February 3, 2022 • 30 mins
Just ten days remain before Super Bowl LVI, so Action Network Chief Content Officer Chad Millman and professional sports bettor Simon Hunter bring on Stuckey (host of The Action Network Podcast and Big Bets On Campus) to break down the game from a historical perspective. The NFL has been hosting Super Bowls since 1967, so what analytical trends has Stuckey unearthed that could inform our betting decisions next Sunday? Does the spread actually matter in this game? Do the Bengals have the profile of a champion? Just how long will the National Anthem last? All this and plenty more as our betting build up to the Super Bowl continues!
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Episode Transcript
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nine nine eight nine or visit one eight hundred gambler
dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to the Favorites, the
podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Mellman,
Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. Folks, we are
(01:51):
ten days away from the Bengals and the Rams in
the Super Bowl. Simon Hunter, my bff, my companion in
Mike and Padre professional better brother. We talked about it
on Tuesday. This line is moving. It's now Rams four
(02:11):
and a half before we bring in our very very
special guest, who most people should know because I quote
him every single week. On the podcast. I'm not going
to name him yet before we get to that. Simon Hunter,
I can't believe the lines at four and a half
and I bet at Bengals plus four. Weve bed Bengals
(02:32):
three and a half. I mean, oh my god, this
line is running chat. We'll probably dive more into it
next week, but as you sit here today, I can
tell you it had a ten sharp calls. They were
on the Rams. They love the Rams. People on the
Bengals is just a hedge position. They have a future
on the Rams, and they're just taking the four and
a half, taking the four with Cincinnati and just a
(02:52):
hedge position. So it's interesting now where I'm starting to
look at the numbers and hear what other books are doing.
It sounds like it's a public dog in the Bengals.
The public loves the Bengals and the professionals love the Ramps.
So it's definitely interesting we break it down next week
to see where this line ends up, because I honestly
can see it touch in five that just the professional
(03:13):
money and the pros I've talked to, they're just gonna
keep taking this number up. They think this number should
be six. I told you I had the number at three.
That's that's really rare. I'm off by three points to
other professionals, so it's it's definitely keep moving. In my opinion,
I don't think it's gonna stop here four and a half.
But we've seen we've seen it just sit here now
for a day and a half at four and a half. Wow,
(03:34):
this is gonna be so uncomfortable. For the next few days,
we will get deeper into sharp calls. Normally will do
sharp calls on Thursday, which is the response that the
professional betters we know have to what we talked about
on Tuesday, and we'll get deeper into that next week.
We will have two podcasts next week. We will have
(03:54):
Chris Raybon and Sean Kerner the co host with Simon
and I on Convince Me, our Sunday morning preview show.
They will be breaking down all of the Super Bowl
props with us. We will have our show on Thursday
where Simon and I go deep, deep, deep into the
game and we had the entire two weeks to examine it.
We have both made early bets on the Bengals thinking
the line was going to go the other way, so
(04:15):
we're a little disappointed in that it time to introduce
our very special guests. He is one of the original
Action Network superstars. He is the co host of just
about every podcast we do on the Action Network, including
our Big Bets on Campus podcast. During the football season,
(04:35):
that's college football. Now, it's basketball season, it's Stucky, It's
the Boys from three Man. We've it's a whole cavalcade
of superstars. You can check out the Big Bets on
Campus podcast if you're Jones. In for some more betting
action for college basketball, you can check out the Buckets
podcast on the Action Network if you're Jones and for
more NBA betting, the Prime Minister of the Genera Nation, Stucky,
(05:01):
let's going on. Thanks for having me. I will say
that what you guys are talking about, you guys can
hope that history continues in the Super Bowl in that
in the Super Bowls, the straight up winner has gone
forty seven six and two against the spread forty six
and two. The last twelve Super Bowl winners have also
(05:22):
covered the spread. The last favorite to win and not
cover was the Steelers back in two thousand nine. They
were six and a half point favorites against the Cardinals
in that really thrilling super Bowl. There's been twenty eight
Super Bowls that have had a line of six points
or less in all the winner also covered, fourteen underdogs
have one outright, and fourteen favorites have won and covered.
(05:45):
And you set a public dog and this is surprising.
Super Bowl public money can't matter because everyone is betting,
and everyone's mom, uncle and and those bets will tend
to come in closer to kick. You know, most casual
betters aren't betting the Super Bowl two weeks before the game.
But for what it's worth, public sides in the Super
Bowl or nine and nine straight up and ten and
(06:05):
eight against the spread in the Super Bowl since two
thousand four. So those are some things that might give
you some comfort with your Bengals position that has gone
the other way. I have no comfort from any of this, Stucky,
I am gonna be uncomfortable for the next two weeks.
But I like that you kicked it off thematically because
you're on the show today every single Thursday. Here's my
(06:28):
morning ritual. I've talked about this on the podcast before
I'll get up in the morning. That's the day Like
I don't exercise that morning. I block Thursdays out, maybe
I'll drive my kid to school. I listened to you
and Chris Raybon on the Action Network podcast. I'll take
a shipload of notes, and you always have the most
amazing stature. You're going too bet Labs. You do a
(06:50):
lot of research, You figure out a lot of things
that sort of look at trends and angles and whatever.
So this podcast is entirely about what are the trends
and angles that we're seeing for this Super Bowl. But
before we get to, let me ask you, do you
have a lean on this game at this point? Yeah?
I would lean as of right now the Bengals and
anything I make it like Simon right around three. So
I wasn't running to bet it because I wanted to
(07:11):
see where the line would go and try and get
a sense for that. And then it looked like there
were signs that it might pick up. You want to
get the four and a half before it goes to
four if you want the Bengals. But you know, if
it goes up to five five and a half, it's
it's kind of a dead range. And then the next
step would be when it go to six. I don't
think that it will, but so I'm kind of in waiting, Semde,
(07:32):
but I would agree with your sentiment there. The I
think one of the most interesting aspects of this Super
Bowl in particular is that the Rams are hosting it.
