August 25, 2024 • 41 mins
Newt talks with John McLaughlin and Doug Sosnik, two experienced pollsters, about recent political events: including Joe Biden's withdrawal and Kamala Harris' nomination. They also discuss the impact of the Obama team on Harris’ campaign and the potential influence of Millennials and Gen Z on future politics. The conversation further delves into the tribalism in politics, the role of education level in political alignment, and the weaponization of politics. They also discuss the role of the national media.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
On this episode of News World. When I last had
my two guests on, it was June second, and an
unbelievable amount has changed for me personally. I could never
have projected every in a whole bunch of alternative histories.
I could not have invented from June second to today.
So I want to have these two experts back just
(00:27):
to get a flavor from some really experienced guys. Two
of the most experienced and well known posters in the
Democrat and Republican parties. John McLaughlin the CEO and partner
at McLaughlin Associates, a national survey research and strategic services company.
He's worked professionally as a strategic consultant and poster for
(00:48):
over thirty five years, and he's worked as an advisor
and polster for President Donald Trump and Doug Susnik. Doug
played a key role as an advisor of President Bill
Clinton from nineteen ninety four to two thousand. Doug played
a key role in policy strategy, political and communications decisions
(01:09):
in the White House. He has advised multiple US Senators, governors,
fortune one hundred corporations, foundations, and universities for thirty five years.
(01:30):
John and Doug I want to welcome you back. Could
either of you have imagined the last seven weeks?
Speaker 2 (01:39):
Actually, it's like one of your historical novels, Like you
couldn't even thought of this plot when you think about it,
the idea of everything that's gone on. You know, when
you talk about the national polls, we published a national poll.
It's really interesting to me, is because we're going to
end up talking about polls. Is that we put out
a poll the day before the debate in June, and
(02:01):
Trump won the debate handily, and Doug sent me some
polls after it. But you think about it, he won
the debate, the Democrats are calling for his withdrawal. He
then survives in an assassin's bullet. He then has a Republican
convention where the party's totally transformed the Party of Trump.
They're united behind him. And that's Sunday after it, Joe
Biden withdraws and hand picks Kamil Harris as his successor.
(02:27):
So the poll we did the day before the debate
Trump was up to and he always argues with me,
why I'm not up more? And I'm like, it's modeled
after the twenty twenty turnout a certain amount of Democrats,
certain amount of liberals, you're never getting their votes. It's closed.
The poll we did after Kamil Harris came in at
the beginning of August, Trump's up to and like Dougsman saying,
(02:48):
you know, you gotta wait to lift the labor day
after the conventions and everything. But I'm not sure there's
that much movement in the electorate one way or the other.
Speaker 1 (02:56):
But you know, if you look at the political press,
which of course has to write something every day, and
if you're twenty four hour cable news, you have to
think up something every hour, There's been all this turmoil,
all this excitement. Biden collapses in the debate, willia or
will he not get off the ticket? Calisto walks and
have said to me, Joe Biden just Withdrew and I said,
(03:17):
this is Babylon b right. She said no. Two or
three hours later, Kamala Harris, who we all knew couldn't
possibly run, is not only running, she's got his endorsement
and she's the nominee. I've never seen anything like it
for being a roller coaster. But Doug, what's your experience
of the last six or seven weeks.
Speaker 3 (03:36):
First of all, I absolutely could never have predicted where
we be today. However, would say that at the beginning
of twenty twenty three, I thought having a Trump Biden
rematch was defined the laws of political gravity. So I
did think something was going to happen. In fact, I
wrote something at the end of twenty twenty three about
(03:58):
the race where I started talking about Linda Johnson getting out. Now,
I was probably a little too wimpy, and I was
implicitly suggesting Biden get out, but I didn't say it
out loud. But I didn't predict it, but I wanted
to just if I could build on. But john said
a minute ago, everything is different about this race than
it was.
Speaker 4 (04:16):
On the other hand, in a lot of ways, a
lot hasn't changed.
Speaker 3 (04:20):
And if you take October early November of twenty twenty
three until the debate is six seven months.
Speaker 4 (04:25):
That was a very consistent race. Trump was ahead narrowly,
but it was a durable lead both nationally and in
the battleground states. Despite the fact that you know, Biden
had a job approval in the thirties, you had almost
seventy percent of the country said we're heading the wrong direction.
We had a stable race where Biden was really prior
(04:46):
to the debate. You know, I wouldn't say it's fifty
to fifty, but he started shot it win. You've now
had with Biden's withdrawal, and Harris's sort of like a
tornado that swept through. I think she is ahead now,
but I think that owl's not the time to to
really assess where the race stands, and we can talk
about that in polling in a minute. Despite the fact
that I don't think Harris has lost this no news
(05:07):
cycle in the last month, she is like a tornado.
Having said all that, the race is close, and it's
within a couple of points, and it's the same states
that are going to determine the outcome.
Speaker 3 (05:19):
But I think that there's maybe a little bit over
exuberance on the Democratic side. If nothing else, we're coming
out of a profound period of depression when Biden goes
out of the ticket. But I think the race is
a lot closer than maybe what your rank and file
Democrat or what you're a mainstream media person is depicting
right now.
Speaker 1 (05:38):
It's almost like the country has polarized into these two tribes,
and all you need to know is who's the leader
of my tribe. I'm for him. Now tell me what
else is going on? Do you sort of sense that
the country in that sense has frozen into a tribalism
that makes thinking about winning the elections different than it
(06:01):
would have been have been around so long. I mean,
I look at examples like Reggo Carter or like George H. W.
Bush Doucaucus. I'm not sure we have the fluidity that
we had back then. The two tribes may be pretty
decisively structured, but what do you two think.
Speaker 2 (06:20):
I think you're right as we're seeing less swing voters
and less moving where all of a sudden you could
have Reagan winning with sixty percent of the vote. Doesn't
look possible now in the electric because there's an Obama
coalition that got built when he won in two thousand
and eight. That was really a new Democratic coalition where
(06:42):
it was based on a maximum turnout of minority support,
It was based on tracting Latinos, based on transitioning college
educated voters into the Democrat Party, and it was also
based on younger voters. And the Democrats have worked in
the younger voters. I mean, we used to do palling
for MTVA when Bush was President etc. Were the token Republicans.
(07:02):
But the Democrats that was the one cohort. They would
win the voters under thirty et cetera. And Bush. When
you look at his win over Kerry, it was only
fifty one to forty eight, and that's the last majority
Republican win. And there were lots of wronging polls then too.
But Trump, when he won the Republican campaign with his
positions on trade and immigration, represented a transformation in the
(07:27):
Republican campaign in opposite to the Obama coalition. So the
Trump coalition, we were going to bring out new voters
who were in the heartland of America. They were from
the rest Belt and the Sun Belt, and they were
the ones who during the eight years of Obama kind
of got hurt badly. And then after COVID and then
after Biden, Trump was attracting pieces of the Obama coalition.
(07:51):
The Biden twenty twenty voter who became a Trump twenty
four voter was a quarter black, quarter Hispanic. Average age
was thirty five, and they were still working class voters
that they were attracted to the Republican Party. That the
Republican Party has become the working class voter and In
Doug's writings, he's talked about how you have the smallest
(08:12):
share of the electorate that the white working class voter now,
but they're still significant in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. And Trump
his ability to win in twenty sixteen when he said,
how are we going to win? We los into all
these polls to Hillary Clinton. I said, you know, a
lot of voters didn't vote for Mitt Romney. They walked away.
All one hundred and thirty million voted. It was ninety
(08:33):
million voters who were eligible who didn't vote. I said,
We're going to bring out new voters, these casual Republican voters,
and they were the ones who It wasn't an Obama
voter who switched to Trump that created the two hundred
and eight Pivot counties. It was new voters coming in
that we had nine million more voters than the Romney
(08:54):
Obama fight. But then David Pluff in twenty twenty took
to a new level where the Democrat strategy was based
on not winning battleground states, battleground counties within the battleground
states where they're registered voters who would have been Hillary voters,
and then made it easier for them to vote, and
(09:15):
now he's running the Harris campaign with Axelrod's TV firm.
So the Republicans are not only up against a new candidate,
but they're up against a strategic team that has changed
American politics before.
Speaker 1 (09:31):
One of the big changes when Biden leaves is you
now do get the Obama team, which Biden wouldn't use,
and I think they're remarkably better than the team that
Biden had. Doug, what's your sense of the degree to
which polarization limits the potential swing in vote support?
