April 10, 2025 • 48 mins
The April sports calendar means The Masters, NBA Playoffs, MLB and NFL Draft. Here to touch on all these and more is Anthony Dabbundo of The Ringer, who joins his former Action Network colleagues for a fun conversation covering the Phillies, Anthony Richardson, dangerous Amtrak behavior and so much more. #Volume #herd
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast presented by BET
three six five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today. I'm
joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre,
my BFF professional better, Simon Hunter Elo Simon, Hello.
Speaker 2 (00:28):
Chad, did you watch that uh Lucas homecoming last night?
Speaker 1 (00:32):
That I watched the Lucas homecoming last night?
Speaker 2 (00:36):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (00:36):
Doncic oh, oh Luca Lucas homecoming. Yeah, I watched the
whole thing. I watched the whole game. My kid and
I were riveted. It was awesome. He was on fire.
The tears were flowing in the beginning.
Speaker 2 (00:49):
That was hoppy to me. Him crying at the beginning.
This man is crying about the Dallas Mavericks. How did
they let him go? You had a player that cared
about playing in Dallas.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
He had a guy. They put up a graphic which
I think I must have forgotten that Luca, at twenty
eight point six points per game, has the third highest
scoring average in NBA history, after Michael Jordan and Wilt Chamberlain.
How the fuck do you let that? It's like still astonishing,
(01:23):
It's so astonishing that it's not even like that. Michael
Malone getting fired with three games left after two years
after winning a title, and he's got his team like
in fourth place in the Western Conference with the best
player in the world. That's like an old conversation because
Luca's is so so big. Last night was great. It
(01:46):
was a great game. He was on fire. I love
the way JJ Reddick handled at the end. They went
into a timeout after he scored one more basket to
basically seal the game. Came out of it. He filed
the guy. They brought him off. The fans were sharing
it was just such come up and so great, so
(02:06):
many fire and Nico chants. It was awesome.
Speaker 2 (02:09):
And I'm on the other side of it, people like
were so upset and remember just during the SUPERWL week
everyone was shocked by it. I am another way where
it's like, this is why I kind of love the NBA,
because it's like we all know it's kind of rigged,
and what world does the best player. It'd be like,
you know, Joe bro being traded to the Bears, like
doesn't make any sense, just sending the guy from Cincinnati
to Chicago. Same thing here. It's like of course he
(02:32):
went to the Lakers. It's like of all the teams
that he quietly went to and had to be the Lakers.
So to me, I've loved it. It feels like it
brought some life into the NBA this season, where not
that it was a boring season any measures, but it
was like these teams people didn't care about Oklahoma City
in Cleveland. It's like, Okay, at least we have the Lakers.
(02:52):
Like the fact that this brought a whole spark of
the league. I've loved it. So yeah, last night it's
it's the best night too, is a better because it's
like I did the Chalky bet bet on Luca Points,
bet on them to win the game, and yeah, he
showed up and just absolutely dominated. So yeah, that was
That was a really fun game.
Speaker 1 (03:08):
I love that for you. I love that the Master
tease off today. In fact, it already has. Baseball is back,
the Draft is looming. We had great NBA action last
night with the MAVs and the Lakers. The NBA playoff
are right around the corner. Joining us today to discuss
all things sports and sports betting. A true Philly scumbag
(03:30):
like the kind of better that We absolutely love our
former colleague now working at the Ringer from the fighting
city of Philadelphia. He came to our live share in
Philly mainly because I made him Anthony Debundo.
Speaker 3 (03:47):
Good to be here.
Speaker 4 (03:48):
And I'll be honest, when you texted me to scout
some locations, I was incredibly honored. I was like, of
all the people that Chad knows in Philly, he's texting
me to be like, hey, you know any bars that
we could do the event, and the bar that you
guys picked was on my list.
Speaker 3 (04:03):
So that was very honored and then quite a story.
Speaker 4 (04:06):
I don't know if you've talked to Evan Abrams about
that night, but the adventure of getting him to the
Amtrak train at thirtieth Street was one I'll never forget.
Speaker 1 (04:15):
Well, Number one, I texted you because you're our audience,
like sweet guy, probably bets too much love sports representative
of the Philly scumbag ethos. Also, you were raised in
a bar, so I figure like, if anybody is going
to know where like a good time could be had
(04:38):
for people like him, it would be you. I haven't
heard the Evan Abrams story. I don't really care. As
a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three
sixty five and New Bet three sixty five. Customers get
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bet five dollars sign up using promo code Favorites deposit
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(04:59):
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Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight
(05:20):
hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditioned restrictions apply. Oh like,
all right now, I'm getting dreamed here for not wanting
to know about Evan Abram, So go ahead, tell us
the Evan Abram story. Please Anthony share.
Speaker 4 (05:38):
So if you remember like that Thursday night game, it
was Niners Rams. It was one of the worst Thursday
night games maybe played all year, which was unfortunate. But
Evan had a train that he had to make that
was getting back to New York and it was either
make that train or wait like two hours and beyond,
like the Midnight Express that you really don't ever want
to be on on the Amtrak Northeast Regional.
Speaker 3 (05:58):
And so he's like, I got fifteen minutes.
Speaker 4 (05:59):
Do you think we can make it from you know,
Wicked Wolf Downtown Center City, Philadelphia all the way out
to thirtieth Street. I'm like, yeah, we'll make it. So
you're driving him or I'm driving. Yes, I'm driving. So
I am trying to hit or hit, you know, get
through these lights. And we hit maybe every light possible
in the ten minutes. And you know, we've all done
this before, like the will you make it? Won't they
(06:21):
make it? So we pull up to the corner that's
opposite thirtieth Street and the train is taking off in
two minutes. I'm like, dude, you're never gonna make it
if we sit at this red light. So he just
jets out of the car. He's sprinting across the street.
Backpack on his pants are falling down. I'm watching him
like trying to pull up his pants as he's running
across the street. People are honking at him because he's
basically you know, the light is green and he's like
(06:42):
just running through traffic. Here there's a scene from a movie.
So he runs into the platform. I have no idea.
Now did he make the train? Did he not make
the train? And I'm driving home waiting for the text
to pop up from Evan. He said, you won't believe this,
and I couldn't believe it. But I got to the platform,
the trade started to close and started rolling away, So
I jumped onto the sidecar until the conductor saw me
(07:03):
and then eventually opened the door. So he made this
train by like five seconds. Technically didn't even make the train.
Speaker 1 (07:10):
And I just pumped jumped onto this like was the
door closed? Was he like Tom Cruise and mission impossible?
Holding onto the side of the train while it was
leaving the station.
Speaker 3 (07:21):
That's how it reads to me. I don't even know.
Speaker 1 (07:28):
I feel like, wouldn't they emergency stopped the train right
in their tracks? It would be a delay and Evan
would probably get arrested. Like you can't jump on the
train and just be on it as it slowly, holding
on by your fingertips to the door.
Speaker 2 (07:46):
Yeah he did. He did mention that he got screamed
at Philadelphia style for doing it, but as a man
of New York born and raised, that it made no
difference to Evan. It was a past fail test. The
guy opened the door and had thus lost, so he
happily took a seat. But yeah, it was.
Speaker 3 (08:01):
It was a Tom Cruise asked moment for our own Evan.
Speaker 1 (08:04):
Abrams, and this is the one time he doesn't join
the show. Unbelievable, seriously unreal.
Speaker 3 (08:11):
So a lot of.
Speaker 4 (08:11):
Respect was gained for Evan that night. For me, I
didn't know that he had that in him. Sprinting across
the street through traffic, running down the platform, jumping onto
a slowly moving train to save an hour and a
half of sitting at thirtieth Street in a dark Thursday
night and boring rain.
Speaker 1 (08:27):
Yeah, Evan's got a lot of dog in him, a
lot like hardcore New York City raised, grew up betting sports.
God knows what else. I don't think like a slow
rolling train out of Philly is gonna scare him.
Speaker 2 (08:44):
Yeah. I was gonna say, we have one producer in
Evan that can make that run that jump, and our
other producer, Gifford simply falls down the subway stairs and
breaks his hip. Just two totally different men in this world.
Speaker 3 (08:55):
Oh man, dude, that story have been told on this
show before?
Speaker 1 (09:00):
What's that?
Speaker 3 (09:00):
Has that story been told on this show before?
Speaker 2 (09:02):
Now?
Speaker 1 (09:02):
I was gonna tell it, Go ahead and tell it.
Speaker 4 (09:05):
So what was it last? It was wild Card weekend.
Speaker 1 (09:09):
Four, twenty twenty three, I.
Speaker 4 (09:12):
Think, No, No, it was it was last year. It
was it was the Yeah, it was Wilder our weekend
last year. And he had left to go back to
Hoboken on the Path Train, and all of a sudden,
Christina Ventura, who used to work at Action, she came
in and was like, is anybody sober at this party?
Speaker 3 (09:30):
And I'm like, yeah, I raised my hand. She's like,
gif Herd needs help.
Speaker 4 (09:34):
So here we are, Christina and I go into try
to find which entrance of the Path Train at twenty
third and sixth.
Speaker 3 (09:40):
He's on a street, right. It was pouring rain on
flooding the stage by the way.
Speaker 4 (09:45):
Yeah, and we find him and he's just like sitting
there on the steps, like just wincing in pain. And
we eventually you know, Christina stayed with him and we
got his stuff, and you know today took care of him.
Speaker 3 (09:58):
I think he was in surgery like two days later.
Speaker 1 (10:00):
But he broke his hip.
Speaker 3 (10:01):
Yeah, he done it before.
Speaker 1 (10:03):
I believe he was turning thirty. He broke his hip
for the second time. It was the other hip. So
now we've got one producer who is so bold he
will jump on a moving train rather than spend another
two freaking hours in Philadelphia, and one producer who is
so fragile he's already got more hip injuries than my
(10:25):
eighty five year old mother in law.
Speaker 3 (10:29):
So the Dreams crew, it probably goes really well on
a Hinge prompt.
Speaker 1 (10:33):
That's what I can see why Dbundo ran out of
here as fast as he possibly could. Once Bill called.
He was like, I cannot work with these people anymore. Yeah, anyways,
baseball season started, Simon, do you want to commiserate with
your fellow Philly fanatic for a second.
Speaker 2 (10:49):
Yeah, let's jump into it. Brother. It's you know, we're
both huge Phillies guys. You know, Zerrilla came on here,
like you said, he was not, you know, giving out
the Phillies over, which was a to me, what we
know about the Phillies this year, Like, we're off to
a great start. What's gonna carry us the bundo? Is
it our pitching? Is it our bats? Like, I mean,
I'm sure you're already the same spot they need, you know,
(11:11):
they need to change the lineup already because we have
a couple of dead bats in the middle of the lineup. Like,
what's your view on the Phillies for this upcoming season?
You think they're gonna keep staying hopping the second best
team in baseball? Or do you think they're gonna fall off? Yeah?
Speaker 3 (11:23):
I think it's funny how the Phillies have changed.
Speaker 4 (11:25):
So they used to be back in twenty twenty two,
when they first made the run and burst onto the scene,
it was like, oh, they're your lovable Beer League softball team.
They hit a bunch of homers and you know, they
don't really play defense, and their pitching is kind of iffy.
But really, like, the reason the Phillies are good in
twenty twenty five is their rotation. And I think when
you look at this rotation, this group of four and
(11:46):
Ranger Suarez is coming back eventually five pitchers, they're the
best and most reliable rotation in baseball. And you know,
for all the talk about the Dodgers preseason and this
incredible rotation of names, it only took fourteen games for
them to start too. Dude who most people have never
heard of because of injuries and certain guys missing time.
So the Phillies with Wheeler and Nola and Chris Sanchez
(12:07):
breakout and Lozardo him having a couple of great starts
here and looking really good. They're in every game like
it's very hard to beat them in a kind of
a laugher because they're just They're pitching is so good
and so reliable, and you know, there's still a lot
of star power in this lineup. I know they're getting older,
but they're not old. They're older, but they're not old.
Speaker 1 (12:27):
Well, define like their window, what is older? Like when
do they get old?
Speaker 3 (12:34):
That's the big question I've said.
Speaker 4 (12:36):
So Zach Wheeler signed a three year extension, so he's
going to be pitching for the next three years.
