April 15, 2025 • 21 mins
Jason gives his full breakdown and prediction for the first round series between the 3-seed New York Knicks and the 6-seed Detroit Pistons. He goes through the series betting odds, how the teams fared against each other in the regular season, and the major swing factors including how the rest of the Knicks roster will play alongside Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns and will the Pistons be able to get enough help around Cade Cunningham to stay in the series.
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume. The NBA eighty two game grind is done,
and now the real fun begins. The NBA Playoffs aren't here,
and it's time for all the high stakes drama, clutch moments,
and jaw dropping plays. I can't wait. If you're looking
to make the playoffs even more exciting, DraftKings Sportsbook has
you covered as an official sports betting partner of the
(00:22):
NBA from the playing games all the way through to
the finals. Now's the time to back your favorite players
and teams as they chase glory. All season long. DraftKings
has been the go to spot for NBA player props
and that does not stop. Now. Want to make your
playoff experience even more intense, Try placing a bet on
your favorite player's performance. Well they drop thirty points, forty
or more, it's your call. Ready to place your first bet?
(00:42):
Download the DraftKings Sportsbook gap Now lock in your bets.
Let's make this playoff run unforgettable. Here's something special for
first timers. New DraftKings customers. Bet five dollars to get
two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Instantly make it a
playoff run to remember with DraftKings. Download the Draft Kings
sportsbook gap and use code hoops that's h oops. That's
code hoops for new customers to get two hundred dollars
(01:05):
in bonus bets when you bet just five bucks only
on DraftKings. The Crown is yours. Gambling problem called Wayne
hundred gambler In New York call eight seven seven eight
Hope and y or text hope and why to four
six seven three sixty nine. In Connecticut, help us available
for problem gambling Call eight eight eight seven eight nine
seven seven seven seven or visit CCPG dot org. Please
(01:26):
play responsibly on behalf of Boothill Casino and Resort in
Kansas twenty one plus. Age and eligibility varies by jurisdiction.
Void in Ontario, new customers only. Bonus bets expire one
hundred and sixty eight hours after issuance. For additional terms
and responsible gaming resources, see dkang dot co. Slash audio.
(01:56):
All right, welcome to Hoops tonight. Here as the volume
Havy Tuesday. Everybody. Hope you guys are having a great week. Well,
we are starting our series previews today. We're starting with
our first one, the Detroit Pistons and the New York
Knicks we're gonna do the same kind of sequence for
every series preview. I'm gonna do the recap of the
season series off the front. Then we're gonna go over
the odds, the gambling odds on DraftKings. I'm going to
(02:19):
look at each team on both sides of the ball,
and then after that, I'm going to go over the
major swing factors that I expect to play a role
in the series, and then at the end, I will
give my pick, pretty similar to what we've done over
the last few years. You guys know the joke before
we get started. Subscribe to the Hoops Tonight YouTube channels.
You don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me
on Twitter at underscore JSNLT so you guys don't miss
(02:39):
show announcements. Don't forget about a podcast fet where we
get your podcast on O Hoops Tonight. It's also super
helpful if you leave a rating and review on that front.
We're doing some great work on social right now on Twitter, Instagram,
and Facebook on the Hoops Tonight feed, So make sure
you guys follow those social media channels, and the last
min at least keep dropping mailbag questions wherever underneath these
videos in the full episodes. Just put mail bag with
the colon. Put your questions that we can get to
(03:01):
our mailbags once a week here throughout the remainder of
the season. All right, let's talk some basketball. So series
recap for Pistons Knicks. They face four times this year.
The Knicks won the first game early in the year
in Detroit by thirty. Jalen Brunson really torched them in
that one. Then the Pistons beat the next three times
in a row. It's worth mentioning that they were missing
Cat for one of those games and missing Og for another,
(03:23):
but they did beat them at full strength in Madison
Square Garden once earlier this season. The odds right now
on DraftKings, the Knicks are a minus four to twenty
five favorite, regardless of who you're picking to win this series.
I think that's great value for Detroit. Detroit right now
on DraftKings is plus three point thirty to win the series.
(03:44):
That's just a great value you bet in my opinion,
because I do believe they can win this series. Let's
take a look at Detroit on offense. So again, obligatory upfront,
I have to say matchups don't mean as much as
they used to. In the old and the old NBA,
there was nowhere near as much switching of screens, and
(04:04):
so a lot of times like who was guarding who
played a massive role in who would win a series.
These days, there's so much more switching, especially one through four.
But also the game is so much more transition based.
A good like twenty percent of the game is in
transition now. As a result of that, you end up
with a lot of transition cross matches where guys are
just guarding the nearest player to them in that transition situation.
(04:25):
So matchups don't mean as much as they used to,
but it is at least worth going over them because
they do play a significant role in the regular season.
