November 10, 2024 • 41 mins
Martin Hawes joins Tim Beveridge to discuss the impact of Donald Trump's election win on New Zealand markets.
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
You're listening to the Weekend Collective Podcast from News Talks.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
Be the best things in life for free.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
You can give it to the birds and bees.
Speaker 3 (00:18):
I want money.
Speaker 4 (00:33):
All a won't.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
Yeah, So welcome back to the Weekend Collective. I'm Tim Beverage.
And by the way, I you've must even of our
previous house. We just had a chat with Kent John's
from Kent John's Health around just avoiding interview burnout and
also a bit of a chat about diabetes given its
Stabetes Action Month. But the politics as well on Politics
Central from three o'clock was I had a couple of
really interesting interviews actually Marco Rubio's former chief of staff
(00:58):
staff Matt Terrell, talking about the just the Trump administration,
the landslide went and what we can look forward to.
And we carry on that theme when we had a
chat with Maurris Williamson as well, who was the console
former Consule General to Los Angeles in Los Angeles and
just had his take on it as well. So if
you missed any of that, then you can go and
check out the Weekend Collective Podcast wherever you podcast, but
(01:20):
go to iHeartRadio anyway. Right now, it is time for
smart money. We want your calls eight hundred eighty ten
eighty text nine two nine two. And my guest, he's
a regular on the show's a finance writer and his
name is He's written a bunch of bookx as well.
Martin Hawes.
Speaker 3 (01:36):
Gooday, yeah, hi there, Tom. How are you?
Speaker 2 (01:39):
I'm not too bad? How have you been good?
Speaker 3 (01:41):
Really good? Thank you? Very very interesting. Interested in everything
that's going on in the world at the moment, and
Trump is sort of the gift that keeps on giving. Yeah,
journos and people like that must be the life of
They would never sit around sucking their pencils to write
about I.
Speaker 2 (02:00):
Guess so although what came out of the politics, there
is a lot of people are a little bit more
or or you know, the people who be very activated
about it, and there's going to be obviously with American politics,
or there's always a story there. But I'm fairly sanguine
about it. In a way. I'm feeling really not as
not as het up as I thought I might be,
(02:21):
because you know, we've been there, done that, He's been there,
done that, and the question is we can just have
more rational discussions about what does it mean? And do
you have an interest. You would have an interest in
that in terms of what a Trump administration means for money,
wouldn't you.
Speaker 3 (02:35):
Yes, I certainly do with that. But I've followed politics
with interest since I was sixteen years old, and that
was a long time ago. So I'm you know, I'm
really interested. I'm almost podcasted out at the moment. I
get a lot of podcasts from all around the world
and I'm listening listening to them. But the thing that
I would say about Trump is that it is just
(02:57):
so hard to know what he's going to do. He
is so mercurial that, you know, we just we just
can't can't guess what it is. The other thing is
that this election, and I think probably all American elections,
are fought on sort of big ideas without ever getting
into the detail of policy. So here in New Zealand,
(03:21):
you know, we have an election and somebody says we're
going to do a and people will say, well is
that cost it? And it needs to be costed to
with an inch of its life. In America, they just
talk about big ideas. You know, Trump says we're going
to lower tax Well, what tax taxes are you going
to lower? He doesn't bother with that sort of detail.
(03:42):
Neither did Harris, you know, to be to be fair,
they just sort of they just sort of It's kind
of a popularity got contest almost is it actually is,
isn't it?
Speaker 2 (03:52):
And look, in hindsight now I think that they focus
the Democrats focused way too much on identity politics. You're
a woman, therefore she had vote. You should vote for me,
You're you know, you're black, you should vote for me.
You're a Hispanic, you should vote for me, When in fact, yeah,
that probably missed them obviously missed the mark because it
was a landslide. Did you see it coming? No?
Speaker 3 (04:11):
But I didn't see anything coming, So I wasn't totally
wrong or totally right. I couldn't. I just thought it
could go anyway.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
So what sort of podcasts have you been? Do you
download podcasts from the point of view of politics or
do they have a sort of financial business share market
currency slant to them?
Speaker 3 (04:33):
A bit of both, but more politics, like BBC New
York Times, various other ones which are really about politics.
But you know, one of the things that as an
investor that we always have to keep an eye on
is politics, and in particular geopolitics. And I don't think
i've ever in my fifty or getting close to sixty
(04:58):
fifty or sixty years of following this, I don't think
I've ever seen a more dangerous time in geo politics
than what we have at the moment. And of course
Trump because we don't know what he's going to do,
you know, and so vague that it's even more dangerous
because we just don't know how the cards are going
(05:18):
to fall. Yeah, and the other thing I sort of can't.
I couldn't believe I heard this, but you know, Elon
Musk was on the and on the conversation and on
the call between Trump and Zelenski, who, Yeah, well, you
know what's going on here. Now. You know, he's obviously
(05:40):
bought Elon Muskin and they've done the the loving bro thing,
even though they said they hated each other before. But
you know, Trump is just so he's not tied to
institutions and he's not tied to rules, and he'll be
he can and he does do anything.
Speaker 2 (06:02):
Yes, I don't know how I adress that one, but yeah,
Elon Musk ended up on a call with Volodimi's Donald Trump. That, yes,
that does make me a little nervous because it just
feels about feels a bit random, doesn't it.
Speaker 3 (06:18):
Yes, well, they were arguing a couple of days ago
about what levels of security clearance that they were going
to need, and of course Trump was saying, well, you know,
we don't need the FBI to get involved in this.
Was any of my good mates are fine.
Speaker 2 (06:34):
Oh okay, it does sound that learns a little Groundhog
Day for me. Now that's but random, so go I'm sorry.
Speaker 3 (06:42):
Yeah, yeah, I was just going to say, it's the
whole thing is very awkward. We we just don't know
what's what's going to happen. If he did, for example,
bring his towerff Son as stated, you know, ten to
twenty percent for everyone. It doesn't matter whether you're an
ally or a friend or indeed an enemy, you're going
to have at least ten to twenty percent and a
(07:03):
sixty percent on any tower from Chinese goods. So that,
I mean, that's got major economicification ramifications.
Speaker 2 (07:15):
And they think, do you think that those well, as
you even just said, and it's not the first time
I've seen that stat. Ten to twenty percent on all
goods from overseas countries is what he's talked about but
there's a big difference between ten percent and twenty percent,
And there are tariffs in place already, and of course,
if you're an EV manufacturer in China, you're paying one
hundred percent tariff already on EV's even under the Biden administration. Yeah,
(07:38):
it's I mean, yeah, so.
Speaker 3 (07:44):
What Tim, You're almost speechless?
Speaker 2 (07:47):
Well, I sort of am, just because because I don't
We just don't know, do we. But also in terms
of the context of is that threat, is it as
dramatics as it sounds, or just in terms of New
Zealand exports, are we facing tariffs already? And to be honest, look,
you know we're already paying ten percent or does it
(08:07):
mean it's going to get worse? I mean, we just
don't know, do we.
Speaker 3 (08:10):
No, No, we don't know. The other two big things,
and this is important for your money, for your kiwisaver
or for those who are investing, is the two things
that he has promised is deregulation and tax cuts. Now, look,
yet again there's no detail on us. But that's why
since Trump will it become the president elect, That's why
(08:33):
the share market in the US at least has gone
off on a tier. So shares of rivers and sharp
on Friday night. They came off a little a little bit,
but you know, very sharp rises. And if you think
of this strong a party point of view, the Republicans
are supposedly the business friendly party, and it looks like
(08:55):
the Republicans could have a clean sweep. So tax cuts
and deregulation, whatever tax cuts are and whatever deregulation is
very very likely.
Speaker 2 (09:06):
Because tax cuts can be inflationary, can't they Because it's
and here going to sounds like he is going to
borrow a lot more. Yes, are your thoughts on that.
Speaker 3 (09:18):
I think he'll He'll probably have to, but you know,
one of the things you've got to sit back and ask.
So they're going to be tax cuts that increases corporate profitability,
So the companies that are listed on the share markets
should have more profitability. Therefore share prices should be higher.
And deregulation cuts costs and allows people into various markets
(09:40):
much more easily, and therefore companies we tend will tend
to make a lot more profit. And that's why the
shares have gone up so much in the last two
or three days. And in my view it's while they'll
probably continue to go.