Speaker 3 (12:42):
I think that is their window.
Speaker 4 (12:43):
So long as Wheeler is as dominant as he's been,
and he's been you could argue the best pitcher over
the last five years cumulative in baseball.
Speaker 3 (12:50):
As long as he's throwing.
Speaker 4 (12:52):
And as long as Harper and Turner and Schwerber are
producing at the heart of this lineup, I think they're
going to be in that mix. And it's not that
they don't have prospects, because they've got a guy Andrew
Painter who's coming up June July, and he's gonna be,
you know, one of the top pitching prospects in baseball.
He could be kind of the gap, the bridging of
the gap. He could be in the bullpen come playoff time.
There are certainly holes with the Phillies. They are the
(13:14):
third oldest lineup in baseball, but a lot of these
guys are like thirty one to thirty three. It's not
like they're relying on a bunch of thirty six year
olds who are on their last legs.
Speaker 2 (13:24):
Yeah, say, I agree with that. That's the fear is
that it's it's not that they're super old, they're just
at the age where these guys get those little injuries.
That's that's the fear, right Like we've already had. You know,
even last year, Bryce Harper messed a decent amount of time.
He came back and obviously he was trying to get
into it, but he just wasn't not the same player
as he was before the injury. And even this season,
(13:45):
like you just talked about, the Dodgers have already had
a couple of guys get hurt, and it's like, that's
my fear of this Phillies teams. We're going to be
cruising and then come July, might have one or two
of these starters down have a couple of bats miss
from the lineup, and it feels like they're done at
that point. So yeah, to me, what you just talked about,
the Phillies needed to get off to a hot start.
Then the Cubs that, like, you know, these couple of
teams that needed a good start have had the good start.
(14:08):
So I think feel like you're in the same boat
as me Athany. I'm pretty happy. Is this the way
this season has been gun. As a Phillies fan, it
feels like we are on the top three, top four
teams in baseball right now.
Speaker 3 (14:18):
And Atlanta's too and nine.
Speaker 4 (14:19):
I mean that's you know, that's rare, right, So seeing
them all the way down there and you know they'll
have a rubber match with Atlanta, But if they're able
to win tonight Thursday, and they're able to, you know,
win two out of three against the Dodgers and the
Braves to start the season. I mean that's a really
encouraging sign because you know, the na L is really
really deep. You look at the Padres, the Giants kind
(14:40):
of surprising early this season, but especially the Mets and
the Braves and the Dodgers, Like there's so many teams.
It's a much more top heavy league than the even
the American League is where everybody's kind of jumbled in
the middle there. So it's going to be really competitive
for those top spots.
Speaker 1 (14:54):
When you look at a two and nine Brave seam,
this is a question for both of you. Do you
see futures opportunity? This team is too good not to
turn it around. Strange start, they've been historically bad. Like
runners in scoring position, it's wild even you know, Wednesday
night against Philly they had i think nine runners left
in the first five innings. Those are the kind of
(15:14):
things you just kind of expect.
Speaker 3 (15:15):
To even out.
Speaker 4 (15:17):
They're pitching depth, I think is a real question, like
is Sale going to be as good as he was
last year?
Speaker 3 (15:23):
Do they have enough starters? There's a lot more holes.
Speaker 4 (15:25):
Than I think people realize about Atlanta, but I think certainly,
like they're down to like minus one fifty to make
the playoffs, that might be a good bi low opportunity.
Speaker 2 (15:33):
Yeah, and they're also I mean, the thing that's working
against them, I feel like in the futures market is
the fact that they are in the division with the
Mets and the Phillies. Like the Mets look like a
pretty well put together team at this point. So, like
Anthony just said, the value is going to be on Atlanta,
Like there is really no difference between them and the
Phillies and then Mets. They're all kind of the same team.
They're all well built, they have a ton of talent.
(15:55):
I mean, you know, Zerrilla gave out Spencer the starting
pitcher for the Braves, like a crazy number for Cy Young,
He's already in the top ten right now for futures market.
So it's like, you know, Atlanta's got the arms, they
got the bats. It's like what Anthony just said, They've
been crazy unlucky and they had a tough start, right
They just played the Dodgers and the Phillies like two
(16:16):
of the best teams in baseball.
Speaker 3 (16:17):
And the Padres too.
Speaker 2 (16:18):
Yeah, yeah, I like where your head's at. Chat. That's
probably a smart time to maybe jump in. Or you
can wait until they lose the series against the Phillies
and you get even better odds.
Speaker 1 (16:26):
Like where your head's at. See I think about opportunity.
I see the whole goddamn board. Simon, Hey, speaking of board,
how do you like this transition? The NFL Draft is
coming up? Anthony loves the Indianapolis Colts. I don't know.
Speaker 3 (16:43):
Why sacrilegists in Philly. To be honest, what's that.
Speaker 4 (16:47):
It's pretty sacrilegious of me as a Philly guy, but
it's I'm not.
Speaker 2 (16:50):
Gonna let you. The first time he told me, I like,
did side at him. I'm like, what the fuck, dude,
you're a Philly guy?
Speaker 4 (16:55):
He thought Simon the first time I met him, He's like, dude,
you're always praising Dak on Twitter, Like, are you a
Cowboys fan? I'm like, no, I'm just a Colts fan
who likes Stack thinks he's good.
Speaker 1 (17:04):
But it is weird because you are such a Philly
dude that it's weird to me you would escape the
clutches of the Eagles and then not just that root
for the most random, nondescript, no personality team. And it's
(17:26):
not like, I mean, you're still a fucking baby. So
it's not like Peyton Manning was in his prime as
you were going through your teenage years of fandom.
Speaker 4 (17:39):
Andrew Luck was in this prime when I was going
through my teenage years of fandom.
Speaker 1 (17:43):
No.
Speaker 4 (17:43):
I think the origin story is weird but pretty simple.
Speaker 3 (17:47):
And it's that.
Speaker 4 (17:47):
So my dad owned a sports bar in South Philly
for many, many years, so the Eagles were always on,
and I was always around the Eagles, but he was
never that big of an Eagles fan. And my other
biggest sports influence is my older cousin who's like a
brother to me and grew up around the corner and
he was a Colts fan from his family. So we
just watched Colts games and I kind of copycatted him
(18:09):
when I was, you know, six five years old. And
did it help that the Colts were good? Sure, you know,
Peyton Manning was pretty good in two thousand and four,
but you know, it kind of just stuck. And then
when you know, they got rid of Peyton, I became
a Colts fan who also rooted for Peyton, and then
I kind of just stuck with it, and honestly, I
joked about this the last few months because of the
Eagles wining the Super Bowl.
Speaker 3 (18:29):
Probably a bad choice. I feel like I made a
bad organizational decision there.
Speaker 4 (18:33):
I should have been an Eagles fan and just rode
with the crowd because they've won, you know, two super
Bowls in the last eight years, and I was the
guy that was like, eh, yeah, you know, happy for
my friends, happy for my family who are Eagles fans,
but don't don't get moved by it.
Speaker 3 (18:46):
So it's been a weird place.
Speaker 1 (18:49):
Now we've got interesting quarterback selections at the top of
the draft, potentially cam Ward Schador Sanders. A few years
ago Muller's scenario, there were a lot of quarterback options.
The Colts won with Anthony Richardson. Simon loves Anthony Richardson
at the time for his upside. We had a long
(19:09):
conversation with Kevin Clark about the value of drafting for upside.
But then how you have to sort of nurture that
talent and you can't just sort of walk away from it.
You have to know what you're getting into. You look
at Anthony Richardson, to me, he's such a wild card
as a better and as for me as a better,
(19:33):
but also he's a wild card as a talent. Do
you look at it as someone who's watching this team
very closely but also betting regularly and see Anthony Richardson
as someone you would like to invest in as fan
and better?
Speaker 4 (19:49):
So I thought it was the for all the reasons
you talked about the Colts, you know, the nickname of
Indianapolis being Naptown for all those years, the patients and
sometimes astonishing patients that the Colts have had, and maybe
too much patients their front office has showed. I thought
that was the perfect organization for Anthony because, like you said,
he needed the time, He needed an organization and a
(20:10):
fan base who wasn't going to go turn on him
after eight games, after sixteen games. But it has certainly
been a rocky two years, and he's only played a
handful of games because of injury, and so I think
that is the most alarming thing for me as a fan.
As a better the Colts were better last season when
Richardson played, They were better against the number. They had
(20:32):
a bunch of close losses and covers. The I think
Richardson at one point was seven and one ats because
his running ability.
Speaker 3 (20:40):
In the red zone is effective.
Speaker 4 (20:42):
His running ability enables them to run the ball better
with Jonathan Taylor, things they were not getting with Joe Flacco.
And so there were plenty of bad but there was
also so much explosiveness in that team that you just
don't quite have with most quarterbacks. And so I have
no problem with the pick with chasing the upside as
a better going into this season.
Speaker 3 (21:02):
I think you're gonna know pretty quickly.
Speaker 4 (21:04):
You're gonna be able to tell even in training camp,
even in preseason. Richardson's mechanics is throwing mechanics, because they
haven't been great. He's struggled with the intermediate throws, and
he has a new throwing coach. He's working with the
guy who helped fix Josh Allen's mechanics. So that's what
we're clinging to as Colts fans and as potential over
seven and a half betters. But I think there's definitely
(21:26):
some kind of you know, stuck in the middle that
the Colts have. They've been sitting in this seven to
ten win range for basically since the day Andrew Luck retired,
and so it's been very weird to figure out how
they get to that next echelon in this this loaded AFC.
Speaker 1 (21:46):
Simon, please share with me your thoughts on Anthony's thoughts
on Anthony Richardson.
Speaker 2 (21:56):
Yeah, it's a lot, it's unpacked, just because they are
a team that that you know, my knock against them
is that they are part of this group of loud
owners loud ownership that seems like they keep trying to
run their own ship and that's the last thing you
want in football. And you know we've seen prime examples.
I mean just in one year of different ownership down
(22:17):
in Washington, right, he went from an owner that couldn't
stop being meddling in their business. You know, for sure,
if he was still the owner of Washington, he would
have taken Drake May last year with Jade Daniels like
it's it's not checking all that that they got rid
of him and they took the right quarterback for their
organization in Washington and with the Colts, I thought Anthony
Richard at the time was the right pick. And you know,
(22:40):
you go back and you look and go, yeah, sure
the dream would have been if CJ would have felt
them right, or if they would have traded up to
that three spot, taken him over the Texans, and we
talked chat at the time like that draft was going
to define this division over the next four to five
years or even longer. It was even quicker than that.
It was year one. CJ came out, won the division
and now he's back to back champions of this division.
(23:02):
Will Levis already out of a job, right. They're gonna
draft km Ward this year and we just talked with
Anthony richardson he might get beat out in camp by
Daniel Jones simply because Daniel Jones he is gonna be
better than Anthony Richards and a lot of stuff that,
you know, the intermediate throws, reading in a defense, all
of that, he's gonna have a leg up on him.
So you know, we're gonna learn a lot Chad this
upcoming season that it's gonna be ownership that's kind of
(23:25):
have to step and say we want Anthony Richards to
be the quarterback here or the coach. I'd be shocked
if he didn't say, well, Daniel Jones is outplayed in
the camp. We have to start Daniel Jones here. So
for the Colts, I hate it because it's like to me,
they should just roll Anthony richards once again. You know
you hopefully you see something from him this year three,
and if you don't, obviously you move on from him
(23:45):
to the quarterback position because Daniel Jones gets you what, Chad,
eight and nine, nine and eight. Maybe a playoff birth
because you're in such a weak division. But to me,
it's just it's a loser move. It's a no win move.
And yeah, I feel like I can hear in Anthony's
voice here a little bit of just like there's no hope,
but there's still a little bit of hope that he
shows up this offseason, had put in the work right,
(24:07):
got the right coaching staff, worked with the right QB
coach and doesn't make that year three change, or it
sucks like you've just wasted three years of the team.
And like he knows, they're losing offensive lineman Jonathan Taylor
is getting older like this, they might be for a
full rebuild these next couple of years if things just
go sour here, Chad, So it's bad.
Speaker 3 (24:25):
Here's the one thing.
