April 22, 2025 • 9 mins
The general manager for RaboResearch, Australia and New Zealand, updates the US/Trump/China trade war and the container freight situation in the Red Sea area.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
We're after Sydney.
Speaker 2 (00:01):
Now on the country there we find Stefan Vogel GM
for Ravo Research Australia and New Zealand. Good afternoon, Stefano.
But you're a bit warmer in Sydney there than I
am in Donedan.
Speaker 3 (00:12):
Oh, it's a beautiful sunny day. ROWNA wish I could
send you a little bit warmer weather to your frosty nights.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
Yes, honestly, last night I think was the coldest night
I've had of the year. Just a little bit of
what to look forward to later in the year. But no,
you enjoyed the sunshine for me over there. Hey, an
interesting time for you to be involved with Rabo Research,
as I say, is the GM. Obviously you've got one
eye on what's happening in Australia and New Zealand and
(00:38):
one eye what's happening in the US and China with
Trump in the trade war.
Speaker 1 (00:43):
What's the latest from your perspective.
Speaker 3 (00:47):
Well, first of all, it's a little bit like reading
the weather. You think it's going to rain tomorrow and
then suddenly the sunshine and we had it all wrong.
And it's a bit like this was mister Trump as well.
You see him threatening big tariffs comeing in and then
last minute, oops, nothing happens. He changes his mind, he
puts the paws on, and that's actually good news for us.
(01:07):
So I think I've said it in the past already.
We expect that he uses the tariffs largely also to
get much bigger things done in terms of geopolitics, so
as threat of tariffs is actually much more powerful than
implementing those tariffs and somebody having to bear the burden off. Oh, suddenly,
if Canada would face the tariff, maybe there's no vegetables
(01:30):
and meat coming across the border, and my consumers feel it.
So with that, the American President, in our view for now,
is actually in that deal making what he calls so
he always wants to put the pressure up and then
the other side comes in, and this time he said, well,
we actually had seventy to eighty countries calling us asking us, hey,
mister Trump, what can we do for the United States?
How can we talk and what kind of a deal
(01:52):
can we make. That's his at least explanation why he
put a pause on those teriffs that he had threatened.
But if you look at the list of tariffs, there's
pretty much every country in the world and some penguin
islands for those who read the fine print, that are
facing tariffs for that products. But then he said, well,
(02:12):
the scale of it is only half of what they
calculated in the United States products facing that the US
is shipping over into those countries. So for US in
Australia New Zealand, the good news first of all is
we're far away. Were not the key focus of the
kind of changes that Trump is pursuing right now. The
key focus has been first of all on Canada and
(02:34):
Mexico to get them somehow aligned with what he wants,
because clearly, if you're implementing tariffs, the last thing you
want is that Canada imports the product and then it
moves across the Green border into the United States and
bypasses all those tariffs. So that he had to shake
them up a little bit, and that's what he's done
in the first step and the second step. Clearly he's
working against the Chinese, and there's a heavy trade war
(02:57):
obviously brewing. I mean, the tariffs are somewhere in the
ballpark of one hundred and forty percent, which probably bids
most of the trade. But then also once again he
had to figure out, well, if consumers in the United
States walk in and buy a cell phone, it's going
to cost them suddenly the equivalent of three thousand TV
dollars rather than the equivalent of a thousand TV dollars.
(03:18):
So with that, he suddenly also excluded a few products.
So for us right now, we're shipping from New Zealand,
especially meat over there, which is beef, which is sheep meat.
The good news is there is no tariffs on them.
But even if you would in less than ninety days,
when those this pause that he has implemented, if you
really would impose tariffs as planned, he would likely impose
(03:42):
them on many countries. So the Australians where armsitting, would
face it, and we're a heavy competitor in that meat
space for both beef and sheep. The Brazilians would face
it the heavy competitor. So with that, we're sitting kind
of in the same boat as everybody else. And with that,
if you think about it, the ten percent that are threatened,
while it isn't pretty, while it isn't beautiful, it isn't
(04:03):
the end of the trade, and it isn't the end
of the world. So with that, we still expect that
the trade would more or less continuous is and the
ten percent will be somehow commingled into the margin. So
maybe the US consumer will feel slighter piece of it,
Maybe the importer's margin will shrink a little bit, and
maybe the consumer price, oh sorry, the producer price here
(04:23):
would feel it a little bit. But overall I think
ten percent would hopefully be still manageable for most of
the products that we're shipping over into that US market.
