July 10, 2024 • 36 mins
Robert and Gare enter the KHIVE to discuss post debate polls, whether Biden will step down, and if Kamala Harris could replace him on the ballot.
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Cool Zone Media. Welcome to it could happen here a
podcast about it happening here, it being the slow crumbling
of the old world and the painful birth of the new.
And here to talk about the painful birth of the
new world is someone who was compared to me very
(00:22):
recently born, Garrison Davis. How are you doing, Garet.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
Good Good as a new member of the KHive nation,
I have a new life under me now.
Speaker 1 (00:30):
Yeah, you've embraced the Kamala of it all and are
now are now just vibing? Yeah, it's a beautiful place
to be. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (00:39):
Unfortunately it might be just as a delusional as Biden's
own insistence that he should be the one to run.
And that's kind of what we're talking about here today.
Speaker 1 (00:49):
Oh good, I love delusion and its impact on American
political life.
Speaker 2 (00:54):
So our initial post debate comments, we're a little bit frenzied,
little bit chaotic, as was the debate, I suppose, and
post debate polls were also just kind of a mess
initially with wildly differing results from source to source, but
over time they have since stabilized and kind of synced
(01:15):
up to like phyciically put it, essentially, the debate undid
most of the pro Biden shifts that had happened in
the wake of Trump's felony conviction.
Speaker 1 (01:25):
Yeah, and I've seen some poles have shown it tightening
up a little bit again. But it's it's very I mean,
I always wonder like how much you've got kind of
two camps, broadly speaking in terms of the people who
seem like they're not completely insane. One of them is
kind of the Nate Silver side of things, which shows
(01:48):
Biden as having fallen fairly far behind and having you know,
he's got Biden at about a thirty percent chance, which
is where Trump was in twenty sixteen, so that doesn't
mean z zero. Whereas the new five thirty eight polling average,
and I kind of have been following their new head
of statistics for a while, has it still close to
(02:10):
a dead heat. And then obviously, you know, there's arguments
that people will make that Trump or that Biden is
actually very far behind, which have more to it than
the arguments that Biden that Biden is going to win
in a landslide, the kind of democratic like the polls
are wrong entirely. I don't think that's likely, but I
think we're looking at somewhere between Biden as a definite
(02:33):
like underdog, or more or less tied. I guess that's
where it seems to me like the evidence still is yep.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
A USA Today Suffolk University poll conducted immediately after the
debate gave Trump a four point boost. The week after
the debate, a New York Times Siena poll found Trump's
lead had increased by three percent, now leading by six
points with likely voters. Other questions were pulled in the
wake of the debate. A CNN found that seventy five
percent of Democrats believe the party would have a better
(03:03):
chance at defeating Trump with a candidate to other than Biden.
And overall, yes, his number dropped or kind of coasted
with what it had been in like, you know, April, March, February,
and according to Politico, other than Trump in twenty twenty,
no incumbent has trailed this far behind in horse race
polling since Jimmy Carter's re election bid forty four years ago,
(03:26):
which does not make me feel super optimistic.
Speaker 1 (03:29):
It's not great, and man, it would be. I suspect
the polls are still over emphasizing it to a degree
because if if Biden losing by six percent would be
like the big the worst performance of a Democrat really
like a generation, like in a long long time, and
I just don't believe it's going to be that far off,
but like it is. Definitely things are a lot uglier
(03:52):
than they were when we recorded our last horse race episode, right,
Like the debate was somewhere between pretty bad and catastrophe
in terms of its impact on the polls.
Speaker 2 (04:02):
Absolutely, but Trump, what Trump actually gained himself as a
candidate is not very much. It's mostly it's mostly, it's
mostly decreases on Biden. And five pollsters did pre and
post debate polls, and Trump is gaining on the margin,
but in none of the polls did he gain anything
more than a four point swing. So they're all pretty consistent,
(04:23):
and it's it's not all the end of the world
here either. A poll released last Saturday by Bloomberg and
Morning Console showed Biden narrowing Trump's post debate lead, specifically
in swing states, with only a two percent difference between
all seven swing states, with Biden being ahead in Michigan
and Wisconsin. Yeah, two percent is within that margin of error,
So things are also starting to level up over time.
Speaker 1 (04:47):
Yeah, and I think some of this may have to
do We're going to talk a bit about Project twenty
twenty five, which which I tend to think, uh, and
we've been chatting about this online all week in our
work chat. People are overemphasizing as opposed to what Trump
is that because Agenda Project twenty twenty five is basically
(05:08):
a blueprint for a Christian fascist takeover of the US,
published by the Heritage Foundation, and a lot of people
who have been affiliated with Trump, who were in his
administration last time, have are on board with it, have
talked about it, have boosted it, so people are obviously
scared of it. I think what Trump is actually promised
(05:28):
to do in office, which is the Agenda forty seven,
we did a whole week of stuff on it, is
a more realistic thing to be afraid of. But either way,
I think that some of that tightening is probably a
mix of you've got everywhere, you had a bunch of
kind of on the fence, voters swing away from Biden
because he performed so badly in the debate, and then
(05:49):
it has dims have done a pretty intensive job of
spreading out a lot of you know, what you might
call fear porn over a fascist takeover of the country.
And I think that's part of why things might be
tightening back up.
Speaker 2 (06:03):
I mean, it would be nice to eventually, one year
vote for vote for something instead of just be voting
against something. But again, I'm not sure if we'll ever
get to that point.
Speaker 1 (06:12):
Again. Yeah, hasn't happened yet. Well no, no, no, I
mean I was. I remember I got to vote for
Obama the first time he ran, and it was hard
not to be optimistic.
Speaker 2 (06:23):
So immediately after the debate, we had a whole bunch
of like friends of Biden, kind of upper level Democrat
not like online influencers, but like actual like influential, like
like pundits and people you know, call for perhaps Biden
should step down, perhaps we should find somebody else. And
this has kind of been the ongoing post debate ever
since the debates has been this question and we'll get
(06:47):
I we'll kind of get to this a little bit
more later. Honestly, I think we had a stronger chance
at this possibility a week or two ago. I think
by now Democrats have largely kind of closed ranks around Biden.
But this is this is definitely still developing. And I've
been keeping up with all of Biden's appearances in the
media since the debate, just because I've been interested to
see how he will handle this kind of universal flub.
(07:09):
I watched his ABC interview and his recent phone calls
into various morning news shows. In all of those, he
did not perform especially well as expected. They were slow
and sometimes kind of like mumbly, But neither have they
been like the death blow to his campaign needed to
finalize the shift to an alternative candidate. Instead, we're just
(07:30):
kind of coasting along with this general uncertainty regarding the
Democratic candidacy, and meanwhile, Biden is just continuing to affirm
that he will be the one to lead the ticket.
I'm going to quote from Washington Post here. Quote. As
of Sunday, nine House Democrats, four privately and five publicly,
had called for Biden to exit the race. In addition,
at least to eighteen current and former top Democrats as
(07:51):
of Saturday had publicly raised concerns about Biden's fitness for
office and his ability to defeat Trump unquote, And it
has remained the same since then. There's gonna be meetings
in the next few days. Including the day after we
record this. We're recording this on Monday, so there's gonna
be meetings in the Senate and in the House about
kind of this issue. So this is definitely still developing,
(08:12):
but you're starting to see more and more politicians fall
into rank. AOC just put in a statement saying, no,
we're gonna we're gonna all support Biden. So like there
was this uncertainty for a while, and now I think
people are kind of being told to like, come on,
get on the platform. Yeah, but Biden hasn't been handling
this well like personally either. He's come across like very angry.
Speaker 1 (08:32):
No, the emails I've been getting from the Biden campaign
have been wild, and I've been belaving podcasters.
Speaker 2 (08:38):
He's been blaming.
Speaker 1 (08:39):
Past the media, and I'm kind of bummed that it's
the pods save guys. He got angry. Yet we've been
We've been shitty to Joe Biden for so much longer
than those assholes.
Speaker 2 (08:49):
Yeah, but he's been treating it very weirdly. He's been
doing a lot of like a denial of the polling.
He's been doing some revisionist.
Speaker 1 (08:56):
History, very magical thinking.
