The Favorites - Super Bowl LIX Prop Bets

The popularity of Super Bowl props and exotics has exploded in recent seasons. To dive into the tens of thousands of available bets and select some of their favorites, Action Network NFL experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter welcome two of the best NFL player projectionists in the business: their colleagues Chris Raybon and Sean Koerner. Together this foursome goes through the best markets and juiciest prices at bet365, ahead of Chris and Sean's Super Bowl Prop-A-Palooza live show at 6pm ET on Wednesday, only on the Action Network YouTube channel. So listen closely and tail along! #Volume #herd

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.

Speaker 2 (00:15):
Oh.

Speaker 1 (00:15):
I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today is
our Tuesday Super Bowl fifty nine Props episode. We are
welcoming in our very special Action Network colleagues. Two of
the best in the business might be the best in
the business prop betting experts, Chris Raybon and Sean Kerner.

(00:36):
They are two of Fantasy Pros top ranked NFL player projectionists.
You can hear them every week on the must listen
Fantasy Flex Podcast. They'll give out some of their favorite
super Bowl props with us today. After Shawn and Chris,
producer Matt Mitchell is going to go through the best

(00:56):
submissions from our BET three six ' five super Bowl
prop contest. At the very end, Well announced the contest
winner and have that person join the show. As a reminder,
Sharp calls, Big Balls, Biggest Bets, Scoot Roulette. All gonna
come on Thursday, our final episode before the super Bowl.

(01:20):
Very exciting week, Plenty of stuff to discuss live remember
Tommy John Holmes Studios. I'm joined as always by my
co host, my companion, mikeem Bodre might BFF professional better signon,
Hunter at Olsall, I'm.

Speaker 3 (01:33):
In chad happy super Bowl Week, my man.

Speaker 1 (01:36):
We made it, brother, little melancholy. You know, we got
Raybon on today. You know I love listening not only
do the Fantasy Flex with him and Kerner, which I
listened to every week when I'm prepping for our show.
I also listened to the Action Network pod with Raybon
and Stuckey in the Sunday six Pack. And when I
listened to it this week, they had the show post

(01:57):
last night and Raybon at the end was like, it's
our last show with the season. You know, six years,
Raybun and Stuck you have been doing that. I love
the six Pack, And I was a little bit a
little bit sad, little bit teary eyed that we're coming
down to our last two episodes before the super Bowl.

Speaker 3 (02:18):
Yeah, it's sad that it's over, but I mean that's
how we we'd love and appreciate the season. Brother, It's
got to end so we can enjoy what it starts
up again next year. That's just part of life.

Speaker 1 (02:27):
Don't be sad that it's over, signon, Just be happy
that it's happened. As a reminder of the Favorites podcast
is presented by Bet three sixty five and now new
Bet three sixty five. Customers get one hundred and fifty
dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars. Sound
up using promo code Favorites deposit ten dollars. Place a
bet for five dollars to get one hundred and fifty

(02:48):
dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used
on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment,
it's never ordinary. At Bet three six five. Must be
twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or eighteen and
older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler

(03:08):
or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditioned
restrictions apply. Mister Sean Kerner, mister Chris Raybon, both of
you dressed in eagles gear, which worries me a little
bit as someone along with Simon who on the two
episodes last week, it often described how into the chiefs

(03:33):
we were, and Raybon I'm going to ask you specifically
about your side later in the show. Just explain to
me and to Simon and to those watching on YouTube. Cerner,
why are in your Eagle's hat which always makes me nervous.

Speaker 4 (03:50):
Yeah, don't get nervous, Chad. It's not that big of
a deal. I would say all three of my props
involve Eagles players in some way, shape or form. Last week,
most props involved Chiefs players, so I was wearing a
Chiefs hat. So that's that's why I'm rocking the Eagles
hat today.

Speaker 1 (04:07):
Got it, all right? Raybon? Give me the reason for
your Eagles gear. You'r Randall Cunningham throwback jersey.

Speaker 5 (04:14):
During COVID, I had a lot of disposable income. I
didn't know what to do with it, so I bought
a bunch of jerseys, and really, this is the only
time I can wear them.

Speaker 1 (04:23):
All right, We're gonna get to it then, h Curner
and Raybon last week did the first version of their
Propapalooza pod. They will do the second one on Wednesday.
On last week's version, Remind me if I'm wrong, or

(04:44):
correct me if I'm wrong. Kerner's prop, one of them
was Drew Tranquil under seven and a half tackles. It's
currently minus one sixty. Also, there was violence inflicted upon me.
I mean, who wants who wants to own it?

Speaker 5 (05:00):
Raybon Hey, I you know Sean was explaining who Drew
Tranquil was and I just said, I'm not Chad Milman.
I know who Drew Tranquil is. This is not convinced me.

Speaker 1 (05:12):
For the record. For the record, I'm fully aware of
most starters on NFL teams. But it's when you bring
out your fucking let's go bet John Beck under a reception,
don't don't traumatic traumatic.

Speaker 4 (05:29):
Experience, John Bates. It's bas there you go, Andrew Beck.
Andrew Beck is the other.

Speaker 1 (05:35):
That's what I mean. When you're bringing outt fourasting receivers
that don't even average a catch a game, that's when
I might not get it. Okay, So kra like Drew Trankwell,
Raybund liked under eight and a half total pass catchers
for Kansas City. I think Raybond like no miskicks up
to plus one seventy five. Crder liked most tackles and

(05:57):
assists is a long shot. Oorn Burks plus three twenty
am I missing anything from that one Fellas.

Speaker 5 (06:06):
Yep, so long ago. They'll do the last week props.

Speaker 6 (06:11):
Bro let's got on there. We got we got some
new ones for you Chad today.

Speaker 1 (06:15):
I know this week. This week you each have three
brand new props for me and Simon, some of which
I imagine is previewing prop a pal loser. Maybe these
are all special ones. Raybon, kick us off, give us
your current best prop.

Speaker 5 (06:31):
All right, well, I'm not gonna kick us off, but
we're gonna go with field goals over one and a
half for Kansas City at minus one twenty five. I
would bet this up to about minus one fifty. So
I think that the Chiefs are going to struggle in
a red zone. That's kind of what's been the history
of Patrick Mahomes going up against Vic Fangio defenses. He's
been able to move the ball, but really struggled in

(06:54):
the red zone in Kansas City this year, just number
twenty six and fourth down attempts and they've only gone
for it twice all year on more than fourth and
one with Mahomes starting. So Andy Reid will take the
points here. Harrison Bucker fifteen to fifteen. The last two postseasons,
Eagles have allowed multiple field goal attempts in all three

(07:16):
playoff games, the Chiefs have made two or more and
eleven of eighteen Mahome starts two or more in seven
of eight against Fangio defenses with Mahomes and six of
eight playoff games over the last two postseasons. So I
think there's a high likelihood that you get at least
two Harrison Butner field goals. I don't even mind laddering

(07:37):
you know, three four as well, because I do think
that the Eagles are going to be able to get
some stops down in the red area.

Speaker 1 (07:45):
Seven. You got any thoughts on that.

Speaker 3 (07:48):
I mean, I hope he's right. I was gonna say
we're heavy. I'm heavy on the under so that would
be pretty nice for me. And I totally agree that,
you know, the few defenses that give the issues. I mean,
even this season, though we've seen their numbers, it was,
what but they round twenty second this year, Chris and
the red zone efficiency like exactly twenty. Yeah, this season,
they've already struggled with it. So I think it adds

(08:09):
to it the fact that you know they've struggled against
the defense and their kicker. Before his injury, he was automatic.
Even since he's been back, he's been pretty good. And
then the fact that they're in a dome, it only
adds to me, like in these kicker props even more.

