Oh?
Speaker 4 (18:13):
I would nibble on that for sure. I don't think
that's a fixed outcome. I mean the Giants. Why would
their ownership ship group have gone to Shudeer Sanders' last
private workout, including with their coaching staff, if they weren't interested. Definitely,
not saying the Giants will take him, but I think
it's it's you know, the two outcomes before that I
think are fixed cam Or one Travis Hunter two. I
(18:34):
think the Giants pick it's like eighty five percent Abdul Carter,
but I do think you have to put fifteen percent
on Setier saying something like that, just because of the
presence of that. And then I also think, you know,
you look at some of the slots, you know in
between there's a possibility not only for trades, but you know,
you could see Shudeer Sanders go before that. It'll be
(18:54):
interesting to see what the Saints and the nine slot.
Obviously that number is nodding to that. Do the Saints gets.
Are the Saints in on Shudeer Sanders. We'll see on that,
and then did they get skittish if they are teams
trying to move hop them? So I but at those
odds nearly three to one, I would nibble on the under.
Speaker 1 (19:14):
Here's what's interesting to me. You've got should or Sanders comp.
If we're going to go into the comps and now
I love them, it's Baker Mayfield Ward is Jordan Love.
The way you described cam Ward and the high turnover
probability and the difficulty in taking that down, that to
(19:36):
me feels more like Baker Mayfield than Jordan Love. I thought,
you know, last year could be an anomaly with Jordan Love
because he was injured for much of the year. So
why the Jordan Love comp for Baker may for cam
Ward when Baker Mayfield is usually the guy who is
more prone to turnovers. And the kind of play I
(20:00):
think you've just described is akin to the way Kim
Ward plays.
Speaker 4 (20:05):
Yeah, as you guys know, like prospects, when they get
into the NFL, this circumstance and the situation that they're
in can obviously heavily influence them. It can make or
break them, and it can also change somewhat their tendency
as players, you know, through this scheme and through the
culture and whatnot. When Jordan Love came out of Utah State,
I believe his last season there it was twelve to
(20:26):
fourteen interceptions. It was like he threw a bunch of interceptions,
but you had the really cool stuff with the side arm,
the slots getting the ball out quickly, had all the
arm talent in the world, and he got his multiple
years sitting in the NFL trying to work through some
of that stuff waiting his turn and the Green Bay
Packers system. Now there has been some inoculation of that,
(20:48):
but he has obviously improved with that with that comp
I am nodding back to Jordan Love coming out of
Utah State with Kim Moore, you know, the similar things
You're going to have to work on there, you know.
But again, I think that turnover worthy rate's going to
stay high. But I just think the prospect of Cammore
coming out of Miami is very similar to what we
(21:09):
saw with Jordan Love coming out of Utah State.
Speaker 1 (21:12):
Simon, right now, if you had to make a bet,
would you rather bet on Baker Mayfield or would you
rather bet on Jordan Love as a quarterback? Who are
you more comfortable betting on?
Speaker 3 (21:26):
We?
Speaker 2 (21:26):
We all I know here on this show chat, we're
a Baker show.
Speaker 1 (21:28):
I was going to say to me, it's Baker. I'm
not sure I'm betting on Jordan Love without Matt Lafleur.
But I just think that's an interesting comp I like
what Thor did here because you guys know, you guys
know how much I love the comps. And now I'm
all in, and so I do not have to be
intractable when it comes to my positions and opinions. Going
(21:51):
back Thor till last year, even before JJ McCarthy was
drafted by Minnesota, you were all over McCarthy, one of
his loudest, most public advocates. Explain what brought you to
that conclusion? Do you still feel that way with him
(22:12):
coming off the injury?
Speaker 4 (22:14):
For sure, I do it to the latter and to
the former. People are just missing it with him early
in the process. I gotta, you know, watch all the
Michigan games live down the stretch. When they won the
national title, they faced the procession of just killer defense,
as that's what a top ten pick looks like, beating
the Iowa's, the Penn States, the Ohio States, you know,
and then getting into the playoff. Like I said, it
was just sort of a murders row of defense, as
(22:36):
culminating in the Semis against Nick Saban's Alabama Crimson tied
out a nasty defense and Michigan doesn't roar back without
JJ McCarthy to advance the national title, and obviously they
whipped Washington once they got there.
Speaker 3 (22:47):
But McCarthy elite athlete. He had a tight.
Speaker 4 (22:50):
Hamstring at the Combine last year, he still ran the
six fastest three cone of anyone at any position. He
didn't do the runs there because of that hamstring. But
at Michigan they said his last own tests were high
four to fours. Kevin O'Connell said that he would be
low four five's. But however, you want to see that.
You see the mobility on the field, he makes people miss.
Speaker 3 (23:09):
One of the.
Speaker 4 (23:09):
Better on the run throwers that you will see. He
keeps his mechanics with him no matter what when he
is moving behind the line of scrimmage, so he can
access all three sectors of the field, and he keeps
his eyes down field, so you'll see some really cool
stuff with him creating out of structure in structure. He
was his wild stallion, sort of a Prospect five star
when he went to Michigan, and then he played in
(23:31):
the pro style offense for Jim Harbo, the twelve personnel
pro style offense that is very earily similar to what
Kevin O'Connell runs. But in that system you had to
learn to play within structure, right, So it's this potential
out of structure virtue also of a prospect that was
broken to play in that, you know, within the concepts
of that pro style system. And by the end of
(23:52):
his career, the third season before his twenty first birthday,
on the season where they ended up winning the national title,
he was the best thrower of the ball intermediate between
the hashes in the country. He was also the best
quarterback in the country on all the high leverage throws.
He cut the numbers third and medium, third and long,
all those sorts of things. He had, you know, a
good sample of those throws, and he was the most
(24:14):
efficient and the best in the class, and by the way,
against by far the hardest strength of schedule of any
of those six top quarterbacks and in the highest leverage spots.
Of course, they made that run to the national title.
People are like, oh, JJ, he was supported by his
supporting cast and they were the ones that carried him there. Really,
when he got to Michigan, they were two and four.
The team was so bad that they were considering firing
(24:35):
Jim Harbor in fact, he had to go into the
university president's office and accept frustrate himself essentially and accept
a salary reduction in order to stay. JJ came in
the next recruiting class. They've made the playoffs three straight seasons,
obviously the last season with that national title.
Speaker 3 (24:52):
So this kid is ready to play.
Speaker 4 (24:54):
Jim harbaught that NFL coach that he played for, the
citing NFL head coach that he was the best prospect
in last year's class. I wasn't quite as high, so
I wasn't the highest guy on McCarthy. That definitely would
have been Jim. But I have McCarthy number three overall
on my board.
Speaker 1 (25:06):
Simon, before I know, you want to jump in with
a question. You're all over Michigan. You've got well Johnson
other than Travis Hunter being the top corner. You've got
their two defensive tackles very highly ranked. You love their
tight end. What is it about the Michigan program you've
(25:27):
seen in the years of doing this kind of coverage,
especially lately, that has helped them develop such high potential
draft picks.
