Battleground LIVE: Trump Is Surging w/ Savage Rich Baris

Tonight on Battleground LIVE:

In the arena: Rich Baris, Director of Big Data Poll and host of ‘Inside the Numbers’

• Trump assassination attempt update

• Comprehensive Review of the 2024 state of the race

• Senate Map Review

• BRAND NEW Polling from Rich Baris

 

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Follow Sean on Twitter - @SeanParnellUSA

Get your Battleground apparel at www.officialseanparnell.com

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See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:03):
Warning Europe about to enter the arena and join the
Battle to save America with your host Sean Parnell. Good evening, America,
Welcome to battle Ground live from sea to Shining Sea
and everybody in between. Welcome, Patriots, got a huge show

(00:25):
for you today. We've got Savage Rich Baris on deck.
And by the way, by the way, he has got
brand new polling, I mean, hot off the presses, brand
new polling for us to look at. We're gonna do
an electoral college breakdown. Obviously he's gonna get a smart

(00:46):
on his latest poll. We're going to go through some
of the battleground states and look at the Senate and
who might control that. If you've been watching this show
for the for the past year, which I know that
many of you dedicated members og members of the battle Crew,
you've been doing that, then you know. But I believe
that we stand a greater chance of holding the Senate

(01:07):
than we do the House of Representatives. The Senate map
for Republicans is very favorable this go around, and that's
a really, really good thing. But Savage Rich Barris on deck.
But before we get to that, make sure you smash
that like button, that little green thumb beneath the video
smash it. It helps us make the leader board. And
as my very salty producer, Extraordinary Brock would tell you

(01:33):
that we've been on the leader board I think almost
every show now and again that's a testament to all
of you. Remember remember, remember that this is your show
and it always will be. And as the audience grows,
that will never change.

Speaker 2 (01:49):
It just won't.

Speaker 1 (01:51):
So we got some stuff I want to hit right
off the top before we get to Savage Rich. Another
school shooting, a school shooting in Georgia, for dead, nine
wounded at Appalashi High School in Barrow County, Georgia. Suspect
is in custody. A shooter is a fourteen year old
kid named Colt Gray. He's going to be tried as

(02:14):
an adult. But I've got to tell you, first of all,
my heart and my thoughts and my prayers go out
to the families of all of those who lost loved ones,
or to the children that found themselves caught in what
must have been a hellish, chaotic, horrible traumatic time. As

(02:36):
a nation, in these moments, it is critically important for
our nation to put politics aside in collectively mourn as
a society for these families who lost children or spouses
who lost husbands, wives. But unfortunately, and again, this is

(02:59):
something that I place solely at the feet of the
disgusting commie radical left. They have taken to politicizing all
most every single issue, and the issue of shootings in
this country is no different. This shooting happened maybe four

(03:20):
hours ago, five hours ago tops. The sheriff law enforcement
officers just had a press conference announcing the details that
I just read to you. But these soulless life loser
democrats are already out there politicizing this. And again, when
I say politicizing it, let me be crystal clear here.

(03:43):
They are trying to push a political narrative. They are
trying to move the progressive football down the field. And
the bodies of those victims are not even cold yet.
It's horrific, and I'm telling you it's evil, and it
was normalized under Barack Obama when he was president. But
look at Kamala on stage politicizing this tragedy already.

Speaker 3 (04:06):
So before I begin, I do want to say a
few words about this tragic shooting that took place this
morning in winder Georgia. We're still gathering information about what happened,
but we know that there were multiple fatalities and injuries.
And you know, our hearts are with all the students,

(04:29):
the teachers, and their families, of course, and we are
grateful to the first responders and the law enforcement that
we're on the scene. But this is just a senseless
tragedy on top of so many senseless tragedies. And it's
just outrageous that every day in our country, in the
United States of America, that parents have to send their

(04:50):
children to school worried about whether or not their child
will come home alive. It's senseless, it is We've got
to stop it, and we have to end this epidemic
of gun violence in our country once and for all.
You know, it doesn't have to be this way. It
doesn't have.

Speaker 4 (05:10):
To be this way.

Speaker 1 (05:12):
Just last week, I dredged up footage of Kamala Harris
from twenty nineteen arguing on stage to take police officers
out of schools, to diminish the amount of protection that
our children have in schools. Now, in a perfect world,
would we need cops at schools, of course not.

Speaker 4 (05:33):
But the world is.

Speaker 1 (05:34):
Far from perfect, and it is so important for policymakers
to approach the world as it is today, not as
not as how we would like it to be. There
was a policy posal and a law proposed in Georgia
in twenty fourteen that would have paid teachers in schools
who volunteered for this an extra ten thousand dollars a year,

(05:58):
and they would state would training to carry a firearm
in school to combat school shootings.

Speaker 2 (06:05):
That's just like this.

Speaker 1 (06:07):
The superintendent of this school district rejected that. And of
course there are reports out there today as well that
say that the school had advanced warning of this shooting
ahead of time, a phone call earlier in the morning
that said that the school was at risk for shooting.
So as facts continue to come out on this, I'll

(06:28):
keep talking to you about it. But these grulish Democrats
just can't stop themselves from politicizing a tragedy. It wasn't
just Kamala, but it was the worst press secretary in
the history of the world. Of course, a dei hire
KJP from the White House press room as well politicizing this.

Speaker 5 (06:44):
Listen, we continue to call on Congress to do something,
to do something. We need universal background checks, we need
ban to ban assault weapons and high capacity magazines, require
safe storage of firearms, invest in violence prevention programs, and

(07:06):
pass a national red flag law. Enough is enough, and
I cannot say this.

Speaker 3 (07:14):
Enough.

Speaker 5 (07:14):
Which is enough is enough? We cannot allow this to
happen in our communities.

Speaker 1 (07:22):
Enough is enough. I cannot say this enough, enough is enough.
None of the things that Kamala Harris or KJP or
any of these commi hack democrats are proposing would actually
prevent a tragedy like this from happening.

Speaker 2 (07:40):
None of it.

Speaker 1 (07:42):
What they are proposing would punish somebody like me, somebody
like Commander Melanie, or any one of you, law abiding
gun owners. Millions upon millions of law abiding gun owners
in this country who have never committed a crime and
don't intend to ever commit a crime, and are safe
gun owners. These laws disproportionately harm you, and we should

(08:06):
therefore be suspect of any law pushed by these communist
thugs and power that punish the law abiding instead of
the criminals who actually commit crimes. A society that does
that does not last long. When we are punishing law
abiding citizens for the actions of criminals, policy itself is

(08:29):
upside down. It absolutely should not happen but what a
sad state of affairs that we have here in this
country right now, where collectively as a country, only half
of the country a conservative Republican constitutionalists take a moment
out of their day and pray for those family members

(08:50):
and those parents who are receiving a call that every
single parent dreads. Anybody that has children, raised children, has grandkids,
you dread a call like that, fear it every single day.
And these parents are getting a call like that tonight.
Somewhere in America are getting a call like that tonight.
And what they don't need are soulless, loser democrats at

(09:13):
podiums politicizing their child's death. What they need is a
country to unify and rally around them and mourn with them.
That's what they desperately need, and moving forward, I pray
for leadership in this country that will do just that,

(09:35):
because to me, I feel like we are on an
untenable path. We are so polarized right now, and by
the way, not the fault of the right. The right
is just starting to wake up and fight back. We
are where we are in this nation today because of
the radical left and the weak, spineless, loser Republicans who

(09:57):
have done nothing to stop they're onslaught their quest to
fundamentally transform this country. Weak Republicans are just as much
responsible for where we are in this country as these radical,
commie thug Democrats. But I'm so tired of the left

(10:19):
politicizing tragedies all in an attempt to disarm you, because
they know that if they can disarm you, then you're
much easier to control. And what did I talk about
yesterday in my opening, It's all Democrat Republican. It's all
about to the people who are really calling the shots,
it's all about the illusion of choice.

Speaker 2 (10:42):
Nicki Haley, Joe Biden. Nicki Haley Conservative, Joe Biden Liberal.

Speaker 1 (10:45):
But at the end of the day, they are the
same on every major issue of substance that matters to
all of the people who are pulling the strings the
illusion of choice. Never forget that it's all about control.
The Second Amendment. We've got to defend it at all costs,
and we can't let them. We can't let them disarm us.