Speaker 4 (24:27):
Anthony Richardson and cam Ward were born three days apart.
He's still only twenty two years old, and so maybe
it never happens. But this is the guy who barely
played in college, and so if you're betting on the upside,
like you said, they needed to be patient, they needed
to be able to wait.
Speaker 3 (24:46):
It out, and I can't.
Speaker 4 (24:48):
I always come back to that fact, which is just
that this guy is still only twenty two, and if
you treat him like he's coming in for and I'm
treating this like his year two because I thought his
year one he only played four games before he got
the shoulder injury. He was off for the year, so
you can't really evaluate that he didn't get a normal offseason.
So I'm treating this like his year two. And this
is kind of the make or break year, but maybe
(25:08):
it shouldn't even be because of how young he is
and how raw he is. But again, you know in
the NFL, they're not going to let you just sit
around and burn three or four years developing a quarterback
who came in the league at twenty.
Speaker 1 (25:20):
Well. I wonder if Shane Steiken bears some of the
responsibility in year two because he was brilliant in year
one as a play caller, right, and what he did
with Gardner Minshew and how he sort of turned that
team around in year two, I felt like there were
probably and we look, we watched a lot of Colts
games because we were always betting on the Colts because
(25:41):
we always felt they were undervalued. And most of the
time that you noted Anthony, they cashed and sort of
rewarded us with our courage. But there were a few
times where Anthony Richardson in games that he both covered
and didn't cover, was putting bad spots and making bad
decisions because of the play calling, and that was just
(26:02):
weird to me. Like Shane Steiken, I thought he was
the reason why the Eagles had won the Super Bowl
a couple of years ago, and all of a sudden
he wasn't looking as smart as I thought he was.
Speaker 4 (26:14):
It's the same cycle because the Eagles had Frank Reich
as the offensive coordinator, Doug Peterson was the head coach.
They won the Super Bowl in twenty seventeen, and then
Reich left to take the Colts job, and Reich immediately
had success as a Colts coach. You know, Andrew Luck
was the quarterback in twenty eighteen, and the Eagles kind
of had a steady descent, and the belief in Philly
(26:36):
at time was that Reich was the real genius, and
it was in Peterson.
Speaker 3 (26:40):
Fast forward three years. Both guys are now out of the.
Speaker 4 (26:43):
League, so I guess maybe who knows, But the same
cycle happened with Sirianni and Stichen, where Steichen was seen
as the genius. When the Eagles had this unbelievable collapse
last year, it was Stiking, it was Gad and Sirianni's loss.
Speaker 3 (26:56):
He doesn't know what he's doing.
Speaker 4 (26:58):
He should be fired. Everybody wanted him fire in Philly.
Anybody who says otherwise is probably lying. And yet we
come around and Stichan's on the hot seat ish entering
this season, and Sirianni's is your bull champ. So it's
just funny how we craft these like narratives based on
a handful of games and we end up being completely
right sometimes and completely wrong another time.
Speaker 1 (27:20):
What does that say about anything we're doing?
Speaker 3 (27:22):
Yeah, that's a good point. Maybe we don't know as
much as we think we know.
Speaker 1 (27:25):
I don't know we know more than we think we know,
or we know less than we think we know, but
we definitely don't know exactly the amount that we just
we know.
Speaker 3 (27:33):
We just want to be right like fifty four percent
of the time.
Speaker 1 (27:36):
Speaking of being right fifty four percent of the time,
what was your take on the Favorites constantly covering last
year and how is that impacting some of your off
season prep work.
Speaker 4 (27:47):
I don't want to take anything into consideration from last
season in terms of overreacting to a great Favorites run.
Now that could cost me a lot of money in
the upcoming fall.
Speaker 3 (27:58):
But I just what has fundamentally changed in the league.
Speaker 4 (28:04):
You know, maybe tanking is becoming more of a thing,
so in weeks like thirteen to eighteen, you maybe reconsider
some of those ugly ugly underdogs. But even still, like
the Giants still beat the Colts this year, there were
still like, you know, games where upsets happened, the Panthers
beating the Falcons on the final final game to knock
them out of playoff contention.
Speaker 3 (28:21):
So I think sometimes these things happen.
Speaker 4 (28:25):
And I'm trying not to make bold proclamations about like
what it means about football going forward, because I don't know.
Nothing that's really happening in the league is so different
than it used to be. Like teams are going forward
on fourth down more, I guess maybe that helps favorites.
Speaker 1 (28:42):
Well help that can't be. I don't disagree with you,
like we shouldn't be overreacting. A lot of the work
I've been doing this offseason has made me think maybe
I don't want to overreact. I think Simon feels differently.
But teams going forward on fourth down, that's that's the
ball game, that's not a let's just dismiss this one
(29:05):
little fact from the equation. That is the fact, and
that is sort of the line of demarcation between I
think people who are going to account for it and
make changes in people who aren't. Anthony, you can respond, Simon,
I would like your response after that, this is our
little MW. Blacklin group.
Speaker 3 (29:23):
But how do you try to predict it?
Speaker 2 (29:24):
Though?
Speaker 4 (29:25):
Like I mean, going in the last the Commanders were
like one hundred and eight percent on fourth down last year.
I don't know if that's I don't think that's sustainable.
I think the actual number was like eighty something. Do
you say they're going to automatically be better than every
other team on fourth down because of Jayden and Daniels?
Speaker 3 (29:39):
Do you say that was a one off? I don't know.
Speaker 4 (29:43):
I think that's the big question I do think though,
if the underdogs are going to start optimizing to try
to win games instead of playing not to lose, which
you see a lot. You see, like how many times
we see team in an underdog and they're like punting
on fourth and three. You know, if they're going for
it more, does that open up opportunities for the FA
favorites to get more margin? Maybe, But again it seems
very noisy to me year to year to be like, oh, actually,
(30:05):
now favorites are gonna win at a big rate. And
I think maybe there were just more bad teams than
usual last year, like also could have been part of it, Simon.
Speaker 2 (30:15):
Yeah, And my biggest hope is why Anthony Saint is
right of the fact that people like me are overadjusting.
The sportsbooks over adjusts as well, and we get two
to three extra free points of some of these dogs. Chat.
That would be amazing obviously for us, because then of
course we'd feel more comfortable. But you know, even talking
to the guys who've been doing it for a long time,
the change of either starting at your twenty after a
(30:39):
kickoff or starting your thirty five now after a kickoff
is so massive, like it really is, especially with these
good teams where me and you talk about chat, if
you pick up one first down, you were now at
the forty five or the forty seven. Like that now
puts that team, especially with a good quarterback that you
believe in, in the driver's seat, where it is a
major difference. Where it's like we saw last year, these
(31:01):
bad quarterbacks, the coaches didn't have faith in them, so
instead of going for it on fourth and two, fourth
and three from the opponents, you know, forty eight or
their own their own side of the ball, their own
forty eight, they just didn't do it right. They always
punted where the flip side the good teams went for it.
I mean me and Chad had multiple multiple weeks of
the dogs we bet were great in the first half,
(31:23):
and then the second half their teams were punting and
the other team were going for a fourth downs And
that's simply where like even when I went through the numbers,
we lost so many games on those type of scenarios
where historically we've always been good with the dogs, like
the home dogs have been good to us. So my
biggest adjustment to it is I'm not going to react
to it. Right, I'm still gonna do what we always do, Chad,
right in week one, Week two, it's always good to
(31:44):
take the dogs, right. The public will always react and
bet from the previous season. My big adjustment will be
that middle of the season, right when me and you
are really going through it, and that's when we usually
laying to the dogs that we saw last year, that
run that I mean, Evan kept talking about every week.
It was like the doll the favorites were hitting at
over sixty five percent, then it will get to seventy percent,
and it was like, this isn't going down, this is
(32:05):
going up. And that never happens with the book. So
that's that's my biggest adjustment I'm going to make is
I'm gonna go into the year hoping to bet dogs,
but I'm not gonna be stubborn like I was last year. Like,
if there's a team like the Titans like they were
this year, Chad, the worst team of football, me and
you are gonna try out think it. We're gonna bet
against them, right, We're gonna fade that bad quarterback because
that's going to be profitable in the way the league
(32:25):
has gone. So I'm interesting, You're Anthony's viewing that where
it's like I love betting on bad quarterbacks. That's really
shifted after last season where it's like we're dead, Like
these guys don't go for an on fourth down because
they know the quarterback sucks. Why would you ever go
for it with Will Levis on fourth down? You know
you're gonna lose that battle every time. When they did,
they lost sixteen straight games against the spread, something we
never seen before. So where are you at with that?
Speaker 4 (32:47):
Anthony ben Johnson made a really interesting comment the other
day about how EPA on passes is now more predicted
than turnover margin in football. That was really interesting to
me because I think a lot of times when we
watch games, we're like, oh, yeah, like the box score
was pretty even, but that one team they had like
three fluky turnovers.
Speaker 3 (33:05):
That's not going to continue.
Speaker 4 (33:07):
We need to start looking at this, I think from
like a quarterback passing game perspective and maybe overweight you know,
quarterbacks again. And it's simple and it's square right to
be like, oh, you know, I don't want to bet
Will Levis against insert good quarterback here. But as this
continues to trend, it's going to be really really hard
for the math to make sense as offenses get more efficient,
(33:30):
and one of the things you mentioned about early season.
Early season offenses were certainly down, like the first four weeks,
even the good teams were not as efficient offensively. I
wonder if that's a knock on from preseason, you know,
the preseason being dead. Do we see unders and underdogs
do better early and then the favorites kind of like
lock in kicking the gear, sort some things out and
(33:51):
play at a higher level down the stretch seems to
be especially with the extra week now and more playoff teams,
there's more margin for air for you to be like, ah,
you know, we're two and two four weeks and we
haven't looked very good and then we figured it out and.
Speaker 2 (34:03):
Easy teams to jump out for that what you just
said are like teams that liked the Eagles last year
had new coordinators. Detroit. It's gonna be a rough in
Detroit those first couple of weeks, right, They've lost their
offensive mind and their defensive mind, and you know, it
was really interesting. Brandon Graham was just recently on a
show with Kelsey Brothers and he talked about that losing
after the Super Bowl, losing both gain and shiking, and
(34:24):
he was just talking about they had new coaches coming
and he was just like, I don't know about these dudes.
And then they got rid of them, and his next
year they had new coaches in again. Last year and
he said fans came in and Kick clearly told them
the Eagles defense. He's like, you guys are lazy and
you're losers, and just basically talked shit to them for
the first three months, and he said it sucked like
they all hated him. They said it was brutal, and
then they started doing well and winning and he started
(34:47):
being cool with them. As time went on, he said,
we just kept getting better and better. He's went along
and that's that to me, is what you're talking about here,
where it's like, you know, these guys come in the preseason,
it's it's them trying to fix bad habits, not so
much to them learning a new d defensive scheme and
stuff like that. So it is gonna interest see these
teams that have new coordinators coming in big differences. Are
we gonna have an advantage there? Chat trying to fade
(35:07):
those teams that you know people are still going to
perceive this Detroit offense being of the best office on football.
How do you not think losing you know, an offensive
genius in Ben Johnson is not gonna be a big deal.
I think it's going to be. So. I think there's
gonna be some opportunity thus early on in the season
to fade some of these teams Chad and maybe.
Speaker 4 (35:22):
By Low, you know, midseason kind of thing, because they're
still very talented in Detroita.
Speaker 1 (35:27):
You mean like buying the Atlanta Braves Low. Yes, it's
interesting what you say about Ben Johnson. I saw that
same quote about EPA, and EPA has sort of become
the favorite stat of the NFL geekarate and at some
(35:47):
point doesn't that just become overvalued, Like if everyone is
incorporating into their model, if everyone is leaning into it,
it's very hard to look at that and say, Okay,
that's my north star of metrics when I'm thinking about
a play that I'm going to.
Speaker 4 (36:05):
Make for sure, and it's also not opponent adjusted usually,
so that's another part of it, which you know DVOA,
which I think was the original Digraatti. That one was
at least opponent adjusted, but it was harder to understand
and grasp. I think than EPA is because people can
kind of understand like positive negative, and you know what
impacts certain outlier plays can have.