Speaker 4 (25:38):
The development that Harbaugh does, he identifies the dudes obviously
their national recruiting brand, it was an NFL program, the
training program that they had there, it was NFL ask
and finding guys that can fit the system and then
sort of build them up. These guys that come out
of the Michigan program that Harbaugh had, Harbaugh brought in,
there's a lot of polish to those skill set and
(26:00):
they were playing four NFL coaches in NFL systems, which
obviously a poc NFL and now with that coaching staff
half of it or more. And also guys that were
in the pro that are not the the personnel department
for Michigan identifying the talent whatnot. A lot of those
guys are in the NFL now sort of spread around.
Some of them followed Jim. His son Jay is the
(26:22):
Seahawks Special Teams coordinator, Spy Tech is the Raiders GM.
They're all over the place. So you see that influence
as well. And then I mean, beyond that the other
hardbaughs that are in the NFL and then the branches
of those threes. So the intel is sort of all
out there on these polished prospects and makes for an
easier acclamation of the NFL.
Speaker 2 (26:42):
Yeah, last week, Chad, it was it was probably the
biggest ups that we had where I had so many
professionals better reach out to me about Todd mcshag like,
he came on here and said a lot and he
kept me busy all weekend. I basically my biggest position
at this point is Ashton genty being a top you know,
six and a half pick, so basically the odds. On
our show, Chad, he says he likes gent to be
(27:03):
a higher pick that people realize. And you know, he
gave up that Patriots nugget which was sixteen to one
when he said it is now down to six to one,
which is pretty insane. It was eight and a half
minus two hundred to go under eight and a half pick.
Now it's down to under six and a half minus
four fifty. So I took a large position. Shout out
(27:25):
to our guy, Todd McShay, I would love to know
your review. Thor On, is this news of this running
back moving up the top five reel? Are you seeing
guys mock him as the Patriots or the Jaguars or
is it just all a smoke screen and the Patriots
are going to pass on him, the Jags are gonna
pass on the Raiders will pass on him. I'm about
(27:45):
to lose a ton of money, is what is happening
right now? This running back and being a top five pick.
Speaker 3 (27:50):
Gensy for sure is in play for the top five
the end. The floor for him is six.
Speaker 4 (27:54):
Like if he gets there, the Raiders are going to
take him, and so that, you know, it becomes the
race with that that I as far as the Patriots
go with it. My take on the Patriots is it's
been sort of sneaky and sort of suspicious that it's
just like, oh, yeah, it's Will Campbell. That's another free
spot on the point. Why is why is it Will Campbell?
I don't think Will Campbell can play tackle in the NFL,
(28:15):
much less succeed at it. We don't have any data
for a guy whose arms are that short and wingspan
is that short, even hanging at tackle. So I think
that's an interior player. And then you know, you hear
when people are like, why you know, why do you
like Will Campbell so much? Oh, he's so great in interviews,
He's such a good guy. That doesn't justify the fourth pick.
If you were the Patriots and then people just assumed
you were going to take Will Campbell, would you tell
(28:37):
your media contacts, No, no, no, it's not gonna be Will Campbell.
It's going to be whether it's Gentee, whether it's you know,
whoever the real target is. Or would you just be like, yeah,
they're right, we're gonna take Will Campbell.
Speaker 2 (28:47):
Right, I'll just say, generally speaking, are there any bets
that you've made, Like, are there like draft markets you've
been attacking? Are you just being patient kind of seeing
how this week's going to settle because people they think
it's gonna be really chalk. I don't know about you,
and I feel like those are the best years you
could take advantage where everyone thinks they know the first
four picks two weeks before the draft, Like that's what it.
Speaker 3 (29:08):
Feels like this year.
Speaker 2 (29:09):
Are there any markets you're attacking or are you just being patient?
Speaker 3 (29:12):
It's not gonna be shocked.
Speaker 4 (29:14):
We're gonna be in for a while night on Thursday.
The drafts where you can predict them easier, it's the
ones where I mean two things, you have more of
the top first round quarterbacks, right, because those guys become
free spots on the board. Last year we had the
six of them, we didn't know where all of them
were going. We knew where a few of them were
going in advance, not but you knew that they were
going to go fairly high. So you got some free
(29:36):
spots on the board there and then otherwise just elite
prospects at premium positions.
Speaker 3 (29:39):
We have less of those in this class.
Speaker 4 (29:41):
Right, The receiver class is way down to left tackle
class is way down and you know some of those
different premium positions. So because of that, we have less
predictability here, right. I know that, like I said, no,
the first two picks feel decent. Is ish about the
third one? After that, I think this thing is wide open.
I think you're going to see a lot of trades.
(30:02):
I think you're going to see unexpected guys fall and
then unexpected guys get pulled up, and I think that
that's going to lead to movement as well. But yeah,
I don't think that this is going to be predictable
at all the way that this class is constituted.
Speaker 1 (30:14):
Well, look, you just mentioned you've got a lot of
trades your do two round mock last week, including predictions
about how many quarterbacks go in the first round. You
know that number two and a half, three and a
half has been an active market. You mocked multiple trades.
So far there haven't been any, right, and so this
(30:35):
is the latest weep scene before the draft with zero movement.
Why do you feel so confident?
Speaker 4 (30:44):
Well, I think there's a wait and see element with
some of these NFL teams because of this sort of
uncertain paradigm that we find ourselves saying. You know that
that I was just sort of speaking to. And I
think because of that, you're actively monitoring the situations that
your designated position groups of your team needs. You're gonna
have to do that in the mom because what is
the scenario, right Like, this is like a it's like
a doctor strange draft, right Like, at once you get
(31:06):
to four, if that thing is different than Will Campbell,
it opens up all these realities that we didn't know before. Right,
and then the fifth pick ex right, I mean if Jens'
is not the fourth pick, but then he could absolutely
go five, and it absolutely could be via a trade.
These things are going to open up these again, these
possibilities we haven't seen before. And for teams, I think
(31:27):
that's what they're waiting for. Is there a scenario where
let's say it's a wide receiver needy team in the twenties.
Is there a shot that Tedroll McMillan starts to fall
deeper than we think right, and we can get access
to him. Maybe he doesn't fall the way to us,
but maybe that we can make a small move up
the board for him. I think that's what it is.
I think this sets up for more trades during the draft.
(31:47):
But because the environment that we're in not pre draft
like the one with the Vikings and the Texans last
year that was like a month or six weeks before
the draft, where the Vikings were able to get the
other first round pick, right, they were able to package
you know, some of that in order to do that.
They were doing that because the quarterback environment, right, they
wanted the second bullet to potentially be able to trade up.
(32:10):
They just didn't want to be boxed out of those
top quarterbacks. And you know, of course the Bears with
the Panthers was a year before that, that big trade,
the Bryce Young one that was done in advance because
of the quarterback. A lot of times it's the really
strong quarterback classes that lead to the trades in.
Speaker 3 (32:25):
Advance of it. But yeah, the quarterback class down this year.
Speaker 1 (32:29):
So speaking of quarterbacks in your mock, you had three
qbs in the first round. Tell everybody who those qbs are,
and I would assume that means, depending on the market,
you're going to be betting over two and a half
or under three and a half quarterbacks in the first round.
