April 5, 2024 • 34 mins
Merryn Talks Money will return with an all-new episode next Friday. In the meantime, here's an election-related episode from our friends at In the City. Host Francine Lacqua and Opinion columnist Adrian Wooldridge speak with Anthony Scaramucci, a Wall Street veteran and former communications director in Donald Trump’s White House. He joins to explain why he thinks a second Trump presidency would be “dangerous.” He also talks about why he isn’t voting for his former boss and why he doesn’t think the majority of Americans will either.
Find more at https://www.bloomberg.com/podcasts/series/in-the-city
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:03):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
Hey listeners, Maren thumset web here. Hope you're enjoying your
spring break. As I mentioned on our last episode, I
am also on Easter holidays. The next new episode of
Maren Talk's Money will be available on the twelfth of April.
In the meantime, I thought i'd introduce you to another
podcast here at Bloomberg. In This City is hosted by
my colleagues Francine Lacuid, David Merritt and alegra Stratton, and
(00:28):
every week they have really interesting conversations with either key
voices in finance and business or with Bloomberg reporters on
the stories driving the conversations in London and other power
centers across the world. I think you'll enjoy it, and
if you do, be sure to subscribe wherever you listen
to your podcasts.
Speaker 1 (00:46):
There were some memorable characters in Donald Trump's administration during
his presidency, but the most memorable, arguably was probably Trump's
former communications director Anthony S. Kermucci. Now the Mooch, as
he's known, was in the role for eleven days and
if you dare say ten, he'll quickly correct you and
He's got a lot of thoughts about what might happen
to America and the world if Trump gets another go
(01:09):
in the White House.
Speaker 3 (01:10):
Now.
Speaker 1 (01:10):
I saw Anthony at an event at Bloomberg House in Davos,
and he was actually in a corner with fifteen people
laughing around him because he really brings some of these
stories alive. He's pretty dramatic, and in Davos everyone was
trying to figure out what a Trump two point zero
in the White House would mean and whether he would
get it. So I thought it made sense to get
someone who was alongside Trump during the campaign and with
(01:32):
him for a part of the ride in the White
House into our studio here in London. So this week
of conversation with Anthony Scaramucci about whether a Trump presidency
would be more right wing, how dangerous he would be,
or how beneficial he would be for financial services, and
why he's such a believer in bitcoin. Welcome to in
the City from Bloomberg's offices in the heart of the
(01:55):
Square Mile. This is our weekly podcast about the stories
driving the conversations of policymakers, howard brokers and finine seers
in the power centers the world over.
Speaker 4 (02:06):
I'm Francin Laqua and I'm David Merritt.
Speaker 1 (02:09):
And like you're actually sitting this one out, Dave.
Speaker 4 (02:10):
Yes, here in spirit, if not embody always.
Speaker 1 (02:13):
Now I'm really excited, Dave about this week's interview with
Anthony Sciamucci, which we actually did with the friend of
the show, our opinion columnist Adrian Woolridge.
Speaker 4 (02:21):
Yes, it just feels incredibly timely to speak to somebody
with such firsthand knowledge of Trump, how he operates, and
he had a ringside seat first time round, to think
about what might happen if he gets back in the
White House. It is when you mentioned it was on
everyone's mind that Davos Francine, I mean, I'm going to
be back in America next week. It is certainly on
(02:43):
everyone's mind that the elections not till November, but it's
going to be upon us for we know it.
Speaker 1 (02:49):
Yeah, And Anthony Skiramucci has this unique inside because he
was really a Trump lover, right, he backed Trump, he
went to work for Trump, and now that he's like
one of the fiercest critics of Donald Trump.
Speaker 4 (02:59):
That is the amazing thing, isn't it The swing of
opinion here from lover to hater and you know, we
are tracking closely, of course, across America a public opinion
about Donald Trump, who, as we all know, is very divisive.
We've got a pole that we're running every month. It's
in the seven what they call the Purple States, the
(03:20):
swing states. That did you see the one that was
out this week, Francine. This was a particularly interesting one
because it showed for the first time a bit of
a bump for Biden, attributed maybe to some of his
perceived success at the State of the Union address, but
he is narrowing the gap in those crucial states. Now
are people clutching at straws here to think? Is there
some hope for Biden because he's still behind in lots
(03:43):
of these places, or is this the start of a
new trend.
Speaker 1 (03:47):
It's interesting because Anthony scom which he doesn't think Trump
will get in, although he's much better organized, so he's
a better campaigner, he says, And if he does get
in in the White House, he'll know what to do,
so he could be potentially more dangerous for US democracy,
Ascriamucci says, and for the rest of the world.
Speaker 4 (04:03):
You know, but this is one of the things, isn't
it that we all remember, or maybe we've sort of
collectively forgotten a bit back in twenty sixteen. No one
thought Trump was going to win then, and you know,
sort of here we are again at this point where
the media commentators, even people who were at the ringside seat,
are saying, no, it's not possible, it's not going to happen.
So I'll be visiting the Washington Bureau next week and
(04:26):
I definitely get the sense from everybody there that you know,
November is going to be a upon us before we
know it, and this is a rematch. It's looking pretty
certain between Biden and Trump, so everyone is dusting themselves
off for that and acknowledging. You know, covering Trump administration
last time around was exhausting. You never knew what was
going to happen when you woke up every day. So
everyone is bracing for more of that. But you know,
(04:49):
we're Our coverage out of DC, of course, will be spectacular.
We've got our Washington newsletter, We've got a podcast every week,
We've got our daily news show. So check it all
out on bloomboag dot com.
Speaker 1 (05:01):
Good plug, nice shameless plug, Dave. But we do we're
pretty on top of it. Here's our conversation with the
former White House Communications director Anthony Scaramucci. Adrian, how excited
are you by having Anthony scirmuch? I'm excited. I'm excittionally
excited because for the next hour.
Speaker 3 (05:17):
We will get you everywhere with me.
Speaker 1 (05:18):
Because for the next hour we'll listen to two stories
of what it was like working for eleven days with
Donald Trump, his prediction the US economy, and we'll talk
a little bit about the markets too. Thank you for
joining us.
Speaker 3 (05:29):
It's it's awesome to be here.
Speaker 1 (05:31):
Do you ever get tired of talking about your time
in the White House?
Speaker 3 (05:35):
You know? I mean, if I'm asked about it, I'll
talk about it. You know. I like talking about it
with kids because it was such an epic fail and
getting fired like that was a It was the appearance
of a catastrophe, and I think it's a good thing
to talk to kids about where you can have missteps
in your life or a step on a land mine,
but you can survive it and what you need to
(05:58):
do to pull yourself back together. So I don't really
mind talking about it. I think the issue for me,
which I don't like because it's a really poor reflection
on me is why did I actually go work for
Trump in the first place. I think that is a
poor reflection on me, and it speaks to perhaps a
weakness and character. It speaks to ego, and it speaks
(06:20):
to pride, because ultimately that was a prideful decision. It's
a cautionary tale about putting your ego and your pride
into your decision making.
Speaker 1 (06:30):
So you didn't do it to serve the country. You
wanted to be in the White House.
Speaker 3 (06:33):
No, I certainly did it to serve the country. But
you have to understand you have a round peg in
a square hole. Okay. I worked as a wall streeter
for thirty years. I went to a couple of good schools.
I grew up in a blue collar neighborhood. Now I
can serve the American president. But the American president's crazy,
and so people that had their pride out of the equation,
(06:56):
like my very good friend Vinnie Viola. I don't know
if you would recognize that name, but he ran virt
to as the president of the merk He was named
by Donald Trump to be the Secretary of the Army.
