November 5, 2024 • 8 mins
Three big business issues of the week.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
From the cricket field to the cow shed. It's the
Country Sport Breakfast with Brian Kelly on Gold Sport. You're
trying to say, Oh, yeah, is business is business at.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
The business side, we get down to business catch up
with Managing director of Iron Duke Partners who is back
home in his own bed, phil O Riley. Morning fell.
Speaker 1 (00:23):
Yeah, you're right, So it's a strange thing. I got
out of my own bed this morning.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
That's right, it would have been nice. I mean, you've
been all over Europe, all over South America in the
last couple of weeks.
Speaker 1 (00:31):
Yeah, still just feeling a little bit jet leg. Busy
week this week of course for all sorts of things,
hapt me. So that's good to be back, to be
back in the county. I must start off to Australia
in a few weeks time, but that's the last month
toward the end of the year. So good to be
back in my time, Joe.
Speaker 2 (00:43):
Yeah, fantastic. All right, Well, a couple of things to
talk about. First off, the new trade deals signed between
New Zealand and the Gulf States. Do we actually need
much do much business there?
Speaker 1 (00:54):
We actually we don't do a hell of a lot
but we will do more because of this deal. If
you look at great Story, this is number of years
ago than Banama is the capital of Bahrain, and I'm
having dinner with a pretty senior business person from the
Bahrain Business Confederation and he sees in out lamb and
it's a very beautiful restaurant. I see, where's the lamb from?
He said, New Zealand of course, And so you know,
(01:14):
there's a real loyalty to New Zealand product in that
part of the world. We're good friends with them. And
of course you've got some of the richest parts of
the world Dubai, rb Dhrby as they say, Bahrain, some
seriously wealthy individuals and people there, and so you know,
I think I think it will be good and particularly
good for our lamb and I think some of our
red meat exporters. But this is really about creating choices.
(01:35):
If you look at what's going to happen in the
US election, we'll talk about that in a minute, but
you know it's one of the doubt outcomes of the
election is going to be increased geopolitical tension between the
US and China, and of course that bounces back to
US and so our great. In fact, negotiators have been
negotiating the deals and ordered to given yous in an
exporter of some choice, and that's the choice to evacuating
(01:56):
into some of the wealthiest markets and wallets in the world.
So good on m Fat And I think it will
give us an opportunity to do better in that market
and a real opportunity for some of our traditional agricultural
exports into that market. So good on m Fat and
good on the Minister for signing it.
Speaker 2 (02:11):
And I think there's a few trade delegations also working
hard in China at the moment too.
Speaker 1 (02:15):
Yeah, there's a lot going on. I mean there was
a trade delegation in Sampoland. I couldn't join it. Those
in different parts of the city. But now there's a
lot going on. And you know, trade delegations by themselves
don't do a heck of a lot, because if you're
going to be in a market, you need to be
in the market, you need to be there, you need
to spend time there, as I found out over my career.
But these trade deals are great because they do create
(02:36):
they're sort of the trade delegations because they'll create heat
and light. Me will report on them. Business people will
turn up to the cocktail function revel might be the
Minister gets to say a few words. So they are
very good and they don't decry them, but they're not
not a substitute for actually being in the market and
getting on and getting to know people, which I know
the great exporters do.
Speaker 2 (02:56):
It's such an unemployment it continues to rise in some
banks as suggesting it goes past five percent. I thought
the economy was improving. Why is unemployment still rising for there?
Speaker 1 (03:07):
Yes, this is the in same thing you've got. Also,
you've got company liquidations rising as well, so more companies
are falling over it. And you've seen Bryan business confidence
now at ten year at a one decade high? Extraordinary,
isn't it? What's going on in the real e company
which would make businesses feel confident. It's because they're looking forward.
They're looking out into twenty twenty five and seeing that
hopefully conditions will be better. Consumer confidence still pretty low
(03:31):
and effect dropping because you know, those interest rates haven't
gone through yet to many punt as, they're still paying
those high interstrates. Because I don't do on fixed terms.
But unemployment's a classic lag indicator of a recession. So
if you're a business person, you know, not only are
you're a good human, you're trying to keep good people
on staff because they've got families to feed and so on.
But it's also logical to get rid of a staff.
(03:51):
To make a staff member redundant, it's probably quite expensive,
and to rehire them later on, it's very expensive. You
need to find them and then hire them and train
them and skill them and so on. Most employers will
try to hold onto their staff just as long as
they possibly can. And well, I think it's happening through
a number of employers right now, particularly small businesses, even
TV and Z those you'll see in the next few days.
