October 24, 2024 • 52 mins
On today's episode, sports betting expert and Only Players Chief Content Officer Doug Kezirian joins Jason to discuss his biggest problem with the current state of the sports wagering space, the evolution of sports betting 'touts' and his favorite picks for the upcoming NFL Week 8 slate.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
What is up straight firefam, It's me Jason McIntyre. Straight
Fire for Thursday, October twenty fourth. We have a phenomenal
pod A just a tremendous guest. If you like gambling,
you want to get smarter, you gotta listen to this one.
Doug Kazarian, formerly of ESPN, now he started his own shop.
(00:31):
He's an entrepreneur. He goes over some of his awesome
NFL draft hits. I mean, we're talking big, big payouts.
He's a sharp guy. I believe he went to an
IVY League school. Was a water polo guy. He's been
on the pod before. You guys all like it. Good stuff. Obviously,
I was locked in on the NBA last night, but
because Doug and I had such a good conversation on
(00:52):
a it's a long one. I don't have time, unfortunately,
to dive into some of the Just a tremendous NBA
fair that went down last night. My pacers, can I
call them my pacers? A nice comeback victory over Detroit.
It was a good night in the association. Poor bulls.
I heard there already. They've hashtagged it salute the flag.
(01:14):
They want to go for Cooper flag. They want to
just be awful and get Cooper flag, which is a
smart business model. I'll be brief. We talk. I don't
know if Doug and I talk about Monday Night football, sorry,
Thursday night football, but you guys, I tell it on
the pod. I'm on RAMS plus three. I'm upset that
I missed three and a half. Would not be shocked
if some two and a half's popped up today. A
lot of stuff that we've covered, you know, teams that
(01:35):
just played the Lions, teams that played on on Sunday
and then had to travel for a Thursday game across
multiple time zones, like it's not an easy task this
week from Minnesota. Now, I don't think the Rams are
very good. There's a lot of rumors swirling. I'm not
sure what I believe, but I'm on the RAMS plus three.
Would not be shocked if they want outright. I'm not
(01:56):
submitting in the contest, but I am. I'm on the
plus three And without further ado, let's get to our
interview Doug Kazarian, who started his own shop called Players Only.
Speaker 1 (02:11):
You know a guy Jason likes to think he knows
everything when it comes to sports.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
I know what sports fans want, but for.
Speaker 3 (02:18):
Everything he doesn't. He knows a guy who does. Let's
just say I know a guy who knows a guy
who knows another guy.
Speaker 2 (02:27):
All right, let's welcome into straight fire. He's been on
the pod once before. You know him from ESPN, from
his new betting venture Only Players. Doug Kazarian, Doug, how
you doing?
Speaker 3 (02:37):
Man? Good to be with you, man, I know the
life gets in the way, especially you with a family,
but you know, we don't communicate enough that I was
thinking about when you reached out for the pod, I
was like, gosh, I've just fallen off the grid so
much with so many people, so I'm really psychosic to
chop it up for a little bit.
Speaker 2 (02:53):
Yeah, and you'd like to ruffle some feathers in the
gambling space, shall we say? You had an awesome hit
around the NFL Draft. Was it two years ago or
three years ago?
Speaker 3 (03:03):
Maybe?
Speaker 1 (03:03):
With that.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
Tell the audience what that one was again?
Speaker 3 (03:06):
I yeah, it was an NFL Draft prop And so
basically you know when the betting space was even newer
back then, because right it was twenty twenty one and
legalization started at twenty eighteen, and not many people knew
that I had this betting background because I had done
Sports Center, Conventional Sports Center, and conventional sports talk radio
ESPN for so long that man, you thought I was
just like a talking head that pivoted to the betting space.
(03:28):
But I was like, no, I've been you know, I
had a bookie in high school and like then, I
had worked in Vegas for seven years before that, and
you know, I had kept my connections and things like that.
So coming back out to Vegas with ESPN, it was
great because I could talk betting, bet myself and get
you know, lean on my betting team and my sources
(03:48):
and all my connections in the space. But yeah, there
was a draft prop and it was just a perfect storm.
You know, we talk about it all the time with
the draft, how there's sometimes tweeterers in terms of positions.
And there was a guy named Tyson Campbell, who NFL
fans kind of know who he is with the Jaguars now,
but he was climbing draft boards that week, so a
(04:08):
week a week to go for the drafts. The drafts
on a Thursday, so starting like Friday before his for example,
his over under at CIRCA went from sixty two and
a half to forty six and a half, then like
thirty eight and a half, So was over under kept moving.
So you know, he was a cornerback and played, you know,
but he was tall, and so what happened was the
(04:31):
over under moved. But other indexes don't necessarily move as well,
and he was in a he was in a index
bet of safety. And so we see this more with
pass rushers, Like some guy's a linebacker and he projects
as a pass rusher and he's an edge rusher and
things like that. You play a certain position in college,
but that doesn't necessarily translate over to the NFL. So
(04:54):
I noticed on the Monday night of the draft week
that he was listed in a safety index and he
was one hundred to one, much like so many people
are because they had a minus money favorite. It was Mowrigg.
Woodard was supposed to go to the Raiders. He's out
of TCU and like the middle of the first round,
and then there was another guy out of I believe
you see f for Notre Dame. There's two guys and
(05:14):
then it was everyone else was like one hundred and one. Well,
he's a cornerback, not a safety technically, but he was
projecting as a safety like three months out when they
made the index bet and they just never fixed it.
So what happens in a lot of these is so anyway,
So I bet a bunch at him at one hundred
and one. I was able to get down at the
Kiosk machine at nine and they didn't. This is over
(05:35):
like two and a half hours. By the way, they
could have moved the odds, they just didn't. And whether
that's personnel issue, like I didn't really care.
Speaker 2 (05:43):
Did you bet it at one place or multiple?
Speaker 3 (05:45):
So no, I have Blagio and Aria. So I talked
about it, and I talked to my my main betting
partner is a huge draft gurus, so we were talking
some more about it, and I was like, you know,
I'm gonna go back and bet more and just kind
of went all not all in, but I bet a
few thousand because it was like such good value and
I had so many positions by then on the draft.
I do well in the draft every year on the Draft,
(06:06):
and I think it's surfaced since then is really tough
for odds makers because it's information driven and it's not
a sport where it's just like this point spread and random.
It's you can be so wrong with your original line
post right. Just even the year that Trey Lance it
went from like plus four hundred to minus three hundred
back to plus money. There's such volatility in the movement
(06:30):
based on like one tweet or one comment or one
podcast by mel kiper Jr. The built in buffer hold
percentage for the house doesn't offset how wrong they can
be because aside from like maybe Week eighteen or preseason,
you don't see line moves in the NFL like this weekend,
you know, quarterback change from an adult in de Bright.
It's only gonna move like a point. It's not gonna
(06:51):
go from minus seven to plus seven. But that doesn't happen.
We see it in the NBA tonight with both Joel
Embid and Paul George out, but it's gone from like
two and a half to three, like this is like
minus five hundred, like you know, plus three it's just
nuts and Trayvon Walker like he was like a field
bet one of the books out here about a month
out and then the end of being the number one pick.
(07:12):
So that's where like the players have an advantage and
the operators. Let's face it, the oddsmakers are just not
that good at it because they don't put in the
work and they don't do as much work as the
betters do because it's they have a lot of other
stuff on their plate as well.
Speaker 2 (07:26):
Yeah, so we've had a lot of gabblers come on
the pod and talk about getting banned at certain casinos
in Vegas. I don't think as much offshore they do banning.
But when you hit that at Blagio, were you then
banned from going in there and placing draft bets?
Speaker 3 (07:40):
No, So it's an MGM property. So I am at
like six books right now. I can only bet like
five dollars on the app a couple of them. I
can go in person and bet more like a regular
straight wager amount. So it's just like they make people
do that because it's time consuming. People really don't do that.
There's others I can at all. I just it's just
annoying and it is what it is. But that's what
(08:03):
people need to understand. And by the way, I end
up winning two hundred ninety seven thousand on that Tyson
Campbell situation.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
Yeah, I saw that written about in the vase.
Speaker 3 (08:11):
So many crazy things had to happen, like a mugick
woodard had to fall, and then there had to be
no other safeties, and then the corner like he was
like the eighth corner taken. And it just so happened
that Urban Meyer had recruited amount of high school back
when he was at Ohio State. And then Meyer's now
the coach of the Jags. So if it wasn't Meyer,
the Jags, like another safety would have gone because like
another safety went like three picks later. So probably the
(08:34):
true odd should have been like twenty five to one,
thirty to one. But that's like those are the odds
in an index when you have a minus money favorite
and he's like the fifth long shot.
Speaker 2 (08:41):
Or whatever, so it has incredible hit.
Speaker 3 (08:44):
The we're pro you hear a lot like, oh well,
those buildings on the strip aren't don't go up because
you know the sport, they're up because of the casino.
So the whole percentage, the whole percentage is quite low,
especially in Nevada like other states. Obviously betters aren't his experience,
but it's like four and a half percent. And I
(09:05):
talked to a Buddies and Odds maker. I go, what
would you what would the whole percentage be if sharps
could bet what they wanted within reason, Like they'll take
a sharp bet some books somebody can't at all, and
then they'll adjust and then it's like within reason there's limit,
and he goes, it'd probably go to like three percent,
and I go, okay, And then what if like harlays
were never invented, Like what if no one had any parlays?
(09:26):
And he goes, probably zero percent. So like that's why
the DraftKings of the world that like the it's really
like it's it's not like the math isn't as clean
as it is. And like the Rolett wheel, Right, the
Relett wheel math, you're getting certain payout, you're getting even
money on red or even money on black, and the
(09:46):
house is getting the other color and two greens. Okay,
Like that math is inarguable, right, the Relett wheel, it's inarguable. Right,
like the the the the craps table, Like we know
the math of the dice blackjacket's not quite as clean,
but we know the math for the most part, right,
So in sports, there's just a wider range of outcomes, right,
(10:07):
It's just not as simple as these x amount of
numbers on a rolet wheel. So if you know what
you're doing to an a certain extent, or if you
just have a good season right, then you can make money.
And it's not that rigorous, especially like softer markets like
the WNBA and things like that, like the house, Like
they don't pay these odds makers a ton of money.
Like the smartest guys are on for the most part
(10:29):
or on this side of the counter, so it can
be done. Now. They're really good at like bookmaking for sure,
like they're experts. They're more experts at bookmaking than they
are like odds making, like they know how to like
a lot of their job titles are manager at risk
and they're good at bookmaking. They're good at like anticipating
certain sharp money like Tuesday of NFL week, how they
(10:50):
know where the sharp money is going to be, Like,
they're really good at bookmaking. To be an originator, a
line originator and post a line that no one else has,
like maybe a Summer League game like wimmin Yama's props
or something like that, there's no market for that pick.
That's really hard. Or to create a prop bet on
something that hasn't been created yet like I don't know,
Judge versus Otani in the World Series Homers or whatever
(11:13):
that is, Like line origination is hard, but that's the
advantage we have is they have to put up a
menu of a million bets and we can sneak in
and pick one and that's why they're getting plus one,
ten or whatever. So beating the number is not like
thoroughly impossible, especially because there's so many smart people out
on the betting space. There's so much information out there,
The analytics are out there. So if you've been doing
it a long time, hopefully the scar tissue and the
(11:36):
pain I've you know, learned the hard way over the
years has taught me a thing or two. But that's
why these books limit certain people's because it's not just
like printing money like it is slot machines or you know,
some of the card games in the casino floor.
Speaker 2 (11:50):
Yeah, so, I you know, are you at the point
where you know you mentioned WNBA and I see you
tweeting about the WNBA finals? Major League Baseball? Are you
where do you rank NFL.
Speaker 3 (12:01):
Week to week?
Speaker 2 (12:01):
Like Sunday games, Obviously everybody loves them. Everybody spends a
lot of time watching them. It's it's tough to have
a big edge in these and you do the contest
I'm assuming, right.
Speaker 3 (12:12):
Yeah, So last year I think I basically had my
best NFL season ever. I finished fourteenth and Circle Millions
fourteenth in Westgate. And that's the thing. You don't know
when you're gonna have your best season, so you want
to be in these contests. Now, am I a lifetime
sixty five percent better in the NFL? No? This year
I've actually crazy. I'm up like forty something units. I've
done well live waging, and this is all kind of transparent,
(12:34):
like we've post everything and everything's through our you know,
app and stuff. And I want to get the betting
space to a space where it's not just some guy
babbling what he's doing. It's like everything's tracked and all
this stuff. Like I was actually looking into it and
I still haven't really fully vetted it. But like you know,
like the Ernst and Young certifies the NBA draft, right,
oh yeah, yeah, not like a draft generator company, but
(12:56):
they put their brand on the NBA. So like I
would love to get my Mike my uh, you know,
records confirmed or validated by ernstin Young or something like that.
We can get to it like we're really in our infancy, right.
This is oh, certainly pop half of the first inning
of legal ized sports betting.
Speaker 2 (13:12):
What waite?
Speaker 3 (13:12):
Isn't there?