Speaker 2 (09:57):
That's yeah, because I was wondering if you know, just
the fact of the election win sort of spikes the
the share market a bit, but whether that that's it
sort of gets priced in already, but you think it's
just going to continue to go up.
Speaker 3 (10:11):
I think Trump's victory has taken the share market a
bit by surprise, and I think it's pushed it up.
It'll be easier if there is the regulation, it'll be
easier to do business in the US. Presumably it'll be
more profitable. It's the US. US businesses are already fabulous
(10:35):
money making machines. They will become even more so. And
you know, I looked at my portfolio before I came
on here. I don't manage it but anymore. But I
have ten percent in the New Zealand share market. I
have about twenty five percent in the US market.
Speaker 2 (10:54):
Yeah, and what happened to that? So I can get
on It's it's.
Speaker 3 (10:59):
Done extremely well. What your your keyp be, say, Tim
will be will be similarly invested that. You know, mine's
not terribly radical, really, but all these companies like you know, well,
the magnificence even and particularly Microsoft, Apple and vid, Amazon
and so forth, all of these are going to do
extremely well. I think over the overcoming a year or two,
(11:20):
or three or.
Speaker 2 (11:20):
Four, how much of it gets how much of that
price bump happens sort of instantly, it gets priced in
because people are expecting an anticipation. In other words, has
the bump that's happened to a lot of those stocks?
I mean, how much should you be aware of the
(11:42):
fact that they might get ahead of themselves in terms
of their genuine value as opposed to the notion that
Trump's and this is good for the company, we must
be worth more. But actually the fundamentals might eventually go well,
not as much as you thought.
Speaker 3 (11:55):
Yeah, it's a really good question, and you'll have to
give me a moment to fire up my crystal ball
and have a look and see what's going happened. I
think this is more than a short term bumph, you know.
I think that this is you know that the tax
cuts maybe one off or there, maybe a couple of them,
who knows, But deregulation, it seems to me to be
(12:17):
much more systemic. And you know, I think the Republicans,
if the Republicans control presidents in the House and in
the Senate, you know, I think you'll find it a
lot easier to do business. I think my causinesses will
be more profitable.
Speaker 2 (12:34):
Okay, do you like that?
Speaker 3 (12:36):
Well, I like businesses to be profitable. But you know,
if if that's at the cost of deregulation, which makes workplaces,
for example, somewhat unsafe, then I don't like it. It depends.
It just depends what it is.
Speaker 2 (12:51):
I guess we actually, of course it depends because business
covers just a multitude of products and services and industries
and things, doesn't It's difficult to sort of sum it
up if you okay, well, it's just we're going to
throw it by the way for you to give us
call on the Trump presidency. Does is it something that's
(13:11):
going to entract attract your investment dollar in any particular
form regarding the sher market or industry and where you're
going to put your money. What do you think it's
going to do for for investment generally? Because Martin is
there are particular Are there particular industries that sort of well,
I'm assuming you fired your crystal ball up, but are
(13:33):
there particular industries that might benefit more than others as
a result of the deregulation.
Speaker 3 (13:40):
I think the batters must be flat on the crystal ball,
because I would assume tech is the big one.
Speaker 2 (13:49):
Yes, and that's a big one anyway, isn't it.
Speaker 3 (13:51):
Yep, tech and all the stuff and forms one of
the areas of tech. I really like the so called
clean tech, which is technology designed to make the world
a cleaner place, have better environments, have less carbon in
the atmosphere, and so forth. I don't think that that
area is going to be so good under I mean,
(14:13):
he's still a he's still a climate change DENI you know,
listen to several podcasts that talk significantly about that. But
if you come to other tech, if you come to
AI and particularly but also biotechnology, and one little area
(14:33):
that I particularly like is medical devices. So it's all
the various things that help make us get well. And
you know, there's a never ending demand with the baby
boomer generation getting older and so forth, a never ending
demand for better and better health care.
Speaker 2 (14:53):
That's an interesting one, isn't it. Okay, Look, we want
to take a break and we'll be back in just
a moment, but we want to know what your thoughts
are regarding the Trump presidency and what it means for
where you might want to put your and doesn't mean
that the suddenly the US share market with the US
businesses is the place where you want to put it.
I eight one hundred eighty ten to eighty text nine
(15:15):
nine two. My guest is Martin Horsey's a financial writer,
and it will be back in just a moment. It's
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Speaker 1 (16:17):
Helping you get on top of your busy life. Tim
Beveridge on the Weekend Collective News.
Speaker 2 (16:22):
Talk s B Yes, and we are with Martin Hawes,
a financial author and writer of No matter how many
books is it?
Speaker 3 (16:29):
Martin twenty twenty four?
Speaker 2 (16:33):
How on have you?
Speaker 5 (16:34):
Have?
Speaker 2 (16:34):
You released another one?
Speaker 3 (16:35):
And you're still working at there's another one and I
think we might talk about it last time I was
on air. I've sent the manuscript off for another one
and the publisher publishers doing all the things that it does,
like designing a cover, on getting it punted and so forth.
That will come out in March, and that will be
number twenty four.
Speaker 2 (16:54):
Okay, Look, we want your calls now on the on
the outcome of the US election. Does it affect where
you're going to put your money? Where does your optimism lie?
Where do you think the money is going to money
is going to do the best. Martin has made the
comment that the that I think if I'm not going
to paraphrase you incorrectly, Martin. You can always jump in
if I do get wrong that the US share market
(17:16):
is looking like it's actually going to do pretty well
and will continue to do quite well. But my guess,
my question is I always assume that once someone like
you has said it, Martin, that that horse has bolted,
and then I'll be too slow or too late.
Speaker 3 (17:30):
Now, yeah, not that comes back to what we're talking about.
For not if you are a long term in vesta. Yes,
if you were a trader, and and look, I'm not
saying that you're you know, if you brought sheers that
they would simply go up on a straight line. They weren't.
There'll be a lot of volatile until that. They will
be ups and downs, good times, bad times, and so forth.
(17:55):
But I think there'll be more good times than there
are bad times. And my guess is that if you
bought a basket of various technologies shares and set on
them for ten years, you'd be very pleased that you did.
Speaker 2 (18:10):
Yeah, that's an interesting one actually, because there have been
some superstar shares of course, and technology and what is
in video, they had some amazing growth. How are they
looking at the moment. Do you follow them, mate?
Speaker 3 (18:21):
Yes, so, because they're in my portfolio, and they have
been for a good time. They are so in my
portfolio portfolio. They are a so called ten bagger, which
means they've gone up. It means that they've gone up
by a factor of ten. That is, they've multiplied multiply
ten times. And given that they still control seventy five
(18:42):
percent of the chips that are needed for AI, I
don't think that they are a lot of the price
that we built on, but I think they're going to
continue to do very well. They are an excellent company.
The chips that they design, they don't make chips. This
is computer chips. They don't make them. They just design them.
(19:04):
They have somebody else makeing for them. The chops that
they design are ahead of the pack, and their job
is to keep ahead of the pack. And it looks
like but I'm doing that fairly Saturday Factorially.
Speaker 2 (19:16):
Right, we're going to take your calls one hundred and
eighty ten eighty. Initially, our conversation is going to be
on what does Donald Trump's win mean for share markets
in particular, maybe the New Zealand markets as well. I
tend to think probably. I don't know what it's going
to do there, but we're going to let's take some
calls and we'll dig into that with Martin in just
a moment. Greg, Hello, good any general, general?
Speaker 3 (19:39):
I agree? High a Greek.
Speaker 5 (19:41):
Sorry, I'm in a bad communication zone. He gentlemen, how
are you good?
Speaker 2 (19:46):
Good?
Speaker 3 (19:46):
Good?
Speaker 5 (19:48):
Just picking up on Jamie McKay's the host of the country. Yeah,
the country that the red meat industry. This is a
little bit off topic, but the lamb and be for
the red meat exports he has. I have a lot
of commentators in the last week talking about the potential
(20:09):
for a little bit of a silver lining. This is
as a wee bit off topic, but it's.
Speaker 2 (20:15):
All about trade and money. You're welcome to carry on, Yeah,
where you go.
Speaker 5 (20:20):
Yeah, absolutely. So you know he's going to go after
Trump that is is going to go after the you know,
the illegal immigrant workers that a lot of the farmers
are employing, and they're going to tell the farmers to
pay the going rate for for for labor, et cetera.
