April 4, 2025 • 39 mins
Jamie Mackay talks to David Seymour, Dr Jacqueline Rowarth, Ben Picton, Jane Smith, and Todd McClay.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The best of the country with Rabobank. Choose the bank
with one hundred and twenty years global agribusiness experience. Grow
with Rabobank.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
Good Morning New Zealand. I'm Jamie McKay. This is the
best of the country. Each and every Saturday morning here
on News Talks edby we play the best bits of
our weekday show twelve to one and it's brought to
you by Rabobank. We're growing a better New Zealand together. Well,
this week's been all about the world and Liberation Day,
Trump and as tariffs. But on Monday Show, before we
(00:44):
got into that, I chatted to David Seymour, Act Party
leaders soon to be Deputy PM, and I asked him
if the current Deputy PM, none other than Winston, has
cut us lunch when it comes to the war on woken,
pulling out of the Paris Accord and has he gone
soft on the supermarkets. Doctor Jacqueline Roweath, leading primary sector
academic and columnist, talking about young farmers and old farmers
(01:06):
and what she got up to at Messi University in
the seventies being picked in Rabobank's senior strategist. That means
like a chief economist discussing the latest on the us
A tariffs when they were announced. As I said Thursday
Our Time, Jane Smith North Otago Farmer Award winning environmentalist,
you never die wondering what she's thinking. And on Friday Show,
(01:29):
yesterday's show, we got Trade Minister Todd McLay to unpack
Liberation Day. Its all on the best of the country.
Speaker 1 (01:46):
The best of the country with Rabobank. Choose the bank
with a huge network of progressive farming clients.
Speaker 2 (01:53):
Rabobank fortnightly here on the Country. Act Party leaders soon
to be Deputy PM David Seymour joints it's all about
the Paris Accord and supermarkets this week. Have you, David
Seymour had to reign in your enthusiastic Egg spokesperson Mark
Cameron and some of his rhetoric around pulling out of
(02:13):
the Paris Accord.
Speaker 3 (02:15):
No, because Mark's the kind of guy that people want
as a representative. He hears them and he speaks for them.
That's why I call them the authentic voice of rural
New Zealand. Mark is somebody who I think speaks his
mind very well and if you listen to what he's saying,
that the basic position is becoming orthodox around the world. Sure,
(02:39):
everybody signed up to the par of climent accord, but
not everyone's following it, and at some point a country
late New Zealand does have to decide if the costs
of being in are greater than the costs or the
penalties of pulling out. Now, I would say that at
the moment, the consequences of market access if we were
(02:59):
to leave, probably greater than the costs of staying in,
but that calculus may shift as the rest of the
world recalculates. And I think the opportunity in the meantime
that Andrew Hogard and Mark Cameron have suggested to me
is that New Zealand should be looking to form an
alliance with like minded countries such as Uruguay, a lot
(03:20):
of South America, a lot of rice growers in Asia
who are exposed on methane emissions, to get a better
deal for methane around the world, get methane's true scientific
characteristics better accepted. And that's in part why our government,
at the behest of act, I might add, has done
(03:41):
a new investigation into the split gas approach. So we've
actually got sensible government policy to take to the.
Speaker 2 (03:47):
World has Winston Peters, David Seymour cut your lunch. When
it comes to the war on work, He's made no
bones about it. He says, why are we making a
rod for our own backs? Being part of the paris
are called wishing our farmers and our taxpayers and our
economy when China or the US could sneeze and produce
more CO two overnight than we do in a year.
(04:08):
Does he have a point?
Speaker 3 (04:11):
Well, I have to agree, because I think that's been
saying it for a bit longer and a bit more clearly,
So yes, I guess I'd have to agree he does.
Speaker 2 (04:23):
I note that Winston was also sent out an email.
The irony of it is he sent one to one
of our staff members, who would be fair to say
is more center left than center right, and he was
asking her for some money to continue his war on woke.
Is the act party doing likewise?
Speaker 3 (04:41):
I think at some point people actually want New Zealand
to work and fit together, and you've got to be
able to articulate what you stand for and act as
a party. We believe that each person should be treated
with equal dignity, and that if you want to talk
about things like kindness. It's not about dividing people into
(05:03):
identities and chastising people that don't genuflex to the right
minority group on the right day. It's actually about recognizing
that New Zealand can only succeed when each person flourishes
in their own way. And all you need to do
is some basic rules of treating other people more kindly.
(05:24):
So you know, you can have a war on woke
if you like. But I think at some point you
need to ask yourself how is it all supposed to work?
And I think treating people with basic dignity and respect
so they d.
Speaker 2 (05:41):
Channeling you're channeling your Justinda there kindness.
Speaker 3 (05:47):
No, I don't think that we should allow her to
own the word kindness. I think it's actually something that
all of us try to practice as we go through life.
It's not She doesn't own it, and frankly, she didn't
do a very good job of it. She was always
ready to whack a minority group, whether it was licensed fire,
(06:07):
our owners, farmers, landlords, small business owners. You know, they
all got picked on and pulled down at some point.
X messages that if you really believe in treating people well,
then yeah, you need to not discriminate on people's characteristics.
You need to take people as you find them and
look for the best in people. If we all do that,
I think there's no limit to David the problems were
(06:29):
solving it.
Speaker 2 (06:30):
You're getting you're getting soft in your old age. Have
you gone soft on the supermarkets?
Speaker 3 (06:36):
Well, I mean I look at the basic proposition the
government signed up to ask the rest of the world,
why aren't you here? That's something that I campaigned on.
I must have said that in one hundred town hauls
up and down the country and opposition. I'd actually tell
the supermarket executives from the top ten in the world,
We'll give you an all expenses paid weekend in Queenstown,
(06:58):
but while you're here, tell us why you're invest and
that is roughly without the weekend in Cleanstown. What Nicola
is proposing to do with them. I think that's very positive.
There's also speculation about breaking up businesses and so on.
I just take a couple of points about that. The
first is that you caring on for what I said before.
(07:21):
I don't think it helps to have a bunch of
people that we make the demons and blame for all
our problems. That that's not going to get New Zealand
to a place we need to be. We actually need
to unleash more people's creativity and push up success more,
not not drag people down, just as labor did with
all those groups I mentioned. You know, we don't want
(07:42):
our government to have an oil and gas moment. And
the second thing is following on from that. You know,
we actually want people from around the world to see
New Zealand there's a great place to do business and
invest and if they believe that, you know, if they
do a bit too well, they'll face the wrath of
the government with out any notice, a little bit like
(08:02):
how oil and guess Scott shut down without notice. Then
we're actually going to get less of the investment we
need and that's not ultimately good for anyone.
Speaker 2 (08:10):
No, neither are giopolies. David Seymour, thank you very much
for your time. Appreciate it.
Speaker 3 (08:15):
Hey, thank you very much. Hope you have a great day.
And how many radio stations are there in New Zealand. Now,
I think that's almost a monopoly, isn't it.
Speaker 2 (08:23):
Well, good luck with that, David Seymour. I think the
difference between the media companies and the supermarkets at the moment,
and the banks, I'll throw them in there as well.
Is that the media companies aren't making a fortune. Good
luck anyone else trying to enter that industry got to go.
Thanks for your time.
Speaker 3 (08:38):
I got to tell you that the products are selling
are a bit tastier than what half the media is covering.
You know. Let's see if the media covers certain stories
this week.
Speaker 2 (08:48):
All right, you mean school lunches gotta go?
Speaker 3 (08:50):
Bye bye.
Speaker 2 (08:55):
David Seymour on Monday Show, Good Morning, my name's Jamie McKay.
This is the best of the country. It's brought to
you by Rabobank. Also on Monday Show, Dr Jacqueline Rowath
leading primary sect their academic talking about old farmers and
new ones, young ones, Young Farmer of the Year final,
Regional Final. Does that make sense? Yes, it's on in
(09:15):
Southland today, the Big Grand Final also coming up in
Southland in early July. Also Ben picked in Rabobank senior
strategists out of Rabobank's Sydney office talking about those Trump
tariffs and of course we've got an OCR decision coming
up on Wednesday, and before the end of the hour,
Jane Smith Todd McLay Trade Minister. It's all on the
(09:37):
Best of the Country, brought to you by Rabobank.
Speaker 1 (09:45):
The best of the Country with Rabobank, the bank with
local acribanking experts passionate about the future of rural communities Rabobank.
Speaker 2 (09:54):
She writes an excellent column on our website The Country
dot co dot nz. This one is about young farmers,
but doctor Jack will and Roweth, you also want to
talk about old farmers. Not that you're old, of course,
but you did have a reunion of your messy egg
science class of nineteen seventy seven. How did it go?
