February 20, 2025 • 3 mins
We ask NIWA's weather guy if there's any end in sight to the Big Dry.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Let's rip into it with Chris Brentdelino from newa Chris,
I looked daily at your drought index map. It's the
North Orlands in trouble.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
Yeah, dire straits in terms of lack of rainfall. We've
had a very dry February and that off the heels
of a very dry January. And what we're looking at
by way of the New Zealand drought Index is meteorological
drought in parts of northern and eastern Tenanaki, parts of
the northern Manawatu, in southwest Wakota and around that area
of meteorological drought there is a pretty extensive area of
(00:31):
extremely dry condition. So that's kind of one step below
that meteorological drought designation or I guess condition, And there
is dryness that extend all the way up to the Kaipra,
western and southwest Northland as well as a good chunk
of Auckland and down toward the Wellington area. So it
is dry man and unfortunately we are not seeing any
(00:53):
strang and signals from meaningful rain. Yes, you know a
bit of rain today, Jammie. I'm just looking at the
radar and there are some pretty beefy showers right now
approaching New Plymouth from the west and northwest and they're
on toll Madornui. But look, this is you know, if
you're a billion dollars in the hole, sure a thousand
dollars scratchy is great, but you need more. And unfortunately,
(01:16):
after today, it doesn't look very good in terms of
rainfall prospect.
Speaker 1 (01:19):
Fore warned is forearmed. And I know that you've been
talking to MPI thinks so serious when they start talking
to you. So your advice to farmers who are maybe
sitting on the fence and hoping things come right in
terms of drynesses probably act now, is it?
Speaker 2 (01:36):
Yeah, do what you gotta do to you know, to look,
try to imagine yourself in a situation where there has
been maybe some very minimal improvement today, that's good, But
what happens if there is very little rain after today
for the next week to two weeks, maybe longer. I'm
not saying there'll be zero rain, but you know, we
got to remember this is something to keep in mind.
(01:57):
I'm sure farmers are aware of this. This time of
the year, we're still losing anywhere from four to as
much as five or six millimeters per day to the atmosphere,
potential evappo transferration, ra so pets. So just you know,
let's take the middle of the road. Let's take five
millimeters and over ten days, that's fifty millimeters of moisture.
So if you don't get fifty millimeters of rain in
(02:20):
ten days or thereabouts, you're you know, you're you're not
breaking even so we're not going to see a lot
of rain. I think the next ten days we'll be
lucky for areas in the UH in parts of the
I guess let's say Tenanaki and Waikato and Manawa two.
If you're lucky, you may get ten, fifteen, twenty millimeters
of rain. But a lot of that's actually going to
(02:41):
come today. So the drawing has continues to think about
what happens on farm when commissions like this have happened
in the past. And this is the dry as it's
been right now. I've looked at the some of the
drought in decease going back to twenty twenty. So the
last time it was this dry or worse was February
twenty twenty in New Plymouth and parts of Tetanaki some
places maybe a few years back now five. So you know,
(03:04):
think back maybe to that time what happened on farm
and think about, you know, what was your response in
doing that again and maybe doing things differently if things
didn't work out for you. So yeah, and unfortunately as
it working to March, it doesn't look much better. Look
dryness will be a theme. High pressure is going to
basically take up shop over pretty much the entire country
(03:26):
in North Island will be these constant what we call
ridge replacements. So a ridge comes in from the Tasman,
it sets up shop, it does drift east, and when
it does drift east, that's our little window to get
a little rang with the front in and then we
get another high coming in replacing that that ridge replacement.
So that pattern looks to kind of prevail right through
the first week ten days of March at least.
Speaker 1 (03:45):
Chris Brian Delaine, I thanks for it's on
Let's rip into it with Chris Brentdelino from newa Chris,
I looked daily at your drought index map. It's the
North Orlands in trouble.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
Yeah, dire straits in terms of lack of rainfall. We've
had a very dry February and that off the heels
of a very dry January. And what we're looking at
by way of the New Zealand drought Index is meteorological
drought in parts of northern and eastern Tenanaki, parts of
the northern Manawatu, in southwest Wakota and around that area
of meteorological drought there is a pretty extensive area of
(00:31):
extremely dry condition. So that's kind of one step below
that meteorological drought designation or I guess condition, And there
is dryness that extend all the way up to the Kaipra,
western and southwest Northland as well as a good chunk
of Auckland and down toward the Wellington area. So it
is dry man and unfortunately we are not seeing any
(00:53):
strang and signals from meaningful rain. Yes, you know a
bit of rain today, Jammie. I'm just looking at the
radar and there are some pretty beefy showers right now
approaching New Plymouth from the west and northwest and they're
on toll Madornui. But look, this is you know, if
you're a billion dollars in the hole, sure a thousand
dollars scratchy is great, but you need more. And unfortunately,
(01:16):
after today, it doesn't look very good in terms of
rainfall prospect.
Speaker 1 (01:19):
Fore warned is forearmed. And I know that you've been
talking to MPI thinks so serious when they start talking
to you. So your advice to farmers who are maybe
sitting on the fence and hoping things come right in
terms of drynesses probably act now, is it?
Speaker 2 (01:36):
Yeah, do what you gotta do to you know, to look,
try to imagine yourself in a situation where there has
been maybe some very minimal improvement today, that's good, But
what happens if there is very little rain after today
for the next week to two weeks, maybe longer. I'm
not saying there'll be zero rain, but you know, we
got to remember this is something to keep in mind.
(01:57):
I'm sure farmers are aware of this. This time of
the year, we're still losing anywhere from four to as
much as five or six millimeters per day to the atmosphere,
potential evappo transferration, ra so pets. So just you know,
let's take the middle of the road. Let's take five
millimeters and over ten days, that's fifty millimeters of moisture.
So if you don't get fifty millimeters of rain in
(02:20):
ten days or thereabouts, you're you know, you're you're not
breaking even so we're not going to see a lot
of rain. I think the next ten days we'll be
lucky for areas in the UH in parts of the
I guess let's say Tenanaki and Waikato and Manawa two.
If you're lucky, you may get ten, fifteen, twenty millimeters
of rain. But a lot of that's actually going to
(02:41):
come today. So the drawing has continues to think about
what happens on farm when commissions like this have happened
in the past. And this is the dry as it's
been right now. I've looked at the some of the
drought in decease going back to twenty twenty. So the
last time it was this dry or worse was February
twenty twenty in New Plymouth and parts of Tetanaki some
places maybe a few years back now five. So you know,
(03:04):
think back maybe to that time what happened on farm
and think about, you know, what was your response in
doing that again and maybe doing things differently if things
didn't work out for you. So yeah, and unfortunately as
it working to March, it doesn't look much better. Look
dryness will be a theme. High pressure is going to
basically take up shop over pretty much the entire country
(03:26):
in North Island will be these constant what we call
ridge replacements. So a ridge comes in from the Tasman,
it sets up shop, it does drift east, and when
it does drift east, that's our little window to get
a little rang with the front in and then we
get another high coming in replacing that that ridge replacement.
So that pattern looks to kind of prevail right through
the first week ten days of March at least.
Speaker 1 (03:45):
Chris Brian Delaine, I thanks for it's on
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