Speaker 3 (36:27):
I like success rate.
Speaker 4 (36:28):
I think success rate is still king for me in
terms of like predictive value because you see these teams
and yes, explosiveness matters, but you know, you see these
teams that run off a couple of handful of extreme
outlier plays every game to juice their EPA numbers or
to do certain things. You can also do EPA without turnovers,
so there's ways to maybe massage and look look a
(36:50):
little deeper than just baseline EPA because there's all kinds
of there's almost too many stats now when it comes
to evaluating these football games.
Speaker 1 (36:59):
I agree and like, I love success rate, but then
you think about success rate and it's kind of it's
naturally evened out and doesn't account for the explosiveness that
is the ultimate game changer, literally in every single game
that determines if you're going to win or lose a bet. Right,
(37:20):
none of these games go flat, right, there's there are EKGs,
and success rate is a metric that is a flat line,
whereas the explosiveness you need to be able to account
for it like.
Speaker 4 (37:36):
Right, what is trench warfare? Success rate is the trench?
You're in the trench? Chinda, Yeah, move the trench ten
yards one way and then move it back ten yards
and then somebody throws a grenade and blows up.
Speaker 1 (37:46):
And it's all over and success rate success rate can't
beat a grenade, right, It's like rock, paper scissors, grenade
greater than success rate.
Speaker 3 (37:55):
There we go.
Speaker 4 (37:57):
Maybe we need to call it the new stat That's
what we need. I'm always thinking about that.
Speaker 1 (38:00):
We need a new stat. I think I might figure
one out. I think I'm getting it.
Speaker 3 (38:04):
Might have to be, might have to be.
Speaker 4 (38:05):
I feel like the luck rankings are somewhat of that nature,
like which laves more actually have been expected score.
Speaker 1 (38:10):
The luck rankings are brilliant and and you're absolutely right,
and shame on us for not mentioning that sooner, because
they are sort of a revolutionary stat that Nick Giffen
and Sean Kerner and Billy Warden and have sort of
worked on and thought a lot about it, and it's
obviously a really important part of what Simon and I
do during the season. We we love it, but now
(38:35):
we've talked about it too much. Other people might be
using it too.
Speaker 3 (38:38):
And nothing.
Speaker 4 (38:39):
Nothing stays. Nothing that's any good stays stays hidden forever.
Speaker 1 (38:43):
Nothing.
Speaker 4 (38:43):
Two or three years ago, used to go on Payoff
Pitch with Zarillo. We used to talk about Stuff Plus
how much we loved it. We had the charts and
we were discussing it. And now all I do on
baseball Twitter, everybody's talking about Stuff Plus and I'm like, uh,
it might be might be solved. People might know too
much about it now, might have to zag and go
the other way.
Speaker 1 (39:00):
Hey, you just came off a great run in college
basketball betting first to ten. I think yes, you could
follow that in the award winning Action Network app where
you're posting your picks explain yourself.
Speaker 4 (39:14):
So you know, you watch certain college basketball teams, you
start to notice patterns. And I it was a tournament
of the Favorite, right, so everybody was like, oh, I
got this dog plus eight and a half, and they
might be tied for a bit, but then they just
the favorite goes on a twenty zero run and you're
drawing dead by the under twelve in the second half.
And so Saint John's was playing Arkansas, and this was
(39:34):
the Friday night before and I was talking with John
Destremsky on our pod and we were talking about, hey,
like we I liked Arkansas a little bit, but I thaid,
I think they can hit him early. Saint John's have
been slow starters all year, which let's do Arkansas race
at ten. Like people have been having fun with these bets,
you like to take the underdog. Arkansas came out red hot.
I think it was like ten to two. I'm like,
this was easy. I should do this more often. So
(39:57):
it started with fading Saint John's and Michigan State, who
were two with these like overrated teams that started slow
every game, and we went to and oh and then
I was like, all right, well, now that I'm having
fun with this, let's do one per day for the
rest of the tournament.
Speaker 3 (40:09):
So we went out against.
Speaker 4 (40:10):
Alabama and BYU got run out of the gym, but
not in the first ten points. They didn't, so we
were three and oh and then I'm like, okay, we
get the fate of Michigan State again.
Speaker 3 (40:17):
We had all miss and then Texas Tech.
Speaker 4 (40:19):
So we kept betting all these underdogs and they kept
losing the game, but they kept winning the race to ten.
So it was really fun, and it ultimately culminated in
an eight and oh run, which came down to just
two incredible finishes.
Speaker 3 (40:33):
The last two.
Speaker 4 (40:33):
Games, Auburn was eight eight against Florida and they fouled
Jani Broom, who's a sixty percent free throw shooter, and
I'm running through the scenario. I'm like, all right, so
he's gonna make one of two. Florida's gonna come down,
They're gonna make a basket.
Speaker 3 (40:46):
I'm gonna lose. He nails both free throws. We're good.
Speaker 4 (40:49):
And then in the National Championship, like the mania had
gotten so crazy, I had two friends text me. They're like,
I've never placed a sports bet in my life, but
I'm on Houston with you. Race to ten ten dollars bet,
Like one guy had ten dollars, one guy had twenty dollars.
They're down eight six, they get a basket, Walter Clayton
makes the worst pass you've ever seen.
Speaker 3 (41:08):
They turn it over.
Speaker 4 (41:09):
But now it's the media timeout, so I'm like shaking
during the media timeout, being like, oh my gosh, we
got to wait four minutes for this game to come back.
But I'm thinking Houston's going to have a good play
coming out of this time out. They run a beautiful
slip screen dunk posterization.
Speaker 3 (41:25):
Me and my buddies are at softball.
Speaker 4 (41:26):
We're losing our minds celebrating because I had the whole
team on the bet and we finished the eight and
oh run and I'll bring it back next March.
Speaker 1 (41:34):
That is the ultimate to phileas scum bag degenerate run
right there.
Speaker 4 (41:38):
Well, because we're all going crazy and people are looking
at us, like from the other team, they're like, what's
going on? Like why are these guys yelling about the
basketball game?
Speaker 3 (41:46):
It just started. We're like, well, they got to ten first.
Speaker 4 (41:50):
They lost the game too, by the way, So eight
and zero on the run the teams who got to
ten first, two and six when it comes to winning
the game.
Speaker 1 (41:57):
Before we let you go, we can't let you go
without noting that the Philadelphia seventy six ers are thirty
two games below five hundred, so, you know, decent chance
they get their top five protected pick. Decent chance, thirty
five percent chance they don't have any pick because they
have to give it to OKC, one of the best
(42:18):
teams in the league if it's below top five Cleveland
OKC number one number one in Eastern and Western Conference?
Do you have any thoughts on your NBA Finals winner?
Speaker 4 (42:36):
So I don't know how it's not Cleveland or Boston
from the East based on some very very baseline level
analysis that I've done and listen to some of my
colleagues who follow it more closely than I do. But
in the West, I think it could be more interesting.
I mean, okay, see, is historic really good And I
think maybe we'll all look back and be like, yeah, idiots,
(42:56):
it was always going to be okay, see, look at
how good they are. But I think that's the difference
where there could be more parody, more intrigue, you.
Speaker 3 (43:04):
Know, if you want to get really crazy.
Speaker 4 (43:06):
I was joking around like if the Clippers stay healthy
and if James Harden, you know, we're asking for something
that usually doesn't happen.
Speaker 3 (43:12):
But if they do it, I think they have a
pretty high ceiling.
Speaker 4 (43:14):
They're like thirty thirty to one, thirty five to one
to win the finals, in like fifteen to one, sixteen
to one to win the West, so they would probably
be the team right now. I think if you're looking
to get in because the Warriors, the Lakers, like people
have caught onto them, the Thunder or the Thunder.
Speaker 3 (43:27):
Who's the next team.
Speaker 4 (43:28):
It's probably the Clippers, but I kind of think, like
every other sport these days, it's probably just going to
be chocky with Oka see versus either Boston or Cleveland.
Speaker 3 (43:37):
Probably Boston.
Speaker 1 (43:39):
There's some stat I can't remember, but similar to the
NFL where the teams that have the shortest odds to
start the season, like twelve to oh, twelve, twelve to
one or less, that matchup usually plays out and one
of those teams wins the Super Bowl. I can't remember
how long it's been to it's a team that was
(44:02):
outside the top four or five and shortest.
Speaker 2 (44:04):
Odds to believe with Dallas Mavericks to win. Yeah, I
think Evan had some crazy stat like that was it?
Speaker 1 (44:11):
What you mean, the Dirk Mavericks.
Speaker 2 (44:13):
The Dirk Mavericks, right, the longish odds in recent and
recent Yeah, that could be a yeah, I feel of
Golden State first first time Golden State, right, Sorry, Yeah,
that was like everyone knew was coming, but no one
really knew. I think they were greater than what you
had saying it's ten to one.
Speaker 1 (44:31):
It's been a long time.
Speaker 4 (44:32):
Yeah, all right, you usually takes something crazy to happen, Like,
you know, the Raptors got their win, but then that
was when like the whole Warriors team ended up hurt
by the end of the finals, or you know, you
look at like even that whole run, like Kd's toe
is on the line or whatever. So yeah, over the years,
it's been been pretty schocky. It looks that way now.
(44:52):
I mean we've had teams get to the finals. The
Heat have gotten to the finals. I think that people
are shocked by that. But I think it's pretty shocking
that to actually win it is a different story. Like
even the MAVs last year came out of nowhere, but
they didn't win it, right, they got close.
Speaker 2 (45:06):
We got to end on a football there, Chad. So also,
if forgot to mention the top of the show, gotta
download the Masters app if you're gambling on the Masters.
The Masters App is the greatest thing ever invented for gamblers,
So please download it. But Anthony, you're a Colts fan.
You guys got to pick fourteen? Who the fuck do
you want? If you take Sanders? Are you gonna kill yourself?
(45:29):
What's gonna happen to pick fourteen?
Speaker 3 (45:30):
Years because I'll be very upset if we take Sanders.
I think I would be pretty shocked if we took Sanders.
Speaker 2 (45:37):
Me too.
Speaker 3 (45:37):
But you know, I think the tight ends are the
two tight ends. Tyler Warren.
Speaker 2 (45:44):
There's no way Tyler Warren drops you. Chad's getting Tyler Warren.
Speaker 4 (45:48):
Yeah, So I think a lot of people are understanding
that we're probably not going to get him, but Loveland's
the next guy. Yeah, Well we are one pick ahead
of the Chargers, who a lot of people think Jimmy's
gonna want Loveland.
Speaker 3 (45:58):
So I think that we're kind of in that.
Speaker 4 (46:02):
Mix for for Loveland and and that'll be where we
end up.
Speaker 2 (46:06):
But any of the receivers do you like or you don't?
Speaker 4 (46:07):
You' He drafted a lot of receivers and they don't
usually take the first round. Just he'd like to take
second and third round receivers. Yeah, because Pittman was second round,
Mitchell was second round, Pierce was second round. So they've
liked the kind of that tier of receiver and you
could argue maybe they should take a bigger shot. But
I think, you know, tight end has been a black
hole for the Colts for really since, like Eric Ebron
(46:28):
and and.
Speaker 3 (46:29):
Uh and Derek Allen and Dwayne Allen.
Speaker 1 (46:32):
Way back in the day, Ken from Illinois, Dallas Clark,
Dallas Clark. He was pretty good.
Speaker 4 (46:39):
But so they've had issues. They drafted, you know, some
mid round guys that haven't quite panned out. I think
it's something that they want to solidify. So I think
tight end will be in the mix. If not, just
always assume that Ballard will take some freaky eight defensive
end athlete who's ends up being just average.
Speaker 2 (46:56):
I would yeah, okay, I'll bet that.
Speaker 1 (46:59):
Before Anthony was I did a story for Sports Illustrated
about Ken Dilger the Indianapolis Colts tight End. As a reminder,
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(47:20):
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(47:40):
or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms condition
and restrictions apply. Thank you Anthony Debundo from the Ringer
for joining our show. Continue to do amazing work over there,
Simon and I will return with our next episode of
the Favorites on the Action Never're You two page Tuesday,
one thirty pm Eastern, talking NFL Draft with another former
(48:03):
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Speaker 3 (48:13):
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Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast presented by BET
three six five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today. I'm
joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre,
my BFF professional better, Simon Hunter Elo Simon, Hello.
