April 10, 2025 • 7 mins
Niwa’s principal scientist on whether the drought is over and the latest on the merger with MetService.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
And the reason you've got a bit of rock set
was because I was trying to drag up my kneeworre
drought indexmap and I've got it right in front of
me at the moment. He is from Newer. They're going
to be merged shortly with met Service. Our old mate
Phil Duncan's been calling that for years, Chris Brandolino, Chris,
are you guys at newhere? I see are going to
be the senior partners over met Service? Good afternoon, Oh.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
Good afternoon. I don't know if for calf this yeah, well,
I mean he was acquiring met Service, but we'll become
one entity, and so yeah, I guess that answers your question. No,
I was.
Speaker 1 (00:33):
Listening to commentary I think on with Ryan Bridge last
night on ZB like six hundred people at nee worth,
three hundred at met Service. Don't quote me on those
numbers something like that. Does it take that many people
to do a weather forecast? Chris?
Speaker 2 (00:49):
Oh gosh, Jamie, come on, you know we do a
lot more than you.
Speaker 1 (00:55):
No. I know you do that, But it seems to
me this is a logical merger that should have well
should we ever have had two government departments?
Speaker 2 (01:03):
Well, look in nineteen ninety two is when this flit happened,
and you know, so we're being reunited were used to
be one. I think that's important to remember. But back
to your question, it's not one thousands doing weather forecasting.
I mean newa with its six or six hundred and
fifty people, whatever the number is. You know, we we
(01:24):
have fisheries, we do atmospheric readings, we have fresh water science.
We have a lot of science platforms that covers basically
every facet of the hydrological cycle. You know, from the
water falling from the cloud, to the water hitting the ground,
to the water going into the streams into the oceans,
and then the water leaving the surface of the earth
as you know, from the oceans and the streams back
(01:46):
into the cloud. So our breath is much wider than
just weather forecasting. We happen to do that pretty well,
and we happen to do long range forecasting quite well.
And I think with BE coming together with met Service,
it's something we need to do as an organization. This
is going to benefit ends at Inc. And this is
needed for ends at INK. It's such a positive word.
(02:06):
This is such a unique opportunity. If you were to
go to any organization internationally and say, hey, you have
an opportunity to kind of redo things from a side
perspective with your meteorological agencies, with the emergency of data science,
you know, would you want that opportunity. I can't imagine
anyone declining that. So this is such a unique and
golden opportunity and I'm so looking forward to the future.
(02:29):
I really am good on you.
Speaker 1 (02:31):
Okay, Look the North Island drought. Is it over? In fact,
before we start with the North Island drought and whether
it's over, I'm looking at your drought index map and
on the South Island the only dry and this map
was effective from when the eighth which is two or
three days ago. But look the only dry parts was
sort of and we're going to be going there, are wee?
(02:51):
But later in the air with their farmer panel sort
of that Inland central Otago, many a Toto region, a
bit around Murchison and just the Mobra sounds someof of
them at the South orlands clear it's looking good.
Speaker 2 (03:04):
Yeah, southounds looking pretty good. It's the North Island as
we know, that has been given us trouble. We had
the rain last week which was a real, real benefit.
But look, farmers know this, and you know this, Jamie.
Look if you're a million dollars in the hole and
you whin a ten thousand dollars scratchy, that's great, but
you need more than that, right, And even when drought
(03:24):
and dryness does, and which it will, but even when
it does, and it's the effects of dryness and drought
that do for even longer, So the so and moistures.
I'm looking at the SOI moisture map, so that drought index.
Just taking a step back, that drought index map that
you were referring to, it's a longer sort of look back,
so it's a two month look back. So recent rainfall
(03:46):
i e. Last week, that will certainly help things. But
because we're looking longer back than that, there will be
a slowness in terms of where that relief really occurs
because it takes time and looking at the soil moisture
and normally where the soils and usually wet and usually
dry after that rainfall. Well, it's Northland, it's the Auckland
(04:07):
region where we have soils actually on the wet side
for the time of year. But unfortunately Watcot, though particularly
eastern Canterbury, particularly overboard the northern parts of the Manawatu
horizons and the central part of the North Island unusually
dry soils and especially toward coastal water Rappa. That is
where we're seeing the dry soils for the time of year,
(04:30):
and we're going to get rain Jamie, and we're going
to get potentially some heavy rain. So as we look
ahead toward the second half of next week, I know
school holidays upon us, we do have to look to
the north. We've kind of mentioned this before. Another rain
bearing system will be coming from the north. There's still
uncertainty whereas it travel, how strong is it, how fast
does it move. All these things are going to factor
(04:52):
in where the heaviest rain and the strongest wind occurs.
