February 22, 2025 • 7 mins
New Zealand and Australian defence forces are watching on cautiously, following China's military drills in the Tasman Sea.
The Chinese Task Group conducted live firing last night from three vessels in its second day of drills.
Defence Minister Judith Collins says its intentions had been broadcast via its radio channels.
Former politics professor Stephen Hoadley says Collins has been careful not to aggravate China with her choice of words.
"She's showing a good deal of constraint, because in the back of her mind - or in the front of her mind - is the fact that China is still New Zealand's number one trade partner."
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Speaker 1 (00:06):
You're listening to the Sunday Session podcast with Francesca Rudkin
from News Talks ab SO.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
China has launched a second round of live firing from
a navy vessel as it conducts drills off the coast
of Australia. Prime Minister Christopher Luxen has confirmed New Zealand
has not been given reason for this military action now
and they were not warned of intent to conduct the firing.
To discuss this, I'm joined by Professor of Politics and
(00:34):
International Relations, Stephen Holy. Good morning, Stephen, thank you so
much for your time.
Speaker 3 (00:40):
Good morning, Francisca. Exciting times.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
Yes, it certainly is. What have you made of China's
military exercises and the Tasman.
Speaker 3 (00:48):
Like everyone, I was taken by surprise. The Minister of
Defense said it quite well that she is never aware
of such a large groups, so well armed, so far
south in the Tasman Sea, so she keeps describing this
as a significant and usual event. She is, however, very
(01:08):
careful not to challenge China by name, by she doesn't
cause us a show of force, as Paddy gowarg to
induce her to say that, but she very carefully sidestepped
the suggestion and she's showing a good deal of constraint
because in the back of her mind, or no, in
(01:30):
the front of her mind is the fact that China
is still New Zealand's number one trade partner, and there's
going She's being very careful not to miss China unnecessarily
or be provocative to our best trade partner.
Speaker 2 (01:46):
Stephen, Is this a threat? What is the message China
was trying to scend here?
Speaker 3 (01:51):
Well, it is a message. I think that's a good word, Fancesca.
It's not in the sense that these ships are not
going to bombard Sydney or Auckland. They are there to
show themselves that they can actually do it. Because China
is traditionally historically epinental power, it's only in the last
couple of decades it's become a sea power. It now
(02:15):
the largest navy in the world, the largest number of
Warshipsistics and long distance deployment has always been its weak point,
and now the Chinese are trying with this replenishment that's
going along with the two other combat ships, to show
that they can deploy at a distance, they can exercise
(02:35):
their pistols, their guns at a distance, and they can
and they can also find out what the reaction of
the nearby countries are new and they have sent out
the Posidon aircraft, the surveillance aircraft is to sent out
Takaha the frigate and all of this will be taken
(02:57):
note of, as well as the electronic signaling by the Chinese.
This will give them additional information about what sort of
response they can expect if there were to be some
sort of hostilities in the future.
Speaker 2 (03:10):
It's a bit of a fact finding mission, isn't it.
Do you think, though, that this is going to become
the norm? Would you? Are you anticipating that China will
spend further time in the Tasman.
Speaker 3 (03:20):
Well, that's a very good point, Francesca. It is the
norm Judith mentioned. Is it the norm that China will
simply come along and not give us any warning, will
not give us the courtesy of informing us that there
will be deployments, There will be life fire exercises, there
will be transits save between China and the Antarctic, where
(03:42):
China is building a fifth research station. Put that in
quotes mark quote marks research not too far from New
Zealand and America's research stations. So yes, it will become
more frequent. We're going to see the Chinese deploying into
the South Pacific more frequently. Certainly with the new agreement
(04:04):
with Coke Islands, we may find the Chinese making courtesy
calls to Cooke Islands, depending on what wincident Peters and
Mark Brown can work out about the future of the
Cook Islands. So the Chinese are here to stay, and
we're going to have to use our best diplomacy to
make sure that the relationship remains mutually beneficial as it
(04:27):
is at the moment and doesn't deteriorate.
Speaker 2 (04:31):
That was going to be my next question. How do
New Zealand and Australia need to react.