Speaker 1 (08:21):
Yeah, look, we love the kicker props. We love when
Sean and Raybon talk about the kicker prop. So I'm
glad Raybon is euphemistically kicking it off with a Kicker
prop because I was going to ask them if they
were any up that they liked. So that's good, Kerner.
Give me your Eagles prop.

Speaker 4 (08:40):
Well, I'm three of them. But the first one is
it's definitely a juicy one. It's Saquon Barkley to have
the most rushing attempts in the game at minus three
point fifty. This is one I would kind of bet
Tenny juice. But you know, Barkley's a massive favorite in
this market, rightfully so, but the press should be a
lot higher. I mean, his rush tent prop is around

(09:01):
twenty one and a half right now. The next closest
is cream Hunt at eleven and a half. Then you
have Jalen Hurts at nine and a half. Mahomes and
Pacheco are both around six unlike yards, where you know,
any given play a player can pop off for fifty
plus yards. It's a wide range of outcomes. You know,
a player can only get one rush attempt on any
given play, So the distribution of these props as much tighter.

(09:25):
So in my assimulation, I'm showing like a ninety six
percent chance he has the most rush attempts. But then
you have to factor in, you know, the chances of
him getting injured. He would have to get injured before
getting like fifteen rush attempts. If he has fifteen rush
attempts and he gets nucked out of the game, he'll
probably still take down this market. Or like the ideal

(09:46):
game script where the Chiefs get up early to a
big lead early Kareem Hunt ends up, you know, rushing
the ball twenty plus times, Eagles have to get in
a pass out of game script. Factoring all that in,
I'd say a very conservative project be about eighty five percent,
so like minus five sixty for Barkley to lead the

(10:06):
game in rush attempts. So I think even though it's
juicy and pricey at minus three fifty, I still think
there's some value.

Speaker 1 (10:13):
Here that one doesn't correlate exactly to what I would
like to happen in the game. But it's interesting. Yeah,
it's true. I mean it's interesting the delta. I know,
you know Raybon and Stuckey Raybon jump in here because
I know you and Stuck talked a little bit about

(10:33):
Saquon's rushing total prop. And this market was so inflated
before the NFC title game opened up, I think a
little bit more reasonably for the Super Bowl, but has
still been coming down. Do you have any thoughts on
his rushing total yardage prop?

Speaker 3 (10:56):
Yeah?

Speaker 5 (10:57):
So I think it's still about five yards too high,
which you can expect that in a game like this.
But one thing that's interesting it kind of goes with
what Seawn is saying, is that Sequon Barkley's been busting
off these exposive plays almost every game. If he doesn't,
they're inversely correlated his yardage and his attempts, right, because

(11:17):
if he doesn't bust off a seventy yard or on
one carry, he might need you know, eight carries, ten carries,
you know, a whole drive worth of carries, whatever that
may be, to get that same amount of yards multiple drives.
Even so, that's how you kind of have to think
about the attempt So just if you want to fade
Saquon Barkley or back Saquon Barkley, it's not as simple
as just going like over attempts over yards. I think

(11:40):
attempts would indicate he's probably struggling a little more than
just necessarily. Okay, the Eagles are in a positive game
scrip like they're gonna run the ball no matter what,
like up down, They'll run the ball as long as
they can, especially now, So I think you know, that's
something to keep in mind, is that his yardage is
gonna be a little inversely correlated with the attempts.

Speaker 1 (12:02):
He also does tend to disappear sometimes there are there
are parts of the game where either there they've got
gain well in there for extended looks, or he just
sort of is one yard two yard, one yard, two
yard and then he breaks Yeah, how did he not?

Speaker 5 (12:19):
Like he didn't even clear his his yardage prop last
in the championship game in the first run he got
like sixty sixty seventy yards, So yeah, that that kind of.

Speaker 4 (12:27):
Well, he was dealing with that calf injury right like
he was out of the game.

Speaker 5 (12:31):
He did Yeah, yeah.

Speaker 4 (12:33):
I think if if he was healthy, I don't think
Gainwell plays more than just a handful of snaps. I
think that had to do with Barkley just like actually
being injured.

Speaker 5 (12:42):
Yeah, but I mean he's also when you guys get
to that volume level, like you almost gotta project like
a half a carrier carry for the backup, just because
it's so hard to stay healthy for that many snaps.
Like we've seen Barkley. We have a few games now
where they're giving him like all the carry. I think
even in the Week one he had he missed a
couple of players, but it's happened a few times. But yeah,
I agree. I don't think Gang Will get much time.

(13:03):
Maybe some third down pass blocking stuff.

Speaker 3 (13:06):
Yeah, I think people just got unlucky. Right, this guy
had fifteen carries and it was in a blowout, and basically, Sirianni,
he's just been talking about saving him for this exact game.
So this game, I can't see him saving for anything, right,
There's no It's the offseason, so to me, I'd be
shocked to game Will getting many touches. What's your next prop, Chris?

Speaker 5 (13:24):
All Right, So, speaking of which, I'm going with both
teams combined rushing yardage under two hundred and eighty five
and a half. You can get that at minus one
fifteen at bet three six five. I think this is
way too high. I have these teams projected to combine
for just under two hundred and sixty total rushing yards.
So Number one Kansas City. They've been struggling to run

(13:48):
the ball since they moved Joe Tony to left tackle
from guard. Ninety nine carries for the running backs three
point five to seven yards per carry since they made
that moves. And this is a top two run defense
in Philadelphia. On the other side, we've heard it all,
you know, all week. Kansas City, they haven't allowed one
hundred yard rusher. Now, I think they've had a very
easy schedule of opposing run offenses, has the Chiefs. But

(14:11):
I still think they're a good run defense because of
Steve Spagnol. Remember last two Super Bowls against Philly a
couple of years ago, they had a top five running offense.
He held them to three point six yards of carry
on thirty two carries. San Francisco comes in last year
top three rushing offense. Christian McCaffrey. How are we going
to stop them? Kansas City's one of the worst run defenses,

(14:32):
number twenty seven. They hold him to thirty one for
one to ten. The Niners total for the game just
three point five five yards per carry. So Spagnol's gonna
kind of he's gonna kind of switch into front's weight
in the down and kind of confuse them that way,
and you know, make Jalen Hurts make some checks and
things like that, so they'll find a way to slow
them slow Barkley down. I don't think he'll hop off

(14:55):
quite as much as he has the last couple of games.
And if you just look at the numbers philadelph you
combined rushing yards over this number in twelve or nineteen,
but Kansas City games hasn't happened all year. So you
look at the two teams combined, that's just twelve of
thirty eight, just thirty two percent. So and that's you know,
that's kind of what you're expecting here, which is why
I think this market is massively inflated, as you will

(15:18):
see for most of just offensive numbers to deal with
yardage and touchdowns. But yeah, I think this is about
twenty five yards too high, so it can be combining
rushing yards under two hundred and eighty five and a
half for both teams rushing that.