(11:08):
An armed society is a polite society. If you're armed,
have the ability to protect yourself and protect your family
from a tyrannical government, you are a citizen. If you
are not, you are a subject, and come hell or
high water, we can never allow that to happen in
this country. By the way, By the way, before I

(11:30):
move on from this, the people who were bragging about
being the last person in the room, whether it's Kamala
Harris or KJP whither. The people who left tens of
thousands of guns to the Taliban are now proposing that
they disarm us. Well, you know what, come and freaking
take them. That ain't happening. Okay, I gotta talk to

(11:50):
you about this New York Post story before we get
Savage rich on. But this New York Post headline, I'm
telling you this is good. If you haven't heard it already,
I mean, it's gonna blow your mind. Or maybe it
won't because maybe you're just so used to shit like
this happening now nothing surprises you. I know that if
I told this story to Brock and my salty producer extraordinaire,

(12:13):
he would probably say, you know, as bad as that
story is, does it really surprise you.

Speaker 2 (12:17):
He said this to me many times, and.

Speaker 1 (12:20):
Each and every time in response, I say, you know what, No,
it doesn't surprise me at all. So the headline from
the New York Post, most agents guarding Trump during the
assassination attempt were Homeland security personnel who took two hour
online webinar. This is from Senator Josh Holly. The article
goes on Senator Josh Holly said he's been informed by

(12:44):
whistleblowers that most of the agents assigned to protect Donald
Trump during the assassination attempt at is Butler Rally in
Pennsylvania in July, we're homeland security personnel who had minimal
protective training. Instead of having dozens of Secret Service agents
on his detail for the July thirteenth rally, Trump was
mostly guarded by homeland security agents who only received online

(13:07):
webinar training before the event. Holly, Republican, Missouri, said in
an interview on Jesse Waters Primetime Tuesday Evening. And this
is a quote from Josh Holly. A two hour online webinar,
and I'm told that half of the time the sounds
of the webinar didn't even work, Holly claims, So think
about this. The former president of the United States is

(13:29):
sent on stage. Most of the people there are not trained,
they're not qualified, they only got a webinar training, and
that didn't even work.

Speaker 2 (13:39):
He scoffed. He said, it's absolutely outrageous.

Speaker 1 (13:41):
So we've been talking about for over a month now,
how none of this makes sense.

Speaker 2 (13:49):
We even did a breakdown.

Speaker 1 (13:51):
I think I had Savage Rich on the show while
we were watching the Secret Service coalesce on him.

Speaker 2 (13:55):
And yes, of course they were brave.

Speaker 1 (13:57):
They were willing to put themselves ian a bullet to
protect Trump.

Speaker 2 (14:01):
That's not in question.

Speaker 1 (14:03):
But hey, we don't get to make mistakes out there
on protective details. Yeah, I was just in the infantry.
I'm a combat better and I'm not a Secret Service guy.
But the enemy just has to be right one single time.
We gotta be perfect every single time. Otherwise people that
we protect, soldiers that are under our command, they lose
their life. And it took those Secret Service agents would

(14:24):
come to find out that they're not Secret Service agents
at all, just Apartment of Homeland Security agents with webinar training.

Speaker 2 (14:32):
If that.

Speaker 1 (14:34):
It took them forever to get Trump off the stage
and into an armored vehicle and off of the X.
It took them an extraordinarily long time. We covered the
whole thing on this show. Well you know why it
took them a long time. One they weren't Secret Service agents. Two,
they were Homeland Security agents pulled that were pulled off

(14:56):
of child exploitation cases who took an online way about
protective training. So Trump, the most threatened man on the
face of the planet, just so happened to have a
Secret Service detail pulled from him, diverted to Joe Biden,
who was in Pittsburgh at the same day. She had

(15:17):
twelve or thirteen actual Secret Service agents on her person
that day.

Speaker 2 (15:21):
Trump had.

Speaker 1 (15:24):
Homeland Security augmentees who had online webinar training. And you
expect me to believe that this is just all a coincidence. Again,
I talk about this ad nauseum, but it's a conspiracy theory.
To think that everything just went wrong. It's absolutely insane.
And as more information comes out, the more I'm entrenched in.

Speaker 2 (15:44):
This belief system.

Speaker 1 (15:46):
And of course, I'm sure you saw the new Russia
collusion hoax, the Department of Justice coming out in Merrick
Garland coming out saying that, oh, there's Russia interference in
this election. Look complete bullshit. I don't believe a word
of it. You shouldn't either. I'm sure that you don't
even need me telling you that. But this, I think

(16:07):
just shows you how desperate the Democrats are becoming. And
we've got Savage Rich Barris on deck and we'll talk
a hell of a lot more about this. But Rich
and I have been telling you for some time, don't
trust the public polls. This is a propaganda operation, a

(16:27):
astro turf operation to make Kamala feel more popular than
she really is.

Speaker 2 (16:32):
The public polls are a disaster. We've said that.

Speaker 1 (16:35):
The internal polling is far, far worse for Kamala, and
I think that that's coming to fruition now. And I
think they're having to cook up Russia collusion ten point
zero because they know that Kamala is not doing well. Okay,
without further ado, let's bring on my friend, director of
Big Data poll and host of Inside the Numbers, Savage

(16:56):
Rich Barris. Welcome, my friend.

Speaker 4 (17:00):
What's up, buddy?

Speaker 2 (17:01):
You got to come on with like a guitar one time,
you know right over there.

Speaker 4 (17:05):
Actually, you know you've.

Speaker 2 (17:08):
Told me that you're a guitar player. You know I
played guitar too. We should.

Speaker 1 (17:12):
I wonder if the audience would like, you know, some
conservative jam sessions here on wrong.

Speaker 6 (17:17):
Oh, I'll tell you what, man, I'll do it, I'll
do it. I had a speaking thing once and I
did have my goal top and I didn't have my
am though was a different amp.

Speaker 4 (17:32):
But what are you gonna do?

Speaker 6 (17:33):
I brought it along because I just I was in
the middle of one of my crazy finger exercises forever phases.

Speaker 4 (17:39):
And I played the Godfather for everybody once.

Speaker 6 (17:41):
It was pretty cool. I got that from Slash though.
Actually I saw him play it back like years ago.
I think I was like fifteen. I was like, whoa,
Like it was amazing, and uh yeah, I mean I
love I love that sound.

Speaker 4 (17:56):
You know.

Speaker 1 (17:57):
You know what though rich like I think people, I
think you BLI minds man, because Polsters tend to be like.

Speaker 2 (18:02):
Well we kind of look at the cross cabs on
these poles.

Speaker 1 (18:05):
And if you're busting out at Gibson less Paw, I
think you would really you'd rally people to you know,
barras or It's true.

Speaker 6 (18:16):
It's totally true. I actually I was thinking, like, I
have this case over there. I don't know how you
store yours, but like it's a stand up it it's
like eight guitars.

Speaker 4 (18:26):
I don't like it sitting there like that.

Speaker 6 (18:28):
I feel like the neck is gonna warp or something
like I want to put it back in the case,
scaring me.

Speaker 4 (18:32):
But it's pretty. So it's like it's like a piece
of furniture. Man, it's a fit.

Speaker 6 (18:35):
It's a Gibson Custom Shop fifty seven gold top like
made how they made it in fifty seven originally, like
or how they wired it everything. I mean, it's crazy,
but I swapped out the pickups. I'm an ow and
Aco two kind of guy like them. I like that
mid range magnet and you know I love it. Yeah,
man it we should do that.

Speaker 1 (18:54):
Listen to this guy talking about guitars like he's like,
he's I don't know, Santana.

Speaker 4 (19:03):
I like my own Lama pedal and everything. Brother, I did.

Speaker 6 (19:06):
I ad an led to that puppy and I changed
the resistor because again I like mid range, so like
I swap the resist two resistors out of it to
make it, to make it sound more like the way
I want to sound.

Speaker 2 (19:19):
You know.

Speaker 1 (19:20):
So people were saying, people are saying in the chat
race saying in the chat that he would do the drums.
He'd played the drums, and we got McRoy nation in
the chat right now we've got the battle crew in
the chat. We have people volunteering to play instruments for
the band. We could have a pretty cool power trio.

Speaker 4 (19:34):
We could My son plays bass too. I kid you not.

Speaker 2 (19:38):
Oh man, it was really cool.

Speaker 4 (19:40):
He's he We had a lot of fun together.

Speaker 1 (19:42):
You could have Commander Melanie and Savage Laura on stage
banging little tambourines.

Speaker 4 (19:47):
Off like the monkeys. Remember the monkeys got sleep right?

Speaker 2 (19:53):
You know?