So what do you make home field advantage? And you know,
do you make it? Nothing? Right? Home field advantage has
been diminishing over time anyway, the Rams, the Rams have
(07:54):
a great home field and the tickets are like five
million dollars a pieces. It's just gonna be you know,
it's usually a corporate event anyway, So what is that
worth and is it worth one? Is it worth two
points that could make the difference in someone's decision. I
tend to think it's worth like a half point or so.
The Ramsta familiarity, I think that you know, Bick, they
having coach in the Super Bowl fore matters for preparation,
(08:14):
avoiding the distractions and things of that nature. That it's
actually only the second time a team has hosted a
Super Bowl in its home state. And you know the
other temp and Bay Buccaneers you better got you better
gotten that. So by the way, Brady Brady, Tom Brady
is no longer than the NFL. He's no long He's
not playing in this game. He's played an eighteen percent
of all Super Bowls, and since two thousand of ten,
(08:36):
there's only been six Super Bowls without Tom Brady. Underdogs
have gone four and too straight up in those games.
So we have we have some we have some new blood,
which is nice in this game. I already missed Tom Brady. Simon,
what do we want to know from Stucky? Do you
have any stupid trends? Like I love stupid trends for
the Super Bowl. The stupidest one I heard so far
was the last seventeen years, the team that wears white's
(08:59):
twelve and five against the spread. That's my favorite dumb
thing I heard. Because people are going crazy about the
Bengals selecting the All Blacks. I would love to hear
if you've got any crazy trends that you like to
play off of. Wait, have they en the all blacks
for the Super Bowl? They announced that Bengals wearing black
rams are gone white. Well, it's interesting enough. The Bengals
(09:20):
are the home team in the Super Bowl, even though
it's in the Ram Stadium. They just the home team.
Just wrote just alternate student FC and NFC each year.
That means they get to pick their uniforms, so they
went with all black. Last year the Bucks went with
their whites because they had six so much success on
the road, which was interesting. And then they the road
team gets to call the coin toss. Doesn't matter, no,
(09:40):
but it's interesting. Stupid trends. What interesting thing is the
team that scores last. It has just dominated super Bowls
like they You never see it. You never see a
back door that you know, scored last in the Super Bowl.
You might see some props and there's one of the
last twelve Super Bowls. There's not a lot of comebacks
in the Super Bowl, and Joe Barrow has been like
(10:01):
the comeback King and the playoffs and all season long.
But since the first Super Bowl in nineteen sixty seven,
there's been only four teams that overcame double digit deficits
to win. Two of them obviously feature Tom Brady, one
over the Falcons and in overtime, and then one over
Seattle the Malcolm Butler interception game. And the other two
were the Saints over the Colts and Washington over Denver
(10:27):
back in nineteen So yeah, there's there's not a lot
of comebacks in the Super Bowl. So getting off to
a fast start will be important, but there also hasn't
been fast starts. And if you I don't know if
it's nerves or what, one of my favorite things he's
touching on is there'll be more points in the second half.
I've done that every guy I've been on the Super Bowl,
I always bet the overfield goal props in the first
(10:48):
half and then more points second half. Last year is
a little bit of flukey. Tom Brady came out, put
up about twenty four points in the first half and
there was no points the rest of the game. But
like Stucky's touching on, usually these both teams started slow
and then once they come on the second half, that's
when they put up all the points. There hasn't been
a score in the first six minutes of the last
five Super Bowls. So if you like the over and
you think, I don't know if it's nerves or what,
(11:10):
you would think that teams have like a really good
script in coming out. But we've seen the last five
Super Bowls be scorels to the first six minutes. Here's
some stupid trends for you. And the team that wins
a coin toss has lost seven consecutive Super Bowls for whatever,
that's where the safety. Some of you are gonna bet safety.
Probably shouldn't because there's not much value in it. But
if you're convinced there's going to be a safety here,
(11:30):
I mean the Rams pin the Bengals deep and Donald
gets through. Hasn't hitten seven straight Super Bowls, but a
hit in three straight before that, And that's when safety
was all the rage. You know, people hit it and
then hit it again. In sports books were getting burned
by that. Um There's also been four straight Super Bowls
without a defensive or special teams touchdown the end, we
can get an m v P two on. M v
(11:51):
P is a really interesting market this year because and
if you look back, thirty one quarterbacks have won it.
Ten defensive players and then I think seven and receivers
and seven running backs. But the m v P is
it really I think this is one of the most
interesting m VP markets because you have stars on the
defensive end, right, so there's gonna be a there's gear.
I have people talking about Aaron Donald and the offensive line.
(12:13):
So if it's a really low scoring game and Donald
makes makes a play, who knows he could get it.
But you also have you know, you have quarterbacks are
always gonna be the favorites, but you also have like
two star receivers who could dominate yards and touchdowns. So
what would Chase have to do? What would Cop have
to do to take the m v P from the quarterback? Right?
(12:33):
It might be three touchdowns, it might be two hundred yards.
So the the you know, the problem with the m
v P if you want to go defensive players, but
there's been more defensive players than wide receivers, has been
more defensive players than running backs. Is trying to pick
which defensive player it is. Von Miller, by the way,
has one of one of the super mbps. He's in
this game as well. So there's storylines abound, and but
a lot of times they're just random guys, right like
(12:56):
Dexter Jackson, Malcolm Smith, or you gonna pick six, you
geta you get a cup of fubble recoveries, Larry Brown,
Larry Brown. But in two thousand fifteen and two thousand eighteen,
the kind of the longest super super m VP odds
we've seen from a winner Julian Edelman and Von Miller,
they were at about twenty five the one odds. These
(13:16):
random defensive players that you might maybe sports books are
offering a lot more now, like when Malcolm Smith wanted
in two thousand thirteen, he was just part of the field.
