The Favorites - Super Bowl LIX Best Bets

It's all led up to this. The final episode of the NFL season has arrived, as Action Network NFL experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter discuss their top picks for Super Bowl LIX along with their colleagues Brandon Anderson and Evan Abrams. Brandon provides the plays he'll be betting on Sunday, including a handful of plus-money spots he'll be targeting. Later on, Evan Abrams takes us home with his favorite bets based on his extensive research, including a Halftime/Full-time wager with plenty of value. And to all the listeners who have joined us this season, thanks to each and every one of you for making The Favorites Podcast the most popular sports betting podcast in the land! Best of luck on all your wagers, and we'll catch you right back here for our Super Bowl LIX Recap episode next week! #Volume #herd

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
I am Chad Mollman of the Action Network. I am
live from my Tommy John home studio, and I'm joined
as always by my co host, my companion, Mike and
padre My BFF professional better Simon Hunter Ella.

Speaker 2 (00:27):
Simon, Hello, Chad, how are we doing?

Speaker 1 (00:30):
Getting closer?

Speaker 3 (00:31):
Brother?

Speaker 1 (00:31):
And as we speak, as we record, lines are moving
and not in the direction we thought they would last week.
As we speak, lines are moving in the direction of
the Eagles. Last week lines went from one and a
half to two. This week, lines are moving from one

(00:51):
and a half to one. You're seeing it a bunch
of Jersey books. It also happened at a big Vegas book.
Very interesting thing that lines are moving in the direction
right now of the Philadelphia Eagles. I'm glad I can
get the Chiefs at a cheaper price on the money
line or on the number fantastic. Today is our Super

(01:15):
Bowl Best Bets episode with our favorite director of research,
Evan Abrams is going to join us at the end
of the show, as he always does. We'll also bring
in Hot Reads specialist in Evan's partner on the Action
Network podcast Sunday Version, Brandon Anderson. We will of course

(01:35):
discuss our Foxhole, our Tommy John Big Balls, Simon's Biggest Bets.
We're gonna play some scoot Roulette, all that jazz bets
are rolling in. As I said, lines are moving, decisions
need to be made. As our volume podcast boss Colin
Cowhard likes to say, there's a sea of money out there.
As a reminder, The Favorites podcast is presented by Bet
three sixty five and now new Bet three sixty five.

(01:57):
Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets
when you bet five dollars sign up using promo code
Favorites deposit ten dollars a place to bet for five
dollars to get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets.
Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,
and more. Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary. Bet three
sixty five must be twenty one or older and present
in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,

(02:23):
or eighteen and older in Kentucky gambling problem called one
eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in
Iowa terms, conditioned restrictions apply. Okay, it's Thursday, last Thursday
of the season in which we get to hear how
the wise guys are responding to our conversations. Lines move

(02:44):
based on what we say. The pros feel compelled to
weigh in on our opinions. Simon, let's do sharp calls.

Speaker 2 (02:54):
Hello, who's there, I'm talking rain.

Speaker 1 (02:58):
Rain telephone range. Somebody saying, man.

Speaker 2 (03:03):
Yeah, sharp clalls is only one game.

Speaker 4 (03:05):
It's it's pretty insane how much it's just so much opinion,
so many everyone's got the answers right, especially when you're
turning professional betters.

Speaker 2 (03:13):
They already know the answers on the test.

Speaker 4 (03:14):
But this week, honestly, we started out it was basically
everyone I knew was taking a position on the Chiefs
in the under, and a couple of the smarter betters
took the Eagles up plus two. And you know, we
talked on Tuesday show, I think even Sunday night, Like, Okay,
I get why they would take that early number, but
I expected most professionals to be on the chief side,

(03:35):
and it's.

Speaker 2 (03:36):
Actually gone the other way. I'm seeing it more that.

Speaker 4 (03:38):
The public is on the chief side and more professionals
are lined up taking the eagle side.

Speaker 2 (03:42):
I think it is what we talked about, right.

Speaker 4 (03:43):
It's most guys that do models are going to have
the Eagles as the better team across the board.

Speaker 2 (03:47):
So it's not that shocking.

Speaker 4 (03:49):
I mean, our review of it is we agree we
think the Egles are the better team across the world,
but the two most important positions, the coach and the quarterback,
the Chiefs do have an advantage there. So yeah, it's
it's been pretty wild. Like a lot of the pros,
I note.

Speaker 2 (04:02):
Chad, they've been, you know, taking this eagle side, but it's.

Speaker 4 (04:06):
Not like they're hammering it heavy, right, It's not like
that where they're really taking a standard, because I think
most people view it as there's not a ton of
value in the number itself. Right, if you like the Eagles,
A lot of guys weren't taking the plus one. They
were just taking the plus one ten. Now you've seen
that that number is gone, right, Most books now were
down to plus one oh five. Even flipping a couple
of books now are at minus one oh four for

(04:28):
the Eagles, So yeah, it's it's interesting to seeing that
number move, and obviously that's professional money moving that number.
That's not Joe Public moving. And same goes for that under.
Like I wanted to give out the under here on
the show today, he's still going to do it. We've
seen that forty nine and a half just disappear. Like
I've been looking all across every book, it's gone totally.
At the highest you can get now is forty nine,

(04:48):
which is still good value. But when we talked last week,
I thought it would go the other way. I was like,
hopefully it gets to fifty by the time we do
our next show. That's not the case, right, most people
that had respected money came in and took the or
so as you said, you're right now, it seems like
respected money Eagles and the under I think me and
you know the deal, right, disrespected money to save money

(05:09):
that two weeks ago came in heavy on the bills.
The Bills literally went from a minus or plus two
dog to a pick them by kickoff against the Chiefs.
That number steamed before kickoff, and that's respected professional money.
Looks like they're trying to fade Mahomes once again. Chad,
So pretty interesting. They're they're taking that stand where I
think mean of the same opinion. It's like it's easy money,

(05:32):
it's easy living, taking Mahomes and out stressing about it.
So I am shocked to see that so much respected
money is coming on this eagle side.

Speaker 1 (05:39):
It just makes no sense to me. It's it's it's
just astonishing that someone in this day and age, giving
everything we know about Patrick Mahomes and how he performs,
everything we know about Andy Reid and how he performs,
everything we know about Steve Spagnolo and how he performs.
We have we have a very decent sized sample set

(06:02):
of data that indicates how these guys perform in high
pressure situations when the stakes are the highest, whether it's
end of the regular season, to clinch a playoff seed,
clinch a first round by, to clinch the number one
seed in the AFC, to clinch home field advantage, to
clinch a to a trip to the Super Bowl, to
clinch a trip to win the Super Bowl. Like Mahomes

(06:26):
doesn't lose, He just doesn't lose. Let me, before I
bring in Brandon Anderson, let me just read a couple
more stats that we talked about last week, but they
are worth repeating, if only because this line is moving
in his direction. January February, Mahomes have played eighteen games
at home r on a nutrient field, sixteen and two
straight up his losses Joe Burrow and Tom Brady. We

(06:48):
are right now being asked to bet Patrick Mahomes essentially
straight up to win this game if you throw. In
November and December, he's forty four and six straight up.
In just the playoffs. He's been an underdog, are a favorite,
under a field goal eight times eight no straight up
and against the spread. Mahomes has trailed in the fourth

(07:09):
quarter of ot, fourth quarter or overtime in nine total
playoff games. He's won six of those games, forced ot
in two of those games. Astonishing. Brandon Anderson talk to me,
no one, but.

Speaker 5 (07:26):
No one is offering you action like this. It's the
gambling experience on lifetime, and it's my way of saying,
I understand men like you.