Speaker 4 (10:17):
It was lovely seventy seven we started eighty one. Most
of us graduated, but not all. You know, there's a
bit of plus or minus and some time off in between.
But it was just a lovely time to catch up
with people and talking about the fact that having had
four years or was it three depending in class gave
us the most extraordinary network. And I feel quite sad
(10:40):
that the online generation will never have that, and of
course they don't know what they've missed, but the ability
to ring people or be wrung for information or advice
or just talking, you know, life in general. What do
I do with the kids now. It's been important over
those almost fifty years, very important.
Speaker 2 (11:03):
Well, having a conversation, are you the most famous alumni?
Speaker 4 (11:08):
Good heavens, there are lots of people who have done
lots of good things, including because they've had an entrepreneurial
bent made good money. There are people who have been
superb farming and setting up new ventures and doing new
things that set the example for the region. So lots
and lots of activities of different types or on the
(11:30):
basis of the agricultural science degree, we've got engineers, We've
got people who carve or rock blast or Kevin Kilsby
he wasn't there, but he's one of the classmates and
he does that wonderful pottery with the putaco and mad
eyes up in Auckland. Lots and lots of different activities,
all making New Zealand a better place.
Speaker 2 (11:51):
Were they crazy hazy days? Jaquelin? Did you spend most
of your time at lots of students, pub and a
parmy called fitzerber is it?
Speaker 4 (12:00):
I wouldn't dream of commenting, No, I didn't.
Speaker 2 (12:02):
Did you Inhale, Jacqueline? Did you Inhale?
Speaker 4 (12:07):
I wasn't offered anything and I'm quite happy to be
keeping it that way.
Speaker 2 (12:11):
Okay, let's talk about young farmers. On the weekend we
had the ara Angi final sixth out of seven Gareth
mccirtchhere getting home there. We've got the Otago Southland Regional
Final on Saturday, and then we're going back to Southland
in July for the Grand Final. Going to be brilliant.
But in your column you've alluded to the fact that
we need to encourage and aid young people into farms.
(12:34):
When I was a young farmer, Jacqueline, we were aided
by the fact that the Rural Bank would give you
a special settlement loan if you owed them enough money.
But it got you a start. That avenue is no
longer available and.
Speaker 4 (12:47):
We need to be thinking about it again. So I'm
encouraged by the fact that ASB are doing something with
the dairy innovation that dairy Industry awards they've announced in
some cases with Santera and others, not the one percent loan,
and I think that there should be more of this
sort of thing discussed. And of course lots of people
will then ring you up, sorry Jomie, and say we're
(13:10):
doing it as well. But the point is we're getting
behind the eight ball here and we don't want that.
In New Zealand weightfully at the cutting edge. Other countries
that EU in particular, are putting in all sorts of
loans to get the young on farm. And one of
the things we discussed in Napier at the weekend with
old farmers is how we're assisting children or indeed others
(13:33):
through equity partnerships to become farmers of the future and
do the good things that my classmates have.
Speaker 2 (13:40):
Done now, Jack Well, and back in the late seventies
when you weren't inhaling at Messi University, we did have,
sorry to keep going on about that, we did have
land corpse, predecessor lands and Survey and they used to
help young farmers onto farms with ballot blocks. Are you
suggesting we go back to that.
Speaker 4 (13:59):
No, I think it would be, Johnny difficult unless we
sought out the interest rates because the ballot blocks they
were actually some of them were pretty shown pretty difficult
to develop, and that's where some of our landslips have
come from. So now I think we should be looking
at the land we've got already in production and thinking
about how older farmers might like to assist perhaps with
(14:20):
the bank assistance as well, or maybe some paths relief.
That's what Ireland's doing and a good effect to allow
good equity partnerships and allow these shoulders and the breadth
of experience to be passed to the next generation. So
otherwise we've got all going to be in a muddle
of out food production.
Speaker 2 (14:40):
Back in nineteen seventy seven, Jequel and they also had
the Young Farmer of the Year Grand Final televised live
on TV one. We should be bringing that back.
Speaker 4 (14:51):
I love it, just it would be absolutely superb if
we could do that and company calendar. We know it's
an icon on Sunday night. Well let's go back to
having some of these specials on Saturdays. And in fact
they do it for rugby. Could we not do it
for farming? Sure?
Speaker 2 (15:09):
No, no, I've just found this in the studio here
as we speak live. I'll give you one hundred dollars
Jacqueline to the charity of your choice if you can
name the nineteen seventy seven Young Farmer of the Year.
Speaker 3 (15:22):
An I'm sorry no either.
Speaker 2 (15:24):
Could I but it was a bloke by the name
of Keith Holmes, and I know in nineteen eighty a.
Speaker 4 (15:30):
Guy from down well I shouldn't known.
Speaker 2 (15:33):
Well, there you go, you've just lost one hundred dollars
for the charity of your choice. James Watt who came
from my neck of the woods down in south and
he won it in nineteen eighty. So there's some real
talk about alumni. There's some great names here that have
come through the young farmer's real industry leaders.
Speaker 4 (15:49):
Yeah, Warwick Chattos and think about Murray Turley was third
I think in the Grand finals from the great term
Tamoka district and he's a great leader in agriculture. But
also think about John mccaur who's now Federal de Farmer's
growing working there in the Canterbury district. There'll be some
terrific ones, lovely lovely lad some latters. Of course, we
(16:12):
can remember Emma so doing good work and continuing to
do so. So let's all vote and it would take
more than one hundred dollars to get it back on
Saturday night, but Saturday Night Lives would be great.
Speaker 2 (16:24):
Well, there we go, doctor jackl and Raah, thank you
very much for your time, see you later.
Speaker 1 (16:28):
Thanks by the best of the country with robobk choose
the bank with one hundred and twenty years global agribusiness
experience grow with rubbobk it.
Speaker 2 (16:37):
Is liberation day. Let's get some commentary on Trump's tariffs.
Our expert in the field, or one of them is
being picked and he's a senior strata just effectively. The
chief economist for Rabobank based out of Sydney Elbow, Your
Prime Minister, Anthony Alberanisi said it was not the act
of a friend, but being picked in that ten percent.
(16:59):
Did Australia and New Zealand get off lightly good?
Speaker 5 (17:02):
Jamie? Yeah, I think it's fair to say that Australia
and New Zealand have come out comparatively well in this
round of reciprocal tariffs. So if we look through the
lift of some of the numbers applied to other countries
that are quite a bit higher than the ten percent
that New Zealand and Australia are facing, for Cambodia at
forty nine percent, Sri Lanka at forty four, Bangledes thirty seven,
(17:26):
China thirty four, Indonesia thirty two, So ten percent looks
okay in the context.
Speaker 2 (17:32):
Yeah, not to mention Japan at twenty four percent, India
twenty six, the EU at twenty Yet the UK ben
picked and got away with ten percent like US.
Speaker 5 (17:44):
Yeah, that's right. So it's interesting looking not just at
the tariffs that the US is imposing on other countries,
but also at the numbers that the US calculated as
the equivalent tariff rate that the United States faces when
exporting into these other markets. And something that stuck out
to me is that they face trade barriers of about
(18:07):
ten percent tariff equivalent for Australia, but for New Zealand
they calculate that figure at about twenty percent. So maybe
if there's another shoe to drop in the trade war,
at some point, New Zealand might be a little bit
more exposed than what Australia.
Speaker 2 (18:22):
Stephen Jacobe, a trade expert here in New Zealand. I'm
sure you're well aware of him. He said, unjustified, painful,
but at a lower level of pain than expected. And
as I said, Albanizi, your guys said, not the act
of a friend. We send nine billion dollars worth of
goods to the US. They're our second biggest trading partner,
twelve percent of exports by value, who ultimately bears the
(18:47):
cost of this is it US as the exporter or
the Americans as the end consumer.
Speaker 5 (18:54):
Yeah, so there's going to be a bit of a
mix between the two, but ultimately the end consumer will
pay more of the cost of the tarsfts than what
the exporting nations will. So what we would expect to
see is slightly lower prices for some of the things
that we're exporting to the United States. And beef really
sticks out as the number one export for both New
Zealand and Australia going to the USA. But the USA
(19:18):
can't supply its own consumption needs with beef produced inside
the USA. So what's going to happen in the short
term at least is higher prices for US consumers. So
most of the cost of these tasks will actually be
born by US citizens.
Speaker 2 (19:35):
Why did Trump call out Australian beef in particular, because
our Australian correspondent, Chris Russell is coming up on the
show shortly texted me earlier this morning and said, maybe
Australia is a bit guilty of using biosecurity as a
bit of a shield and the Americans are none too
happy about it.