Speaker 1 (15:31):
Does feel insanely high, going completely against expectation for the Chiefs,
who the last what three or four games we've seen
since Isaiah Picheco came back, He's not being used in
the same way. He's not getting as many carries. It's
really much more about Kareem Hunt. Kareem Hunt banging it
up the middle. Kareem Hunt five six, seven, eight yards

(15:53):
at the most, except when you know we have under
ten and a half yards for his longest carry. Oh
does that you know once in a four game span.
It just happens to be the game that we bet it.
But generally like this is not a big rushing team.
And with Joe Toney at left tackle, like Caliendo has
not been the same player.

Speaker 5 (16:15):
Oh he's been terrible. Rights, So they both have like
they would both rank like bottom five. You know if
they had their PFF run blocking grade over the full year.
Since Tooney went to tackle and kali Endo went to guard,
it essentially made their run blocking worse at both spots.

Speaker 1 (16:31):
So yeah, right, the only difference is now maybe my
Holmes is a little bit more protected at left tackle.

Speaker 5 (16:40):
Yeah, but he also has like these negative ten yard
kneel downs that Sean knows very well. So, uh, that's
another way that you could like get like an out
to get under this number, even if you're kind of
sweating it, you know, maybe it's hanging around that to
eighty mark. You know, if Mahomes does to take some
kneel downs, you're you're you're definitely going backwards.

Speaker 3 (16:57):
Also, you even talk about, I mean these both these
teams bleed clock. So even if the run game is
not working, both teams will still run it. That's who
they are in the second half. So that's even better
where you know, it could be a lot of thirty
and eight thirty sevens that they ran a two times
and the both teams won't care if they pick of
the first town, they'll probably run it twice again if
either team has a lead, Like they just both teams
their scripts all season have been leaning on the run

(17:20):
heavy in the second half. It just bleeds clock. So
like you said, even if both teams aren't successful, they're
still going to keep doing it and still keep eating
away at that clock, which plays even more to this
prop going under.

Speaker 1 (17:29):
It's a really good point. Curner fire away.

Speaker 6 (17:34):
All right.

Speaker 4 (17:34):
Well, you know I already gave out a minus three
point fifty props, So let's go with a long shot here,
let's go. The first sack of the game is going
to go to Nolan Smith at sixteen to one. You know,
Smith was their first round pick last year, didn't do
much as a rookie, but he's really started to break

(17:56):
out over the final few weeks of the season and
ended the playoff. He actually leads the Eagles in pressures
since week fifteen with twenty three. He now is a
sack in each three rounds of the playoffs so far.
So if he gets a sack in the Super Bowl,
he'll be the first player ever to have a sack
in four playoff games.

Speaker 6 (18:15):
So he's just on fire right now.

Speaker 4 (18:16):
He might be going up against you know, right tackle
Jwon Taylor for most of the game, who's allowed a
team high forty one pressures.

Speaker 6 (18:23):
So I love the matchup. You know, love is upside here.

Speaker 4 (18:26):
He actually has my He's tied for the second highest
sack projection in this game. So you know, I show
a fair price for the first sack closer to plus
eight point fifty and we're getting sixteen to one on this.
This is offering too much value. It's also a fun
sweat too. I mean, who knows him the first sack
is going to be. But this is the market I
haven't bet on before. I haven't even seen a price
for this yet. But yeah, sixteen to one Nolan Smith

(18:49):
signed yep for that.

Speaker 1 (18:51):
That does seem like fun. But as soon as you
wrote it down, I'm like, that's every single time Kansas
City drops back, there's going to be a super, super
exciting sweat happening with Nolan Smith. Evan is reporting that
this is what five to one.

Speaker 3 (19:12):
I got it? Okay, no, no, no, he's saying this
is basically five to one every book and the one
Shawn's giving out. Go get it at bedt through six
five because it's insanely great value.

Speaker 1 (19:22):
Ah got it all right.

Speaker 3 (19:24):
And just to reiterate what he's saying, Nolan Smith has
already set the record for most sacks and Eagles history
in the playoffs. That's how impressive this kid has been.
He's gotten four sacks. Yeah, I know it's crazy, but
it was Brandon Graham at three and a half and
he just broke it by getting his fourth sack. So
when you really go through it, this kid every week,
like Shawn's breaking down, he's gotten better. This is the
type of game where they've been watching film on someone

(19:46):
for two weeks. They're gonna set them up, like they're
gonna know a move that's gonna work on this guy.
And like I like Sean saying, I love the those odds.
That's a great price for a guy to been waiting
two weeks. First, first drop back. He could set this
guy up for a little you know, knock his arms down, whatever,
swinging on them. Like, there's just a bunch of things
you go into when there's really good pass rushers against

(20:07):
subpar tackles. They know their weaknesses by this game, and
they know which is gonna work. So I love that value,
especially the fact that it's sixteen to one right now.
That's that's insanely high.

Speaker 1 (20:16):
Well, you know what's interesting about having the two weeks,
and I think this goes for all three of you,
really is it's no different than Andy Reid Spagnolo Fango.
You've got two weeks to game plan for your weaknesses
and to game plan for another team's strengths. Right, So

(20:39):
let's say Kerner or Raybon or Simon Kerner start with you.
Over these two weeks, how much do you have to
incorporate the idea that someone might be looking to defend
against a trend that you've been identifying that is on
thep swing?

Speaker 6 (20:58):
What do you mean exactly?

Speaker 1 (20:59):
So over let's say, like on a week to week basis, Yeah,
there's only so much game planning someone can do to
improve their weakness against a team's strength. But over two weeks,
there's a lot of time to try to figure out
what that answer is. Right, So you're basing this based
on models that are identifying what you think are opportunities

(21:22):
or deltas in numbers, whatever the case may be. But
coaches are probably looking at that and thinking, Okay, that's
a tendency we need to fix. So don't you have
to account for that when you're modeling.

Speaker 4 (21:34):
Yeah, for sure, And I think, like, you know, I'm
going to use math for you know, ninety nine percent
of the way to get there and then kind of
incorporate that. And it kind of goes back to what
we're saying with Saquon Barkley, Like, obviously the Chiefs are
going to have a couple weeks. The game plan like,
how do we slow down Saquon Barkley? And I think
they have the scheme and coaching staff to do that.
So I'm probably a little bit lower on Barkley than

(21:56):
most in the market kind of going with what you're
saying is like the extra planning, uh to you know,
slow down somebody that's been unstoppable like Barkley. I think
it's more likely to be able to do that with
the extra week for sure.

Speaker 5 (22:08):
Yeah, and Chad, I think what you're getting at is,
you know, stuck. You and I talked on the on
the pod about how a lot of times when you
have these pass thrushes and you know you're just gonna
get the ball out quick, and that's what's kind of
been happened with Mahomes and and and even Hurts, you know,
got the ball quicker in the championship. However, I like
Sean's bet because the Eagles are a lot more predictable

(22:29):
sack wise, pass rush wise, because Fangio already got burned
with the blitz. He's probably he usually does not blitz Mahomes.
It just doesn't really work, and so you're gonna have
you're not gonna get as many disguised pressures and guys
coming from every which way like you are with Spagnol,
who I think on the decisive play that Bills game,

(22:50):
I think he sent one of the corners. I think
he said it was either I think it was McDuffie
or somebody. So yeah, it's like that's with the Eagles.
You're not gonna get as much of that now. Of
course you could. It's the super Bowl to try to
break tendency, but they're gonna play it a lot more
straight up, just because they have that kind of talent
and you know, they've tried it the other way and
it hasn't really worked, so it's easy. I think it's
a little easier to bet their sacks and predict them

(23:12):
and model them than it is for the Chiefs.

