January 7, 2025 • 56 mins
The NFL Playoffs have finally arrived! Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return to preview every matchup, with games spread across Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Can the Steelers rebound in yet another battle with Baltimore? Are Saturday afternoon Wild Card regulars the Houston Texans destined for failure? And is an Eagles vs Packers game the best matchup of the weekend?
And for bet365 users on mobile devices looking to instantly tail Chad's bet on the Chargers, just click this link: https://bit.ly/ExecDecisionLAC
And for bet365 users on mobile devices looking to instantly tail Simon's bet on the Steelers, just click this link: https://bit.ly/SimonSaysPIT
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast, presented by BET
three six five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today is
our Tuesday NFL wild Card Weekend episode. We're going to
break down the opening weekend of the NFL Playoffs. We
will discuss our exec decision and our Simon says and
(00:33):
do not fret. On Thursday, we will have the usual menu,
foxhol big balls, all that good stuff. The number of
games slims down, but our enthusiasm for the playoffs has
never been bigger. Live from our Tommy John Holmes Studios.
I'm joined as always by my bff, my cost my companion,
(00:54):
Mike combiede Er Professional Better, Simon Hunter l Simon.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
Hello, Chat. I feel bad I'll saying I hadn't ask
you about who the hell you want to be the
new Bear's new head coach.
Speaker 1 (01:05):
Well, I've got so many good choices now between potentially
Mike McCarthy or Thomas Brown or Ben Johnson, who, if
he's smart, is going to run as fast as he
can from this glorious opportunity. This morning I woke up
and I'm like, I love Mike McCarthy. I think he'd
be great. Like, my expectations are so low right now
(01:30):
for who will be the head coach? What this organization
can pull in based on its history, based on its
executive structure, based on how much it might be willing
to pay versus other teams, Like can we get Mike
dickaback like Mike dick a circa nineteen eighty three, who
(01:53):
is essentially Dan Campbell?
Speaker 2 (01:56):
True?
Speaker 1 (01:57):
I don't know. Is there a Dan Campbell motivator out
there who can overcome literally generations of ineptitude and ownership
that is legacy focused and driven and has not been
able to transform into a modern organization. Give me that guy.
Speaker 2 (02:18):
I'll say. I've learned as an Eagles fan that you
don't want the guy you want, you usually don't want
to get, right. I remember I wanted Ben Nacadoo and
the Eagles, and we got Doug Peterson, some nobody QB
coach from Kansas City War still wore visors and I
was like, oh my god, this guy is not filly
at all. Probably my only ring so shows how stupid
(02:39):
Ust fans can be. So yeah, I just want to
get your level of it because I'm I'm reading, I'm
with you, I'm reading the news and everything like that,
and it's like, man, this is gonna be really interesting
to see who ends up with the Bears because you
do have, you know, the top talent at quarterback position,
and there's a lot to work with it with his team.
So it's to me, it's fun like when you're trying
to figure out the future when you're a team like
you have, it's it's exciting to because either going to
(03:01):
absolutely love it or you were going to hate whoever
they bring.
Speaker 1 (03:04):
In, doesn't matter. It's not going to end well and
it'll be the wrong person. It's so funny that you
mentioned Doug Peterson because I wrote a little soliloquy about
Doug into the script today because he means a lot
to both of us and he's an integral part of
both of our lives. You just mentioned he led your
(03:25):
favorite team to its only super Bowl win in twenty eighteen,
which happened to be played a little Action Network history here.
Weeks after we launched Action and we did a massive
radio and TV blitz, like in the two weeks before
the Super Bowl to get Action all over local radio,
(03:47):
doing these radio two tours, thirty forty fifty spots, whatever,
and we were all over you know, the airwaves, predicting
that the Eagles would cover as underdogs in that game
against the Pats. Obviously they did more than that, and
it kicked off a beautiful beginning to our business. As
(04:10):
you know, I just said it, like I almost feel
like Doug Peterson is a little bit of the precursor
to Dan Campbell because the most famous play from that game,
of course, is Philly Special, Philly, Philly. They go forward
on fourth and one at the end of the first half.
It turns from a fifteen to twelve leave into a
(04:31):
twenty two to twelve lead. They scored a touchdown on
the play. It was that you know, option to Nick Foles,
who was who caught the ball in the end zone.
But here's the real reason why, Well do you agree
with me? By the way, like I think he was
at the leading edge of going forward and fourth down.
He was more aggressive as the Eagles coach than any
(04:54):
other coach in the NFL was at the time, and
it sort of gave birth to what a life lot
of coaches do today, especially Dan Campbell.
Speaker 2 (05:02):
Shockingly, I can't be I'm gonna do it because he
was not this way at the end of his career.
But Riverboat Ron Ron Rivera that team, that run, he
was the most go for Cam Newton fourth and two,
fourth and three, ultimate trust in his quarterback. So I'll
give him the crib, But I think Doug definitely was
the guy that was the first to have a ton
of success with it, right, like that that run, you
(05:25):
know that was all about it, right He even that
Super Bowl He had those big, big moments like that,
like you just talked to the Philly specials on a
fourth and one, like, you know he misses that play.
Talk about an idiot, right if like you're going for
in that in that position. So yeah, Doug. Doug Peterson
definitely at the top of that list.
Speaker 1 (05:43):
We also love him because his team's covered this season.
This Like we talked about this when he came back, like.
Speaker 2 (05:49):
We was good to us as a dog.
Speaker 1 (05:50):
I loved betting Doug Peterson when he came back to
the Jags. Uh. He finished his career over five hundred
over fifty three as an underdog, so he was covering
and making us money this season. This is a great
stat I looked this up on Action network you can
see against the spread records. This season, the Jags were
ten and seven against the spread, tied with four other
(06:11):
teams for eleventh best. However, they were only They were
the only team of the top thirteen teams to finish
with double digit losses and only one of three teams
to not make the playoffs. The others were the nine
win Bengals and the eight win Cardinals. Late in the year,
he provided one of the few bright spots we had
(06:34):
this season. We just had a beat on Doug Peterson
and Mac Jones and his team. So let's give it
up for Doug. Ep Thank you Doug, Thank you Doug.
As a reminder of the Favorites podcast is presented by
Bet three sixty five and now new Bet three six five.
Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets
when you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites,
(06:56):
deposit ten dollars, place a bet for five dollars to
get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those
bonus bets can be used on spread totals, player props, futures,
and more. Whatever the moment it's never ordinary at bet
three sixty five. Must be twenty one or older in Presidenton, Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
(07:19):
older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions
restrictions apply right One last quick announcement before it gets
to a wildcard weekend. Our favorite one hundred thousand dollars
Pro Football Pick Them contest has crowned its winners. Paperwork
is being filled out, piles of cash or being dolled out.
(07:42):
On Thursday morning, Simon and I expect to be chatting
with are extremely excited forty thousand dollars first place winner.
I look forward to sharing that with listeners. The dude
was on fire all season long. We're gonna try to
convince to put all of it on Wildcard weekend with
(08:03):
us A very quick congrats two week eighteen winner, Promo
Master went five and zero within one yard of the tiebreaker.
Promo Master takes home the final weekly one thousand dollars prize. Simon,
we love the playoffs we're starting a new it's a
challenging regular season. I feel locked in. I feel good
(08:25):
about where we're headed. I feel like I have clarity.
Are you ready to roll with your brother?
Speaker 2 (08:31):
I am. I just want to pick it back off
what you just said though, how much we do love
our fans and you know me chat, we don't know
the future with what our contest says next or anything
like that, but to have two seasons in a row
giving away over one hundred k cash, it's pretty cool,
man Like, it's it's so rich getting in this unique
position to do it. And thank you to all the
fans that played in the contest and obviously the fans
(08:52):
that came to our live show the past two years
and just talked about the contest and how much fun
it is. And you know a couple of people I've
met like that thousand dollars, right, that's huge that week, Right,
it goes towards your rent or maybe in a vacation
you're you're planning with a special friends. So yeah, I'm
happy it's over for us personally, but I'm sad it's
over for the fans and end the season just because
(09:13):
it is so much fun. Just giving away free money every.
Speaker 1 (09:15):
Week Simon another great example of how you feel more deeply.
N are a significantly kinder person than I am.
Speaker 2 (09:26):
If you catch me at the right moment.
Speaker 1 (09:27):
Yeah, well it's early in the week. Right.
Speaker 2 (09:30):
There you go.
Speaker 1 (09:31):
The Los Angeles Chargers first playoff game, Saturday afternoon, visiting
the Houston Texans.
Speaker 2 (09:37):
Don't gamble, don't associate with gamblers. Avoid it like the plague.
Speaker 1 (09:44):
This game has been bouncing around three two and a half,
three two and a half. I did bet at at
two and a half. I bet the Chargers. It's at
three at bet three six five. There's one or two
books where you can get two and a half. We
like the Chargers on Sunday night. Nothing has changed mind,
thirty six hours of research since the game's locked on
(10:05):
Sunday night, digging in yesterday, so many thoughts on this.
But before I dig in, sort of from my point
of view, has anything changed for you since we first
started talking about it on Sunday?
Speaker 3 (10:18):
No.
Speaker 2 (10:18):
I think our gut instinct of taking the minus two
and a half for the Chargers or take the minus
three was right. We both thought that this would go up.
The most shocking part is it did touch three and
a half for a second, and then some really smart
money clearly came in. A couple of those books moved
all the way two and a half. That's how much
they respect the money they did come in on Houston.
So it's it's gonna be an interesting game because I'm
(10:39):
not really seeing it from the Houston side. And like,
my perspective is, Okay, Houston's defense is better than people
give them credit for. Right, they have outperformed in a
lot of ways this season, but we've seen like Herbert
and this team against good defenses had played really well,
Like anytime they faced a good defense, they played sound football.
And especially Herbert, I mean, you know, obviously it's NonStop
(11:01):
us giving him flowers, but he deserves it this season,
Like the him being smarter with the ball is the
key to the success of this team this season. And
I don't know if you only had four turnovers or
five interceptions, whatever it was, it's it's incredibly low for
someone like him that loves to push the ball downfield.
So looking at this matchup on paper, it's like, Okay,
we already love the Chargers matchup wise, like their defense
(11:23):
going against this really bad I don't say really bad
because they've had so many injuries to their offense in Houston,
but they are struggled, strug Yeah, struggling. And you know
the fact that we also have a short week here,
like that's not being talked enough to me, is that
this is a short week and it is a spot
where hardball, you know, he's three and oh straight up
(11:44):
and against the spread this season as on a short week.
On the flip side, we've seen Houston, they've struggled on
short weeks, right, They've not been the same team on
short weeks with less preparation. And the only hesitation for
me is that this will be the Chargers third strade
road game, Like that's not a great spot. They are
a road favorite in this spot, which is.
Speaker 1 (12:04):
Stort straight as a road favorite, right.
Speaker 2 (12:06):
So, like there's a lot of trends at point to
back in Houston, which is to me why smart money
here is coming in on Houston where it's like mathematically yes,
like Houston probably is the right side long term. But
me and chat always talk about there is that thirty
percent that's what we're betting on here. We're betting on
the other side of that where it's like this to
me is the right spot, the right side, and this
(12:28):
is the perfect team matchup wise against this this team
in Houston, Like, I just think that they could have
caught some other teams and maybe you could see a
way for Houston to win or cover. I'm just not
finding one in your chat, so, like it's shocking how
much I am supporting you here because this does feel
insanely chalky to me, like very very public. But to me,
the number is right, the value is on the number,
(12:48):
and I'm just I just think this should be three
and a half. We're getting three minus two and a half.
I'll take that value every time.
Speaker 1 (12:54):
Smart money may be coming on Houston, but this is
the executive decision.
Speaker 2 (13:01):
The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible. Are you
have your honors text acute number executive decision.
Speaker 1 (13:09):
It's partially the exact decision because a lot of the
other numbers have moved just much more aggressively from when
we first started talking about these. So I still like
the two and a half three for the Chargers. But
everything you said I can back up with even more
detail and more data. We have avoided betting the Texans,
(13:32):
right like CJ has not played well. He has not
played well because of constant injuries to his receiving corps.
The offensive line has truly been terrible. They cannot get
off the line of scrimmage and win one on one
matchups right now. Defenses have played him differently this year.
(13:54):
The last eight games of the year, they ranked twenty
eighth in EPA per play. You know, that's behind Chicago Bears,
Indianapolis Colts, Las Vegas Raiders, and Tennessee Titans. Meanwhile, why
(14:15):
have we loved the Chargers? You just mentioned it. They
do not turn the ball over only nine all season,
second fewest behind Buffalo. And I'm gonna keep saying it.