For two hour meetings with Trump, he withdrew himself from
the position, and when I asked him why he did it,
he said, you know, after spending more time with mister Trump,
(07:17):
I realized I really couldn't work for him. He didn't
have the right executive management skills, highly insecure person, he's
not able to share credit. Or resulted with withdrawing myself
in the position. And he too, was an army veteran,
went to you know, West Point, served the country, wanted
to be the Secretary of the Army, but he felt
(07:38):
it was incongruous with Trump's personality. I wasn't brave enough
to make that statement. I was smart enough, but my
ego is in the way.
Speaker 5 (07:46):
Do you think Trump has deteriorated over the years. Do
you think he'd be worse next time round than he
was last time?
Speaker 3 (07:53):
Well, he'll be significantly worse, but not because he's deteriorated.
I think everybody deteriorates over time. He's to be seventy
eight years old, so he's a little slower. But that's
not the issue for Trump. The issue for Trump is
that he's now experienced, he's now been in the White House.
He's lost the White House. If he gets the job again,
he'll be very, very dangerous. In that job. And he's
(08:15):
also got some very experienced campaign people with him now
that believe in the expansion of unitary executive power, and
this is very, very dangerous for the society.
Speaker 5 (08:25):
Can you say a little bit more about the sort
of people he's got around him, because it seems to
me that they're different from last time. Last time had
a lot of Republican establishment, a lot of moderates, a
lot of people who didn't quite know what they were
getting themselves in. For this time, it seems to be
true believers.
Speaker 1 (08:39):
Is that right?
Speaker 3 (08:40):
I would say that that's right. A little bit of
a contrarian on this, because I really know the beast
of Donald Trump. He's such a name dropper, Adriana, it's
such a status state seeker that those people won't rise
in the cabinet. He's got them in the campaign now.
They're very discipline. I'll probably try to bring Manifort back
because Manafort has back channels at the foreign money. So
(09:02):
those people are loyalists to Trump, but also the idea
of massive expansion of executive power, and this is actually
a Dick Cheney concept. So this is like a Frankenstein
monster that was unleashed by Cheney in the early part
of the two thousands, perpetrated by him and George W. Bush.
(09:26):
And now it's become this Frankenstein golam of Donald Trump.
And so this is something that we have to stop immediately.
And then you have to ask yourself. Once Trumps stopped,
which I predict he will be stopped, what comes after
Donald Trump? Is there a worst monster coming? Or can
we renew the American experiment? Can we renew the American democracy?
Speaker 1 (09:48):
What do you mean he'll be stopped? So you don't think,
first of all, how did he get the Republican nomination?
And you don't think he becomes president.
Speaker 3 (09:54):
Well, he definitely doesn't become president. No, he doesn't have
a he doesn't have the I have the look at
the data carefully. And you have to remember in the
United States you have something called the Bradley effect. And
so Mayor Tom Bradley, the first African American mayor in
our history, when he was running for real election, when
the pollsters called they so you're voting for Mayor Bradley,
(10:15):
people said yes. It was a nine point spread between
the poll and the actual election. Bradley lost the election,
and the people said they didn't want to appear racist
to the person on the phone. They didn't want to
vote for Bradley because I didn't think he was competent
at his job, had nothing to do with his skin color.
And so what's happening right now with Trump is that
there's more media exposure for him relative to Biden, and
(10:39):
there's people that actually like what's going on at the border.
They're going to vote for Joe Biden, but they're telling
people that they don't like what's going on at the border.
And the other big issue for Donald Trump is that
they're going to run the replay film of his full
on insanity, the craziness of the insurrection, the insanity around
the COVID nineteen situation.
Speaker 1 (11:01):
But how did you see what I'm saying I do?
But then how did he get the nomination?
Speaker 3 (11:05):
You got the nomination because he's got an ardent support
base of twenty percent of the American population that feel
left out. And this is another problem with the United States,
is another problem with the UK. Our political established and
primarily baby boomers have failed these countries. Okay, specifically talking
(11:27):
about the United States, the baby boomers are indulgent, they're selfish,
they got passed up Aton from the greatest generation of
a vanquished fascist fascism in Europe and architecture that rebuilt
the world for peace and prosperity, led by the UK,
the United States, and the family of liberal Western democracies.
(11:51):
And so we've grown tired of it. That happens in history.
If you study Barbara Tuckman's books The Guns of August
as an example, we when we lose our time memory
we're eighty years out from the D Day invasion now,
and when we lose our wartime memory or living memory,
we have a tendency to glorify war and we increase
(12:11):
our propensity towards nationalism. So that's happening right now, and
rather than going back to the principles that got us
to where we are, our politicians become more tribal, that
become more insular. It's also being helped by the former
Soviet Union through their server farms. They're pushing a lot
(12:32):
of this narrative into the Internet. It's a lot of
garbage that's showing up on social media that references all
of this, and Trump plays right into that.
Speaker 5 (12:41):
Can I push you a bit on the Bradley effect
because surely you could the opposite conclusion from the Bradley effect.
We have people in this country called shy conservatives. The
number of people actually vote Conservative is generally bigger than
the number of people who say they will, because people
don't want to be associated with this slightly disreputable party
in their mind. Isn't the same think true?
Speaker 3 (13:00):
If Trump?
Speaker 5 (13:01):
A lot of people will say they're not going to
vote for Trump, who actually when they go into the
ballot box say they unleashed that in the Trump I.
Speaker 3 (13:06):
Would say that was true in twenty sixteen, It was
not true in twenty twenty. I don't believe it's the
case in twenty twenty four. And so what you're saying
was a twenty sixteen phenomenon. But in twenty twenty four,
he's a known entity. He is does he has very
high negatives. Nobody's won the presidency with this high of
(13:30):
a negative. He has not won a plurality of Americans.
He's never had a higher approval rating above fifty percent
at any time that he was in the presidency. But
I'm telling you, the American people are going to choose
older and mildly forget fall to fall on INCENTI.
Speaker 5 (13:48):
So surely a lot depends on whether Biden makes mistakes.
Speaker 1 (13:52):
Yeah, and people go and vote.
Speaker 5 (13:53):
Actually is if Biden makes a few crucial mistakes.
Speaker 2 (13:56):
You know, I love you.
Speaker 3 (13:58):
I mean I'm gonna push can I put it? I
pushed back on you too, because I love you, guys, Okay,
because you you know, this is like the Davos set.
We were in Davos together, right, and so I've been
going to Davos for seventeen years. Davos is always wrong.
In two thousand and seven, they told us that the
trees were going to grow to the sky and we
had solved all of our monetary policy problems. In two
(14:20):
thousand and nine, in January, they said that the world
was going to open and we're all falling into the earth.
We're going to go to the worst depression since the
nineteen twenties. We had the greatest bull market run in history.
Twenty sixteen, Davos said Hillary Clinton's going to be president.
There's no reason to have the election twenty twenty With
absolute certainty Trump was going to win the election. Now
(14:43):
in twenty twenty four, Trump is going to win the election.
He's just not going to win.
Speaker 1 (14:49):
But I do think they're not going to win.
Speaker 5 (14:51):
I'm sorry, especially on the econoce your enemy.
Speaker 1 (14:54):
In Davos, Jamie Diamond JP Morgan went on a rival
channel and he said, let's just take a step back.
He's kind of right about NATO, he's kind of right
about immigration. He grew the economy quite well. Is this
economy going to let Joe Biden down?
Speaker 3 (15:10):
So with all respect to Jamie, because I think he's
one of the smartest people that I've ever met. He's
certainly one of the smartest people in the financial services.
I have an intellectual disagreement with him on the crypto currency,
specifically bitcoin, but he's a lot smarter than me, so
I'll see economic points to him. But Trump lost twenty
(15:30):
one million jobs on his watch. He totally and completely
mishandled the COVID nineteen situation. He has no executive management skills,
and he disorganized the executive branch of the United States,
which includes nineteen cabinet and sub cabinet level agencies and
departments that were paralyzed by Donald Trump in his Twitter account.