Speaker 3 (23:14):
Also, sometimes there's nothing you can really do, Like these
teams are so great. There's such at high levels. Like
my favorite thing everyone was talking about GM, you know
years ago after Mahomes came to the league and he
was like, yeah, well, guys know the books out on
him force them to his left right, so overload the
right side. And obviously Andy Reid they knew that the Chiefs.
He came in next year, he was perfect going to
his left, So now teams only do that anymore. Right,

(23:36):
it's all about getting up the middle on my homes.
So it's just funny where it's like, I'm with you, Chad,
there's there's gonna definitely moves. These guys will make the
just pieces, right, But at the end of the day,
it's like the Eagles run maybe four or five plays
honestly running the ball all season and no one can
stop it. Like that's how dominant they've been. So I
agree with you. There's gonna be things they're gonna try
to do and adjust in different looks, but at the

(23:57):
end of the day, it's like, you know, you just
can't stop great and this all you hope to do
is slow it down a little bit. So that's interesting
part of this one. It's like the already knows Spags
knows he can't stop this Seagull's rushing team. If he
can limit them in the red zone, that's gonna be
the key to this game.

Speaker 1 (24:11):
Well, let's hope that the Eagles and Chiefs combined for
less than two hundred and eighty five and a half
rushing guys Simon. The upcoming Super Bowl reminds me of
an old parable, the story of the scorpion and the frog,
who sit at the bank of a river. The scorpion
asks the frog to carry him across, but the frog resists,

(24:33):
fearing the scorpion will sting him as they cross. The
scorpion argues he'd never do that since it would doom
them both. So the frog agrees and begins swimming across
the river with the scorpion pawn his back. But sure enough,
midway across the river, the scorpion does sting the frog,

(24:56):
spelling disaster for them. Both philosopher ers argue about the
lesson of this tale as they grapple with the nature
of good and evil, But to me, the takeaway is simple.
Neither the fraud nor the scorpion we're able to make
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here raving about Tommy John. Simon, why will you be
wearing more Tommy John in twenty twenty.

Speaker 3 (26:15):
Five because comfort is king Right.

Speaker 1 (26:18):
Now, you can shop Tommy John dot com slash favorites
and get twenty five percent off your first order. Save
twenty five percent at Tommy John dot com slash favorites.
That's Tommy John dot com slash favorites, Simon. The inevitable
question is which one of us is the scorpion and

(26:41):
which one of us is the frog.

Speaker 3 (26:44):
M I'm probably the scorpion.

Speaker 1 (26:46):
I think you are too.

Speaker 3 (26:47):
Yeah, let's be honest.

Speaker 1 (26:49):
I think one hundred percent. I don't even think. I
don't even think there's a question. Matt Mitchell is killing
it with these. He is on a roll. Yeah, Like
I just look to these.

Speaker 3 (27:00):
Honestly, that gave me a view in it what I've
been like you reading me a bedtime story chat, And
I don't know, I don't know how I feel about it.

Speaker 1 (27:06):
Really, I feel like, you know what, When I was
reading it, I did feel like I was reading it
in sort of the voice tone and temper that I
used to read stories to my kids, and I felt
like I was killing it. The stage is set for
Super Bowl fifty nine and all the bets to come.

(27:27):
That means now is the perfect time to upgrade to
an Action Pro subscription. It's the only way to get
real time pick alerts from our experts like our guests
Chris Raybun and Sean Kerner, plus all the tools you
need to turn a profit betting in twenty twenty five.
Right now, new subscribers can get forty dollars off a
year of Action Pro at Actionnetwork dot Com slash s B.

(27:52):
That's forty dollars off for the full year, so you'll
be covered for the Super Bowl, March Madness, Baseball, NBA,
and even next college football and NFL season. Don't wait.
Visit Actionnetwork dot Com slash SB to get forty dollars
off Action Pro. Here's a prop like Everyone's opinion on this.

(28:15):
Here's a prop on Nick Giffen raised when he was
on with Simon and I last week and then also
discuss on Propapalooza Part one that he did with Grant Nieffer.
And I know, like the in the touchdown projections coroner,
Xavier Worthy has consistently been undervalued. So what about a

(28:37):
Xavier Worthy anytime touchdown plus under five and a half receptions?
Which Nick Giffen loved when we were discussing it last week.

Speaker 4 (28:49):
Yeah, anything Nick Giffin does, I approve. I love the
idea because I mean Worthy can score a touchdown with
a design Russia attempt, so he has he already has
a clear have to do this. But I think, yeah,
his reception prop it's also a bit high. He's explosive,
So yeah, I think it makes a ton of sense.
And of course it came up, but that's that's a

(29:10):
genius idea.

Speaker 1 (29:11):
Yeah, it's completely contrary, right, like because also there's a
lot of conversations like Xavier Worthy is going to be Simon,
I don't even know if you've noticed this, Like Xavier
Worthy is going to be one of those players who
people want to bet on MVP. That isn't Jalen Hurt,
Saquon Barkley, Patrick Mahomes right, because that's what always happens.

(29:33):
You want to bet on that receiver, you know, who
has longish odds, who's the recipient of all the passes
as a contrarian play to the quarterback, who is most
likely to win it could be.

Speaker 3 (29:48):
Also, I don't hate it just because we've already seen
the Eagles. As good as they are, they do have
some guys that are young in experience, and you saw
that with Terry McLaurin right, one mistackle and he broke it,
and the same can be saying here with Worthy. It's
like the type of defense that, yeah, if you make
one guy miss the way the Eagles play aggressive, especially
with their safeties, he could easily break one. But we've
seen the Eagles. They have some really good, great corners,

(30:10):
so you know if they put Quinny on Mitchell on him,
his night might be over and then you're good to go. Though,
you got the one catch right touchdown and this comes through.
So I definitely love the mind game of this one,
where it's like any Reid will find a way to
get this guy the ball, but it's all about the
matchup so he gets the wrong corner on him, he
just won't get the touches. So yeah, that feels a
little hot in me honestly, having him over five and
a half receptions. It's attack the Eagles, you attack the

(30:32):
middle of the field, right, We've seen that with the
tight ends these last couple weeks. So interesting that that's
that high.

Speaker 1 (30:38):
That was at about four to one last week when
Giffen talked about it on the show Ray Bond. You
and Stucky talked a little bit about Dallas Goddard on
the Action Network podcast on the six Pack. Stucky's been
making bank on Dallas Goddard during the playoffs. Do you
have any thoughts on his reception totals which are getting

(31:01):
kind of expect kind of high, and on his yardage totals. Again,
he's been a guy who throughout the playoffs, everyone at
Action has been betting what do you like or not
like about his current prices?

Speaker 5 (31:15):
So I think his reception prop is is too high,
Like you're betting him to get five catches. There's a
lot of ways that that could backfire. You know, Eagles
explosive plays in either facet that are not Dallas Goddard
Eagles to just have one of those games where they
pass on their you know, like twenty five times, which

(31:36):
is a very common thing for them. There's a lot
of ways that could go wrong. So I would rather
go with the yards because I think the Chiefs they've
given up the most yards to tight ends, like that's
they struggle with tight ends. Goddard. It's the most likely
to get a matchup on the weakest cheeks defender on
the field, whoever that might be Bolton, you know, whoever,
in coverage. So I think the yardage is better. But

(32:00):
and going back to the Worthy thing, I think what's
interesting with Worthy is and the reason why his reception
number is higher is because Andy Reid loves screens. In
the postseason, into two games, Worthy's had five screens thrown
to him total. Those are usually free catches, but he's
actually only caught three of the five. Usually you're expecting
him to catch five of the five. So I think

(32:21):
that's why the books are, you know, at that five
and a half number for Worthy, But five six catches
is a lot. It's easier to get when you get screens.
But got her to get five is that's that's kind
of a stretch. You know, I think the median is
closer to four, but so I would go yardage if
I'm trying to to bat Goddard at this point.