Speaker 2 (00:28):
Chad, did you watch that uh Lucas homecoming last night?
Speaker 1 (00:32):
That I watched the Lucas homecoming last night?
Speaker 2 (00:36):
Yeah?
Speaker 1 (00:36):
Doncic oh, oh Luca Lucas homecoming. Yeah, I watched the
whole thing. I watched the whole game. My kid and
I were riveted. It was awesome. He was on fire.
The tears were flowing in the beginning.
Speaker 2 (00:49):
That was hoppy to me. Him crying at the beginning.
This man is crying about the Dallas Mavericks. How did
they let him go? You had a player that cared
about playing in Dallas.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
He had a guy. They put up a graphic which
I think I must have forgotten that Luca, at twenty
eight point six points per game, has the third highest
scoring average in NBA history, after Michael Jordan and Wilt Chamberlain.
How the fuck do you let that? It's like still astonishing,
(01:23):
It's so astonishing that it's not even like that. Michael
Malone getting fired with three games left after two years
after winning a title, and he's got his team like
in fourth place in the Western Conference with the best
player in the world. That's like an old conversation because
Luca's is so so big. Last night was great. It
(01:46):
was a great game. He was on fire. I love
the way JJ Reddick handled at the end. They went
into a timeout after he scored one more basket to
basically seal the game. Came out of it. He filed
the guy. They brought him off. The fans were sharing
it was just such come up and so great, so
(02:06):
many fire and Nico chants. It was awesome.
Speaker 2 (02:09):
And I'm on the other side of it, people like
were so upset and remember just during the SUPERWL week
everyone was shocked by it. I am another way where
it's like, this is why I kind of love the NBA,
because it's like we all know it's kind of rigged,
and what world does the best player. It'd be like,
you know, Joe bro being traded to the Bears, like
doesn't make any sense, just sending the guy from Cincinnati
to Chicago. Same thing here. It's like of course he
(02:32):
went to the Lakers. It's like of all the teams
that he quietly went to and had to be the Lakers.
So to me, I've loved it. It feels like it
brought some life into the NBA this season, where not
that it was a boring season any measures, but it
was like these teams people didn't care about Oklahoma City
in Cleveland. It's like, Okay, at least we have the Lakers.
(02:52):
Like the fact that this brought a whole spark of
the league. I've loved it. So yeah, last night it's
it's the best night too, is a better because it's
like I did the Chalky bet bet on Luca Points,
bet on them to win the game, and yeah, he
showed up and just absolutely dominated. So yeah, that was
That was a really fun game.
Speaker 1 (03:08):
I love that for you. I love that the Master
tease off today. In fact, it already has. Baseball is back,
the Draft is looming. We had great NBA action last
night with the MAVs and the Lakers. The NBA playoff
are right around the corner. Joining us today to discuss
all things sports and sports betting. A true Philly scumbag
(03:30):
like the kind of better that We absolutely love our
former colleague now working at the Ringer from the fighting
city of Philadelphia. He came to our live share in
Philly mainly because I made him Anthony Debundo.
Speaker 3 (03:47):
Good to be here.
Speaker 4 (03:48):
And I'll be honest, when you texted me to scout
some locations, I was incredibly honored. I was like, of
all the people that Chad knows in Philly, he's texting
me to be like, hey, you know any bars that
we could do the event, and the bar that you
guys picked was on my list.
Speaker 3 (04:03):
So that was very honored and then quite a story.
Speaker 4 (04:06):
I don't know if you've talked to Evan Abrams about
that night, but the adventure of getting him to the
Amtrak train at thirtieth Street was one I'll never forget.
Speaker 1 (04:15):
Well, Number one, I texted you because you're our audience,
like sweet guy, probably bets too much love sports representative
of the Philly scumbag ethos. Also, you were raised in
a bar, so I figure like, if anybody is going
to know where like a good time could be had
(04:38):
for people like him, it would be you. I haven't
heard the Evan Abrams story. I don't really care. As
a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three
sixty five and New Bet three sixty five. Customers get
one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets when you
bet five dollars sign up using promo code Favorites deposit
ten dollars. Place at bet for five dollars to get
(04:59):
a n and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus
bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures,
and more, whatever the moment, it's never ordinary at Bet
three sixty five. Must be twenty one or older and
present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Louisiana, North Carolina,
New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky.
Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight
(05:20):
hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditioned restrictions apply. Oh like,
all right now, I'm getting dreamed here for not wanting
to know about Evan Abram, So go ahead, tell us
the Evan Abram story. Please Anthony share.
Speaker 4 (05:38):
So if you remember like that Thursday night game, it
was Niners Rams. It was one of the worst Thursday
night games maybe played all year, which was unfortunate. But
Evan had a train that he had to make that
was getting back to New York and it was either
make that train or wait like two hours and beyond,
like the Midnight Express that you really don't ever want
to be on on the Amtrak Northeast Regional.
Speaker 3 (05:58):
And so he's like, I got fifteen minutes.
Speaker 4 (05:59):
Do you think we can make it from you know,
Wicked Wolf Downtown Center City, Philadelphia all the way out
to thirtieth Street. I'm like, yeah, we'll make it. So
you're driving him or I'm driving. Yes, I'm driving. So
I am trying to hit or hit, you know, get
through these lights. And we hit maybe every light possible
in the ten minutes. And you know, we've all done
this before, like the will you make it? Won't they
(06:21):
make it? So we pull up to the corner that's
opposite thirtieth Street and the train is taking off in
two minutes. I'm like, dude, you're never gonna make it
if we sit at this red light. So he just
jets out of the car. He's sprinting across the street.
Backpack on his pants are falling down. I'm watching him
like trying to pull up his pants as he's running
across the street. People are honking at him because he's
basically you know, the light is green and he's like
(06:42):
just running through traffic. Here there's a scene from a movie.
So he runs into the platform. I have no idea.
Now did he make the train? Did he not make
the train? And I'm driving home waiting for the text
to pop up from Evan. He said, you won't believe this,
and I couldn't believe it. But I got to the platform,
the trade started to close and started rolling away, So
I jumped onto the sidecar until the conductor saw me
(07:03):
and then eventually opened the door. So he made this
train by like five seconds. Technically didn't even make the train.
Speaker 1 (07:10):
And I just pumped jumped onto this like was the
door closed? Was he like Tom Cruise and mission impossible?
Holding onto the side of the train while it was
leaving the station.
Speaker 3 (07:21):
That's how it reads to me. I don't even know.
Speaker 1 (07:28):
I feel like, wouldn't they emergency stopped the train right
in their tracks? It would be a delay and Evan
would probably get arrested. Like you can't jump on the
train and just be on it as it slowly, holding
on by your fingertips to the door.
Speaker 2 (07:46):
Yeah he did. He did mention that he got screamed
at Philadelphia style for doing it, but as a man
of New York born and raised, that it made no
difference to Evan. It was a past fail test. The
guy opened the door and had thus lost, so he
happily took a seat. But yeah, it was.
Speaker 3 (08:01):
It was a Tom Cruise asked moment for our own Evan.
Speaker 1 (08:04):
Abrams, and this is the one time he doesn't join
the show. Unbelievable, seriously unreal.
Speaker 3 (08:11):
So a lot of.
Speaker 4 (08:11):
Respect was gained for Evan that night. For me, I
didn't know that he had that in him. Sprinting across
the street through traffic, running down the platform, jumping onto
a slowly moving train to save an hour and a
half of sitting at thirtieth Street in a dark Thursday
night and boring rain.
Speaker 1 (08:27):
Yeah, Evan's got a lot of dog in him, a
lot like hardcore New York City raised, grew up betting sports.
God knows what else. I don't think like a slow
rolling train out of Philly is gonna scare him.
Speaker 2 (08:44):
Yeah. I was gonna say, we have one producer in
Evan that can make that run that jump, and our
other producer, Gifford simply falls down the subway stairs and
breaks his hip. Just two totally different men in this world.
Speaker 3 (08:55):
Oh man, dude, that story have been told on this
show before?
Speaker 1 (09:00):
What's that?
Speaker 3 (09:00):
Has that story been told on this show before?
Speaker 2 (09:02):
Now?
Speaker 1 (09:02):
I was gonna tell it, Go ahead and tell it.
Speaker 4 (09:05):
So what was it last? It was wild Card weekend.
Speaker 1 (09:09):
Four, twenty twenty three, I.
Speaker 4 (09:12):
Think, No, No, it was it was last year. It
was it was the Yeah, it was Wilder our weekend
last year. And he had left to go back to
Hoboken on the Path Train, and all of a sudden,
Christina Ventura, who used to work at Action, she came
in and was like, is anybody sober at this party?
Speaker 3 (09:30):
And I'm like, yeah, I raised my hand. She's like,
gif Herd needs help.
Speaker 4 (09:34):
So here we are, Christina and I go into try
to find which entrance of the Path Train at twenty
third and sixth.
Speaker 3 (09:40):
He's on a street, right. It was pouring rain on
flooding the stage by the way.
Speaker 4 (09:45):
Yeah, and we find him and he's just like sitting
there on the steps, like just wincing in pain. And
we eventually you know, Christina stayed with him and we
got his stuff, and you know today took care of him.
Speaker 3 (09:58):
I think he was in surgery like two days later.
Speaker 1 (10:00):
But he broke his hip.
Speaker 3 (10:01):
Yeah, he done it before.
Speaker 1 (10:03):
I believe he was turning thirty. He broke his hip
for the second time. It was the other hip. So
now we've got one producer who is so bold he
will jump on a moving train rather than spend another
two freaking hours in Philadelphia, and one producer who is
so fragile he's already got more hip injuries than my
(10:25):
eighty five year old mother in law.
Speaker 3 (10:29):
So the Dreams crew, it probably goes really well on
a Hinge prompt.
Speaker 1 (10:33):
That's what I can see why Dbundo ran out of
here as fast as he possibly could. Once Bill called.
He was like, I cannot work with these people anymore. Yeah, anyways,
baseball season started, Simon, do you want to commiserate with
your fellow Philly fanatic for a second.
Speaker 2 (10:49):
Yeah, let's jump into it. Brother. It's you know, we're
both huge Phillies guys. You know, Zerrilla came on here,
like you said, he was not, you know, giving out
the Phillies over, which was a to me, what we
know about the Phillies this year, Like, we're off to
a great start. What's gonna carry us the bundo? Is
it our pitching? Is it our bats? Like, I mean,
I'm sure you're already the same spot they need, you know,
(11:11):
they need to change the lineup already because we have
a couple of dead bats in the middle of the lineup. Like,
what's your view on the Phillies for this upcoming season?
You think they're gonna keep staying hopping the second best
team in baseball? Or do you think they're gonna fall off? Yeah?
Speaker 3 (11:23):
I think it's funny how the Phillies have changed.
Speaker 4 (11:25):
So they used to be back in twenty twenty two,
when they first made the run and burst onto the scene,
it was like, oh, they're your lovable Beer League softball team.
They hit a bunch of homers and you know, they
don't really play defense, and their pitching is kind of iffy.
But really, like, the reason the Phillies are good in
twenty twenty five is their rotation. And I think when
you look at this rotation, this group of four and
(11:46):
Ranger Suarez is coming back eventually five pitchers, they're the
best and most reliable rotation in baseball. And you know,
for all the talk about the Dodgers preseason and this
incredible rotation of names, it only took fourteen games for
them to start too. Dude who most people have never
heard of because of injuries and certain guys missing time.
So the Phillies with Wheeler and Nola and Chris Sanchez
(12:07):
breakout and Lozardo him having a couple of great starts
here and looking really good. They're in every game like
it's very hard to beat them in a kind of
a laugher because they're just They're pitching is so good
and so reliable, and you know, there's still a lot
of star power in this lineup. I know they're getting older,
but they're not old. They're older, but they're not old.
Speaker 1 (12:27):
Well, define like their window, what is older? Like when
do they get old?
Speaker 3 (12:34):
That's the big question I've said.
Speaker 4 (12:36):
So Zach Wheeler signed a three year extension, so he's
going to be pitching for the next three years.
Speaker 3 (12:42):
I think that is their window.