I feel like this year and we'll get We're gonna
do like a big sort of study over the offseason
on the impact of getting the ball to thirty and
(14:39):
then being able to be within field goal range within
a play or two. How that impacts coaching decisions, clock management,
fourth down decisions when you are deciding to go for
the extra four points, if you're on the other side
of the field and you know you have a field
goal in your pocket, Archers just don't make egregiously bad
(15:02):
coaching decisions. And that's been an imperative this year when
it comes to clock management, when it comes to going
forward and fourth down. So you and I are aligned.
I like the coaching matchup, not saying I don't like
Dmiko Ryans, but I just love Harbaugh and I like
what Herbert can do. I don't like how CJ. Stroud
has played. I think this will be the last game
(15:23):
to a tough year in which everything that the Texans
had had a hard time overcoming will come to fruition
in this game. They aren't going to all of a
sudden be great. They don't have the personnel that they
thought they were going to have.
Speaker 2 (15:36):
And the basically the basics is that when you're going
through all these playoff games, you really have to believe
in the quarterback right when you're playing these numbers, because
that's that's what it all comes down to, and it's
the legacy play off. You know, we both remember obviously
what happened last time Herbert was in the playoffs. That
was an historical meltdown. But when you go back and
(15:57):
you think about it, it's like, if you had the
right coaching, that just wouldn't have happened against that Jaguars team.
His first time around the playoffs, So I'm not taking
too much away from it. I am taken away from
it that he came out in the playoffs this first
time around. He lit it up offensively. He was moving
the ball downfield. So I think Herbert is ready for
this moment. And I mean it's all sudden up chat
they if they if they steal this game here and
(16:17):
they do go to play Kansas City. We've seen how
tough they played Kansas City or can they be the kryptonite?
So it is lined up perfectly. And you know, as
someone that has money invested in the Chiefs, yes, it
would be very nice for me if Houston would win
this game because that would be an absolute lay up
for this Chiefs team. So yeah, it's it's lined up
for this Chargers team to make a run with Harball.
Speaker 1 (16:37):
My takeaway from that Jaguars Chargers playoff game, Doug ep
can bring you back and we need some money because
we were on the Jags in that game. I don't
know if you remember it. I remember that was a
stressful game right there.
Speaker 2 (16:50):
I think you were in New York. We were watching
with everyone and I was like we were at a
party with all of our coworkers, and I was like,
I got to get out of here at halftime. I
just couldn't couldn't do it anymore. And yeah, that was
as a legendary comeback.
Speaker 1 (17:02):
If you're interested in tailing my executive decision on the Chargers,
here's what you should do. Go to the app. Use
BET's bet three six five's quick slip link. You can
see it in this episode description. You're just going to
click on it. It's going to take you right to
(17:22):
the bet that you want. It's going to open up
a slip you can just put in how much you
want to bet you're on the Chargers. I used quick
slip this morning when I was baking a bet on
this next game. It is one click from your mobile device.
The Chargers bet slip will just pop up in your
bet three six y five app. You'll be ready to bet.
(17:43):
It is automagical Pittsburgh out Baltimore. It's the second game
on Saturday.
Speaker 2 (17:52):
It's Baltimore. Gentlemen, the Gods will not save you.
Speaker 1 (17:56):
Baltimore is a ten point favorite. This one's going for
a ride. Brother. It'll at eight and a half on
Sunday night. It's only gone up it seems like the
ceiling is ten. When it hit ten, there was by back.
It came down to nine and a half, then it
went back back up to ten, and it's kind of
just been sitting there, which is a little surprising to me,
and that it hasn't come back down. I don't know
(18:18):
why this happened. Okay, I'm gonna tell you a story.
I woke up this morning at like four o'clock and
I had to pee. I tossed and turned for like
two hours trying to go back to bed, and I
couldn't This happens every single night, by the way, it's
freaking brutal. At around six fifteen, it's still pitch blackout
(18:39):
and this pops into my head. I don't know why.
Isn't it crazy that the Steelers are ten point underdogs.
It's like, isn't this the ultimate overreaction? I rolled over,
opened up the action app. I used quick slip, by
the way, and I bet the Steelers a plus ten.
I wonder what Mike Tomlin is going to say about that.
Speaker 2 (19:00):
That's a bad moment right here for your youngsters. Let's live.
It's not the shocking though, because we basically broke it
down to the net. We knew this was gonna be
one of the heavier teased moneyline parlay teams, Like the
books basically are just protecting against that chat. That's what
to me the movement's based off, because I told you
they know they're gonna get Pittsburgh professional money, Like it's
(19:21):
just a fact that it's going to come in the
amount of money though from Joe public right now just
shows how heavy it is on the moneyline parlays and
everything like that with this Ravens team, which to me
makes sense. This is a Pittsburgh team that they're on
what a four game losing streak. I think Evan put
in his article they haven't scored more than seventeen points
in those games, Like Russ has just fallen off an
(19:41):
absolute cliff. To this point, me and you are simply
betting on this basically this matchup because we have historically
always just taken the dog and we've just been making
crazy money doing it, and the fact that these are
divisional rivals and that these games are always just weird. Now,
the first time they played, I believe was eighteen sixteen
(20:01):
win by this Pittsburgh team. Second time they played, I
believe that I got blown out thirty four to seventeen
four seventeen, But when you go back and you look,
it's like there were basically in that game until Joey
Porter Junior went out. Once he went out, Lamar just
totally took advantage of that. Now his back, JJ Watt
put up a legit, I think his first his career
(20:23):
at last week.
Speaker 1 (20:24):
TJ Watt, Yeah, JJ, every single same.
Speaker 2 (20:27):
You know why, It's because I've been I've been watching
a lot of JJ Watt stuff because he owns my
soccer club, Burnley. So I've just been locked in on
JJ Watt. I know it's brutal, I keep doing it.
But TJ basically had his first, I feel like of
his career shutout last week against Cincinnati, Like literally didn't
have a tackle, didn't have a sack at zero pressures
was He even said it was one of the worst
(20:48):
games he's ever played. Okay, so we have Joey Porter
Junior back for this defense, we have an insanely motivated
TJ Watt defensively, and they might be without their number
one were and Zay Flowers, which to me, that's an underline,
like that's a very very something that's not being talked
about enough right now. That's a huge deal for this
team losing him coming in because he is the deep threat,
(21:11):
like he's the reason they have to keep a safety
back and that Derek Henrick can have these type of runs.
Same with Lamar. But now that he's out, why would
they not come down and stack the box. So yeah,
we like we didn't dive into the trends. I kind
of want to save that for Evan Thursday, but I
love it like this. I can't help it. When it
went to ten, I remember thinking to myself, oh my god,
(21:31):
I am either just the sucker right now, just like
last week with that Chief's number, or this is like
you just said, this is an insane amount of disrespecting
movement against this Pittsburgh team and we are getting I mean,
what feels like two to three free points to work
with here, like something that's very unique to playoff football
where books have to protect against these big favorites. So
(21:52):
we know the data right ten point favorites, they're seventeen
and one straight up. That one loss was Lamar against
that Tennessee team twenty twenty, I believe. So there's just
there's a lot, like I know we we I get crown.
I don't know if Chad does is lamar hater. It's
just in the playoffs, Like, what do you guys want
me to do? We have the data, Like last year
we talked about that was the perfect team for him,
(22:14):
and he couldn't do anything against that Chiefs team. So
we've seen him struggle against good defenses in the playoffs.
I think this Pittsburgh team, I know they haven't shown
up late, but I still think they are an elite defense.
And this is a nice spot to back this Pittsburgh team.
So yeah, Simon says, give me Pittsburgh plus ten. Chad.
Speaker 1 (22:30):
When Simon says do it, we do what Sence, I
bet it too. I put it in the app it
said plus ten. I couldn't decide when I was ultimately
betting it. Is this a high confidence bet that we're
making or is it a we're backing the trends and
we're backing the overreaction at the ten, I don't know
(22:53):
that we have a team that is in a winnable game.
I think we're just getting to your point, a team
that has lost four games in a row. You mentioned
that the seventeen points. They haven't scored more than seventeen
points in a game since beating the Browns twenty seven
to fourteen on December eighth, right, you know, while the
(23:16):
Ravens they haven't scored fewer than thirty one points or
even lost since December first. So the reason this number
is so big right now, And I agree, let's save
some of the massive trends that back the Steelers for
Thursday show. But if you've listened to this show all
(23:38):
season long, you know that, like this matchup between Harbaugh
and Tomlin favors the underdogs, and Mike Tomlin specifically, he
has historically dominated as the underdog in this matchup. So
like this is such a disparity in public perception more
(24:01):
than anything. That's why this number is so big. And
you're alluding to it with the sort of the teaser
protection and all that kind of stuff.
Speaker 2 (24:06):
And I've been someone that has just faded Pittsburgh in
the playoffs these last couple of years just because it's
been like a Duck Hodges or Kenny Pickett. It's never
been a quarterback I can believe, and I'm not saying
I'm not saying I believe in Russell Wilson. He's the guy.
This is this is the type of moment, This is
the reason they brought him in. This is a veteran
quarterback in the playoffs who's had playoffs success. You expect
(24:27):
him to step up in this big moment. But to me,
you're you're saying, what's your confidence level? It's it's as
high as it could be on a team that's lost
four straight. It's it really is all about their matchup.
Like if they're playing a legit good team like say
the Bills, it'd be different. This isn't that would be
outside their division. This is just the two teams are
familiar with each other where like we said, it's it
(24:48):
always leans towards the dogs when these two teams play.
And then it gets magnified the fact that Lamar has
one team that he really struggles with in his career.
It's Pittsburgh. Like that. We talk all the time about that.
It's a huge deal. So so there's your certain teams
that match up all against you, that have your number,
and I just believe in this Pittsburgh team. So yeah,
I'm obviously confident, and it's really all about the number.
Like this, this reaching plus ten. I mean again, like
(25:11):
I said, I just can't help myself. That's way too
many points and it just feels like it's an easy
one that's going to come down to a field goal,
and we're getting a ton of value on this Pittsburgh team.
Speaker 1 (25:20):
So in that game on the twenty first, there's a
couple games in the playoffs that are rematches from earlier
in the season, the vikings in the Rams as well,
and I think that bears looking at because in that
game on the twenty first, it was I think seventeen seventeen, right,
(25:42):
it was close through it was close through three quarters,
and then the Ravens went ahead in the last ninety
seconds of the third quarter. And that's around when Joey Porter,
you know, he tried to play in the second half.
He couldn't, right, Russell Wilson threw a pick six. Would
have felt like after that this team needed to be
perfect and they couldn't. Yeah, And also George Pickens did
(26:07):
not play in that game. And I know, like he
was shitty last week against the Bengals. I don't expect
him to be shitty every week, and I that was
like his first game back after several weeks out. You
gotta expect him to have some kind of impact here too.
Speaker 2 (26:21):
Yeah. Again, we get all the doubt on Pittsburgh. We
understand why money is coming in so heavy and Joe
Public is backing this Ravens team. It's just, you know,
this is the type of swat we played, Chad, and
you know, I always bet. I would say I bet
playoffs a little differently. If this was a regular season
obviously we would be on this Pittsburgh side. But no,
(26:42):
it's just I just love this number so much for
this Pittsburgh team.
Speaker 1 (26:46):
One other thing I'll add before we get on to
the next game is the Ravens are snake pick when
it comes to procedure penalties, holding penalties, pre snap penalties,
those things up when you're a ten point underdog. You know.
That's like we saw it over the weekend. Like the
Ravens weren't covered in that game until the very last
(27:09):
series when Derrick Henry you know, busted it open for
a long touchdown run. But they bite themselves in the
ass with really bad penalties that start them off behind
the chains or kill drives or bring back big plays.
So that could be something that comes into play if
you're interested in tailing this, Simon says, pick on the Steelers.
Check out the special bet three six ' five quick
(27:32):
slip link in this episode description. Just one click from
your mobile device and a Steelers bet slip pops up
and your bet three six y five app ready to bet.
Check it out. I love it. It's the best technology.
Really is Denver at Buffalo Sunday game Bufflow is eight
and a half point favorite.
Speaker 3 (27:51):
Good afternoon, everyone. This is Van Miller and the road
to the super Bowl goes through Orchard Park, New York,
and it is the Bills looking to trade the on
the snow much through New York for a trip.