Speaker 1 (32:40):
Yeah. What's interesting about those screens, and it speaks to
what you talked about earlier, Raybund, is what the Chiefs
have done is turn themselves into a quick passing screen,
long handoff offense. Maybe it's because of how they're being
played downfield, but also because I think Andy Reid is

(33:00):
just trying to account for that that is offensive line. Yeah,
it's just completely trash. There's nothing else he can do.

Speaker 5 (33:07):
Yeah, and he has some speed now, he has some
speed at the receiver positions with Brown and Worthy, so
now they can make it work. I mean, if you
think about their receiving corps, Hopkins, Juju and Marky's Brown,
like they're kind of like afterthoughts, but like these guys
are all like thousand yard you know, former number one
receivers not even that long ago. But and then we're
these kind of the key cogs. So they have they

(33:28):
have enough pieces now to kind of make it work
with the quick game.

Speaker 1 (33:32):
Yeah, but when you name all those players Hopkins, Juju, Brown,
and you compare them to aj Brown DeVante Smith. Like,
there's so many places in this game where the roster
is overwhelmingly talent wise in favor of the Eagles. The

(33:54):
only thing the Chiefs have happens to be the two
most important things, Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.

Speaker 5 (34:03):
Yeah, because even Spags, Spags and Fangio, I mean Fangos,
no Spags. But he's up there, he's up.

Speaker 1 (34:09):
Oh No, I listen to me. This game is about Spags,
Read and Mahomes. That's why you bet I'm the Chiefs
At the end of the day. I want to get
into the sides and the totals a little bit, you know,
at the end, before we get out of here. But Crooner,
give me your next best prop.

Speaker 4 (34:29):
Yeah, so I'm going to go with this, Will any
player have one hundred plus rushing yards?

Speaker 6 (34:33):
I'm going to go with no at plus two ten.

Speaker 4 (34:37):
And obviously Saquon Barkley is a serious threat to this prop.
I'm pretty much in line with his his rushing yard prop.
I have it around one hundred and ten. Uh. I
agree with raybun earlier saying, you know, it could be
a little bit high still, but at the end of
the day, I'm giving him around a fifty eight percent
chance or you know, minus one forty to clear one

(34:58):
hundred yards. But if he stays under that, like, who
the hell else is going to clear this number. Both
quarterbacks have rushing upside, but neither one has cleared one
hundred yards of the season. The last time either one
has cleared it was Jalen Hurts back in Week twelve,
three seasons ago, back in twenty twenty two. You know,
Cream Hunt might need thirty plus carries to clear one

(35:20):
hundred yards. So I'm showing about, you know, a five
percent chance a non Barkley player clear's one hundred yards.
But if you think about it like that five percent
of the time most of the time, like Barkley's also
clearing hundred yards. So you know, in that situation you'd
have two players clear hundre yards. So in my sim

(35:41):
I have it closer at about you know, sixty one
percent chance we do see a player, probably Saquon Barkley,
clear it. So I have the fair price of no
player closer to you know, plus one fifty five to
not clear one hundred yards. So I'm showing quite a
bit of value on this. No at plus two to
ten right now.

Speaker 1 (36:00):
I am I'm not surprised at all that the pattern
we are seeing develop here is lower rushing totals, which
is in line with expectations. The Chiefs are doing something
to put the Eagles in a disadvantageous position where they
have to come back. Raybon, what's your last bet?

Speaker 5 (36:24):
So I actually think that the the theme is just
offensive numbers in general are inflated. So for this one,
I'm going with combined passing touchdowns for both teams under
two and a half at plus one point fifty. And
this may seem scary, but if you look at the
Eagles playoff games under two and a half passing touchdowns

(36:48):
combined has Hitten all three, they've had two exactly in each.
Kansas City even had a playoff game where they only
had one combined passing touchdown in that in that used
to game. So four out of the five playoff games
between these two teams thus far, you've gone under this number.
And then you look at it for the season, and

(37:11):
Kansas City about seven of eighteen and the Eagles eleven
of eighteen, so it's about a fifty to fifty shot.
So I think this should be a lot closer to
even money. I have it at about about plus one
twenty five fair odds, so I bet this to about plus
one thirty here. But you know, just going off to
pass data, it's about even money. And if you look

(37:34):
at Hurts one or fewer passing touchdowns eleven of eighteen starts,
he has no three touchdown games, so Mahomes has about four,
so he could ruin it. But there's a very good
chance that you know, with the Eagles red zone defense strength,
and you know the way the Eagles like to do
their business with the touch push and whatnot, that you
stay under this number. And I think it's being its

(37:57):
being undervalued here because who wants to bet under you know,
two and a half touchdowns with passing touchdowns with Mahomes
with nobody, So yeah, give you under two and a
half combined passing touchdowns at plus them fifty.

Speaker 1 (38:10):
Well. Also, this is perfectly correlated to your first prop,
which is over one and a half field goals by
the Chiefs. If you believe that the Chiefs will kick
more than one and a half field goals, then part
of you has to believe the Patrick Mahomes is not
going to throw multiple touchdown passes, which makes this a
perfect combination.

Speaker 6 (38:31):
And he can also run.

Speaker 5 (38:31):
He's running a lot more. You know, he showed he'd
even you know, take a designed run around and go on.
So there's a lot of different a lot of different outs.
But yeah, in general, I think offensive numbers are are
inflated in the market, and you know, probably waiting too
closer to the end of the week some of the
other prop shows we'll do to do some player props
because those are going to keep going up. But that's
kind of the theme for I think both of us

(38:52):
is just kind of finding these inflated offensive numbers pass
or run.

Speaker 3 (38:56):
I love this point too, because both these teams player
and stuff out on offense, which is super conservative and safe,
and we know the deal when you get in the
red zone, that literally can kill the game, right if
you make a red zone turnover. So one of my
favorite bets of correlates with this is Eagles over one
and a half rushing touchdowns. It's minus one thirty. A
lot of books I'm seeing Bethtew six five is already

(39:16):
up to minus one forty. I still love that price
for that prop, just because I think Eagles, you've seen
it time and time again, Like it can be second
and eight thirty eight and the Eagles are running on
that down if they can just get it to two yards,
and they usually think the defense will dropped back. So
I think there's a lot of opportunity to playing that.
I agree with Chris that you know, both these teams
when they do get down there, they do play conservative,

(39:38):
like they just don't want to turn the ball over.
That's just both been their remo because they've just believe
in both their defenses. So I do love this play,
and there's a lot of ways to correlate it with
a lot of other props.

Speaker 1 (39:47):
Well, look, these are all props that are tending towards
a game in which we expected to go under, and
that under now is anywhere from forty eight and a
half to forty nine and a half. Most places forty
eight and a half be three. SIS five is still
at forty nine and a half. I guess that in
any other game it makes sense. But if you look

(40:10):
at the past Super Bowls, the second half for five
six touchdowns scored with the Chiefs, all in games other
than that Bucks game where I think they were losing
by a touchdown. By ten points. How do we factor
in the explosive nature of sort of unexpected outcomes in

(40:34):
a Super Bowl? Simon, I mean.