Speaker 6 (19:53):
He said those two girls and they were pretty so
everybody wanted to watch. So even if we suck, we'll
just put those to.

Speaker 2 (20:03):
Media. Can see listen, you're watching this show.

Speaker 1 (20:07):
You get Savage Rich Bearris, cheer up, Sleepy ge Like
singing the song within seconds of them being on the show.

Speaker 2 (20:13):
You don't get this anywhere else, no, sir.

Speaker 1 (20:17):
So okay, So there's so much I want to get
your thoughts on, and we'll get into the polling in
a second. But what do you make of you know,
first of all, there's this tragic mass shooting in Georgia.
Children lose their life, two teachers lose their life, two
kids lose their life, and Kamala and KJP and these soulless,
hacked democrats are already out there pushing a political narrative like, hey,

(20:41):
we got to be we gotta take the guns, we
need red flag laws, and of course none of those
things would solve any any of these shootings. But like,
it just drives me crazy that we've normalized politicizing these tragedies.
Of course it started with Barack Obama, But what do
you make of that?

Speaker 2 (20:59):
I mean, it's absolutely ridiculous.

Speaker 6 (21:01):
What I always find horrendous about this issue is really
what you just said. The data doesn't matter right at all.
They just don't care about politicizing the deaths of children.
I got to be honest with you. While I mean
I'm a parent, you're a parent. My heart bleeds for
the parents of like Sandy Hook, But the way they

(21:23):
exploit the deaths of those kids, I mean, you can
barely click on a YouTube ad that's political in nature
without seeing an ad from those people, and you know,
one parent after the other. And while my heart bleeds
for them, it's I mean, it's sad that, like you
can't have an honest conversation shown the country's been around
since you know, we're going on two and a half centuries.

(21:45):
The Second Amendment was ratified in December of that year, right,
I mean it's been around forever.

Speaker 4 (21:52):
It was. In fact, it did, in fact cover everything.

Speaker 6 (21:56):
You know, you're idiots like Joe Biden say, oh, they
didn't mean anything you wanted. You didn't see you you
did back ass, right? I mean there was a there
were multiple wealthy families that built ironclads stupid. I mean
they had warships, private warships.

Speaker 4 (22:13):
Uh, there was.

Speaker 6 (22:15):
I would like to read a lot of primary sources
and more than one people, more than one person would
joke about Alexander Hamilton being a monarch in like a
monarchist by nature and always wanting a standing army.

Speaker 4 (22:27):
So they're like, you know, basically joking.

Speaker 6 (22:29):
Modern day would be like you and I saying, man,
I better buy a cannon because this guy's nuts, you know,
Like that's.

Speaker 4 (22:34):
The way it was, you know, and none of that matters.

Speaker 6 (22:37):
So what is why if the Second Amendment was ratified
that long ago, why are we having these problems now?
Because mass shootings are a modern day phenomena that I
don't like to repeat it. You know, certain things, right,
the University of Texas, Right, I'm not going to say
his name, but that's a modern phenomena.

Speaker 4 (22:56):
After the sixties generation after the Flower Child.

Speaker 2 (23:00):
There's a lot to this rich.

Speaker 1 (23:01):
I mean, there's like the fact your point of like,
I'm not going to say the name I you know,
I you don't want to just the notoriety. You have
to make them infamous. I think we have to have
a conversation about you know, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors SSR
eyes and these these drugs that we give to kids.

(23:23):
I'm telling you, having spent time in a clinical psychology
PhD program looking at some of this stuff, and and
and looking at the research where they talk about the
drugs effect on certain people. All they will tell you
if you look actually in the research is that, well,
we don't it. Results may vary for the individual, but
in the aggregate over time we see slight changes. And

(23:45):
I'm like, well, if you're going to a psychiatrist and
asking for jour And by the way, I'm not like
bashing psychiatric medication, I'm not doing that. I'm just saying
that maybe we should be a little bit more careful
about what we're prescribing to our children, whose brains are
changing all the time. You know, like your brain's changed,
isn't Finally, like fully intact until you're in your mid twenties,

(24:07):
giving kids. All these different drugs and neurotransmitters are changing
in their brain. Who knows what homeostasis is. So I
think you gotta have a conversation about that. I don't
think that the conversation is it needs to be around
curtailing other people's freedom.

Speaker 4 (24:23):
I mean, couple that with fatherlessness and all the other
base problems that we have in this society. Again, I mean,
it's a modern phenomena that started in with the sixties
generation and before that, the before and again, I shouldn't
really say the event because listen, folks, Before I even
say this, it's important to remember that the academics on

(24:45):
this and law enforcement have been telling media this for years.

Speaker 6 (24:48):
There's what's called a contagion event. When you name these people,
when you give it coverage, all you care about is
your political agenda. If there's another inspired event because of
this event today, if there's another one in seven to
ten days, the likelihood that that event will be even
dead layer is almost a certainty. That's how likely it is.
And it's called the contagent event. The media is the contagion.

(25:12):
The politicians who are exploiting it are the contagions. So
like the Kamala Harris is, if there's a dead kid
next week, it's her fault, like because you're making these
people and you want the notoriety getting that they saw
someone else getting last week. So the copycat event, or
what used to be called the Columbine effect.

Speaker 4 (25:31):
Is more deadly.

Speaker 6 (25:32):
And Fed's local law enforcement academia has been telling these
pieces of that's for years and they just don't care.

Speaker 4 (25:40):
They don't care.

Speaker 6 (25:41):
But before on the mass shooting events, the most deadly
mass killing event that had to do with children was
actually a bomb in a school and there's nothing to
stop people from going back and doing that, and in
fact was in a state where they try to heavily
restrict firearm purchases and use. And I want to get
you know, we can go down that path and Rabbital

(26:03):
into a whole show on that. But unfortunately this is
one of those tragic issues where politicians don't care. They
don't care about the dead kids in Sandy Hook. Dude,
the only reason why they care is because they get
to exploit it. Andrew and Florida found this out real quick.
Oh yeah, get in front of the camera. You know,
we really want to we really want to elevate your
daughter and you know, make her, you know, to remember

(26:26):
her and honor her memory.

Speaker 4 (26:27):
And he found out real quick it's just bullshit. All
they want to do is use you.

Speaker 6 (26:32):
And it's sad because a lot of grieving parents they
don't know about the Second Amendment, they don't know anything
about what we're talking about right now. They're hurting that
want someone to blame, and the anra is to blame,
you know, and unfortunately that's easier than tackling the real
problems in this society, which is that we are suffering
from mass mental illness. And it is something that transpired

(26:52):
over the course of the half a century. You know,
our family units fell apart, our civil society fell apart,
and we are now suffering the consequences of that. Again,
the Second Amendment went through five, four or five generations
before ever became a problem. You know, I mean, get
out of here, man, come on, come on, we're the problem.

Speaker 2 (27:14):
You know, it's a cultural issue.

Speaker 1 (27:16):
It is, without a doubt, a complex cultural issue, and
you want you have to have the wherewithal to tackle
it instead of making these dishonest arguments where you're scapegoating
things that don't. It's not really it's not really the
root cause of the actual issue itself. I agree completely.
What do you make of the story out of the
New York Post and Josh Holly and the whistleblowers that

(27:37):
you know, this Trump assassination stuff, Rich It gets worse.

Speaker 2 (27:41):
All the time.

Speaker 1 (27:42):
Now we find out that almost all the people on
site with Trump that day and Butler were Homeland Security augmentees,
which we knew. But the only yet training they had
was an online webinar that wasn't even really functioning, and.

Speaker 4 (27:56):
We could tell that.

Speaker 6 (27:56):
We told people that that, Like, I think your first
show after this happened, you came on my show because you,
of course were there, and we discussed this.

Speaker 4 (28:05):
Folks.

Speaker 6 (28:06):
We knew by their their outfit, we knew by their peril,
we knew by their gear immediately that that was what
that was. And I'm telling you, I think the news
only gets worse from here. I think people need to
really prepare themselves to face the most ugly truth if
this ever comes out. However, that being said, the impaneling
of a grand jury will most certainly prohibit you know,

(28:28):
or at least grossly slow down any congressional investigation or
attempt to get to the truth, because now they'll just
sit down in front of the congressman as soon as
they answer the question. I'm sorry, Congressman or congresswoman.

Speaker 4 (28:40):
I can't comment on that. That's part of an ongoing investigation, exactly.
I can't deal with that. I mean, we have to
tackle this, Sean.