Speaker 1 (28:03):
To the super Bowl. We discussed it eight and a half.
We discussed life liking Buffalo. Mostly it was just the
first instinct. Matt Mitchell came on and said he does
not worry about the Buffalo Bills in the Wildcard. I
don't worry about it either. I've bet the Bills at
eight and.
Speaker 2 (28:16):
A half, did you I've I'm on the other side.
I know I've come around to them.
Speaker 1 (28:24):
I have.
Speaker 2 (28:24):
And it's really it really is about Teum Payton facing
this defense of Buffalo. I just I can't get on
my head how many points this is, and that historically
he has done well, and it's like, maybe maybe I
am thinking too much, read too much into the trends
here with this one. But I'm just going through the
matchup and it's like Josh Allen's going to get his
(28:46):
He's gonna put up points, and it's like, Okay, now
I'm banking on bone Nicks to drive the field multiple times,
to get me multiple backdoor touchdowns or whatever it's going
to be, because we already know the dealer, right, this
is going to be a January game in Buffalo. It's
going to be freezing cold. It's this kid's first playoff start. Historically,
fade fade fade guys making their first starts, And I
(29:06):
did really want to be on Buffalo. This is a
team where you know, I will throw them in teasers.
I'm just gonna avoid the spread if I need be,
because I'm just a little weary of this number being
so big. Smart guys I've talked to at this point
are just like, no, you have to take Denver, like
this is the exact spot, said Sean Payton, and Evan
wrote in his article it kind of backs it up right,
Sean Payton. He's on the press of Picton doing some
(29:27):
historical here. If he wins and covers this or if
he covers this game, I believe it. Evan, he'll be
five and oh is a road dog in the playoffs,
which is rare air. So you know, obviously the other
times he did that, it was with Drew Brees, a
Hall of Fame quarterback, but it's still it was Drew
Brees as a dog in the playoffs, and Sean Payne
had him preparing up to that moment. I think the
(29:48):
same thing here where it's like, isn't this too many
points for a Bill's defense that we've seen since Week
nine have struggled like they're one of the bottom teams,
and they kind of got away with it at the
end there, right because they had a Patriot, then they
had the Jets, and then the Patriots again, Like not yeah,
they didn't play anyone in the final week, but it's
like there was a reason they had kind of struggled
this season against winning teams. And I can't get over
(30:10):
at bo Nicks, man, it was historical. I think he
was twelve and five against the spread this season, one
of the best rookie seasons, We've seen him, and I
believe Joe Flacco in two thousand and eight had the
second best or maybe the best rookie season against the spread.
So he plays up to the potential line sets by
the book makers. And in no world do I see
the Bills losing this. Like I said, happy to take
this down to two and a half, but covering this
(30:32):
number with that bad defense, I think it's going to
be a little more challenging than I perceived on Sunday night.
I make this number seven and a half. It's eight
and a half. I'll take the value on this Denver team,
but it's you can hear in my voice, not too
much confidence. Chet. I have heard so much about Buffalo.
I can hardly wait to get there.
Speaker 1 (30:53):
I'm so surprised to hear this on Sunday night. We
felt so locked in on the Bills.
Speaker 2 (30:58):
I bet him seven and a half.
Speaker 1 (31:00):
Yeah. And like then, Brandon Anderson in the podcast that
he does, the action podcast that he does on Sunday
Nights with Evan after the Sunday night football game, made
this his hot read. He made it their hot raed
at seven and a half. So Brandon Anderson made.
Speaker 2 (31:16):
I know he took Bills.
Speaker 1 (31:18):
He took the Bills itself OA, which is a couple
couple interesting stats from the show Seven Seeds. There have
been eight seven seeds in the four years since the
NFL expanded the playoffs. Five of those eight lost their
opener by at least twelve points wild card hosts that
(31:39):
may that made last year's postseason playing a team that
didn't twenty two to ten to one, almost seventy percent
over the past two seasons. So history tells us Denver's
experience inexperience will play a factor.
Speaker 2 (31:53):
At Bonnick's making his first start against a veteran like
Josh Allen Like, that's also a terrible trend. So I'm
with you. It's there's a lot to like about this
Bills team. That's why it's I'm not banging the table here.
It's just I'm just weary of the.
Speaker 1 (32:05):
Number against teams with the winning records. This year. Bo
Nicks is one and seven with a minus thirty seven
point differential.
Speaker 2 (32:14):
Not great, Jim, that was good.
Speaker 1 (32:23):
That was really good. That was really good. Well, listen,
I'm boomed that we're not together on it.
Speaker 2 (32:28):
I might come around on Thursday. I just yeah, yeah,
I got bullied a little bit about like, there's not
too many games I had people talking shit to me
about that I respect, and this was one. They're just
like you and Chatt had sound way too confident on
this Bills team. And it's what you just read there.
It's like, isn't this the game that Josh Allen just
fucking destroys this Broncos team that overachieved this year? But
(32:48):
no bone Knicks man covering machine.
Speaker 1 (32:51):
So the wise guys talked about me again when they
called you, they included me in the in the conversation.
Speaker 2 (32:57):
You didn't come up that I remember beyond.
Speaker 1 (33:00):
Well no, no, but you just said you and Chad.
Speaker 2 (33:03):
Yeah yeah, yeah, I'm saying they didn't. They didn't call
up saying Chad's way off this week.
Speaker 1 (33:06):
No, no, no, that's okay. But the fact that they just
sort of include me. I like to be remembered, I
like to be acknowledged. The fact that they recognize me
as part of this is fantastic. That's really it. All right,
This game Green Bay at Philadelphia, as my buddy Keith
(33:30):
Jackson likes to say, is done.
Speaker 2 (33:33):
No, we can finally play the game.
Speaker 1 (33:36):
We love this game at three and a half on
Sunday night, and we assumed it would go up off
of either money or because Love news after we were
done with the show, it was pretty much it was
pretty clear Jordan Love was going to play. And this
line moved from three and a half to five and
a half between Sunday night and Monday morning. And I
(33:59):
can't think y're out why? Like that is the window
when it became clear Christian Watson was going to be
out and wasn't going to be playing this weekend, but
we knew Jordan Love was going to be playing. And
I don't know why it would get so high up
to five and a half, got back down to four
Monday afternoon, popped back to four and a half this morning.
What are you hearing? What are you seeing? What do
(34:19):
you know? It can't be, It can't be Jalen Hurts,
Like Schefter tweeted out yesterday that Jalen Hurts was still
in the protocol. But yeah, he's in the protocol because
he has to be in the protocol until he has
an opportunity to practice, and he hasn't had that opportunity yet,
so we won't know his status until tomorrow. And or Thursday,
because that's when he has the first chance to check
(34:41):
off that last thing you need to check off to
get out of the protocol, which is being on the
field for a practice. So why why did he move
up so much?
Speaker 2 (34:49):
You know, I'd just say from the top, like sources
I have in that building that I know for a
fact they are just locked in. They're in the room
like they're everything they say it's ninety percent accurate. In
the other ten percent they're giving me is just to
throw me off the scent of some other bs. And
basically it's a given that Hurts is all good, he'll
be back. He could have played last week apparently, and
(35:10):
this is kind of Nixierranni playing mind games right now
with green Bay, and I guess books me too. I
honestly was a little scared because I did see that
Chefter tweet and then we just said just came back
and out of like, oh well, they're not even scheduled
to practice till Wednesday.
Speaker 1 (35:25):
Yeah, so he can't be a bit of a red
herring of a tweet like it was. It was ever
by Chefty to get some engagement and make a little noise,
but it doesn't really mean anything.
Speaker 2 (35:36):
No, and like this is the time of year where
I have to have his you know, alerts turned on
because it's such a small amount of games that any
little detail like that it's a huge deal. It swings
lines like you just said. One of the more respective
books all out on Vegas. They were one of the
first to go to five and a half, which means
they took legit smart professional money, heavy on the Eagles,
(35:58):
to go from four up to five and a half.
Books are gonna follow, Like right now, we talk all
the time books they can kind of do their own
thing in the regular season. In the playoffs, you basically
need to follow everyone else. Like you can maybe be
different by half a point, you can't be off by
the books by a full point. Like there is none
of that at this point. Like all the books are
gonna keep it really tight and a little bit of
(36:20):
follow the leader, right, A lot of these re public
books that don't take professional money, they're gonna follow the
books that do take the professional money. Those are the
people said in the line. So our initial reaction of
that three and a half terrible line, Like it's crazy
looking back on that. They opened at a three minus
three and a half. You know, as good as that
Green Bay team was heading into that playoff series last
(36:40):
year against that Dallas team, it feels like it's the
opposite this year. Like they just have so many injuries
to key guys. I mean even talking about Jordan Love,
like he's not fully healthy, he's banged up. Now he's
playing a team that you know, Eagles are in a
very unique situation here. They're one of the few teams
I believe they have all twenty two starters from Week
one still healthy, still playing in this matchup now, and
(37:03):
this this late of the season, coming off a rest week.
Jalen hurts. He's rested someone who needed desperately. Apparently he
was really banged up lower body. He needed two to
three weeks off. Like that was kind of a gift
for them to be able to be in that position. So,
if you want to bet on a slow start, why
not take green Bay first quarter. Egos have struggled all
year in the first quarter. Green Bay has been pretty
(37:23):
decent coming out of the gates early on in game.
So if you're looking for an angle for some reason,
take green Bay. That to me is the angle, Like
take them first quarter, maybe first half. This Eagles team
all season, they are who they are. They've just been
absolute juggering on in the second half because of sae
Quon Barkley, and we've seen it now. This Green Bay team,
they struggle against the run. They're just not good at
(37:43):
stopping the run. And now they're playing against one of
the best run running teams in all of football. So
to me, this number should probably GetUp to six. I
remember we talked something night. I was like, okay, if
this number is four, four and a half, that feels right.
I go back frum the numbers, It's like, okay, this
number should be six. So the books to me, initial
move to five and a half. That to me feels right,
that feels warranted. There is still a book out there
(38:04):
that you can get a four right now on this
Eagles team. If you want to go grab that, I would.
I would do it. If you want to back this
Eagle side, if you're someone like that just wants to
be patient and wait and take take Green Bay because historically,
I guess this is a pretty good spot at back
green Bay. Right this is gonna be a little bit
of an inflated number, you know. Lafleur As a dog,
especially in the playoffs, has been pretty profitable. Wait, just wait,
(38:25):
I believe this will not get below four. This will
keep going up. I think it could touch six by kickoff.
So uh yeah, I'm pretty dug dug in here on
this Eagles team, especially at this number. But you know,
if you come in here on Thursday Chat and this
is six and you're like, hey, I'm actually really fun
of love with this six, I could, I could, I
could be supportive of you take on the show, but
(38:45):
I think right now, the best value for your bang
for your buck right now is taking this Eagles team
either minus four minus four and a half while you
still can.
Speaker 1 (38:52):
Yeah, I actually was this was gonna be my other
call for exac decision, And actually I actually thought you
were going to do it for Simon says and take
the Eagles.
Speaker 2 (39:04):
Now, I gotta go the gross way. I gotta take
that dog.
Speaker 1 (39:07):
But you mentioned I'm glad you talked about the Packers
rush defense, because we talked a lot on Sunday Night
about liking the Eagles. For as much as we like Saquon,
we talked about their defense like their defense is so
legit number one across the board in so many different categories,
(39:31):
but like top five in every single defensive category for
stopping the run. And we've seen how are the Packers
going to win games? They want to get the ball
to Josh Jacobs early. We see it in every single game.
The graphic you could if you could bet on the
graphic about Josh Jacobs running in twenty twenty four, when
(39:56):
it's going to appear over under two and a half
plays into the Packers first offensive series, like they they
want to run the ball, and then they get to
the second half and all of a sudden, like the
running game slows down and they stop scoring right, And
so the Eagles there their line, their defensive line is
(40:17):
so physical and they need so little help stopping the
run from linebackers. It's just it's it's phenomenal to watch,
and it's scary if you're an opponent. Meanwhile, their rush
offense is ridiculous, and the Packers rush defenses middle, middle
of the middle of the pack. So yeah, I'm surprised
to hear you say like at six, like now I
(40:38):
want to go rush and find that four and hit
it again, even though I already got it at three
and a half.