Speaker 2 (13:13):
And again I didn't get an invite to this. I
don't know if you're involved, but isn't there some I've
heard mentions of it of a contest in Vegas with
some of the perceived sharp NFL gamblers and they track
I guess their best three picks. I think it's maybe
a Las Vegas newspaper or website.
Speaker 3 (13:27):
Do you know what I'm talking about? Well, every there's
always been like newspapers and contest things like I'm a
I'm in a contest with v sin through Circa where
there's twenty five professional andy kappers have all been invited.
I've been in it three straight years. Yeah, I finished
top eight. That's why I got invited back each of
the last two years. You have to pick seven sides
their totals college and NFL against. That's it.
Speaker 2 (13:47):
That's the what I'm talking about.
Speaker 3 (13:48):
Somebody who's been on noon on Friday the circa lines
neon on Friday instead of like a stale line that
has to come out Wednesday likes. You know, some of
these NFL contests are yeah, I mean I'm you know,
I'm ninth place or something. Right now. I only won
one best bet, but you know, like I was in
first place with like three weeks to go a couple
of years ago, the first year of it. But it
happened like it.
Speaker 2 (14:09):
But doesn't that kind of fit your bill of shouldn't
like Ernst and Young validate the picks. Doesn't that count?
Speaker 3 (14:16):
I've done well in contests, Like two years ago, I
had two top five finishes in the William Hill College
Football contest one fifty fifty eight thousand dollars. It was great, right,
I two my five entries finished top five. I was
very close, Like first place was one hundred grand. I
was like I had like one last drive by wake
Forest game was crazy. So, but like, contests are just
sort of one aspect of sports betting, right yeah. And
(14:40):
then the whether it be the content space of podcast
TV shows right right? You know, written columns that's just
you know, one bet, best bet of the day, Like
no one makes one wager same amount, right, there's futures.
So what I did with my companies, I wanted to
simulate the sports betting experience, so like I wanted to
calculate and tally units on on futures in game, pre
(15:02):
game props, all this stuff where I can demonstrate, like
like I can't tell you how many people DM me
and saying what do I do? I have this eight
leg parlay, like what's and it's awesome, but like, but
I think that's where I'm flattered by people know that,
Like I know how to like figure that out, right, Like,
(15:23):
and that's stuff I want to do with you know,
we have a subscription service now, but we want to
evolve the sports better. That's our hope, right. And I
was talking to a guy at the dog park randomly
because he heard me finishing up a phone call, and
he was like, hey, I'm a poker player. I don't
know much about sports, but like how do you do this?
And he basically got me to think about it in
a different ways, like how do you make someone a
(15:43):
better sports better? And I'm and I'm just thinking, like,
you know, it's a great point because like the first
three things I would say are undoing bad three bad habits.
It's like, you know, the betting content is betting space
is so limited right now, if the content space, then
it's like the taut space, and like that's it, right,
There's so many other parallels from other industries you can
cross over, right, So, like we're doing a lot of
(16:05):
stuff kind of like golf instruction. Right, you don't just
learn how to hit one shot. The guy you want
your golf coach to like teach you how to you know,
help your you know, prove your stroke, your swing, and
then you can, you know, practice on your own and
do things. So like I'm created sort of a you know,
a flow chart or whatever where like I do individual
zooms with guys and things like that where I can
(16:27):
teach people like to how to undo and stop the
bad habits because that's really how I did it. You
just get hit over the head enough times you learn that.
Like that's the best thing. I mean, just a simple
question like ask, you know, they need to know what's
the better number in an NFL game? Is it minus
two and two and a half minus one twenty or
minus three plus one hundred? Like you just got to
(16:47):
know it's minus two and a half plus you know,
minus one twenty. Like, so it's just stuff like that,
Like there's an educational component to a lot of this
stuff rather than just like hey, take the Packers minus four,
my game of the year, pay me whatever, nine ninety nine. Like,
there's so many bet are things to do and to
evolve the space, and you just have to create the
infrastructure and then hopefully enough people are do it and
then I need to be you know, marketed and do
(17:08):
all that stuff. But that's what we're trying to do
a big picture.
Speaker 2 (17:11):
So I would ask you you said, there's two levels
to it. There's the content space and then there's the touts.
Which do you think you technically fall in? Because I think, well,
I want to make it.
Speaker 3 (17:21):
I want to do like three, four, five, six, I
want to have like eight, you know, a bunch of
different lanes, right, Like that's the whole point. I'm trying
to evolve this space into a world that's beyond this
like app A and B concept. It's like, okay, so
let me back up.
Speaker 2 (17:36):
So who And this is a tough one because like
who is saying there's content and touts? Is that like
the theme among the gamblings the.
Speaker 3 (17:44):
Tout world has existed forever, like the gym vice world
where you get people picks and stuff like that, right,
and then you sell it and then there's packaging like
that's just existed since the beginning of time. I mean
that's existed, and I would imagine the Wall Street world
right there. It's like boiler room tactics and things all
along those lines. Right, there's financial analysts, and then there's
like the content space, and there's different forms of the
content space. Right, there's podcast TV, but there's no other
(18:06):
sort like like poker pros. About five ten years ago,
I had heard and I know some that started doing
individual private lessons that there were CEOs and all these
people who do these high you know, they're like successful businessmen.
Instead of playing golf, right, they also do poker charity
events or just play poker every every Wednesday or every
(18:27):
other Wednesday with the guys, and they wanted to get
better at poker. So you can there's webinars on this stuff,
and there's YouTube channels you have to pay for to
just get better. Because obviously there's a million permutations with
poker in terms of like you know, the raising and
all that. Like, there's so much technique involved. It's like
kind of like golf. Right, you can have side hill
downhill live. It's not just hey, hit one hundred and
(18:48):
fifty yard shot. So in poker, like there's so much
nuance to how many other people are in the pot,
how much just left in your stack, the bidding, the raising,
all that stuff. So in sports there's so much different
layers to this as well. So I started to think
about with poker pros and they're getting hired at a
high rate by a few experts. I have people I
(19:10):
work with who are high end betters, and I can
help them evolve and they can glean some wisdom and
I can put together lesson plans and shared screens on
zooms and do all sorts of stuff. And I also
they have access to me too, so like on a
discord set, Like they don't have my some of them
don't have my cell, but they have my like discord
so we so they can ask me anything at any
time during throughout the week, during games and they're like,
(19:31):
hey this is going on, or hey I bet this
on my own, Like I'm doing that, Like what do
you think? So there's learned experiences like I've I've taken
golf lessons, There's millions of times I've texted my golf
guy like, hey, I shot this today, but I could
have done that, you know what would you? You know,
so there's always in your world too, where people there's
it's basically a consultant, right Like you can create and
(19:54):
then you create knowledge, build infrastructure where people can you know, learn.
It's like going from a yellow belt to a brown belt,
purple belt. You know. It's that kind of concept where
you can, you know, grow as a better if you're
new to this space or you're it's turning twenty one
and you want to help him, and there's all sorts
of ways to do this besides like the taut world
(20:16):
and then listen to this podcast.
Speaker 1 (20:19):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
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listen live.
Speaker 2 (20:32):
Yeah, so the biggest pushback would be, Okay, so let's
take you know, Adam Turnoff obviously Right Angle Sports good guy.
He's been on the podcast a bunch. So Right Angle
Sports releases their picks right and unless you're getting the notification,
the alert right before they release it, you're more than
likely going to miss their release. At I don't know.
(20:52):
Let's just say six and a half and then boom,
it's at seven and you now and can no longer
get the best number and you're shifted. So you might like,
that's the only problem I have with Well, I've never
paid for a tout service before, right, So I've.
Speaker 3 (21:03):
Talked to people like that who do influence the market,
the few out there, and I don't want to put
anyone on spot or bad. So I said, you're doing
it as service here, like you have to just charge
more and if it ends up being three people who
get your service and they cover the same nut, Right,
it's ten people at one dollar, right, you need to
charge five dollars for two people. Right, it's just that
(21:25):
to get the same ten dollars. Whatever it is. Right,
So I'm with you. Now, the NFL is a liquid
enough market where those numbers will come back at times
like I know what RAS has played and the market
will sometimes come back.
Speaker 2 (21:37):
But that's a good point. The market will come back.
But here's the thing. How long do you have to
sit staring at the screen to no it'll come back?
Speaker 3 (21:46):
Like they'll send out a release like Wednesday and like
Sunday morning and might come back. But you're right. If
you're not doing it instantaneously, it moves because the books,
like we talked about, flag those accounts. So I'm of
the belief that you have to do things in a
certain way and have a price point, but then you
also have to have a value add like I don't. Yes,
everyone who subscribes my stuff knows what picks I'm doing,
(22:09):
and I do him in a time, we weigh whatever.
But there's so much more to it. I just think
that's one aspect to it. All.
Speaker 2 (22:14):
Right, So let's take a line from this week. Let's
do a week eight line. Let's go Cincinnati and Philly.
So it looks like we're recording this Thursday, Wednesday afternoon.
It looks like there's some Eagles money maybe coming in, right,
So it was two and a half. I'm seeing some twos.
I see a one and a half at FanDuel. So somebody,
(22:37):
let's just say Joe Smith, who is an advantage gambler,
he's plus ev, he's multimillionaire, he gave out to his service.
Let's just say he did Eagles plus two and a half.
All of a sudden, the line comes down. But you
had a meeting, you had lunch with your wife. All
this stuff you missed it. It's not a one and
a half. It's like and that. I don't know how
you saw that other than like just saying, you know what,
(22:59):
I'm not going to have a life. I'm not going
to hang with my kids or coach my kids or
I just it's it's a really tough life. Like, be honest,
how many hours a day are you looking at the screen.
Speaker 3 (23:08):
So it's a great point. The one thing I do
say is I'm a bachelor, and I know you are
yourself included who are successful in their careers and successful
at home. So it's like two full time jobs, right,
like to be a parent and obviously you you know,
have a spouse who helps with the parenting and does
their full time parent as well. But if I don't
have that, like I can do a lot of the stuff.
But I also built a TV studio in my house,
(23:30):
so we're doing a lot of content with We're going
to announce some like any day now. But we have
like a bunch of deals. We've had to get the
contract sign everything, but we're going to be a third
content provider of betting content so we can do talkbacks
we can do all these like different Tetris pieces. So
we're in the content space as well, so like I mean,
(23:50):
you're old enough, we wear the same agent. Roughly, it's
like remember the old the Motley Fool, like they would
do sort of like a daily newsletter and it still
exists now, but it's just in a form but like
Wall Street Journal, right, like they have educational and they
have analytical stuff and they have a paywall as well,
and there's so that's kind of what we want to be.
And now they can be a third party, like partner
(24:12):
up with another outlet, so I can do betting content
that some of it's behind on our paywall site, but
some of it's just different. It's like, hey, I'm just
telling you what I'm hearing and it's kind of interesting content.
Hopefully that we can create for other outlets and do
other stuff because people need betting content. But they're slowly
realizing this is my other beef with the betting space
(24:34):
that you know, the invisible hand is going to always
work itself out, but people are realizing that they don't
have the horses to do this stuff in house. Like
there was this this mass likeush of just giving everyone
the title of betting analysts, which I was just like
so random, Like it's just like, how did how's you know?
(24:54):
Whereas like if you're watching CBS before kickoff on Sunday mornings,
like Bill Cower's there, and like all these people have
credentials and it's just like this talking he Like I
think the biggest mistake the betting space. And I don't
know if ESPN did it or who did it first,
but just I think people should have literally have been
as simple as just giving him a betting personality or
betting talent or just something that wasn't analysts, because I
(25:15):
think all these people get on the defensive and they're
trying to be so technical and they're trying to all
be the same person with their plays. It's just like,
just be like a betting talent or betting personality and
then they can do some of the gimmicky social media stuff.
I mean, I think Cousin sALS like the great example.
He's really funny, really knowledgeable about sports. He doesn't take
(25:35):
himself too seriously. He's not sitting there ever, describing the
value of a half point. He's just talking sports through
the lens of betting and he's a great listen because
he's funny, and he's you know, he has great anecdotal
comments and he's just himself right now, he's allowed to
do that because he's more well known and all this stuff.
But a lot of these networks are making a mistake
(25:56):
just giving like seven people or five people whatever it is,
everyone's betting analyst. They're all trying to the same thing,
and it's just a bunch of monotonous and it's not
interesting to the masses, and that's why it's not working
on the network level for the most part.
Speaker 2 (26:08):
Yeah, I mean, I this is gonna sound bad. I
don't really watch any of the pregame shows. I just
I can't get into them. I feel like, yeah, listen,
you and I are in this space. We pay attention everything.
Are you learning anything from many of those guys? Are
they giving out game him?
Speaker 3 (26:23):
Right?
Speaker 2 (26:23):
So I'm not in on that, But like I mean,
but for instance, my process. So the first two bets
I made for week eight, and both the the lines
have gone both against me early this week, right, So
I saw Packers Jags. I took Packers minus four and
a half and I took Niners minus five after their
loss to the Chiefs against the Cowboys coming off the buy.
Now the Niners one probably could bite me in the ass.
(26:44):
If Deebo Samuel I figured I didn't know he was
that sick, and then money in the hospital, I'm like,
oh shit, well that's not great, Jennings. I expect him back.
