April 8, 2025 • 67 mins
Nick Wright is back talking football after the release of the NFL preseason win totals. He breaks down every team’s total and gives his picks for overs and unders. Then, Nick recaps the National Championship between Florida and Houston, as well as Duke’s collapse. Later, Nick recaps LeBron James, Luka Doncic, and the Los Angeles Lakers' win over the Oklahoma City Thunder from over the weekend and shares his predictions for the Western Conference as the NBA Playoffs approaches. Finally, as always, Nick and Damonza answer your questions. #Volume #Herd
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome in walch Draight with the great episode three seventeen,
fresh off a wild NCAA Tournament championship game and maybe
wilder Western Conference playoff bracket as we head into the
final five days of the season, and we have right
(00:21):
now five teams all with thirty two losses both of
those topics. Shortly on the show, and then as promised
last week, we will do our annual NFL Over Unders
NFL Win Total show. These these are not locked for us.
We will do our preseason gambling show post draft. Obviously
(00:47):
it's post free agency, late in training camp where we
actually make these bets. Now the heads up for the
gambling stuff we're doing shortly. There might be a few
that we like so much that we just say we're
gonna bet them right now. We will if we say that,
we will mark those down and count those toward our
(01:10):
season long ledger that we you know, do the accounting
for at the very end of the football season. But
some of these are just leans in one direction or another.
We'll do all of that, uh, before we get to that.
Welcome in, Demanse, Demanse, how are you I know this
is the single most banal topic of any phone call
(01:30):
or even a podcast. But I am curious. What is
the weather like in Los Angeles right now?
Speaker 2 (01:37):
It's pretty amazing, pretty good, I'd.
Speaker 1 (01:40):
Say it is. Still It's April eighth. The Masters starts Thursday.
It's forty something degrees in New York. I am. It
has gone on long enough that your mother came downstairs
today and just said to me, I think I need
to go away for a month. Not me, her, She's like,
(02:04):
I just I just need to go somewhere warm for
a month. She said, the weather is just sapping my energy.
So at some point the way, it's gotta get warm
in New York. At that point, deep, it's man. Usually
April's like a top tier New York month. Whatever. Nobody cares.
(02:25):
All right, here's what missed the cut. Alex Ovechkin breaks
a record that I did not think was breakable, the
Gretzky scoring record. Now, let me also say something else
I don't. I think it's very important on this show
to not pretend to be an expert on everything. People
get themselves in trouble. You pretend to be an expert
(02:45):
on everything, you might all of a sudden find yourself
talking lebron in the morning, Govetchkin in the afternoons, and
the Gaza Strip at night. No one would do that
and then seriously say they're gonna run for president and
then be wrong about all three. I try not to,
you know, pretend that I know to mix some tariff
stuff in there as well be an expert on everything.
(03:07):
But I'm a diehard sports fan, and I'm enough of
a diehard sports fan to know Wayne Gretzky is the
only athlete I've ever seen that if you go to
his Wikipedia page, even though the Internet is endless and
a page can just scroll forever, and you're like, hey,
what records does Wayne Gretzky have, you have to go
to a separate Wikipedia page where it's like, actually, all
(03:30):
of Wayne Gretzky's records are here. So I just assumed
this was unbreakable. And then when I heard Ovechkin broke it,
or when I obviously I knew he was going to
break it the last month or so it's been in
the news, and I just said, again, folks can say
bad sports fan, Nick for not knowing this. I assumed
Ovechkin must be like a Bobby Ors style guy that
(03:53):
played until his mid forties, and then I saw alex
Ovechkin after he broke the record, and I was like, oh, confirmed,
this guy played until his late forties. Turns out alex
Ovechkin is thirty nine years old. That is a hard
thirty nine for alex Ovechkin. He's younger than me now
and and incredibly wealthy. Say it again, No, it's not
(04:15):
just the it's not just the greay. It just like
and maybe it's the you know, the the that coming
up you know in Russia is tough. I don't know, man,
but alex Ovechkin, for a guy that rich and that successful,
you know, that's a hard thirty nine. But unbelievable. He
breaks s Gretzky's record. Everyone thought it was unbreakable. Here's
something almost as unbelievable. Gino Wriama Demonse has coached in
(04:40):
thirteen National Championship Games. That in and of itself is remarkable.
He's twelve and one in those games. Twelve and one
in the National Championship Games. I'm so happy for Paige.
I think she you know that her recruiting class, the
top five for her high school class page, Angel Caitlin,
(05:07):
Oh the Bank, Cameron Brink Yes. And then Cardosa. Those five,
all of them champions, oddly except for Caitlyn and Page
had to stick around a year longer because she blew
out her knee. She got her title. Hopefully Juju can
have the same trajectory gets delayed because you blew out
(05:29):
the knee, goes and win the title. And then the
other big game this weekend that didn't miss the couple.
We'll do it quickly and then we'll get to it more.
In the West playoff push segment was the Lakers dog
walking the Thunder and my what, what's your little woe?
Speaker 2 (05:49):
Thunder?
Speaker 1 (05:52):
They weren't in that game. I mean, they played all
their guys and the I said on the TV show
Friday that the perfect weekend for the Lakers was beating
the Thunder. I'm sorry, beating the Pelicans, beating the Thunder
and then sitting everyone Tuesday and when they play the
(06:15):
Thunder again tonight. And I don't know if you've seen
the points spread in that game, but it's okay see
minus fifteen because Vegas thinks that's exactly what the Lakers
are gonna do, and basically denying the Thunder the opportunity
for any get back, leaving in the back of their head.
(06:37):
Wait a minute, Luca knocked us out of the playoffs
last year. They just crushed us this year. Luca's team,
we still have no one to guard him. That to
me is absolutely ideal, particularly when the other reason I
said they should rest guys is they play they being
(06:59):
the Lakers the MAVs tomorrow. So the Lakers since Saturday
will have played the Thunder the Thunder again and then
the MAVs. The MAVs have not played since Saturday, so
the Lakers it would be their third game in four nights.
The MAVs would be their first game in four nights.
So now they're letting their guys rest and be ready
(07:21):
for that game knowing and again more on this in
the Western Rammicks playoff bracket stuff, if the Lakers go
two and two in their final four, they lock up
the three seed. If we just chalk tonight up as
a loss, what it means is MAVs Rockets Tanking Blazers
final game of the year. If you win two of
(07:42):
those games, you lock up the three seed, which is
gold for the Western Conference. My other takeaway for thunder
Lakers before we get to last night's championship game. The Thunder,
more so than any team the Western Conference, have so
(08:03):
much depth defensively, and even the Thunder found themselves in
a spot where it's like, hold on, if my best
wing defender is on Luca and my second best wing
defender is on Lebron, then who the hell is guarding
Austin Reeves. And when you look at the Western Conference
(08:26):
playoffs and you look across every team the Lakers could
play and say power rank their wing defenders, all of
these teams have at least one really good one, a
couple have two pretty good ones. Only the Thunder have
(08:50):
three really good ones. Everyone else, Austin Reeves is just
going to be feasting on a meeting bad defensive player.
And the Rockets have two awesome ones in Amen Thompson
and Dylan Brooks, But who's the third? And so that's
(09:12):
going to be a sneaky, huge edge for the Lakers
in any series. As far as I am not going
to act as if because of that game, oh there's
you know, systemic issues with the Thunder, and Thunder gonna
win sixty seven games, they're awesome. The concerns, however, would
(09:34):
be as follows. The youth is just never seeing a
team this young make the finals, much less win it.
Everyone has said that is your second best guy good enough?
That's a Jalen Williams chet Holmgren question. We'll see how
will the playoff whistle impact Shay? He seemed to get
(09:57):
it this weekend against the Rockets and the Lakers and
it impacted them a bit. And then this is the
last piece of it that I have not heard enough
people make the point of when it comes to handicapping
the Thunder for this championship. One of the reasons the
Thunder have this insane point differential is they are legit
(10:18):
twelve quality NBA players deep, and so even when they
have guys out, and certainly when they go to their bench,
their bench is so much better than the other team's
bench in the playoffs. How good your ninth, tenth, eleventh,
and twelve guys are is mostly irrelevant because you're really
(10:38):
just playing seven or eight guys, So will that edge
be muted a bit? Those are all legitimate questions. Remember,
like rate subscribe review, We're just this close to two
hundred thousand on YouTube. That'd be awesome to get there
during you know, maybe the play in of the or
the NBA Playoffs, certainly in the first round so and
(11:02):
you can watch us live on YouTube. Will also, by
the way, be doing these emergency kind of reaction shows
throughout the NBA Playoffs. You can get those not just
on YouTube, where we'd love for you to like, rate, subscribe,
and review. It helps us a ton, but also on iTunes, Spotify, everything.
But now to the championship game last night Demon Day.
(11:22):
I was pulling for Houston because of our ties to Houston.
I also like Kelvin Sampson, tell us what happened?
Speaker 2 (11:31):
Well, yeah, I mean Houston went from winning that crazy
one against Duke on Saturday. I mean we have I've
been pulling for Houston, but that rep should be investigated
from that game on Saturday. Okay, but yeah, so they
lost the crazy one to Florida yesterday off of the
potential double drib or whatever. What are your thoughts on
the tournament and how it ended.
Speaker 1 (11:52):
I mean, I have a lot of thoughts here. Houston
did not get a shot up, not on the final possession,
on their final four possessions. They didn't hit the rim
(12:13):
seemingly for the last two minutes of that game. And
somebody had a tweet that I wish I could give
them credit because I thought it was really funny and
actually pretty kind of profound almost talking about Houston's style
because they're just such a ferocious, relentless, tough defensive team.
(12:36):
Where they said, I imagine Houston's practices are just three
hours of suicides and punching each other in the face,
and that kind of is how they played. But there's
downside to that, which is they never you never felt
like they were against a great team going to be
(13:00):
able to definitively put them away. And they had opportunities
against Florida to put them away when that defense was
just giving Florida fits, and Florida's you know, stuck around,
just like Houston did against Duke, just long enough to
where you see the college kids tighten up and Houston's
(13:22):
kids tightened up. Walter Clayton Junior, you know, had a
great final flourish in this game after you know, with
five minutes left in this game, it looked like this
was gonna be the first game in two years he
had a sixty one game streak of hitting a three.
He didn't hit one until late in the game. He
(13:43):
obviously didn't score his first basket until late late in
the first half or was it early second half, I
don't even remember, but Florida was able to stick around
and then steal it at the end. Not getting a
shot off in that spot is just the stuff of
apps nightmares for a coach. But they didn't get a
shot off like it was if you just look at
(14:06):
what Houston did over the final two minutes, because one
of the possessions they did get a shot up, it
was essentially an air balled layup. They were getting no
good looks. And when you go to the waning moments
of the game, after LJ. Cryer made missed a layup
(14:28):
and then tipped in his own miss with two thirty left,
here were Houston's possessions. Made a free throw, then missed
a free throw, badly missed the three offensive rebound miss jumper,
offensive rebound, turnover, turnover, turnover, turnover. To not get a
(15:00):
shot on the rim in the final two minutes of
the ninety seconds of the game is just so crushing
and you feel so sick for Kelvin Samson.
Speaker 2 (15:15):
Yeah, but my I mean.