Speaker 3 (09:50):
First of all, the Abama team is far better than
the Biden came in. Secondly, John has actually been seven
out of the last eight presidential elections Republicans have not
gotten the majority of the votes. And I think that
in lies one of the problems that the challenges that
Democrats have right now, which is the electoral College. And
I think it is favoring the Republicans in terms of
(10:12):
two Americas. We are in two Americas, and I think
all you have to do really is just look at
twenty minutes of the Republican convention a month ago with
the SoundOff, and just look at twenty minutes of the
Democratic convention this week without the SoundOff, and you'd think
we're in two completely different countries based on that, and
we are right now in tribes and it is frozen
(10:34):
for now. And I think the two best predicters one
is John's alluded to, which is a level of education
people have, and the Republicans are now more of a
working class party.
Speaker 4 (10:44):
For the first time.
Speaker 3 (10:45):
In the last election, white working class voters constituted less
than forty percent of the vote. However in the three
industrial Midwestern states they constitute over fifty percent of the vote.
When we were all starting in politics, Democrats better in
presidential years and Republicans and off years because occasional voters
are Democrats. Well, now occasional voters are Republican. So the
(11:07):
two best predictors, well, there's one best predictor for sure,
which is education, which John mentioned, and that's part of
I think how that is now transcending even race since
the twenty twelve Romney campaign that Trump has been doing
so much better with Hispanic voters and it really does
cut by educational levels. With the second issue, or the
second factor, which I think is going to be more
(11:28):
pronounced in this election than it has in any election,
is the gender gap which has been existing in American
politics since the nineteen eighty Raging campaign, and I think
this is going to be a historic gender gap, both
because of the nature of the Harris candidacy but also
the nature of the Trump candidacy. The last thing, I'll say,
we are frozen and we will stay frozen until this generation,
(11:50):
our generation moves off.
Speaker 4 (11:51):
The political scene.
Speaker 3 (11:52):
I do think when we have the millennials of the
gen Z's taking over our country, I think that we
will unfreeze this cultural divide that really started in the
nineteen sixties.
Speaker 1 (12:19):
When you go down to governorships in both sides, you
see people who win huge victories as governor Democrats and Republicans,
and then of course you get up to the national level,
it sort of evens out because all the states where
the Democrats win huge margins tend to be for the
Democrats in the states where the Republicans, you know the Santis'
(12:40):
margin in Florida, which when I was first in politics,
it was inconceivable that you'd have Florida as a basically
Republican state. But the changes have been that profound.
Speaker 3 (12:52):
That's all driven by how the tribalism. It's all driven
by educational level. So forty out of fifty states are
controlled by one political party, overwhelmingly controlled by one political party.
I might add forty out of fifty states. That's this tribalism,
which right now the single best predictor of where a
community falls politically is the level of education of people
(13:14):
in that community.
Speaker 1 (13:15):
Which is also a remarkable shift from say nineteen sixty
when you would have thought education meant that the Republicans
were carrying college and graduate school level and Democrats were
carrying high school and two year college level.
Speaker 3 (13:30):
It started somewhat with Clinton, but it really started in
the two thousands. John mentioned about the Obama coalition in
two thousand and eight, and there was one major component
of the Obama coalition in two thousand and eight that
has moved to Trump and the Republicans and stayed there,
and that's white working class people. So you had two
(13:51):
hundred and six counties in the United States and voted
for Obama in two thousand and eight, Obama in twenty twelve,
and voted for Trump in twenty sixteen. Two hundred and
six counties. Now in twenty twenty only twenty six of
them went to Biden and so that coalition that was
part of the Obama coalition was overwhelmingly white, non college
(14:13):
older voters in the areas of the country part is
hit by glization in trade with China. That part of
the Obama coalition is now firmly the core of the
Republican Party, which really started politically. It first showed up
an American politics. Remember, as we all know, politics is
(14:35):
a lagging indicator of what's going on in our country.
Speaker 4 (14:38):
It's not a leading indicator.
Speaker 3 (14:39):
And so the first time it showed up politically it
was in nineteen ninety two with Pat Buchanan's primary against
Bush and then the Paro candidacy where he got almost
twenty million votes.
Speaker 1 (14:49):
If you looked at the two conventions, the Republican convention
is a post revolutionary convention in terms of who's there.
President bo Brush is not there, Vice President Cheney's not there,
Vice President Pence is not there. There is really a
profound shift and who shows up at the Republican convention.
(15:11):
If you look at the Democratic Convention, the entire machines there,
I mean, nobody's missing. And I just thought it was
a very interesting comment on change in the two parties
and the whole notion that, in a sense, the establishment
intervened in twenty twenty to block Sanders, then accepted Biden,
and then they decided right after the Biden Trump debate
(15:35):
that Biden would lose, so they intervened to replace Biden.
All of this, of course in the name of democracy.
Speaker 3 (15:41):
But there are two factors there. The two factors to
that phenomena, which I agree with. The first factor is
the Republican Party has now completed a political transformation where
it's a party of Trump. So for we Democrats for
twenty five years, every four years, a convince to try
to figure out what we gonna do abou Jimmy Carter.
(16:02):
I mean, we don't want them to show up. We
can't not invite them, So you know, how do we
deal with Jimmy Carter. We've got all these pre Trump
generation of Republican politicians. Nobody wants them there, and they
don't want to be there. That's one factor what you said.
But the other factor is that this Party of Trump
right now is really I don't want to sound too partisan.
Speaker 4 (16:23):
I would have used the term cult, but that's probably
a little too edgy.
Speaker 2 (16:26):
Doug.
Speaker 1 (16:27):
On this podcast, you can use any word you want.
Speaker 3 (16:30):
The politics of personality is driving right now. The Republican
Party is a party of transformation, is now the party
of Trump. I do think the personality of Trump is
taking over a lot of the oxygen of the party.
Speaker 2 (16:43):
You got to give credit to Newt, because Newt, you know,
transformed the country. I was lucky because Bill McCollum and
Haley Barber paid for a survey in September ninety four
that I got to deliver it to the Republican House
leadership and it was in the bowels of the Capitol
with the Minority Party and Bob Michael's there. I'm delivering
(17:03):
the poll and I said, it's September of ninety four,
and I've got a poll where the generic vote has
the Republicans up seven for Congress. And I've never seen
that before in all the years. And I wasn't that
long a polster, but I worked for Finkelstein before I
went on my own. I've never seen that before, and
I'm like going to win the majority. But Newts won
that majority, and still he was part of that and
(17:26):
now he's still at the convention. When I got there,
I said, do you know the differences the country Club's
not running the party anymore. The caddies are and it's
the Republican Party with Trump transforming it. Here's this blue
collar billionaire who is not from politics, who doesn't play
(17:46):
by the rules, and he really doesn't believe in the
polls as much as his gout. Sometimes his guts wrong,
but a lot of times it's right. His ability to
identify with working class voters, who did Democrats know they
may or may not come into the process. Just before
I got on the call, I'm looking at an economist.
Poll comes out. Okay, they got Harris up three. Go
(18:08):
to the demographics and they have Republicans at twenty eight
percent of their sample and the Democrats at thirty eight.
I'm like the list exit polls were twenty twenty, thirty seven,
thirty six, twenty sixteen, thirty six, thirty three. We have
been under thirty percent of the electorate going back to
the twentieth century when you would have swings of conservative
(18:31):
Democrats into the Republican Party. But that's a bygone here.
That's the Reagan here.
Speaker 4 (18:36):
John two. Thanks.
Speaker 3 (18:37):
First of all, the undersampling by pollsters of white working
class voters has been a problem since Donald Trump first
ran and that's why there's always a surprise on election
day based on the polling because of the undersampling of
actual turnout. The other couple of things I'll say, I
(18:58):
do agree that Trump has a unique appeal to blue
collar workers. I would hardly call him a blue collar
background candidate. And the last thing I'll say, now, you
probably take this as a compliment, actually, although when I
normally have a speech and say what I'm getting to say,
it is not intended as a compliment. But we have
essentially began at the late nineteen eighties the weaponization of
(19:20):
American politics, and that's what changed. That's what's changed our politics.
It's the weaponization of everything in politics. And the two
events that I hold most responsible for that was one
that was the Democrats handling of the Boar Hearing, in
which they set a new standard in which there's no
such thing as anything sacri saying in terms of our
(19:42):
ability to politicize everything. And the other new was you're
taking over the House Republicans and winning the Congress, and
so I considered it a bipartisan group effort, and I
always frame you as one of the godfathers of that.
But not in a partisan way, but as just a
way our country in politics changed.