We know why you's done. But I expect the Niners
to bounce back. And I think schematically Kyle Shanahan's a
nightmare for Mike Zimmers defense, even if they get Parsons back.
But the line's going against me. The other one is
the Packers. I just I don't believe in this Jaguars defense.
(27:06):
I bet against them multiple times this year. They are
total garbage. However, is there a letdown going on the road?
But both lines have gone against me, But I'm already
pot committed to those. I'm just curious for your process.
Are you in early in the week better? And what's
your move if the lines go against it?
Speaker 3 (27:20):
It just depends, So I think taking a step away,
I think you've kind of pinpointed in a lot of
ways why the NFL can be beatable for more casual
sports betters, because it's very math driven, right, So much
like in the early two thousands with the poker world.
Similar timeline, the math guys came in to the betting
(27:41):
world and started being the shaping of the market. So
the eye test betters, if you will, they it's like
the moneyball concept, right, the old school scout like they
have an advantage because the math guys think one way
and they can't help themselves. They really can't. So like
I was, for example last weekend, I was really surprised
the Jaguars lines des as it did because usually there's
(28:02):
going to be buy back at some key numbers. So
with your example of the packers, like it won't go
that high, I don't think like they can't help themselves
for taking the ugly dogs, like they can't help themselves
on the PA Panthers now that Bryce Young is going
to start, like at some point they're going to take it.
But what happens is the market just is stubborn like that. However,
(28:23):
we do see blowouts, we do see one sided game,
so that's why the sharps have a really tough time.
And in the NFL, the game plans are very hard.
This is what made Belichick so hard for modelers because
one week he'd run forty five times. The next week
he'd throw forty five times. So I don't care what
the stats were in the past. It's really hard to
(28:45):
do projections for a guy like that because the pass
almost didn't matter with him. It's about he would choreograph
a game plan and find your weaknesses. And they always
said he'd make you play left handed, and you know,
things like that. It's really hard to project. Like I
used to say this about the SEC Championship game, but
you know this is prior to draftings and fando. It
(29:07):
was really hard for these sportsbooks to do props on
Georgia and Alabama wide receivers because they hadn't played in
the competitive game all season. It's like they would play
three quarters tops against That was when Tennessee was weak
and then Vanderbilt was weak. So it's like you take
stats of DeVante Smith and some of the Jalen Waddle
against like the first half in like maybe the half
(29:28):
of the third quarter against Vandy, and you're trying to
do props against Georgia, Like I mean, doing a total
in that game is hard enough. How do you do
like props? So it's really that's why so the NFL,
some teams will lay it lay down, like you said,
the flatdown spot and all this stuff, so it comes
I think all that means it's really hard for the
math modelers and it's just kind of open season and
(29:51):
the market may not be that tight in the NFL.
Sure we're gonna have upsets like we did the first
x amount of weeks, but it's starting to even itself out.
We kind of know what the deal is with like
the Browns, although now they're aging quarterbacks, and we know
where some of these teams are. Like, we just had misconceptions,
like we thought the Jags were good because opening week
they really should have beat the Dolphins. Yeah, but they
only lost by three in a fluky outcome. And it's
(30:11):
been downhill since. So we had to get hit over
the head a couple of times chasing what we saw
the week one with Jacksonville. And now we realize just
how bad they are and we're not going to overreact to,
you know, a London win over New England.
Speaker 2 (30:22):
So the Jags, I know everybody's going to point to, oh,
well the Jags, they were just in London for two weeks,
are going to be exhausted. There's basically no data that
backs that up. I mean, it sounds good, right, and
I'm sure other people will say it, but there's no
data that says coming off two weeks in London and
blah blah blah. But some stuff that's out there, like
Jordan Love just destroys zone defenses like you cannot zone
Jordan Love. He will shred you. He's arguably the best
(30:45):
quarterback the numbers say against his own. All Jacksonville does
is play zone and I'm sure you saw Cam Robinson
with the concussion and then he's got the long flight
back from London. I'm guessing he's a no go this week.
The left tackle and you know, we know the Packers
are top ten in pressure rate and they don't blitz lot.
This just nothing lines up for Jacksonville here, So I
don't know. I'm just curious, Doug, what are people seeing
(31:07):
that you'd see this?
Speaker 3 (31:08):
You brought this up. So let's go to the Jordan
Love thing. Are you talking more from a props standpoint,
a Packers team total or just the minus the points?
Speaker 2 (31:16):
Roger, I start with the side because I'm I don't
see any prop totals out yet, do you No?
Speaker 3 (31:21):
But you kind of know what it'll be roughly, right, Yeah,
And so even with the strong betting angle like you have,
there's gonna be some variants. Like I was heavy on
Gino Smith last week against the Falcons. Right, when Gino
has a clean pocket, he can thrive, and we saw
that against the Lions. We saw that in some other
games as well. He's been he's been awesome. But remember
(31:42):
they had a defensive touchdown then they had the big
lead they were protecting. So I lost on his overpassing yards.
He only had like two hundred and ten or so,
but he had, you know, that huge touchdown right before halftime,
So you had that, you went over one and a
half passing touchdowns. But I guess what I'm saying is
the variants. Even when the matchup is favorable and they
play well, sometimes the game script can go a certain
(32:03):
way where things don't play out, you know necessarily like
they quote unquote should And that's the same thing that
happens in the Packers games, right. You know the first
four weeks, all these Sharps were fading the Chiefs because
they were losing the box score and they were barely covering.
It's like, yeah, they barely beat the Ravens in Week one.
Lively's toe was on the line, but they were also
(32:24):
up ten and if they had just gotten a first down,
they were playing sort of prevent victory a little, so
they could easily won by ten. So there's a different way.
And then they didn't look that great in some other games.
A Chargers game, they were, you know, just messing around,
playing with their food, and they won by exactly seven.
Could have easily lost the game. Yeah, so a lot
of people just get kept fading the Chiefs. But again,
these other teams, and this is where I think being
(32:44):
a sports fan like yourself and knowledgeable about sports and
more than just being a fan, I mean you're connected
and you know this stuff, Like you know, the Chiefs
are playing the long game and they're getting Teams are
allowed to change and get better. That's why, frankly, a
lot of these math modelers in the NFL used last
year's stats as a baseline. So even this juncture of
(33:05):
the season, even week twelve, like last year's stats are
part of their projections because they want larger sample size,
and so they use a lot of the individual stats
because teams change. Obviously, some player personnel.
Speaker 2 (33:16):
But that's tough Chiefs Doug, right, I mean, Pacheco's gone,
Rice is gone. Kelsey doesn't even look like he looked
last year. He doesn't like. The Chiefs are really befuddling
to me because I will maintain Doug and you can
feel for it. I don't think they're a great football
team right now. I know they're undefeated and the defense
is unbelievable, but offensively they don't scare anybody.
Speaker 3 (33:37):
I don't know what they deal with Mahomes. They do
with Mahomes, don't they scare some people.
Speaker 2 (33:42):
I don't look at the receivers. He's trot now, like honestly,
I mean the Raiders. You know this Raiders is interesting.
Let's talk about that game so instantly. This moves up.
Chiefs are huge favorites. They just dismantle the Niners. But
of course some people want to mention. Hey, remember in
the offseason when the Raiders did that voodoo doll thing
and making fun Ofatrick Mahomes with the Kermit the frog
whatever it was, and Mahomes said, oh, well, we'll worry
(34:03):
about that later in the season. Again, I don't know
how you factor that into your handicapping. But Patrick Mahomes
has had a down year. I think he's tied for
the league leading interceptions. If ever, there was a game
where he's just going to be like, Oh, I'm going
ham on you guys, We're going to go for forty.
It feels like maybe this is the spot, unless you
don't think Casey's even capable of that.
Speaker 3 (34:24):
I do think they're capable. Yeah, I mean they look,
they kind of manhandled the Saints in that one game,
and they had that pick on the goal line too.
But that Saints win isn't as impressive as we thought
it was at the time. No, yeah, I would say
I was looking at the Raiders plus ten and then
the whole Kermit the Frog thing he got me off
of it. I do. I backed it in where it's
(34:46):
like I don't have to bet the game like in
my Pickham league. In my Pickham leagues, I'll take the
plus ten in my contest, I have to come up
with five.
Speaker 2 (34:53):
So I kind of figure it out the toughest part.
Speaker 3 (34:55):
But we have no buys this week if I remember correctly,
so that we have no.
Speaker 2 (34:57):
Buys and no London game, which is nice.
Speaker 3 (35:00):
Yeah, So look, it's been hard man. Like last week,
I had like two sides. That that's all I did, Like,
I just didn't like the card. I had a million.
Speaker 2 (35:08):
Let me guess you loved Seattle, right.
Speaker 3 (35:11):
I did that team total and over, but then I
lost the game over too, so I split that.
Speaker 2 (35:16):
Yeah, I had two and three in the contest that
the two I loved were layups automatic, and then the
other three just kind of flekey stuff. And then like
an idiot, I went against Mahomes with the Niners, and
you know, let me ask you. Deebo Samuel practices all week, Okay,
no restriction is nothing, He's fine, and then he shows
up to the game sick, plays three plays and is
out like the people expecting sanfre and like myself to
(35:39):
do well in that when obviously Debo's a huge part
of the game plan and then poof, he's gone after
three plays, like just logistically, oh my gosh, that's a shot.
He's like your team leader. He's the first guy out
of the tunnel with Trent Williams. I mean, and he's
got pneumonia. You can't even play. You know, it's bad
when Deebo Samuel can't get on the field like that.
To me was just that's brutal.
Speaker 3 (35:58):
But some of these into you don't let that affect you.
You just got to let that go when well, okay, two.
Speaker 2 (36:03):
Weeks ago, Michael Pittman, how about Michael Pittman two weeks ago, Hey, Wednesday,
looks like he said it toward ir Sunday catches the
game when he touchdown pass? What the fuck is that?
Speaker 3 (36:11):
I don't know, man, that was a really outlier situation.
But the NF, look, there's no there's no teeth to
the penalty. Like I mean, the NFL is trying to
get them to do it, but there's no punishment. So
like like Cam Rising, like there's no punishment. Oh gosh,
Kyle Whittingham not doing anything with that injury. Now finally,
you know, a week ago they finally announced that he's
done for the year. But every week it was like
panda watch, And so what are you supposed to do
(36:33):
as a gambler, Yeah, when it's just this, you know,
is he or is he not playing? And but there's
no ramifications or consequences. So I don't blame the coach either.
If he's that Gamesman should help. Gamesmanship helps with the
opposing teeth.
Speaker 2 (36:46):
Let me ask you two more Chargers Saints. So this
is one of those weird spots. We've seen two of
them this season where one team's coming off extra rest
from Thursday, and that would be the Saints they got destroyed,
and the others coming off a short rest the Chargers
on one night football right.
Speaker 3 (37:02):
The other one was Giant Seattle, right, yes, yeah, and
Seattle got magnified like no other and the other pining
quarterback for the Saints.
Speaker 2 (37:09):
Well that's so that's the only hang up. But as it,
just because I'm a moron, I was like, you know what,
let me just go ahead and grab the Chargers minus
seven and a half. If they find out that there's
no car and Olave's not back. We know Shaheed's done.
We don't know about Taysom Hill. Like the Saints are
just a mass unit and we know they can't stop
the run. I mean the Eagles read everybody runs all
(37:29):
over them. I I mean Kareem Hunt came off the
sofa and ran for a buck twenty or whatever. I
see harball just slow twenty to seven kind of game,
twenty to six, whatever it is.
Speaker 3 (37:40):
But I think it could be a shootout if it's
car or even if it's Jake Hayner, I think it
can be a shootout.
Speaker 2 (37:46):
Why are you reading shootout?
Speaker 3 (37:47):
What? Because the Saints are going to give up points
right away. I know what you mean by Harbor is
going to want to run on them. But you can
have chunk plays as well, and I think the Saints
have enough weapons Kamara and still like if you just
you see a competent quarterback, rattlers not good like if
Jake Hayner played, I think they can put up a
lot of points. I really do.
Speaker 2 (38:07):
Interesting so, but we don't know who the starter.
Speaker 3 (38:10):
Is because of the rest advantage and things like that.
Speaker 2 (38:12):
Like you said, have you fired on this game at all?
Speaker 3 (38:14):
No? No, this is a card I hate now. I
hated last week too and ended up being you know,
prophetic on that because I didn't do well, like I
didn't like the card, didn't like anything. I usually do
my best in October November because the math guys get
sort of solidified, and I think there's situational handicapping like
you were talking about. Sometimes the cards is not that favorable.
Like my favorite play this week is the Jets and
(38:36):
Patriots over forty.
Speaker 2 (38:37):
Oh dear goodness, gracious the Jets. I can't that's my
team and I can't even watch them, Doug, So don't.
Speaker 3 (38:44):
You forty one? Like, don't you think the offense is
like needs to get right? Like don't you think they
need a breakout sort of performance and the Patriots defense
is the perfect kind of you know, prescription for that.
Speaker 2 (38:59):
I do wonder and again this no math involved. Mayo
goes and calls out his team as soft. Belichick then
goes on somewhere and says, you can't call your players
offt that's that's not right. I don't know whether it's
going to be a mutiny in the locker room or
it's gonna wake guys up. So I think nothing.