(15:55):
And so he is the wrong guy for that job.
You want to say, because let's be objective on your podcast,
that he has points to be made on deregulation, has
points to be made on economic growth. He does have
those points. He blew the tax reform. He did nothing
(16:16):
to help the twenty percent of the people that put
him back in the nomination, his ardent supporters, he has
done nothing for He's an avatar for their anger. He
represents an orange wrecking ball into the establishment to smash
the establishment.
Speaker 1 (16:32):
Me that because if you think, even if he's done
nothing for you, if you think that there's one person
that fights for you, you're going to get him reelected.
Speaker 3 (16:40):
It's not. He's not fighting for them as much as
he's striking a match to the establishment. So he's done
nothing for them. Joe Biden, through his legislative accomplishments in
the last three years, has done way more for those people.
But he's a very poor messenger because he's rail the
(17:00):
people that voted for Lyndon Johnson or Jack Kennedy, you know,
their grandparents or their great grandparents of votered for Franklin Roosevelt.
Many of those people that are aligned with Trump now
because the Democrats seeded those people. The establishment. Democrats said
we're going to focus on transgender bathrooms pronoun usage DEI
(17:20):
that's going to be our champion. In this generation. The
white lower middle class and the working class have been
leftist enfranchised by both parties. Like or dislike Donald Trump.
He saw that he went into those communities. I win
into those communities with them seventy one campaign stops with
him on the Trump plane. I saw the blight in
(17:42):
those communities. I grew up with those people. And again,
this doesn't reflect well on me, but this is my
cognitive bias because I've hung out in the salons of
the wealthy, and I hung out at Davos, and I
went to work at Goldman and I went to Harvard
Law School. These people don't think like the blue collar
people like grew up with. And so when I arrived
(18:02):
on the Trump campaign in twenty sixteen and I was
in New Mexico and somebody, a blue collar worker looked
at me and said, oh, you think you're in New Mexico.
New New Mexico. That would be Mexico because that's where
the factory that I was working in my dad was
working and moved to. So this is no longer New Mexico.
And those people who Trump is a nothing for they'll
(18:27):
vote for him anyway, because he wants to wreck the establishment.
He wants to destroy the system, and they don't like
the system because the system hasn't worked for them.
Speaker 5 (18:35):
How did the liberal astablishment get things so wrong? How
did it create so much I think just often justified
animosity against it.
Speaker 3 (18:42):
So complacency. They got very complacent. They took for granted
the votes. Hillary Clinton looked at Wisconsin and said those
are primarily union workers and blue collar people. She did
not show up in Wisconsin. Trump went seven times to
Wisconsin after the Republican convention. So his men messaging he's
a look, he sucked as president, let's just be honest,
(19:04):
and he sucks for the world order, and he sucks
for peace and global prosperity. But he's a wonderful communicator
and he's got tireless energy, and he resonates with a
very large group of people that feel left out of
the system.
Speaker 5 (19:19):
Do you think the liberal astablishment has learned anything from
what happened in twenty sixteen?
Speaker 3 (19:24):
Joe Biden has Joe Biden put legislation in place for reshoring.
He put the Chips Act in place, He passed an
infrastructure built.
Speaker 1 (19:35):
I don't want to talk a bit about the UK.
But if Donald Trump goes bankrupt, does that make a
difference to the American psyche and the run up to
the election.
Speaker 3 (19:43):
So not to his core base. They'll vote from no
matter what bankrupt in jail. He could be campaigning with
an orange suit on a zoom call from a jail cell.
They're still going to vote for him. Okay, they've decided
they're in that cult. They've decided he can do absolutely
no wrong. But the people that matter are the independence,
(20:06):
the suburban women are going to drive the selection of
it again. You know, if you've got two movies that
are playing in the United States in twenty twenty four,
Weekend at Bernie's and One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest,
I'm going weekend at Bernie's. I'll take one guy who's
got one foot on a banana peel the other one
in the casket over a guy that needs a lobotomy,
(20:27):
that's certifiably crazy, that wants to demolish the post World
War two architecture, wants to destroy the institutions of the
American democracy.
Speaker 5 (20:38):
You've painted a pretty depressing picture of the choice that
America faces in the next selection.
Speaker 3 (20:45):
I'm painting an accurate picture.
Speaker 5 (20:48):
Suppressing it's contradictory things. But how did you get into
this position as a country is the most important country.
Speaker 2 (20:53):
In the world.
Speaker 3 (20:55):
So the answer to that, there's a couple of things
that happened. One of them is Citizens United. One of
them is Ross Perot. Ross Perot actually caused this. He
didn't realize it at the time, but he scared the
daylights out of the oligarchic duopoly known as the Demo Publicans. Okay,
so they had a duopoly going quite strongly. Pero entered
(21:18):
the race, got nineteen point nine percent of the vote.
Freaked them out. So they strengthened their duopoly by going
into the state and local governments and tightening the restrictions
on having a third party enter a race. You know,
you've got to get thousands and thousands of petitions, you
have to follow this uh weird labyrinith of laws and
(21:39):
procedures to get on the ballot. And they did all
of this to strengthen the duopoly. They then ceded to
each other's jerry mandering. And so for your UK listeners,
that basically means these local governments, the state and local
and the governors can look at the map and they
can reconfigure the Congress district. So when I was growing
(22:01):
up as a kid, these districts look like geometric shapes
that you could recognize from ninth grade geometry. They now
look like jigsaw puzzles pursuant to whose house is ware
and they try to carve out they try to carve
out their enemies. So the US actually needs a constitutional
amendment on that. And so you're asking, so I want
(22:22):
to keep going because I want to explain this to
the people you have citizens United There was a very
famous case in the United States called Plessy versus Ferguson.
This case had to do with racial segregation. The court
ruled that you could have separate but equal facilities in
the United States, and this doomed any potential for the
(22:43):
integration of the races in the America. This was an
unmitigated disaster for the country. It was reversed by Brown
versus the Board of Education. This has been a disaster
for the United States. And so Justice Scalia wrote the opinion.
What did he say, if you have unlimited amounts of money,
it's your first Amendment right to use that money in
(23:04):
the political process. You can set up a pack and
you can spend unlimited amounts of money, and they accidentally
created a separate but equal democracy. And so now go
look at the legislative accomplishments of that Congress, which is
primarily a failed system now because they get nothing done.
But when they do get something done, it's corporate welfare,
(23:25):
it's skleptocracy. It's a big pharma, big food. Put fertilizer
in the cheerios. No problem. I'm going to get re
elected if we do that. And you have this caribdis
of nonsense is taking place inside the United States as
a result of all this money flowing into the system.
So that core case has to be reversed or there
(23:48):
needs to be a constitutional amendment to make the democracy
farer again, because it's a two tiered system now. So
that's how we got there. Fourteen percent approval rating for
the Congress at a ninety four percent reelection rate for
an incumbent. So what other group of people could have
a one out of five consumer rating and not care
(24:11):
about it. It's these people because they rig the system
and the politicians are picking the voters through jerry mandering
as opposed to the voters picking the politician. The United
States is being victimized right now by not having the
DNA to understand fascism. Everybody here in Europe understands it
because they have legacy from their families. The Americans missed it,
(24:35):
so we have no memory of fascism, a result of
which we glorify at least a group of US do
people like Donald Trump. Here in Europe, they look at
it and say, well, wait a minute, my grandfather died
because of this, or my uncle died, and they worry
about fascists.
Speaker 5 (24:52):
The rights in Europe is gathering strength.
Speaker 3 (24:56):
So the right in Europe is gathering strength because the
war time memories are fading and a result of which
the educational system is not pressing the people hard enough
to understand the horror of what that represents. And so
we don't have that in the US, and so we
need that Bitcoin.
Speaker 1 (25:17):
You were an early adopter.