So how do you how do you see agricultural exports
(20:45):
with the red meat and it's not just the burger meat,
which we've been sending to the US for quite some time.
But some of them are the premium meats, and this
is what Jamie has been talking about. That could be
particularly with a declining New Zealand dollar at the moment,
that could be a pretty good windfall, could it not?
Speaker 3 (21:05):
It could be, Greg And I would hesitate before I
argued with Jamie mackay about agricultural stuff because he knows
more about it than I do. But what happens if
there's a ten or twenty percent on the meat that's
landing on the shores of the US. Now they are
our biggest I think the US is our biggest red
(21:25):
meat buyer. So what happens to our lamb? And if
that dries up? Now all very well to say, well,
the Americans may not be abut to produce enough of
what if there's a ten or twenty percent tariff of
or not? These things? You know, pricing is usually really sensitive.
Speaker 2 (21:49):
Yeah, what do you think of it? What did you
think of it? Gregor do you do you think that's
going to be?
Speaker 5 (21:56):
This was discussed on two cable news networks, NBC and
also Fox about that very thing. And because the American
farmers if they are forced to not have illegal immigrants
working on their farms and paying them five six seven
dollars now instead of fifteen sixteen. Their production costs are
(22:18):
going to go up and the New Zealand exporters will
be able to work through maybe a tariff. The other
thing I would say too, the incumbent government that we
have at the moment has probably got the best chance
ever of shmewing Trump and maybe limiting that tariff and
(22:38):
maybe not a tariff at all, because American consumers are
looking for quality products.
Speaker 2 (22:44):
Are you saying, so we've got a good chance because
they want our quality products?
Speaker 5 (22:49):
Well, well exactly. I mean if you go if you
go back to the previous six years of government governance
that we had here, if Trump had been in power
at that time, there would not be a lot of conversation.
I remember just under referring to Trump as that guy
or the other guy, and she would never wanted to
(23:11):
sit down. So is it Tim Grocer who's traveling all
over the world trying to.
Speaker 2 (23:17):
In terms of our ministers, it's Todd McLay and Winston Peters,
who I think pretty good at their job, and Tim
Grocer is yeah, I can't remember what his rollers. I
guess this is this is the part of the problem
used to be that.
Speaker 3 (23:31):
Yeah, yeah, it is. I see the problem is Greek.
We just don't know, and I don't know. I mean,
I'm not a politician, but I wouldn't back myself to
go and get an appointment was Trump as Prime Minister
of New Zealand. But b even if I got up
to get him to concentrate for very long about New
(23:54):
Zealand exceptionalism. That is, everybody else can have a tariff,
but not us. And I think every man in the
dog from European countries right through to the American ones
will be trying that on if they do anoun say,
and all of the podcasts and stuff that I read
suggest that Trump loves tariffs and always has done.
Speaker 2 (24:18):
Actually, it is interesting.
Speaker 3 (24:20):
I think we'd be lucky to be making and be
made an exceptional.
Speaker 2 (24:23):
Yeah, Greg, it's an interesting point you raised though about
the cost about how everything's connected. So if he does
successfully crack down on illegal immigrants and farms, a lot
of the farming produce and work there has been sort
of supported by cheap immigrant labor, it does I mean,
it's a complex scenario, isn't it. Because it also assumes
(24:43):
that he's going to be successful at trying to purge
a million or two million illegal immigrants from the USA,
and I'm predicting failure on that one because it's just
I think they're too embedded in American American culture. What
do you reckon, Greg.
Speaker 5 (24:59):
Well, I see most of the Democratic state governors and
are saying the Federals can come in. We're going to
defend these people to the very last, you know whatever,
and that's that's that happens.
Speaker 2 (25:13):
That's going to be terrible.
Speaker 5 (25:15):
But I'm thinking more so that the American agricultural industry
is going to find higher costs and producing what they're doing,
and we have this quality thing that's going on. But
at the end of the day, I mean, you look
at Alban Easy in Australia has already said to Trump,
you know, let's keep Orcus and all this sort of
(25:38):
stuff going on. So this is another dimension to my conversation.
What will Winston Peters do about being a supporter and
principle of aucas if it were to mean that we
could get a favorable trade deal.
Speaker 2 (25:52):
Yeah, okay, well, of course lots of things to plug
in there aren't there Martin. Thanks for call. Greg. Sorry,
did you have a comment there money? No, I didn't know. Yeah,
because we're almost getting into a little bit of politics
central there. I guess the thing about the tariffs which
make it, you know, that makes it. We're playing so
much guessing with this because there's an on the hustings
(26:16):
I'm gonna and we know Trump likes likes, Trump likes tariffs,
and he's talked about ten or twenty percent. But then again,
there's a reason America imports a lot of our beef.
It's because our beef is really good and they don't
create enough of it. So it doesn't make sense that
they would necessarily put a tariff on our beef because
(26:36):
it's just going to hurt the American consumer, as opposed
to if America was producing truckloads of beef, then there
might be an argument for tariffs so they can sell
more to their own consumers. But if they need ours,
why would they tariff it?
Speaker 3 (26:52):
Well, because they his comments were that there would be
a blenk tariff. And you know, they don't make enough
bananas for example, either or they don't make any does widgets,
and there'll be lots of things that There'll be lots
of countries and companies that will be going well, you
(27:13):
know that should apply to other people, but not not
to us. Whereas if he does this as a blanket,
everything that comes into the country has a ten or
twenty percent terrify not then that will be very hard
to get through. We have to really behave ourselves.
Speaker 2 (27:32):
I think paving ourselves make a difference. Look, we're going
another call will go to in just a moment, but
we will take a break. It's twenty three minutes to
Sex News Talks. He'd b yes, radio Gaga in a way,
(27:52):
we're a little bit Radio Gaga. This is the health
not the health of This is smart money with Martin Hawes.
I'm Tim Beverage. And because we're talking about that where
the markets might go under a Trump presidency, well, we
know we've got the Trump presidency. What's it going to
do to the share market? And where should you put
your money? Oh, eight hundred eighty ten eighty. I've got
some questions for Martin, but first let's go to Tony.
Speaker 4 (28:12):
Hello, Tim and Martin. Look a good question. At the
start of the program, Martin said that he had a
share that went up ten times you know, for this
original purchase price. But when would someone when would you
think about, actually, you know, in a situation like they're basically,
you know, over taking on shares that have gone up
(28:32):
a lot. One of the factors that would make you
basically think about sort of taking the money and not
so much running, but maybe sort of Well, I've been lucky.
I mean, you know, I've worked out well at this stage,
but at some time you know you're going to sort
of turn it into cash.
Speaker 3 (28:48):
Yeah, well, a really good question. My first of all,
I'm not managing my own money. One of the reasons
I don't manage my own money is that although I'm
not a bad buyer of investments, I'm not a terribly
good seller, and I tend to get to have an
emotional attached and don't sell. But the basic principle would
(29:10):
be you might look at selling something like an Nvidia
if something substantial, systemic, or something major had happened within
the company and its place in the market was no
longer the event, you might sell the whole lot. The
(29:32):
second thing to say is that as that sheer has
gone up, my managers have been what's called trimming it.
That is, they've been selling little bits of it, you know.
So for example, that might have started off as two
percent of my total portfolio. As it went up, it
(29:53):
turns into five percent. Now that's a fairly big slug
for just one security in the portfolio. So I would
my well, my managers, I keep talking about me doing this,
I don't know. My managers have been trimming that periodically.
As it's turned out. I wish they hadn't trimmed it.
It would be but it would be a big chunk.
(30:14):
Now it might be twenty percent of the portfolio now
if it hadn't been trimmed. But you are talking to
somebody who's not a work would sell up of shares.
My instinct isn't the sell No. I A I work
on a basis, or I used to work on a
basis that I would try to buy good businesses so
(30:35):
that I wasn't buying shears I was buying I was
actually buying a little bit of a business. I'd try
to get that at a fair price or better, and
then I don't trade. I tend to hold them for
very long term, long term. My basic thing was to
look at the big secular cycles and the really big
(30:55):
things that are going on in the world and trying
to play those from an investment point of view, the
obvious one of them and all that's different, guys, is
is something that I would be trying to play at
the moment.
Speaker 4 (31:10):
Right, So you wouldn't subscribe to the velocity of living
a bit in an next and moving it on where
you've basically done well, it's not a good idea. You've
basically sort of got a sort of maybe cheshire bit
to secure and then your initial investment and then sell
off little bits like your manager's doing book your sees,
is it right?