Speaker 2 (08:58):
Regarding like twenty twenty pulling I think, I think kind
of referencing the Democratic primary, but still the way that
he's talking about it, it's making it sound like he,
you know, like he was behind in the polls in
twenty twenty, that he was that Democrats were behind in
the polls in twenty twenty two, which just wasn't true.
The red wave comment was was certain pundits and Republicans
trying to conjure a red wave, but the actual polls
(09:20):
were very accurate in twenty twenty two. And he's also
crediting himself for that red wave not happening in twenty
twenty two. So he's been having a lot of weird statements,
like blaming media and blaming the elites for trying to
replace him on the ticket. I'll include one clip here
from the morning Joe, come on.
Speaker 1 (09:38):
Give me a break.
Speaker 2 (09:39):
I'm getting so frustrated.
Speaker 1 (09:40):
But by the lease, now, I'm not talking about you guys,
but about the elase in the party who.
Speaker 2 (09:46):
They know so much more.
Speaker 1 (09:48):
But any of these guys, I don't think I should
run against me.
Speaker 2 (09:53):
Announced for president, challenge a man to convention. Kind of
his continuous line to justify his own candidate. See is
has been him claiming that he won the primary, which
is a ridiculous thing to say as an incumbent, because like,
come on, come on, and he has repeatedly said that
that that Democratic voters in the primaries have quote spoken
(10:15):
clearly and decisively. They've chosen me to be the nominee
of the party, which is not how it worked. Quote.
Do we now just say that process didn't matter, that
the voters don't have a say, I declined to do that.
How could we stand for democracy in our nation if
we ignore it in our own party. I cannot do that.
I will not do that, unquote, which is just absurd,
(10:37):
right because like especially there was many people who actually
voted in the like false primary for like the like
other option.
Speaker 1 (10:45):
Yeah, I mean, but like seventy five percent of Americans
would prefer to vote for someone besides Biden.
Speaker 2 (10:51):
Like it's it's absurd, especially when you're running like an
uncontested as an incumbent. If you want people to challenge you,
you could have said so, like it's come on, like
this is there was there was no pretty goofy.
Speaker 1 (11:04):
No real primary for the dims, and there usually isn't.
That's not abnormal with an incumbent, But in this case,
people have severe questions about the incumbent's fitness to do
the job in a physical way. Like I hate to
say it, but like Trump might physically be better able
to survive a four year term than Biden. Is, you know,
not that I think he's mentally a better president. I
(11:27):
don't think honestly. Part of what we are accepting here
is that, like that's so that doesn't really matter, right,
Like we're all kind of acknowledging if you're on team
anything but Trump, because he might end the concept of
democracy in this country, then you're accepting that, like, yeah,
I am not. I am voting for a guy who
probably can't really do the job anymore, and just assuming
(11:50):
that the people around him will not be as evil
like you do. Kind of have to accept that. Otherwise
you're just lying to yourself about the state that Joe
is in because he's he's not He's not all there.
He's not all there the way he was in twenty twenty.
Speaker 2 (12:02):
No, but do you know what still is here just
like it was back in.
Speaker 1 (12:04):
Twenty twenty, capitalism, Baby, We didn't manage to take it out,
even though we elected this our Communist leader Joseph Biden
chairman Joe.
Speaker 2 (12:15):
Enjoy these capitalism sponsored ads.
Speaker 1 (12:28):
All right, we are back. Yeah. So there was a
report that came out from CHIP fifty, which is like
an analytics project. It's like the Civic Health and Institution Project,
So it's like a survey of all fifty US states,
and they did a survey on like opinions of voters
(12:48):
before and after the debate, and there showed like fairly
small movement, like very little was changed at all in
terms of like and primarily what was changed wasn't people
going from Biden to Trump, but from people preferring from
preferring Biden to preferring other rights like someone else, someone
else right. And so that does kind of go back
(13:11):
to what we're like, people are not making their minds
up about Trump like now. And I think what the
DIMS can do if Biden stays in and he doesn't
seem like he's leaving. It seems like the primary thing
that will make progress for them is hitting on how
dangerous Trump having a second term will be. That seems
to be what moves the needle, which.
Speaker 2 (13:30):
Is part of their current strategy. But their shategy is
kind of all influx right now because of the poor
performance in the debate, They're trying to save face on
Biden's part as well as emphasizing that Trump is like
a dangerous possibility. And again, like, even if Biden does
decide to drop out or step down, He's going to
keep saying he's running until literally the day that happens,
(13:50):
right because that is that is what you do as
a politician. You were gonna you were going to keep
insisting it until one day you are no longer doing that.
And that's just kind of how politics goes. But he
has it's made continuous, continuous gestures towards the fact that
he is he is going to stay. He has no
plans on stepping down. He wants to win in November.
This Monday, he personally made twenty calls to congressional members
(14:12):
trying to convince them that he is going to be
the one on the ticket.
Speaker 1 (14:16):
No, really, guys, it's going to be me again.
Speaker 2 (14:18):
Really, And I think part of what he's doing here
is like he does not have to demonstrate at the
moment that he will like survive until like November. All
he has to do right now is run out the
clock until the convention and then it'll be too late
to swap him out for anyone else. There's a few
other people kind of saying this, and I believe that
(14:40):
is kind of what is what is happening. All they
need to do is just keep delaying this question, keep this,
keep this uncertainty until the convention, and then it's going
to get locked in there. And that's all he needs
to do. He doesn't need to demonstrate his viability come November.
He just needs to make sure that he gets he
gets the official nomination this August. And I don't know.
(15:00):
Biden supporters' reactions to this have been really weird, including
we've kind of had like a new upgrowth of a
pro Biden personality cult among liberals because I feel like,
largely like a culmination of like MSNBC Russia Gate, like
bluing on type stuff that people are just now convinced
(15:20):
there's like a secret conspiracy to take down Biden, and
any attempts to question Biden's legibility as a candidate could
only be rooted in some secret agenda to get Trump elected.
So I think this is why they're so volatile about this,
is that they think like the only one who would
ever propagate questions over Biden's like legibility would be someone
who secretly wants Trump to be in office again, and
(15:41):
that is such a threat to them that they they're
lashing out very very oddly and very conspiratorially against anyone
raising questions about maybe Biden's not the best guy actually,
and they're spinning this into like actually being secret Trumpers.
It's odd because even the way Biden talks about his
own drive to beat Trump is kind of wishy washy,
(16:03):
certain like more polished statements will be like, yes, this
is like a threat to democracy. We have to we
have to do this to keep Trump out of office.
This is an existential threat. But in that in that
ABC interview, he gave a really kind of soft answer
to this question, saying that all that he needs to
do is just give it his all.
Speaker 1 (16:18):
And if you stay in and Trump is elected and
everything you're warning about comes to pass, how will you
feel in January? I'll feel as long as I gave
it my all and I did the goodest jobs I
know I can do.
Speaker 2 (16:32):
That's what this is about. It. That's not convincing.
Speaker 1 (16:39):
That's such like a like ninth like cartoons for a
ninth grader's way of saying it, like, well, what matters
is that I tried put it all my best work board. No, man,
that doesn't matter at all.
Speaker 2 (16:51):
Yeah it is. It's not great, it's it's it's not
it's not reassuring because it doesn't matter if you give
it your all, people's lives are are on the right
and you're just like, eh, I'll give it the old
college try, You're like, okay.
Speaker 1 (17:04):
It means one of two things. He's either is completely
delusional to the point where he doesn't realize how nonsensical
that is, or he doesn't really think that Trump is
a threat to democracy in people's lives. And I guess
the third option would be he doesn't care, like if
he loses reelection, fuck everybody, if he doesn't get to
keep being president. Like maybe he is just that kind
(17:26):
of person. I do have a feeling that only that
kind of person can become president of the United States.
Speaker 2 (17:32):
Yeah, And I mean, like that was kind of my
read after the ABC interviews that he seemed just kind
of like delusional and narcissistic, like he really believes after
twenty twenty that he's the only one that can beat
Trump and this feels like like a very genuine view
of himself that he's the only one strong enough to
beat Trump. Yeah, And the more and more that there's
(17:52):
been pushback against his legibility, the more he's been digging
his heels in. And I think if things continue like this,
I don't think the Democratic Party will be able to
organize and unite enough to do like a soft coup
and convince Biden to step down. And without a complete
united front against Biden, he himself would need some kind
of like excuse to allow himself to step down without
(18:12):
sacrificing his pride and showing weakness both in himself and
the party. This could be like a convenient medical diagnosis, right,
although the increasing number of calls for him to undergo
thorough neurological examination will probably have the same backfire effect
of Biden attempting as much as he can to avoid
any in depth medical and neurological testing. He's been making
(18:34):
these comments like every day I take a neurological test
by doing my job, and like, come on, man, we
also we're watching you do your job. It's not the.