But explain your positioning on quarterbacks right now.
Speaker 3 (32:51):
Yeah, I had Dirt going twenty one to the Steelers,
and so like, you know, you look ten days or
you know, two weeks ago, you know, in advance of that,
I would have I would have said under two and
a half quarterbacks. But the way that this steam has
gone and the new and whatnot, I'm going over that
for sure.
Speaker 4 (33:09):
And that you know, the three and a half market,
the adjusted one, you know, I would potentially be interested
in that, depending on the price of going over that too.
Guyse Jackson Dart looks like he has a decent shot
to go in the first round. I think the Steelers
are the fit that makes the most sense. Obviously obviously
have a need there. And then an Arthur Smith's offense.
You have a lot of the play action concepts throwing deep.
(33:30):
Jackson Dart did a lot of that, the mobility as
well that Arthur Smith likes Jackson Dart has that as well.
And then the Jalen Milroe is the other guy. Jalen
Milroe sort of the mystery guy there who's lurking. Opened
up a lot of eyes when the NFL invited Jalen
Milroe to the NFL Draft. The NFL does not make
a lot of mistakes with their invites, and so that
was tipping off and telegraphing to you that Jalen Milroe
(33:52):
is going to go not only higher than the media
had assumed, but that he has a real shot to
get into the first round. And I think this scenario
that makes all the sense in the world. There is
the Cleveland Browns trading up from thirty three a couple
spots and taking Jalen Milroe at the end of the
first round. Cleveland Browns is offensive coordinator. Tommy Reese was
the offensive coordinator at Alabama in twenty twenty three when
(34:13):
Jalen Milroe down the stretch there looked like a future
number one overall pick. It wasn't until last year. Down
the stretch through the end of September, jala Melroe still
looked like a future number one overall pick. He shredded
Georgia's defense like you never see a quarterback shred a
Kirby smart defense. At the end of September. It devolved
from there though, down the stretch and Doub's where the
(34:33):
push and pull came. With Kayalin Debor trying to get
Jaln Milroe shoved the square peg into the round hole
of his passing offense. The boar did not want Milroe
to leave the pocket. Wanted to pin him in there
on the passing concepts and get the ball out. And
with Jalen Milroe, you have to let him off the
leash to give him the freedom to be able to
run as well when he doesn't see it. Tommy Reese
knows how to construct an offense around him. That's what
(34:55):
Andrew Berry was talking about last week at his press conference.
So I think that would be the fourth one there.
Speaker 2 (35:00):
And you talked about how this draft, I mean a
lot of people have that. It's just really solid throughout right.
It's not so much you know, blue Chippers top heavy,
but you know you can get a great pick at
you know, pick forty five is the same pick as
someone's taken apparently at twelve or thirteen. Like that's how
deep people think these d lines. Are you know the dns?
I'm interesting, Do you have anyone because I've talked a
(35:22):
lot of pros they have guys like you know, Jack Sawyer,
who's eighteen to one now to be our first rounder.
Do you have anyone like that you could see sneaking
into the first round that has crazy long shot value?
Right now where it's such a draft of randomness, is
there someone that really jumps out.
Speaker 3 (35:35):
To you as far?
Speaker 4 (35:37):
I would have to have the odds board in front
of me, but there there are a couple guys that I.
Speaker 3 (35:41):
Take a shot on it, just like popularly, maybe aren't.
Speaker 4 (35:46):
The longest shot would be probably I don't know what
Benjamin Morrison's odds are, but as a mystery box, whatever
the odds are, it'd probably be worth like what do
you call pizza money bet because we don't know what
the reports on the hips were. Right on Benjamin Morrison's hip,
that's a guy who would have been an all day
first round pick had he not gotten injured. He had
(36:06):
the hip injury that is scary, absolutely, But if he
gets enough clearance from the medical stats in the NFL,
he becomes in play for the first round. So you know,
just on that Chevon Ravel would be another guy. The
cornerback class drops off pretty quick. But those two injured guys,
they're both first round guys. Just depending on what the
medical teams have said, those will probably be two long
(36:28):
shots for me. I wouldn't do any receivers. I'm actually
I like the Juice Todds on the under two and
a half receivers in the first round. You're gonna see McMillan,
you're gonna see Golden. I think there's there's a lot
of scenarios where we're both like Buka and Burden fall
to the second round to open that thing up, and
I think that think's closer to a coin flip as
(36:49):
far as probabilities go than the two to one near
two to one is suggesting with that.
Speaker 3 (36:54):
But yeah, that's that's how I go with that.
Speaker 2 (36:56):
I'll give people the real quick Chavon three to one
Benjamin one, so pretty good odds if you're going to
take some long shots on that.
Speaker 1 (37:03):
Yeah, Yeah, tend to one feels like really good number
for jumping in. Based on Thor's evaluation, Simon, I think
Thor just came on the favorites and he freaking dominated.
He was ready with every comp he was ready to
combat my idiotic ideas. He was more thorough than the
(37:26):
full wall of helmets that he spent about eighty thousand
dollars on that are pegged to his wall right now.
Thorn Eistrom Fantasy Life. Matthew Friedman is right. You crush
this great job.
Speaker 3 (37:42):
Appreciate it. Thank you so much, Chad awesome.
Speaker 1 (37:44):
For doing it. Really fanantastic listen. The Favorites is presented
by bet three six five. Sign up using promo code Favorites,
deposit ten dollars, place a bet for five dollars to
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(38:04):
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(38:26):
and I will return with our next episode of The
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(38:50):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
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available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler
Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
I am Chad Moman of the Action Network. Today I'm
joined as always by my co host, my companion, my
compadre might be ff professional better, Simon Hunter.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
Hello, Simon, Chad Draft Week. Brother, this is this is
this is the best.
Speaker 1 (00:31):
We've made it. I'm actually in New York this week.
The weather is turned. It is freaking gorgeous outside. I've
been here for the last couple of days and the
streets are alive. Who questions about what are the freaking
(00:51):
giants gonna do in the draft? The good news the
first round of the NFL Draft is hours hours away,
forty eight hours. Updated draft props springing up across every
major sports book. It's coming a little bit late, but
like spring, it's finally here. Joining us to talk all
(01:13):
things NFL Draft. Is a man so obsessed with it
he ranks five hundred prospects. He is a man who
loves college football so much you'd have to call him.
One of the original listeners of BBOC with Stuckey and
(01:34):
Colin Wilson. You can find his draft big board and
rankings across every position at our friends at Fantasy Life,
Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life A man highly recommended by Matthew Friedman,
who was on the show last week, and he said,
if you're going to get anybody, get this guy. And
(01:55):
that's saying a lot because Matthew he doesn't like to
send out flowers for anybody. We're not going to hold
it against them that Matthew gave them the highest recommendation.
Welcome to the show, thor Aneistrom.
Speaker 3 (02:10):
Thank you so much, Chad. It's good to talk to you.
Good to meet you.
Speaker 4 (02:14):
I been a fan of years for a long time
and excited to talk about the draft today.
Speaker 1 (02:18):
Thanks for coming on, buddy. I love I love your backdrop.