Speaker 6 (28:48):
This is like not a real and I hate the
word democracy, but this is not a real, self self
governing society if these very powerful alphabet and other agencies
of the state can simply use that, and we may
put sources and methods at risk if we answer that question.

(29:10):
Those two excuses are bull and they got to go.
You cannot just hide behind two excuses and then have
a free for all.

Speaker 4 (29:18):
You're not the sovereign in this country or you're not supposed.

Speaker 2 (29:21):
To be rich. I said yesterday on the Hurdle.

Speaker 1 (29:24):
After the Reagan assassination attempt, we knew everything there was
to know about Hinckley two days after they at an
age where there was far less information at her fingertips.
So today we know nothing nothing about this except for
whistleblowers who are so fed up with the system they're saying,
Oh my god, these were homeland security agents with online
webinar training and protection. I mean, are you effing kidding me?

(29:46):
Can you imagine what our enemies think right now? Can
you imagine like the most powerful protective agency in the
world once was the United States.

Speaker 4 (29:53):
I'll tell you what they think. I mean, Sean, let's
be honest. I'll tell you what they think.

Speaker 6 (29:58):
The United States of America the biggest national bunch, I
would say, the biggest nation of hypocrites to ever live
on the planet. They tried to kill Donald Trump, and
they're going through this charade as if the rest of
the world doesn't know what happened. You don't think the
world leaders, You don't think everyone from She's regime to
Putin's regime knows they tried to kill Donald Trump. We're

(30:18):
the only idiots still sitting here going through this charade,
pretending like it wasn't the state. They found a mark,
and they pushed the mark to try to kill the guy,
and they turned their back and they left the window
open because they know they're gonna lose an election and
they can't do anything else. They tried prosecuting him. They
are trying to imprison him. Oh hell, let's just try

(30:40):
to kill him. This wouldn't be the first time, folks,
It wouldn't even be the second time. It would just
be the first president, I mean, well, the second president,
but first former president. And then he's countless other figures.
And I got news for you, it won't be the last.

Speaker 4 (30:56):
Because of what I just said.

Speaker 6 (30:57):
They can hide behind to bullshit answer and nobody will
ever get punished for it.

Speaker 4 (31:03):
Nobody.

Speaker 6 (31:03):
Trump was going to release the JFK stuff. Mike Pompeo
ran some crap in his ear and convinced him not
to do it. If Trump gets in again, thank god,
there won't be a Mike Pompeo to tell him no,
and he's gonna do it. But I think again, people
need to realize that crap is for you. That's a
show for you. The Vladimir Putins, the Kim Jongs, the

(31:26):
you know, Shijing Pings, they all know. The only one
who doesn't know is you.

Speaker 2 (31:31):
God.

Speaker 1 (31:32):
Okay, stay right there, Rich, let me do an ad
read and we'll be right back. We'll talk politics and
full spectrum breakdown of the twenty twenty four race. Talk
about your new poll when we come back, Okay, good brother,
stay right there, my friend. Okay, let's bring Savage Rich
Bears back. Savage Rich, welcome back to the show. So
let me set up the conversation like this. Got reports

(31:53):
now that the Harris campaign is giving approximately twenty five
million towards down ballot races. Now, Kamala Harris is campaigning
right in New Hampshire, She's in Virginia, she's in Minnesota.
So you couple those two things. You want to get
a sense on how a campaign is doing. Look at

(32:15):
where they're going and how they're spending their money.

Speaker 2 (32:19):
Two things.

Speaker 1 (32:20):
She's campaigning and what are traditionally safe Democrat states and
giving money to down ballot races.

Speaker 2 (32:27):
To me, it's a cover.

Speaker 4 (32:30):
I'm sorry, I had.

Speaker 1 (32:31):
I'm just saying she's clearly to me that that's not
a winning campaign.

Speaker 6 (32:37):
Folks, when a presidential campaign is losing, okay, or they're
worried about what should be safe space save states, right,
they will pretend that they are helping down ballid races.

Speaker 4 (32:50):
Though you'll even twenty five million.

Speaker 6 (32:52):
As you know, Sean has Trump changed to a presidential campaign,
They will give a token amount of money to make
it look like the effort is re when in fact
it's not. It is to boost themselves. She has one
path to the presidency, let's get real, and that path
is to pluck off one or more of the northern
Midwest states. She is down in Pennsylvania and by the way,

(33:16):
most of the internals, but now even publics, even the
two native Michigan polsters. So take the CNN poll and
stick it, all right, it's a very obvious. I mean,
I don't even want to be too hard on them
because I know what I'm seeing in the field.

Speaker 4 (33:31):
So they have Pennsylvania very clearly.

Speaker 6 (33:34):
I mean, they just didn't want to lean into Trump,
but very clearly it looks good for Trump. And they
they have Wisconsin and Michigan, with Wisconsin more Harris than Michigan.

Speaker 4 (33:44):
And that is a telltale. That is textbook. I screwed
up the Midwest because it never votes like that.

Speaker 6 (33:49):
All right, that's a polling mistake headed your way, and
it's not their fault. It's hard, all right, in all seriousness, folks,
These Midwestern states and Florida, they're differenticult. There's a lot
of you know, weird things that go into it. But
the bottom line is the internal polls are not great
for her. That's the truth in the two native Michigan polsters,

(34:09):
Glen Garreff Group and Epic MRA, who are the go
to media state polsters, and all of us have our
own native states that we pull in, know right, Mine
is Florida and North Carolina. Now right, I've always done
very good job in North Carolina. I know the state
Florida for fifteen years was my native polling state. Glen
Garreff Group, it's Michigan, Epic MRA, Mitchell Research, It's Michigan.

(34:34):
These are the people everyone really looks at when a
public poll comes out.

Speaker 4 (34:38):
The native posters in Michigan have Trump up. So this
is her last chance.

Speaker 6 (34:45):
She can pluck off Michigan, maybe try to get Pennsylvania,
but she's got to run the table, and she cannot
lose New Hampshire or Minnesota or Virginia right, which is
within three points by the way, the old dominion should
not be within three points.

Speaker 4 (35:00):
She cannot lose those states.

Speaker 6 (35:02):
So she is making this cover story about helping down
ballid races. They'll even spin it and say, oh, we
think we're gonna take the House over it or the Senator.
It's bs she's covering because she needs to shore up
the state. Her own VP is from when she first
did the switcheroo with Biden. She had a ten point

(35:23):
lead in the KTSU Paul all right, now it's five.

Speaker 4 (35:26):
She lost half her lead in a month. So in
a blue state, in a blue state.

Speaker 1 (35:32):
So I mean, there's all this talk or at least
these Democrat operators are you know, she's gonna pick up
states in the sun belt right like they thought Nevada, Arizona, Georgia.
And we got a question here from SPA and the
chat on the screen Carrie Lake, Reuben Gallego. People are
saying Carrie Lake is down and that she's the now

(35:53):
she's a terrible candidate. Apparently she said something about a
couple of sheriffs out there, called one of the sheriffs
the coward. So theriff's association endorsed against her, so they
endorse Trump and then Gallego Mark, Yeah, well, I don't
I don't know.

Speaker 6 (36:07):
You should know better, Mark, Honestly, you're a good guy,
but uh, you know that you should know better, and
for you to do that, I'm actually really if that's
who it is.

Speaker 1 (36:16):
I don't know that I I just know that a
sheriff associated. I don't know if it has anything to
do with him.

Speaker 4 (36:20):
He does have poll there, so he does have poll
with that.

Speaker 6 (36:23):
So if that turns out to be the case, I'd
be very disappointed in Mark only.

Speaker 4 (36:27):
Because you know, I mean, the.

Speaker 6 (36:31):
Man we're in the grindstone now, yeah, I mean, you
don't play around with you know, your own feelings when
the country is on the line.

Speaker 2 (36:38):
Mark, Mark endorsed Kerry I mean, he endorsed it.

Speaker 4 (36:40):
That's why I'd be like, so, where did this come
from then.

Speaker 1 (36:43):
A sheriff's association, I don't know. I mean they endorsed Trump.
They endorsed Trump, and then they endorsed Gallego.

Speaker 6 (36:50):
I haven't pulled it. I haven't pulled it myself yet Arizona.
But I will tell you this, everywhere we're pulling and
it's not Kerry Lake. It's not because Harry Lake is
a uniquely bad candidate. That's actually totally ridiculous. She's actually
one of the sharpest candidates on the campaign trails. She's
very smooth with the media. They're just unbelievably dishonest in

(37:11):
how they cover like they are with every other Republican
but it's not something that's unique to carry Lake.