Speaker 1 (20:02):
I cheerfully plead guilty. If you're a minority party and
you've been in the wilderness for forty years, you had
better figure out how to be tough enough to draw
a line that will get you elected. I wrote a
whole book on this called March the Majority. If you're
the majority party, you want to blur the differences and
then you get to remain the majority party. If you're
(20:22):
an effective minority party, you want to maximize the differences,
and that way you might actually emerge. So Doug, I
think your analysis is right, and I do think Bork
and then Clarence Thomas, and from the narrow standpoint of
the House, stealing a Indiana nine in nineteen eighty four
was a seminal event which suddenly we said, if the
(20:42):
Democrats will do that, then there are no holds barred.
I'm fascinated in the cross Times. And let's tell you too,
to comment, Black males have stuck with Trump to a
much greater extent than you would have expected given the
nomination of a black nominee. But she clearly has solidified
(21:03):
black women. But my sense is she has not in
fact solidified black males. Do either of you have a
comment on that phenomenon.
Speaker 2 (21:11):
Well, I've seen by the way I've seen recent Pauli
over the weekend where in some states she hasn't quite
solidified the black women yet because they're still going to
the store paying high prices on inflation. There's still problems,
real problems that real people are facing that she doesn't
have the answer to. And what's interesting is she's part
of the elites. Symbolically, yes, she happens to be an
(21:33):
African American woman, but she's part of the elites and
black men it's even worse for them. And Biden during
his four years it was going to point a black
woman as vice president, I'm going to point a black
woman to the Supreme Court. I'm going to black men.
I don't know. They were just getting less attention and
less connection and they're dealing with real problems. And for
(21:54):
the years, and Doug's been part of these wars with
the governor's racist Georgia Allen. When he got elected governor
in ninety three, we got over twenty percent of the
black vote and Jim Gilmore, but it was on real
things about it, like we were ending parole and we
were fighting crime and no car attacks. Nathan Deal when
he got re elected governor in twenty fourteen in Georgia,
(22:16):
we had done the drug courts and the version of
the first Step back first before Trump ever did it.
And we went after or tried to appeal to African
American voters. And there was a profile. There was a
middle class black voter who felt the same alienation that
white voters feel, and they had more in common in
(22:37):
terms of yeah, sure, they're members of law enforcement, they're
members of their veterans, they want their kids to go
to a charter school. They had a demographic that you
could say didn a vote with Republicans, and you know
Nathan and Deal and then Casey Cagle and Georgia, we
got over twenty percent of the black vote. And Trump
has been connecting with African American voters who they know
(23:00):
that their real wealth has gone down, their situations not
been as good, and you've got a country where yeah,
I less national poll seventy five percent sets on the
wrong track, sixty two percent say the economy's getting worse,
fifty percent they can't afford basic necessities even though they're
icing the parties based on race and age and all
(23:23):
these other demographics. Education, there's common problems that if the
Trump campaign and the Republicans talk about the issues and
talk about the solutions, we have a real opportunity to
beat Kamala Harris. Like I agree with Doug, let's wait
till aft the Labor Day, Let's wait till the debate.
You know, they're trying to run a character race that's
more about style and vibes and run away from kind
(23:47):
of the current issues. They had Joe Biden at the
convention speak after eleven thirty. It's amazing the way that
they're trying to like, she's not the vice president, she's not.
Speaker 5 (23:57):
Responsible for any of these things. She hasn't been his
partner for three and a half years. It's like she's
sitting there at the convention. You watch her on TV
and you're like, it's unbelievable. She didn't win a single primary,
didn't win a caucus, and poor Joe see you by,
and he's not coming back to the convention and the
three and a half years in the past or his
problem and not hers.
Speaker 4 (24:18):
I do agree with John's point.
Speaker 3 (24:20):
I think what's been under reported is the fact that
since twenty twelve, after Obama was no longer on the ballot,
the support for Democrats with blacks has gone down, and
in fact, in twenty twenty, Biden ran behind Clinton the blacks.
Speaker 4 (24:37):
So there are two issues in.
Speaker 3 (24:39):
Terms of the black vote, and I do think it's
really largely confined to males and younger males in particular,
and probably non college younger males. The two issues for
Democrats one is if they're going to vote for Harris,
are they actually going to turn out and vote? And
if you look at the twenty twenty results, turn out
even in Atlanta and Fillladelphia, Detroit, these big cities, the
(25:02):
turnout was down. But secondly, Trump is running better with
these voters now than he was in twenty twenty. Now
we're probably running as well with these voters now as
he was two months ago when Biden was on the ticket,
but he still is outperforming how he did with these
voters in twenty twenty.
Speaker 1 (25:36):
I get the sense, with all of the news media effort,
yeah and all of the fluff, this is still a
real race. Back in June, we couldn't have predicted all
the different things that have happened since then. The truth
is from now to election day, a lot of things
could happen, and that it has not refrozen in a
(25:56):
definable pattern at this stage.
Speaker 2 (25:59):
Is that a fair You have a friend Brent Bozella
runs the Media Research Center. Brent just put out a
study where they covered the mainstream media networks and the
cable networks from July twenty one to August seventeenth that
eighty four percent of the coverage for Harris has been positive.
So it goes to Doug's point about her winning the
(26:19):
news cycle like every day, every hour, eighty nine percent
of the Trump coverage has been negative. And Brent did
a poll with US a week ago where he had
twelve hundred registered Democrats and independent Biden voters. Independence of
voted for Biden eight hundred Democrats, and he asked him,
(26:39):
are you aware not aware that Harris supported cutting funding
to the police seventy one percent not aware? Aware that
she never visited a conflict zone on the border as
the boarders are seventy two percent not aware. She doesn't
consider it a crime to enter the US illegally seventy
four percent not aware. Most Liberal center in twenty nineteen
in the US Senate seventy five percent not aware. To
(27:03):
support elimination of private health insurance eighty one percent not aware.
So the real campaign hasn't really started. Through the Democratic Convention,
we got this extended honeymoon. She made one press availability
where she said she wanted to have an arms of
bargo on Israel, and then they reeled that back in.
And then she did do the speech last week where
(27:25):
she talked about price controls. So I think the real
issue part of the campaign's beginning. And then I looked
at the convention last night and what happened with Trump
with the black journalists. They really want to try to
bate Trump into blowing up. They want to say, just
like Joe Biden in the debate, Joe Biden called him
a racist, mentioned the porn star, called him a convicted felon,
(27:48):
and Biden's speech, to the extent it was late at night,
was the same kind of untruce attacks on Trump. And
the one debate Harris has agreed to, I'm sure he's
going to try to get him to say something that
she can betray as racist and something that's misogynistic. So
on the intellectual level, we've got these two coalitions. We've
(28:10):
got all these issues, but on a stylistic personality level,
the Democrats, they play hardball.
Speaker 4 (28:18):
John and I are in the business, are trying to
win elections.
Speaker 3 (28:20):
We're not working for the Columbia Journalism Review that we're
not working for the Institute for the Free Press of
America and the Democrat delighted how much press Trump does.
I wish he would do a press conference every day,
And I think I would say two things about the press.
One is the mainstream press. And I said this on
a podcast the other day, and I came to Darling
(28:41):
of the right wing media, the mainstream press as a
bias for Democrats, and they hate Trump, but the main
stream press, what's more important to them than that is
covering a story and feeling like they're treated right. And
generally the candidate who has the mainstream press on their wins,
and it's not always the Democrat. I would say in
(29:03):
two thousand and four, the press at the anti carry
was a big phony, and when they didn't like Bush
and agree with him, I think they thought it was
at least the real thing. I think in twenty sixteen,
the mainstream press they bought in the Trump narrative about
Crooked Hillary and all the rest of it. And I
think they turned on Biden. They turned on Biden when
they thought that they had been misled and mistreated about
(29:26):
his actual health. So it's not an automatic that they're
going to support and be in the tank for Democrats.
Speaker 4 (29:32):
But they clearly are.
Speaker 3 (29:35):
Beside themselves with joy that Harris is running against Trump.
Speaker 1 (29:40):
I used to have a ground rule. If you're a
House Republican back in the seventies, eighties and early nineties,
you didn't get any coverage. I mean, you didn't exist
in terms of national media. Well. One of the theories that
I developed was the press is like a great white
shark that if something bleeds, they will eat it. They
(30:00):
may feel bad eating it if it's a liberal Democrat,
but they can't help themselves. When we went after Jim
Wright for ethics problems and he ultimately had to resign
as speaker, I knew the once they caught the scent,
even though they would much prefer right over me that descent,
that there was something there, they would just start chewing
(30:22):
and they couldn't back off.
Speaker 4 (30:23):
Two things about that and Day.