Speaker 2 (07:37):
I know what you want, I know what you need.
This is where you belong.

Speaker 6 (07:41):
Yeah, I mean it's really hard to get away from it.
Just coming down to Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts. Who
do you like to win the game?

Speaker 1 (07:47):
When?

Speaker 7 (07:47):
Who do you like to win the game?

Speaker 6 (07:48):
If it's close late, either Pat has the ball and
I like the Chiefs, or Jalen has the ball and
I like the Chiefs. And that's the problem is if
it's close late, I'm gonna like the Chiefs. Either Jalen
Hurts away from home has not been good in the playoffs.
Andy Reid on arrest twenty nine and three straight up
with thirteen plus days of rest with either Patrin Holmes

(08:11):
or Donovan McNabb, Like all the trends line up this way,
like it's gonna be billed as Mahomes Versus Hurts, of course,
because it's the quarterbacks and it is Mahomes versus Hurts,
But we already know what Mahomes is gonna do to me.
It's not Mahomes versus Hurts. It's Spags versus Hurts. And
that's why I'm on the Chiefs as well, because I
just haven't trusted Jalen Hurts down the stretch for this team.

(08:33):
I haven't really felt like I trusted him even in
this playoff run, and I do trust with an extra
week to prep especially that Spags are gonna find some answers.
He's gonna dial up some blitzes. Jalen Hurts loves to roll, right,
that's gonna be something that I think Spags will be
ready for. I think he's gonna mix up the coverages Casey,
he plays a lot of man. Hurts is great against man,
but not good against zone. I think we're gonna see

(08:53):
a lot of kind of mixed hidden coverages. And I
just trust even as good as Philly's Dias been, as
Pangael has been, I trust any one off setting what
we've seen time and time, like this is the mahomes
read thing that we've seen, but it's Spags two and
it has been this whole way. I know that's something
you guys keep talking about as well. And I just
think he's kind of the MVP for this game to me,

(09:16):
because I don't trust Jalen Hurts against Spags up against
Patrick Mahomes.

Speaker 1 (09:21):
Well, Simon, I got two big questions for you. One,
would you like to respond to Brandon's Jalen Hurts insults
not trusting Jalen Hurts. I know it's very sensitive topic.
I don't even like to I don't like to criticize
Jalen Hurts anymore because I know it makes everyone in

(09:42):
Philadelphia very upset.

Speaker 4 (09:44):
Well, you just you would talk nonsense chat at least
Brandon here's coming with something to latch onto some sense
of reason. But I view it as it's a ben
don't break from Spags. Like the last time they played
in the Super Bowl, Hurts through for three j yards
had four touchdowns. So yes, does Spags run a great
de defense, of course, but he didn't break.

Speaker 2 (10:02):
That was the key to that game.

Speaker 4 (10:03):
Like they eventually in the second half made the right
adjustments and they won the game because of a punt
like they held against Hurtz Sirianty punted. That was the game,
Like that was all the Chiefs needed to get it
front of that last game the time they played. And
that's the type snare we have here where it's like,
you know, Spags, he won't mind giving up the yards.
It's all about in the red zone. If he can
stop the Eagles in the red zone, bottle them down,

(10:24):
they can win this game. That's how they will win
this because we already know the deal, Chad. Like, the
more I break down and look into this game, the
Eagles are so much better than the Chiefs across the
board in every position. Basically, it's like incredible, how well
built this team is, that, how he's done this year,
Like he basically nailed every little pick, every you know,
bringing in linebackers that end up being all pros like

(10:46):
that just doesn't happen in football. So when you really
break it down, like we said, I get where the
pros are coming from betting on this Eagles team, But
me and you have gone through this, Chad, We've lived
in the moment where the Chiefs are never the better team,
but they are the best at playing chess in football,
like them playing you and the clock and then the
fourth quarter. That's where Andy Reid and Mahomes shine. So

(11:08):
like we always talk about if it's if those three points,
if we were a getting plus three, me you would
have been happy to take the Eagles. But with Mahomes
and Andy Reid under that key number of three, if
Mahomes under that number, or he's a dog, you don't
overthink it, you don't over analyze it. You just take
the number that's great value. So it's the same thing here.
It's like, you know, the more I break it down,

(11:29):
I'm so glad we did that Tuesday show last week
because at this point it would be hard for me
not to be on the Eagles. But I keep in reminding
myself that's the sucker move, Like you're having too much time,
you're overthinking it. We get it. The egos of the
better team. They don't have Mahomes, and that's always the
difference for I joke with you come to the playoffs
and say, if you want to win a super Bowl,
you either need a ton of luck or Patrick Mahomes.

(11:49):
The Chiefs have both. They have a ton of luck
and they have Patrick Mahomes. So it's just my model
can't quantify it. It's just one of those things that's
the human intuition. Some that watches football and someone that
just knows how this sport is. And it's the Tom
Brady effect. It's like these guys, your model can't compute it.
It's just the human element of it. So yeah, that's
where I'm that with Mahomes. It's like I've been looking

(12:10):
for reason to take this egle team, and I keep
coming back to who do you trust in the fourth quarter,
It's going to be Mahomes.

Speaker 2 (12:15):
Andy Reid, so yeah, don't overthink of people.

Speaker 1 (12:18):
Well, that's what's so interesting to me is that the
Mahomes effect is why this line opened where it did.
Because if you go back Brandon like last year, at
this time, we're talking about the Niners and the Chiefs,
and the Chiefs are two point underdogs, and everybody has
the Niners power rated as the better roster by about

(12:40):
two points. This year, everyone has the Eagles power rated
as the better roster, and the Chiefs open at one
and a half and two. And now it's finally moving
in that direction. Some people are the bookmakers at least,
are trying to quantify that Mahomes effect, even if some
one else has taken the bait.

Speaker 7 (13:03):
Yeah, I mean I think I noted.

Speaker 6 (13:05):
You know, we came on the podcast right after the
NFC Championship and AFC Championship, and it's even before we
got Chiefs or Bills playing out. We're gonna have the
same matchup, far superior roster or far superior quarterback that
was gonna be the decision in the Super Bowl, even
if it had been the Bills, it was gonna be
the same sort of setup. Was Okay, do you want

(13:25):
Josh Allen or do you want everything else on the
Eagles And you know, in this case you get Josh Allen,
plus you get the other things, plus you get Andy
Reid and you get spags and everything else. And yeah,
it's hard to quantify, especially when the line is right
around zero and it's like, okay, those half points and
points aren't quite as valuable right around there compared to

(13:47):
you if it was getting to year three or getting
to where it's key number of spots, and you know
it's more valuable now for moneyline play. So maybe that's
probably the pivot instead to get some value out of
the movement, and especially as someone that will be betting
the Chiefs waiting for some of this money to push
toward Philadelphia and get a little bit better price nextra
five to ten cents on the Chiefs. Thank you, I

(14:09):
appreciate it. I appreciate any line movement in this direction.
But yeah, to me, I think one thing that we
need to factor in despite that, the Eagles' roster strength
is very clear, the line, the weapons, the defensive talent.

Speaker 7 (14:24):
I think one key for me.

Speaker 6 (14:26):
Philadelphia's had such a soft strength of schedule this season,
and you can only beat the teams that are in
front of you. But do you guys know they've only
played all season, including the playoffs, still four games against
a top twelve DVA offense this or DVA defense this
entire season, and so we don't really trust what will
the offense do. For the Eagles in particular, they've I

(14:48):
think only trailed something like four minutes in the fourth
quarter in the last thirteen games.