Speaker 5 (19:54):
Yeah, so this is something that the USA has been
complaining about for years and years that Australia imposes non
tariff barriers through our biosecurity measures. So we restricts fresh food,
particularly from coming into the Australian market. So we don't
allow us beef, we don't allow apples and pears, we
(20:17):
don't allow fresh pork products, and we don't allow fresh
poultry products either because of biosecurity reasons. But there are
questions around the validity of some of the biosecurity concerns
that have been raised by the United States Trade representative
over many years. They haven't been happy about it. So
(20:39):
there is a little bit of a sense on the
American side that some of these biosecurity laws are sort
of shadow tariffs that have been imposed by Australia.
Speaker 2 (20:49):
Wall Street obviously not trading at the moment it's evening
or nighttime in the US. The Australian and New Zealand
share markets didn't like it. I think Wall Street futures
trading was down two percent. It looks like the world
economy doesn't like this at all.
Speaker 5 (21:05):
Yeah, well that's the that's the financial economy. So Donald
Trump has been pretty clear that he's he's putting these
in place for US manufacturers and farmers, not for the
US bankers and hedge funds. So that's probably not the
constituency that he's trying to keep happy with these sorts
of measures. We've we've had it very very good for
(21:26):
about forty years through increased trade liberalization and financialization in
the financial markets, and the shoe might be on the
other foot at the moment.
Speaker 2 (21:36):
So being picked in with US senior stratages for Rabo
Bank out of Sydney ben ocr next Wednesday, what are
you picking?
Speaker 5 (21:44):
Yeah, well, we think the RBNZ is going to cut again,
but the cut won't be as big as what we've
had recently. So we're expecting point two five percentage points
next week and we think we'll get one more of
those in as well.
Speaker 2 (22:00):
What about Trump with the tariffs and the inflation that's
going to cause around the world, Will that upset the
apple card?
Speaker 5 (22:07):
Yeah, well, it's definitely going to have an effect. So
we think that the tariffs are inflationary in the United
States because they're increasing the prices of all the imported goods,
but probably disinflationary to some extent for other countries around
the world because they won't be able to sell that
product into the United States or not as easily as
(22:30):
they previously could, and therefore they're probably going to discount
goods and dump them into other markets. So that might
mean that we get some cheap product being dumped into
the New Zealand market.
Speaker 6 (22:40):
In the short term.
Speaker 5 (22:41):
That's probably short term disinflationary, So there's different effects in
different countries. Over the long run. Kind of what's happening
is we're emphasizing production inside national borders rather than emphasizing
international efficiency. Comparative advance globalization is maybe seeing the tide
(23:03):
go out a little bit, and over the longer run
that's probably bad news for the supply side of the
economy and points to structurally higher inflation in the future.
Speaker 2 (23:13):
Ben Pickton from Rabobank, thanks for your time today on
the country.
Speaker 5 (23:17):
Cheers, Damie, appreciate it.
Speaker 1 (23:19):
The best of the country with Rabobank. Choose the bank
with a huge network of progressive farming clients.
Speaker 2 (23:25):
Rabobank, Good morning, New Zealand. I'm Jamie McKay. This is
the best of the Country, brought to you by Rabobank.
We're growing a better New Zealand together. Music today from
the Communeads, one of my favorite eighties remakes up next
(23:45):
on the Best of the Country North Otago farmer and
former winner of the Balanced Farm Environment Awards, which are
on as we speak, Jane Smith. You never die wondering
what she's thinking. Todd McClay, Minister of Agriculture and Trade,
caught up with them on yesterday's show What do these
Trump tariffs mean for New Zealand farmers? Talking about Rabobank.
Applications for the Rabobank Executive Development Program are now open now.
(24:10):
This is uniquely designed for farm owners or senior managers.
This program will provide successful applicants with the skills and
knowledge to advance their businesses. Go to the website rabobank
dot co dot nz Applications clothes on April fifteenth now,
Surfing for Farmers is wrapping up right around the country.
(24:31):
It's getting a wee bit chillier, although we have had
some warm weather as well. So Rabobank, major sponsor of
Surfing for Farmers, gave away twenty five surfboards to every
location in New Zealand where they had Surfing for Farmers.
The competition saw are surfboards awarded to at least one
lucky participant at each of those twenty five locations I mentioned.
(24:53):
They were announced by rabobank staff during late February and March.
To find out more about Surfing for farm and that's
rabobank Executive Development program, go to the website rabobank dot
co dot nz. Up next, Jane Smith, You're going to.
Speaker 3 (25:08):
Love her.
Speaker 1 (25:13):
The best of the country with Rabobank, the bank with
local agribanking experts, passionate about the future of rural communities, Rabobank.
Speaker 2 (25:21):
Althotago farmer and a woman of many talents. Yesterday she
was seaman testing balls. Today she's going to talk to
us about Donald Trump's tariffs from a farmer's point of
view from the coal face. Jane Smith, Good afternoon.
Speaker 7 (25:36):
Good afternoon, Jamie. Hopefully not going to sort of draw
a light you line between the two being similar or something.
I'm not sure, But now it's been a fascinating twenty
four hours, hasn't it really? In terms of trade and
as you know, Jamie, there's no winners in a trade war.
And I guess the question is one who will pay
for this in terms of the direct costs into the
USA and whether we pay a price in terms of demand.
(25:58):
But either way it's going to be what we will be,
probably nine hundred million dollars. So I think, you know,
from New Zealand's point of view, we need to keep
a calm head on us. It looks like we have.
There could be an upside, you know. I think it
means that we will become hopefully more crystal clear about
what we produce and how we do it, and hopefully
leads to a few conversations about, you know, some of
the unnecessary burdens that we put on our producers on
(26:19):
that produce red meat and milk before it even leaves
our shores, so higher and higher cost of production, you know,
wasting money on overly intrusive audits, et cetera. It might
mean we have a conversation now about ge do we
or do we not? Because it's sort of sort of
slipped through the cracks that sort of seems a given
that we're going to be doing it, But actually is
that a way to DIFFERENTI our product even more to
(26:40):
continue to be gu free. And I guess we know
that they need our lean hamburger meat. And once the
Yanks start paying more for their what is it, fifty
billion burgers, they eat a year. That's something like three
per person per week, Jmie. So you know that may
things might change once they become you know, realized the
rubber HiT's the road. And it's been really interesting to
(27:02):
see some speculation coming out of Australia this morning that
the Aussies are about to make a move on the
trade chess board by opening its doors to US beef,
so reciprocal importation type scenario worth beef. That hasn't happened
since I guess the BC and when was at two
thousand and three. So that is quite interesting in terms
(27:22):
of that and I'm not suggesting we should be doing
that at all, but I'm suggesting that one that is
quite strange. But also it might mean some other doors
open up for us. But never has there been a
time that we should be you know, we should be
more bolder and rather than the semi sort of passive
approach that we're known for sometimes, you know, I know,
my Indian colleague on their global farm around table often says,
(27:45):
you know, you've got all the opportunity in the world,
all of the resources, but you are a very weak
seller in the world. New Zealand we tend to go
to the world with cap in hand saying please, sirve,
will you buy some more, when actually we should be
more focused like this ree does and say actually we've
got a damn fine product. We'll pay a damn fine
price for it. Let's talk. So yeah, I just think
(28:07):
it's it might just open up a bit of clarity
instead of actually, I guess punishing ourselves within before the
meat even leaves the country. Actually, let's just be really
clear on what we're doing and what actually does make
our product different, Jamie.
Speaker 2 (28:20):
Earlier in the week we spoke to David Seymour about
pulling out of the Powers accord. And I know you're
a bit of a poster girl for ground Swell, Jane Smith,
so you're all for it.
Speaker 7 (28:31):
Yeah, Well again, Jamie, the whole methane conversation has never
really happened. I mean the end of the day, and
you know this, and we all know this. Unfortunately, our
industry has painted ourselves into some sort of sacrificial corner.
And we all know that methane, if it is steady
or decreasing, it is not adding to warming. So that
fact seems to have been markedly missed out. And what
(28:53):
have we done we've actually doubled down and put more
money wasted, more's tax pay money. I think there's another
four hundred million dollars in the in the pipeline to
be used on metha mitigation, which just seems fascical when
you think that could have gone into real research. Jamie
and I guess on that. In terms of real research,
I had a fascinating evening that we went to a
(29:15):
couple of weeks ago was Balance Agranutrients. And you know,
in terms of real research on a real problem, Warwick
Cato and as Agg research team has developed an amazing
product that is going to be potentially significantly reduced pasta
lava on pasta so l three lave as you know,
as ninety percent of the problem, what do we do?
(29:36):
We only dose the ten percent of the problem and
the animal and waste. I think it's three hundred million
dollars doing that. So you know, that's real research or
the real research and healthcare, et cetera. But we again,
we tend to sort of take the passive approach of
we must do more to be global heroes. Well, actually,
let's just be really productive, really efficient and do really
really good environmental things. Shaming. Not this this sort of
(29:58):
the chasing rainbow, et cetera, which is all that we're
doing by pandering to the paris called Jamie.
