Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Col Zon Media.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Welcome to it could happen here. I'm Robert Evans, and
this is a podcast about things falling apart, which they
always seem to be these days, and in particular, this
is an episode about what to expect out of the
next six months to a year. If you're not sure
what else to do, try and spread calm. I first
(00:25):
learned this lesson back in twenty sixteen hanging out with
perennial Libertarian presidential candidate Vermin Supreme during the protests around
that year's Democratic Invention in Philadelphia. If you've never had
the pleasure of seeing Vermin at a protest, he's essentially
a rodeo clown for riot cops, and his example taught
me a lot about how to communicate to a group
of angry, scared people in tense situations. Those lessons came
(00:50):
in handy for me back in twenty twenty. But the
George Floyd Uprising is now almost five years in the past.
Trump is once again in power, very little to stand
between him and the exercise of a kind of arbitrary,
dictatorial violence that this nation has seldom seen within its
own borders, but as often sponsored elsewhere, including El Salvador,
(01:11):
where Trump has sent hundreds of American residents and plans
to send thousands, perhaps tens of thousands more. The purpose
of this essay is to provide my predictions for the
next six months to a year. What I'm writing here
is speculative, but it is based on the best data
I have available in numerous conversations I've had with activists,
current federal employees, former soldiers, and retired law enforcement. There
(01:36):
are a million places where I could start, but I
feel like the most responsible place to begin is by
answering this question, is now the time to panic? Last year,
after Biden's disastrous debate performance, I put out a podcast
essay titled Don't Panic. It was my most shared episode
of this podcast that year, and I felt pretty good
(01:57):
about the response until Trump again, and I found it
briefly impossible to take my own advice. Since January of
twenty twenty five, the fascist takeover has only accelerated, and
I have lost count of the number of people who've
asked me, is it time to panic? The answer to
that is still no, but not because there's no reason
(02:18):
to panic. In fact, panic is a natural reaction to
our present moment. If your fight or flight reflexes haven't
been triggered, well, they might be broken. Even so, don't panic,
because in combat and disasters, in any dangerous situation, you
might find yourself panic is what will kill you as
(02:38):
surely as anything else. There's a concept in military theory
I bring up often, something introduced to soldiers undergoing training today.
It's called the ODA loop. It describes the process people
go through while acting and reacting under fire, and particularly
while deciding how to act and react under fire. It
stands for observe, orient, decide and act. If you can
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interrupt any part of that loop, you can stop your
enemy from fighting back effectively. The basic principle of the
ODA loop functions on the grand strategy scale as well
as it does in a gunfight. This is the point
behind the flood the zone strategy, orchestrated by Stephen Miller
and the other intellectual luminaries behind Trump iiO. The fire
(03:23):
hose of outrage is to distract you from observing everything
that's happening, to keep you off balance so you can't
orient yourself, to stop you from deciding and acting. Elon
Musk's purchase of Twitter helped to supercharge the bullshit. Cannon
AI accelerated the spread of lies on social media beyond
all of our worst nightmares, and this has helped blind
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and divide the people who should have linked arms to
stop this shit before it got to the point that
it's at today. I want you to think of how
many prominent leftists have fallen repeatedly for right wing propaganda
like that Russia would never invade Ukraine, or that Trump
might actually be somehow better for Gaza. These and a
million other things have blinded and hobbled potential resistance. I
(04:09):
might also bring up the whole Maga communist movement, but
the less set about those people, the better. Meanwhile, columnists
at liberal legacy publications like The Times have fallen for
every hyped up story about transgender athletes or woke kids
on college campuses and the danger the liberal left poses
to free speech. They've denied genocide and demonized those who
(04:29):
protest against it, and too many elected Democrats have taken
their lead as the path of least resistance. Many have
pulled right for reasons far more sinister. The fact that
Gavin Newsom, governor of California, is hosting fascists on his
new podcast while mailing burner phones to tech CEOs points
towards something dark, immediate, deadly. We live now in the
(04:53):
culmination of a successful decades long plot two, in the
words of Curtis Jarvin, repeal the twentieth century and turned
this nation into a dictatorship where our lives and our
collective national arsenal are the personal property of some dudes
who inherited oil money or invested in Facebook back in
like two thousand and five. The early stages of the plan,
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of course, date back well before Peter Teele or Elon
Musk or Donald Trump. They began when a coalition of
would be oligarchs tried to overthrow FDR in what has
become known as the Business Plot, and were thwarted by
a Marine general named Smedley Butler. These men wanted revenge
for the New Deal, but they found seizing power at
the top harder than they'd hoped, and so they embarked
(05:38):
on a slower, bottom up approach. Hence the John Birch Society,
the creation of countless think tanks, and the generation's long
effort to stack the Supreme Court. The war on abortion
was a concerted step towards this plan. An artificial creation
alongside the birth of the religious right as a political coalition.