Speaker 2 (14:53):
Well, that's great.

Speaker 6 (14:54):
That means that you're a really good team in winning
a lot, but you might trail against the Chiefs, And
now what's going to happen? What's gonna happen? Jalen hurts
when you actually have to go do the thing and
go win the game in the big moment. Now, look,
he did the thing two years ago, and we kind
of get to the spot where Eagles two years ago,
forty nine Ers last year, and now Eagles this time.

(15:15):
Is like, Okay, you hear a lot of people that
are just just take the Chiefs, just take Mahomes. And
if you're on the other side, and I have to
admit I've been on the other side both the last
two Super Bowls, you find yourself getting creative. You don't
want to just take the Eagles. You're like, well, Eagles,
but first half or we were talking before he came on,
what if I get bet Eagles first fifty eight minutes?

(15:38):
Like we're all terrified of Mahomes. And I think it
should be telling to us as betters that one side
feels confident just taking the team and the points and
the number whatever it is, and the other side is like, well,
like I did last time Philadelphia halftime in a full
time and I was like, Okay, my numbers say I

(15:58):
like the Eagles, even though I want to bet on
pat And if I do like the Eagles, I'm probably
gonna like them if they're leading at behalf, because they've
been such a good second half team like they have
been this year, and so I kind of talk myself
about the way they're they are up ten at the half.
They still didn't win anyways because Mahomes, because they found
a way late. So I think it's telling that you

(16:19):
see a lot of smart betters betting on the Eagles,
but betting creatively to still get away from the money
line and the points because we're so afraid of what
the Chiefs and Mahomes have done late. There is just
something unquantifiable about eleven to zero one score games, about
making those plays and about having frankly maybe the best

(16:40):
to ever do it down the stretch being able to
come up with something.

Speaker 1 (16:44):
Well, Simon, you're a professional Better who seems to be
going against your brethren in quantifying it or not exactly
quantifying it, but taking it into account when you're making
your bet. Whereas the money is moving from professional Better
is in the direction of the Eagles, who while of

(17:04):
the Eagles power rated higher, why are professional Better is
being so stubborn and not recognizing the brilliance and clutchness
of Patrick Mahomes.

Speaker 2 (17:16):
They're also playing the odds too.

Speaker 4 (17:17):
I don't want to make it sound like these guys
are idiots, like they're just playing the mathematical number.

Speaker 2 (17:21):
Like you just read those stats, Chad.

Speaker 4 (17:23):
It's not going to keep going that way forever, right,
we know we know that things, especially in our line
of work, they always break the other way.

Speaker 2 (17:29):
My view of is okay, But what if he's the exception?
Like that's my whole issue with it.

Speaker 4 (17:34):
Where they where they keep bringing up the historical data
and everything like that, that's like, do we have an historical
data to back up Mahomes here like nothing he does
makes any sense. We've already talked about this at nauseum,
but like you know, he is someone that just raises
to the level and things always just break his way.
I joked about with you in life chat if I
had a superpower, my super power would be luck. I

(17:56):
my whole life have always been lucky. I'm one of
those people, and I think my home is the exact
same way. Like to me, they were gonna lose that
Bills game. He needed his defense to step up and
make a stop. That wasn't the Mahomes were used to, right,
it's usually him controlling his own destinaily not there like
they the Bills. If they got a couple of first
downs gone down the field got their touchdown, that game
was gonna be over. But it played in Mahomes right.

(18:19):
The defense did step up when they need too, They
did get the stops, and the first time all season
he was able to score over thirty points. Like, it's
just the way it is. None of it makes sense.
So I do think it's interesting the fact that they
are stubborn where me and you we learned our lesson
with that Ravens game last year.

Speaker 2 (18:37):
Like that was really enlightening to me.

Speaker 4 (18:39):
Of just it doesn't matter if it's a horrible matchup
for Mahomes and he's going against one of the best
teams I've ever seen.

Speaker 2 (18:45):
That Ravens team was last year, it didn't matter.

Speaker 4 (18:48):
You overcame it with a horrible team and they end
up win a super Bowl. The same thing can be
said for him this year. It's like, we know, they're
not that great of a team when we talked, like
they have an awful offensive line, they somehow went fifteen
to one.

Speaker 2 (19:00):
Like he just overcomes all these things.

Speaker 4 (19:01):
So I'm right there with you, like, you know, my
view of this Eagles team is, you know, yeah, sure,
they've had a pretty easy path. I mean both super
Bowls they've made it to in the last three years,
they only need to beat a rookie quarterback in their
conference championship to make it. Mahomes had to beat Josh
Allen and Lamar. It's like, we are not the same.
Those are a totally different world. So I totally get

(19:24):
that viewpoint. But I do think it's interesting that, you know,
coming to the season, any when you talk to had
a higher grade in review on Jordan Love or Stafford
and he basically Eagles basically beat those two teams by
double digits, and we all heard the noise coming to this,
right Jane Daniels. People are viewing him as the best
quarterback in the NFC right now, and he got absolutely
rolled in that game against the Eagles.

Speaker 2 (19:44):
He put up twenty three points.

Speaker 4 (19:45):
So this is the defense that have stepped up every
quarterback they've faced. They're now going against the best quarterback
we've ever seen, arguably, So.

Speaker 2 (19:53):
Can they do it one more time?

Speaker 4 (19:55):
We know all the day and the Fangs defense, right,
he actually matches up pretty well with Mahomes just because you'
Russia's for But in those games, we never saw Fanks
have a good quarterback on the other side, So we
know he's over eight. But those we talked about, those
numbers are a little skewed. Evan helped us break that
down that it's not as overwhelming terrible as you think
it would be. So I know why pros are betting

(20:17):
this Eagles team chat. But like we joked, we've learned
our lesson. As long as we're getting Mahomes with Andy
Reid as under a three points, me and you are
not gonna overthink it anymore. And I'm so happy because
I'm not gonna let you. I was worried you were
going to try to zag on this one, but no,
we we both came to the dark side.

Speaker 2 (20:33):
We're both on the Chiefs.

Speaker 1 (20:34):
No. But what's interesting is you mentioned the regression. And
I was actually talking about this with someone yesterday, which
was we're so dug in on the Chiefs. Are we
not accounting for the possibility of regression? Brandon? At what

(20:54):
point do the numbers become so big that regression isn't
the norm, regression is the anomaly? And have we hit that?

Speaker 2 (21:06):
Yeah?

Speaker 6 (21:06):
I mean I think we have to account that that.
You know, there is always the exception proves the rule,
and it certainly seems like Mahomes read the whole Chiefs thing,
have become the exception that proves the rule. And I
think too, even betting against regression, you bet against regression,
you know, on a futureist ticket for the whole playoffs,
or you bet against regression on an entire regular season ticket.

(21:29):
You don't necessarily bet against it in one game because
now you're trying to catch the falling knife. And how
do we know if progression came this game, maybe it does.
Maybe the Chiefs go you know, zero for five on
fourth down in this game or something, or maybe the
Eagles go five for five in the red zone and
four for four and fourth down like you know, fumble luck,
all those things. That's why we watch the sport, That's

(21:50):
why it's a fun sport to watch and bet on,
because the ball is oblong and weird stuff's going to happen.
But at some point you create your own luck. And
it sure seems like somehow the Chiefs keep creating their
own luck, like they're up with the luck rankings every time,
of course, but all right, at some point are they
breaking that formula too? Like is it just always going
to come up? Patrick ma Holmes. That feels like is

(22:12):
starting to look that way. And I think too, as
we look at, you know, the metrics and the power ratings,
I think we have to have learned by now also
that that formula just doesn't work for the Chiefs and
the playoffs. It is just not representative of what they are.
They're saving plays for the playoffs. They're in fact probably

(22:32):
purposefully burning bad plays or plays that might be bad
to get them on tape in the regular season. To
set them up for the playoffs, spags of saving his
best stuff.