Speaker 2 (40:44):
I have like when that when that news came out yesterday,
that Chefter a tweet, that's why Again I it's part
of the job, but I immediately was like calling runners,
get in my car driving to Philly again. Got got
more Pittsburgh down at Pittsburgh plus ten, got more Philly
down a minus four, and even a couple books where
like I'll give you minus one twenty if you want
the three and a half, and it's like, yeah, I'll
fucking take that, give it to me. So it's it's
(41:08):
an interesting spot where that I think even the books
were like reacting to Schefter's news of oh, Jaleen Hurts
might be out and he might not play this game.
Now we've come in today and it's like every book
is basically back up to four and a half. I
think they realize that that was just bad information. That
he's clearly going to practice either Wednesday or Thursday and
he'll be cleared from percussion protocols.
Speaker 1 (41:26):
So now that information, it was completely accurate information, just
totally selective and without context.
Speaker 2 (41:33):
Yeah, it just clicks like that's he got what he wanted.
Speaker 1 (41:37):
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Speaker 2 (42:30):
Pretty simple chat? Because comfort is king.
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As always wearing my tjs today put them on almost
like like I don't even think about it. If it's
(42:55):
a show day, they just automatically appear at the top
of the pile. It's like magic Washington at Tampa Bay.
Tampa Bay's three point favorite at home Your first instinct
was playing this. You said you saw a couple two
and a half's on Sunday night. It did get up
to three. You played the Bucks. I have no read
(43:17):
on this one. It seems like two teams that have
qbs who can make the heart attack plays converting the
clutch too, defenses that are not very good, especially against
the strength of their opponent's offense. Seems like it's numbered
exactly right. You know, if home Field is three points,
then basically they're getting the three points. I don't know
(43:42):
what to do with this one. In fact, if home
Field is worth less these days, then the Bucks might
be the Mugs. The Bucks might be overvalued.
Speaker 2 (43:55):
Yeah, I would say if that, if you just going
lazy managers, go well, Homefield only two to two and
a half valuies on Commanders. I agree with that, but no,
it's to me this is just all about the Commanders
being overvalued. This line shoure probably be four four and
a half. The public just loves this Commander's team. They're
gonna bet it. I know some professionals who actually love
this Commanders team, and they're pointing to this the safety
(44:17):
position of the Bucks. They're like, dude, they're banged up,
like they're gonna be able to push the ball downfield.
And I I mean it goes back to what we
talk about Nicks. It's like we have a rookie Mick
in their first starting the playoffs, playing a veteran quarterback
with a veteran run offense like this, this is such
an amazing bounce back spot for this Buccaneers team, Like
this is kind of the dreams Innario. They just had
(44:39):
their worst game they could possibly have against a divisional
foe in a game which you know, I'm not saying
they should have lost it, but the Saints are such
a bad team. They did give it away. I think
they were up sixteen to three at one point and
they lost that game. So you know, that Bucks team,
we've seen it when things are clicking, like they beat
the Eagles, they beat Detroit like they've beat I mean,
(45:00):
they dominated that Chargers team that we talked that we loved,
like they seem to step up on these big moments
against good competition, and they played back competition. They played
down to the level and they struggle. It's it's been
a very up and down team, and we know the deal.
It's all about Baker. Chad. What what type of Baker
am I betting on here? And that's why, like I
looked at this to make Simon says, because I do
love this team. I love this number and I see
(45:21):
it going up. But it's the hesitation of Baker. It's like,
I know it sounds crazy, but because he said such
a great year, but me and Chad to have experienced it,
Like we've seen games where yes, he'll throw for five touchdowns,
he might throw for three or four picks, and it's
like he has to dig himselves out of these insane holes.
This ain't the team to do that against, like Jane Daniels.
You give him short fields, he's gonna kill you. Keep
(45:43):
giving them extra opportunities, he's gonna kill you. And the
biggest thing I'm betting on here is the trends in
the back in this veteran team. And you know the Bucks.
They're at home against a rookie making his first playoff
start on the road. We know the deal. It's just
teams are tighter. And if this was what that Bonnett
sign is, which is like above a seven yeah, no doubt.
I would like to play the Commanders like that would
(46:05):
be a nice back to option. It's not. It's sitting
on three right now and it's getting a ton of money,
a ton of bets this Commander's team. So this feels
like the nice spot. There's a couple of spots here
you can fade the public, like if you want to
back Green Bay, that's a nice spot to fade the
Eagles in the public. But this one really jumps out
to me of rookie QB making first start on the road,
rookie of the year, couldn't be any more hyped what
(46:27):
he is right now, and this Jade and Daniels kid
going against a Bucks team that after last week, it
feels like everyone's just off this team. Like again, I
was shocked to here professional as being the other side
where it just felt like such a layup bet to me.
So yeah, I'll take the three and I pray, pray
that more money comes to the Commanders and I get
two and a half.
Speaker 1 (46:44):
Look, you know what they say about Jaden Daniels, He
is the Bryce Young of the NFC East. The guy
can just flat out ball and he's not afraid. He's
not afraid to face down the rush.
Speaker 2 (46:57):
Now. I already can't wait to bet him to win
the nfcast next year because we know that deal right,
It's whoever won this year is going through hell next year.
So Eagles being third in the division, lock it up.
Washington won the division next year doesn't get much easier.
But in this spot, n they're about to get humbled
this franchise.
Speaker 1 (47:13):
You're all in. I feel like this will end up
being like a must play for us. I have not
bet this game yet. I just can't get it. But
the way you feel about it, I'm obviously going to
want to be all in with you on this game.
Last game on the board, Minnesota at the LA Rams
the Perfect. The Rams are one and a half point underdogs.
(47:43):
This line has moved from two and a half down
to one and a half. Simon, can you name the
last team to beat the Vikings before they lost to
the Lions this past Sunday Night?
Speaker 2 (47:59):
Was it that thirty twenty one Rams?
Speaker 1 (48:02):
They lost on October twenty fourth, thirty to twenty. Then
they went on a nine game win streak.
Speaker 2 (48:08):
Vikings lost.
Speaker 1 (48:09):
You mean the Vikings lost? Yeah, then they went on
a nine game win streak. The score was thirty to twenty.
You're correct. I saw this funny TikTok meme the other day.
It's like the Memory Championships or something, and it's a
dude who's married, and an off camera announcer says to him,
(48:33):
can you name the score of the nineteen eighty two
mid season game between the Bengals and the Browns? And
he can, like name the game. He can name the score,
he can name the leading rusher, he can name you know,
how many interceptions can you whatever? Right now, it's all
(48:56):
like a joke, right, It's like, can you name X,
Y and Z sports? Then it's like, okay, your wife
texted you this morning. She wants you at the grocery
store to pick up He cannot answer it. He's like,
can you put it in a sentence? Can you give
me the context? He could not answer it. The fact
(49:16):
you can remember the score thirty to twenty from October
twenty fourth. So many things have happened those three months,
and yet you can remember that exact store. Here's the
real question. What can we learn from that game? Like,
other than the Bills game, it may have been the
Rams best performance of the season, right, Stafford went for
almost two eighty yards for a touchdown. They didn't give
it any sacks. Kyvin Williams ran for just under one
(49:39):
hundred yards. Vikings sacked three times, two for seven and
third down. Donald looked rattled, right, So is there like
a takeaway of that game? And on Sunday night against
the Lions, are we getting to Donald who winning a
nine game win streak but basically beat up on bad
(50:01):
teams and book ended it with losses to two playoff teams.
So what's your take here?
Speaker 2 (50:09):
Yeah, it's definitely like we talked about the playoffs coming
down the quarterbacks, and this to me is another game
of that. It's I don't know what Stafford we're getting chat.
I mean Stafford's last three games he put up twelve points,
nineteen points, and thirteen points. That was against a forty
nine Ers team that basically quit on the season, a
Jets team that we know the deal, and then Arizona.
It's like, was he hurt? Did he need this bye?
(50:29):
Because Jimmy Jimmy g came in and lit up that
Seahawks defense. Like you know, McVeigh is putting him in
position to succeed. He's just not doing it like it's
It's been a lot of questions about Stafford down the stretcher.
Is he injured? Like are we not getting enough info?
And that's what I've been working here because automatically I
wanted to be on this Rams team, Like this is
a team that has playoffs, been in the playoffs in
(50:49):
these big moments with a veteran quarterback. And offensively, he
has all of his guys like he has Puka Cooper,
He's Williams in the backfield, like there's no excuse here.
And defensively, we know, we saw it the last time
they played. They kind of know how to attack, you
know this this offense in the vikings. But you know
(51:10):
Sam Donald, not that he gave away that Lions game,
but we all saw the stat they kept putting up. Right,
this is a team that this season they scored touchdowns
sixty percent of the times they went to the red zone.
And that game against the Lions, they were zero for
four at one point, and this is like, oh for four,
Like they're letting Sam Donald throw it every time, so
he might have been you know, one for I believe
(51:32):
it was twelve in the red zone at one point,
like completions, and the one completion was a little dump off,
like you know justin Jefferson. Sure he had to drop
in the back of the end zone, but we had
guys online breaking down the film of all these easy
plays that Kevin O'Connell basically drew up from where it's
like pick play Oprah receiver coming down the middle. He
wasn't seeing it. So are we are we going to
react to Sam Donald because that was, you know, a
(51:54):
playoff game. He knew the deal. That's the game where
he wins. He gets that one seed, he's either getting
French by the Vikings or he's getting a fifty million
dollar contract per year from somebody. Like that was the moment,
and he didn't live up to it. I feel bad
for him because you could see him wearing it in
that game, like he knew he was going through it
and still that line's game. It was ten to six,
(52:16):
he got the ball start the second half, and he
did nothing with it. So like that's the fear here
is Sam is kind of running to what his problem
was all along his career. It's the mental demon. It's
like he has their arms count.
Speaker 1 (52:28):
He's seeing ghosts.
Speaker 2 (52:30):
Actually, I don't want to say it, but that's what
it felt like.
Speaker 1 (52:32):
That's what it felt like on Sunday, honest to God,
and that I'm rooting for the guy. I hope he
gets a big contract. I'm all for sort of those
kinds of stories. But it felt like he was seeing ghosts.
Speaker 2 (52:48):
Right, And then you break down the numbers and what's
going into this one, and it's like, there's a reason
this ramped him beat them the first time around. Like
Stafford against the Blitz, He's pretty good against it. These
type of unique cover schemes that Flores likes to run
against a veteran quarterback like this doesn't usually work. It
works on the young guys and inexperienced quarterbacks, but guys
like Stafford who have seen at all, it doesn't work.
(53:10):
So you know, if this, if Stafford hadn't been playing
so bad head into this, Chad, this would be another
spot I'd be like hammering, like this is a great number.
I've thrown it a bunch of teasers. Like getting them
up to seven and a half right now against this
Vikings team is such great value. And I get the
public perception. I see why in the action app right now,
all the money, all the bets are coming on this
Vikings team because you know they they've dominated this outside
(53:34):
their division this year, right, but we've seen the one
kryptonite to this division has been this RAMS team. Like
they took them down, they took down the lines like
they do match up well against these teams. So yeah,
interesting spot here for this, this this RAMS team. I
really want us to be heavy on it, but I
won more infos because long as I want to talk
to more pro see what they're seeing. But yeah, you
(53:55):
can see I'm I'm really excited about this RAMS team.
I think you're getting good value, especially at plus one
and a half. This this should be either minus one
RAMS or closer to a pick. You're still getting good
plus value on this number. So yeah, clearly the value
is on this RAMS team.
Speaker 1 (54:07):
Well, look, you mentioned what a veteran quarterback who's seen
it all can do against the Brian Flores blitz. Just
look at what Jared Goff did every single time he blitzed.
Jared Goff threw it to that exact open spot and
he knew he was going to get tagged. He did it.
He made an accurate throw if it was three, four
or five yards and it just kept chunking up plays,
(54:28):
kept chunking up yardage, and all of a sudden they're
up thirty one at night, right, Like just a couple
of those times it comes through and you get burned.
And that was the difference in that game. By the way,
teaser rams from one and a half to seven and
a half, bills from bills eight and a half to
(54:50):
two and a half.
Speaker 2 (54:51):
Yeah, so that's that one that jumps out to me.
And again we obviously believe in the Steelers here. If
you've already made ravens teasers got ahead of the number,
that's that was a good bet whenever you made it.
But at this point, you know, are you really going
to do a seven point teaser? Get them down to
three and you're gonna lose when the land's on three.
So that to me, like mean, that's why we're not
even bring up the Ravens here for our teasers. To
(55:12):
me the bills rams here. That that's the value jumping
out to me on the board.