Speaker 1 (18:44):
Problem, bro, Like you got up in front of the
like again referred to the last episode. Do you what
I did on the horse race? Our attitude was like, yeah,
things have really improved for Biden. I think he's probably
the smart money bet. And like sitting down and watching
that it was horrifying, Like, yeah, there's no dinner. That's
part of why this. You have to if you're still
(19:07):
on team, Like, I don't think it's fair what people
are saying to Joe if you're on team, This was
bad strategy from the beginning expressing any kind of doubt. Well,
maybe that's right, but I don't know what else people
are supposed to do if you don't if you really
think that this is he is not demonstrated, like is
seriously concerning incapacity for the work. Think about how unprecedented
(19:30):
having this degree of open challenging of him as the
candidate this close to an elections. I've never seen anything
like that.
Speaker 2 (19:35):
Especially as especially on like in incumbent yes the president, Yeah,
and an incumbent who's served two times as vice, Like
that's ridiculous. And like the last real neurological medical examination
that he undertook was last February, which for an eighty
one year old is a very long time, especially if
(19:57):
you compare like news clips of him from like a
debate two clips of him from last February or last year.
There actually is like a decent difference, And I don't know,
it seems it seems kind of absurd that he that
he keeps harping on this line. For his ABC interview,
he declined to take a cognitive test and make the
results public in order to reassure voters that he was
(20:17):
fit to serve another term, saying that I have a
cognitive test every single day doing this job. Everything I
do is a test. No, not great.
Speaker 1 (20:27):
No.
Speaker 2 (20:28):
He also said that only the Lord Almighty could persuade
him to change his mind and drop out of the race.
Speaker 1 (20:35):
What the fuck? What the fuck? Show?
Speaker 2 (20:37):
There we go? Seriously, man, So that's again not not
super reassuring. But do you know what I can be
reassured by Robert.
Speaker 1 (20:49):
The fact that sweet lady capitalism is always there for us.
Speaker 2 (20:52):
It's always there, like a good uncle or something.
Speaker 1 (20:56):
I don't know, Yeah, yeah, yeah, something something that state farmad.
I agree.
Speaker 2 (21:11):
All right, we are back. It is certainly feeling like
nineteen sixty eight all over again, isn't it.
Speaker 1 (21:17):
Yeah? Uh yeah, I mean, And that's obviously having an
open convention in sixty eight. The chaos around that did
not help the Democrats. They did not know that election. No,
we got fucking Dick Nixon. So that's not good.
Speaker 2 (21:33):
No, it's not granted with with campus protests and everything,
it all is starting to feel like sixty eight over here.
Speaker 1 (21:39):
So yeah, a lot of people are saying.
Speaker 2 (21:42):
If Bien does step down before the DNC in Chicago
this August, we could have ourselves an open convention to
nominate a new candidate. The last time this method was
used by Democrats was in sixty eight at the also
Chicago DNC, after the leading candidate, Senendate Robert F. Kennedy,
was assassinated weeks before the convention by twenty five four
year old Palestinian man for his support of Israel during
(22:03):
the Six Day War. So again, there is a lot
of a lot of parallels here. And if it's not
going to be Biden, then who is it going to be? Right,
This was a bigger question last week and it still
is kind of a lingering question in a lot of
people's minds. Who's it going to be? Probably Kamala I
don't know.
Speaker 1 (22:20):
Yeah, I mean, there's really for a lot of reasons
in terms of including like I think what would have
to happen with like the donations, like if it would
to be a totally new group of people, that would
cause insurmountable bullshit. And also like if you're talking about
from a war gaming this out perspective, you know, Kamala
does not look bad in the polling and might might
(22:43):
in fact be just for a variety of reasons, one
of the better choices, Like I can, I can in
my head think, wow, I sure wish it was you know,
Pritzker and Whitmer maybe, but like, I think that a
lot of what I've seen in the polls has kind
of convinced me that Kamala is probably our are best
all around bet and if you include practicality and actually
(23:04):
like beating Trump.
Speaker 2 (23:05):
Yes, in the polls, she is consistently higher than any
other potential Democratic replacements and doing, if not as well,
often better than Biden against Trump, usually closing that race out.
Speaker 1 (23:17):
I think.
Speaker 2 (23:18):
A CNN poll from last Wednesday showed that she's in
the margin of error against Trump nationally with forty five
to his forty seven, which is much better than Biden
is doing nationally, and she's projected to do much better
in an electoral college race than Biden specifically. So there
we go. I'm gonn quote from CNN here quote. An
anonymously written Google doc titled Unburdened by What has been
(23:40):
the Case for Kamala, written by self described senior operatives
within democratic political institutions, has been popping up in group
chats of Democratic donors and leading coalition groups. It lays
out a detailed argument and plan for a campaign. So
this doc I was able to get a hold of
a copy, and parts of it definitely read like an
(24:02):
aaronsor counscript like that is that is the closest thing
I can I can describe this thing as But I
think it is worth digging into here for our last section.
So I'm gonna I'm gonna read some some small parts
of this doc and Robert, and I'm curious to hear
what your thoughts are on this. It starts by saying,
we are currently losing. We need to do something different
(24:23):
to win. The number one most important priority above all
others is defeating Donald Trump. Nothing is more important, and
we need to be very real that we are currently losing.
So off to off to a good start okay, that is,
I would uh, I would, I would argue accurate. Quote.
Biden's debate performance, the campaign's defensive response, and the total
(24:44):
lack of plan to reassure his base and the voters
about his about his capability should shake everyone's confidence that
he can win this election. Now we have three possible options.
Biden can take the necessary step to demonstrate that he
is up to the job, he can step aside for
another candidate, or Trump will win. The discourse around potential
alternative candidates and the event that Biden does step down
(25:04):
is increasingly detached from reality. Donors, pundits, and democratic elites
are freely slinging around wild ideas about dream tickets. This
chaos is used as a shield by stay the Course
advocates who frame the choice as Biden or chaos. The
swirl over different possible candidates is obscuring the fact that
there's a single clear path forward. There's one path out
(25:24):
of this mess, and it's Kamala unquote. And this is
one of the interesting things I found about this doc
is that the way that they view this kind of
current chaos as we win just as a deliberate strategy
and as a deliberate tactics just to continue this uncertainty
all the way to the convention. And a lot of
the what this dock advocates for is that we need
(25:45):
to call this as soon as possible to give whatever
option we're going to go forward with the most amount
of success, whether that's Biden, whether that's Kamala, it needs
to we need to decide what it is so we
don't spend the next few months doing weird like democratic
party infighting and instead actually like lock down what's happening.
So there's a cohesive strategy. And they argue that Kamala
(26:07):
has the strongest claim to democratic legibility among all other
alternative candidates. Quote, she's the only candidate that can take
the reins right now instead of in late August with
less than three months ago. To be clear, this isn't
an argument about deservedness or why should personally love Kamala.
It's about strategy and winning in the face of unimaginable
electoral stakes.
Speaker 1 (26:25):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (26:26):
Now, the doctors point out that only Biden himself has
the power to drop out and choose to head off
chaos by anointing Harris. But Biden does listen to people
and the people that he listens to, listens to other people,
and that is the audience for the people reading this doc.