Speaker 7 (22:42):
Like we talked about that Josh.

Speaker 6 (22:43):
Allen play, the big one where they got three guys
coming off the edge and everyone was upset about, well,
should he have thrown it to Shakira underneath? You know
he hits Kincaid in the hands. Should he have Kadawa?
All the bills guys said, we didn't know that that
blitz was coming. Like, they set up that one all
game long, all season long. This was a different thing.

(23:03):
They waited all year for one play when they needed
it because they're the Chiefs and they can because they
know they're gonna be here again, and they're they're playing
a totally different game than everyone else. They're not fighting
to get down to the end. They're gonna be at
the end anyways. So the whole thing is a chess
game toward the end. So their defensive metrics in October November,

(23:26):
who cares doesn't matter, doesn't factor into how we have
to think about them right now. Patrick Mahomes tenth best
EPA or whatever it was for this season doesn't matter.

Speaker 7 (23:35):
Now.

Speaker 6 (23:36):
It's Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs and in the super
Bowl and that's the version we have to get. And
so somehow that too is like unquantifiable in a power
rating system and a setup of what the Chiefs are
is that they're playing a different game than everyone else,
and the metrics that we all use to measure things
and try to capture stuff like this just don't quite

(23:57):
work in a playoff setting when they have different rules.
And it's kind of like the Patriots too, that they
have their own rules, they did their own thing, and
that somehow found a way to work.

Speaker 1 (24:06):
It's also harder for regression to come when three different factors,
meaning Andy Reid, Steve Spagnolo, and Patrick Mahomes, need to
underperform on the same exact play at the same exact
time and the same exact circumstances. That's just not likely
to happen. And those are the three factors that create

(24:29):
this alchemy that is, as we've said, unquantifiable.

Speaker 4 (24:33):
That's been my argument thought what you just said, I said,
I believe that you're right, regression is coming once those
pieces are gone. Okay, like Momes, this will come back around.
That has to be once Amy or Spag someone something
has to change dramatically for this team to have regression
in that type of ways. That's been my pushback against it.
Same thing last week, like guys were handing the bills

(24:54):
because they love that Bill's number that side. I kept
pushing them back against it, saying, you're overthinking this, like
that regression. You can't qualify for these one or two games.
They're just it doesn't work that way, especially with Mahomes
and you know so far we've seen it. It's it's
hold true he's eight to ozher when it's under three
points in the playoffs. It's just you can't wrap your
head around. All you gotta do is not overthinking.

Speaker 2 (25:13):
Just bet it.

Speaker 1 (25:14):
Randon. We have a note here about betting on Super
Bowl defense. Explain yourself.

Speaker 6 (25:20):
Yeah, I always want to bet on defense to make
big plays in Super Bowl. For whatever reason, defenses just
score touchdowns at this way outlier rate.

Speaker 7 (25:29):
In the Super Bowl.

Speaker 6 (25:30):
Last Super Bowl matchup, Nick Bolton returns the fumble. Jalenhurs
just dropped the ball. Basically, Nick Bolton returns for a touchdown.
And don't forget later in the game we thought he
returned a second fumble for a touchdown. That's a return
in that game. Otherwise he's MVP in that game. There
are in fifty eight Super Bowls one two defensive touchdowns.
There's been at least one in nineteen out of fifty eight,

(25:51):
so that's almost one in every three Super Bowls that
we're getting a touchdown. Is it random, Locke, It might
be fifty, it's not a big sample size. But to me,
defenses that are over prepped and scouted so that they
kind of know when to jump the pass lane and
know to go for something, and it's teams emptying the tank.
You may as well throw that pick six because you're

(26:11):
just gonna lose Super Bowl anyways unless you give it
a shot. So to me, you want to bet on
defense touchdowns somehow in the Super Bowl because this is
just a go to every year. Now this year, I
think it's a little less likely. These teams are both
very careful with the ball. They're not turning over a lot.
But that's of course, Drew of all Super Bowl teams.
That's how you get to the Super Bowl, and somehow
this thing keeps happening. So depending on the book you play,

(26:34):
pay attention how you're betting it. There's defense touchdown, there's
defense special teams touchdown, special teams a little more meated
this year. I don't need to pay to include special teams.
Usually these are interceptions. Eleven out of thirteen defense touchdowns
since two thousand, event interceptions, not fumble recoveries. In this game,
maybe a little bit less so because we're gonna get
a lot of running of course from Philadelphia. And the

(26:55):
key thing for me those twenty two defense touchdowns all
but three came by the winning team. So what I
want to do is I'm going to get aggressive. I
always love to give up some outs, get aggressive and
get the better number. The Chiefs defense to score touchdown
in a Chiefs win is plus nine to fifty. Or
you can do Eagles same thing. Eagles defense touchdown and

(27:17):
Eagles win plus one thousand. Samon, you talked about like
what's the edge, what's the way the Eagles find a
way to win? Well, very often in a game like this,
the way is the ball bounced, weird, we picked up
a fumble, we ran it in Ah Look seven points
free for us. Turns out that's a pretty good way
to flip a coin. Flip outcome. You can bet both
of those Chiefs defense touchdown in their win, Eagles defense

(27:39):
touchdown and their win together is basically like an implied
plus four thirty seven. That's nineteen percent likely that outcome
has happened a defensive touchdown by the winner twenty eight
percent of the time. So that's a pretty huge edge
in your favor. And I think two defensive MVP is
in play. We've had that almost one in six Super Bowls,

(28:00):
fifteen point five percent of the time. You can just
bet any defender MVP how many books fifteen to one
or I think you want to sprinkle.

Speaker 7 (28:07):
Some long shots.

Speaker 6 (28:08):
Nick Bolton, guy that could have won it last time,
is four hundred to one at one book. Nolan Smith,
the guy that I know we've talked about as a
sack master against those bad tackles, three hundred to one.
Linebackers are three the last four this century that have
been a defensive MVP. I just have to have some
piece of defense. I'm going to bet every single Super

(28:29):
Bowl because it hits more often than it doesn't and
the numbers don't reflect it.

Speaker 1 (28:34):
What do you think of that, Simon?

Speaker 2 (28:35):
I love it.

Speaker 4 (28:36):
I mean honestly, it's this the type of game where
that obviously could change the whole game. And I like,
if your team's gonna win. They get defensive touchdown. We
saw the last time they played. That's how the Chiefs
basically won their game.

Speaker 2 (28:46):
Right. The Eagles played a.

Speaker 4 (28:48):
Perfect first half, but did that because it was twenty
one to ten, that's seven points mattered in the end,
Like you know, Malmes woke up the second half and
that was all she wrote. So yeah, that's that's an
interesting plan. I was trying to think, who the hell
was the last special teams with the Devin Hester? Was
that the last special teams touchdown against the Colts?

Speaker 1 (29:07):
That seems like that's eighteen years ago.

Speaker 2 (29:10):
I know it was, like, is it Percy Harvin? I
was trying to think, who the hell?

Speaker 4 (29:12):
And the Super Bowl didn't It's like Brandon brings up
a great point here, that's like a dumb bet to
make special teams with the defense. You might as well
get rid of that, just go strictly defense, just because
unless you're a Hall of Famer, apparently you're not going
to score a random mass touchdown in the Super Bowl.
I mean, even Kadarius Tony got close against the Eagles,
but he didn't score.

