November 4, 2024 • 7 mins
The former National Party leader has transformed into an American political podcaster. Today we get his take on arguably the most important presidential election of our lifetime. Is he picking Kamala or Trump?
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Well as promised here he is Todd Muller, former National
Party leader, albeit for only a couple of months back
in twenty twenty. If they'd decided to stay in there,
he could possibly have been the Minister of Agriculture under
Christopher Luxen. Todd Muller, do you regret getting out of politics?
Speaker 2 (00:19):
Well, it's great to talk to you, Jamien. No, absolutely not.
That was the right decision for me. And it's amazing
how quickly you move on. And I'm sure you get
this when you talk to other ex politicians.
Speaker 1 (00:31):
Yeah, well there's life after politics. And I must say,
certainly from a distance, looking from afar, I think Todd
mcclay's doing a very good job, especially as Minister of Trade.
The reason I've got you on the show today is
you're a bit like me, except you're far worse. You
are the ultimate almost in American political geeks. And I
say that as a compliment Todd Muller.
Speaker 2 (00:54):
Now, well I take it as a compliment. Yeah. I've
loved American politics since it was about twelve. My parents
gave me a world book, Encyclopedia, and I got so
touched by it I wrote a book about how I
was going to be the president, Jamie, which my mum
still has and thank god never saw the light of day,
because if they thought the Trump hat was bad, you
imagine them reading a book about me being the president. Wow.
Speaker 1 (01:16):
The current Prime Minister of New Zealand is also an
American political geek, Christopher Luxen, but he can't say anything.
Speaker 2 (01:24):
You know, they were really constrained, understandably right, because he
represents New Zealand and has to be a very circumspect
in terms of his public comments with respect who's going
to win and who he would want to win.
Speaker 1 (01:37):
Okay, well let's cut straight to it. I've been over
there for a couple of weeks. I followed it closely,
not as closely as you all bout, but I reckon
Trump's going to win. But Karmela would be a better
result for New Zealand.
Speaker 2 (01:49):
Yes, I think she would be a better result. I
mean her economic policies will bite up the American deficit
obviously Trump's if he follows through, it would make it worse.
She's less aggressive on trade, but hardly favorable to us.
He's a nightmare with his a suggestion of ten to
twenty percent tariffs on all imports of sixty percent on
(02:10):
Chinese imports, so your listeners will know what that would
mean if he actually followed through on it. She's more
predictable in terms of geopolitical issues and how to position America.
He's very erratic and you never really know what he's
going to do one moment to the next, and has
a tendency to like all the strong men of the world.
So certainly from a New Zealand perspective, I would hope
(02:33):
Kamala Harris wins. I think she probably will. A week
ago I thought that Trump had it by a nose,
but I think she's finish, stronger, and look at a
lot will be turnout and tracks what does that mean?
Are the women of America going to turn out and
big numbers? If they do, she wins. And if the
men of America turn out and bigger numbers than normal,
(02:54):
then Trump will probably win.
Speaker 1 (02:56):
Is it the Republican women who may switch sides?
Speaker 2 (03:00):
And actually I saw there's a quite a clever campaign,
but it shows how polarized the America's got of post it
notes and women's toilets, essentially saying to the Republican woman
that might be in there and the toilet that they
can always have. It's always private in the boot, and
your husband doesn't need to know who you vote for,
(03:22):
even even if he's ready pro Trump. I kid you not, right,
So I think on balance it's probably going to be Harris.
But sure, man, it's fifty to fifty still. I mean,
I wouldn't be surprised if Trump one, but I think
Harris has had the better closure.
Speaker 1 (03:38):
Do you think the electoral college system is outdated because
we often, more often than not, the candidate who wins
the popular vote doesn't win the White House.
Speaker 2 (03:49):
I mean at one level, yes, because if you look
at twenty twenty four, the way elections work is who
gets the most votes wins well apart from New Zealand
in twenty seventeen, but that's another story. The electoral college
is all designed to ensure that the smaller states and
the people, that even the smaller states don't get overwhelmed
by New York and California. And because New York and
California are just two states out of fifty, those other
(04:13):
smaller populated states never going to agree to change it,
so it's going to stay, in my view, And.
Speaker 1 (04:18):
They also have a two house system, and in the Senate,
correct me if I'm wrong, because it is rather complex.
Every state gets two seats.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
That's exactly right. And of course the Senat are there
for six years and the House representatives churn every two years.
So I mean, we talk about turns in New Zealand
being short at three years. In America, the House, the
four hundred and thirty eight congressmen and women, they are
perpetually campaigning because every second November they're up for it again.
Speaker 1 (04:45):
Do you not think Trump might sneak home in those
swing states, because That's what I've been packing and I'm
sticking to my guns on that one once again. I
would probably prefer a Harris victory just for New Zealand
trade prospects alone.