Speaker 3 (31:28):
Yes, I'm not if I was managing my own money.
I'm not going to sell out of a really good company.
So as a really well run company, it's doing stuff
that almost nobody else is doing it. It's got pricing power,
so it's pushing up the price of its silicon chips
(31:50):
more and more. So, Yeah, I don't mind selling a
little bit so it doesn't become too dominant within the portfolio.
But I'm not going to get right out of it.
Speaker 4 (32:00):
Okay, I've got thank.
Speaker 2 (32:04):
Actually you do it. I mean the question about when
to sell is you do a whole hour on that
really isn't it? Because and Hindsight's fabulous, isn't it.
Speaker 3 (32:16):
I love homesight. Yeah, you'd probably want somebody else on
the show rather than me if you're going to be
talking about selling, because I really, you know, it was
one of the things that I identified about myself that
I am a good buyer. I'm not a bad buyer,
but I'm a very poor seller.
Speaker 1 (32:34):
Is it?
Speaker 5 (32:35):
Just?
Speaker 2 (32:35):
Look, I know you don't like you're not going to
give specific financial advice, but just as a banterish sort
of question, I look at the tariff potentials, right, and
I look at one of the guy who's in the
tent with Trump, and that is Elon Musk. And my
(32:56):
gut tells me, probably wouldn't hurt to buy Tesla shares.
And then the other part of my gut says, well,
I get told that usually the market is wake quicker
than I'll ever be, and that's probably been priced in.
And I noticed that the share price for Tesla since
the fifth and November has gone up from two hundred
(33:16):
and two hundred and fifty bucks, sorry, two hundred and
forty dollars to three hundred and twenty already.
Speaker 3 (33:24):
Yeah, I was going to say I think it's up
twenty percent. So look, as a short term thing, you've
missed the boat. If it's right there, Tesla is going
to be able to ride a particular, particularly favorable wave,
and it'll be able to do that for ten years.
(33:45):
Then yes, it'll have ups and downs, but maybe you
should buy it because it it could be good at
it almost at any price. If it really does well,
I've no doubt that Musk will be doing his very
best to leave off the relationship piece. Now I've got
with the President elect of the United States. You know.
Speaker 2 (34:04):
The funny thing about the risk with that is is
that there are and this is based on history, is
that Trump has relationships which persist. But then he does
have relationships where people fall out with him. I mean
some of the people he put in his first administration,
he loved them, and all of a sudden he fell
out with him. My risk would be, my worry would
be that if Elon actually at some stage really I
(34:25):
don't know, and I don't suspect he is going to,
But if they have a clash of egos suddenly and
he falls out with Trump, then I don't know what
that would mean. But that's these are the sorts of
things that at play, aren't they if you're narrowing your
investment focus too much, and that's.
Speaker 3 (34:41):
Not the sort of thing I like an investment where
it can they hang hang on a personal relationship. Because
I think you're absolutely right. The chances have been falling
out at quite great Anthony Scaramucci last that I thought
six or seven days or something as a director of
(35:02):
communications in the White House.
Speaker 2 (35:04):
Oh that's right. That was a spectacularly short time and
entertaining at the time, wasn't it.
Speaker 3 (35:09):
Yes, yes, it was.
Speaker 2 (35:10):
What about people who are interested in in who think
I mean, again, I know it's not specific advice, but
say you decide you love tech stocks, and you think, look,
I actually really believe that the nvideos of this world
and other tech stocks. So I'm going to buy into
a fund that focuses on American tech stocks. And again
(35:31):
this is rule of thumb stuff, because everyone has their
own appetite for risk. But there'd be those who think
I'm going to stick everything I've got into American tech stocks.
Is that?
Speaker 3 (35:39):
No? No, I mean, I wouldn't do that. But what
I would do, perhaps is have a fund that owned
the S and P five hundred, which is the top
five hundred companies. Now that has the magnificence seven to
the top a dozen. Also companies of that or say
eight or ten companies are technology stocks. But then on
(36:00):
top of that, I might have ten percent of a
portfolio or something which isocus solely on technology, and also
to focus on technologies that are outside of AI, outside
of the likes of Amazon, Alphabet, Apple and so forth,
and looking at things like medical devices and possibly even
(36:24):
in spite of Trump, clean tech. Yeah, yeah, it may maybe,
especially if it was involved around the world, like I
would potentially and I don't know of one that exists,
but I would potentially by a company in New Zealand
that that solar you know, that was selling solar panels
(36:47):
or something within New Zealand. Now I don't know whether one.
I know that a lot of small providers, none of
them listed. I don't think that you can buy on
the share market, but you know, we you know we can.
We can start putting solar panels on our roofs. And
Trump is not going to care one way or the other.
Speaker 2 (37:05):
Well, the other thing is the world has an appetite
for clean technology, and if those companies in America producing.
It doesn't matter whether America wants to actually adopt all
those technologies, which I suspect it still will. The world
is still interested, so intuitively, it doesn't seem like it's
such a dog. No.
Speaker 3 (37:23):
And the companies in the US that are trying to
do direct carbon capture, for example, these are machines that
suck in the atmosphere, strip out the carbon, turn the
carbon into something solid like a big block, and dispose
of that thick a hole. Now there are a lot
of companies in the up not a lot, but there
(37:43):
are companies in the US working on that, and in
Switzerland and Finland. They will carry Yeah, yeah, it does.
They will carry on doing that. And Trump or no Trump,
but it won't matter because the price of carbon will
read the price of carbon probably who knows.
Speaker 2 (38:02):
That's fascinating probably Yeah. Okay, Well, we'll come back to
wrap up in just a moment. It is nine minutes
to six. This is news Talk, said b his news
talk said, be Tim beveridgeard my guest for Smart Money,
as Martin Hawes. Martin, Gosh, time flies it because we've
sort of it's been more of an easy banter today
because there is so much uncertainty about what's what America
(38:22):
is going to do when it comes to tariffs and
all that. Can I run past you so you you
you've made the comment that Trump is he likes tariffs,
and he does like them broadly speaking, whereas we had
Morris Williamson on and who did make the comment that
he thinks that for a bunch of reasons, that it
(38:42):
might not be the smartest thing to be his blanket
with the tariffs and everything. He sort of thinks that
there's a lot of bluster and that basically, look, we
should just have a cup of tea and lie down
and we'll it'll be fine. It won't be as bad.
Does that inform your opinion at all?
Speaker 3 (38:58):
No, it's exactly my opinion really right at the top
of the show that we just don't know that, you know,
I mean, he's so mercurial that but I think there's
a reasonable chance we will see not so much tariffs.
I think there's almost a certainty that we'll see tariffs
(39:20):
on going. I mean there's been quite big tariffs under
under Biden, Yes, but that we might see there's there's
a chance at least that we will see blanket tariffs,
that is, every article that comes into the US as
subject to a tariff. And I mean Morross Williams highly experiences.
(39:42):
Now the Minister of the Crown, he's a Minister of
Trade or something like that, customers as well, something like that.
He will know a lot about this. But we're all
showing a dart at a dart board and the fund
the mass because we just don't know him.
Speaker 2 (40:01):
It's quite a fit. It's been interesting to bander about it,
and also just a few ideas about tech stocks and
what it's going to do. And even can make their
own decisions, but it's always good to get good advice.
And usually a good fund manager will do way better
of managing your shares than you will. Isn't that right?
Speaker 3 (40:17):
Generally? I'm certainly finding I'm certainly finding that for myself
because no longer imagining my money, I've handed my money
over to others. And I think it hur's to say it,
but I think they they are doing better than I
was doing. I was doing okay, but I was only
doing it.
Speaker 2 (40:34):
I don't mean you, I meant me probably no. Hey,
And the good thing is, look if they don't buy
quite as much as bad beef. Maybe we'll be able
to get some of the good stuff because I was
told by meat exporters like, oh, I know, all the
good stuff goes overseas, so maybe anyway, hey man, thanks,
thanks so much mate for your time. Really appreciate it.
Thanks Jerry, and thanks my producer, Tyre Roberts. So check
(40:55):
out the podcast week and collect them on iut Radio
and Sunday at six is next.
Speaker 1 (41:00):
For more from the Weekend Collective, listen live to news
Talks it'd be weekends from three pm, or follow the
podcast on iHeartRadio.
