July 18, 2024 • 34 mins
Many restaurant companies could cut guidance this year as low-income consumers and industry sales remain challenged, Guggenheim Partners Director and Lead Restaurant Analyst Greg Francfort, tells Bloomberg Intelligence. In this episode of the Choppin’ It Up podcast, Francfort sits down with BI’s senior restaurant and foodservice analyst Michael Halen to discuss aggressive US coffe- shop development, quick-service discounting and strong demand for chicken brands. He also shared which companies he thinks have a moat on pricing and traffic including Chipotle, Domino’s Pizza, Texas Roadhouse and Wingstop.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:23):
Welcome to Chopping It Up.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
I'm your host, Mike Halon, the senior restaurant food Service
analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. Our research and that of bi's
five hundred analysts around the globe can be found exclusively
on the Bloomberg terminal. Today, we're joined by Greg Frankfurt,
Director and lead restaurant analyst at Gougenheim Partners.
Speaker 1 (00:40):
Thanks for joining me, Greg.
Speaker 3 (00:42):
Of course I love this. I think I was your
first first guest mic on this, so we had to
go back for round two.
Speaker 1 (00:49):
Yes, you are our first guest. That was a little
over two years ago. Now you're our first repeat guest.
Speaker 3 (00:55):
Oh this is great.
Speaker 1 (00:56):
Yeah, it's great to have you back.
Speaker 3 (00:57):
Do I get Do I get a T shirt? Or
do I get a award or something like that?
Speaker 2 (01:03):
Yeah, I could see to put something. I can see
to put something together. I definitely can get you some
Bloomberg swag, that's for sure.
Speaker 1 (01:10):
Sweet. All right, so I.
Speaker 2 (01:13):
Guess let's start at the top. You having fun picking
stocks right now?
Speaker 1 (01:17):
No, No, not at all.
Speaker 3 (01:20):
It's a very difficult environment, I think, both from a
restaurant industry environment but also from a stock picking environment
the industry. If I just kind of step back and
look at twenty twenty four. You know, we came into
sort of first quarter earning season with sales under some challenges,
(01:45):
and I think a lot of companies approached earnings and
this was back in April with a hope that the
year would get better and that that was kind of transitory.
I don't think things have gotten a lot worse, but
I would definitely say they haven't gotten better, and and
that puts a lot of a lot of the guidances
for this year under some probably negative earnings revisions rather
(02:07):
than positive earnings revisions. That's the backdrop for the space.
I think even in the last three or four weeks
maybe have been under even a little bit more sales pressure.
And so I think there's a lot of investors out
there really worried that the low income consumers tapping out
a bit, and restaurants where maybe historically have been viewed
(02:29):
as very defensive, I think likely are. But I think
that that kind of assumption is is getting a second
look from a stock perspective. I don't know if I've
seen a point at which companies that are beating there
seems to be no valuation ceiling, and if you have
positive traffic, you look at Wingstop, you look at Cavo,
(02:52):
you look some of those names. If you are missing
or if you're under some pressure. I mean, I'm starting
to get deep down you folks looking at some quick
service uh, restaurant, restaurant, franchise ors that that hasn't happened
in the twelve years I cover the space, so that
that just that just goes to show you where.
Speaker 1 (03:12):
We are.
Speaker 3 (03:14):
And uh and and for a lot of those names,
are you hitting a level where you don't even necessarily
need a catalyst because the valuations are low up? I
mean that that seems to be the outstanding question right now.
Speaker 2 (03:25):
Yeah, some of these stocks have gotten beaten down over
the last month or so. You know, somebody must know
something that I don't. But yeah, it's a it's a
tough environment, man. You know, comps are getting easier, but
low income consumer seems to be to your point, tapping
out a bit here.
Speaker 3 (03:42):
I just looked I think revolving credits up. I think
it was around eighty five billion year over year, which
on the grand scheme of things, that's not a big number.
I mean, you're you're talking about twenty trillion dollars of
annual UH consumer expenditures one hundred billion dollars here, one
hundred billion dollars. There's are big numbers, but not big
in the scheme of things. But that number is up
(04:04):
I think seven percent year over year. And the loan
consumer has been leaning on credit in a way they
had it for a while, and that's concerning because you
can't do that for effort. Yeah, it just doesn't work.
That doesn't work.
Speaker 2 (04:20):
Yeah, interesting, you know, we look, we look at a
few data points. We look at total credit card total
credit card debt, and it was up thirteen percent in
the first quarter. Wow, not not a great number, but
creative change actually improved the fourth quarter and the third
quarter were up seventeen eighteen percent, so that's kind of improved.
(04:41):
Where we see some stresses on delinquencies, those are actually
credit card and auto loan delinquents are actually actually accelerated
in the first quarter. So yeah, that's something we watch
pretty closely. All right, cool, let's talk coffee. Man, you're
neutral on Starbucks and Dutch Bros. What do we need
to know about those those two stories right now?
Speaker 3 (05:04):
I think coffee and look, we just updated our numbers
recently on On Bros. I think coffee has been one
of the most fascinating categories for the rest of industry,
and the reason for that is because it is probably
the area, alongside chicken, with the fastest demand growth. Consumers
(05:25):
are rotating towards that they're increasing their caffeine consumption every year,
and so that provides a lot of tailwind to store development.
It provides a lot of opportunity for new chains and
new brands to emerge without necessarily having to have a
big impact on the existing chains. I think the challenges
we see it is there may just be a bit
(05:47):
too much supply coming on. And I mean, you look,
you think about the category. Starbucks just posted a negative
comp in the US for the first time. I don't
even know if we have it recorded get it before
the UH and then Dutch Bros. Even last year the
(06:07):
sales had slowed quite a bit to the point where
they were kind of bouncing around barely positive to a
big acceleration their sales in the first quarter. So it's
it's it's it's very dynamic. We're looking at Starbucks now
has about sixteen thousand locations in the US and is
adding about four percent a year or is trying to
get their unit growth about four percent a year. That
would be six hundred locations, six hundred fifty locations year.
(06:30):
That's a lot of stores to go in on a
brand that's doing about thirty billion in sales. And then
and then Dutch Bros. Isn't really the only one that's
kind of this upstart category that is that is growing
really quickly. You have seven Brew and Scooters and Big
b and Caribou and Eliano's, and there's there's probably ten
or fifteen chains that represent about four thousand locations adding
(06:53):
eight hundred a year, adding twenty percent growth. So there's
a lot of capacity coming on in the category. I
think we're gonna see that start to shake out a
little bit this year. We've we've gone through a bunch
of industry data points to suggest that that some of
those chains are starting to slow. I think that will
be healthy, and we're gonna be watching it very closely.
But I think that's been our biggest issue for the categories.
(07:17):
Demand's great. Demand growth is great. Supply growth might be
even greater.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
Yeah, yeah, no, And you've been right, So that's good stuff.
You know, Historically they've always had such good, nice premium
multiples because of that strong unit economics, right, the strong
the low investment of sales ratios, the strong margins. But yeah,
with they've definitely been under pressure now for some time.
Speaker 3 (07:42):
It's great. It's great selling something that's mostly water. Great,
it's a great margin business.
Speaker 1 (07:48):
Fantastic, and it's addictive, right and need.
Speaker 3 (07:51):
Too and sugar you get to two different components to it.
Speaker 2 (07:55):
Yeah, and these companies aren't afraid to get kids hooked
on the caffeine and sugar early either. So yeah, did
the estimates reflect the jump in green coffee prices that
we've seen over the last ten months.
Speaker 3 (08:07):
You've seen that I think, I mean Starbucks has historically
hedged out about eighteen months, and so I mean sometimes
that's bled down to kind of twelve fifteen months. But
we're likely going to see that on you know, probably
six nine months from now, maybe start to flow through
the P and L.
Speaker 1 (08:26):
So yeah, that.
