January 30, 2025 • 43 mins
Patrick Mahomes has played 50 total games at home or on a neutral field in November or later. He's won an incredible 44 of those 50 games. This is just one of the marvelous statistical nuggets Action Network Director of Research Evan Abrams unearths for us in this episode. Together with hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter, Evan goes through his top trends and data finds for Super Bowl LIX, kicking off in New Orleans next Sunday. #Volume #herd
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
I am Chad Mollman of the Action Network. I'm in
our Action Network studio, but it is a Tommy John studio.
I'm joined as always by my cost my companion, mikem
Padre might be a FF professional vetter, Simon Hunter.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
Ed O Simon, and I am in my Tommy John studio.
Thank you, Tommy John, my brother.
Speaker 1 (00:32):
Yeah, to see you one day closer. Today is a
big episode. It's our super Bowl Trends episode with our
favorite director of research and Favorites mainstay, the man who
signs jerseys at our live events, Evan Abrams. Will bring
him on in a second. Next Tuesday, We've got Chris
(00:53):
Raybond and Sean Cerner around to discuss their favorite props.
And then Thursday, we will of course nailed and discuss
our best bets with Brandon Anderson, who crushed it all
season long on the Sunday episode of the Action Network
Pod with Evan. His hot reads were always two bets
that I religiously made. We're gonna give it our Foxhole,
our Tommy John big Balls Simon's Biggest Bets will play
(01:17):
scoot Roulette all that jazz.
Speaker 3 (01:19):
The road to the super Bowl is long and pointless.
I mean, when do you think about it? Football is
so great, but now the two conference champs must survive
a harrowing bye week that no one enjoys five weeks.
Speaker 2 (01:37):
Bronco Negersky didn't get no bye weeks and now he's dead.
Speaker 1 (01:41):
Well maybe they were a good thing for now, we
got to focus on the trends. As a reminder, the
Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three six five and
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(02:03):
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or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions
(02:25):
restrictions apply. All right, we're going to skip sharp calls
this week as well. We did a little bit of
it on Tuesday. We'll dig in more when we're closer
to the game a week from today. First, let's bring
in Evan Abrams.
Speaker 4 (02:38):
Director of research.
Speaker 1 (02:39):
He's got all the trends, all the data, everything that
we rely on so much during the season. Evan is
going to lay it out for us in one big palette.
Let's go, brother, give me your first best trend.
Speaker 4 (02:56):
Well, first of all, Chad, Hi, how are you This?
This one panders directly to you, though, So we started
off with our biggest contract.
Speaker 1 (03:05):
Like, by the way, there's only one person who likes
pandering more than me. I'm not going to make it
a political show, but we all know who gets Well.
Speaker 4 (03:12):
Yeah, we're here to kind of teasey a little bit
because this is the one you're going to You've been
really looking for, so only betting the best teams is
something you kind of talk about all the time this year,
you're talking about it with the Chiefs and the Eagles,
which is a ticket you had in the preseason them
meeting in the Super Bowl. Yeah, but this is an
interesting thing and I think it says a little bit
more about the current state of the NFL. Let's call
(03:34):
it the last decade. So Chad talked a lot about
taking the strategy of all twelve to one teams or
shorter in terms of Super Bowl favorites and taking a
round robin approach. So so I spoke with Matt and
basically we dope and we dived into this. So I
just want to start there and say, if you're feeling bold,
and every August for the last ten years, you bet
(03:55):
every single combination of teams at twelve to one or
shorter to win, basically parlayed all the conference title odds
combos in that span. It's won four times in sixty
seven total combinations. Now, that would be this year's Chiefs
and Eagles, Chiefs Niners, Chiefs, Bucks and Pats Rams. That's
the four times it's hit Now of the sixty seven
(04:15):
total combos, we've had four winners. So we've had sixty
three losers at one unit per bet. The four winners
paid about eighty four units minus to sixty three losers.
You'd be up about twenty one units doing this round
robin strategy last decade. Now, what if you weren't feeling
so bold, what about just straight flat betting every twelve
(04:37):
to one team or shorter. So over the last decade,
that's fifty six total teams, so fifty six bets. It's
won nine times, including this year, and it's lost forty
seven times. So with Casey or Philly pending, the eight
winners paid out sixty five units minus to forty seven
losing bets. If you did this blind, you'd be up
(04:58):
about eighteen units holding the Philly and KC tickets now
for what it's worth as well. And this is just
obviously more about the current state of the NFL twenty fourteen,
which is one year back of this sample size. New
England plus six fifty one at all, twenty thirteen, Seattle
eight to one, one at all. Now, twenty twelve is
where we get a string of long shots, starting with
(05:19):
Baltimore who wanted eighteen to one. But basically since that
twenty thirteen year, we have consistently seen the Brady's, the
Mahomes and just the favorites every single year, Chad. So
your strategy so far, so good?
Speaker 1 (05:33):
Well, really, Evan, I can only claim that it's your
strategy because I basically just did what you told me
to do, because I believe the stat is And now
it's eleven of the past twelve seasons the teams who
had odds of twelve to one or less were in
(05:57):
the Super Bowl. They were the matchup.
Speaker 4 (06:00):
No, so it's the super Bowl champion. A bunch of
those years you had the other team in the mix.
So only four times last decade have both teams actually
fit your trend where both were twelve to one or
shorter in the Super Bowl odds and we basically had
to parlay their conference odds. Does that make sense because
you're basically taking every team that's twelve to one or
(06:22):
shorter to win the Super Bowl yep, and then you're
taking their conference odds, parlaying them together and basically getting
a ticket where yours was like twenty eight to one. Right, yes, yeah,
so this one I believe was like twenty seven to
one using these odds, but basically you'd be around those units.
But truthfully, I mean, I'm curious what Simon thinks like
because everyone loves these long shots and basically it hasn't
(06:43):
hit up one year in the past twelve or thirteen
years in the NFL, and this is a one game
sample when you're not even dealing with a series. It's
it's to honestly a little bit crazy.
Speaker 1 (06:52):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (06:53):
My view I think ivan to agree with this is
I take long shots the hedge and I've missed the
two best ones in the last four or five years.
I missed on the Bengals one hundred and fifty to one,
and I obviously missed on the Commanders this year. One
hundred and fifty one. That's that's a position, right, that's
where you want to go. You want to take those
type of bets. You know, this a great one this
upcoming year. I fucking hate us Chad for saying that.
(07:15):
I guess who's one hundred and one right now or
one hundred and fifty to one, I should say Panthers.
So you think they can make the next step they
get the right guys, that's the type of team you
gotta do. You got to you gotta do it on
a team that no one believes in the Joe Burrow one.
That was a flucush one, right, he's coming off a
knee injury after his rookie year. The Commanders one, obviously
no one saw coming, right. I didn't see too many
people flashing their one hundred and fifty one tickets they had.
(07:38):
I know that one guy had uh was at circle.
I forget what book it was. It was basically bet
two k to win five hundred k on the Commanders
didn't come through. I'm sure that pro headed it out,
but yeah, what happens telling you right now is the
league has gotten not we want to say stale, but
it kind of has. Right. It's the top dogs, and
even coming this year, Chad was going through his list
(07:58):
and I was like, I wouldn't put Houston on that one, right.
I remember saying the child was like, don't don't do Houston.
Stay away from them, and I just don't think they
have the pieces. And I think I also gave him
bad advice too. I said I wouldn't do the Lions
coming to this year. I thought there was too much
bad juju after they blew that lead with golf the
year before. The forty nine Ers got very lucky that
one worked out because for a minute the midway through
the season, I was like, I just cost Chad a
(08:19):
ton of money. The Lions are a juggernaut. So I'm
with you on that, Evan. I would love to hear
what you have on Patrick. Mahomes actually gave out a
trend I thought was a good one that I was
wrong on my man. Evan helped me out. I thought
Mahomes was fifty to zero on Dome games. He is
fourteen oh one in Dome games. So still pre insane frience.
I know we got we gotta be truth by they'll
(08:40):
correct ourselves. Fourteen oh one Mahomes and Dome games in
his career are pretty.
Speaker 4 (08:43):
Insane, absolutely insane, and yeah, let me these are the
stats to me when you talk about Mahomes in the
Super Bowl, they I was talking about this before we
even went live here. They feel all made up like
this Legit feels like you put that stat out there
where someone's like twenty five and two and everyone you
know thinks you're making it up. It's just ridiculous. So
let me just kind of go through some of these.
(09:04):
In January February, Mahomes has played eighteen games at home
or on a neutral field, He's sixteen and two straight
up his losses against Burrow and Brady. If you throw
in November and December, he's forty four and six straight up.
Just the playoffs, Mahomes has been an underdog or a
favorite under a field goal eight times. He's eight and
(09:25):
no straight up and ats in those games. Now, when
you talk about on the field success and basically these
games where maybe it's gone back and forth a little bit,
Mahomes has trailed in the fourth quarter or overtime nine
total playoff games. He's won six forced overtime in two
of those games. Mahomes has played twenty games in the playoffs.
He's seventeen and three straight up eighty five percent minimum
(09:49):
ten games in the playoffs starts. That win percentage is
second best since nineteen fifty behind just bart Starr, who
is nine and one just ten playoff games.
Speaker 1 (09:58):
And I'll remind, as I did on Tuesday, because I
think Simon gave this out on Tuesday, bart Starr is
the only quarterback to go three straight because remember he
had an NFL championship and then they won those first
two Super Bowls. So that's that's the company. He's keeping
on that one.