Speaker 3 (39:15):
Do you think that like they're capable of playing better
if they tried it harder. I just don't think they're good.
Speaker 2 (39:19):
So we jet the Jets. They could be down four
guys in the secondary, and Drake may has actually done
kind of well.
Speaker 3 (39:26):
Well, I think I think the Patriots, well, that's why
I like the over. I don't want to lay it
with the Jets. I think we're gonna see some points.
I don't think the Patriots call them soft, call them great,
Like I don't think their defense is good, so they're
like it's like telling me if I you know, I
cannot dunk, so I go try to dunk and I
don't get there, and it's like you call me soft,
Like I'm not gonna all of a sudden be able
to dunk right because I'm mad, Like I don't think
(39:48):
they can play better, because I don't think they're good.
Speaker 2 (39:50):
I think I saw a stat though they they've had
seven games and seven different offensive line combinations, like they're
just a mess, trading judeon bar Moore's stuff, like they
don't have any I.
Speaker 3 (40:00):
Thought they gave up their those defensive guys. But but
the when when Brissette was playing, the opposing teams knew
that he couldn't throw the ball. So now that Drake May,
I mean frankly, he'll turn the ball over and that
helps it over too. So like the the he's a
the line got bet up. I think from thirty eight
to like forty two, and then there's buyback, like I
think this thing could have like fifty to fifty five points, Like,
(40:21):
I mean, you need to get right on offense. And
it's another week of practice with Devonte Adams and things
like that well.
Speaker 2 (40:26):
Wayne Adams has a hamstring. He may not go this
week because the.
Speaker 3 (40:29):
Show next week totally banged up. So very yeah, let
me ask you, I think those guys can score on him.
Speaker 2 (40:35):
So like the old school guys you referenced earlier in
the podcast, they will probably look at this spot and see, ooh,
divisional rematch, okay outdoors Automatically, the divisional rematches historically go under.
I don't have the ats in front.
Speaker 3 (40:50):
Of me, but and we think that's right.
Speaker 2 (40:53):
We have one that.
Speaker 3 (40:56):
I think it's the straight mat is using output and
data points from when Jacoby Brissett was playing. So I
think those low scores, those inept offensive outputs went into
that fact. And I just think it's a completely different team.
I wouldn't even consider the offensive numbers from those weeks
that Brisset was the quarterback. I just won't even consider it.
(41:18):
It's a completely different team as far as I'm concerned.
Speaker 2 (41:20):
So that that's your favorite total, is there a side
that you've kind of narrowed down?
Speaker 1 (41:26):
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Speaker 3 (41:38):
It's really hard to lay the lumber with Denver.
Speaker 2 (41:42):
I don't know. I don't think it's that I don't
think it's that hard.
Speaker 3 (41:45):
I mean, voters should not be laying that kind of points.
Speaker 2 (41:48):
But that was what everybody said last week against the Saints,
and it's like, no, no, no, look at the matchup.
Speaker 3 (41:53):
It's the Saints.
Speaker 2 (41:54):
They're not right.
Speaker 3 (41:56):
Carolina's bad and Bryce Young's bad and that's like my
I think that's go on my tombstone down the road.
I was the only person just from the from the
highest hilltop I can get is Bryce Young is not
an NFL quarterback?
Speaker 2 (42:07):
Did you? Uh well, I guess they're not out yet.
But prop numbers on defensive touchdown for the Broncos gotta
go high. I mean, honestly, it feels like Shortan's probably
gonna get one the pressure. Yes, I mean, this is
just tough.
Speaker 3 (42:21):
But let me I will say, we've seen quarterbacks get
better a little bit when they've been able to see
the game from a different angle on the sideline and
just you know, whether it's Dalton's is saying, hey, the
small bites, take what the defense gives you. Things like that,
Although he was terrible last week, but maybe he's gonna
be a little bit better because he has a high
football like you, and maybe there's upside there. He's just tiny,
(42:44):
that's my issue with him. I never questioned his his
you know, aptitude from a from a reading defenses thing,
but he's regressed in the NFL and he's just he's
not an NFL quarterback. He's just too small. It's just
that simple. But I would look there. There's no like
dogs that are jumping off the page for me.
Speaker 2 (43:01):
You would look where Denver or Carolina?
Speaker 3 (43:04):
Denver, Yeah, Denver. I think the Jets plus seven's worth
a look as well. I just mind plus seven the Jets. Sorry,
I'm sorry. The Patriots plus seven ill Patriots interesting at home.
But the Jets just need this game too much. It's
like too important to them.
Speaker 2 (43:21):
How about this one. Let's go to Bears Washington. You've
got the injury thing to Jaden Daniels. So there's a
report that Daniels did not practice today, and I think
they said we'll see Friday. But if you read Ian
Rapaport's tweet, he wrote, it's trending as if Mariota will
get to start. Now you can read the tea leaves
(43:43):
in that and say, oh, it's gonna be Mariota. They
have a huge divisional matchup with the Giants next week
that that means more than this Bears game. And I
I mean, again, Doug, this is just kind of a guest,
but I don't think Daniels is gonna go Remember the
RG three stuff, he had, the injuries, they forced him
out there, it ended horribly. I think that Washington is
cautious here, and I'm on the Bears here.
Speaker 3 (44:06):
I would go the other way. I just think it's
going to be a strong effort game from Washington. Bears
have won three straight. I don't think they're that good.
The problem is Washington defense isn't good, so the Bears
have capitalized on facing the bad defenses on their schedule
of the last three weeks. Yeah, but Washington's just like
the fourth one. Uh so that's a little bit. I
(44:28):
don't think their coaching staff's really good, so I don't
know if they're taking advantage of it. Unless they had
a bunch of injuries they had to get healthy. Obviously
that the buy can serve as a huge asset, or
it can disrupt a win streak. Too. I like this
Washington team, but it's just Jane Daniels, Like I do
think a guy like Mariota at this juncture of his career,
like there there could be like he could be much
(44:49):
better now, Like there is reason for guys to get better.
And if it's just one of those things where you like,
look at Flacca, I mean he was good before, but
so much of this game is mental and iq I
mean Adon Manning's last year in Denver, right, And so
if Mariota has gotten better and just learned, like Sam
Darnold's a great example, right, He's just become more knowledgeable
(45:11):
for the position, and he can anticipate more things than
he could before, and therefore he's not reacting, he's anticipating.
And so if the game is slowing down for a
guy like Mariota, there's no reason he can't be like
a decent QB if he's got obviously the mobility as well,
and he doesn't have to do much if he's got
good weapons and just you know, kind of just it's
all the cliches of football. Make sure every drive ends
(45:33):
with a kick and blah blah blah. But I'm I'm
a big believer, whether it be college football within a
season or NFL within a season, or or like people
are allowed to get better, Like yes, we have our
first impressions, but that doesn't mean it's different. Like you
don't get to this level of sports, whether it's the
NFL or and be at whatever by being like a chump. Right,
So if a guy you know, yes, for every we
(45:55):
have the JaMarcus Russells of the world, and we have
some other busts, but usually you have a competitive That's
why teams that get blown out you want to bet
on in the next week is that week of practice.
They're buttoned up their competitive dudes. They're elite athletes, Like
you're gonna get a good effort or at least preparation
all week. So I do believe that Mariota could be
a lot better at this juncture in stam Donold versus
like three years ago, four years ago.
Speaker 2 (46:17):
You did reference the Bears getting healthy off the by
So in week six in London they were down three
defensive backs and looks like Stevenson is back, Brisker will
have cleared concussion protocol, and their secondary has been pretty
damn good. Now, as you alluded to, they played crap quarterbacks,
but you put Johnson Byered Brisker Steven that that's a
pretty great combo. And I, I mean, I feel pretty
(46:41):
good about about my bear side two and a half.
Speaker 3 (46:44):
Not great, I mean agree that Daniels probably isn't playing.
Like I'm with you on that.
Speaker 2 (46:50):
I guess last one, Doug, you can laugh. So the
New York Giants go to Pittsburgh Monday night. It is
the biggest spread post Ben Roethlisberger that Tomlins laid. The
other two big spreads they did not cover. I can't
believe this, but I think I'm going to be backing
Daniel Jones. I think on Monday at football.
Speaker 3 (47:13):
I'm with you in terms of like, oh lot, No, No,
I'm not betting. I'm just saying, like I understand where
you're coming from. My biggest concern is just the happy
feed against that pass rush. Right yeah, well yeah, he's
played well in a couple of games, and frankly, like
the Browns have a decent you know, can put pressure
on the quarterback and then they almost beat the Eagles
(47:34):
and the Commander's game he played while they should have,
but that's a bad defense. The Cowboys have a bad
defense and they couldn't even get the end zone. I
I wonder if like that offense can just be completely
disrupted by a by a Steelers team, and that that
defense man, Like I was shocked they lost the Cowboys,
Like I like the Cowboys made that Cowboys completely outplayed
(47:54):
them that game, frankly, and other than that, like this
defense is a disruptor. And but I'm not in a
rush to lay six and a half. I still think
Russ is like so so although he looked okay, he
throws at the there's going to be an adjustment, like
the rust, like some of the short hops have to
go away.
Speaker 2 (48:09):
You think, well, I'm not in a rush to back
the Giants, but I need five in the contest that
I've only got right, No.
Speaker 3 (48:14):
I know, I look, I Trice look. I'm also like
handicapping the NBA and all this crazy stuff. I'm looking
at a few things in the NFL. The over I'm
surprised has come down a little bit after going up
a lot that New England Jets game, Like that's the
only game that I think is a strong bet for me.
I'm warming up to the Packers for sure. Like, but again,
(48:35):
but this talks about the market. The market has the
buy back at five and now it's bought back from
four and a half to four. Why because they can't
help themselves. It's a math again, it's the math thing.
They're like, well, the line should be this, I made it, this,
I have to bet it. And in their defense, they
make money doing this, right, like, they are profitable, and
(48:56):
so they have to stick to their math because they're
going to to go six and four, six and five,
and it's gonna, you know, whatever it is, right seven
and five, and we're just trying to go four and
three and two in a contest or maybe just two
and one on bets and we have our rightea. So
while we may be right on that Packers game, they're
not good. They're not about to deviate from their math
(49:20):
and start doing something that has been working for so long.
So like, think about it, like them t blackjack, right,
like they know if the count is this, they're just
gonna do it. And you're sitting there like, why would
you hit twelve against a four or something, And it's like, well,
the math said, whatever it is, you know, So I
think they're gonna do it their way. But that's the
beauty of the NFL. Like that's the one nice thing
(49:40):
is the sharp money keeps the market from getting too
crazy unless there's a significant injury with quarterback or something
like that. But like, there's gonna be there's gonna be
resistance on the Panthers. Just watch there. You know. Obviously
there was an adjustment when when Darnold's officially out and
now what's gonna happen. So it's already come back. It
hit ten and a half, I think, and now it's
(50:01):
solid ten everywhere. Maybe it didn't hit ten and a half,
but it's it's a solid ten everywhere. And I just
think as soon as a book, you know, because the weekend,
the weekend's gonna come and the public's gonna come in heavy,
and then they're going to try ten and a half.
But the sharps will bite right away because that's just
how they are. Yeah, right, and it works for.
Speaker 2 (50:19):
Them only players. Go ahead, check that out. Very cool.
Speaker 3 (50:24):
Listen.
Speaker 2 (50:24):
A lot of people leave ESPN and it's like, oh man,
they're going to get lost. Doug is crushing it and
continued success with my friend hopefully will you be at
the super Bowl or nowhere?
Speaker 3 (50:33):
Uh no, I mean I was obviously here in town
last year, so I have no plans this year. I
probably should be looking into that and doing that because
at least I'll go for the week. Is you know,
I'm wearing the entrepreneurial hat during all this as well. Yeah,
I'm learning a lot about distribution and sales and just
the mechanics now. Fortunately, my business partner has like basically
my career from a sales standpoint, so he's done network
(50:57):
sales and all this stuff, so he understands all these
acts and m's for you know, online videos and all
this stuff, but CPMs and all the distribution lingo. But
I've learned a lot and talking with more, like we
had a really big call today and like I understand
what they want from a content standpoint and in a
minute video and district so I'm learning a lot and
(51:18):
how the sausage is made, which I think has made
me better on air. We'll see, but.
Speaker 2 (51:25):
For years get not.
Speaker 3 (51:27):
Necessarily better hate together, but it's it's a slow grind
for sure, And there's obviously like you wonder and you
miss you missed the bells and whistles of an ESPN
for sure, and just being back on campus and interacting.
Like I loved. Campus life is just be working with
a bunch of smart, cool people like you know that
from Fox. But the entrepreneurial life is cool too, And
I can go anywhere whenever I want and you know,
(51:48):
do whatever I want and maybe go back home to
LA and stuff like that. So everything has its trade off.
But you know, this has been something that you know
a lot of people do this. A lot of people
do this conventionally in their own industries. Right, You're your work,
core life for a while and then you go do
your your your you know, your launch, your own your venture.
So it's it's just not commonly done in the TV
space or whatever. But it's been fun. Hopefully we can
(52:09):
kind of continue to materialize and get some momentum here
with these announcements. Will be coming. We'll be coming soon,
all
Speaker 2 (52:15):
Right, man, Thanks a lot, Doug, you got it, But
thank you.