Thibodeau would deploy McHale Bridges on Kate Cunningham. We're going
to get into that concept a lot, because I think
I would go a different direction, used og Annobi primarily
on Tobias Harris, Jalen Brunson on Aasar Thompson, Josh Hart
(04:47):
on Tim Hardaway Junior, and Karl Anthony Towns on their centers. Now, again,
the main thing I would flip here is I would
put og on Kate the way I would organize off
of that, is I'd put Josh Hart on Tobias Harris,
and then I'd put McHale Bridges on the aggressive shooters
that Detroit uses Timartaway Junior, mainly Malik Beasley when he
comes into the game. We'll talk about that a little
bit more in a little bit, but the main thing
(05:08):
is is that OG is much better at dealing with
power pick and role players than McHale Bridges is. I've
seen a lot on film of Cad being able to
just bump mkale off with just that right shoulder as
he puts him in the sidecar and pick and roll,
and he's just more comfortable keeping his base against McHale.
And really, this is one of the most important concepts
(05:30):
I want to talk about as we get into all
these series previews, most of the things are going to
boil down to. Look, we'll have all sorts of factors,
all sorts of different things we discussed, but it's really
going to boil down to is your offense or your defense,
Excuse me, is your defense going to be able to
make their offense more uncomfortable then their defense can make
your offense, And so everything really comes down to comfort
(05:53):
there are all these like swing factors that you see
in playoff series, right, like, well, did your co star
play well? Role players play well? Did you knock down
three point shots? Did your grifters get foul calls that night? Like?
There's so many different things that can go in various
directions in playoff games. But with all that variability, the
way to get that to more frequently tilt towards you
(06:16):
is to be the more comfortable team. If you're the
more comfortable team, your stars more comfortable. If your stars
more comfortable, he's generating better advantages, generates better advantages. It's
easier for your role players to play good basketball. That
is really what it comes down to, is that comfort.
So Detroit's pathway to beating the Knicks in the series
stems from Kate Cunningham's ability to be the most comfortable
(06:37):
shot creator on the floor. The Knicks really do not
want to switch with Jalen Brunson and Karl Anthony Towns.
They're gonna run variations of drop with Carl Towns, and
they're gonna run variation basically just hedging and recovering with Brunson,
but they'll occasionally blitz with him. But Essentially, what that
means is there's gonna be two on the ball and
both of those actions. For Cat sometimes it blitz, sometimes
(06:59):
at the level deeper drop with Brunson, sometimes a hedge,
sometimes a trap, but in each case both of them
are devoting their resources towards the ball. This is exactly
why I would go with Og Andnobi if I was
the Nicks instead of McHale Bridges. In all of those schemes,
it requires you to chase over the top. You're running
a deep drop, you want Og chasing over the top,
(07:21):
or McHale Bridges chasing over the top. You're at the
level you want them chasing over the top. They're blitzing,
you want them chasing over the top. And if you're
targeting Brunson, you want them chasing over the top. You
want that defender to stay attached as much as possible
throughout this, and so if you're trying to stay attached
to Caid and you're trying to stay attached to them
with a skinny player, that Caid can bump off of
(07:41):
him whenever he wants. It's just harder to make him uncomfortable.
Og consistently has been one of the better defenders against
power pick and roll players that I've seen, and this
could be a huge swing in this series. Like when
you combine his comfort, Caid's comfort against Mkale and their
ability to consider simply find actions against Brunson and Kat
(08:02):
to get them in rotation. Kid's been torching them. Kid's
averaging thirty one points, five rebounds, and eight assists with
only two and a half turnovers on fifty six percent
from the field, fifty two percent from three, and eighty
percent from the line in this matchup against this team,
it plays MVP basketball against the Knicks, as another way
to put it, so you have to find a way
(08:22):
to flip that dynamic, and to me, putting a power
defender against the power pick and role player is the
better way to make him uncomfortable. I do prefer McHale
bridges against speed. He's harder to screen, he's a little
more slender, a little bit more quick footed, better at
navigating those screens, and he's better at staying attached against
the speedy guards and different types of shot creators that
(08:43):
you'll find in this league. But against power, I like
OG's ability to win the ground battle. I think there's
a chance that tips starts this series with McHale and
Caid has a really big game early in the series
in game one or Game two to potential steal a
game before Tibbs learns his lesson. We'll keep an eye
(09:03):
on that over the course of this series. I also
like deploying McHale Bridges on the shooters because they're a
huge part of Detroit's offense. Malik Beasley in particular, will
come into the game looking to be super aggressive, not
just as a spot up shooter, but as a score.
He'll pump fake, he'll relocate, he'll put the ball on
the floor, he'll shoot floaters, shoot mid range jump shots.
He is an aggressive score. McHale Bridges is the type
(09:26):
of defender that could shut down a guy like Malik Beasley.
So I just kind of like deploying them in those
sorts of ways. Also, I think OG is kind of
wasted on a guy like Tobias Harris. Like Tobias Harris
has had his moments. The series had stretches this year
after Jade and Ivy went down, or he's been a
guy that they've used as a secondary scorer, but primarily
(09:48):
at this point in the season, especially since Dennis Schroeder's
come around. He's more of an off ball scorer. He's
not looking to create offense all that often. As a
matter of fact, the last time Tobias Harris scored more
than five points in a single game out of the
post was February twenty fourth. February twenty first, excuse me,
the last time he scored more than five points in
ISO situations was all the way back on March eighth.
(10:11):
He'll get his touches and he might hit a little
right shoulder fade away. He might drive and shoot a
little floater off the glass or something like that. You
can't overreact to that because he's just not doing it
at enough volume to justify deploying og An Andobe as
the primary defender on him. I think that's a misallocation
of resources either way. Even with og on Cad, I
(10:31):
do think with the screening actions with Brunson and Cat,
Caid will be able to generate quality shots first team
in the series. I just think you can limit that
a little bit by changing the matchups a little bit.