I love that you have, you know, as many helmets
as there are lakes in Minnesota, so that is fantastic.
Before we get to it, like, can you explain how
you collected all these FBS helmets?
Speaker 4 (02:36):
Yeah, I started I started just picking them off on Amazon.
You know, like because when you start and you have
one hundred and thirty four to go, you're just looking
for the cheapest price points, and then at a certain
point you get enough where then you have to have
a spreadsheet of the ones to go, and then at
a certain point from there you're going to have to
start getting individual and then searching them out on the way.
But a couple of them, I had to go to
(02:57):
the university bookstores to get a couple of those up
there right like when we Some of them are pretty rare,
right like at the very bottom of the FBS. But
we completed. We completed our collection about a year ago.
We have now moved down to the FCS. I completed
the NFL one in one fel swoop. I just bought
all thirty two at one time. But now we're back
on the grind with the FCS helmets.
Speaker 1 (03:18):
By the way, who's weed You have a partner in
your collection collection?
Speaker 4 (03:23):
No, it's it's Thor incorporated with the helmet collection.
Speaker 1 (03:27):
How much have you spent on those?
Speaker 4 (03:29):
Oh gosh, yeah, a decent amount. But I will say
I got pretty good price points on most of the
ones behind me that was back at Amazon. When you
get those for twenty twenty two bucks, some of them
even like eighteen with the shipping. So every time I
could do that, you know, and I probably knocked out
half for a little bit more.
Speaker 3 (03:47):
Of that FBS collection doing that, so some of it may.
Speaker 4 (03:50):
Be a little bit cheaper, but of course there were
some in there where you had to get more expensive
because of how rare they are.
Speaker 3 (03:57):
They are so a decent amount, So.
Speaker 1 (04:00):
It's fair to say you've spent at least twenty five
hundred dollars on your helmet collection. Admirable. I hope you
make at least that much betting on the Draft this week.
As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet
three six five. New Bet three sixty five customers get
one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets when you
bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites, deposit
(04:21):
ten dollars place to bet for five dollars to get
one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus
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three sixty five. Must be twenty one or older and
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New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and older in
(04:44):
Kentucky gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one
eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply,
all right, I mentioned it off the top. You do
the four five hundred, you're ranking five hundred prospects with
(05:07):
five hundred player comparisons. There are only two hundred and
fifty seven total draft spots, so you're basically doing twice
the work. Why are you doing this?
Speaker 4 (05:22):
Because I love it. I guess it would be number
one and then number two. I mean, like the reason
that I constructed the board that big is because when
I was a kid, I'm gonna date myself, but like,
we didn't have big boards on the internet, you know
any I mean when I was in elementary schools, like
when the internet was like invented, right, Like, but I
was obsessed with the NFL Draft from the jump, and
so the way I could get big boards would be
(05:43):
on spring break when we were at the airport.
Speaker 3 (05:45):
You go to the Hudson bookstore.
Speaker 4 (05:46):
You know, and then you're there, You're like looking for
the biggest big board in the back because I want
to follow along when the draft was going cross off
names but you'd only get like fifty player big board
in the back one hundred player big board like never
never longer than that, And so it always frustrated me
because by its time we get to the fourth rounder,
so certainly fit th round, all the names are crossed off,
and then the ticker at the bottom with the best available.
It wasn't going fast enough for me, So I was like,
(06:07):
why doesn't someone have a bigger big board than this
get you through the draft, but also gets you into
the udfaith process. So that's why I went to five hundred.
And then I love player comps and I always wonder
why there, you know, there wasn't more player comps out there.
Everyone comps the top guys, what about the other guys?
So anyway, that's I'm kind of a sickle with it,
as you can see, take a lot of pride in
(06:29):
my player comps, especially the ones way way down the board.
Speaker 3 (06:31):
So I hope people like.
Speaker 1 (06:33):
Him, Simon, I don't know about you. Every year at
the draft, not so much for the NFL, but definitely
for the NBA Draft. My son and I will watch
the NBA Draft. We love it, absolutely love it, and
I always make him pretend to give the speech where
he's crying and thanking me when he's the first round pick,
(06:57):
the way every other first round pick gets up there
and like answers the same question, and they want to
think like I might, I might make him act at
least one of them out during the draft when we're
watching it. The one thing I hate. So I'm going
to pick a bone with Thor right off the bat. Yeah,
I love him already, but I'm going to pick a bone.
(07:17):
I hate the player of comparisons, Simon. I don't know
about you, but like because too often the player comparisons,
they try to take players who are, in the case
of the NBA but also the NFL, relatively young, relatively undeveloped,
and they immediately go to player X who just won
the MVP, or player ACX, who like was a Triple
(07:40):
Crown winner as a receiver, or this guy is going
to Hall of Fame. It's so unrealistic. It makes absolutely
no sense. Simon, I don't know if you have a
thought just as a as content, do you find value
in the player comparisons or are you on my side?
And should we just tell Thor to get the fuck
out of your way?
Speaker 3 (08:00):
No?
Speaker 2 (08:00):
I love player comps. It's it's it's why football is
so stupid.
Speaker 1 (08:04):
Chat.
Speaker 2 (08:04):
These people need to fill airtime and to compare a
guy who is what twenty twenty one to an Hall
of famer.
Speaker 3 (08:11):
This is why we love football.
Speaker 2 (08:13):
It's the best, especially when they come on there and
it's always about, you know, comparing someone that you know,
the ceiling best case scenario is that player and they
never reached that potential, right or they exceed it in
many ways.
Speaker 3 (08:27):
So I'm with you it is stupid. But it's someone
that likes.
Speaker 2 (08:30):
Watching the draft. I love it because if it's your guy,
you see it in your own mind, right, You're like, oh,
I can see that comparison if you're this guy's been
drafting your team.
Speaker 3 (08:39):
But I'm with you. Chat.
Speaker 2 (08:41):
Every year, it's gotten worse since they've started doing I
feel like they started doing the mid two thousands. Now
it's just absurd at this point. So, uh yeah, I
would love your thorts take on it.
Speaker 4 (08:50):
I clearly have a different take on player cons you know,
especially when I didn't have this full time, going back
to when I was a kid, right, I mean, you
get a fourth rowned player you've never ever seen him before.
Speaker 3 (09:01):
And a lot of times ESPN.
Speaker 4 (09:03):
You know, you start going on day three, the picks
are quicker, and then it's the thing of like, oh,
here's here's the last six picks, and maybe mel could
speak to one of the six guys. And if one
of the six guys, you know it wasn't the Viking
on the list.
Speaker 3 (09:17):
I was always frustrated because it's.
Speaker 4 (09:18):
Like, I want to know that you know a little
bit about that player's game that putting it in the
five hundred board with the comp and then just the
basics the height, weight measurements, the RADS score. I'm trying
to put a totem in in that person's had who's
never seen that player before of of you know, expected
career progression, uh, and a guy that was similar the
(09:40):
size and the athleticism and hopefully playing style as well.
You can't always hit uh, you know, the all four
of those with one bullet.
Speaker 3 (09:47):
I try to be as realistic as.