Speaker 3 (04:35):
Here cautiously, without overreacting, and without accusing China doing anything wrong,
which they have not done. Both Ministers of Defense, Morals
and Colons have emphasized the Chinese are within their rights
to travel international water justice Australian New Zealand ships transit
(04:55):
the Taiwan Strait, which China objects to, and that we
have to watch, prepare and probably up our defense budget.
New Zealand's defense budget is the lowest of the English
speaking democracies, and it's at just over one percent the
target for Europe is over two percent, and Donald Trump
(05:19):
is talking about four or five percent GDP for defense.
So New Zealand's going to be under some pressure to
raise defense spending and to gain more capabilities to balance
out and to keep to monitor what the rising Chinese
Navy and Air Force are doing in this part of
the world.
Speaker 2 (05:40):
Stephen, our Foreign Minister Winston Paters is off to China
this week. How timely is this meeting?
Speaker 3 (05:46):
Well, it's western. Peters will remind the Chinese that it
would be courteous if they would let us know if
they're to deploy, if they're using live fire, if we
have to divert transpasmin flights to give them space for
their live fire exercises. You'll be raising a number of
other issues, but mainly he'll be trying to promote trade
(06:09):
and say, okay, Chinese economy is slowing down. We hope
this is going to impact on China's imports of New
Zealand's products. We hope that Chinese tourists and students will
continue to come, Chinese investments will continue to arrive in
New Zealand and stimulate the economy, as is the flagship
policy of the lux and government. So there'll be a
(06:32):
lot of talk about economics and trade and.
Speaker 2 (06:37):
What do you think. China's response to these conversations will be.
Speaker 3 (06:41):
Absolutly Chinese friendly, smiles, diplomacy. They will say, yes, we
are sovereign countries. We disagree, but we agree to disagree
and we can carry on because the agreements outweigh the disagreements.
And that is still the case even with these Chinese
ships here. It does add a new dimension of tension.
We're going to have to be a little bit more wary,
(07:02):
a little bit more defense and intelligence savvy vis a
vis the Chinese. But the bottom line, certainly for the
business community is China is a good customer. It's the
number one customer and Donald and in spite of Donald Trump,
the United States is the second best customer for New Zealand.
(07:24):
So courtesy in both cases, not provoking, but keeping up
the good economic relationship with the two superpowers is New
Zealand's best policy.
Speaker 2 (07:36):
Stephen Hardley, as always, thank you so much for your
time this morning.
Speaker 1 (07:40):
For more from the Sunday session with Francesca Rutken, listen
live to News Talks it B from nine am Sunday,
or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio,
You're listening to the Sunday Session podcast with Francesca Rudkin
from News Talks ab SO.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
China has launched a second round of live firing from
a navy vessel as it conducts drills off the coast
of Australia. Prime Minister Christopher Luxen has confirmed New Zealand
has not been given reason for this military action now
and they were not warned of intent to conduct the firing.
To discuss this, I'm joined by Professor of Politics and
(00:34):
International Relations, Stephen Holy. Good morning, Stephen, thank you so
much for your time.
Speaker 3 (00:40):
Good morning, Francisca. Exciting times.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
Yes, it certainly is. What have you made of China's
military exercises and the Tasman.
Speaker 3 (00:48):
Like everyone, I was taken by surprise. The Minister of
Defense said it quite well that she is never aware
of such a large groups, so well armed, so far
south in the Tasman Sea, so she keeps describing this
as a significant and usual event. She is, however, very
(01:08):
careful not to challenge China by name, by she doesn't
cause us a show of force, as Paddy gowarg to
induce her to say that, but she very carefully sidestepped
the suggestion and she's showing a good deal of constraint
because in the back of her mind, or no, in
(01:30):
the front of her mind is the fact that China
is still New Zealand's number one trade partner, and there's
going She's being very careful not to miss China unnecessarily
or be provocative to our best trade partner.
Speaker 2 (01:46):
Stephen, Is this a threat? What is the message China
was trying to scend here?
Speaker 3 (01:51):
Well, it is a message. I think that's a good word, Fancesca.