Speaker 2 (04:58):
Yeah. Look, there are seven swing states and they are
the blue I saw the traditional Blue Wall caught blue
because the Democrats tended to win the Wall, which is Wisconsin, Michigan,
and Pennsylvania. And then you drop down to the southern
states of Georgia, which is in North Carolina, which a
(05:21):
fourth and fifth of the swing states. And then you
jump right across to the sun Belt of Nevada and Arizona.
Speaker 1 (05:30):
We'll go with Arizona, shall.
Speaker 2 (05:31):
We we'll go with Arizona. But when you look at
the polling in there, it's it is neck and neck,
and the if you look at the average of poles
across those seven Jamie, it's it's certainly suggests Trump. If
you look at the last poles in those states, it
seems to have creaked towards Harris. And so that's why
(05:52):
I think there's probably a late break to her. But
I don't say it with huge confidence.
Speaker 1 (05:58):
Hey Todd Muller, it's been great to with you. What
else are you doing business wise at the moment, other
than your American political podcasts?
Speaker 2 (06:07):
Oh? Look, I chare our economic development agency called Priority one.
It's probably the I would make you probably the most
successful one here. It's been here for twenty years, done
a lot of good work. So I chair that I
do a bit of lecturing at University of White Kado,
I do my podcast, and I'm about to go and
do a class of Boxford. You wouldn't recognize me, Jamie.
Speaker 1 (06:26):
You're living a healthy lifestyle now.
Speaker 2 (06:29):
You must.
Speaker 1 (06:29):
You must be very buoyed by the way your former employer,
Zespur is going.
Speaker 2 (06:34):
Oh it's great. It's great to see that.
Speaker 1 (06:35):
And Fonterra for that matter.
Speaker 2 (06:37):
Yeah, no, it's well, you know, my second love's always
been agribusiness, and you're right, he's doing a fantastic job there.
But no, those two organizations of good leadership, real clear
view around what they need to do strategically and then
executing against it. I'm very pleased for them. By the way,
I did see a couple of pictures of you in Washington.
You look like the ultimate fanboy. My friend.
Speaker 1 (06:59):
Oh, I was a peg and muck. So I'll take
you on for a week bottle of something, I say Trump,
I'm not wishing that way, you say, Kamela, and I'm
going to hold you to it. Next time I'm in
the Bay of Plenty, see you later.
Speaker 2 (07:10):
Look forward to it.
Well as promised here he is Todd Muller, former National
Party leader, albeit for only a couple of months back
in twenty twenty. If they'd decided to stay in there,
he could possibly have been the Minister of Agriculture under
Christopher Luxen. Todd Muller, do you regret getting out of politics?
Speaker 2 (00:19):
Well, it's great to talk to you, Jamien. No, absolutely not.
That was the right decision for me. And it's amazing
how quickly you move on. And I'm sure you get
this when you talk to other ex politicians.
Speaker 1 (00:31):
Yeah, well there's life after politics. And I must say,
certainly from a distance, looking from afar, I think Todd
mcclay's doing a very good job, especially as Minister of Trade.
The reason I've got you on the show today is
you're a bit like me, except you're far worse. You
are the ultimate almost in American political geeks. And I
say that as a compliment Todd Muller.
Speaker 2 (00:54):
Now, well I take it as a compliment. Yeah. I've
loved American politics since it was about twelve. My parents
gave me a world book, Encyclopedia, and I got so
touched by it I wrote a book about how I
was going to be the president, Jamie, which my mum
still has and thank god never saw the light of day,
because if they thought the Trump hat was bad, you
imagine them reading a book about me being the president. Wow.
Speaker 1 (01:16):
The current Prime Minister of New Zealand is also an
American political geek, Christopher Luxen, but he can't say anything.
Speaker 2 (01:24):
You know, they were really constrained, understandably right, because he
represents New Zealand and has to be a very circumspect
in terms of his public comments with respect who's going
to win and who he would want to win.
Speaker 1 (01:37):
Okay, well let's cut straight to it. I've been over
there for a couple of weeks. I followed it closely,
not as closely as you all bout, but I reckon
Trump's going to win. But Karmela would be a better
result for New Zealand.
Speaker 2 (01:49):
Yes, I think she would be a better result. I
mean her economic policies will bite up the American deficit
obviously Trump's if he follows through, it would make it worse.
She's less aggressive on trade, but hardly favorable to us.
He's a nightmare with his a suggestion of ten to
twenty percent tariffs on all imports of sixty percent on
(02:10):
Chinese imports, so your listeners will know what that would
mean if he actually followed through on it. She's more
predictable in terms of geopolitical issues and how to position America.