This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
What is up straight firefam, It's me Jason McIntyre. Straight
Fire for Thursday, October twenty fourth. We have a phenomenal
pod A just a tremendous guest. If you like gambling,
you want to get smarter, you gotta listen to this one.
Doug Kazarian, formerly of ESPN, now he started his own shop.
(00:31):
He's an entrepreneur. He goes over some of his awesome
NFL draft hits. I mean, we're talking big, big payouts.
He's a sharp guy. I believe he went to an
IVY League school. Was a water polo guy. He's been
on the pod before. You guys all like it. Good stuff. Obviously,
I was locked in on the NBA last night, but
because Doug and I had such a good conversation on
(00:52):
a it's a long one. I don't have time, unfortunately,
to dive into some of the Just a tremendous NBA
fair that went down last night. My pacers, can I
call them my pacers? A nice comeback victory over Detroit.
It was a good night in the association. Poor bulls.
I heard there already. They've hashtagged it salute the flag.
(01:14):
They want to go for Cooper flag. They want to
just be awful and get Cooper flag, which is a
smart business model. I'll be brief. We talk. I don't
know if Doug and I talk about Monday Night football, sorry,
Thursday night football, but you guys, I tell it on
the pod. I'm on RAMS plus three. I'm upset that
I missed three and a half. Would not be shocked
if some two and a half's popped up today. A
lot of stuff that we've covered, you know, teams that
(01:35):
just played the Lions, teams that played on on Sunday
and then had to travel for a Thursday game across
multiple time zones, like it's not an easy task this
week from Minnesota. Now, I don't think the Rams are
very good. There's a lot of rumors swirling. I'm not
sure what I believe, but I'm on the RAMS plus three.
Would not be shocked if they want outright. I'm not
(01:56):
submitting in the contest, but I am. I'm on the
plus three And without further ado, let's get to our
interview Doug Kazarian, who started his own shop called Players Only.
Speaker 1 (02:11):
You know a guy Jason likes to think he knows
everything when it comes to sports.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
I know what sports fans want, but for.
Speaker 3 (02:18):
Everything he doesn't. He knows a guy who does. Let's
just say I know a guy who knows a guy
who knows another guy.
Speaker 2 (02:27):
All right, let's welcome into straight fire. He's been on
the pod once before. You know him from ESPN, from
his new betting venture Only Players. Doug Kazarian, Doug, how
you doing?
Speaker 3 (02:37):
Man? Good to be with you, man, I know the
life gets in the way, especially you with a family,
but you know, we don't communicate enough that I was
thinking about when you reached out for the pod, I
was like, gosh, I've just fallen off the grid so
much with so many people, so I'm really psychosic to
chop it up for a little bit.
Speaker 2 (02:53):
Yeah, and you'd like to ruffle some feathers in the
gambling space, shall we say? You had an awesome hit
around the NFL Draft. Was it two years ago or
three years ago?
Speaker 3 (03:03):
Maybe?
Speaker 1 (03:03):
With that.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
Tell the audience what that one was again?
Speaker 3 (03:06):
I yeah, it was an NFL Draft prop And so
basically you know when the betting space was even newer
back then, because right it was twenty twenty one and
legalization started at twenty eighteen, and not many people knew
that I had this betting background because I had done
Sports Center, Conventional Sports Center, and conventional sports talk radio
ESPN for so long that man, you thought I was
just like a talking head that pivoted to the betting space.
(03:28):
But I was like, no, I've been you know, I
had a bookie in high school and like then, I
had worked in Vegas for seven years before that, and
you know, I had kept my connections and things like that.
So coming back out to Vegas with ESPN, it was
great because I could talk betting, bet myself and get
you know, lean on my betting team and my sources
(03:48):
and all my connections in the space. But yeah, there
was a draft prop and it was just a perfect storm.
You know, we talk about it all the time with
the draft, how there's sometimes tweeterers in terms of positions.
And there was a guy named Tyson Campbell, who NFL
fans kind of know who he is with the Jaguars now,
but he was climbing draft boards that week, so a
(04:08):
week a week to go for the drafts. The drafts
on a Thursday, so starting like Friday before his for example,
his over under at CIRCA went from sixty two and
a half to forty six and a half, then like
thirty eight and a half, So was over under kept moving.
So you know, he was a cornerback and played, you know,
but he was tall, and so what happened was the
(04:31):
over under moved. But other indexes don't necessarily move as well,
and he was in a he was in a index
bet of safety. And so we see this more with
pass rushers, Like some guy's a linebacker and he projects
as a pass rusher and he's an edge rusher and
things like that. You play a certain position in college,
but that doesn't necessarily translate over to the NFL. So
(04:54):
I noticed on the Monday night of the draft week
that he was listed in a safety index and he
was one hundred to one, much like so many people
are because they had a minus money favorite. It was Mowrigg.
Woodard was supposed to go to the Raiders. He's out
of TCU and like the middle of the first round,
and then there was another guy out of I believe
you see f for Notre Dame. There's two guys and
(05:14):
then it was everyone else was like one hundred and one. Well,
he's a cornerback, not a safety technically, but he was
projecting as a safety like three months out when they
made the index bet and they just never fixed it.
So what happens in a lot of these is so anyway,
So I bet a bunch at him at one hundred
and one. I was able to get down at the
Kiosk machine at nine and they didn't. This is over
(05:35):
like two and a half hours. By the way, they
could have moved the odds, they just didn't. And whether
that's personnel issue, like I didn't really care.
Speaker 2 (05:43):
Did you bet it at one place or multiple?
Speaker 3 (05:45):
So no, I have Blagio and Aria. So I talked
about it, and I talked to my my main betting
partner is a huge draft gurus, so we were talking
some more about it, and I was like, you know,
I'm gonna go back and bet more and just kind
of went all not all in, but I bet a
few thousand because it was like such good value and
I had so many positions by then on the draft.
I do well in the draft every year on the Draft,
(06:06):
and I think it's surfaced since then is really tough
for odds makers because it's information driven and it's not
a sport where it's just like this point spread and random.
It's you can be so wrong with your original line
post right. Just even the year that Trey Lance it
went from like plus four hundred to minus three hundred
back to plus money. There's such volatility in the movement
(06:30):
based on like one tweet or one comment or one
podcast by mel kiper Jr. The built in buffer hold
percentage for the house doesn't offset how wrong they can
be because aside from like maybe Week eighteen or preseason,
you don't see line moves in the NFL like this weekend,
you know, quarterback change from an adult in de Bright.
It's only gonna move like a point. It's not gonna
(06:51):
go from minus seven to plus seven. But that doesn't happen.
We see it in the NBA tonight with both Joel
Embid and Paul George out, but it's gone from like
two and a half to three, like this is like
minus five hundred, like you know, plus three it's just
nuts and Trayvon Walker like he was like a field
bet one of the books out here about a month
out and then the end of being the number one pick.
(07:12):
So that's where like the players have an advantage and
the operators. Let's face it, the oddsmakers are just not
that good at it because they don't put in the
work and they don't do as much work as the
betters do because it's they have a lot of other
stuff on their plate as well.
Speaker 2 (07:26):
Yeah, so we've had a lot of gabblers come on
the pod and talk about getting banned at certain casinos
in Vegas. I don't think as much offshore they do banning.
But when you hit that at Blagio, were you then
banned from going in there and placing draft bets?
Speaker 3 (07:40):
No, So it's an MGM property. So I am at
like six books right now. I can only bet like
five dollars on the app a couple of them. I
can go in person and bet more like a regular
straight wager amount. So it's just like they make people
do that because it's time consuming. People really don't do that.
There's others I can at all. I just it's just
annoying and it is what it is. But that's what
(08:03):
people need to understand. And by the way, I end
up winning two hundred ninety seven thousand on that Tyson
Campbell situation.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
Yeah, I saw that written about in the vase.
Speaker 3 (08:11):
So many crazy things had to happen, like a mugick
woodard had to fall, and then there had to be
no other safeties, and then the corner like he was
like the eighth corner taken. And it just so happened
that Urban Meyer had recruited amount of high school back
when he was at Ohio State. And then Meyer's now
the coach of the Jags. So if it wasn't Meyer,
the Jags, like another safety would have gone because like
another safety went like three picks later. So probably the
(08:34):
true odd should have been like twenty five to one,
thirty to one. But that's like those are the odds
in an index when you have a minus money favorite
and he's like the fifth long shot.
Speaker 2 (08:41):
Or whatever, so it has incredible hit.
Speaker 3 (08:44):
The we're pro you hear a lot like, oh well,
those buildings on the strip aren't don't go up because
you know the sport, they're up because of the casino.
So the whole percentage, the whole percentage is quite low,
especially in Nevada like other states. Obviously betters aren't his experience,
but it's like four and a half percent. And I
(09:05):
talked to a Buddies and Odds maker. I go, what
would you what would the whole percentage be if sharps
could bet what they wanted within reason, Like they'll take
a sharp bet some books somebody can't at all, and
then they'll adjust and then it's like within reason there's limit,
and he goes, it'd probably go to like three percent,
and I go, okay, And then what if like harlays
were never invented, Like what if no one had any parlays?
(09:26):
And he goes, probably zero percent. So like that's why
the DraftKings of the world that like the it's really
like it's it's not like the math isn't as clean
as it is. And like the Rolett wheel, Right, the
Relett wheel math, you're getting certain payout, you're getting even
money on red or even money on black, and the
(09:46):
house is getting the other color and two greens. Okay,
Like that math is inarguable, right, the Relett wheel, it's inarguable. Right,
like the the the the craps table, Like we know
the math of the dice blackjacket's not quite as clean,
but we know the math for the most part, right,
So in sports, there's just a wider range of outcomes, right,
(10:07):
It's just not as simple as these x amount of
numbers on a rolet wheel. So if you know what
you're doing to an a certain extent, or if you
just have a good season right, then you can make money.
And it's not that rigorous, especially like softer markets like
the WNBA and things like that, like the house, Like
they don't pay these odds makers a ton of money.
Like the smartest guys are on for the most part
(10:29):
or on this side of the counter, so it can
be done. Now. They're really good at like bookmaking for sure,
like they're experts. They're more experts at bookmaking than they
are like odds making, like they know how to like
a lot of their job titles are manager at risk
and they're good at bookmaking. They're good at like anticipating
certain sharp money like Tuesday of NFL week, how they
(10:50):
know where the sharp money is going to be, Like,
they're really good at bookmaking. To be an originator, a
line originator and post a line that no one else has,
like maybe a Summer League game like wimmin Yama's props
or something like that, there's no market for that pick.
That's really hard. Or to create a prop bet on
something that hasn't been created yet like I don't know,
Judge versus Otani in the World Series Homers or whatever
(11:13):
that is, Like line origination is hard, but that's the
advantage we have is they have to put up a
menu of a million bets and we can sneak in
and pick one and that's why they're getting plus one,
ten or whatever. So beating the number is not like
thoroughly impossible, especially because there's so many smart people out
on the betting space. There's so much information out there,
The analytics are out there. So if you've been doing
it a long time, hopefully the scar tissue and the
(11:36):
pain I've you know, learned the hard way over the
years has taught me a thing or two. But that's
why these books limit certain people's because it's not just
like printing money like it is slot machines or you know,
some of the card games in the casino floor.
Speaker 2 (11:50):
Yeah, so, I you know, are you at the point
where you know you mentioned WNBA and I see you
tweeting about the WNBA finals? Major League Baseball? Are you
where do you rank NFL.
Speaker 3 (12:01):
Week to week?
Speaker 2 (12:01):
Like Sunday games, Obviously everybody loves them. Everybody spends a
lot of time watching them. It's it's tough to have
a big edge in these and you do the contest
I'm assuming, right.
Speaker 3 (12:12):
Yeah, So last year I think I basically had my
best NFL season ever. I finished fourteenth and Circle Millions
fourteenth in Westgate. And that's the thing. You don't know
when you're gonna have your best season, so you want
to be in these contests. Now, am I a lifetime
sixty five percent better in the NFL? No? This year
I've actually crazy. I'm up like forty something units. I've
done well live waging, and this is all kind of transparent,
(12:34):
like we've post everything and everything's through our you know,
app and stuff. And I want to get the betting
space to a space where it's not just some guy
babbling what he's doing. It's like everything's tracked and all
this stuff. Like I was actually looking into it and
I still haven't really fully vetted it. But like you know,
like the Ernst and Young certifies the NBA draft, right,
oh yeah, yeah, not like a draft generator company, but
(12:56):
they put their brand on the NBA. So like I
would love to get my Mike my uh, you know,
records confirmed or validated by ernstin Young or something like that.
We can get to it like we're really in our infancy, right.
This is oh, certainly pop half of the first inning
of legal ized sports betting.
Speaker 2 (13:12):
What waite?
Speaker 3 (13:12):
Isn't there?
Speaker 2 (13:13):
And again I didn't get an invite to this. I
don't know if you're involved, but isn't there some I've
heard mentions of it of a contest in Vegas with
some of the perceived sharp NFL gamblers and they track
I guess their best three picks. I think it's maybe
a Las Vegas newspaper or website.
