How Murphy's Law Works, the Redux

Years back, Josh recorded this show without Chuck, and the old version's omitted facts bugged him. In this new version, the pair delve into the people, science and rocket tests behind Murphy's Law. Join Josh and Chuck for this properly-executed episode.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Brought to you by the reinvented two thousand twelve camera.
It's ready. Are you welcome to Stuff you should know
from house Stuff Works dot Com. Hey, and welcome to
the podcast. I'm Josh Clark. There's Charles W. Chuck Bryant,
who is with me as always but hasn't been with

(00:23):
me as always. Mean, there was a dark, dark time
in my life, Chuck. I call it the pre Chuck era.
You're two kind. And there were, um several many podcasts
that I released with other people. Um, I don't feel
good about it, okay, but there it's out there. There's

(00:44):
one that always stuck out to me that I was like,
there's so much more information. You remember, like back in
the day, we used to try to hit these things
at like five minutes. Yeah, to say this is evolved
is an understatement, right. Um. So there was one that
I was like, five minutes is not an enough for this,
Let's do something like thirty seven minutes instead. And um

(01:06):
it was Murphy's Law. So I really this article a
long time ago. It was like how Murphy's Law works.
Like I was raised on these unnatural laws, like the
Peter principle, which we've podcasted on Parkinson's Law, which is
um work expands to fill the time allotted, and then
Murphy's Law, which is, of course anything that can go
wrong will go wrong. Right. So I was kind of

(01:28):
always aware of this, and I pitched this idea like
how Murphy's Law works, like right after I got here
at how stuff works, and um, I got the assignment
and started doing this research. I found out that there's
this awesome backstory to this, which I know you know
now and have for a while because we made a
Toyota commercial based on part of it. You're telling me

(01:49):
this now exactly exactly, So I guess what I'm saying
is I wanted to redo how Murphy's Law works, a reboot,
and let's do it. And no disrespect to previous podcasters,
but this was just too short, you know, too short.
You can't cover Murphy's on in five minutes. No you can't.
So here's the expanded version, and we're not gonna like

(02:12):
start rerunning things. Don't worry, there's plenty of topics out there.
This one just really kind of I always wanted to
redo this one was stuck in your crawl and no
it's no, it's out it's not your crawl. Uh idiom, Josh,
that's what we're talking about. Whatever can go wrong, we'll
go wrong. And uh, you make a good point at
the beginning of this is it's it's an idiom because

(02:35):
we've made it an idiom, and uh, you don't notice
and make remarks about when things go perfectly right, you
might feel good and be like, hey, everything's coming up
rosen today, or maybe that's an idiom. It's not an idiom.
Actually it's a saying. But you never you don't say,
you know, boy, I got in this lane of traffic
and it's just speeding along, and I should make a

(02:55):
saying about that. You can, but very rarely do you Like,
we humans tend to focus more on the negative, you know,
And that's what Murphy's law is. It's a focus on
the negative. That's right. We look out for the bad
in a way. And Murphy's law itself, Chuck, is not
that old, to tell you the truth, And it wasn't Um.
It wasn't Murphy who originally coined this idea. There was

(03:20):
a um. There was a something called Sod's law that's
still around in Great Britain, which says, uh, basically the
same thing, any bad thing that can happen to some
poor sod which is short for sodomite, is it? Yeah? Yeah,
no comment. And then there was a magician named Adam

(03:40):
hole Shirk apparently in wrote something called on Getting out
of Things, an essay on magic, which is not on
the internet. Yeah I did too. Actually, um it said
in a magic act, nine out of ten things that
can go wrong usually will And I thought maybe Adam
was just a bad magician when I read that. Really,

(04:02):
so he he gets credit, like just about any origin
story of Murphy's Law includes Adam hole Shirk, and it should.
But it wasn't called Murphy's Law, no, um until a
guy there actually was a guy named Murphy, and he
actually did live not too long ago. He died in
nineteen nine, I believe this article says, but it's eighty nine. Um,

(04:23):
you're gonna go back and change that. And um, he
was a captain in the Air Force, and he is
attributed with not coining Murphy's Law depending on who you
talk to, but spurring the idea of Murphy's law who
were which was coined by somebody else? Right, So let's
let's set the stage Chuck, it's ninety we're in California

