November 14, 2024 • 32 mins
James and Mia discuss what we know so far about foreign policy under the second Trump administration.
Sources:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/12/us/civilian-deaths-war-isis.html
https://www.donaldjtrump.com/issues
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-donald-trump-trade-war-second-presidency-kamala-harris/
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2024-trump-interview-transcript/
https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/10/09/woodward-war-biden-putin-nuclear-use-trump-russia-logan-act/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/11/04/trump-mexico-tariff-trade/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pMrVdFnjEjs&t=17s
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Also media.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
All right, welcome to it could happen here. And what
it is today is me James and Mia Wong. Hi mere, hello, Hi.
What we're here to talk to you about today is
something else, which, despite my positive tone of voice, is
sad and depressing.
Speaker 3 (00:21):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
Yeah, it's just a lot of that, and like we
don't want you to be too sad. It doesn't bear
moping around, you know, like we've got time to get
organized and that's what we should be doing.
Speaker 3 (00:32):
And also like just get.
Speaker 2 (00:34):
Out and go outside and see your friends and do
things that bring you joy. Like we'll work out how
to get through it. So you know, like, yeah, I
think it's really easy. And I found myself doing this
stay at home and be sad, but don't Like I
went out with some friends for a hike on Friday,
and I feel so much better. So I would advise
you to do that. Maybe you're listening on your hike.
That would be fun. Actually, I think if I was hiking,
(00:54):
I would I would skip this one and listen to
the birds.
Speaker 3 (00:57):
And you know, well, I mean.
Speaker 4 (01:01):
You know, if you want the ideological framing event, the
ideological framing of it is that morale is a terade
a struggle, yes, and it is very easy to lose
if in morale is absolutely terrible.
Speaker 3 (01:14):
So yeah, we got four years.
Speaker 2 (01:16):
We can't be being moping around like we will get
through it.
Speaker 3 (01:20):
We will find ways to make it better.
Speaker 2 (01:22):
And part of the way we do that yet is
keeping amoral up and doing things that bring us joy.
Thing that brings me joy is talking about roch Java,
the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, and we're
going to talk about that today. So we're talking about
Donald Trump's foreign policy in his second term. So his
previous foreign policy was a pretty mixed bag, and he
(01:44):
bombed the shift out of the Islamic State, right cool
based he also bombed the shit out of thousands of
Syrian and Iraqi civilians.
Speaker 3 (01:51):
Not so cool.
Speaker 2 (01:53):
Also, we should note, not so different from every other
president this century. Bombing civilians has been pretty much the
the through line of American foreign policy in that part
of the world for a very long time. In particular
in the Trump administration I'm want to talk about, there
was a single US strike cell called Talent Anvil. I
think they were mainly like CAG guys from what I read,
(02:15):
so Delta Force guys Army Special Forces guys who were
making these decisions. They hired office building in Syria, and
these guys were constantly looking at drone feeds and various
other information and then calling in strikes on various targets. Right,
I'm not sure if they had the CAG guys in
the watching computers. I'm not entirely sure, and like, well
(02:36):
they didn't have someone else who knows, But this strike,
Celle dropped more than one hundred and twenty thousand bombs
and Jesus Christ, yeah, yeah, the amount of ordinance we
dropped on Syria is insane. Its circumvented procedures are in
place to prevent Philian death. In order to do so,
they had embedded lawyers who were supposed to approve the strikes.
(02:58):
But these lawyers tried to raise the alarm that some
of these strikes were reckless. They weren't hitting things that
were actual targets, and they sort of ran into an
organizational brick wall. At some point, pilots even refused to
engage targets because they didn't think of Jesus, Yeah, which
is it's not usual.
Speaker 4 (03:16):
Yeah, like that'd be pretty fucked for a fighter pilot
to be like, no, I don't think I've ever heard
of that before.
Speaker 2 (03:24):
No, So I found this out in uh well, I
think it was the New York Times. New York Times,
a pretty good investigation which we linked in our sources.
And yeah, it's like a throwaway line, but I would
love to hear more about that. It could have been
a drone pilot too, which is slightly different. Gig, I
guess you know, if you're sitting north of Las Vegas,
they're flying a drone kind of kind of a different scene.
(03:47):
So in the battle to defeat the Islamic State, thousands
of innutescent people lost their lives as we reached the
end of that battle. Donald Trump, who's president at a time,
personally called urda one who's the president of circuit right.
In late twenty eighteen, Trump asked the third one, if
we withdraw our soldiers, can you.
Speaker 3 (04:04):
Clean up isis? That's a quote?
Speaker 2 (04:06):
According to an unnamed Turkish official interviewed by Reuters, at
one replied that Turkish forces were capable of a mission. Quote,
then you do it, Trump told him and us as
National Security Advisor John Bolton, who was also on the
call to quote start work for withdrawal of US troops
from Syria. What this resulted in was US troops pulling
(04:27):
out from some locations in Syria, right, local people throw
tomatoes at them. Even worse than the tomatoes were the
fact that it gave NATO's second largest army, which is Turkey,
of course, free reign to attack the Autonomous Administration North
in Essyria, which it did in twenty eighteen it did
again at twenty nineteen. Those two operations to claim considerable
(04:49):
ground in Syria cost countless civilian lives. Continue to perpetrate
human rights abuses to rehabilitate people from ISIS and other
Jahadi groups as Turkish Free Syrian Army, and they kill
some people who were people I care about, and I
continue to care about the cause of Rajava or Autonomous
(05:09):
Administration in North New Syria very deeply, and and it
really fucking sucks to think about the potential of the
US abandoning those people again, not that Biden has done
very much. Yeah, now, I think this anecdote, right of
what Trump does with one tells us a lot about
his approach to foreign policy, which is he really sees
it as very transactional, which is no different from everything
(05:31):
else he does. I guess like he's a very transactional person,
and he seems really only to be concerned about what
he can get out of it. So like in this case,
I guess he wants to say he bought US troops
home from Syria, like he's anti war. This is one
of his things, he says now, right, but he's prepared
to also in the case of the bombing, Right, he's
(05:53):
not so concerned with civilian casualties as long as he
can claim that he was the one who defeated ISIS. Right,
abomber couldn't do it. He did it, and he did
it on a pile of civilian remains, and also using
chiefly the Syrian Democratic.
Speaker 3 (06:06):
Forces, right, not US forces. There were US forces on
the ground.
Speaker 2 (06:10):
They were engaged in combat, but in minuscule numbers compared
to SDF, who lost fifteen thousand of their children in
a battle against ISIS. I think Trump would be very
willing to admit that he's transactional, right, That's kind of
his brand, is like America first and fuck everyone else.
So I think he'll probably be similar in this term. Right,
(06:32):
he will act unilaterally, He'll pivot whenever the fuck, he
feels like it. He will continue with his affection for
strong men and dictators all around the world. But a
lot of stuff has changed since Trump's first term, and
I think it's illustrative for us to think about how
he will engage with things that have changed.
Speaker 3 (06:48):
So what has changed.
Speaker 2 (06:50):
There's a much larger conflict between Russia and Ukraine now,
and that conflict has been seen massive and overt support
both from the USA and for the rest of NATO.
There's been a revolution in Mema. I suppose he doesn't
know that.
Speaker 4 (07:04):
Yeah, I really doubt maybe some of the like weird
pro coup meaning from the right guard to him, Yeah, perhaps.
Speaker 2 (07:12):
Or like, I mean, the parallels between the CO and
Memma and January sixth are pretty obvious, right, Okay, Like
give January sixth to the landing. It lived a lot
like that, except that it was a military party not
just a political party. The Islamic State doesn't exist as
a territory identity, but it very much does exist as
a terrorist group, which continues to and has actually increased
(07:33):
its activity this month, with sleeper cells, continued suicide bombings,
continued attacks, and the SDF continue with their anti Issis
operations without US support, those would be harder. And so
we have to ask, I guess on what Trump's going
to do with these things? And I want to look
at a few different issues and pick apart what Trump
(07:57):
said on his campaign website, pick apart what he said
on the campaign trail, and then look at who he's
appointed so far. We're recording this on Tuesday the twelfth,
So if someone gets appointed before you hear this, that's
why we've missed them out. So I guess to start
with Trump's foreign policy, we should talk about his number
one like peer competitor, which is China in his eyes, right,
(08:18):
not a big China appreciator. So I looked at his
campaign website for this, which really has some just incredible
use of capital letters.