Speaker 3 (08:26):
That's that's gonna cause some pressure. It's interesting for Starbucks specifically.
I think I think some of the challenges they've gotten
into is they they initially gave a long term guidance
range under under Howard Schultz when it was about two
to three months post peak CPI, and I think that's
(08:47):
was a very difficult time to give a guidance range.
And they gave seven to nine percent comps, which they've
done at points in various points in history, but not
when they've had sixteen thousand locations. And I think that
put the incoming CEO in a bit of a tough
position where he was trying to chase and earnings an
earnings algorithm that was going to have to be more
(09:09):
margin driven if he was to get there, and he's
pivoted that way. He's taken the camp guidance down, he's
taken the margin guidance up, and I think they've had
some other idiosyncratic factors that have driven comps even lower
than maybe he would have expected as a possibility.
Speaker 2 (09:25):
Yeah, that that stock's been under a ton of pressure,
How do you feel about their initiatives that they they've
they've they put in place on that last earnings call.
Speaker 3 (09:37):
It's interesting. I think the stock just at seventy six
bucks a share, and it's it's as of when we're
recording this, it's below that it does have an over
three percent dividing yields, So I think it's going to
attract some investors who are focused on the yield, which
which has not been someone who's r Star Wicks has
been more of a growth story, less of a value
dividend story in a long time. But yeah, I think
(10:00):
I think, look, the initiatives are doing kind of makes sense.
I mean, like like, particularly from a product standpoint. I mean,
I've tried most of them. I've tried the spicy lemonades.
We had the whole sales desk trying the spicy lemonades.
I had the bubble tea one of the few clients,
and we went and tried the energy drinks. I think
they're all decent products. I'm not sure they are are
(10:24):
visible enough to the consumer with how much they're putting
out there. From a product perspective, it almost I think
might get lost in the shuffle and the noise. One
of my concerns is that trying to address the customer's
not using your mobile phone with digital apps and and
trying to push text messages to them may not be
(10:46):
the right strategy to re engage some of those customers.
I think I think maybe a little bit more aggressive
invisible marketing in terms of what they're actually putting out there.
From a product perspective, is is what I would suggests
as the right way to get more visibility.
Speaker 1 (11:01):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (11:01):
I think that's a great point. What do you feel about, Uh,
how do you feel about the discounting?
Speaker 3 (11:05):
The discounting is a industry wide phenomenon right now and
so and I think part of it is if you
did not have the discounting, you would have had very
strong margins in twenty twenty four. And this industry is
too big and too competitive and too fragmented for everyone
(11:26):
to have structurally higher margins. And so I think what's
happening is you're seeing these companies, One the consumers under
a little bit of pressure, and two the margin the
cost inflation to come down, and they're kind of chasing
that back down. I went in, I had three of
the energy drinks, and I think I've paid twenty three
bucks for it. Wow, that's expensive. Ook Starbucks has always
(11:47):
been expensive, But that's that's that's a lot. If you're
a while, it's under some pressure.
Speaker 2 (11:52):
Yeah, yeah, for sure. And they're seeing that in China too.
China's a concern. But I'd like to like to move
keep this movement does the social media. The attention around
Chipotle's portion sizes concern you.
Speaker 4 (12:04):
Oh man, yeah, my my, my ability to follow the
hottest thing on TikTok and and the complaints of the
of of each of each consumer on TikTok has been
very difficult.
Speaker 3 (12:17):
I I'm not that concerned about it. I thought it
was interesting. I saw the report You probably saw it too,
that the Wells Fargo I think it was Zach Fadam
put out at Wells Fargo a couple of weeks ago
on the variability of portion sizing. I thought it was interesting,
not surprising. I mean, I'm a pretty regular Chipotle customer.
(12:40):
I think the challenges with a lot of these stocks
is that they're great businesses with great traffic growth. It's
just a matter of what you want to pay for them.
And that's what we've struggled with for a while, and
I think we we've tended to try to lean into
businesses with some level of growth, high returns, but maybe
(13:03):
a little bit of a more reasonable valuation. I think
Texas Roadhouse would fit fit in well into that uh
into that that bucket?
Speaker 2 (13:10):
All right, that's one of your favorite names. Uh, why
don't you talk to us a little bit about that one.
Speaker 3 (13:16):
Yeah, it's look, I hadn't covered it for a long time.
We just picked it up early last year, and I
mean I've kind of followed it from a from an
arms length for a while, and I don't think I realized.
I think if you're not paying attention that close to
the industry, it's hard to realize how good of a
competitive position they're in. I mean, I think that the
(13:38):
restaurants that are performing best right now are ones where
they have a mode on pricing and traffic. Do you
think about Domino's and Pizza and how much how much
cheaper they are than than than Pizza and Papa John's.
Do you think about Chipotle in a fast casual space?
You think about Texas Roadhouse, think about even wing stopping.
(14:00):
I mean some people have tried to figure out what
wingstop strengths are. Go to Indianapolis, go to Wichita, and
go to the four or five local wing joints. They're
fifteen percent more expensive than wingstop. I think that has
a lot to do with it. And Texas road has
just recently in the last couple of years, passed out
back as the number one stake player by sales in
(14:21):
the US, and I think if you go, it's actually
very easy. Steaks are very standardized, so you have like
your eight ounce fil A, you have your Surlo and
there they're by weight and everything comes with two sides,
so it's like it's very easy to stack them up
against each other. And Roadhouse is double digits cheaper than
their biggest competitors, and yet they're doing seventy eighty percent
(14:44):
more traffic per chair. It's not even like the restaurants
are the restaurant's a little bit bigger, but not substantially bigger.
They are just winning on a low price point where
they are getting customers through more quickly than their competition.
And that is a fantastic competitive position to be in.
And so I think, and the other thing that's missed
is that's it's not just stakes. Their drinks are forty
(15:06):
fifty percent cheaper than a lot of their competitors. Their
average check is twenty percent lower. I mean, it is
in a fantastic competitive position. They're still growing five percent
unit growth in the US, and it's one that's I mean,
the stocks expand it's up a lot the last six nine,
twelve months, but you know, when you look at the
realm of who's growing traffic and who's growing double digit
(15:27):
revenue growth, kind of a load of mid twenty times
pe multiple is not crazy for this stock.
Speaker 2 (15:32):
Yeah, and they're they're operators, man, I love I love
restaurant chains that are operator lad.
Speaker 3 (15:39):
Oh yeah, I mean it's it's I feel like Jerry
jumps on the call and you want to run through
a wall for the brand. You know. I come away
feeling like I'm I'm working Texas Roads and I'm excited.
It's like he's very, very and uh. I think in
the in the shift from Kent to Jerry, there was
some concern about maintaining that, but I think he's proven
absolutely be a good leader for this concept.
Speaker 2 (16:02):
And it's so important, you know, it's so important to
have a leader that you know, team members believe in
and gms believe in and want to work for and
bust their butts for. You know, It's it's it's critical.
So yeah, I think it's it's awesome. It's awesome to see.
It's been a fun one to cover.
Speaker 1 (16:19):
For sure.
Speaker 3 (16:20):
Sometimes us on Wall Street, I think we forget how
important it is to have the general manager in place.
That's really strong. I mean I've kind of realized that
over the years, but it's taken me some time.
Speaker 2 (16:31):
Right, and that that general, the fact that their gms
have skin in the game is great.
Speaker 1 (16:35):
You know, that's that old old school's outback model.
Speaker 2 (16:39):
You know that not everybody can do uh these and
and Longhorn and Texas road House sales tend historically tend
to do pretty well amid stake inflation.
Speaker 3 (16:49):
Right, Yeah, I mean, that's that's that's been We've started
to see evidence of that moving. I think the last
couple of years, pasture conditions have been pretty poor, and
so a lot of farmers have just been sending cattle
to slaughter rather than leaving them in the field, which
is exacerbated it was already a pretty bad supply condition.