Speaker 3 (25:18):
I wish that. You're very flattering. I wish I was
an early adopter. I actually am an early adopter for
an old man who grew up in traditional finance, so
I was four years I had a black rock. But
I'm not an early adopter.
Speaker 1 (25:30):
The early adopter for a pre long time.
Speaker 3 (25:33):
I have, yeah, and I took a lot of bullets
and was involved in the FDx fiasco which cost me
a lot. But I believe long term in the technical
properties of bitcoin, and I believe that the network effect
bitcoin will be incredibly valuable, and bitcoin will emerge as
(25:54):
a digital store of value. And it may not be
for my generation, it will certainly be for my children
that are thirty years younger than me. And you know,
and the good news is people like Larry Fink, who
when I first met with him, he hated bitcoin, but
now he's been orange pilled by the bitcoiners and he
has the largest, most successful ETF in his history in
(26:18):
black Rock's history as a result of waiting into the
pool with us. So so you know, bitcoin is here
to stay, and you know it will trade in my opinion,
to the market capitalization of gold over the next decade.
Speaker 1 (26:33):
I was going to ask about gold because there's something
funny in the markets, right Gold up? Bitcoin? Op that's
a little bit counterintuitive, Like what's going on in markets?
Speaker 3 (26:41):
I don't I don't think so. I think what's going
on in marc is is that there's been a massive
production and massive proliferation of fiat currency. What's going on
in Marcus is a massive debt laden society now and
people are trying to figure out, well, is that sustainable.
It may be sustainable for the next decade, but it
is sustainable for a century. Doesn't seem like it would
(27:04):
be a result of which where can I put my money?
Where I can store value and I can protect the money.
So both of those places one is five thousand year
old history of storing value in and the other one
is a newer technology, and so I think that there's
a marketplace for both of those things. And so it
(27:25):
doesn't not make sense to me. You know that three
four five percent in each of those while we're going
through this. But remember you're operating in the United States
now with six percent of the GDP is going to
deficit spending. So you have to just think about how
remarkable that is. And you have to look at the
scale of the percentage of the national debt to the
(27:48):
overall GDP of the country. It's now through World War
two levels, but right now we're not fighting World War two,
and so you have to ask yourself, what are we doing?
What are we doing? We're over promising and we're under delivering.
And just for all your viewers and listeners, listen up.
Deficit spending is unfunded tax liability. Okay, someone's gonna pay it. Okay,
(28:12):
maybe it won't be you, but it'll be your grandchildren.
And how will they pay it. Well, they'll depreciate the
Fiat currency, they'll monetize the debt. They'll pay back the
debt with dollars that are worth less than the ones
that they borrowed, and that will crush living standards for
the lower and middle class. And these are the people
that will show up at a Bernie Sanders rally where
(28:33):
Donald Trump rally because they're upset about it. They don't
like the fact that you're stealing their time and energy.
Speaker 5 (28:39):
Come, how come this deficit spending is not an issue
in the election. It's pretty extraordinary.
Speaker 3 (28:46):
Well, it's a it's not an issue because the people
that vote are older, and the people that vote that
are older they want those benefits. Donald Trump's not stupid,
Joe Biden, and both Donald Trump and Joe Biden have said,
even though the absolute wrong thing to do, they're not
going to correct the issues related to entitlement obligations in
(29:07):
the United States. Older voters like that they want those benefits,
and so therefore it's not an issue. But will it
be an issue down the road if there's a fiscal
or a debt crisis for the United States. Now that
the best thing that the United States has going for
it are the other countries also the US because of
the predictability of the laws, the legal system, the flow
(29:29):
of capital, the mantle of financial services leadership, the fact
that we have the largest military, and the fact that
the most important commodity, oil is priced in US dollars
makes the dollar the global reserve currency. And so for
all of those reasons, the US should be able to
maintain its leadership if it gets the right political leaders
(29:50):
gets the right policies. But this generation of leaders has
failed the country. We all know that. The other question is, well,
the next generation where our children do better than us?
And I hope so, otherwise there'll be a big crisis.
Speaker 5 (30:03):
Can you see a next generation? Can you identify some
people who might be the leaders of the future.
Speaker 3 (30:10):
No, I can't see it off the top of my head,
but I predict that they're going to be better than us.
I predict that there'll be more data dependent they'll be
a little bit more technocratic than we were, and I
think that they'll tighten the belt where necessary. And by
the way, I mean you talk about depressing, let's talk
about something optimistic. Every one of these problems is fixable.
(30:33):
As Jack Kennedy once said, we made the problems. Man.
He said man. Could have said man and woman when
it was nineteen sixties. So he said man, and he
said man can fix the problems. Okay, so maybe men
and women can fix the problems. But we can fix
the problems. But there's nobody in the West that has
a ten or fifteen year plan to fix the problem.
(30:55):
You know, you could fix the deficit, no problem, and
take twenty five years to do it to bipartisan commitment.
But if you could explain to the American people, look, this
is what we need to do. It's not left, it's
not right. It's about right or wrong. This is the
policies that we need to put in place. If we
do this for twenty five years, we can bring the
deficit down and we sustain the economic and therefore the
(31:19):
national security of our country if we do this. But
the current political leadership doesn't want to do so.
Speaker 1 (31:25):
This is a G seven problem. The UK has a
similar problem, right.
Speaker 3 (31:29):
Yeah, well I'm speaking in an American centric gue because
I'm an American, but yes, the UK has this problem.
The French have this problem, the Germans have the problem. Yeah,
this is a problem. This is a cultural problem because
politicians need to get re elected to serve themselves more
than they want to serve the people that they're supposedly serving. Okay,
(31:53):
if this was about public service as opposed to personal power,
we would never be making the decisions the way we're the.
Speaker 1 (32:00):
And then SCAMOCHI, thank you so much for joining us.
Speaker 3 (32:03):
Okay, nice to be here. Thank you guys.
Speaker 1 (32:06):
So it was a really fun conversation and it was
a good insight into Donald Trump's psychology as a man
who was president. My main takeaway is that Scaramucci does
not think he'll be president again because he thinks the
poles are off. So he says, when pollsters call your
house in America, a lot of people say they'll vote
for Trump because it sounds patriotic, but actually they'll vote
(32:26):
for Biden, even if they're a bit.
Speaker 4 (32:27):
Of shame with the sort of secret Biden Biden lovers
lovers really working in the.
Speaker 1 (32:34):
Back I haven't heard that before. Yeah, you know, Brexit,
we had like the secret Brexit years, which is why
the polls are off. So it's an interesting dynamic that
he thinks it's this way around.
Speaker 4 (32:42):
Yeah, well, a lot more polls for us to chew
over over the coming months, not least the Bloomberg one
that we're running every month, but I think talking of
shameless plugs that we had at the beginning, another one.
I'm coming here because we are going to be starting
to make a bonus show that's going to be hitting
your feeds every week, and it is tackle This subject
is this is the year of elections all around the world.
(33:03):
It's also the year that geo politics is really crashing
into boardrooms as well, and business people are trying to
work out how to navigate all of the political turmoil
that we're going to see all around this year. So
our new podcast is called voter Nomics.
Speaker 1 (33:18):
Voteronomics.
Speaker 4 (33:19):
Voter Nomics you heard it here first and listen every
week coming soon, and we're going to be tapping into
the biggest brains in the newsroom here on geopolitics and economics,
including Stephanie Flanders, who runs Bloomberg Economics, and government all
around the world.
Speaker 1 (33:38):
Yeah, Allegra, Adrian Woolridge and yourself. It'll be fun.
Speaker 4 (33:42):
Absolutely can't wait.
Speaker 1 (33:46):
Thanks for listening to this week's in the City from Bloomberg.