(04:48):
in my hand exactly. We're at um Edwards Air Force Space.
We need to get into the way back machine here. Man,
it's been a while. Okay, So as I said, Edwards
Air Force Pace. It's very nice. Um, there's Chuck Yeager right,

(05:10):
see look at him go and then over there on
that that that railroad track is kind of in the
middle of nowhere. Uh is the rocket sled the g
whiz rocket sled. That's a Nego name. So let's talk
about that. Okay, what is it? Well, this was part
of the Project m X, and they were tests to

(05:32):
determine how the body, the human body, reacted to G force. Yeah,
there's a long standing idea that the human body could
withstand eighteen g s and all airplanes were designed to
uh withstand eighteen g's of force and nothing more, right,
which means that, um, they were kind of hamstrung by

(05:52):
this magical number. But no one knew exactly where that
number came from. Her if it was true. What's screwy
is that they had no way to find out except
for these rockets led tests. That's right, using a real
live human being, Because if you're going to test something,
you can't throw a crash test dummy in there. You
could in the ninety nine. Now, well, yeah, these days

(06:14):
they have sensors and actually not to be pluggy, but
Toyota came up with the thing that that measures the
total human uh model for safety and it measures internal damage.
So like it's very sophisticated now, but back then, if
you want to find some of the stuff out, you
had to put a human in there. Well, at first

(06:35):
they used cadavers, then they used dummies like Sierra Sam
and then on the g Wiz rocket tests they used
um oscar eight ball, but there they didn't have sensors
for it, so they had to use John Paul Stapp
who volunteered, who was a really incredible renaissance man. He's
a colonel. Yeah in the Air Force. He was a

(06:57):
physician UM and he uh he flew around in a
in an airplane without a canopy. Remember that I've heard that. Um.
He also uh basically made it his life's work to
get seatbelts made mandatory in automobiles. So he staged the
first ever UM automobile crash tests, and he did it

(07:20):
at the expense of the Air Force, and the Air
Force was like, hey, whoa, what are you doing? What
are you expensing these dust for? These are cars, we
we fly planes. And he came up with statistics that
showed that more Air Force pilots died from car rex
and from plane rex and they said okay. And that
was just the kind of guy. He was, real stand
up dude, he was. So what he did was he
jumped in the g with said, hey, I'll do it.

(07:42):
I'm Colonel John Paul Staff. I do this kind of thing.
And it would go about two hundred miles an hour
down a half mile track and then stop in less
than a second. And what they're trying to test is
say that one more time to go two hundred miles
an hour and stop and lessen a second. Yeah, that's crazy.
That's basically they're trying to test what might happen in
a plane crash. So they were they were finding the

(08:04):
force of gravity, how much a human coupe withstand? And
remember eighteen was that magic number, And in very short
order John Paul stap withstood eighteen ges and then twenty
and then and I think he made it up to
forty six point to six was the most he experienced.
I think you're ever like the highest roller coaster would

(08:26):
always go to that, but the roller coaster with the
highest acceleration is like two point seven g's. This guy
did forty six point to six and he suffered for
it too. Yeah, big time, broken bones, concussions, broken blood
vessels in its eyes. Yeah, he'd have white outs, which
is when when he was going backwards, they'd turn him
around sometimes so he wouldn't get the bugs in his

(08:47):
face and he would have white outs, which is all
the blood is pulling in the back of the head,
so he has no blood in his eyes, which means
you can't see or you get read out to where
all the blood was pulling in the front of his
face and he couldn't see because there was too much
blood in his eyes. I wonder if they were like, hey,
let's put him sideways, it happens, it would be like
a pink out. Yeah, a one eye is read one

(09:09):
is white. Yeah. So this is all going pretty well
for step if you consider that a success. And then
Murphy Captain Murphy shows up on the scene and says, hey,
you know, I've got these sensors that will give you
a much more accurate read of the g force. So
let's get my assistant. I don't know why he didn't
do it himself. No, it was one of the This

(09:30):
is Project MXE. It was one of the project's assistants. Murphy.
Why didn't he do it is what I want to know.
I don't know, because there's another saying if you want
something done right, do it yourself. And I would have
rubbed that in his face. They didn't, though, and and
supposedly tell him about the sensors, well, that the sensors
would give you a more accurate reading. And then the