Speaker 2 (30:03):
Just finally, how are things on the North Otago farm.
Speaker 7 (30:07):
Well, I'm standing out in the paddock at the moment, Jamie.
And usually autumn is the time that really nails us.
Usually we don't have an autumn. We don't have an
opportunity for at autumn flush or anything like that. And
I'm a little bit sheepish if you like to say
that we've had I think we've had one hundred and
ninety mils for the year, which is unbelievable. And again
I feel guilty saying that for all of those dry areas,
(30:27):
and we have got with having an autumn, and we've
got twenty four degrees here today, and yeah, so I guess,
you know, it is nice for most of the East
Coast actually have a bit of a good autumn for once, Jamie.
We will take it. But again I just sort of
feel a bit guilty about it. But yeah, onwards and upwards,
I guess for a good autumn going into winter, Jamie.
Speaker 2 (30:49):
Jane Smith, thanks for your time. I'm always appreciated on
the country.
Speaker 1 (30:52):
Thanks Jamy, the best of the country with rubbo back.
Choose the bank with one hundred and twenty years global
agribusiness experience. Grow with rubber bag.
Speaker 2 (31:01):
Tord McLay is the Minister of Agriculture and Trade. He's
had one day to unpack and digest Liberation Day. Todd,
let's cut to the chase here. What is this going
to mean for New Zealand farmers.
Speaker 3 (31:13):
Well, it is for.
Speaker 6 (31:14):
Much of what we sell into that market, Jamie, ten
percent more on the tariffs are already playing so quite tougher.
Butter for beef, it's just slightly more than ten percent
will be the tariff rate. Tariffs are not good for
New Zealand, so that's concerning. However, we are no less
competitive against other exporters in that market because everybody in
the world is facing an additional ten percent, and many
countries as many as forty their tariff rates are much
(31:37):
much higher than that. So what I'm starting to hear
from our exporters is they are looking at the detail
of it is, although they're going to have to find
ways to meet that ten percent extra cost, some of
which will be passed on or a lot will be
passed on to US consumers. They are seeing there could
be opportunities and some products in there to sell more ironically,
(31:57):
and so we're going to continue to look at what
it means to get more information. Over the next day
or so, as you know, the US Administration starts releasing
more detail of yesterday's speech and announcement.
Speaker 2 (32:09):
On the face of it, Okay, we've got nine billion
dollars worth of trade from New Zealand to the US.
That equates to obviously a nine hundred million dollar tariff.
I think we can live with that, Todd. But what
about the collateral damage to some of our biggest trading
partners China, the EU.
Speaker 6 (32:27):
Yeah, yeah, that's right. It's going to be quite tough
for them. I'll cover that in a moment. Just on
that nine hundred billion dollars. Yes, that's just an up
and down figure of ten percent of nine billion dollars
worth of exports. But I think a lot of that
is going to be taken up by the US consumers.
Think about the beef we sell in that it's a
very important beef market for US. Two things happen. We
sell very high end beef into restaurants and a lot
(32:49):
more as ground that goes into the hamburgers. You know,
if you go to a restaurant in New York and
you get one hundred dollars steak meal and it's New
Zealand beef in that restaurant, you know, beef might be
fifty dollars. Ten percent of that your meal is going
to be one hundred and five dollars. That is going
to get passed on. So it's going to be inflationary.
And I would be worried if others had a lower
(33:10):
tariff rate than us, but they don't. It's the same.
And by the way, Australia is not selling any beef
at the moment because you've put a restriction on that.
And so you know, there is going to be opportunities
there for us in those markets, but it's going to
be a bit harder work and challenging. Jamie, you mentioned
the other places, the EU and China. I expect we're
going to see tariff escalation and retaliation from there. That
(33:32):
is concerning for us. We won't get caught in that,
but it's going to have an impact upon their markets.
You know, will there be a slowdown in their economies?
You know, will there be uncertainty, consumers may step back
a little bit. But incidentally, with beef again, China has
already had tariffs put in place against America. They're not
importing American beef at the moment, I'm told and anecdotally
(33:55):
some of our beef exports to China are telling me
they're getting calls from their customers wanting more beef at
the moment because Chinese consumers still want the steak in
the restaurant or on the supermarket shell, so they're going
to look elsewhere in the world. If there is a
big fight brewing with the US and US not selling
products anywhere.
Speaker 2 (34:13):
Have you had any luck getting to the bottom of
the supposed twenty percent tariff we impose on the US,
Todd McLay.
Speaker 6 (34:21):
It's wrong. We don't, so that is a mistake. Although
I see over night. I woke up this morning with
reports coming to me out of Washington from our embassy
that the US is clarified. What they've done is that
that's a trade deficit. What they've done is they've said, you,
we buy from you twenty percent more than we sell you. Therefore,
we've decided that's a tariff, which is not the New
(34:43):
Zealand tariff rate on average for US products into New
Zealand is one point nine percent, and in the other
direction the average for US and to the US is
about two point two percent. Now, arguably, I suppose Jamie
is if the President had put that up. You know
that the New Zealand tariff rates are lower than the
US terraff than the US tariff rates we're going to
(35:04):
ten percent. It didn't look good. They're talking about a
trade deficit and that will change because we're going to
be buying things from them soon. You know, the New
Zealand needs more airplanes in New Zealand world that goes
around there are much of the time we buy more
than we sell at the moment the other way around.
My officials over the night have reached out and been
in contact with the USTR, the Trade office there to
(35:27):
say it's wrong, and I will be writing to my
account about Ambassador Degree respectfully to saying actually, this is
what the tariff rates are. It's not twenty percent, you're
all mate.
Speaker 2 (35:36):
Winston Peter's final question here on yesterday's show said it
was a victorious stay in New Zealand with there just
as well as any country on Earth. But let's face
Todd McLay, anything that doesn't free up trade or makes
trade more difficult or more regulated, is not good for
a free trading nation.
Speaker 6 (35:54):
Yeah, that's right. Well, Winston's correct though, because we are
the same as we're better than most countries the world,
and so actually, you know, our exporters are in a
better position. But he agrees, and I've talked to you know,
he and I'd be talking about this a lot over
the previous week. Anywhere tariff's are put in place doesn't
work for New Zealand and it's not good for us. However,
one last thing I wanted to say, Jamie, to give
(36:16):
you an example. Tariff rates and themselves are not bad
unless they're only against you. So if you take the
Indian market as an example, New Zealand wine exporters face
AE hundred and fifty percent tariff rate. Australia, through their agreement,
has a seventy five percent teriff rate. Now seventy five
percent is still far too high for freedom of trade,
but they're selling a lot more Australian wine up there
(36:38):
than New Zealand wine because it's seventy five percent cheaper
than Oursers and so in itself that we are at
ten percent across the board and others are the same
or higher. Our exporters in the US market are no
less competitive. In fact against the Europeans, you know, we
are ten percent more competitive and others a lot more
than that. And so I back you know, experts who
(37:00):
are nimble and good at what they do to continue
to do well in the US market as they also
look around the world for more opportunities, and they'll keep
selling high quality, safe food that's in a farmer's produced
and they'll keep getting a good return for it.
Speaker 2 (37:12):
Every cloud has a silver lining. Todd McLay, Minister of Trade.
Good luck. You're going to earn your keep over the
next few months.
Speaker 3 (37:19):
Thank you so much.
Speaker 6 (37:20):
We're going to keep working away at it.
Speaker 1 (37:23):
The best of the country with Rabobank. Choose the bank
with a huge network of progressive farming clients.
Speaker 2 (37:29):
Rabobank, Minister of Agriculture and Trade. Todd McLay wrapping the
best of the country. Good morning. My name's Jamie McKay.
Each and every Saturday morning here on ZB the show's
brought to you by Rabobank. We're growing a better New
Zealand together can Boden Barrett bring the Blues back from
(37:51):
the brink. It's a lot of bees, isn't it tonight?
I hope so for the blues sake, And of course
my Highlanders are over in Perth. After that, Can Ethan
de Groot fix the Highland of scrum all be revealed tonight?
As I said at the beginning of the show, this
is the Commune ads Jimmy Somerville, Sarah Jane Morris, great
old video from the eighties. I thought i'd take you
(38:13):
out with that one today just because I can catch
them back the same time, same place next Saturday morning.
Speaker 8 (39:00):
Just words. I'm sure y'all k no make queer. I'm honestly,
(39:21):
it's just I'm like you. I'm going down this fut
it myself.
Speaker 3 (39:31):
I can sing, I'm.