Speaker 1 (55:18):
All right. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented
by Bet three sixty five and now new Bet three
six five. Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars and
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(55:40):
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(56:01):
episode of The Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page
eleven am Eastern Thursday to talk our NFL Wildcard Weekend
best bets. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you
get your pods, Rate review, subscribe us five stars, say
whatever you want. Feedback is gift until next time.
Speaker 3 (56:18):
Love you.
Speaker 1 (56:27):
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
someone you care about has a gambling problem. Help is
available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler
Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast, presented by BET
three six five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today is
our Tuesday NFL wild Card Weekend episode. We're going to
break down the opening weekend of the NFL Playoffs. We
will discuss our exec decision and our Simon says and
(00:33):
do not fret. On Thursday, we will have the usual menu,
foxhol big balls, all that good stuff. The number of
games slims down, but our enthusiasm for the playoffs has
never been bigger. Live from our Tommy John Holmes Studios.
I'm joined as always by my bff, my cost my companion,
(00:54):
Mike combiede Er Professional Better, Simon Hunter l Simon.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
Hello, Chat. I feel bad I'll saying I hadn't ask
you about who the hell you want to be the
new Bear's new head coach.
Speaker 1 (01:05):
Well, I've got so many good choices now between potentially
Mike McCarthy or Thomas Brown or Ben Johnson, who, if
he's smart, is going to run as fast as he
can from this glorious opportunity. This morning I woke up
and I'm like, I love Mike McCarthy. I think he'd
be great. Like, my expectations are so low right now
(01:30):
for who will be the head coach? What this organization
can pull in based on its history, based on its
executive structure, based on how much it might be willing
to pay versus other teams, Like can we get Mike
dickaback like Mike dick a circa nineteen eighty three, who
(01:53):
is essentially Dan Campbell?
Speaker 2 (01:56):
True?
Speaker 1 (01:57):
I don't know. Is there a Dan Campbell motivator out
there who can overcome literally generations of ineptitude and ownership
that is legacy focused and driven and has not been
able to transform into a modern organization. Give me that guy.
Speaker 2 (02:18):
I'll say. I've learned as an Eagles fan that you
don't want the guy you want, you usually don't want
to get, right. I remember I wanted Ben Nacadoo and
the Eagles, and we got Doug Peterson, some nobody QB
coach from Kansas City War still wore visors and I
was like, oh my god, this guy is not filly
at all. Probably my only ring so shows how stupid
(02:39):
Ust fans can be. So yeah, I just want to
get your level of it because I'm I'm reading, I'm
with you, I'm reading the news and everything like that,
and it's like, man, this is gonna be really interesting
to see who ends up with the Bears because you
do have, you know, the top talent at quarterback position,
and there's a lot to work with it with his team.
So it's to me, it's fun like when you're trying
to figure out the future when you're a team like
you have, it's it's exciting to because either going to
(03:01):
absolutely love it or you were going to hate whoever
they bring.
Speaker 1 (03:04):
In, doesn't matter. It's not going to end well and
it'll be the wrong person. It's so funny that you
mentioned Doug Peterson because I wrote a little soliloquy about
Doug into the script today because he means a lot
to both of us and he's an integral part of
both of our lives. You just mentioned he led your
(03:25):
favorite team to its only super Bowl win in twenty eighteen,
which happened to be played a little Action Network history here.
Weeks after we launched Action and we did a massive
radio and TV blitz, like in the two weeks before
the Super Bowl to get Action all over local radio,
(03:47):
doing these radio two tours, thirty forty fifty spots, whatever,
and we were all over you know, the airwaves, predicting
that the Eagles would cover as underdogs in that game
against the Pats. Obviously they did more than that, and
it kicked off a beautiful beginning to our business. As
(04:10):
you know, I just said it, like I almost feel
like Doug Peterson is a little bit of the precursor
to Dan Campbell because the most famous play from that game,
of course, is Philly Special, Philly, Philly. They go forward
on fourth and one at the end of the first half.
It turns from a fifteen to twelve leave into a
(04:31):
twenty two to twelve lead. They scored a touchdown on
the play. It was that you know, option to Nick Foles,
who was who caught the ball in the end zone.
But here's the real reason why, Well do you agree
with me? By the way, like I think he was
at the leading edge of going forward and fourth down.
He was more aggressive as the Eagles coach than any
(04:54):
other coach in the NFL was at the time, and
it sort of gave birth to what a life lot
of coaches do today, especially Dan Campbell.
Speaker 2 (05:02):
Shockingly, I can't be I'm gonna do it because he
was not this way at the end of his career.
But Riverboat Ron Ron Rivera that team, that run, he
was the most go for Cam Newton fourth and two,
fourth and three, ultimate trust in his quarterback. So I'll
give him the crib, But I think Doug definitely was
the guy that was the first to have a ton
of success with it, right, like that that run, you
(05:25):
know that was all about it, right He even that
Super Bowl He had those big, big moments like that,
like you just talked to the Philly specials on a
fourth and one, like, you know he misses that play.
Talk about an idiot, right if like you're going for
in that in that position. So yeah, Doug. Doug Peterson
definitely at the top of that list.
Speaker 1 (05:43):
We also love him because his team's covered this season.
This Like we talked about this when he came back, like.
Speaker 2 (05:49):
We was good to us as a dog.
Speaker 1 (05:50):
I loved betting Doug Peterson when he came back to
the Jags. Uh. He finished his career over five hundred
over fifty three as an underdog, so he was covering
and making us money this season. This is a great
stat I looked this up on Action network you can
see against the spread records. This season, the Jags were
ten and seven against the spread, tied with four other
(06:11):
teams for eleventh best. However, they were only They were
the only team of the top thirteen teams to finish
with double digit losses and only one of three teams
to not make the playoffs. The others were the nine
win Bengals and the eight win Cardinals. Late in the year,
he provided one of the few bright spots we had
(06:34):
this season. We just had a beat on Doug Peterson
and Mac Jones and his team. So let's give it
up for Doug. Ep Thank you Doug, Thank you Doug.
As a reminder of the Favorites podcast is presented by
Bet three sixty five and now new Bet three six five.
Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets
when you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites,
(06:56):
deposit ten dollars, place a bet for five dollars to
get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those
bonus bets can be used on spread totals, player props, futures,
and more. Whatever the moment it's never ordinary at bet
three sixty five. Must be twenty one or older in Presidenton, Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
(07:19):
older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions
restrictions apply right One last quick announcement before it gets
to a wildcard weekend. Our favorite one hundred thousand dollars
Pro Football Pick Them contest has crowned its winners. Paperwork
is being filled out, piles of cash or being dolled out.
(07:42):
On Thursday morning, Simon and I expect to be chatting
with are extremely excited forty thousand dollars first place winner.
I look forward to sharing that with listeners. The dude
was on fire all season long. We're gonna try to
convince to put all of it on Wildcard weekend with
(08:03):
us A very quick congrats two week eighteen winner, Promo
Master went five and zero within one yard of the tiebreaker.
Promo Master takes home the final weekly one thousand dollars prize. Simon,
we love the playoffs we're starting a new it's a
challenging regular season. I feel locked in. I feel good
(08:25):
about where we're headed. I feel like I have clarity.
Are you ready to roll with your brother?
Speaker 2 (08:31):
I am. I just want to pick it back off
what you just said though, how much we do love
our fans and you know me chat, we don't know
the future with what our contest says next or anything
like that, but to have two seasons in a row
giving away over one hundred k cash, it's pretty cool,
man Like, it's it's so rich getting in this unique
position to do it. And thank you to all the
fans that played in the contest and obviously the fans
(08:52):
that came to our live show the past two years
and just talked about the contest and how much fun
it is. And you know a couple of people I've
met like that thousand dollars, right, that's huge that week, Right,
it goes towards your rent or maybe in a vacation
you're you're planning with a special friends. So yeah, I'm
happy it's over for us personally, but I'm sad it's
over for the fans and end the season just because
(09:13):
it is so much fun. Just giving away free money every.
Speaker 1 (09:15):
Week Simon another great example of how you feel more deeply.
N are a significantly kinder person than I am.
Speaker 2 (09:26):
If you catch me at the right moment.
Speaker 1 (09:27):
Yeah, well it's early in the week. Right.
Speaker 2 (09:30):
There you go.
Speaker 1 (09:31):
The Los Angeles Chargers first playoff game, Saturday afternoon, visiting
the Houston Texans.
Speaker 2 (09:37):
Don't gamble, don't associate with gamblers. Avoid it like the plague.
Speaker 1 (09:44):
This game has been bouncing around three two and a half,
three two and a half. I did bet at at
two and a half. I bet the Chargers. It's at
three at bet three six five. There's one or two
books where you can get two and a half. We
like the Chargers on Sunday night. Nothing has changed mind,
thirty six hours of research since the game's locked on
(10:05):
Sunday night, digging in yesterday, so many thoughts on this.
But before I dig in, sort of from my point
of view, has anything changed for you since we first
started talking about it on Sunday?
Speaker 3 (10:18):
No.
Speaker 2 (10:18):
I think our gut instinct of taking the minus two
and a half for the Chargers or take the minus
three was right. We both thought that this would go up.
The most shocking part is it did touch three and
a half for a second, and then some really smart
money clearly came in. A couple of those books moved
all the way two and a half. That's how much
they respect the money they did come in on Houston.
So it's it's gonna be an interesting game because I'm
(10:39):
not really seeing it from the Houston side. And like,
my perspective is, Okay, Houston's defense is better than people
give them credit for. Right, they have outperformed in a
lot of ways this season, but we've seen like Herbert
and this team against good defenses had played really well,
Like anytime they faced a good defense, they played sound football.
And especially Herbert, I mean, you know, obviously it's NonStop
(11:01):
us giving him flowers, but he deserves it this season,
Like the him being smarter with the ball is the
key to the success of this team this season. And
I don't know if you only had four turnovers or
five interceptions, whatever it was, it's it's incredibly low for
someone like him that loves to push the ball downfield.
So looking at this matchup on paper, it's like, Okay,
we already love the Chargers matchup wise, like their defense
(11:23):
going against this really bad I don't say really bad
because they've had so many injuries to their offense in Houston,
but they are struggled, strug Yeah, struggling. And you know
the fact that we also have a short week here,
like that's not being talked enough to me, is that
this is a short week and it is a spot
where hardball, you know, he's three and oh straight up
(11:44):
and against the spread this season as on a short week.
On the flip side, we've seen Houston, they've struggled on
short weeks, right, They've not been the same team on
short weeks with less preparation. And the only hesitation for
me is that this will be the Chargers third strade
road game, Like that's not a great spot. They are
a road favorite in this spot, which is.
Speaker 1 (12:04):
Stort straight as a road favorite, right.
Speaker 2 (12:06):
So, like there's a lot of trends at point to
back in Houston, which is to me why smart money
here is coming in on Houston where it's like mathematically yes,
like Houston probably is the right side long term. But
me and chat always talk about there is that thirty
percent that's what we're betting on here. We're betting on
the other side of that where it's like this to
me is the right spot, the right side, and this
(12:28):
is the perfect team matchup wise against this this team
in Houston, Like, I just think that they could have
caught some other teams and maybe you could see a
way for Houston to win or cover. I'm just not
finding one in your chat, so, like it's shocking how
much I am supporting you here because this does feel
insanely chalky to me, like very very public. But to me,
the number is right, the value is on the number,
(12:48):
and I'm just I just think this should be three
and a half. We're getting three minus two and a half.
I'll take that value every time.
Speaker 1 (12:54):
Smart money may be coming on Houston, but this is
the executive decision.
Speaker 2 (13:01):
The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible. Are you
have your honors text acute number executive decision.
Speaker 1 (13:09):
It's partially the exact decision because a lot of the
other numbers have moved just much more aggressively from when
we first started talking about these. So I still like
the two and a half three for the Chargers. But
everything you said I can back up with even more
detail and more data. We have avoided betting the Texans,
(13:32):
right like CJ has not played well. He has not
played well because of constant injuries to his receiving corps.
The offensive line has truly been terrible. They cannot get
off the line of scrimmage and win one on one
matchups right now. Defenses have played him differently this year.
(13:54):
The last eight games of the year, they ranked twenty
eighth in EPA per play. You know, that's behind Chicago Bears,
Indianapolis Colts, Las Vegas Raiders, and Tennessee Titans. Meanwhile, why
(14:15):
have we loved the Chargers? You just mentioned it. They
do not turn the ball over only nine all season,
second fewest behind Buffalo. And I'm gonna keep saying it.