Speaker 4 (09:49):
I can with those comps while keeping it trying to
have it so that audience members know who those players are.
When I'm when I'm ranking a guy as a UDFA,
I not only and I not rank him to a
Hall of Famer I can't rank him to a guy
who had a long successful career or any success really, right,
And so you're again you're trying to get it as
close to the career progression as possible, and I see
(10:11):
you as a UDFA. That's where it gets interesting for me.
The college football ciccos, Stucky and Wilson. You shouted them
out before. Guys like that you will appreciate down the
board my comps. I think you know college football cycles
might appreciate those the most. But I'm with you, guys,
I try to keep it within the fairway as far
as fair expectations with that. So I hope that criticism
(10:33):
that you guys have a comps in general, I hope
when you look through my board you feel like I've
addressed that.
Speaker 1 (10:39):
Do you have a That was such a respectful answer
when I'm trying to insult you first question off the bat.
I appreciate the respectful discourse. Give me an example of
a player comp that you've done in the recent past
or throughout the years you've been doing this. You were
(11:01):
in grade school and board that you're like, oh, I
nailed that. It was like a whatever the pick was,
whether it was a high pick and you got a
you you comped it to a really high level player
or a mid round pick or by the way u
dfa undrafted free agent. Like, give me an example of
a player comp that you nailed.
Speaker 4 (11:20):
I would say, and this wasn't even the best player
comp but uh, but it worked and it fits this situation.
I had Lamar Jackson as a top five overall player
in his class and I comped him the right handed
Michael Vick and it wasn't perfect to get. You know,
vic had more arm strength. There's slight there's slight differences
with them as as runners as well, and and Jackson
(11:42):
was more polished as a passer coming out. He played
at the ear Heart in the ear Heart Perkins system
for Bobby Patrino at Louisville. Earhart Perkins is what Bill
Parcells used the Giants their dynasty, and then Bill Belichick
with the Patriots. It's Earhart Perkins is the offense that
Tom Brady ran. But there was enough similarities there and
a very unique player coming into the league. We hadn't
(12:02):
seen many guys like Lamar Jackson, so that was I
guess that would be probably be one of my pet
favorite ones. What about your worst that same class at
rank Josh Rosen first overall, So I can't really come on, yeah,
I'll take my flowers for Jackson one of my best
calls with the draft, and then but then four slots
ahead of it, I made one of my worst. So yeah,
(12:25):
you know, you make five hundred predictions on out comes
that haven't occurred yet, which is what a five hundred
prospect draft board is. You're gonna be wrong a whole
onch each year. You're just trying to be right more
than wrong. Chad is very much like sports betting, you know.
I mean that's you cannot get one hundred percent of
your bets right, you can, It's hard to even get
to sixty five or close to that, right, You're trying
(12:46):
to break the what is it, fifty one and a
half percent where you beat the big any anywhere in there, right,
Like we're trying to get fifty five, fifty six, fifty
eight percent season over the whole course of it.
Speaker 3 (12:59):
With the value it's closer to that.
Speaker 4 (13:01):
You're just trying to juice your odds at the margins
and then just push it a little bit higher than
your your colleagues are.
Speaker 3 (13:06):
In that case, the books.
Speaker 1 (13:08):
Here's what I love. Your big your latest big board.
You got Travis Enter Hunter number one overall and the
comp shohey Otani. I think is great and super creative
and brilliant. But if someone is looking at this at
(13:28):
fantasy life, how do you justify it and explain it
so they take it seriously that you're not just sort
of saying, all right, here's a great all around two
way player and there's no comp in football, So you
got to go with the comp in baseball? How do
you how do you put it in context for football?
Speaker 3 (13:49):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (13:49):
So with comms, the thing that I don't like is
doing like or Man's blank, a rich Man's blank, or
this guy with you know, I like to just have
it be the name when I can. And so what
I started with Hunter is like, Okay, which individuals could
I comp them to? And that's a very short list
that you even theoretically could, right, Deon Sanders, maybe Champ Bailey,
(14:10):
maybe Charles Woodson. Maybe none of them really fit though,
And so then it was like, all right, I'm you know,
scrap dat, I'll go wide receiver Travis Hunter, Odell Beckham
feel good about that cornerback and you know then I
was thinking through it, and then it's like, this is
getting too convoluted. We've never seen something like Travis Hunter before.
(14:30):
We just call him shoey Otani because it's the same
sort of a thing.
Speaker 3 (14:34):
It puts.
Speaker 4 (14:34):
It puts the more accurate totem in the reader's brain
of this is a two way guy that is unprecedented
for the sport.
Speaker 3 (14:41):
And so is it a little bit silly? Yeah?
Speaker 4 (14:43):
Is it the first time that I on my five
hundred board that I have someone commed to a professional
baseball player?
Speaker 3 (14:47):
Yeah, but this is.
Speaker 4 (14:48):
A unicorn, you know, And I found it funny, and
I've been calling him show hey, all process and a
unicorn all process, and some of it is silly. But
then Andrew Barry last week Cleveland Brown's GM goes up
there at his press conference and repeated refers to Travis
Hunter at shoheo tawani and a unicorn. So you know
it's I think they found what I found, which is
I'm not saying he copied me. I think he went
(15:09):
along the same process of there's not a guy in
NFL history that one to one I can comp this
guy too.
Speaker 1 (15:15):
Listen, you got to start taking some Matthew Berry lessons
about marketing. He copied you read your stuff. He loved it.
He's like this guy Thor I'm with him. He's got
the power of the hammer, and I believe this is
the absolute right comparison.
Speaker 3 (15:32):
So just to own it, we're gonna go with that.
I accept that interpretation.
Speaker 1 (15:36):
Tell Barry, I gave you that idea.
Speaker 3 (15:38):
Done, okay.
Speaker 2 (15:39):
Yeah, So looking at your big board here, it is
pretty interesting that you know, you, as a lot of
other rankers have Sanders ahead of cam Ward and you know,
I've seen mel Kiper he's been talking about think Joe
Klatt even talked about having Sators above him. What's your
explanation for that? Is it just you you like Sanders
game to transition better in the NFL, or you just
(16:00):
don't like Ward's game compared to Sanders game.
Speaker 4 (16:03):
Yeah, they're one spot a part of my big board
eight and nine. I do have Sanders eight and Sanders
was my bell to bell quarterback one. I do like
him a little bit more and like him a little
bit more in the translation to the NFL Shoulder, Sanders
elite accuracy, elite placement, could put that ball wherever he wants.
It consistently leads guys into space, does cool things with
the ball, shading it away from defenders, giving his receiver
(16:24):
the best of it. That thing of facilitating the yak
yardage with leading the receiver into space. The other thing
with that is he does not turn the ball over,
So it's it's it's. Those two skills absolutely will translate
to the NFL. The chain mover guy the elite accuracy
and is going to take care of the ball for you,
whereas with just super steady Eddie should hear Sanders, whereas
(16:47):
with Cam moored you get more of the roller coaster ride.
Speaker 3 (16:50):
Cam Word for.