Speaker 8 (39:35):
Going down. Don't know, y'all, go but that that break.
Don't get tip, don't get ta, don't get to
The best of the country with Rabobank. Choose the bank
with one hundred and twenty years global agribusiness experience. Grow
with Rabobank.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
Good Morning New Zealand. I'm Jamie McKay. This is the
best of the country. Each and every Saturday morning here
on News Talks edby we play the best bits of
our weekday show twelve to one and it's brought to
you by Rabobank. We're growing a better New Zealand together. Well,
this week's been all about the world and Liberation Day,
Trump and as tariffs. But on Monday Show, before we
(00:44):
got into that, I chatted to David Seymour, Act Party
leaders soon to be Deputy PM, and I asked him
if the current Deputy PM, none other than Winston, has
cut us lunch when it comes to the war on woken,
pulling out of the Paris Accord and has he gone
soft on the supermarkets. Doctor Jacqueline Roweath, leading primary sector
academic and columnist, talking about young farmers and old farmers
(01:06):
and what she got up to at Messi University in
the seventies being picked in Rabobank's senior strategist. That means
like a chief economist discussing the latest on the us
A tariffs when they were announced. As I said Thursday
Our Time, Jane Smith North Otago Farmer Award winning environmentalist,
you never die wondering what she's thinking. And on Friday Show,
(01:29):
yesterday's show, we got Trade Minister Todd McLay to unpack
Liberation Day. Its all on the best of the country.
Speaker 1 (01:46):
The best of the country with Rabobank. Choose the bank
with a huge network of progressive farming clients.
Speaker 2 (01:53):
Rabobank fortnightly here on the Country. Act Party leaders soon
to be Deputy PM David Seymour joints it's all about
the Paris Accord and supermarkets this week. Have you, David
Seymour had to reign in your enthusiastic Egg spokesperson Mark
Cameron and some of his rhetoric around pulling out of
(02:13):
the Paris Accord.
Speaker 3 (02:15):
No, because Mark's the kind of guy that people want
as a representative. He hears them and he speaks for them.
That's why I call them the authentic voice of rural
New Zealand. Mark is somebody who I think speaks his
mind very well and if you listen to what he's saying,
that the basic position is becoming orthodox around the world. Sure,
(02:39):
everybody signed up to the par of climent accord, but
not everyone's following it, and at some point a country
late New Zealand does have to decide if the costs
of being in are greater than the costs or the
penalties of pulling out. Now, I would say that at
the moment, the consequences of market access if we were
(02:59):
to leave, probably greater than the costs of staying in,
but that calculus may shift as the rest of the
world recalculates. And I think the opportunity in the meantime
that Andrew Hogard and Mark Cameron have suggested to me
is that New Zealand should be looking to form an
alliance with like minded countries such as Uruguay, a lot
(03:20):
of South America, a lot of rice growers in Asia
who are exposed on methane emissions, to get a better
deal for methane around the world, get methane's true scientific
characteristics better accepted. And that's in part why our government,
at the behest of act, I might add, has done
(03:41):
a new investigation into the split gas approach. So we've
actually got sensible government policy to take to the.
Speaker 2 (03:47):
World has Winston Peters, David Seymour cut your lunch. When
it comes to the war on work, He's made no
bones about it. He says, why are we making a
rod for our own backs? Being part of the paris
are called wishing our farmers and our taxpayers and our
economy when China or the US could sneeze and produce
more CO two overnight than we do in a year.
(04:08):
Does he have a point?
Speaker 3 (04:11):
Well, I have to agree, because I think that's been
saying it for a bit longer and a bit more clearly,
So yes, I guess I'd have to agree he does.
Speaker 2 (04:23):
I note that Winston was also sent out an email.
The irony of it is he sent one to one
of our staff members, who would be fair to say
is more center left than center right, and he was
asking her for some money to continue his war on woke.
Is the act party doing likewise?
Speaker 3 (04:41):
I think at some point people actually want New Zealand
to work and fit together, and you've got to be
able to articulate what you stand for and act as
a party. We believe that each person should be treated
with equal dignity, and that if you want to talk
about things like kindness. It's not about dividing people into
(05:03):
identities and chastising people that don't genuflex to the right
minority group on the right day. It's actually about recognizing
that New Zealand can only succeed when each person flourishes
in their own way. And all you need to do
is some basic rules of treating other people more kindly.
(05:24):
So you know, you can have a war on woke
if you like. But I think at some point you
need to ask yourself how is it all supposed to work?
And I think treating people with basic dignity and respect
so they d.
Speaker 2 (05:41):
Channeling you're channeling your Justinda there kindness.
Speaker 3 (05:47):
No, I don't think that we should allow her to
own the word kindness. I think it's actually something that
all of us try to practice as we go through life.
It's not She doesn't own it, and frankly, she didn't
do a very good job of it. She was always
ready to whack a minority group, whether it was licensed fire,
(06:07):
our owners, farmers, landlords, small business owners. You know, they
all got picked on and pulled down at some point.
X messages that if you really believe in treating people well,
then yeah, you need to not discriminate on people's characteristics.
You need to take people as you find them and
look for the best in people. If we all do that,
I think there's no limit to David the problems were
(06:29):
solving it.
Speaker 2 (06:30):
You're getting you're getting soft in your old age. Have
you gone soft on the supermarkets?
Speaker 3 (06:36):
Well, I mean I look at the basic proposition the
government signed up to ask the rest of the world,
why aren't you here? That's something that I campaigned on.
I must have said that in one hundred town hauls
up and down the country and opposition. I'd actually tell
the supermarket executives from the top ten in the world,
We'll give you an all expenses paid weekend in Queenstown,
(06:58):
but while you're here, tell us why you're invest and
that is roughly without the weekend in Cleanstown. What Nicola
is proposing to do with them. I think that's very positive.
There's also speculation about breaking up businesses and so on.
I just take a couple of points about that. The
first is that you caring on for what I said before.
(07:21):
I don't think it helps to have a bunch of
people that we make the demons and blame for all
our problems. That that's not going to get New Zealand
to a place we need to be. We actually need
to unleash more people's creativity and push up success more,
not not drag people down, just as labor did with
all those groups I mentioned. You know, we don't want
(07:42):
our government to have an oil and gas moment. And
the second thing is following on from that. You know,
we actually want people from around the world to see
New Zealand there's a great place to do business and
invest and if they believe that, you know, if they
do a bit too well, they'll face the wrath of
the government with out any notice, a little bit like
(08:02):
how oil and guess Scott shut down without notice. Then
we're actually going to get less of the investment we
need and that's not ultimately good for anyone.
Speaker 2 (08:10):
No, neither are giopolies. David Seymour, thank you very much
for your time. Appreciate it.
Speaker 3 (08:15):
Hey, thank you very much. Hope you have a great day.
And how many radio stations are there in New Zealand. Now,
I think that's almost a monopoly, isn't it.
Speaker 2 (08:23):
Well, good luck with that, David Seymour. I think the
difference between the media companies and the supermarkets at the moment,
and the banks, I'll throw them in there as well.
Is that the media companies aren't making a fortune. Good
luck anyone else trying to enter that industry got to go.
Thanks for your time.
Speaker 3 (08:38):
I got to tell you that the products are selling
are a bit tastier than what half the media is covering.
You know. Let's see if the media covers certain stories
this week.
Speaker 2 (08:48):
All right, you mean school lunches gotta go?
Speaker 3 (08:50):
Bye bye.
Speaker 2 (08:55):
David Seymour on Monday Show, Good Morning, my name's Jamie McKay.
This is the best of the country. It's brought to
you by Rabobank. Also on Monday Show, Dr Jacqueline Rowath
leading primary sect their academic talking about old farmers and
new ones, young ones, Young Farmer of the Year final,
Regional Final. Does that make sense? Yes, it's on in
(09:15):
Southland today, the Big Grand Final also coming up in
Southland in early July. Also Ben picked in Rabobank senior
strategists out of Rabobank's Sydney office talking about those Trump
tariffs and of course we've got an OCR decision coming
up on Wednesday, and before the end of the hour,
Jane Smith Todd McLay Trade Minister. It's all on the
(09:37):
Best of the Country, brought to you by Rabobank.
Speaker 1 (09:45):
The best of the Country with Rabobank, the bank with
local acribanking experts passionate about the future of rural communities Rabobank.
Speaker 2 (09:54):
She writes an excellent column on our website The Country
dot co dot nz. This one is about young farmers,
but doctor Jack will and Roweth, you also want to
talk about old farmers. Not that you're old, of course,
but you did have a reunion of your messy egg
science class of nineteen seventy seven. How did it go?
Speaker 4 (10:17):
It was lovely seventy seven we started eighty one. Most
of us graduated, but not all. You know, there's a
bit of plus or minus and some time off in between.