Speaker 3 (40:37):
It's tough to say. Like a lot of a lot
of the players that talk about it say it's because
of the halftime, right, They're just they're not used to
going from ten minute halftime to thirty minute halftime. And
that's just you know, the human element of that. That's
a big deal. Right, That's a lot of really high adrenaline,
especially heading to the game the first half, and now
you're just relaxing for thirty minutes. And to me, both

(40:58):
these teams should know how to handle, right, I mean
they were literally played against the other just two years ago,
and like to your point, the Chiefs they've been the
best team. I mean maybe, I mean, I guess Tom
Brady was great at it two, but they're incredible second half.
I Mean every time Mahomes is down, you know, ten
points or whatever going to halftime in the Super Bowl,
he comes out on fire. And even that Eagles game,
you go back and watch it, I think he scored

(41:20):
three straight touchdowns and then kicked the field goal at
the end to win it all. So yeah, that's that's
an interesting point you bring up chat. It's it's clear
effected the defense is more so than the offense. We've
seen both teams usually come out on fire in the
second half rather than the first half.

Speaker 1 (41:37):
The first half total right now, I'm just checking here
in the Action Network app is twenty four, twenty three
and a half or twenty four and a half depending
on where you look. Does anybody have an opinion on
the first half total knowing there might be some cookiness

(41:58):
in the second half, and for the ranking for the
for the record, like luck rankings Kroner we had Nick
on there is no advantage luck rankings wise in this
game for the total or the side for that matter.

Speaker 4 (42:11):
Yeah, yeah, I do tend to lean towards the under here.
We've been talking about it. Both teams play pretty methodically.
They run the ball a ton. Maybe we won't see
a Saquon Barkley sixty plus yard rushing touchdown here, and
it actually takes them, you know, seven or eight more
plays to score if they do. But yeah, I'm leaning

(42:31):
towards the end. That's an interesting take to just take
the first half under. I might consider that, especially, you know,
a number like twenty four. If you can get that
key number, I think that makes a ton of sense.
But I think if anything, yeah, I'll be on the
under here.

Speaker 1 (42:45):
All right, Well that's what was gonna be my next question, Raybon,
I know where you stand. Tell the listeners, tell the
viewers your opinion on the side, total winning team, whatever
it is.

Speaker 5 (43:02):
Yeah, I think the chiefs of the right side. I
think the Eagles have the better roster. I do agree
with that. But I look at the way Spagnolo has
been able to scheme against top rushing attacks in the
last two Super Bowls just you know, like those are
bad Kansas City run defenses that he used, you know,
kind of disguises and he just kind of pulled different

(43:22):
things out of his hat, and you keep thinking he's gonna,
you know, run out of ways, and he keeps figuring
it out. And I think the real key matchup here
is but I like, I think Saquon will get his
you know, like as he has. Oh yeah, you're not
gonna fully stop Saquon. So but I think the key
for Spags is he can do a lot of things
pre snap that just makes Jalen Hurts think, you know,

(43:43):
a lot of different looks blitz is from all over
the place, switching into different fronts in the run game,
and you know coverage wise that you're gonna challenge Hurts
to make checks at the line of scrimmage over and
over and he's he's gotten better at that. But still
I wouldn't say he's you know up there. Yeah, So
I think that's really the key. And on the other side,
I think we saw that the even the Commanders moved

(44:05):
the ball against the Eagles, it was just the turnovers
they couldn't overcome. You know, you're not gonna probably get
that with the Chiefs. You know, I would be surprised
if the Chiefs turn it over more than maybe once
if that, And so you're gonna be able to just
kind of dink and dunk and you'll probably have to
kick some field goals. But at the end of the day,
I trust bags and I trust my home. So rolling

(44:26):
with the Chiefs minus one and a half. And if
you want to take like an exact like the last
two Super Bowls have been exactly three point three points
in favor of the Chiefs too, so you can take
like an exact or but I wouldn't I wouldn't hesitate
to kind of take something in that real like Chiefs
by one to six or something like that too.

Speaker 1 (44:46):
Coner, you hinted under a strong opinion about anything.

Speaker 4 (44:53):
Well, I tend to I'm going to have, like, you know,
fifteen to twenty props, so I kind of see what
I'm going to be rooting for and what correlates and whatnot.
But I'll probably pass on, you know, the side, but
I think, yeah, the under waiting to see I'm curious,
do you guys think it'll go back up go down?
But I feel like waiting on the under would make

(45:15):
sense because you're going to get more money to come
in towards the end, So just trying to time what
the best number would be. Maybe like you just recommended
looking at the first half, but I feel like when
you're waiting for the under, you can just kind of
see if the market will go up once we get
a little bit more public money in on the over.

Speaker 1 (45:31):
Yeah, Simon, I'm curious your thoughts on that.

Speaker 3 (45:34):
Yeah, And I'll just start with Chris's point, either team
to win by exactly three right now, I bet through
six five, Yes, is plus four hundred, So that's a
nice exact little bet. And you know, we've seen mahomes,
you know, other than that crazy overtime usually likes to
win these games by three, right, That's that's the their
mo They play the clock, they let it run and

(45:55):
they kick the field and they win. Or if they're
up by three, they'll just run the clock out. So yeah,
it's it's a pretty good number right now. Over at
Beth through six five. Yeah, my view of a chat was,
I'm I was with Sean. I thought I could be
patient on this total, and you know, I'm having a
good time over the weekend, and I get you a
message that some respected money was coming in on the

(46:16):
under and a lot of books were about to move it.
I had to run around try to find as many
fourty nine and a half as I could, and it's gone, Like,
I know, you just said you think it's a Betris
six five. I think it's just a glitch on our app.
But I'm looking at their book right now it's forty nine.
So oh really, Okay, if you could still find the
four and a half, I definitely grab it as a
key number. But it's pretty insane. The books took a
stand on this just because Sean just broke it down.

(46:39):
Like all the money right now early is on the
over that's gonna be four times the amount comes Sunday.
Like the Joe public betters, they haven't really bet this
game yet. They're they're just you know, waiting until that
next paycheck come on Friday and they'll lay it into
the Super Bowl year. So to me, if you missed
a four and a half, be patient, Like the book,

(47:00):
they might move it through the key number of forty
eight and a half, but I would be shocked, just
because they have no need to. Like the amount of
money pouring in right now on the over, it just
has to offset this professional mind that is coming on
this under. So yeah, I would say, if you missed
the forty nine and a half, be patient. I do believe
we'll go back, because right now it's overwhelming the out
of money right now on the over. So the fact

(47:22):
they have moved that a couple forty and a halfs
to a couple of respective books, it is pretty shocking,
all right.

Speaker 1 (47:29):
So many more super Bowl props from Raybond, from Kerner,
from Nick Giffen from Grant Need for our final two
pack of Super Bowl prop live shows is tomorrow, February fifth,
there'll be another tandem of thirty ish minute live shows
on the Action Network YouTube channel. Try to catch these lives.