Speaker 4 (10:17):
Yeah, just trophies, troph trophy names. At this point, it's
ridiculous he's winning Hallis because you know he's meeting Alice.
It's stupid. Let's look at his entire career away from home.
Mahomes have started twenty six games away from home as
either an underdog or a favorite of three points or
less twenty one four and one against a spread eighty
(10:38):
four percent in those games. I'll say that one again
because that's actually ridiculous. Entire career away from home, twenty
six games away from home as an underdog or a
favorite of three or less twenty one four and one
eighty four percent.
Speaker 1 (10:52):
And then Christ Simon, we are just so setting ourselves
up to be crushingly humiliated like they. You know, it's
like we are not the people who lean into stats
like these when it is the higher profile quarterback and
(11:16):
the favorite. It's just not who we are. We are
the people who can't go three weeks without mentioning in
the Carolina Panthers, even when the Panthers haven't played in
a month. Like the fact that we have invested the
way we have on Patrick Mahomes is just teeing us
up to be on the wrong side. I just got it.
(11:39):
I have to say. I have to say that out loud.
Do you feel I am now mushing us? Are you
with me when you hear these things? Like when I
hear these things, that makes me uncomfortable, doesn't make me
feel better about my position.
Speaker 2 (11:52):
No, I only worry about you mushing regular season playoff.
I don't think you can mush it. There's too much
going on in the playoffs for Chad's mush. But no,
we talked about, like Evan said on the top of
the show, these stats don't sound real when you talk
about homes because we've never seen it before. And it's
what we keep talking about. The models don't get it right.
Computer models can't get it because it's it doesn't sound
(12:12):
real what he does. And it's the same thing with Brady,
like you're getting a once in a lifetime generational talent
that just breaks all the rules, all the trends, and yeah,
just hearing these numbers. Even like Evan, even though he
told us these don't sound real but they're real, they
still don't sound real, right. The fact that he is
just reading off all these stats where it's twenty one
and four, eight and oh, sixteen and two. It's like,
(12:33):
holy shit, man, this kid is just so incredible. Twenty
nine years old too, only twenty nine.
Speaker 1 (12:38):
Yeah, that one away from home is as an underdog,
is ub sir.
Speaker 2 (12:47):
Yeah, he's agreed.
Speaker 4 (12:48):
He's the grim Reaper and everyone kind of talks about
it in these situations. But when you're winning like that
neutral and away, and you know, even his losses and
it's weird you look at him most some of them
are home, they're just eggs. Sometimes during the regular season,
when he goes away from home, he becomes a killer.
Speaker 3 (13:05):
Great teams aren't always great, they're just great when they
have to do.
Speaker 4 (13:12):
And that's why those records seem so crazy. I told
this to Simon and Okay, so he's five and zero
neutral field, which we get, I mean the Super Bowls,
plus he's played there in other situations. But the thing
that's crazy about it is twenty eighteen. And this is
the stat that kind of blows me away. So since
twenty eighteen, entering the fourth quarter overtime down one possession,
(13:34):
one to eight points, Chiefs have had twelve drives. They've
scored on eleven of them, eleven of twelve drives down
one score, They've scored eleven times out of twelve drives
twenty eighteen in the playoffs, all other teams are like
five of eleven, three of nine, two of nine. I mean,
he's doing things even when trailing. That's just absolutely ridiculous.
(13:55):
So that's my Mahomes stat. That's why.
Speaker 1 (13:59):
That's why you with him, is because you have to
because of that exact scenario. We say it all the time,
announcers say it. It's become cliche, but it's true. At
the end of the game, do you want to be
on Patrick Mahomes or against Patrick Mahomes if he has
the ball in his hand and they need to score
(14:19):
to win. That's it. That's how you're betting this game,
you know what I mean. It's just it is asurd.
I can't say it enough.
Speaker 4 (14:29):
And that was definitely part of the analysis against Buffalo.
I mean, to be fair, a lot else happened in
that game, but in the end, I mean, he was
stone cold. And the other one we can talk about
with Mahomes but also has to do with Andy Reid
is basically rest. I mean, we know how good Andy
Reid is, but the combo together is actually pretty crazy,
and it's another stat which just feels made up. But
during the season, Mahomes has played thirty four games on
(14:52):
extended rest since twenty nineteen, so that's basically eight days
or more. So it's not like a Sunday to Sunday.
It would be more than that. He's one thirty of
those thirty four games straight up. So thirty and four
losses to Brady, Matt Ryan, Jalen Hurts, and Aidan O'Connell
again one Jalen Hurts, which is funny, but thirty and
four just absolutely stupid stuff.
Speaker 1 (15:14):
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(16:04):
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Speaker 5 (16:08):
That is, today's final warnings.
Speaker 1 (16:12):
Must be in today. All right, Evan, By the way,
you have one job make me and Silent feel better,
so don't make me feel bad.
Speaker 4 (16:21):
Well, okay, so some of this information. I'm just a
man who delivers, all right. I don't fully love everything,
but I think some of the numbers on some of
these are interesting. So let's give you one trend and
let's see your thoughts on it, because I think you
and I, especially in all the shows that you and
I have done together, sample size is something that's important
of a lot of these. So last Sunday, the Eagles
(16:42):
rolled Washington and the Chiefs had a close win against Buffalo.
So the question is is there anything we can glean
from that? So the Eagles scored fifty five points in
the Conference championship, the most in that round in NFL history.
Only two other teams have scored more than forty five
points in a conference championship. Bills did it in ninety
one and then lost the Super Bowl. Panthers did it
in twenty sixteen, then also lost the Super Bowl. So
(17:05):
ten total teams have scored forty plus points in a
conference championship game. They're three and seven in the Super Bowl.
So another one and I'll add on top of it,
and then I'll get your thought, which is Eagles beat
the Commanders by thirty two points. Teams win by double
digits in a conference championship round facing a team who
did not three and six straight up and against the
(17:26):
spread super Bowl since two thousand, failing to cover by
nine point five points per game, which would tell you
they're probably a bigger favorite in that spot, which I
could look back and look. But if you're winning by
double digits and then you're an underdog in the game,
that probably doesn't happen often, but to me, it does
probably speak on a little bit of competition. So I'll
get your thoughts on that and then we can kind
(17:47):
of move on. But both both of those trends kind
of telling you that the conference championship is a little
bit of a hold on weight.
Speaker 1 (17:54):
Before you act quick, yeah, exc I mean you go ahead.
Speaker 2 (17:58):
I agree with it, Like just theve not knowing those trends,
just the thinking of it. It's like, how often do
we see a team play their best game of the
year and then totally have a letdown the following game, Right,
It's just every one game you go from everything is
going perfectly the well, everything's moving smoothly, you're getting turnovers,
you're scoring tons of touchdowns, not kicking field goals, and
then the next week everything feels harder, right like it.
(18:20):
You know, my buddy I went to the book with
he was on Washington. He turns to me, after that
first drive that Washington had, he said was exactly what
Brady was saying. Everything felt like it was so much
harder on that first drive than it was against Detroit.
They did to earn every yard than it was against Detroit.
And that's how football can be, right, do you have
the right match with the right team, it can be easy,
(18:41):
and once you get once, it feels easy and you
have confidence. It's the opposite for the other team, right,
they're losing a confidence and they see how hard it
is to stop you. That's that's it to me. What
really stands up there was the Eagles are coming off
their easiest game in my opinion, I've ever seen them play, right,
I've never seen them dominate that game. Obviously, football hasn't easy.
It's the most points scored in a conference championship game.
(19:01):
So I think that's what Evan's kind of telling you people.
It's like Eagles just have the best game of their life.
You expect them to have a letdown game and then
going to get some Mahomes team. They're just strays and arrow,
same old Mahomes win and by three, close game and
one in the fourth quarter. That wasn't their best game, right,
that was just another Mahomes India Reid game. So that's
what I'm definitely taking away from what Evans telling us there.
Speaker 1 (19:24):
Yeah, I also take away from it. During the regular season,
it's almost like an auto fade on the team that
wins by you know, four plus touchdown, you immediately want
to look in the other direction.
Speaker 2 (19:38):
Now, again to Evan, unless it's Detroit during the regular season.
Speaker 1 (19:41):
Right exactly to Evans point, Normally that team the next
week is a huge favorite. They're not an underdog. So
there was a little bit of a difference here, But
to me, it actually speaks to that there is an
opportunity this team is at the top of the market.
I wonder if this game opens with the Chiefs as
(20:04):
even bigger favorites. Maybe they are two point favorites if
the Eagles don't crush the Commanders the way they do,
especially because the Commanders were the public side in that game,
So the people who were betting on the Commanders are
going to see the Eagles as being even better then
they might have believed they were. That you know, you
might even be getting half a point of value from
(20:26):
a bookmaker point of view on the Chiefs right now.
Speaker 2 (20:29):
Yeah, speaking of the Eagles, do you have any trends
about them after the buye week of Oh?
Speaker 4 (20:33):
Man, So this one's just strange, and I think a
little bit of momentum has something to do with this one.
But let me lay it out. So, the Chiefs had
a bye week entering the playoffs, the Eagles didn't play
in the wildcard round. How much impact has the buye
been even this late into the playoffs entering the Super
Bowl and obviously been playing for two plus weeks already.