There was initially a small group of men at the
(05:59):
center of the web, guys like William Brignery Won and
William Brignery Do or Paul Wayrich. But the engine of
cultural and political change forged from the late forties to
the nineteen seventies was so successful that at some point
it became self perpetuating. And when a gaggle of tech
bros found themselves with more wealth than any humans that
ever held, the machine was there to mold them and
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to be used by them. It's all worked so damn
well that many people I know have lost hope entirely.
We're fucked, goes the script. They're going to send us
to the camps, and they can't be stopped, at least
not without apocalyptic bloodshed. Well that's not necessarily so. Now
people have already died as a result of this administration,
a lot of them, and that will continue to happen.
(06:45):
But a collapse into total carnage is not inevitable, nor
is a future that offers us nothing but a boot
upon our necks. Despite the money that went into building
that this is a new house made with cheap materials,
and there are already cracks in the foundation. So my
first prediction for the coming months is this, the cracks
will widen, and we'll talk about that, but first, as
(07:08):
we're obligated to do, here's some ads. Trump and the
men who swim in his wake signal only strength. Honesty
is neither in their interest nor a strong suit. But
Curtis Yarvin, chief profit of the neo Reactionaries and Peter
(07:31):
Teel's pet philosopher, is in a different position. He knows
people in power listen to some of what he has
to say, and over the last few months his profile
has risen enormously. I can take credit for an at
least tiny amount of that. Many normal liberals and elected
Democrats now know who he is. This exposes him to
a danger that was not present for him during Trump's
(07:52):
first term. If the current fascist salient should be pushed
back and this movement fails, there could be and should
be prosecutions, and he rightly fears that if this happens,
he might follow in the footsteps of Alfred Rosenberg, the
Nazi high theoretician who was executed at Nuremberg. That's why
on March sixth he published a messi sprawling, seven thousand
(08:14):
word essay titled Barbarians and Mandarins in his trademark nine
unreadable style. It comes with the subheading as soon as
it stops accelerating, it stalls and explodes. If you want
to spare yourself the headache of reading through one tenth
of a novel of Yarvins at best turgid prose, there's
a good article by the nerd Reich that breaks all
(08:36):
of this down. We'll link it in the show notes.
But the gist is that Jarvin thinks Musk and Trump
have been too slow, have embraced too many half measures,
and the whole authoritarian project is careening towards disaster. Quote.
Unless the spectacular earthquakes of January and February are dwarfed
in March in April by new and unprecedented abuses of
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the Richter scale, the Trump regime will start to win
and eventually dissipate. It cannot stay at its current level
of power, which is too high to sustain but too
low to succeed. It has to keep doing things that
have never been done before. As soon as it stops accelerating,
it stalls and explodes. Now, the weeks since have seen
massive and rising public awareness of Seacott the terrorism detention
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facility in El Salvador being used as a concentration camp
by the Trump regime. This might rightly be called a
new and unprecedented abuse. But there's a couple of issues here,
at least as far as Yarvin sees them. For one thing,
the people targeted there have been migrants, people who are
in the US, either illegally or in the US on
(09:41):
visas that have been revoked, people who have been accused
of being part of Trindagua, but not the people that
Jarvin wants to see liquidated, because, as he writes in
this column, the thing that he thinks the Trump administration
should be doing right now is quite literally gassing media
personalities and politicians who don't align with his viewpoint, basically
(10:02):
literally killing the opposition. And since he's shown to be
unwilling to do that, the fact that he's shipping people
to concentration camps on its own isn't terrifying enough.