You know, they've gone through everything, they trade everything they
(04:13):
can to hold on to staff, and business conditions simply
are getting in the way, hurting their balance sheet, maybe
hurting the equity and their home if there are a
small business, and so on. So they've got to make
the hard decisions, and those hard decisions will continue on
I suspect into probably the second quarter of next year
as a matter of factors. Those because we even if
the economy turns around, it takes a while that to
flow through the balance sheets into income for businesses. So
(04:35):
sad but true that the unemployment rate and business liquidations
and closures will continue to increase for a while. Yet
hopefully they'll turn around quite quickly into about the second
quarter of next year. But you know, for now, it's
still pretty hard bread for some people, pain.
Speaker 2 (04:48):
Before the gain. All right, let's touch on the US
presidential elections. We've got about an hour and forty six
to go until the first results are in. What do
you think is going to happen film.
Speaker 1 (04:57):
Well, anybody that tells you they know it's light, of course,
because nobo know those holes and those and those seven
sort of swing states that everybody talks about have been
in the margin of era for the last six months now,
history of tie, and so you're really talking about and
by the way, to other things that haven't been quite
so well reported. One is it's quite likely we won't
know the results for some days because some of those
(05:18):
ballots and some of those swing states will take a
wild piece of only, for example, will take a while
to come through, and that might lead to, you know,
accusations of wrongdoing and rioting and so on. The other
thing that's going on The course is we're also voting
that the US is also voting for the Senate and
the House and the House of Representatives, and it's and
depending on how those votes go, you could get a
President Trump Paul Harris. That's that's kind of hamstrung a
(05:41):
bit by a Senator or a House of Representatives that's
not on their side. So there's a lot to play
for that, but not necessary. You're not necessarily much about well,
i'd said he was this if if campaigns win elections,
then Trump wins, because he said the campaign, by far,
he's motivated his base. He settled, right. I think there
was base. We find them struggled also to some of us.
But you certainly motivated at the base. But if turnout
(06:03):
win selections, then then Harris might win, because I suspect
women will turn out. This is this is a elition
as much as anything about women's rights, which is sure
anything to say in the day and age. But it's
true she might motivate her base of the of the elderly.
You want to get out and vote for her. And
as an election watcher's not going to put myself through
(06:24):
the pain of watching it all in detail. I'm gonna
I'm going to can catch up with it again to
another a busy day head. I'm going to catch up
with the interne once the trends start coming through and
see what's going on. So who knows. The short point
is there, Brian, Neither outcome is good for us. You'll
see tensions of trying to rise. Both of them are
going to be protectionist presidents. Both of them are going
to not be all that interested in the multilateral system
(06:44):
or pre trade deals or lowering barriers to the US market.
So neither outcome is particularly good for US as a
trading nation.
Speaker 2 (06:52):
I must say, it's going to be fascinating. And I
know you're a lover of Formula one. You would have
been impressed by Liam Lawson's performance from the week in
the Brazilian Grand Prix.
Speaker 1 (07:01):
Haven't get they cut good once? Sing Because I woke
up about four o'clock and look at the look at
the results of qualifying and saw a lowso the P
five and I got out of bed and and watched it.
I paid for that later on the day, but because
I was very tired, but I watched what an extraordinary
race and just amazing and I just love the way
helped keep those elbows out wide for Hamilton and Picar
Petts and the last last stands without racing himself some points,
(07:24):
just great racing and you can see why Red Bull
rates him so highly, and you know all all the
what all to play for him the extra three races
of course as he as he goes forward and gets
the big seat next year.
Speaker 2 (07:35):
I just get the feeling you will. I think he's
he's impressed, I'm sure, and the and the Grand Prix
he's been competing in so far this year has and.
Speaker 1 (07:41):
He and he's The short point is he continually beats
a Yuki Sonoda other than last week, and he also
and she Copais can't get past them, and Peris isn't
the better car. So you just think you'd hope so,
but you know, you just know Promula one is not
just about supporting prowess and the driver skills. It's also
about money, and it's about who knows who, and it's
(08:01):
about sponsorships and it's about public support and so on.
So that's what makes it so fascinating. Of course, it's
not just a sport, it's also literally a circus. So yeah,
but I hope so I mean, it's a great vote
of confidence for those who don't have all the mining
in the world. Just have great skill till she gets
to the top, and he would be an indication of
that and a great example to other young kids thinking
about getting into motorsport to say you don't need billionaire pearance.
(08:23):
If you're that good, maybe you get through and maybe
actually make it to the very top. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (08:27):
Absolutely, go on. You feel nice to catch up mate,
Have a.
Speaker 1 (08:29):
Great day, Thanks, Beka.