Speaker 4 (12:43):
So long as Wheeler is as dominant as he's been,
and he's been you could argue the best pitcher over
the last five years cumulative in baseball.
Speaker 3 (12:50):
As long as he's throwing.
Speaker 4 (12:52):
And as long as Harper and Turner and Schwerber are
producing at the heart of this lineup, I think they're
going to be in that mix. And it's not that
they don't have prospects, because they've got a guy Andrew
Painter who's coming up June July, and he's gonna be,
you know, one of the top pitching prospects in baseball.
He could be kind of the gap, the bridging of
the gap. He could be in the bullpen come playoff time.
There are certainly holes with the Phillies. They are the
(13:14):
third oldest lineup in baseball, but a lot of these
guys are like thirty one to thirty three. It's not
like they're relying on a bunch of thirty six year
olds who are on their last legs.
Speaker 2 (13:24):
Yeah, say, I agree with that. That's the fear is
that it's it's not that they're super old, they're just
at the age where these guys get those little injuries.
That's that's the fear, right Like we've already had. You know,
even last year, Bryce Harper messed a decent amount of time.
He came back and obviously he was trying to get
into it, but he just wasn't not the same player
as he was before the injury. And even this season,
(13:45):
like you just talked about, the Dodgers have already had
a couple of guys get hurt, and it's like, that's
my fear of this Phillies teams. We're going to be
cruising and then come July, might have one or two
of these starters down have a couple of bats miss
from the lineup, and it feels like they're done at
that point. So yeah, to me, what you just talked about,
the Phillies needed to get off to a hot start.
Then the Cubs that, like, you know, these couple of
teams that needed a good start have had the good start.
(14:08):
So I think feel like you're in the same boat
as me Athany. I'm pretty happy. Is this the way
this season has been gun. As a Phillies fan, it
feels like we are on the top three, top four
teams in baseball right now.
Speaker 3 (14:18):
And Atlanta's too and nine.
Speaker 4 (14:19):
I mean that's you know, that's rare, right, So seeing
them all the way down there and you know they'll
have a rubber match with Atlanta, But if they're able
to win tonight Thursday, and they're able to, you know,
win two out of three against the Dodgers and the
Braves to start the season. I mean that's a really
encouraging sign because you know, the na L is really
really deep. You look at the Padres, the Giants kind
(14:40):
of surprising early this season, but especially the Mets and
the Braves and the Dodgers, Like there's so many teams.
It's a much more top heavy league than the even
the American League is where everybody's kind of jumbled in
the middle there. So it's going to be really competitive
for those top spots.
Speaker 1 (14:54):
When you look at a two and nine Brave seam,
this is a question for both of you. Do you
see futures opportunity? This team is too good not to
turn it around. Strange start, they've been historically bad. Like
runners in scoring position, it's wild even you know, Wednesday
night against Philly they had i think nine runners left
in the first five innings. Those are the kind of
(15:14):
things you just kind of expect.
Speaker 3 (15:15):
To even out.
Speaker 4 (15:17):
They're pitching depth, I think is a real question, like
is Sale going to be as good as he was
last year?
Speaker 3 (15:23):
Do they have enough starters? There's a lot more holes.
Speaker 4 (15:25):
Than I think people realize about Atlanta, but I think certainly,
like they're down to like minus one fifty to make
the playoffs, that might be a good bi low opportunity.
Speaker 2 (15:33):
Yeah, and they're also I mean, the thing that's working
against them, I feel like in the futures market is
the fact that they are in the division with the
Mets and the Phillies. Like the Mets look like a
pretty well put together team at this point. So, like
Anthony just said, the value is going to be on Atlanta,
Like there is really no difference between them and the
Phillies and then Mets. They're all kind of the same team.
They're all well built, they have a ton of talent.
(15:55):
I mean, you know, Zerrilla gave out Spencer the starting
pitcher for the Braves, like a crazy number for Cy Young,
He's already in the top ten right now for futures market.
So it's like, you know, Atlanta's got the arms, they
got the bats. It's like what Anthony just said, They've
been crazy unlucky and they had a tough start, right
They just played the Dodgers and the Phillies like two
(16:16):
of the best teams in baseball.
Speaker 3 (16:17):
And the Padres too.
Speaker 2 (16:18):
Yeah, yeah, I like where your head's at. Chat. That's
probably a smart time to maybe jump in. Or you
can wait until they lose the series against the Phillies
and you get even better odds.
Speaker 1 (16:26):
Like where your head's at. See I think about opportunity.
I see the whole goddamn board. Simon, Hey, speaking of board,
how do you like this transition? The NFL Draft is
coming up? Anthony loves the Indianapolis Colts. I don't know.
Speaker 3 (16:43):
Why sacrilegists in Philly. To be honest, what's that.
Speaker 4 (16:47):
It's pretty sacrilegious of me as a Philly guy, but
it's I'm not.
Speaker 2 (16:50):
Gonna let you. The first time he told me, I like,
did side at him. I'm like, what the fuck, dude,
you're a Philly guy?
Speaker 4 (16:55):
He thought Simon the first time I met him, He's like, dude,
you're always praising Dak on Twitter, Like, are you a
Cowboys fan? I'm like, no, I'm just a Colts fan
who likes Stack thinks he's good.
Speaker 1 (17:04):
But it is weird because you are such a Philly
dude that it's weird to me you would escape the
clutches of the Eagles and then not just that root
for the most random, nondescript, no personality team. And it's
(17:26):
not like, I mean, you're still a fucking baby. So
it's not like Peyton Manning was in his prime as
you were going through your teenage years of fandom.
Speaker 4 (17:39):
Andrew Luck was in this prime when I was going
through my teenage years of fandom.
Speaker 1 (17:43):
No.
Speaker 4 (17:43):
I think the origin story is weird but pretty simple.
Speaker 3 (17:47):
And it's that.
Speaker 4 (17:47):
So my dad owned a sports bar in South Philly
for many, many years, so the Eagles were always on,
and I was always around the Eagles, but he was
never that big of an Eagles fan. And my other
biggest sports influence is my older cousin who's like a
brother to me and grew up around the corner and
he was a Colts fan from his family. So we
just watched Colts games and I kind of copycatted him
(18:09):
when I was, you know, six five years old. And
did it help that the Colts were good? Sure, you know,
Peyton Manning was pretty good in two thousand and four,
but you know, it kind of just stuck. And then
when you know, they got rid of Peyton, I became
a Colts fan who also rooted for Peyton, and then
I kind of just stuck with it, and honestly, I
joked about this the last few months because of the
Eagles wining the Super Bowl.
Speaker 3 (18:29):
Probably a bad choice. I feel like I made a
bad organizational decision there.
Speaker 4 (18:33):
I should have been an Eagles fan and just rode
with the crowd because they've won, you know, two super
Bowls in the last eight years, and I was the
guy that was like, eh, yeah, you know, happy for
my friends, happy for my family who are Eagles fans,
but don't don't get moved by it.
Speaker 3 (18:46):
So it's been a weird place.
Speaker 1 (18:49):
Now we've got interesting quarterback selections at the top of
the draft, potentially cam Ward Schador Sanders. A few years
ago Muller's scenario, there were a lot of quarterback options.
The Colts won with Anthony Richardson. Simon loves Anthony Richardson
at the time for his upside. We had a long
(19:09):
conversation with Kevin Clark about the value of drafting for upside.
But then how you have to sort of nurture that
talent and you can't just sort of walk away from it.
You have to know what you're getting into. You look
at Anthony Richardson, to me, he's such a wild card
as a better and as for me as a better,
(19:33):
but also he's a wild card as a talent. Do
you look at it as someone who's watching this team
very closely but also betting regularly and see Anthony Richardson
as someone you would like to invest in as fan
and better?
Speaker 4 (19:49):
So I thought it was the for all the reasons
you talked about the Colts, you know, the nickname of
Indianapolis being Naptown for all those years, the patients and
sometimes astonishing patients that the Colts have had, and maybe
too much patients their front office has showed. I thought
that was the perfect organization for Anthony because, like you said,
he needed the time, He needed an organization and a
(20:10):
fan base who wasn't going to go turn on him
after eight games, after sixteen games. But it has certainly
been a rocky two years, and he's only played a
handful of games because of injury, and so I think
that is the most alarming thing for me as a fan.
As a better the Colts were better last season when
Richardson played, They were better against the number. They had
(20:32):
a bunch of close losses and covers. The I think
Richardson at one point was seven and one ats because
his running ability.
Speaker 3 (20:40):
In the red zone is effective.
Speaker 4 (20:42):
His running ability enables them to run the ball better
with Jonathan Taylor, things they were not getting with Joe Flacco.
And so there were plenty of bad but there was
also so much explosiveness in that team that you just
don't quite have with most quarterbacks. And so I have
no problem with the pick with chasing the upside as
a better going into this season.
Speaker 3 (21:02):
I think you're gonna know pretty quickly.
Speaker 4 (21:04):
You're gonna be able to tell even in training camp,
even in preseason. Richardson's mechanics is throwing mechanics, because they
haven't been great. He's struggled with the intermediate throws, and
he has a new throwing coach. He's working with the
guy who helped fix Josh Allen's mechanics. So that's what
we're clinging to as Colts fans and as potential over
seven and a half betters. But I think there's definitely
(21:26):
some kind of you know, stuck in the middle that
the Colts have. They've been sitting in this seven to
ten win range for basically since the day Andrew Luck retired,
and so it's been very weird to figure out how
they get to that next echelon in this this loaded AFC.
Speaker 1 (21:46):
Simon, please share with me your thoughts on Anthony's thoughts
on Anthony Richardson.
Speaker 2 (21:56):
Yeah, it's a lot, it's unpacked, just because they are
a team that that you know, my knock against them
is that they are part of this group of loud
owners loud ownership that seems like they keep trying to
run their own ship and that's the last thing you
want in football. And you know we've seen prime examples.
I mean just in one year of different ownership down
(22:17):
in Washington, right, he went from an owner that couldn't
stop being meddling in their business. You know, for sure,
if he was still the owner of Washington, he would
have taken Drake May last year with Jade Daniels like
it's it's not checking all that that they got rid
of him and they took the right quarterback for their
organization in Washington and with the Colts, I thought Anthony
Richard at the time was the right pick. And you know,
(22:40):
you go back and you look and go, yeah, sure
the dream would have been if CJ would have felt
them right, or if they would have traded up to
that three spot, taken him over the Texans, and we
talked chat at the time like that draft was going
to define this division over the next four to five
years or even longer. It was even quicker than that.
It was year one. CJ came out, won the division
and now he's back to back champions of this division.
(23:02):
Will Levis already out of a job, right. They're gonna
draft km Ward this year and we just talked with
Anthony richardson he might get beat out in camp by
Daniel Jones simply because Daniel Jones he is gonna be
better than Anthony Richards and a lot of stuff that,
you know, the intermediate throws, reading in a defense, all
of that, he's gonna have a leg up on him.
So you know, we're gonna learn a lot Chad this
upcoming season that it's gonna be ownership that's kind of
(23:25):
have to step and say we want Anthony Richards to
be the quarterback here or the coach. I'd be shocked
if he didn't say, well, Daniel Jones is outplayed in
the camp. We have to start Daniel Jones here. So
for the Colts, I hate it because it's like to me,
they should just roll Anthony richards once again. You know
you hopefully you see something from him this year three,
and if you don't, obviously you move on from him
(23:45):
to the quarterback position because Daniel Jones gets you what, Chad,
eight and nine, nine and eight. Maybe a playoff birth
because you're in such a weak division. But to me,
it's just it's a loser move. It's a no win move.
And yeah, I feel like I can hear in Anthony's
voice here a little bit of just like there's no hope,
but there's still a little bit of hope that he
shows up this offseason, had put in the work right,
(24:07):
got the right coaching staff, worked with the right QB
coach and doesn't make that year three change, or it
sucks like you've just wasted three years of the team.
And like he knows, they're losing offensive lineman Jonathan Taylor
is getting older like this, they might be for a
full rebuild these next couple of years if things just
go sour here, Chad, So it's bad.
Speaker 3 (24:25):
Here's the one thing.
Speaker 4 (24:27):
Anthony Richardson and cam Ward were born three days apart.