That's what this is circulating among. That was like the intention,
(26:46):
and they argue that if Biden does drop out, Democrats
have to unite quickly behind the elected successor, as opposed
to inviting this extended period of chaos. And although Kamala
has limitations in polls regarding her name recognition, she currently
wins any poll of alternative Democratic candidates by a very
wide margin. This doc dos pointed out that Kamala is
(27:08):
by no means a perfect candidate. She does have real deficits,
but they are mostly addressable. The doc mentions her Biden
level approval, rating her involvement with Biden's immigration shortcomings and
her kind of awkward camera moments reminiscent of a drunk
aunt and quote. After years of a relatively low profile,
voters don't see her as a strong leader for the country,
(27:29):
but running as a presidential candidate will allow Harris to
present herself in a more commanding light. She'll be a
prosecutor going up against a convicted felon, a woman fighting
against the man who ended Roe V. Wade unquote and
that is a lot of the tight sort of messaging
that they are promoting if Kamala does end up being
the option. A Morning consoled political poll on the vice
(27:49):
president from June reflects a number of advantages she would
have over Trump in a head to head match based
on his greatest vulnerabilities. A majority of voters se Kamala's
mentally fit, level headed, and prepare contrast to Trump and
even Biden, and a majority of voters trust Kamala on jobs, abortion,
climate change, and LGBTQ rights. Public opinion is already moving
(28:09):
towards Harris over Biden. Forty three percent of voters indicate
Harris is fit to run, compared to Biden's thirty five
And while the issue is complex and the distance here
is relative, she's broadly considered to be on Biden's left
on Israel Palestine, an issue where he has major vulnerabilities.
Kamala also has advantages with the younger and POC voters
that the Democrats are currently bleeding in the dock. Here
(28:31):
they contain some stats on this, saying Biden won the
twenty twenty election by just forty four thousand votes, and
most of those are votes that he is bleeding. A
New York Times cenpol in February found that Harris is
nearly ten points ahead of Biden with black voters, and
fifteen points up with Latino voters, twenty points up with
young voters. These are massive advantages. Now that is older data,
(28:53):
but it's probably worth some consideration. Part of the reason
why she is also favored among other Democratic contents is
that she has direct access to the Biden Harris campaign
war chest of over ninety one million dollars in cash,
which would create a smoother transition.
Speaker 1 (29:09):
Yeah, and is probably I mean again, just given the
amount of chaos that would be inherent in a totally
open convention, it just seems like the only feasible option.
Speaker 2 (29:20):
And what they're advocating for is that if Kamla takes
a position now or soon to now, she'll have an
extra month and massive structural advantages. Quote, if we can
unite behind Harris in July, we have an extra month
of party unity and message unity. That's a month where
we can keep the media focused on Donald Trump, Project
twenty twenty five and mega extremism instead of waiting in
(29:41):
dread for the next Biden misstep or talking about democrats
fighting it out to win delicate count Fear of racism
and sexism is playing an outsized role not supported by data.
The impact of sexism and racism on the vote is
marginal compared to the potential to make gains in the
crucial block that will decide the election. Right now. This
race hinges on alienated and unenthusiastic double haters who dislike
(30:04):
both Biden and Trump and want an alternative choice. Some
polls put the size of this group at twenty five
percent nationally, or even higher nearly thirty percent amongst.
Speaker 1 (30:13):
The basically everyone I know well.
Speaker 2 (30:16):
Especially among inconsistent voters who are likely who are likely
to decide the election in key battleground states. For these
double haters, vote choices being driven not by prejudice but
by anti enthusiasm for the two currently eighty year old
white men presented here as the only options. YEAH voters
more likely. These voters are also more likely to be young, Hispanic, black,
(30:36):
and women in urban or suburban areas, the exact kind
of voter profile that Kamala is gaining appeal with.
Speaker 1 (30:43):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (30:43):
And I find this little bit to be the most
compelling statement in this entire document. Because like that lays
out an actual map towards how Kamala would have a
better election viability than Biden, especially in the voters that
he's been bleeding dramatically in the past six seven months. Now.
The DOCA does close by saying, if Biden stays the course,
(31:03):
we need Kamala to be strong. The most likely outcome
is that President Biden declines to step back. In that case,
Kamala's role is more crucial than ever. She will be
the strong communicator on the ticket, especially on our most
important issue abortion. Second, many voters will understand her to
be Biden's near guaranteed successor, and we will need to
feel comfortable with her potential assent to the presidency to
(31:25):
vote for the Biden Harris ticket. For anyone in the
Biden's nominee, we must rally around him camp. It's essential
that we project confidence in his selection of a running
mate by one pushing the administration to stop sidelining Kamala,
by two promoting Kamala as the leader of the party
and country. Three be prepared to align with political and
financial support, and three debate over and ultimately organize around
(31:48):
a new running mate. Consolidation around Vice President Harris will
not guarantee victory in November. No option is free of
risk at this point. But this is our clearest path
to win. We should take it. And that's how the
document ends. And I like some of the arguments they
make here. I don't like Kamala as a person. I
think she is many many and I don't like cops,
(32:09):
but absolutely, especially if their messaging will be like Kamala
the prosecutor against Trump the felon, which I personally don't like.
Speaker 1 (32:16):
But that could work.
Speaker 2 (32:18):
That's not going to lose her important voters. That's not
going to lose her all of the anarchists who already
aren't going to vote.
Speaker 1 (32:23):
Like that, that might be a really good strategy, because
Americans do not feel the same way about prosecutors as
I do, and these you do right, like we have
to accept that at a certain point, I think so.
I I the think that's most frustrated to me about
the fact that it doesn't look like Biden's going to
step down is that like the smartest thing they could
(32:46):
do strategy wise would be to drop that announcement on
like Monday of next week and utterly like cut the
wind out of the sales of the r NC, Like
suddenly the biggest story is that and not you know,
everything that the Republicans are putting out, like you could
actually really do some damage to them, because there's there's
not really anything that they could do in response.
Speaker 2 (33:08):
And so much media attention right now is being focused
on Biden very clearly not being fit for office, and
all of that would go away if Kamala gets put
into the spot, then then then everyone will start focusing
once again on how bad Trump is. And I can
understand some of like the Biden camps like upsetedness at
at like the fact that currently there is just so
(33:30):
much attention on Biden and everyone kind of is ignoring Trump,
but that just is due to how poorly he himself
has been behaving like that, Like that that is ultimately
the Biden campaign's fault that they didn't plan for this constituency.
And if they want all of that like discourse to stop,
they have a very easy option to And it's just
reliant on Biden not being too personally prideful and acknowledging
(33:51):
that he's just too old for office and there are
better candidates out there. So yeah, that is that is
the current, that is the current situation on the rise
of the case Hive, something I at this point am
very skeptical to think will actually happen. But it may
be actually a viable strategy for the Democratic Party.
Speaker 1 (34:10):
Yep. I mean, we'll see what they actually do. Probably
keep running Joe Biden and hope that Americans panic enough
about Trump to But you know, we can all dream.
Speaker 2 (34:23):
I dream to that point. We could also dream that
like that, that like the delegates will just like rebel
against they're like polite duty. Yeah, by by not committing
to their to their non binding promises. Although that would
be extremely unprecedented and it would make the DNC a
lot more fun.
Speaker 1 (34:42):
Oh, we would. We would have a great DNC if
that were to go down. Yep.
Speaker 2 (34:46):
Anyway, well, we're gonna have fun at the R and
C instead.
Speaker 1 (34:49):
Yeah, we sure will. Garrison, You and I are going
to be on the ground in the exclusion zone and
at the convention itself where we cannot have backpacks or.
Speaker 2 (35:00):
Gas masks or canned food.
Speaker 1 (35:03):
But I might be able to carry a gun. Let
me see if they do reciprocity. Uh, where what is
this is Minnesota?
Speaker 2 (35:11):
No, this is not Minnesota.
Speaker 1 (35:12):
This is Wisconsin, Wisconsin.
Speaker 2 (35:15):
This is Milwaukee, Milwaukee.
Speaker 1 (35:17):
We can see how well prepared I am. Let me see.
That could make a fun episode all its own.
Speaker 2 (35:27):
I do have an idea for an episode that I
will mention to you off air that I really want.
Speaker 1 (35:34):
To do for the rn C. Wait, it looks like
yes with restrictions.
Speaker 2 (35:42):
Yeah, I love restrictions.
Speaker 1 (35:44):
That's great. We'll see what those are.
Speaker 2 (35:46):
Stay tuned to you, but the restriction.
Speaker 1 (35:48):
Stay tuned, everybody.
Speaker 2 (35:57):
It could happen here as a production of cool Zone Media.
More podcast from.
Speaker 1 (36:00):
Cool Zone Media, visit our website cool zonemedia dot com,
or check us out on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,
or wherever you listen to podcasts.
Speaker 2 (36:08):
You can find sources for It could Happen here, updated
monthly at coolzonemedia dot com slash sources. Thanks for listening.