Speaker 1 (10:13):
Now.
Speaker 2 (10:13):
The other thing that's concerning Yarbon is that while the
use of this facility in El Salvador as a foreign
concentration camp by the Trump regime is terrifying and is unprecedented.
It's also been met with a significant response, one that
burges on unprecedented itself. I'm not just talking about the
protests or of the recent Supreme Court ruling ordering a
(10:35):
temporary halt of such deportations. I'm referring to something else
that's happened due to the sheer panic caused by the
knowledge that our president has a concentration camp and has
been talking about shipping US citizen dissidents there. I'm talking
about stuff like the fact that formerly conservative columnist Bill
Crystal is now calling for the outright abolition of ice
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and the arch neoliberal mealymouth David Brooks calling for a
general strike in the pages of the New York Times
while quoting from the Communist Manifesto. This is more than
just a vibe shift. It's an open realization and acceptance
by prominent people who are neither radical nor revolutionaries that
any action, even the formerly unimaginable, might be necessary and
(11:19):
justified in this regime. Now, make no mistake. First off,
this is because a lot of these people are worried
about their own privileges going away under a dictatorial regime,
but that doesn't change the fact that this is a
crack in the very foundation of the authoritarian power structure.
Jarvin is scared then, because we weren't supposed to be
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here now. Harvard was supposed to have folded like Columbia
and then have been slowly and quietly liquidated. The tame
press was supposed to turn wholly for the regime or
be disappeared, not to quote Karl Marx, and urge people
into the streets to do a general strike. So I
don't find all this cheery because I think David Brooks
is going to become shithead Shay Govara. I am embraced, however,
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by the failure that this represents for them and above
us who seek unchecked dominance. Cracks are also visible in
the recent history of Elon Musk, who has watched the
value of the stock that underpins his whole empire collapse.
He fought desperately to convince Trump not to go through
with the tariffs that would punish it further. The result
we see Trump assuring his inner circle that Elon is
(12:24):
on the way out, while Musk himself prepares to step
back from doge In the hope that it will somehow
protect the remainder of his ambitions. These are all good signs,
and the damage will continue to spread. However, and this
brings me to my next prediction. The Empire's gonna strike back.
We are in for a hot summer, my friends, and
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there's no way around that. I mean this in the
literal sense that it will probably be the hottest summer
on record, although that fact will be true of every
subsequent summer in our lives. But I also mean this
in the sense that things are going to cook off
in the streets very soon. This is something the administration
has quite openly been waiting to see. Trump has made
no secret of his desire to use the Insurrection Act
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not only at the border, but to send US troops
and US cities to crush riots and punish leftist demonstrators.
This was a desire hatched in reaction to the George
Floyd uprising, and it always seems to be envisioned by
the right as targeted against black clad antifa types. The
reality is that anti fascists have not been a consistent
presence on the ground around the country for some time,
(13:27):
at least not organizing in the way that they were
back when antifa was a buzzword. There are numerous reasons
for this, but the biggest is that the fascist movement
has moved beyond waving flags in the street and getting
into fistfights to try and scare people. A lot of
them are running federal law enforcement agencies in the military. Now,
Proud boys just tain't a priority, not for those on
(13:48):
the left who want to stop this, or frankly, for
the administration. I expect protests around the country in the
coming months for several reasons, but the likeliest event to
provoke severe civil disruption is a right and food prices
in the rise of everything else in price, as well
as a collapsing economy courtesy of the president's tariffs. There
are already numerous signs of this, both in terms of
(14:10):
the volume of shipping coming into the United States and
early signs of collapsing crop yields in the United States.
And this is where a study of history helps one out,
because nothing but nothing breaks down regimes like rising bread prices,
and any attempt to crack down will be stymy by
the fact that a decent chunk of the elites who
backed Trump before will be suffering too. Obviously, the people
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closest to him are making bank off the economic upswings
and downswings over the whole tariff issue. But there's a
lot of other people, people who supported him, people who
thought he had their back, who aren't quite close enough
to power, and they're watching Trump shoot their own fortunes
in the kneecap because they built their money on free trade.