Speaker 3 (30:24):
First of all, what you did do long before you
took over the House in ninety four. What you did really,
for the first time since the early nineteen fifties, you
made the House Republican minority relevant. And you can't be
part of the conversation if you're not part of the conversation. So,
whether it's Jim Wright's books or whatever it is, you
(30:46):
forced your way into the conversation. The second thing, going
back to your question about the race and where we stand,
so I think Harris is ahead. I think she's ahead
right now, close to outside the margin of error and
the majority of the battleground states and nationally, my guess
is at the beginning of next week she'll be in
a stronger position than.
Speaker 4 (31:06):
She is today.
Speaker 3 (31:07):
However, I think by you know, the period probably around
Labor Day or slightly thereafter, prior to the September tenth debate,
my guess is that the race is going to settle
back down to a more practical number where I think
she'll be ahead. But it's all kind of within the margins.
(31:29):
And I think there are two very conflicting forces here
about the race. One I've mentioned several times I'll mention again,
which is the advantage that Republicans have and how we
elect presidents of the electoral college. It is an enormous advantage.
Electoral college is six votes more favorable to Trump now
after the last reapportionment and redistricting based on census than
(31:51):
it was in twenty twenty. The electoral college map really
favors Republicans. And the second thing, which I think is
the most significant thing that I'm looking at in Poland,
I kind of glance at these polls right now, but
I do feel like it's sort of not really that
important because as I said earlier, this is kind of
not for real, which you can't ignore them. But what
I've seen consistently, which I think is the biggest problem
(32:13):
for Trump, is that the majority of our country has
never supported Donald Trump. The majority of the country never
one day as president did he have a fifty percent
job approval.
Speaker 4 (32:24):
He never got forty seven.
Speaker 3 (32:26):
Percent of the popular vote in twenty sixteen or twenty twenty.
Of all the battleground states. The only battleground state that
he ever got fifty percent of the vote in was
Georgia in twenty sixteen. So the fact of the matter
is the more's a two person race, the worst forty
six point whatever percent of the vote looks and you
(32:46):
see in the cratering of the third party.
Speaker 4 (32:48):
If you look at d CNNA New.
Speaker 3 (32:50):
York Times polls that came out in the three battle
Donald straits, all three said Paris is up by four.
But to me, what was most relevant of that was
all three polls he was at forty six percent of
the vote. And I think that's going to be the
biggest challenge John you have in your campaign, particularly if
you're seeing this cratering of third parties, is how do
(33:11):
you deal with a two person race to get a
majority of people in this country to support someone who
they never in seven years have done.
Speaker 2 (33:20):
When Republicans win, it's not because Republicans are great. It's
most often because the voters reject the Democrats and having
grown up in New York and make a career winning
in New York, I got all the scars. But the
only time you Republicans win is when you get enough
Democrats and independence to reject the Democrat failure. Because even
(33:44):
when you go back to the eighties, when it was
a two majority system, you had a Democrat partisan majority,
you had a conservative ideological majority. Now let's come closer,
But last night the speeches were about rhetorica and not
about you know, real results. But that's a challenge for
Trump and your point about the polls you're sighting. I've
(34:04):
been through this before twice, in twenty sixteen and twenty fourteen.
The week before election day in twenty six there was
tellahannity we could win because I had actual polls modeled
on real turnout models, and we knew we were going
to try to bring out some of these casual voters.
It's going to be very close, and the same thing
on election day, but you had five thirty eight saying
seventy one percent they were going to lose, et cetera.
(34:27):
And in twenty twenty it was the same thing. I
was saying it was going to be close, and we
lost by forty four thousand votes out of the one
hundred and sixty million in three states. Basically, But you
look at the polls that you're citing, wisconstantly senior and
exit Paul had thirty seven percent Republican. The New York
Times poll this week had twenty seven percent Republican. It's
ten point difference. In Michigan, it was the nine point difference.
(34:49):
Were the underpolled Republicans. Your turnouts. They're discounying Republican and
Trump voters again the July fourth weekend. I looked at
their polls when they were putting it out after the
by debate. I'm like, these polls are too good. I
do it have an NBA and statistics, and you're looking
at the models and you're saying, it doesn't look like
an actual turnout database. It doesn't look like past the histories.
Speaker 4 (35:11):
Let me say two things to that.
Speaker 3 (35:13):
First of all, forget the polls. Just look at the
voting in twenty sixteen and twenty twenty. Look at the
voting in twenty sixteen and twenty twenty, and look at
the Trump vote nationally and in the battleground states period.
Second thing is, there are only three things I care
about when I'm running a campaign. I want to define
what the campaign's about. I want to define my candidate,
(35:36):
and I want to define my opponent. And prior to
Biden's withdrawal, this campaign was a referendum of the Trump
presidency versus the Biden presidency.
Speaker 4 (35:45):
Trump was strong, Biden was weak.
Speaker 3 (35:48):
That's why the Biden guys wanted an early debate, because
they knew they were a heading into a loss now
in the new order, you guys are losing the debate
about what this campaign's about, losing it's not over. You're
losing the battle to define Harris, and you're hardening the
silo of reminding people, the majority of people, why they
(36:10):
voted against Trump in twenty twenty. You had a spectacular
convention all the way through Thursday night, through the first
thirty minutes of Trump's speech when he was reading off
the teleprompter, but his last hour of riffing and every
single battle for who won the day.
Speaker 4 (36:30):
Trump is hardening the.
Speaker 3 (36:32):
Silo of his negative narrative, and all the money he
spent making age an issue about Biden is now becoming
a problem for him against a woman who's nineteen years
younger than him Trump, who's an unbelievable political specimen. He's
not the same guy who was seven years ago. He's
(36:53):
not the same guy who was three and a half
years ago. And don't take my word for it. All
you got to do is watch them.
Speaker 2 (37:00):
I'm just going back to the point. It's like, I
think the real campaign's coming now and ideologically and results oriented,
and you know, most of the voters that are going
to decide the race in the middle. They don't look
at terms of ideology, they don't look in terms of
partisan lenses. They're like, is my life going to get better?
Are the things that bother me now, whether it's inflation,
(37:23):
whether it's they're worried about their jobs. Again, the economy
is not really picking up, there's not real growth. Are
things going to get better? And that's the challenge for
President Trump, And that's the challenge to the campaign over
the next ten weeks in effect for the Trump game.
Speaker 3 (37:37):
But this is something that Trump understood and understands, and
Newton understood and understands, which.
Speaker 4 (37:44):
Is the way actions is to connect with people's heart,
not their head.
Speaker 3 (37:48):
Now, you can talk about stuff policy wise, but that's
not the game. The game is the emotional connection with
a voter. And that's what Trump has been spectacular at
until now and now currently he's losing the battle of
the emotional connection of what's going on in this campaign. Harris,
(38:12):
I've said it elsewhere in my lifetime. There have been
three movement politicians. Reagan Obama in two thousand and eight,
I don't think he was a movement politician. Twenty twelve,
it wasn't a eight and Trump and movements are bigger
than campaigns. And if you get to a movement, no, no
one's going to care about the White paper or this
(38:33):
issue and that issue.
Speaker 4 (38:34):
And I'm not sitting.
Speaker 3 (38:35):
Here today and telling you that Harris is running a
political movement now instead of a campaign.
Speaker 4 (38:41):
What I am.
Speaker 3 (38:41):
Telling you is she's moving towards that, and she may
become that, and if she becomes that, there's no way
to stop it.
Speaker 1 (38:51):
I think you just to find the two of you
sort of the core of where we're at. If Trump
does his job right, then Harris can't poss end up
being a movement leader. And if Paris does her job right,
then she probably can't be stopped. And I think that's
why the next six weeks are going to be fascinating.
(39:11):
I really appreciate you too. That's such a great, sophisticated
and knowledgeable conversation. I hope maybe sometime around the end
of September we can tempt the two of you into
one more round of this, and then after the election,
maybe we'll get one round of g I wish we
had known that whatever happens, because that's the nature of
(39:31):
the business. But I want to thank both of you
this has been really fascinating that you guys are so knowledgeable,
and I do want to let our listeners know. We're
going to have links to the latest polls on our
show page at neutrald dot com. But I thank both
of you for taking the time to join us.
Speaker 2 (39:50):
Thank you because I learn a lot listening to yourself
and Doug. So the education goes on and we're going
to need it over the next ten weeks, that's for sure.
Speaker 1 (40:03):
Thank you to my guests John McLaughlin and Doug Sosnik.
You can learn more about the state of the election
on our show page at newtsworld dot com. Newsworld is
produced by Gingish three sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive producer
is Guernsey Sloan. Our researcher is Rachel Peterson. The artwork
for the show was created by Steve Penley. Special thanks
(40:27):
to the team at Gingish three sixty. If you've been
enjoying Newtsworld, I hope you'll go to Apple Podcast and
both rate us with five stars and give us a
review so others can learn what it's all about. Right now,
listeners of newts World can sign up for my three
freeweekly columns at ginglestree sixty dot com slash newsletter, I'm
(40:48):
Nute Gingrich. This is newtsworld.