Cool Zone Media. Welcome to it could happen here a
podcast about it happening here, it being the slow crumbling
of the old world and the painful birth of the new.
And here to talk about the painful birth of the
new world is someone who was compared to me very
(00:22):
recently born, Garrison Davis. How are you doing, Garet.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
Good Good as a new member of the KHive nation,
I have a new life under me now.
Speaker 1 (00:30):
Yeah, you've embraced the Kamala of it all and are
now are now just vibing? Yeah, it's a beautiful place
to be. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (00:39):
Unfortunately it might be just as a delusional as Biden's
own insistence that he should be the one to run.
And that's kind of what we're talking about here today.
Speaker 1 (00:49):
Oh good, I love delusion and its impact on American
political life.
Speaker 2 (00:54):
So our initial post debate comments, we're a little bit frenzied,
little bit chaotic, as was the debate, I suppose, and
post debate polls were also just kind of a mess
initially with wildly differing results from source to source, but
over time they have since stabilized and kind of synced
(01:15):
up to like phyciically put it, essentially, the debate undid
most of the pro Biden shifts that had happened in
the wake of Trump's felony conviction.
Speaker 1 (01:25):
Yeah, and I've seen some poles have shown it tightening
up a little bit again. But it's it's very I mean,
I always wonder like how much you've got kind of
two camps, broadly speaking in terms of the people who
seem like they're not completely insane. One of them is
kind of the Nate Silver side of things, which shows
(01:48):
Biden as having fallen fairly far behind and having you know,
he's got Biden at about a thirty percent chance, which
is where Trump was in twenty sixteen, so that doesn't
mean z zero. Whereas the new five thirty eight polling average,
and I kind of have been following their new head
of statistics for a while, has it still close to
(02:10):
a dead heat. And then obviously, you know, there's arguments
that people will make that Trump or that Biden is
actually very far behind, which have more to it than
the arguments that Biden that Biden is going to win
in a landslide, the kind of democratic like the polls
are wrong entirely. I don't think that's likely, but I
think we're looking at somewhere between Biden as a definite
(02:33):
like underdog, or more or less tied. I guess that's
where it seems to me like the evidence still is yep.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
A USA Today Suffolk University poll conducted immediately after the
debate gave Trump a four point boost. The week after
the debate, a New York Times Siena poll found Trump's
lead had increased by three percent, now leading by six
points with likely voters. Other questions were pulled in the
wake of the debate. A CNN found that seventy five
percent of Democrats believe the party would have a better
(03:03):
chance at defeating Trump with a candidate to other than Biden.
And overall, yes, his number dropped or kind of coasted
with what it had been in like, you know, April, March, February,
and according to Politico, other than Trump in twenty twenty,
no incumbent has trailed this far behind in horse race
polling since Jimmy Carter's re election bid forty four years ago,
(03:26):
which does not make me feel super optimistic.
Speaker 1 (03:29):
It's not great, and man, it would be. I suspect
the polls are still over emphasizing it to a degree
because if if Biden losing by six percent would be
like the big the worst performance of a Democrat really
like a generation, like in a long long time, and
I just don't believe it's going to be that far off,
but like it is. Definitely things are a lot uglier
(03:52):
than they were when we recorded our last horse race episode, right,
Like the debate was somewhere between pretty bad and catastrophe
in terms of its impact on the polls.
Speaker 2 (04:02):
Absolutely, but Trump, what Trump actually gained himself as a
candidate is not very much. It's mostly it's mostly, it's
mostly decreases on Biden. And five pollsters did pre and
post debate polls, and Trump is gaining on the margin,
but in none of the polls did he gain anything
more than a four point swing. So they're all pretty consistent,
(04:23):
and it's it's not all the end of the world
here either. A poll released last Saturday by Bloomberg and
Morning Console showed Biden narrowing Trump's post debate lead, specifically
in swing states, with only a two percent difference between
all seven swing states, with Biden being ahead in Michigan
and Wisconsin. Yeah, two percent is within that margin of error,
So things are also starting to level up over time.
Speaker 1 (04:47):
Yeah, and I think some of this may have to
do We're going to talk a bit about Project twenty
twenty five, which which I tend to think, uh, and
we've been chatting about this online all week in our
work chat. People are overemphasizing as opposed to what Trump
is that because Agenda Project twenty twenty five is basically
(05:08):
a blueprint for a Christian fascist takeover of the US,
published by the Heritage Foundation, and a lot of people
who have been affiliated with Trump, who were in his
administration last time, have are on board with it, have
talked about it, have boosted it, so people are obviously
scared of it. I think what Trump is actually promised
(05:28):
to do in office, which is the Agenda forty seven,
we did a whole week of stuff on it, is
a more realistic thing to be afraid of. But either way,
I think that some of that tightening is probably a
mix of you've got everywhere, you had a bunch of
kind of on the fence, voters swing away from Biden
because he performed so badly in the debate, and then
(05:49):
it has dims have done a pretty intensive job of
spreading out a lot of you know, what you might
call fear porn over a fascist takeover of the country.
And I think that's part of why things might be
tightening back up.
Speaker 2 (06:03):
I mean, it would be nice to eventually, one year
vote for vote for something instead of just be voting
against something. But again, I'm not sure if we'll ever
get to that point.
Speaker 1 (06:12):
Again. Yeah, hasn't happened yet. Well no, no, no, I
mean I was. I remember I got to vote for
Obama the first time he ran, and it was hard
not to be optimistic.
Speaker 2 (06:23):
So immediately after the debate, we had a whole bunch
of like friends of Biden, kind of upper level Democrat
not like online influencers, but like actual like influential, like
like pundits and people you know, call for perhaps Biden
should step down, perhaps we should find somebody else. And
this has kind of been the ongoing post debate ever
since the debates has been this question and we'll get
(06:47):
I we'll kind of get to this a little bit
more later. Honestly, I think we had a stronger chance
at this possibility a week or two ago. I think
by now Democrats have largely kind of closed ranks around Biden.
But this is this is definitely still developing. And I've
been keeping up with all of Biden's appearances in the
media since the debate, just because I've been interested to
see how he will handle this kind of universal flub.
(07:09):
I watched his ABC interview and his recent phone calls
into various morning news shows. In all of those, he
did not perform especially well as expected. They were slow
and sometimes kind of like mumbly, But neither have they
been like the death blow to his campaign needed to
finalize the shift to an alternative candidate. Instead, we're just
(07:30):
kind of coasting along with this general uncertainty regarding the
Democratic candidacy, and meanwhile, Biden is just continuing to affirm
that he will be the one to lead the ticket.
I'm going to quote from Washington Post here. Quote. As
of Sunday, nine House Democrats, four privately and five publicly,
had called for Biden to exit the race. In addition,
at least to eighteen current and former top Democrats as
(07:51):
of Saturday had publicly raised concerns about Biden's fitness for
office and his ability to defeat Trump unquote, And it
has remained the same since then. There's gonna be meetings
in the next few days. Including the day after we
record this. We're recording this on Monday, so there's gonna
be meetings in the Senate and in the House about
kind of this issue. So this is definitely still developing,
(08:12):
but you're starting to see more and more politicians fall
into rank. AOC just put in a statement saying, no,
we're gonna we're gonna all support Biden. So like there
was this uncertainty for a while, and now I think
people are kind of being told to like, come on,
get on the platform. Yeah, but Biden hasn't been handling
this well like personally either. He's come across like very angry.
Speaker 1 (08:32):
No, the emails I've been getting from the Biden campaign
have been wild, and I've been belaving podcasters.
Speaker 2 (08:38):
He's been blaming.
Speaker 1 (08:39):
Past the media, and I'm kind of bummed that it's
the pods save guys. He got angry. Yet we've been
We've been shitty to Joe Biden for so much longer
than those assholes.
Speaker 2 (08:49):
Yeah, but he's been treating it very weirdly. He's been
doing a lot of like a denial of the polling.
He's been doing some revisionist.
Speaker 1 (08:56):
History, very magical thinking.
Speaker 2 (08:58):
Regarding like twenty twenty pulling I think, I think kind
of referencing the Democratic primary, but still the way that
he's talking about it, it's making it sound like he,
you know, like he was behind in the polls in
twenty twenty, that he was that Democrats were behind in
the polls in twenty twenty two, which just wasn't true.