But that ability of Kid to attack Brunson and Cat
is why I don't think this will be a short
series like I would be surprised if the Pistons got
swept in this series. Right, this is what it's gonna
(10:53):
come down to, the comfort of Caid Cunningham. The Knicks
are not going to just shut down Detroit's offense. They
will have their moments and I do believe they'll win
some games as a result. Moving to the Knicks on
the offensive end of the four, Interestingly enough, with the matchups,
Bigger Staff has deployed Kay Cunningham as the primary defender
on Jalen Brunson in this matchup. Kate apparently is asked
(11:16):
for high leverage defensive assignments over the course of the season,
which speaks to his competitiveness. Kate has good size. I'll
be curious to see if they do this again to
start the series, especially with the massive offensive load that's
going to be on Kaid, But I wouldn't be shocked if,
similar to the regular season, if we saw Kid start
the series on Brunson. The way they set up the
rest of the matchups, they put a Ssar Thompson on
(11:37):
McHale Bridges, they put Tim Hardaway Junior on Josh Hart,
Debis Harris on og Anodobi and Jalen Duran on Karl
Anthony Towns. There's a couple of different configurations they could
go with. They could put a Sar Thompson on Josh
Hart and put Tim Hardaway Junior on mchal Bridges because
McHale's coming off of a lot of screening actions. Tim
Hardaway Junior does have some experience as a lock and
trail defender, so that's a potential way to use him.
(12:00):
There also, Asar Thompson roaming off of Josh Hart, where
he can kind of be a wrecking ball in the lane,
I think is a valuable way to potential to use him.
You could also go with the more traditional matchup, which
is take your best perimeter defender a SAR and just
put him on Jayleen Brunson, which I'm certain we'll see
that at various points in the series. But you put
a SAR on Brunson, then you put Kay Cunningham on
(12:22):
Josh Hart, so that Caid can kind of roam around
and save his legs a little bit, focus more on
defensive rebounding and just kind of contending with Josh's physicality
and the paint. Again, I think we're gonna see plenty
of all of those looks. Throughout the series, but I
wouldn't be surprised if they started with Kid cunning him
on Brunson. I think Detroit's biggest matchup problem against the
(12:42):
Knicks is Karl Anthony Towns. Detroit's biggs, especially Jalen Duran,
but both of them really struggle defending out on the
perimeter at times. Karl Anthony Towns is feasted in this matchup,
specifically on those bigs and their natural tendency to sink
into the paint, especially in transition situation. A lot of
like easy looks as a trailing big in transition for
(13:04):
Kat in this matchup. He's averaged twenty four points per
game against the Pistons this year, shooting forty four percent
from three. He's been very comfortable. I'm sure over the
course of the series. J bicker Staff will be watching
Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duran in kind of like seeing
which one of those guys does a better job against Kat,
and then leaning more into that guy. My guess is
(13:24):
it'll end up being Isaiah Stewart. Isaiah Stewart is also
just a little bit more polished offensively in more various
ways than just directly under the basket, but I do
think Kat's going to be comfortable behind the arc in
this series relative to some other matchups that the Knicks
could have run into now. Brunson torched the Pistons in
the first game early in the season, but they've reasonably
(13:46):
held him in check in the three Pistons wins. Kate
has done a nice job of funneling him towards the sideline,
staying attached so he can't just shoot that easy little
pull up jump shot in the mid range. McHale's been
great in this matchup all season long. He's shooting fifty
two percent from three and averaging twenty points per game.
I think the main key for the Knicks when they're
on offense is to avoid falling into the trap of
(14:07):
just playing helio centric Brunson ball. The whole purpose of
trading for McHale, Bridges and Og Andnobi is their OFFENSEI versatility.
You tried the heliocentric thing in the last two years.
It doesn't work right. It puts too much on Brunson.
Brunson's eventually gonna break down, right, Like, you need to
find a way to diversify a little bit. O g
has been flashing. Finally, this Kawhi esque upside that we
(14:31):
all thought he had back when he was in Toronto.
He's gonna have favorable matchups here. McHale Bridges has been
comfortable in this matchup. If you lean into Brunson ball,
it's very possible just because of the way the matchups
hang out, that kid ends up just being more comfortable
and doing a better job on the other end, and
you could lose the series. But Kad does not have
the supporting shot creation talent that the Knicks had. It's
(14:52):
a lot of Malik Beasley, It's a lot of Dennis Schroeder,
It's a lot of Tobias Harris. You have more talent
in that regard the players. Their path is good scoring balance,
winning the war of offensive attrition as Caid slowly fatigues
from having to do everything in his first ever playoff series. Ironically,
(15:13):
if you flip it over, this is why teams like
the Pacers have given so many issues to the Pistons
this year. They spread them out, they attack them with
aggregate offensive talent. That is where your advantage is in
this series, and that's the way that the Knicks need
to play. Potential major swing factors Aids jump shooting. Things
get tougher in the playoffs. Defenses are more disciplined, the
(15:35):
easier opportunities are fewer and further between, especially if you
get Og in there Og and he defends him well,
it could be a fewer of those five to seven
foot jump shots, more fifteen to seventeen foot jump shots,
a little bit further from the basket, a little bit tougher,
more disruption in his base. Tough shot making is going
to be a big part of what Aid's going to
(15:57):
have to do in this series. Two Karl Anthony town
pick and pop jump shot in the Brunson two man game,
you can't necessarily switch and just put stew or Jalen
Duran on Brunson in space. It's one of those things
where there's going to be situations where Karl Anthony Towns
when he pops, is going to have a close out
either coming to him from the action or coming to
(16:17):
him from the weak side. And Cat's ability to score
and attack out of those pick and pops is gonna
be one of the biggest advantages that the Knicks have
in the series. And how effective he is as a
scorer there could swing things three, Dennis Schroeder's backup playmaking.