You're listening to the Weekend Collective Podcast from News Talks.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
Be the best things in life for free.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
You can give it to the birds and bees.
Speaker 3 (00:18):
I want money.
Speaker 4 (00:33):
All a won't.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
Yeah, So welcome back to the Weekend Collective. I'm Tim Beverage.
And by the way, I you've must even of our
previous house. We just had a chat with Kent John's
from Kent John's Health around just avoiding interview burnout and
also a bit of a chat about diabetes given its
Stabetes Action Month. But the politics as well on Politics
Central from three o'clock was I had a couple of
really interesting interviews actually Marco Rubio's former chief of staff
(00:58):
staff Matt Terrell, talking about the just the Trump administration,
the landslide went and what we can look forward to.
And we carry on that theme when we had a
chat with Maurris Williamson as well, who was the console
former Consule General to Los Angeles in Los Angeles and
just had his take on it as well. So if
you missed any of that, then you can go and
check out the Weekend Collective Podcast wherever you podcast, but
(01:20):
go to iHeartRadio anyway. Right now, it is time for
smart money. We want your calls eight hundred eighty ten
eighty text nine two nine two. And my guest, he's
a regular on the show's a finance writer and his
name is He's written a bunch of bookx as well.
Martin Hawes.
Speaker 3 (01:36):
Gooday, yeah, hi there, Tom. How are you?
Speaker 2 (01:39):
I'm not too bad? How have you been good?
Speaker 3 (01:41):
Really good? Thank you? Very very interesting. Interested in everything
that's going on in the world at the moment, and
Trump is sort of the gift that keeps on giving. Yeah,
journos and people like that must be the life of
They would never sit around sucking their pencils to write
about I.
Speaker 2 (02:00):
Guess so although what came out of the politics, there
is a lot of people are a little bit more
or or you know, the people who be very activated
about it, and there's going to be obviously with American politics,
or there's always a story there. But I'm fairly sanguine
about it. In a way. I'm feeling really not as
not as het up as I thought I might be,
(02:21):
because you know, we've been there, done that, He's been there,
done that, and the question is we can just have
more rational discussions about what does it mean? And do
you have an interest. You would have an interest in
that in terms of what a Trump administration means for money,
wouldn't you.
Speaker 3 (02:35):
Yes, I certainly do with that. But I've followed politics
with interest since I was sixteen years old, and that
was a long time ago. So I'm you know, I'm
really interested. I'm almost podcasted out at the moment. I
get a lot of podcasts from all around the world
and I'm listening listening to them. But the thing that
I would say about Trump is that it is just
(02:57):
so hard to know what he's going to do. He
is so mercurial that, you know, we just we just
can't can't guess what it is. The other thing is
that this election, and I think probably all American elections,
are fought on sort of big ideas without ever getting
into the detail of policy. So here in New Zealand,
(03:21):
you know, we have an election and somebody says we're
going to do a and people will say, well is
that cost it? And it needs to be costed to
with an inch of its life. In America, they just
talk about big ideas. You know, Trump says we're going
to lower tax Well, what tax taxes are you going
to lower? He doesn't bother with that sort of detail.
(03:42):
Neither did Harris, you know, to be to be fair,
they just sort of they just sort of It's kind
of a popularity got contest almost is it actually is,
isn't it?
Speaker 2 (03:52):
And look, in hindsight now I think that they focus
the Democrats focused way too much on identity politics. You're
a woman, therefore she had vote. You should vote for me,
You're you know, you're black, you should vote for me.
You're a Hispanic, you should vote for me, When in fact, yeah,
that probably missed them obviously missed the mark because it
was a landslide. Did you see it coming? No?
Speaker 3 (04:11):
But I didn't see anything coming, So I wasn't totally
wrong or totally right. I couldn't. I just thought it
could go anyway.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
So what sort of podcasts have you been? Do you
download podcasts from the point of view of politics or
do they have a sort of financial business share market
currency slant to them?
Speaker 3 (04:33):
A bit of both, but more politics, like BBC New
York Times, various other ones which are really about politics.
But you know, one of the things that as an
investor that we always have to keep an eye on
is politics, and in particular geopolitics. And I don't think
i've ever in my fifty or getting close to sixty
(04:58):
fifty or sixty years of following this, I don't think
I've ever seen a more dangerous time in geo politics
than what we have at the moment. And of course
Trump because we don't know what he's going to do,
you know, and so vague that it's even more dangerous
because we just don't know how the cards are going
(05:18):
to fall. Yeah, and the other thing I sort of can't.
I couldn't believe I heard this, but you know, Elon
Musk was on the and on the conversation and on
the call between Trump and Zelenski, who, Yeah, well, you
know what's going on here. Now. You know, he's obviously
(05:40):
bought Elon Muskin and they've done the the loving bro thing,
even though they said they hated each other before. But
you know, Trump is just so he's not tied to
institutions and he's not tied to rules, and he'll be
he can and he does do anything.
Speaker 2 (06:02):
Yes, I don't know how I adress that one, but yeah,
Elon Musk ended up on a call with Volodimi's Donald Trump. That, yes,
that does make me a little nervous because it just
feels about feels a bit random, doesn't it.
Speaker 3 (06:18):
Yes, well, they were arguing a couple of days ago
about what levels of security clearance that they were going
to need, and of course Trump was saying, well, you know,
we don't need the FBI to get involved in this.
Was any of my good mates are fine.
Speaker 2 (06:34):
Oh okay, it does sound that learns a little Groundhog
Day for me. Now that's but random, so go I'm sorry.
Speaker 3 (06:42):
Yeah, yeah, I was just going to say, it's the
whole thing is very awkward. We we just don't know
what's what's going to happen. If he did, for example,
bring his towerff Son as stated, you know, ten to
twenty percent for everyone. It doesn't matter whether you're an
ally or a friend or indeed an enemy, you're going
to have at least ten to twenty percent and a
(07:03):
sixty percent on any tower from Chinese goods. So that,
I mean, that's got major economicification ramifications.
Speaker 2 (07:15):
And they think, do you think that those well, as
you even just said, and it's not the first time
I've seen that stat. Ten to twenty percent on all
goods from overseas countries is what he's talked about but
there's a big difference between ten percent and twenty percent,
And there are tariffs in place already, and of course,
if you're an EV manufacturer in China, you're paying one
hundred percent tariff already on EV's even under the Biden administration. Yeah,
(07:38):
it's I mean, yeah, so.
Speaker 3 (07:44):
What Tim, You're almost speechless?
Speaker 2 (07:47):
Well, I sort of am, just because because I don't
We just don't know, do we. But also in terms
of the context of is that threat, is it as
dramatics as it sounds, or just in terms of New
Zealand exports, are we facing tariffs already? And to be honest, look,
you know we're already paying ten percent or does it
(08:07):
mean it's going to get worse? I mean, we just
don't know, do we.
Speaker 3 (08:10):
No, No, we don't know. The other two big things,
and this is important for your money, for your kiwisaver
or for those who are investing, is the two things
that he has promised is deregulation and tax cuts. Now, look,
yet again there's no detail on us. But that's why
since Trump will it become the president elect, That's why
(08:33):
the share market in the US at least has gone
off on a tier. So shares of rivers and sharp
on Friday night. They came off a little a little bit,
but you know, very sharp rises. And if you think
of this strong a party point of view, the Republicans
are supposedly the business friendly party, and it looks like
(08:55):
the Republicans could have a clean sweep. So tax cuts
and deregulation, whatever tax cuts are and whatever deregulation is
very very likely.
Speaker 2 (09:06):
Because tax cuts can be inflationary, can't they Because it's
and here going to sounds like he is going to
borrow a lot more. Yes, are your thoughts on that.
Speaker 3 (09:18):
I think he'll He'll probably have to, but you know,
one of the things you've got to sit back and ask.
So they're going to be tax cuts that increases corporate profitability,
So the companies that are listed on the share markets
should have more profitability. Therefore share prices should be higher.
And deregulation cuts costs and allows people into various markets
(09:40):
much more easily, and therefore companies we tend will tend
to make a lot more profit. And that's why the
shares have gone up so much in the last two
or three days. And in my view it's while they'll
probably continue to go.