But it was just a lovely time to catch up
with people and talking about the fact that having had
four years or was it three depending in class gave
us the most extraordinary network. And I feel quite sad
(10:40):
that the online generation will never have that, and of
course they don't know what they've missed, but the ability
to ring people or be wrung for information or advice
or just talking, you know, life in general. What do
I do with the kids now. It's been important over
those almost fifty years, very important.
Speaker 2 (11:03):
Well, having a conversation, are you the most famous alumni?
Speaker 4 (11:08):
Good heavens, there are lots of people who have done
lots of good things, including because they've had an entrepreneurial
bent made good money. There are people who have been
superb farming and setting up new ventures and doing new
things that set the example for the region. So lots
and lots of activities of different types or on the
(11:30):
basis of the agricultural science degree, we've got engineers, We've
got people who carve or rock blast or Kevin Kilsby
he wasn't there, but he's one of the classmates and
he does that wonderful pottery with the putaco and mad
eyes up in Auckland. Lots and lots of different activities,
all making New Zealand a better place.
Speaker 2 (11:51):
Were they crazy hazy days? Jaquelin? Did you spend most
of your time at lots of students, pub and a
parmy called fitzerber is it?
Speaker 4 (12:00):
I wouldn't dream of commenting, No, I didn't.
Speaker 2 (12:02):
Did you Inhale, Jacqueline? Did you Inhale?
Speaker 4 (12:07):
I wasn't offered anything and I'm quite happy to be
keeping it that way.
Speaker 2 (12:11):
Okay, let's talk about young farmers. On the weekend we
had the ara Angi final sixth out of seven Gareth
mccirtchhere getting home there. We've got the Otago Southland Regional
Final on Saturday, and then we're going back to Southland
in July for the Grand Final. Going to be brilliant.
But in your column you've alluded to the fact that
we need to encourage and aid young people into farms.
(12:34):
When I was a young farmer, Jacqueline, we were aided
by the fact that the Rural Bank would give you
a special settlement loan if you owed them enough money.
But it got you a start. That avenue is no
longer available and.
Speaker 4 (12:47):
We need to be thinking about it again. So I'm
encouraged by the fact that ASB are doing something with
the dairy innovation that dairy Industry awards they've announced in
some cases with Santera and others, not the one percent loan,
and I think that there should be more of this
sort of thing discussed. And of course lots of people
will then ring you up, sorry Jomie, and say we're
(13:10):
doing it as well. But the point is we're getting
behind the eight ball here and we don't want that.
In New Zealand weightfully at the cutting edge. Other countries
that EU in particular, are putting in all sorts of
loans to get the young on farm. And one of
the things we discussed in Napier at the weekend with
old farmers is how we're assisting children or indeed others
(13:33):
through equity partnerships to become farmers of the future and
do the good things that my classmates have.
Speaker 2 (13:40):
Done now, Jack Well, and back in the late seventies
when you weren't inhaling at Messi University, we did have,
sorry to keep going on about that, we did have
land corpse, predecessor lands and Survey and they used to
help young farmers onto farms with ballot blocks. Are you
suggesting we go back to that.
Speaker 4 (13:59):
No, I think it would be, Johnny difficult unless we
sought out the interest rates because the ballot blocks they
were actually some of them were pretty shown pretty difficult
to develop, and that's where some of our landslips have
come from. So now I think we should be looking
at the land we've got already in production and thinking
about how older farmers might like to assist perhaps with
(14:20):
the bank assistance as well, or maybe some paths relief.
That's what Ireland's doing and a good effect to allow
good equity partnerships and allow these shoulders and the breadth
of experience to be passed to the next generation. So
otherwise we've got all going to be in a muddle
of out food production.
Speaker 2 (14:40):
Back in nineteen seventy seven, Jequel and they also had
the Young Farmer of the Year Grand Final televised live
on TV one. We should be bringing that back.
Speaker 4 (14:51):
I love it, just it would be absolutely superb if
we could do that and company calendar. We know it's
an icon on Sunday night. Well let's go back to
having some of these specials on Saturdays. And in fact
they do it for rugby. Could we not do it
for farming? Sure?
Speaker 2 (15:09):
No, no, I've just found this in the studio here
as we speak live. I'll give you one hundred dollars
Jacqueline to the charity of your choice if you can
name the nineteen seventy seven Young Farmer of the Year.
Speaker 3 (15:22):
An I'm sorry no either.
Speaker 2 (15:24):
Could I but it was a bloke by the name
of Keith Holmes, and I know in nineteen eighty a.
Speaker 4 (15:30):
Guy from down well I shouldn't known.
Speaker 2 (15:33):
Well, there you go, you've just lost one hundred dollars
for the charity of your choice. James Watt who came
from my neck of the woods down in south and
he won it in nineteen eighty. So there's some real
talk about alumni. There's some great names here that have
come through the young farmer's real industry leaders.
Speaker 4 (15:49):
Yeah, Warwick Chattos and think about Murray Turley was third
I think in the Grand finals from the great term
Tamoka district and he's a great leader in agriculture. But
also think about John mccaur who's now Federal de Farmer's
growing working there in the Canterbury district. There'll be some
terrific ones, lovely lovely lad some latters. Of course, we
(16:12):
can remember Emma so doing good work and continuing to
do so. So let's all vote and it would take
more than one hundred dollars to get it back on
Saturday night, but Saturday Night Lives would be great.
Speaker 2 (16:24):
Well, there we go, doctor jackl and Raah, thank you
very much for your time, see you later.
Speaker 1 (16:28):
Thanks by the best of the country with robobk choose
the bank with one hundred and twenty years global agribusiness
experience grow with rubbobk it.
Speaker 2 (16:37):
Is liberation day. Let's get some commentary on Trump's tariffs.
Our expert in the field, or one of them is
being picked and he's a senior strata just effectively. The
chief economist for Rabobank based out of Sydney Elbow, Your
Prime Minister, Anthony Alberanisi said it was not the act
of a friend, but being picked in that ten percent.
(16:59):
Did Australia and New Zealand get off lightly good?
Speaker 5 (17:02):
Jamie? Yeah, I think it's fair to say that Australia
and New Zealand have come out comparatively well in this
round of reciprocal tariffs. So if we look through the
lift of some of the numbers applied to other countries
that are quite a bit higher than the ten percent
that New Zealand and Australia are facing, for Cambodia at
forty nine percent, Sri Lanka at forty four, Bangledes thirty seven,
(17:26):
China thirty four, Indonesia thirty two, So ten percent looks
okay in the context.
Speaker 2 (17:32):
Yeah, not to mention Japan at twenty four percent, India
twenty six, the EU at twenty Yet the UK ben
picked and got away with ten percent like US.
Speaker 5 (17:44):
Yeah, that's right. So it's interesting looking not just at
the tariffs that the US is imposing on other countries,
but also at the numbers that the US calculated as
the equivalent tariff rate that the United States faces when
exporting into these other markets. And something that stuck out
to me is that they face trade barriers of about
(18:07):
ten percent tariff equivalent for Australia, but for New Zealand
they calculate that figure at about twenty percent. So maybe
if there's another shoe to drop in the trade war,
at some point, New Zealand might be a little bit
more exposed than what Australia.
Speaker 2 (18:22):
Stephen Jacobe, a trade expert here in New Zealand. I'm
sure you're well aware of him. He said, unjustified, painful,
but at a lower level of pain than expected. And
as I said, Albanizi, your guys said, not the act
of a friend. We send nine billion dollars worth of
goods to the US. They're our second biggest trading partner,
twelve percent of exports by value, who ultimately bears the
(18:47):
cost of this is it US as the exporter or
the Americans as the end consumer.
Speaker 5 (18:54):
Yeah, so there's going to be a bit of a
mix between the two, but ultimately the end consumer will
pay more of the cost of the tarsfts than what
the exporting nations will. So what we would expect to
see is slightly lower prices for some of the things
that we're exporting to the United States. And beef really
sticks out as the number one export for both New
Zealand and Australia going to the USA. But the USA
(19:18):
can't supply its own consumption needs with beef produced inside
the USA. So what's going to happen in the short
term at least is higher prices for US consumers. So
most of the cost of these tasks will actually be
born by US citizens.
Speaker 2 (19:35):
Why did Trump call out Australian beef in particular, because
our Australian correspondent, Chris Russell is coming up on the
show shortly texted me earlier this morning and said, maybe
Australia is a bit guilty of using biosecurity as a
bit of a shield and the Americans are none too
happy about it.