Speaker 1 (04:32):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (04:32):
Absolutely, And I must say the likes of Herd Island,
McDonald Islands, the other ones with the penguins, also Norfolk Island,
which somehow attracted twenty nine I think it was percent
tariffs instead of just the standard team.
Speaker 1 (04:45):
Of Australia and New Zealand. You've got to wonder.
Speaker 2 (04:47):
What they've done to Trump to attract such aia those
naughty penguins. So yeah, that for me pretty much summed
up the whole tariff experience. Thought gone onto some and
just others know thought Stefan Vogel GM for RABO Research
Australia and New Zealand. Just right on the line there,
I'm going to take a quick break, but when we
come back, I just want to ask you about the
(05:09):
latest and what's happening in.
Speaker 1 (05:11):
The Red Sea. Welcome back into the country.
Speaker 2 (05:15):
Well, if you've just joined us, Stefan Vogel GM for
RABI Research Australia and New Zealand out of their Sydney
office is with me. We've discussed Trump and the tariffs
in China and the US and those naughty penguins. Stefan,
I just want to look at what's happening a bit
further afield the Red Sea issue there with the Hooties
and Trump and the container ships.
Speaker 1 (05:37):
What's the latest if you're.
Speaker 3 (05:39):
Looking at container fred you remember the big issue actually
over the last couple of months, not only but actually
a year and a half or so has been that
the attacks in the Red Sea from the Hooti pirates
on those container vessels had actually disrupted the trade quite heavily.
And remember it's a short cut from Asia going through
the Red Sea and the Suez can all to Europe
(06:01):
to the east coast of the US. So a third
of the world's container was going through that area. With
the attacks, actually most of the ships had diverted and
that has escalated the container freight rate quite a bit higher.
They've come down quite a bit in the last couple
of months, especially since mister Trump has ramped up the
pressure in the region and said, look, we're going to
(06:24):
attack those and we declare the who DES a terrorist organization.
So for now, the freight rates for containers globally are
still higher than they traditionally were, but we were about
three or four times as high last year around July
when the situation in that redsy area escalated. Since then,
(06:45):
they have come down quite a bit and we're probably
somewhere around one and a half times higher than usual,
So it is substantially lower those freight rates for containers.
But the situation obviously is still ongoing, so the a
lot more military actions happening in the regions. There seems
to be in attentals about the US to assemble more
(07:07):
troops to really not only the US troops but also
troops from the region in other countries to get the
situation more under control. But it's just one side part
of a bigger issue in the region. I mean, the
reason why the houtis are active is actually they say, well,
we are supporting the Hamas and remember there is the
(07:27):
more ongoing between the Hamas and the Israelis. The Iranis
are supporting the weapons that the UTIs are using to
attack the vessels, and clearly there's a lot of discussion
these days around should Israel attack Iran's nuclear facilities. The
US seem to have stopped that. So there's a wider, wider,
(07:49):
bigger kind of military action grewing in the region, and
it is one of the regions I'm looking at actually
very very concerned. If you think about the war in
Ukraine in Russia, as bad as it is, my fear
about a potential conflict in Iran is much bigger. And
that is a situation that I think, as long as
(08:11):
mister Trump will be in place, we have to monitor
that very very carefully because clearly the Iranis so far
have not back down, have not given any positive signs
to the US, but seem to continue to try and
build nuclear weapons, which is something that the US but
also the Israelis and others want to avoid. So with that,
(08:31):
for now, while the situation for container frate is rather calm,
we can look at this region and maybe also expect
that if the escalation is happening, maybe some of the
ships will not go through the areas anymore and that
would once again escalate container freight rates a little bit,
and if they go up again, it makes things more
expensive for everything that we're bringing here into the country,
(08:53):
because pretty much everything we bring into New Zealand comes
into in a container box over But for now as that,
let's enjoy those lower rates.
Speaker 2 (09:01):
Absolutely a very geographical location. We love our containers, we
need them and yeah, if they can stay down, that
would be amazing. Stefan Vogel GM for RABO Research Australia
and New Zealand. Thank you so much for your time.
I believe I will see you in face to face
in a couple of months for the Primary Industry Summit
here in New Zealand.
Speaker 3 (09:22):
Absolutely looking forward to coming over and we'll speak to
you then.
Speaker 1 (09:26):
Thanks so much for your time.
Speaker 3 (09:28):
Thank you, bybye.
We're after Sydney.
Speaker 2 (00:01):
Now on the country there we find Stefan Vogel GM
for Ravo Research Australia and New Zealand. Good afternoon, Stefano.