But in eleven of the last fifteen Super Bowls, the
pregame odds of the m v P were under five
to one. And as I said, ten defensive players thirty
one quarterbacks. You could pretty much throw out running backs
these days, So I would take some kind of special
(13:37):
effort for running back to win in today's NFL. You know, Dear,
you think back to Terrell Davis. That's like when the
peak of the running backs winning SUPERO m VP was
back in the in the nineties. You're most likely options
are going to be who won, and then if they
wanted Stafford, the Rams one Barrow, banks On or did
one of these receivers specifically cup End or Chase just
(13:59):
completely dominate the game. What are the trends that you
have in front of you right now that you feel
like you can reliably bet versus trends that are interesting
but not necessarily markers. There's not a trend that's gonna
push me one way or the other. And if you
(14:19):
look like this is the most bet on game of
the year, it's gonna be and it's at the end
of the year. We have data, what is it, twenty
games now of data on these teams. This is as
efficient of a ligne as you're gonna see whatever team
you like, bet them. It's like, like I said before,
public sides tenan eight against the spreads and two thousand
(14:40):
four And if you look at super Bowl history, the
favorites or thirty five and twenty straight up, but they're
twenty seven and two against the spread. God, and how
about over unders. There was no total set for Super
Bowl one, but since then have gone over, have gone under,
and one has been a push. So you can see
how efficient this is. And for the most part, almost
(15:02):
every time and the line is under six points, the
winner covers. Now, it doesn't mean it's gonna have forever refort.
We're maybe we're due for a favorite to win by
a field goal. And then mainly it's just figuring out
where is this line gonna go. If I had a guest,
it would probably it's probably gonna close right right around here.
The trends that mean that most to me are just
at how efficient the Super Bowl line is, which makes
all the sense in the world from there, it's just
(15:24):
breaking down the matchup on the field between two quarterbacks
who have ever been there before. And Barrow is the
quickest number one overall draft pick to make the Super Bowl.
He's only twenty five years old. We have seen three
future Hall of Fame quarterbacks win the Super Bowl before
the twenty fifth birthday. You want to try to guess them.
Patrick Mahomes yep. And Roethlisberger yep. Twenty three has been
(15:49):
Mahomes is twenty four. Yep, he was twenty four twenty
years ago. Today. Here's here's one more. This is the
second time in NFL history where we've had only second
time I was surprised by this where we've had to
number one overall draft pick quarterbacks face off in the
Super Bowl. What was the other who were Who were
(16:11):
the quarterbacks? It's not the Jared Goff, Tom Brady, and
it's not any Russell Wilson was in. It's Peyton Camp
there you go, Wow, Yeah, I watched a little football
and this is I don't know who out there. Maybe
you guys have heard from listeners who has a Bengal
Super Bowl ticket, But Bengal Bengals Rams Super Bowl, and
(16:32):
preseason that matchup would have paid five to one preseason
odds to win the Super Bowl. The Rams are twelve
to one. The Bengals were a hundred and fifty to one.
The Bengals a hundred and fifty to one odds were
tied with the nineteen nine Rams, which is interesting. It's right,
(16:54):
you're already wrong. You're wrong. What Rams were two hundred
to one? Well, that's this is just a bet MGM
and the Bengals. The Bengals at some places. So the
things are these are the two longest shots, uh since
which is what we have the data to Yeah, they
were both a hundo up to two one. So the
(17:16):
question is is uh Joe Burrown Company the next greatest show? Look,
that is interesting, right, Obviously I'm sensitive to the Rams storyline.
I know it because you know in my best selling book,
The Odds, I was in Vegas for that thousand season
and I was embedded with our good friend Bob Scucci
(17:40):
at the Stardust Sports Book and I just remember them
sweating to death the Rams run through the season and
the fact they had taken two or three bets for
a thousand bucks on the Rams at two one, and
that they knew it was the Super Bowl and they
(18:00):
weren't going to make any money on the Super Bowl
if the Rams won, because the payout on those futures
was going to be so big, the liability was huge.
They couldn't make it back in any way. They couldn't
favor the Rams or Titans enough on either side to
get them the money they needed to make up the liability,
and they couldn't actually be reckless with the line because
(18:22):
they were wrong. Then their liability doubled. And I remember
all the books after that sort of very specifically changed
the changed the limits they would take on those futures bets,
because all of a sudden it became like, wait a second,
can this happen again? So instead of getting a thousand
dollars down, you're getting a hundred dollars down on two
order to one. But even so, you know, Simon, we
(18:45):
talked about the Bengals that tend to want to win
the a f C. North. None of us thought about
putting money down on them to win the Super Bowl,
and they were like at fifty two one at that point,
why didn't we think about that? What didn't we like
about them? As a Super Bowl contender versus other teams?
Was it? Like you know, we always talked about d
v o A, Right, their d v O A numbers
are middling. What weren't we seeing in them? I never
(19:08):
would have got it right, honestly, just just because I
would have saw their path, Like say, there wasn't the
Chief they had to go to playoff at the Buffalo
play against the Bills. I would have the Bills in
that game too, Like I just I never would have
believed it, just because usually it takes a year or
two to get there, Like usually make the playoffs, you'll lose,
you get humbled, and then you make it back. The
only time we see where it works out is when
(19:28):
you have a great defense. We never never thought the
Bengals had a great defense, Like Ben Roethlisberger had a
great defense. Russell Wilson had a great defense when they
were young, Tom Brady, we all know about that Patriots defense.
I was a great defense. So I just never would
have saw it coming in. Like we joke about no
other pros that either their path has been ideal. Right,
(19:49):
they play the Raiders who somehow get in and they
went by one score. Then they play the Titans, like
that's the one seed and that you would want to play.
They win by one score. They get a bunch of
turner I mean they've been benefiting from turnervers to you know.
And then they come back against the Chiefs and super
impressive win. It's not the worst path in the world.
You know. They remind me kind of the two twelve
(20:09):
Ravens who got in and won three road games with
with Flacco went crazy. You just get in. It's a
football game. I will say that that this is Cincinnati
is the third lowest regular season dv o A of
any Super Bowl team since two thousand three. The two
with lower d v O rights with the OH three
Panthers Jake the Loan and the OH eight Cardinals both
(20:34):
lost in the Super Bowl. Simon were all right, stucky,
rapid fire in the final few minutes. National anthem trends.
This will be the bet that everyone talks about before
the Super Bowl. Forget about sides, national anthem trends go.
I personally will say I've never bet the national anthem
m life and will never bet it. And the reason
(20:56):
it's simple. I don't. I don't shame anyone that does.
I refused to lose a bet before the game starts.