Speaker 2 (09:57):
That's yeah, because I was wondering if you know, just
the fact of the election win sort of spikes the
the share market a bit, but whether that that's it
sort of gets priced in already, but you think it's
just going to continue to go up.
Speaker 3 (10:11):
I think Trump's victory has taken the share market a
bit by surprise, and I think it's pushed it up.
It'll be easier if there is the regulation, it'll be
easier to do business in the US. Presumably it'll be
more profitable. It's the US. US businesses are already fabulous
(10:35):
money making machines. They will become even more so. And
you know, I looked at my portfolio before I came
on here. I don't manage it but anymore. But I
have ten percent in the New Zealand share market. I
have about twenty five percent in the US market.
Speaker 2 (10:54):
Yeah, and what happened to that? So I can get
on It's it's.
Speaker 3 (10:59):
Done extremely well. What your your keyp be, say, Tim
will be will be similarly invested that. You know, mine's
not terribly radical, really, but all these companies like you know, well,
the magnificence even and particularly Microsoft, Apple and vid, Amazon
and so forth, all of these are going to do
extremely well. I think over the overcoming a year or two,
(11:20):
or three or.
Speaker 2 (11:20):
Four, how much of it gets how much of that
price bump happens sort of instantly, it gets priced in
because people are expecting an anticipation. In other words, has
the bump that's happened to a lot of those stocks?
I mean, how much should you be aware of the
(11:42):
fact that they might get ahead of themselves in terms
of their genuine value as opposed to the notion that
Trump's and this is good for the company, we must
be worth more. But actually the fundamentals might eventually go well,
not as much as you thought.
Speaker 3 (11:55):
Yeah, it's a really good question, and you'll have to
give me a moment to fire up my crystal ball
and have a look and see what's going happened. I
think this is more than a short term bumph, you know.
I think that this is you know that the tax
cuts maybe one off or there, maybe a couple of them,
who knows, But deregulation, it seems to me to be
(12:17):
much more systemic. And you know, I think the Republicans,
if the Republicans control presidents in the House and in
the Senate, you know, I think you'll find it a
lot easier to do business. I think my causinesses will
be more profitable.
Speaker 2 (12:34):
Okay, do you like that?
Speaker 3 (12:36):
Well, I like businesses to be profitable. But you know,
if if that's at the cost of deregulation, which makes workplaces,
for example, somewhat unsafe, then I don't like it. It depends.
It just depends what it is.
Speaker 2 (12:51):
I guess we actually, of course it depends because business
covers just a multitude of products and services and industries
and things, doesn't It's difficult to sort of sum it
up if you okay, well, it's just we're going to
throw it by the way for you to give us
call on the Trump presidency. Does is it something that's
(13:11):
going to entract attract your investment dollar in any particular
form regarding the sher market or industry and where you're
going to put your money. What do you think it's
going to do for for investment generally? Because Martin is
there are particular Are there particular industries that sort of well,
I'm assuming you fired your crystal ball up, but are
(13:33):
there particular industries that might benefit more than others as
a result of the deregulation.
Speaker 3 (13:40):
I think the batters must be flat on the crystal ball,
because I would assume tech is the big one.
Speaker 2 (13:49):
Yes, and that's a big one anyway, isn't it.
Speaker 3 (13:51):
Yep, tech and all the stuff and forms one of
the areas of tech. I really like the so called
clean tech, which is technology designed to make the world
a cleaner place, have better environments, have less carbon in
the atmosphere, and so forth. I don't think that that
area is going to be so good under I mean,
(14:13):
he's still a he's still a climate change DENI you know,
listen to several podcasts that talk significantly about that. But
if you come to other tech, if you come to
AI and particularly but also biotechnology, and one little area
(14:33):
that I particularly like is medical devices. So it's all
the various things that help make us get well. And
you know, there's a never ending demand with the baby
boomer generation getting older and so forth, a never ending
demand for better and better health care.
Speaker 2 (14:53):
That's an interesting one, isn't it. Okay, Look, we want
to take a break and we'll be back in just
a moment, but we want to know what your thoughts
are regarding the Trump presidency and what it means for
where you might want to put your and doesn't mean
that the suddenly the US share market with the US
businesses is the place where you want to put it.
I eight one hundred eighty ten to eighty text nine
(15:15):
nine two. My guest is Martin Horsey's a financial writer,
and it will be back in just a moment. It's
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Speaker 1 (16:17):
Helping you get on top of your busy life. Tim
Beveridge on the Weekend Collective News.
Speaker 2 (16:22):
Talk s B Yes, and we are with Martin Hawes,
a financial author and writer of No matter how many
books is it?
Speaker 3 (16:29):
Martin twenty twenty four?
Speaker 2 (16:33):
How on have you?
Speaker 5 (16:34):
Have?
Speaker 2 (16:34):
You released another one?
Speaker 3 (16:35):
And you're still working at there's another one and I
think we might talk about it last time I was
on air. I've sent the manuscript off for another one
and the publisher publishers doing all the things that it does,
like designing a cover, on getting it punted and so forth.
That will come out in March, and that will be
number twenty four.
Speaker 2 (16:54):
Okay, Look, we want your calls now on the on
the outcome of the US election. Does it affect where
you're going to put your money? Where does your optimism lie?
Where do you think the money is going to money
is going to do the best. Martin has made the
comment that the that I think if I'm not going
to paraphrase you incorrectly, Martin. You can always jump in
if I do get wrong that the US share market
(17:16):
is looking like it's actually going to do pretty well
and will continue to do quite well. But my guess,
my question is I always assume that once someone like
you has said it, Martin, that that horse has bolted,
and then I'll be too slow or too late.
Speaker 3 (17:30):
Now, yeah, not that comes back to what we're talking about.
For not if you are a long term in vesta. Yes,
if you were a trader, and and look, I'm not
saying that you're you know, if you brought sheers that
they would simply go up on a straight line. They weren't.
There'll be a lot of volatile until that. They will
be ups and downs, good times, bad times, and so forth.
(17:55):
But I think there'll be more good times than there
are bad times. And my guess is that if you
bought a basket of various technologies shares and set on
them for ten years, you'd be very pleased that you did.
Speaker 2 (18:10):
Yeah, that's an interesting one actually, because there have been
some superstar shares of course, and technology and what is
in video, they had some amazing growth. How are they
looking at the moment. Do you follow them, mate?
Speaker 3 (18:21):
Yes, so, because they're in my portfolio, and they have
been for a good time. They are so in my
portfolio portfolio. They are a so called ten bagger, which
means they've gone up. It means that they've gone up
by a factor of ten. That is, they've multiplied multiply
ten times. And given that they still control seventy five
(18:42):
percent of the chips that are needed for AI, I
don't think that they are a lot of the price
that we built on, but I think they're going to
continue to do very well. They are an excellent company.
The chips that they design, they don't make chips. This
is computer chips. They don't make them. They just design them.
(19:04):
They have somebody else makeing for them. The chops that
they design are ahead of the pack, and their job
is to keep ahead of the pack. And it looks
like but I'm doing that fairly Saturday Factorially.
Speaker 2 (19:16):
Right, we're going to take your calls one hundred and
eighty ten eighty. Initially, our conversation is going to be
on what does Donald Trump's win mean for share markets
in particular, maybe the New Zealand markets as well. I
tend to think probably. I don't know what it's going
to do there, but we're going to let's take some
calls and we'll dig into that with Martin in just
a moment. Greg, Hello, good any general, general?
Speaker 3 (19:39):
I agree? High a Greek.
Speaker 5 (19:41):
Sorry, I'm in a bad communication zone. He gentlemen, how
are you good?
Speaker 2 (19:46):
Good?
Speaker 3 (19:46):
Good?
Speaker 5 (19:48):
Just picking up on Jamie McKay's the host of the country. Yeah,
the country that the red meat industry. This is a
little bit off topic, but the lamb and be for
the red meat exports he has. I have a lot
of commentators in the last week talking about the potential
(20:09):
for a little bit of a silver lining. This is
as a wee bit off topic, but it's.
Speaker 2 (20:15):
All about trade and money. You're welcome to carry on, Yeah,
where you go.
Speaker 5 (20:20):
Yeah, absolutely. So you know he's going to go after
Trump that is is going to go after the you know,
the illegal immigrant workers that a lot of the farmers
are employing, and they're going to tell the farmers to
pay the going rate for for for labor, et cetera.
So how do you how do you see agricultural exports
(20:45):
with the red meat and it's not just the burger meat,
which we've been sending to the US for quite some time.