I won't pretend to know where things are going to
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pop off or will be the hottest, but the evidence
shows the regime at least SPEC's Washington d C to
play a central role in what comes next. Republican Congress
members recently reintroduced a bill to repeal DC's self rule,
and Trump appointed Ed Martin to be the city attorney,
a man who, in the words of USA Today columnist
Chris Brennan quote, lacks experience but loves revenge. Now, the
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fact that Elon Musk and his Doze cronies left so
many in the city and the surrounding area unemployed after
their purge of the administrative state means that there's an
even higher number of motivated, angry people with free time
and experiencing organizing large, complex systems who have nothing to
do right now. A similar set of circumstances brought us
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to the twenty twenty uprisings. This was not just a
product of the months of isolation, or of the brutality
of George Floyd's murder, but of the sheer number of
people who were out of work and who were finally
given a chance to take out their anxiety at an
authoritarian president tightening his grip. And today that grip is
even tighter, the danger more real. We have a president
(16:02):
openly discussing his desire to put American citizens in a
foreign concentration camp. Trump and his inner circle are hoping
for protests that stay isolated to DC and perhaps a
few major Blue cities, Portland and the like. This would
provide an opportunity to send in the troops, to utilize
the Insurrection Act, to shoot people in the street, and
to send some ringleaders off to l Salvador. This would
(16:26):
be the riskiest option for Trump in some ways. Pete
Hegseth has not been a competent or popular Secretary of Defense,
and asking US troops to fire on protesters opens up
the risk that some junior officer might bulk at that order,
which could create a cascading chain of disobedience. Such things
have sparked rapid collapse in other dictatorships throughout history. There's
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also the chance that spectacular and comprehensive violence by the
military might succeed and thus strangle any protest movement in
the cradle. So we might call this the high risk,
high reward option. And I should note that Don Trump
has more than a few times in the past chosen
the high risk, high reward option, so I don't consider
this unlikely. But it won't be lost on Trump or
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his cronies that the violence which met the first protest
in twenty twenty provoked the largest domestic uprising and living memory.
People have not forgotten this, and some blue state Democrats
have even made let's say, confusing noises to that effect.
Case in point, Governor Bob Ferguson of Washington just signed
to bill barring other state National Guard units from entering
(17:30):
Washington without his approval unless they were mobilized by the President. Now,
as that last part might key you when on, this
bill doesn't have a lot of legal force or any
really at all, but it's a sign that even fairly
milk toast elected Democrats are starting to consider the real
possibility of a federal invasion of their states. The President
has discussed sending out of state troops into blue cities before,
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largely in the context of cracking down on immigration and
sanctuary cities. This is all dangerous language, but going first
other than just language carries risk for the regime too.
I would not be shocked if we were to see
the Texas National Guard or whoever, whichever state occupying let's
say Chicago, after federal law enforcement makes good on the
(18:13):
threats that have been made by members of the Trump
administration to arrest governors who aid in a bet undocumented
migrants like JB. Pritzker, and an act like that would
surely spark mass protests in Chicago and very likely elsewhere.
The fact that a move like that would have such
a risk of sparking mass resistance as well as further
(18:33):
legal challenges, might keep the Trump administration focused on smaller
fish and less dangerous outrages, at least for the time being.
And if that's the route they choose, I think something
different might be likely. And I call this potential path
forward the pressure cooker, and we'll talk about that. But first,
here's more ads. When public unrest exploded in twenty twenty.
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It did so after four solid years of build up.
If you'll remember, the earliest fascist anti fascist street clashes
of that period, started before the twenty sixteen elections, were
largely focused around speeches and campuses by right wing provocateurs
and dueling demonstrations in a handful of cities. The first
wave of such activity crested in Charlottesville twenty seventeen with
(19:28):
tragic results, but the vibe it set and the people
it trained continued to take part in street actions, and
many of them formed the infrastructural core of the movement
that exploded onto the scene after George Floyd's murder. The
last year of serious protests have focused more on the
genocide and Gaza than anything, and it's not coincidental that
the first wave of deportations have heavily targeted legal residents
(19:50):
who took part in those demonstrations. Since Trump took office
and DOZE started doing its thing, there have been more
large scale demos that focused directly on the regime. Now,
these have been quite manageable from the regime's point of view,
and they have not yet attracted the same kind of
crackdown but that won't remain the case as people grow
more desperate. Any fool can see that the apparatus of
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repression constructed to punish genocide protesters will be turned on democrats,
former federal employees, and people who are just hungry and
pissed about rising food prices. However, this represents another tightrope
scenario for the regime. These demonstrations are large, and unlike
student protests against Israel, the media has proved less eager
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to marginalize the participants as extremists. As time goes on
and things get worse, folks who last year scoffed at
college students occupying campus buildings may themselves consider if perhaps
it might be time to fox some shit up. This
will be an uneven process with sudden leaps forward and
pulls back, and it will provoke an equally uneven state response.
