April 13, 2025 • 5 mins
Monday’s resident weather expert on another Easter storm coming our way. But will it break the back of the North Island drought?
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Phil Duncan, I've run out a run and keating. Well
there he goes, but I'll head to you. How big
a storm is this going to be this easter. It's
not going to be another Wahena storm?
Speaker 2 (00:09):
Is it Gooday? No, it's not. But it is a
nasty looking storm at the moment. It's up in the tropics,
right over Vanawatu, and it's not a storm up there.
It's a tropical depression. It's got a moderate chance of
becoming a cyclone, but it probably won't become a tropical
cyclone because it's heading southwards and so it runs out
(00:29):
of the tropical conditions to make it form, but then
it runs into You mentioned the Wahini. The reason why
that was interesting was because when that formed, we had
an X cyclone mixing with a cold front. In this case,
we've got a low pressure system coming down and mixing
with colder air. So it is going to see that
low deepen. But part of the reason we're going to
see such heavy rain and strong winds is actually due
(00:51):
to high pressure that is exiting the country and booming
out and it slows down the rain, so therefore it
lifts up the totals and carriages are squash zone between
those two air pressure systems. So we've got a lot
of strong northeasteries coming through, especially Wednesday and Thursday. For
the top half of the North Island. We're damaging winds
along with that heavy rain. I possible likely.
Speaker 1 (01:13):
Exactly Okay, Well, the good news will be for the
North Island if they can get some meaningful rain and
a break that I'm having a shock at today, break
the back of the drought. And I'm looking at the
Kneewa map and I'm going to come back to the
we're in the Mets service. Well, the South Island's just
about totally clear. It's good now, yes, and.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
We've still got parts of the North Island that are dry.
And so the rain that we had on April third
and fourth, which was very good rain and helped a
lot of those dry and drought regions, but it wasn't
enough to sort of declare, oh, that's the drought's over.
I'm hosedly after this event we are in a position
to say I don't think we've got a drought anymore,
but we'll have to wait and see. But at this
stage it looks as though many of those dry areas
(01:54):
are going to the some bit of rain at the
end of the week or middle to later part of
the week, followed by thunderstorms and showers going into the
weekend as well, which will bring another person of release.
But at the same time, the second half of the
Easter weekend looks a lot more settled to those that
are gone away and making the most of it.
Speaker 1 (02:11):
Yeah, travelers, well that's good news for the travelers. Just
going back in time, wey Haney, what year was that
I'm going to go with nineteen sixty eight?
Speaker 2 (02:19):
Am, I was going to say sixty eight as well,
Let's go.
Speaker 1 (02:22):
With Easter nineteen sixty eight. There's so many interesting stories
around this tragic event, and yeah, I'm getting the thumbs
up from my fill and producer. More about her in
a moment. So Easter nineteen sixty eight was one of
the biggest storms ever in New Zealand.
Speaker 2 (02:37):
It was that it produced a I believe the strongest
wind recorded, or at least the strongest in one of
our main centers, which was I think around three hundred
kilometers an hour of Wellington, which is just phenomenal. And
the air pressure was very low as well, down to
the nine sixties with that center of that storm. So
that was a that was a big system. That's nothing
like what we've got coming through here. But this storm
(02:59):
does have totential because of what happened the last time
when these tropical systems merged with cold air, especially in
the month of April. It's a bit of an explosive
months when it comes to these sorts of weather systems.
So it's worth keeping a very close eye on Thursday's
travel plans may be changing because I think there could
be some flights canceled and certainly delayed, and maybe some
(03:19):
roads closed as well. So Thursday Friday night, So Thursday,
Thursday night Friday morning could be sort of a bit
of a main risk time.
Speaker 1 (03:27):
For warned is forearmed. Okay, Phil, met service is going
to be merged or taken over by NEE where you've
been banging on about this incessantly, Phil, incessantly for years.
Happy days for you.
Speaker 2 (03:41):
Sort of, we'll wait and see. It's a detail. You
know that it's in the detail, and that's what we've
got to see. Yet coming through the ministers can't answer
really what's going to happen next, how it's going to look,
So until we see that. If it's still the same
Kneewer management running things, I think that's a problem. But
if it's new management or the Met Service management sort
(04:02):
of still running the weather side of things, I think
that's a good thing. But the most critical thing is
open data. If we don't get that, government agencies are
still going to have to keep being either blocked from
accessing data that we've all paid for or they have
to pay double triple again for it. So I hope
that the government does actually change up and freshen up
the management.
Speaker 1 (04:22):
Have we had massive duplication when it comes to our
weather forecasting services, and I know that they are doing
sort of different jobs, but six hundred at me, you
were three hundred of the Met Service.
Speaker 2 (04:33):
The bottom is they don't me. We won't actually be
transparent about what they're doing under OIA, through the Herald,
through us, through the listener, and so no one really
knows there's such a huge or black black cloud, if
you like, hanging over me will weather, what it cost,
why it was done, all that sort of stuff. So
I think there's a really good opportunity to come from
this to match the rest of the modern world. But
(04:55):
if we still keep it as the Old Boys Club
as it is now, then, I don't think much will
change other than a logo some of you paint.