The Pistons ended up going after Schroeder as an upgrade
to Marcus Sasser at the backup guard spot after what
happened with Jade and Ivy and his injury. He's going
(16:39):
to lead to Kay Cunningham off the Floorida units. He's
also going to play some second side with Katie, usually
like middle fourth quarter. You'll see it a little bit.
You'll see these phases of the game where Cad and
Dennis are out there together and Dennis will be the
guy that's running the action on the weak side against
the second best perimeter defender. Dennis is a competitive dude.
(17:00):
I liked rooting for him when he was with the Lakers,
but he does have somewhat of a wide range of play,
Like you can catch Dennis on a night where he
can't do anything offensively, and you can catch Dennis on
a night where he looks like an All star guard literally.
So it's one of those things with Dennis where the
level that he's able to get to in this series
once again, could be a giant swing factor in this series.
(17:23):
The shooting of Tim Hardaway Junior and Malik Beasley both
guys historically are great at taking and making contested catch
and shoot jump shots, the kinds of jump shots that
don't matter what the defense is doing. Malik Beasley this
year on a contested ketch and shoot jump shot is
getting one point twenty nine points per shot. Tim Hardaway
has been lower this year, zero point nine to five,
(17:45):
but he's capable and we've seen him do it in
the past. If those dudes just get crazy hot and
make a bunch of like kind of contested catch and
shoot jump shots off of spray outs from kid, that
can be a massive swing factor in Detroit's favor in
this series. The Brunson Kide matchup. I know it's kind
of reductive, but sometimes playoff series just come down to
(18:07):
who's star plays better. If Kay Cunningham out plays Jalen Brunson,
that could swing the series entirely towards Detroit. And then
the last one, Anenobi's scoring og had this incredible run
of Kawhi esque scoring. Then he runs into a really
important game late in the season against the Celtics and
(18:29):
he can't score. If he goes for twenty five points
per game on a lead efficiency, I think the Pistons
just won't have the firepower to keep up in this series.
Which version of og and and Obi are we going
to get in this matchup? It's a major swing factor
my pick. I'm taking the Knicks in six games. I
think it's going to be a longer series for all
of the reasons I mentioned earlier about Kaid being able
(18:51):
to get comfortable. But I'm picking the Knicks for a
handful of reasons. One, I think the Knicks have more
adjustments available to them than they showed in the regular season.
We talked about the idea of og An Andobi guarding
Kate Cunningham. I think they have even other configurations that
they can go with. The Knicks also have more offensive variety,
(19:12):
which means like, oh, this action isn't working, we can
look to go to this guy, we can look to
go to that guy. They have four guys in their
starting lineup that can credibly generate offense on their own
through various types of actions. That is a luxury that
the Pistons don't have a lot of times. As you
go match up to matchup, it's like, okay, in this series,
Brunson has the advantage. He's going to go nuts in
(19:32):
this series, Kat has the advantage. We're going to go
through him a ton in this series. It's like they
just do not have a body that can guard og Anoby.
We're going to play a lot through og Anoby. That's
a flexibility series to series that the Knicks have that
the Pistons don't have. And in this series, we'll see
it could end up being a series where og leads
the team in scoring. That's the type of luxury that
it is that you have when you have the type
(19:53):
of offensive variety that the Knicks have. And then lastly,
the Knicks are far and away the more experienced team
in addition to being more talented on paper, this is
a series that historically in the NBA, teams like the
Pistons haven't won this type of series. There's an adjustment
to playoff basketball. There's an unfamiliarity with what this type
(20:16):
of basketball looks like. The Knicks have been in multi
series playoff runs two years in a row now. Karl
Anthony talents just got out of a Conference finals run
with the Timberwolves. They are deeply familiar with the setting
and what it takes. They also have home court. To me,
it's just even though we have all of this sample
of data from the Pistons winning three games in a row.
(20:36):
That to me is more just an example that the
Pistons will have moments in this series where they look
good and competitive and most likely win a couple of games.
The Knicks are more talented, they have home court, they're
way more experienced, and they're way more versatile. That to me,
is going to be the driving force behind the Knicks
getting this done. All Right, guys, that's all I have
(20:56):
for this particular video. As always, I sincerely appreciate you
guys supporting me and supporting the show. I'll see you
a little bit later today for our preview of Bucks Pacers.
