July 4, 2024 • 11 mins
While the final results are set to trickle in slowly, the exit poll for the UK election has shown a historic landslide for the Labour Party.
The poll suggests Sir Keir Starmer will be the next Prime Minister of one of our closest allies, with a potential majority of 170 seats, while the ruling Conservative Party is out after 14 years of power, and has suffered their worst ever defeat to boot.
To discuss the seismic change in UK politics, and what it might mean for a Kiwi OE to London, we’re joined now on The Front Page by former New Zealand political journalist turned expat, Henry Cooke.
Follow The Front Page on iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
You can read more about this and other stories in the New Zealand Herald, online at nzherald.co.nz, or tune in to news bulletins across the NZME network.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
Kyoda. I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is a bonus episode
of The Front Page, a daily podcast presented by the
New Zealand Herald. While the final results are set to
trickle in slowly, the exit poll for the UK election
has shown a historic landslide for the Labor Party. The
(00:27):
pole suggests Sir Kurse Darma will be the next Prime
minister of one of our closest allies, with a potential
majority of one hundred and seventy seats, while the ruling
Conservative Party is out after fourteen years of power and
has suffered their worst ever defeat to Boot. To discuss
(00:48):
the seismic change in UK politics and what it might
mean for a Kiwoe to London, we're joined now on
the Front Page by former New Zealand political journalist turned
expat Henry Cook. Henry, how significant is this landslide for Labor.
Speaker 2 (01:07):
It's absolutely huge. Labour been out of power for fourteen years.
Speaker 3 (01:12):
There are a lot of adults who are well into
their working lives who had not seen a Labor government
in their adult lives or maybe even political memory. It's
also should we know that it's not been a gradual
climb back to government for labor since threenty ten. They
lost one of their worst ever election losses in twenty nineteen,
just five years ago that was the last election.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
So this landslide seeming landslide as we're looking at it
right now.
Speaker 3 (01:37):
While it's not quite as strong as maybe some of
the you know, some of the poles of the last
few days have shown, is still a massive, massive, massive
victory for labor just five years after losing so badly,
and a massive victory for Krestar for the income.
Speaker 2 (01:52):
Prime Minister.
Speaker 1 (01:52):
I've seen a lot of commentary actually in the last
week about the fourteen years that broke Britain. Does the
country feel broken to you? How does it feel when
you move to there?
Speaker 3 (02:03):
Line?
Speaker 2 (02:04):
You know, there's been things about the UK that work fine.
Speaker 3 (02:06):
You know, the supermarkets are very competitive and things are
very cheap, but that you can go to Europe very easily,
the air lines are very competitive, but there is the
set I guess the real difference. It's not that things
are broken now, it's that things are getting worse. I
think that's what's what I find different about the UK
versus what least the Newseum when I left, that is
that there was a sense of market kind of a
(02:28):
widely held sense that the best stays of behind them
and the things are getting worse. Whether the selection changes that,
as you know, get to.
Speaker 2 (02:36):
Be said.
Speaker 4 (02:41):
And as big bend strikes ten, the exit poll is
predicting a Labor landslide. Secure Starmer will become Prime Minister
with a majority of around one hundred and seventy seats.
The exit poll predicts that Labor will have captured four
hundred and ten seats, adding two hundred and nine.
Speaker 1 (03:02):
What is Starmer's vision for the UK? Is it going
to be a big shift?
Speaker 2 (03:06):
Big question? You know, the manifest might've had one.
Speaker 3 (03:09):
Hundred and pretty one pages, but it wasn't a particularly
deta out in many things. There are clear sign for its,
things like adding the equal of JST to private school
fees to find more teachers, big planning reform kind of
like what prospression. This is actually to kind of unlocked
housing and other investment in the UK. But it is
not a radical shift vision. You know that they've stuck
(03:31):
to the kind of Tory fiscal being below on on
overall spending things like that. It's definitely a Labor color
of that, you know, I think it's pretty easy to
expect that I'll be generally more spending on how generally
more spending in education, perhaps listing on defense. But they're
all overall not be a kind of seismic sure that
if I was a UK ally or if I was
a UK business person right now, I would not be
(03:52):
worrying about some gigantic shift to the left.
Speaker 1 (03:56):
The elephant in the room, I guess Reform UK looks
set to get to parliament. Is there any concern on
the ground about them?
Speaker 2 (04:03):
So he's Reform UK are having so far an incredible night.