Speaker 1 (15:17):
Because again, yeah, seventy say it again that Oh yeah, well, no,
I'm talking about the coach LJ. Cryer. LJ. Cryer the
back to back turnovers and then Emmanuel Sharp had the
back to back turnovers late. I mean both there. But
for Kelvin who was a great coach, got a show
(15:39):
cause penalty and got run out of college basketball for
a while, came back and what he's done at Houston
is remarkable since he's been there. It's our buddy. Buddy's
probably too strong. But the kid we root for, Quinton Grimes,
you know, was there and they were a legitimate contender
(16:03):
since he's been there. So Calvin Sampson took over a
mediocre team. His first year, they're thirteen to nineteen. His
next two years they're in the NIC and then since then,
this is what they've done. Twenty seven wins, and they
won a tournament game, thirty three wins, and get popped
in the Sweet sixteen, then COVID year, then twenty eight wins,
(16:28):
Final four, thirty two wins, Elite eight, thirty three wins,
Sweet sixteen, thirty two wins, Sweet sixteen, thirty five wins,
lose the championship game by two, and you know, you
(16:50):
you hope he has another great shot. You don't know
if he's gonna have another great shot. He turned seventy
next season, he'll keep coaching. But man, oh man, it
as much as they stole one from Duke, they absolutely
let one get away. And so I had two recurring
(17:13):
thoughts in that game. One was Duke had to be
watching this game, like, you gotta be fucking kidding me,
Like the we we should be in this game. And
you know they they their collapse was different than Houston's. There.
I know you put it on that you hate. I mean,
(17:35):
it's a bad call. Bad college drafts are bad, and
the review process in college basketball is truly truly awful.
And what nobody ever acknowledges when they're like, oh they
have to get it right and oh, we've got the
tenths of a second could matter. And I bring up
every time, you know what also matters fatigue and these
(17:59):
this idea that being the better conditioned team should you
should lose all edge from that in the final two
minutes of these games, because every out of bounds call
there's going to be a one to four minute break
to review it. I hate it so much, But set
that aside. My other takeaway from really this entire tournament,
(18:23):
but certainly the final four. We had four number one seats.
We had by kin Palm rankings, four of the best
college basketball teams of the last decade all playing. And
despite that, you've never seen a better illustration for the
(18:47):
glaring and massive gap between the talent and skill level
between guys who are good enough to be starters and
big time players for the best college basketball teams in
the country and guys who are good enough to play
(19:08):
in the NBA. Like college basketball in the modern era,
where guys don't stick around typically for that long, the
best players never do, and teams don't stick together. The
gap between that and the skill and talent and ability
(19:30):
it takes to play in the NBA is the widest
it's ever been, and it's why a guy like Walter
Clayton junior, who is going to be goes into the
tournament a fringe first round pick, can just dominate and
when most outstanding player like it is. I know there
(19:54):
are some people, particularly where I'm from in the Midwest,
that swear and I always thought this was an odd
stance to hold love college basketball hate the NBA. Now
I'm not saying you have to like the NBA more
than college basketball. Again, they're different sports to teach their own.
(20:15):
But that was always felt to me a more than
a little racially charged opinion. The love college basketball hate
the NBA take because you simply never hear that in
college football. Certainly have people that like college football more
than the NFL, but I've never once met a single
(20:35):
person who's, like, I love college football, can't stand the NFL.
But you do hear that sometimes College basketballt least where
I grew up, used to all the time, and I
always thought that was a little quizzical. But they're they're
just so vastly different products. Throughout this tournament, when guys
(20:57):
made open shots, you were impressed. In the NBA, if
a guy misses an open shot, you are shocked. And
this game, being stuck in the forties late into the
second half, just a vivid reminder of how incredibly difficult
(21:19):
it is for the guys who actually can make it
to the league. But congrats of Florida. Walter Clayton junior
going into this year, Demonse on most mock drafts was
not even a second rounder going into this tournament. In
most mock drafts, was a fringe first second rounder. And
(21:40):
now he's probably gonna be a late lottery pick. He's
a little older. He's not that athletic man, old man
that say it.
Speaker 2 (21:48):
Again, late lottery pick.
Speaker 1 (21:51):
No, it's awesome, it's great. What he has working against
him is he doesn't have the great athleticism and he's
played for five years and so or four years. So
people are always, you know, twenty two to twenty three,
how high is the ceiling? But I wonder if he
could have a Dalton Connects style draft day where when
(22:14):
he gets he gets drafted by a decent team or
a good team and people are like, oh man, he
can maybe help you immediately, even if he doesn't have
like all star potential. All right, let's go to the
NBA before we get to our NFL over unders.
Speaker 2 (22:29):
So things are gonna come down to the wire. On
the West side, everyone from the three to eight seed
are separated by max of two games, and then everybody
from the four to eight are basically tied and losses.
So how do you think it's gonna go?
Speaker 1 (22:43):
So, first of all, credit to the Rockets for removing
themselves from this group. The Rockets are I I thought
the Rockets were about to get punched in the face
by the schedule because and I think we talked about
it last week, their final five games were Thunder Warriors,
(23:12):
and then and they played those two already and won them.
And then it goes Clippers Lakers, Nuggets. But it doesn't
matter now because and this actually could work in the
Lakers favor. I don't know if what the Rockets will do,
but the Rockets just need to either win one or
(23:34):
have the Lakers lose one and they lock up the
two seed. So because the Lakers max out at fifty
two wins, the Rockets already at fifty two wins, so
if the Lakers. So here's why I say this could
work out in the Lakers favor. If the Lakers lose
tonight to the Thunder, which they will, the Rockets lock
(23:56):
the two seed. No matter what. Will that make the
Rockets in Game eighty one against the Lakers rest some
people I don't know now, maybe they would feel like
they don't need to. But set that aside. Credit to
the Rockets for handling their business. Now to the three
through eight, and we can throw it on the screen
(24:16):
the Lakers. The reason that Lakers two game lead is
actually a three game lead is this. They have the
tiebreaker over literally every single team on the screen. There,
Nuggets are the four, Clippers, of the five, Warriors, of
the six, Timbrelves of the seven, Grizzlies of the eight,
(24:38):
Lakers forty eight and thirty, Nuggets forty seven and thirty two,
and then Clippers, Warriors, Timberlves, Grizzlies all forty six and
thirty two. The Lakers have the tiebreaker with every one
of those teams. That is a symptom of the fact.
In one of the craziest stats of the season, the
Oklahoma City Thunder this year the Western Conference are thirty
(25:02):
five and thirteen. The Los Angeles Lakers against the Western
Conference are thirty four and fourteen. So why are the
Thunder gonna win sixty seven and the Lakers are right
now sitting at forty eight. Well, the Thunder are twenty
nine to one against the East and the Lakers are
(25:23):
They are fourteen and sixteen against the East. So I
mean that's the difference in the standings, but that is
given the Lakers the tiebreaker over everyone. So I think
it's gonna go like this. The Lakers lose tonight, they
beat Dallas and then maybe they beat Houston. If they
don't beat Houston, they certainly beat Portland and they are
(25:45):
the three. And now the interesting piece of it, Denver,
which is falling apart, has not recovered from the Westbrook debacle.
Joker can just put up four, forty five, fifteen and
fifteen every night, it doesn't matter. And I don't know
if you heard what Michael Malone said the other day,
(26:06):
when Michael Malone said, yeah, Jamal Murray, we hope he's
ready for the playoffs. That's concerning. I think Denver is
going to lose to Memphis. Let's assume they beat Houston,
because that'll be game eighty two for Houston, and Houston
(26:27):
likely is not gonna, you know, be playing their people.
Whether or not Denver falls to the play d will
likely be determined by how they do against Sacramento in
Denver when they play on what do they play tonight
(26:48):
or Wednesday? I should have had that up in front
of me. I apologize Denver plays tomorrow when they play
Sacramento tomorrow, the Clippers again, so much of this is
predicated by what the Rockets do as far as resting guys,
cause the Clippers play the Spurs tonight, so the Clippers
(27:10):
will win tonight, and then the Clippers play Houston next.
But the question is is Houston, assuming the Lakers lose tonight,
gonna be playing their guys. If they are, then that
should be a great game. The Clippers after that are
(27:30):
at Sacramento at Golden State. Golden State has an absolute
three consecutive layups at Phoenix. I saw Phoenix in person
at the Garden Friday night that they are cooked, so
pix Golden State will beat Phoenix, then the Spurs, who
don't want to win, then the Blazers. So Golden State
(27:54):
is going to be forty nine and thirty two going
into the final game against the Clippers, which the Clippers
are going to need to win potentially to avoid the
play in, potentially for seeding. So Warriors Clippers game eighty
two massive. Right. The Grizzlies are at Milwaukee, at Memphis,
(28:22):
and then home for Brooklyn in Utah. So Minnesota, Brooklyn,
and Utah are auto wins. Those teams are not trying.
If they beat Milwaukee tonight, then Minnesota has a real
chance of not only climbing out of the play in,
but climbing all the way to the four to five line.
(28:48):
And then Memphis it likely comes they're at Charlotte. That's
to win home for Minnesota at Denver, home for Dallas.
So let's let's do it like this. What are the
guaranteed victories on teams schedule for the Lakers Just one
(29:13):
game eighty two against Portland. The Lakers will then need
to win one other game to lock up the three
Oka se Dallas, Houston. They're gonna lose Okay sees. They've
beat Dallas or Houston for Denver, zero guaranteed victories Sacramento, Memphis, Houston,
So no guaranteed victories for the Clippers. One game the
(29:38):
Clippers put them at forty seven wins. They have the
Spurs game, then Houston, Sacramento, Golden State for Golden State,
three guaranteed victories Phoenix, Spurs, Portland, and then that Clipper
game for Minnesota. So put Golden State at forty nine wins.
(29:58):
I'm gonna do this in the so I can just
see it. So Denver forty seven with three questions, the
Clippers forty seven with three questions. As far as the games,
the Warriors forty nine, one question game Minnesota at Milwaukee,
(30:24):
at Memphis tof home for Brooklyn and Utah they're at
forty eight with two questions, and then Memphis at Charlotte
three questions. Yeah, forty exactly forty seven. So the games
that are going to determine the Western Conference playoff bracket
(30:45):
is all of Denver's games against Sacramento, Memphis in Houston,
the Clippers games against Houston, Sacramento, and Golden State. For
the Golden State that one game against the Clippers, and
for Minnesota, they're games at Milwaukee and at Memphis. That's it.
(31:11):
And so right now I would think the most likely
seeding is as follows. One Oklahoma City locked, two Houston
essentially locked, three Lakers close to essentially locked for Golden State, five, Minnesota,
(31:42):
six the Clippers, Lakers, Clippers around won't be fun. Seven
Denver eight, Memphis. That's how I think it's gonna fall out.
Speaker 2 (31:58):
Is that ideal for you? Are there any matchups things? Well?
Speaker 1 (32:02):
The ideal for the Lakers well, and by the way,
that's set the seven eight obviously, then there's a play
in situation. The ideal for the Lakers. Everybody wants Memphis.
The ideal for the Lakers is Memphis getting to the
three line. I don't think that's happening. I would would
I rather play Minnesota or would I rather play the Clippers.
(32:26):
I would rather play Clipper's been really tough since Kawhi
came back, since Kawai has been playing like this, I'd
probably rather play Minnesota now later in the playoffs, I'd
take my chances with sadly Kawhi not holding up, but
in round one with him playing like this, they're dangerous.
(32:50):
The thing is, everybody's dangerous. But if you're the Lakers,
you can't worry about round one. If it were to
play out to where you are on the opposite side
of the bracket of OKC and round two looks like
it's Golden State OKC, you sign up for that if
(33:13):
you you know, if you if you're the Lakers, and
you're only gonna have to be one of Golden State
or Oklahoma City, and they have to they play each
other in a war in round two, while with respect,
you're probably playing the Rockets. That is the ideal situation,
and I think it's what they've set themselves up.
Speaker 2 (33:34):
I think the Rockets are going to be dangerous in
the playoffs. I know you say, and they're young and
all that. I think they have a great championships.
Speaker 1 (33:46):
That's fair. They have and they have a great coach.