This episode was hosted by me Francin Laqua with David
Merriage and featuring opinion calumnist Adrian Woolridge. It was produced
by Samrosari, additional editing by Rishie bou Jaykle. Brendan Newman
is our executive producer. Sage Bauman is Head of Podcasts
and Special thanks to Anthony's Garamucci. Please subscribe, review rate
(34:06):
wherever you listen to podcasts.
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
Hey listeners, Maren thumset web here. Hope you're enjoying your
spring break. As I mentioned on our last episode, I
am also on Easter holidays. The next new episode of
Maren Talk's Money will be available on the twelfth of April.
In the meantime, I thought i'd introduce you to another
podcast here at Bloomberg. In This City is hosted by
my colleagues Francine Lacuid, David Merritt and alegra Stratton, and
(00:28):
every week they have really interesting conversations with either key
voices in finance and business or with Bloomberg reporters on
the stories driving the conversations in London and other power
centers across the world. I think you'll enjoy it, and
if you do, be sure to subscribe wherever you listen
to your podcasts.
Speaker 1 (00:46):
There were some memorable characters in Donald Trump's administration during
his presidency, but the most memorable, arguably was probably Trump's
former communications director Anthony S. Kermucci. Now the Mooch, as
he's known, was in the role for eleven days and
if you dare say ten, he'll quickly correct you and
He's got a lot of thoughts about what might happen
to America and the world if Trump gets another go
(01:09):
in the White House.
Speaker 3 (01:10):
Now.
Speaker 1 (01:10):
I saw Anthony at an event at Bloomberg House in Davos,
and he was actually in a corner with fifteen people
laughing around him because he really brings some of these
stories alive. He's pretty dramatic, and in Davos everyone was
trying to figure out what a Trump two point zero
in the White House would mean and whether he would
get it. So I thought it made sense to get
someone who was alongside Trump during the campaign and with
(01:32):
him for a part of the ride in the White
House into our studio here in London. So this week
of conversation with Anthony Scaramucci about whether a Trump presidency
would be more right wing, how dangerous he would be,
or how beneficial he would be for financial services, and
why he's such a believer in bitcoin. Welcome to in
the City from Bloomberg's offices in the heart of the
(01:55):
Square Mile. This is our weekly podcast about the stories
driving the conversations of policymakers, howard brokers and finine seers
in the power centers the world over.
Speaker 4 (02:06):
I'm Francin Laqua and I'm David Merritt.
Speaker 1 (02:09):
And like you're actually sitting this one out, Dave.
Speaker 4 (02:10):
Yes, here in spirit, if not embody always.
Speaker 1 (02:13):
Now I'm really excited, Dave about this week's interview with
Anthony Sciamucci, which we actually did with the friend of
the show, our opinion columnist Adrian Woolridge.
Speaker 4 (02:21):
Yes, it just feels incredibly timely to speak to somebody
with such firsthand knowledge of Trump, how he operates, and
he had a ringside seat first time round, to think
about what might happen if he gets back in the
White House. It is when you mentioned it was on
everyone's mind that Davos Francine, I mean, I'm going to
be back in America next week. It is certainly on
(02:43):
everyone's mind that the elections not till November, but it's
going to be upon us for we know it.
Speaker 1 (02:49):
Yeah, And Anthony Skiramucci has this unique inside because he
was really a Trump lover, right, he backed Trump, he
went to work for Trump, and now that he's like
one of the fiercest critics of Donald Trump.
Speaker 4 (02:59):
That is the amazing thing, isn't it The swing of
opinion here from lover to hater and you know, we
are tracking closely, of course, across America a public opinion
about Donald Trump, who, as we all know, is very divisive.
We've got a pole that we're running every month. It's
in the seven what they call the Purple States, the
(03:20):
swing states. That did you see the one that was
out this week, Francine. This was a particularly interesting one
because it showed for the first time a bit of
a bump for Biden, attributed maybe to some of his
perceived success at the State of the Union address, but
he is narrowing the gap in those crucial states. Now
are people clutching at straws here to think? Is there
some hope for Biden because he's still behind in lots
(03:43):
of these places, or is this the start of a
new trend.
Speaker 1 (03:47):
It's interesting because Anthony scom which he doesn't think Trump
will get in, although he's much better organized, so he's
a better campaigner, he says, And if he does get
in in the White House, he'll know what to do,
so he could be potentially more dangerous for US democracy,
Ascriamucci says, and for the rest of the world.
Speaker 4 (04:03):
You know, but this is one of the things, isn't
it that we all remember, or maybe we've sort of
collectively forgotten a bit back in twenty sixteen. No one
thought Trump was going to win then, and you know,
sort of here we are again at this point where
the media commentators, even people who were at the ringside seat,
are saying, no, it's not possible, it's not going to happen.
So I'll be visiting the Washington Bureau next week and
(04:26):
I definitely get the sense from everybody there that you know,
November is going to be a upon us before we
know it, and this is a rematch. It's looking pretty
certain between Biden and Trump, so everyone is dusting themselves
off for that and acknowledging. You know, covering Trump administration
last time around was exhausting. You never knew what was
going to happen when you woke up every day. So
everyone is bracing for more of that. But you know,
(04:49):
we're Our coverage out of DC, of course, will be spectacular.
We've got our Washington newsletter, We've got a podcast every week,
We've got our daily news show. So check it all
out on bloomboag dot com.
Speaker 1 (05:01):
Good plug, nice shameless plug, Dave. But we do we're
pretty on top of it. Here's our conversation with the
former White House Communications director Anthony Scaramucci. Adrian, how excited
are you by having Anthony scirmuch? I'm excited. I'm excittionally
excited because for the next hour.
Speaker 3 (05:17):
We will get you everywhere with me.
Speaker 1 (05:18):
Because for the next hour we'll listen to two stories
of what it was like working for eleven days with
Donald Trump, his prediction the US economy, and we'll talk
a little bit about the markets too. Thank you for
joining us.
Speaker 3 (05:29):
It's it's awesome to be here.
Speaker 1 (05:31):
Do you ever get tired of talking about your time
in the White House?
Speaker 3 (05:35):
You know? I mean, if I'm asked about it, I'll
talk about it. You know. I like talking about it
with kids because it was such an epic fail and
getting fired like that was a It was the appearance
of a catastrophe, and I think it's a good thing
to talk to kids about where you can have missteps
in your life or a step on a land mine,
but you can survive it and what you need to
(05:58):
do to pull yourself back together. So I don't really
mind talking about it. I think the issue for me,
which I don't like because it's a really poor reflection
on me is why did I actually go work for
Trump in the first place. I think that is a
poor reflection on me, and it speaks to perhaps a
weakness and character. It speaks to ego, and it speaks
(06:20):
to pride, because ultimately that was a prideful decision. It's
a cautionary tale about putting your ego and your pride
into your decision making.
Speaker 1 (06:30):
So you didn't do it to serve the country. You
wanted to be in the White House.
Speaker 3 (06:33):
No, I certainly did it to serve the country. But
you have to understand you have a round peg in
a square hole. Okay. I worked as a wall streeter
for thirty years. I went to a couple of good schools.
I grew up in a blue collar neighborhood. Now I
can serve the American president. But the American president's crazy,
and so people that had their pride out of the equation,
(06:56):
like my very good friend Vinnie Viola. I don't know
if you would recognize that name, but he ran virt
to as the president of the merk He was named
by Donald Trump to be the Secretary of the Army.
For two hour meetings with Trump, he withdrew himself from
the position, and when I asked him why he did it,
he said, you know, after spending more time with mister Trump,
(07:17):
I realized I really couldn't work for him. He didn't
have the right executive management skills, highly insecure person, he's
not able to share credit. Or resulted with withdrawing myself
in the position. And he too, was an army veteran,
went to you know, West Point, served the country, wanted
to be the Secretary of the Army, but he felt
(07:38):
it was incongruous with Trump's personality. I wasn't brave enough
to make that statement. I was smart enough, but my
ego is in the way.