Speaker 3 (04:08):
When we were talking right now, the actual first result
just came in and Reform came thickened and a Labor
health seat. So Labor retained a labor seat, but they
actually lost some.
Speaker 2 (04:16):
Polt to reform. So the Reform, who are usually.
Speaker 3 (04:19):
Seen as basically ruining the election for Tories, are also
eating into Labor vote warring on the ground. Look, it's
all mostly contained within the Conservative Party, who's had a
two caps one tap of the Conservative Party says a
lot of Reformer basically winning over our voters because they're
saying what we should be saying, we should combine with them,
which has some kind of reproachable them where we come together,
(04:39):
and maybe even Nigel Farrage the character of charismatic leader
of reform becomes a Tory and Pete again the Utorian
pe a long time ago. And then there's another cap
that says, basically, we should reject births that we shouldn't,
you know, we should you much closer to the center,
and reform will died down eventually.
Speaker 1 (04:55):
Is it a bit of an incredible shift. I know
that Nigel Farrage didn't he announce that he was running
like three weeks ago.
Speaker 3 (05:00):
Or something, just just when when Russie announced in the
reign and with rets of he remember the election date.
Kind of, he had a very dead week with the
one good thing that happened to him was that Niger
Bryan said, well, oh look I'm not going to get
into this election because I'm too busy kind of being
involved helping Donald Trump when in the US.
Speaker 2 (05:18):
But then kind of about a.
Speaker 3 (05:20):
Week later he actually he suddenly kind of came back.
Speaker 2 (05:23):
To my mind, I'm going to run.
Speaker 5 (05:25):
Yet I have decided I've changed my mind, so I
am I'm going to stand in this election. Perhaps more
important than that, I've made a far bigger decision than that.
But I'm coming back as leader of Reform UK, but
not just for this election campaign. I'm coming back for
(05:48):
the next five years.
Speaker 3 (05:54):
As a pretty incredible result for reform coming from nothing,
coming from from zero seats. But I guess it also
speaks taps less to reformers sheets and also more so
more conservative streams. If you if you know, it's much
harder to find that space on the right when the.
Speaker 2 (06:12):
Other right wing party is very strong.
Speaker 3 (06:14):
But the Tories were so weak but so week before
reform came in, and there's so week now that reform
coming even more week that it opens up in space
much more Realistically.
Speaker 1 (06:22):
We constantly talk about under investment in key infrastructure and
services here in New Zealand and how expensive it is
to turn that ship around. Is labor over there planning
to try and reverse some of those austerity measures.
Speaker 2 (06:36):
To be fair, Austereo is kind of kind of Finnish.
Speaker 3 (06:39):
In twenty nineteen when Boris Johnson won, so the like
the worst of the kind of stopping investing in Britain
UK stuff was more post GFC and kind of tweeting.
Speaker 2 (06:50):
In the twenty fifteen term.
Speaker 3 (06:52):
There is you know, there is there is government money
flowing into various places. Labour definitely will want to spend more,
but not.
Speaker 2 (06:58):
In the immediate term. Right now they're very focused on,
I guess, seeming fiscally responsible.
Speaker 3 (07:04):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (07:05):
And the the investment that.
Speaker 3 (07:07):
The UK needs is you know, in New Zealand you
think about think about a lot of them and roads
and that's definitely a big thing here. It's definitely you know,
LA they have a huge fun to potholes. I think
was based on my biking around London. I think potholes
are actually worse in the UK than in New Zealand.
But it's also in the UK often on on on
kind of mega projects, the kind of mega projects that
(07:28):
I guess most of the governments are largely ditched here,
things like high Speed Term which is a huge rail
project between London and originally Manchester Birmingham, which was you.
Speaker 2 (07:38):
Know, I can't pick up the exact noumer now, but
it's kind of.
Speaker 3 (07:40):
In the hundreds of billions of cost and I don't
see labor immediately following a lot of money into there,
just because well, the UK's destination is worse in New
Zealand's uh. And they have very much promised to not
kind of rock the boat in that area.
Speaker 1 (07:55):
I suppose everyone here, especially in New Zealand and in
your field this as well, that we all know someone
who is living in London or is going to live
in London planning to move over there as their big oe, right.
Is it a good time for KIWI expats to move there?
Do you think what does Starma's Britain look like to
us Kiwi's look?
Speaker 2 (08:17):
I do that.