In the Super Bowl era, teams that had a buy
(20:54):
entering the playoffs facing a team who did play in
the wildcard game or who did not have a by
four and twelve straight up two thirteen and one against
the spread, which would be very, very bad for the
bye week Chiefs in that situation. I think the thing
you can only really glean from this is that, like
taking that buy doesn't give you as much momentum, because
(21:17):
we talk about momentum entering a Super Bowl a lot,
but to me, this one just feels like some weird noise.
I don't know what to make of.
Speaker 1 (21:23):
It feels like weird noise. It feels like there shouldn't
be a momentum factor because both teams are getting two
weeks of rest and yeah, you know, I don't know.
It's not a huge sample set, but it's the only one.
It's the only one that we have. I don't know
that the next twenty six times this happens, it won't
(21:44):
be flipped.
Speaker 4 (21:45):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (21:46):
Back to make sense of it, and my view of
it is football is all about rhythm and timing. So
the Chiefs here have played what two games are their
starter is now going to be for a month and
a half. Yeah yeah, so that to me that does
add up to a or you know, that is a
big deal that you have a week off play two
games and you have another week off, so that that
(22:06):
definitely is gonna be a part of it.
Speaker 4 (22:07):
Right.
Speaker 2 (22:07):
The team's just not in a rhythm, not in sync.
But what Chad just mentioned here is, you know, Mahomes,
they're always in rhythm, right. It just when you watch
him play, even last year against the forty nine ers,
he was in a rhythm for that whole first half.
Once he got a rhythm in that game, it totally
flipped the switch. Once he gets going. I don't think
they punted the rest of the game right once he
got going against the foreigners defense. So that that to me,
(22:29):
if that makes sense when you break it down like that,
then yeah, these teams come out of rhythm. They're not,
you know, not not ready for that game speed because
they've just been practicing against themselves and not going full speed.
But we talk all the time, Mahomes. If anyone's gonna
go against that trend, it's it's he's definitely got it
back in that spot.
Speaker 1 (22:49):
Yeah, that that one feels sorry, That one feels I
don't know. I'm not buying it, and I'm not buying
it because I I don't want to buy it, Like
I don't I don't I want the confirmation and buy us.
I'm buying it. It just doesn't feel like a thing yet,
doesn't feel like we know enough.
Speaker 4 (23:05):
Yeah, the four and twelve throws me off. The two
thirteen and one could have been something to do with
the points spread, but four and twelve kind of confirms
it's not so little noisy for me. Don't know what
to make of.
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(23:34):
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Matt Mitchell huzzah. They're just they get better everyone. They're
(25:01):
little short story gems.
Speaker 2 (25:03):
Never know where you're going with them, never.
Speaker 1 (25:05):
Dude, this is the joy. I don't know where I'm
going with them either. I am finding it out as
I read it. Literally, I don't know what's going to
happen next. This is the beauty of working with Matt Mitchell.
He is a creative powerhouse. Speaking of powerhouse, Evan, tell
me something about the defensive coordinator for the Eagles, who's
(25:28):
keeping Chiefs betters and the Chiefs up at night with Fangio.
Speaker 4 (25:33):
And you're right, Matt is a wordsmith, so you gotta
give him Matt. But talking about Fangio for a second here,
I think this is a just there's a bunch of
different ways to look at this. So obviously defensive coordinator Eagles,
but in this situation facing Mahomes, He's done that eight
times in his career. So he did it six times
with the Broncos, he did it twice with the Dolphins.
(25:53):
Now Mahomes is eight to no in those games straight up,
six and two against the spread. Mahomes as ten touchdowns,
two picks, sixty four percent completion percentage. Feels a little
low if I'm just telling you those numbers in terms
of the ten touchdowns in just eight games. But I
kind of looked a little bit deeper on this one
because I think this story is going to be out
there a lot. So two of his lowest ten passing
(26:15):
yard games in the regular season have come versus Fangio. Granted,
Denver's offense scored fifteen points in those two games, so
didn't really put up too much of a fight passing
yards after catch, which important. This game first and fourth
lowest career for ma Homes in regular season against that
Fangio defense. In those eight games, bad throw percentage, so
(26:40):
that is percentage of off target throws per pass attempt.
He's had twenty one games at twenty three percent or
higher three versus Fangio. Of twenty negative EPA games in
his career, two have come versus Fangio defenses, and also
two of his top ten worst EPA games versus Fangio defense.
(27:01):
Six of eight games versus Fangio, Mahomes had twenty percent
pressure percentage, which is the times pressured per dropback. So
I think Mahomes is great. He wins a ton of games.
I think the eight and no makes sense. I think
the six and two makes sense. He's putting up some points,
but overall, I think last time they met against Miami,
(27:21):
he gave him a bunch of cover zero, which screwed
with him a little bit. I think he's going to
give him different blitzes. I think Mahomes wins lots of games.
I think the data is actually a bit of a Yeah,
you'll see the eight and no, but I think there's
a tiny bit of worry there. But that's what I've
looked at going through it. Not that I take from it,
thank you.
Speaker 2 (27:39):
I needed to hear that because I was dived into
the ice. When I saw that as numbers you had,
I was like, oh my god, is this a bad
magic Because when I on paper what you just said,
it makes sense to me where it's like, this should
be the perfect defense for Mahomes. You're only rushing four
and you're giving them exotic looks, which's that's the only
way to beat this guy, right. If you don't have
a Max Crosby on your team, you know, you need
(28:00):
have a really strong front four because we've seen that
even the Raiders when they beat them, that's why they
beat them, right, their front four gets pressure. So that's
what the Eagles need to do here. And you know,
that really backs up what I thought coming into this.
And you know, let's let's think about this for a second.
If this is the only way to beat them, I
need those numbers to come true what you just said
of it, I need Mahomes to have a bad game.
(28:21):
You basically need the offensive the Eagles to show up.
If they can basically put up Well, we just talked
about over fifteen, sixteen, seventeen points. You know, if they
get in the twenty point range, twenty five points, there
is a chance they could beat this team because Mahomes.
Like I said, coming into this, I thought this would
be an undergame because I just can't see Mahomes putting
up thirty points in back to back weeks like I
(28:41):
thought last week. You know, we've talked coming into this,
we thought the Bills had a weak defense. Right, They've
had injuries. We know they had seventy million dead caps,
so they weren't spending on defense. They just had a
lot of weaknesses on that defense. So it makes sense
that Mahomes put up thirty two, his highest scoring game
the whole year. You're giving me some confidence of it.
I need to hear that from Vic because I was.
I was worried when I saw that trend that he
(29:03):
was eight to zero against Fangs defenses.
Speaker 1 (29:06):
So what's interesting to me here is I'd love to
know how often these games were played on extra rest
or off of a bye, because I do think we've
seen through your stats and through the years, no one
is better at game planning with extra time than Andy Reid.
Speaker 2 (29:27):
Right, Well, we said it was divisional. He said it
was Denvers that you can count it as a bid
chat just because that means they prep in the offseason
for that defense, which I agree with you. It's like
you could throw that into it. But that, to me
is pretty interesting that he was like they had time
to prep against it, and Fangs defense was still pretty
damn good for being on not that great of a
Denver defense.
Speaker 1 (29:46):
See, well, now I was starting to rationalize why I
could feel good and now I feel bad again. Shit,
maybe go ahead.
Speaker 4 (29:54):
The one I did look up because I felt like
the other part of this forgetting Fangio for a second,
I wanted to look at because the Eagles pass defense
has been something we've been discussing all year and it's
kind of everywhere. So and this helps your Mahomes case
on one angle, but Mahomes versus pass defense is two
hundred yards allowed or less. Pass defense. He's twenty three
(30:16):
and three in his career, twelve straight wins. His last
loss was October twenty twenty two against Buffalo. In November
or later, He's twelve and oh straight up career. So
the great pass defense thing and yeah, he's twelve and
oh in every stat I'm going to give. But the
fact that the two hundred yards are less on pass
defense and the twelve and oh and twelve and oh
(30:36):
later November tells me it's a mature pass defense, right, Like,
this isn't a September pass defense that's played three games.
I mean, this is a defense that's been a few
games into the season and feels the stat more heavy
to me, so absurd.
Speaker 1 (30:51):
But well, the other thing I was going to say,
and that tells me a lot about their pregame game planning,
which might lead to us liking Doctor Nicks past Patrick
Mahomes under thirty six and a half pass attempts even more.
But it also speaks to what we talked about on Tuesday, Simon,
Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes and their ability to adjust
(31:12):
in game. There's just nobody better at it, right. They
can see it and like do it series to series,
almost play to play because they're so in tune and
so good at figuring out what the other team is
doing and how to master the opposition. It's look, it's
a great defense. There's there's no rationalizing that it will
(31:33):
be giving everyone fits but it's what makes it so
much more interesting, right.
Speaker 2 (31:37):
Yeah, it makes me think too of Josh Allen, Like
I haven't had some amazing stats. When Josh Allen plays
really good defenses, his game gets even better. He's even better.
And same goes for Mahomes. It's just two absolute unicorns
in the sport where you know, most normal guys are
going to struggle against great defenses, but not these guys.
And I would love if we could play around and
remember these guys.
Speaker 4 (31:58):
This is I mean a guy who was born in
the late eighties. I like sitting down and just naming
old players. It's what I do for a living.
Speaker 2 (32:06):
It's my most eighty nine December eighty seven.