Speaker 4 (37:16):
All of these candidates are.

Speaker 6 (37:18):
Running behind Donald Trump in our generic ballad, which is
coming out very soon, and we're leaning people, which you know,
if I didn't, we didn't lean the undecideds, I may
think something. I'm glad we did, because I would not
have wanted to not have the information I now had.
Trump is winning the leaners against Kamala Harris, which is
the reverse of the way it was under Biden. He

(37:39):
had a big lead, but he was losing the leaners.
So Biden it would kind of close the gap, but
it was not enough. With Harris. Harris looks like she's
got a little bit of an edge. But then when
you lean people, they're even basically, and it's nationally of course,
Republicans are down there, and when you lean, Democrats are
winning the leaners. All right, So this is a problem.

(37:59):
This is not Kerry Lake's fault. It's not because you know,
I know the McCain team. McCain still wants to do
this crap. I mean, they're just worse than unhelpful. They're saboteurs,
and honestly, I can't wait for them all to be
phased out.

Speaker 4 (38:14):
I really, I just I.

Speaker 6 (38:15):
Can't because they're not helping our politics, like get back
to normal and get back to the what I used
to love about this. They're the worst kind of actors.
But it's not you know Brown, Sam is down badly
in Nevada.

Speaker 2 (38:29):
Brown because he really yeah, he's down.

Speaker 4 (38:31):
Like eight points, dude, that is something I know about.

Speaker 6 (38:33):
Yeah, I mean, that's not And meanwhile Trump is ahead
by like three it's not a huge lead Nevada. But
I know everyone pulls the state differently. We pull it
fairly well. I can see what's going on.

Speaker 2 (38:44):
I thought people were feeling good about Sam Brown.

Speaker 6 (38:46):
And I'm telling you Democrats are running some really dirty shit.
And when I would like to be able to like
share some of this, it's not mine to share. I'm
just doing the work the things they're doing, and it's working,
which is really sad. Like if we're Republicans did the
kind of stuff that they're doing, you would get it,
would get called out. But I can tell you right
now it's Clark County. Sam is not running a strong

(39:08):
as Donald Trump in Clark County in washow It's not
really that different, you know, Although Trump is doing a
little bit better.

Speaker 4 (39:15):
But it's Clark.

Speaker 6 (39:16):
I mean, when you're running five six points behind the
presidential candidate, maybe even a little more on a given
day in Clark County, it's seventy percent of the vote,
it's just there's nowhere else to make that up in
that state. So he's not doing enough to reach out
to these working class Hispanics that are going to vote
for Trump. He's just not And you know it, it's tragic.

(39:38):
But you know, the people don't always vote on how
can I put this? People don't always vote the way
the way you would expect them for the reasons that
you would expect.

Speaker 4 (39:49):
Let me just say that. But again, it's not all
on Sam.

Speaker 6 (39:54):
Like everyone's pretty much running behind Trump everywhere. It's like
very rare do we see candidate that's running ahead. You know,
if if Susan Collins was up for re election, I would
say maybe she'd be running, you know, ahead of Trump
in Maine.

Speaker 4 (40:08):
But that's it, man, I mean, this is this has
been going.

Speaker 6 (40:11):
On for months and months and months and months, and
Republicans just are not doing what they need to do
to correct it. And I want I kind of, you know,
did a thing about this on the show earlier. Today,
they're going to have to decide what's more important to them,
you know, being being you know the K Street and
Wall Street go to people and you know people get
that are resisting this, this change to trump Ism.

Speaker 4 (40:33):
You can't continue this forever. Voters are over this song
and dance.

Speaker 6 (40:38):
You want, you want the benefit of Trump, but you
want to stab them in the back every chance you get.
You want, you want the benefit of the bass, but
you screw them every chance you get.

Speaker 4 (40:48):
You cannot continue this.

Speaker 6 (40:50):
Voters, truth be told, have kind of been over this
since they screwed them on Obamacare, and they've been like
kind of a we really.

Speaker 4 (40:57):
Have no other choice.

Speaker 6 (40:59):
I'm voting for Trump, vote for the Republican down ballad.
And the worst part about it is very misleading. Trump
always gives to the Republican coalition more than it ever
gave to Trump.

Speaker 4 (41:09):
So it looks misleading.

Speaker 6 (41:10):
I think in some areas the candidate, the Republican candidate's
doing better than Trump in sixteen and twenty.

Speaker 4 (41:16):
And it wasn't really case.

Speaker 6 (41:17):
Kelly Ayott, all right, Mark Kirk, everybody ran behind it.
He drugged Pat Toomi over you know, Gary what's his name?
Johnson Wisconsin. Was very smart and he learned though, but
he's not representatives. So even when we ask people in
the Midwest about their impression of, you know, of the

(41:38):
Republican Party, brother, they're not thinking Ron Johnson, you know,
they're thinking Paul Ryant, Mitt Romney. Kind of Republican. That's
gotta stop. Mitch McConnell should have been gone a long
time ago. He is doing so much damage. He really is,
because he's one of the few people in DC that
like every voter, even lower propensity voters, kind of know

(41:58):
and can identify, like Nancy Pelosi was a cancer to
Democrats for years.

Speaker 4 (42:03):
Mitch McConnell for the for the sake of.

Speaker 6 (42:06):
His party, which you if you obviously think your party's
the best direction for the country, then you think that
obviously it would be the.

Speaker 4 (42:14):
Best thing for the country.

Speaker 6 (42:15):
He's putting himself and he's putting his benefactors, and he's
putting his wife's friends in China, and he's putting all
of his benefactors from China ahead of the American public.

Speaker 4 (42:25):
And he is very hated, very hated.

Speaker 6 (42:28):
He cannot he is continuing this image and of Republicans
of the Party of rich white old men, and he
has got to go no matter how many Toulsi Gabbards
in Doris Donald Trump, which of course that's different. Like
so voters see Trump totally different. Like they really are
smart enough to understand that Trump is just using the

(42:49):
Republican Party as a vehicle because he can't run as
a third.

Speaker 4 (42:51):
Party, you know what I'm saying.

Speaker 6 (42:53):
Like they really do get that, and they've got it
for a while, and they've been patient and patient and
patient with the Republican Party and now that just had it.
And that's what's going on here, man, I'm telling you,
and we need to make a long time like when
would you expect it to change? Come?

Speaker 1 (43:09):
So jump to Pennsylvania with me, talk about let's talk
about the Senate race there. I want to also talk
about your your the new poll that you did between
Trump and Kamala nationwide, but in Pennsylvania, like three or
four Poles have seen a couple of you know, Republican
internal polls now with Casey McCormick very one point race
forty six, forty five, forty sixty six, forty seven, forty seven.

(43:31):
I'll tell you, McCormick, you know, he's the best Republican fundraiser.
I think he's raised more money than just about any
other Republican running this cycle. And I can't even tell
you in how many cycles, to be honest, man, he
is raised and that's what it takes in a state
like Pennsylvania. He's raised just it's just an an enormous
sum of money. And he's running a good race. He's

(43:54):
he's working his ass off. Now he's neck and neck
with Casey. Nobody's been neck and neck with Casey like
this ever, I mean going, I mean ever ever. And
now you've got Trump at the top of the ticket.
And I've been arguing this for a long time that
obviously Trump and McCormick are very very different people. You
know who else are very different people. Trump and Pat Toomey,

(44:15):
I mean Pat Toomey voter do convict Donald Trump in
an impeachment. So they won, They won in sixteen, and
I think that McCormick and Trump can win in twenty
twenty four because there's that same energy and synergy on
the ticket.

Speaker 6 (44:29):
What do you think, well, this is working in this
one thing that I'm about to say is going to
work in favor or at least everything that we know about,
you know, these elections in modern America, in the recent memory,
in the last two decades. This is going to work toward,
you know, to the benefit of Republicans. And that is
I just mentioned one, Susan Collins. She is the only

(44:51):
example in modern memory post recession and post Obama. Obama
really started this.

Speaker 4 (44:59):
Very polar environment. There is no other example.

Speaker 6 (45:03):
Of a ticket split during a presidential cycle for US
Senate and president.

Speaker 4 (45:08):
So what do I mean by that?

Speaker 6 (45:10):
You know, if they voted for Donald Trump in Arizona
in twenty sixteen, they voted for Jeff Flake.

Speaker 4 (45:16):
It might have been close, but they voted for Jeff
Flake in sixteen.