That's it. So I don't want to be oh and
one before the game starts. Uh, and that's all that's
you know. I think it's just like a It would
just give me bad vibes. I'm oh and one. We
haven't even started this game yet, but I know everyone's
gonna bet it. Uh. Since some of the shortest anthems
(21:18):
that we've seen Billy Joel, Kelly Clarkson, they were between
ninety and seconds, and then you had Alicia Keys in
two thousand and thirteen who was two minutes and thirty
six seconds, a minute longer than the shortest this year.
This year's performer is country singer Mickey Gayton, and she's
(21:39):
a country music artist. I know obviously nothing about her,
but she's singing and oddsmakers, I think that she's gonna
have one of the shortest anthems ever. It's gonna be
around nine swonds. So I remember one one year there
was someone forgot to forgot a line in there, skipped
over a line and then think the it stayed under.
I still have a friend who talks about that that
(22:00):
he had the over and whoever was saying missed the
line of the national anthem, and he says he deserves
his money back. But if you're itching for the game,
this isn't. This isn't, Alicia Keys, you'll save a minute
here before kickoff the last one news. By the way,
do you know Mickey Gate news? Now? I don't know
Mickey game. Okay you should not. No, No, definitely not.
(22:24):
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Any value we talked about will there be a score
(24:36):
in the first six minutes, We talked about betting the
under in the first half, nerves, et cetera. Any value
on betting the first Super Bowl score? Yeah, so everyone's
gonna want to talk about who's gonna score the first touchdown. Um,
we're gonna have a lot of content out there. We're
gonna have I think we're we're either gonna do a
super We're gonna do a draft like a snake draft,
where we're just gonna all give our thoughts on who
has the most value. But in the last twelve Super
(25:00):
re Bolts, the first score has been a field goal
six times, a touchdown four times, and one of those
those safeties safeties twice, So two times those safeties were
the first score of the game. Three of these, so
there's only been four touchdowns out of the last twelve
Super Bowls is the first score. Three of those touchdowns
were through the air, and the last twelve Super Bowls,
(25:21):
the underdog has scored first seven times, the favorite five.
So maybe there's some potential in taking the Bengals or
someone on since another interesting like on field match up
which will impact a lot of this stuff. Sean Karner
are very is gonna do some content on this because
you have both tight ends have like the same injury,
(25:41):
and we don't know if they're gonna play, and they
might be game time decisions. So how are oddsmaker is
gonna price like Uzoma to score and his props and
whether or not he's gonna play, and who else does
that impact? And then you know if they're tight end.
If those tight ends are on out there and you
got like Drew sample instead, it would probably increase the
(26:02):
odds that someone else on the Bengals is going to
catch a touchdown if that is indeed the first score.
So a lot of interesting storylines with first score. Don't
go crazy on those bets, They're more for fun and
uh throw a dart and see if you got the
right guy who gets in the end zone. First, Little
Known rams backup tight end Mickey Gayton will be the
(26:24):
first to score a thousand to one. Yeah, before we
get out of here, people have been asking all week
what are you doing here? First weekend? No football, And
I'll say what I'm doing that's that's a great question, honestly, Simon,
I haven't even thought about it. Wow. Yeah, I'm going
to see Jackass forever tonight. Then I'm hopping on an
airplane down to somewhere warm, and then I'll come back
(26:45):
up Sunday. It's gonna be a good weekend. Stucky is
going to be hosting the Big Bets on Campus Live
college basketball preview show with the three Men We've Guys
on Saturday morning at ten thirty Eastern on at Action
Network HQ. Then he's gonna hunker down and bet his
face off on college basketball on every team that you've
never heard of. Yeah. The last night I went, it
(27:06):
was my first night not posting the NFL podcast. We
will do ours next Wednesday night, and I don't and
forever since August. So I promised my wife i'd go
see a late night movie. We saw the New Spider Man.
She's seen every morravel movie. I've seen like zero, um
and it was sick. So I saw the Original Spider
Man though no, I've seen none of them, so I
(27:27):
like studied who I Eat It the Now? But it
was it was a pretty dope movie. And yeah, I've
seen like no action movies and she's seen every single one.
This is the difference between dudes that are married but
have no kids, dudes that are unmarried and have no kids,
and dudes that are married and have kids and the
(27:48):
only thing they think about on the weekend is can
I fix something? And I stay in bed, like what
can I do that requires as little work and effort
as possible? Such a lot. I got a question field
true or fall stucky? Did you go to an arcade
with your wife last night? I did? Yeah, she smoked
me in every game. There's like an arcade in the theater.
(28:10):
It's called lex Live. It's right next to rupt that
downtown Lexington. It's really cool place. Yeah, she smoked me.
I'm running just so bad on all my bets. I
can't even beat my wife in arcade games. So something
in the betting world when when it rains it poor
sometimes and you just got a little bit. But she
gat me in ski ball, she got like a ten
thousand one at the buzzer to beat me once she
(28:31):
beat me and Connect four basketball, Lara Croft game Mario
Kart at like the last second, like three times in
a row. So yeah, she humiliated me in the arcade
true story. I was asleep by last night, fell asleep
reading my kindle with extra large font turn off, the light,
(28:52):
went to bed. It's beautiful. Listen. This has been the
favorites from the Volume podcast. At work, we are in
the midst of massive Super Bowl week coverage. You can
catch us again on Tuesday with seean Coroner and Chris
Raybon talking the list of Super Bowl um player props.
(29:14):
You can catch us again on Thursday where Simon and
I will go through our sharp calls, will go through
our Simon says, we'll go through our big balls better
the week, we'll go through our foxel We'll break down
the game from every angle, give you our final take
on what we're thinking. You can also get next Thursday
morning Action Network podcast Chris Raybon and Stucky the Best
in the Business. Also listen to big bets on campus.
(29:34):
Get your college basketball fix. Listen to Buckets, get your
NBA fix. Lots of stuff to bet on, folks, just
because the NFL season is drawing to a close. For
our friends, Stucky Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation for professional
better BFF compadre companion Simon Hunter, for producer Matt Mitchell,
I am Chad Milman. Download us from Spotify, from Apple Podcast,
(29:57):
wherever you get your podcast. Rate review, rate us a
five star. You can say whatever you want. It is
review season, as everybody knows. I'm just finished Simon Hunters yesterday.