The red wave comment was was certain pundits and Republicans
trying to conjure a red wave, but the actual polls
(09:20):
were very accurate in twenty twenty two. And he's also
crediting himself for that red wave not happening in twenty
twenty two. So he's been having a lot of weird statements,
like blaming media and blaming the elites for trying to
replace him on the ticket. I'll include one clip here
from the morning Joe, come on.
Speaker 1 (09:38):
Give me a break.
Speaker 2 (09:39):
I'm getting so frustrated.
Speaker 1 (09:40):
But by the lease, now, I'm not talking about you guys,
but about the elase in the party who.
Speaker 2 (09:46):
They know so much more.
Speaker 1 (09:48):
But any of these guys, I don't think I should
run against me.
Speaker 2 (09:53):
Announced for president, challenge a man to convention. Kind of
his continuous line to justify his own candidate. See is
has been him claiming that he won the primary, which
is a ridiculous thing to say as an incumbent, because like,
come on, come on, and he has repeatedly said that
that that Democratic voters in the primaries have quote spoken
(10:15):
clearly and decisively. They've chosen me to be the nominee
of the party, which is not how it worked. Quote.
Do we now just say that process didn't matter, that
the voters don't have a say, I declined to do that.
How could we stand for democracy in our nation if
we ignore it in our own party. I cannot do that.
I will not do that, unquote, which is just absurd,
(10:37):
right because like especially there was many people who actually
voted in the like false primary for like the like
other option.
Speaker 1 (10:45):
Yeah, I mean, but like seventy five percent of Americans
would prefer to vote for someone besides Biden.
Speaker 2 (10:51):
Like it's it's absurd, especially when you're running like an
uncontested as an incumbent. If you want people to challenge you,
you could have said so, like it's come on, like
this is there was there was no pretty goofy.
Speaker 1 (11:04):
No real primary for the dims, and there usually isn't.
That's not abnormal with an incumbent, But in this case,
people have severe questions about the incumbent's fitness to do
the job in a physical way. Like I hate to
say it, but like Trump might physically be better able
to survive a four year term than Biden. Is, you know,
not that I think he's mentally a better president. I
(11:27):
don't think honestly. Part of what we are accepting here
is that, like that's so that doesn't really matter, right,
Like we're all kind of acknowledging if you're on team
anything but Trump, because he might end the concept of
democracy in this country, then you're accepting that, like, yeah,
I am not. I am voting for a guy who
probably can't really do the job anymore, and just assuming
(11:50):
that the people around him will not be as evil
like you do. Kind of have to accept that. Otherwise
you're just lying to yourself about the state that Joe
is in because he's he's not He's not all there.
He's not all there the way he was in twenty twenty.
Speaker 2 (12:02):
No, but do you know what still is here just
like it was back in.
Speaker 1 (12:04):
Twenty twenty, capitalism, Baby, We didn't manage to take it out,
even though we elected this our Communist leader Joseph Biden
chairman Joe.
Speaker 2 (12:15):
Enjoy these capitalism sponsored ads.
Speaker 1 (12:28):
All right, we are back. Yeah. So there was a
report that came out from CHIP fifty, which is like
an analytics project. It's like the Civic Health and Institution Project,
So it's like a survey of all fifty US states,
and they did a survey on like opinions of voters
(12:48):
before and after the debate, and there showed like fairly
small movement, like very little was changed at all in
terms of like and primarily what was changed wasn't people
going from Biden to Trump, but from people preferring from
preferring Biden to preferring other rights like someone else, someone
else right. And so that does kind of go back
(13:11):
to what we're like, people are not making their minds
up about Trump like now. And I think what the
DIMS can do if Biden stays in and he doesn't
seem like he's leaving. It seems like the primary thing
that will make progress for them is hitting on how
dangerous Trump having a second term will be. That seems
to be what moves the needle, which.
Speaker 2 (13:30):
Is part of their current strategy. But their shategy is
kind of all influx right now because of the poor
performance in the debate, They're trying to save face on
Biden's part as well as emphasizing that Trump is like
a dangerous possibility. And again, like, even if Biden does
decide to drop out or step down, He's going to
keep saying he's running until literally the day that happens,
(13:50):
right because that is that is what you do as
a politician. You were gonna you were going to keep
insisting it until one day you are no longer doing that.
And that's just kind of how politics goes. But he
has it's made continuous, continuous gestures towards the fact that
he is he is going to stay. He has no
plans on stepping down. He wants to win in November.
This Monday, he personally made twenty calls to congressional members
(14:12):
trying to convince them that he is going to be
the one on the ticket.
Speaker 1 (14:16):
No, really, guys, it's going to be me again.
Speaker 2 (14:18):
Really, And I think part of what he's doing here
is like he does not have to demonstrate at the
moment that he will like survive until like November. All
he has to do right now is run out the
clock until the convention and then it'll be too late
to swap him out for anyone else. There's a few
other people kind of saying this, and I believe that
(14:40):
is kind of what is what is happening. All they
need to do is just keep delaying this question, keep this,
keep this uncertainty until the convention, and then it's going
to get locked in there. And that's all he needs
to do. He doesn't need to demonstrate his viability come November.
He just needs to make sure that he gets he
gets the official nomination this August. And I don't know.
(15:00):
Biden supporters' reactions to this have been really weird, including
we've kind of had like a new upgrowth of a
pro Biden personality cult among liberals because I feel like,
largely like a culmination of like MSNBC Russia Gate, like
bluing on type stuff that people are just now convinced
(15:20):
there's like a secret conspiracy to take down Biden, and
any attempts to question Biden's legibility as a candidate could
only be rooted in some secret agenda to get Trump elected.
So I think this is why they're so volatile about this,
is that they think like the only one who would
ever propagate questions over Biden's like legibility would be someone
who secretly wants Trump to be in office again, and
(15:41):
that is such a threat to them that they they're
lashing out very very oddly and very conspiratorially against anyone
raising questions about maybe Biden's not the best guy actually,
and they're spinning this into like actually being secret Trumpers.
It's odd because even the way Biden talks about his
own drive to beat Trump is kind of wishy washy,
(16:03):
certain like more polished statements will be like, yes, this
is like a threat to democracy. We have to we
have to do this to keep Trump out of office.
This is an existential threat. But in that in that
ABC interview, he gave a really kind of soft answer
to this question, saying that all that he needs to
do is just give it his all.
Speaker 1 (16:18):
And if you stay in and Trump is elected and
everything you're warning about comes to pass, how will you
feel in January? I'll feel as long as I gave
it my all and I did the goodest jobs I
know I can do.
Speaker 2 (16:32):
That's what this is about. It. That's not convincing.
Speaker 1 (16:39):
That's such like a like ninth like cartoons for a
ninth grader's way of saying it, like, well, what matters
is that I tried put it all my best work board. No, man,
that doesn't matter at all.
Speaker 2 (16:51):
Yeah it is. It's not great, it's it's it's not
it's not reassuring because it doesn't matter if you give
it your all, people's lives are are on the right
and you're just like, eh, I'll give it the old
college try, You're like, okay.
Speaker 1 (17:04):
It means one of two things. He's either is completely
delusional to the point where he doesn't realize how nonsensical
that is, or he doesn't really think that Trump is
a threat to democracy in people's lives. And I guess
the third option would be he doesn't care, like if
he loses reelection, fuck everybody, if he doesn't get to
keep being president. Like maybe he is just that kind
(17:26):
of person. I do have a feeling that only that
kind of person can become president of the United States.
Speaker 2 (17:32):
Yeah, And I mean, like that was kind of my
read after the ABC interviews that he seemed just kind
of like delusional and narcissistic, like he really believes after
twenty twenty that he's the only one that can beat
Trump and this feels like like a very genuine view
of himself that he's the only one strong enough to
beat Trump. Yeah, And the more and more that there's
(17:52):
been pushback against his legibility, the more he's been digging
his heels in. And I think if things continue like this,
I don't think the Democratic Party will be able to
organize and unite enough to do like a soft coup
and convince Biden to step down. And without a complete
united front against Biden, he himself would need some kind
of like excuse to allow himself to step down without
(18:12):
sacrificing his pride and showing weakness both in himself and
the party. This could be like a convenient medical diagnosis, right,
although the increasing number of calls for him to undergo
thorough neurological examination will probably have the same backfire effect
of Biden attempting as much as he can to avoid
any in depth medical and neurological testing. He's been making
(18:34):
these comments like every day I take a neurological test
by doing my job, and like, come on, man, we
also we're watching you do your job. It's not the.