Speaker 5 (07:46):
Do you think Trump has deteriorated over the years. Do
you think he'd be worse next time round than he
was last time?
Speaker 3 (07:53):
Well, he'll be significantly worse, but not because he's deteriorated.
I think everybody deteriorates over time. He's to be seventy
eight years old, so he's a little slower. But that's
not the issue for Trump. The issue for Trump is
that he's now experienced, he's now been in the White House.
He's lost the White House. If he gets the job again,
he'll be very, very dangerous. In that job. And he's
(08:15):
also got some very experienced campaign people with him now
that believe in the expansion of unitary executive power, and
this is very, very dangerous for the society.
Speaker 5 (08:25):
Can you say a little bit more about the sort
of people he's got around him, because it seems to
me that they're different from last time. Last time had
a lot of Republican establishment, a lot of moderates, a
lot of people who didn't quite know what they were
getting themselves in. For this time, it seems to be
true believers.
Speaker 1 (08:39):
Is that right?
Speaker 3 (08:40):
I would say that that's right. A little bit of
a contrarian on this, because I really know the beast
of Donald Trump. He's such a name dropper, Adriana, it's
such a status state seeker that those people won't rise
in the cabinet. He's got them in the campaign now.
They're very discipline. I'll probably try to bring Manifort back
because Manafort has back channels at the foreign money. So
(09:02):
those people are loyalists to Trump, but also the idea
of massive expansion of executive power, and this is actually
a Dick Cheney concept. So this is like a Frankenstein
monster that was unleashed by Cheney in the early part
of the two thousands, perpetrated by him and George W. Bush.
(09:26):
And now it's become this Frankenstein golam of Donald Trump.
And so this is something that we have to stop immediately.
And then you have to ask yourself. Once Trumps stopped,
which I predict he will be stopped, what comes after
Donald Trump? Is there a worst monster coming? Or can
we renew the American experiment? Can we renew the American democracy?
Speaker 1 (09:48):
What do you mean he'll be stopped? So you don't think,
first of all, how did he get the Republican nomination?
And you don't think he becomes president.
Speaker 3 (09:54):
Well, he definitely doesn't become president. No, he doesn't have
a he doesn't have the I have the look at
the data carefully. And you have to remember in the
United States you have something called the Bradley effect. And
so Mayor Tom Bradley, the first African American mayor in
our history, when he was running for real election, when
the pollsters called they so you're voting for Mayor Bradley,
(10:15):
people said yes. It was a nine point spread between
the poll and the actual election. Bradley lost the election,
and the people said they didn't want to appear racist
to the person on the phone. They didn't want to
vote for Bradley because I didn't think he was competent
at his job, had nothing to do with his skin color.
And so what's happening right now with Trump is that
there's more media exposure for him relative to Biden, and
(10:39):
there's people that actually like what's going on at the border.
They're going to vote for Joe Biden, but they're telling
people that they don't like what's going on at the border.
And the other big issue for Donald Trump is that
they're going to run the replay film of his full
on insanity, the craziness of the insurrection, the insanity around
the COVID nineteen situation.
Speaker 1 (11:01):
But how did you see what I'm saying I do?
But then how did he get the nomination?
Speaker 3 (11:05):
You got the nomination because he's got an ardent support
base of twenty percent of the American population that feel
left out. And this is another problem with the United States,
is another problem with the UK. Our political established and
primarily baby boomers have failed these countries. Okay, specifically talking
(11:27):
about the United States, the baby boomers are indulgent, they're selfish,
they got passed up Aton from the greatest generation of
a vanquished fascist fascism in Europe and architecture that rebuilt
the world for peace and prosperity, led by the UK,
the United States, and the family of liberal Western democracies.
(11:51):
And so we've grown tired of it. That happens in history.
If you study Barbara Tuckman's books The Guns of August
as an example, we when we lose our time memory
we're eighty years out from the D Day invasion now,
and when we lose our wartime memory or living memory,
we have a tendency to glorify war and we increase
(12:11):
our propensity towards nationalism. So that's happening right now, and
rather than going back to the principles that got us
to where we are, our politicians become more tribal, that
become more insular. It's also being helped by the former
Soviet Union through their server farms. They're pushing a lot
(12:32):
of this narrative into the Internet. It's a lot of
garbage that's showing up on social media that references all
of this, and Trump plays right into that.
Speaker 5 (12:41):
Can I push you a bit on the Bradley effect
because surely you could the opposite conclusion from the Bradley effect.
We have people in this country called shy conservatives. The
number of people actually vote Conservative is generally bigger than
the number of people who say they will, because people
don't want to be associated with this slightly disreputable party
in their mind. Isn't the same think true?
Speaker 3 (13:00):
If Trump?
Speaker 5 (13:01):
A lot of people will say they're not going to
vote for Trump, who actually when they go into the
ballot box say they unleashed that in the Trump I.
Speaker 3 (13:06):
Would say that was true in twenty sixteen, It was
not true in twenty twenty. I don't believe it's the
case in twenty twenty four. And so what you're saying
was a twenty sixteen phenomenon. But in twenty twenty four,
he's a known entity. He is does he has very
high negatives. Nobody's won the presidency with this high of
(13:30):
a negative. He has not won a plurality of Americans.
He's never had a higher approval rating above fifty percent
at any time that he was in the presidency. But
I'm telling you, the American people are going to choose
older and mildly forget fall to fall on INCENTI.
Speaker 5 (13:48):
So surely a lot depends on whether Biden makes mistakes.
Speaker 1 (13:52):
Yeah, and people go and vote.
Speaker 5 (13:53):
Actually is if Biden makes a few crucial mistakes.
Speaker 2 (13:56):
You know, I love you.
Speaker 3 (13:58):
I mean I'm gonna push can I put it? I
pushed back on you too, because I love you, guys, Okay,
because you you know, this is like the Davos set.
We were in Davos together, right, and so I've been
going to Davos for seventeen years. Davos is always wrong.
In two thousand and seven, they told us that the
trees were going to grow to the sky and we
had solved all of our monetary policy problems. In two
(14:20):
thousand and nine, in January, they said that the world
was going to open and we're all falling into the earth.
We're going to go to the worst depression since the
nineteen twenties. We had the greatest bull market run in history.
Twenty sixteen, Davos said Hillary Clinton's going to be president.
There's no reason to have the election twenty twenty With
absolute certainty Trump was going to win the election. Now
(14:43):
in twenty twenty four, Trump is going to win the election.
He's just not going to win.
Speaker 1 (14:49):
But I do think they're not going to win.
Speaker 5 (14:51):
I'm sorry, especially on the econoce your enemy.
Speaker 1 (14:54):
In Davos, Jamie Diamond JP Morgan went on a rival
channel and he said, let's just take a step back.
He's kind of right about NATO, he's kind of right
about immigration. He grew the economy quite well. Is this
economy going to let Joe Biden down?
Speaker 3 (15:10):
So with all respect to Jamie, because I think he's
one of the smartest people that I've ever met. He's
certainly one of the smartest people in the financial services.
I have an intellectual disagreement with him on the crypto currency,
specifically bitcoin, but he's a lot smarter than me, so
I'll see economic points to him. But Trump lost twenty
(15:30):
one million jobs on his watch. He totally and completely
mishandled the COVID nineteen situation. He has no executive management skills,
and he disorganized the executive branch of the United States,
which includes nineteen cabinet and sub cabinet level agencies and
departments that were paralyzed by Donald Trump in his Twitter account.
(15:55):
And so he is the wrong guy for that job.
You want to say, because let's be objective on your podcast,
that he has points to be made on deregulation, has
points to be made on economic growth. He does have
those points. He blew the tax reform. He did nothing
(16:16):
to help the twenty percent of the people that put
him back in the nomination, his ardent supporters, he has
done nothing for He's an avatar for their anger. He
represents an orange wrecking ball into the establishment to smash
the establishment.