Speaker 3 (08:26):
He just fucking does what he wants. It's wild to see.
Speaker 2 (08:29):
So chiefly, one of the things that he's been on
about for a while now is tariffs on Chinese make goods. Right,
as means the foreign policy, Yeah, we just we talked
about this last episode. Yeah, you will have heard about
tariffs at this point. Yeah, So, as we've previously mentioned, right,
he's talked about the tariffs. These tariffsould cost a lot
of money, and they would increase the cost of you
(08:50):
going shopping.
Speaker 4 (08:51):
Yeah, and they would probably destroy vast whilst of the
global economy, yes, both the Chinese and the American economy, Yes, yes,
sort of implode.
Speaker 2 (09:00):
And then all these countries in Africa and you know,
me and La for instance, exports a lot of these
rare earth metals to China, right, and a lot of
countries in Africa do too. Aside from the economic sort
of aggression, it stands on, Taiwan is weird, which is
normally where we would like expect to see the most
like physical friction between US and China. Right. Mike Pompeo
(09:22):
has pressed for the USA to formally recognize Taiwan before,
which would be a step, but you know that there'd
be a pretty big swing. Trump, on the other hand,
seems to want Taiwan to pay the United States for
being into ally right now.
Speaker 4 (09:36):
Yeah, then this is like one of his big sort
of foreign policy principles is like try to get people
to pay him for stuff, because that's sort of the
only way his brain works. But Rember, this was NATO
a lot, whereas this whole line on NATO that like
NATO should be like paying us because people like you're
not spaying enough on defense, so we're like paying all
the defense budgets. This is like one of his kind.
Speaker 3 (09:57):
Of Yeah, it's been his like hobbyhole.
Speaker 4 (10:00):
Yeah, like floats around at his brain sort of colliding
with its walls.
Speaker 3 (10:04):
Yeah, empty space. Yeah. Yeah, like a big bung ball.
Speaker 2 (10:07):
Ironically, like in the time that Trump's been out of
of is Russian aggression has led native members to spend
more on defense, yeah, rather than Donald Trump lambasting them.
So one of his big things is that Taiwan should
pay the United States. But it would seem very unlikely
that he if he's not going to abandon Taiwan, I
think because it gives him a place to grandstand on China.
Speaker 4 (10:29):
Yeah, and also, like you know, I mean, one of
the things about Trump is that one of the best
ways to sort of influence him is just get a
world leader in a room with him alone. Yes, but unfortunately,
well fortunately for us, Trump does not speak Chines easy,
and she doesn't seem to like him very much.
Speaker 2 (10:47):
So yeah, yes, we won't be here. We won't be
joining the PRC anytime soon. China, along with Russia right
to countries we've spoken about. Most of both make big
plays in Africa. Russia has re branded what was Wagner
it's Africa Core, and they're sort of providing support to
regimes that lack en afflegitimacy to exist otherwise. Yeah, they
(11:10):
are like classic mercenary shit, like it's your state illegitimate
and does it lack the capacity to do the violence
it needs to maintain itself. Don't worry hereris herism psychopaths
from Russia.
Speaker 4 (11:22):
Yeah, And there's just a lot of people, I think
because like a lot of these sort of governments will
kind of like do their like like put a red
beret on and start doing their anti imperialist cosplay. And
then you like read the like the fine print of
the contracts they've signed with like Africa Core, a thing
that like you expect to be spelled like Africa and
(11:43):
Core with a K like ko rps like and it's like, oh, okay,
so like they've signed away a bunch of the country's
mineral rights, Like they've signed away a bunch of these
specific minds to these mercenary groups. It's like, oh okay,
so this is like also this is also just imperial
it's just new management.
Speaker 2 (12:01):
Yeah, exactly, Yeah, it's just different imperialism. And then China
has big plays in Africa too, right, Like I've personally
seen a lot of Chinese own minds in Africa, Chinese
roads in Africa. China does also like offer infrastructure. Chinese
has a kind of quid pro quo. It doesn't come
in like with the violence like Russia does. It comes
in with that will build your hospital if we can
have all your natural resources. US policy in Africa is
(12:25):
pretty much to stop those two countries getting too much influence.
The Biden administration is as many liberals are right, there's
actually not that much difference between what Biden and Trump
will do in Africa. The difference is Biden is smart
enough not to say it. Trump's ability to do anything
useful in Africa is going to be masked by his
massive racism, Like when he says things like shithole countries.
(12:47):
It becomes a lot harder for the US to do
anything in Africa that isn't tinged by that, right, Like,
it doesn't make that sort of imperialist ambition more obvious.
US politicians rarely talk about they were any campaign or
what they were going to do in Africa. And so
pretty much the only things we're going to hear from
Donald Trump, but Africa, I would imagine, are going to
(13:09):
be when he lets his racism out. Yeah, that will
have results for like US credibility. Also, my guess is
we see intensifications of sort of US drone strikes, particularly
in the Horn, and we see like like all of
the stuff that Biden is doing, but worse and killing
even more people somehow. Yeah, I would imagine that we
will see these more aggressive throne strikes, especially against like
(13:30):
Islamist groups in Africa. The US has special Forces deployments
in a few places in Africa, which will probably maintain
I would imagine, like, I don't think those are like
things that Trump would He wouldn't see any benefit from
stopping them, I guess, and it.
Speaker 3 (13:44):
May not even know about them.
Speaker 2 (13:46):
So yeah, I think we will see little change in Africa,
would be my guess.
Speaker 4 (13:51):
Yeah, my oldly worse.
Speaker 2 (13:53):
Yeah, yeah, I talk of mildly worse.
Speaker 4 (13:56):
Mire.
Speaker 2 (13:57):
The thing that makes these podcasts mildly worse is our
obligation to pivot to advertisements, which we must do now.
Speaker 3 (14:03):
That was a great one, holding out on you for
three years. You have a good ad pivots.
Speaker 2 (14:09):
Yeah, well, there it is. That's what we've got for you.
All Right, we're back. So I want to talk about Europe.
As you've heard in the Tariff's episode, right, he wants
to put tariffs on European goods. European Union is going
(14:30):
to slap tariffs right back on American goods. That doesn't
really help anyone. It will make exporting from the USA
very very hard. One thing that the USA might stop
exporting is is weapons to Ukraine. It's a little unclear.
Trump he called Olenski the greatest salesman on earth, but
it was also claimed that he can personally end the
war in twenty four hours. I don't think that means
(14:52):
that he will be deploying himself to the down Bass
like a like a like a gun dam. But he
claims he can do this with his negotiating skills. This
seems unlikely. To put it mildly, I don't think that
it would be possible to end this war in twenty
four hours if both sides declared peace right now, getting
communications to their frontline troops would be a challenge in
(15:13):
twenty four hours in some places. Yeah, So the way
I interpret this and I may be wrong here is
that he is likely to leverage the support that the
United States gives to Ukraine in order to force Zelensky
into an unfavorable settlement, which would achieve his goal of
a being able to say he stopped giving American money
(15:35):
to Ukraine, which has been a big talking point for
the like every time you start with the western North
Carolina right up to the hurricane or these Republicans sort
of talking points were like, oh, well, all the money
is in Ukraine, so we can't have fucking MREs for
people in western North Carolina, Like FEMA has no money
because we sent Ukraine some memphors. This is very silly, right,
(15:57):
It's not a zero sum game. It's not really a
reasonable critique, but it's one that Trump has kind of
managed to stick in the culture was his base seems
to see the money going to Ukraine is directly coming
from things that would otherwise be going to them, which
he would benefit from it if he could bring this
war to a close, right j d Vance has mentioned
(16:17):
a demilitarized zone in between Russia.
