The Country 30/09/24: Phil Duncan talks to Jamie Mackay

Today we find our Monday Weather Man in Queenstown, lapping up the sunshine, on the last day of September. But what does October have in store for us?  We only want good news!

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:01):
Yep. Chris Christopherson wrote Me and Bobby McGhee not a
bad song, but his version of it is pretty slow
and turgent. I must admit, Phil Duncan, where you were,
Chris Christopherson, man, we were going to play some Luke Combs,
but we thought we'd pay tribute to Chris Christopherson.

Speaker 2 (00:17):
I wasn't, but my parents were fans of his.

Speaker 1 (00:19):
I'm sure, yeah, well he was, remember he was in
It wasn't the first Star is Born that happened in
the fifties, but he did the one with Barbara Streisan,
you know, which has been remade recently with Lady Gaga
and what's the other guy's named, Bradley Cooper?

Speaker 2 (00:34):
All right, I didn't know that.

Speaker 1 (00:35):
Well, there you go. You learn something now. You can
teach me something now. The weather you're in Queenstown. I
was there over the weekend, stunning weekend. There still snow
on the hills. Coronet Peak I think closed for the
season yesterday. The Remarkables is going to apparently stay open
for the school holidays. Still plenty of snow on them there, hills. Phil,

(00:56):
But what about from a farming point of view, September
been the shaka the further south, you go, what do
you got for me for October? I only want good news.

Speaker 2 (01:07):
Well, the good news is that we've got high pressure
over the country today, so at least you know that
most places have got lovely settled weather. The sun's out
of many places and the winds a light. But over
the next couple of days, that high drifts the way
off to the east and as it does that, it
drags down warmer airflows. It gets windyer, especially on Tuesday
afternoon and Wednesday could be some severe gale warnings and

(01:28):
then a bit of low forming in the Tasman And
this is an interesting one because it's going to have
half settled weather, you know, big large dry areas, but
it's also going to be kind of repetitive in other
places with rain. So for now there is a chance
that there could be a wet east to southeasterly for
places like where you are done around the southern eastern
coastline of the South Island Otago, maybe coastal parts of

(01:50):
Southland and Canterbury as well getting that wet weather. It's
some of the rainfall totals are like seventy eighty millimeters
over the coming weeks of those southern areas, but it
may still change. You'll weave it and going sort of
and that's because the low is quite large, and so
sometimes the rain can shift further south or further north.
To keep an eye on your forecasts. But that low

(02:10):
is going to fade away, then we'll get a high
coming back. And as I look into October, we're seeing
sort of a burst of windy westerly, so typical spring
weather and also real variety like we've been seeing for
the last couple of months, where you could have subtropical
normalies one week, a high pressure zone and then next
thing you know, another winter blast coming through. So we're
not done yet with this weather, but hopefully some breaks

(02:30):
for parts of Southend at least.

Speaker 1 (02:33):
I think you're what did you make Phil? And I'm
opening a can of worms here. I don't know why
I'm even doing this because I know what you'll say,
What did you make of the merger between the Met
Service and NIWA.

Speaker 2 (02:44):
I think the government's done the smart move to have
one forecaster for everyone with one single voice out of
the government having two voices that opposed each other made
no sense, So this is the right thing. Hopefully the
Commerce Commission will now be involved and that will ensure
that we'll whatever happens with me where has done the
right way. So I'm very optimistic about it. But there's
still a long way to go yet to get this

(03:05):
legally through all the bills in Parliament and Commerce Commission side.
But yeah, I think it's the right thing. Yeah.

Speaker 1 (03:12):
And while I asked you that question, I was just
buying myself a bit of time filler. I thought you'd
go on for longer to be perfectly honest, I was
just trying to look for the sore moisture deficit map
from your friends at NIEWA. And you know we talked
about the south of the of the South Highland. It's
been a bit of a rice paddy. The last thing
they need, believe you me, is another seventy mills of rain.

(03:33):
But then I'm looking at the real the dry areas
or dryish areas historically anyhow, with sore moisture. We know
all about North Canterbury. But then there's a patch showing
up in Hawk Spain now.

Speaker 2 (03:46):
Yeah, Hawks Bay and even parts of Bay are plenty
starting to show that sign of the early spring weather
pattern where the westerlies kick in and they start to
try up the yeast. So we're certainly seeing that around
the North Island saw On moisture levels are starting to
tip down to normal after being wetter than normal. And
I don't think it'll take long to see some places
going even drier despite that low coming in, because the

(04:07):
low is going to have you know, these large lows
have broken fractured rainbands. But we're in a typical messy
spring this year. It's more of a classic spring where
we get more surprises than usual. And as a forecaster,
I love that, but as farm as it does mean
that those of you in the south still a risk
of these winter storms or winter blasts coming through right
through the month of October. That risk is still with

(04:28):
us now.

Speaker 1 (04:28):
One of those aforementioned forecasters, either they were or Met Service,
I can't remember who Phil came out and said they
expect that October to be a warmer than average months.
Do you buy into that?

Speaker 2 (04:39):
Yeah? I do. I think that we're already seeing that
at the moment, even today, many parts of the country
are above average, not necessarily by huge amounts, but above
average by a degree or two, and as high as
it departs over the next day. In turn, we get
these windy Norwesters that's going to be partially subtropical, so
you get these subtropical airflows. You know, they're going to
come in more and more and we'll get fewer and

(05:00):
of those sub antarctic ones. So that's good news for
you and Tomeden, good news for those in Southland, good
news for our mate Blocker and everyone else down there
that that weather should start to be a little kinder
at times. But we're not yet finished with the with
the Southwesters out of the Southern Ocean. It is very
stormy in the Southern Ocean this year, much more than usual.
That's why we've got that elevated risk of was winter blasts.

Speaker 1 (05:20):
And talking about high temperatures, how hot was it in
the nightclubs of Queenstown last night fell? You would have
been clubbing it into the early hours, were you.

Speaker 2 (05:30):
Well, we went to the ice bar where it's the
opposite minus eight degrees inside it. So my mum's down
here for a eightieth. We took her into the ice
bar and that was an experience.

Speaker 1 (05:42):
Yeah, I'm sure it was. Were you on the ends
law as well?

Speaker 2 (05:46):
Yeah, we went on the ennslaw we went out that
it was amazing going over to the to the farm
for the dinner. That was something just mind blowingly amazing. Yeah. Lovely, lovely,
lovely part of the country, honestly.

Speaker 1 (05:55):
Oh yeah, it's stunning part of the country, the most
stunning part of the country, no doubt about it. Yeah,
Phil Duncan. And congratulations to your mum for reaching eighty
nine out.

Speaker 2 (06:06):
I will pass that on to my mother. Thank you,
good on you.

Speaker 1 (06:08):
There we go from weatherwatch dot co dot in zed
Monday's wether Man here on the country