I feel like this year and we'll get We're gonna
do like a big sort of study over the offseason
on the impact of getting the ball to thirty and
(14:39):
then being able to be within field goal range within
a play or two. How that impacts coaching decisions, clock management,
fourth down decisions when you are deciding to go for
the extra four points, if you're on the other side
of the field and you know you have a field
goal in your pocket, Archers just don't make egregiously bad
(15:02):
coaching decisions. And that's been an imperative this year when
it comes to clock management, when it comes to going
forward and fourth down. So you and I are aligned.
I like the coaching matchup, not saying I don't like
Dmiko Ryans, but I just love Harbaugh and I like
what Herbert can do. I don't like how CJ. Stroud
has played. I think this will be the last game
(15:23):
to a tough year in which everything that the Texans
had had a hard time overcoming will come to fruition
in this game. They aren't going to all of a
sudden be great. They don't have the personnel that they
thought they were going to have.
Speaker 2 (15:36):
And the basically the basics is that when you're going
through all these playoff games, you really have to believe
in the quarterback right when you're playing these numbers, because
that's that's what it all comes down to, and it's
the legacy play off. You know, we both remember obviously
what happened last time Herbert was in the playoffs. That
was an historical meltdown. But when you go back and
(15:57):
you think about it, it's like, if you had the
right coaching, that just wouldn't have happened against that Jaguars team.
His first time around the playoffs, So I'm not taking
too much away from it. I am taken away from
it that he came out in the playoffs this first
time around. He lit it up offensively. He was moving
the ball downfield. So I think Herbert is ready for
this moment. And I mean it's all sudden up chat
they if they if they steal this game here and
(16:17):
they do go to play Kansas City. We've seen how
tough they played Kansas City or can they be the kryptonite?
So it is lined up perfectly. And you know, as
someone that has money invested in the Chiefs, yes, it
would be very nice for me if Houston would win
this game because that would be an absolute lay up
for this Chiefs team. So yeah, it's it's lined up
for this Chargers team to make a run with Harball.
Speaker 1 (16:37):
My takeaway from that Jaguars Chargers playoff game, Doug ep
can bring you back and we need some money because
we were on the Jags in that game. I don't
know if you remember it. I remember that was a
stressful game right there.
Speaker 2 (16:50):
I think you were in New York. We were watching
with everyone and I was like we were at a
party with all of our coworkers, and I was like,
I got to get out of here at halftime. I
just couldn't couldn't do it anymore. And yeah, that was
as a legendary comeback.
Speaker 1 (17:02):
If you're interested in tailing my executive decision on the Chargers,
here's what you should do. Go to the app. Use
BET's bet three six five's quick slip link. You can
see it in this episode description. You're just going to
click on it. It's going to take you right to
(17:22):
the bet that you want. It's going to open up
a slip you can just put in how much you
want to bet you're on the Chargers. I used quick
slip this morning when I was baking a bet on
this next game. It is one click from your mobile device.
The Chargers bet slip will just pop up in your
bet three six y five app. You'll be ready to bet.
(17:43):
It is automagical Pittsburgh out Baltimore. It's the second game
on Saturday.
Speaker 2 (17:52):
It's Baltimore. Gentlemen, the Gods will not save you.
Speaker 1 (17:56):
Baltimore is a ten point favorite. This one's going for
a ride. Brother. It'll at eight and a half on
Sunday night. It's only gone up it seems like the
ceiling is ten. When it hit ten, there was by back.
It came down to nine and a half, then it
went back back up to ten, and it's kind of
just been sitting there, which is a little surprising to me,
and that it hasn't come back down. I don't know
(18:18):
why this happened. Okay, I'm gonna tell you a story.
I woke up this morning at like four o'clock and
I had to pee. I tossed and turned for like
two hours trying to go back to bed, and I
couldn't This happens every single night, by the way, it's
freaking brutal. At around six fifteen, it's still pitch blackout
(18:39):
and this pops into my head. I don't know why.
Isn't it crazy that the Steelers are ten point underdogs.
It's like, isn't this the ultimate overreaction? I rolled over,
opened up the action app. I used quick slip, by
the way, and I bet the Steelers a plus ten.
I wonder what Mike Tomlin is going to say about that.
Speaker 2 (19:00):
That's a bad moment right here for your youngsters. Let's live.
It's not the shocking though, because we basically broke it
down to the net. We knew this was gonna be
one of the heavier teased moneyline parlay teams, Like the
books basically are just protecting against that chat. That's what
to me the movement's based off, because I told you
they know they're gonna get Pittsburgh professional money, Like it's
(19:21):
just a fact that it's going to come in the
amount of money though from Joe public right now just
shows how heavy it is on the moneyline parlays and
everything like that with this Ravens team, which to me
makes sense. This is a Pittsburgh team that they're on
what a four game losing streak. I think Evan put
in his article they haven't scored more than seventeen points
in those games, Like Russ has just fallen off an
(19:41):
absolute cliff. To this point, me and you are simply
betting on this basically this matchup because we have historically
always just taken the dog and we've just been making
crazy money doing it, and the fact that these are
divisional rivals and that these games are always just weird. Now,
the first time they played, I believe was eighteen sixteen
(20:01):
win by this Pittsburgh team. Second time they played, I
believe that I got blown out thirty four to seventeen
four seventeen, But when you go back and you look,
it's like there were basically in that game until Joey
Porter Junior went out. Once he went out, Lamar just
totally took advantage of that. Now his back, JJ Watt
put up a legit, I think his first his career
(20:23):
at last week.
Speaker 1 (20:24):
TJ Watt, Yeah, JJ, every single same.
Speaker 2 (20:27):
You know why, It's because I've been I've been watching
a lot of JJ Watt stuff because he owns my
soccer club, Burnley. So I've just been locked in on
JJ Watt. I know it's brutal, I keep doing it.
But TJ basically had his first, I feel like of
his career shutout last week against Cincinnati, Like literally didn't
have a tackle, didn't have a sack at zero pressures
was He even said it was one of the worst
(20:48):
games he's ever played. Okay, so we have Joey Porter
Junior back for this defense, we have an insanely motivated
TJ Watt defensively, and they might be without their number
one were and Zay Flowers, which to me, that's an underline,
like that's a very very something that's not being talked
about enough right now. That's a huge deal for this
team losing him coming in because he is the deep threat,
(21:11):
like he's the reason they have to keep a safety
back and that Derek Henrick can have these type of runs.
Same with Lamar. But now that he's out, why would
they not come down and stack the box. So yeah,
we like we didn't dive into the trends. I kind
of want to save that for Evan Thursday, but I
love it like this. I can't help it. When it
went to ten, I remember thinking to myself, oh my god,
(21:31):
I am either just the sucker right now, just like
last week with that Chief's number, or this is like
you just said, this is an insane amount of disrespecting
movement against this Pittsburgh team and we are getting I mean,
what feels like two to three free points to work
with here, like something that's very unique to playoff football
where books have to protect against these big favorites. So
(21:52):
we know the data right ten point favorites, they're seventeen
and one straight up. That one loss was Lamar against
that Tennessee team twenty twenty, I believe. So there's just
there's a lot, like I know we we I get crown.
I don't know if Chad does is lamar hater. It's
just in the playoffs, Like, what do you guys want
me to do? We have the data, Like last year
we talked about that was the perfect team for him,
(22:14):
and he couldn't do anything against that Chiefs team. So
we've seen him struggle against good defenses in the playoffs.
I think this Pittsburgh team, I know they haven't shown
up late, but I still think they are an elite defense.
And this is a nice spot to back this Pittsburgh team.
So yeah, Simon says, give me Pittsburgh plus ten. Chad.
Speaker 1 (22:30):
When Simon says do it, we do what Sence, I
bet it too. I put it in the app it
said plus ten. I couldn't decide when I was ultimately
betting it. Is this a high confidence bet that we're
making or is it a we're backing the trends and
we're backing the overreaction at the ten, I don't know
(22:53):
that we have a team that is in a winnable game.
I think we're just getting to your point, a team
that has lost four games in a row. You mentioned
that the seventeen points. They haven't scored more than seventeen
points in a game since beating the Browns twenty seven
to fourteen on December eighth, right, you know, while the
(23:16):
Ravens they haven't scored fewer than thirty one points or
even lost since December first. So the reason this number
is so big right now, And I agree, let's save
some of the massive trends that back the Steelers for
Thursday show. But if you've listened to this show all
(23:38):
season long, you know that, like this matchup between Harbaugh
and Tomlin favors the underdogs, and Mike Tomlin specifically, he
has historically dominated as the underdog in this matchup. So
like this is such a disparity in public perception more
(24:01):
than anything. That's why this number is so big. And
you're alluding to it with the sort of the teaser
protection and all that kind of stuff.
Speaker 2 (24:06):
And I've been someone that has just faded Pittsburgh in
the playoffs these last couple of years just because it's
been like a Duck Hodges or Kenny Pickett. It's never
been a quarterback I can believe, and I'm not saying
I'm not saying I believe in Russell Wilson. He's the guy.
This is this is the type of moment, This is
the reason they brought him in. This is a veteran
quarterback in the playoffs who's had playoffs success. You expect
(24:27):
him to step up in this big moment. But to me,
you're you're saying, what's your confidence level? It's it's as
high as it could be on a team that's lost
four straight. It's it really is all about their matchup.
Like if they're playing a legit good team like say
the Bills, it'd be different. This isn't that would be
outside their division. This is just the two teams are
familiar with each other where like we said, it's it
(24:48):
always leans towards the dogs when these two teams play.
And then it gets magnified the fact that Lamar has
one team that he really struggles with in his career.
It's Pittsburgh. Like that. We talk all the time about that.
It's a huge deal. So so there's your certain teams
that match up all against you, that have your number,
and I just believe in this Pittsburgh team. So yeah,
I'm obviously confident, and it's really all about the number.
Like this, this reaching plus ten. I mean again, like
(25:11):
I said, I just can't help myself. That's way too
many points and it just feels like it's an easy
one that's going to come down to a field goal,
and we're getting a ton of value on this Pittsburgh team.
Speaker 1 (25:20):
So in that game on the twenty first, there's a
couple games in the playoffs that are rematches from earlier
in the season, the vikings in the Rams as well,
and I think that bears looking at because in that
game on the twenty first, it was I think seventeen seventeen, right,
(25:42):
it was close through it was close through three quarters,
and then the Ravens went ahead in the last ninety
seconds of the third quarter. And that's around when Joey Porter,
you know, he tried to play in the second half.
He couldn't, right, Russell Wilson threw a pick six. Would
have felt like after that this team needed to be
perfect and they couldn't. Yeah, And also George Pickens did
(26:07):
not play in that game. And I know, like he
was shitty last week against the Bengals. I don't expect
him to be shitty every week, and I that was
like his first game back after several weeks out. You
gotta expect him to have some kind of impact here too.
Speaker 2 (26:21):
Yeah. Again, we get all the doubt on Pittsburgh. We
understand why money is coming in so heavy and Joe
Public is backing this Ravens team. It's just, you know,
this is the type of swat we played, Chad, and
you know, I always bet. I would say I bet
playoffs a little differently. If this was a regular season
obviously we would be on this Pittsburgh side. But no,
(26:42):
it's just I just love this number so much for
this Pittsburgh team.
Speaker 1 (26:46):
One other thing I'll add before we get on to
the next game is the Ravens are snake pick when
it comes to procedure penalties, holding penalties, pre snap penalties,
those things up when you're a ten point underdog. You know.
That's like we saw it over the weekend. Like the
Ravens weren't covered in that game until the very last
(27:09):
series when Derrick Henry you know, busted it open for
a long touchdown run. But they bite themselves in the
ass with really bad penalties that start them off behind
the chains or kill drives or bring back big plays.
So that could be something that comes into play if
you're interested in tailing this, Simon says, pick on the Steelers.
Check out the special bet three six ' five quick
(27:32):
slip link in this episode description. Just one click from
your mobile device and a Steelers bet slip pops up
and your bet three six y five app ready to bet.
Check it out. I love it. It's the best technology.
Really is Denver at Buffalo Sunday game Bufflow is eight
and a half point favorite.
Speaker 3 (27:51):
Good afternoon, everyone. This is Van Miller and the road
to the super Bowl goes through Orchard Park, New York,
and it is the Bills looking to trade the on
the snow much through New York for a trip.
Speaker 1 (28:03):
To the super Bowl. We discussed it eight and a half.