(47:52):
The numbers get crushed, they just do. Like I couldn't
watch live last week. I was traveling by the time
I could listen to the show. Trying to get some
of these numbers not that easy. So listen live if
you can, and good luck if you can't. Just like
last week. Part one will be at four pm Eastern
with Nick and Grant, Part two with Raybaon and Kerner

(48:13):
at six pm once again. Wednesday's Super Bowl prop shows
four pm Eastern, six pm Eastern Action Network YouTube page.
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(48:34):
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I gotta say I used it used this past week.
Not only was it super easy, but then I did
get the cash back in my account. It was great.
I was so excited. We'd announced after the conference championship

(49:37):
games that we were doing our Super Bowl fifty nine
Get your prop on the board at bet three six
y five contest. This is a contest that I started
back in my ESPN days when we were doing the
Behind the Bets podcast with bookmaker Bob Scooty who ran
all the Boyd Gaming casinos as the bookmaker at in

(50:00):
Las Vegas, and he was the regular co host for
the show both when I was at ESPN and in
the early days. Are the Favorites here with Action and
Scooch would open it up. We'd have listeners send in
their quippiest yet bedible props and Scooch would put him
on the board. Bet three sixty five carries on the tradition.

(50:21):
We had so many entries. Matt Mitchell, You're going to
give us some honorable mentions and the finalists stick around
and you'll get an interview that me and Simon did
with the winner of the contest, Matt Mitchell. Hot damn.

Speaker 3 (50:37):
This is fun.

Speaker 1 (50:38):
Thank you, Chad.

Speaker 2 (50:39):
I will note before I begin that's that this began
so long ago. I can remember listening to these episodes
at my normal terrible nine to five human job, and
I would submit every year, and mine might have been
the worst of all.

Speaker 3 (50:55):
So like, I do want to.

Speaker 2 (50:56):
Stress that my selections here of what I liked and
what I submit to be through six five is not
a judgment on those that did not make it. I'm
sure they were far better than the ones that I
did ten years ago. Okay, First of all, I want
to call out two that played into the hands of
our sponsor, Tommy John, who again is in no way

(51:18):
affiliated with us, but it was good pandering, and I
love good pandering.

Speaker 3 (51:22):
The first is Sam.

Speaker 2 (51:23):
Householder, whose prop was big sacks total sacks over hundred
three and a half and our beloved super fan Chloe
Chris Acopolis give me that D, which was Devide Smith,
DeAndre Hopkins and the Big D himself, Dallas Goddard all

(51:43):
over their receiving yards.

Speaker 1 (51:46):
Ball tis standing.

Speaker 2 (51:48):
Yep, So no big sacks or give me that D.
You're free to bethos yourself under whatever title you'd like. Okay,
So now here are the official honorable mention. So these
were ones that just missed the cut of being submitted
to BET three sixty five also from our friend Chloe,
Go go Goddard, Dallas Goddard, five or more catches, sixty
or more yards a touchdown and Super Bowl MVP. This

(52:12):
one from Pierre's Eton. This is Big City Lights one
touchdown reception each for Hollywood Brown, Dallas Goddard, and Paris Campbell.
A little play on the three.

Speaker 7 (52:26):
Of their names.

Speaker 1 (52:27):
That's fantastic.

Speaker 3 (52:28):
Yeah, pretty good, pretty good.

Speaker 2 (52:29):
It's a shame that Paris Campbell's like non viable entity
in the in the playoffs, but it's very clever. Points
for being clever. Michael Freeberg had two that play into
the storyline that it is both Saquon Barkley and Cooper
Dejane's birthday on Super Bowl Sunday. First is the Eagles
birthday bash. Saquon two touchdowns and a Cooper interception. And

(52:53):
this one, which I found very clever, Saquon's twenty eight
saque to record twenty eight run plus receiving yards in
each quarter.

Speaker 1 (53:03):
Ooh that is good.

Speaker 2 (53:05):
Yeah, we have a Oh this was Gideon Martin. I'm
sorry Gideon that you did not win, but you did
submit to that I really enjoyed. First is winning hurts,
Losing hurts. Eagles money line hurts does not win MVP.
And one of my very favorites a return from Wentz.

(53:26):
Ye came Carson Wentz to attempt a pass.

Speaker 1 (53:31):
Ah, well, look that was a big one. Ray Bond
and Stuck you had a long conversation about, you know,
would someone other than a quarterback attempt to pass. I
feel like we should have gotten bet Maybe we can
get bet three six five to do an alternative one
just for that, because that's pretty good and that's going
to be one that I think a lot of people
would be interested in.

Speaker 2 (53:52):
Dave Helfen submitted failed to the Chiefs. The Eagles win
on a go ahead score with under thirteen seconds remaining
in regulation. I'll special fuck you to me the person
reading it. So thanks Dave, It's true. Stephen Contrerez, another

(54:13):
great one, Obi Juan Mahomie and Kwan Solo, Sequon and
Mahomes to combine for four hundred plus passing, rushing and
receiving yards.

Speaker 1 (54:25):
Well, that one feels really interesting. Kerner and Raybon, can
you do top of your head projections? Saquon, you both
have like one between one oh five and one ten
rushing Mahomes. I don't know what you have for his
passing yard.

Speaker 3 (54:38):
Of general.

Speaker 5 (54:41):
Fifty so that's uh, that would be about three.

Speaker 6 (54:44):
Sixty men Mahomes and others Berkley.

Speaker 5 (54:46):
Yeah, and then you have about thirty rushing for Mahomes.
That's that's three ninety, and then another like ten to
fifteen receiving for Yeah, I guess the median would be
around four hundred ish.

Speaker 1 (54:58):
That's incredible. Wonder how much research, because you know, it
was fun about these back in the day. People would
send research, they would send spreadsheets, they would send images
about how they were doing it. So I wonder if
this guy went back and did a lot of research
because people usually do that. It's fascinating.

Speaker 2 (55:13):
Oh, I still got nine thousand page emails with people
showing me their math, and I want to be like,
I can't stress this enough. Bet three, six, five will
do the math. You don't need to do the math there.
They're not going to take your word for it. How
this should be priced?

Speaker 1 (55:29):
I love it, It's great. This one is very important.

Speaker 2 (55:31):
Before I get to our six finalists, I do want
to congratulate longtime listener Brian Goldberg and his son Gerald,
who I think of every time I let one of
you use extended profanity. Sorry earmuffs, Gerald, but I want
to thank you because your submission allowed me to go
on this quick rant.

Speaker 3 (55:52):
This one was.

Speaker 2 (55:53):
Called pick licks lix. Will there be a pick six
in Super Bowl Lix? And I just want to say
that probably the simplest example of the decline of American
sports in general and are descent into academic and artistic
malaise more specifically, can be found in the NFL's treatment

(56:15):
of their beloved Super Bowl logo and what used to
be our annual national embrace of Roman numerals. Because we
used to have original designs for each of these Super Bowls.
Everyone on this show is old enough to remember those.
They were incredible, They were bright, and they were original.
They represented a time and a place, which is kind
of what the Super Bowl is. Every season is its

(56:36):
own thing. But then, because the NFL is a multi
billion dollar organization run with the artistic vision of a
Connecticut law firm, it's now delivered like a decade and
a half of the most soulless paint by number of
monstrosities of a logo. But worse of all, they've encouraged
the use of normal, non Roman numerals throughout the media,

(56:59):
which you'll never in the description of one of these podcasts,
and you know, people will complain, well, I don't know
Roman numerals. That's the whole goddamn point is every year
you get a brief lesson on Roman numerals, your dad
explains them to you, or a trusted adult or a
Roman and you'll learn a little bit about it, and
we say, isn't that kitchy and fun? And then we
go back to using regular ass numbers for everything else.

(57:22):
So I just wanted to thank you the Goldbergs for
letting me go on that free framet.

Speaker 1 (57:37):
Yeah, thanks Goldbergs. That was really Great.