Speaker 4 (32:10):
Eighty seven. I'm in the middle there. I'm in the
middle there. But basically, I was trying to do some
research on Saquon Barkley and like how someone like that,
based off of his season, could possibly do in a
Super Bowl, or how many guys to put up his
numbers have been to a Super Bowl. So Eagles are
the eleventh team to enter a Super Bowl with a
fifteen one hundred plus yard regular season rusher and actually
(32:33):
the first since Shawn Alexander in two thousand and five
and Corey Dillon in two thousand and four, So those
teams with those fifteen hundred yard rushers are actually eight
and two in the Super Bowl. The two losses are
Sean Alexander in five, Jamal Anderson nineteen ninety eight, Siriani
And the thing that I thought was interesting of those
ten teams is they're adding a rusher like Saquon Barkley,
(32:58):
but they've also had experience in the Super Bowl. So
what I looked at was Sirianni and Hertz have been
there and they added Barkley. How many times of those
ten rushers before Barkley did they have a coaching quarterback
with Super Bowl experience? So two thousand and four, Corey Dillon,
they had been there. It was Belichick and Brady. Two
thousand and four they won the Super Bowl. Nineteen ninety eight,
(33:19):
it was Shanahan and Lway. They had Terrell Davis they
won the year prior they won the Super Bowl. Nineteen
eighty eight, it was Roger Craig. They had Walsh on Montana.
They had both won twice prior to that. They also
won the Super Bowl. So those teams that had been
there with that Rusher actually three to zero. Now they're
eight and two overall, So I'm not telling you something crazy,
(33:41):
but I was trying to come up with some sort
of comp for just we've been here before, we've gone
through the prep. Plus we also have this guy who's
having an outstanding season tends to turn out pretty well
in that spot. So that's the way I kind of
looked at it and trying to calculate how this team
adding this player who's been there would do very very
(34:02):
small numbers. And we know that even the craziest thing
is Saquan's prop, right, which is like one twelve, one
fourteen or so. This week, the question is is we
haven't seen someone run for one hundred and twenty yards
in a Super Bowl since Michael Pittman in two thousand
and three. So I mean, either way getting to that
number or higher is you know, it's Terrell Davis territory
(34:23):
in ninety eight. So I guess we're.
Speaker 1 (34:24):
Gonna have to see how that's how long it's been
since a guy ran for that many yards. Yeah, I remember,
you know, as an old person, Evan, you might remember
that Super Bowls used to be dominated by running backs.
I know, before your time in the early eighties. We're
talking John Riggins, Marcus Allen. Those were the freaking days.
(34:45):
And now you're telling me it's twenty two years since
a running back ran for one hundred and twenty yards.
That is something.
Speaker 2 (34:53):
It is, But it doesn't make sense too though, because
you think most teams are going to have a dominant,
great running back, probably gonna have a back quarter right
Derrick Henry, he's with Tannehill. I mean CJ.
Speaker 4 (35:04):
Twok.
Speaker 2 (35:04):
That Tennessee team they had nothing. I mean that Tennessee
team had nothing. Agrian Peterson go back and look through
his career, all those incredible running seasons, he just never
had a quarterback. So we don't want to blame the
running backs here. Even Marshawn Lynch right those incredible years,
there were still a pass happy offense, right with Russ,
So it does make sense you dive into it. We're right.
This is shows what kind of unicorn situation. It says,
(35:26):
where you have the best offensive line, the best running back,
and then a quarterback that's above average. So I definitely
makes sense you dive into it. We joked that you know,
the running backs have had a rebirth these last couple
of years like they were dead right. The twenty tens
to twenty twenty, the running back position just felt like
it was nothing, getting no money, no respect. Now it's
(35:49):
definitely going the other way, right that extra cap money.
Teams are using it on these legit running backs, And
we saw it this year Derrick Henry Saquon major major
differences to the teams they.
Speaker 1 (35:58):
Joined, Joe Shine and the New York Giants. Those clips
of him hearing from that one slowly scout assistant whatever
in his office saying are we sure no one's gonna
pay Sequon and everyone being like, noah, no one's gonna
(36:20):
pay him, and then him having the painful conversation with
Saquon that they're gonna let him test the market, like,
oh my god, it's it's it's excreased.
Speaker 4 (36:30):
Yeah, not even that his daughter told him, our daughter
or son told him to Jadon Daniels, Oh that's right,
that's right.
Speaker 2 (36:36):
Yeah, he was once in your lifetime. Why don't you
go get the best player. It's like, holy shit, this
kid is smarter than half of the organizations in all football.
Speaker 1 (36:45):
Got out think it. That's amazing. Want to make extra
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dot bet all right, Evan. It's called the most efficient
market of the year for a reason.
Speaker 4 (37:57):
Explain unbelievable and totals almost dead even in the Super Bowl.
It's actually some of the most ridiculous things ever. Fifty
eight total super bowls a date favorites twenty seven to
twenty nine and two against the spread. There was no
total in Super Bowl one. I can make one up,
but I'm not going to. Since then, overs twenty eight,
twenty eight and one absolutely dead even in Super Bowl history.
(38:22):
In the last twenty one games, the over is ten
and eleven. Can't get much more efficient than that, And
the public opinion really is no help sides getting the
majority of tickets eleven and ten straight up in ATS
and the Super Bowl since two thousand and four. In
the one Super Bowl, Mahomes was not the public side
he won and covered versus the Eagles two years ago.
(38:42):
But truthfully, itch is dead even It's the craziest thing.
Talk about the most efficient market ever.
Speaker 1 (38:48):
All Right, last one before we get out of here.
We do have a coaching rematch. What does that portend
for the Eagles and the Chiefs.
Speaker 4 (38:58):
Yeah, fifth coaching match in Super Bowl history, all time
head coach who won the first meeting straight up won
the second meeting in all four instances. Obviously, we just
did this with Reed and Shanahan, but it's been done
with Kauflin and Belichick, Jimmy Johnson and Marv Levy. Sorry,
Matt Mitchell and Chuck Noll and Tom Landry. And the
craziest thing is Chiefs Eagles marks just the second time
(39:21):
in NFL history same teams have met in the Super
Bowl in a three year twice in a three year stretch,
Bill's and Cowboys ninety two to ninety three. So, you know,
quick rematched here, I think is really fun because we
just saw this, we add a few you know, ingredients
to the pie. We kind of go from there.
Speaker 1 (39:36):
How does it make you feel, Simon?
Speaker 2 (39:39):
I mean, obviously not great, but this is to me
the perfect blend of this Eagles team is totally different
than they were the first time around. You go back
and look, you know, the Eagles leading rusher with Jalen
Hurts with seventy yards, they're given the ball to Miles Sanders.
Now we have a younger, healthier, better offensive line, and
we have Saguon Barkley. So it is interesting going back.
(40:00):
I mean I painfully had to do it yesterday. I
had to go back and watch that game, that Super Bowl.
I did not watch the final two minutes. I already
know what happens, but just rewatching it, you know, obviously
the defense is totally different. Now, like it's really noticeable
how different the style is compared to Gannon and this
Fangs defense, where it was basically just being very careful,
(40:20):
very soft, playing zone the entire game, where this new
Eagles team super aggressive, have the cornerbacks to play man.
And yeah, obviously when you break it down the coaching mismatch,
me and Chatter gave our opinion. We think the Chiefs
have a huge advantage and Andy Reid and spag So yeah,
it doesn't doesn't shock me that fact that these coaches,
you know, especially the Kaflin one. Note he had the
(40:43):
Patriots number, like he had the secret sauce right, that
the four rushers, smart with the ball on all offense,
very boring football. It worked like that style that Giants played.
It was the perfect match for that that Patriots team.
And I mean it is crazy. I think they lost
three super Bowls and two of them to a Giants
team that were what a wildcard team of So yeah,
(41:03):
it is pretty insane. We haven't had nothing fluky like that,
and like Evma said, since what twenty twelve, So once again,
it's been pretty pretty born one and two seeds every year.
Pretty much true story.
Speaker 1 (41:15):
I had drinks with Marv Levy and his wife. I
don't think I ever told Matt Mitchell this at the
Super Bowl one year after he had retired. When I
was at Sports Illustrated, I fact checked. It was my
first job at SI, fact checked a story about Marv Levy.
I think Rick Tellender, who was my hero mentor IDOL,
(41:35):
wrote the story. Then I had to as a fact checker.
You got to call the subject and basically check every
fact in the story, sometimes really intimate details. And so
I had that conversation with Marv Levy and we were
both going to be at the super Bowl forget where
it was. The Bills weren't in it, and me and
him and his wife had a drink and it was lovely.
(41:58):
Couldn't have been a nicer guy. Now, Michelle, you happy
I told that story.
Speaker 5 (42:03):
Harvard Master's degree holder, Marv Levy, one of America's greatest
treasures and who will be one hundred years old during
WOW the end of training camp this year. Marv, if
you're listing, you're a national treasurer.
Speaker 1 (42:17):
I love you, class act all the way.
Speaker 5 (42:20):
No place else should rather be this right here, right
when it's too tough for them it's.
Speaker 1 (42:25):
Not as as a reminder of The Favorites podcast is
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(42:48):
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(43:08):
Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page Tuesday, one thirty
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Spotify Apple Pods wherever you get your pods rate, review, subscribe,
levis five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a
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Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
I am Chad Mollman of the Action Network. I'm in
our Action Network studio, but it is a Tommy John studio.