(17:14):
You're starting to see that reverse, and you're starting to
see state prices go up quite a bit, and Roadhouse
has underpriced that. I think anyone looking at next three, six,
nine months of earnings may get a little freaked out
if you get a little bit of a bump in inflation.
But this data has proven to be kind of add
to Roadhouse's strength rather than detract from it.
Speaker 1 (17:36):
All, Right, let's stick to full service here. Darden is
one of the names you like.
Speaker 2 (17:40):
What were the key takeaways for you from last month's
earning squall?
Speaker 3 (17:45):
Yeah, I think the they're the bell weather for the industry.
They're the first ones to have to really guide the
next four quarters, the next twelve months. Sales have been
under some pressure. There's no doubt about that. They may
bet during COVID to basically take six seventy eight percent
less pricing over the next several years in their peers,
(18:08):
and the way they funded that, or at least how
I see it as the way they funded that by
lowering their advertising, so they're advertising is kind of one
percent of sales. It was three percent of sales. That's
a big change. And I think the other thing they've
done is they've reduced the discounting. And I think when
people look at the opportunities that Darden has to reinvigorate traffic,
(18:29):
they go, well, you got to advertise more and discount more.
And the company's very hesitant to to discount. But I
think if they were to add thirty forty to fifty
BIFs of advertising back into the business, not necessarily a
discount of price points just to get the visibility back up.
I think investors would be very receptive to that as
(18:51):
a strategy. You know, they've talked a little bit about
pressure on the under seventy five thousand income households and
we're worried about that. We're worried about that across the industry.
But I think Darden should be in a position where
competitively they are winning over their peers.
Speaker 1 (19:12):
Scale matters, It totally does. Yeah, all right, let's flip
to QSR.
Speaker 2 (19:19):
We haven't spoken about QSR really too much yet, so
seemingly in an effort to remind consumers that they can
provide value, McDonald's offered their five dollars meal two three
weeks ago. Burger King actually beat them to the punch
with their five dollars combo. Is this as low as
these QSR chains are going to go? Are we going
(19:40):
to see deeper discounting in the next six to twelve months.
Speaker 3 (19:43):
I don't know. If you're going to see deeper discounting,
you might see lower price points. I think McDonald's a
few years ago made this pivot to dollar one, two
three from the dollar menu, and I think that was
just a realization that sticking at one price point was
hard to do. I think finding a solution to replace that,
is it with visibility and equity in the platform, is
(20:06):
going to be the number one focus. I don't think
the four for five dollars meal is that solution. I
think this is them trying to remind people that they
have good value. I see. It's pretty interesting. I've been
seeing in the in the mobile app recently dollar sodas
in a way that I had not seen in a
long time, and I know that was a change. I
(20:27):
think in the twenty two they got off of that
in a lot of markets, and I think that was
a big part of the price increases that they've seen
the last few years. And so that to me is
you're going to see some of that pop up in
different areas. But I think a solution to replace D one,
two three, at some point, which we expect will come
later this year, maybe more meaningful to actually driving lower
(20:50):
price points in the industry.
Speaker 2 (20:51):
Yeah, they definitely catch some shade for not offering anything
that's actually a buck.
Speaker 1 (20:55):
You know.
Speaker 2 (20:55):
It's like maybe if you're in like the Middle America,
maybe you can get something for one, you know.
Speaker 3 (21:01):
But it's like the dollar stores offering things for five
bucks you know how many dollars?
Speaker 1 (21:06):
Yeah, yeah, exactly exactly.
Speaker 2 (21:10):
But you know they've proven they can win in this environment, right,
So even though one q fell short of expectations, do
you feel the bolk case is still in talc here.
Speaker 3 (21:18):
I think I wouldn't bet against McDonald's. I think that's
proven to be a very bad bet Historically. They just
have such scale advantages, and I think they're they're going
right after others in QSR who I think have owned
this this this four and five dollars bundle in a
way that McDonald's is not historically, and they're throwing a
(21:39):
lot of advertising that I mean, if they had to,
if sales do not find traction, they'll get they'll get
Taylor Swift, or they'll get they'll they'll get Michael Jordan
and they'll pay him a whole bunch of money to
do a new meal. I mean that they are not
going to just sit back there and and kind of
take what's going on in the industry. I think the
(22:00):
concern I have for Quick Service is I think you
probably you've been around long enough to remember this as well, Mike,
but the move to one hundred percent franchise business models
over twenty twelve, thirteen, fourteen, fifteen sixteen. I think they
haven't been stressed stressed in a way that the volatility
inflation has stressed that relationship the last two years. And
(22:24):
that's probably my biggest long term concern for McDonald's and
Wendy's and RBI and but I think that I mean
McDonald's the partnership they haven't owning the real estate is
a huge structural competitive advantage. It allows them to make
investments that others can't make. And I think that they'll
(22:46):
they'll figure it out, but they're clearly hitting a lull
right now in the business.
Speaker 2 (22:50):
Yeah, they've they've been a marketing machine under easter Brook
and now Kemchinsky. They've done a phenomenal job. I don't
watch much TV. Have they done any celebrity endorsements around
the five dollars meal done?
Speaker 3 (23:04):
I have not that I've seen. I was hoping for
a Mike Hale and Mike Halen meal and it just
was like, you know, a whole bunch of mcflurries and
you know it would be great, But I haven't seen anything.
But again, I've seen different discount and yeah, I think
what they did was they used to have a I
think it was a twenty percent off promotion in the
app for for orders over. I believe it was five bucks.
(23:26):
They've raised that to effectively make you kind of buy
the five dollars offer at full price. So that's been
where I guess they've pulled back as an offset. But
but they're I think they're gonna be pretty aggressive here
going forward. And I it's just the stores look good.
(23:47):
They've been all been remodeled the last five or six years.
I think the strategy is good. I think the new
products are good, and I just wouldn't bet against them.
Speaker 1 (23:56):
Yeah, I agree.
Speaker 2 (23:58):
And for the record, the centerpiece of the Mike Hanlon
meal would be the quarter pounder with cheese and big
mac sauce.
Speaker 3 (24:05):
I just had a quarter pounder for lunch, so I'm
right there with you.
Speaker 2 (24:11):
Nice, Nice, And my guilty pleasure is a flay of
fish with an extra extra piece of really yeah yeah,
but you got to get the extra piece of cheese,
or you get it with like extra.
Speaker 1 (24:24):
Extra tartar, so you know it comes out fresh.
Speaker 3 (24:27):
I'll let you know tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (24:30):
All right, what are your thoughts on young brands you know,
they had a really rough first quarter. Yeah, you know,
and historically they've known to be you know, top of
the food chain when it comes to marketing.
Speaker 1 (24:43):
You know, can they write the ship there.
Speaker 3 (24:46):
Yeah. I mean, they've been fantastic marketers historically. I think
it's probably their biggest strength as a as an overall organization.
What i'd say McDonald's maybe scale. I think the challenge
for young is, I mean they've historically had a pizza
Hut US brand which isn't massively meaningful to the profitability.
It's probably seven or eight percent of overall profits that's
(25:07):
been pressured by Dominoes. And now they have the KFC
US business, which I think is starting to come under
pressure from raising Canes and Chick fil A and pop
Eyes and some of these businesses that are starting to
actually get even get to an even bigger size where
they're having a bigger impact on KFC. I think if
(25:28):
both of those businesses are struggling, it starts to cause
a problem. But I mean, so much of the strength
for this concept is also in the global pace of
unit growth, and I think one of the challenges for
the US franchise market is there's been I think excessive
leverage on the franchise e side of things. For the
past i'd call it six or seven years, a lot
(25:50):
of low covenant loans being made by the banking system
that has allowed kind of permanently high debt structures. Internationally,
I think a lot of the franchisees that Youum is
growing alongside really don't have leverage issues. They have much
better balance sheets, and so if you can continue to
post maybe it's not five and a half six percent
(26:13):
unit growth, but five to five and a half percent
unit growth globally, this is a stock that's trading probably
too cheap for that. And we made a point in
our note recently on Yum. I remember when Hilton marrying
some of these hotels traded at two three four turned
discounts to McDonald's and Yum because there was more confidence
in the growth of McDonald's andy Youum. Globally, that has
(26:36):
completely flipped. They are now trading it around twenty times earn,
twenty times PE and a lot of those hotel brands
franchise ors are trading the mid twenties. And when I've
heard talk to investors, I've heard more confidence on the
ability to expand those networks overseas. I wouldn't count Yum
(26:58):
out on their pace of global development. They've they've had
a very strong engine on networks with a lot of
these master franchises in different markets around.