Dylan Brook's gonna see Lebron in a playoff series and
once again be like it's Dylan Brook's time, and I
don't trust Jaialen Green. Now, Amen Thompson is a monster
as a young player, and Shingoon's great. Shingoon's great. But
(34:11):
I again, the West is brutal. None of these are easy,
but it's you.
Speaker 2 (34:17):
Know it easy. I'm not saying like they can win, Okay,
I said, I know, I said defense wins championships. But
I think they can mess somebody's road up, think knock
a team out early.
Speaker 1 (34:29):
But you but you're kind of treating them demonte like
they're not the two seed. They're like the two seed
playing to their seed means they're in the conference finals.
I don't see that happening. Like now, listen, maybe they
maybe somebody clips clips the Lakers and they beat them,
or maybe they can beat the Lakers. But I I
think Houston, Houston has earned enough for me to wear
(34:52):
at this point. I will almost assuredly be picking them
in their Round one series. I don't I don't know,
you know what I say that I don't know if
i'd pick them against Minnesota. I think Minnesota could be tough.
Speaker 2 (35:07):
But yeah, I could see.
Speaker 1 (35:11):
Yeah, no, they could win. I just but I think
I'd probably pick Minnesota. This is always fun. So we
are going to go division by division all thirty Now
I am not I will address all thirty two teams
win totals, but there's what I've already looked at this
(35:31):
obviously quite a bit. Some of these I'm just like, oh, okay,
that line is right, Like I you know, usually Vegas
is pretty good at these, And anybody that's gonna give
you at this point in the year a lean on
all thirty two, that's too much for me. Shout out,
by the way, double shout outs. Actually, shout out to
Zach Lowe for bringing his podcast back, The Zach Lowe
(35:53):
Show signed on with Bill Simmons and The Ringer, And
shout out to Bill who last year in his preseason
Over Unders podcast went twenty seven and five with preseason
win totals, which is just remarkable. So double shout outs
to those guys. All right, this is the way too
(36:14):
Early Over Unders. Start with the AFC East. We'll do
each division basically from highest projected win total to lowest.
Demon's a give me each team and then I'll tell
you if I have a lien or not.
Speaker 2 (36:28):
First we've got the Buffalo Bills other over unders set
at eleven and a half.
Speaker 1 (36:33):
Over under set eleven and a half, heavy juice minus
won forty five on the over, and this, to me
is that number is just right, and I'll stay away
from it like that. If I had to pick one,
I would go over. However, minus won forty five's too much,
and I mean they're smart people expect the Bills at
(36:54):
this point, with healthy Josh Allen, you're gonna win double
digit games. It'd be a hard under to go with,
but I'll stay away from that.
Speaker 2 (37:03):
Next, you got the Dolphins over under at eight and
a half.
Speaker 1 (37:07):
That's exactly that's the end, with a little bit of
juice on the under minus one thirty. That is to
me a exactly right line. I think the Dolphins will
win eight or nine games. That is perfect. Last year,
by the way, the preseason total was ten and a half.
But I am that to me is a stay away.
Speaker 2 (37:28):
Next one, we got the Patriots. They're over unders eight
and a half, all.
Speaker 1 (37:34):
Right, So this is juice to the under as it
should be. It's minus one forty to the under. This is,
in my opinion, an outrageous total. So now I should
note and I should have done this earlier on it all,
you always have to look at what divisions each division's
(38:00):
So everyone has their three strength of schedule games a year,
but then you also play your own division, and then
what are the other divisions you play? For the AFC East,
they draw one of the toughest divisions in the AFC
North and probably the weakest division in the NFC South.
(38:21):
So that to me, you basically that's a wash. And
so the reason I'm saying this is, whenever you're doing
these preseason win totals, check and see what divisions the
other uh you know that those teams are playing, and
kind of power rank the divisions in your own head
(38:44):
and then figure out, you know, are they do they
get two of the easier ones two of the harder
ones or is it like this where you get one
tough one in the AFC North, one easy one in
the NFC South and it evens out. So what the
Patriots have going for them is the last play schedule,
(39:05):
they're extra games.
Speaker 2 (39:09):
Well maybe side of the Bills.
Speaker 1 (39:11):
But here's the thing. They're really bad and I just
don't know that they have done enough to have a
competent offense. They upgraded it, coach Drake may should be
better in year two, that offensive line will still be
a disaster. They for the third consecutive year, maybe fourth,
(39:33):
do not have a single draftable fantasy football skill player.
There is not a single wide receiver, running back, or
tight end on that team that you would want on
your fantasy football team. I don't think Stefan Diggs is
gonna have a big impact. I think the Patriots would
(39:56):
be thrilled to win eight games. I'm sorry to win
six games. The fact that this team could win eight
games and the underhits is outrageous. I love the under
for the New England Patriots. I will take under eight
and a half, and that's a bet we can put
(40:16):
on my season long. I think that thing drops to
seven and a half before the year, especially when the
draft plays out and they aren't able to get Abdulla
Carter or Travis Hunter. Not that a rookie should really
move a win total. I will take under for the Patriots.
Last AFC's team, Demantsey.
Speaker 2 (40:33):
Oh We got the Jets. They're over unders five and
a half.
Speaker 1 (40:37):
Yeah, I will take the over here. So they got
so much better in from a culture, stability, maturity standpoint
in the coaching staff. They are not gonna be under
(40:58):
the spotlight like they were like last year. I think
that it will be refreshing for that team to not
have this For everyone on that team who spent their
whole career with the Jets, every year of their career,
(41:20):
the only story, the only thing people were focused on
was the quarterback, whether it was Zach Wilson going to
get it together, Aaron Rodgers coming to save us, Aaron
Rodgers Tours Achilles, Aaron Rodgers last year. This year, it's
just going to be about Aaron Glenn trying to set
a culture, running the damn ball, playing good defense. They
(41:44):
I think that they won five games last year, and
I think this year they should be better, not necessarily
better at quarterback, but not worse at quarterback, and better
a little bit better everywhere else and not have the
(42:04):
energy constantly sucked out of the room. And I think
staying out of the spotlight because they are not going
to be a disgusted team, will be good for them.
I could absolutely see Aaron Glenn getting there, that team
finding its way to seven wins. I like the Jets over.
So for the AFC East, the Bills, I am staying
(42:25):
away from the Dolphins, I am staying away from I
am on the Patriots under, and I am on the
Jets over. Let's go Demons to the AFC North.
Speaker 2 (42:36):
We got the Ravens at the over unders eleven and
a half.
Speaker 1 (42:41):
This is a tentative over for Baltimore. Now, I would
not bet the under on any year you have a
healthy Lamar Jackson. Okay, he's an all time regular season
player and just guarantees you, if he's healthy, double digit wins.
The reason I'm saying tentative is not because I might
(43:01):
go under, but I'm not sure if that's a bet
all actually make, but I do. It does feel like
last year was kind of a worst case scenario regular
season for them and they still won twelve games, and
so that to me is I lean over. You feel
(43:27):
like they're always gonna be well coached. The defense came
around by the end of last year. Lamar is unbelievable,
and you anticipate that they can win twelve thirteen games
almost every season. The juice is dead even essentially on
the over of the under. The Lamar injury stuff does
(43:51):
worry you a bit, so I would just want to
see him get through the preseason and offseason everything totally healthy.
I also, before I make any better on the Ravens, Demonse,
I have to make sure that Health and Human Services,
if that department still exists, isn't projecting like a bad
cold and flu season, because that absolutely can cost the
(44:12):
Ravens a game, because Lamar has the immune system of
a small Victorian child. As a funny tweet said once, yeah,
well of course, and so but I lean over for Baltimore.
Speaker 2 (44:26):
Next Bengals over under nine and a half.
Speaker 1 (44:32):
This number is just right. I would stay away from it.
The juice is heavily heavily on the over and at
minus one fifty. And I don't know why we would
think they're going to be a much different team than
(44:53):
last year. A great offense, a bad defense, score a
ton of points, lose a lot of games they shouldn't
because defense is bad. And so I that to me
is a stayaway. Next team, demanse.
Speaker 2 (45:08):
Oh, we got the Steelers. They're over unders eight and
a half.
Speaker 1 (45:11):
I'll take the under to me, this is now that
means I'm betting Tomlin to not continue as well. You
know what, that's not true. I could win this bet
and have Tomlin's record extend because it's never at a
losing season, So eight eight and one keeps that thing going. Uh,
(45:35):
not that because the tie doesn't count as half a win. Sorry,
drop some tie doesn't count as half a win when
it comes to this. But I will go under because
one of two things is going to happen, Demnsey, one
of three things. Pardon me. Either Aaron Rodgers is not
going there and they are starting Mason Rudolph, or Aaron
(46:01):
Rodgers is not going there and they are starting rookie
either Shadoor Sanders or Jackson Dark or Aaron Rodgers is
gonna announce tomorrow on McAfee or sometime in a month
he is going there and bring that entire circus with him.
And I think nothing would be more poetic than us
(46:25):
finding out what's the only thing that can end Mike
tomlin streak of above five hundred or better years, And
the answer is bringing in forty two year old diva
Aaron Rodgers. So I will go under for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Now,
remember last year I was heavy on them, missing the
playoffs and going under and all of that, and they
(46:47):
cost me a ton of futures. So I could be wrong,
but I will go under on Aaron Rodgers or the
Steelers without Aaron Rodgers. Either way, I think it's time
for a bit of a reset in Pittsburgh. I'll go
under there next.
Speaker 2 (47:01):
All right, Uh, you got the Browns. They're over unders
four and a half.
Speaker 1 (47:05):
I mean, we don't know who's gonna be playing quarterback
for them, we don't know what they're doing in the draft.
That number is just really a slap in their face.
A number that low four and a half. You just
don't see that very often. I'm gonna stay away. I
can't bet under four and a half. But I also
(47:25):
obviously A'm not gonna bet on the Cleveland Browns. So
thus far, through two divisions, I lean Patriot or I'm
heavy on Patriots under. I like the Jets over. I
lean Steelers or Ravens over, and I like the Steelers under.
Let's go to the AFC South.
Speaker 2 (47:46):
Oh, we got the Texans. They're over unders set at
nine and a half.
Speaker 1 (47:50):
That's just right. I worry about their injuries at wide receiver,
you know they will. Nico is a guy who's an
excellent player. He's dealt with injuries in his career. Obviously,
Tank Dell is going to be out all year. They
didn't bring back Digs, they traded away Tonsil, so you worry,
or they just changed offensive coordinators. But the defense should
(48:13):
be really good and Demiko's excellent. CJ's really good. So
it feels like a nine or ten win team. Will
stay away from it.
Speaker 2 (48:19):
Next we got the Colts. They're over under seven and
a half.
Speaker 1 (48:23):
I you know what, I I don't have a ton
of Colts opinions this year. I don't really want to
spend a lot of time thinking about the Colts. I'm
not that interested in the Colts. Seven and a half
sounds right. We'll stay away from it. You don't have
to bet everything shit to.
Speaker 2 (48:38):
Who My co worker he's he's a big fan of
the Colts, and he always says that everybody says the
Colts is just like nobody.
Speaker 1 (48:46):
He correct, Yeah, there's there's there. I mean, basically, that's
this whole division. Both of the Souths just get totally
you know what I mean, Distrigard.
Speaker 2 (48:58):
But next uh got the Jags. They're over under seven
and a half.
Speaker 1 (49:03):
I'm back, baby Jags. All right over better head, new
head coach Trevor Healthy, Brian Thomas Junior in year two,
all of these things.
Speaker 2 (49:22):
I think the right way is definitely go over here.
But if they finished with less than that, what happens
with Trevor Lawrence after this season.
Speaker 1 (49:30):
Is not great?
Speaker 2 (49:31):
Right?
Speaker 1 (49:31):
Yeah? No, no, then people start they start talking about,
you know, how can we get out of the contract
like all that stuff. It's not great, which is why
it's not gonna happen. Trevor Lawrence's returned to glory this season.