I'm joined as always by my cost my companion, mikem
Padre might be a FF professional vetter, Simon Hunter.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
Ed O Simon, and I am in my Tommy John studio.
Thank you, Tommy John, my brother.
Speaker 1 (00:32):
Yeah, to see you one day closer. Today is a
big episode. It's our super Bowl Trends episode with our
favorite director of research and Favorites mainstay, the man who
signs jerseys at our live events, Evan Abrams. Will bring
him on in a second. Next Tuesday, We've got Chris
(00:53):
Raybond and Sean Cerner around to discuss their favorite props.
And then Thursday, we will of course nailed and discuss
our best bets with Brandon Anderson, who crushed it all
season long on the Sunday episode of the Action Network
Pod with Evan. His hot reads were always two bets
that I religiously made. We're gonna give it our Foxhole,
our Tommy John big Balls Simon's Biggest Bets will play
(01:17):
scoot Roulette all that jazz.
Speaker 3 (01:19):
The road to the super Bowl is long and pointless.
I mean, when do you think about it? Football is
so great, but now the two conference champs must survive
a harrowing bye week that no one enjoys five weeks.
Speaker 2 (01:37):
Bronco Negersky didn't get no bye weeks and now he's dead.
Speaker 1 (01:41):
Well maybe they were a good thing for now, we
got to focus on the trends. As a reminder, the
Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three six five and
now new Bet three six five. Customers get one hundred
and fifty dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars,
sign up using promo code Favorites, deposit ten dollars. Place
a bet for five dollars to get one hundred and
fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be
(02:03):
used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever
the moment, It's never ordinary. At Bet three sixty five.
Must be twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions
(02:25):
restrictions apply. All right, we're going to skip sharp calls
this week as well. We did a little bit of
it on Tuesday. We'll dig in more when we're closer
to the game a week from today. First, let's bring
in Evan Abrams.
Speaker 4 (02:38):
Director of research.
Speaker 1 (02:39):
He's got all the trends, all the data, everything that
we rely on so much during the season. Evan is
going to lay it out for us in one big palette.
Let's go, brother, give me your first best trend.
Speaker 4 (02:56):
Well, first of all, Chad, Hi, how are you This?
This one panders directly to you, though, So we started
off with our biggest contract.
Speaker 1 (03:05):
Like, by the way, there's only one person who likes
pandering more than me. I'm not going to make it
a political show, but we all know who gets Well.
Speaker 4 (03:12):
Yeah, we're here to kind of teasey a little bit
because this is the one you're going to You've been
really looking for, so only betting the best teams is
something you kind of talk about all the time this year,
you're talking about it with the Chiefs and the Eagles,
which is a ticket you had in the preseason them
meeting in the Super Bowl. Yeah, but this is an
interesting thing and I think it says a little bit
more about the current state of the NFL. Let's call
(03:34):
it the last decade. So Chad talked a lot about
taking the strategy of all twelve to one teams or
shorter in terms of Super Bowl favorites and taking a
round robin approach. So so I spoke with Matt and
basically we dope and we dived into this. So I
just want to start there and say, if you're feeling bold,
and every August for the last ten years, you bet
(03:55):
every single combination of teams at twelve to one or
shorter to win, basically parlayed all the conference title odds
combos in that span. It's won four times in sixty
seven total combinations. Now, that would be this year's Chiefs
and Eagles, Chiefs Niners, Chiefs, Bucks and Pats Rams. That's
the four times it's hit Now of the sixty seven
(04:15):
total combos, we've had four winners. So we've had sixty
three losers at one unit per bet. The four winners
paid about eighty four units minus to sixty three losers.
You'd be up about twenty one units doing this round
robin strategy last decade. Now, what if you weren't feeling
so bold, what about just straight flat betting every twelve
(04:37):
to one team or shorter. So over the last decade,
that's fifty six total teams, so fifty six bets. It's
won nine times, including this year, and it's lost forty
seven times. So with Casey or Philly pending, the eight
winners paid out sixty five units minus to forty seven
losing bets. If you did this blind, you'd be up
(04:58):
about eighteen units holding the Philly and KC tickets now
for what it's worth as well. And this is just
obviously more about the current state of the NFL twenty fourteen,
which is one year back of this sample size. New
England plus six fifty one at all, twenty thirteen, Seattle
eight to one, one at all. Now, twenty twelve is
where we get a string of long shots, starting with
(05:19):
Baltimore who wanted eighteen to one. But basically since that
twenty thirteen year, we have consistently seen the Brady's, the
Mahomes and just the favorites every single year, Chad. So
your strategy so far, so good?
Speaker 1 (05:33):
Well, really, Evan, I can only claim that it's your
strategy because I basically just did what you told me
to do, because I believe the stat is And now
it's eleven of the past twelve seasons the teams who
had odds of twelve to one or less were in
(05:57):
the Super Bowl. They were the matchup.
Speaker 4 (06:00):
No, so it's the super Bowl champion. A bunch of
those years you had the other team in the mix.
So only four times last decade have both teams actually
fit your trend where both were twelve to one or
shorter in the Super Bowl odds and we basically had
to parlay their conference odds. Does that make sense because
you're basically taking every team that's twelve to one or
(06:22):
shorter to win the Super Bowl yep, and then you're
taking their conference odds, parlaying them together and basically getting
a ticket where yours was like twenty eight to one. Right, yes, yeah,
so this one I believe was like twenty seven to
one using these odds, but basically you'd be around those units.
But truthfully, I mean, I'm curious what Simon thinks like
because everyone loves these long shots and basically it hasn't
(06:43):
hit up one year in the past twelve or thirteen
years in the NFL, and this is a one game
sample when you're not even dealing with a series. It's
it's to honestly a little bit crazy.
Speaker 1 (06:52):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (06:53):
My view I think ivan to agree with this is
I take long shots the hedge and I've missed the
two best ones in the last four or five years.
I missed on the Bengals one hundred and fifty to one,
and I obviously missed on the Commanders this year. One
hundred and fifty one. That's that's a position, right, that's
where you want to go. You want to take those
type of bets. You know, this a great one this
upcoming year. I fucking hate us Chad for saying that.
(07:15):
I guess who's one hundred and one right now or
one hundred and fifty to one, I should say Panthers.
So you think they can make the next step they
get the right guys, that's the type of team you
gotta do. You got to you gotta do it on
a team that no one believes in the Joe Burrow one.
That was a flucush one, right, he's coming off a
knee injury after his rookie year. The Commanders one, obviously
no one saw coming, right. I didn't see too many
people flashing their one hundred and fifty one tickets they had.
(07:38):
I know that one guy had uh was at circle.
I forget what book it was. It was basically bet
two k to win five hundred k on the Commanders
didn't come through. I'm sure that pro headed it out,
but yeah, what happens telling you right now is the
league has gotten not we want to say stale, but
it kind of has. Right. It's the top dogs, and
even coming this year, Chad was going through his list
(07:58):
and I was like, I wouldn't put Houston on that one, right.
I remember saying the child was like, don't don't do Houston.
Stay away from them, and I just don't think they
have the pieces. And I think I also gave him
bad advice too. I said I wouldn't do the Lions
coming to this year. I thought there was too much
bad juju after they blew that lead with golf the
year before. The forty nine Ers got very lucky that
one worked out because for a minute the midway through
the season, I was like, I just cost Chad a
(08:19):
ton of money. The Lions are a juggernaut. So I'm
with you on that, Evan. I would love to hear
what you have on Patrick. Mahomes actually gave out a
trend I thought was a good one that I was
wrong on my man. Evan helped me out. I thought
Mahomes was fifty to zero on Dome games. He is
fourteen oh one in Dome games. So still pre insane frience.
I know we got we gotta be truth by they'll
(08:40):
correct ourselves. Fourteen oh one Mahomes and Dome games in
his career are pretty.
Speaker 4 (08:43):
Insane, absolutely insane, and yeah, let me these are the
stats to me when you talk about Mahomes in the
Super Bowl, they I was talking about this before we
even went live here. They feel all made up like
this Legit feels like you put that stat out there
where someone's like twenty five and two and everyone you
know thinks you're making it up. It's just ridiculous. So
let me just kind of go through some of these.
(09:04):
In January February, Mahomes has played eighteen games at home
or on a neutral field, He's sixteen and two straight
up his losses against Burrow and Brady. If you throw
in November and December, he's forty four and six straight up.
Just the playoffs, Mahomes has been an underdog or a
favorite under a field goal eight times. He's eight and
(09:25):
no straight up and ats in those games. Now, when
you talk about on the field success and basically these
games where maybe it's gone back and forth a little bit,
Mahomes has trailed in the fourth quarter or overtime nine
total playoff games. He's won six forced overtime in two
of those games. Mahomes has played twenty games in the playoffs.
He's seventeen and three straight up eighty five percent minimum
(09:49):
ten games in the playoffs starts. That win percentage is
second best since nineteen fifty behind just bart Starr, who
is nine and one just ten playoff games.
Speaker 1 (09:58):
And I'll remind, as I did on Tuesday, because I
think Simon gave this out on Tuesday, bart Starr is
the only quarterback to go three straight because remember he
had an NFL championship and then they won those first
two Super Bowls. So that's that's the company. He's keeping
on that one.
Speaker 4 (10:17):
Yeah, just trophies, troph trophy names. At this point, it's
ridiculous he's winning Hallis because you know he's meeting Alice.