Speaker 3 (13:27):
Do you know what I'm talking about? Well, every there's
always been like newspapers and contest things like I'm a
I'm in a contest with v sin through Circa where
there's twenty five professional andy kappers have all been invited.
I've been in it three straight years. Yeah, I finished
top eight. That's why I got invited back each of
the last two years. You have to pick seven sides
their totals college and NFL against. That's it.
Speaker 2 (13:47):
That's the what I'm talking about.
Speaker 3 (13:48):
Somebody who's been on noon on Friday the circa lines
neon on Friday instead of like a stale line that
has to come out Wednesday likes. You know, some of
these NFL contests are yeah, I mean I'm you know,
I'm ninth place or something. Right now. I only won
one best bet, but you know, like I was in
first place with like three weeks to go a couple
of years ago, the first year of it. But it
happened like it.
Speaker 2 (14:09):
But doesn't that kind of fit your bill of shouldn't
like Ernst and Young validate the picks. Doesn't that count?
Speaker 3 (14:16):
I've done well in contests, Like two years ago, I
had two top five finishes in the William Hill College
Football contest one fifty fifty eight thousand dollars. It was great, right,
I two my five entries finished top five. I was
very close, Like first place was one hundred grand. I
was like I had like one last drive by wake
Forest game was crazy. So, but like, contests are just
sort of one aspect of sports betting, right yeah. And
(14:40):
then the whether it be the content space of podcast
TV shows right right? You know, written columns that's just
you know, one bet, best bet of the day, Like
no one makes one wager same amount, right, there's futures.
So what I did with my companies, I wanted to
simulate the sports betting experience, so like I wanted to
calculate and tally units on on futures in game, pre
(15:02):
game props, all this stuff where I can demonstrate, like
like I can't tell you how many people DM me
and saying what do I do? I have this eight
leg parlay, like what's and it's awesome, but like, but
I think that's where I'm flattered by people know that,
Like I know how to like figure that out, right, Like,
(15:23):
and that's stuff I want to do with you know,
we have a subscription service now, but we want to
evolve the sports better. That's our hope, right. And I
was talking to a guy at the dog park randomly
because he heard me finishing up a phone call, and
he was like, hey, I'm a poker player. I don't
know much about sports, but like how do you do this?
And he basically got me to think about it in
a different ways, like how do you make someone a
(15:43):
better sports better? And I'm and I'm just thinking, like,
you know, it's a great point because like the first
three things I would say are undoing bad three bad habits.
It's like, you know, the betting content is betting space
is so limited right now, if the content space, then
it's like the taut space, and like that's it, right,
There's so many other parallels from other industries you can
cross over, right, So, like we're doing a lot of
(16:05):
stuff kind of like golf instruction. Right, you don't just
learn how to hit one shot. The guy you want
your golf coach to like teach you how to you know,
help your you know, prove your stroke, your swing, and
then you can, you know, practice on your own and
do things. So like I'm created sort of a you know,
a flow chart or whatever where like I do individual
zooms with guys and things like that where I can
(16:27):
teach people like to how to undo and stop the
bad habits because that's really how I did it. You
just get hit over the head enough times you learn that.
Like that's the best thing. I mean, just a simple
question like ask, you know, they need to know what's
the better number in an NFL game? Is it minus
two and two and a half minus one twenty or
minus three plus one hundred? Like you just got to
(16:47):
know it's minus two and a half plus you know,
minus one twenty. Like, so it's just stuff like that,
Like there's an educational component to a lot of this
stuff rather than just like hey, take the Packers minus four,
my game of the year, pay me whatever, nine ninety nine. Like,
there's so many bet are things to do and to
evolve the space, and you just have to create the
infrastructure and then hopefully enough people are do it and
then I need to be you know, marketed and do
(17:08):
all that stuff. But that's what we're trying to do
a big picture.
Speaker 2 (17:11):
So I would ask you you said, there's two levels
to it. There's the content space and then there's the touts.
Which do you think you technically fall in? Because I think, well,
I want to make it.
Speaker 3 (17:21):
I want to do like three, four, five, six, I
want to have like eight, you know, a bunch of
different lanes, right, Like that's the whole point. I'm trying
to evolve this space into a world that's beyond this
like app A and B concept. It's like, okay, so
let me back up.
Speaker 2 (17:36):
So who And this is a tough one because like
who is saying there's content and touts? Is that like
the theme among the gamblings the.
Speaker 3 (17:44):
Tout world has existed forever, like the gym vice world
where you get people picks and stuff like that, right,
and then you sell it and then there's packaging like
that's just existed since the beginning of time. I mean
that's existed, and I would imagine the Wall Street world
right there. It's like boiler room tactics and things all
along those lines. Right, there's financial analysts, and then there's
like the content space, and there's different forms of the
content space. Right, there's podcast TV, but there's no other
(18:06):
sort like like poker pros. About five ten years ago,
I had heard and I know some that started doing
individual private lessons that there were CEOs and all these
people who do these high you know, they're like successful businessmen.
Instead of playing golf, right, they also do poker charity
events or just play poker every every Wednesday or every
(18:27):
other Wednesday with the guys, and they wanted to get
better at poker. So you can there's webinars on this stuff,
and there's YouTube channels you have to pay for to
just get better. Because obviously there's a million permutations with
poker in terms of like you know, the raising and
all that. Like, there's so much technique involved. It's like
kind of like golf. Right, you can have side hill
downhill live. It's not just hey, hit one hundred and
(18:48):
fifty yard shot. So in poker, like there's so much
nuance to how many other people are in the pot,
how much just left in your stack, the bidding, the raising,
all that stuff. So in sports there's so much different
layers to this as well. So I started to think
about with poker pros and they're getting hired at a
high rate by a few experts. I have people I
(19:10):
work with who are high end betters, and I can
help them evolve and they can glean some wisdom and
I can put together lesson plans and shared screens on
zooms and do all sorts of stuff. And I also
they have access to me too, so like on a
discord set, Like they don't have my some of them
don't have my cell, but they have my like discord
so we so they can ask me anything at any
time during throughout the week, during games and they're like,
(19:31):
hey this is going on, or hey I bet this
on my own, Like I'm doing that, Like what do
you think? So there's learned experiences like I've I've taken
golf lessons, There's millions of times I've texted my golf
guy like, hey, I shot this today, but I could
have done that, you know what would you? You know,
so there's always in your world too, where people there's
it's basically a consultant, right Like you can create and
(19:54):
then you create knowledge, build infrastructure where people can you know, learn.
It's like going from a yellow belt to a brown belt,
purple belt. You know. It's that kind of concept where
you can, you know, grow as a better if you're
new to this space or you're it's turning twenty one
and you want to help him, and there's all sorts
of ways to do this besides like the taut world
(20:16):
and then listen to this podcast.
Speaker 1 (20:19):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
the nation. Catch all of our shows at foxsports Radio
dot com and within the iHeartRadio app. Search FSR to
listen live.
Speaker 2 (20:32):
Yeah, so the biggest pushback would be, Okay, so let's
take you know, Adam Turnoff obviously Right Angle Sports good guy.
He's been on the podcast a bunch. So Right Angle
Sports releases their picks right and unless you're getting the notification,
the alert right before they release it, you're more than
likely going to miss their release. At I don't know.
(20:52):
Let's just say six and a half and then boom,
it's at seven and you now and can no longer
get the best number and you're shifted. So you might like,
that's the only problem I have with Well, I've never
paid for a tout service before, right, So I've.
Speaker 3 (21:03):
Talked to people like that who do influence the market,
the few out there, and I don't want to put
anyone on spot or bad. So I said, you're doing
it as service here, like you have to just charge
more and if it ends up being three people who
get your service and they cover the same nut, Right,
it's ten people at one dollar, right, you need to
charge five dollars for two people. Right, it's just that
(21:25):
to get the same ten dollars. Whatever it is. Right,
So I'm with you. Now, the NFL is a liquid
enough market where those numbers will come back at times
like I know what RAS has played and the market
will sometimes come back.
Speaker 2 (21:37):
But that's a good point. The market will come back.
But here's the thing. How long do you have to
sit staring at the screen to no it'll come back?
Speaker 3 (21:46):
Like they'll send out a release like Wednesday and like
Sunday morning and might come back. But you're right. If
you're not doing it instantaneously, it moves because the books,
like we talked about, flag those accounts. So I'm of
the belief that you have to do things in a
certain way and have a price point, but then you
also have to have a value add like I don't. Yes,
everyone who subscribes my stuff knows what picks I'm doing,
(22:09):
and I do him in a time, we weigh whatever.
But there's so much more to it. I just think
that's one aspect to it. All.
Speaker 2 (22:14):
Right, So let's take a line from this week. Let's
do a week eight line. Let's go Cincinnati and Philly.
So it looks like we're recording this Thursday, Wednesday afternoon.
It looks like there's some Eagles money maybe coming in, right,
So it was two and a half. I'm seeing some twos.
I see a one and a half at FanDuel. So somebody,
(22:37):
let's just say Joe Smith, who is an advantage gambler,
he's plus ev, he's multimillionaire, he gave out to his service.
Let's just say he did Eagles plus two and a half.
All of a sudden, the line comes down. But you
had a meeting, you had lunch with your wife. All
this stuff you missed it. It's not a one and
a half. It's like and that. I don't know how
you saw that other than like just saying, you know what,
(22:59):
I'm not going to have a life. I'm not going
to hang with my kids or coach my kids or
I just it's it's a really tough life. Like, be honest,
how many hours a day are you looking at the screen.
Speaker 3 (23:08):
So it's a great point. The one thing I do
say is I'm a bachelor, and I know you are
yourself included who are successful in their careers and successful
at home. So it's like two full time jobs, right,
like to be a parent and obviously you you know,
have a spouse who helps with the parenting and does
their full time parent as well. But if I don't
have that, like I can do a lot of the stuff.
But I also built a TV studio in my house,
(23:30):
so we're doing a lot of content with We're going
to announce some like any day now. But we have
like a bunch of deals. We've had to get the
contract sign everything, but we're going to be a third
content provider of betting content so we can do talkbacks
we can do all these like different Tetris pieces. So
we're in the content space as well, so like I mean,
(23:50):
you're old enough, we wear the same agent. Roughly, it's
like remember the old the Motley Fool, like they would
do sort of like a daily newsletter and it still
exists now, but it's just in a form but like
Wall Street Journal, right, like they have educational and they
have analytical stuff and they have a paywall as well,
and there's so that's kind of what we want to be.
And now they can be a third party, like partner
(24:12):
up with another outlet, so I can do betting content
that some of it's behind on our paywall site, but
some of it's just different. It's like, hey, I'm just
telling you what I'm hearing and it's kind of interesting content.
Hopefully that we can create for other outlets and do
other stuff because people need betting content. But they're slowly
realizing this is my other beef with the betting space
(24:34):
that you know, the invisible hand is going to always
work itself out, but people are realizing that they don't
have the horses to do this stuff in house. Like
there was this this mass likeush of just giving everyone
the title of betting analysts, which I was just like
so random, Like it's just like, how did how's you know?
(24:54):
Whereas like if you're watching CBS before kickoff on Sunday mornings,
like Bill Cower's there, and like all these people have
credentials and it's just like this talking he Like I
think the biggest mistake the betting space. And I don't
know if ESPN did it or who did it first,
but just I think people should have literally have been
as simple as just giving him a betting personality or
betting talent or just something that wasn't analysts, because I
(25:15):
think all these people get on the defensive and they're
trying to be so technical and they're trying to all
be the same person with their plays. It's just like,
just be like a betting talent or betting personality and
then they can do some of the gimmicky social media stuff.
I mean, I think Cousin sALS like the great example.
He's really funny, really knowledgeable about sports. He doesn't take
(25:35):
himself too seriously. He's not sitting there ever, describing the
value of a half point. He's just talking sports through
the lens of betting and he's a great listen because
he's funny, and he's you know, he has great anecdotal
comments and he's just himself right now, he's allowed to
do that because he's more well known and all this stuff.
But a lot of these networks are making a mistake
(25:56):
just giving like seven people or five people whatever it is,
everyone's betting analyst. They're all trying to the same thing,
and it's just a bunch of monotonous and it's not
interesting to the masses, and that's why it's not working
on the network level for the most part.
Speaker 2 (26:08):
Yeah, I mean, I this is gonna sound bad. I
don't really watch any of the pregame shows. I just
I can't get into them. I feel like, yeah, listen,
you and I are in this space. We pay attention everything.
Are you learning anything from many of those guys? Are
they giving out game him?
Speaker 3 (26:23):
Right?
Speaker 2 (26:23):
So I'm not in on that, But like I mean,
but for instance, my process. So the first two bets
I made for week eight, and both the the lines
have gone both against me early this week, right, So
I saw Packers Jags. I took Packers minus four and
a half and I took Niners minus five after their
loss to the Chiefs against the Cowboys coming off the buy.
Now the Niners one probably could bite me in the ass.
(26:44):
If Deebo Samuel I figured I didn't know he was
that sick, and then money in the hospital, I'm like,
oh shit, well that's not great, Jennings. I expect him back.
We know why you's done. But I expect the Niners
to bounce back. And I think schematically Kyle Shanahan's a
nightmare for Mike Zimmers defense, even if they get Parsons back.