Speaker 3 (08:17):
I'm in the middle of my oay, so obviously I'm
somewhat pro the moves. I did it before Salmon one
or was even surely favored to win. I I think
as the reasons through open through road to the UK
and not going to najorly change by Starmer at least
maybe you were someone who wanted to work in a
(08:38):
government job which only going to be high a public
center employment. Other than that, I'd say the reasons to
move to the UK, uh, you know, there's so many
things to do, with so many europe to visit.
Speaker 2 (08:48):
That's not going to change. If Sarma does.
Speaker 3 (08:51):
What he wants to do and really raise his wages,
that will be a big change there. So you know
money will be in the UK. But for now, I
fact that that could the immediate future. Your region to
move in the UK is about as good now as
it was to EXCO.
Speaker 1 (09:06):
And finally, drawing on your experience as a political editor
here in New Zealand and then now working over there
during this election, what kind of comparisons have surprised you
between what's happening there and what had happened here last year.
Speaker 2 (09:20):
I mean, there's a lot of similarities in that.
Speaker 3 (09:24):
I think a big part of both labors last twenty
three and the the Tory lost and twenty four here
is around things kind of outside of the government's control
or a little bit of the government's control, around things
like inflation and just wait right, you know what which
is going really really high.
Speaker 2 (09:41):
That stuff just kills governments, you.
Speaker 3 (09:43):
Know, And it's the perception of how you deal with
that problem that is really crucial.
Speaker 2 (09:49):
And both labor avatories, especially Victoria has.
Speaker 3 (09:52):
Really failed to look like they had to handle on
it and look like they are making it better. They
failed on kind of data competence more of an ideology
in terms of difference.
Speaker 2 (10:01):
Is the really huge thing that the method that Forterier
is the electoral system. So obviously it's.
Speaker 3 (10:05):
First past the post here in Ford of MP Whichry
have a New Zealand is that that's them where if
you lose a little bit, you can lose.
Speaker 2 (10:13):
Really really badly.
Speaker 3 (10:14):
So later I know the overall boat year old have
at the end of the night, but it's probably going
to be somewhere around late thirty percent. They are going
to have probably seventy percent of the seats based on that.
Vatories are not going to have anywhere near that. And
when you lose it can get really really bad. And
that's that's the really really difference here that the third
parties here, instead of kind of taking a bit of
(10:35):
their vote but still being kind of a partner, are
kind of really big competitors.
Speaker 1 (10:40):
Thanks for joining us, Henry. That's it for this episode
of The Front Page. You can read more about today's
stories and extensive news coverage at enzid Herald dot co
dot nz. The Front Page is produced by Ethan Sells
and sound engineer Patty Fox. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to
(11:04):
The Front Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts,
and tune in on Monday for another look behind the headlines.
Kyoda. I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is a bonus episode
of The Front Page, a daily podcast presented by the
New Zealand Herald. While the final results are set to
trickle in slowly, the exit poll for the UK election
has shown a historic landslide for the Labor Party. The
(00:27):
pole suggests Sir Kurse Darma will be the next Prime
minister of one of our closest allies, with a potential
majority of one hundred and seventy seats, while the ruling
Conservative Party is out after fourteen years of power and
has suffered their worst ever defeat to Boot. To discuss
(00:48):
the seismic change in UK politics and what it might
mean for a Kiwoe to London, we're joined now on
the Front Page by former New Zealand political journalist turned
expat Henry Cook. Henry, how significant is this landslide for Labor.
Speaker 2 (01:07):
It's absolutely huge. Labour been out of power for fourteen years.
Speaker 3 (01:12):
There are a lot of adults who are well into
their working lives who had not seen a Labor government
in their adult lives or maybe even political memory. It's
also should we know that it's not been a gradual
climb back to government for labor since threenty ten. They
lost one of their worst ever election losses in twenty nineteen,
just five years ago that was the last election.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
So this landslide seeming landslide as we're looking at it
right now.
Speaker 3 (01:37):
While it's not quite as strong as maybe some of
the you know, some of the poles of the last
few days have shown, is still a massive, massive, massive
victory for labor just five years after losing so badly,
and a massive victory for Krestar for the income.
Speaker 2 (01:52):
Prime Minister.
Speaker 1 (01:52):
I've seen a lot of commentary actually in the last
week about the fourteen years that broke Britain. Does the
country feel broken to you? How does it feel when
you move to there?
Speaker 3 (02:03):
Line?
Speaker 2 (02:04):
You know, there's been things about the UK that work fine.