Speaker 5 (19:54):
Yeah, so this is something that the USA has been
complaining about for years and years that Australia imposes non
tariff barriers through our biosecurity measures. So we restricts fresh food,
particularly from coming into the Australian market. So we don't
allow us beef, we don't allow apples and pears, we
(20:17):
don't allow fresh pork products, and we don't allow fresh
poultry products either because of biosecurity reasons. But there are
questions around the validity of some of the biosecurity concerns
that have been raised by the United States Trade representative
over many years. They haven't been happy about it. So
(20:39):
there is a little bit of a sense on the
American side that some of these biosecurity laws are sort
of shadow tariffs that have been imposed by Australia.
Speaker 2 (20:49):
Wall Street obviously not trading at the moment it's evening
or nighttime in the US. The Australian and New Zealand
share markets didn't like it. I think Wall Street futures
trading was down two percent. It looks like the world
economy doesn't like this at all.
Speaker 5 (21:05):
Yeah, well that's the that's the financial economy. So Donald
Trump has been pretty clear that he's he's putting these
in place for US manufacturers and farmers, not for the
US bankers and hedge funds. So that's probably not the
constituency that he's trying to keep happy with these sorts
of measures. We've we've had it very very good for
(21:26):
about forty years through increased trade liberalization and financialization in
the financial markets, and the shoe might be on the
other foot at the moment.
Speaker 2 (21:36):
So being picked in with US senior stratages for Rabo
Bank out of Sydney ben ocr next Wednesday, what are
you picking?
Speaker 5 (21:44):
Yeah, well, we think the RBNZ is going to cut again,
but the cut won't be as big as what we've
had recently. So we're expecting point two five percentage points
next week and we think we'll get one more of
those in as well.
Speaker 2 (22:00):
What about Trump with the tariffs and the inflation that's
going to cause around the world, Will that upset the
apple card?
Speaker 5 (22:07):
Yeah, well, it's definitely going to have an effect. So
we think that the tariffs are inflationary in the United
States because they're increasing the prices of all the imported goods,
but probably disinflationary to some extent for other countries around
the world because they won't be able to sell that
product into the United States or not as easily as
(22:30):
they previously could, and therefore they're probably going to discount
goods and dump them into other markets. So that might
mean that we get some cheap product being dumped into
the New Zealand market.
Speaker 6 (22:40):
In the short term.
Speaker 5 (22:41):
That's probably short term disinflationary, So there's different effects in
different countries. Over the long run. Kind of what's happening
is we're emphasizing production inside national borders rather than emphasizing
international efficiency. Comparative advance globalization is maybe seeing the tide
(23:03):
go out a little bit, and over the longer run
that's probably bad news for the supply side of the
economy and points to structurally higher inflation in the future.
Speaker 2 (23:13):
Ben Pickton from Rabobank, thanks for your time today on
the country.
Speaker 5 (23:17):
Cheers, Damie, appreciate it.
Speaker 1 (23:19):
The best of the country with Rabobank. Choose the bank
with a huge network of progressive farming clients.
Speaker 2 (23:25):
Rabobank, Good morning, New Zealand. I'm Jamie McKay. This is
the best of the Country, brought to you by Rabobank.
We're growing a better New Zealand together. Music today from
the Communeads, one of my favorite eighties remakes up next
(23:45):
on the Best of the Country North Otago farmer and
former winner of the Balanced Farm Environment Awards, which are
on as we speak, Jane Smith. You never die wondering
what she's thinking. Todd McClay, Minister of Agriculture and Trade,
caught up with them on yesterday's show What do these
Trump tariffs mean for New Zealand farmers? Talking about Rabobank.
Applications for the Rabobank Executive Development Program are now open now.
(24:10):
This is uniquely designed for farm owners or senior managers.
This program will provide successful applicants with the skills and
knowledge to advance their businesses. Go to the website rabobank
dot co dot nz Applications clothes on April fifteenth now,
Surfing for Farmers is wrapping up right around the country.
(24:31):
It's getting a wee bit chillier, although we have had
some warm weather as well. So Rabobank, major sponsor of
Surfing for Farmers, gave away twenty five surfboards to every
location in New Zealand where they had Surfing for Farmers.
The competition saw are surfboards awarded to at least one
lucky participant at each of those twenty five locations I mentioned.
(24:53):
They were announced by rabobank staff during late February and March.
To find out more about Surfing for farm and that's
rabobank Executive Development program, go to the website rabobank dot
co dot nz. Up next, Jane Smith, You're going to.
Speaker 3 (25:08):
Love her.
Speaker 1 (25:13):
The best of the country with Rabobank, the bank with
local agribanking experts, passionate about the future of rural communities, Rabobank.
Speaker 2 (25:21):
Althotago farmer and a woman of many talents. Yesterday she
was seaman testing balls. Today she's going to talk to
us about Donald Trump's tariffs from a farmer's point of
view from the coal face. Jane Smith, Good afternoon.
Speaker 7 (25:36):
Good afternoon, Jamie. Hopefully not going to sort of draw
a light you line between the two being similar or something.
I'm not sure, But now it's been a fascinating twenty
four hours, hasn't it really? In terms of trade and
as you know, Jamie, there's no winners in a trade war.
And I guess the question is one who will pay
for this in terms of the direct costs into the
USA and whether we pay a price in terms of demand.
(25:58):
But either way it's going to be what we will be,
probably nine hundred million dollars. So I think, you know,
from New Zealand's point of view, we need to keep
a calm head on us. It looks like we have.
There could be an upside, you know. I think it
means that we will become hopefully more crystal clear about
what we produce and how we do it, and hopefully
leads to a few conversations about, you know, some of
the unnecessary burdens that we put on our producers on
(26:19):
that produce red meat and milk before it even leaves
our shores, so higher and higher cost of production, you know,
wasting money on overly intrusive audits, et cetera. It might
mean we have a conversation now about ge do we
or do we not? Because it's sort of sort of
slipped through the cracks that sort of seems a given
that we're going to be doing it, But actually is
that a way to DIFFERENTI our product even more to
(26:40):
continue to be gu free. And I guess we know
that they need our lean hamburger meat. And once the
Yanks start paying more for their what is it, fifty
billion burgers, they eat a year. That's something like three
per person per week, Jmie. So you know that may
things might change once they become you know, realized the
rubber HiT's the road. And it's been really interesting to
(27:02):
see some speculation coming out of Australia this morning that
the Aussies are about to make a move on the
trade chess board by opening its doors to US beef,
so reciprocal importation type scenario worth beef. That hasn't happened
since I guess the BC and when was at two
thousand and three. So that is quite interesting in terms
(27:22):
of that and I'm not suggesting we should be doing
that at all, but I'm suggesting that one that is
quite strange. But also it might mean some other doors
open up for us. But never has there been a
time that we should be you know, we should be
more bolder and rather than the semi sort of passive
approach that we're known for sometimes, you know, I know,
my Indian colleague on their global farm around table often says,
(27:45):
you know, you've got all the opportunity in the world,
all of the resources, but you are a very weak
seller in the world. New Zealand we tend to go
to the world with cap in hand saying please, sirve,
will you buy some more, when actually we should be
more focused like this ree does and say actually we've
got a damn fine product. We'll pay a damn fine
price for it. Let's talk. So yeah, I just think
(28:07):
it's it might just open up a bit of clarity
instead of actually, I guess punishing ourselves within before the
meat even leaves the country. Actually, let's just be really
clear on what we're doing and what actually does make
our product different, Jamie.
Speaker 2 (28:20):
Earlier in the week we spoke to David Seymour about
pulling out of the Powers accord. And I know you're
a bit of a poster girl for ground Swell, Jane Smith,
so you're all for it.
Speaker 7 (28:31):
Yeah, Well again, Jamie, the whole methane conversation has never
really happened. I mean the end of the day, and
you know this, and we all know this. Unfortunately, our
industry has painted ourselves into some sort of sacrificial corner.
And we all know that methane, if it is steady
or decreasing, it is not adding to warming. So that
fact seems to have been markedly missed out. And what
(28:53):
have we done we've actually doubled down and put more
money wasted, more's tax pay money. I think there's another
four hundred million dollars in the in the pipeline to
be used on metha mitigation, which just seems fascical when
you think that could have gone into real research. Jamie
and I guess on that. In terms of real research,
I had a fascinating evening that we went to a
(29:15):
couple of weeks ago was Balance Agranutrients. And you know,
in terms of real research on a real problem, Warwick
Cato and as Agg research team has developed an amazing
product that is going to be potentially significantly reduced pasta
lava on pasta so l three lave as you know,
as ninety percent of the problem, what do we do?
(29:36):
We only dose the ten percent of the problem and
the animal and waste. I think it's three hundred million
dollars doing that. So you know, that's real research or
the real research and healthcare, et cetera. But we again,
we tend to sort of take the passive approach of
we must do more to be global heroes. Well, actually,
let's just be really productive, really efficient and do really
really good environmental things. Shaming. Not this this sort of
(29:58):
the chasing rainbow, et cetera, which is all that we're
doing by pandering to the paris called Jamie.