We discussed life liking Buffalo. Mostly it was just the
first instinct. Matt Mitchell came on and said he does
not worry about the Buffalo Bills in the Wildcard. I
don't worry about it either. I've bet the Bills at
eight and.
Speaker 2 (28:16):
A half, did you I've I'm on the other side.
I know I've come around to them.
Speaker 1 (28:24):
I have.
Speaker 2 (28:24):
And it's really it really is about Teum Payton facing
this defense of Buffalo. I just I can't get on
my head how many points this is, and that historically
he has done well, and it's like, maybe maybe I
am thinking too much, read too much into the trends
here with this one. But I'm just going through the
matchup and it's like Josh Allen's going to get his
(28:46):
He's gonna put up points, and it's like, Okay, now
I'm banking on bone Nicks to drive the field multiple times,
to get me multiple backdoor touchdowns or whatever it's going
to be, because we already know the dealer, right, this
is going to be a January game in Buffalo. It's
going to be freezing cold. It's this kid's first playoff start. Historically,
fade fade fade guys making their first starts, And I
(29:06):
did really want to be on Buffalo. This is a
team where you know, I will throw them in teasers.
I'm just gonna avoid the spread if I need be,
because I'm just a little weary of this number being
so big. Smart guys I've talked to at this point
are just like, no, you have to take Denver, like
this is the exact spot, said Sean Payton, and Evan
wrote in his article it kind of backs it up right,
Sean Payton. He's on the press of Picton doing some
(29:27):
historical here. If he wins and covers this or if
he covers this game, I believe it. Evan, he'll be
five and oh is a road dog in the playoffs,
which is rare air. So you know, obviously the other
times he did that, it was with Drew Brees, a
Hall of Fame quarterback, but it's still it was Drew
Brees as a dog in the playoffs, and Sean Payne
had him preparing up to that moment. I think the
(29:48):
same thing here where it's like, isn't this too many
points for a Bill's defense that we've seen since Week
nine have struggled like they're one of the bottom teams,
and they kind of got away with it at the
end there, right because they had a Patriot, then they
had the Jets, and then the Patriots again, Like not yeah,
they didn't play anyone in the final week, but it's
like there was a reason they had kind of struggled
this season against winning teams. And I can't get over
(30:10):
at bo Nicks, man, it was historical. I think he
was twelve and five against the spread this season, one
of the best rookie seasons, We've seen him, and I
believe Joe Flacco in two thousand and eight had the
second best or maybe the best rookie season against the spread.
So he plays up to the potential line sets by
the book makers. And in no world do I see
the Bills losing this. Like I said, happy to take
this down to two and a half, but covering this
(30:32):
number with that bad defense, I think it's going to
be a little more challenging than I perceived on Sunday night.
I make this number seven and a half. It's eight
and a half. I'll take the value on this Denver team,
but it's you can hear in my voice, not too
much confidence. Chet. I have heard so much about Buffalo.
I can hardly wait to get there.
Speaker 1 (30:53):
I'm so surprised to hear this on Sunday night. We
felt so locked in on the Bills.
Speaker 2 (30:58):
I bet him seven and a half.
Speaker 1 (31:00):
Yeah. And like then, Brandon Anderson in the podcast that
he does, the action podcast that he does on Sunday
Nights with Evan after the Sunday night football game, made
this his hot read. He made it their hot raed
at seven and a half. So Brandon Anderson made.
Speaker 2 (31:16):
I know he took Bills.
Speaker 1 (31:18):
He took the Bills itself OA, which is a couple
couple interesting stats from the show Seven Seeds. There have
been eight seven seeds in the four years since the
NFL expanded the playoffs. Five of those eight lost their
opener by at least twelve points wild card hosts that
(31:39):
may that made last year's postseason playing a team that
didn't twenty two to ten to one, almost seventy percent
over the past two seasons. So history tells us Denver's
experience inexperience will play a factor.
Speaker 2 (31:53):
At Bonnick's making his first start against a veteran like
Josh Allen Like, that's also a terrible trend. So I'm
with you. It's there's a lot to like about this
Bills team. That's why it's I'm not banging the table here.
It's just I'm just weary of the.
Speaker 1 (32:05):
Number against teams with the winning records. This year. Bo
Nicks is one and seven with a minus thirty seven
point differential.
Speaker 2 (32:14):
Not great, Jim, that was good.
Speaker 1 (32:23):
That was really good. That was really good. Well, listen,
I'm boomed that we're not together on it.
Speaker 2 (32:28):
I might come around on Thursday. I just yeah, yeah,
I got bullied a little bit about like, there's not
too many games I had people talking shit to me
about that I respect, and this was one. They're just
like you and Chatt had sound way too confident on
this Bills team. And it's what you just read there.
It's like, isn't this the game that Josh Allen just
fucking destroys this Broncos team that overachieved this year? But
(32:48):
no bone Knicks man covering machine.
Speaker 1 (32:51):
So the wise guys talked about me again when they
called you, they included me in the in the conversation.
Speaker 2 (32:57):
You didn't come up that I remember beyond.
Speaker 1 (33:00):
Well no, no, but you just said you and Chad.
Speaker 2 (33:03):
Yeah yeah, yeah, I'm saying they didn't. They didn't call
up saying Chad's way off this week.
Speaker 1 (33:06):
No, no, no, that's okay. But the fact that they just
sort of include me. I like to be remembered, I
like to be acknowledged. The fact that they recognize me
as part of this is fantastic. That's really it. All right,
This game Green Bay at Philadelphia, as my buddy Keith
(33:30):
Jackson likes to say, is done.
Speaker 2 (33:33):
No, we can finally play the game.
Speaker 1 (33:36):
We love this game at three and a half on
Sunday night, and we assumed it would go up off
of either money or because Love news after we were
done with the show, it was pretty much it was
pretty clear Jordan Love was going to play. And this
line moved from three and a half to five and
a half between Sunday night and Monday morning. And I
(33:59):
can't think y're out why? Like that is the window
when it became clear Christian Watson was going to be
out and wasn't going to be playing this weekend, but
we knew Jordan Love was going to be playing. And
I don't know why it would get so high up
to five and a half, got back down to four
Monday afternoon, popped back to four and a half this morning.
What are you hearing? What are you seeing? What do
(34:19):
you know? It can't be, It can't be Jalen Hurts,
Like Schefter tweeted out yesterday that Jalen Hurts was still
in the protocol. But yeah, he's in the protocol because
he has to be in the protocol until he has
an opportunity to practice, and he hasn't had that opportunity yet,
so we won't know his status until tomorrow. And or Thursday,
because that's when he has the first chance to check
(34:41):
off that last thing you need to check off to
get out of the protocol, which is being on the
field for a practice. So why why did he move
up so much?
Speaker 2 (34:49):
You know, I'd just say from the top, like sources
I have in that building that I know for a
fact they are just locked in. They're in the room
like they're everything they say it's ninety percent accurate. In
the other ten percent they're giving me is just to
throw me off the scent of some other bs. And
basically it's a given that Hurts is all good, he'll
be back. He could have played last week apparently, and
(35:10):
this is kind of Nixierranni playing mind games right now
with green Bay, and I guess books me too. I
honestly was a little scared because I did see that
Chefter tweet and then we just said just came back
and out of like, oh well, they're not even scheduled
to practice till Wednesday.
Speaker 1 (35:25):
Yeah, so he can't be a bit of a red
herring of a tweet like it was. It was ever
by Chefty to get some engagement and make a little noise,
but it doesn't really mean anything.
Speaker 2 (35:36):
No, and like this is the time of year where
I have to have his you know, alerts turned on
because it's such a small amount of games that any
little detail like that it's a huge deal. It swings
lines like you just said. One of the more respective
books all out on Vegas. They were one of the
first to go to five and a half, which means
they took legit smart professional money, heavy on the Eagles,
(35:58):
to go from four up to five and a half.
Books are gonna follow, Like right now, we talk all
the time books they can kind of do their own
thing in the regular season. In the playoffs, you basically
need to follow everyone else. Like you can maybe be
different by half a point, you can't be off by
the books by a full point. Like there is none
of that at this point. Like all the books are
gonna keep it really tight and a little bit of
(36:20):
follow the leader, right, A lot of these re public
books that don't take professional money, they're gonna follow the
books that do take the professional money. Those are the
people said in the line. So our initial reaction of
that three and a half terrible line, Like it's crazy
looking back on that. They opened at a three minus
three and a half. You know, as good as that
Green Bay team was heading into that playoff series last
(36:40):
year against that Dallas team, it feels like it's the
opposite this year. Like they just have so many injuries
to key guys. I mean even talking about Jordan Love,
like he's not fully healthy, he's banged up. Now he's
playing a team that you know, Eagles are in a
very unique situation here. They're one of the few teams
I believe they have all twenty two starters from Week
one still healthy, still playing in this matchup now, and
(37:03):
this this late of the season, coming off a rest week.
Jalen hurts. He's rested someone who needed desperately. Apparently he
was really banged up lower body. He needed two to
three weeks off. Like that was kind of a gift
for them to be able to be in that position. So,
if you want to bet on a slow start, why
not take green Bay first quarter. Egos have struggled all
year in the first quarter. Green Bay has been pretty
(37:23):
decent coming out of the gates early on in game.
So if you're looking for an angle for some reason,
take green Bay. That to me is the angle, Like
take them first quarter, maybe first half. This Eagles team
all season, they are who they are. They've just been
absolute juggering on in the second half because of sae
Quon Barkley, and we've seen it now. This Green Bay team,
they struggle against the run. They're just not good at
(37:43):
stopping the run. And now they're playing against one of
the best run running teams in all of football. So
to me, this number should probably GetUp to six. I
remember we talked something night. I was like, okay, if
this number is four, four and a half, that feels right.
I go back frum the numbers, It's like, okay, this
number should be six. So the books to me, initial
move to five and a half. That to me feels right,
that feels warranted. There is still a book out there
(38:04):
that you can get a four right now on this
Eagles team. If you want to go grab that, I would.
I would do it. If you want to back this
Eagle side, if you're someone like that just wants to
be patient and wait and take take Green Bay because historically,
I guess this is a pretty good spot at back
green Bay. Right this is gonna be a little bit
of an inflated number, you know. Lafleur As a dog,
especially in the playoffs, has been pretty profitable. Wait, just wait,
(38:25):
I believe this will not get below four. This will
keep going up. I think it could touch six by kickoff.
So uh yeah, I'm pretty dug dug in here on
this Eagles team, especially at this number. But you know,
if you come in here on Thursday Chat and this
is six and you're like, hey, I'm actually really fun
of love with this six, I could, I could, I
could be supportive of you take on the show, but
(38:45):
I think right now, the best value for your bang
for your buck right now is taking this Eagles team
either minus four minus four and a half while you
still can.
Speaker 1 (38:52):
Yeah, I actually was this was gonna be my other
call for exac decision, And actually I actually thought you
were going to do it for Simon says and take
the Eagles.
Speaker 2 (39:04):
Now, I gotta go the gross way. I gotta take
that dog.
Speaker 1 (39:07):
But you mentioned I'm glad you talked about the Packers
rush defense, because we talked a lot on Sunday Night
about liking the Eagles. For as much as we like Saquon,
we talked about their defense like their defense is so
legit number one across the board in so many different categories,
(39:31):
but like top five in every single defensive category for
stopping the run. And we've seen how are the Packers
going to win games? They want to get the ball
to Josh Jacobs early. We see it in every single game.
The graphic you could if you could bet on the
graphic about Josh Jacobs running in twenty twenty four, when
(39:56):
it's going to appear over under two and a half
plays into the Packers first offensive series, like they they
want to run the ball, and then they get to
the second half and all of a sudden, like the
running game slows down and they stop scoring right, And
so the Eagles there their line, their defensive line is
(40:17):
so physical and they need so little help stopping the
run from linebackers. It's just it's it's phenomenal to watch,
and it's scary if you're an opponent. Meanwhile, their rush
offense is ridiculous, and the Packers rush defenses middle, middle
of the middle of the pack. So yeah, I'm surprised
to hear you say like at six, like now I
(40:38):
want to go rush and find that four and hit
it again, even though I already got it at three
and a half.
Speaker 2 (40:44):
I have like when that when that news came out yesterday,
that Chefter a tweet, that's why Again I it's part
of the job, but I immediately was like calling runners,
get in my car driving to Philly again. Got got
more Pittsburgh down at Pittsburgh plus ten, got more Philly
down a minus four, and even a couple books where
like I'll give you minus one twenty if you want
the three and a half, and it's like, yeah, I'll
fucking take that, give it to me. So it's it's
(41:08):
an interesting spot where that I think even the books
were like reacting to Schefter's news of oh, Jaleen Hurts
might be out and he might not play this game.