It's stupid. Let's look at his entire career away from home.
Mahomes have started twenty six games away from home as
either an underdog or a favorite of three points or
less twenty one four and one against a spread eighty
(10:38):
four percent in those games. I'll say that one again
because that's actually ridiculous. Entire career away from home, twenty
six games away from home as an underdog or a
favorite of three or less twenty one four and one
eighty four percent.
Speaker 1 (10:52):
And then Christ Simon, we are just so setting ourselves
up to be crushingly humiliated like they. You know, it's
like we are not the people who lean into stats
like these when it is the higher profile quarterback and
(11:16):
the favorite. It's just not who we are. We are
the people who can't go three weeks without mentioning in
the Carolina Panthers, even when the Panthers haven't played in
a month. Like the fact that we have invested the
way we have on Patrick Mahomes is just teeing us
up to be on the wrong side. I just got it.
(11:39):
I have to say. I have to say that out loud.
Do you feel I am now mushing us? Are you
with me when you hear these things? Like when I
hear these things, that makes me uncomfortable, doesn't make me
feel better about my position.
Speaker 2 (11:52):
No, I only worry about you mushing regular season playoff.
I don't think you can mush it. There's too much
going on in the playoffs for Chad's mush. But no,
we talked about, like Evan said on the top of
the show, these stats don't sound real when you talk
about homes because we've never seen it before. And it's
what we keep talking about. The models don't get it right.
Computer models can't get it because it's it doesn't sound
(12:12):
real what he does. And it's the same thing with Brady,
like you're getting a once in a lifetime generational talent
that just breaks all the rules, all the trends, and yeah,
just hearing these numbers. Even like Evan, even though he
told us these don't sound real but they're real, they
still don't sound real, right. The fact that he is
just reading off all these stats where it's twenty one
and four, eight and oh, sixteen and two. It's like,
(12:33):
holy shit, man, this kid is just so incredible. Twenty
nine years old too, only twenty nine.
Speaker 1 (12:38):
Yeah, that one away from home is as an underdog,
is ub sir.
Speaker 2 (12:47):
Yeah, he's agreed.
Speaker 4 (12:48):
He's the grim Reaper and everyone kind of talks about
it in these situations. But when you're winning like that
neutral and away, and you know, even his losses and
it's weird you look at him most some of them
are home, they're just eggs. Sometimes during the regular season,
when he goes away from home, he becomes a killer.
Speaker 3 (13:05):
Great teams aren't always great, they're just great when they
have to do.
Speaker 4 (13:12):
And that's why those records seem so crazy. I told
this to Simon and Okay, so he's five and zero
neutral field, which we get, I mean the Super Bowls,
plus he's played there in other situations. But the thing
that's crazy about it is twenty eighteen. And this is
the stat that kind of blows me away. So since
twenty eighteen, entering the fourth quarter overtime down one possession,
(13:34):
one to eight points, Chiefs have had twelve drives. They've
scored on eleven of them, eleven of twelve drives down
one score, They've scored eleven times out of twelve drives
twenty eighteen in the playoffs, all other teams are like
five of eleven, three of nine, two of nine. I mean,
he's doing things even when trailing. That's just absolutely ridiculous.
(13:55):
So that's my Mahomes stat. That's why.
Speaker 1 (13:59):
That's why you with him, is because you have to
because of that exact scenario. We say it all the time,
announcers say it. It's become cliche, but it's true. At
the end of the game, do you want to be
on Patrick Mahomes or against Patrick Mahomes if he has
the ball in his hand and they need to score
(14:19):
to win. That's it. That's how you're betting this game,
you know what I mean. It's just it is asurd.
I can't say it enough.
Speaker 4 (14:29):
And that was definitely part of the analysis against Buffalo.
I mean, to be fair, a lot else happened in
that game, but in the end, I mean, he was
stone cold. And the other one we can talk about
with Mahomes but also has to do with Andy Reid
is basically rest. I mean, we know how good Andy
Reid is, but the combo together is actually pretty crazy,
and it's another stat which just feels made up. But
during the season, Mahomes has played thirty four games on
(14:52):
extended rest since twenty nineteen, so that's basically eight days
or more. So it's not like a Sunday to Sunday.
It would be more than that. He's one thirty of
those thirty four games straight up. So thirty and four
losses to Brady, Matt Ryan, Jalen Hurts, and Aidan O'Connell
again one Jalen Hurts, which is funny, but thirty and
four just absolutely stupid stuff.
Speaker 1 (15:14):
Our Bet three six ' five Super Bowl Prop contest
is still accepting submissions. If you want to see your
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(15:37):
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(16:04):
Podcasts at actionnetwork dot com.
Speaker 5 (16:08):
That is, today's final warnings.
Speaker 1 (16:12):
Must be in today. All right, Evan, By the way,
you have one job make me and Silent feel better,
so don't make me feel bad.
Speaker 4 (16:21):
Well, okay, so some of this information. I'm just a
man who delivers, all right. I don't fully love everything,
but I think some of the numbers on some of
these are interesting. So let's give you one trend and
let's see your thoughts on it, because I think you
and I, especially in all the shows that you and
I have done together, sample size is something that's important
of a lot of these. So last Sunday, the Eagles
(16:42):
rolled Washington and the Chiefs had a close win against Buffalo.
So the question is is there anything we can glean
from that? So the Eagles scored fifty five points in
the Conference championship, the most in that round in NFL history.
Only two other teams have scored more than forty five
points in a conference championship. Bills did it in ninety
one and then lost the Super Bowl. Panthers did it
in twenty sixteen, then also lost the Super Bowl. So
(17:05):
ten total teams have scored forty plus points in a
conference championship game. They're three and seven in the Super Bowl.
So another one and I'll add on top of it,
and then I'll get your thought, which is Eagles beat
the Commanders by thirty two points. Teams win by double
digits in a conference championship round facing a team who
did not three and six straight up and against the
(17:26):
spread super Bowl since two thousand, failing to cover by
nine point five points per game, which would tell you
they're probably a bigger favorite in that spot, which I
could look back and look. But if you're winning by
double digits and then you're an underdog in the game,
that probably doesn't happen often, but to me, it does
probably speak on a little bit of competition. So I'll
get your thoughts on that and then we can kind
(17:47):
of move on. But both both of those trends kind
of telling you that the conference championship is a little
bit of a hold on weight.
Speaker 1 (17:54):
Before you act quick, yeah, exc I mean you go ahead.
Speaker 2 (17:58):
I agree with it, Like just theve not knowing those trends,
just the thinking of it. It's like, how often do
we see a team play their best game of the
year and then totally have a letdown the following game, Right,
It's just every one game you go from everything is
going perfectly the well, everything's moving smoothly, you're getting turnovers,
you're scoring tons of touchdowns, not kicking field goals, and
then the next week everything feels harder, right like it.
(18:20):
You know, my buddy I went to the book with
he was on Washington. He turns to me, after that
first drive that Washington had, he said was exactly what
Brady was saying. Everything felt like it was so much
harder on that first drive than it was against Detroit.
They did to earn every yard than it was against Detroit.
And that's how football can be, right, do you have
the right match with the right team, it can be easy,
(18:41):
and once you get once, it feels easy and you
have confidence. It's the opposite for the other team, right,
they're losing a confidence and they see how hard it
is to stop you. That's that's it to me. What
really stands up there was the Eagles are coming off
their easiest game in my opinion, I've ever seen them play, right,
I've never seen them dominate that game. Obviously, football hasn't easy.
It's the most points scored in a conference championship game.
(19:01):
So I think that's what Evan's kind of telling you people.
It's like Eagles just have the best game of their life.
You expect them to have a letdown game and then
going to get some Mahomes team. They're just strays and arrow,
same old Mahomes win and by three, close game and
one in the fourth quarter. That wasn't their best game, right,
that was just another Mahomes India Reid game. So that's
what I'm definitely taking away from what Evans telling us there.
Speaker 1 (19:24):
Yeah, I also take away from it. During the regular season,
it's almost like an auto fade on the team that
wins by you know, four plus touchdown, you immediately want
to look in the other direction.
Speaker 2 (19:38):
Now, again to Evan, unless it's Detroit during the regular season.
Speaker 1 (19:41):
Right exactly to Evans point, Normally that team the next
week is a huge favorite. They're not an underdog. So
there was a little bit of a difference here, But
to me, it actually speaks to that there is an
opportunity this team is at the top of the market.
I wonder if this game opens with the Chiefs as
(20:04):
even bigger favorites. Maybe they are two point favorites if
the Eagles don't crush the Commanders the way they do,
especially because the Commanders were the public side in that game,
So the people who were betting on the Commanders are
going to see the Eagles as being even better then
they might have believed they were. That you know, you
might even be getting half a point of value from
(20:26):
a bookmaker point of view on the Chiefs right now.
Speaker 2 (20:29):
Yeah, speaking of the Eagles, do you have any trends
about them after the buye week of Oh?
Speaker 4 (20:33):
Man, So this one's just strange, and I think a
little bit of momentum has something to do with this one.
But let me lay it out. So, the Chiefs had
a bye week entering the playoffs, the Eagles didn't play
in the wildcard round. How much impact has the buye
been even this late into the playoffs entering the Super
Bowl and obviously been playing for two plus weeks already.