Speaker 3 (16:21):
And Ukraine, which.
Speaker 2 (16:23):
Yeah, he's gonna minister the DMZ, Like yeah, like did
we really want this? Are we going to have troops
out like we do in South Korea for you know
when when was a career around the nineteen fifty seventy years, right,
And I don't think that's really really what they want.
Speaker 3 (16:39):
The think what DMC is. No one actually likes them. No,
this sucks, It sucks. Yeah, they're awful.
Speaker 2 (16:44):
It's just a bit of land that you can yeat
weapons over each other, like especially in like modern warfare,
that they're not that effective at stopping to be bull fighting. Right,
But very funny that North's career will be two for
two on DMZs in wars it has been involved with
huge up for them. He essentially seems to be advocating
(17:05):
for exactly the peace settlement that Putin has proposed and
that has been rejected multiple times. Several sources I've seen
suggest that Trump has spoken to Putin quite a few
times since leaving office. This His plan for Ukraine certainly
seems closer to the Russian one than the Ukrainian one,
the Ukrainian one being stop invading us and go home,
(17:27):
and the Russian one being, well, we'll just keep all
the stuff we've taken so far and then add a
buffer zone in between. And Ukraine can keep whatever's left
of its country.
Speaker 1 (17:35):
Right.
Speaker 2 (17:36):
What's interesting to me is what other NATO members will
do in the event of the US reducing its AID.
I would suspect that they will try and step up
and meet that gap. It might also result in the
US put certain restrictions on its AID, right, how it
can be used, where it can be used crucially, Right,
they don't like Ukraine using things to attack in Russia proper.
(18:00):
They don't mind am using them to attack Russian forces,
but not within Russia. I did see a picture yesterday
of a I think it was three guys from Rogue
I think it's called, which is a unit within the
International Legion who had been killed within Russia. And they
had a lot of like eighty fours and things like that, right,
like US or anti tank weapons.
Speaker 3 (18:20):
But the United States.
Speaker 2 (18:21):
Doesn't want Ukraine using the long range artillery and stuff
it's given it to yeat projectiles at Moscow. I can
see a situation where if the US draws down some
bit AID, European allies of Ukraine might not play some
of those restrictions on their AID, and that could lead
to some interesting complications for Russia. Right If Ukraine is
(18:44):
more effective, Like if they get more aid from Europe
and Europe doesn't place restrictions on the aid, they could
potentially strike Russia within Russia, which is not going to
be good for Putin and it's probably not going to
be good for like bringing I mean, unless they can
deal some really crippling blows, it might not be good
for bringing the war to an end.
Speaker 3 (19:00):
But maybe it will.
Speaker 2 (19:00):
Maybe they've they've done some pretty effective things with not
a huge amount so far.
Speaker 4 (19:04):
I don't know, maybe get lucky on a strike on
the Kremlin or something.
Speaker 2 (19:08):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, just the one like I mean, yeah,
I'm sure that would be their strategy if they wouldn't
have they didn't have restrictions, would be to just keep
pounding places they think Putin might be.
Speaker 4 (19:20):
This is the history of Russian warfare. Dumber things that
have happened and have lost Russia wars. So yeah, yeah,
a lot dumber than that. So yeah, I don't think
that Ukraine will be screwed if the US pulls out.
I do think it will be a lot harder for them. Yeah,
And you know, if that's something, there are a lot
of US sits still fighting in Ukraine. Would be pretty
devastating to abandon Ukraine. And I think also just from
(19:43):
the sort of stopping Russian aggression standpoint, it's much better
stop it here than somewhere else. But yeah, we will see.
Speaker 2 (19:51):
I guess European countries are really ramping up their defense,
but they right now the US is like the heart
of the military industrial complex, and and Europe really can't
keep up with the US production. Of course, the US
being the heart of the military industrial complex does mean
that a lot of Trump donors will probably be able
to leave ridge of their donations to his campaign, and
so we might not see as much of a drawdown
(20:13):
of Bay to Ukraine as we're worrying about here. May
talking of launching things from a long distance at a
very small target, I would like to launch these advertisements
from iheartman the advertising department directly to your ears.
Speaker 3 (20:27):
Heger. It's all so bad.
Speaker 4 (20:41):
As we were recording this, it's come out that the
new Secretary of Defense is going to be Pete Hegseth,
who's like a Fox News guy who doesn't believe germs
are real.
Speaker 2 (20:50):
Yeah, this guy who has not washed his hands in
ten years. Great, I mean, at least he might die
of COVID. Yeah, I was going to say he made it. Wow.
Speaker 3 (21:00):
Sorry that that that hair is really something. Oh that's
not good at all. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (21:06):
Wait what when June fourteenth, twenty fifteen, hag Seith accidentally
hit a Westward juror.
Speaker 3 (21:13):
With an act over a live cube Like, dad, I
think it was incredible.
Speaker 2 (21:22):
Let's have that length pulled up. All right, this video
is unavailable. All right, No, we're finding this video that
nothing disappears from the internet.
Speaker 3 (21:33):
All right, here we go.
Speaker 5 (21:37):
No mis fucking dog my god, this is just clown shit, Like.
Speaker 3 (21:53):
I need to write.
Speaker 2 (21:54):
Listen, if you were hit in the dick and balls
by an axe thrown by Future Defense Secretary, please contact
cool Zone Media Atiheartmedia dot com. I hope the VA
is paying for this man's benefits.
Speaker 4 (22:16):
It's the stupidest thing I've ever seen someone do, like
in the course of reporting for this show.
Speaker 2 (22:22):
Yeah, yeah, it's amazing, like very funny. Again, please contact us.
I hope you're okay. Service related injury. Yeah, so that's
that's peak. Hegseth right. Future sec Deef, also former reservist
who deployed to Guantanamo, was an induantry platoon leader at Guantanamo.
(22:43):
I think he also deployed to Afghanistan in twenty twelve,
and previously he'd also deployed to Iraq. He'd a voluntary
two voluntary deployments or was in two locations in IRAQII.
So he's hit the greatest hits of US foreign policy
in the last twenty years. I guess he's made his
career as a Fox News pandit.
Speaker 3 (23:00):
Yeah, he's just like a right wing ghoul. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (23:03):
I mean in the last Trump administration when he was punditing,
he advised Trump had been considering pardoning several war criminals
and did pardon several war criminals, right, and Hexceth was
one of the people who A he talked about on
Fox News, Well he was advising Trump to do it,
and b he was advising Trump to do its. Christ Yeah,
you can read up about the Trump pardons of war criminals.
Speaker 4 (23:24):
It's bad enough that a guy was getting turned in
by his own Special Forces unit. Like do you know
how bad, how like fucking hideous? The shit you have
to do is for like for like your own guys
in a special Forces unit to be like, holy shit,
we have to stop this guy. Yeah, Like it's awful.
Speaker 2 (23:43):
Yeah, I mean if you should look up Clinton Rance's
stuff as well, Like, yeah, LOI NC if you're interested
in this stuff. He was convicted I think of two
murder accounts for ordering his soldiers to fire and unarmed people.
And then yeah, the other one was a Green Beret
named Matt Altsin who was also charged in the murder
of someone in Afghanistan, someone who had been making I DS.
(24:06):
So like, I think we can see where this guy
is going. We've just found this out as well as
we're recording for context. Like that's quite troubling.
Speaker 5 (24:14):
Yea.
Speaker 2 (24:15):
His other two foreign policy appointments that I've seen so
far have been less so.
Speaker 3 (24:21):
Look, i'd say less so.
Speaker 2 (24:22):
Marco Rubio is a turd, right, Like, like, I think
we all know that we I share very little with
Marco Rubio.