But for those listening in Northland, Auckland Regions, Watcock though
particularly Grimandel, Hawk's Bay, Tarafadi Gisbin, I think certainly pays
you know, high attention to the forecast and watch for
those warnings and watches from Met Service because that is
where we're going to find potentially some active weather second
(05:15):
half next week, getting close to good Friday.
Speaker 1 (05:17):
Okay, just to finish on the temperatures, rain fall, moist
just one part of growing grass. The other part of
the equation is the soil temperatures, which is driven obviously
by the ear temperatures. Are we going to have a
bit of an Indian summer, because that would be good.
Speaker 2 (05:32):
I think temperatures are going to favor warmth with this
low coming from the north. So for those in the
North Island we will see temperatures increasing. That will come
out of cost with the rainfall, which we want obviously.
For the South is when we are going to see
a puff of chilly air move on or probably sometimes
Sunday night your neck of the woods get you get
a bit of gusty wind, he said for Southland and
(05:54):
eastern Otago Dunners for Saturday, then that front moves through
probably the southerly chain. I ain't sign on Monday with
some showers, so you get a couple of cool, if
not chilly days. But then I think temperatures kind of
warm back up. In terms of the longer rains, Jamie,
we are expecting that temperatures are going to favor warmer
(06:15):
than average values, warmer than average spells over the coming
weeks and months, particularly as you work away through the
rest of autumn and in two winter. Of course, of
course there'll be cold snaps and we'll start to see frost,
but I think the message is that we're probably going
to see less of those than what is typical as
we mature through autumn and into the start of winter.
(06:37):
The early outlook for winter, and this is not our
official outlook, but if you're looking for some tea leaves here,
we'll probably see I probably see warmer than usual temperatures.
We're favoring east to northeasterly winds as we progress through
autumn and into winter. Doesn't mean every week will be
east to northeast, just that'll probably that'll be a theme.
And look, the wind ain't coming from the south, part
(06:58):
of my grammar, it ain't gonna get cold. So that's
how things are lining up. We'll obviously keep a look
at that. Actually, we had some new climate data command,
so I have to hand up the phone and scour
through that, and maybe when we talk next time we'll
have that. I'm off a few days next week, Jamie,
so if we want to talk, let's talk Monday or Tuesday.
Speaker 1 (07:14):
Okay, mate, you go, Well, there we go. Chris Brendolino
from newa
And the reason you've got a bit of rock set
was because I was trying to drag up my kneeworre
drought indexmap and I've got it right in front of
me at the moment. He is from Newer. They're going
to be merged shortly with met Service. Our old mate
Phil Duncan's been calling that for years, Chris Brandolino, Chris,
are you guys at newhere? I see are going to
be the senior partners over met Service? Good afternoon, Oh.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
Good afternoon. I don't know if for calf this yeah, well,
I mean he was acquiring met Service, but we'll become
one entity, and so yeah, I guess that answers your question. No,
I was.
Speaker 1 (00:33):
Listening to commentary I think on with Ryan Bridge last
night on ZB like six hundred people at nee worth,
three hundred at met Service. Don't quote me on those
numbers something like that. Does it take that many people
to do a weather forecast? Chris?
Speaker 2 (00:49):
Oh gosh, Jamie, come on, you know we do a
lot more than you.
Speaker 1 (00:55):
No. I know you do that, But it seems to
me this is a logical merger that should have well
should we ever have had two government departments?
Speaker 2 (01:03):
Well, look in nineteen ninety two is when this flit happened,
and you know, so we're being reunited were used to
be one. I think that's important to remember. But back
to your question, it's not one thousands doing weather forecasting.
I mean newa with its six or six hundred and
fifty people, whatever the number is. You know, we we
(01:24):
have fisheries, we do atmospheric readings, we have fresh water science.
We have a lot of science platforms that covers basically
every facet of the hydrological cycle. You know, from the
water falling from the cloud, to the water hitting the ground,
to the water going into the streams into the oceans,
and then the water leaving the surface of the earth
as you know, from the oceans and the streams back
(01:46):
into the cloud. So our breath is much wider than
just weather forecasting. We happen to do that pretty well,
and we happen to do long range forecasting quite well.
And I think with BE coming together with met Service,
it's something we need to do as an organization. This
is going to benefit ends at Inc. And this is
needed for ends at INK. It's such a positive word.
(02:06):
This is such a unique opportunity. If you were to
go to any organization internationally and say, hey, you have
an opportunity to kind of redo things from a side
perspective with your meteorological agencies, with the emergency of data science,
you know, would you want that opportunity. I can't imagine
anyone declining that. So this is such a unique and
golden opportunity and I'm so looking forward to the future.