I'm gonna do Matt Mitchell's today, and your reviews coming up.
Give us our review, just give us five stars until
next week. I love you,
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nine nine eight nine or visit one eight hundred gambler
dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to the Favorites, the
podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Mellman,
Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. Folks, we are
(01:51):
ten days away from the Bengals and the Rams in
the Super Bowl. Simon Hunter, my bff, my companion in
Mike and Padre professional better brother. We talked about it
on Tuesday. This line is moving. It's now Rams four
(02:11):
and a half before we bring in our very very
special guest, who most people should know because I quote
him every single week. On the podcast. I'm not going
to name him yet before we get to that. Simon Hunter,
I can't believe the lines at four and a half
and I bet at Bengals plus four. Weve bed Bengals
(02:32):
three and a half. I mean, oh my god, this
line is running chat. We'll probably dive more into it
next week, but as you sit here today, I can
tell you it had a ten sharp calls. They were
on the Rams. They love the Rams. People on the
Bengals is just a hedge position. They have a future
on the Rams, and they're just taking the four and
a half, taking the four with Cincinnati and just a
(02:52):
hedge position. So it's interesting now where I'm starting to
look at the numbers and hear what other books are doing.
It sounds like it's a public dog in the Bengals.
The public loves the Bengals and the professionals love the Ramps.
So it's definitely interesting we break it down next week
to see where this line ends up, because I honestly
can see it touch in five that just the professional
(03:13):
money and the pros I've talked to, they're just gonna
keep taking this number up. They think this number should
be six. I told you I had the number at three.
That's that's really rare. I'm off by three points to
other professionals, so it's it's definitely keep moving. In my opinion,
I don't think it's gonna stop here four and a half.
But we've seen we've seen it just sit here now
for a day and a half at four and a half. Wow,
(03:34):
this is gonna be so uncomfortable. For the next few days,
we will get deeper into sharp calls. Normally will do
sharp calls on Thursday, which is the response that the
professional betters we know have to what we talked about
on Tuesday, and we'll get deeper into that next week.
We will have two podcasts next week. We will have
(03:54):
Chris Raybon and Sean Kerner the co host with Simon
and I on Convince Me, our Sunday morning preview show.
They will be breaking down all of the Super Bowl
props with us. We will have our show on Thursday
where Simon and I go deep, deep, deep into the
game and we had the entire two weeks to examine it.
We have both made early bets on the Bengals thinking
the line was going to go the other way, so
(04:15):
we're a little disappointed in that it time to introduce
our very special guests. He is one of the original
Action Network superstars. He is the co host of just
about every podcast we do on the Action Network, including
our Big Bets on Campus podcast. During the football season,
(04:35):
that's college football. Now, it's basketball season, it's Stucky, It's
the Boys from three Man. We've it's a whole cavalcade
of superstars. You can check out the Big Bets on
Campus podcast if you're Jones. In for some more betting
action for college basketball, you can check out the Buckets
podcast on the Action Network if you're Jones and for
more NBA betting, the Prime Minister of the Genera Nation, Stucky,
(05:01):
let's going on. Thanks for having me. I will say
that what you guys are talking about, you guys can
hope that history continues in the Super Bowl in that
in the Super Bowls, the straight up winner has gone
forty seven six and two against the spread forty six
and two. The last twelve Super Bowl winners have also
(05:22):
covered the spread. The last favorite to win and not
cover was the Steelers back in two thousand nine. They
were six and a half point favorites against the Cardinals
in that really thrilling super Bowl. There's been twenty eight
Super Bowls that have had a line of six points
or less in all the winner also covered, fourteen underdogs
have one outright, and fourteen favorites have won and covered.
(05:45):
And you set a public dog and this is surprising.
Super Bowl public money can't matter because everyone is betting,
and everyone's mom, uncle and and those bets will tend
to come in closer to kick. You know, most casual
betters aren't betting the Super Bowl two weeks before the game.
But for what it's worth, public sides in the Super
Bowl or nine and nine straight up and ten and
(06:05):
eight against the spread in the Super Bowl since two
thousand four. So those are some things that might give
you some comfort with your Bengals position that has gone
the other way. I have no comfort from any of this, Stucky,
I am gonna be uncomfortable for the next two weeks.
But I like that you kicked it off thematically because
you're on the show today every single Thursday. Here's my
(06:28):
morning ritual. I've talked about this on the podcast before
I'll get up in the morning. That's the day Like
I don't exercise that morning. I block Thursdays out, maybe
I'll drive my kid to school. I listened to you
and Chris Raybon on the Action Network podcast. I'll take
a shipload of notes, and you always have the most
amazing stature. You're going too bet Labs. You do a
(06:50):
lot of research, You figure out a lot of things
that sort of look at trends and angles and whatever.
So this podcast is entirely about what are the trends
and angles that we're seeing for this Super Bowl. But
before we get to, let me ask you, do you
have a lean on this game at this point? Yeah?
I would lean as of right now the Bengals and
anything I make it like Simon right around three. So
I wasn't running to bet it because I wanted to
(07:11):
see where the line would go and try and get
a sense for that. And then it looked like there
were signs that it might pick up. You want to
get the four and a half before it goes to
four if you want the Bengals. But you know, if
it goes up to five five and a half, it's
it's kind of a dead range. And then the next
step would be when it go to six. I don't
think that it will, but so I'm kind of in waiting, Semde,
(07:32):
but I would agree with your sentiment there. The I
think one of the most interesting aspects of this Super
Bowl in particular is that the Rams are hosting it.
So what do you make home field advantage? And you know,
do you make it? Nothing? Right? Home field advantage has
been diminishing over time anyway, the Rams, the Rams have
(07:54):
a great home field and the tickets are like five
million dollars a pieces. It's just gonna be you know,
it's usually a corporate event anyway, So what is that
worth and is it worth one? Is it worth two
points that could make the difference in someone's decision. I
tend to think it's worth like a half point or so.