Speaker 3 (24:27):
On Turkey and Rajaba. He is good.
Speaker 2 (24:30):
He is not a fan of Verta one. He's in
contact with googlanists. He kind of puts Turkey in the
in the bricks box is a good yeah, which which
leads us to the very funny idea of Marco Rubio
ordering a drone strike on airc Adams.
Speaker 4 (24:48):
I mean, well, here's the thing though Good's dead now,
so so like there's like a secession crisis of like
who's gonna.
Speaker 3 (24:57):
The goodinist anti Pope Marky Rubio.
Speaker 2 (25:00):
Yeah, that could be very good for Rajava at least
right the big concern among those of us who carry
deeply about Rajava has been that Trump will abandon them
as he did in the past.
Speaker 3 (25:12):
Right, And so I guess we're looking for glimmers of hope.
Speaker 2 (25:15):
And I think Ruby a kind of oddly weirdly was
one compared to I was expecting more of the hegthf
like Fox News commentator type people in foreign policy positions
because Trump fundamentally doesn't care about foreign policy, and like
it's an area where he can kind of give something
to those kind of like insane far right commentator types.
(25:38):
He also did appoint Mark Waltz, I think could be Wols.
He's one of the first special Army special Forces guys
serving Congress, maybe the first as a national security advisor.
Walls as a member of the Kurdish Caucus in Congress. So again,
positive for a Java. Talking of Army special forces, there's
one more insane Trump foreign policy proposal that I want
(26:00):
to discuss and that is his desire to use the
United States Army in Mexico. I'm just going to read
from his campaign website here. President Trump will take down
the drug cartels just as he took down ISIS. He
will impose a total naval embargo on cartels, order the
Department of Defense to inflict maximum damage on cartel leadership
(26:22):
and operations, and designate cartels as foreign terrorist organizations and
choke off the access to the global financial system. President
Trump will get the full cooperation of neighboring governments to
dismantle the cartels or else expose every bribe and kickback
that allows these criminal networks to preserve their brutal rain.
He will ask Congress to ensure that drug smugglers and
traffickers can receive the death penalty.
Speaker 3 (26:45):
There's a lot there.
Speaker 2 (26:46):
The way that Donald Trump helped defeat ISIS was exclusively
by bombing things and with some small contributions from US
ground troops. But we don't really have a partner force
in Mexico like that, and I think, especially with the
new administration in Mexico, and especially with Trump proposing one
hundred percent tariffs on Mexican goods, we're unlikely to find one,
(27:09):
which leaves the very strange kind of prospect of US
troops carrying out like unapproved, undeconflicted hits on Mexican nationals
in Mexico.
Speaker 3 (27:21):
Which like its an act of war.
Speaker 2 (27:23):
Yeah, you are invading Mexico, is what you're doing, I
actould point out. And the Bortac under Biden did shoot
one Mexican national this year who was he was holding
up migrants with the gun.
Speaker 3 (27:34):
He was, he's rubbing with a gun.
Speaker 2 (27:36):
It wasn't into place where I've been dozens of times
where they shot him and they didn't seem to be
much fuffle about that. But that is not invading Mexico.
Speaker 4 (27:44):
Yeah, Like if they're invading Mexico, like you know, as
as close as American Mexican sort of security cooperation has
been and as many people as that's killed from the
Mexican side, like.
Speaker 3 (27:54):
That's oh boy.
Speaker 2 (27:56):
Yeah, Like it remains to be seen how much of
this actually happened. Right, Mexico has a new president, the
United States has a new president. They're not exactly politically
fellow travelers, I'll say.
Speaker 4 (28:06):
That, but yeah, I mean I will say like Armlow
and Trump got along like decently well, yeah, largely off
of Omblos like anti immigrant policies, but I don't know
if that's going to work with China.
Speaker 2 (28:16):
Bomb like and like in the final year of Armlow
like they definitely they did a lot to help Biden
within effectively enforcing US border policy by deporting people's South.
People I spoke to in the Darien series have been
sent south again this week. But Biden's had actually some
pretty high profile cartel arrests right within Cineloa cartel. He's
(28:37):
destabilized that cartel, but those happened within the US. They
didn't send teams into into Mexico. And the way that
the US has traditionally got hold of cartel leaders before
is him to be arrested in Mexico in cooperation with
Mexican government forces, be they police or military, and then
extraducted them to the US trial. And that doesn't seem
to be what Trump is proposing. But again, like the
(28:59):
Bomber rhetoric and the reality are sometimes very different.
Speaker 4 (29:03):
Yeah, I have some vague memory that he, like last time,
he wanted to like send special forces guys to do this,
and his advisors were like, what the fuck are you
talking about? We can't send yeah, like people in New Mexico.
Speaker 2 (29:15):
Yeah, look, just to be real, those organizations have reached
inside the United States, and that would be an extremely
messy situation. Yeah, and like the way this would have
to be done, right, Like, I don't think you can
do this with drone strikes. That you have to do
this with boots on the ground. And that's going to
be contrary to what he's promised to do, which is
not risk more US soldiers' lives. Who knows what this
(29:38):
will actually look like.
Speaker 4 (29:39):
Yeah, my guess is you will find a way to
get the maxim umber civilians killed.
Speaker 3 (29:43):
Yes, yeah, yeah, we de would himself. Yeah, it's that's
probably would be the result of this, Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 2 (29:49):
And I think as you sort of wear this down,
like civilian deaths are probably going to increase. Right, He's
never shown himself to be unduly concerned about those things.
He doesn't see that in the problem. The second thing
the US will lose is what Joseph Nay called soft power, right,
which is like the power to influence people without projecting force,
cultural power, cultural capitals.
Speaker 3 (30:10):
Body you might have called.
Speaker 2 (30:11):
It really getting heavy on the university shit at the
back half of this episode.
Speaker 3 (30:16):
The US lost a lot.
Speaker 2 (30:18):
Of that in the first Trump term, right, and it
will lose more of it in the second Trump term.
Some of that is, you know, the US maybe shouldn't
be influencing, and the US has had some pretty malign
influence around the world.
Speaker 3 (30:29):
You can listen to a song called Washington Bullets to
learn more about it.
Speaker 2 (30:33):
But it will mean that, like there will be a
space for other bad actors, right, Russia, China. You know,
Russia has not shown itself to be any more concerned
with human rights, and probably less so than than the
United States went in it. And it's time in Syria, right,
it's been an unmitigated disaster for the Syrian people. The
Russian cooperation with your side regime. We do not need
(30:54):
more of that around the world. The WAGNSLA to Africa,
Core diplomas in Africa have been horrific in terms of
human rights, and this will open more spaces for that.
So yeah, I mean, it doesn't look great this secretive appointment.
Maybe we'll learn more about that in the coming days,
but that doesn't look great. There are some bright spots
(31:16):
for a Java. I guess there's some glimmers of hope there,
which is a nice thing. Trump's policy on Gaza fits
with this general model of like he wants to end conflicts,
and the way he sees of doing that is doing
away with any restraint in terms of civilian casualties. And
so the way that he went after isis was to
just say bomb them all. I can see him doing
(31:39):
the same thing in Gaza, right, just saying like he
wants to claim that he bought an end to the
war and he doesn't care how many bodies he's standing
on when he says that. Yeah, same thing in Lebanon, obviously. So, yeah,
these are not great things. These are things that we
will have to deal with for decades to come, whatever happens.
And I guess the way that you can do something
(32:00):
here like why a little glimmer of hope. It's like
you can reach out to people all around the world
and let them know that like even if America's foreign
policy is shit, you're not. I have sat in Rojaba
and i have seen them taking the children to the hospitals,
and I've watched the US soldiers sit in their bases
and do nothing, and like it didn't help. Really I didn't.
(32:20):
I wasn't able to do very much. I couldn't even
give blood, but I was able to be there with them,
and maybe they're meant something, and like you can do
little things to show your solidarity around the world because
there won't be much of it coming from the government.