Speaker 2 (08:30):
Cheers Hello, Riley, Managing Director of Iron Duke Pat
From the cricket field to the cow shed. It's the
Country Sport Breakfast with Brian Kelly on Gold Sport. You're
trying to say, Oh, yeah, is business is business at.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
The business side, we get down to business catch up
with Managing director of Iron Duke Partners who is back
home in his own bed, phil O Riley. Morning fell.
Speaker 1 (00:23):
Yeah, you're right, So it's a strange thing. I got
out of my own bed this morning.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
That's right, it would have been nice. I mean, you've
been all over Europe, all over South America in the
last couple of weeks.
Speaker 1 (00:31):
Yeah, still just feeling a little bit jet leg. Busy
week this week of course for all sorts of things,
hapt me. So that's good to be back, to be
back in the county. I must start off to Australia
in a few weeks time, but that's the last month
toward the end of the year. So good to be
back in my time, Joe.
Speaker 2 (00:43):
Yeah, fantastic. All right, Well, a couple of things to
talk about. First off, the new trade deals signed between
New Zealand and the Gulf States. Do we actually need
much do much business there?
Speaker 1 (00:54):
We actually we don't do a hell of a lot
but we will do more because of this deal. If
you look at great Story, this is number of years
ago than Banama is the capital of Bahrain, and I'm
having dinner with a pretty senior business person from the
Bahrain Business Confederation and he sees in out lamb and
it's a very beautiful restaurant. I see, where's the lamb from?
He said, New Zealand of course, And so you know,
(01:14):
there's a real loyalty to New Zealand product in that
part of the world. We're good friends with them. And
of course you've got some of the richest parts of
the world Dubai, rb Dhrby as they say, Bahrain, some
seriously wealthy individuals and people there, and so you know,
I think I think it will be good and particularly
good for our lamb and I think some of our
red meat exporters. But this is really about creating choices.
(01:35):
If you look at what's going to happen in the
US election, we'll talk about that in a minute, but
you know it's one of the doubt outcomes of the
election is going to be increased geopolitical tension between the
US and China, and of course that bounces back to
US and so our great. In fact, negotiators have been
negotiating the deals and ordered to given yous in an
exporter of some choice, and that's the choice to evacuating
(01:56):
into some of the wealthiest markets and wallets in the world.
So good on m Fat And I think it will
give us an opportunity to do better in that market
and a real opportunity for some of our traditional agricultural
exports into that market. So good on m Fat and
good on the Minister for signing it.
Speaker 2 (02:11):
And I think there's a few trade delegations also working
hard in China at the moment too.
Speaker 1 (02:15):
Yeah, there's a lot going on. I mean there was
a trade delegation in Sampoland. I couldn't join it. Those
in different parts of the city. But now there's a
lot going on. And you know, trade delegations by themselves
don't do a heck of a lot, because if you're
going to be in a market, you need to be
in the market, you need to be there, you need
to spend time there, as I found out over my career.
But these trade deals are great because they do create
(02:36):
they're sort of the trade delegations because they'll create heat
and light. Me will report on them. Business people will
turn up to the cocktail function revel might be the
Minister gets to say a few words. So they are
very good and they don't decry them, but they're not
not a substitute for actually being in the market and
getting on and getting to know people, which I know
the great exporters do.
Speaker 2 (02:56):
It's such an unemployment it continues to rise in some
banks as suggesting it goes past five percent. I thought
the economy was improving. Why is unemployment still rising for there?
Speaker 1 (03:07):
Yes, this is the in same thing you've got. Also,
you've got company liquidations rising as well, so more companies
are falling over it. And you've seen Bryan business confidence
now at ten year at a one decade high? Extraordinary,
isn't it? What's going on in the real e company
which would make businesses feel confident. It's because they're looking forward.
They're looking out into twenty twenty five and seeing that
hopefully conditions will be better. Consumer confidence still pretty low
(03:31):
and effect dropping because you know, those interest rates haven't
gone through yet to many punt as, they're still paying
those high interstrates. Because I don't do on fixed terms.
But unemployment's a classic lag indicator of a recession. So
if you're a business person, you know, not only are
you're a good human, you're trying to keep good people
on staff because they've got families to feed and so on.
But it's also logical to get rid of a staff.
(03:51):
To make a staff member redundant, it's probably quite expensive,
and to rehire them later on, it's very expensive. You
need to find them and then hire them and train
them and skill them and so on. Most employers will
try to hold onto their staff just as long as
they possibly can. And well, I think it's happening through
a number of employers right now, particularly small businesses, even
TV and Z those you'll see in the next few days.