He's listen, I know people don't you know, we're sick
of me saying this, but it is true. Trevor Lawrence.
(49:54):
He's just twenty five man, twenty five years old. He's
been saying, age's bo Nick's basically like. He had a
brutal rookie year his second year, led them to win
the division and a great playoff comeback. His third year,
they were eight and three until he suffered injuries to
(50:18):
three different parts of his body in three consecutive weeks
and had to miss time in their season fell apart
and last year season from hell, I'm not quitting you,
Trevor over Jaggs put it in pen. I'm betting that one.
They are getting back in the playoff mix. That's all
I'm saying. Just in the playoff mix and Liam going,
(50:40):
I don't care if you said Duval weird, you got
the best out of Baker. I like you. I am
with the Jacksonville Jaguars over seven and a half.
Speaker 2 (50:49):
Next with you there, you got the Titans. They're over
unders five and a half.
Speaker 1 (50:54):
See with plus one twenty five on the under, and
they're gonna be starting a rookie quarterback from day one.
Give me the under, Like, give me the under with
cam Ward even if he's good. I think that that
there's gonna be a lot of growing pains. I don't
(51:15):
know that I trust Brian Callahan. It's and I'm getting
plus money on it. Like now this one, I will
admit I am going to bet this, but I am
going to wait to bet this because since it's minus
one point fifty on the over all these lines. Obviously,
by the way, courtesy of our friends at DraftKings, I
(51:36):
should have been saying that earlier. Uh plus one twenty
five on the under. This might move to six and
a half, and I love it at six and a half.
I like it a lot at five and a half.
I will bet this at some point, just not this moment,
but starting a rookie quarterback, shakey head coach, and oh,
(51:58):
by the way, line is an odd subject to change.
I need to tell you guys, but you guys all
know that you're Titans.
Speaker 2 (52:02):
Get six wins, can war you mean he said, I
mean they can was going to go to the super
Bowl last year. He's a rookie quarterback.
Speaker 1 (52:10):
Yeah, but the so a couple things. The Bears were
coming off a seven win season, not three and fourteen.
I was wrong about the Bears coach. The Bears ended
up having a dufus coach and Calb's way way, way,
way way better.
Speaker 2 (52:23):
Than cam Ward.
Speaker 1 (52:25):
Yeah, it's not even close. All right, finish it off
on the AFC West.
Speaker 2 (52:28):
So we got the Chiefs. They're over runners eleven and
a half. This is insulting, insulting. The highest win total
projected wind total.
Speaker 1 (52:39):
Yeah it should be twelve and a half. They won
seventeen games last year. They won fifteen in the regular season,
and everyone told me they weren't that good. They they
they could. They went fifteen and one last year in
games mahomes play because they sat out Week seventeen. The oh,
(52:59):
I haven't been giving you guys the division stuff. Darn it.
Here's the other thing that I really like for the
whole AFC West. They're division games, as they get all
four teams in the AFC South awesome, and they get
the NFC East, which is only as in my opinion,
(53:22):
one great team in the Eagles. Now, obviously the chief
strength of schedule games are brutal their strength of schedule,
So they get their own division plus the AFC South
and the AFCAS and then the strength of schedule games
are Baltimore, Buffalo, Detroit. So that's the strength of schedule
is you know, outrageous. But the Chiefs have games against
(53:46):
Texans called Jags Titans, and then four more games against
or two more games I should say, Cowboys Giant. There's
six games they win. They go five and one in
the division. Every year, there's your eleven games. And so
(54:09):
then let's say they only go four and two in
the division this year, so now you're at ten. That
would mean of the following games, Detroit Baltimore, Buffalo, Philly, Washington.
He's got to win two of them, and so I
(54:33):
the betting the Chiefs over every year since Mahomes has
been there, hell, since Andy's been there. But it's been
super profitable since Malomes have been there. They've hit it
six of seven years. The only year they didn't hit
it was two years ago and they made up for
that by winning the Super Bowl. So yeah, I'm not
the Chiefs stats an over.
Speaker 2 (54:54):
The Chiefs faced the Eagles next year and it's going
to be in Kansas City winning the season. Would you
want to see that game?
Speaker 1 (55:00):
When?
Speaker 2 (55:01):
Would you want that?
Speaker 1 (55:06):
Great question?
Speaker 2 (55:08):
First game of the season.
Speaker 1 (55:09):
No, because it's just like no, because the Chiefs don't
get to Well, first of all, that can't happen because
the Eagles are the defending champs. They get to host
the you know, a season opener on Thursday, so it
can't be the first game of the year. Here's what
I don't care when it is. I just want both
teams to be on regular rest. I don't want one
(55:33):
team to be coming off a weird schedule. I you
know what, the whatever it is. There are some rumors,
uh the the that the Chiefs could start the year
in Brazil, but I so I don't know, but just
I just want both teams on regular rest, all right,
(55:55):
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co slash b ball. All right, demonse, let's go back
to the AFC West. We just did the Chiefs over
eleven and a half. Give me the last few.
Speaker 2 (58:54):
Oh, we got the charges that are over UNDERDS nine
and a half, so and I'm gonna.
Speaker 1 (58:59):
Lump the Ronco's in with them as well. They're also
at nine and a half. To me, both of these
are stay aways. I think both of these are gonna
be very trendy bets. I think a lot of people
are going to like either or both of these teams
to hit double digit wins. They both hit it last year,
(59:20):
they both made the playoffs last year. I now they
have the same benefit the Chiefs have, which is the
AFC South and the NFC East. But I think people
are a little too high on the Chargers, who I
don't think are going to have the turnover numbers they
had last year. And I think people are a little
(59:41):
too high on bon Knicks. Now again, if I thought
people were way way off, I'd be saying go under.
But I think both. I think both those teams are
gonna be hovering around at the end of the year
eight nine to ten wins, so I would stay away,
and then that gives us the Raiders Demons.
Speaker 2 (01:00:01):
And they're over under six malf.
Speaker 1 (01:00:05):
I love the over for the Las Vegas Raiders. I
know that probably shocks people, but when you combine the
following things. They had a bottom three coach last year,
they replaced him with a top ten coach in Pete Carroll.
They had a bottom three quarterback situation. They replace him
with top twelve quarterback and Gino Smith. They have a
(01:00:30):
last place schedule. They are going to be able to
draft an impact player at number six. Pete, I think
maybe Ashton Genty. Pete Carroll wants to win. Right now,
everyone is gonna be all over the Broncos of the Chargers.
I think it's the Raiders that could finish second in
(01:00:53):
the AFC West. I think Pete Carroll has the Raiders
fighting for the final wild card spot in the AFC
in year one. I like the Raiders over six and
a half. So my AFC bets that I like Patriots
(01:01:13):
under eight and a half, Jets over five and a half,
Steelers under eight and a half, Ravens over eleven and
a half, Jags over seven and a half, Titans under
five and a half, Chiefs over eleven and a half,
and the Las Vegas Raiders under six and a half.
(01:01:34):
In the least surprising news ever, Demon's a I went
way too long, and we're gonna do the NFC on Thursday,
so I don't want to rush through the NFC. But uh,
you know what I mean? Yeah, yeah, we have a
ton more to go. So well, I liked how we
(01:01:54):
did this. Do some NBA news and everything Thursday to
start the show, do the over unders for the second
half of the show. I thought that worked well, and
so AFC we just gave them to you. NFC we
will do on Thursday. Let's ask some listener questions demands.
(01:02:19):
You have a question?
Speaker 2 (01:02:20):
Well, yeah, I mean I saw on Twitter that they
were bringing back dire Wolves. I hit Daniel up about
this and said that should go somewhere else in the show.
It was really bad take, But I think it's what's
going on.
Speaker 1 (01:02:34):
Know what's the take? Let me hear your take.
Speaker 2 (01:02:36):
I think that's insane that they're that they're messing with
stuff like that. I don't know what reason we would
have for it, unless it's like beneficial for the I
don't know.
Speaker 1 (01:02:47):
So it's not a bad it's not a bad take.
It's first of all. Second of all, hand up, not
afraid to admit things. I thought dire wolves were always
make believe. I didn't know that was a thing. I
knew they were in Game of Thrones, but I thought
they were make believe like dragons, like I thought it
(01:03:08):
was just something from fantasy. I didn't know, like I
obviously knew. Well, that's a separate discussion there is did
dragons ever exist? Is not as dumb of a question
as some people think. I will say that, but set
that aside. I obviously knew, like you know, like wooly
(01:03:31):
mammoths existed and the Megalodon existed. I didn't know that
horse sized wolves existed. I thought that was purely from
Game of Thrones. So I know that this is a
little Jurassic Park ish, and that didn't go well, but
(01:03:54):
I think it would be sick man if we could
reanimate some of the giant animal life from world history
and put it on an island somewhere and let them
and like see it. As long as they can't fly, man,
(01:04:16):
as long as they can't fly and can't swim, I
think i'd be I'd love to see a dire wolf.
I think it'd be awesome. I don't know they existed.
I get it's a little scary. I understand, yeah, And
I'm not necessarily for the dinosaurs coming back.
Speaker 2 (01:04:33):
I mean I just saw, like, I don't think it
was a terrordacty. There was a specific name for it,
but the beak was probably about as long as this room,
and like just to imagine that thing was in the air,
like people have not grown up.
Speaker 1 (01:04:46):
The producer asking that I was stop watching Jurassic Park
after forty minutes. They made a lot of grievous errors
there and creating the ones that can fly obvious the
fly and swim ones are. To me, that's a big mistake.
But we if we had I keep reading about these
islands that no people live on that we just added
(01:05:08):
tariffs to I didn't even know about these islands Head Island,
in the place all the penguins live or whatever. There's
these islands that no one lives on. What if we
reanimated them there? I'm not against it. Hayes asks the
question that you know people have been wondering.
Speaker 2 (01:05:25):
So going, Hey, Nick, are you still training for the triathlon?
And if so, what is it scheduled for? That's over?
Speaker 1 (01:05:32):
It's not yet scheduled. It's not over. It's not over.
My training has hit a hiccup, I will admit, but
I've got a lot of time. I've got a lot
of time. And so am i as gung ho as
(01:05:52):
I was not quite? But all your mom has been
bullying me because we have this family trip scheduled for
early July. Yeah, and she's been going to the gym
every single day and she just comes home and body
shames me. And her latest thing is she is just
(01:06:13):
convinced that she is stronger than me, like we were.
I know, I know. So like yesterday we just bought
a new couch and it's getting delivered today. So yesterday
we reorganized the living room and so I had to
like move around the chairs and everything, and every chance
(01:06:35):
she got, she was just like, oh, do you need
me to move? That is that for you? Like just
constant bullying right.
Speaker 2 (01:06:44):
For the manhood? That that is all blow the belt.
But you know what's what's new with with my mother?
Speaker 1 (01:06:49):
Uh? Yeah, all right, go to Chris's question.
Speaker 2 (01:06:53):
Chris is how do you predict win totals of the
schedules ain't even out yet. You got a factor in
weeknight games, can say in a road ships, et cetera.
Speaker 1 (01:07:01):
No, so that's fair, Like we know who people are playing,
we don't know when they're playing. So that's why I
said these are I think there were only two that
I said I'm betting right now. One is the Patriots.
I don't care if the Patriots got seventeen home games,
they're not winning nine, and so I like the Patriots
under But you're right, you do have the factor like
(01:07:22):
rest advantage things like that. But we do know who
everyone's playing, we just don't know when those games are,
so I think, but it's you know, so it's a
fair point. But I think NFL has done a really
good job of making schedule release feel like a huge
event even though we already know who everyone's playing. All right,
(01:07:43):
everybody like great? Subscribe review. Please do that helps us out.