The Ramsta familiarity, I think that you know, Bick, they
having coach in the Super Bowl fore matters for preparation,
(08:14):
avoiding the distractions and things of that nature. That it's
actually only the second time a team has hosted a
Super Bowl in its home state. And you know the
other temp and Bay Buccaneers you better got you better
gotten that. So by the way, Brady Brady, Tom Brady
is no longer than the NFL. He's no long He's
not playing in this game. He's played an eighteen percent
of all Super Bowls, and since two thousand of ten,
(08:36):
there's only been six Super Bowls without Tom Brady. Underdogs
have gone four and too straight up in those games.
So we have we have some we have some new blood,
which is nice in this game. I already missed Tom Brady. Simon,
what do we want to know from Stucky? Do you
have any stupid trends? Like I love stupid trends for
the Super Bowl. The stupidest one I heard so far
was the last seventeen years, the team that wears white's
(08:59):
twelve and five against the spread. That's my favorite dumb
thing I heard. Because people are going crazy about the
Bengals selecting the All Blacks. I would love to hear
if you've got any crazy trends that you like to
play off of. Wait, have they en the all blacks
for the Super Bowl? They announced that Bengals wearing black
rams are gone white. Well, it's interesting enough. The Bengals
(09:20):
are the home team in the Super Bowl, even though
it's in the Ram Stadium. They just the home team.
Just wrote just alternate student FC and NFC each year.
That means they get to pick their uniforms, so they
went with all black. Last year the Bucks went with
their whites because they had six so much success on
the road, which was interesting. And then they the road
team gets to call the coin toss. Doesn't matter, no,
(09:40):
but it's interesting. Stupid trends. What interesting thing is the
team that scores last. It has just dominated super Bowls
like they You never see it. You never see a
back door that you know, scored last in the Super Bowl.
You might see some props and there's one of the
last twelve Super Bowls. There's not a lot of comebacks
in the Super Bowl, and Joe Barrow has been like
(10:01):
the comeback King and the playoffs and all season long.
But since the first Super Bowl in nineteen sixty seven,
there's been only four teams that overcame double digit deficits
to win. Two of them obviously feature Tom Brady, one
over the Falcons and in overtime, and then one over
Seattle the Malcolm Butler interception game. And the other two
were the Saints over the Colts and Washington over Denver
(10:27):
back in nineteen So yeah, there's there's not a lot
of comebacks in the Super Bowl. So getting off to
a fast start will be important, but there also hasn't
been fast starts. And if you I don't know if
it's nerves or what, one of my favorite things he's
touching on is there'll be more points in the second half.
I've done that every guy I've been on the Super Bowl,
I always bet the overfield goal props in the first
(10:48):
half and then more points second half. Last year is
a little bit of flukey. Tom Brady came out, put
up about twenty four points in the first half and
there was no points the rest of the game. But
like Stucky's touching on, usually these both teams started slow
and then once they come on the second half, that's
when they put up all the points. There hasn't been
a score in the first six minutes of the last
five Super Bowls. So if you like the over and
you think, I don't know if it's nerves or what,
(11:10):
you would think that teams have like a really good
script in coming out. But we've seen the last five
Super Bowls be scorels to the first six minutes. Here's
some stupid trends for you. And the team that wins
a coin toss has lost seven consecutive Super Bowls for whatever,
that's where the safety. Some of you are gonna bet safety.
Probably shouldn't because there's not much value in it. But
if you're convinced there's going to be a safety here,
(11:30):
I mean the Rams pin the Bengals deep and Donald
gets through. Hasn't hitten seven straight Super Bowls, but a
hit in three straight before that, And that's when safety
was all the rage. You know, people hit it and
then hit it again. In sports books were getting burned
by that. Um There's also been four straight Super Bowls
without a defensive or special teams touchdown the end, we
can get an m v P two on. M v
(11:51):
P is a really interesting market this year because and
if you look back, thirty one quarterbacks have won it.
Ten defensive players and then I think seven and receivers
and seven running backs. But the m v P is
it really I think this is one of the most
interesting m VP markets because you have stars on the
defensive end, right, so there's gonna be a there's gear.
I have people talking about Aaron Donald and the offensive line.
(12:13):
So if it's a really low scoring game and Donald
makes makes a play, who knows he could get it.
But you also have you know, you have quarterbacks are
always gonna be the favorites, but you also have like
two star receivers who could dominate yards and touchdowns. So
what would Chase have to do? What would Cop have
to do to take the m v P from the quarterback? Right?
(12:33):
It might be three touchdowns, it might be two hundred yards.
So the the you know, the problem with the m
v P if you want to go defensive players, but
there's been more defensive players than wide receivers, has been
more defensive players than running backs. Is trying to pick
which defensive player it is. Von Miller, by the way,
has one of one of the super mbps. He's in
this game as well. So there's storylines abound, and but
a lot of times they're just random guys, right like
(12:56):
Dexter Jackson, Malcolm Smith, or you gonna pick six, you
geta you get a cup of fubble recoveries, Larry Brown,
Larry Brown. But in two thousand fifteen and two thousand eighteen,
the kind of the longest super super m VP odds
we've seen from a winner Julian Edelman and Von Miller,
they were at about twenty five the one odds. These
(13:16):
random defensive players that you might maybe sports books are
offering a lot more now, like when Malcolm Smith wanted
in two thousand thirteen, he was just part of the field.
But in eleven of the last fifteen Super Bowls, the
pregame odds of the m v P were under five
to one. And as I said, ten defensive players thirty
one quarterbacks. You could pretty much throw out running backs
these days, So I would take some kind of special
(13:37):
effort for running back to win in today's NFL. You know, Dear,
you think back to Terrell Davis. That's like when the
peak of the running backs winning SUPERO m VP was
back in the in the nineties. You're most likely options
are going to be who won, and then if they
wanted Stafford, the Rams one Barrow, banks On or did
one of these receivers specifically cup End or Chase just
(13:59):
completely dominate the game. What are the trends that you
have in front of you right now that you feel
like you can reliably bet versus trends that are interesting
but not necessarily markers. There's not a trend that's gonna
push me one way or the other. And if you
(14:19):
look like this is the most bet on game of
the year, it's gonna be and it's at the end
of the year. We have data, what is it, twenty
games now of data on these teams. This is as
efficient of a ligne as you're gonna see whatever team
you like, bet them. It's like, like I said before,
public sides tenan eight against the spreads and two thousand
(14:40):
four And if you look at super Bowl history, the
favorites or thirty five and twenty straight up, but they're
twenty seven and two against the spread. God, and how
about over unders. There was no total set for Super
Bowl one, but since then have gone over, have gone under,
and one has been a push. So you can see
how efficient this is. And for the most part, almost
(15:02):
every time and the line is under six points, the
winner covers. Now, it doesn't mean it's gonna have forever refort.