On this episode of News World. When I last had
my two guests on, it was June second, and an
unbelievable amount has changed for me personally. I could never
have projected every in a whole bunch of alternative histories.
I could not have invented from June second to today.
So I want to have these two experts back just
(00:27):
to get a flavor from some really experienced guys. Two
of the most experienced and well known posters in the
Democrat and Republican parties. John McLaughlin the CEO and partner
at McLaughlin Associates, a national survey research and strategic services company.
He's worked professionally as a strategic consultant and poster for
(00:48):
over thirty five years, and he's worked as an advisor
and polster for President Donald Trump and Doug Susnik. Doug
played a key role as an advisor of President Bill
Clinton from nineteen ninety four to two thousand. Doug played
a key role in policy strategy, political and communications decisions
(01:09):
in the White House. He has advised multiple US Senators, governors,
fortune one hundred corporations, foundations, and universities for thirty five years.
(01:30):
John and Doug I want to welcome you back. Could
either of you have imagined the last seven weeks?
Speaker 2 (01:39):
Actually, it's like one of your historical novels, Like you
couldn't even thought of this plot when you think about it,
the idea of everything that's gone on. You know, when
you talk about the national polls, we published a national poll.
It's really interesting to me, is because we're going to
end up talking about polls. Is that we put out
a poll the day before the debate in June, and
(02:01):
Trump won the debate handily, and Doug sent me some
polls after it. But you think about it, he won
the debate, the Democrats are calling for his withdrawal. He
then survives in an assassin's bullet. He then has a Republican
convention where the party's totally transformed the Party of Trump.
They're united behind him. And that's Sunday after it, Joe
Biden withdraws and hand picks Kamil Harris as his successor.
(02:27):
So the poll we did the day before the debate
Trump was up to and he always argues with me,
why I'm not up more? And I'm like, it's modeled
after the twenty twenty turnout a certain amount of Democrats,
certain amount of liberals, you're never getting their votes. It's closed.
The poll we did after Kamil Harris came in at
the beginning of August, Trump's up to and like Dougsman saying,
(02:48):
you know, you gotta wait to lift the labor day
after the conventions and everything. But I'm not sure there's
that much movement in the electorate one way or the other.
Speaker 1 (02:56):
But you know, if you look at the political press,
which of course has to write something every day, and
if you're twenty four hour cable news, you have to
think up something every hour, There's been all this turmoil,
all this excitement. Biden collapses in the debate, willia or
will he not get off the ticket? Calisto walks and
have said to me, Joe Biden just Withdrew and I said,
(03:17):
this is Babylon b right. She said no. Two or
three hours later, Kamala Harris, who we all knew couldn't
possibly run, is not only running, she's got his endorsement
and she's the nominee. I've never seen anything like it
for being a roller coaster. But Doug, what's your experience
of the last six or seven weeks.
Speaker 3 (03:36):
First of all, I absolutely could never have predicted where
we be today. However, would say that at the beginning
of twenty twenty three, I thought having a Trump Biden
rematch was defined the laws of political gravity. So I
did think something was going to happen. In fact, I
wrote something at the end of twenty twenty three about
(03:58):
the race where I started talking about Linda Johnson getting out. Now,
I was probably a little too wimpy, and I was
implicitly suggesting Biden get out, but I didn't say it
out loud. But I didn't predict it, but I wanted
to just if I could build on. But john said
a minute ago, everything is different about this race than
it was.
Speaker 4 (04:16):
On the other hand, in a lot of ways, a
lot hasn't changed.
Speaker 3 (04:20):
And if you take October early November of twenty twenty
three until the debate is six seven months.
Speaker 4 (04:25):
That was a very consistent race. Trump was ahead narrowly,
but it was a durable lead both nationally and in
the battleground states. Despite the fact that you know, Biden
had a job approval in the thirties, you had almost
seventy percent of the country said we're heading the wrong direction.
We had a stable race where Biden was really prior
(04:46):
to the debate. You know, I wouldn't say it's fifty
to fifty, but he started shot it win. You've now
had with Biden's withdrawal, and Harris's sort of like a
tornado that swept through. I think she is ahead now,
but I think that owl's not the time to to
really assess where the race stands, and we can talk
about that in polling in a minute. Despite the fact
that I don't think Harris has lost this no news
(05:07):
cycle in the last month, she is like a tornado.
Having said all that, the race is close, and it's
within a couple of points, and it's the same states
that are going to determine the outcome.
Speaker 3 (05:19):
But I think that there's maybe a little bit over
exuberance on the Democratic side. If nothing else, we're coming
out of a profound period of depression when Biden goes
out of the ticket. But I think the race is
a lot closer than maybe what your rank and file
Democrat or what you're a mainstream media person is depicting
right now.
Speaker 1 (05:38):
It's almost like the country has polarized into these two tribes,
and all you need to know is who's the leader
of my tribe. I'm for him. Now tell me what
else is going on? Do you sort of sense that
the country in that sense has frozen into a tribalism
that makes thinking about winning the elections different than it
(06:01):
would have been have been around so long. I mean,
I look at examples like Reggo Carter or like George H. W.
Bush Doucaucus. I'm not sure we have the fluidity that
we had back then. The two tribes may be pretty
decisively structured, but what do you two think.
Speaker 2 (06:20):
I think you're right as we're seeing less swing voters
and less moving where all of a sudden you could
have Reagan winning with sixty percent of the vote. Doesn't
look possible now in the electric because there's an Obama
coalition that got built when he won in two thousand
and eight. That was really a new Democratic coalition where
(06:42):
it was based on a maximum turnout of minority support,
It was based on tracting Latinos, based on transitioning college
educated voters into the Democrat Party, and it was also
based on younger voters. And the Democrats have worked in
the younger voters. I mean, we used to do palling
for MTVA when Bush was President etc. Were the token Republicans.
(07:02):
But the Democrats that was the one cohort. They would
win the voters under thirty et cetera. And Bush. When
you look at his win over Kerry, it was only
fifty one to forty eight, and that's the last majority
Republican win. And there were lots of wronging polls then too.
But Trump, when he won the Republican campaign with his
positions on trade and immigration, represented a transformation in the
(07:27):
Republican campaign in opposite to the Obama coalition. So the
Trump coalition, we were going to bring out new voters
who were in the heartland of America. They were from
the rest Belt and the Sun Belt, and they were
the ones who during the eight years of Obama kind
of got hurt badly. And then after COVID and then
after Biden, Trump was attracting pieces of the Obama coalition.
(07:51):
The Biden twenty twenty voter who became a Trump twenty
four voter was a quarter black, quarter Hispanic. Average age
was thirty five, and they were still working class voters
that they were attracted to the Republican Party. That the
Republican Party has become the working class voter and In
Doug's writings, he's talked about how you have the smallest
(08:12):
share of the electorate that the white working class voter now,
but they're still significant in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. And Trump
his ability to win in twenty sixteen when he said,
how are we going to win? We los into all
these polls to Hillary Clinton. I said, you know, a
lot of voters didn't vote for Mitt Romney. They walked away.
All one hundred and thirty million voted. It was ninety
(08:33):
million voters who were eligible who didn't vote. I said,
We're going to bring out new voters, these casual Republican voters,
and they were the ones who It wasn't an Obama
voter who switched to Trump that created the two hundred
and eight Pivot counties. It was new voters coming in
that we had nine million more voters than the Romney
(08:54):
Obama fight. But then David Pluff in twenty twenty took
to a new level where the Democrat strategy was based
on not winning battleground states, battleground counties within the battleground
states where they're registered voters who would have been Hillary voters,
and then made it easier for them to vote, and
(09:15):
now he's running the Harris campaign with Axelrod's TV firm.
So the Republicans are not only up against a new candidate,
but they're up against a strategic team that has changed
American politics before.
Speaker 1 (09:31):
One of the big changes when Biden leaves is you
now do get the Obama team, which Biden wouldn't use,
and I think they're remarkably better than the team that
Biden had. Doug, what's your sense of the degree to
which polarization limits the potential swing in vote support?
Speaker 3 (09:50):
First of all, the Abama team is far better than
the Biden came in. Secondly, John has actually been seven
out of the last eight presidential elections Republicans have not
gotten the majority of the votes. And I think that
in lies one of the problems that the challenges that
Democrats have right now, which is the electoral College. And
I think it is favoring the Republicans in terms of
(10:12):
two Americas. We are in two Americas, and I think
all you have to do really is just look at
twenty minutes of the Republican convention a month ago with
the SoundOff, and just look at twenty minutes of the
Democratic convention this week without the SoundOff, and you'd think
we're in two completely different countries based on that, and
we are right now in tribes and it is frozen
(10:34):
for now. And I think the two best predicters one
is John's alluded to, which is a level of education
people have, and the Republicans are now more of a
working class party.