We will see you guys on Thursday. Great job demands
a great job. Everyone at Blue Duck, everyone at DraftKings,
everyone at the Volume. We appreciate you all. Talk to
you guys soon. What's right
Welcome in walch Draight with the great episode three seventeen,
fresh off a wild NCAA Tournament championship game and maybe
wilder Western Conference playoff bracket as we head into the
final five days of the season, and we have right
(00:21):
now five teams all with thirty two losses both of
those topics. Shortly on the show, and then as promised
last week, we will do our annual NFL Over Unders
NFL Win Total show. These these are not locked for us.
We will do our preseason gambling show post draft. Obviously
(00:47):
it's post free agency, late in training camp where we
actually make these bets. Now the heads up for the
gambling stuff we're doing shortly. There might be a few
that we like so much that we just say we're
gonna bet them right now. We will if we say that,
we will mark those down and count those toward our
(01:10):
season long ledger that we you know, do the accounting
for at the very end of the football season. But
some of these are just leans in one direction or another.
We'll do all of that, uh, before we get to that.
Welcome in, Demanse, Demanse, how are you I know this
is the single most banal topic of any phone call
(01:30):
or even a podcast. But I am curious. What is
the weather like in Los Angeles right now?
Speaker 2 (01:37):
It's pretty amazing, pretty good, I'd.
Speaker 1 (01:40):
Say it is. Still It's April eighth. The Masters starts Thursday.
It's forty something degrees in New York. I am. It
has gone on long enough that your mother came downstairs
today and just said to me, I think I need
to go away for a month. Not me, her, She's like,
(02:04):
I just I just need to go somewhere warm for
a month. She said, the weather is just sapping my energy.
So at some point the way, it's gotta get warm
in New York. At that point, deep, it's man. Usually
April's like a top tier New York month. Whatever. Nobody cares.
(02:25):
All right, here's what missed the cut. Alex Ovechkin breaks
a record that I did not think was breakable, the
Gretzky scoring record. Now, let me also say something else
I don't. I think it's very important on this show
to not pretend to be an expert on everything. People
get themselves in trouble. You pretend to be an expert
(02:45):
on everything, you might all of a sudden find yourself
talking lebron in the morning, Govetchkin in the afternoons, and
the Gaza Strip at night. No one would do that
and then seriously say they're gonna run for president and
then be wrong about all three. I try not to,
you know, pretend that I know to mix some tariff
stuff in there as well be an expert on everything.
(03:07):
But I'm a diehard sports fan, and I'm enough of
a diehard sports fan to know Wayne Gretzky is the
only athlete I've ever seen that if you go to
his Wikipedia page, even though the Internet is endless and
a page can just scroll forever, and you're like, hey,
what records does Wayne Gretzky have, you have to go
to a separate Wikipedia page where it's like, actually, all
(03:30):
of Wayne Gretzky's records are here. So I just assumed
this was unbreakable. And then when I heard Ovechkin broke it,
or when I obviously I knew he was going to
break it the last month or so it's been in
the news, and I just said, again, folks can say
bad sports fan, Nick for not knowing this. I assumed
Ovechkin must be like a Bobby Ors style guy that
(03:53):
played until his mid forties, and then I saw alex
Ovechkin after he broke the record, and I was like, oh, confirmed,
this guy played until his late forties. Turns out alex
Ovechkin is thirty nine years old. That is a hard
thirty nine for alex Ovechkin. He's younger than me now
and and incredibly wealthy. Say it again, No, it's not
(04:15):
just the it's not just the greay. It just like
and maybe it's the you know, the the that coming
up you know in Russia is tough. I don't know, man,
but alex Ovechkin, for a guy that rich and that successful,
you know, that's a hard thirty nine. But unbelievable. He
breaks s Gretzky's record. Everyone thought it was unbreakable. Here's
something almost as unbelievable. Gino Wriama Demonse has coached in
(04:40):
thirteen National Championship Games. That in and of itself is remarkable.
He's twelve and one in those games. Twelve and one
in the National Championship Games. I'm so happy for Paige.
I think she you know that her recruiting class, the
top five for her high school class page, Angel Caitlin,
(05:07):
Oh the Bank, Cameron Brink Yes. And then Cardosa. Those five,
all of them champions, oddly except for Caitlyn and Page
had to stick around a year longer because she blew
out her knee. She got her title. Hopefully Juju can
have the same trajectory gets delayed because you blew out
(05:29):
the knee, goes and win the title. And then the
other big game this weekend that didn't miss the couple.
We'll do it quickly and then we'll get to it more.
In the West playoff push segment was the Lakers dog
walking the Thunder and my what, what's your little woe?
Speaker 2 (05:49):
Thunder?
Speaker 1 (05:52):
They weren't in that game. I mean, they played all
their guys and the I said on the TV show
Friday that the perfect weekend for the Lakers was beating
the Thunder. I'm sorry, beating the Pelicans, beating the Thunder
and then sitting everyone Tuesday and when they play the
(06:15):
Thunder again tonight. And I don't know if you've seen
the points spread in that game, but it's okay see
minus fifteen because Vegas thinks that's exactly what the Lakers
are gonna do, and basically denying the Thunder the opportunity
for any get back, leaving in the back of their head.
(06:37):
Wait a minute, Luca knocked us out of the playoffs
last year. They just crushed us this year. Luca's team,
we still have no one to guard him. That to
me is absolutely ideal, particularly when the other reason I
said they should rest guys is they play they being
(06:59):
the Lakers the MAVs tomorrow. So the Lakers since Saturday
will have played the Thunder the Thunder again and then
the MAVs. The MAVs have not played since Saturday, so
the Lakers it would be their third game in four nights.
The MAVs would be their first game in four nights.
So now they're letting their guys rest and be ready
(07:21):
for that game knowing and again more on this in
the Western Rammicks playoff bracket stuff, if the Lakers go
two and two in their final four, they lock up
the three seed. If we just chalk tonight up as
a loss, what it means is MAVs Rockets Tanking Blazers
final game of the year. If you win two of
(07:42):
those games, you lock up the three seed, which is
gold for the Western Conference. My other takeaway for thunder
Lakers before we get to last night's championship game. The Thunder,
more so than any team the Western Conference, have so
(08:03):
much depth defensively, and even the Thunder found themselves in
a spot where it's like, hold on, if my best
wing defender is on Luca and my second best wing
defender is on Lebron, then who the hell is guarding
Austin Reeves. And when you look at the Western Conference
(08:26):
playoffs and you look across every team the Lakers could
play and say power rank their wing defenders, all of
these teams have at least one really good one, a
couple have two pretty good ones. Only the Thunder have
(08:50):
three really good ones. Everyone else, Austin Reeves is just
going to be feasting on a meeting bad defensive player.
And the Rockets have two awesome ones in Amen Thompson
and Dylan Brooks, But who's the third? And so that's
(09:12):
going to be a sneaky, huge edge for the Lakers
in any series. As far as I am not going
to act as if because of that game, oh there's
you know, systemic issues with the Thunder, and Thunder gonna
win sixty seven games, they're awesome. The concerns, however, would
(09:34):
be as follows. The youth is just never seeing a
team this young make the finals, much less win it.
Everyone has said that is your second best guy good enough?
That's a Jalen Williams chet Holmgren question. We'll see how
will the playoff whistle impact Shay? He seemed to get
(09:57):
it this weekend against the Rockets and the Lakers and
it impacted them a bit. And then this is the
last piece of it that I have not heard enough
people make the point of when it comes to handicapping
the Thunder for this championship. One of the reasons the
Thunder have this insane point differential is they are legit
(10:18):
twelve quality NBA players deep, and so even when they
have guys out, and certainly when they go to their bench,
their bench is so much better than the other team's
bench in the playoffs. How good your ninth, tenth, eleventh,
and twelve guys are is mostly irrelevant because you're really
(10:38):
just playing seven or eight guys, So will that edge
be muted a bit? Those are all legitimate questions. Remember,
like rate subscribe review, We're just this close to two
hundred thousand on YouTube. That'd be awesome to get there
during you know, maybe the play in of the or
the NBA Playoffs, certainly in the first round so and
(11:02):
you can watch us live on YouTube. Will also, by
the way, be doing these emergency kind of reaction shows
throughout the NBA Playoffs. You can get those not just
on YouTube, where we'd love for you to like, rate, subscribe,
and review. It helps us a ton, but also on iTunes, Spotify, everything.
But now to the championship game last night Demon Day.
(11:22):
I was pulling for Houston because of our ties to Houston.
I also like Kelvin Sampson, tell us what happened?
Speaker 2 (11:31):
Well, yeah, I mean Houston went from winning that crazy
one against Duke on Saturday. I mean we have I've
been pulling for Houston, but that rep should be investigated
from that game on Saturday. Okay, but yeah, so they
lost the crazy one to Florida yesterday off of the
potential double drib or whatever. What are your thoughts on
the tournament and how it ended.
Speaker 1 (11:52):
I mean, I have a lot of thoughts here. Houston
did not get a shot up, not on the final possession,
on their final four possessions. They didn't hit the rim
(12:13):
seemingly for the last two minutes of that game. And
somebody had a tweet that I wish I could give
them credit because I thought it was really funny and
actually pretty kind of profound almost talking about Houston's style
because they're just such a ferocious, relentless, tough defensive team.
(12:36):
Where they said, I imagine Houston's practices are just three
hours of suicides and punching each other in the face,
and that kind of is how they played. But there's
downside to that, which is they never you never felt
like they were against a great team going to be
(13:00):
able to definitively put them away. And they had opportunities
against Florida to put them away when that defense was
just giving Florida fits, and Florida's you know, stuck around,
just like Houston did against Duke, just long enough to
where you see the college kids tighten up and Houston's
(13:22):
kids tightened up. Walter Clayton Junior, you know, had a
great final flourish in this game after you know, with
five minutes left in this game, it looked like this
was gonna be the first game in two years he
had a sixty one game streak of hitting a three.
He didn't hit one until late in the game. He
(13:43):
obviously didn't score his first basket until late late in
the first half or was it early second half, I
don't even remember, but Florida was able to stick around
and then steal it at the end. Not getting a
shot off in that spot is just the stuff of
apps nightmares for a coach. But they didn't get a
shot off like it was if you just look at
(14:06):
what Houston did over the final two minutes, because one
of the possessions they did get a shot up, it
was essentially an air balled layup. They were getting no
good looks. And when you go to the waning moments
of the game, after LJ. Cryer made missed a layup
(14:28):
and then tipped in his own miss with two thirty left,
here were Houston's possessions. Made a free throw, then missed
a free throw, badly missed the three offensive rebound miss jumper,
offensive rebound, turnover, turnover, turnover, turnover. To not get a
(15:00):
shot on the rim in the final two minutes of
the ninety seconds of the game is just so crushing
and you feel so sick for Kelvin Samson.
Speaker 2 (15:15):
Yeah, but my I mean.
Speaker 1 (15:17):
Because again, yeah, seventy say it again that Oh yeah, well, no,
I'm talking about the coach LJ. Cryer. LJ. Cryer the
back to back turnovers and then Emmanuel Sharp had the
back to back turnovers late. I mean both there. But
for Kelvin who was a great coach, got a show
(15:39):
cause penalty and got run out of college basketball for
a while, came back and what he's done at Houston
is remarkable since he's been there. It's our buddy. Buddy's
probably too strong. But the kid we root for, Quinton Grimes,
you know, was there and they were a legitimate contender
(16:03):
since he's been there. So Calvin Sampson took over a
mediocre team. His first year, they're thirteen to nineteen. His
next two years they're in the NIC and then since then,
this is what they've done. Twenty seven wins, and they
won a tournament game, thirty three wins, and get popped
in the Sweet sixteen, then COVID year, then twenty eight wins,
(16:28):
Final four, thirty two wins, Elite eight, thirty three wins,
Sweet sixteen, thirty two wins, Sweet sixteen, thirty five wins,
lose the championship game by two, and you know, you
(16:50):
you hope he has another great shot. You don't know
if he's gonna have another great shot. He turned seventy
next season, he'll keep coaching. But man, oh man, it
as much as they stole one from Duke, they absolutely
let one get away. And so I had two recurring
(17:13):
thoughts in that game. One was Duke had to be
watching this game, like, you gotta be fucking kidding me,
Like the we we should be in this game. And
you know they they their collapse was different than Houston's. There.