Speaker 2 (27:08):
The globe, a long track record of success. So absolutely, Yeah,
I wouldn't been against them internationally either. Yeah, you touched
on a little bit Chicken, you expect it to remain hot.
Speaker 3 (27:20):
Given my personal consumption, it's it shifted a lot to
a lot more aggressively towards Chicken. I think I think
we would expect that to be pretty, to be a
strong growth category, continue to be a strong growth category.
And I remember I put a note out I think
it was in twenty twenty seventeens. This is seven years stale,
(27:41):
but just looking at the impact of Chick fil A
and Subway on the on the US restaurant industry and
how they were kind of offsetting dynamics and offsetting pressure,
Like you were getting a benefit from the fact that
somebody was donating share and you were getting a drag
from the fact that Chick fil A was was taking share.
But they were relatively offset I think with how much
(28:02):
pressure Canes and Chick fil A are applying to the
to the overall sector. That may partially explain what's going
on from a quick service backdrop. And and and I
think some of that's just the shift to chicken. I
think some of that's the business models, and and that
the corporate entity is aligned with the operators of the
(28:22):
stores in a way that some of the public usrs.
It's it's not as much or not as apparent.
Speaker 2 (28:29):
Yeah, Chick fil A is such a monster man. And
I still haven't been to a raising canes.
Speaker 1 (28:33):
I have to. I have to get on that.
Speaker 3 (28:36):
Your options, I think are chicken fingers, chicken fingers or
chicken fingers when you go, so I can tell you
what you're going to order.
Speaker 2 (28:44):
And sauces too, Right, sauces have have been a hot,
uh like kind of hot this year. Right first was
KFC had saucy nugs, and then Wendy's followed suit.
Speaker 1 (28:54):
Right, sauces are are back in a big way.
Speaker 3 (28:57):
It seems like we we we bought that I think
it was four of the different flavors of Wendy's Saucy
Nugs and brought them out to the trading floor and
someone and they were a little bit undersauce, but someone said, Wow,
I sort of forgot how good Wendy's nuggets are. And
so some of it, I think is it's very easy
(29:17):
operationally to take an existing product that you already think
is good if you're the brand, and do a little
bit to it. You don't have to add a lot
of skews. It's it's kind of a simple product line extension.
And a lot of those guys are pulling the lever.
Speaker 1 (29:29):
And you remind me, do cover Wendy's.
Speaker 3 (29:31):
I do cover Wendy's.
Speaker 2 (29:32):
What your thoughts on Wendy's right now? Because I mean
they for the longest time they ever had that like
QSR plus positioning, and you know that's now there's like
QSR plus plus with.
Speaker 1 (29:44):
Via like Chick fil A, right, And so.
Speaker 2 (29:48):
I don't know have they lost some of that, like
cachet of being a better player. And at the same time,
we've also seen everybody else kind of up their game, right,
McDonald's put a lot of effort and improving their burgers
and their chicken.
Speaker 1 (29:59):
So where does Wendy the stand right now?
Speaker 3 (30:02):
The stock's been under tremendous pressure, and I think some
of that has been They've made some aggressive promises over
the years. I mean, I think Reef Kitchen and the
impact of that to accelerate unit growth really hurt their
credibility on a lot of their long term guidances.
Speaker 1 (30:20):
International did not work out well either for them.
Speaker 3 (30:23):
It's been okay, and I think the positive I would
say in the international business is the flow through when
they open up stores. The flow through is higher than
when Yamer McDonald open up lower AUV boxes in China
with low royalty rates. So I think from that perspective
it's been all right. But when you guide aggressively and
(30:45):
you kind of disappoint it a few times, people start
just kind of ignoring the guidance, and they don't have
a long term framework out there right now. I think
they're gonna likely do something on that front as we
get later here later this year. And I mean the
stock is, the stock is tremendously cheap, particularly if they
(31:08):
can just plod along with a couple points the unit
growth and a few points of comps. It's it's a
very strong brand and I think has a lot of
franchisey demand, just which is shows up in the fact
that they get six and a half seven turns of
EBITDA and a lot of their franchise sales multiples, which
I think shows you that there is demand from franchise
(31:30):
and there's demand for the returns.
Speaker 1 (31:32):
Yeah. I was always a big fan of Wendy's.
Speaker 2 (31:34):
I don't know if they had like a really really
top notch franchisee in New Jersey, which may be part
of the case, but growing up, it was like the
best QSR experience was so good.
Speaker 3 (31:45):
The taco salad because we're giving, we're spilling our our
our number one items here, the taco salad with just
a frosty on the side, chocolate frosty. I I can't.
Speaker 1 (31:56):
You can't beat it. Oh so good man.
Speaker 2 (31:58):
Yeah, I always was a fan of Wendy's and I'm
interested to see because that first quarter wasn't that bad, no,
you know what I mean. And I thought there was
kind of an overreaction there, you know.
Speaker 1 (32:09):
I think, guess the new CEO has.
Speaker 2 (32:11):
To has to, you know, gain the faith of the
investor base after a tough initial earnings call.
Speaker 3 (32:18):
But I think investors are concerned that they're in the
crossairs from from McDonald's with this five dollars platform. I
think that's weighing on the stock as well, if if
if we get through this and Wendy's didn't take a
big sales hit, I think that will relieve a lot
of pressure.
Speaker 1 (32:34):
Makes a lot of sense, all right, gun to the head.
Speaker 2 (32:36):
What kind of comps can quick service and casual dining
put up in the second half, like on average?
Speaker 1 (32:42):
You know what I mean?
Speaker 3 (32:42):
Like? What?
Speaker 1 (32:43):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (32:44):
I think we should be able to see point point
or two of acceleration. I I I I think one
of the challenges that's that's that we've experienced is as
you've moved from high inflation to kind of benign inflation,
it just makes it very difficult to push through pricing.
(33:05):
But if you start to see cogs inflation pick up
a little bit as you go through the year, I
think you're gonna see a little bit more confidence from
some of these companies in terms of their ability to
to not have to take pricing to zero. And so
I from that perspective, I'm somewhat optimistic that maybe resurging
(33:26):
cogs inflation could help. But I don't think you're gonna
see a big step up the consumer. The loancome consumer
is just a bit tapped out, So I wouldn't expect
two three four points of acceleration. It just that's just
not happening.
Speaker 1 (33:39):
Yeah, for sure, it's gonna be uh, it's gonna be interesting.
Speaker 2 (33:42):
And we have the Olympics and the election, and you know,
higher costs for advertising, so you know, it's always something.
Speaker 1 (33:50):
I'm sure.
Speaker 2 (33:51):
I'm sure the companies we cover can't wait to get
to December and those really easy comps from last year.
Speaker 3 (33:56):
We we should own whatever stock sells the cell the
food that's going to be delivered to us and our
bunkers around the around the election. That's who who was
delivered to the bunker. Maybe maybe it's a uber into DoorDash.
Speaker 1 (34:08):
I don't know. I have to check out the valuations
on those form my p A.
Speaker 2 (34:14):
Yeah, Greg, you're the best man.