What's Up? Guys? As always, I appreciate you for listening
to and supporting OOPS tonight. They would actually be really
helpful for us if you guys would take a second
and leave a rating and a review. As always, I
appreciate you guys supporting us, but if you could take
(21:17):
a minute to do that, I'd really appreciate it. The
volume
The volume. The NBA eighty two game grind is done,
and now the real fun begins. The NBA Playoffs aren't here,
and it's time for all the high stakes drama, clutch moments,
and jaw dropping plays. I can't wait. If you're looking
to make the playoffs even more exciting, DraftKings Sportsbook has
you covered as an official sports betting partner of the
(00:22):
NBA from the playing games all the way through to
the finals. Now's the time to back your favorite players
and teams as they chase glory. All season long. DraftKings
has been the go to spot for NBA player props
and that does not stop. Now. Want to make your
playoff experience even more intense, Try placing a bet on
your favorite player's performance. Well they drop thirty points, forty
or more, it's your call. Ready to place your first bet?
(00:42):
Download the DraftKings Sportsbook gap Now lock in your bets.
Let's make this playoff run unforgettable. Here's something special for
first timers. New DraftKings customers. Bet five dollars to get
two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Instantly make it a
playoff run to remember with DraftKings. Download the Draft Kings
sportsbook gap and use code hoops that's h oops. That's
code hoops for new customers to get two hundred dollars
(01:05):
in bonus bets when you bet just five bucks only
on DraftKings. The Crown is yours. Gambling problem called Wayne
hundred gambler In New York call eight seven seven eight
Hope and y or text hope and why to four
six seven three sixty nine. In Connecticut, help us available
for problem gambling Call eight eight eight seven eight nine
seven seven seven seven or visit CCPG dot org. Please
(01:26):
play responsibly on behalf of Boothill Casino and Resort in
Kansas twenty one plus. Age and eligibility varies by jurisdiction.
Void in Ontario, new customers only. Bonus bets expire one
hundred and sixty eight hours after issuance. For additional terms
and responsible gaming resources, see dkang dot co. Slash audio.
(01:56):
All right, welcome to Hoops tonight. Here as the volume
Havy Tuesday. Everybody. Hope you guys are having a great week. Well,
we are starting our series previews today. We're starting with
our first one, the Detroit Pistons and the New York
Knicks we're gonna do the same kind of sequence for
every series preview. I'm gonna do the recap of the
season series off the front. Then we're gonna go over
the odds, the gambling odds on DraftKings. I'm going to
(02:19):
look at each team on both sides of the ball,
and then after that, I'm going to go over the
major swing factors that I expect to play a role
in the series, and then at the end, I will
give my pick, pretty similar to what we've done over
the last few years. You guys know the joke before
we get started. Subscribe to the Hoops Tonight YouTube channels.
You don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me
on Twitter at underscore JSNLT so you guys don't miss
(02:39):
show announcements. Don't forget about a podcast fet where we
get your podcast on O Hoops Tonight. It's also super
helpful if you leave a rating and review on that front.
We're doing some great work on social right now on Twitter, Instagram,
and Facebook on the Hoops Tonight feed, So make sure
you guys follow those social media channels, and the last
min at least keep dropping mailbag questions wherever underneath these
videos in the full episodes. Just put mail bag with
the colon. Put your questions that we can get to
(03:01):
our mailbags once a week here throughout the remainder of
the season. All right, let's talk some basketball. So series
recap for Pistons Knicks. They face four times this year.
The Knicks won the first game early in the year
in Detroit by thirty. Jalen Brunson really torched them in
that one. Then the Pistons beat the next three times
in a row. It's worth mentioning that they were missing
Cat for one of those games and missing Og for another,
(03:23):
but they did beat them at full strength in Madison
Square Garden once earlier this season. The odds right now
on DraftKings, the Knicks are a minus four to twenty
five favorite, regardless of who you're picking to win this series.
I think that's great value for Detroit. Detroit right now
on DraftKings is plus three point thirty to win the series.
(03:44):
That's just a great value you bet in my opinion,
because I do believe they can win this series. Let's
take a look at Detroit on offense. So again, obligatory upfront,
I have to say matchups don't mean as much as
they used to. In the old and the old NBA,
there was nowhere near as much switching of screens, and
(04:04):
so a lot of times like who was guarding who
played a massive role in who would win a series.
These days, there's so much more switching, especially one through four.
But also the game is so much more transition based.
A good like twenty percent of the game is in
transition now. As a result of that, you end up
with a lot of transition cross matches where guys are
just guarding the nearest player to them in that transition situation.
(04:25):
So matchups don't mean as much as they used to,
but it is at least worth going over them because
they do play a significant role in the regular season.
Thibodeau would deploy McHale Bridges on Kate Cunningham. We're going
to get into that concept a lot, because I think
I would go a different direction, used og Annobi primarily
on Tobias Harris, Jalen Brunson on Aasar Thompson, Josh Hart
(04:47):
on Tim Hardaway Junior, and Karl Anthony Towns on their centers. Now, again,
the main thing I would flip here is I would
put og on Kate the way I would organize off
of that, is I'd put Josh Hart on Tobias Harris,
and then I'd put McHale Bridges on the aggressive shooters
that Detroit uses Timartaway Junior, mainly Malik Beasley when he
comes into the game. We'll talk about that a little
bit more in a little bit, but the main thing
(05:08):
is is that OG is much better at dealing with
power pick and role players than McHale Bridges is. I've
seen a lot on film of Cad being able to
just bump mkale off with just that right shoulder as
he puts him in the sidecar and pick and roll,
and he's just more comfortable keeping his base against McHale.