Speaker 6 (45:19):
In Pennsylvania they voted for Trump, they voted for Patatoomi,
Ron Johnson, and Wisconsin down the line. Yeah, you know,
there has been no only Susan Collins has won a
race for Senate, a federal senatorial race while the other
party's candidate for president carried the state. You will not
find another example in the modern era. And I'm going

(45:42):
back to like the Obama era. And actually and Harry
Anton had gone over this as well on CNN.

Speaker 4 (45:48):
It's really you could argue.

Speaker 6 (45:50):
It started with like the second half of the nine
to eleven era, but Obama won states that Republicans won.
So you know, that's really like Obama was the hope
and change guy.

Speaker 4 (46:00):
There was still ticket splitting, and then he killed it all.

Speaker 6 (46:04):
I mean, he just turned out to be the worst
divider I think. And yeah, so if there's something that
I will say, and we'll talk about this later, but
like McCormick needs something, just a little something to push
him over.

Speaker 4 (46:19):
But there's no doubt and you know this, you know.

Speaker 6 (46:22):
Six months ago, maybe at this point when I first
pulled that race, McCormick was down badly and a lot
of that had to do with name recognition and a
lot of that he just didn't know him outside of
the from being the guy who ran in the Republican primary.
And there were a lot of Republicans who said they
were going to vote for Bob Casey. And you know this,
I have to tell you this, that is starting to tight.

(46:45):
It's actually getting very tight now, and it's starting to
behave the way that I would have expected it to
behave because again, you will not find all these examples
of you know this, this state voted for Joe Biden,
but voted for the Republican for Senate. You're just not
going to get that.

Speaker 2 (47:00):
All right.

Speaker 4 (47:00):
Next question, by the way, ditto at Arizona.

Speaker 6 (47:02):
That's why Kerry Lake is not going to run thirteen
points behind Donald Trump.

Speaker 4 (47:06):
Yeah, right right, It's not gonna happen.

Speaker 2 (47:09):
All right.

Speaker 1 (47:10):
Last question about states, This one in North Carolina. You
know a little bit about North Carolina. Soil Screen asked
Rich about the governor's race in North Carolina.

Speaker 2 (47:18):
This is Obson, right.

Speaker 4 (47:20):
Yeah, this is another state that the media outlets.

Speaker 6 (47:23):
Have had a very difficult time polling, not just in
presidential cycles, but also in midterm cycles as well.

Speaker 4 (47:31):
If you go back and look, you will see.

Speaker 6 (47:32):
The public polling at ka Hagen in twenty fourteen up
anywhere between three and thirteen points. She lost to Tom Tillis.
Twenty sixteen, Fast forward, Hillary Clinton had six point leads
in polls like the New York Times poll. Namaris poll
was ridiculous. Donald Trump carried it by four points. Fast
forward to twenty eight Yeah, I mean this is just

(47:53):
twenty twenty. Forrester was running against Roy Cooper, who was
an incumbent running for reelection, and the polls had him down.
The Marist is great example survey USA, another one USA today,
another one. They had him down double digits. He lost
by four points. By the way, they had Trump down too.

(48:14):
Cal Cunningham against Tom Tillis that same year Cal cunning
Aham at fifteen point leads in some of these polls.
It was sixteen points in Marist four weeks before the election.

Speaker 2 (48:25):
He lost.

Speaker 4 (48:26):
He lost.

Speaker 6 (48:27):
We were the only ones who consistently showed Ted bud
up in twenty twenty two. In this last past midterm survey, USA,
by the way, had Cherry.

Speaker 4 (48:36):
Beasley plus two.

Speaker 2 (48:38):
She lost.

Speaker 6 (48:38):
So like, that's the poll that I know a lot
of people got concerned about if you're a Republican. It
showed Stein basically crushing Mark Robinson. Again, Republicans fall for
this and the RGA falls for it, and they abandoned
these candidates who could have easily have won. You know,
gun Force wasn't running a great eyed campaign, but he
also was broken.

Speaker 4 (48:58):
Didn't have anybody's health.

Speaker 6 (49:00):
So you know, they like abandon these people who then
pull very close. You know, I mean that year Trump won,
till this one the Supreme Court candidate won and he lost.

Speaker 2 (49:12):
So what about Mark Roberts is he gonna win?

Speaker 4 (49:14):
I well, I yeah, I have, I would. I'm gonna
we will pull this race again really soon.

Speaker 2 (49:19):
Yeah. I really like that guy. I just really liked
that guy.

Speaker 6 (49:24):
Last time we pulled it was like pretty much it
was it's been a while. It was almost after the
like maybe a month after the primary, and we actually
had Robinson up by two. But things have changed a lot.
Other people that we do know who pull decently in
North Carolina also had him up and now they don't.
So But again, I don't trust anyone else's data. I

(49:44):
just gotta be real with you guys, like I always am.
I'm even people that I think do a good job
and are and are like if they make a mistake,
it's like an honest mistake, but they're trying to do
a really good job.

Speaker 4 (49:56):
Everyone thinks North Carolina's the damn research triangle.

Speaker 6 (49:59):
It's notstern. North Carolina is grossly underrepresented in the census.

Speaker 4 (50:03):
They're all waiting for that.

Speaker 6 (50:05):
It was massive state to state migration that was undercounted,
and that is screwing up polsters weights, you know. I mean,
if you have the race close in counties like Hyde County,
because you're waiting so much for and by the way,
it should never be D plus anything anymore. Democrats have
bled registrations in this state for years now and it's

(50:29):
really accelerated. It kind of reminds me of Florida. What
happened in Florida circa twenty sixteen and then it became
like a flood, you know, in the state totally changed
the registration That's what it reminds me of.

Speaker 4 (50:42):
Now. I really would like to pull up myself before
I know what the governor's race.

Speaker 6 (50:45):
But I'll tell you this, Trump's going to carry North
Carolina up this shit with the Harris.

Speaker 2 (50:50):
Plus oos and sixes.

Speaker 6 (50:52):
And this and that, Like, come on, man, come on,
if Nate Owen comes out with a Harris plus anything
in North Carolina, take it to the bank that Trump's
gonna win it by at least four points, because that's
what he did the last two cycles. Bien plus six
identical bullshit.

Speaker 4 (51:09):
You know it's one both times.

Speaker 2 (51:12):
So I know how you feel about models and Nate Silver.

Speaker 1 (51:15):
Nate Silver has Trump up now, but I think two
touchdowns and his mom which is I know, I know
that's he's.

Speaker 6 (51:22):
He's guys, he's baiting you. I'm telling you he does
the same scam every year. I'm telling you he's baiting you.
Don't pay any attention to him. But beyond, let you know,
to say, why he's giving Trump such a a lean
right now is because it's Pennsylvania, folks.

Speaker 4 (51:40):
That everybody knows that Trump is up in Pennsylvania.

Speaker 2 (51:43):
That's what it is. Like, everyone's like, oh my god,
this race is close, This race is close.

Speaker 1 (51:47):
Two Democrat strategists that that Mark Halpern was talking about today,
so that not only is Kamala down in Pennsylvania, she's
likely going to lose. Now here's the thing. We can't
paign like we're ten points down. That's that goes without
saying on this show. So always, I don't want anyone
to give a sense that we're getting complacent around here.

Speaker 2 (52:05):
Absolutely not.

Speaker 1 (52:05):
Just means we campaign even harder and grind Kamala's campaign
into a dust, you know, like a we campaign until
we sprint to the finish.

Speaker 4 (52:15):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (52:15):
But but how do you say the race is a
toss up with Kamala losing or on the brink of
losing Pennsylvania, Because that's everything. If Trump wins Pennsylvania, ninety
six percent chance he makes it back to the White House.

Speaker 2 (52:27):
So you just did a huge pull. You're just out
of the field. Now.

Speaker 1 (52:31):
I saw the sample. I think it's sample size was
over three thousand people or something.

Speaker 4 (52:35):
It's actually technically bigger than that.

Speaker 6 (52:37):
We rebased it and it's been going on for a
long time, so technically it is bigger. The fact is,
you know, we watched it, and we're going to show
people a little trend chart that we really think that's
going to be productive and helpful to understand how this
race went and the response.

Speaker 2 (52:54):
Bias that we saw.

Speaker 4 (52:55):
You'll see it like live right, so clear, you'll see it.

Speaker 6 (53:00):
The bottom line is this thing moved maybe two points
in her direction, really and they you know, it is
bobbing between Trump plus one. The biggest leap she had
was like around two points, a little over two.

Speaker 4 (53:15):
And it's gone now.