Speaker 1 (34:17):
Thanks for doing this, Oky, thanks for your time. I
appreciate Mike, and a big thanks to the audience for
tuning in. If you liked the episode, please share it
with your colleagues and friends.
Speaker 2 (34:26):
Check back soon for a conversation with Andrew Smith, the
managing partner and co founder of Savory Fund.
Welcome to Chopping It Up.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
I'm your host, Mike Halon, the senior restaurant food Service
analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. Our research and that of bi's
five hundred analysts around the globe can be found exclusively
on the Bloomberg terminal. Today, we're joined by Greg Frankfurt,
Director and lead restaurant analyst at Gougenheim Partners.
Speaker 1 (00:40):
Thanks for joining me, Greg.
Speaker 3 (00:42):
Of course I love this. I think I was your
first first guest mic on this, so we had to
go back for round two.
Speaker 1 (00:49):
Yes, you are our first guest. That was a little
over two years ago. Now you're our first repeat guest.
Speaker 3 (00:55):
Oh this is great.
Speaker 1 (00:56):
Yeah, it's great to have you back.
Speaker 3 (00:57):
Do I get Do I get a T shirt? Or
do I get a award or something like that?
Speaker 2 (01:03):
Yeah, I could see to put something. I can see
to put something together. I definitely can get you some
Bloomberg swag, that's for sure.
Speaker 1 (01:10):
Sweet. All right, so I.
Speaker 2 (01:13):
Guess let's start at the top. You having fun picking
stocks right now?
Speaker 1 (01:17):
No, No, not at all.
Speaker 3 (01:20):
It's a very difficult environment, I think, both from a
restaurant industry environment but also from a stock picking environment
the industry. If I just kind of step back and
look at twenty twenty four. You know, we came into
sort of first quarter earning season with sales under some challenges,
(01:45):
and I think a lot of companies approached earnings and
this was back in April with a hope that the
year would get better and that that was kind of transitory.
I don't think things have gotten a lot worse, but
I would definitely say they haven't gotten better, and and
that puts a lot of a lot of the guidances
for this year under some probably negative earnings revisions rather
(02:07):
than positive earnings revisions. That's the backdrop for the space.
I think even in the last three or four weeks
maybe have been under even a little bit more sales pressure.
And so I think there's a lot of investors out
there really worried that the low income consumers tapping out
a bit, and restaurants where maybe historically have been viewed
(02:29):
as very defensive, I think likely are. But I think
that that kind of assumption is is getting a second
look from a stock perspective. I don't know if I've
seen a point at which companies that are beating there
seems to be no valuation ceiling, and if you have
positive traffic, you look at Wingstop, you look at Cavo,
(02:52):
you look some of those names. If you are missing
or if you're under some pressure. I mean, I'm starting
to get deep down you folks looking at some quick
service uh, restaurant, restaurant, franchise ors that that hasn't happened
in the twelve years I cover the space, so that
that just that just goes to show you where.
Speaker 1 (03:12):
We are.
Speaker 3 (03:14):
And uh and and for a lot of those names,
are you hitting a level where you don't even necessarily
need a catalyst because the valuations are low up? I
mean that that seems to be the outstanding question right now.
Speaker 2 (03:25):
Yeah, some of these stocks have gotten beaten down over
the last month or so. You know, somebody must know
something that I don't. But yeah, it's a it's a
tough environment, man. You know, comps are getting easier, but
low income consumer seems to be to your point, tapping
out a bit here.
Speaker 3 (03:42):
I just looked I think revolving credits up. I think
it was around eighty five billion year over year, which
on the grand scheme of things, that's not a big number.
I mean, you're you're talking about twenty trillion dollars of
annual UH consumer expenditures one hundred billion dollars here, one
hundred billion dollars. There's are big numbers, but not big
in the scheme of things. But that number is up
(04:04):
I think seven percent year over year. And the loan
consumer has been leaning on credit in a way they
had it for a while, and that's concerning because you
can't do that for effort. Yeah, it just doesn't work.
That doesn't work.
Speaker 2 (04:20):
Yeah, interesting, you know, we look, we look at a
few data points. We look at total credit card total
credit card debt, and it was up thirteen percent in
the first quarter. Wow, not not a great number, but
creative change actually improved the fourth quarter and the third
quarter were up seventeen eighteen percent, so that's kind of improved.
(04:41):
Where we see some stresses on delinquencies, those are actually
credit card and auto loan delinquents are actually actually accelerated
in the first quarter. So yeah, that's something we watch
pretty closely. All right, cool, let's talk coffee. Man, you're
neutral on Starbucks and Dutch Bros. What do we need
to know about those those two stories right now?
Speaker 3 (05:04):
I think coffee and look, we just updated our numbers
recently on On Bros. I think coffee has been one
of the most fascinating categories for the rest of industry,
and the reason for that is because it is probably
the area, alongside chicken, with the fastest demand growth. Consumers
(05:25):
are rotating towards that they're increasing their caffeine consumption every year,
and so that provides a lot of tailwind to store development.
It provides a lot of opportunity for new chains and
new brands to emerge without necessarily having to have a
big impact on the existing chains. I think the challenges
we see it is there may just be a bit
(05:47):
too much supply coming on. And I mean, you look,
you think about the category. Starbucks just posted a negative
comp in the US for the first time. I don't
even know if we have it recorded get it before
the UH and then Dutch Bros. Even last year the
(06:07):
sales had slowed quite a bit to the point where
they were kind of bouncing around barely positive to a
big acceleration their sales in the first quarter. So it's
it's it's it's very dynamic. We're looking at Starbucks now
has about sixteen thousand locations in the US and is
adding about four percent a year or is trying to
get their unit growth about four percent a year. That
would be six hundred locations, six hundred fifty locations year.
(06:30):
That's a lot of stores to go in on a
brand that's doing about thirty billion in sales. And then
and then Dutch Bros. Isn't really the only one that's
kind of this upstart category that is that is growing
really quickly. You have seven Brew and Scooters and Big
b and Caribou and Eliano's, and there's there's probably ten
or fifteen chains that represent about four thousand locations adding
(06:53):
eight hundred a year, adding twenty percent growth. So there's
a lot of capacity coming on in the category. I
think we're gonna see that start to shake out a
little bit this year. We've we've gone through a bunch
of industry data points to suggest that that some of
those chains are starting to slow. I think that will
be healthy, and we're gonna be watching it very closely.
But I think that's been our biggest issue for the categories.
(07:17):
Demand's great. Demand growth is great. Supply growth might be
even greater.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
Yeah, yeah, no, And you've been right, So that's good stuff.
You know, Historically they've always had such good, nice premium
multiples because of that strong unit economics, right, the strong
the low investment of sales ratios, the strong margins. But yeah,
with they've definitely been under pressure now for some time.
Speaker 3 (07:42):
It's great. It's great selling something that's mostly water. Great,
it's a great margin business.
Speaker 1 (07:48):
Fantastic, and it's addictive, right and need.
Speaker 3 (07:51):
Too and sugar you get to two different components to it.
Speaker 2 (07:55):
Yeah, and these companies aren't afraid to get kids hooked
on the caffeine and sugar early either. So yeah, did
the estimates reflect the jump in green coffee prices that
we've seen over the last ten months.
Speaker 3 (08:07):
You've seen that I think, I mean Starbucks has historically
hedged out about eighteen months, and so I mean sometimes
that's bled down to kind of twelve fifteen months. But
we're likely going to see that on you know, probably
six nine months from now, maybe start to flow through
the P and L.
Speaker 1 (08:26):
So yeah, that.
Speaker 3 (08:26):
That's that's gonna cause some pressure. It's interesting for Starbucks specifically.
I think I think some of the challenges they've gotten
into is they they initially gave a long term guidance
range under under Howard Schultz when it was about two
to three months post peak CPI, and I think that's
(08:47):
was a very difficult time to give a guidance range.