Speaker 1 (29:30):
I don't think, I do think, I do feel like
Percy Harvin scored a touchdown, but I can't remember who
it was, four ab Seahawks.

Speaker 2 (29:38):
I guess right, Oh right, yeah, you're right. I can't
remember either. I think he did that, but we're just
making a point. That's how insanely rare it is to
score of special teams.

Speaker 1 (29:47):
Brandon, we've talked a lot about Xavier Worthy. This week.
I personally parlayed Xavier Worthy under five and a half
receptions and Xavier Worthy anytime touchdown thanks to doctor Nick Giffen.
That was four to one. So why are you laughing
at that?

Speaker 2 (30:04):
Just because I just love You're bringing this up every show.
You're just a wild man every show, absolute wild man,
every show.

Speaker 4 (30:11):
Props I haven't even given out yet, you're still bringing
up props. You've talked every show.

Speaker 1 (30:14):
So I know Brandon has a has some thoughts on
Xavier Worthy.

Speaker 6 (30:18):
Yeah, I think Xavier Worthy is in this particular match,
but I think he could be the key to the
Chiefs offensive attack. So the whole point of Fangio defense,
take away the deep, take away the middle. This particular
defense takes away tight ends and running backs really well.
Running back screens obviously, is the Andy Ree specialty. That's
a lot of stuff they're taken away. But that really

(30:39):
sets up to exactly how the Chiefs play, much to
our chagrin. We want to see Patrick Mahomes do the
stuff he used to do, but he'd stop doing the
stuff used to do because half the defense start doing
fangio defense and all the quarterbacks had to start doing
the short stuff and eating that way. So Eagles play
zone about two thirds of the snaps. They play a
lot of Cover four and Cover six more covers any

(31:00):
human in the NFL. The way you beat that scheme
is in the flats, you beat Cover three. Another thing
that he goes play a lot of with horizontal stretches. Okay, well,
who am I throwing to in the flat or getting
my speed guy in a horizontal stretch? That's zeb You're
Worthy all game long. Sixty two of his seventy catches
this season have been either short or behind the line
of scrimmage PFF grade ninety or better. On those average

(31:23):
seven and a half yards after completion. That is the
whole thing with Zavier Worthy. Now, the Chiefs took a
while to realize that they thought he was Tyreek Hill
for the first twelve weeks of this season, and he
had a twelve yards a dot. Then after that six
yard a dot, they totally changed how they've been using
him week thirteen forward, and I've been betting his overs
throughout the playoffs. On receptions in the flats alone, his

(31:46):
ePaper play is ninety ninth percentile.

Speaker 7 (31:48):
Like, this is the best.

Speaker 6 (31:49):
Weapon right now, maybe in the league or close to it,
getting it out on quick pass to The Chiefs are
the number one team on quick passes, where Xavier Worthy
is getting about a third of those for the season
last four games alone, sixteen and a half EPA added
on quick passes. So I never would have guessed this
guy who I'm about to mention would show up on
a Super Bowl show. Wondale Robinson for the Giants, to me,

(32:12):
is a key name to look at you're comparing to
Xavier Worthy, just a similar but clearly worse style player.
In both Giants games this season, he had six catches
and ten catches. Now, they didn't go very well because
it's Wondale Robinson, but he had more catches and more
targets than Malik Nabors both those games, because that's how
you attack this defense. So I love Zavier Worthy in

(32:33):
this game. Last five games, he's averaging six point four
catches a game. He's averaging forty six yards after the catch,
So I don't necessarily want to go yards here, but
I think big plays a chance to get into the
end zone get that touchdown. I love the anytime touchdown
bet for the last five we know he's going to
run the ball a time or two. A lot of

(32:53):
people I know are betting the over five and a
half rush yards. He's had akiri and at least in
fourteen game of the season, he's had five or more
yards rushing in eleven of those fourteen, so I think
that's a good way. And then my favorite way is
I'm just on the volume receptions. So over five and
a half reception is still plus money for Xavier Worthy.
That's gone up in the playoffs, but I think it's

(33:14):
still good price. And then you know me with the
escalator seven or more receptions around plus two twenty five,
eight or more plus four to twenty five. I can't
quite get there on MVP because same thing with Travis Kelcey,
who's throwing the ball on all these it's still going
to be pat getting the credit for it. So I
think if you want an MVP look for Worthy that
the upside is maybe he runs it in or maybe

(33:37):
a special teams or trick play. Okay, well bet fat.
There's a different way you can play it, bet, like
a longest rush or some other creative.

Speaker 7 (33:43):
Way to do it. Paprick is too big of a
deal to go MVP.

Speaker 6 (33:48):
I do notice though, his longest reception prop is around
twenty one yards or so, so a Nick Giffen special
here for me, negative correlated bet over five and a
half catches under twenty one longest reception Last week or
against the Bills, he had that long catch that was
probably not a catch right that the rest of side

(34:08):
it was a catch. Other than that play, he's not
gone twenty one yards or more in like seven games,
So these aren't really huge long plays. They're just zero
yard passes that he's ripping around the end for twelve yards,
fifteen yards, nine yards over and over. So I think
that's something that Chiefs will attack a lot. You can
get over on the receptions under on the longest catch

(34:29):
is plus four to eleven because it's negative correlation. So
I think just lots of fun ways to play Zavir
Worthy in this game.

Speaker 1 (34:35):
Simon, what props of yours I want to hear? Should
we be discussing right now?

Speaker 5 (34:42):
Uh?

Speaker 4 (34:42):
My favorite one is definitely both teams have successful fourth
down covent like, so basically need the Eagles converted fourth down,
Chiefs converted fourth down. Both these teams I feel like,
are going to go for higher risk, like they know
what that stake.

Speaker 2 (34:56):
Here, especially Syria. I has heard all.

Speaker 4 (34:58):
Week about that punt he did take lefelast time they played,
and not going for it on fourth down.

Speaker 2 (35:02):
No chance he doesn't go for it.

Speaker 4 (35:04):
It was minus one twenty when I told you this morning, Chat,
it's already up to minus win twenty five.

Speaker 2 (35:08):
So that's that's a number that's moving on.

Speaker 4 (35:09):
Bet three six five another one we already talked about
with Chris Raybond.

Speaker 2 (35:14):
Either team to win by exactly three points. I think
it's fun.

Speaker 4 (35:17):
It's plus four hundred, yes, And we just talked to that,
like we think the Eagles are gonna, you know, perform
well first half.

Speaker 2 (35:25):
We just don't trust them full game.

Speaker 4 (35:27):
If you like that bet, like if you just want
to take the Eagles first half, me and Chat already
said we liked the Chiefs full game I've made this bet.

Speaker 2 (35:35):
This is another number that's moving.

Speaker 4 (35:36):
The Chiefs were the Eagles, were Eagles win first half,
Chiefs to win the game was plus three six fifty
on bet three six five. It's down to plus five
to fifty now, so that number as well is moving.
So that's another way you going to try to attack this.
Where you know Mahomes I believe was Stucky or maybe
it was Chris gave an amazing stat that he is
zero for four in his career in first half against
the spread. So that's another way you can play it

(35:57):
where you know, he gets down by ten points in
the first half, he ends up winning these games mames.
So that's a fun value bet. If you're not alive better,
you can't attack that. This is another way to play
that market. Just take the Eagles first half cheaps to
win the game. That's a fun plot.