Speaker 3 (02:06):
You know, the supermarkets are very competitive and things are
very cheap, but that you can go to Europe very easily,
the air lines are very competitive, but there is the
set I guess the real difference. It's not that things
are broken now, it's that things are getting worse. I
think that's what's what I find different about the UK
versus what least the Newseum when I left, that is
that there was a sense of market kind of a
(02:28):
widely held sense that the best stays of behind them
and the things are getting worse. Whether the selection changes that,
as you know, get to.
Speaker 2 (02:36):
Be said.
Speaker 4 (02:41):
And as big bend strikes ten, the exit poll is
predicting a Labor landslide. Secure Starmer will become Prime Minister
with a majority of around one hundred and seventy seats.
The exit poll predicts that Labor will have captured four
hundred and ten seats, adding two hundred and nine.
Speaker 1 (03:02):
What is Starmer's vision for the UK? Is it going
to be a big shift?
Speaker 2 (03:06):
Big question? You know, the manifest might've had one.
Speaker 3 (03:09):
Hundred and pretty one pages, but it wasn't a particularly
deta out in many things. There are clear sign for its,
things like adding the equal of JST to private school
fees to find more teachers, big planning reform kind of
like what prospression. This is actually to kind of unlocked
housing and other investment in the UK. But it is
not a radical shift vision. You know that they've stuck
(03:31):
to the kind of Tory fiscal being below on on
overall spending things like that. It's definitely a Labor color
of that, you know, I think it's pretty easy to
expect that I'll be generally more spending on how generally
more spending in education, perhaps listing on defense. But they're
all overall not be a kind of seismic sure that
if I was a UK ally or if I was
a UK business person right now, I would not be
(03:52):
worrying about some gigantic shift to the left.
Speaker 1 (03:56):
The elephant in the room, I guess Reform UK looks
set to get to parliament. Is there any concern on
the ground about them?
Speaker 2 (04:03):
So he's Reform UK are having so far an incredible night.
Speaker 3 (04:08):
When we were talking right now, the actual first result
just came in and Reform came thickened and a Labor
health seat. So Labor retained a labor seat, but they
actually lost some.
Speaker 2 (04:16):
Polt to reform. So the Reform, who are usually.
Speaker 3 (04:19):
Seen as basically ruining the election for Tories, are also
eating into Labor vote warring on the ground. Look, it's
all mostly contained within the Conservative Party, who's had a
two caps one tap of the Conservative Party says a
lot of Reformer basically winning over our voters because they're
saying what we should be saying, we should combine with them,
which has some kind of reproachable them where we come together,
(04:39):
and maybe even Nigel Farrage the character of charismatic leader
of reform becomes a Tory and Pete again the Utorian
pe a long time ago. And then there's another cap
that says, basically, we should reject births that we shouldn't,
you know, we should you much closer to the center,
and reform will died down eventually.
Speaker 1 (04:55):
Is it a bit of an incredible shift. I know
that Nigel Farrage didn't he announce that he was running
like three weeks ago.
Speaker 3 (05:00):
Or something, just just when when Russie announced in the
reign and with rets of he remember the election date.
Kind of, he had a very dead week with the
one good thing that happened to him was that Niger
Bryan said, well, oh look I'm not going to get
into this election because I'm too busy kind of being
involved helping Donald Trump when in the US.
Speaker 2 (05:18):
But then kind of about a.
Speaker 3 (05:20):
Week later he actually he suddenly kind of came back.
Speaker 2 (05:23):
To my mind, I'm going to run.
Speaker 5 (05:25):
Yet I have decided I've changed my mind, so I
am I'm going to stand in this election. Perhaps more
important than that, I've made a far bigger decision than that.
But I'm coming back as leader of Reform UK, but
not just for this election campaign. I'm coming back for
(05:48):
the next five years.
Speaker 3 (05:54):
As a pretty incredible result for reform coming from nothing,
coming from from zero seats. But I guess it also
speaks taps less to reformers sheets and also more so
more conservative streams. If you if you know, it's much
harder to find that space on the right when the.
Speaker 2 (06:12):
Other right wing party is very strong.
Speaker 3 (06:14):
But the Tories were so weak but so week before
reform came in, and there's so week now that reform
coming even more week that it opens up in space
much more Realistically.
Speaker 1 (06:22):
We constantly talk about under investment in key infrastructure and
services here in New Zealand and how expensive it is
to turn that ship around. Is labor over there planning
to try and reverse some of those austerity measures.
Speaker 2 (06:36):
To be fair, Austereo is kind of kind of Finnish.