We're maybe we're due for a favorite to win by
a field goal. And then mainly it's just figuring out
where is this line gonna go. If I had a guest,
it would probably it's probably gonna close right right around here.
The trends that mean that most to me are just
at how efficient the Super Bowl line is, which makes
all the sense in the world from there, it's just
(15:24):
breaking down the matchup on the field between two quarterbacks
who have ever been there before. And Barrow is the
quickest number one overall draft pick to make the Super Bowl.
He's only twenty five years old. We have seen three
future Hall of Fame quarterbacks win the Super Bowl before
the twenty fifth birthday. You want to try to guess them.
Patrick Mahomes yep. And Roethlisberger yep. Twenty three has been
(15:49):
Mahomes is twenty four. Yep, he was twenty four twenty
years ago. Today. Here's here's one more. This is the
second time in NFL history where we've had only second
time I was surprised by this where we've had to
number one overall draft pick quarterbacks face off in the
Super Bowl. What was the other who were Who were
(16:11):
the quarterbacks? It's not the Jared Goff, Tom Brady, and
it's not any Russell Wilson was in. It's Peyton Camp
there you go, Wow, Yeah, I watched a little football
and this is I don't know who out there. Maybe
you guys have heard from listeners who has a Bengal
Super Bowl ticket, But Bengal Bengals Rams Super Bowl, and
(16:32):
preseason that matchup would have paid five to one preseason
odds to win the Super Bowl. The Rams are twelve
to one. The Bengals were a hundred and fifty to one.
The Bengals a hundred and fifty to one odds were
tied with the nineteen nine Rams, which is interesting. It's right,
(16:54):
you're already wrong. You're wrong. What Rams were two hundred
to one? Well, that's this is just a bet MGM
and the Bengals. The Bengals at some places. So the
things are these are the two longest shots, uh since
which is what we have the data to Yeah, they
were both a hundo up to two one. So the
(17:16):
question is is uh Joe Burrown Company the next greatest show? Look,
that is interesting, right, Obviously I'm sensitive to the Rams storyline.
I know it because you know in my best selling book,
The Odds, I was in Vegas for that thousand season
and I was embedded with our good friend Bob Scucci
(17:40):
at the Stardust Sports Book and I just remember them
sweating to death the Rams run through the season and
the fact they had taken two or three bets for
a thousand bucks on the Rams at two one, and
that they knew it was the Super Bowl and they
(18:00):
weren't going to make any money on the Super Bowl
if the Rams won, because the payout on those futures
was going to be so big, the liability was huge.
They couldn't make it back in any way. They couldn't
favor the Rams or Titans enough on either side to
get them the money they needed to make up the liability,
and they couldn't actually be reckless with the line because
(18:22):
they were wrong. Then their liability doubled. And I remember
all the books after that sort of very specifically changed
the changed the limits they would take on those futures bets,
because all of a sudden it became like, wait a second,
can this happen again? So instead of getting a thousand
dollars down, you're getting a hundred dollars down on two
order to one. But even so, you know, Simon, we
(18:45):
talked about the Bengals that tend to want to win
the a f C. North. None of us thought about
putting money down on them to win the Super Bowl,
and they were like at fifty two one at that point,
why didn't we think about that? What didn't we like
about them? As a Super Bowl contender versus other teams?
Was it? Like you know, we always talked about d
v o A, Right, their d v O A numbers
are middling. What weren't we seeing in them? I never
(19:08):
would have got it right, honestly, just just because I
would have saw their path, Like say, there wasn't the
Chief they had to go to playoff at the Buffalo
play against the Bills. I would have the Bills in
that game too, Like I just I never would have
believed it, just because usually it takes a year or
two to get there, Like usually make the playoffs, you'll lose,
you get humbled, and then you make it back. The
only time we see where it works out is when
(19:28):
you have a great defense. We never never thought the
Bengals had a great defense, Like Ben Roethlisberger had a
great defense. Russell Wilson had a great defense when they
were young, Tom Brady, we all know about that Patriots defense.
I was a great defense. So I just never would
have saw it coming in. Like we joke about no
other pros that either their path has been ideal. Right,
(19:49):
they play the Raiders who somehow get in and they
went by one score. Then they play the Titans, like
that's the one seed and that you would want to play.
They win by one score. They get a bunch of
turner I mean they've been benefiting from turnervers to you know.
And then they come back against the Chiefs and super
impressive win. It's not the worst path in the world.
You know. They remind me kind of the two twelve
(20:09):
Ravens who got in and won three road games with
with Flacco went crazy. You just get in. It's a
football game. I will say that that this is Cincinnati
is the third lowest regular season dv o A of
any Super Bowl team since two thousand three. The two
with lower d v O rights with the OH three
Panthers Jake the Loan and the OH eight Cardinals both
(20:34):
lost in the Super Bowl. Simon were all right, stucky,
rapid fire in the final few minutes. National anthem trends.
This will be the bet that everyone talks about before
the Super Bowl. Forget about sides, national anthem trends go.
I personally will say I've never bet the national anthem
m life and will never bet it. And the reason
(20:56):
it's simple. I don't. I don't shame anyone that does.
I refused to lose a bet before the game starts.
That's it. So I don't want to be oh and
one before the game starts. Uh, and that's all that's
you know. I think it's just like a It would
just give me bad vibes. I'm oh and one. We
haven't even started this game yet, but I know everyone's
gonna bet it. Uh. Since some of the shortest anthems
(21:18):
that we've seen Billy Joel, Kelly Clarkson, they were between
ninety and seconds, and then you had Alicia Keys in
two thousand and thirteen who was two minutes and thirty
six seconds, a minute longer than the shortest this year.