(02:29):
I really am good on you.
Speaker 1 (02:31):
Okay, Look the North Island drought. Is it over? In fact,
before we start with the North Island drought and whether
it's over, I'm looking at your drought index map and
on the South Island the only dry and this map
was effective from when the eighth which is two or
three days ago. But look the only dry parts was
sort of and we're going to be going there, are wee?
(02:51):
But later in the air with their farmer panel sort
of that Inland central Otago, many a Toto region, a
bit around Murchison and just the Mobra sounds someof of
them at the South orlands clear it's looking good.
Speaker 2 (03:04):
Yeah, southounds looking pretty good. It's the North Island as
we know, that has been given us trouble. We had
the rain last week which was a real, real benefit.
But look, farmers know this, and you know this, Jamie.
Look if you're a million dollars in the hole and
you whin a ten thousand dollars scratchy, that's great, but
you need more than that, right, And even when drought
(03:24):
and dryness does, and which it will, but even when
it does, and it's the effects of dryness and drought
that do for even longer, So the so and moistures.
I'm looking at the SOI moisture map, so that drought index.
Just taking a step back, that drought index map that
you were referring to, it's a longer sort of look back,
so it's a two month look back. So recent rainfall
(03:46):
i e. Last week, that will certainly help things. But
because we're looking longer back than that, there will be
a slowness in terms of where that relief really occurs
because it takes time and looking at the soil moisture
and normally where the soils and usually wet and usually
dry after that rainfall. Well, it's Northland, it's the Auckland
(04:07):
region where we have soils actually on the wet side
for the time of year. But unfortunately Watcot, though particularly
eastern Canterbury, particularly overboard the northern parts of the Manawatu
horizons and the central part of the North Island unusually
dry soils and especially toward coastal water Rappa. That is
where we're seeing the dry soils for the time of year,
(04:30):
and we're going to get rain Jamie, and we're going
to get potentially some heavy rain. So as we look
ahead toward the second half of next week, I know
school holidays upon us, we do have to look to
the north. We've kind of mentioned this before. Another rain
bearing system will be coming from the north. There's still
uncertainty whereas it travel, how strong is it, how fast
does it move. All these things are going to factor
(04:52):
in where the heaviest rain and the strongest wind occurs.
But for those listening in Northland, Auckland Regions, Watcock though
particularly Grimandel, Hawk's Bay, Tarafadi Gisbin, I think certainly pays
you know, high attention to the forecast and watch for
those warnings and watches from Met Service because that is
where we're going to find potentially some active weather second
(05:15):
half next week, getting close to good Friday.
Speaker 1 (05:17):
Okay, just to finish on the temperatures, rain fall, moist
just one part of growing grass. The other part of
the equation is the soil temperatures, which is driven obviously
by the ear temperatures. Are we going to have a
bit of an Indian summer, because that would be good.
Speaker 2 (05:32):
I think temperatures are going to favor warmth with this
low coming from the north. So for those in the
North Island we will see temperatures increasing. That will come
out of cost with the rainfall, which we want obviously.
For the South is when we are going to see
a puff of chilly air move on or probably sometimes
Sunday night your neck of the woods get you get
a bit of gusty wind, he said for Southland and
(05:54):
eastern Otago Dunners for Saturday, then that front moves through
probably the southerly chain. I ain't sign on Monday with
some showers, so you get a couple of cool, if
not chilly days. But then I think temperatures kind of
warm back up. In terms of the longer rains, Jamie,
we are expecting that temperatures are going to favor warmer
(06:15):
than average values, warmer than average spells over the coming
weeks and months, particularly as you work away through the
rest of autumn and in two winter. Of course, of
course there'll be cold snaps and we'll start to see frost,
but I think the message is that we're probably going
to see less of those than what is typical as
we mature through autumn and into the start of winter.
(06:37):
The early outlook for winter, and this is not our
official outlook, but if you're looking for some tea leaves here,
we'll probably see I probably see warmer than usual temperatures.
We're favoring east to northeasterly winds as we progress through
autumn and into winter. Doesn't mean every week will be
east to northeast, just that'll probably that'll be a theme.
And look, the wind ain't coming from the south, part
(06:58):
of my grammar, it ain't gonna get cold. So that's
how things are lining up. We'll obviously keep a look
at that. Actually, we had some new climate data command,
so I have to hand up the phone and scour
through that, and maybe when we talk next time we'll
have that. I'm off a few days next week, Jamie,
so if we want to talk, let's talk Monday or Tuesday.
Speaker 1 (07:14):
Okay, mate, you go, Well, there we go. Chris Brendolino
from newa
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