And really, this is one of the most important concepts
(05:30):
I want to talk about as we get into all
these series previews, most of the things are going to
boil down to. Look, we'll have all sorts of factors,
all sorts of different things we discussed, but it's really
going to boil down to is your offense or your defense,
Excuse me, is your defense going to be able to
make their offense more uncomfortable then their defense can make
your offense, And so everything really comes down to comfort
(05:53):
there are all these like swing factors that you see
in playoff series, right, like, well, did your co star
play well? Role players play well? Did you knock down
three point shots? Did your grifters get foul calls that night? Like?
There's so many different things that can go in various
directions in playoff games. But with all that variability, the
way to get that to more frequently tilt towards you
(06:16):
is to be the more comfortable team. If you're the
more comfortable team, your stars more comfortable. If your stars
more comfortable, he's generating better advantages, generates better advantages. It's
easier for your role players to play good basketball. That
is really what it comes down to, is that comfort.
So Detroit's pathway to beating the Knicks in the series
stems from Kate Cunningham's ability to be the most comfortable
(06:37):
shot creator on the floor. The Knicks really do not
want to switch with Jalen Brunson and Karl Anthony Towns.
They're gonna run variations of drop with Carl Towns, and
they're gonna run variation basically just hedging and recovering with Brunson,
but they'll occasionally blitz with him. But Essentially, what that
means is there's gonna be two on the ball and
both of those actions. For Cat sometimes it blitz, sometimes
(06:59):
at the level deeper drop with Brunson, sometimes a hedge,
sometimes a trap, but in each case both of them
are devoting their resources towards the ball. This is exactly
why I would go with Og Andnobi if I was
the Nicks instead of McHale Bridges. In all of those schemes,
it requires you to chase over the top. You're running
a deep drop, you want Og chasing over the top,
(07:21):
or McHale Bridges chasing over the top. You're at the
level you want them chasing over the top. They're blitzing,
you want them chasing over the top. And if you're
targeting Brunson, you want them chasing over the top. You
want that defender to stay attached as much as possible
throughout this, and so if you're trying to stay attached
to Caid and you're trying to stay attached to them
with a skinny player, that Caid can bump off of
(07:41):
him whenever he wants. It's just harder to make him uncomfortable.
Og consistently has been one of the better defenders against
power pick and roll players that I've seen, and this
could be a huge swing in this series. Like when
you combine his comfort, Caid's comfort against Mkale and their
ability to consider simply find actions against Brunson and Kat
(08:02):
to get them in rotation. Kid's been torching them. Kid's
averaging thirty one points, five rebounds, and eight assists with
only two and a half turnovers on fifty six percent
from the field, fifty two percent from three, and eighty
percent from the line in this matchup against this team,
it plays MVP basketball against the Knicks, as another way
to put it, so you have to find a way
(08:22):
to flip that dynamic, and to me, putting a power
defender against the power pick and role player is the
better way to make him uncomfortable. I do prefer McHale
bridges against speed. He's harder to screen, he's a little
more slender, a little bit more quick footed, better at
navigating those screens, and he's better at staying attached against
the speedy guards and different types of shot creators that
(08:43):
you'll find in this league. But against power, I like
OG's ability to win the ground battle. I think there's
a chance that tips starts this series with McHale and
Caid has a really big game early in the series
in game one or Game two to potential steal a
game before Tibbs learns his lesson. We'll keep an eye
(09:03):
on that over the course of this series. I also
like deploying McHale Bridges on the shooters because they're a
huge part of Detroit's offense. Malik Beasley in particular, will
come into the game looking to be super aggressive, not
just as a spot up shooter, but as a score.
He'll pump fake, he'll relocate, he'll put the ball on
the floor, he'll shoot floaters, shoot mid range jump shots.
He is an aggressive score. McHale Bridges is the type
(09:26):
of defender that could shut down a guy like Malik Beasley.
So I just kind of like deploying them in those
sorts of ways. Also, I think OG is kind of
wasted on a guy like Tobias Harris. Like Tobias Harris
has had his moments. The series had stretches this year
after Jade and Ivy went down, or he's been a
guy that they've used as a secondary scorer, but primarily
(09:48):
at this point in the season, especially since Dennis Schroeder's
come around. He's more of an off ball scorer. He's
not looking to create offense all that often. As a
matter of fact, the last time Tobias Harris scored more
than five points in a single game out of the
post was February twenty fourth. February twenty first, excuse me,
the last time he scored more than five points in
ISO situations was all the way back on March eighth.
(10:11):
He'll get his touches and he might hit a little
right shoulder fade away. He might drive and shoot a
little floater off the glass or something like that. You
can't overreact to that because he's just not doing it
at enough volume to justify deploying og An Andobe as
the primary defender on him. I think that's a misallocation
of resources either way. Even with og on Cad, I
(10:31):
do think with the screening actions with Brunson and Cat,
Caid will be able to generate quality shots first team
in the series. I just think you can limit that
a little bit by changing the matchups a little bit.