Speaker 1 (32:36):
It could Happen Here is a production of cool Zone Media.
For more podcasts from cool Zone Media, visit our website
fool zonemedia dot com, or check us out on the
iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts.
You can now find sources for it could Happen Here
listened directly in episode descriptions. Thanks for listening.
Also media.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
All right, welcome to it could happen here. And what
it is today is me James and Mia Wong. Hi mere, hello, Hi.
What we're here to talk to you about today is
something else, which, despite my positive tone of voice, is
sad and depressing.
Speaker 3 (00:21):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
Yeah, it's just a lot of that, and like we
don't want you to be too sad. It doesn't bear
moping around, you know, like we've got time to get
organized and that's what we should be doing.
Speaker 3 (00:32):
And also like just get.
Speaker 2 (00:34):
Out and go outside and see your friends and do
things that bring you joy. Like we'll work out how
to get through it. So you know, like, yeah, I
think it's really easy. And I found myself doing this
stay at home and be sad, but don't Like I
went out with some friends for a hike on Friday,
and I feel so much better. So I would advise
you to do that. Maybe you're listening on your hike.
That would be fun. Actually, I think if I was hiking,
(00:54):
I would I would skip this one and listen to
the birds.
Speaker 3 (00:57):
And you know, well, I mean.
Speaker 4 (01:01):
You know, if you want the ideological framing event, the
ideological framing of it is that morale is a terade
a struggle, yes, and it is very easy to lose
if in morale is absolutely terrible.
Speaker 3 (01:14):
So yeah, we got four years.
Speaker 2 (01:16):
We can't be being moping around like we will get
through it.
Speaker 3 (01:20):
We will find ways to make it better.
Speaker 2 (01:22):
And part of the way we do that yet is
keeping amoral up and doing things that bring us joy.
Thing that brings me joy is talking about roch Java,
the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, and we're
going to talk about that today. So we're talking about
Donald Trump's foreign policy in his second term. So his
previous foreign policy was a pretty mixed bag, and he
(01:44):
bombed the shift out of the Islamic State, right cool
based he also bombed the shit out of thousands of
Syrian and Iraqi civilians.
Speaker 3 (01:51):
Not so cool.
Speaker 2 (01:53):
Also, we should note, not so different from every other
president this century. Bombing civilians has been pretty much the
the through line of American foreign policy in that part
of the world for a very long time. In particular
in the Trump administration I'm want to talk about, there
was a single US strike cell called Talent Anvil. I
think they were mainly like CAG guys from what I read,
(02:15):
so Delta Force guys Army Special Forces guys who were
making these decisions. They hired office building in Syria, and
these guys were constantly looking at drone feeds and various
other information and then calling in strikes on various targets. Right,
I'm not sure if they had the CAG guys in
the watching computers. I'm not entirely sure, and like, well
(02:36):
they didn't have someone else who knows, But this strike,
Celle dropped more than one hundred and twenty thousand bombs
and Jesus Christ, yeah, yeah, the amount of ordinance we
dropped on Syria is insane. Its circumvented procedures are in
place to prevent Philian death. In order to do so,
they had embedded lawyers who were supposed to approve the strikes.
(02:58):
But these lawyers tried to raise the alarm that some
of these strikes were reckless. They weren't hitting things that
were actual targets, and they sort of ran into an
organizational brick wall. At some point, pilots even refused to
engage targets because they didn't think of Jesus, Yeah, which
is it's not usual.
Speaker 4 (03:16):
Yeah, like that'd be pretty fucked for a fighter pilot
to be like, no, I don't think I've ever heard
of that before.
Speaker 2 (03:24):
No, So I found this out in uh well, I
think it was the New York Times. New York Times,
a pretty good investigation which we linked in our sources.
And yeah, it's like a throwaway line, but I would
love to hear more about that. It could have been
a drone pilot too, which is slightly different. Gig, I
guess you know, if you're sitting north of Las Vegas,
they're flying a drone kind of kind of a different scene.
(03:47):
So in the battle to defeat the Islamic State, thousands
of innutescent people lost their lives as we reached the
end of that battle. Donald Trump, who's president at a time,
personally called urda one who's the president of circuit right.
In late twenty eighteen, Trump asked the third one, if
we withdraw our soldiers, can you.
Speaker 3 (04:04):
Clean up isis? That's a quote?
Speaker 2 (04:06):
According to an unnamed Turkish official interviewed by Reuters, at
one replied that Turkish forces were capable of a mission. Quote,
then you do it, Trump told him and us as
National Security Advisor John Bolton, who was also on the
call to quote start work for withdrawal of US troops
from Syria. What this resulted in was US troops pulling
(04:27):
out from some locations in Syria, right, local people throw
tomatoes at them. Even worse than the tomatoes were the
fact that it gave NATO's second largest army, which is Turkey,
of course, free reign to attack the Autonomous Administration North
in Essyria, which it did in twenty eighteen it did
again at twenty nineteen. Those two operations to claim considerable
(04:49):
ground in Syria cost countless civilian lives. Continue to perpetrate
human rights abuses to rehabilitate people from ISIS and other
Jahadi groups as Turkish Free Syrian Army, and they kill
some people who were people I care about, and I
continue to care about the cause of Rajava or Autonomous
(05:09):
Administration in North New Syria very deeply, and and it
really fucking sucks to think about the potential of the
US abandoning those people again, not that Biden has done
very much. Yeah, now, I think this anecdote, right of
what Trump does with one tells us a lot about
his approach to foreign policy, which is he really sees
it as very transactional, which is no different from everything
(05:31):
else he does. I guess like he's a very transactional person,
and he seems really only to be concerned about what
he can get out of it. So like in this case,
I guess he wants to say he bought US troops
home from Syria, like he's anti war. This is one
of his things, he says now, right, but he's prepared
to also in the case of the bombing, Right, he's
(05:53):
not so concerned with civilian casualties as long as he
can claim that he was the one who defeated ISIS. Right,
abomber couldn't do it. He did it, and he did
it on a pile of civilian remains, and also using
chiefly the Syrian Democratic.
Speaker 3 (06:06):
Forces, right, not US forces. There were US forces on
the ground.
Speaker 2 (06:10):
They were engaged in combat, but in minuscule numbers compared
to SDF, who lost fifteen thousand of their children in
a battle against ISIS. I think Trump would be very
willing to admit that he's transactional, right, That's kind of
his brand, is like America first and fuck everyone else.
So I think he'll probably be similar in this term. Right,
(06:32):
he will act unilaterally, He'll pivot whenever the fuck, he
feels like it. He will continue with his affection for
strong men and dictators all around the world. But a
lot of stuff has changed since Trump's first term, and
I think it's illustrative for us to think about how
he will engage with things that have changed.
Speaker 3 (06:48):
So what has changed.
Speaker 2 (06:50):
There's a much larger conflict between Russia and Ukraine now,
and that conflict has been seen massive and overt support
both from the USA and for the rest of NATO.
There's been a revolution in Mema. I suppose he doesn't
know that.
Speaker 4 (07:04):
Yeah, I really doubt maybe some of the like weird
pro coup meaning from the right guard to him, Yeah, perhaps.
Speaker 2 (07:12):
Or like, I mean, the parallels between the CO and
Memma and January sixth are pretty obvious, right, Okay, Like
give January sixth to the landing. It lived a lot
like that, except that it was a military party not
just a political party. The Islamic State doesn't exist as
a territory identity, but it very much does exist as
a terrorist group, which continues to and has actually increased
(07:33):
its activity this month, with sleeper cells, continued suicide bombings,
continued attacks, and the SDF continue with their anti Issis
operations without US support, those would be harder. And so
we have to ask, I guess on what Trump's going
to do with these things? And I want to look
at a few different issues and pick apart what Trump
(07:57):
said on his campaign website, pick apart what he said
on the campaign trail, and then look at who he's
appointed so far. We're recording this on Tuesday the twelfth,
So if someone gets appointed before you hear this, that's
why we've missed them out. So I guess to start
with Trump's foreign policy, we should talk about his number
one like peer competitor, which is China in his eyes, right,
(08:18):
not a big China appreciator. So I looked at his
campaign website for this, which really has some just incredible
use of capital letters.