In the Super Bowl era, teams that had a buy
(20:54):
entering the playoffs facing a team who did play in
the wildcard game or who did not have a by
four and twelve straight up two thirteen and one against
the spread, which would be very, very bad for the
bye week Chiefs in that situation. I think the thing
you can only really glean from this is that, like
taking that buy doesn't give you as much momentum, because
(21:17):
we talk about momentum entering a Super Bowl a lot,
but to me, this one just feels like some weird noise.
I don't know what to make of.
Speaker 1 (21:23):
It feels like weird noise. It feels like there shouldn't
be a momentum factor because both teams are getting two
weeks of rest and yeah, you know, I don't know.
It's not a huge sample set, but it's the only one.
It's the only one that we have. I don't know
that the next twenty six times this happens, it won't
(21:44):
be flipped.
Speaker 4 (21:45):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (21:46):
Back to make sense of it, and my view of
it is football is all about rhythm and timing. So
the Chiefs here have played what two games are their
starter is now going to be for a month and
a half. Yeah yeah, so that to me that does
add up to a or you know, that is a
big deal that you have a week off play two
games and you have another week off, so that that
(22:06):
definitely is gonna be a part of it.
Speaker 4 (22:07):
Right.
Speaker 2 (22:07):
The team's just not in a rhythm, not in sync.
But what Chad just mentioned here is, you know, Mahomes,
they're always in rhythm, right. It just when you watch
him play, even last year against the forty nine ers,
he was in a rhythm for that whole first half.
Once he got a rhythm in that game, it totally
flipped the switch. Once he gets going. I don't think
they punted the rest of the game right once he
got going against the foreigners defense. So that that to me,
(22:29):
if that makes sense when you break it down like that,
then yeah, these teams come out of rhythm. They're not,
you know, not not ready for that game speed because
they've just been practicing against themselves and not going full speed.
But we talk all the time, Mahomes. If anyone's gonna
go against that trend, it's it's he's definitely got it
back in that spot.
Speaker 1 (22:49):
Yeah, that that one feels sorry, That one feels I
don't know. I'm not buying it, and I'm not buying
it because I I don't want to buy it, Like
I don't I don't I want the confirmation and buy us.
I'm buying it. It just doesn't feel like a thing yet,
doesn't feel like we know enough.
Speaker 4 (23:05):
Yeah, the four and twelve throws me off. The two
thirteen and one could have been something to do with
the points spread, but four and twelve kind of confirms
it's not so little noisy for me. Don't know what
to make of.
Speaker 1 (23:13):
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(23:34):
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(23:58):
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(25:01):
little short story gems.
Speaker 2 (25:03):
Never know where you're going with them, never.
Speaker 1 (25:05):
Dude, this is the joy. I don't know where I'm
going with them either. I am finding it out as
I read it. Literally, I don't know what's going to
happen next. This is the beauty of working with Matt Mitchell.
He is a creative powerhouse. Speaking of powerhouse, Evan, tell
me something about the defensive coordinator for the Eagles, who's
(25:28):
keeping Chiefs betters and the Chiefs up at night with Fangio.
Speaker 4 (25:33):
And you're right, Matt is a wordsmith, so you gotta
give him Matt. But talking about Fangio for a second here,
I think this is a just there's a bunch of
different ways to look at this. So obviously defensive coordinator Eagles,
but in this situation facing Mahomes, He's done that eight
times in his career. So he did it six times
with the Broncos, he did it twice with the Dolphins.
(25:53):
Now Mahomes is eight to no in those games straight up,
six and two against the spread. Mahomes as ten touchdowns,
two picks, sixty four percent completion percentage. Feels a little
low if I'm just telling you those numbers in terms
of the ten touchdowns in just eight games. But I
kind of looked a little bit deeper on this one
because I think this story is going to be out
there a lot. So two of his lowest ten passing
(26:15):
yard games in the regular season have come versus Fangio. Granted,
Denver's offense scored fifteen points in those two games, so
didn't really put up too much of a fight passing
yards after catch, which important. This game first and fourth
lowest career for ma Homes in regular season against that
Fangio defense. In those eight games, bad throw percentage, so
(26:40):
that is percentage of off target throws per pass attempt.
He's had twenty one games at twenty three percent or
higher three versus Fangio. Of twenty negative EPA games in
his career, two have come versus Fangio defenses, and also
two of his top ten worst EPA games versus Fangio defense.
(27:01):
Six of eight games versus Fangio, Mahomes had twenty percent
pressure percentage, which is the times pressured per dropback. So
I think Mahomes is great. He wins a ton of games.
I think the eight and no makes sense. I think
the six and two makes sense. He's putting up some points,
but overall, I think last time they met against Miami,
(27:21):
he gave him a bunch of cover zero, which screwed
with him a little bit. I think he's going to
give him different blitzes. I think Mahomes wins lots of games.
I think the data is actually a bit of a Yeah,
you'll see the eight and no, but I think there's
a tiny bit of worry there. But that's what I've
looked at going through it. Not that I take from it,
thank you.
Speaker 2 (27:39):
I needed to hear that because I was dived into
the ice. When I saw that as numbers you had,
I was like, oh my god, is this a bad
magic Because when I on paper what you just said,
it makes sense to me where it's like, this should
be the perfect defense for Mahomes. You're only rushing four
and you're giving them exotic looks, which's that's the only
way to beat this guy, right. If you don't have
a Max Crosby on your team, you know, you need
(28:00):
have a really strong front four because we've seen that
even the Raiders when they beat them, that's why they
beat them, right, their front four gets pressure. So that's
what the Eagles need to do here. And you know,
that really backs up what I thought coming into this.
And you know, let's let's think about this for a second.
If this is the only way to beat them, I
need those numbers to come true what you just said
of it, I need Mahomes to have a bad game.
(28:21):
You basically need the offensive the Eagles to show up.
If they can basically put up Well, we just talked
about over fifteen, sixteen, seventeen points. You know, if they
get in the twenty point range, twenty five points, there
is a chance they could beat this team because Mahomes.
Like I said, coming into this, I thought this would
be an undergame because I just can't see Mahomes putting
up thirty points in back to back weeks like I
(28:41):
thought last week. You know, we've talked coming into this,
we thought the Bills had a weak defense. Right, They've
had injuries. We know they had seventy million dead caps,
so they weren't spending on defense. They just had a
lot of weaknesses on that defense. So it makes sense
that Mahomes put up thirty two, his highest scoring game
the whole year. You're giving me some confidence of it.
I need to hear that from Vic because I was.
I was worried when I saw that trend that he
(29:03):
was eight to zero against Fangs defenses.
Speaker 1 (29:06):
So what's interesting to me here is I'd love to
know how often these games were played on extra rest
or off of a bye, because I do think we've
seen through your stats and through the years, no one
is better at game planning with extra time than Andy Reid.
Speaker 2 (29:27):
Right, Well, we said it was divisional. He said it
was Denvers that you can count it as a bid
chat just because that means they prep in the offseason
for that defense, which I agree with you. It's like
you could throw that into it. But that, to me
is pretty interesting that he was like they had time
to prep against it, and Fangs defense was still pretty
damn good for being on not that great of a
Denver defense.
Speaker 1 (29:46):
See, well, now I was starting to rationalize why I
could feel good and now I feel bad again. Shit,
maybe go ahead.
Speaker 4 (29:54):
The one I did look up because I felt like
the other part of this forgetting Fangio for a second,
I wanted to look at because the Eagles pass defense
has been something we've been discussing all year and it's
kind of everywhere. So and this helps your Mahomes case
on one angle, but Mahomes versus pass defense is two
hundred yards allowed or less. Pass defense. He's twenty three
(30:16):
and three in his career, twelve straight wins. His last
loss was October twenty twenty two against Buffalo. In November
or later, He's twelve and oh straight up career. So
the great pass defense thing and yeah, he's twelve and
oh in every stat I'm going to give. But the
fact that the two hundred yards are less on pass
defense and the twelve and oh and twelve and oh
(30:36):
later November tells me it's a mature pass defense, right, Like,
this isn't a September pass defense that's played three games.
I mean, this is a defense that's been a few
games into the season and feels the stat more heavy
to me, so absurd.
Speaker 1 (30:51):
But well, the other thing I was going to say,
and that tells me a lot about their pregame game planning,
which might lead to us liking Doctor Nicks past Patrick
Mahomes under thirty six and a half pass attempts even more.
But it also speaks to what we talked about on Tuesday, Simon,
Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes and their ability to adjust
(31:12):
in game. There's just nobody better at it, right. They
can see it and like do it series to series,
almost play to play because they're so in tune and
so good at figuring out what the other team is
doing and how to master the opposition. It's look, it's
a great defense. There's there's no rationalizing that it will
(31:33):
be giving everyone fits but it's what makes it so
much more interesting, right.
Speaker 2 (31:37):
Yeah, it makes me think too of Josh Allen, Like
I haven't had some amazing stats. When Josh Allen plays
really good defenses, his game gets even better. He's even better.
And same goes for Mahomes. It's just two absolute unicorns
in the sport where you know, most normal guys are
going to struggle against great defenses, but not these guys.
And I would love if we could play around and
remember these guys.
Speaker 4 (31:58):
This is I mean a guy who was born in
the late eighties. I like sitting down and just naming
old players. It's what I do for a living.
Speaker 2 (32:06):
It's my most eighty nine December eighty seven.