But that ability of Kid to attack Brunson and Cat
is why I don't think this will be a short
series like I would be surprised if the Pistons got
swept in this series. Right, this is what it's gonna
(10:53):
come down to, the comfort of Caid Cunningham. The Knicks
are not going to just shut down Detroit's offense. They
will have their moments and I do believe they'll win
some games as a result. Moving to the Knicks on
the offensive end of the four, Interestingly enough, with the matchups,
Bigger Staff has deployed Kay Cunningham as the primary defender
on Jalen Brunson in this matchup. Kate apparently is asked
(11:16):
for high leverage defensive assignments over the course of the season,
which speaks to his competitiveness. Kate has good size. I'll
be curious to see if they do this again to
start the series, especially with the massive offensive load that's
going to be on Kaid, But I wouldn't be shocked if,
similar to the regular season, if we saw Kid start
the series on Brunson. The way they set up the
rest of the matchups, they put a Ssar Thompson on
(11:37):
McHale Bridges, they put Tim Hardaway Junior on Josh Hart,
Debis Harris on og Anodobi and Jalen Duran on Karl
Anthony Towns. There's a couple of different configurations they could
go with. They could put a Sar Thompson on Josh
Hart and put Tim Hardaway Junior on mchal Bridges because
McHale's coming off of a lot of screening actions. Tim
Hardaway Junior does have some experience as a lock and
trail defender, so that's a potential way to use him.
(12:00):
There also, Asar Thompson roaming off of Josh Hart, where
he can kind of be a wrecking ball in the lane,
I think is a valuable way to potential to use him.
You could also go with the more traditional matchup, which
is take your best perimeter defender a SAR and just
put him on Jayleen Brunson, which I'm certain we'll see
that at various points in the series. But you put
a SAR on Brunson, then you put Kay Cunningham on
(12:22):
Josh Hart, so that Caid can kind of roam around
and save his legs a little bit, focus more on
defensive rebounding and just kind of contending with Josh's physicality
and the paint. Again, I think we're gonna see plenty
of all of those looks. Throughout the series, but I
wouldn't be surprised if they started with Kid cunning him
on Brunson. I think Detroit's biggest matchup problem against the
(12:42):
Knicks is Karl Anthony Towns. Detroit's biggs, especially Jalen Duran,
but both of them really struggle defending out on the
perimeter at times. Karl Anthony Towns is feasted in this matchup,
specifically on those bigs and their natural tendency to sink
into the paint, especially in transition situation. A lot of
like easy looks as a trailing big in transition for
(13:04):
Kat in this matchup. He's averaged twenty four points per
game against the Pistons this year, shooting forty four percent
from three. He's been very comfortable. I'm sure over the
course of the series. J bicker Staff will be watching
Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duran in kind of like seeing
which one of those guys does a better job against Kat,
and then leaning more into that guy. My guess is
(13:24):
it'll end up being Isaiah Stewart. Isaiah Stewart is also
just a little bit more polished offensively in more various
ways than just directly under the basket, but I do
think Kat's going to be comfortable behind the arc in
this series relative to some other matchups that the Knicks
could have run into now. Brunson torched the Pistons in
the first game early in the season, but they've reasonably
(13:46):
held him in check in the three Pistons wins. Kate
has done a nice job of funneling him towards the sideline,
staying attached so he can't just shoot that easy little
pull up jump shot in the mid range. McHale's been
great in this matchup all season long. He's shooting fifty
two percent from three and averaging twenty points per game.
I think the main key for the Knicks when they're
on offense is to avoid falling into the trap of
(14:07):
just playing helio centric Brunson ball. The whole purpose of
trading for McHale, Bridges and Og Andnobi is their OFFENSEI versatility.
You tried the heliocentric thing in the last two years.
It doesn't work right. It puts too much on Brunson.
Brunson's eventually gonna break down, right, Like, you need to
find a way to diversify a little bit. O g
has been flashing. Finally, this Kawhi esque upside that we
(14:31):
all thought he had back when he was in Toronto.
He's gonna have favorable matchups here. McHale Bridges has been
comfortable in this matchup. If you lean into Brunson ball,
it's very possible just because of the way the matchups
hang out, that kid ends up just being more comfortable
and doing a better job on the other end, and
you could lose the series. But Kad does not have
the supporting shot creation talent that the Knicks had. It's
(14:52):
a lot of Malik Beasley, It's a lot of Dennis Schroeder,
It's a lot of Tobias Harris. You have more talent
in that regard the players. Their path is good scoring balance,
winning the war of offensive attrition as Caid slowly fatigues
from having to do everything in his first ever playoff series. Ironically,
(15:13):
if you flip it over, this is why teams like
the Pacers have given so many issues to the Pistons
this year. They spread them out, they attack them with
aggregate offensive talent. That is where your advantage is in
this series, and that's the way that the Knicks need
to play. Potential major swing factors Aids jump shooting. Things
get tougher in the playoffs. Defenses are more disciplined, the
(15:35):
easier opportunities are fewer and further between, especially if you
get Og in there Og and he defends him well,
it could be a fewer of those five to seven
foot jump shots, more fifteen to seventeen foot jump shots,
a little bit further from the basket, a little bit tougher,
more disruption in his base. Tough shot making is going
to be a big part of what Aid's going to
(15:57):
have to do in this series. Two Karl Anthony town
pick and pop jump shot in the Brunson two man game,
you can't necessarily switch and just put stew or Jalen
Duran on Brunson in space. It's one of those things
where there's going to be situations where Karl Anthony Towns
when he pops, is going to have a close out
either coming to him from the action or coming to
(16:17):
him from the weak side. And Cat's ability to score
and attack out of those pick and pops is gonna
be one of the biggest advantages that the Knicks have
in the series. And how effective he is as a
scorer there could swing things three, Dennis Schroeder's backup playmaking.