Speaker 1 (36:11):
Yeah, Stucky gave out Eagles first half. I think plus
one and a half are not exactly a win, but
plus one and a half. In the Action Network podcast
Sunday six Pack, you mentioned Super Bowl MVP a couple
of times, brand and both with defensive players and Xavier Worthy.
Why you wouldn't want to bet him for MVP. Do

(36:33):
you have MVP thoughts that are not Patrick Mahomes and
Jalen Hurts?

Speaker 7 (36:37):
Do I have MVP thoughts? Chat out?

Speaker 6 (36:38):
Always have MVP thoughts. Quarterback, obviously is who you want
here most of the time. Fifty seven percent of all
MVPs are quarterbacks. Thirteen of the last eighteen have been
just the quarterback on the winning team seventy two percent,
so about three out of four times.

Speaker 7 (36:52):
Basically that that's just what we do.

Speaker 6 (36:53):
We know that already, right if it's not a quarterback, actually,
defender is what you want most. That's why already gave
that one out ten defense. Nine receivers, no tight ends.
Notable in this one because Travis Kelcey only seven running
backs too, last one Terrell Davis nineteen ninety eight. It's
been a minute and a few since we got a
running back, so to me, I mentioned not Xavier Worthy,

(37:15):
but you gotta start the topic, kind of work your
way down here. I'm not going to bet Patrick Mahomes
win MVP, even though he very clearly is the heavy
favorite to ain MVP. It's plus one ten the Chiefs.
You can basically bet minus one now minus one ten,
so In order for that to be the right way
to bet the Chiefs. I know we all want to
sneak in the extra twenty cents of value. Patrick Mahomes
has to win MVP in ninety one percent of all

(37:36):
Chiefs victories for that to be the right bet, and
I know it feels like he's one hundred percent, but
he's not one hundred percent. Like you can literally go
through the schedule this year and say, okay, who would
have won MVP that game, and he wins MVP like
probably fourteen or fifteen of the games, which is eighty
five percent, which is a lot, and it's still not
ninety one percent. So you shouldn't bet Mahomes. There's too
much randomness there. I personally can't bet Sakuan. He has

(37:59):
been I think the Eagles MVP in something like eight
to ten games this season, way more than you'd expect
a running back to be it, including I would say
all three playoff games so far. But at plus two
to eighty, he's going to be MVP over half of
all Eagles wins for that to be the bet, and
I know that's what it feels like with him, But
no running back, we're over the last twenty six years

(38:22):
in a running back winning Super Bowl MVP, and I'm
supposed to bet that the Eagles win the game, and
over half of the time he's MVP. To me the
way I would bet MVP here, even though I'm betting
Chiefs win the Super Bowl, I think Jalen Hurts MVP
is a right play, and I think it's actually a
great way to invest in Philly and sort of hedge
against my Kansas City bet because I think the Chiefs

(38:45):
win the Super Bowl because of Jalen Hurts. But if
I'm wrong about the Chiefs win the Super Bowl, I
also think it'll be because of Jalen Hurts. I think
it'll be because Hurts did the tush push, got the touchdowns,
got the scrambles. But I think because he did what
he did last time in the Bowl. Frankly, he would
have won MVP clearly if they won that game. He
showed up as a passer. He was plus one forty

(39:07):
in the Super Bowl last time. Now he's plus three eighty.
That's because Saquon showed up and soaked up a lot
of that value for MVP. But quarterbacks win MVP seventy
two percent of the last eighteen years. He only has
to win MVP forty three percent of Eagles wins for
this to be the right bet. So to me, I
think that's just it's just value. Even though I said

(39:27):
this is the reason I'm not picking them. I think
you can be wrong about something and sometimes it's okay
to bet of what if I'm wrong about this, And
I think this is a great way to possibly be
wrong about it. Longer down the board of the other weapons,
I like Davante's sixty six to one.

Speaker 7 (39:42):
He was thirty three oh one last time. I think
that the Chiefs.

Speaker 6 (39:45):
Are going to justst and play more zone than they
usually do. Davante is the zone beater. He's had ninety
nine yards all three games against Bags, So I kind
of like that as just a dart throw late. And
I mentioned those defenders, But to me, it's three main
guys you're starting at. It's Saquon, It's Hurts, and it's Mahomes,
And only one of those numbers I think is the
right number to play.

Speaker 1 (40:06):
Some would argue not me, because I'm not crazy. Some
would argue that Super Bowl it was probably the last
time Jalen Hurts had a good game.

Speaker 7 (40:18):
I mean, it's probably the best game you ever played.

Speaker 1 (40:20):
Right, Simon, Simon, did you hear what I said?

Speaker 2 (40:22):
Yeah, you're Chicago fan. You don't know what good quarterbacks
look like.

Speaker 7 (40:28):
He does now they got Ben Jonson.

Speaker 1 (40:30):
It is interesting, you know, when you put the odds
in that context for Saquon. I bet if you asked
the average fan. And there have been studies about this,
about sort of decision making and rationale, that people's memories
of things influences and has more weight than it actually

(40:52):
does in real life. And I bet if you went
to most fans and said, was Saquon the MVP of
an Eagles win? Fifty percent of the time people would say, oh, yes,
for sure this year, when in reality he wasn't. That's
a fascinating it is while you laughing, it's fascinating.

Speaker 2 (41:14):
Oh god, quick, get to Evan.

Speaker 1 (41:20):
Not yet, Brandon, Brandon before you go, give us one
future for next season. I love your hot reads on
the Action Network podcast. When you're giving us the two
bets you're making right away seven days in advance, we
are seven months in advance. Give us a future.

Speaker 6 (41:41):
Yeah, here's the twenty twenty six hot read, a full
year in advance. So I have an article just went
out at the actionnetwork dot com on who is next
year's Eagles, Who's next year's Chiefs, next year's commanders? And
this is one we've done a few years in a row.
Last year in this article I picked as next year's Ravens.
Then the Philadelphia Eagles twenty two to one, my first

(42:02):
Super Bowl bet a year ago, because they fit a
formula of Okay, they started out ten to one last year.
They were coming off the Super Bowl berth, and they
just fell apart late. But the system was there right.
We knew what would work and what worked this year
obviously is elite defense, devastated rushing attack. Okay, So who
are next year's Eagles? My first Super Bowl bet for
the new year San Francisco forty nine ers. It fits

(42:24):
the Eagles formula. Kyle Shanahan has been in the NFC
Championship Game five of the last nine years. There is
no Patrick Mahomes in the NFC, but Kyle Shanahan might
be as close as we get over in the NFC
to just showing up year after year. Since they acquired
Christian McCaffrey, they've been an offensive juggernaut and nothing changed
this year. Nobody magically learned how to stop them. They

(42:47):
just stopped being healthy. Ever, McCaffrey played four games, I
missed ten, Trent Williams miss seven, Hurdy Deebo Kittle all
miss multiple games. So the offense is gonna be great.
We know that about them. And then you get the
fan here, Robert Sala coming back from the Jets, coming
home to get rid of Nick Sorens and the failed
defensive coordinator. Sala's defense has been allowed top five fewest

(43:12):
yards five of the last six seasons. That defense under
Sala is going to be way better. And we saw
even this year, as bad as the Jets were a
laughing stock, Sala left, that defense fell apart like they
were still decent defense. He leaves and they just completely
went to shambles after that. This year, the Niners, even
in a season from hell, still finish top ten offense,

(43:34):
still finish almost top ten defense by DVAA. They went
two and six and one score games. Flip those results
that we know are mostly luck driven unless you're the
Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. Just flip those results. They win
the division at ten and seven, even in the year
from hell, to me The Niners are right there with
the top five. Their price at number six, but kind

(43:55):
of a distance six at every book. They to me,
are probably the favorite in the I see you right now.
Knowing what we know about Sala on the defense and
everything on the offense, they'll be right in the Mikes.
Twenty to one Niners is my first super Bowl pick
for next season.