Speaker 1 (16:32):
Me that because if you think, even if he's done
nothing for you, if you think that there's one person
that fights for you, you're going to get him reelected.
Speaker 3 (16:40):
It's not. He's not fighting for them as much as
he's striking a match to the establishment. So he's done
nothing for them. Joe Biden, through his legislative accomplishments in
the last three years, has done way more for those people.
But he's a very poor messenger because he's rail the
(17:00):
people that voted for Lyndon Johnson or Jack Kennedy, you know,
their grandparents or their great grandparents of votered for Franklin Roosevelt.
Many of those people that are aligned with Trump now
because the Democrats seeded those people. The establishment. Democrats said
we're going to focus on transgender bathrooms pronoun usage DEI
(17:20):
that's going to be our champion. In this generation. The
white lower middle class and the working class have been
leftist enfranchised by both parties. Like or dislike Donald Trump.
He saw that he went into those communities. I win
into those communities with them seventy one campaign stops with
him on the Trump plane. I saw the blight in
(17:42):
those communities. I grew up with those people. And again,
this doesn't reflect well on me, but this is my
cognitive bias because I've hung out in the salons of
the wealthy, and I hung out at Davos, and I
went to work at Goldman and I went to Harvard
Law School. These people don't think like the blue collar
people like grew up with. And so when I arrived
(18:02):
on the Trump campaign in twenty sixteen and I was
in New Mexico and somebody, a blue collar worker looked
at me and said, oh, you think you're in New Mexico.
New New Mexico. That would be Mexico because that's where
the factory that I was working in my dad was
working and moved to. So this is no longer New Mexico.
And those people who Trump is a nothing for they'll
(18:27):
vote for him anyway, because he wants to wreck the establishment.
He wants to destroy the system, and they don't like
the system because the system hasn't worked for them.
Speaker 5 (18:35):
How did the liberal astablishment get things so wrong? How
did it create so much I think just often justified
animosity against it.
Speaker 3 (18:42):
So complacency. They got very complacent. They took for granted
the votes. Hillary Clinton looked at Wisconsin and said those
are primarily union workers and blue collar people. She did
not show up in Wisconsin. Trump went seven times to
Wisconsin after the Republican convention. So his men messaging he's
a look, he sucked as president, let's just be honest,
(19:04):
and he sucks for the world order, and he sucks
for peace and global prosperity. But he's a wonderful communicator
and he's got tireless energy, and he resonates with a
very large group of people that feel left out of
the system.
Speaker 5 (19:19):
Do you think the liberal astablishment has learned anything from
what happened in twenty sixteen?
Speaker 3 (19:24):
Joe Biden has Joe Biden put legislation in place for reshoring.
He put the Chips Act in place, He passed an
infrastructure built.
Speaker 1 (19:35):
I don't want to talk a bit about the UK.
But if Donald Trump goes bankrupt, does that make a
difference to the American psyche and the run up to
the election.
Speaker 3 (19:43):
So not to his core base. They'll vote from no
matter what bankrupt in jail. He could be campaigning with
an orange suit on a zoom call from a jail cell.
They're still going to vote for him. Okay, they've decided
they're in that cult. They've decided he can do absolutely
no wrong. But the people that matter are the independence,
(20:06):
the suburban women are going to drive the selection of
it again. You know, if you've got two movies that
are playing in the United States in twenty twenty four,
Weekend at Bernie's and One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest,
I'm going weekend at Bernie's. I'll take one guy who's
got one foot on a banana peel the other one
in the casket over a guy that needs a lobotomy,
(20:27):
that's certifiably crazy, that wants to demolish the post World
War two architecture, wants to destroy the institutions of the
American democracy.
Speaker 5 (20:38):
You've painted a pretty depressing picture of the choice that
America faces in the next selection.
Speaker 3 (20:45):
I'm painting an accurate picture.
Speaker 5 (20:48):
Suppressing it's contradictory things. But how did you get into
this position as a country is the most important country.
Speaker 2 (20:53):
In the world.
Speaker 3 (20:55):
So the answer to that, there's a couple of things
that happened. One of them is Citizens United. One of
them is Ross Perot. Ross Perot actually caused this. He
didn't realize it at the time, but he scared the
daylights out of the oligarchic duopoly known as the Demo Publicans. Okay,
so they had a duopoly going quite strongly. Pero entered
(21:18):
the race, got nineteen point nine percent of the vote.
Freaked them out. So they strengthened their duopoly by going
into the state and local governments and tightening the restrictions
on having a third party enter a race. You know,
you've got to get thousands and thousands of petitions, you
have to follow this uh weird labyrinith of laws and
(21:39):
procedures to get on the ballot. And they did all
of this to strengthen the duopoly. They then ceded to
each other's jerry mandering. And so for your UK listeners,
that basically means these local governments, the state and local
and the governors can look at the map and they
can reconfigure the Congress district. So when I was growing
(22:01):
up as a kid, these districts look like geometric shapes
that you could recognize from ninth grade geometry. They now
look like jigsaw puzzles pursuant to whose house is ware
and they try to carve out they try to carve
out their enemies. So the US actually needs a constitutional
amendment on that. And so you're asking, so I want
(22:22):
to keep going because I want to explain this to
the people you have citizens United There was a very
famous case in the United States called Plessy versus Ferguson.
This case had to do with racial segregation. The court
ruled that you could have separate but equal facilities in
the United States, and this doomed any potential for the
(22:43):
integration of the races in the America. This was an
unmitigated disaster for the country. It was reversed by Brown
versus the Board of Education. This has been a disaster
for the United States. And so Justice Scalia wrote the opinion.
What did he say, if you have unlimited amounts of money,
it's your first Amendment right to use that money in
(23:04):
the political process. You can set up a pack and
you can spend unlimited amounts of money, and they accidentally
created a separate but equal democracy. And so now go
look at the legislative accomplishments of that Congress, which is
primarily a failed system now because they get nothing done.
But when they do get something done, it's corporate welfare,
(23:25):
it's skleptocracy. It's a big pharma, big food. Put fertilizer
in the cheerios. No problem. I'm going to get re
elected if we do that. And you have this caribdis
of nonsense is taking place inside the United States as
a result of all this money flowing into the system.
So that core case has to be reversed or there
(23:48):
needs to be a constitutional amendment to make the democracy
farer again, because it's a two tiered system now. So
that's how we got there. Fourteen percent approval rating for
the Congress at a ninety four percent reelection rate for
an incumbent. So what other group of people could have
a one out of five consumer rating and not care
(24:11):
about it. It's these people because they rig the system
and the politicians are picking the voters through jerry mandering
as opposed to the voters picking the politician. The United
States is being victimized right now by not having the
DNA to understand fascism. Everybody here in Europe understands it
because they have legacy from their families. The Americans missed it,
(24:35):
so we have no memory of fascism, a result of
which we glorify at least a group of US do
people like Donald Trump. Here in Europe, they look at
it and say, well, wait a minute, my grandfather died
because of this, or my uncle died, and they worry
about fascists.
Speaker 5 (24:52):
The rights in Europe is gathering strength.
Speaker 3 (24:56):
So the right in Europe is gathering strength because the
war time memories are fading and a result of which
the educational system is not pressing the people hard enough
to understand the horror of what that represents. And so
we don't have that in the US, and so we
need that Bitcoin.
Speaker 1 (25:17):
You were an early adopter.
Speaker 3 (25:18):
I wish that. You're very flattering. I wish I was
an early adopter. I actually am an early adopter for
an old man who grew up in traditional finance, so
I was four years I had a black rock. But
I'm not an early adopter.
Speaker 1 (25:30):
The early adopter for a pre long time.