Speaker 1 (18:44):
Problem, bro, Like you got up in front of the
like again referred to the last episode. Do you what
I did on the horse race? Our attitude was like, yeah,
things have really improved for Biden. I think he's probably
the smart money bet. And like sitting down and watching
that it was horrifying, Like, yeah, there's no dinner. That's
part of why this. You have to if you're still
(19:07):
on team, Like, I don't think it's fair what people
are saying to Joe if you're on team, This was
bad strategy from the beginning expressing any kind of doubt. Well,
maybe that's right, but I don't know what else people
are supposed to do if you don't if you really
think that this is he is not demonstrated, like is
seriously concerning incapacity for the work. Think about how unprecedented
(19:30):
having this degree of open challenging of him as the
candidate this close to an elections. I've never seen anything
like that.
Speaker 2 (19:35):
Especially as especially on like in incumbent yes the president, Yeah,
and an incumbent who's served two times as vice, Like
that's ridiculous. And like the last real neurological medical examination
that he undertook was last February, which for an eighty
one year old is a very long time, especially if
(19:57):
you compare like news clips of him from like a
debate two clips of him from last February or last year.
There actually is like a decent difference, And I don't know,
it seems it seems kind of absurd that he that
he keeps harping on this line. For his ABC interview,
he declined to take a cognitive test and make the
results public in order to reassure voters that he was
(20:17):
fit to serve another term, saying that I have a
cognitive test every single day doing this job. Everything I
do is a test. No, not great.
Speaker 1 (20:27):
No.
Speaker 2 (20:28):
He also said that only the Lord Almighty could persuade
him to change his mind and drop out of the race.
Speaker 1 (20:35):
What the fuck? What the fuck? Show?
Speaker 2 (20:37):
There we go? Seriously, man, So that's again not not
super reassuring. But do you know what I can be
reassured by Robert.
Speaker 1 (20:49):
The fact that sweet lady capitalism is always there for us.
Speaker 2 (20:52):
It's always there, like a good uncle or something.
Speaker 1 (20:56):
I don't know, Yeah, yeah, yeah, something something that state farmad.
I agree.
Speaker 2 (21:11):
All right, we are back. It is certainly feeling like
nineteen sixty eight all over again, isn't it.
Speaker 1 (21:17):
Yeah? Uh yeah, I mean, And that's obviously having an
open convention in sixty eight. The chaos around that did
not help the Democrats. They did not know that election. No,
we got fucking Dick Nixon. So that's not good.
Speaker 2 (21:33):
No, it's not granted with with campus protests and everything,
it all is starting to feel like sixty eight over here.
Speaker 1 (21:39):
So yeah, a lot of people are saying.
Speaker 2 (21:42):
If Bien does step down before the DNC in Chicago
this August, we could have ourselves an open convention to
nominate a new candidate. The last time this method was
used by Democrats was in sixty eight at the also
Chicago DNC, after the leading candidate, Senendate Robert F. Kennedy,
was assassinated weeks before the convention by twenty five four
year old Palestinian man for his support of Israel during
(22:03):
the Six Day War. So again, there is a lot
of a lot of parallels here. And if it's not
going to be Biden, then who is it going to be? Right,
This was a bigger question last week and it still
is kind of a lingering question in a lot of
people's minds. Who's it going to be? Probably Kamala I
don't know.
Speaker 1 (22:20):
Yeah, I mean, there's really for a lot of reasons
in terms of including like I think what would have
to happen with like the donations, like if it would
to be a totally new group of people, that would
cause insurmountable bullshit. And also like if you're talking about
from a war gaming this out perspective, you know, Kamala
does not look bad in the polling and might might
(22:43):
in fact be just for a variety of reasons, one
of the better choices, Like I can, I can in
my head think, wow, I sure wish it was you know,
Pritzker and Whitmer maybe, but like, I think that a
lot of what I've seen in the polls has kind
of convinced me that Kamala is probably our are best
all around bet and if you include practicality and actually
(23:04):
like beating Trump.
Speaker 2 (23:05):
Yes, in the polls, she is consistently higher than any
other potential Democratic replacements and doing, if not as well,
often better than Biden against Trump, usually closing that race out.
Speaker 1 (23:17):
I think.
Speaker 2 (23:18):
A CNN poll from last Wednesday showed that she's in
the margin of error against Trump nationally with forty five
to his forty seven, which is much better than Biden
is doing nationally, and she's projected to do much better
in an electoral college race than Biden specifically. So there
we go. I'm gonn quote from CNN here quote. An
anonymously written Google doc titled Unburdened by What has been
(23:40):
the Case for Kamala, written by self described senior operatives
within democratic political institutions, has been popping up in group
chats of Democratic donors and leading coalition groups. It lays
out a detailed argument and plan for a campaign. So
this doc I was able to get a hold of
a copy, and parts of it definitely read like an
(24:02):
aaronsor counscript like that is that is the closest thing
I can I can describe this thing as But I
think it is worth digging into here for our last section.
So I'm gonna I'm gonna read some some small parts
of this doc and Robert, and I'm curious to hear
what your thoughts are on this. It starts by saying,
we are currently losing. We need to do something different
(24:23):
to win. The number one most important priority above all
others is defeating Donald Trump. Nothing is more important, and
we need to be very real that we are currently losing.
So off to off to a good start okay, that is,
I would uh, I would, I would argue accurate. Quote.
Biden's debate performance, the campaign's defensive response, and the total
(24:44):
lack of plan to reassure his base and the voters
about his about his capability should shake everyone's confidence that
he can win this election. Now we have three possible options.
Biden can take the necessary step to demonstrate that he
is up to the job, he can step aside for
another candidate, or Trump will win. The discourse around potential
alternative candidates and the event that Biden does step down
(25:04):
is increasingly detached from reality. Donors, pundits, and democratic elites
are freely slinging around wild ideas about dream tickets. This
chaos is used as a shield by stay the Course
advocates who frame the choice as Biden or chaos. The
swirl over different possible candidates is obscuring the fact that
there's a single clear path forward. There's one path out
(25:24):
of this mess, and it's Kamala unquote. And this is
one of the interesting things I found about this doc
is that the way that they view this kind of
current chaos as we win just as a deliberate strategy
and as a deliberate tactics just to continue this uncertainty
all the way to the convention. And a lot of
the what this dock advocates for is that we need
(25:45):
to call this as soon as possible to give whatever
option we're going to go forward with the most amount
of success, whether that's Biden, whether that's Kamala, it needs
to we need to decide what it is so we
don't spend the next few months doing weird like democratic
party infighting and instead actually like lock down what's happening.
So there's a cohesive strategy. And they argue that Kamala
(26:07):
has the strongest claim to democratic legibility among all other
alternative candidates. Quote, she's the only candidate that can take
the reins right now instead of in late August with
less than three months ago. To be clear, this isn't
an argument about deservedness or why should personally love Kamala.
It's about strategy and winning in the face of unimaginable
electoral stakes.
Speaker 1 (26:25):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (26:26):
Now, the doctors point out that only Biden himself has
the power to drop out and choose to head off
chaos by anointing Harris. But Biden does listen to people
and the people that he listens to, listens to other people,
and that is the audience for the people reading this doc.