Speaker 2 (30:03):
Just finally, how are things on the North Otago farm.
Speaker 7 (30:07):
Well, I'm standing out in the paddock at the moment, Jamie.
And usually autumn is the time that really nails us.
Usually we don't have an autumn. We don't have an
opportunity for at autumn flush or anything like that. And
I'm a little bit sheepish if you like to say
that we've had I think we've had one hundred and
ninety mils for the year, which is unbelievable. And again
I feel guilty saying that for all of those dry areas,
(30:27):
and we have got with having an autumn, and we've
got twenty four degrees here today, and yeah, so I guess,
you know, it is nice for most of the East
Coast actually have a bit of a good autumn for once, Jamie.
We will take it. But again I just sort of
feel a bit guilty about it. But yeah, onwards and upwards,
I guess for a good autumn going into winter, Jamie.
Speaker 2 (30:49):
Jane Smith, thanks for your time. I'm always appreciated on
the country.
Speaker 1 (30:52):
Thanks Jamy, the best of the country with rubbo back.
Choose the bank with one hundred and twenty years global
agribusiness experience. Grow with rubber bag.
Speaker 2 (31:01):
Tord McLay is the Minister of Agriculture and Trade. He's
had one day to unpack and digest Liberation Day. Todd,
let's cut to the chase here. What is this going
to mean for New Zealand farmers.
Speaker 3 (31:13):
Well, it is for.
Speaker 6 (31:14):
Much of what we sell into that market, Jamie, ten
percent more on the tariffs are already playing so quite tougher.
Butter for beef, it's just slightly more than ten percent
will be the tariff rate. Tariffs are not good for
New Zealand, so that's concerning. However, we are no less
competitive against other exporters in that market because everybody in
the world is facing an additional ten percent, and many
countries as many as forty their tariff rates are much
(31:37):
much higher than that. So what I'm starting to hear
from our exporters is they are looking at the detail
of it is, although they're going to have to find
ways to meet that ten percent extra cost, some of
which will be passed on or a lot will be
passed on to US consumers. They are seeing there could
be opportunities and some products in there to sell more ironically,
(31:57):
and so we're going to continue to look at what
it means to get more information. Over the next day
or so, as you know, the US Administration starts releasing
more detail of yesterday's speech and announcement.
Speaker 2 (32:09):
On the face of it, Okay, we've got nine billion
dollars worth of trade from New Zealand to the US.
That equates to obviously a nine hundred million dollar tariff.
I think we can live with that, Todd. But what
about the collateral damage to some of our biggest trading
partners China, the EU.
Speaker 6 (32:27):
Yeah, yeah, that's right. It's going to be quite tough
for them. I'll cover that in a moment. Just on
that nine hundred billion dollars. Yes, that's just an up
and down figure of ten percent of nine billion dollars
worth of exports. But I think a lot of that
is going to be taken up by the US consumers.
Think about the beef we sell in that it's a
very important beef market for US. Two things happen. We
sell very high end beef into restaurants and a lot
(32:49):
more as ground that goes into the hamburgers. You know,
if you go to a restaurant in New York and
you get one hundred dollars steak meal and it's New
Zealand beef in that restaurant, you know, beef might be
fifty dollars. Ten percent of that your meal is going
to be one hundred and five dollars. That is going
to get passed on. So it's going to be inflationary.
And I would be worried if others had a lower
(33:10):
tariff rate than us, but they don't. It's the same.
And by the way, Australia is not selling any beef
at the moment because you've put a restriction on that.
And so you know, there is going to be opportunities
there for us in those markets, but it's going to
be a bit harder work and challenging. Jamie, you mentioned
the other places, the EU and China. I expect we're
going to see tariff escalation and retaliation from there. That
(33:32):
is concerning for us. We won't get caught in that,
but it's going to have an impact upon their markets.
You know, will there be a slowdown in their economies?
You know, will there be uncertainty, consumers may step back
a little bit. But incidentally, with beef again, China has
already had tariffs put in place against America. They're not
importing American beef at the moment, I'm told and anecdotally
(33:55):
some of our beef exports to China are telling me
they're getting calls from their customers wanting more beef at
the moment because Chinese consumers still want the steak in
the restaurant or on the supermarket shell, so they're going
to look elsewhere in the world. If there is a
big fight brewing with the US and US not selling
products anywhere.
Speaker 2 (34:13):
Have you had any luck getting to the bottom of
the supposed twenty percent tariff we impose on the US,
Todd McLay.
Speaker 6 (34:21):
It's wrong. We don't, so that is a mistake. Although
I see over night. I woke up this morning with
reports coming to me out of Washington from our embassy
that the US is clarified. What they've done is that
that's a trade deficit. What they've done is they've said, you,
we buy from you twenty percent more than we sell you. Therefore,
we've decided that's a tariff, which is not the New
(34:43):
Zealand tariff rate on average for US products into New
Zealand is one point nine percent, and in the other
direction the average for US and to the US is
about two point two percent. Now, arguably, I suppose Jamie
is if the President had put that up. You know
that the New Zealand tariff rates are lower than the
US terraff than the US tariff rates we're going to
(35:04):
ten percent. It didn't look good. They're talking about a
trade deficit and that will change because we're going to
be buying things from them soon. You know, the New
Zealand needs more airplanes in New Zealand world that goes
around there are much of the time we buy more
than we sell at the moment the other way around.
My officials over the night have reached out and been
in contact with the USTR, the Trade office there to
(35:27):
say it's wrong, and I will be writing to my
account about Ambassador Degree respectfully to saying actually, this is
what the tariff rates are. It's not twenty percent, you're
all mate.
Speaker 2 (35:36):
Winston Peter's final question here on yesterday's show said it
was a victorious stay in New Zealand with there just
as well as any country on Earth. But let's face
Todd McLay, anything that doesn't free up trade or makes
trade more difficult or more regulated, is not good for
a free trading nation.
Speaker 6 (35:54):
Yeah, that's right. Well, Winston's correct though, because we are
the same as we're better than most countries the world,
and so actually, you know, our exporters are in a
better position. But he agrees, and I've talked to you know,
he and I'd be talking about this a lot over
the previous week. Anywhere tariff's are put in place doesn't
work for New Zealand and it's not good for us. However,
one last thing I wanted to say, Jamie, to give
(36:16):
you an example. Tariff rates and themselves are not bad
unless they're only against you. So if you take the
Indian market as an example, New Zealand wine exporters face
AE hundred and fifty percent tariff rate. Australia, through their agreement,
has a seventy five percent teriff rate. Now seventy five
percent is still far too high for freedom of trade,
but they're selling a lot more Australian wine up there
(36:38):
than New Zealand wine because it's seventy five percent cheaper
than Oursers and so in itself that we are at
ten percent across the board and others are the same
or higher. Our exporters in the US market are no
less competitive. In fact against the Europeans, you know, we
are ten percent more competitive and others a lot more
than that. And so I back you know, experts who
(37:00):
are nimble and good at what they do to continue
to do well in the US market as they also
look around the world for more opportunities, and they'll keep
selling high quality, safe food that's in a farmer's produced
and they'll keep getting a good return for it.
Speaker 2 (37:12):
Every cloud has a silver lining. Todd McLay, Minister of Trade.
Good luck. You're going to earn your keep over the
next few months.
Speaker 3 (37:19):
Thank you so much.
Speaker 6 (37:20):
We're going to keep working away at it.
Speaker 1 (37:23):
The best of the country with Rabobank. Choose the bank
with a huge network of progressive farming clients.
Speaker 2 (37:29):
Rabobank, Minister of Agriculture and Trade. Todd McLay wrapping the
best of the country. Good morning. My name's Jamie McKay.
Each and every Saturday morning here on ZB the show's
brought to you by Rabobank. We're growing a better New
Zealand together can Boden Barrett bring the Blues back from
(37:51):
the brink. It's a lot of bees, isn't it tonight?
I hope so for the blues sake, And of course
my Highlanders are over in Perth. After that, Can Ethan
de Groot fix the Highland of scrum all be revealed tonight?
As I said at the beginning of the show, this
is the Commune ads Jimmy Somerville, Sarah Jane Morris, great
old video from the eighties. I thought i'd take you
(38:13):
out with that one today just because I can catch
them back the same time, same place next Saturday morning.
Speaker 8 (39:00):
Just words. I'm sure y'all k no make queer. I'm honestly,
(39:21):
it's just I'm like you. I'm going down this fut
it myself.
Speaker 3 (39:31):
I can sing, I'm.
Speaker 8 (39:35):
Going down. Don't know, y'all, go but that that break.
Don't get tip, don't get ta, don't get to
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