And they gave seven to nine percent comps, which they've
done at points in various points in history, but not
when they've had sixteen thousand locations. And I think that
put the incoming CEO in a bit of a tough
position where he was trying to chase and earnings an
earnings algorithm that was going to have to be more
(09:09):
margin driven if he was to get there, and he's
pivoted that way. He's taken the camp guidance down, he's
taken the margin guidance up, and I think they've had
some other idiosyncratic factors that have driven comps even lower
than maybe he would have expected as a possibility.
Speaker 2 (09:25):
Yeah, that that stock's been under a ton of pressure,
How do you feel about their initiatives that they they've
they've they put in place on that last earnings call.
Speaker 3 (09:37):
It's interesting. I think the stock just at seventy six
bucks a share, and it's it's as of when we're
recording this, it's below that it does have an over
three percent dividing yields, So I think it's going to
attract some investors who are focused on the yield, which
which has not been someone who's r Star Wicks has
been more of a growth story, less of a value
dividend story in a long time. But yeah, I think
(10:00):
I think, look, the initiatives are doing kind of makes sense.
I mean, like like, particularly from a product standpoint. I mean,
I've tried most of them. I've tried the spicy lemonades.
We had the whole sales desk trying the spicy lemonades.
I had the bubble tea one of the few clients,
and we went and tried the energy drinks. I think
they're all decent products. I'm not sure they are are
(10:24):
visible enough to the consumer with how much they're putting
out there. From a product perspective, it almost I think
might get lost in the shuffle and the noise. One
of my concerns is that trying to address the customer's
not using your mobile phone with digital apps and and
trying to push text messages to them may not be
(10:46):
the right strategy to re engage some of those customers.
I think I think maybe a little bit more aggressive
invisible marketing in terms of what they're actually putting out there.
From a product perspective, is is what I would suggests
as the right way to get more visibility.
Speaker 1 (11:01):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (11:01):
I think that's a great point. What do you feel about, Uh,
how do you feel about the discounting?
Speaker 3 (11:05):
The discounting is a industry wide phenomenon right now and
so and I think part of it is if you
did not have the discounting, you would have had very
strong margins in twenty twenty four. And this industry is
too big and too competitive and too fragmented for everyone
(11:26):
to have structurally higher margins. And so I think what's
happening is you're seeing these companies, One the consumers under
a little bit of pressure, and two the margin the
cost inflation to come down, and they're kind of chasing
that back down. I went in, I had three of
the energy drinks, and I think I've paid twenty three
bucks for it. Wow, that's expensive. Ook Starbucks has always
(11:47):
been expensive, But that's that's that's a lot. If you're
a while, it's under some pressure.
Speaker 2 (11:52):
Yeah, yeah, for sure. And they're seeing that in China too.
China's a concern. But I'd like to like to move
keep this movement does the social media. The attention around
Chipotle's portion sizes concern you.
Speaker 4 (12:04):
Oh man, yeah, my my, my ability to follow the
hottest thing on TikTok and and the complaints of the
of of each of each consumer on TikTok has been
very difficult.
Speaker 3 (12:17):
I I'm not that concerned about it. I thought it
was interesting. I saw the report You probably saw it too,
that the Wells Fargo I think it was Zach Fadam
put out at Wells Fargo a couple of weeks ago
on the variability of portion sizing. I thought it was interesting,
not surprising. I mean, I'm a pretty regular Chipotle customer.
(12:40):
I think the challenges with a lot of these stocks
is that they're great businesses with great traffic growth. It's
just a matter of what you want to pay for them.
And that's what we've struggled with for a while, and
I think we we've tended to try to lean into
businesses with some level of growth, high returns, but maybe
(13:03):
a little bit of a more reasonable valuation. I think
Texas Roadhouse would fit fit in well into that uh
into that that bucket?
Speaker 2 (13:10):
All right, that's one of your favorite names. Uh, why
don't you talk to us a little bit about that one.
Speaker 3 (13:16):
Yeah, it's look, I hadn't covered it for a long time.
We just picked it up early last year, and I
mean I've kind of followed it from a from an
arms length for a while, and I don't think I realized.
I think if you're not paying attention that close to
the industry, it's hard to realize how good of a
competitive position they're in. I mean, I think that the
(13:38):
restaurants that are performing best right now are ones where
they have a mode on pricing and traffic. Do you
think about Domino's and Pizza and how much how much
cheaper they are than than than Pizza and Papa John's.
Do you think about Chipotle in a fast casual space?
You think about Texas Roadhouse, think about even wing stopping.
(14:00):
I mean some people have tried to figure out what
wingstop strengths are. Go to Indianapolis, go to Wichita, and
go to the four or five local wing joints. They're
fifteen percent more expensive than wingstop. I think that has
a lot to do with it. And Texas road has
just recently in the last couple of years, passed out
back as the number one stake player by sales in
(14:21):
the US, and I think if you go, it's actually
very easy. Steaks are very standardized, so you have like
your eight ounce fil A, you have your Surlo and
there they're by weight and everything comes with two sides,
so it's like it's very easy to stack them up
against each other. And Roadhouse is double digits cheaper than
their biggest competitors, and yet they're doing seventy eighty percent
(14:44):
more traffic per chair. It's not even like the restaurants
are the restaurant's a little bit bigger, but not substantially bigger.
They are just winning on a low price point where
they are getting customers through more quickly than their competition.
And that is a fantastic competitive position to be in.
And so I think, and the other thing that's missed
is that's it's not just stakes. Their drinks are forty
(15:06):
fifty percent cheaper than a lot of their competitors. Their
average check is twenty percent lower. I mean, it is
in a fantastic competitive position. They're still growing five percent
unit growth in the US, and it's one that's I mean,
the stocks expand it's up a lot the last six nine,
twelve months, but you know, when you look at the
realm of who's growing traffic and who's growing double digit
(15:27):
revenue growth, kind of a load of mid twenty times
pe multiple is not crazy for this stock.
Speaker 2 (15:32):
Yeah, and they're they're operators, man, I love I love
restaurant chains that are operator lad.
Speaker 3 (15:39):
Oh yeah, I mean it's it's I feel like Jerry
jumps on the call and you want to run through
a wall for the brand. You know. I come away
feeling like I'm I'm working Texas Roads and I'm excited.
It's like he's very, very and uh. I think in
the in the shift from Kent to Jerry, there was
some concern about maintaining that, but I think he's proven
absolutely be a good leader for this concept.
Speaker 2 (16:02):
And it's so important, you know, it's so important to
have a leader that you know, team members believe in
and gms believe in and want to work for and
bust their butts for. You know, It's it's it's critical.
So yeah, I think it's it's awesome. It's awesome to see.
It's been a fun one to cover.
Speaker 1 (16:19):
For sure.
Speaker 3 (16:20):
Sometimes us on Wall Street, I think we forget how
important it is to have the general manager in place.
That's really strong. I mean I've kind of realized that
over the years, but it's taken me some time.
Speaker 2 (16:31):
Right, and that that general, the fact that their gms
have skin in the game is great.
Speaker 1 (16:35):
You know, that's that old old school's outback model.
Speaker 2 (16:39):
You know that not everybody can do uh these and
and Longhorn and Texas road House sales tend historically tend
to do pretty well amid stake inflation.
Speaker 3 (16:49):
Right, Yeah, I mean, that's that's that's been We've started
to see evidence of that moving. I think the last
couple of years, pasture conditions have been pretty poor, and
so a lot of farmers have just been sending cattle
to slaughter rather than leaving them in the field, which
is exacerbated it was already a pretty bad supply condition.
(17:14):
You're starting to see that reverse, and you're starting to
see state prices go up quite a bit, and Roadhouse
has underpriced that. I think anyone looking at next three, six,
nine months of earnings may get a little freaked out
if you get a little bit of a bump in inflation.
But this data has proven to be kind of add
to Roadhouse's strength rather than detract from it.