He's very erratic and you never really know what he's
going to do one moment to the next, and has
a tendency to like all the strong men of the world.
So certainly from a New Zealand perspective, I would hope
(02:33):
Kamala Harris wins. I think she probably will. A week
ago I thought that Trump had it by a nose,
but I think she's finish, stronger, and look at a
lot will be turnout and tracks what does that mean?
Are the women of America going to turn out and
big numbers? If they do, she wins. And if the
men of America turn out and bigger numbers than normal,
(02:54):
then Trump will probably win.
Speaker 1 (02:56):
Is it the Republican women who may switch sides?
Speaker 2 (03:00):
And actually I saw there's a quite a clever campaign,
but it shows how polarized the America's got of post it
notes and women's toilets, essentially saying to the Republican woman
that might be in there and the toilet that they
can always have. It's always private in the boot, and
your husband doesn't need to know who you vote for,
(03:22):
even even if he's ready pro Trump. I kid you not, right,
So I think on balance it's probably going to be Harris.
But sure, man, it's fifty to fifty still. I mean,
I wouldn't be surprised if Trump one, but I think
Harris has had the better closure.
Speaker 1 (03:38):
Do you think the electoral college system is outdated because
we often, more often than not, the candidate who wins
the popular vote doesn't win the White House.
Speaker 2 (03:49):
I mean at one level, yes, because if you look
at twenty twenty four, the way elections work is who
gets the most votes wins well apart from New Zealand
in twenty seventeen, but that's another story. The electoral college
is all designed to ensure that the smaller states and
the people, that even the smaller states don't get overwhelmed
by New York and California. And because New York and
California are just two states out of fifty, those other
(04:13):
smaller populated states never going to agree to change it,
so it's going to stay, in my view, And.
Speaker 1 (04:18):
They also have a two house system, and in the Senate,
correct me if I'm wrong, because it is rather complex.
Every state gets two seats.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
That's exactly right. And of course the Senat are there
for six years and the House representatives churn every two years.
So I mean, we talk about turns in New Zealand
being short at three years. In America, the House, the
four hundred and thirty eight congressmen and women, they are
perpetually campaigning because every second November they're up for it again.
Speaker 1 (04:45):
Do you not think Trump might sneak home in those
swing states, because That's what I've been packing and I'm
sticking to my guns on that one once again. I
would probably prefer a Harris victory just for New Zealand
trade prospects alone.
Speaker 2 (04:58):
Yeah. Look, there are seven swing states and they are
the blue I saw the traditional Blue Wall caught blue
because the Democrats tended to win the Wall, which is Wisconsin, Michigan,
and Pennsylvania. And then you drop down to the southern
states of Georgia, which is in North Carolina, which a
(05:21):
fourth and fifth of the swing states. And then you
jump right across to the sun Belt of Nevada and Arizona.
Speaker 1 (05:30):
We'll go with Arizona, shall.
Speaker 2 (05:31):
We we'll go with Arizona. But when you look at
the polling in there, it's it is neck and neck,
and the if you look at the average of poles
across those seven Jamie, it's it's certainly suggests Trump. If
you look at the last poles in those states, it
seems to have creaked towards Harris. And so that's why
(05:52):
I think there's probably a late break to her. But
I don't say it with huge confidence.
Speaker 1 (05:58):
Hey Todd Muller, it's been great to with you. What
else are you doing business wise at the moment, other
than your American political podcasts?
Speaker 2 (06:07):
Oh? Look, I chare our economic development agency called Priority one.
It's probably the I would make you probably the most
successful one here. It's been here for twenty years, done
a lot of good work. So I chair that I
do a bit of lecturing at University of White Kado,
I do my podcast, and I'm about to go and
do a class of Boxford. You wouldn't recognize me, Jamie.
Speaker 1 (06:26):
You're living a healthy lifestyle now.
Speaker 2 (06:29):
You must.
Speaker 1 (06:29):
You must be very buoyed by the way your former employer,
Zespur is going.
Speaker 2 (06:34):
Oh it's great. It's great to see that.
Speaker 1 (06:35):
And Fonterra for that matter.
Speaker 2 (06:37):
Yeah, no, it's well, you know, my second love's always
been agribusiness, and you're right, he's doing a fantastic job there.
But no, those two organizations of good leadership, real clear
view around what they need to do strategically and then
executing against it. I'm very pleased for them. By the way,
I did see a couple of pictures of you in Washington.
You look like the ultimate fanboy. My friend.
Speaker 1 (06:59):
Oh, I was a peg and muck. So I'll take
you on for a week bottle of something, I say Trump,
I'm not wishing that way, you say, Kamela, and I'm
going to hold you to it. Next time I'm in
the Bay of Plenty, see you later.
Speaker 2 (07:10):
Look forward to it.
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