Speaker 4 (32:10):
Eighty seven. I'm in the middle there. I'm in the
middle there. But basically, I was trying to do some
research on Saquon Barkley and like how someone like that,
based off of his season, could possibly do in a
Super Bowl, or how many guys to put up his
numbers have been to a Super Bowl. So Eagles are
the eleventh team to enter a Super Bowl with a
fifteen one hundred plus yard regular season rusher and actually
(32:33):
the first since Shawn Alexander in two thousand and five
and Corey Dillon in two thousand and four, So those
teams with those fifteen hundred yard rushers are actually eight
and two in the Super Bowl. The two losses are
Sean Alexander in five, Jamal Anderson nineteen ninety eight, Siriani
And the thing that I thought was interesting of those
ten teams is they're adding a rusher like Saquon Barkley,
(32:58):
but they've also had experience in the Super Bowl. So
what I looked at was Sirianni and Hertz have been
there and they added Barkley. How many times of those
ten rushers before Barkley did they have a coaching quarterback
with Super Bowl experience? So two thousand and four, Corey Dillon,
they had been there. It was Belichick and Brady. Two
thousand and four they won the Super Bowl. Nineteen ninety eight,
(33:19):
it was Shanahan and Lway. They had Terrell Davis they
won the year prior they won the Super Bowl. Nineteen
eighty eight, it was Roger Craig. They had Walsh on Montana.
They had both won twice prior to that. They also
won the Super Bowl. So those teams that had been
there with that Rusher actually three to zero. Now they're
eight and two overall, So I'm not telling you something crazy,
(33:41):
but I was trying to come up with some sort
of comp for just we've been here before, we've gone
through the prep. Plus we also have this guy who's
having an outstanding season tends to turn out pretty well
in that spot. So that's the way I kind of
looked at it and trying to calculate how this team
adding this player who's been there would do very very
(34:02):
small numbers. And we know that even the craziest thing
is Saquan's prop, right, which is like one twelve, one
fourteen or so. This week, the question is is we
haven't seen someone run for one hundred and twenty yards
in a Super Bowl since Michael Pittman in two thousand
and three. So I mean, either way getting to that
number or higher is you know, it's Terrell Davis territory
(34:23):
in ninety eight. So I guess we're.
Speaker 1 (34:24):
Gonna have to see how that's how long it's been
since a guy ran for that many yards. Yeah, I remember,
you know, as an old person, Evan, you might remember
that Super Bowls used to be dominated by running backs.
I know, before your time in the early eighties. We're
talking John Riggins, Marcus Allen. Those were the freaking days.
(34:45):
And now you're telling me it's twenty two years since
a running back ran for one hundred and twenty yards.
That is something.
Speaker 2 (34:53):
It is, But it doesn't make sense too though, because
you think most teams are going to have a dominant,
great running back, probably gonna have a back quarter right
Derrick Henry, he's with Tannehill. I mean CJ.
Speaker 4 (35:04):
Twok.
Speaker 2 (35:04):
That Tennessee team they had nothing. I mean that Tennessee
team had nothing. Agrian Peterson go back and look through
his career, all those incredible running seasons, he just never
had a quarterback. So we don't want to blame the
running backs here. Even Marshawn Lynch right those incredible years,
there were still a pass happy offense, right with Russ,
So it does make sense you dive into it. We're right.
This is shows what kind of unicorn situation. It says,
(35:26):
where you have the best offensive line, the best running back,
and then a quarterback that's above average. So I definitely
makes sense you dive into it. We joked that you know,
the running backs have had a rebirth these last couple
of years like they were dead right. The twenty tens
to twenty twenty, the running back position just felt like
it was nothing, getting no money, no respect. Now it's
(35:49):
definitely going the other way, right that extra cap money.
Teams are using it on these legit running backs, And
we saw it this year Derrick Henry Saquon major major
differences to the teams they.
Speaker 1 (35:58):
Joined, Joe Shine and the New York Giants. Those clips
of him hearing from that one slowly scout assistant whatever
in his office saying are we sure no one's gonna
pay Sequon and everyone being like, noah, no one's gonna
(36:20):
pay him, and then him having the painful conversation with
Saquon that they're gonna let him test the market, like,
oh my god, it's it's it's excreased.
Speaker 4 (36:30):
Yeah, not even that his daughter told him, our daughter
or son told him to Jadon Daniels, Oh that's right,
that's right.
Speaker 2 (36:36):
Yeah, he was once in your lifetime. Why don't you
go get the best player. It's like, holy shit, this
kid is smarter than half of the organizations in all football.
Speaker 1 (36:45):
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(37:49):
dot bet all right, Evan. It's called the most efficient
market of the year for a reason.
Speaker 4 (37:57):
Explain unbelievable and totals almost dead even in the Super Bowl.
It's actually some of the most ridiculous things ever. Fifty
eight total super bowls a date favorites twenty seven to
twenty nine and two against the spread. There was no
total in Super Bowl one. I can make one up,
but I'm not going to. Since then, overs twenty eight,
twenty eight and one absolutely dead even in Super Bowl history.
(38:22):
In the last twenty one games, the over is ten
and eleven. Can't get much more efficient than that, And
the public opinion really is no help sides getting the
majority of tickets eleven and ten straight up in ATS
and the Super Bowl since two thousand and four. In
the one Super Bowl, Mahomes was not the public side
he won and covered versus the Eagles two years ago.
(38:42):
But truthfully, itch is dead even It's the craziest thing.
Talk about the most efficient market ever.
Speaker 1 (38:48):
All Right, last one before we get out of here.
We do have a coaching rematch. What does that portend
for the Eagles and the Chiefs.
Speaker 4 (38:58):
Yeah, fifth coaching match in Super Bowl history, all time
head coach who won the first meeting straight up won
the second meeting in all four instances. Obviously, we just
did this with Reed and Shanahan, but it's been done
with Kauflin and Belichick, Jimmy Johnson and Marv Levy. Sorry,
Matt Mitchell and Chuck Noll and Tom Landry. And the
craziest thing is Chiefs Eagles marks just the second time
(39:21):
in NFL history same teams have met in the Super
Bowl in a three year twice in a three year stretch,
Bill's and Cowboys ninety two to ninety three. So, you know,
quick rematched here, I think is really fun because we
just saw this, we add a few you know, ingredients
to the pie. We kind of go from there.
Speaker 1 (39:36):
How does it make you feel, Simon?
Speaker 2 (39:39):
I mean, obviously not great, but this is to me
the perfect blend of this Eagles team is totally different
than they were the first time around. You go back
and look, you know, the Eagles leading rusher with Jalen
Hurts with seventy yards, they're given the ball to Miles Sanders.
Now we have a younger, healthier, better offensive line, and
we have Saguon Barkley. So it is interesting going back.
(40:00):
I mean I painfully had to do it yesterday. I
had to go back and watch that game, that Super Bowl.
I did not watch the final two minutes. I already
know what happens, but just rewatching it, you know, obviously
the defense is totally different. Now, like it's really noticeable
how different the style is compared to Gannon and this
Fangs defense, where it was basically just being very careful,
(40:20):
very soft, playing zone the entire game, where this new
Eagles team super aggressive, have the cornerbacks to play man.
And yeah, obviously when you break it down the coaching mismatch,
me and Chatter gave our opinion. We think the Chiefs
have a huge advantage and Andy Reid and spag So yeah,
it doesn't doesn't shock me that fact that these coaches,
you know, especially the Kaflin one. Note he had the
(40:43):
Patriots number, like he had the secret sauce right, that
the four rushers, smart with the ball on all offense,
very boring football. It worked like that style that Giants played.
It was the perfect match for that that Patriots team.
And I mean it is crazy. I think they lost
three super Bowls and two of them to a Giants
team that were what a wildcard team of So yeah,
(41:03):
it is pretty insane. We haven't had nothing fluky like that,
and like Evma said, since what twenty twelve, So once again,
it's been pretty pretty born one and two seeds every year.
Pretty much true story.
Speaker 1 (41:15):
I had drinks with Marv Levy and his wife. I
don't think I ever told Matt Mitchell this at the
Super Bowl one year after he had retired. When I
was at Sports Illustrated, I fact checked. It was my
first job at SI, fact checked a story about Marv Levy.
I think Rick Tellender, who was my hero mentor IDOL,
(41:35):
wrote the story. Then I had to as a fact checker.
You got to call the subject and basically check every
fact in the story, sometimes really intimate details. And so
I had that conversation with Marv Levy and we were
both going to be at the super Bowl forget where
it was. The Bills weren't in it, and me and
him and his wife had a drink and it was lovely.
(41:58):
Couldn't have been a nicer guy. Now, Michelle, you happy
I told that story.
Speaker 5 (42:03):
Harvard Master's degree holder, Marv Levy, one of America's greatest
treasures and who will be one hundred years old during
WOW the end of training camp this year. Marv, if
you're listing, you're a national treasurer.
Speaker 1 (42:17):
I love you, class act all the way.
Speaker 5 (42:20):
No place else should rather be this right here, right
when it's too tough for them it's.
Speaker 1 (42:25):
Not as as a reminder of The Favorites podcast is
presented by Bet three sixty five and now new Bet
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and I We'll return with our next episode of The
(43:08):
Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page Tuesday, one thirty
pm Eastern two talk super Bowl props. Download us some
Spotify Apple Pods wherever you get your pods rate, review, subscribe,
levis five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a
gift Until next time. Love you. Action Network reminds you
(43:33):
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Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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