Speaker 1 (17:36):
All, Right, let's stick to full service here. Darden is
one of the names you like.
Speaker 2 (17:40):
What were the key takeaways for you from last month's
earning squall?
Speaker 3 (17:45):
Yeah, I think the they're the bell weather for the industry.
They're the first ones to have to really guide the
next four quarters, the next twelve months. Sales have been
under some pressure. There's no doubt about that. They may
bet during COVID to basically take six seventy eight percent
less pricing over the next several years in their peers,
(18:08):
and the way they funded that, or at least how
I see it as the way they funded that by
lowering their advertising, so they're advertising is kind of one
percent of sales. It was three percent of sales. That's
a big change. And I think the other thing they've
done is they've reduced the discounting. And I think when
people look at the opportunities that Darden has to reinvigorate traffic,
(18:29):
they go, well, you got to advertise more and discount more.
And the company's very hesitant to to discount. But I
think if they were to add thirty forty to fifty
BIFs of advertising back into the business, not necessarily a
discount of price points just to get the visibility back up.
I think investors would be very receptive to that as
(18:51):
a strategy. You know, they've talked a little bit about
pressure on the under seventy five thousand income households and
we're worried about that. We're worried about that across the industry.
But I think Darden should be in a position where
competitively they are winning over their peers.
Speaker 1 (19:12):
Scale matters, It totally does. Yeah, all right, let's flip
to QSR.
Speaker 2 (19:19):
We haven't spoken about QSR really too much yet, so
seemingly in an effort to remind consumers that they can
provide value, McDonald's offered their five dollars meal two three
weeks ago. Burger King actually beat them to the punch
with their five dollars combo. Is this as low as
these QSR chains are going to go? Are we going
(19:40):
to see deeper discounting in the next six to twelve months.
Speaker 3 (19:43):
I don't know. If you're going to see deeper discounting,
you might see lower price points. I think McDonald's a
few years ago made this pivot to dollar one, two
three from the dollar menu, and I think that was
just a realization that sticking at one price point was
hard to do. I think finding a solution to replace that,
is it with visibility and equity in the platform, is
(20:06):
going to be the number one focus. I don't think
the four for five dollars meal is that solution. I
think this is them trying to remind people that they
have good value. I see. It's pretty interesting. I've been
seeing in the in the mobile app recently dollar sodas
in a way that I had not seen in a
long time, and I know that was a change. I
(20:27):
think in the twenty two they got off of that
in a lot of markets, and I think that was
a big part of the price increases that they've seen
the last few years. And so that to me is
you're going to see some of that pop up in
different areas. But I think a solution to replace D one,
two three, at some point, which we expect will come
later this year, maybe more meaningful to actually driving lower
(20:50):
price points in the industry.
Speaker 2 (20:51):
Yeah, they definitely catch some shade for not offering anything
that's actually a buck.
Speaker 1 (20:55):
You know.
Speaker 2 (20:55):
It's like maybe if you're in like the Middle America,
maybe you can get something for one, you know.
Speaker 3 (21:01):
But it's like the dollar stores offering things for five
bucks you know how many dollars?
Speaker 1 (21:06):
Yeah, yeah, exactly exactly.
Speaker 2 (21:10):
But you know they've proven they can win in this environment, right,
So even though one q fell short of expectations, do
you feel the bolk case is still in talc here.
Speaker 3 (21:18):
I think I wouldn't bet against McDonald's. I think that's
proven to be a very bad bet Historically. They just
have such scale advantages, and I think they're they're going
right after others in QSR who I think have owned
this this this four and five dollars bundle in a
way that McDonald's is not historically, and they're throwing a
(21:39):
lot of advertising that I mean, if they had to,
if sales do not find traction, they'll get they'll get
Taylor Swift, or they'll get they'll they'll get Michael Jordan
and they'll pay him a whole bunch of money to
do a new meal. I mean that they are not
going to just sit back there and and kind of
take what's going on in the industry. I think the
(22:00):
concern I have for Quick Service is I think you
probably you've been around long enough to remember this as well, Mike,
but the move to one hundred percent franchise business models
over twenty twelve, thirteen, fourteen, fifteen sixteen. I think they
haven't been stressed stressed in a way that the volatility
inflation has stressed that relationship the last two years. And
(22:24):
that's probably my biggest long term concern for McDonald's and
Wendy's and RBI and but I think that I mean
McDonald's the partnership they haven't owning the real estate is
a huge structural competitive advantage. It allows them to make
investments that others can't make. And I think that they'll
(22:46):
they'll figure it out, but they're clearly hitting a lull
right now in the business.
Speaker 2 (22:50):
Yeah, they've they've been a marketing machine under easter Brook
and now Kemchinsky. They've done a phenomenal job. I don't
watch much TV. Have they done any celebrity endorsements around
the five dollars meal done?
Speaker 3 (23:04):
I have not that I've seen. I was hoping for
a Mike Hale and Mike Halen meal and it just
was like, you know, a whole bunch of mcflurries and
you know it would be great, But I haven't seen anything.
But again, I've seen different discount and yeah, I think
what they did was they used to have a I
think it was a twenty percent off promotion in the
app for for orders over. I believe it was five bucks.
(23:26):
They've raised that to effectively make you kind of buy
the five dollars offer at full price. So that's been
where I guess they've pulled back as an offset. But
but they're I think they're gonna be pretty aggressive here
going forward. And I it's just the stores look good.
(23:47):
They've been all been remodeled the last five or six years.
I think the strategy is good. I think the new
products are good, and I just wouldn't bet against them.
Speaker 1 (23:56):
Yeah, I agree.
Speaker 2 (23:58):
And for the record, the centerpiece of the Mike Hanlon
meal would be the quarter pounder with cheese and big
mac sauce.
Speaker 3 (24:05):
I just had a quarter pounder for lunch, so I'm
right there with you.
Speaker 2 (24:11):
Nice, Nice, And my guilty pleasure is a flay of
fish with an extra extra piece of really yeah yeah,
but you got to get the extra piece of cheese,
or you get it with like extra.
Speaker 1 (24:24):
Extra tartar, so you know it comes out fresh.
Speaker 3 (24:27):
I'll let you know tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (24:30):
All right, what are your thoughts on young brands you know,
they had a really rough first quarter. Yeah, you know,
and historically they've known to be you know, top of
the food chain when it comes to marketing.
Speaker 1 (24:43):
You know, can they write the ship there.
Speaker 3 (24:46):
Yeah. I mean, they've been fantastic marketers historically. I think
it's probably their biggest strength as a as an overall organization.
What i'd say McDonald's maybe scale. I think the challenge
for young is, I mean they've historically had a pizza
Hut US brand which isn't massively meaningful to the profitability.
It's probably seven or eight percent of overall profits that's
(25:07):
been pressured by Dominoes. And now they have the KFC
US business, which I think is starting to come under
pressure from raising Canes and Chick fil A and pop
Eyes and some of these businesses that are starting to
actually get even get to an even bigger size where
they're having a bigger impact on KFC. I think if
(25:28):
both of those businesses are struggling, it starts to cause
a problem. But I mean, so much of the strength
for this concept is also in the global pace of
unit growth, and I think one of the challenges for
the US franchise market is there's been I think excessive
leverage on the franchise e side of things. For the
past i'd call it six or seven years, a lot
(25:50):
of low covenant loans being made by the banking system
that has allowed kind of permanently high debt structures. Internationally,
I think a lot of the franchisees that Youum is
growing alongside really don't have leverage issues. They have much
better balance sheets, and so if you can continue to
post maybe it's not five and a half six percent
(26:13):
unit growth, but five to five and a half percent
unit growth globally, this is a stock that's trading probably
too cheap for that. And we made a point in
our note recently on Yum. I remember when Hilton marrying
some of these hotels traded at two three four turned
discounts to McDonald's and Yum because there was more confidence
in the growth of McDonald's andy Youum. Globally, that has
(26:36):
completely flipped. They are now trading it around twenty times earn,
twenty times PE and a lot of those hotel brands
franchise ors are trading the mid twenties. And when I've
heard talk to investors, I've heard more confidence on the
ability to expand those networks overseas. I wouldn't count Yum
(26:58):
out on their pace of global development. They've they've had
a very strong engine on networks with a lot of
these master franchises in different markets around.