The Pistons ended up going after Schroeder as an upgrade
to Marcus Sasser at the backup guard spot after what
happened with Jade and Ivy and his injury. He's going
(16:39):
to lead to Kay Cunningham off the Floorida units. He's
also going to play some second side with Katie, usually
like middle fourth quarter. You'll see it a little bit.
You'll see these phases of the game where Cad and
Dennis are out there together and Dennis will be the
guy that's running the action on the weak side against
the second best perimeter defender. Dennis is a competitive dude.
(17:00):
I liked rooting for him when he was with the Lakers,
but he does have somewhat of a wide range of play,
Like you can catch Dennis on a night where he
can't do anything offensively, and you can catch Dennis on
a night where he looks like an All star guard literally.
So it's one of those things with Dennis where the
level that he's able to get to in this series
once again, could be a giant swing factor in this series.
(17:23):
The shooting of Tim Hardaway Junior and Malik Beasley both
guys historically are great at taking and making contested catch
and shoot jump shots, the kinds of jump shots that
don't matter what the defense is doing. Malik Beasley this
year on a contested ketch and shoot jump shot is
getting one point twenty nine points per shot. Tim Hardaway
has been lower this year, zero point nine to five,
(17:45):
but he's capable and we've seen him do it in
the past. If those dudes just get crazy hot and
make a bunch of like kind of contested catch and
shoot jump shots off of spray outs from kid, that
can be a massive swing factor in Detroit's favor in
this series. The Brunson Kide matchup. I know it's kind
of reductive, but sometimes playoff series just come down to
(18:07):
who's star plays better. If Kay Cunningham out plays Jalen Brunson,
that could swing the series entirely towards Detroit. And then
the last one, Anenobi's scoring og had this incredible run
of Kawhi esque scoring. Then he runs into a really
important game late in the season against the Celtics and
(18:29):
he can't score. If he goes for twenty five points
per game on a lead efficiency, I think the Pistons
just won't have the firepower to keep up in this series.
Which version of og and and Obi are we going
to get in this matchup? It's a major swing factor
my pick. I'm taking the Knicks in six games. I
think it's going to be a longer series for all
of the reasons I mentioned earlier about Kaid being able
(18:51):
to get comfortable. But I'm picking the Knicks for a
handful of reasons. One, I think the Knicks have more
adjustments available to them than they showed in the regular season.
We talked about the idea of og An Andobi guarding
Kate Cunningham. I think they have even other configurations that
they can go with. The Knicks also have more offensive variety,
(19:12):
which means like, oh, this action isn't working, we can
look to go to this guy, we can look to
go to that guy. They have four guys in their
starting lineup that can credibly generate offense on their own
through various types of actions. That is a luxury that
the Pistons don't have a lot of times. As you
go match up to matchup, it's like, okay, in this series,
Brunson has the advantage. He's going to go nuts in
(19:32):
this series, Kat has the advantage. We're going to go
through him a ton in this series. It's like they
just do not have a body that can guard og Anoby.
We're going to play a lot through og Anoby. That's
a flexibility series to series that the Knicks have that
the Pistons don't have. And in this series, we'll see
it could end up being a series where og leads
the team in scoring. That's the type of luxury that
it is that you have when you have the type
(19:53):
of offensive variety that the Knicks have. And then lastly,
the Knicks are far and away the more experienced team
in addition to being more talented on paper, this is
a series that historically in the NBA, teams like the
Pistons haven't won this type of series. There's an adjustment
to playoff basketball. There's an unfamiliarity with what this type
(20:16):
of basketball looks like. The Knicks have been in multi
series playoff runs two years in a row now. Karl
Anthony talents just got out of a Conference finals run
with the Timberwolves. They are deeply familiar with the setting
and what it takes. They also have home court. To me,
it's just even though we have all of this sample
of data from the Pistons winning three games in a row.
(20:36):
That to me is more just an example that the
Pistons will have moments in this series where they look
good and competitive and most likely win a couple of games.
The Knicks are more talented, they have home court, they're
way more experienced, and they're way more versatile. That to me,
is going to be the driving force behind the Knicks
getting this done. All Right, guys, that's all I have
(20:56):
for this particular video. As always, I sincerely appreciate you
guys supporting me and supporting the show. I'll see you
a little bit later today for our preview of Bucks Pacers.
What's Up? Guys? As always, I appreciate you for listening
to and supporting OOPS tonight. They would actually be really
helpful for us if you guys would take a second
and leave a rating and a review. As always, I
appreciate you guys supporting us, but if you could take
(21:17):
a minute to do that, I'd really appreciate it. The
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Jason Timpf
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