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There will be attempts to send so called instigators and
organizers overseas to will solve or unless the public reaction
to this, which is building as I type, continues to
escalate to the extent that it becomes unfeasible. If so,
there are ample domestic locations to detain or even disappear
those the regime considers dangerous. First on the chopping block
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will be the people whose heads are currently closest to
the blade, organizers and demonstrators against genocide, whose citizenship is
not at all in question. I expect if large disruptive
demonstrations do threaten the administration's hold, they will also start
to our target Antifa again, which will start with the
targeting of longtime activists, many of whom would have been
(21:36):
people arrested or at least heavily surveilled in twenty twenty. However,
it won't end there, and it will quickly expand to
elected Democrats, new people organizing protests, folks who have never
had anything to do with any of the kind of
anti fascist actions that so captivated Fox News back in
twenty twenty. I will be shocked if we make it
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more than another year without a serious attempt to brand
Antifa demastic terror organization, and if that succeeds in a
way that has legal force, then the fact that there
is no such organization won't matter. Trump's Feds will do
what we've watched Ice do with Trendagua. They'll break down
the door of whoever they wish argue tattoos or possessions
of certain literature or whatever is proof of membership, and
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then those who survive the raids will find themselves in
the most restrictive detention the regime feels secure placing them in.
If things follow what I suspect is the likeliest path.
We will watch this process ebb and flow over the
next several months each spring and summer. Protests will grow
and peak in the hottest months, with new cities and
tactics being attempted regularly by groups constantly reeling from raids
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that are devastating and terrifying, but due to the incompetence
of an FBI whose investigative capacity has been neutered, fail
to really disrupt things. As the weather cools off, exhausted
activists will lick their wounds and make new plans. Scattered
acts of disruption carried out by small groups or individual
cells occur year round, but I expect large scale demonstrations
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and clashes between demonstrators and law enforcement to follow a
pattern not so different from what Afghanistan veterans knew was
fighting season, hot summers of mass activity, winters of raids,
and experimentation to scout holes for the next year's offensive,
and as time goes on, the energy will build, the
tension will build, and of course we might find ourselves
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reaching towards something that explodes in the not too distant future,
perhaps a year or two down the line. Now, of course,
none of this will occur in a vacuum or independent
of the news churn that we've been drowning in for years.
And this brings me to my next prediction, which is
the coming of politics as unusual. I apologize for coming
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back to the David Brooks of it all, but seeing
a man who in twenty seventeen wrote the Trump had
changed and we really needed to stop stressing out over him,
and then wrote a column attacking millennials for their tribalism.
Call for a general strike is a sign, and it's
not a sign that Brooks has gotten smarter. It's a
sign that we've entered radical times, and that radicalization spares
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not even the centrist. If the worst case scenario occurs
in a few weeks from now, US soldiers are gunning
down demonstrators while ice officers krt elected Democrats off the
Seacott feel free to disregard this passage. But if the
somewhat slower path prevails, I expect to see more politicians
and news editors chase viewers as they sprint left or
at least away from the dissolving center. We've watched this
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process occur on the right during the Biden years, and
to a degree it is still occurring out of a
fear of reprisals under the Trump regime. I'm finalizing the
script on the Day sixty Minutes producer Bill Owens step
down over interference from paramount executives into his coverage of
Donald Trump. But the polls have started moving against the right.