Speaker 6 (53:17):
And actually, if I could show you, let me see
if I can pull out good.

Speaker 1 (53:20):
Just so everyone's tracking a good sample size. You want
to be at a minimum. People have said for years
a thousand, but now people kind of say fifteen hundred
is probably better.

Speaker 4 (53:29):
And honestly, we're at three. We're at three, like that
is the minimum, and that may the.

Speaker 1 (53:33):
More the more, the more people you have, the more quote,
the more accurate theoretically a pole should be. That's why
you see a public poll with a sample size of
four hundred, like, take it with a grain of salt.

Speaker 6 (53:46):
Yeah, I mean the bottom line is we can see
the distortion and the data at a thousand responses stupid,
And you're going to get these people who are willing
to take these poles that are going to fill up
what you know, really your quotas, right, you know you
need to talk to X number of people that have
college degrees or don't have college degrees.

Speaker 2 (54:07):
Right, this is what and room this in as much
as you can.

Speaker 6 (54:10):
Yeah, I was just gonna say, so, this is an
interesting dynamic, and I was just working on variables to
make it you know, locals knows what I'm talking about,
to make it clean and to make it easy for
people to see. Right now, we just have the presidential
race up there. I was just about to add the
generic ballad. Is that Let me just see real quick
because I could add that. Yeah, okay, so let me
add that real quick, and I'll restart it so I

(54:34):
can put this in with the rose there's race division
a very a couple of a couple of things that
I thought it was important for people to see right away,
which was certain demographics. We asked about issues. You know,
who do people trust more? Where's the generic? There's the
generic ballad with leaners. Let's go ahead and get rid
of the undecided because you got to get rid of
the undecideds for leaners. Sorry, I'm like kind of doing

(54:56):
this live. Uh okay, it wants me to save the
crossed down all right. Now, we're going to change the
calculations real quick. Bear with me, guys. We're gonna get
valid cases. Ooh, it won't let me scroll. Okay, I'll
have to zoom out real quick. Bear with me, guys. Okay,
sample size tops right mentions and then a percentage of
the sample size.

Speaker 4 (55:15):
We want to do that.

Speaker 6 (55:16):
And it's really as you probably just saw, it's rebased it.
We spoke to a lot more people than this over time,
and I always tell people don't use the incorrect terminology
over sampling and overrepresentation. It's not the same thing, and
those terms are not interchangeable. So a lot of people
say they oversampled democrats, they oversampled this group. That's not

(55:36):
what you mean. You mean they're over represented in the poll.
We over sample groups all the time, and by the way,
African Americans were way too much of the raw sample
we wanted them to be because I was very curious
about whether or not African American men were still supporting
Trump at the rate that they were before Biden dropped
out and Kamala Harris was replaced. African American women in

(56:00):
good measure gone back to Kamal Harris, okay, but not men.

Speaker 4 (56:05):
Okay.

Speaker 6 (56:05):
So just to keep that in mind, men, especially driven
by men who are forty five and under, have not
gone back to Harris. They still support trumpet like these
ridiculous rates that I never thought I would see.

Speaker 4 (56:18):
So he still is getting nineteen percent of the Black vote.

Speaker 6 (56:20):
Now that's down from some of the numbers you and
I were talking about against Biden. Wire just kind of crazy,
and I would tell you, Sean, I don't think that's
gonna happen, you know, But I do think he's gonna
do much much better with the Black vote. If you
look at just the initial before we lean anyone, they're
both about it forty six percent. She's got a few
more interviews with him than him forty six point four

(56:41):
to forty five point eight. By the way, even if
that was the final margin, Volks, that's a loss for her.
And I'm gonna show you why, all right, Harris versus
Trump with leaner, these are the leaners. This is how
people are breaking so undecided, the are breaking to Trump
fifty four point three to forty five point seven, all right.
And then Harris verus Trump with leaners together is like

(57:03):
split dead even fifty to fifty. He's got one more
interview than her, all right, which is really insane.

Speaker 4 (57:10):
And then the generic ballad is Democrat plus one and
with leaners. Okay, with leaners, Eventually this someone else third
party will shrink as we get closer to the election.
But it's d plus one. I know that's within the margin,
and I know that's a marginal lead. But still with
the seats that are vulnerable for Republicans, you really don't
want to see them running this far behind Donald Trump. Again,

(57:33):
that's with leaners.

Speaker 6 (57:34):
Trump is running almost five points ahead of them in
the initial ask, and then with leaners and he's running
four points ahead of them.

Speaker 4 (57:43):
That's bad.

Speaker 6 (57:44):
I mean, the presidential candidate is at fifty percent and
they are at forty six.

Speaker 4 (57:49):
That's pathetic. I honestly it is. I'm just being that.

Speaker 6 (57:53):
What is that the Yeah, So this is the generic
ballad who you're gonna vote for in your district, the
right or the Democratic candidate. With leaners combined, there's a
good deal of third party someone else, and that's going
to shrink as we get closer to the election if
you look at who these people are. The one good
piece of news for Republicans is that that's a lot

(58:14):
of Trump voters who are throwing their vote away right
now and saying I don't want to vote for the Republican.

Speaker 2 (58:19):
I don't.

Speaker 4 (58:20):
So they're running before you lean people.

Speaker 6 (58:23):
The generic Republican is running five points behind Donald Trump.
When you lean them, they're still running four points behind
Donald Trump, and the presidential candidate is at fifty percent
because they're split debt even I haven't pulled a race
like that in a long time, brother, in a long time.

Speaker 2 (58:41):
So what do you think of it?

Speaker 6 (58:42):
Well, I think at the end of the day, if
Trump is in the forties with Hispanics and he's at
twenty two percent among blacks the way he is here,
we know he's going to pull We know he's going
to perform stronger than he's going.

Speaker 4 (58:53):
To pull among whites.

Speaker 6 (58:54):
This is a loss for her. And bear with me,
and I'm going to show you why. First Let's go
to a region.

Speaker 4 (59:00):
Which there's more specific.

Speaker 6 (59:01):
But let's go to region first, Northeast, Midwest, Southwest, which
we're much more granular than others. I can show you
division and elsewhere when you have before leaners, just asking
straight up. You can see she's ahead in the northeast,
of course, but the Northeast encompasses New England and the
mid Atlantic. The mid Atlantic is New York, New Jersey

(59:22):
and Pennsylvania. Okay, that's important. Just bear with me. The
Northeast should be much more liberal than this, and that's
because she and she's doing good in New England, she's
romping it. However, it's not as strong as like Biden
was in twenty twenty. So that's when you have to
start worrying. Maybe Maine is going to be closer than

(59:42):
she would like. New Hampshire.

Speaker 4 (59:45):
I am always skeptical of that state.

Speaker 6 (59:47):
I am it's so educated in liberal now I'm skeptical
of it. However, Maine and maybe she's doing a little
bit stronger in New Hampshire than they think. You know,
in the South, he has a lead, and there's things
happening with the South. Well, you cannot rely on it,
you know, being so Republican forever. Republicans better start reaching
out to different groups of people the way that Trump

(01:00:08):
is able to do, because they're not doing as well
as you would think they are.

Speaker 4 (01:00:12):
I mean, they're head by six points in the South.

Speaker 6 (01:00:15):
That's disgusting, you know, whereas he's got an eight point
lead when leaned. Actually no, I'm sorry, eight points and
then ten points when leaned. So the Midwest is where
it comes down to, folks. This is what I mean.
I'm not only concerned about this, but I am, of
course extremely concerned about where the Midwest is. Trump initially

(01:00:35):
is leading forty nine to forty four. She does win
the leaners about it a sixty to forty break, which
is odd. You can tell right here that aside from
the Northeast, Trump is winning the leaners every other region.
So it may be some noise here. We're only talking
about a difference of nine interviews. It may be overstated,
but Trump and Biden, depending on how you look at

(01:00:56):
Trump basically carried the Midwest in Edison research by like
two poles in those the National egsit Pole Consortium and
then the voter validated surveys actually show that Biden carried
the Midwest by a few points. It really is that close.
You can tell here that Trump is leading in the Midwest,
and that is a major problem.

Speaker 2 (01:01:15):
How can you tell them? How can you tell by region?

Speaker 6 (01:01:18):
You know, he is ahead in the Midwest, But then
when you break it down by census division, which we
do and we go even further than that, but when
you break it down by census division New England, she's
got a margin like you would expect her to have
in New England. The mid Atlantic should be bigger because
it's New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

Speaker 2 (01:01:36):
What's the what are the margins in these two respective regions.