That's what this is circulating among. That was like the intention,
(26:46):
and they argue that if Biden does drop out, Democrats
have to unite quickly behind the elected successor, as opposed
to inviting this extended period of chaos. And although Kamala
has limitations in polls regarding her name recognition, she currently
wins any poll of alternative Democratic candidates by a very
wide margin. This doc dos pointed out that Kamala is
(27:08):
by no means a perfect candidate. She does have real deficits,
but they are mostly addressable. The doc mentions her Biden
level approval, rating her involvement with Biden's immigration shortcomings and
her kind of awkward camera moments reminiscent of a drunk
aunt and quote. After years of a relatively low profile,
voters don't see her as a strong leader for the country,
(27:29):
but running as a presidential candidate will allow Harris to
present herself in a more commanding light. She'll be a
prosecutor going up against a convicted felon, a woman fighting
against the man who ended Roe V. Wade unquote and
that is a lot of the tight sort of messaging
that they are promoting if Kamala does end up being
the option. A Morning consoled political poll on the vice
(27:49):
president from June reflects a number of advantages she would
have over Trump in a head to head match based
on his greatest vulnerabilities. A majority of voters se Kamala's
mentally fit, level headed, and prepare contrast to Trump and
even Biden, and a majority of voters trust Kamala on jobs, abortion,
climate change, and LGBTQ rights. Public opinion is already moving
(28:09):
towards Harris over Biden. Forty three percent of voters indicate
Harris is fit to run, compared to Biden's thirty five
And while the issue is complex and the distance here
is relative, she's broadly considered to be on Biden's left
on Israel Palestine, an issue where he has major vulnerabilities.
Kamala also has advantages with the younger and POC voters
that the Democrats are currently bleeding in the dock. Here
(28:31):
they contain some stats on this, saying Biden won the
twenty twenty election by just forty four thousand votes, and
most of those are votes that he is bleeding. A
New York Times cenpol in February found that Harris is
nearly ten points ahead of Biden with black voters, and
fifteen points up with Latino voters, twenty points up with
young voters. These are massive advantages. Now that is older data,
(28:53):
but it's probably worth some consideration. Part of the reason
why she is also favored among other Democratic contents is
that she has direct access to the Biden Harris campaign
war chest of over ninety one million dollars in cash,
which would create a smoother transition.
Speaker 1 (29:09):
Yeah, and is probably I mean again, just given the
amount of chaos that would be inherent in a totally
open convention, it just seems like the only feasible option.
Speaker 2 (29:20):
And what they're advocating for is that if Kamla takes
a position now or soon to now, she'll have an
extra month and massive structural advantages. Quote, if we can
unite behind Harris in July, we have an extra month
of party unity and message unity. That's a month where
we can keep the media focused on Donald Trump, Project
twenty twenty five and mega extremism instead of waiting in
(29:41):
dread for the next Biden misstep or talking about democrats
fighting it out to win delicate count Fear of racism
and sexism is playing an outsized role not supported by data.
The impact of sexism and racism on the vote is
marginal compared to the potential to make gains in the
crucial block that will decide the election. Right now. This
race hinges on alienated and unenthusiastic double haters who dislike
(30:04):
both Biden and Trump and want an alternative choice. Some
polls put the size of this group at twenty five
percent nationally, or even higher nearly thirty percent amongst.
Speaker 1 (30:13):
The basically everyone I know well.
Speaker 2 (30:16):
Especially among inconsistent voters who are likely who are likely
to decide the election in key battleground states. For these
double haters, vote choices being driven not by prejudice but
by anti enthusiasm for the two currently eighty year old
white men presented here as the only options. YEAH voters
more likely. These voters are also more likely to be young, Hispanic, black,
(30:36):
and women in urban or suburban areas, the exact kind
of voter profile that Kamala is gaining appeal with.
Speaker 1 (30:43):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (30:43):
And I find this little bit to be the most
compelling statement in this entire document. Because like that lays
out an actual map towards how Kamala would have a
better election viability than Biden, especially in the voters that
he's been bleeding dramatically in the past six seven months. Now.
The DOCA does close by saying, if Biden stays the course,
(31:03):
we need Kamala to be strong. The most likely outcome
is that President Biden declines to step back. In that case,
Kamala's role is more crucial than ever. She will be
the strong communicator on the ticket, especially on our most
important issue abortion. Second, many voters will understand her to
be Biden's near guaranteed successor, and we will need to
feel comfortable with her potential assent to the presidency to
(31:25):
vote for the Biden Harris ticket. For anyone in the
Biden's nominee, we must rally around him camp. It's essential
that we project confidence in his selection of a running
mate by one pushing the administration to stop sidelining Kamala,
by two promoting Kamala as the leader of the party
and country. Three be prepared to align with political and
financial support, and three debate over and ultimately organize around
(31:48):
a new running mate. Consolidation around Vice President Harris will
not guarantee victory in November. No option is free of
risk at this point. But this is our clearest path
to win. We should take it. And that's how the
document ends. And I like some of the arguments they
make here. I don't like Kamala as a person. I
think she is many many and I don't like cops,
(32:09):
but absolutely, especially if their messaging will be like Kamala
the prosecutor against Trump the felon, which I personally don't like.
Speaker 1 (32:16):
But that could work.
Speaker 2 (32:18):
That's not going to lose her important voters. That's not
going to lose her all of the anarchists who already
aren't going to vote.
Speaker 1 (32:23):
Like that, that might be a really good strategy, because
Americans do not feel the same way about prosecutors as
I do, and these you do right, like we have
to accept that at a certain point, I think so.
I I the think that's most frustrated to me about
the fact that it doesn't look like Biden's going to
step down is that like the smartest thing they could
(32:46):
do strategy wise would be to drop that announcement on
like Monday of next week and utterly like cut the
wind out of the sales of the r NC, Like
suddenly the biggest story is that and not you know,
everything that the Republicans are putting out, like you could
actually really do some damage to them, because there's there's
not really anything that they could do in response.
Speaker 2 (33:08):
And so much media attention right now is being focused
on Biden very clearly not being fit for office, and
all of that would go away if Kamala gets put
into the spot, then then then everyone will start focusing
once again on how bad Trump is. And I can
understand some of like the Biden camps like upsetedness at
at like the fact that currently there is just so
(33:30):
much attention on Biden and everyone kind of is ignoring Trump,
but that just is due to how poorly he himself
has been behaving like that, Like that that is ultimately
the Biden campaign's fault that they didn't plan for this constituency.
And if they want all of that like discourse to stop,
they have a very easy option to And it's just
reliant on Biden not being too personally prideful and acknowledging
(33:51):
that he's just too old for office and there are
better candidates out there. So yeah, that is that is
the current, that is the current situation on the rise
of the case Hive, something I at this point am
very skeptical to think will actually happen. But it may
be actually a viable strategy for the Democratic Party.
Speaker 1 (34:10):
Yep. I mean, we'll see what they actually do. Probably
keep running Joe Biden and hope that Americans panic enough
about Trump to But you know, we can all dream.
Speaker 2 (34:23):
I dream to that point. We could also dream that
like that, that like the delegates will just like rebel
against they're like polite duty. Yeah, by by not committing
to their to their non binding promises. Although that would
be extremely unprecedented and it would make the DNC a
lot more fun.
Speaker 1 (34:42):
Oh, we would. We would have a great DNC if
that were to go down. Yep.
Speaker 2 (34:46):
Anyway, well, we're gonna have fun at the R and
C instead.
Speaker 1 (34:49):
Yeah, we sure will. Garrison, You and I are going
to be on the ground in the exclusion zone and
at the convention itself where we cannot have backpacks or.
Speaker 2 (35:00):
Gas masks or canned food.
Speaker 1 (35:03):
But I might be able to carry a gun. Let
me see if they do reciprocity. Uh, where what is
this is Minnesota?
Speaker 2 (35:11):
No, this is not Minnesota.
Speaker 1 (35:12):
This is Wisconsin, Wisconsin.
Speaker 2 (35:15):
This is Milwaukee, Milwaukee.
Speaker 1 (35:17):
We can see how well prepared I am. Let me see.
That could make a fun episode all its own.
Speaker 2 (35:27):
I do have an idea for an episode that I
will mention to you off air that I really want.
Speaker 1 (35:34):
To do for the rn C. Wait, it looks like
yes with restrictions.
Speaker 2 (35:42):
Yeah, I love restrictions.
Speaker 1 (35:44):
That's great. We'll see what those are.
Speaker 2 (35:46):
Stay tuned to you, but the restriction.
Speaker 1 (35:48):
Stay tuned, everybody.
Speaker 2 (35:57):
It could happen here as a production of cool Zone Media.
More podcast from.
Speaker 1 (36:00):
Cool Zone Media, visit our website cool zonemedia dot com,
or check us out on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,
or wherever you listen to podcasts.
Speaker 2 (36:08):
You can find sources for It could Happen here, updated
monthly at coolzonemedia dot com slash sources. Thanks for listening.
It Could Happen Here News
Hosts And Creators
Robert Evans
Garrison Davis
James Stout
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