(09:50):
assistant evidently, uh, hook them up wrong. And there are
there was one way to hook up each one of these,
and he did the opposite way for two ways. Well,
there's one correct way right to hook up the censor,
and then he did it the wrong way on every
single one of them. And then Murphy said out loud
to somebody that if there are two ways of doing something,

(10:14):
one of these will result in disaster. He's gonna do
it that way, or he said something along the lines
of if there's any way they can do it wrong,
they will. Um. It depends on who you talk to.
There were living witnesses in two thousand when this guy
for Improbable Research, who who hosts the ig Nobel Awards
UM wrote a pretty comprehensive article on it um and

(10:37):
he interviewed these people and they said he roughly said that,
or he said something like you said, but ultimately he
was grumbling and it was loud enough, and he was
saying it about these people that he just met, who
had you know, incorrectly hooked up the sensors. Okay, well
let's hook him right and do it again. It's not
a big deal. So Murphy apparently, if you talk to
the witnesses, was kind of thought of as a bit

(10:58):
of a jerk. That's what I think, which is something
his son still to this day disputes. He says that
that is not in his father's character. His father was
not a jerk, and he wouldn't have he wouldn't have
been so rude or boorish. But most of the witnesses
say he said something like that. That was the seed.
How did the tree come about? The tree came about?

(11:18):
Because uh, stab was apparently a pretty gregarious guy. Obviously,
if he's taking part in these tests with a plum,
then he's gonna probably be a pretty fun guy to
be around. Well, he had he had two books Chuck
of um idioms. One was it was called STAPs Almanac,
the other was four Year Moments of Inertia. And he

(11:40):
had already come up with his own little saying Stepp's
ironical paradox, which is the universal aptitude for an aptitude
makes any human accomplishment an incredible miracle. So he was
already generally on the lookout for new bits of wisdom.
He's stealing these things from people, basically, and he stole
it from Murphy Fee and at a press conference the

(12:01):
next day said and this is where you know it
took off obviously, because the press conference he said that, hey, uh,
we we have a good safety record because we are
aware of Murphy's law, which is whatever can go wrong
will go wrong. And they all got a big laugh.
That's brilliant, and they all ranted the pay phones and
called it in. Yeah, it makes it into like some

(12:22):
aerospace publications, and then it disseminates out. It's just like
just a perfect gem, perfectly encapsulated. Whatever can go wrong
will go wrong. It's just say universal truth in unnatural law, right,
and um it kind of gave a kickstart to this
whole There's a trend in the fifties of people being
pithy like like, um because Peter and Principle. Yeah, and

(12:45):
actually I found out, Um, Lawrence Peter, who who came
up with the Peter principal and um Captain Murphy became
lifelong friends. Wasn't that special in it? Um. But it
gave rise to all these other ideas, these unnatural laws.
It was kind of a trend. Like I said, in
the fifties and sixties, I think people wanted to put
their name on something. Right, So I selected a few

(13:08):
out of there's lists on the internet that are just
you can scroll for hours now at the bottom of
these things, right, but um, you want to read some
of these Uh. It tours observation. The other line moves faster,
which makes sense. Boobs law. You will always find something
in the last place you look. What's another good one here?

(13:29):
Franklin's rule, blessed is he who expects nothing, for he
will not be disappointed. Lincoln's law, those who can do
do those who cannot teach, which just mean. It is mean,
especially to teachers. It's so disrespectful. Uh. And then Patton
General Georgia's Patton had a law that a good plan
to day is better than a perfect plan tomorrow, because

(13:51):
by then Charlie's killed you Right, he wasn't Vietnam, No,
but oh you just meant a guy named Charlie. Okay, yeah,
uh so yeah. People obviously like naming things after themselves
and coming up with pithy little sayings that people like
to say. Right, But there's there and there's two ways
that Murphy's law can be um categorized. It can be

(14:14):
categorized in the realm of pithy sayings from the fifties
and sixties, like the Peter principle, which, as you remember,
it did make sense it had it had some gravity
to it Peter. Or you can look at Murphy's law
and the coining of it in by John Paul stat
as the formulation of the basis for all engineering thought

(14:39):
that came after that point, which was the creation of
fail safe, the creation of redundant systems, and the idea
that you should plan for everything going wrong so that
if it does go wrong, it's covered and the system
doesn't want it won't break down. Sure, it gave a
saying to that practice. It was already in practice, but