This year's performer is country singer Mickey Gayton, and she's
(21:39):
a country music artist. I know obviously nothing about her,
but she's singing and oddsmakers, I think that she's gonna
have one of the shortest anthems ever. It's gonna be
around nine swonds. So I remember one one year there
was someone forgot to forgot a line in there, skipped
over a line and then think the it stayed under.
I still have a friend who talks about that that
(22:00):
he had the over and whoever was saying missed the
line of the national anthem, and he says he deserves
his money back. But if you're itching for the game,
this isn't. This isn't, Alicia Keys, you'll save a minute
here before kickoff the last one news. By the way,
do you know Mickey Gate news? Now? I don't know
Mickey game. Okay you should not. No, No, definitely not.
(22:24):
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zero s t o P in Louisiana called the Tennessee
Redline one eight hundred eight eight nine nine seven eight nine,
or visit one eight hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia.
Any value we talked about will there be a score
(24:36):
in the first six minutes, We talked about betting the
under in the first half, nerves, et cetera. Any value
on betting the first Super Bowl score? Yeah, so everyone's
gonna want to talk about who's gonna score the first touchdown. Um,
we're gonna have a lot of content out there. We're
gonna have I think we're we're either gonna do a
super We're gonna do a draft like a snake draft,
where we're just gonna all give our thoughts on who
has the most value. But in the last twelve Super
(25:00):
re Bolts, the first score has been a field goal
six times, a touchdown four times, and one of those
those safeties safeties twice, So two times those safeties were
the first score of the game. Three of these, so
there's only been four touchdowns out of the last twelve
Super Bowls is the first score. Three of those touchdowns
were through the air, and the last twelve Super Bowls,
(25:21):
the underdog has scored first seven times, the favorite five.
So maybe there's some potential in taking the Bengals or
someone on since another interesting like on field match up
which will impact a lot of this stuff. Sean Karner
are very is gonna do some content on this because
you have both tight ends have like the same injury,
(25:41):
and we don't know if they're gonna play, and they
might be game time decisions. So how are oddsmaker is
gonna price like Uzoma to score and his props and
whether or not he's gonna play, and who else does
that impact? And then you know if they're tight end.
If those tight ends are on out there and you
got like Drew sample instead, it would probably increase the
(26:02):
odds that someone else on the Bengals is going to
catch a touchdown if that is indeed the first score.
So a lot of interesting storylines with first score. Don't
go crazy on those bets, They're more for fun and
uh throw a dart and see if you got the
right guy who gets in the end zone. First, Little
Known rams backup tight end Mickey Gayton will be the
(26:24):
first to score a thousand to one. Yeah, before we
get out of here, people have been asking all week
what are you doing here? First weekend? No football, And
I'll say what I'm doing that's that's a great question, honestly, Simon,
I haven't even thought about it. Wow. Yeah, I'm going
to see Jackass forever tonight. Then I'm hopping on an
airplane down to somewhere warm, and then I'll come back
(26:45):
up Sunday. It's gonna be a good weekend. Stucky is
going to be hosting the Big Bets on Campus Live
college basketball preview show with the three Men We've Guys
on Saturday morning at ten thirty Eastern on at Action
Network HQ. Then he's gonna hunker down and bet his
face off on college basketball on every team that you've
never heard of. Yeah. The last night I went, it
(27:06):
was my first night not posting the NFL podcast. We
will do ours next Wednesday night, and I don't and
forever since August. So I promised my wife i'd go
see a late night movie. We saw the New Spider Man.
She's seen every morravel movie. I've seen like zero, um
and it was sick. So I saw the Original Spider
Man though no, I've seen none of them, so I
(27:27):
like studied who I Eat It the Now? But it
was it was a pretty dope movie. And yeah, I've
seen like no action movies and she's seen every single one.
This is the difference between dudes that are married but
have no kids, dudes that are unmarried and have no kids,
and dudes that are married and have kids and the
(27:48):
only thing they think about on the weekend is can
I fix something? And I stay in bed, like what
can I do that requires as little work and effort
as possible? Such a lot. I got a question field
true or fall stucky? Did you go to an arcade
with your wife last night? I did? Yeah, she smoked
me in every game. There's like an arcade in the theater.
(28:10):
It's called lex Live. It's right next to rupt that
downtown Lexington. It's really cool place. Yeah, she smoked me.
I'm running just so bad on all my bets. I
can't even beat my wife in arcade games. So something
in the betting world when when it rains it poor
sometimes and you just got a little bit. But she
gat me in ski ball, she got like a ten
thousand one at the buzzer to beat me once she
(28:31):
beat me and Connect four basketball, Lara Croft game Mario
Kart at like the last second, like three times in
a row. So yeah, she humiliated me in the arcade
true story. I was asleep by last night, fell asleep
reading my kindle with extra large font turn off, the light,
(28:52):
went to bed. It's beautiful. Listen. This has been the
favorites from the Volume podcast. At work, we are in
the midst of massive Super Bowl week coverage. You can
catch us again on Tuesday with seean Coroner and Chris
Raybon talking the list of Super Bowl um player props.
(29:14):
You can catch us again on Thursday where Simon and
I will go through our sharp calls, will go through
our Simon says, we'll go through our big balls better
the week, we'll go through our foxel We'll break down
the game from every angle, give you our final take
on what we're thinking. You can also get next Thursday
morning Action Network podcast Chris Raybon and Stucky the Best
in the Business. Also listen to big bets on campus.
(29:34):
Get your college basketball fix. Listen to Buckets, get your
NBA fix. Lots of stuff to bet on, folks, just
because the NFL season is drawing to a close. For
our friends, Stucky Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation for professional
better BFF compadre companion Simon Hunter, for producer Matt Mitchell,
I am Chad Milman. Download us from Spotify, from Apple Podcast,
(29:57):
wherever you get your podcast. Rate review, rate us a
five star. You can say whatever you want. It is
review season, as everybody knows. I'm just finished Simon Hunters yesterday.
I'm gonna do Matt Mitchell's today, and your reviews coming up.
Give us our review, just give us five stars until
next week. I love you,
Hosts And Creators
Chad Millman
Simon Hunter
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