Speaker 4 (10:44):
For the first time.
Speaker 3 (10:45):
In the last election, white working class voters constituted less
than forty percent of the vote. However in the three
industrial Midwestern states they constitute over fifty percent of the vote.
When we were all starting in politics, Democrats better in
presidential years and Republicans and off years because occasional voters
are Democrats. Well, now occasional voters are Republican. So the
(11:07):
two best predictors, well, there's one best predictor for sure,
which is education, which John mentioned, and that's part of
I think how that is now transcending even race since
the twenty twelve Romney campaign that Trump has been doing
so much better with Hispanic voters and it really does
cut by educational levels. With the second issue, or the
second factor, which I think is going to be more
(11:28):
pronounced in this election than it has in any election,
is the gender gap which has been existing in American
politics since the nineteen eighty Raging campaign, and I think
this is going to be a historic gender gap, both
because of the nature of the Harris candidacy but also
the nature of the Trump candidacy. The last thing, I'll say,
we are frozen and we will stay frozen until this generation,
(11:50):
our generation moves off.
Speaker 4 (11:51):
The political scene.
Speaker 3 (11:52):
I do think when we have the millennials of the
gen Z's taking over our country, I think that we
will unfreeze this cultural divide that really started in the
nineteen sixties.
Speaker 1 (12:19):
When you go down to governorships in both sides, you
see people who win huge victories as governor Democrats and Republicans,
and then of course you get up to the national level,
it sort of evens out because all the states where
the Democrats win huge margins tend to be for the
Democrats in the states where the Republicans, you know the Santis'
(12:40):
margin in Florida, which when I was first in politics,
it was inconceivable that you'd have Florida as a basically
Republican state. But the changes have been that profound.
Speaker 3 (12:52):
That's all driven by how the tribalism. It's all driven
by educational level. So forty out of fifty states are
controlled by one political party, overwhelmingly controlled by one political party.
I might add forty out of fifty states. That's this tribalism,
which right now the single best predictor of where a
community falls politically is the level of education of people
(13:14):
in that community.
Speaker 1 (13:15):
Which is also a remarkable shift from say nineteen sixty
when you would have thought education meant that the Republicans
were carrying college and graduate school level and Democrats were
carrying high school and two year college level.
Speaker 3 (13:30):
It started somewhat with Clinton, but it really started in
the two thousands. John mentioned about the Obama coalition in
two thousand and eight, and there was one major component
of the Obama coalition in two thousand and eight that
has moved to Trump and the Republicans and stayed there,
and that's white working class people. So you had two
(13:51):
hundred and six counties in the United States and voted
for Obama in two thousand and eight, Obama in twenty twelve,
and voted for Trump in twenty sixteen. Two hundred and
six counties. Now in twenty twenty only twenty six of
them went to Biden and so that coalition that was
part of the Obama coalition was overwhelmingly white, non college
(14:13):
older voters in the areas of the country part is
hit by glization in trade with China. That part of
the Obama coalition is now firmly the core of the
Republican Party, which really started politically. It first showed up
an American politics. Remember, as we all know, politics is
(14:35):
a lagging indicator of what's going on in our country.
Speaker 4 (14:38):
It's not a leading indicator.
Speaker 3 (14:39):
And so the first time it showed up politically it
was in nineteen ninety two with Pat Buchanan's primary against
Bush and then the Paro candidacy where he got almost
twenty million votes.
Speaker 1 (14:49):
If you looked at the two conventions, the Republican convention
is a post revolutionary convention in terms of who's there.
President bo Brush is not there, Vice President Cheney's not there,
Vice President Pence is not there. There is really a
profound shift and who shows up at the Republican convention.
(15:11):
If you look at the Democratic Convention, the entire machines there,
I mean, nobody's missing. And I just thought it was
a very interesting comment on change in the two parties
and the whole notion that, in a sense, the establishment
intervened in twenty twenty to block Sanders, then accepted Biden,
and then they decided right after the Biden Trump debate
(15:35):
that Biden would lose, so they intervened to replace Biden.
All of this, of course in the name of democracy.
Speaker 3 (15:41):
But there are two factors there. The two factors to
that phenomena, which I agree with. The first factor is
the Republican Party has now completed a political transformation where
it's a party of Trump. So for we Democrats for
twenty five years, every four years, a convince to try
to figure out what we gonna do abou Jimmy Carter.
(16:02):
I mean, we don't want them to show up. We
can't not invite them, So you know, how do we
deal with Jimmy Carter. We've got all these pre Trump
generation of Republican politicians. Nobody wants them there, and they
don't want to be there. That's one factor what you said.
But the other factor is that this Party of Trump
right now is really I don't want to sound too partisan.
Speaker 4 (16:23):
I would have used the term cult, but that's probably
a little too edgy.
Speaker 2 (16:26):
Doug.
Speaker 1 (16:27):
On this podcast, you can use any word you want.
Speaker 3 (16:30):
The politics of personality is driving right now. The Republican
Party is a party of transformation, is now the party
of Trump. I do think the personality of Trump is
taking over a lot of the oxygen of the party.
Speaker 2 (16:43):
You got to give credit to Newt, because Newt, you know,
transformed the country. I was lucky because Bill McCollum and
Haley Barber paid for a survey in September ninety four
that I got to deliver it to the Republican House
leadership and it was in the bowels of the Capitol
with the Minority Party and Bob Michael's there. I'm delivering
(17:03):
the poll and I said, it's September of ninety four,
and I've got a poll where the generic vote has
the Republicans up seven for Congress. And I've never seen
that before in all the years. And I wasn't that
long a polster, but I worked for Finkelstein before I
went on my own. I've never seen that before, and
I'm like going to win the majority. But Newts won
that majority, and still he was part of that and
(17:26):
now he's still at the convention. When I got there,
I said, do you know the differences the country Club's
not running the party anymore. The caddies are and it's
the Republican Party with Trump transforming it. Here's this blue
collar billionaire who is not from politics, who doesn't play
(17:46):
by the rules, and he really doesn't believe in the
polls as much as his gout. Sometimes his guts wrong,
but a lot of times it's right. His ability to
identify with working class voters, who did Democrats know they
may or may not come into the process. Just before
I got on the call, I'm looking at an economist.
Poll comes out. Okay, they got Harris up three. Go
(18:08):
to the demographics and they have Republicans at twenty eight
percent of their sample and the Democrats at thirty eight.
I'm like the list exit polls were twenty twenty, thirty seven,
thirty six, twenty sixteen, thirty six, thirty three. We have
been under thirty percent of the electorate going back to
the twentieth century when you would have swings of conservative
(18:31):
Democrats into the Republican Party. But that's a bygone here.
That's the Reagan here.
Speaker 4 (18:36):
John two. Thanks.
Speaker 3 (18:37):
First of all, the undersampling by pollsters of white working
class voters has been a problem since Donald Trump first
ran and that's why there's always a surprise on election
day based on the polling because of the undersampling of
actual turnout. The other couple of things I'll say, I
(18:58):
do agree that Trump has a unique appeal to blue
collar workers. I would hardly call him a blue collar
background candidate. And the last thing I'll say, now, you
probably take this as a compliment, actually, although when I
normally have a speech and say what I'm getting to say,
it is not intended as a compliment. But we have
essentially began at the late nineteen eighties the weaponization of
(19:20):
American politics, and that's what changed. That's what's changed our politics.
It's the weaponization of everything in politics. And the two
events that I hold most responsible for that was one
that was the Democrats handling of the Boar Hearing, in
which they set a new standard in which there's no
such thing as anything sacri saying in terms of our
(19:42):
ability to politicize everything. And the other new was you're
taking over the House Republicans and winning the Congress, and
so I considered it a bipartisan group effort, and I
always frame you as one of the godfathers of that.
But not in a partisan way, but as just a
way our country in politics changed.
Speaker 1 (20:02):
I cheerfully plead guilty. If you're a minority party and
you've been in the wilderness for forty years, you had
better figure out how to be tough enough to draw
a line that will get you elected. I wrote a
whole book on this called March the Majority. If you're
the majority party, you want to blur the differences and
then you get to remain the majority party. If you're
(20:22):
an effective minority party, you want to maximize the differences,
and that way you might actually emerge. So Doug, I
think your analysis is right, and I do think Bork
and then Clarence Thomas, and from the narrow standpoint of
the House, stealing a Indiana nine in nineteen eighty four
was a seminal event which suddenly we said, if the
(20:42):
Democrats will do that, then there are no holds barred.