I know you put it on that you hate. I mean,
(17:35):
it's a bad call. Bad college drafts are bad, and
the review process in college basketball is truly truly awful.
And what nobody ever acknowledges when they're like, oh they
have to get it right and oh, we've got the
tenths of a second could matter. And I bring up
every time, you know what also matters fatigue and these
(17:59):
this idea that being the better conditioned team should you
should lose all edge from that in the final two
minutes of these games, because every out of bounds call
there's going to be a one to four minute break
to review it. I hate it so much, But set
that aside. My other takeaway from really this entire tournament,
(18:23):
but certainly the final four. We had four number one seats.
We had by kin Palm rankings, four of the best
college basketball teams of the last decade all playing. And
despite that, you've never seen a better illustration for the
(18:47):
glaring and massive gap between the talent and skill level
between guys who are good enough to be starters and
big time players for the best college basketball teams in
the country and guys who are good enough to play
(19:08):
in the NBA. Like college basketball in the modern era,
where guys don't stick around typically for that long, the
best players never do, and teams don't stick together. The
gap between that and the skill and talent and ability
(19:30):
it takes to play in the NBA is the widest
it's ever been, and it's why a guy like Walter
Clayton junior, who is going to be goes into the
tournament a fringe first round pick, can just dominate and
when most outstanding player like it is. I know there
(19:54):
are some people, particularly where I'm from in the Midwest,
that swear and I always thought this was an odd
stance to hold love college basketball hate the NBA. Now
I'm not saying you have to like the NBA more
than college basketball. Again, they're different sports to teach their own.
(20:15):
But that was always felt to me a more than
a little racially charged opinion. The love college basketball hate
the NBA take because you simply never hear that in
college football. Certainly have people that like college football more
than the NFL, but I've never once met a single
(20:35):
person who's, like, I love college football, can't stand the NFL.
But you do hear that sometimes College basketballt least where
I grew up, used to all the time, and I
always thought that was a little quizzical. But they're they're
just so vastly different products. Throughout this tournament, when guys
(20:57):
made open shots, you were impressed. In the NBA, if
a guy misses an open shot, you are shocked. And
this game, being stuck in the forties late into the
second half, just a vivid reminder of how incredibly difficult
(21:19):
it is for the guys who actually can make it
to the league. But congrats of Florida. Walter Clayton junior
going into this year, Demonse on most mock drafts was
not even a second rounder going into this tournament. In
most mock drafts, was a fringe first second rounder. And
(21:40):
now he's probably gonna be a late lottery pick. He's
a little older. He's not that athletic man, old man
that say it.
Speaker 2 (21:48):
Again, late lottery pick.
Speaker 1 (21:51):
No, it's awesome, it's great. What he has working against
him is he doesn't have the great athleticism and he's
played for five years and so or four years. So
people are always, you know, twenty two to twenty three,
how high is the ceiling? But I wonder if he
could have a Dalton Connects style draft day where when
(22:14):
he gets he gets drafted by a decent team or
a good team and people are like, oh man, he
can maybe help you immediately, even if he doesn't have
like all star potential. All right, let's go to the
NBA before we get to our NFL over unders.
Speaker 2 (22:29):
So things are gonna come down to the wire. On
the West side, everyone from the three to eight seed
are separated by max of two games, and then everybody
from the four to eight are basically tied and losses.
So how do you think it's gonna go?
Speaker 1 (22:43):
So, first of all, credit to the Rockets for removing
themselves from this group. The Rockets are I I thought
the Rockets were about to get punched in the face
by the schedule because and I think we talked about
it last week, their final five games were Thunder Warriors,
(23:12):
and then and they played those two already and won them.
And then it goes Clippers Lakers, Nuggets. But it doesn't
matter now because and this actually could work in the
Lakers favor. I don't know if what the Rockets will do,
but the Rockets just need to either win one or
(23:34):
have the Lakers lose one and they lock up the
two seed. So because the Lakers max out at fifty
two wins, the Rockets already at fifty two wins, so
if the Lakers. So here's why I say this could
work out in the Lakers favor. If the Lakers lose
tonight to the Thunder, which they will, the Rockets lock
(23:56):
the two seed. No matter what. Will that make the
Rockets in Game eighty one against the Lakers rest some
people I don't know now, maybe they would feel like
they don't need to. But set that aside. Credit to
the Rockets for handling their business. Now to the three
through eight, and we can throw it on the screen
(24:16):
the Lakers. The reason that Lakers two game lead is
actually a three game lead is this. They have the
tiebreaker over literally every single team on the screen. There,
Nuggets are the four, Clippers, of the five, Warriors, of
the six, Timbrelves of the seven, Grizzlies of the eight,
(24:38):
Lakers forty eight and thirty, Nuggets forty seven and thirty two,
and then Clippers, Warriors, Timberlves, Grizzlies all forty six and
thirty two. The Lakers have the tiebreaker with every one
of those teams. That is a symptom of the fact.
In one of the craziest stats of the season, the
Oklahoma City Thunder this year the Western Conference are thirty
(25:02):
five and thirteen. The Los Angeles Lakers against the Western
Conference are thirty four and fourteen. So why are the
Thunder gonna win sixty seven and the Lakers are right
now sitting at forty eight. Well, the Thunder are twenty
nine to one against the East and the Lakers are
(25:23):
They are fourteen and sixteen against the East. So I
mean that's the difference in the standings, but that is
given the Lakers the tiebreaker over everyone. So I think
it's gonna go like this. The Lakers lose tonight, they
beat Dallas and then maybe they beat Houston. If they
don't beat Houston, they certainly beat Portland and they are
(25:45):
the three. And now the interesting piece of it, Denver,
which is falling apart, has not recovered from the Westbrook debacle.
Joker can just put up four, forty five, fifteen and
fifteen every night, it doesn't matter. And I don't know
if you heard what Michael Malone said the other day,
(26:06):
when Michael Malone said, yeah, Jamal Murray, we hope he's
ready for the playoffs. That's concerning. I think Denver is
going to lose to Memphis. Let's assume they beat Houston,
because that'll be game eighty two for Houston, and Houston
(26:27):
likely is not gonna, you know, be playing their people.
Whether or not Denver falls to the play d will
likely be determined by how they do against Sacramento in
Denver when they play on what do they play tonight
(26:48):
or Wednesday? I should have had that up in front
of me. I apologize Denver plays tomorrow when they play
Sacramento tomorrow, the Clippers again, so much of this is
predicated by what the Rockets do as far as resting guys,
cause the Clippers play the Spurs tonight, so the Clippers
(27:10):
will win tonight, and then the Clippers play Houston next.
But the question is is Houston, assuming the Lakers lose tonight,
gonna be playing their guys. If they are, then that
should be a great game. The Clippers after that are
(27:30):
at Sacramento at Golden State. Golden State has an absolute
three consecutive layups at Phoenix. I saw Phoenix in person
at the Garden Friday night that they are cooked, so
pix Golden State will beat Phoenix, then the Spurs, who
don't want to win, then the Blazers. So Golden State
(27:54):
is going to be forty nine and thirty two going
into the final game against the Clippers, which the Clippers
are going to need to win potentially to avoid the
play in, potentially for seeding. So Warriors Clippers game eighty
two massive. Right. The Grizzlies are at Milwaukee, at Memphis,
(28:22):
and then home for Brooklyn in Utah. So Minnesota, Brooklyn,
and Utah are auto wins. Those teams are not trying.
If they beat Milwaukee tonight, then Minnesota has a real
chance of not only climbing out of the play in,
but climbing all the way to the four to five line.
(28:48):
And then Memphis it likely comes they're at Charlotte. That's
to win home for Minnesota at Denver, home for Dallas.
So let's let's do it like this. What are the
guaranteed victories on teams schedule for the Lakers Just one
(29:13):
game eighty two against Portland. The Lakers will then need
to win one other game to lock up the three
Oka se Dallas, Houston. They're gonna lose Okay sees. They've
beat Dallas or Houston for Denver, zero guaranteed victories Sacramento, Memphis, Houston,
So no guaranteed victories for the Clippers. One game the
(29:38):
Clippers put them at forty seven wins. They have the
Spurs game, then Houston, Sacramento, Golden State for Golden State,
three guaranteed victories Phoenix, Spurs, Portland, and then that Clipper
game for Minnesota. So put Golden State at forty nine wins.
(29:58):
I'm gonna do this in the so I can just
see it. So Denver forty seven with three questions, the
Clippers forty seven with three questions. As far as the games,
the Warriors forty nine, one question game Minnesota at Milwaukee,
(30:24):
at Memphis tof home for Brooklyn and Utah they're at
forty eight with two questions, and then Memphis at Charlotte
three questions. Yeah, forty exactly forty seven. So the games
that are going to determine the Western Conference playoff bracket
(30:45):
is all of Denver's games against Sacramento, Memphis in Houston,
the Clippers games against Houston, Sacramento, and Golden State. For
the Golden State that one game against the Clippers, and
for Minnesota, they're games at Milwaukee and at Memphis. That's it.
(31:11):
And so right now I would think the most likely
seeding is as follows. One Oklahoma City locked, two Houston
essentially locked, three Lakers close to essentially locked for Golden State, five, Minnesota,
(31:42):
six the Clippers, Lakers, Clippers around won't be fun. Seven
Denver eight, Memphis. That's how I think it's gonna fall out.
Speaker 2 (31:58):
Is that ideal for you? Are there any matchups things? Well?
Speaker 1 (32:02):
The ideal for the Lakers well, and by the way,
that's set the seven eight obviously, then there's a play
in situation. The ideal for the Lakers. Everybody wants Memphis.
The ideal for the Lakers is Memphis getting to the
three line. I don't think that's happening. I would would
I rather play Minnesota or would I rather play the Clippers.
(32:26):
I would rather play Clipper's been really tough since Kawhi
came back, since Kawai has been playing like this, I'd
probably rather play Minnesota now later in the playoffs, I'd
take my chances with sadly Kawhi not holding up, but
in round one with him playing like this, they're dangerous.
(32:50):
The thing is, everybody's dangerous. But if you're the Lakers,
you can't worry about round one. If it were to
play out to where you are on the opposite side
of the bracket of OKC and round two looks like
it's Golden State OKC, you sign up for that if
(33:13):
you you know, if you if you're the Lakers, and
you're only gonna have to be one of Golden State
or Oklahoma City, and they have to they play each
other in a war in round two, while with respect,
you're probably playing the Rockets. That is the ideal situation,
and I think it's what they've set themselves up.
Speaker 2 (33:34):
I think the Rockets are going to be dangerous in
the playoffs. I know you say, and they're young and
all that. I think they have a great championships.
Speaker 1 (33:46):
That's fair. They have and they have a great coach.
Dylan Brook's gonna see Lebron in a playoff series and
once again be like it's Dylan Brook's time, and I
don't trust Jaialen Green. Now, Amen Thompson is a monster
as a young player, and Shingoon's great. Shingoon's great. But
(34:11):
I again, the West is brutal. None of these are easy,
but it's you.
Speaker 2 (34:17):
Know it easy. I'm not saying like they can win, Okay,
I said, I know, I said defense wins championships. But
I think they can mess somebody's road up, think knock
a team out early.