(15:00):
people didn't start building fail says because of Murphy's Law.
You know what I'm saying, I don't know, man, well, seatbelts,
that's a fail safe. Uh. And that is not just
from Murphy's Law. That was from staff himself when you're
pushing this legislation. So let's talk about like the principles

(15:22):
going on behind Murphy's law. Fatalism, it's pretty much it.
Fatalism is the idea that we are just walking around
subject to whatever fate, you know, whatever happens to us,
whatever fate dictates. Like, if you're in a line of traffic, right, yeah,
and you it seems like all other lines are going

(15:43):
except for yours, right. This is explainable. It's explicable, Like
you're not paying attention to the other lines of traffic
when your line is going because you're paying attention to
not hit the person in front of you. When you're
just sitting there, all you notice is that the other
lanes are going. But if you could really statistically explain,

(16:06):
you know, how often the lanes of traffic are moving,
it's probably fairly even. Probably, so I always kind of well,
actually have I go in the lane that I think
is going to be moving. But because we're fatalistic, we
we It's like, why why does the universe hate me?
I'm totally powerless to make traffic move right? And then

(16:26):
free will was not well, not the opposite. But that's
the other idea, is that, uh, we have free will
for all of our choices and all of our consequences
are due to things that we have made happen, right,
and the the attendant with free will is the risk
of failure. So when we have a fifty chance of
getting something right, well, we're gonna get it wrong or

(16:47):
we're gonna notice mostly when we get it wrong, because
then we have to do it again, and it's just
so much trouble to try to put the plug in
the right way. Yeah right, the three pong failsafe plug
you yeah, okay, but other prongs electrical sockets. If you
look at them, one's bigger than the other, that's fail safe.

(17:11):
After Murphy's Law changed everything another for that, it was
just death ville for everything there was well yeah, well there,
let me put it to you this way. There was
something like um, twenty five million licensed motorists in the
US and like forty three thousand deaths on the highways

(17:35):
in like nineteen sixty, I think something like that. In
two thousand there was seventy five million licensed motorists and
about as many deaths. So yeah, when before Murphy came
along and there were no fail safe and one had
any idea what they were doing, I'll dispute that. But
did ever show you the video of the the car
crashes like the old what blood on the asshole? The uh?

(18:01):
They did this? High speed car crashes with an old
like you know when you see those old tanks like
oh man, back then were in Paula or something. Yeah,
like those big old tanks. Those were like they were
tanks because their tanks and they I bet you were
safe in those seat belts. But they compared the crash
to a modern car and the old car, man just

(18:23):
I mean squashed and crumbled like a tin can. Really,
oh dude, yeah, because cows cows. Cars are just engineered
these days, as our cows couple zones and things like yeah, man,
and it's it might be made of plastic, but it's
amazing when you watch this thing. Back then, they were
huge and made of metal, but at enough impact that
metal just becomes nothing it's pretty interesting. Speaking of cows

(18:47):
being engineered. You remember that cow um on Millage in
Athens that had the porthole in it so they could
like open it up and reach inside and I think
fertilize it or they were doing something. I never saw that,
but that cow. It was crazy. Murphy's law happened to
that cow. I wrote about that. They they have those
little portals into their stomachs so they can study things

(19:09):
like that's like right there on the side. And then also, Chuck,
I want to point out Rodyard Kipling, right, he provides
us a good example of the whole y me attitude
of humanity, and then the mathematical explanation of why you
pal you're Kipling once lamented that no matter how you
drop it, the the bread that you dropped out of

(19:32):
your hand onto the floor always falls butter side down,
which means you can't treat it any longer, and it
gives you the vapors so um. If you think about it,
a buttered piece of bread is heavier on one side
than the other, so thanks to the force of gravity
on the way down, the bread is going to flip
over that. But it's yes, but it's heavier as we

(19:56):
proved this, give me some bread. Well, I just don't.
I just wanted has proven and not. I think it's interesting.
But we'll think about this. I just wonder how much
butter would it literally take to cause it to flip over.
There's a certain amount, And I think also this is
going to happen more frequently with um plain untoasted bread