I'm fascinated in the cross Times. And let's tell you too,
to comment, Black males have stuck with Trump to a
much greater extent than you would have expected given the
nomination of a black nominee. But she clearly has solidified
(21:03):
black women. But my sense is she has not in
fact solidified black males. Do either of you have a
comment on that phenomenon.
Speaker 2 (21:11):
Well, I've seen by the way I've seen recent Pauli
over the weekend where in some states she hasn't quite
solidified the black women yet because they're still going to
the store paying high prices on inflation. There's still problems,
real problems that real people are facing that she doesn't
have the answer to. And what's interesting is she's part
of the elites. Symbolically, yes, she happens to be an
(21:33):
African American woman, but she's part of the elites and
black men it's even worse for them. And Biden during
his four years it was going to point a black
woman as vice president, I'm going to point a black
woman to the Supreme Court. I'm going to black men.
I don't know. They were just getting less attention and
less connection and they're dealing with real problems. And for
(21:54):
the years, and Doug's been part of these wars with
the governor's racist Georgia Allen. When he got elected governor
in ninety three, we got over twenty percent of the
black vote and Jim Gilmore, but it was on real
things about it, like we were ending parole and we
were fighting crime and no car attacks. Nathan Deal when
he got re elected governor in twenty fourteen in Georgia,
(22:16):
we had done the drug courts and the version of
the first Step back first before Trump ever did it.
And we went after or tried to appeal to African
American voters. And there was a profile. There was a
middle class black voter who felt the same alienation that
white voters feel, and they had more in common in
(22:37):
terms of yeah, sure, they're members of law enforcement, they're
members of their veterans, they want their kids to go
to a charter school. They had a demographic that you
could say didn a vote with Republicans, and you know
Nathan and Deal and then Casey Cagle and Georgia, we
got over twenty percent of the black vote. And Trump
has been connecting with African American voters who they know
(23:00):
that their real wealth has gone down, their situations not
been as good, and you've got a country where yeah,
I less national poll seventy five percent sets on the
wrong track, sixty two percent say the economy's getting worse,
fifty percent they can't afford basic necessities even though they're
icing the parties based on race and age and all
(23:23):
these other demographics. Education, there's common problems that if the
Trump campaign and the Republicans talk about the issues and
talk about the solutions, we have a real opportunity to
beat Kamala Harris. Like I agree with Doug, let's wait
till aft the Labor Day, Let's wait till the debate.
You know, they're trying to run a character race that's
more about style and vibes and run away from kind
(23:47):
of the current issues. They had Joe Biden at the
convention speak after eleven thirty. It's amazing the way that
they're trying to like, she's not the vice president, she's not.
Speaker 5 (23:57):
Responsible for any of these things. She hasn't been his
partner for three and a half years. It's like she's
sitting there at the convention. You watch her on TV
and you're like, it's unbelievable. She didn't win a single primary,
didn't win a caucus, and poor Joe see you by,
and he's not coming back to the convention and the
three and a half years in the past or his
problem and not hers.
Speaker 4 (24:18):
I do agree with John's point.
Speaker 3 (24:20):
I think what's been under reported is the fact that
since twenty twelve, after Obama was no longer on the ballot,
the support for Democrats with blacks has gone down, and
in fact, in twenty twenty, Biden ran behind Clinton the blacks.
Speaker 4 (24:37):
So there are two issues in.
Speaker 3 (24:39):
Terms of the black vote, and I do think it's
really largely confined to males and younger males in particular,
and probably non college younger males. The two issues for
Democrats one is if they're going to vote for Harris,
are they actually going to turn out and vote? And
if you look at the twenty twenty results, turn out
even in Atlanta and Fillladelphia, Detroit, these big cities, the
(25:02):
turnout was down. But secondly, Trump is running better with
these voters now than he was in twenty twenty. Now
we're probably running as well with these voters now as
he was two months ago when Biden was on the ticket,
but he still is outperforming how he did with these
voters in twenty twenty.
Speaker 1 (25:36):
I get the sense, with all of the news media effort,
yeah and all of the fluff, this is still a
real race. Back in June, we couldn't have predicted all
the different things that have happened since then. The truth
is from now to election day, a lot of things
could happen, and that it has not refrozen in a
(25:56):
definable pattern at this stage.
Speaker 2 (25:59):
Is that a fair You have a friend Brent Bozella
runs the Media Research Center. Brent just put out a
study where they covered the mainstream media networks and the
cable networks from July twenty one to August seventeenth that
eighty four percent of the coverage for Harris has been positive.
So it goes to Doug's point about her winning the
(26:19):
news cycle like every day, every hour, eighty nine percent
of the Trump coverage has been negative. And Brent did
a poll with US a week ago where he had
twelve hundred registered Democrats and independent Biden voters. Independence of
voted for Biden eight hundred Democrats, and he asked him,
(26:39):
are you aware not aware that Harris supported cutting funding
to the police seventy one percent not aware? Aware that
she never visited a conflict zone on the border as
the boarders are seventy two percent not aware. She doesn't
consider it a crime to enter the US illegally seventy
four percent not aware. Most Liberal center in twenty nineteen
in the US Senate seventy five percent not aware. To
(27:03):
support elimination of private health insurance eighty one percent not aware.
So the real campaign hasn't really started. Through the Democratic Convention,
we got this extended honeymoon. She made one press availability
where she said she wanted to have an arms of
bargo on Israel, and then they reeled that back in.
And then she did do the speech last week where
(27:25):
she talked about price controls. So I think the real
issue part of the campaign's beginning. And then I looked
at the convention last night and what happened with Trump
with the black journalists. They really want to try to
bate Trump into blowing up. They want to say, just
like Joe Biden in the debate, Joe Biden called him
a racist, mentioned the porn star, called him a convicted felon,
(27:48):
and Biden's speech, to the extent it was late at night,
was the same kind of untruce attacks on Trump. And
the one debate Harris has agreed to, I'm sure he's
going to try to get him to say something that
she can betray as racist and something that's misogynistic. So
on the intellectual level, we've got these two coalitions. We've
(28:10):
got all these issues, but on a stylistic personality level,
the Democrats, they play hardball.
Speaker 4 (28:18):
John and I are in the business, are trying to
win elections.
Speaker 3 (28:20):
We're not working for the Columbia Journalism Review that we're
not working for the Institute for the Free Press of
America and the Democrat delighted how much press Trump does.
I wish he would do a press conference every day,
And I think I would say two things about the press.
One is the mainstream press. And I said this on
a podcast the other day, and I came to Darling
(28:41):
of the right wing media, the mainstream press as a
bias for Democrats, and they hate Trump, but the main
stream press, what's more important to them than that is
covering a story and feeling like they're treated right. And
generally the candidate who has the mainstream press on their wins,
and it's not always the Democrat. I would say in
(29:03):
two thousand and four, the press at the anti carry
was a big phony, and when they didn't like Bush
and agree with him, I think they thought it was
at least the real thing. I think in twenty sixteen,
the mainstream press they bought in the Trump narrative about
Crooked Hillary and all the rest of it. And I
think they turned on Biden. They turned on Biden when
they thought that they had been misled and mistreated about
(29:26):
his actual health. So it's not an automatic that they're
going to support and be in the tank for Democrats.
Speaker 4 (29:32):
But they clearly are.
Speaker 3 (29:35):
Beside themselves with joy that Harris is running against Trump.
Speaker 1 (29:40):
I used to have a ground rule. If you're a
House Republican back in the seventies, eighties and early nineties,
you didn't get any coverage. I mean, you didn't exist
in terms of national media. Well. One of the theories that
I developed was the press is like a great white
shark that if something bleeds, they will eat it. They
(30:00):
may feel bad eating it if it's a liberal Democrat,
but they can't help themselves. When we went after Jim
Wright for ethics problems and he ultimately had to resign
as speaker, I knew the once they caught the scent,
even though they would much prefer right over me that descent,
that there was something there, they would just start chewing
(30:22):
and they couldn't back off.
Speaker 4 (30:23):
Two things about that and Day.
Speaker 3 (30:24):
First of all, what you did do long before you
took over the House in ninety four. What you did really,
for the first time since the early nineteen fifties, you
made the House Republican minority relevant. And you can't be
part of the conversation if you're not part of the conversation. So,
whether it's Jim Wright's books or whatever it is, you
(30:46):
forced your way into the conversation. The second thing, going
back to your question about the race and where we stand,
so I think Harris is ahead. I think she's ahead
right now, close to outside the margin of error and
the majority of the battleground states and nationally, my guess
is at the beginning of next week she'll be in
a stronger position than.