It's not in the sense that these ships are not
going to bombard Sydney or Auckland. They are there to
show themselves that they can actually do it. Because China
is traditionally historically epinental power, it's only in the last
couple of decades it's become a sea power. It now
(02:15):
the largest navy in the world, the largest number of
Warshipsistics and long distance deployment has always been its weak point,
and now the Chinese are trying with this replenishment that's
going along with the two other combat ships, to show
that they can deploy at a distance, they can exercise
(02:35):
their pistols, their guns at a distance, and they can
and they can also find out what the reaction of
the nearby countries are new and they have sent out
the Posidon aircraft, the surveillance aircraft is to sent out
Takaha the frigate and all of this will be taken
(02:57):
note of, as well as the electronic signaling by the Chinese.
This will give them additional information about what sort of
response they can expect if there were to be some
sort of hostilities in the future.
Speaker 2 (03:10):
It's a bit of a fact finding mission, isn't it.
Do you think, though, that this is going to become
the norm? Would you? Are you anticipating that China will
spend further time in the Tasman.
Speaker 3 (03:20):
Well, that's a very good point, Francesca. It is the
norm Judith mentioned. Is it the norm that China will
simply come along and not give us any warning, will
not give us the courtesy of informing us that there
will be deployments, There will be life fire exercises, there
will be transits save between China and the Antarctic, where
(03:42):
China is building a fifth research station. Put that in
quotes mark quote marks research not too far from New
Zealand and America's research stations. So yes, it will become
more frequent. We're going to see the Chinese deploying into
the South Pacific more frequently. Certainly with the new agreement
(04:04):
with Coke Islands, we may find the Chinese making courtesy
calls to Cooke Islands, depending on what wincident Peters and
Mark Brown can work out about the future of the
Cook Islands. So the Chinese are here to stay, and
we're going to have to use our best diplomacy to
make sure that the relationship remains mutually beneficial as it
(04:27):
is at the moment and doesn't deteriorate.
Speaker 2 (04:31):
That was going to be my next question. How do
New Zealand and Australia need to react.
Speaker 3 (04:35):
Here cautiously, without overreacting, and without accusing China doing anything wrong,
which they have not done. Both Ministers of Defense, Morals
and Colons have emphasized the Chinese are within their rights
to travel international water justice Australian New Zealand ships transit
(04:55):
the Taiwan Strait, which China objects to, and that we
have to watch, prepare and probably up our defense budget.
New Zealand's defense budget is the lowest of the English
speaking democracies, and it's at just over one percent the
target for Europe is over two percent, and Donald Trump
(05:19):
is talking about four or five percent GDP for defense.
So New Zealand's going to be under some pressure to
raise defense spending and to gain more capabilities to balance
out and to keep to monitor what the rising Chinese
Navy and Air Force are doing in this part of
the world.
Speaker 2 (05:40):
Stephen, our Foreign Minister Winston Paters is off to China
this week. How timely is this meeting?
Speaker 3 (05:46):
Well, it's western. Peters will remind the Chinese that it
would be courteous if they would let us know if
they're to deploy, if they're using live fire, if we
have to divert transpasmin flights to give them space for
their live fire exercises. You'll be raising a number of
other issues, but mainly he'll be trying to promote trade
(06:09):
and say, okay, Chinese economy is slowing down. We hope
this is going to impact on China's imports of New
Zealand's products. We hope that Chinese tourists and students will
continue to come, Chinese investments will continue to arrive in
New Zealand and stimulate the economy, as is the flagship
policy of the lux and government. So there'll be a
(06:32):
lot of talk about economics and trade and.
Speaker 2 (06:37):
What do you think. China's response to these conversations will be.
Speaker 3 (06:41):
Absolutly Chinese friendly, smiles, diplomacy. They will say, yes, we
are sovereign countries. We disagree, but we agree to disagree
and we can carry on because the agreements outweigh the disagreements.
And that is still the case even with these Chinese
ships here. It does add a new dimension of tension.
We're going to have to be a little bit more wary,
(07:02):
a little bit more defense and intelligence savvy vis a
vis the Chinese. But the bottom line, certainly for the
business community is China is a good customer. It's the
number one customer and Donald and in spite of Donald Trump,
the United States is the second best customer for New Zealand.
(07:24):
So courtesy in both cases, not provoking, but keeping up
the good economic relationship with the two superpowers is New
Zealand's best policy.
Speaker 2 (07:36):
Stephen Hardley, as always, thank you so much for your
time this morning.
Speaker 1 (07:40):
For more from the Sunday session with Francesca Rutken, listen
live to News Talks it B from nine am Sunday,
or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio,
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