Speaker 3 (06:39):
In twenty nineteen when Boris Johnson won, so the like
the worst of the kind of stopping investing in Britain
UK stuff was more post GFC and kind of tweeting.
Speaker 2 (06:50):
In the twenty fifteen term.
Speaker 3 (06:52):
There is you know, there is there is government money
flowing into various places. Labour definitely will want to spend more,
but not.
Speaker 2 (06:58):
In the immediate term. Right now they're very focused on,
I guess, seeming fiscally responsible.
Speaker 3 (07:04):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (07:05):
And the the investment that.
Speaker 3 (07:07):
The UK needs is you know, in New Zealand you
think about think about a lot of them and roads
and that's definitely a big thing here. It's definitely you know,
LA they have a huge fun to potholes. I think
was based on my biking around London. I think potholes
are actually worse in the UK than in New Zealand.
But it's also in the UK often on on on
kind of mega projects, the kind of mega projects that
(07:28):
I guess most of the governments are largely ditched here,
things like high Speed Term which is a huge rail
project between London and originally Manchester Birmingham, which was you.
Speaker 2 (07:38):
Know, I can't pick up the exact noumer now, but
it's kind of.
Speaker 3 (07:40):
In the hundreds of billions of cost and I don't
see labor immediately following a lot of money into there,
just because well, the UK's destination is worse in New
Zealand's uh. And they have very much promised to not
kind of rock the boat in that area.
Speaker 1 (07:55):
I suppose everyone here, especially in New Zealand and in
your field this as well, that we all know someone
who is living in London or is going to live
in London planning to move over there as their big oe, right.
Is it a good time for KIWI expats to move there?
Do you think what does Starma's Britain look like to
us Kiwi's look?
Speaker 2 (08:17):
I do that.
Speaker 3 (08:17):
I'm in the middle of my oay, so obviously I'm
somewhat pro the moves. I did it before Salmon one
or was even surely favored to win. I I think
as the reasons through open through road to the UK
and not going to najorly change by Starmer at least
maybe you were someone who wanted to work in a
(08:38):
government job which only going to be high a public
center employment. Other than that, I'd say the reasons to
move to the UK, uh, you know, there's so many
things to do, with so many europe to visit.
Speaker 2 (08:48):
That's not going to change. If Sarma does.
Speaker 3 (08:51):
What he wants to do and really raise his wages,
that will be a big change there. So you know
money will be in the UK. But for now, I
fact that that could the immediate future. Your region to
move in the UK is about as good now as
it was to EXCO.
Speaker 1 (09:06):
And finally, drawing on your experience as a political editor
here in New Zealand and then now working over there
during this election, what kind of comparisons have surprised you
between what's happening there and what had happened here last year.
Speaker 2 (09:20):
I mean, there's a lot of similarities in that.
Speaker 3 (09:24):
I think a big part of both labors last twenty
three and the the Tory lost and twenty four here
is around things kind of outside of the government's control
or a little bit of the government's control, around things
like inflation and just wait right, you know what which
is going really really high.
Speaker 2 (09:41):
That stuff just kills governments, you.
Speaker 3 (09:43):
Know, And it's the perception of how you deal with
that problem that is really crucial.
Speaker 2 (09:49):
And both labor avatories, especially Victoria has.
Speaker 3 (09:52):
Really failed to look like they had to handle on
it and look like they are making it better. They
failed on kind of data competence more of an ideology
in terms of difference.
Speaker 2 (10:01):
Is the really huge thing that the method that Forterier
is the electoral system. So obviously it's.
Speaker 3 (10:05):
First past the post here in Ford of MP Whichry
have a New Zealand is that that's them where if
you lose a little bit, you can lose.
Speaker 2 (10:13):
Really really badly.
Speaker 3 (10:14):
So later I know the overall boat year old have
at the end of the night, but it's probably going
to be somewhere around late thirty percent. They are going
to have probably seventy percent of the seats based on that.
Vatories are not going to have anywhere near that. And
when you lose it can get really really bad. And
that's that's the really really difference here that the third
parties here, instead of kind of taking a bit of
(10:35):
their vote but still being kind of a partner, are
kind of really big competitors.
Speaker 1 (10:40):
Thanks for joining us, Henry. That's it for this episode
of The Front Page. You can read more about today's
stories and extensive news coverage at enzid Herald dot co
dot nz. The Front Page is produced by Ethan Sells
and sound engineer Patty Fox. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to
(11:04):
The Front Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts,
and tune in on Monday for another look behind the headlines.
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