Speaker 2 (57:42):
Okay Now who are six finalists. These were submitted to
Bet three sixty five and their trading team selected the winner.
Number one Damien Glick, who was one of at least
forty people to submit a prop called Hurts So Good
aka the Ellen Camp. This one was Jalen Hurts two

(58:03):
hundred and fifty plus yards, fifty plus rushing yards, two
plus passing touchdowns, a rushing touchdown, Eagles money line, and
Hurts MVP. So basically, the Hurts So Good is the
Jalen Hurts career game.

Speaker 5 (58:18):
They so good.

Speaker 2 (58:28):
The second most common title is from Pierce Eton, who
had the best version of it, which is all Barkley,
no bite, Barkley fifteen or more rush attempts under one
hundred yards rushing, no touchdowns, which I felt like a
very Sean and Chris style prop.

Speaker 1 (58:47):
Yes, totally, they basically gave. They basically just gave that yep.

Speaker 2 (58:52):
Number three from John Reevey. Oh Say Kwan you see
saquon rushing yards verse is the national anthem length in seconds,
as Sakwan's total is currently at one fifteen and a
half somewhere around there, and Nashal anthem is somewhere around
one hundred and twenty one hundred and twenty one seconds.
So a very good prop, very cleverly named number four

(59:15):
Ray Hogan the three peat three for the Chiefs to
three peat by exactly three points on their third successful
field goal in the last three minutes of regulation.

Speaker 1 (59:28):
Big time trying to play every time he does another one.

Speaker 5 (59:33):
We thought he's made his all time best.

Speaker 3 (59:35):
And look at this.

Speaker 2 (59:37):
Unbelievable number five from someone just called Lesteif this is
the three cheat Philly to have three or more accepted
penalties than the Kansas City Chiefs.

Speaker 1 (59:50):
Ah, I get it, I get it the favoritism.

Speaker 2 (59:55):
Indeed, indeed, all right, our last one, which will be
revealed in full in the interview you're about to hear
between Chad and the winner, Jason Side. I will tease,
but we'll tell you that as a reminder to find
this winning submission and bet it yourself. Just go to
bet three sixty five and look under super Bowl fifty specials.

(01:00:20):
You will find this bet and loads more just like
it again bet three sixty five under super Bowl fifty specials.
And now I'll turn it to you.

Speaker 3 (01:00:29):
Chad.

Speaker 1 (01:00:32):
It is time to reveal the winner of our Get
your prop up on Bet three sixty five's Super Bowl
Big Board contest. I feel like this prop. I don't
want to reveal it yet, but I know this prop
and its name is something that you can appreciate.

Speaker 3 (01:00:47):
I'm hoping it's it's Egles related.

Speaker 1 (01:00:49):
Then it will be Eagles related.

Speaker 3 (01:00:52):
Let's bring in.

Speaker 1 (01:00:53):
Let's bring in the winner of the prop contest. His
name is Jason Society from Claremont Lord.

Speaker 7 (01:01:01):
He is a.

Speaker 1 (01:01:02):
Control systems guru at Universal Studios in Orlando. Jason, congrats,
welcome to the show, brother.

Speaker 7 (01:01:11):
Big guys, thank you. I'm happy to be here.

Speaker 1 (01:01:14):
Where does this honor rank? Do you think is sort
of your history of awards and accomplishments.

Speaker 8 (01:01:21):
Let's see, besides the birth of my daughter, in marrying
my wife is right behind that at number three.

Speaker 1 (01:01:27):
Those are barely two things that might qualify as being
better than this. I do want you to reveal the
name of the prop and tell people what it is,
and then I want to get into how you thought
of it and all that kind of good stuff. But
let's reveal the name of the prop that people can
go bet at Bet three sixty five right now.

Speaker 8 (01:01:43):
Yeah, So the prop name is I'm always Runny in Philadelphia.
And then the prop is for the Eagles that have
over two hundred and eighty.

Speaker 1 (01:01:53):
Rushing yards, which would be a Super Bowl record, right
it will be a super record record. And right now
with bet three sixty five you can get that. I
think it's a plus sixteen hundred. You can get that
at bet three sixty five. Simon and always Sonny prop.
That might be the most apt prop we've ever had
for this show.

Speaker 5 (01:02:13):
If life pushes you down, you gotta push back.

Speaker 3 (01:02:16):
If you're dump a bunch of lemons, you gotta take
those limits and stuff them down somebody's throat until I
see yell them, especially where that's an amazing record. I
had no idea it was that many rushing yards. So
I definitely love to play sixteen to one, come one,
give us twenty to one. Bet better odds to you,
But yeah.

Speaker 5 (01:02:33):
I can't.

Speaker 1 (01:02:34):
You know, it's funny. We felt like that was pretty
good given the circumstances. Jason, how did you think of
the prop?

Speaker 8 (01:02:40):
Well, so, a good prop really needs three things, right,
You need to catch your name, You need something you
can't really bet it's like a normal bet. And a
third thing, you need to have something that's you know,
it's probably gonna have plus odds because, as you both say,
the book is not your friend.

Speaker 3 (01:02:57):
They are here that issue. I'm definitely gonna betting this
because that's the best way for the Eagles to win
right now is for Saque to be running. So I'll
be happily going to be making this bet chat, especially
at those odds.

Speaker 1 (01:03:07):
As you and I have both said for the past
couple of weeks, we're on the Chiefs here. So the
best way to invest in the Eagles at a high
return with relatively low investment is a bet like this
because it does mean the Eagles are dominating the game. Jason,

(01:03:27):
do you have a betting interest in the game?

Speaker 8 (01:03:29):
Have a Super Bowl ticket on the Eagles, and so
I will be rooting for the Eagles. One thing with this,
so I was looking at the Eagles box scores this year.
They've hit this number twice, first time in the regular
season against the Rams, and then they hit it again
in the playoffs against the Rams.

Speaker 7 (01:03:44):
I'm hoping the Chiefs also can't stop sake one.

Speaker 1 (01:03:47):
How long you've been betting, I've been playing.

Speaker 8 (01:03:49):
Poker for a long long time, and so you know
a sports gambling was right right along with that.

Speaker 7 (01:03:57):
So you know, since I was a kid, probably awesome.

Speaker 1 (01:04:00):
We'll listen. We're thrilled you submitted it. There were great entries.
This was the runaway hit Matt Mitchell. You know he's
the arbiter of all these things and it takes a
lot to mate Mac Mitchell. Laugh a little bit and
be tickled.

Speaker 3 (01:04:14):
Do you think it would kill you to say good
job Matt?

Speaker 1 (01:04:17):
So Jason Siety, Claremont, Florida, Always running in Philadelphia plus
sixteen hundred. I'm Bet three sixty five right now. Thanks
for listening to the Favorites. Thanks for playing the contest.
I hope this cash is I hope you make bank
on Super Bowl Sunday.

Speaker 7 (01:04:34):
Well, thank you, guys. I appreciate it.

Speaker 1 (01:04:36):
As a reminder, the Favorite podcast is presented by Bet
three six y five and now new Bet three sixty five.
Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets
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(01:04:58):
President Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,
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Terms conditions restrictions apply. Simon or I will return with
our next episode of the Favorites on the Action Network
YouTube page eleven am Eastern Thursday to talk our Super

(01:05:19):
Bowl best bets with Brandon Anderson. Download us from Spotify,
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(01:05:42):
you please gamble responsibly.

Speaker 2 (01:05:45):
If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
help is available twenty four to seven at one eight
hundred gambler