Speaker 2 (44:10):
Wow.

Speaker 1 (44:11):
I like it. It's exciting. Check out all of Brandon's
picks for super Bowl fifty on his super Bowl Best
Bets episode of the Action Network podcast with Evan Abrams,
who we will get too shortly. We got a little
bit of work left to do along with Super Bowl
articles out now at actionnetwork dot com. Thank you Brandon Anderson.

(44:32):
Great work. Uh Simon, guess what what? It's time for
the Big Balls Better than weekt Our, Last one of
the Year, presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls,
Tommy John has the support. Great games start with great

(44:53):
underwear and Tommy John makes the greatest look. We've talked
about the Chiefs, We've talked about the money line, We've
talked about the side. The money line was my exec decision.
The side with Simon says we're going with the total
it's moved down. It was about fifty to fifty and
a half, then forty nine and a half down to

(45:15):
forty eight and a half. A lot of places you
can still get a forty nine at bet three six five. Simon,
this is a big balls back because I think we're
both a little bit antsy about it.

Speaker 4 (45:25):
Yeah, and it's really probably the most heavy of the
game for splitswise, of the public versus professionals.

Speaker 2 (45:32):
Right, it's just only professionals.

Speaker 4 (45:35):
There's the only people I've talked to you, especially walking
on the sports books, talking to different fans, especially Eagles fans,
They're just like, oh, we put up fifty five last week,
we're getting at least forty against this chief defense. In
the back of mind, I'm just like, yeah, that's not
how this works at all. So yeah, I get why
the public is so excited about it, But me and
you talked about it's.

Speaker 2 (45:53):
A key number still, forty nine.

Speaker 4 (45:55):
Please grab that while you still can, because the fear
is right now that this professional money is gonna keeping
this down to forty eight and a half. Forty eight,
so we're crossing some key numbers here. You want to
get that forty nine. It's a big deal to get it.

Speaker 1 (46:07):
The one thing that worries me is we see so
often with these Super Bowls things go crazy in the
second half. You know, the Chiefs have been down ten points,
seven points whatever in multiple Super Bowls, low scoring super Bowls,
ten to three, whatever it was, and then they come

(46:28):
back and in the second half five six touchdowns by
both teams. How do you feel about under twenty four
and a half in the first half.

Speaker 2 (46:38):
I don't mind it. I mean I like it, and
I bet it.

Speaker 4 (46:41):
And you know, doctor Nick came on here talked about
how the chief second half unders. I've been a cash
Kyle these last two years and we'veing bet in that
as well. So I'll be honest with you, Chad, it's
never fun doing it. We're just playing the numbers, and
this is a long term winner, like the biggest one
of my life. We literally hit the under last year
a game that went to overtime. When we hit it
by half a point, that's right, So that might be

(47:02):
peak for us. It's usually, in my opinion, won't be
that close. Like you to hit this over, you're gonna
need a ton of luck on both sides. In the
red zone, like both these teams make their money, make
a team's kick field goals. On the same side, Eagles
have been inconsistent this year in the red zone. Same
with the Chiefs, Like, I mean even the playoffs shot.
How many times are you losing your damn mind when

(47:22):
Hurts would take that sack and get out of field
goal range and they're punting. You do that against the Chiefs,
you're dead, like you're not gonna You're not hitting it over.
So I just think it's an overreaction by the public
way too much. There's still a ton of value in
this under in my opinion.

Speaker 1 (47:37):
All Right, we're going with the under as our big
balls bet of the week. Simon, what a wild season.
We've had so many ups and downs since Week one.
Scant twenty three weeks ago, and right there holding us up,
supporting us every step of the way. We're two crucial parties.

(47:59):
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Speaker 2 (48:58):
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Speaker 6 (50:27):
All right, Foxhole, you know me, regardless of what's going on,
I'm a Foxhole guy.

Speaker 7 (50:31):
I commit to a team, I commit to a city.

Speaker 2 (50:33):
I'm a Foxhole guy.

Speaker 1 (50:34):
We're going with Saquon Barkley. Under his total rushing yards
of one hundred and twelve, the number has been coming down.
Ray Bound has this power? Has this projected at closer
to one oh six Kerner's at one ten. I think
a lot of the stuff if everyone listened to Tuesday,
we were talking a lot about leaning into under offensive

(50:55):
yardage totals. We especially were looking at the under total
rushing yardage total and like obviously siquan to go under
one hundred and twelve. Simon also mentioned a really fun
one both teams to be successful fourth down minus one
twenty five now at bet three six five, but Fox
Oil was sick one Barkley under one hundred and twelve

(51:16):
rushing yards Simon, your biggest bets.

Speaker 4 (51:20):
Biggest bets, definitely in the under. That's my biggest position
image could you chap four?

Speaker 2 (51:24):
Came on?

Speaker 4 (51:25):
Like, I wish I could just take this week off
because I hate going against my favorite team, the Eagles,
But it's lining up that way, pretty heavy on the
chief side, pretty heavy on the under. When it comes
to the prop market, Definitely that fourth down one's a
big one.

Speaker 2 (51:40):
Will there be a two pointer?

Speaker 4 (51:42):
I bet pretty heavy on And you know Chad knows,
my favorite bet is usually one offensive lineman score a touchdown.
I didn't take it this year just because both these
teams aren't. I haven't really been in that style this season,
Like the year we hit it with when it was McVeigh.
We saw we kind of inside info that McVeagh have
been practicing a two weeks lead up to that. Well,
I don't have any great tips like that, but if

(52:02):
you want to, if you want to bet any other
any other player to make a pass attempt, I believe
it's plus.

Speaker 2 (52:06):
Two six, that's always a fun one as well.

Speaker 4 (52:07):
So there's a lot of fun props out there, obviously,
and as we get closer to game time, I'll try
to tweet more out as well.

Speaker 1 (52:14):
Definitely, I am heavily invested in the Chiefs money line
and also Patrick Mahomes under thirty six and a half
pass attempts, which is basically correlated. If you think the
Chiefs are going to win, it's likely going to be
because they're holding a lead and not passing very often.
All Right, Finally, finally, as Simon has requested, we are

(52:38):
getting to Evan Abrams, our director of research. He's got
a brand new article up on actionnetwork dot com. Be
sure to check that out super Bowl specific. Evan, you
get the last word, brother.

Speaker 2 (52:50):
The last word With Evan Abrams.

Speaker 8 (52:54):
We're finished talking what's up guys for I'm just going
to start off the top here a note on something
Brandon said and I hate to agree with him because
I kind of do all the time, but we are
podcast partners, so it's okay.

Speaker 9 (53:04):
But the Barkley MVP odds is so fascinating. So each
of the last twenty one Super Bowls since two thousand
and three, which is when we have data, had QB's
one to two in odds, So Barkley would be the
shortest odds and first to be one to two other
than a quarterback, which is kind of crazy considering Marshaun
Lynchlairer Fitzgerald, Shawn Alexander all in that span. So fascinating there.

(53:27):
My first note is from our favorite Canadian mister Gallant.
So in each of the Kansas City Chiefs three Super
Bowl wins, four Chiefs one in each has scored a
touchdown at plus five hundred odds or higher Mahomes twenty twenty,
Sky Moore twenty twenty three, Cadarius twenty twenty three, and
McCall Hardman in twenty four. So right now, that actually
leads a bunch of options, Hopkins, Juju, p Ryan Watson,

(53:51):
even Chiefs defense or options. My bet probably there would
be Juju fourth most routes and pass snaps in the
Conference championship and actually fourth most routes in the playoffs
for the Chiefs.