Speaker 2 (27:08):
The globe, a long track record of success. So absolutely, Yeah,
I wouldn't been against them internationally either. Yeah, you touched
on a little bit Chicken, you expect it to remain hot.
Speaker 3 (27:20):
Given my personal consumption, it's it shifted a lot to
a lot more aggressively towards Chicken. I think I think
we would expect that to be pretty, to be a
strong growth category, continue to be a strong growth category.
And I remember I put a note out I think
it was in twenty twenty seventeens. This is seven years stale,
(27:41):
but just looking at the impact of Chick fil A
and Subway on the on the US restaurant industry and
how they were kind of offsetting dynamics and offsetting pressure,
Like you were getting a benefit from the fact that
somebody was donating share and you were getting a drag
from the fact that Chick fil A was was taking share.
But they were relatively offset I think with how much
(28:02):
pressure Canes and Chick fil A are applying to the
to the overall sector. That may partially explain what's going
on from a quick service backdrop. And and and I
think some of that's just the shift to chicken. I
think some of that's the business models, and and that
the corporate entity is aligned with the operators of the
(28:22):
stores in a way that some of the public usrs.
It's it's not as much or not as apparent.
Speaker 2 (28:29):
Yeah, Chick fil A is such a monster man. And
I still haven't been to a raising canes.
Speaker 1 (28:33):
I have to. I have to get on that.
Speaker 3 (28:36):
Your options, I think are chicken fingers, chicken fingers or
chicken fingers when you go, so I can tell you
what you're going to order.
Speaker 2 (28:44):
And sauces too, Right, sauces have have been a hot,
uh like kind of hot this year. Right first was
KFC had saucy nugs, and then Wendy's followed suit.
Speaker 1 (28:54):
Right, sauces are are back in a big way.
Speaker 3 (28:57):
It seems like we we we bought that I think
it was four of the different flavors of Wendy's Saucy
Nugs and brought them out to the trading floor and
someone and they were a little bit undersauce, but someone said, Wow,
I sort of forgot how good Wendy's nuggets are. And
so some of it, I think is it's very easy
(29:17):
operationally to take an existing product that you already think
is good if you're the brand, and do a little
bit to it. You don't have to add a lot
of skews. It's it's kind of a simple product line extension.
And a lot of those guys are pulling the lever.
Speaker 1 (29:29):
And you remind me, do cover Wendy's.
Speaker 3 (29:31):
I do cover Wendy's.
Speaker 2 (29:32):
What your thoughts on Wendy's right now? Because I mean
they for the longest time they ever had that like
QSR plus positioning, and you know that's now there's like
QSR plus plus with.
Speaker 1 (29:44):
Via like Chick fil A, right, And so.
Speaker 2 (29:48):
I don't know have they lost some of that, like
cachet of being a better player. And at the same time,
we've also seen everybody else kind of up their game, right,
McDonald's put a lot of effort and improving their burgers
and their chicken.
Speaker 1 (29:59):
So where does Wendy the stand right now?
Speaker 3 (30:02):
The stock's been under tremendous pressure, and I think some
of that has been They've made some aggressive promises over
the years. I mean, I think Reef Kitchen and the
impact of that to accelerate unit growth really hurt their
credibility on a lot of their long term guidances.
Speaker 1 (30:20):
International did not work out well either for them.
Speaker 3 (30:23):
It's been okay, and I think the positive I would
say in the international business is the flow through when
they open up stores. The flow through is higher than
when Yamer McDonald open up lower AUV boxes in China
with low royalty rates. So I think from that perspective
it's been all right. But when you guide aggressively and
(30:45):
you kind of disappoint it a few times, people start
just kind of ignoring the guidance, and they don't have
a long term framework out there right now. I think
they're gonna likely do something on that front as we
get later here later this year. And I mean the
stock is, the stock is tremendously cheap, particularly if they
(31:08):
can just plod along with a couple points the unit
growth and a few points of comps. It's it's a
very strong brand and I think has a lot of
franchisey demand, just which is shows up in the fact
that they get six and a half seven turns of
EBITDA and a lot of their franchise sales multiples, which
I think shows you that there is demand from franchise
(31:30):
and there's demand for the returns.
Speaker 1 (31:32):
Yeah. I was always a big fan of Wendy's.
Speaker 2 (31:34):
I don't know if they had like a really really
top notch franchisee in New Jersey, which may be part
of the case, but growing up, it was like the
best QSR experience was so good.
Speaker 3 (31:45):
The taco salad because we're giving, we're spilling our our
our number one items here, the taco salad with just
a frosty on the side, chocolate frosty. I I can't.
Speaker 1 (31:56):
You can't beat it. Oh so good man.
Speaker 2 (31:58):
Yeah, I always was a fan of Wendy's and I'm
interested to see because that first quarter wasn't that bad, no,
you know what I mean. And I thought there was
kind of an overreaction there, you know.
Speaker 1 (32:09):
I think, guess the new CEO has.
Speaker 2 (32:11):
To has to, you know, gain the faith of the
investor base after a tough initial earnings call.
Speaker 3 (32:18):
But I think investors are concerned that they're in the
crossairs from from McDonald's with this five dollars platform. I
think that's weighing on the stock as well, if if
if we get through this and Wendy's didn't take a
big sales hit, I think that will relieve a lot
of pressure.
Speaker 1 (32:34):
Makes a lot of sense, all right, gun to the head.
Speaker 2 (32:36):
What kind of comps can quick service and casual dining
put up in the second half, like on average?
Speaker 1 (32:42):
You know what I mean?
Speaker 3 (32:42):
Like? What?
Speaker 1 (32:43):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (32:44):
I think we should be able to see point point
or two of acceleration. I I I I think one
of the challenges that's that's that we've experienced is as
you've moved from high inflation to kind of benign inflation,
it just makes it very difficult to push through pricing.
(33:05):
But if you start to see cogs inflation pick up
a little bit as you go through the year, I
think you're gonna see a little bit more confidence from
some of these companies in terms of their ability to
to not have to take pricing to zero. And so
I from that perspective, I'm somewhat optimistic that maybe resurging
(33:26):
cogs inflation could help. But I don't think you're gonna
see a big step up the consumer. The loancome consumer
is just a bit tapped out, So I wouldn't expect
two three four points of acceleration. It just that's just
not happening.
Speaker 1 (33:39):
Yeah, for sure, it's gonna be uh, it's gonna be interesting.
Speaker 2 (33:42):
And we have the Olympics and the election, and you know,
higher costs for advertising, so you know, it's always something.
Speaker 1 (33:50):
I'm sure.
Speaker 2 (33:51):
I'm sure the companies we cover can't wait to get
to December and those really easy comps from last year.
Speaker 3 (33:56):
We we should own whatever stock sells the cell the
food that's going to be delivered to us and our
bunkers around the around the election. That's who who was
delivered to the bunker. Maybe maybe it's a uber into DoorDash.
Speaker 1 (34:08):
I don't know. I have to check out the valuations
on those form my p A.
Speaker 2 (34:14):
Yeah, Greg, you're the best man.
Speaker 1 (34:17):
Thanks for doing this, Oky, thanks for your time. I
appreciate Mike, and a big thanks to the audience for
tuning in. If you liked the episode, please share it
with your colleagues and friends.
Speaker 2 (34:26):
Check back soon for a conversation with Andrew Smith, the
managing partner and co founder of Savory Fund.
Host
Michael Halen
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