Now we've come in today and it's like every book
is basically back up to four and a half. I
think they realize that that was just bad information. That
he's clearly going to practice either Wednesday or Thursday and
he'll be cleared from percussion protocols.
Speaker 1 (41:26):
So now that information, it was completely accurate information, just
totally selective and without context.
Speaker 2 (41:33):
Yeah, it just clicks like that's he got what he wanted.
Speaker 1 (41:37):
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Speaker 2 (42:30):
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As always wearing my tjs today put them on almost
like like I don't even think about it. If it's
(42:55):
a show day, they just automatically appear at the top
of the pile. It's like magic Washington at Tampa Bay.
Tampa Bay's three point favorite at home Your first instinct
was playing this. You said you saw a couple two
and a half's on Sunday night. It did get up
to three. You played the Bucks. I have no read
(43:17):
on this one. It seems like two teams that have
qbs who can make the heart attack plays converting the
clutch too, defenses that are not very good, especially against
the strength of their opponent's offense. Seems like it's numbered
exactly right. You know, if home Field is three points,
then basically they're getting the three points. I don't know
(43:42):
what to do with this one. In fact, if home
Field is worth less these days, then the Bucks might
be the Mugs. The Bucks might be overvalued.
Speaker 2 (43:55):
Yeah, I would say if that, if you just going
lazy managers, go well, Homefield only two to two and
a half valuies on Commanders. I agree with that, but no,
it's to me this is just all about the Commanders
being overvalued. This line shoure probably be four four and
a half. The public just loves this Commander's team. They're
gonna bet it. I know some professionals who actually love
this Commanders team, and they're pointing to this the safety
(44:17):
position of the Bucks. They're like, dude, they're banged up,
like they're gonna be able to push the ball downfield.
And I I mean it goes back to what we
talk about Nicks. It's like we have a rookie Mick
in their first starting the playoffs, playing a veteran quarterback
with a veteran run offense like this, this is such
an amazing bounce back spot for this Buccaneers team, Like
this is kind of the dreams Innario. They just had
(44:39):
their worst game they could possibly have against a divisional
foe in a game which you know, I'm not saying
they should have lost it, but the Saints are such
a bad team. They did give it away. I think
they were up sixteen to three at one point and
they lost that game. So you know, that Bucks team,
we've seen it when things are clicking, like they beat
the Eagles, they beat Detroit like they've beat I mean,
(45:00):
they dominated that Chargers team that we talked that we loved,
like they seem to step up on these big moments
against good competition, and they played back competition. They played
down to the level and they struggle. It's it's been
a very up and down team, and we know the deal.
It's all about Baker. Chad. What what type of Baker
am I betting on here? And that's why, like I
looked at this to make Simon says, because I do
love this team. I love this number and I see
(45:21):
it going up. But it's the hesitation of Baker. It's like,
I know it sounds crazy, but because he said such
a great year, but me and Chad to have experienced it,
Like we've seen games where yes, he'll throw for five touchdowns,
he might throw for three or four picks, and it's
like he has to dig himselves out of these insane holes.
This ain't the team to do that against, like Jane Daniels.
You give him short fields, he's gonna kill you. Keep
(45:43):
giving them extra opportunities, he's gonna kill you. And the
biggest thing I'm betting on here is the trends in
the back in this veteran team. And you know the Bucks.
They're at home against a rookie making his first playoff
start on the road. We know the deal. It's just
teams are tighter. And if this was what that Bonnett
sign is, which is like above a seven yeah, no doubt.
I would like to play the Commanders like that would
(46:05):
be a nice back to option. It's not. It's sitting
on three right now and it's getting a ton of money,
a ton of bets this Commander's team. So this feels
like the nice spot. There's a couple of spots here
you can fade the public, like if you want to
back Green Bay, that's a nice spot to fade the
Eagles in the public. But this one really jumps out
to me of rookie QB making first start on the road,
rookie of the year, couldn't be any more hyped what
(46:27):
he is right now, and this Jade and Daniels kid
going against a Bucks team that after last week, it
feels like everyone's just off this team. Like again, I
was shocked to here professional as being the other side
where it just felt like such a layup bet to me.
So yeah, I'll take the three and I pray, pray
that more money comes to the Commanders and I get
two and a half.
Speaker 1 (46:44):
Look, you know what they say about Jaden Daniels, He
is the Bryce Young of the NFC East. The guy
can just flat out ball and he's not afraid. He's
not afraid to face down the rush.
Speaker 2 (46:57):
Now. I already can't wait to bet him to win
the nfcast next year because we know that deal right,
It's whoever won this year is going through hell next year.
So Eagles being third in the division, lock it up.
Washington won the division next year doesn't get much easier.
But in this spot, n they're about to get humbled
this franchise.
Speaker 1 (47:13):
You're all in. I feel like this will end up
being like a must play for us. I have not
bet this game yet. I just can't get it. But
the way you feel about it, I'm obviously going to
want to be all in with you on this game.
Last game on the board, Minnesota at the LA Rams
the Perfect. The Rams are one and a half point underdogs.
(47:43):
This line has moved from two and a half down
to one and a half. Simon, can you name the
last team to beat the Vikings before they lost to
the Lions this past Sunday Night?
Speaker 2 (47:59):
Was it that thirty twenty one Rams?
Speaker 1 (48:02):
They lost on October twenty fourth, thirty to twenty. Then
they went on a nine game win streak.
Speaker 2 (48:08):
Vikings lost.
Speaker 1 (48:09):
You mean the Vikings lost? Yeah, then they went on
a nine game win streak. The score was thirty to twenty.
You're correct. I saw this funny TikTok meme the other day.
It's like the Memory Championships or something, and it's a
dude who's married, and an off camera announcer says to him,
(48:33):
can you name the score of the nineteen eighty two
mid season game between the Bengals and the Browns? And
he can, like name the game. He can name the score,
he can name the leading rusher, he can name you know,
how many interceptions can you whatever? Right now, it's all
(48:56):
like a joke, right, It's like, can you name X,
Y and Z sports? Then it's like, okay, your wife
texted you this morning. She wants you at the grocery
store to pick up He cannot answer it. He's like,
can you put it in a sentence? Can you give
me the context? He could not answer it. The fact
(49:16):
you can remember the score thirty to twenty from October
twenty fourth. So many things have happened those three months,
and yet you can remember that exact store. Here's the
real question. What can we learn from that game? Like,
other than the Bills game, it may have been the
Rams best performance of the season, right, Stafford went for
almost two eighty yards for a touchdown. They didn't give
it any sacks. Kyvin Williams ran for just under one
(49:39):
hundred yards. Vikings sacked three times, two for seven and
third down. Donald looked rattled, right, So is there like
a takeaway of that game? And on Sunday night against
the Lions, are we getting to Donald who winning a
nine game win streak but basically beat up on bad
(50:01):
teams and book ended it with losses to two playoff teams.
So what's your take here?
Speaker 2 (50:09):
Yeah, it's definitely like we talked about the playoffs coming
down the quarterbacks, and this to me is another game
of that. It's I don't know what Stafford we're getting chat.
I mean Stafford's last three games he put up twelve points,
nineteen points, and thirteen points. That was against a forty
nine Ers team that basically quit on the season, a
Jets team that we know the deal, and then Arizona.
It's like, was he hurt? Did he need this bye?
(50:29):
Because Jimmy Jimmy g came in and lit up that
Seahawks defense. Like you know, McVeigh is putting him in
position to succeed. He's just not doing it like it's
It's been a lot of questions about Stafford down the stretcher.
Is he injured? Like are we not getting enough info?
And that's what I've been working here because automatically I
wanted to be on this Rams team, Like this is
a team that has playoffs, been in the playoffs in
(50:49):
these big moments with a veteran quarterback. And offensively, he
has all of his guys like he has Puka Cooper,
He's Williams in the backfield, like there's no excuse here.
And defensively, we know, we saw it the last time
they played. They kind of know how to attack, you
know this this offense in the vikings. But you know
(51:10):
Sam Donald, not that he gave away that Lions game,
but we all saw the stat they kept putting up. Right,
this is a team that this season they scored touchdowns
sixty percent of the times they went to the red zone.
And that game against the Lions, they were zero for
four at one point, and this is like, oh for four,
Like they're letting Sam Donald throw it every time, so
he might have been you know, one for I believe
(51:32):
it was twelve in the red zone at one point,
like completions, and the one completion was a little dump off,
like you know justin Jefferson. Sure he had to drop
in the back of the end zone, but we had
guys online breaking down the film of all these easy
plays that Kevin O'Connell basically drew up from where it's
like pick play Oprah receiver coming down the middle. He
wasn't seeing it. So are we are we going to
react to Sam Donald because that was, you know, a
(51:54):
playoff game. He knew the deal. That's the game where
he wins. He gets that one seed, he's either getting
French by the Vikings or he's getting a fifty million
dollar contract per year from somebody. Like that was the moment,
and he didn't live up to it. I feel bad
for him because you could see him wearing it in
that game, like he knew he was going through it
and still that line's game. It was ten to six,
(52:16):
he got the ball start the second half, and he
did nothing with it. So like that's the fear here
is Sam is kind of running to what his problem
was all along his career. It's the mental demon. It's
like he has their arms count.
Speaker 1 (52:28):
He's seeing ghosts.
Speaker 2 (52:30):
Actually, I don't want to say it, but that's what
it felt like.
Speaker 1 (52:32):
That's what it felt like on Sunday, honest to God,
and that I'm rooting for the guy. I hope he
gets a big contract. I'm all for sort of those
kinds of stories. But it felt like he was seeing ghosts.
Speaker 2 (52:48):
Right, And then you break down the numbers and what's
going into this one, and it's like, there's a reason
this ramped him beat them the first time around. Like
Stafford against the Blitz, He's pretty good against it. These
type of unique cover schemes that Flores likes to run
against a veteran quarterback like this doesn't usually work. It
works on the young guys and inexperienced quarterbacks, but guys
like Stafford who have seen at all, it doesn't work.
(53:10):
So you know, if this, if Stafford hadn't been playing
so bad head into this, Chad, this would be another
spot I'd be like hammering, like this is a great number.
I've thrown it a bunch of teasers. Like getting them
up to seven and a half right now against this
Vikings team is such great value. And I get the
public perception. I see why in the action app right now,
all the money, all the bets are coming on this
Vikings team because you know they they've dominated this outside
(53:34):
their division this year, right, but we've seen the one
kryptonite to this division has been this RAMS team. Like
they took them down, they took down the lines like
they do match up well against these teams. So yeah,
interesting spot here for this, this this RAMS team. I
really want us to be heavy on it, but I
won more infos because long as I want to talk
to more pro see what they're seeing. But yeah, you
(53:55):
can see I'm I'm really excited about this RAMS team.
I think you're getting good value, especially at plus one
and a half. This this should be either minus one
RAMS or closer to a pick. You're still getting good
plus value on this number. So yeah, clearly the value
is on this RAMS team.
Speaker 1 (54:07):
Well, look, you mentioned what a veteran quarterback who's seen
it all can do against the Brian Flores blitz. Just
look at what Jared Goff did every single time he blitzed.
Jared Goff threw it to that exact open spot and
he knew he was going to get tagged. He did it.
He made an accurate throw if it was three, four
or five yards and it just kept chunking up plays,
(54:28):
kept chunking up yardage, and all of a sudden they're
up thirty one at night, right, Like just a couple
of those times it comes through and you get burned.
And that was the difference in that game. By the way,
teaser rams from one and a half to seven and
a half, bills from bills eight and a half to
(54:50):
two and a half.
Speaker 2 (54:51):
Yeah, so that's that one that jumps out to me.
And again we obviously believe in the Steelers here. If
you've already made ravens teasers got ahead of the number,
that's that was a good bet whenever you made it.
But at this point, you know, are you really going
to do a seven point teaser? Get them down to
three and you're gonna lose when the land's on three.
So that to me, like mean, that's why we're not
even bring up the Ravens here for our teasers. To
(55:12):
me the bills rams here. That that's the value jumping
out to me on the board.
Speaker 1 (55:18):
All right. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented
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(56:01):
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best bets. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you
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whatever you want. Feedback is gift until next time.
Speaker 3 (56:18):
Love you.
Speaker 1 (56:27):
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