But you're a bit warmer in Sydney there than I
am in Donedan.
Speaker 3 (00:12):
Oh, it's a beautiful sunny day. ROWNA wish I could
send you a little bit warmer weather to your frosty nights.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
Yes, honestly, last night I think was the coldest night
I've had of the year. Just a little bit of
what to look forward to later in the year. But no,
you enjoyed the sunshine for me over there. Hey, an
interesting time for you to be involved with Rabo Research,
as I say, is the GM. Obviously you've got one
eye on what's happening in Australia and New Zealand and
(00:38):
one eye what's happening in the US and China with
Trump in the trade war.
Speaker 1 (00:43):
What's the latest from your perspective.
Speaker 3 (00:47):
Well, first of all, it's a little bit like reading
the weather. You think it's going to rain tomorrow and
then suddenly the sunshine and we had it all wrong.
And it's a bit like this was mister Trump as well.
You see him threatening big tariffs comeing in and then
last minute, oops, nothing happens. He changes his mind, he
puts the paws on, and that's actually good news for us.
(01:07):
So I think I've said it in the past already.
We expect that he uses the tariffs largely also to
get much bigger things done in terms of geopolitics, so
as threat of tariffs is actually much more powerful than
implementing those tariffs and somebody having to bear the burden off. Oh, suddenly,
if Canada would face the tariff, maybe there's no vegetables
(01:30):
and meat coming across the border, and my consumers feel it.
So with that, the American President, in our view for now,
is actually in that deal making what he calls so
he always wants to put the pressure up and then
the other side comes in, and this time he said, well,
we actually had seventy to eighty countries calling us asking us, hey,
mister Trump, what can we do for the United States?
How can we talk and what kind of a deal
(01:52):
can we make. That's his at least explanation why he
put a pause on those teriffs that he had threatened.
But if you look at the list of tariffs, there's
pretty much every country in the world and some penguin
islands for those who read the fine print, that are
facing tariffs for that products. But then he said, well,
(02:12):
the scale of it is only half of what they
calculated in the United States products facing that the US
is shipping over into those countries. So for US in
Australia New Zealand, the good news first of all is
we're far away. Were not the key focus of the
kind of changes that Trump is pursuing right now. The
key focus has been first of all on Canada and
(02:34):
Mexico to get them somehow aligned with what he wants,
because clearly, if you're implementing tariffs, the last thing you
want is that Canada imports the product and then it
moves across the Green border into the United States and
bypasses all those tariffs. So that he had to shake
them up a little bit, and that's what he's done
in the first step and the second step. Clearly he's
working against the Chinese, and there's a heavy trade war
(02:57):
obviously brewing. I mean, the tariffs are somewhere in the
ballpark of one hundred and forty percent, which probably bids
most of the trade. But then also once again he
had to figure out, well, if consumers in the United
States walk in and buy a cell phone, it's going
to cost them suddenly the equivalent of three thousand TV
dollars rather than the equivalent of a thousand TV dollars.
(03:18):
So with that, he suddenly also excluded a few products.
So for us right now, we're shipping from New Zealand,
especially meat over there, which is beef, which is sheep meat.
The good news is there is no tariffs on them.
But even if you would in less than ninety days,
when those this pause that he has implemented, if you
really would impose tariffs as planned, he would likely impose
(03:42):
them on many countries. So the Australians where armsitting, would
face it, and we're a heavy competitor in that meat
space for both beef and sheep. The Brazilians would face
it the heavy competitor. So with that, we're sitting kind
of in the same boat as everybody else. And with that,
if you think about it, the ten percent that are threatened,
while it isn't pretty, while it isn't beautiful, it isn't
(04:03):
the end of the trade, and it isn't the end
of the world. So with that, we still expect that
the trade would more or less continuous is and the
ten percent will be somehow commingled into the margin. So
maybe the US consumer will feel slighter piece of it,
Maybe the importer's margin will shrink a little bit, and
maybe the consumer price, oh sorry, the producer price here
(04:23):
would feel it a little bit. But overall I think
ten percent would hopefully be still manageable for most of
the products that we're shipping over into that US market.
Speaker 1 (04:32):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (04:32):
Absolutely, And I must say the likes of Herd Island,
McDonald Islands, the other ones with the penguins, also Norfolk Island,
which somehow attracted twenty nine I think it was percent
tariffs instead of just the standard team.
Speaker 1 (04:45):
Of Australia and New Zealand. You've got to wonder.