Speaker 3 (08:26):
He just fucking does what he wants. It's wild to see.
Speaker 2 (08:29):
So chiefly, one of the things that he's been on
about for a while now is tariffs on Chinese make goods. Right,
as means the foreign policy, Yeah, we just we talked
about this last episode. Yeah, you will have heard about
tariffs at this point. Yeah, So, as we've previously mentioned, right,
he's talked about the tariffs. These tariffsould cost a lot
of money, and they would increase the cost of you
(08:50):
going shopping.
Speaker 4 (08:51):
Yeah, and they would probably destroy vast whilst of the
global economy, yes, both the Chinese and the American economy, Yes, yes,
sort of implode.
Speaker 2 (09:00):
And then all these countries in Africa and you know,
me and La for instance, exports a lot of these
rare earth metals to China, right, and a lot of
countries in Africa do too. Aside from the economic sort
of aggression, it stands on, Taiwan is weird, which is
normally where we would like expect to see the most
like physical friction between US and China. Right. Mike Pompeo
(09:22):
has pressed for the USA to formally recognize Taiwan before,
which would be a step, but you know that there'd
be a pretty big swing. Trump, on the other hand,
seems to want Taiwan to pay the United States for
being into ally right now.
Speaker 4 (09:36):
Yeah, then this is like one of his big sort
of foreign policy principles is like try to get people
to pay him for stuff, because that's sort of the
only way his brain works. But Rember, this was NATO
a lot, whereas this whole line on NATO that like
NATO should be like paying us because people like you're
not spaying enough on defense, so we're like paying all
the defense budgets. This is like one of his kind.
Speaker 3 (09:57):
Of Yeah, it's been his like hobbyhole.
Speaker 4 (10:00):
Yeah, like floats around at his brain sort of colliding
with its walls.
Speaker 3 (10:04):
Yeah, empty space. Yeah. Yeah, like a big bung ball.
Speaker 2 (10:07):
Ironically, like in the time that Trump's been out of
of is Russian aggression has led native members to spend
more on defense, yeah, rather than Donald Trump lambasting them.
So one of his big things is that Taiwan should
pay the United States. But it would seem very unlikely
that he if he's not going to abandon Taiwan, I
think because it gives him a place to grandstand on China.
Speaker 4 (10:29):
Yeah, and also, like you know, I mean, one of
the things about Trump is that one of the best
ways to sort of influence him is just get a
world leader in a room with him alone. Yes, but unfortunately,
well fortunately for us, Trump does not speak Chines easy,
and she doesn't seem to like him very much.
Speaker 2 (10:47):
So yeah, yes, we won't be here. We won't be
joining the PRC anytime soon. China, along with Russia right
to countries we've spoken about. Most of both make big
plays in Africa. Russia has re branded what was Wagner
it's Africa Core, and they're sort of providing support to
regimes that lack en afflegitimacy to exist otherwise. Yeah, they
(11:10):
are like classic mercenary shit, like it's your state illegitimate
and does it lack the capacity to do the violence
it needs to maintain itself. Don't worry hereris herism psychopaths
from Russia.
Speaker 4 (11:22):
Yeah, And there's just a lot of people, I think
because like a lot of these sort of governments will
kind of like do their like like put a red
beret on and start doing their anti imperialist cosplay. And
then you like read the like the fine print of
the contracts they've signed with like Africa Core, a thing
that like you expect to be spelled like Africa and
(11:43):
Core with a K like ko rps like and it's like, oh, okay,
so like they've signed away a bunch of the country's
mineral rights, Like they've signed away a bunch of these
specific minds to these mercenary groups. It's like, oh okay,
so this is like also this is also just imperial
it's just new management.
Speaker 2 (12:01):
Yeah, exactly, Yeah, it's just different imperialism. And then China
has big plays in Africa too, right, Like I've personally
seen a lot of Chinese own minds in Africa, Chinese
roads in Africa. China does also like offer infrastructure. Chinese
has a kind of quid pro quo. It doesn't come
in like with the violence like Russia does. It comes
in with that will build your hospital if we can
have all your natural resources. US policy in Africa is
(12:25):
pretty much to stop those two countries getting too much influence.
The Biden administration is as many liberals are right, there's
actually not that much difference between what Biden and Trump
will do in Africa. The difference is Biden is smart
enough not to say it. Trump's ability to do anything
useful in Africa is going to be masked by his
massive racism, Like when he says things like shithole countries.
(12:47):
It becomes a lot harder for the US to do
anything in Africa that isn't tinged by that, right, Like,
it doesn't make that sort of imperialist ambition more obvious.
US politicians rarely talk about they were any campaign or
what they were going to do in Africa. And so
pretty much the only things we're going to hear from
Donald Trump, but Africa, I would imagine, are going to
(13:09):
be when he lets his racism out. Yeah, that will
have results for like US credibility. Also, my guess is
we see intensifications of sort of US drone strikes, particularly
in the Horn, and we see like like all of
the stuff that Biden is doing, but worse and killing
even more people somehow. Yeah, I would imagine that we
will see these more aggressive throne strikes, especially against like
(13:30):
Islamist groups in Africa. The US has special Forces deployments
in a few places in Africa, which will probably maintain
I would imagine, like, I don't think those are like
things that Trump would He wouldn't see any benefit from
stopping them, I guess, and it.
Speaker 3 (13:44):
May not even know about them.
Speaker 2 (13:46):
So yeah, I think we will see little change in Africa,
would be my guess.
Speaker 4 (13:51):
Yeah, my oldly worse.
Speaker 2 (13:53):
Yeah, yeah, I talk of mildly worse.
Speaker 4 (13:56):
Mire.
Speaker 2 (13:57):
The thing that makes these podcasts mildly worse is our
obligation to pivot to advertisements, which we must do now.
Speaker 3 (14:03):
That was a great one, holding out on you for
three years. You have a good ad pivots.
Speaker 2 (14:09):
Yeah, well, there it is. That's what we've got for you.
All Right, we're back. So I want to talk about Europe.
As you've heard in the Tariff's episode, right, he wants
to put tariffs on European goods. European Union is going
(14:30):
to slap tariffs right back on American goods. That doesn't
really help anyone. It will make exporting from the USA
very very hard. One thing that the USA might stop
exporting is is weapons to Ukraine. It's a little unclear.
Trump he called Olenski the greatest salesman on earth, but
it was also claimed that he can personally end the
war in twenty four hours. I don't think that means
(14:52):
that he will be deploying himself to the down Bass
like a like a like a gun dam. But he
claims he can do this with his negotiating skills. This
seems unlikely. To put it mildly, I don't think that
it would be possible to end this war in twenty
four hours if both sides declared peace right now, getting
communications to their frontline troops would be a challenge in
(15:13):
twenty four hours in some places. Yeah, So the way
I interpret this and I may be wrong here is
that he is likely to leverage the support that the
United States gives to Ukraine in order to force Zelensky
into an unfavorable settlement, which would achieve his goal of
a being able to say he stopped giving American money
(15:35):
to Ukraine, which has been a big talking point for
the like every time you start with the western North
Carolina right up to the hurricane or these Republicans sort
of talking points were like, oh, well, all the money
is in Ukraine, so we can't have fucking MREs for
people in western North Carolina, Like FEMA has no money
because we sent Ukraine some memphors. This is very silly, right,
(15:57):
It's not a zero sum game. It's not really a
reasonable critique, but it's one that Trump has kind of
managed to stick in the culture was his base seems
to see the money going to Ukraine is directly coming
from things that would otherwise be going to them, which
he would benefit from it if he could bring this
war to a close, right j d Vance has mentioned
(16:17):
a demilitarized zone in between Russia.