Speaker 1 (05:01):
Okay, Phil Duncan, thank you very much for your tim
Phil Duncan, I've run out a run and keating. Well
there he goes, but I'll head to you. How big
a storm is this going to be this easter. It's
not going to be another Wahena storm?
Speaker 2 (00:09):
Is it Gooday? No, it's not. But it is a
nasty looking storm at the moment. It's up in the tropics,
right over Vanawatu, and it's not a storm up there.
It's a tropical depression. It's got a moderate chance of
becoming a cyclone, but it probably won't become a tropical
cyclone because it's heading southwards and so it runs out
(00:29):
of the tropical conditions to make it form, but then
it runs into You mentioned the Wahini. The reason why
that was interesting was because when that formed, we had
an X cyclone mixing with a cold front. In this case,
we've got a low pressure system coming down and mixing
with colder air. So it is going to see that
low deepen. But part of the reason we're going to
see such heavy rain and strong winds is actually due
(00:51):
to high pressure that is exiting the country and booming
out and it slows down the rain, so therefore it
lifts up the totals and carriages are squash zone between
those two air pressure systems. So we've got a lot
of strong northeasteries coming through, especially Wednesday and Thursday. For
the top half of the North Island. We're damaging winds
along with that heavy rain. I possible likely.
Speaker 1 (01:13):
Exactly Okay, Well, the good news will be for the
North Island if they can get some meaningful rain and
a break that I'm having a shock at today, break
the back of the drought. And I'm looking at the
Kneewa map and I'm going to come back to the
we're in the Mets service. Well, the South Island's just
about totally clear. It's good now, yes, and.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
We've still got parts of the North Island that are dry.
And so the rain that we had on April third
and fourth, which was very good rain and helped a
lot of those dry and drought regions, but it wasn't
enough to sort of declare, oh, that's the drought's over.
I'm hosedly after this event we are in a position
to say I don't think we've got a drought anymore,
but we'll have to wait and see. But at this
stage it looks as though many of those dry areas
(01:54):
are going to the some bit of rain at the
end of the week or middle to later part of
the week, followed by thunderstorms and showers going into the
weekend as well, which will bring another person of release.
But at the same time, the second half of the
Easter weekend looks a lot more settled to those that
are gone away and making the most of it.
Speaker 1 (02:11):
Yeah, travelers, well that's good news for the travelers. Just
going back in time, wey Haney, what year was that
I'm going to go with nineteen sixty eight?
Speaker 2 (02:19):
Am, I was going to say sixty eight as well,
Let's go.
Speaker 1 (02:22):
With Easter nineteen sixty eight. There's so many interesting stories
around this tragic event, and yeah, I'm getting the thumbs
up from my fill and producer. More about her in
a moment. So Easter nineteen sixty eight was one of
the biggest storms ever in New Zealand.
Speaker 2 (02:37):
It was that it produced a I believe the strongest
wind recorded, or at least the strongest in one of
our main centers, which was I think around three hundred
kilometers an hour of Wellington, which is just phenomenal. And
the air pressure was very low as well, down to
the nine sixties with that center of that storm. So
that was a that was a big system. That's nothing
like what we've got coming through here. But this storm
(02:59):
does have totential because of what happened the last time
when these tropical systems merged with cold air, especially in
the month of April. It's a bit of an explosive
months when it comes to these sorts of weather systems.
So it's worth keeping a very close eye on Thursday's
travel plans may be changing because I think there could
be some flights canceled and certainly delayed, and maybe some
(03:19):
roads closed as well. So Thursday Friday night, So Thursday,
Thursday night Friday morning could be sort of a bit
of a main risk time.
Speaker 1 (03:27):
For warned is forearmed. Okay, Phil, met service is going
to be merged or taken over by NEE where you've
been banging on about this incessantly, Phil, incessantly for years.
Happy days for you.
Speaker 2 (03:41):
Sort of, we'll wait and see. It's a detail. You
know that it's in the detail, and that's what we've
got to see. Yet coming through the ministers can't answer
really what's going to happen next, how it's going to look,
So until we see that. If it's still the same
Kneewer management running things, I think that's a problem. But
if it's new management or the Met Service management sort
(04:02):
of still running the weather side of things, I think
that's a good thing. But the most critical thing is
open data. If we don't get that, government agencies are
still going to have to keep being either blocked from
accessing data that we've all paid for or they have
to pay double triple again for it. So I hope
that the government does actually change up and freshen up
the management.
Speaker 1 (04:22):
Have we had massive duplication when it comes to our
weather forecasting services, and I know that they are doing
sort of different jobs, but six hundred at me, you
were three hundred of the Met Service.
Speaker 2 (04:33):
The bottom is they don't me. We won't actually be
transparent about what they're doing under OIA, through the Herald,
through us, through the listener, and so no one really
knows there's such a huge or black black cloud, if
you like, hanging over me will weather, what it cost,
why it was done, all that sort of stuff. So
I think there's a really good opportunity to come from
this to match the rest of the modern world. But
(04:55):
if we still keep it as the Old Boys Club
as it is now, then, I don't think much will
change other than a logo some of you paint.
Speaker 1 (05:01):
Okay, Phil Duncan, thank you very much for your tim
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