Speaker 3 (54:02):
He's getting just a lot of looks there.

Speaker 9 (54:04):
The other thing that's kind of crazy, Hollywood's aid Dot
averaged up. The target in the playoffs is almost twenty
yards downfield, so getting a lot of deep looks. So
those are the two there, any thoughts before I keep going?
I got a bunch of bets here.

Speaker 1 (54:15):
My only thoughts are keep fucking going. I can't get
enough of what you're saying.

Speaker 3 (54:19):
Ac running back debay to me is a large discussion.

Speaker 9 (54:23):
So Hunt out snap Pachecko in each of the last
four games four point one yards per carry to three
point zero even percent of carries three yards or more,
fifty eight percent for Hunt, forty four percent for Pachecko.
So I'm gonna try to believe that Hunt's going to
get the majority of carries here, which is going to
go to these two bets. So two long shots first
to twenty yards in the game, Kareem Hunt is plus

(54:45):
four point fifty, which I think is intriguing. Obviously, Casey's
starting out with the ball would be nice, but four
first carry first quarter carries against Buffalo in the Houston game.
They actually started with Pacheco, but he went minus one
six yards, one yard and then he was done. And
then Pittsburgh, which is the game before that, Hunt gets
three first quarter carries, so I think him getting a

(55:06):
few chunk plays four yards, six yards, eight yards to
get to that twenty before, like Barkley, is intriguing. The
second bet is him to just score two touchdowns in
this game. Everyone's betting on him to score one touchdown.
He scored a touchdown in four straight games. He's actually
scored a touchdown on all six of his playoff games,
which is getting close to a record. But look at
this Casey's carries inside the five yard line this season,

(55:29):
Hunt has seventeen, the rest of Kansas City has eleven.
And then you think about just reliability. I mean, Pachecko
and Hunt both haven't fumbled this year, but if you
look at Hunt, he hasn't fumbled since twenty twenty one.
So I feel like in this type of game, they're
going to rely on him. Andy Reid also loves him.
He's a great story. I kind of see him getting
a lot of love here. So two touchdowns at ten

(55:50):
to one is my other bet with Kareem.

Speaker 1 (55:52):
Hunt nice, I like it, love it all.

Speaker 9 (55:55):
Right, Saquon Barkley. So I'm looking at this at two
different angles. The Score's gonna hate me for bringing this
out because they've actually been talking about this, and I
was upset that they brought it up. But Bed three
six five has his longest rush attempt in the game.
He was actually minus one oh five like about two
days ago. It's now up to minus one fifty for
him to have the longest rush attempt in the game.

(56:17):
So even if Kansas City bottles him up and has
like eight man boxes where he can struggle, the options
for him to stay atop this market, I just think
are a plenty. I'll just regular season, he was eleven
and five for just Philly in terms of having the
longest rush in their games, and ten and six in
the game itself, two and one in the playoffs are
having the longest rush. And then if you just look

(56:39):
at Philly's part of the field, because Kansas City really
struggles in that second level yards and open field yards
like they get small chunks, which I think helps play
to this. If you look at Philly had ninety plays
of ten plus yards on the ground, This year, thirty
six everyone else but Saquon. Fifty four for Saquon, So
I just feel like there's so many outs here. I

(57:00):
I still like it in the minus one to fifty
range and then the other prop, which is a little
bit contradicting. But I heard you guys say you like
Saquon under his full game prop.

Speaker 3 (57:10):
I think a more interesting one is first half.

Speaker 9 (57:12):
It's fifty eight and a half in the first half
this season, he has eleven rushes of thirteen plus yards.

Speaker 3 (57:18):
Four of those eleven came just versus Washington.

Speaker 9 (57:22):
So to me, I think this line is just a
little bit inflated, and I think we're getting a good
price considering also he is a second half monster, most carried,
most rushing yards, most ten plus yards, all in the
second half, and Casey not lately. They've been struggling with
explosive runs lately, but only allowed forty two of at

(57:43):
least ten yards, which is the fourth fewest in the
NFL all year.

Speaker 3 (57:46):
So I do believe Spags.

Speaker 9 (57:47):
Is going to focus on him, which is going to
help that early bet, and then I think he find
some longer runs to cash our first bet.

Speaker 3 (57:54):
In the second half.

Speaker 9 (57:55):
It's really going between two bets, but I kind of
like the value on both.

Speaker 1 (58:00):
I like the value on everything you say, Evan. I
think some would say your value to this podcast is enormous.

Speaker 9 (58:09):
I was worried when you guys are going through some
of these bets to be on your side this one, unfortunately,
which is I have one more after this, which kind
of just backs up Simon, But this one's not with you, guys,
but it's just another angle. So it's called reversal of fortune.
Mahomes has trailed at the half and all four of
his Super Bowl appearances. Stucky said that Simon said that earlier,
but this year he's actually led at the half in

(58:30):
eight straight games. So I believe the storyline each year
in the Super Bowl of a case comeback just is
a little noisy, Like obviously, the Hurts fumble really helped
Casey get back in the game last time. So I
feel like Casey has had nine first quarter drives in
the Super Bowl, five punts, two touchdowns, one field goal,
and a missfield goal. And the thing that I think

(58:51):
is actually interesting, Philly trailing this year actually happened less
plays than Kansas City when they run no huddle, second
highest rate in the NFL behind the Commanders, and they
still run it at the highest rate in the NFL
when they're behind. So I kind of feel like Casey
wins the first half, Philly wins the full game is
seven or eight to one, depending on the book, while

(59:13):
that same bet, if you flip it is six to
one even five point fifty for Kansas City. So I
know everyone likes Kansas City to win the game, but
I do feel like a strong Kansas City start, which
has been different than we've seen before, and Philly figuring
it out in the second half. Because think about this,
Eagles have a rock bottom forty percent pass rate when
leading by at least a score. It jumps to fifty

(59:35):
eight percent when trailing, So I do feel like they're
going to run the ball when they're trailing and even
pass it even more and get back in the game.
So I kind of like that price it's between seven
and eight to one.

Speaker 4 (59:45):
No, I think it's interesting take these as My view
is the Chiefs basically not that the Afs does have
good pass rush, but he's basically every year he makes
the Super Bowl, he's facing arguably the best pass russ
in the NFC. Right the Eagles two years and the
forty nine ers, and even that Tampa team had a
great pass rus.

Speaker 2 (01:00:02):
So that to me all excuse where.

Speaker 4 (01:00:03):
It's like Mahomes goes from doing our helly once against
an easy pass Russ in the AFC to being like,
holy shit, these are really good, really good pass us
in the first half and it takes them a little
bit to adjust to it.

Speaker 2 (01:00:13):
So interesting view from Evan.

Speaker 4 (01:00:15):
Obviously it's a nothing trend, right, It's four games, so
I get his point of like, it doesn't really make
much sense, but I just love the angle of Eagles
first half, Chiefs full game.

Speaker 1 (01:00:25):
All right, listen, this was our super Bowl podcast. Thank
you Brandon, thank you Evan Simon and I are a
men filled with the men's gratitude for both you and
Gifford and Matt Mitchell and everybody who listened all season long.
We are rolling with the Chiefs into the Super Bowl.
We are on the under. That's our big balls. We

(01:00:48):
will be back with our post super Bowl wrap up
after the game that Monday. As a reminder, the Favorite
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(01:01:30):
restrictions apply. Salmon and I will return with our next
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Special time Monday afternoon neon Eastern. We're going to recap
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