Speaker 3 (25:33):
I have, yeah, and I took a lot of bullets
and was involved in the FDx fiasco which cost me
a lot. But I believe long term in the technical
properties of bitcoin, and I believe that the network effect
bitcoin will be incredibly valuable, and bitcoin will emerge as
(25:54):
a digital store of value. And it may not be
for my generation, it will certainly be for my children
that are thirty years younger than me. And you know,
and the good news is people like Larry Fink, who
when I first met with him, he hated bitcoin, but
now he's been orange pilled by the bitcoiners and he
has the largest, most successful ETF in his history in
(26:18):
black Rock's history as a result of waiting into the
pool with us. So so you know, bitcoin is here
to stay, and you know it will trade in my opinion,
to the market capitalization of gold over the next decade.
Speaker 1 (26:33):
I was going to ask about gold because there's something
funny in the markets, right Gold up? Bitcoin? Op that's
a little bit counterintuitive, Like what's going on in markets?
Speaker 3 (26:41):
I don't I don't think so. I think what's going
on in marc is is that there's been a massive
production and massive proliferation of fiat currency. What's going on
in Marcus is a massive debt laden society now and
people are trying to figure out, well, is that sustainable.
It may be sustainable for the next decade, but it
is sustainable for a century. Doesn't seem like it would
(27:04):
be a result of which where can I put my money?
Where I can store value and I can protect the money.
So both of those places one is five thousand year
old history of storing value in and the other one
is a newer technology, and so I think that there's
a marketplace for both of those things. And so it
(27:25):
doesn't not make sense to me. You know that three
four five percent in each of those while we're going
through this. But remember you're operating in the United States
now with six percent of the GDP is going to
deficit spending. So you have to just think about how
remarkable that is. And you have to look at the
scale of the percentage of the national debt to the
(27:48):
overall GDP of the country. It's now through World War
two levels, but right now we're not fighting World War two,
and so you have to ask yourself, what are we doing?
What are we doing? We're over promising and we're under delivering.
And just for all your viewers and listeners, listen up.
Deficit spending is unfunded tax liability. Okay, someone's gonna pay it. Okay,
(28:12):
maybe it won't be you, but it'll be your grandchildren.
And how will they pay it. Well, they'll depreciate the
Fiat currency, they'll monetize the debt. They'll pay back the
debt with dollars that are worth less than the ones
that they borrowed, and that will crush living standards for
the lower and middle class. And these are the people
that will show up at a Bernie Sanders rally where
(28:33):
Donald Trump rally because they're upset about it. They don't
like the fact that you're stealing their time and energy.
Speaker 5 (28:39):
Come, how come this deficit spending is not an issue
in the election. It's pretty extraordinary.
Speaker 3 (28:46):
Well, it's a it's not an issue because the people
that vote are older, and the people that vote that
are older they want those benefits. Donald Trump's not stupid,
Joe Biden, and both Donald Trump and Joe Biden have said,
even though the absolute wrong thing to do, they're not
going to correct the issues related to entitlement obligations in
(29:07):
the United States. Older voters like that they want those benefits,
and so therefore it's not an issue. But will it
be an issue down the road if there's a fiscal
or a debt crisis for the United States. Now that
the best thing that the United States has going for
it are the other countries also the US because of
the predictability of the laws, the legal system, the flow
(29:29):
of capital, the mantle of financial services leadership, the fact
that we have the largest military, and the fact that
the most important commodity, oil is priced in US dollars
makes the dollar the global reserve currency. And so for
all of those reasons, the US should be able to
maintain its leadership if it gets the right political leaders
(29:50):
gets the right policies. But this generation of leaders has
failed the country. We all know that. The other question is, well,
the next generation where our children do better than us?
And I hope so, otherwise there'll be a big crisis.
Speaker 5 (30:03):
Can you see a next generation? Can you identify some
people who might be the leaders of the future.
Speaker 3 (30:10):
No, I can't see it off the top of my head,
but I predict that they're going to be better than us.
I predict that there'll be more data dependent they'll be
a little bit more technocratic than we were, and I
think that they'll tighten the belt where necessary. And by
the way, I mean you talk about depressing, let's talk
about something optimistic. Every one of these problems is fixable.
(30:33):
As Jack Kennedy once said, we made the problems. Man.
He said man. Could have said man and woman when
it was nineteen sixties. So he said man, and he
said man can fix the problems. Okay, so maybe men
and women can fix the problems. But we can fix
the problems. But there's nobody in the West that has
a ten or fifteen year plan to fix the problem.
(30:55):
You know, you could fix the deficit, no problem, and
take twenty five years to do it to bipartisan commitment.
But if you could explain to the American people, look, this
is what we need to do. It's not left, it's
not right. It's about right or wrong. This is the
policies that we need to put in place. If we
do this for twenty five years, we can bring the
deficit down and we sustain the economic and therefore the
(31:19):
national security of our country if we do this. But
the current political leadership doesn't want to do so.
Speaker 1 (31:25):
This is a G seven problem. The UK has a
similar problem, right.
Speaker 3 (31:29):
Yeah, well I'm speaking in an American centric gue because
I'm an American, but yes, the UK has this problem.
The French have this problem, the Germans have the problem. Yeah,
this is a problem. This is a cultural problem because
politicians need to get re elected to serve themselves more
than they want to serve the people that they're supposedly serving. Okay,
(31:53):
if this was about public service as opposed to personal power,
we would never be making the decisions the way we're the.
Speaker 1 (32:00):
And then SCAMOCHI, thank you so much for joining us.
Speaker 3 (32:03):
Okay, nice to be here. Thank you guys.
Speaker 1 (32:06):
So it was a really fun conversation and it was
a good insight into Donald Trump's psychology as a man
who was president. My main takeaway is that Scaramucci does
not think he'll be president again because he thinks the
poles are off. So he says, when pollsters call your
house in America, a lot of people say they'll vote
for Trump because it sounds patriotic, but actually they'll vote
(32:26):
for Biden, even if they're a bit.
Speaker 4 (32:27):
Of shame with the sort of secret Biden Biden lovers
lovers really working in the.
Speaker 1 (32:34):
Back I haven't heard that before. Yeah, you know, Brexit,
we had like the secret Brexit years, which is why
the polls are off. So it's an interesting dynamic that
he thinks it's this way around.
Speaker 4 (32:42):
Yeah, well, a lot more polls for us to chew
over over the coming months, not least the Bloomberg one
that we're running every month, but I think talking of
shameless plugs that we had at the beginning, another one.
I'm coming here because we are going to be starting
to make a bonus show that's going to be hitting
your feeds every week, and it is tackle This subject
is this is the year of elections all around the world.
(33:03):
It's also the year that geo politics is really crashing
into boardrooms as well, and business people are trying to
work out how to navigate all of the political turmoil
that we're going to see all around this year. So
our new podcast is called voter Nomics.
Speaker 1 (33:18):
Voteronomics.
Speaker 4 (33:19):
Voter Nomics you heard it here first and listen every
week coming soon, and we're going to be tapping into
the biggest brains in the newsroom here on geopolitics and economics,
including Stephanie Flanders, who runs Bloomberg Economics, and government all
around the world.
Speaker 1 (33:38):
Yeah, Allegra, Adrian Woolridge and yourself. It'll be fun.
Speaker 4 (33:42):
Absolutely can't wait.
Speaker 1 (33:46):
Thanks for listening to this week's in the City from Bloomberg.
This episode was hosted by me Francin Laqua with David
Merriage and featuring opinion calumnist Adrian Woolridge. It was produced
by Samrosari, additional editing by Rishie bou Jaykle. Brendan Newman
is our executive producer. Sage Bauman is Head of Podcasts
and Special thanks to Anthony's Garamucci. Please subscribe, review rate
(34:06):
wherever you listen to podcasts.
Host
Merryn Somerset Webb
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