Trump's public approval on immigration policy is under water for
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the first time in years, and his approval on everything
else is, while not always at record lows, diving with
significant speed. The next several months of shipping data, as
well as concerning early reporting on farm yields, suggests a
near future in which a lot less will be available
for everyone. We saw what a rising price of eggs
did to Biden, and we've also seen Senator Chris van
(25:14):
Holland go almost overnight from a marginal figure in US
politics to one of the most famous Democrats in the nation,
all because he had the modest courage to fly to
l Salvador and call the president's use of a foreign
black site what it was. There will be more people
like Van Holland who display courage previously unseen in a
moment of trial. But much more than that, there will
be opportunists, those who see the wind blowing and chase
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the approval of crowds more willing to countenance radical action
in the streets than they were a year ago. Most
politicians and most thought leaders in the old media are reactive,
and I'm not saying that this will change, merely that
what they react to will change because of who is
in charge now, and because of the desperation of the
times brought on by Republican policies, which is going to
(25:59):
pay to target on the backs of conservative leaders as
large as the targets they'd been painting on the backs
of dissidence. And all of this means one thing, which
is we're approaching the age of weird terror. So much
has happened in this shitty, stupid year that I think
we've all forgotten. Twenty twenty five opened with a military
veteran blowing himself up at a cyber truck in front
(26:21):
of the Trump Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas. His
reasoning was based as much on the numerous head injuries
he'd suffered in his service as it was on his
exposure to right wing propaganda, which convinced him that the
Democrats needed to be dealt with. But he saw things
clearly enough to know that yet another mass shooting or
self emulation, or even a run of the mill bomb
wouldn't have garnered him or his manifesto any attention. So
(26:44):
instead he picked a cyber truck and a Trump building,
symbols of the two most viral men of our very
stupid era, and he blew one of those up in
front of the other. And by gummet, we all did
pay attention for a few days, at least late last year.
And Anna, miss gunman the government believes to be Luigi Mangione,
was even more successful at holding our attention with an
(27:05):
even stranger attack, a brazen and igh perfectly executed assassination
carried out by a man with a dazzling smile and
the wisdom to pick the most universally hated target that
exists today, a healthcare ceo. We have all watched so
many mass shootings at schools, at grocery stores, nightclubs, everywhere
imaginable that they've lost the ability to shock us, But
(27:27):
targeted assassinations of people at the top of the food
chain are so rare that they can't help but draw eyeballs,
and sheer, rollicking strangeness like we saw in Vegas, has
a captivating power all its own. We will see more
of both kinds of attacks in the months to come.
The arson attempt on Governor Shapiro's home, bizarre at least
for the extensive damage done, might be seen as another
(27:48):
data point on this list, But as new figures rise
to prominence within new protest movements, we will see attempts
to kill them. Furious and deranged Trump supporters armed with
cars and guns and Trump branded by rocket dives will
do as they've been doing, and this part won't be new.
What I do expect will be new is the increased
threat felt by the oligarchs at the top of the system,
(28:09):
as intelligent and patient young people continue to plot ways
to go after them and the places and times where
they feel invulnerable. And I also expect that editors and
journalists will continue to learn that these actions draw eyeballs
more than almost anything else. And while all that's going on,
the truly unbalanced among us will find ways to hitchhike
(28:30):
off the well publicized turmoil coming our way and make
their own confounding statements. There will be public suicides and
attacks utilizing weapons and tools we can't yet imagine, at
least not openly on a podcast without receiving a visit
from some friendly Alphabet boy or another. I don't know
what exactly to expect beyond the unexpected and the very
(28:51):
very silly. And of course, as we talk about weird terrorism,
I don't mean to discount the Nazi accelerationist types here.
They'll keep trying if they want to raise above the
chatter and an even more crowded media ecosystem. Even they're
going to find ways to get weird with it after all,
and attack No One Notices isn't likely to accelerate much
of anything. And I guess that's what I've got right now.
(29:14):
I've got ten pages or so on what I see coming.
I didn't come up with a smooth, sexy ending for
this like a writer should, because I'm tired and thinking
about this isn't fun. But I did a lot, and
there you are. I suppose the thing you're asking now
is what the fuck do I do about it? And
you know, let's what we talk about a lot on
(29:35):
this show. Organize with your friends, get involved, find ways
to help people, take us, stop the bleed glass and
the love of God, keep your eyes open.
Speaker 1 (29:49):
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