But the line's going against me. The other one is
the Packers. I just I don't believe in this Jaguars defense.
(27:06):
I bet against them multiple times this year. They are
total garbage. However, is there a letdown going on the road?
But both lines have gone against me, But I'm already
pot committed to those. I'm just curious for your process.
Are you in early in the week better? And what's
your move if the lines go against it?
Speaker 3 (27:20):
It just depends, So I think taking a step away,
I think you've kind of pinpointed in a lot of
ways why the NFL can be beatable for more casual
sports betters, because it's very math driven, right, So much
like in the early two thousands with the poker world.
Similar timeline, the math guys came in to the betting
(27:41):
world and started being the shaping of the market. So
the eye test betters, if you will, they it's like
the moneyball concept, right, the old school scout like they
have an advantage because the math guys think one way
and they can't help themselves. They really can't. So like
I was, for example last weekend, I was really surprised
the Jaguars lines des as it did because usually there's
(28:02):
going to be buy back at some key numbers. So
with your example of the packers, like it won't go
that high, I don't think like they can't help themselves
for taking the ugly dogs, like they can't help themselves
on the PA Panthers now that Bryce Young is going
to start, like at some point they're going to take it.
But what happens is the market just is stubborn like that. However,
(28:23):
we do see blowouts, we do see one sided game,
so that's why the sharps have a really tough time.
And in the NFL, the game plans are very hard.
This is what made Belichick so hard for modelers because
one week he'd run forty five times. The next week
he'd throw forty five times. So I don't care what
the stats were in the past. It's really hard to
(28:45):
do projections for a guy like that because the pass
almost didn't matter with him. It's about he would choreograph
a game plan and find your weaknesses. And they always
said he'd make you play left handed, and you know,
things like that. It's really hard to project. Like I
used to say this about the SEC Championship game, but
you know this is prior to draftings and fando. It
(29:07):
was really hard for these sportsbooks to do props on
Georgia and Alabama wide receivers because they hadn't played in
the competitive game all season. It's like they would play
three quarters tops against That was when Tennessee was weak
and then Vanderbilt was weak. So it's like you take
stats of DeVante Smith and some of the Jalen Waddle
against like the first half in like maybe the half
(29:28):
of the third quarter against Vandy, and you're trying to
do props against Georgia, Like I mean, doing a total
in that game is hard enough. How do you do
like props? So it's really that's why so the NFL,
some teams will lay it lay down, like you said,
the flatdown spot and all this stuff, so it comes
I think all that means it's really hard for the
math modelers and it's just kind of open season and
(29:51):
the market may not be that tight in the NFL.
Sure we're gonna have upsets like we did the first
x amount of weeks, but it's starting to even itself out.
We kind of know what the deal is with like
the Browns, although now they're aging quarterbacks, and we know
where some of these teams are. Like, we just had misconceptions,
like we thought the Jags were good because opening week
they really should have beat the Dolphins. Yeah, but they
only lost by three in a fluky outcome. And it's
(30:11):
been downhill since. So we had to get hit over
the head a couple of times chasing what we saw
the week one with Jacksonville. And now we realize just
how bad they are and we're not going to overreact to,
you know, a London win over New England.
Speaker 2 (30:22):
So the Jags, I know everybody's going to point to, oh,
well the Jags, they were just in London for two weeks,
are going to be exhausted. There's basically no data that
backs that up. I mean, it sounds good, right, and
I'm sure other people will say it, but there's no
data that says coming off two weeks in London and
blah blah blah. But some stuff that's out there, like
Jordan Love just destroys zone defenses like you cannot zone
Jordan Love. He will shred you. He's arguably the best
(30:45):
quarterback the numbers say against his own. All Jacksonville does
is play zone and I'm sure you saw Cam Robinson
with the concussion and then he's got the long flight
back from London. I'm guessing he's a no go this week.
The left tackle and you know, we know the Packers
are top ten in pressure rate and they don't blitz lot.
This just nothing lines up for Jacksonville here, So I
don't know. I'm just curious, Doug, what are people seeing
(31:07):
that you'd see this?
Speaker 3 (31:08):
You brought this up. So let's go to the Jordan
Love thing. Are you talking more from a props standpoint,
a Packers team total or just the minus the points?
Speaker 2 (31:16):
Roger, I start with the side because I'm I don't
see any prop totals out yet, do you No?
Speaker 3 (31:21):
But you kind of know what it'll be roughly, right, Yeah,
And so even with the strong betting angle like you have,
there's gonna be some variants. Like I was heavy on
Gino Smith last week against the Falcons. Right, when Gino
has a clean pocket, he can thrive, and we saw
that against the Lions. We saw that in some other
games as well. He's been he's been awesome. But remember
(31:42):
they had a defensive touchdown then they had the big
lead they were protecting. So I lost on his overpassing yards.
He only had like two hundred and ten or so,
but he had, you know, that huge touchdown right before halftime,
So you had that, you went over one and a
half passing touchdowns. But I guess what I'm saying is
the variants. Even when the matchup is favorable and they
play well, sometimes the game script can go a certain
(32:03):
way where things don't play out, you know necessarily like
they quote unquote should And that's the same thing that
happens in the Packers games, right. You know the first
four weeks, all these Sharps were fading the Chiefs because
they were losing the box score and they were barely covering.
It's like, yeah, they barely beat the Ravens in Week one.
Lively's toe was on the line, but they were also
(32:24):
up ten and if they had just gotten a first down,
they were playing sort of prevent victory a little, so
they could easily won by ten. So there's a different way.
And then they didn't look that great in some other games.
A Chargers game, they were, you know, just messing around,
playing with their food, and they won by exactly seven.
Could have easily lost the game. Yeah, so a lot
of people just get kept fading the Chiefs. But again,
these other teams, and this is where I think being
(32:44):
a sports fan like yourself and knowledgeable about sports and
more than just being a fan, I mean you're connected
and you know this stuff, Like you know, the Chiefs
are playing the long game and they're getting Teams are
allowed to change and get better. That's why, frankly, a
lot of these math modelers in the NFL used last
year's stats as a baseline. So even this juncture of
(33:05):
the season, even week twelve, like last year's stats are
part of their projections because they want larger sample size,
and so they use a lot of the individual stats
because teams change. Obviously, some player personnel.
Speaker 2 (33:16):
But that's tough Chiefs Doug, right, I mean, Pacheco's gone,
Rice is gone. Kelsey doesn't even look like he looked
last year. He doesn't like. The Chiefs are really befuddling
to me because I will maintain Doug and you can
feel for it. I don't think they're a great football
team right now. I know they're undefeated and the defense
is unbelievable, but offensively they don't scare anybody.
Speaker 3 (33:37):
I don't know what they deal with Mahomes. They do
with Mahomes, don't they scare some people.
Speaker 2 (33:42):
I don't look at the receivers. He's trot now, like honestly,
I mean the Raiders. You know this Raiders is interesting.
Let's talk about that game so instantly. This moves up.
Chiefs are huge favorites. They just dismantle the Niners. But
of course some people want to mention. Hey, remember in
the offseason when the Raiders did that voodoo doll thing
and making fun Ofatrick Mahomes with the Kermit the frog
whatever it was, and Mahomes said, oh, well, we'll worry
(34:03):
about that later in the season. Again, I don't know
how you factor that into your handicapping. But Patrick Mahomes
has had a down year. I think he's tied for
the league leading interceptions. If ever, there was a game
where he's just going to be like, Oh, I'm going
ham on you guys, We're going to go for forty.
It feels like maybe this is the spot, unless you
don't think Casey's even capable of that.
Speaker 3 (34:24):
I do think they're capable. Yeah, I mean they look,
they kind of manhandled the Saints in that one game,
and they had that pick on the goal line too.
But that Saints win isn't as impressive as we thought
it was at the time. No, yeah, I would say
I was looking at the Raiders plus ten and then
the whole Kermit the Frog thing he got me off
of it. I do. I backed it in where it's
(34:46):
like I don't have to bet the game like in
my Pickham league. In my Pickham leagues, I'll take the
plus ten in my contest, I have to come up
with five.
Speaker 2 (34:53):
So I kind of figure it out the toughest part.
Speaker 3 (34:55):
But we have no buys this week if I remember correctly,
so that we have no.
Speaker 2 (34:57):
Buys and no London game, which is nice.
Speaker 3 (35:00):
Yeah, So look, it's been hard man. Like last week,
I had like two sides. That that's all I did, Like,
I just didn't like the card. I had a million.
Speaker 2 (35:08):
Let me guess you loved Seattle, right.
Speaker 3 (35:11):
I did that team total and over, but then I
lost the game over too, so I split that.
Speaker 2 (35:16):
Yeah, I had two and three in the contest that
the two I loved were layups automatic, and then the
other three just kind of flekey stuff. And then like
an idiot, I went against Mahomes with the Niners, and
you know, let me ask you. Deebo Samuel practices all week, Okay,
no restriction is nothing, He's fine, and then he shows
up to the game sick, plays three plays and is
out like the people expecting sanfre and like myself to
(35:39):
do well in that when obviously Debo's a huge part
of the game plan and then poof, he's gone after
three plays, like just logistically, oh my gosh, that's a shot.
He's like your team leader. He's the first guy out
of the tunnel with Trent Williams. I mean, and he's
got pneumonia. You can't even play. You know, it's bad
when Deebo Samuel can't get on the field like that.
To me was just that's brutal.
Speaker 3 (35:58):
But some of these into you don't let that affect you.
You just got to let that go when well, okay, two.
Speaker 2 (36:03):
Weeks ago, Michael Pittman, how about Michael Pittman two weeks ago, Hey, Wednesday,
looks like he said it toward ir Sunday catches the
game when he touchdown pass? What the fuck is that?
Speaker 3 (36:11):
I don't know, man, that was a really outlier situation.
But the NF, look, there's no there's no teeth to
the penalty. Like I mean, the NFL is trying to
get them to do it, but there's no punishment. So
like like Cam Rising, like there's no punishment. Oh gosh,
Kyle Whittingham not doing anything with that injury. Now finally,
you know, a week ago they finally announced that he's
done for the year. But every week it was like
panda watch, And so what are you supposed to do
(36:33):
as a gambler, Yeah, when it's just this, you know,
is he or is he not playing? And but there's
no ramifications or consequences. So I don't blame the coach either.
If he's that Gamesman should help. Gamesmanship helps with the
opposing teeth.
Speaker 2 (36:46):
Let me ask you two more Chargers Saints. So this
is one of those weird spots. We've seen two of
them this season where one team's coming off extra rest
from Thursday, and that would be the Saints they got destroyed,
and the others coming off a short rest the Chargers
on one night football right.
Speaker 3 (37:02):
The other one was Giant Seattle, right, yes, yeah, and
Seattle got magnified like no other and the other pining
quarterback for the Saints.
Speaker 2 (37:09):
Well that's so that's the only hang up. But as it,
just because I'm a moron, I was like, you know what,
let me just go ahead and grab the Chargers minus
seven and a half. If they find out that there's
no car and Olave's not back. We know Shaheed's done.
We don't know about Taysom Hill. Like the Saints are
just a mass unit and we know they can't stop
the run. I mean the Eagles read everybody runs all
(37:29):
over them. I I mean Kareem Hunt came off the
sofa and ran for a buck twenty or whatever. I
see harball just slow twenty to seven kind of game,
twenty to six, whatever it is.
Speaker 3 (37:40):
But I think it could be a shootout if it's
car or even if it's Jake Hayner, I think it
can be a shootout.
Speaker 2 (37:46):
Why are you reading shootout?
Speaker 3 (37:47):
What? Because the Saints are going to give up points
right away. I know what you mean by Harbor is
going to want to run on them. But you can
have chunk plays as well, and I think the Saints
have enough weapons Kamara and still like if you just
you see a competent quarterback, rattlers not good like if
Jake Hayner played, I think they can put up a
lot of points. I really do.
Speaker 2 (38:07):
Interesting so, but we don't know who the starter.
Speaker 3 (38:10):
Is because of the rest advantage and things like that.
Speaker 2 (38:12):
Like you said, have you fired on this game at all?
Speaker 3 (38:14):
No? No, this is a card I hate now. I
hated last week too and ended up being you know,
prophetic on that because I didn't do well, like I
didn't like the card, didn't like anything. I usually do
my best in October November because the math guys get
sort of solidified, and I think there's situational handicapping like
you were talking about. Sometimes the cards is not that favorable.
Like my favorite play this week is the Jets and
(38:36):
Patriots over forty.
Speaker 2 (38:37):
Oh dear goodness, gracious the Jets. I can't that's my
team and I can't even watch them, Doug, So don't.
Speaker 3 (38:44):
You forty one? Like, don't you think the offense is
like needs to get right? Like don't you think they
need a breakout sort of performance and the Patriots defense
is the perfect kind of you know, prescription for that.
Speaker 2 (38:59):
I do wonder and again this no math involved. Mayo
goes and calls out his team as soft. Belichick then
goes on somewhere and says, you can't call your players
offt that's that's not right. I don't know whether it's
going to be a mutiny in the locker room or
it's gonna wake guys up. So I think nothing.
Speaker 3 (39:15):
Do you think that like they're capable of playing better
if they tried it harder. I just don't think they're good.