But some of them are the premium meats, and this
is what Jamie has been talking about. That could be
particularly with a declining New Zealand dollar at the moment,
that could be a pretty good windfall, could it not?
Speaker 3 (21:05):
It could be, Greg And I would hesitate before I
argued with Jamie mackay about agricultural stuff because he knows
more about it than I do. But what happens if
there's a ten or twenty percent on the meat that's
landing on the shores of the US. Now they are
our biggest I think the US is our biggest red
(21:25):
meat buyer. So what happens to our lamb? And if
that dries up? Now all very well to say, well,
the Americans may not be abut to produce enough of
what if there's a ten or twenty percent tariff of
or not? These things? You know, pricing is usually really sensitive.
Speaker 2 (21:49):
Yeah, what do you think of it? What did you
think of it? Gregor do you do you think that's
going to be?
Speaker 5 (21:56):
This was discussed on two cable news networks, NBC and
also Fox about that very thing. And because the American
farmers if they are forced to not have illegal immigrants
working on their farms and paying them five six seven
dollars now instead of fifteen sixteen. Their production costs are
(22:18):
going to go up and the New Zealand exporters will
be able to work through maybe a tariff. The other
thing I would say too, the incumbent government that we
have at the moment has probably got the best chance
ever of shmewing Trump and maybe limiting that tariff and
(22:38):
maybe not a tariff at all, because American consumers are
looking for quality products.
Speaker 2 (22:44):
Are you saying, so we've got a good chance because
they want our quality products?
Speaker 5 (22:49):
Well, well exactly. I mean if you go if you
go back to the previous six years of government governance
that we had here, if Trump had been in power
at that time, there would not be a lot of conversation.
I remember just under referring to Trump as that guy
or the other guy, and she would never wanted to
(23:11):
sit down. So is it Tim Grocer who's traveling all
over the world trying to.
Speaker 2 (23:17):
In terms of our ministers, it's Todd McLay and Winston Peters,
who I think pretty good at their job, and Tim
Grocer is yeah, I can't remember what his rollers. I
guess this is this is the part of the problem
used to be that.
Speaker 3 (23:31):
Yeah, yeah, it is. I see the problem is Greek.
We just don't know, and I don't know. I mean,
I'm not a politician, but I wouldn't back myself to
go and get an appointment was Trump as Prime Minister
of New Zealand. But b even if I got up
to get him to concentrate for very long about New
(23:54):
Zealand exceptionalism. That is, everybody else can have a tariff,
but not us. And I think every man in the
dog from European countries right through to the American ones
will be trying that on if they do anoun say,
and all of the podcasts and stuff that I read
suggest that Trump loves tariffs and always has done.
Speaker 2 (24:18):
Actually, it is interesting.
Speaker 3 (24:20):
I think we'd be lucky to be making and be
made an exceptional.
Speaker 2 (24:23):
Yeah, Greg, it's an interesting point you raised though about
the cost about how everything's connected. So if he does
successfully crack down on illegal immigrants and farms, a lot
of the farming produce and work there has been sort
of supported by cheap immigrant labor, it does I mean,
it's a complex scenario, isn't it. Because it also assumes
(24:43):
that he's going to be successful at trying to purge
a million or two million illegal immigrants from the USA,
and I'm predicting failure on that one because it's just
I think they're too embedded in American American culture. What
do you reckon, Greg.
Speaker 5 (24:59):
Well, I see most of the Democratic state governors and
are saying the Federals can come in. We're going to
defend these people to the very last, you know whatever,
and that's that's that happens.
Speaker 2 (25:13):
That's going to be terrible.
Speaker 5 (25:15):
But I'm thinking more so that the American agricultural industry
is going to find higher costs and producing what they're doing,
and we have this quality thing that's going on. But
at the end of the day, I mean, you look
at Alban Easy in Australia has already said to Trump,
you know, let's keep Orcus and all this sort of
(25:38):
stuff going on. So this is another dimension to my conversation.
What will Winston Peters do about being a supporter and
principle of aucas if it were to mean that we
could get a favorable trade deal.
Speaker 2 (25:52):
Yeah, okay, well, of course lots of things to plug
in there aren't there Martin. Thanks for call. Greg. Sorry,
did you have a comment there money? No, I didn't know. Yeah,
because we're almost getting into a little bit of politics
central there. I guess the thing about the tariffs which
make it, you know, that makes it. We're playing so
much guessing with this because there's an on the hustings
(26:16):
I'm gonna and we know Trump likes likes, Trump likes tariffs,
and he's talked about ten or twenty percent. But then again,
there's a reason America imports a lot of our beef.
It's because our beef is really good and they don't
create enough of it. So it doesn't make sense that
they would necessarily put a tariff on our beef because
(26:36):
it's just going to hurt the American consumer, as opposed
to if America was producing truckloads of beef, then there
might be an argument for tariffs so they can sell
more to their own consumers. But if they need ours,
why would they tariff it?
Speaker 3 (26:52):
Well, because they his comments were that there would be
a blenk tariff. And you know, they don't make enough
bananas for example, either or they don't make any does widgets,
and there'll be lots of things that There'll be lots
of countries and companies that will be going well, you
(27:13):
know that should apply to other people, but not not
to us. Whereas if he does this as a blanket,
everything that comes into the country has a ten or
twenty percent terrify not then that will be very hard
to get through. We have to really behave ourselves.
Speaker 2 (27:32):
I think paving ourselves make a difference. Look, we're going
another call will go to in just a moment, but
we will take a break. It's twenty three minutes to
Sex News Talks. He'd b yes, radio Gaga in a way,
(27:52):
we're a little bit Radio Gaga. This is the health
not the health of This is smart money with Martin Hawes.
I'm Tim Beverage. And because we're talking about that where
the markets might go under a Trump presidency, well, we
know we've got the Trump presidency. What's it going to
do to the share market? And where should you put
your money? Oh, eight hundred eighty ten eighty. I've got
some questions for Martin, but first let's go to Tony.
Speaker 4 (28:12):
Hello, Tim and Martin. Look a good question. At the
start of the program, Martin said that he had a
share that went up ten times you know, for this
original purchase price. But when would someone when would you
think about, actually, you know, in a situation like they're basically,
you know, over taking on shares that have gone up
(28:32):
a lot. One of the factors that would make you
basically think about sort of taking the money and not
so much running, but maybe sort of Well, I've been lucky.
I mean, you know, I've worked out well at this stage,
but at some time you know you're going to sort
of turn it into cash.
Speaker 3 (28:48):
Yeah, well, a really good question. My first of all,
I'm not managing my own money. One of the reasons
I don't manage my own money is that although I'm
not a bad buyer of investments, I'm not a terribly
good seller, and I tend to get to have an
emotional attached and don't sell. But the basic principle would
(29:10):
be you might look at selling something like an Nvidia
if something substantial, systemic, or something major had happened within
the company and its place in the market was no
longer the event, you might sell the whole lot. The
(29:32):
second thing to say is that as that sheer has
gone up, my managers have been what's called trimming it.
That is, they've been selling little bits of it, you know.
So for example, that might have started off as two
percent of my total portfolio. As it went up, it
(29:53):
turns into five percent. Now that's a fairly big slug
for just one security in the portfolio. So I would
my well, my managers, I keep talking about me doing this,
I don't know. My managers have been trimming that periodically.
As it's turned out. I wish they hadn't trimmed it.
It would be but it would be a big chunk.
(30:14):
Now it might be twenty percent of the portfolio now
if it hadn't been trimmed. But you are talking to
somebody who's not a work would sell up of shares.
My instinct isn't the sell No. I A I work
on a basis, or I used to work on a
basis that I would try to buy good businesses so
(30:35):
that I wasn't buying shears I was buying I was
actually buying a little bit of a business. I'd try
to get that at a fair price or better, and
then I don't trade. I tend to hold them for
very long term, long term. My basic thing was to
look at the big secular cycles and the really big
(30:55):
things that are going on in the world and trying
to play those from an investment point of view, the
obvious one of them and all that's different, guys, is
is something that I would be trying to play at
the moment.
Speaker 4 (31:10):
Right, So you wouldn't subscribe to the velocity of living
a bit in an next and moving it on where
you've basically done well, it's not a good idea. You've
basically sort of got a sort of maybe cheshire bit
to secure and then your initial investment and then sell
off little bits like your manager's doing book your sees,
is it right?