Speaker 3 (16:21):
And Ukraine, which.
Speaker 2 (16:23):
Yeah, he's gonna minister the DMZ, Like yeah, like did
we really want this? Are we going to have troops
out like we do in South Korea for you know
when when was a career around the nineteen fifty seventy years, right,
And I don't think that's really really what they want.
Speaker 3 (16:39):
The think what DMC is. No one actually likes them. No,
this sucks, It sucks. Yeah, they're awful.
Speaker 2 (16:44):
It's just a bit of land that you can yeat
weapons over each other, like especially in like modern warfare,
that they're not that effective at stopping to be bull fighting. Right,
But very funny that North's career will be two for
two on DMZs in wars it has been involved with
huge up for them. He essentially seems to be advocating
(17:05):
for exactly the peace settlement that Putin has proposed and
that has been rejected multiple times. Several sources I've seen
suggest that Trump has spoken to Putin quite a few
times since leaving office. This His plan for Ukraine certainly
seems closer to the Russian one than the Ukrainian one,
the Ukrainian one being stop invading us and go home,
(17:27):
and the Russian one being, well, we'll just keep all
the stuff we've taken so far and then add a
buffer zone in between. And Ukraine can keep whatever's left
of its country.
Speaker 1 (17:35):
Right.
Speaker 2 (17:36):
What's interesting to me is what other NATO members will
do in the event of the US reducing its AID.
I would suspect that they will try and step up
and meet that gap. It might also result in the
US put certain restrictions on its AID, right, how it
can be used, where it can be used crucially, Right,
they don't like Ukraine using things to attack in Russia proper.
(18:00):
They don't mind am using them to attack Russian forces,
but not within Russia. I did see a picture yesterday
of a I think it was three guys from Rogue
I think it's called, which is a unit within the
International Legion who had been killed within Russia. And they
had a lot of like eighty fours and things like that, right,
like US or anti tank weapons.
Speaker 3 (18:20):
But the United States.
Speaker 2 (18:21):
Doesn't want Ukraine using the long range artillery and stuff
it's given it to yeat projectiles at Moscow. I can
see a situation where if the US draws down some
bit AID, European allies of Ukraine might not play some
of those restrictions on their AID, and that could lead
to some interesting complications for Russia. Right If Ukraine is
(18:44):
more effective, Like if they get more aid from Europe
and Europe doesn't place restrictions on the aid, they could
potentially strike Russia within Russia, which is not going to
be good for Putin and it's probably not going to
be good for like bringing I mean, unless they can
deal some really crippling blows, it might not be good
for bringing the war to an end.
Speaker 3 (19:00):
But maybe it will.
Speaker 2 (19:00):
Maybe they've they've done some pretty effective things with not
a huge amount so far.
Speaker 4 (19:04):
I don't know, maybe get lucky on a strike on
the Kremlin or something.
Speaker 2 (19:08):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, just the one like I mean, yeah,
I'm sure that would be their strategy if they wouldn't
have they didn't have restrictions, would be to just keep
pounding places they think Putin might be.
Speaker 4 (19:20):
This is the history of Russian warfare. Dumber things that
have happened and have lost Russia wars. So yeah, yeah,
a lot dumber than that. So yeah, I don't think
that Ukraine will be screwed if the US pulls out.
I do think it will be a lot harder for them. Yeah,
And you know, if that's something, there are a lot
of US sits still fighting in Ukraine. Would be pretty
devastating to abandon Ukraine. And I think also just from
(19:43):
the sort of stopping Russian aggression standpoint, it's much better
stop it here than somewhere else. But yeah, we will see.
Speaker 2 (19:51):
I guess European countries are really ramping up their defense,
but they right now the US is like the heart
of the military industrial complex, and and Europe really can't
keep up with the US production. Of course, the US
being the heart of the military industrial complex does mean
that a lot of Trump donors will probably be able
to leave ridge of their donations to his campaign, and
so we might not see as much of a drawdown
(20:13):
of Bay to Ukraine as we're worrying about here. May
talking of launching things from a long distance at a
very small target, I would like to launch these advertisements
from iheartman the advertising department directly to your ears.
Speaker 3 (20:27):
Heger. It's all so bad.
Speaker 4 (20:41):
As we were recording this, it's come out that the
new Secretary of Defense is going to be Pete Hegseth,
who's like a Fox News guy who doesn't believe germs
are real.
Speaker 2 (20:50):
Yeah, this guy who has not washed his hands in
ten years. Great, I mean, at least he might die
of COVID. Yeah, I was going to say he made it. Wow.
Speaker 3 (21:00):
Sorry that that that hair is really something. Oh that's
not good at all. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (21:06):
Wait what when June fourteenth, twenty fifteen, hag Seith accidentally
hit a Westward juror.
Speaker 3 (21:13):
With an act over a live cube Like, dad, I
think it was incredible.
Speaker 2 (21:22):
Let's have that length pulled up. All right, this video
is unavailable. All right, No, we're finding this video that
nothing disappears from the internet.
Speaker 3 (21:33):
All right, here we go.
Speaker 5 (21:37):
No mis fucking dog my god, this is just clown shit, Like.
Speaker 3 (21:53):
I need to write.
Speaker 2 (21:54):
Listen, if you were hit in the dick and balls
by an axe thrown by Future Defense Secretary, please contact
cool Zone Media Atiheartmedia dot com. I hope the VA
is paying for this man's benefits.
Speaker 4 (22:16):
It's the stupidest thing I've ever seen someone do, like
in the course of reporting for this show.
Speaker 2 (22:22):
Yeah, yeah, it's amazing, like very funny. Again, please contact us.
I hope you're okay. Service related injury. Yeah, so that's
that's peak. Hegseth right. Future sec Deef, also former reservist
who deployed to Guantanamo, was an induantry platoon leader at Guantanamo.
(22:43):
I think he also deployed to Afghanistan in twenty twelve,
and previously he'd also deployed to Iraq. He'd a voluntary
two voluntary deployments or was in two locations in IRAQII.
So he's hit the greatest hits of US foreign policy
in the last twenty years. I guess he's made his
career as a Fox News pandit.
Speaker 3 (23:00):
Yeah, he's just like a right wing ghoul. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (23:03):
I mean in the last Trump administration when he was punditing,
he advised Trump had been considering pardoning several war criminals
and did pardon several war criminals, right, and Hexceth was
one of the people who A he talked about on
Fox News, Well he was advising Trump to do it,
and b he was advising Trump to do its. Christ Yeah,
you can read up about the Trump pardons of war criminals.
Speaker 4 (23:24):
It's bad enough that a guy was getting turned in
by his own Special Forces unit. Like do you know
how bad, how like fucking hideous? The shit you have
to do is for like for like your own guys
in a special Forces unit to be like, holy shit,
we have to stop this guy. Yeah, Like it's awful.
Speaker 2 (23:43):
Yeah, I mean if you should look up Clinton Rance's
stuff as well, Like, yeah, LOI NC if you're interested
in this stuff. He was convicted I think of two
murder accounts for ordering his soldiers to fire and unarmed people.
And then yeah, the other one was a Green Beret
named Matt Altsin who was also charged in the murder
of someone in Afghanistan, someone who had been making I DS.
(24:06):
So like, I think we can see where this guy
is going. We've just found this out as well as
we're recording for context. Like that's quite troubling.
Speaker 5 (24:14):
Yea.
Speaker 2 (24:15):
His other two foreign policy appointments that I've seen so
far have been less so.
Speaker 3 (24:21):
Look, i'd say less so.
Speaker 2 (24:22):
Marco Rubio is a turd, right, Like, like, I think
we all know that we I share very little with
Marco Rubio.
Speaker 3 (24:27):
On Turkey and Rajaba. He is good.
Speaker 2 (24:30):
He is not a fan of Verta one. He's in
contact with googlanists. He kind of puts Turkey in the
in the bricks box is a good yeah, which which
leads us to the very funny idea of Marco Rubio
ordering a drone strike on airc Adams.