He's still only twenty two years old, and so maybe
it never happens. But this is the guy who barely
played in college, and so if you're betting on the upside,
like you said, they needed to be patient, they needed
to be able to wait.
Speaker 3 (24:46):
It out, and I can't.
Speaker 4 (24:48):
I always come back to that fact, which is just
that this guy is still only twenty two, and if
you treat him like he's coming in for and I'm
treating this like his year two because I thought his
year one he only played four games before he got
the shoulder injury. He was off for the year, so
you can't really evaluate that he didn't get a normal offseason.
So I'm treating this like his year two. And this
is kind of the make or break year, but maybe
(25:08):
it shouldn't even be because of how young he is
and how raw he is. But again, you know in
the NFL, they're not going to let you just sit
around and burn three or four years developing a quarterback
who came in the league at twenty.
Speaker 1 (25:20):
Well. I wonder if Shane Steiken bears some of the
responsibility in year two because he was brilliant in year
one as a play caller, right, and what he did
with Gardner Minshew and how he sort of turned that
team around in year two, I felt like there were
probably and we look, we watched a lot of Colts
games because we were always betting on the Colts because
(25:41):
we always felt they were undervalued. And most of the
time that you noted Anthony, they cashed and sort of
rewarded us with our courage. But there were a few
times where Anthony Richardson in games that he both covered
and didn't cover, was putting bad spots and making bad
decisions because of the play calling, and that was just
(26:02):
weird to me. Like Shane Steiken, I thought he was
the reason why the Eagles had won the Super Bowl
a couple of years ago, and all of a sudden
he wasn't looking as smart as I thought he was.
Speaker 4 (26:14):
It's the same cycle because the Eagles had Frank Reich
as the offensive coordinator, Doug Peterson was the head coach.
They won the Super Bowl in twenty seventeen, and then
Reich left to take the Colts job, and Reich immediately
had success as a Colts coach. You know, Andrew Luck
was the quarterback in twenty eighteen, and the Eagles kind
of had a steady descent, and the belief in Philly
(26:36):
at time was that Reich was the real genius, and
it was in Peterson.
Speaker 3 (26:40):
Fast forward three years. Both guys are now out of the.
Speaker 4 (26:43):
League, so I guess maybe who knows, But the same
cycle happened with Sirianni and Stichen, where Steichen was seen
as the genius. When the Eagles had this unbelievable collapse
last year, it was Stiking, it was Gad and Sirianni's loss.
Speaker 3 (26:56):
He doesn't know what he's doing.
Speaker 4 (26:58):
He should be fired. Everybody wanted him fire in Philly.
Anybody who says otherwise is probably lying. And yet we
come around and Stichan's on the hot seat ish entering
this season, and Sirianni's is your bull champ. So it's
just funny how we craft these like narratives based on
a handful of games and we end up being completely
right sometimes and completely wrong another time.
Speaker 1 (27:20):
What does that say about anything we're doing?
Speaker 3 (27:22):
Yeah, that's a good point. Maybe we don't know as
much as we think we know.
Speaker 1 (27:25):
I don't know we know more than we think we know,
or we know less than we think we know, but
we definitely don't know exactly the amount that we just
we know.
Speaker 3 (27:33):
We just want to be right like fifty four percent
of the time.
Speaker 1 (27:36):
Speaking of being right fifty four percent of the time,
what was your take on the Favorites constantly covering last
year and how is that impacting some of your off
season prep work.
Speaker 4 (27:47):
I don't want to take anything into consideration from last
season in terms of overreacting to a great Favorites run.
Now that could cost me a lot of money in
the upcoming fall.
Speaker 3 (27:58):
But I just what has fundamentally changed in the league.
Speaker 4 (28:04):
You know, maybe tanking is becoming more of a thing,
so in weeks like thirteen to eighteen, you maybe reconsider
some of those ugly ugly underdogs. But even still, like
the Giants still beat the Colts this year, there were
still like, you know, games where upsets happened, the Panthers
beating the Falcons on the final final game to knock
them out of playoff contention.
Speaker 3 (28:21):
So I think sometimes these things happen.
Speaker 4 (28:25):
And I'm trying not to make bold proclamations about like
what it means about football going forward, because I don't know.
Nothing that's really happening in the league is so different
than it used to be. Like teams are going forward
on fourth down more, I guess maybe that helps favorites.
Speaker 1 (28:42):
Well help that can't be. I don't disagree with you,
like we shouldn't be overreacting. A lot of the work
I've been doing this offseason has made me think maybe
I don't want to overreact. I think Simon feels differently.
But teams going forward on fourth down, that's that's the
ball game, that's not a let's just dismiss this one
(29:05):
little fact from the equation. That is the fact, and
that is sort of the line of demarcation between I
think people who are going to account for it and
make changes in people who aren't. Anthony, you can respond, Simon,
I would like your response after that, this is our
little MW. Blacklin group.
Speaker 3 (29:23):
But how do you try to predict it?
Speaker 2 (29:24):
Though?
Speaker 4 (29:25):
Like I mean, going in the last the Commanders were
like one hundred and eight percent on fourth down last year.
I don't know if that's I don't think that's sustainable.
I think the actual number was like eighty something. Do
you say they're going to automatically be better than every
other team on fourth down because of Jayden and Daniels?
Speaker 3 (29:39):
Do you say that was a one off? I don't know.
Speaker 4 (29:43):
I think that's the big question I do think though,
if the underdogs are going to start optimizing to try
to win games instead of playing not to lose, which
you see a lot. You see, like how many times
we see team in an underdog and they're like punting
on fourth and three. You know, if they're going for
it more, does that open up opportunities for the FA
favorites to get more margin? Maybe, But again it seems
very noisy to me year to year to be like, oh, actually,
(30:05):
now favorites are gonna win at a big rate. And
I think maybe there were just more bad teams than
usual last year, like also could have been part of it, Simon.
Speaker 2 (30:15):
Yeah, And my biggest hope is why Anthony Saint is
right of the fact that people like me are overadjusting.
The sportsbooks over adjusts as well, and we get two
to three extra free points of some of these dogs. Chat.
That would be amazing obviously for us, because then of
course we'd feel more comfortable. But you know, even talking
to the guys who've been doing it for a long time,
the change of either starting at your twenty after a
(30:39):
kickoff or starting your thirty five now after a kickoff
is so massive, like it really is, especially with these
good teams where me and you talk about chat, if
you pick up one first down, you were now at
the forty five or the forty seven. Like that now
puts that team, especially with a good quarterback that you
believe in, in the driver's seat, where it is a
major difference. Where it's like we saw last year, these
(31:01):
bad quarterbacks, the coaches didn't have faith in them, so
instead of going for it on fourth and two, fourth
and three from the opponents, you know, forty eight or
their own their own side of the ball, their own
forty eight, they just didn't do it right. They always
punted where the flip side the good teams went for it.
I mean me and Chad had multiple multiple weeks of
the dogs we bet were great in the first half,
(31:23):
and then the second half their teams were punting and
the other team were going for a fourth downs And
that's simply where like even when I went through the numbers,
we lost so many games on those type of scenarios
where historically we've always been good with the dogs, like
the home dogs have been good to us. So my
biggest adjustment to it is I'm not going to react
to it. Right, I'm still gonna do what we always do, Chad,
right in week one, Week two, it's always good to
(31:44):
take the dogs, right. The public will always react and
bet from the previous season. My big adjustment will be
that middle of the season, right when me and you
are really going through it, and that's when we usually
laying to the dogs that we saw last year, that
run that I mean, Evan kept talking about every week.
It was like the doll the favorites were hitting at
over sixty five percent, then it will get to seventy percent,
and it was like, this isn't going down, this is
(32:05):
going up. And that never happens with the book. So
that's that's my biggest adjustment I'm going to make is
I'm gonna go into the year hoping to bet dogs,
but I'm not gonna be stubborn like I was last year. Like,
if there's a team like the Titans like they were
this year, Chad, the worst team of football, me and
you are gonna try out think it. We're gonna bet
against them, right, We're gonna fade that bad quarterback because
that's going to be profitable in the way the league
(32:25):
has gone. So I'm interesting, You're Anthony's viewing that where
it's like I love betting on bad quarterbacks. That's really
shifted after last season where it's like we're dead, Like
these guys don't go for an on fourth down because
they know the quarterback sucks. Why would you ever go
for it with Will Levis on fourth down? You know
you're gonna lose that battle every time. When they did,
they lost sixteen straight games against the spread, something we
never seen before. So where are you at with that?
Speaker 4 (32:47):
Anthony ben Johnson made a really interesting comment the other
day about how EPA on passes is now more predicted
than turnover margin in football. That was really interesting to
me because I think a lot of times when we
watch games, we're like, oh, yeah, like the box score
was pretty even, but that one team they had like
three fluky turnovers.
Speaker 3 (33:05):
That's not going to continue.
Speaker 4 (33:07):
We need to start looking at this, I think from
like a quarterback passing game perspective and maybe overweight you know,
quarterbacks again. And it's simple and it's square right to
be like, oh, you know, I don't want to bet
Will Levis against insert good quarterback here. But as this
continues to trend, it's going to be really really hard
for the math to make sense as offenses get more efficient,
(33:30):
and one of the things you mentioned about early season.
Early season offenses were certainly down, like the first four weeks,
even the good teams were not as efficient offensively. I
wonder if that's a knock on from preseason, you know,
the preseason being dead. Do we see unders and underdogs
do better early and then the favorites kind of like
lock in kicking the gear, sort some things out and
(33:51):
play at a higher level down the stretch seems to
be especially with the extra week now and more playoff teams,
there's more margin for air for you to be like, ah,
you know, we're two and two four weeks and we
haven't looked very good and then we figured it out and.
Speaker 2 (34:03):
Easy teams to jump out for that what you just
said are like teams that liked the Eagles last year
had new coordinators. Detroit. It's gonna be a rough in
Detroit those first couple of weeks, right, They've lost their
offensive mind and their defensive mind, and you know, it
was really interesting. Brandon Graham was just recently on a
show with Kelsey Brothers and he talked about that losing
after the Super Bowl, losing both gain and shiking, and
(34:24):
he was just talking about they had new coaches coming
and he was just like, I don't know about these dudes.
And then they got rid of them, and his next
year they had new coaches in again. Last year and
he said fans came in and Kick clearly told them
the Eagles defense. He's like, you guys are lazy and
you're losers, and just basically talked shit to them for
the first three months, and he said it sucked like
they all hated him. They said it was brutal, and
then they started doing well and winning and he started
(34:47):
being cool with them. As time went on, he said,
we just kept getting better and better. He's went along
and that's that to me, is what you're talking about here,
where it's like, you know, these guys come in the preseason,
it's it's them trying to fix bad habits, not so
much to them learning a new d defensive scheme and
stuff like that. So it is gonna interest see these
teams that have new coordinators coming in big differences. Are
we gonna have an advantage there? Chat trying to fade
(35:07):
those teams that you know people are still going to
perceive this Detroit offense being of the best office on football.
How do you not think losing you know, an offensive
genius in Ben Johnson is not gonna be a big deal.
I think it's going to be. So. I think there's
gonna be some opportunity thus early on in the season
to fade some of these teams Chad and maybe.
Speaker 4 (35:22):
By Low, you know, midseason kind of thing, because they're
still very talented in Detroita.
Speaker 1 (35:27):
You mean like buying the Atlanta Braves Low. Yes, it's
interesting what you say about Ben Johnson. I saw that
same quote about EPA, and EPA has sort of become
the favorite stat of the NFL geekarate and at some
(35:47):
point doesn't that just become overvalued, Like if everyone is
incorporating into their model, if everyone is leaning into it,
it's very hard to look at that and say, Okay,
that's my north star of metrics when I'm thinking about
a play that I'm going to.
Speaker 4 (36:05):
Make for sure, and it's also not opponent adjusted usually,
so that's another part of it, which you know DVOA,
which I think was the original Digraatti. That one was
at least opponent adjusted, but it was harder to understand
and grasp. I think than EPA is because people can
kind of understand like positive negative, and you know what
impacts certain outlier plays can have.
Speaker 3 (36:27):
I like success rate.