(20:18):
and butter rather than like toast with butter melted in it,
which may be distributed evenly throughout the bread. But the
point is is, yes, it's going to flip over, but
it's not going to flip back over because the heavier
side is now being dragged towards the earth. But if
it does fall butter side up, then that's just good luck.
That's fate. Okay. So again there's there's a certain amount

(20:42):
of I guess math or science to Murphy's law. There
can be if you really want to look for it.
And your name's Joel Pell right, Yeah, he's he's another
fun killer, like the laughter guys. I know math people
will take issue with that, but I take issue with
everything having to be stated as a math formula. Well,

(21:03):
this guy, he begs to differ. He does he's a
biological engineer at the University of British Columbia, and I
think in two thousand five he came up with Murphy's equation,
which basically he figured out how to quantify the probability
that things will go wrong when they can go wrong.
Right A, you're gonna read it. It's pretty impossible to

(21:24):
read out loud. Yeah, I don't. I don't think I can,
because what's the opposite of to the something power when
it's like down below into the right rather than up
into the idea. Well, basically he figured out that the
importance of the event I times the complexity of the
system involved CE times the urgency of the need for
the system of work you plus the frequency the system

(21:48):
is used equals p the probability that the Murphy's law
will kick in. And one is definite. I think ten
is it's not going to happen, and somewhere in between
is it might happen, it might not. So what he
did was he basically plugged in the um the possibility
of his clutch going out in a rainstorm sixty miles

(22:10):
a hundred kilometers from his house UM, and he came
up with an answer of one, which means that his
clutch was definitely going to go out. And he further
demonstrated that what now that he's stranded out in the
rainstorm and he needs to get somewhere by foot, he
needs his flashlight to work. Um, what's the what's the

(22:32):
probability that Murphy's law will happen and the flashlight will
be out? He plugged it in and came up with
the one again. So he very facetiously proved that Murphy's
Law is real and his equation worked. I hope this
guy got stuck in a rainstorm a flashlight, That's what
I hope. Poor Joel pell I had to um correspond
with him for this. Yeah, I did get permission to

(22:54):
use his equation and he said, sure, here's a cool dude.
Yeah really Yeah? All right, So, Chuck, we talked about
like prongs being designed with fail safe seat belts are
a fail safe diesel pump nozzles there. They are designed
at a wider diameter than regular gas pumps, so you
can't fit it in your gas tank. Did you know that? Yeah?

(23:16):
That wasn't always a case, because I put diesel in
a in a truck one time when I shouldn't have.
And when did it start? After Murphy's law became widespread
started in the mid nineties, I think, or that's the
last time I screwed up like that? What you got? Uh?
I got nothing else? Thank God for fail Safe. So
thank god for John Paul Staff and Captain Edward A. Murphy, Jr.

(23:39):
I have a Chuck's key law. I got my two
house keys. I have a outer security like a clear
door and then my regular door. Two different keys that
look the same. On my dog Leach will almost a
hundred percent of the time I used the wrong key.
I'll bet if you paying attention to it, you use

(23:59):
the wrong you about fifty percent at the time. That's
Murphy's law. Well, then something's up. I also have my
directional thing. I have a port into direction almost dude,
it's awful. I didn't know that almost a hundred percent
of the time I will go the wrong way if
faced with a choice, should I go this way or
that way? And if I try to trick myself and

(24:19):
go I want to go right, then I'm gonna go left.
It was right nice. That's Murphy's law too. I know
then it ruins my life. But you can't just hijack
Murphy's law and slape your name on it. Those are
Chuck's that's chuck ski law and Chuck's law of direction. Right,
that's Murphy's law. All right. If you want to learn
more about Murphy's law and read my article on it.

(24:42):
It was one of the first articles I wrote it.
I like it. Um, you can type in Murphy's Law
in the search bar at how stuff works dot com.
Thank you for listening to this one twice. Yeah, thanks
for doing it with me. Now, well it was it
was Do we were due for this one? Yeah? Um,
I think I said hand these first part, didn't I?
I think so? All right, Well that since it's time

(25:03):
for what we're gonna wind up the old Facebook asked
Jock and Chush questions and people did so you always
get like a hundred of him in a couple of minutes.
I have to shut it down. Yeah, people want to know,
all right, So let's just run through some of these. Josh,
you got one, go ahead, all right? Who's your favorite