Speaker 4 (16:51):
Sure has the better arm, no question about it, and
it leads to more explosive plays that you know, but
that comes in conjunction with an elevated turnover rate. Last year,
Cam woard three times Shudier Sanders' turnover worthy play rate.
And the way that I see this, my supposition is
that you cannot lower the turnover worthy play rate and
(17:12):
what you see with Cam ord with that without doing
so in kind to his explosive play rate.
Speaker 3 (17:17):
This is the Brett fav corollary.
Speaker 4 (17:19):
You can't make him be more conservative without again in
kind lowering the explosive plays. To get access to all
those explosive plays, you have to live.
Speaker 3 (17:29):
With the turnovers. So Cam Woard's team, you are going
to experience more of the up and down.
Speaker 4 (17:34):
There's there's gonna be game flipping plays where he makes
it throw that you that you haven't seen a while
and it's gonna lead to an explosive play. There's also
going to be times where people are putting their heads
through walls because he threw an interception to flipped the
game late. So I mean you're gonna have to live
with some of that kind of stuff. I do like
the ceiling on that player, but I think there's always
going to be the elevated turnover rate within his game.
Speaker 1 (17:56):
Have you interesting?
Speaker 3 (17:57):
I got so?
Speaker 4 (17:58):
Have you?
Speaker 2 (17:58):
Or would you take a position on his over under
of eight and a half. It's up to plus two
eighty five plus three hundred a lot of books. So
do you think he's gonna go under that or do
you think he's going over eight and a half? Pick
plus two eighty five is the over under plus two
eighty five?
Speaker 1 (18:13):
Oh?
Speaker 4 (18:13):
I would nibble on that for sure. I don't think
that's a fixed outcome. I mean the Giants. Why would
their ownership ship group have gone to Shudeer Sanders' last
private workout, including with their coaching staff, if they weren't interested. Definitely,
not saying the Giants will take him, but I think
it's it's you know, the two outcomes before that I
think are fixed cam Or one Travis Hunter two. I
(18:34):
think the Giants pick it's like eighty five percent Abdul Carter,
but I do think you have to put fifteen percent
on Setier saying something like that, just because of the
presence of that. And then I also think, you know,
you look at some of the slots, you know in
between there's a possibility not only for trades, but you know,
you could see Shudeer Sanders go before that. It'll be
(18:54):
interesting to see what the Saints and the nine slot.
Obviously that number is nodding to that. Do the Saints gets.
Are the Saints in on Shudeer Sanders. We'll see on that,
and then did they get skittish if they are teams
trying to move hop them? So I but at those
odds nearly three to one, I would nibble on the under.
Speaker 1 (19:14):
Here's what's interesting to me. You've got should or Sanders comp.
If we're going to go into the comps and now
I love them, it's Baker Mayfield Ward is Jordan Love.
The way you described cam Ward and the high turnover
probability and the difficulty in taking that down, that to
(19:36):
me feels more like Baker Mayfield than Jordan Love. I thought,
you know, last year could be an anomaly with Jordan Love
because he was injured for much of the year. So
why the Jordan Love comp for Baker may for cam
Ward when Baker Mayfield is usually the guy who is
more prone to turnovers. And the kind of play I
(20:00):
think you've just described is akin to the way Kim
Ward plays.
Speaker 4 (20:05):
Yeah, as you guys know, like prospects, when they get
into the NFL, this circumstance and the situation that they're
in can obviously heavily influence them. It can make or
break them, and it can also change somewhat their tendency
as players, you know, through this scheme and through the
culture and whatnot. When Jordan Love came out of Utah State,
I believe his last season there it was twelve to
(20:26):
fourteen interceptions. It was like he threw a bunch of interceptions,
but you had the really cool stuff with the side arm,
the slots getting the ball out quickly, had all the
arm talent in the world, and he got his multiple
years sitting in the NFL trying to work through some
of that stuff waiting his turn and the Green Bay
Packers system. Now there has been some inoculation of that,
(20:48):
but he has obviously improved with that with that comp
I am nodding back to Jordan Love coming out of
Utah State with Kim Moore, you know, the similar things
You're going to have to work on there, you know.
But again, I think that turnover worthy rate's going to
stay high. But I just think the prospect of Cammore
coming out of Miami is very similar to what we
(21:09):
saw with Jordan Love coming out of Utah State.
Speaker 1 (21:12):
Simon, right now, if you had to make a bet,
would you rather bet on Baker Mayfield or would you
rather bet on Jordan Love as a quarterback? Who are
you more comfortable betting on?
Speaker 3 (21:26):
We?
Speaker 2 (21:26):
We all I know here on this show chat, we're
a Baker show.
Speaker 1 (21:28):
I was going to say to me, it's Baker. I'm
not sure I'm betting on Jordan Love without Matt Lafleur.
But I just think that's an interesting comp I like
what Thor did here because you guys know, you guys
know how much I love the comps. And now I'm
all in, and so I do not have to be
intractable when it comes to my positions and opinions. Going
(21:51):
back Thor till last year, even before JJ McCarthy was
drafted by Minnesota, you were all over McCarthy, one of
his loudest, most public advocates. Explain what brought you to
that conclusion? Do you still feel that way with him
(22:12):
coming off the injury?
Speaker 4 (22:14):
For sure, I do it to the latter and to
the former. People are just missing it with him early
in the process. I gotta, you know, watch all the
Michigan games live down the stretch. When they won the
national title, they faced the procession of just killer defense,
as that's what a top ten pick looks like, beating
the Iowa's, the Penn States, the Ohio States, you know,
and then getting into the playoff. Like I said, it
was just sort of a murders row of defense, as
(22:36):
culminating in the Semis against Nick Saban's Alabama Crimson tied
out a nasty defense and Michigan doesn't roar back without
JJ McCarthy to advance the national title, and obviously they
whipped Washington once they got there.
Speaker 3 (22:47):
But McCarthy elite athlete. He had a tight.
Speaker 4 (22:50):
Hamstring at the Combine last year, he still ran the
six fastest three cone of anyone at any position. He
didn't do the runs there because of that hamstring. But
at Michigan they said his last own tests were high
four to fours. Kevin O'Connell said that he would be
low four five's. But however, you want to see that.
You see the mobility on the field, he makes people miss.
Speaker 3 (23:09):
One of the.
Speaker 4 (23:09):
Better on the run throwers that you will see. He
keeps his mechanics with him no matter what when he
is moving behind the line of scrimmage, so he can
access all three sectors of the field, and he keeps
his eyes down field, so you'll see some really cool
stuff with him creating out of structure in structure. He
was his wild stallion, sort of a Prospect five star
when he went to Michigan, and then he played in
(23:31):
the pro style offense for Jim Harbo, the twelve personnel
pro style offense that is very earily similar to what
Kevin O'Connell runs. But in that system you had to
learn to play within structure, right, So it's this potential
out of structure virtue also of a prospect that was
broken to play in that, you know, within the concepts
of that pro style system. And by the end of
(23:52):
his career, the third season before his twenty first birthday,
on the season where they ended up winning the national title,
he was the best thrower of the ball intermediate between
the hashes in the country. He was also the best
quarterback in the country on all the high leverage throws.