Speaker 2 (39:19):
So we jet the Jets. They could be down four
guys in the secondary, and Drake may has actually done
kind of well.
Speaker 3 (39:26):
Well, I think I think the Patriots, well, that's why
I like the over. I don't want to lay it
with the Jets. I think we're gonna see some points.
I don't think the Patriots call them soft, call them great,
Like I don't think their defense is good, so they're
like it's like telling me if I you know, I
cannot dunk, so I go try to dunk and I
don't get there, and it's like you call me soft,
Like I'm not gonna all of a sudden be able
to dunk right because I'm mad, Like I don't think
(39:48):
they can play better, because I don't think they're good.
Speaker 2 (39:50):
I think I saw a stat though they they've had
seven games and seven different offensive line combinations, like they're
just a mess, trading judeon bar Moore's stuff, like they
don't have any I.
Speaker 3 (40:00):
Thought they gave up their those defensive guys. But but
the when when Brissette was playing, the opposing teams knew
that he couldn't throw the ball. So now that Drake May,
I mean frankly, he'll turn the ball over and that
helps it over too. So like the the he's a
the line got bet up. I think from thirty eight
to like forty two, and then there's buyback, like I
think this thing could have like fifty to fifty five points, Like,
(40:21):
I mean, you need to get right on offense. And
it's another week of practice with Devonte Adams and things
like that well.
Speaker 2 (40:26):
Wayne Adams has a hamstring. He may not go this
week because the.
Speaker 3 (40:29):
Show next week totally banged up. So very yeah, let
me ask you, I think those guys can score on him.
Speaker 2 (40:35):
So like the old school guys you referenced earlier in
the podcast, they will probably look at this spot and see, ooh,
divisional rematch, okay outdoors Automatically, the divisional rematches historically go under.
I don't have the ats in front.
Speaker 3 (40:50):
Of me, but and we think that's right.
Speaker 2 (40:53):
We have one that.
Speaker 3 (40:56):
I think it's the straight mat is using output and
data points from when Jacoby Brissett was playing. So I
think those low scores, those inept offensive outputs went into
that fact. And I just think it's a completely different team.
I wouldn't even consider the offensive numbers from those weeks
that Brisset was the quarterback. I just won't even consider it.
(41:18):
It's a completely different team as far as I'm concerned.
Speaker 2 (41:20):
So that that's your favorite total, is there a side
that you've kind of narrowed down?
Speaker 1 (41:26):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
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Speaker 3 (41:38):
It's really hard to lay the lumber with Denver.
Speaker 2 (41:42):
I don't know. I don't think it's that I don't
think it's that hard.
Speaker 3 (41:45):
I mean, voters should not be laying that kind of points.
Speaker 2 (41:48):
But that was what everybody said last week against the Saints,
and it's like, no, no, no, look at the matchup.
Speaker 3 (41:53):
It's the Saints.
Speaker 2 (41:54):
They're not right.
Speaker 3 (41:56):
Carolina's bad and Bryce Young's bad and that's like my
I think that's go on my tombstone down the road.
I was the only person just from the from the
highest hilltop I can get is Bryce Young is not
an NFL quarterback?
Speaker 2 (42:07):
Did you? Uh well, I guess they're not out yet.
But prop numbers on defensive touchdown for the Broncos gotta
go high. I mean, honestly, it feels like Shortan's probably
gonna get one the pressure. Yes, I mean, this is
just tough.
Speaker 3 (42:21):
But let me I will say, we've seen quarterbacks get
better a little bit when they've been able to see
the game from a different angle on the sideline and
just you know, whether it's Dalton's is saying, hey, the
small bites, take what the defense gives you. Things like that,
Although he was terrible last week, but maybe he's gonna
be a little bit better because he has a high
football like you, and maybe there's upside there. He's just tiny,
(42:44):
that's my issue with him. I never questioned his his
you know, aptitude from a from a reading defenses thing,
but he's regressed in the NFL and he's just he's
not an NFL quarterback. He's just too small. It's just
that simple. But I would look there. There's no like
dogs that are jumping off the page for me.
Speaker 2 (43:01):
You would look where Denver or Carolina?
Speaker 3 (43:04):
Denver, Yeah, Denver. I think the Jets plus seven's worth
a look as well. I just mind plus seven the Jets. Sorry,
I'm sorry. The Patriots plus seven ill Patriots interesting at home.
But the Jets just need this game too much. It's
like too important to them.
Speaker 2 (43:21):
How about this one. Let's go to Bears Washington. You've
got the injury thing to Jaden Daniels. So there's a
report that Daniels did not practice today, and I think
they said we'll see Friday. But if you read Ian
Rapaport's tweet, he wrote, it's trending as if Mariota will
get to start. Now you can read the tea leaves
(43:43):
in that and say, oh, it's gonna be Mariota. They
have a huge divisional matchup with the Giants next week
that that means more than this Bears game. And I
I mean, again, Doug, this is just kind of a guest,
but I don't think Daniels is gonna go Remember the
RG three stuff, he had, the injuries, they forced him
out there, it ended horribly. I think that Washington is
cautious here, and I'm on the Bears here.
Speaker 3 (44:06):
I would go the other way. I just think it's
going to be a strong effort game from Washington. Bears
have won three straight. I don't think they're that good.
The problem is Washington defense isn't good, so the Bears
have capitalized on facing the bad defenses on their schedule
of the last three weeks. Yeah, but Washington's just like
the fourth one. Uh so that's a little bit. I
(44:28):
don't think their coaching staff's really good, so I don't
know if they're taking advantage of it. Unless they had
a bunch of injuries they had to get healthy. Obviously
that the buy can serve as a huge asset, or
it can disrupt a win streak. Too. I like this
Washington team, but it's just Jane Daniels, Like I do
think a guy like Mariota at this juncture of his career,
like there there could be like he could be much
(44:49):
better now, Like there is reason for guys to get better.
And if it's just one of those things where you like,
look at Flacca, I mean he was good before, but
so much of this game is mental and iq I
mean Adon Manning's last year in Denver, right, And so
if Mariota has gotten better and just learned, like Sam
Darnold's a great example, right, He's just become more knowledgeable
(45:11):
for the position, and he can anticipate more things than
he could before, and therefore he's not reacting, he's anticipating.
And so if the game is slowing down for a
guy like Mariota, there's no reason he can't be like
a decent QB if he's got obviously the mobility as well,
and he doesn't have to do much if he's got
good weapons and just you know, kind of just it's
all the cliches of football. Make sure every drive ends
(45:33):
with a kick and blah blah blah. But I'm I'm
a big believer, whether it be college football within a
season or NFL within a season, or or like people
are allowed to get better, Like yes, we have our
first impressions, but that doesn't mean it's different. Like you
don't get to this level of sports, whether it's the
NFL or and be at whatever by being like a chump. Right,
So if a guy you know, yes, for every we
(45:55):
have the JaMarcus Russells of the world, and we have
some other busts, but usually you have a competitive That's
why teams that get blown out you want to bet
on in the next week is that week of practice.
They're buttoned up their competitive dudes. They're elite athletes, Like
you're gonna get a good effort or at least preparation
all week. So I do believe that Mariota could be
a lot better at this juncture in stam Donold versus
like three years ago, four years ago.
Speaker 2 (46:17):
You did reference the Bears getting healthy off the by
So in week six in London they were down three
defensive backs and looks like Stevenson is back, Brisker will
have cleared concussion protocol, and their secondary has been pretty
damn good. Now, as you alluded to, they played crap quarterbacks,
but you put Johnson Byered Brisker Steven that that's a
pretty great combo. And I, I mean, I feel pretty
(46:41):
good about about my bear side two and a half.
Speaker 3 (46:44):
Not great, I mean agree that Daniels probably isn't playing.
Like I'm with you on that.
Speaker 2 (46:50):
I guess last one, Doug, you can laugh. So the
New York Giants go to Pittsburgh Monday night. It is
the biggest spread post Ben Roethlisberger that Tomlins laid. The
other two big spreads they did not cover. I can't
believe this, but I think I'm going to be backing
Daniel Jones. I think on Monday at football.
Speaker 3 (47:13):
I'm with you in terms of like, oh lot, No, No,
I'm not betting. I'm just saying, like I understand where
you're coming from. My biggest concern is just the happy
feed against that pass rush. Right yeah, well yeah, he's
played well in a couple of games, and frankly, like
the Browns have a decent you know, can put pressure
on the quarterback and then they almost beat the Eagles
(47:34):
and the Commander's game he played while they should have,
but that's a bad defense. The Cowboys have a bad
defense and they couldn't even get the end zone. I
I wonder if like that offense can just be completely
disrupted by a by a Steelers team, and that that
defense man, Like I was shocked they lost the Cowboys,
Like I like the Cowboys made that Cowboys completely outplayed
(47:54):
them that game, frankly, and other than that, like this
defense is a disruptor. And but I'm not in a
rush to lay six and a half. I still think
Russ is like so so although he looked okay, he
throws at the there's going to be an adjustment, like
the rust, like some of the short hops have to
go away.
Speaker 2 (48:09):
You think, well, I'm not in a rush to back
the Giants, but I need five in the contest that
I've only got right, No.
Speaker 3 (48:14):
I know, I look, I Trice look. I'm also like
handicapping the NBA and all this crazy stuff. I'm looking
at a few things in the NFL. The over I'm
surprised has come down a little bit after going up
a lot that New England Jets game, Like that's the
only game that I think is a strong bet for me.
I'm warming up to the Packers for sure. Like, but again,
(48:35):
but this talks about the market. The market has the
buy back at five and now it's bought back from
four and a half to four. Why because they can't
help themselves. It's a math again, it's the math thing.
They're like, well, the line should be this, I made it, this,
I have to bet it. And in their defense, they
make money doing this, right, like, they are profitable, and
(48:56):
so they have to stick to their math because they're
going to to go six and four, six and five,
and it's gonna, you know, whatever it is, right seven
and five, and we're just trying to go four and
three and two in a contest or maybe just two
and one on bets and we have our rightea. So
while we may be right on that Packers game, they're
not good. They're not about to deviate from their math
(49:20):
and start doing something that has been working for so long.
So like, think about it, like them t blackjack, right,
like they know if the count is this, they're just
gonna do it. And you're sitting there like, why would
you hit twelve against a four or something, And it's like, well,
the math said, whatever it is, you know, So I
think they're gonna do it their way. But that's the
beauty of the NFL. Like that's the one nice thing
(49:40):
is the sharp money keeps the market from getting too
crazy unless there's a significant injury with quarterback or something
like that. But like, there's gonna be there's gonna be
resistance on the Panthers. Just watch there. You know. Obviously
there was an adjustment when when Darnold's officially out and
now what's gonna happen. So it's already come back. It
hit ten and a half, I think, and now it's
(50:01):
solid ten everywhere. Maybe it didn't hit ten and a half,
but it's it's a solid ten everywhere. And I just
think as soon as a book, you know, because the weekend,
the weekend's gonna come and the public's gonna come in heavy,
and then they're going to try ten and a half.
But the sharps will bite right away because that's just
how they are. Yeah, right, and it works for.
Speaker 2 (50:19):
Them only players. Go ahead, check that out. Very cool.
Speaker 3 (50:24):
Listen.
Speaker 2 (50:24):
A lot of people leave ESPN and it's like, oh man,
they're going to get lost. Doug is crushing it and
continued success with my friend hopefully will you be at
the super Bowl or nowhere?
Speaker 3 (50:33):
Uh no, I mean I was obviously here in town
last year, so I have no plans this year. I
probably should be looking into that and doing that because
at least I'll go for the week. Is you know,
I'm wearing the entrepreneurial hat during all this as well. Yeah,
I'm learning a lot about distribution and sales and just
the mechanics now. Fortunately, my business partner has like basically
my career from a sales standpoint, so he's done network
(50:57):
sales and all this stuff, so he understands all these
acts and m's for you know, online videos and all
this stuff, but CPMs and all the distribution lingo. But
I've learned a lot and talking with more, like we
had a really big call today and like I understand
what they want from a content standpoint and in a
minute video and district so I'm learning a lot and
(51:18):
how the sausage is made, which I think has made
me better on air. We'll see, but.
Speaker 2 (51:25):
For years get not.
Speaker 3 (51:27):
Necessarily better hate together, but it's it's a slow grind
for sure, And there's obviously like you wonder and you
miss you missed the bells and whistles of an ESPN
for sure, and just being back on campus and interacting.
Like I loved. Campus life is just be working with
a bunch of smart, cool people like you know that
from Fox. But the entrepreneurial life is cool too, And
I can go anywhere whenever I want and you know,
(51:48):
do whatever I want and maybe go back home to
LA and stuff like that. So everything has its trade off.
But you know, this has been something that you know
a lot of people do this. A lot of people
do this conventionally in their own industries. Right, You're your work,
core life for a while and then you go do
your your your you know, your launch, your own your venture.
So it's it's just not commonly done in the TV
space or whatever. But it's been fun. Hopefully we can
(52:09):
kind of continue to materialize and get some momentum here
with these announcements. Will be coming. We'll be coming soon,
all
Speaker 2 (52:15):
Right, man, Thanks a lot, Doug, you got it, But
thank you.
Host
Jason McIntyre
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