Speaker 4 (36:28):
I think success rate is still king for me in
terms of like predictive value because you see these teams
and yes, explosiveness matters, but you know, you see these
teams that run off a couple of handful of extreme
outlier plays every game to juice their EPA numbers or
to do certain things. You can also do EPA without turnovers,
so there's ways to maybe massage and look look a
(36:50):
little deeper than just baseline EPA because there's all kinds
of there's almost too many stats now when it comes
to evaluating these football games.
Speaker 1 (36:59):
I agree and like, I love success rate, but then
you think about success rate and it's kind of it's
naturally evened out and doesn't account for the explosiveness that
is the ultimate game changer, literally in every single game
that determines if you're going to win or lose a bet. Right,
(37:20):
none of these games go flat, right, there's there are EKGs,
and success rate is a metric that is a flat line,
whereas the explosiveness you need to be able to account
for it like.
Speaker 4 (37:36):
Right, what is trench warfare? Success rate is the trench?
You're in the trench? Chinda, Yeah, move the trench ten
yards one way and then move it back ten yards
and then somebody throws a grenade and blows up.
Speaker 1 (37:46):
And it's all over and success rate success rate can't
beat a grenade, right, It's like rock, paper scissors, grenade
greater than success rate.
Speaker 3 (37:55):
There we go.
Speaker 4 (37:57):
Maybe we need to call it the new stat That's
what we need. I'm always thinking about that.
Speaker 1 (38:00):
We need a new stat. I think I might figure
one out. I think I'm getting it.
Speaker 3 (38:04):
Might have to be, might have to be.
Speaker 4 (38:05):
I feel like the luck rankings are somewhat of that nature,
like which laves more actually have been expected score.
Speaker 1 (38:10):
The luck rankings are brilliant and and you're absolutely right,
and shame on us for not mentioning that sooner, because
they are sort of a revolutionary stat that Nick Giffen
and Sean Kerner and Billy Warden and have sort of
worked on and thought a lot about it, and it's
obviously a really important part of what Simon and I
do during the season. We we love it, but now
(38:35):
we've talked about it too much. Other people might be
using it too.
Speaker 3 (38:38):
And nothing.
Speaker 4 (38:39):
Nothing stays. Nothing that's any good stays stays hidden forever.
Speaker 1 (38:43):
Nothing.
Speaker 4 (38:43):
Two or three years ago, used to go on Payoff
Pitch with Zarillo. We used to talk about Stuff Plus
how much we loved it. We had the charts and
we were discussing it. And now all I do on
baseball Twitter, everybody's talking about Stuff Plus and I'm like, uh,
it might be might be solved. People might know too
much about it now, might have to zag and go
the other way.
Speaker 1 (39:00):
Hey, you just came off a great run in college
basketball betting first to ten. I think yes, you could
follow that in the award winning Action Network app where
you're posting your picks explain yourself.
Speaker 4 (39:14):
So you know, you watch certain college basketball teams, you
start to notice patterns. And I it was a tournament
of the Favorite, right, so everybody was like, oh, I
got this dog plus eight and a half, and they
might be tied for a bit, but then they just
the favorite goes on a twenty zero run and you're
drawing dead by the under twelve in the second half.
And so Saint John's was playing Arkansas, and this was
(39:34):
the Friday night before and I was talking with John
Destremsky on our pod and we were talking about, hey,
like we I liked Arkansas a little bit, but I thaid,
I think they can hit him early. Saint John's have
been slow starters all year, which let's do Arkansas race
at ten. Like people have been having fun with these bets,
you like to take the underdog. Arkansas came out red hot.
I think it was like ten to two. I'm like,
this was easy. I should do this more often. So
(39:57):
it started with fading Saint John's and Michigan State, who
were two with these like overrated teams that started slow
every game, and we went to and oh and then
I was like, all right, well, now that I'm having
fun with this, let's do one per day for the
rest of the tournament.
Speaker 3 (40:09):
So we went out against.
Speaker 4 (40:10):
Alabama and BYU got run out of the gym, but
not in the first ten points. They didn't, so we
were three and oh and then I'm like, okay, we
get the fate of Michigan State again.
Speaker 3 (40:17):
We had all miss and then Texas Tech.
Speaker 4 (40:19):
So we kept betting all these underdogs and they kept
losing the game, but they kept winning the race to ten.
So it was really fun, and it ultimately culminated in
an eight and oh run, which came down to just
two incredible finishes.
Speaker 3 (40:33):
The last two.
Speaker 4 (40:33):
Games, Auburn was eight eight against Florida and they fouled
Jani Broom, who's a sixty percent free throw shooter, and
I'm running through the scenario. I'm like, all right, so
he's gonna make one of two. Florida's gonna come down,
They're gonna make a basket.
Speaker 3 (40:46):
I'm gonna lose. He nails both free throws. We're good.
Speaker 4 (40:49):
And then in the National Championship, like the mania had
gotten so crazy, I had two friends text me. They're like,
I've never placed a sports bet in my life, but
I'm on Houston with you. Race to ten ten dollars bet,
Like one guy had ten dollars, one guy had twenty dollars.
They're down eight six, they get a basket, Walter Clayton
makes the worst pass you've ever seen.
Speaker 3 (41:08):
They turn it over.
Speaker 4 (41:09):
But now it's the media timeout, so I'm like shaking
during the media timeout, being like, oh my gosh, we
got to wait four minutes for this game to come back.
But I'm thinking Houston's going to have a good play
coming out of this time out. They run a beautiful
slip screen dunk posterization.
Speaker 3 (41:25):
Me and my buddies are at softball.
Speaker 4 (41:26):
We're losing our minds celebrating because I had the whole
team on the bet and we finished the eight and
oh run and I'll bring it back next March.
Speaker 1 (41:34):
That is the ultimate to phileas scum bag degenerate run
right there.
Speaker 4 (41:38):
Well, because we're all going crazy and people are looking
at us, like from the other team, they're like, what's
going on? Like why are these guys yelling about the
basketball game?
Speaker 3 (41:46):
It just started. We're like, well, they got to ten first.
Speaker 4 (41:50):
They lost the game too, by the way, So eight
and zero on the run the teams who got to
ten first, two and six when it comes to winning
the game.
Speaker 1 (41:57):
Before we let you go, we can't let you go
without noting that the Philadelphia seventy six ers are thirty
two games below five hundred, so, you know, decent chance
they get their top five protected pick. Decent chance, thirty
five percent chance they don't have any pick because they
have to give it to OKC, one of the best
(42:18):
teams in the league if it's below top five Cleveland
OKC number one number one in Eastern and Western Conference?
Do you have any thoughts on your NBA Finals winner?
Speaker 4 (42:36):
So I don't know how it's not Cleveland or Boston
from the East based on some very very baseline level
analysis that I've done and listen to some of my
colleagues who follow it more closely than I do. But
in the West, I think it could be more interesting.
I mean, okay, see, is historic really good And I
think maybe we'll all look back and be like, yeah, idiots,
(42:56):
it was always going to be okay, see, look at
how good they are. But I think that's the difference
where there could be more parody, more intrigue, you.
Speaker 3 (43:04):
Know, if you want to get really crazy.
Speaker 4 (43:06):
I was joking around like if the Clippers stay healthy
and if James Harden, you know, we're asking for something
that usually doesn't happen.
Speaker 3 (43:12):
But if they do it, I think they have a
pretty high ceiling.
Speaker 4 (43:14):
They're like thirty thirty to one, thirty five to one
to win the finals, in like fifteen to one, sixteen
to one to win the West, so they would probably
be the team right now. I think if you're looking
to get in because the Warriors, the Lakers, like people
have caught onto them, the Thunder or the Thunder.
Speaker 3 (43:27):
Who's the next team.
Speaker 4 (43:28):
It's probably the Clippers, but I kind of think, like
every other sport these days, it's probably just going to
be chocky with Oka see versus either Boston or Cleveland.
Speaker 3 (43:37):
Probably Boston.
Speaker 1 (43:39):
There's some stat I can't remember, but similar to the
NFL where the teams that have the shortest odds to
start the season, like twelve to oh, twelve, twelve to
one or less, that matchup usually plays out and one
of those teams wins the Super Bowl. I can't remember
how long it's been to it's a team that was
(44:02):
outside the top four or five and shortest.
Speaker 2 (44:04):
Odds to believe with Dallas Mavericks to win. Yeah, I
think Evan had some crazy stat like that was it?
Speaker 1 (44:11):
What you mean, the Dirk Mavericks.
Speaker 2 (44:13):
The Dirk Mavericks, right, the longish odds in recent and
recent Yeah, that could be a yeah, I feel of
Golden State first first time Golden State, right, Sorry, Yeah,
that was like everyone knew was coming, but no one
really knew. I think they were greater than what you
had saying it's ten to one.
Speaker 1 (44:31):
It's been a long time.
Speaker 4 (44:32):
Yeah, all right, you usually takes something crazy to happen, Like,
you know, the Raptors got their win, but then that
was when like the whole Warriors team ended up hurt
by the end of the finals, or you know, you
look at like even that whole run, like Kd's toe
is on the line or whatever. So yeah, over the years,
it's been been pretty schocky. It looks that way now.
(44:52):
I mean we've had teams get to the finals. The
Heat have gotten to the finals. I think that people
are shocked by that. But I think it's pretty shocking
that to actually win it is a different story. Like
even the MAVs last year came out of nowhere, but
they didn't win it, right, they got close.
Speaker 2 (45:06):
We got to end on a football there, Chad. So also,
if forgot to mention the top of the show, gotta
download the Masters app if you're gambling on the Masters.
The Masters App is the greatest thing ever invented for gamblers,
So please download it. But Anthony, you're a Colts fan.
You guys got to pick fourteen? Who the fuck do
you want? If you take Sanders? Are you gonna kill yourself?
(45:29):
What's gonna happen to pick fourteen?
Speaker 3 (45:30):
Years because I'll be very upset if we take Sanders.
I think I would be pretty shocked if we took Sanders.
Speaker 2 (45:37):
Me too.
Speaker 3 (45:37):
But you know, I think the tight ends are the
two tight ends. Tyler Warren.
Speaker 2 (45:44):
There's no way Tyler Warren drops you. Chad's getting Tyler Warren.
Speaker 4 (45:48):
Yeah, So I think a lot of people are understanding
that we're probably not going to get him, but Loveland's
the next guy. Yeah, Well we are one pick ahead
of the Chargers, who a lot of people think Jimmy's
gonna want Loveland.
Speaker 3 (45:58):
So I think that we're kind of in that.
Speaker 4 (46:02):
Mix for for Loveland and and that'll be where we
end up.
Speaker 2 (46:06):
But any of the receivers do you like or you don't?
Speaker 4 (46:07):
You' He drafted a lot of receivers and they don't
usually take the first round. Just he'd like to take
second and third round receivers. Yeah, because Pittman was second round,
Mitchell was second round, Pierce was second round. So they've
liked the kind of that tier of receiver and you
could argue maybe they should take a bigger shot. But
I think, you know, tight end has been a black
hole for the Colts for really since, like Eric Ebron
(46:28):
and and.
Speaker 3 (46:29):
Uh and Derek Allen and Dwayne Allen.
Speaker 1 (46:32):
Way back in the day, Ken from Illinois, Dallas Clark,
Dallas Clark. He was pretty good.
Speaker 4 (46:39):
But so they've had issues. They drafted, you know, some
mid round guys that haven't quite panned out. I think
it's something that they want to solidify. So I think
tight end will be in the mix. If not, just
always assume that Ballard will take some freaky eight defensive
end athlete who's ends up being just average.
Speaker 2 (46:56):
I would yeah, okay, I'll bet that.
Speaker 1 (46:59):
Before Anthony was I did a story for Sports Illustrated
about Ken Dilger the Indianapolis Colts tight End. As a reminder,
the Favorite podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five
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(47:20):
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or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms condition
and restrictions apply. Thank you Anthony Debundo from the Ringer
for joining our show. Continue to do amazing work over there,
Simon and I will return with our next episode of
the Favorites on the Action Never're You two page Tuesday,
one thirty pm Eastern, talking NFL Draft with another former
(48:03):
Action Network colleague, Matthew Friedman. Download some Spotify, have ale
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fight Stars say whatever you want, feedback gauys give until
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