Speaker 4 (31:06):
She is today.
Speaker 3 (31:07):
However, I think by you know, the period probably around
Labor Day or slightly thereafter, prior to the September tenth debate,
my guess is that the race is going to settle
back down to a more practical number where I think
she'll be ahead. But it's all kind of within the margins.
(31:29):
And I think there are two very conflicting forces here
about the race. One I've mentioned several times I'll mention again,
which is the advantage that Republicans have and how we
elect presidents of the electoral college. It is an enormous advantage.
Electoral college is six votes more favorable to Trump now
after the last reapportionment and redistricting based on census than
(31:51):
it was in twenty twenty. The electoral college map really
favors Republicans. And the second thing, which I think is
the most significant thing that I'm looking at in Poland,
I kind of glance at these polls right now, but
I do feel like it's sort of not really that
important because as I said earlier, this is kind of
not for real, which you can't ignore them. But what
I've seen consistently, which I think is the biggest problem
(32:13):
for Trump, is that the majority of our country has
never supported Donald Trump. The majority of the country never
one day as president did he have a fifty percent
job approval.
Speaker 4 (32:24):
He never got forty seven.
Speaker 3 (32:26):
Percent of the popular vote in twenty sixteen or twenty twenty.
Of all the battleground states. The only battleground state that
he ever got fifty percent of the vote in was
Georgia in twenty sixteen. So the fact of the matter
is the more's a two person race, the worst forty
six point whatever percent of the vote looks and you
(32:46):
see in the cratering of the third party.
Speaker 4 (32:48):
If you look at d CNNA New.
Speaker 3 (32:50):
York Times polls that came out in the three battle
Donald straits, all three said Paris is up by four.
But to me, what was most relevant of that was
all three polls he was at forty six percent of
the vote. And I think that's going to be the
biggest challenge John you have in your campaign, particularly if
you're seeing this cratering of third parties, is how do
(33:11):
you deal with a two person race to get a
majority of people in this country to support someone who
they never in seven years have done.
Speaker 2 (33:20):
When Republicans win, it's not because Republicans are great. It's
most often because the voters reject the Democrats and having
grown up in New York and make a career winning
in New York, I got all the scars. But the
only time you Republicans win is when you get enough
Democrats and independence to reject the Democrat failure. Because even
(33:44):
when you go back to the eighties, when it was
a two majority system, you had a Democrat partisan majority,
you had a conservative ideological majority. Now let's come closer,
But last night the speeches were about rhetorica and not
about you know, real results. But that's a challenge for
Trump and your point about the polls you're sighting. I've
(34:04):
been through this before twice, in twenty sixteen and twenty fourteen.
The week before election day in twenty six there was
tellahannity we could win because I had actual polls modeled
on real turnout models, and we knew we were going
to try to bring out some of these casual voters.
It's going to be very close, and the same thing
on election day, but you had five thirty eight saying
seventy one percent they were going to lose, et cetera.
(34:27):
And in twenty twenty it was the same thing. I
was saying it was going to be close, and we
lost by forty four thousand votes out of the one
hundred and sixty million in three states. Basically, But you
look at the polls that you're citing, wisconstantly senior and
exit Paul had thirty seven percent Republican. The New York
Times poll this week had twenty seven percent Republican. It's
ten point difference. In Michigan, it was the nine point difference.
(34:49):
Were the underpolled Republicans. Your turnouts. They're discounying Republican and
Trump voters again the July fourth weekend. I looked at
their polls when they were putting it out after the
by debate. I'm like, these polls are too good. I
do it have an NBA and statistics, and you're looking
at the models and you're saying, it doesn't look like
an actual turnout database. It doesn't look like past the histories.
Speaker 4 (35:11):
Let me say two things to that.
Speaker 3 (35:13):
First of all, forget the polls. Just look at the
voting in twenty sixteen and twenty twenty. Look at the
voting in twenty sixteen and twenty twenty, and look at
the Trump vote nationally and in the battleground states period.
Second thing is, there are only three things I care
about when I'm running a campaign. I want to define
what the campaign's about. I want to define my candidate,
(35:36):
and I want to define my opponent. And prior to
Biden's withdrawal, this campaign was a referendum of the Trump
presidency versus the Biden presidency.
Speaker 4 (35:45):
Trump was strong, Biden was weak.
Speaker 3 (35:48):
That's why the Biden guys wanted an early debate, because
they knew they were a heading into a loss now
in the new order, you guys are losing the debate
about what this campaign's about, losing it's not over. You're
losing the battle to define Harris, and you're hardening the
silo of reminding people, the majority of people, why they
(36:10):
voted against Trump in twenty twenty. You had a spectacular
convention all the way through Thursday night, through the first
thirty minutes of Trump's speech when he was reading off
the teleprompter, but his last hour of riffing and every
single battle for who won the day.
Speaker 4 (36:30):
Trump is hardening the.
Speaker 3 (36:32):
Silo of his negative narrative, and all the money he
spent making age an issue about Biden is now becoming
a problem for him against a woman who's nineteen years
younger than him Trump, who's an unbelievable political specimen. He's
not the same guy who was seven years ago. He's
(36:53):
not the same guy who was three and a half
years ago. And don't take my word for it. All
you got to do is watch them.
Speaker 2 (37:00):
I'm just going back to the point. It's like, I
think the real campaign's coming now and ideologically and results oriented,
and you know, most of the voters that are going
to decide the race in the middle. They don't look
at terms of ideology, they don't look in terms of
partisan lenses. They're like, is my life going to get better?
Are the things that bother me now, whether it's inflation,
(37:23):
whether it's they're worried about their jobs. Again, the economy
is not really picking up, there's not real growth. Are
things going to get better? And that's the challenge for
President Trump, And that's the challenge to the campaign over
the next ten weeks in effect for the Trump game.
Speaker 3 (37:37):
But this is something that Trump understood and understands, and
Newton understood and understands, which.
Speaker 4 (37:44):
Is the way actions is to connect with people's heart,
not their head.
Speaker 3 (37:48):
Now, you can talk about stuff policy wise, but that's
not the game. The game is the emotional connection with
a voter. And that's what Trump has been spectacular at
until now and now currently he's losing the battle of
the emotional connection of what's going on in this campaign. Harris,
(38:12):
I've said it elsewhere in my lifetime. There have been
three movement politicians. Reagan Obama in two thousand and eight,
I don't think he was a movement politician. Twenty twelve,
it wasn't a eight and Trump and movements are bigger
than campaigns. And if you get to a movement, no, no
one's going to care about the White paper or this
(38:33):
issue and that issue.
Speaker 4 (38:34):
And I'm not sitting.
Speaker 3 (38:35):
Here today and telling you that Harris is running a
political movement now instead of a campaign.
Speaker 4 (38:41):
What I am.
Speaker 3 (38:41):
Telling you is she's moving towards that, and she may
become that, and if she becomes that, there's no way
to stop it.
Speaker 1 (38:51):
I think you just to find the two of you
sort of the core of where we're at. If Trump
does his job right, then Harris can't poss end up
being a movement leader. And if Paris does her job right,
then she probably can't be stopped. And I think that's
why the next six weeks are going to be fascinating.
(39:11):
I really appreciate you too. That's such a great, sophisticated
and knowledgeable conversation. I hope maybe sometime around the end
of September we can tempt the two of you into
one more round of this, and then after the election,
maybe we'll get one round of g I wish we
had known that whatever happens, because that's the nature of
(39:31):
the business. But I want to thank both of you
this has been really fascinating that you guys are so knowledgeable,
and I do want to let our listeners know. We're
going to have links to the latest polls on our
show page at neutrald dot com. But I thank both
of you for taking the time to join us.
Speaker 2 (39:50):
Thank you because I learn a lot listening to yourself
and Doug. So the education goes on and we're going
to need it over the next ten weeks, that's for sure.
Speaker 1 (40:03):
Thank you to my guests John McLaughlin and Doug Sosnik.
You can learn more about the state of the election
on our show page at newtsworld dot com. Newsworld is
produced by Gingish three sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive producer
is Guernsey Sloan. Our researcher is Rachel Peterson. The artwork
for the show was created by Steve Penley. Special thanks
(40:27):
to the team at Gingish three sixty. If you've been
enjoying Newtsworld, I hope you'll go to Apple Podcast and
both rate us with five stars and give us a
review so others can learn what it's all about. Right now,
listeners of newts World can sign up for my three
freeweekly columns at ginglestree sixty dot com slash newsletter, I'm
(40:48):
Nute Gingrich. This is newtsworld.
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