He cut the numbers third and medium, third and long,
all those sorts of things. He had, you know, a
good sample of those throws, and he was the most
(24:14):
efficient and the best in the class, and by the way,
against by far the hardest strength of schedule of any
of those six top quarterbacks and in the highest leverage spots.
Of course, they made that run to the national title.
People are like, oh, JJ, he was supported by his
supporting cast and they were the ones that carried him there. Really,
when he got to Michigan, they were two and four.
The team was so bad that they were considering firing
(24:35):
Jim Harbor in fact, he had to go into the
university president's office and accept frustrate himself essentially and accept
a salary reduction in order to stay. JJ came in
the next recruiting class. They've made the playoffs three straight seasons,
obviously the last season with that national title.
Speaker 3 (24:52):
So this kid is ready to play.
Speaker 4 (24:54):
Jim harbaught that NFL coach that he played for, the
citing NFL head coach that he was the best prospect
in last year's class. I wasn't quite as high, so
I wasn't the highest guy on McCarthy. That definitely would
have been Jim. But I have McCarthy number three overall
on my board.
Speaker 1 (25:06):
Simon, before I know, you want to jump in with
a question. You're all over Michigan. You've got well Johnson
other than Travis Hunter being the top corner. You've got
their two defensive tackles very highly ranked. You love their
tight end. What is it about the Michigan program you've
(25:27):
seen in the years of doing this kind of coverage,
especially lately, that has helped them develop such high potential
draft picks.
Speaker 4 (25:38):
The development that Harbaugh does, he identifies the dudes obviously
their national recruiting brand, it was an NFL program, the
training program that they had there, it was NFL ask
and finding guys that can fit the system and then
sort of build them up. These guys that come out
of the Michigan program that Harbaugh had, Harbaugh brought in,
there's a lot of polish to those skill set and
(26:00):
they were playing four NFL coaches in NFL systems, which
obviously a poc NFL and now with that coaching staff
half of it or more. And also guys that were
in the pro that are not the the personnel department
for Michigan identifying the talent whatnot. A lot of those
guys are in the NFL now sort of spread around.
Some of them followed Jim. His son Jay is the
(26:22):
Seahawks Special Teams coordinator, Spy Tech is the Raiders GM.
They're all over the place. So you see that influence
as well. And then I mean, beyond that the other
hardbaughs that are in the NFL and then the branches
of those threes. So the intel is sort of all
out there on these polished prospects and makes for an
easier acclamation of the NFL.
Speaker 2 (26:42):
Yeah, last week, Chad, it was it was probably the
biggest ups that we had where I had so many
professionals better reach out to me about Todd mcshag like,
he came on here and said a lot and he
kept me busy all weekend. I basically my biggest position
at this point is Ashton genty being a top you know,
six and a half pick, so basically the odds. On
our show, Chad, he says he likes gent to be
(27:03):
a higher pick that people realize. And you know, he
gave up that Patriots nugget which was sixteen to one
when he said it is now down to six to one,
which is pretty insane. It was eight and a half
minus two hundred to go under eight and a half pick.
Now it's down to under six and a half minus
four fifty. So I took a large position. Shout out
(27:25):
to our guy, Todd McShay, I would love to know
your review. Thor On, is this news of this running
back moving up the top five reel? Are you seeing
guys mock him as the Patriots or the Jaguars or
is it just all a smoke screen and the Patriots
are going to pass on him, the Jags are gonna
pass on the Raiders will pass on him. I'm about
(27:45):
to lose a ton of money, is what is happening
right now? This running back and being a top five pick.
Speaker 3 (27:50):
Gensy for sure is in play for the top five
the end. The floor for him is six.
Speaker 4 (27:54):
Like if he gets there, the Raiders are going to
take him, and so that, you know, it becomes the
race with that that I as far as the Patriots
go with it. My take on the Patriots is it's
been sort of sneaky and sort of suspicious that it's
just like, oh, yeah, it's Will Campbell. That's another free
spot on the point. Why is why is it Will Campbell?
I don't think Will Campbell can play tackle in the NFL,
(28:15):
much less succeed at it. We don't have any data
for a guy whose arms are that short and wingspan
is that short, even hanging at tackle. So I think
that's an interior player. And then you know, you hear
when people are like, why you know, why do you
like Will Campbell so much? Oh, he's so great in interviews,
He's such a good guy. That doesn't justify the fourth pick.
If you were the Patriots and then people just assumed
you were going to take Will Campbell, would you tell
(28:37):
your media contacts, No, no, no, it's not gonna be Will Campbell.
It's going to be whether it's Gentee, whether it's you know,
whoever the real target is. Or would you just be like, yeah,
they're right, we're gonna take Will Campbell.
Speaker 2 (28:47):
Right, I'll just say, generally speaking, are there any bets
that you've made, Like, are there like draft markets you've
been attacking? Are you just being patient kind of seeing
how this week's going to settle because people they think
it's gonna be really chalk. I don't know about you,
and I feel like those are the best years you
could take advantage where everyone thinks they know the first
four picks two weeks before the draft, Like that's what it.
Speaker 3 (29:08):
Feels like this year.
Speaker 2 (29:09):
Are there any markets you're attacking or are you just being patient?
Speaker 3 (29:12):
It's not gonna be shocked.
Speaker 4 (29:14):
We're gonna be in for a while night on Thursday.
The drafts where you can predict them easier, it's the
ones where I mean two things, you have more of
the top first round quarterbacks, right, because those guys become
free spots on the board. Last year we had the
six of them, we didn't know where all of them
were going. We knew where a few of them were
going in advance, not but you knew that they were
going to go fairly high. So you got some free
(29:36):
spots on the board there and then otherwise just elite
prospects at premium positions.
Speaker 3 (29:39):
We have less of those in this class.
Speaker 4 (29:41):
Right, The receiver class is way down to left tackle
class is way down and you know some of those
different premium positions. So because of that, we have less
predictability here, right. I know that, like I said, no,
the first two picks feel decent. Is ish about the
third one? After that, I think this thing is wide open.
I think you're going to see a lot of trades.
(30:02):
I think you're going to see unexpected guys fall and
then unexpected guys get pulled up, and I think that
that's going to lead to movement as well. But yeah,
I don't think that this is going to be predictable
at all the way that this class is constituted.
Speaker 1 (30:14):
Well, look, you just mentioned you've got a lot of
trades your do two round mock last week, including predictions
about how many quarterbacks go in the first round. You
know that number two and a half, three and a
half has been an active market. You mocked multiple trades.
So far there haven't been any, right, and so this
(30:35):
is the latest weep scene before the draft with zero movement.
Why do you feel so confident?
Speaker 4 (30:44):
Well, I think there's a wait and see element with
some of these NFL teams because of this sort of
uncertain paradigm that we find ourselves saying. You know that
that I was just sort of speaking to. And I
think because of that, you're actively monitoring the situations that
your designated position groups of your team needs. You're gonna
have to do that in the mom because what is
the scenario, right Like, this is like a it's like
a doctor strange draft, right Like, at once you get
(31:06):
to four, if that thing is different than Will Campbell,
it opens up all these realities that we didn't know before. Right,
and then the fifth pick ex right, I mean if Jens'
is not the fourth pick, but then he could absolutely
go five, and it absolutely could be via a trade.