You know, they've gone through everything, they trade everything they
(04:13):
can to hold on to staff, and business conditions simply
are getting in the way, hurting their balance sheet, maybe
hurting the equity and their home if there are a
small business, and so on. So they've got to make
the hard decisions, and those hard decisions will continue on
I suspect into probably the second quarter of next year
as a matter of factors. Those because we even if
the economy turns around, it takes a while that to
flow through the balance sheets into income for businesses. So
(04:35):
sad but true that the unemployment rate and business liquidations
and closures will continue to increase for a while. Yet
hopefully they'll turn around quite quickly into about the second
quarter of next year. But you know, for now, it's
still pretty hard bread for some people, pain.
Speaker 2 (04:48):
Before the gain. All right, let's touch on the US
presidential elections. We've got about an hour and forty six
to go until the first results are in. What do
you think is going to happen film.
Speaker 1 (04:57):
Well, anybody that tells you they know it's light, of course,
because nobo know those holes and those and those seven
sort of swing states that everybody talks about have been
in the margin of era for the last six months now,
history of tie, and so you're really talking about and
by the way, to other things that haven't been quite
so well reported. One is it's quite likely we won't
know the results for some days because some of those
(05:18):
ballots and some of those swing states will take a
wild piece of only, for example, will take a while
to come through, and that might lead to, you know,
accusations of wrongdoing and rioting and so on. The other
thing that's going on The course is we're also voting
that the US is also voting for the Senate and
the House and the House of Representatives, and it's and
depending on how those votes go, you could get a
President Trump Paul Harris. That's that's kind of hamstrung a
(05:41):
bit by a Senator or a House of Representatives that's
not on their side. So there's a lot to play
for that, but not necessary. You're not necessarily much about well,
i'd said he was this if if campaigns win elections,
then Trump wins, because he said the campaign, by far,
he's motivated his base. He settled, right. I think there
was base. We find them struggled also to some of us.
But you certainly motivated at the base. But if turnout
(06:03):
win selections, then then Harris might win, because I suspect
women will turn out. This is this is a elition
as much as anything about women's rights, which is sure
anything to say in the day and age. But it's
true she might motivate her base of the of the elderly.
You want to get out and vote for her. And
as an election watcher's not going to put myself through
(06:24):
the pain of watching it all in detail. I'm gonna
I'm going to can catch up with it again to
another a busy day head. I'm going to catch up
with the interne once the trends start coming through and
see what's going on. So who knows. The short point
is there, Brian, Neither outcome is good for us. You'll
see tensions of trying to rise. Both of them are
going to be protectionist presidents. Both of them are going
to not be all that interested in the multilateral system
(06:44):
or pre trade deals or lowering barriers to the US market.
So neither outcome is particularly good for US as a
trading nation.
Speaker 2 (06:52):
I must say, it's going to be fascinating. And I
know you're a lover of Formula one. You would have
been impressed by Liam Lawson's performance from the week in
the Brazilian Grand Prix.
Speaker 1 (07:01):
Haven't get they cut good once? Sing Because I woke
up about four o'clock and look at the look at
the results of qualifying and saw a lowso the P
five and I got out of bed and and watched it.
I paid for that later on the day, but because
I was very tired, but I watched what an extraordinary
race and just amazing and I just love the way
helped keep those elbows out wide for Hamilton and Picar
Petts and the last last stands without racing himself some points,
(07:24):
just great racing and you can see why Red Bull
rates him so highly, and you know all all the
what all to play for him the extra three races
of course as he as he goes forward and gets
the big seat next year.
Speaker 2 (07:35):
I just get the feeling you will. I think he's
he's impressed, I'm sure, and the and the Grand Prix
he's been competing in so far this year has and.
Speaker 1 (07:41):
He and he's The short point is he continually beats
a Yuki Sonoda other than last week, and he also
and she Copais can't get past them, and Peris isn't
the better car. So you just think you'd hope so,
but you know, you just know Promula one is not
just about supporting prowess and the driver skills. It's also
about money, and it's about who knows who, and it's
(08:01):
about sponsorships and it's about public support and so on.
So that's what makes it so fascinating. Of course, it's
not just a sport, it's also literally a circus. So yeah,
but I hope so I mean, it's a great vote
of confidence for those who don't have all the mining
in the world. Just have great skill till she gets
to the top, and he would be an indication of
that and a great example to other young kids thinking
about getting into motorsport to say you don't need billionaire pearance.
(08:23):
If you're that good, maybe you get through and maybe
actually make it to the very top. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (08:27):
Absolutely, go on. You feel nice to catch up mate,
Have a.
Speaker 1 (08:29):
Great day, Thanks, Beka.
Speaker 2 (08:30):
Cheers Hello, Riley, Managing Director of Iron Duke Pat
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