Speaker 3 (31:28):
Yes, I'm not if I was managing my own money.
I'm not going to sell out of a really good company.
So as a really well run company, it's doing stuff
that almost nobody else is doing it. It's got pricing power,
so it's pushing up the price of its silicon chips
(31:50):
more and more. So, Yeah, I don't mind selling a
little bit so it doesn't become too dominant within the portfolio.
But I'm not going to get right out of it.
Speaker 4 (32:00):
Okay, I've got thank.
Speaker 2 (32:04):
Actually you do it. I mean the question about when
to sell is you do a whole hour on that
really isn't it? Because and Hindsight's fabulous, isn't it.
Speaker 3 (32:16):
I love homesight. Yeah, you'd probably want somebody else on
the show rather than me if you're going to be
talking about selling, because I really, you know, it was
one of the things that I identified about myself that
I am a good buyer. I'm not a bad buyer,
but I'm a very poor seller.
Speaker 1 (32:34):
Is it?
Speaker 5 (32:35):
Just?
Speaker 2 (32:35):
Look, I know you don't like you're not going to
give specific financial advice, but just as a banterish sort
of question, I look at the tariff potentials, right, and
I look at one of the guy who's in the
tent with Trump, and that is Elon Musk. And my
(32:56):
gut tells me, probably wouldn't hurt to buy Tesla shares.
And then the other part of my gut says, well,
I get told that usually the market is wake quicker
than I'll ever be, and that's probably been priced in.
And I noticed that the share price for Tesla since
the fifth and November has gone up from two hundred
(33:16):
and two hundred and fifty bucks, sorry, two hundred and
forty dollars to three hundred and twenty already.
Speaker 3 (33:24):
Yeah, I was going to say I think it's up
twenty percent. So look, as a short term thing, you've
missed the boat. If it's right there, Tesla is going
to be able to ride a particular, particularly favorable wave,
and it'll be able to do that for ten years.
(33:45):
Then yes, it'll have ups and downs, but maybe you
should buy it because it it could be good at
it almost at any price. If it really does well,
I've no doubt that Musk will be doing his very
best to leave off the relationship piece. Now I've got
with the President elect of the United States. You know.
Speaker 2 (34:04):
The funny thing about the risk with that is is
that there are and this is based on history, is
that Trump has relationships which persist. But then he does
have relationships where people fall out with him. I mean
some of the people he put in his first administration,
he loved them, and all of a sudden he fell
out with him. My risk would be, my worry would
be that if Elon actually at some stage really I
(34:25):
don't know, and I don't suspect he is going to,
But if they have a clash of egos suddenly and
he falls out with Trump, then I don't know what
that would mean. But that's these are the sorts of
things that at play, aren't they if you're narrowing your
investment focus too much, and that's.
Speaker 3 (34:41):
Not the sort of thing I like an investment where
it can they hang hang on a personal relationship. Because
I think you're absolutely right. The chances have been falling
out at quite great Anthony Scaramucci last that I thought
six or seven days or something as a director of
(35:02):
communications in the White House.
Speaker 2 (35:04):
Oh that's right. That was a spectacularly short time and
entertaining at the time, wasn't it.
Speaker 3 (35:09):
Yes, yes, it was.
Speaker 2 (35:10):
What about people who are interested in in who think
I mean, again, I know it's not specific advice, but
say you decide you love tech stocks, and you think, look,
I actually really believe that the nvideos of this world
and other tech stocks. So I'm going to buy into
a fund that focuses on American tech stocks. And again
(35:31):
this is rule of thumb stuff, because everyone has their
own appetite for risk. But there'd be those who think
I'm going to stick everything I've got into American tech stocks.
Is that?
Speaker 3 (35:39):
No? No, I mean, I wouldn't do that. But what
I would do, perhaps is have a fund that owned
the S and P five hundred, which is the top
five hundred companies. Now that has the magnificence seven to
the top a dozen. Also companies of that or say
eight or ten companies are technology stocks. But then on
(36:00):
top of that, I might have ten percent of a
portfolio or something which isocus solely on technology, and also
to focus on technologies that are outside of AI, outside
of the likes of Amazon, Alphabet, Apple and so forth,
and looking at things like medical devices and possibly even
(36:24):
in spite of Trump, clean tech. Yeah, yeah, it may maybe,
especially if it was involved around the world, like I
would potentially and I don't know of one that exists,
but I would potentially by a company in New Zealand
that that solar you know, that was selling solar panels
(36:47):
or something within New Zealand. Now I don't know whether one.
I know that a lot of small providers, none of
them listed. I don't think that you can buy on
the share market, but you know, we you know we can.
We can start putting solar panels on our roofs. And
Trump is not going to care one way or the other.
Speaker 2 (37:05):
Well, the other thing is the world has an appetite
for clean technology, and if those companies in America producing.
It doesn't matter whether America wants to actually adopt all
those technologies, which I suspect it still will. The world
is still interested, so intuitively, it doesn't seem like it's
such a dog. No.
Speaker 3 (37:23):
And the companies in the US that are trying to
do direct carbon capture, for example, these are machines that
suck in the atmosphere, strip out the carbon, turn the
carbon into something solid like a big block, and dispose
of that thick a hole. Now there are a lot
of companies in the up not a lot, but there
(37:43):
are companies in the US working on that, and in
Switzerland and Finland. They will carry Yeah, yeah, it does.
They will carry on doing that. And Trump or no Trump,
but it won't matter because the price of carbon will
read the price of carbon probably who knows.
Speaker 2 (38:02):
That's fascinating probably Yeah. Okay, Well, we'll come back to
wrap up in just a moment. It is nine minutes
to six. This is news Talk, said b his news
talk said, be Tim beveridgeard my guest for Smart Money,
as Martin Hawes. Martin, Gosh, time flies it because we've
sort of it's been more of an easy banter today
because there is so much uncertainty about what's what America
(38:22):
is going to do when it comes to tariffs and
all that. Can I run past you so you you
you've made the comment that Trump is he likes tariffs,
and he does like them broadly speaking, whereas we had
Morris Williamson on and who did make the comment that
he thinks that for a bunch of reasons, that it
(38:42):
might not be the smartest thing to be his blanket
with the tariffs and everything. He sort of thinks that
there's a lot of bluster and that basically, look, we
should just have a cup of tea and lie down
and we'll it'll be fine. It won't be as bad.
Does that inform your opinion at all?
Speaker 3 (38:58):
No, it's exactly my opinion really right at the top
of the show that we just don't know that, you know,
I mean, he's so mercurial that but I think there's
a reasonable chance we will see not so much tariffs.
I think there's almost a certainty that we'll see tariffs
(39:20):
on going. I mean there's been quite big tariffs under
under Biden, Yes, but that we might see there's there's
a chance at least that we will see blanket tariffs,
that is, every article that comes into the US as
subject to a tariff. And I mean Morross Williams highly experiences.
(39:42):
Now the Minister of the Crown, he's a Minister of
Trade or something like that, customers as well, something like that.
He will know a lot about this. But we're all
showing a dart at a dart board and the fund
the mass because we just don't know him.
Speaker 2 (40:01):
It's quite a fit. It's been interesting to bander about it,
and also just a few ideas about tech stocks and
what it's going to do. And even can make their
own decisions, but it's always good to get good advice.
And usually a good fund manager will do way better
of managing your shares than you will. Isn't that right?
Speaker 3 (40:17):
Generally? I'm certainly finding I'm certainly finding that for myself
because no longer imagining my money, I've handed my money
over to others. And I think it hur's to say it,
but I think they they are doing better than I
was doing. I was doing okay, but I was only
doing it.
Speaker 2 (40:34):
I don't mean you, I meant me probably no. Hey,
And the good thing is, look if they don't buy
quite as much as bad beef. Maybe we'll be able
to get some of the good stuff because I was
told by meat exporters like, oh, I know, all the
good stuff goes overseas, so maybe anyway, hey man, thanks,
thanks so much mate for your time. Really appreciate it.
Thanks Jerry, and thanks my producer, Tyre Roberts. So check
(40:55):
out the podcast week and collect them on iut Radio
and Sunday at six is next.
Speaker 1 (41:00):
For more from the Weekend Collective, listen live to news
Talks it'd be weekends from three pm, or follow the
podcast on iHeartRadio.
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