Speaker 1 (34:29):
But you but you're kind of treating them demonte like
they're not the two seed. They're like the two seed
playing to their seed means they're in the conference finals.
I don't see that happening. Like now, listen, maybe they
maybe somebody clips clips the Lakers and they beat them,
or maybe they can beat the Lakers. But I I
think Houston, Houston has earned enough for me to wear
(34:52):
at this point. I will almost assuredly be picking them
in their Round one series. I don't I don't know,
you know what I say that I don't know if
i'd pick them against Minnesota. I think Minnesota could be tough.
Speaker 2 (35:07):
But yeah, I could see.
Speaker 1 (35:11):
Yeah, no, they could win. I just but I think
I'd probably pick Minnesota. This is always fun. So we
are going to go division by division all thirty Now
I am not I will address all thirty two teams
win totals, but there's what I've already looked at this
(35:31):
obviously quite a bit. Some of these I'm just like, oh, okay,
that line is right, Like I you know, usually Vegas
is pretty good at these, And anybody that's gonna give
you at this point in the year a lean on
all thirty two, that's too much for me. Shout out,
by the way, double shout outs. Actually, shout out to
Zach Lowe for bringing his podcast back, The Zach Lowe
(35:53):
Show signed on with Bill Simmons and The Ringer, And
shout out to Bill who last year in his preseason
Over Unders podcast went twenty seven and five with preseason
win totals, which is just remarkable. So double shout outs
to those guys. All right, this is the way too
(36:14):
Early Over Unders. Start with the AFC East. We'll do
each division basically from highest projected win total to lowest.
Demon's a give me each team and then I'll tell
you if I have a lien or not.
Speaker 2 (36:28):
First we've got the Buffalo Bills other over unders set
at eleven and a half.
Speaker 1 (36:33):
Over under set eleven and a half, heavy juice minus
won forty five on the over, and this, to me
is that number is just right, and I'll stay away
from it like that. If I had to pick one,
I would go over. However, minus won forty five's too much,
and I mean they're smart people expect the Bills at
(36:54):
this point, with healthy Josh Allen, you're gonna win double
digit games. It'd be a hard under to go with,
but I'll stay away from that.
Speaker 2 (37:03):
Next, you got the Dolphins over under at eight and
a half.
Speaker 1 (37:07):
That's exactly that's the end, with a little bit of
juice on the under minus one thirty. That is to
me a exactly right line. I think the Dolphins will
win eight or nine games. That is perfect. Last year,
by the way, the preseason total was ten and a half.
But I am that to me is a stay away.
Speaker 2 (37:28):
Next one, we got the Patriots. They're over unders eight
and a half, all.
Speaker 1 (37:34):
Right, So this is juice to the under as it
should be. It's minus one forty to the under. This is,
in my opinion, an outrageous total. So now I should
note and I should have done this earlier on it all,
you always have to look at what divisions each division's
(38:00):
So everyone has their three strength of schedule games a year,
but then you also play your own division, and then
what are the other divisions you play? For the AFC East,
they draw one of the toughest divisions in the AFC
North and probably the weakest division in the NFC South.
(38:21):
So that to me, you basically that's a wash. And
so the reason I'm saying this is, whenever you're doing
these preseason win totals, check and see what divisions the
other uh you know that those teams are playing, and
kind of power rank the divisions in your own head
(38:44):
and then figure out, you know, are they do they
get two of the easier ones two of the harder
ones or is it like this where you get one
tough one in the AFC North, one easy one in
the NFC South and it evens out. So what the
Patriots have going for them is the last play schedule,
(39:05):
they're extra games.
Speaker 2 (39:09):
Well maybe side of the Bills.
Speaker 1 (39:11):
But here's the thing. They're really bad and I just
don't know that they have done enough to have a
competent offense. They upgraded it, coach Drake may should be
better in year two, that offensive line will still be
a disaster. They for the third consecutive year, maybe fourth,
(39:33):
do not have a single draftable fantasy football skill player.
There is not a single wide receiver, running back, or
tight end on that team that you would want on
your fantasy football team. I don't think Stefan Diggs is
gonna have a big impact. I think the Patriots would
(39:56):
be thrilled to win eight games. I'm sorry to win
six games. The fact that this team could win eight
games and the underhits is outrageous. I love the under
for the New England Patriots. I will take under eight
and a half, and that's a bet we can put
(40:16):
on my season long. I think that thing drops to
seven and a half before the year, especially when the
draft plays out and they aren't able to get Abdulla
Carter or Travis Hunter. Not that a rookie should really
move a win total. I will take under for the Patriots.
Last AFC's team, Demantsey.
Speaker 2 (40:33):
Oh We got the Jets. They're over unders five and
a half.
Speaker 1 (40:37):
Yeah, I will take the over here. So they got
so much better in from a culture, stability, maturity standpoint
in the coaching staff. They are not gonna be under
(40:58):
the spotlight like they were like last year. I think
that it will be refreshing for that team to not
have this For everyone on that team who spent their
whole career with the Jets, every year of their career,
(41:20):
the only story, the only thing people were focused on
was the quarterback, whether it was Zach Wilson going to
get it together, Aaron Rodgers coming to save us, Aaron
Rodgers Tours Achilles, Aaron Rodgers last year. This year, it's
just going to be about Aaron Glenn trying to set
a culture, running the damn ball, playing good defense. They
(41:44):
I think that they won five games last year, and
I think this year they should be better, not necessarily
better at quarterback, but not worse at quarterback, and better
a little bit better everywhere else and not have the
(42:04):
energy constantly sucked out of the room. And I think
staying out of the spotlight because they are not going
to be a disgusted team, will be good for them.
I could absolutely see Aaron Glenn getting there, that team
finding its way to seven wins. I like the Jets over.
So for the AFC East, the Bills, I am staying
(42:25):
away from the Dolphins, I am staying away from I
am on the Patriots under, and I am on the
Jets over. Let's go Demons to the AFC North.
Speaker 2 (42:36):
We got the Ravens at the over unders eleven and
a half.
Speaker 1 (42:41):
This is a tentative over for Baltimore. Now, I would
not bet the under on any year you have a
healthy Lamar Jackson. Okay, he's an all time regular season
player and just guarantees you, if he's healthy, double digit wins.
The reason I'm saying tentative is not because I might
(43:01):
go under, but I'm not sure if that's a bet
all actually make, but I do. It does feel like
last year was kind of a worst case scenario regular
season for them and they still won twelve games, and
so that to me is I lean over. You feel
(43:27):
like they're always gonna be well coached. The defense came
around by the end of last year. Lamar is unbelievable,
and you anticipate that they can win twelve thirteen games
almost every season. The juice is dead even essentially on
the over of the under. The Lamar injury stuff does
(43:51):
worry you a bit, so I would just want to
see him get through the preseason and offseason everything totally healthy.
I also, before I make any better on the Ravens, Demonse,
I have to make sure that Health and Human Services,
if that department still exists, isn't projecting like a bad
cold and flu season, because that absolutely can cost the
(44:12):
Ravens a game, because Lamar has the immune system of
a small Victorian child. As a funny tweet said once, yeah,
well of course, and so but I lean over for Baltimore.
Speaker 2 (44:26):
Next Bengals over under nine and a half.
Speaker 1 (44:32):
This number is just right. I would stay away from it.
The juice is heavily heavily on the over and at
minus one fifty. And I don't know why we would
think they're going to be a much different team than
(44:53):
last year. A great offense, a bad defense, score a
ton of points, lose a lot of games they shouldn't
because defense is bad. And so I that to me
is a stayaway. Next team, demanse.
Speaker 2 (45:08):
Oh, we got the Steelers. They're over unders eight and
a half.
Speaker 1 (45:11):
I'll take the under to me, this is now that
means I'm betting Tomlin to not continue as well. You
know what, that's not true. I could win this bet
and have Tomlin's record extend because it's never at a
losing season, So eight eight and one keeps that thing going. Uh,
(45:35):
not that because the tie doesn't count as half a win. Sorry,
drop some tie doesn't count as half a win when
it comes to this. But I will go under because
one of two things is going to happen, Demnsey, one
of three things. Pardon me. Either Aaron Rodgers is not
going there and they are starting Mason Rudolph, or Aaron
(46:01):
Rodgers is not going there and they are starting rookie
either Shadoor Sanders or Jackson Dark or Aaron Rodgers is
gonna announce tomorrow on McAfee or sometime in a month
he is going there and bring that entire circus with him.
And I think nothing would be more poetic than us
(46:25):
finding out what's the only thing that can end Mike
tomlin streak of above five hundred or better years, And
the answer is bringing in forty two year old diva
Aaron Rodgers. So I will go under for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Now,
remember last year I was heavy on them, missing the
playoffs and going under and all of that, and they
(46:47):
cost me a ton of futures. So I could be wrong,
but I will go under on Aaron Rodgers or the
Steelers without Aaron Rodgers. Either way, I think it's time
for a bit of a reset in Pittsburgh. I'll go
under there next.
Speaker 2 (47:01):
All right, Uh, you got the Browns. They're over unders
four and a half.
Speaker 1 (47:05):
I mean, we don't know who's gonna be playing quarterback
for them, we don't know what they're doing in the draft.
That number is just really a slap in their face.
A number that low four and a half. You just
don't see that very often. I'm gonna stay away. I
can't bet under four and a half. But I also
(47:25):
obviously A'm not gonna bet on the Cleveland Browns. So
thus far, through two divisions, I lean Patriot or I'm
heavy on Patriots under. I like the Jets over. I
lean Steelers or Ravens over, and I like the Steelers under.
Let's go to the AFC South.
Speaker 2 (47:46):
Oh, we got the Texans. They're over unders set at
nine and a half.
Speaker 1 (47:50):
That's just right. I worry about their injuries at wide receiver,
you know they will. Nico is a guy who's an
excellent player. He's dealt with injuries in his career. Obviously,
Tank Dell is going to be out all year. They
didn't bring back Digs, they traded away Tonsil, so you worry,
or they just changed offensive coordinators. But the defense should
(48:13):
be really good and Demiko's excellent. CJ's really good. So
it feels like a nine or ten win team. Will
stay away from it.
Speaker 2 (48:19):
Next we got the Colts. They're over under seven and
a half.
Speaker 1 (48:23):
I you know what, I I don't have a ton
of Colts opinions this year. I don't really want to
spend a lot of time thinking about the Colts. I'm
not that interested in the Colts. Seven and a half
sounds right. We'll stay away from it. You don't have
to bet everything shit to.
Speaker 2 (48:38):
Who My co worker he's he's a big fan of
the Colts, and he always says that everybody says the
Colts is just like nobody.
Speaker 1 (48:46):
He correct, Yeah, there's there's there. I mean, basically, that's
this whole division. Both of the Souths just get totally
you know what I mean, Distrigard.
Speaker 2 (48:58):
But next uh got the Jags. They're over under seven
and a half.
Speaker 1 (49:03):
I'm back, baby Jags. All right over better head, new
head coach Trevor Healthy, Brian Thomas Junior in year two,
all of these things.
Speaker 2 (49:22):
I think the right way is definitely go over here.
But if they finished with less than that, what happens
with Trevor Lawrence after this season.
Speaker 1 (49:30):
Is not great?
Speaker 2 (49:31):
Right?
Speaker 1 (49:31):
Yeah? No, no, then people start they start talking about,
you know, how can we get out of the contract
like all that stuff. It's not great, which is why
it's not gonna happen. Trevor Lawrence's returned to glory this season.
He's listen, I know people don't you know, we're sick
of me saying this, but it is true. Trevor Lawrence.