(25:25):
Simpsons character who was not a Simpson? Well? Cheers? And
I even saw this one yesterday and I didn't it's
so hard. I like Lionel huts a lot. He was good. Um,
I like uh, I like the whole Flanders family. I
think Ned's a great complex character, like the one where

(25:46):
he has the nervous breakdown. Yeah, and it turns out
he was part of a spanking protocol research study. I
like it when he's occasionally ripped. Yes, well he is
all the time because sometimes he's wearing a shirt. Well,
clearly different when like when when he's in the ski
suit than when he's in his sweater. Yeah, that's most hilarious.
Stupid sexy Flanders. What about yours? I'm gonna go with

(26:10):
a cop out. I'm gonna go with a pair with
Ralphin and Chief Wigham. Yeah, they're good, pretty good. Or
Smithers and Flanders. I mean that's those two that are
hard to beat as a as a duo. I mean
you can't leave out Seymour Skinner yeah boo yeah, or Barney.
We can keep doing this for hours. Actually, I like
mo are you a mo fame? Yeah? Huge mo fame? Okay,

(26:33):
all right, we could do this for hours. Go ahead, Uh, Chuck,
do you have a job outside of the podcast? Um?
I do. I'm the chef and housekeeper. At my home.
I think I mean here. Oh no, do you not
since when? Oh? Well yeah, sure we write stuff? Yeah

(26:54):
right now, blog right quizzes? Do? Uh? We we manage Facebook?
Can Twitter? We managed the stuff? You should know? Brandon? Uh,
what do you want written on your tombstone? I don't
you go ahead? How about died tragically rescuing his family
from the wreckage of a destroyed sinking battleship. That is suspicion.

(27:14):
You're gonna say that. Yeah, that's a good one. Um.
Oh that was Kelly Cronly. I'm sorry, and Drew Clinkole
asked about The Simpsons. Thanks Drew and Kelly on my tombstone.
I want to say what? Uh this is from trash

(27:34):
Goblin Toby? Is this from Twitter? I guess it is.
Have you seen Hodgeman's mustache in real life? And is
it as scary as I have heard it is? We've
both seen Hodgman's mustache in real life. It accidentally brushed
my shoulder. I was like, like, how did that happen? Uh?
It is not scary. I think John wears it well. Yeah,

(27:57):
and it's not an ironic mustache. He's grown his hair
out a little bit. He turned off hippie, hasn't it? Yeah,
it's kind of fun. He's like, I like it. Uh,
let's see it. Could it be? This is from How
Awesome is Joe? A k A Joe on Twitter? Okay,
could it actually be possible for human to be raised
by apes? Like Tarzan? I would say the answer is

(28:20):
undeniably yes. Yeah, And I'm gonna wind it up for
my last one with um something. People ask a lot
what does c O A mean? And that it's from
Joseph Gubbles, do not explain it. That's a trick. He's
been trying to figure it out forever and if he
can't do it on his own, he has to figure

(28:41):
it out on his own, Chuck, or else he's never
gonna learn. All right. Uh sorry Joseph, but that was
a SmackDown. Um, what's our favorite episode? Chuck? Of what
of stuff? You should know? I thought were on the
Simpson Oh man, I get asked this a lot I have.
It's always different today. I'm gonna go with um Lobotomyes,

(29:04):
it's a good one. Nothing, none of them. It's there's
just so many. I know, it's hard to choose. Like
I'll look through occasionally in spot ones they're like, oh,
how's it going. I don't think that because we're always
assets and always say the same like five things like
who lobotomy's body, farms, cannibalism, you know what. Um, I've

(29:27):
recently listened to what is the FDA regular herbs. I
think I was telling you good and that is worth
listening to again. All Right, some people you know are
making their way through again. They've already made it through,
and they've made it through. They're making it through again
the whole catalog. I'm looking at you. OMG, Chris, there's
a name for people like that, Josh Massacus. Super fans,

(29:52):
same thing. Yes, if you are a super family want
to hear from you always. We're pretty friendly guys, so
we'll say hi back usually. UM. If we don't, don't
take it personally, keep saying high a lot of them. Twitter. Uh,
that's s y s K Podcast is our Twitter handle.
We're on Facebook at facebook dot com slash stuff You

(30:15):
should know um and you can send us email like
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(30:40):
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