Speaker 2 (04:47):
What they've done to Trump to attract such aia those
naughty penguins. So yeah, that for me pretty much summed
up the whole tariff experience. Thought gone onto some and
just others know thought Stefan Vogel GM for RABO Research
Australia and New Zealand. Just right on the line there,
I'm going to take a quick break, but when we
come back, I just want to ask you about the
(05:09):
latest and what's happening in.
Speaker 1 (05:11):
The Red Sea. Welcome back into the country.
Speaker 2 (05:15):
Well, if you've just joined us, Stefan Vogel GM for
RABI Research Australia and New Zealand out of their Sydney
office is with me. We've discussed Trump and the tariffs
in China and the US and those naughty penguins. Stefan,
I just want to look at what's happening a bit
further afield the Red Sea issue there with the Hooties
and Trump and the container ships.
Speaker 1 (05:37):
What's the latest if you're.
Speaker 3 (05:39):
Looking at container fred you remember the big issue actually
over the last couple of months, not only but actually
a year and a half or so has been that
the attacks in the Red Sea from the Hooti pirates
on those container vessels had actually disrupted the trade quite heavily.
And remember it's a short cut from Asia going through
the Red Sea and the Suez can all to Europe
(06:01):
to the east coast of the US. So a third
of the world's container was going through that area. With
the attacks, actually most of the ships had diverted and
that has escalated the container freight rate quite a bit higher.
They've come down quite a bit in the last couple
of months, especially since mister Trump has ramped up the
pressure in the region and said, look, we're going to
(06:24):
attack those and we declare the who DES a terrorist organization.
So for now, the freight rates for containers globally are
still higher than they traditionally were, but we were about
three or four times as high last year around July
when the situation in that redsy area escalated. Since then,
(06:45):
they have come down quite a bit and we're probably
somewhere around one and a half times higher than usual,
So it is substantially lower those freight rates for containers.
But the situation obviously is still ongoing, so the a
lot more military actions happening in the regions. There seems
to be in attentals about the US to assemble more
(07:07):
troops to really not only the US troops but also
troops from the region in other countries to get the
situation more under control. But it's just one side part
of a bigger issue in the region. I mean, the
reason why the houtis are active is actually they say, well,
we are supporting the Hamas and remember there is the
(07:27):
more ongoing between the Hamas and the Israelis. The Iranis
are supporting the weapons that the UTIs are using to
attack the vessels, and clearly there's a lot of discussion
these days around should Israel attack Iran's nuclear facilities. The
US seem to have stopped that. So there's a wider, wider,
(07:49):
bigger kind of military action grewing in the region, and
it is one of the regions I'm looking at actually
very very concerned. If you think about the war in
Ukraine in Russia, as bad as it is, my fear
about a potential conflict in Iran is much bigger. And
that is a situation that I think, as long as
(08:11):
mister Trump will be in place, we have to monitor
that very very carefully because clearly the Iranis so far
have not back down, have not given any positive signs
to the US, but seem to continue to try and
build nuclear weapons, which is something that the US but
also the Israelis and others want to avoid. So with that,
(08:31):
for now, while the situation for container frate is rather calm,
we can look at this region and maybe also expect
that if the escalation is happening, maybe some of the
ships will not go through the areas anymore and that
would once again escalate container freight rates a little bit,
and if they go up again, it makes things more
expensive for everything that we're bringing here into the country,
(08:53):
because pretty much everything we bring into New Zealand comes
into in a container box over But for now as that,
let's enjoy those lower rates.
Speaker 2 (09:01):
Absolutely a very geographical location. We love our containers, we
need them and yeah, if they can stay down, that
would be amazing. Stefan Vogel GM for RABO Research Australia
and New Zealand. Thank you so much for your time.
I believe I will see you in face to face
in a couple of months for the Primary Industry Summit
here in New Zealand.
Speaker 3 (09:22):
Absolutely looking forward to coming over and we'll speak to
you then.
Speaker 1 (09:26):
Thanks so much for your time.
Speaker 3 (09:28):
Thank you, bybye.
Popular Podcasts
40s and Free Agents: NFL Draft Season
Daniel Jeremiah of Move the Sticks and Gregg Rosenthal of NFL Daily join forces to break down every team's needs this offseason.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang
Ding dong! Join your culture consultants, Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang, on an unforgettable journey into the beating heart of CULTURE. Alongside sizzling special guests, they GET INTO the hottest pop-culture moments of the day and the formative cultural experiences that turned them into Culturistas. Produced by the Big Money Players Network and iHeartRadio.