(49:54):
He's just twenty five man, twenty five years old. He's
been saying, age's bo Nick's basically like. He had a
brutal rookie year his second year, led them to win
the division and a great playoff comeback. His third year,
they were eight and three until he suffered injuries to
(50:18):
three different parts of his body in three consecutive weeks
and had to miss time in their season fell apart
and last year season from hell, I'm not quitting you,
Trevor over Jaggs put it in pen. I'm betting that one.
They are getting back in the playoff mix. That's all
I'm saying. Just in the playoff mix and Liam going,
(50:40):
I don't care if you said Duval weird, you got
the best out of Baker. I like you. I am
with the Jacksonville Jaguars over seven and a half.
Speaker 2 (50:49):
Next with you there, you got the Titans. They're over
unders five and a half.
Speaker 1 (50:54):
See with plus one twenty five on the under, and
they're gonna be starting a rookie quarterback from day one.
Give me the under, Like, give me the under with
cam Ward even if he's good. I think that that
there's gonna be a lot of growing pains. I don't
(51:15):
know that I trust Brian Callahan. It's and I'm getting
plus money on it. Like now this one, I will
admit I am going to bet this, but I am
going to wait to bet this because since it's minus
one point fifty on the over all these lines. Obviously,
by the way, courtesy of our friends at DraftKings, I
(51:36):
should have been saying that earlier. Uh plus one twenty
five on the under. This might move to six and
a half, and I love it at six and a half.
I like it a lot at five and a half.
I will bet this at some point, just not this moment,
but starting a rookie quarterback, shakey head coach, and oh,
(51:58):
by the way, line is an odd subject to change.
I need to tell you guys, but you guys all
know that you're Titans.
Speaker 2 (52:02):
Get six wins, can war you mean he said, I
mean they can was going to go to the super
Bowl last year. He's a rookie quarterback.
Speaker 1 (52:10):
Yeah, but the so a couple things. The Bears were
coming off a seven win season, not three and fourteen.
I was wrong about the Bears coach. The Bears ended
up having a dufus coach and Calb's way way, way,
way way better.
Speaker 2 (52:23):
Than cam Ward.
Speaker 1 (52:25):
Yeah, it's not even close. All right, finish it off
on the AFC West.
Speaker 2 (52:28):
So we got the Chiefs. They're over runners eleven and
a half. This is insulting, insulting. The highest win total
projected wind total.
Speaker 1 (52:39):
Yeah it should be twelve and a half. They won
seventeen games last year. They won fifteen in the regular season,
and everyone told me they weren't that good. They they
they could. They went fifteen and one last year in
games mahomes play because they sat out Week seventeen. The oh,
(52:59):
I haven't been giving you guys the division stuff. Darn it.
Here's the other thing that I really like for the
whole AFC West. They're division games, as they get all
four teams in the AFC South awesome, and they get
the NFC East, which is only as in my opinion,
(53:22):
one great team in the Eagles. Now, obviously the chief
strength of schedule games are brutal their strength of schedule,
So they get their own division plus the AFC South
and the AFCAS and then the strength of schedule games
are Baltimore, Buffalo, Detroit. So that's the strength of schedule
is you know, outrageous. But the Chiefs have games against
(53:46):
Texans called Jags Titans, and then four more games against
or two more games I should say, Cowboys Giant. There's
six games they win. They go five and one in
the division. Every year, there's your eleven games. And so
(54:09):
then let's say they only go four and two in
the division this year, so now you're at ten. That
would mean of the following games, Detroit Baltimore, Buffalo, Philly, Washington.
He's got to win two of them, and so I
(54:33):
the betting the Chiefs over every year since Mahomes has
been there, hell, since Andy's been there. But it's been
super profitable since Malomes have been there. They've hit it
six of seven years. The only year they didn't hit
it was two years ago and they made up for
that by winning the Super Bowl. So yeah, I'm not
the Chiefs stats an over.
Speaker 2 (54:54):
The Chiefs faced the Eagles next year and it's going
to be in Kansas City winning the season. Would you
want to see that game?
Speaker 1 (55:00):
When?
Speaker 2 (55:01):
Would you want that?
Speaker 1 (55:06):
Great question?
Speaker 2 (55:08):
First game of the season.
Speaker 1 (55:09):
No, because it's just like no, because the Chiefs don't
get to Well, first of all, that can't happen because
the Eagles are the defending champs. They get to host
the you know, a season opener on Thursday, so it
can't be the first game of the year. Here's what
I don't care when it is. I just want both
teams to be on regular rest. I don't want one
(55:33):
team to be coming off a weird schedule. I you
know what, the whatever it is. There are some rumors,
uh the the that the Chiefs could start the year
in Brazil, but I so I don't know, but just
I just want both teams on regular rest, all right,
(55:55):
But by the way, you know what, let's do this
before we get to the rest of the AFC West,
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(56:59):
has not been popping off for big point totals thus far. However,
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co slash b ball. All right, demonse, let's go back
to the AFC West. We just did the Chiefs over
eleven and a half. Give me the last few.
Speaker 2 (58:54):
Oh, we got the charges that are over UNDERDS nine
and a half, so and I'm gonna.
Speaker 1 (58:59):
Lump the Ronco's in with them as well. They're also
at nine and a half. To me, both of these
are stay aways. I think both of these are gonna
be very trendy bets. I think a lot of people
are going to like either or both of these teams
to hit double digit wins. They both hit it last year,
(59:20):
they both made the playoffs last year. I now they
have the same benefit the Chiefs have, which is the
AFC South and the NFC East. But I think people
are a little too high on the Chargers, who I
don't think are going to have the turnover numbers they
had last year. And I think people are a little
(59:41):
too high on bon Knicks. Now again, if I thought
people were way way off, I'd be saying go under.
But I think both. I think both those teams are
gonna be hovering around at the end of the year
eight nine to ten wins, so I would stay away,
and then that gives us the Raiders Demons.
Speaker 2 (01:00:01):
And they're over under six malf.
Speaker 1 (01:00:05):
I love the over for the Las Vegas Raiders. I
know that probably shocks people, but when you combine the
following things. They had a bottom three coach last year,
they replaced him with a top ten coach in Pete Carroll.
They had a bottom three quarterback situation. They replace him
with top twelve quarterback and Gino Smith. They have a
(01:00:30):
last place schedule. They are going to be able to
draft an impact player at number six. Pete, I think
maybe Ashton Genty. Pete Carroll wants to win. Right now,
everyone is gonna be all over the Broncos of the Chargers.
I think it's the Raiders that could finish second in
(01:00:53):
the AFC West. I think Pete Carroll has the Raiders
fighting for the final wild card spot in the AFC
in year one. I like the Raiders over six and
a half. So my AFC bets that I like Patriots
(01:01:13):
under eight and a half, Jets over five and a half,
Steelers under eight and a half, Ravens over eleven and
a half, Jags over seven and a half, Titans under
five and a half, Chiefs over eleven and a half,
and the Las Vegas Raiders under six and a half.
(01:01:34):
In the least surprising news ever, Demon's a I went
way too long, and we're gonna do the NFC on Thursday,
so I don't want to rush through the NFC. But uh,
you know what I mean? Yeah, yeah, we have a
ton more to go. So well, I liked how we
(01:01:54):
did this. Do some NBA news and everything Thursday to
start the show, do the over unders for the second
half of the show. I thought that worked well, and
so AFC we just gave them to you. NFC we
will do on Thursday. Let's ask some listener questions demands.
(01:02:19):
You have a question?
Speaker 2 (01:02:20):
Well, yeah, I mean I saw on Twitter that they
were bringing back dire Wolves. I hit Daniel up about
this and said that should go somewhere else in the show.
It was really bad take, But I think it's what's
going on.
Speaker 1 (01:02:34):
Know what's the take? Let me hear your take.
Speaker 2 (01:02:36):
I think that's insane that they're that they're messing with
stuff like that. I don't know what reason we would
have for it, unless it's like beneficial for the I
don't know.
Speaker 1 (01:02:47):
So it's not a bad it's not a bad take.
It's first of all. Second of all, hand up, not
afraid to admit things. I thought dire wolves were always
make believe. I didn't know that was a thing. I
knew they were in Game of Thrones, but I thought
they were make believe like dragons, like I thought it
(01:03:08):
was just something from fantasy. I didn't know, like I
obviously knew. Well, that's a separate discussion there is did
dragons ever exist? Is not as dumb of a question
as some people think. I will say that, but set
that aside. I obviously knew, like you know, like wooly
(01:03:31):
mammoths existed and the Megalodon existed. I didn't know that
horse sized wolves existed. I thought that was purely from
Game of Thrones. So I know that this is a
little Jurassic Park ish, and that didn't go well, but
(01:03:54):
I think it would be sick man if we could
reanimate some of the giant animal life from world history
and put it on an island somewhere and let them
and like see it. As long as they can't fly, man,
(01:04:16):
as long as they can't fly and can't swim, I
think i'd be I'd love to see a dire wolf.
I think it'd be awesome. I don't know they existed.
I get it's a little scary. I understand, yeah, And
I'm not necessarily for the dinosaurs coming back.
Speaker 2 (01:04:33):
I mean I just saw, like, I don't think it
was a terrordacty. There was a specific name for it,
but the beak was probably about as long as this room,
and like just to imagine that thing was in the air,
like people have not grown up.
Speaker 1 (01:04:46):
The producer asking that I was stop watching Jurassic Park
after forty minutes. They made a lot of grievous errors
there and creating the ones that can fly obvious the
fly and swim ones are. To me, that's a big mistake.
But we if we had I keep reading about these
islands that no people live on that we just added
(01:05:08):
tariffs to I didn't even know about these islands Head Island,
in the place all the penguins live or whatever. There's
these islands that no one lives on. What if we
reanimated them there? I'm not against it. Hayes asks the
question that you know people have been wondering.
Speaker 2 (01:05:25):
So going, Hey, Nick, are you still training for the triathlon?
And if so, what is it scheduled for? That's over?
Speaker 1 (01:05:32):
It's not yet scheduled. It's not over. It's not over.
My training has hit a hiccup, I will admit, but
I've got a lot of time. I've got a lot
of time. And so am i as gung ho as
(01:05:52):
I was not quite? But all your mom has been
bullying me because we have this family trip scheduled for
early July. Yeah, and she's been going to the gym
every single day and she just comes home and body
shames me. And her latest thing is she is just
(01:06:13):
convinced that she is stronger than me, like we were.
I know, I know. So like yesterday we just bought
a new couch and it's getting delivered today. So yesterday
we reorganized the living room and so I had to
like move around the chairs and everything, and every chance
(01:06:35):
she got, she was just like, oh, do you need
me to move? That is that for you? Like just
constant bullying right.
Speaker 2 (01:06:44):
For the manhood? That that is all blow the belt.
But you know what's what's new with with my mother?
Speaker 1 (01:06:49):
Uh? Yeah, all right, go to Chris's question.
Speaker 2 (01:06:53):
Chris is how do you predict win totals of the
schedules ain't even out yet. You got a factor in
weeknight games, can say in a road ships, et cetera.
Speaker 1 (01:07:01):
No, so that's fair, Like we know who people are playing,
we don't know when they're playing. So that's why I
said these are I think there were only two that
I said I'm betting right now. One is the Patriots.
I don't care if the Patriots got seventeen home games,
they're not winning nine, and so I like the Patriots
under But you're right, you do have the factor like
(01:07:22):
rest advantage things like that. But we do know who
everyone's playing, we just don't know when those games are,
so I think, but it's you know, so it's a
fair point. But I think NFL has done a really
good job of making schedule release feel like a huge
event even though we already know who everyone's playing. All right,
(01:07:43):
everybody like great? Subscribe review. Please do that helps us out.
We will see you guys on Thursday. Great job demands
a great job. Everyone at Blue Duck, everyone at DraftKings,
everyone at the Volume. We appreciate you all. Talk to
you guys soon. What's right
Hosts And Creators
Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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