Speaker 6 (01:01:39):
Yeah, so she's winning New England sixty four thirty six,
which is that is a because I'm sorry, she's winning
it fifty three to forty, and then winning the Leaner
sixty four to thirty six.

Speaker 4 (01:01:50):
So she's ahead all together by about what is it fourteen?
I think in New England?

Speaker 6 (01:01:56):
Yeah, I mean it's very close, I mean to what
it should be and it's not that much. It's fifty
seven forty three. Sorry my eyes.

Speaker 4 (01:02:05):
But in the Middle Atlantic, and this is how you
know she's ahead in the Ross Belt. Okay, I mean
he's ahead. I'm sorry, and I want to misspeak. This
is how you know Trump is ahead in the Ross Belt.

Speaker 6 (01:02:13):
In the Middle Atlantic, which is New York, New Jersey,
and Pennsylvania, her lead is only fifty four to forty six.
Ladies and gentlemen, the Mid Atlantic. The population obviously, between
New York and New Jersey, you would.

Speaker 4 (01:02:26):
Expect those are blue states. We knew they were closer.

Speaker 6 (01:02:30):
So if New York and New Jersey are not bringing
her margin up higher, what does Pennsylvania look like? Okay,
because those are the three states that make up that region,
obviously it's leaning to Trump. And then between the other
the other areas that what we call the Ross Belt.
East North Central obviously is Trump fifty one. It's very close,

(01:02:52):
but he's ahead by about a point a point and
a half. It's rounded, it's like a point. I know,
rounding works funny when you have this close of a race.
West North Central is an even bigger problem for her.
He's ahead fifty five forty five I mean when you
take those three regions together, Sean.

Speaker 4 (01:03:09):
He's ahead, that's it.

Speaker 6 (01:03:11):
And in an area like Pennsylvania, is that trumpy right now?
Then you would expect West north Central because we're talking
about other states like Ohio and Iowa to be much
more pro Trump. And then the battleground of it all,
you know, we're looking at like Michigan.

Speaker 4 (01:03:27):
He's got it like a you know, he's.

Speaker 6 (01:03:29):
Got a lead, so it's not a hugely, it's closer,
but it is leite and she has to run through
these states to win. She has to, and there's some
very really other, you know, important stuff. Race is just
a huge demographic for me, and age of course, like
she's not gotten back all of these young voters. She's
gotten back a subgroup of them, and you know, it's

(01:03:51):
just not enough.

Speaker 4 (01:03:51):
It's not enough.

Speaker 6 (01:03:52):
But we when we break this down again by by
these divisions, this is problematic for her. It really is
probably manic for her. She's not even that far ahead
in the Pacific for a Democrat. But it explains to
me why she erased his like kind of ridiculous polling
lead and even though he's still the favorite, you know,

(01:04:13):
in my mind, because she made some of those margins
in like New York and California. Go back to what
are traditionally what you would expect from Democratic margins. Right,
Hillary Clinton's entire two plus point popular.

Speaker 4 (01:04:28):
Vote edge could be explained away.

Speaker 6 (01:04:30):
By Los Angeles and New York, you know, I mean,
really it can. It's not quite there yet, which is
why Trump is still fifty to fifty with our But
it is not enough.

Speaker 4 (01:04:41):
It's not Biden needed.

Speaker 6 (01:04:43):
I think there's an argument to be made that she
does she doesn't need Biden's margin, But damn man, does
she need every bit of three and a half percent?

Speaker 4 (01:04:50):
You know, three three and a half. She's not getting
it right now, She's not getting it.

Speaker 2 (01:04:54):
That is a that's that's crazy.

Speaker 1 (01:04:57):
I mean it's and I think, you know, people like
seeing how all of this works behind the scenes. I think,
you know, hearing the explanation, seeing the depth of which
you approach this polling. I mean, I tell people that
you're the best in the business for a reason, and
how I think it helps to see this, you know, so,
how can how can people best support you? Support big

(01:05:19):
data poll whatever whatever else you got going on, Rich, I.

Speaker 6 (01:05:23):
Mean, the best thing they can do Sean is always
follow us on locals People's fundent that locals dot com
and from there you can learn all about the Public
Polling Project. People can see the little thing it'll say click,
you know, support our polls and little hands in the air,
little polling graphic.

Speaker 4 (01:05:37):
Click on it. Go check out the Public Polling Project.
Contribute if you can, because it is public.

Speaker 6 (01:05:41):
It's a public funded project, publicly funded project, and it
scroup funded.

Speaker 2 (01:05:45):
You know.

Speaker 6 (01:05:46):
And and of course sharing it is always very helpful.

Speaker 4 (01:05:50):
I mean, share it far and wide.

Speaker 6 (01:05:52):
The bigger the base of contributors, the easier of a
burden it is to everybody who gives to it, you know.

Speaker 4 (01:05:58):
So that's the best way to do it, brother and locals.

Speaker 6 (01:06:01):
Of course, sign up the locals, be a member even
you know, just it's a great way to stay up
to date on when we're releasing them, because locals, we'll
get all this first.

Speaker 2 (01:06:11):
That's the way to do it.

Speaker 1 (01:06:12):
You should the support follow, subscribe to People's Pundit on Rumble,
watch a show inside the Numbers, uh follow, become a
member on Local support all of your polling product Big
data poll check that out as well.

Speaker 2 (01:06:26):
Anything else.

Speaker 1 (01:06:27):
Savage Rich, what are you and Savage in the Savage
family have going on this weekend.

Speaker 4 (01:06:31):
Uffed peppers tonight.

Speaker 6 (01:06:33):
I can't get first, but you know it's the kids
went back to school last week and then we had
Labor Day. It was nice, which, by the way, is
why I had to hold this poll and continue to
poll so I could really show them over time how
this went.

Speaker 4 (01:06:46):
And they'll they'll see that very soon.

Speaker 6 (01:06:48):
Labor Day is such an important critical like landmark time
to pull.

Speaker 4 (01:06:53):
Yes, you have a lot of people who are home.

Speaker 6 (01:06:55):
They want to relax and they want to go out
maybe barbecue and do their things, but you still can
get a whole. In my view, there are certain times
where it's better to avoid response bias, and it was
critical to get this gauge right now so when we
pull in the future, we know what our benchmark is.

Speaker 4 (01:07:13):
You know that, that Labor Day benchmark. So that's what
I did this weekend. Maybe I'll enjoy the next one
a little bit more.

Speaker 1 (01:07:21):
Yeah, go out and get the sun rich. You're too pale.
I know, I know the difference of our complexion. Here,
look out, look at like look at the side by side.

Speaker 6 (01:07:29):
Here, look look at the hands too, And the pool
is still out there cooking.

Speaker 4 (01:07:36):
Brother.

Speaker 6 (01:07:36):
It's still out there and it's looking good. I mean,
I just don't get in it.

Speaker 2 (01:07:40):
You know.

Speaker 6 (01:07:40):
I may run out there some lapse, but when I
do laps, it's too damn early it is.

Speaker 4 (01:07:45):
Not Yeah, and then the sun's not out.

Speaker 2 (01:07:47):
Yet, so it's crazy. All right.

Speaker 1 (01:07:50):
Well, I will see you next Wednesday, my friend as always, Brother,
all right, see your.

Speaker 2 (01:07:54):
Rich, take care of brother. All right, that's savage. It's
the best polster in the business.

Speaker 1 (01:07:58):
You should definitely go support them at big a Pull, subscribe,
follow his Rumble show, become a member on Locals, do
whatever you got to take to support that guy. All right, folks,
we are over our time limit here, but first let
me tell you, oh, Roy got a flag from Aunt Cindy. Roy,
thank you for the Rumble Rants tip. Super super grateful

(01:08:20):
for you. One hundred percent of the Rumble Rants tips
goes to improving the show, and we got some cool
stuff planned to kind of take things to the next
level from a production standpoint to make the show a
better quality viewing, even listening experience. So got some stuff
in the works. So thank you Roy as always, folks,

(01:08:41):
keep the faith. The best is yet to come. Take
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Smoke for the day, Smash that like button, that little
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We've got an awesome streak going. Tell your family and
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(01:09:02):
the trenches and the fight to save this country. As always, folks,
I will see you tomorrow. We got Brian Dean right
right night on deck for tomorrow. It's going to be
a great show as always, folks. God bless you all,
and God bless this amazing country that we call home.

Speaker 2 (01:09:18):
Take care, good night, and I will see you tomorrow.
Battle Crew,