These things are going to open up these again, these
possibilities we haven't seen before. And for teams, I think
(31:27):
that's what they're waiting for. Is there a scenario where
let's say it's a wide receiver needy team in the twenties.
Is there a shot that Tedroll McMillan starts to fall
deeper than we think right, and we can get access
to him. Maybe he doesn't fall the way to us,
but maybe that we can make a small move up
the board for him. I think that's what it is.
I think this sets up for more trades during the draft.
(31:47):
But because the environment that we're in not pre draft
like the one with the Vikings and the Texans last
year that was like a month or six weeks before
the draft, where the Vikings were able to get the
other first round pick, right, they were able to package
you know, some of that in order to do that.
They were doing that because the quarterback environment, right, they
wanted the second bullet to potentially be able to trade up.
(32:10):
They just didn't want to be boxed out of those
top quarterbacks. And you know, of course the Bears with
the Panthers was a year before that, that big trade,
the Bryce Young one that was done in advance because
of the quarterback. A lot of times it's the really
strong quarterback classes that lead to the trades in.
Speaker 3 (32:25):
Advance of it. But yeah, the quarterback class down this year.
Speaker 1 (32:29):
So speaking of quarterbacks in your mock, you had three
qbs in the first round. Tell everybody who those qbs are,
and I would assume that means, depending on the market,
you're going to be betting over two and a half
or under three and a half quarterbacks in the first round.
But explain your positioning on quarterbacks right now.
Speaker 3 (32:51):
Yeah, I had Dirt going twenty one to the Steelers,
and so like, you know, you look ten days or
you know, two weeks ago, you know, in advance of that,
I would have I would have said under two and
a half quarterbacks. But the way that this steam has
gone and the new and whatnot, I'm going over that
for sure.
Speaker 4 (33:09):
And that you know, the three and a half market,
the adjusted one, you know, I would potentially be interested
in that, depending on the price of going over that too.
Guyse Jackson Dart looks like he has a decent shot
to go in the first round. I think the Steelers
are the fit that makes the most sense. Obviously obviously
have a need there. And then an Arthur Smith's offense.
You have a lot of the play action concepts throwing deep.
(33:30):
Jackson Dart did a lot of that, the mobility as
well that Arthur Smith likes Jackson Dart has that as well.
And then the Jalen Milroe is the other guy. Jalen
Milroe sort of the mystery guy there who's lurking. Opened
up a lot of eyes when the NFL invited Jalen
Milroe to the NFL Draft. The NFL does not make
a lot of mistakes with their invites, and so that
was tipping off and telegraphing to you that Jalen Milroe
(33:52):
is going to go not only higher than the media
had assumed, but that he has a real shot to
get into the first round. And I think this scenario
that makes all the sense in the world. There is
the Cleveland Browns trading up from thirty three a couple
spots and taking Jalen Milroe at the end of the
first round. Cleveland Browns is offensive coordinator. Tommy Reese was
the offensive coordinator at Alabama in twenty twenty three when
(34:13):
Jalen Milroe down the stretch there looked like a future
number one overall pick. It wasn't until last year. Down
the stretch through the end of September, jala Melroe still
looked like a future number one overall pick. He shredded
Georgia's defense like you never see a quarterback shred a
Kirby smart defense. At the end of September. It devolved
from there though, down the stretch and Doub's where the
(34:33):
push and pull came. With Kayalin Debor trying to get
Jaln Milroe shoved the square peg into the round hole
of his passing offense. The boar did not want Milroe
to leave the pocket. Wanted to pin him in there
on the passing concepts and get the ball out. And
with Jalen Milroe, you have to let him off the
leash to give him the freedom to be able to
run as well when he doesn't see it. Tommy Reese
knows how to construct an offense around him. That's what
(34:55):
Andrew Berry was talking about last week at his press conference.
So I think that would be the fourth one there.
Speaker 2 (35:00):
And you talked about how this draft, I mean a
lot of people have that. It's just really solid throughout right.
It's not so much you know, blue Chippers top heavy,
but you know you can get a great pick at
you know, pick forty five is the same pick as
someone's taken apparently at twelve or thirteen. Like that's how
deep people think these d lines. Are you know the dns?
I'm interesting, Do you have anyone because I've talked a
(35:22):
lot of pros they have guys like you know, Jack Sawyer,
who's eighteen to one now to be our first rounder.
Do you have anyone like that you could see sneaking
into the first round that has crazy long shot value?
Right now where it's such a draft of randomness, is
there someone that really jumps out.
Speaker 3 (35:35):
To you as far?
Speaker 4 (35:37):
I would have to have the odds board in front
of me, but there there are a couple guys that I.
Speaker 3 (35:41):
Take a shot on it, just like popularly, maybe aren't.
Speaker 4 (35:46):
The longest shot would be probably I don't know what
Benjamin Morrison's odds are, but as a mystery box, whatever
the odds are, it'd probably be worth like what do
you call pizza money bet because we don't know what
the reports on the hips were. Right on Benjamin Morrison's hip,
that's a guy who would have been an all day
first round pick had he not gotten injured. He had
(36:06):
the hip injury that is scary, absolutely, But if he
gets enough clearance from the medical stats in the NFL,
he becomes in play for the first round. So you know,
just on that Chevon Ravel would be another guy. The
cornerback class drops off pretty quick. But those two injured guys,
they're both first round guys. Just depending on what the
medical teams have said, those will probably be two long
(36:28):
shots for me. I wouldn't do any receivers. I'm actually
I like the Juice Todds on the under two and
a half receivers in the first round. You're gonna see McMillan,
you're gonna see Golden. I think there's there's a lot
of scenarios where we're both like Buka and Burden fall
to the second round to open that thing up, and
I think that think's closer to a coin flip as
(36:49):
far as probabilities go than the two to one near
two to one is suggesting with that.
Speaker 3 (36:54):
But yeah, that's that's how I go with that.
Speaker 2 (36:56):
I'll give people the real quick Chavon three to one
Benjamin one, so pretty good odds if you're going to
take some long shots on that.
Speaker 1 (37:03):
Yeah, Yeah, tend to one feels like really good number
for jumping in. Based on Thor's evaluation, Simon, I think
Thor just came on the favorites and he freaking dominated.
He was ready with every comp he was ready to
combat my idiotic ideas. He was more thorough than the
(37:26):
full wall of helmets that he spent about eighty thousand
dollars on that are pegged to his wall right now.
Thorn Eistrom Fantasy Life. Matthew Friedman is right. You crush
this great job.
Speaker 3 (37:42):
Appreciate it. Thank you so much, Chad awesome.
Speaker 1 (37:44):
For doing it. Really fanantastic listen. The Favorites is presented
by bet three six five. Sign up using promo code Favorites,
deposit ten dollars, place a bet for five dollars to
get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those
bonus bets can be used on spreads, total player props,
(38:04):
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(38:26):
and I will return with our next episode of The
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Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods,
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(38:50):
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