Speaker 4 (24:48):
I mean, well, here's the thing though Good's dead now,
so so like there's like a secession crisis of like
who's gonna.
Speaker 3 (24:57):
The goodinist anti Pope Marky Rubio.
Speaker 2 (25:00):
Yeah, that could be very good for Rajava at least
right the big concern among those of us who carry
deeply about Rajava has been that Trump will abandon them
as he did in the past.
Speaker 3 (25:12):
Right, And so I guess we're looking for glimmers of hope.
Speaker 2 (25:15):
And I think Ruby a kind of oddly weirdly was
one compared to I was expecting more of the hegthf
like Fox News commentator type people in foreign policy positions
because Trump fundamentally doesn't care about foreign policy, and like
it's an area where he can kind of give something
to those kind of like insane far right commentator types.
(25:38):
He also did appoint Mark Waltz, I think could be Wols.
He's one of the first special Army special Forces guys
serving Congress, maybe the first as a national security advisor.
Walls as a member of the Kurdish Caucus in Congress. So again,
positive for a Java. Talking of Army special forces, there's
one more insane Trump foreign policy proposal that I want
(26:00):
to discuss and that is his desire to use the
United States Army in Mexico. I'm just going to read
from his campaign website here. President Trump will take down
the drug cartels just as he took down ISIS. He
will impose a total naval embargo on cartels, order the
Department of Defense to inflict maximum damage on cartel leadership
(26:22):
and operations, and designate cartels as foreign terrorist organizations and
choke off the access to the global financial system. President
Trump will get the full cooperation of neighboring governments to
dismantle the cartels or else expose every bribe and kickback
that allows these criminal networks to preserve their brutal rain.
He will ask Congress to ensure that drug smugglers and
traffickers can receive the death penalty.
Speaker 3 (26:45):
There's a lot there.
Speaker 2 (26:46):
The way that Donald Trump helped defeat ISIS was exclusively
by bombing things and with some small contributions from US
ground troops. But we don't really have a partner force
in Mexico like that, and I think, especially with the
new administration in Mexico, and especially with Trump proposing one
hundred percent tariffs on Mexican goods, we're unlikely to find one,
(27:09):
which leaves the very strange kind of prospect of US
troops carrying out like unapproved, undeconflicted hits on Mexican nationals
in Mexico.
Speaker 3 (27:21):
Which like its an act of war.
Speaker 2 (27:23):
Yeah, you are invading Mexico, is what you're doing, I
actould point out. And the Bortac under Biden did shoot
one Mexican national this year who was he was holding
up migrants with the gun.
Speaker 3 (27:34):
He was, he's rubbing with a gun.
Speaker 2 (27:36):
It wasn't into place where I've been dozens of times
where they shot him and they didn't seem to be
much fuffle about that. But that is not invading Mexico.
Speaker 4 (27:44):
Yeah, Like if they're invading Mexico, like you know, as
as close as American Mexican sort of security cooperation has
been and as many people as that's killed from the
Mexican side, like.
Speaker 3 (27:54):
That's oh boy.
Speaker 2 (27:56):
Yeah, Like it remains to be seen how much of
this actually happened. Right, Mexico has a new president, the
United States has a new president. They're not exactly politically
fellow travelers, I'll say.
Speaker 4 (28:06):
That, but yeah, I mean I will say like Armlow
and Trump got along like decently well, yeah, largely off
of Omblos like anti immigrant policies, but I don't know
if that's going to work with China.
Speaker 2 (28:16):
Bomb like and like in the final year of Armlow
like they definitely they did a lot to help Biden
within effectively enforcing US border policy by deporting people's South.
People I spoke to in the Darien series have been
sent south again this week. But Biden's had actually some
pretty high profile cartel arrests right within Cineloa cartel. He's
(28:37):
destabilized that cartel, but those happened within the US. They
didn't send teams into into Mexico. And the way that
the US has traditionally got hold of cartel leaders before
is him to be arrested in Mexico in cooperation with
Mexican government forces, be they police or military, and then
extraducted them to the US trial. And that doesn't seem
to be what Trump is proposing. But again, like the
(28:59):
Bomber rhetoric and the reality are sometimes very different.
Speaker 4 (29:03):
Yeah, I have some vague memory that he, like last time,
he wanted to like send special forces guys to do this,
and his advisors were like, what the fuck are you
talking about? We can't send yeah, like people in New Mexico.
Speaker 2 (29:15):
Yeah, look, just to be real, those organizations have reached
inside the United States, and that would be an extremely
messy situation. Yeah, and like the way this would have
to be done, right, Like, I don't think you can
do this with drone strikes. That you have to do
this with boots on the ground. And that's going to
be contrary to what he's promised to do, which is
not risk more US soldiers' lives. Who knows what this
(29:38):
will actually look like.
Speaker 4 (29:39):
Yeah, my guess is you will find a way to
get the maxim umber civilians killed.
Speaker 3 (29:43):
Yes, yeah, yeah, we de would himself. Yeah, it's that's
probably would be the result of this, Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 2 (29:49):
And I think as you sort of wear this down,
like civilian deaths are probably going to increase. Right, He's
never shown himself to be unduly concerned about those things.
He doesn't see that in the problem. The second thing
the US will lose is what Joseph Nay called soft power, right,
which is like the power to influence people without projecting force,
cultural power, cultural capitals.
Speaker 3 (30:10):
Body you might have called.
Speaker 2 (30:11):
It really getting heavy on the university shit at the
back half of this episode.
Speaker 3 (30:16):
The US lost a lot.
Speaker 2 (30:18):
Of that in the first Trump term, right, and it
will lose more of it in the second Trump term.
Some of that is, you know, the US maybe shouldn't
be influencing, and the US has had some pretty malign
influence around the world.
Speaker 3 (30:29):
You can listen to a song called Washington Bullets to
learn more about it.
Speaker 2 (30:33):
But it will mean that, like there will be a
space for other bad actors, right, Russia, China. You know,
Russia has not shown itself to be any more concerned
with human rights, and probably less so than than the
United States went in it. And it's time in Syria, right,
it's been an unmitigated disaster for the Syrian people. The
Russian cooperation with your side regime. We do not need
(30:54):
more of that around the world. The WAGNSLA to Africa,
Core diplomas in Africa have been horrific in terms of
human rights, and this will open more spaces for that.
So yeah, I mean, it doesn't look great this secretive appointment.
Maybe we'll learn more about that in the coming days,
but that doesn't look great. There are some bright spots
(31:16):
for a Java. I guess there's some glimmers of hope there,
which is a nice thing. Trump's policy on Gaza fits
with this general model of like he wants to end conflicts,
and the way he sees of doing that is doing
away with any restraint in terms of civilian casualties. And
so the way that he went after isis was to
just say bomb them all. I can see him doing
(31:39):
the same thing in Gaza, right, just saying like he
wants to claim that he bought an end to the
war and he doesn't care how many bodies he's standing
on when he says that. Yeah, same thing in Lebanon, obviously. So, yeah,
these are not great things. These are things that we
will have to deal with for decades to come, whatever happens.
And I guess the way that you can do something
(32:00):
here like why a little glimmer of hope. It's like
you can reach out to people all around the world
and let them know that like even if America's foreign
policy is shit, you're not. I have sat in Rojaba
and i have seen them taking the children to the hospitals,
and I've watched the US soldiers sit in their bases
and do nothing, and like it didn't help. Really I didn't.
(32:20):
I wasn't able to do very much. I couldn't even
give blood, but I was able to be there with them,
and maybe they're meant something, and like you can do
little things to show your solidarity around the world because
there won't be much of it coming from the government.
Speaker 1 (32:36):
It could Happen Here is a production of cool Zone Media.
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You can now find sources for it could Happen Here
listened directly in episode descriptions. Thanks for listening.
It Could Happen Here News
Hosts And Creators
Robert Evans
Garrison Davis
James Stout
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