May 30, 2023 • 27 mins
Jason Timpf reacts to Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat's 103-84 Game 7 win over Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics to advance to the NBA Finals for a matchup with Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets. Jason breaks down the biggest highlights from Miami's victory, what went wrong for Boston, and how the Celtics can move forward. #volume #herd
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
The Volume. All right, welcome to Hoops Tonight here at
the Volume. Happy Monday, everybody. I hope all if you
guys are having a great week so far. We are
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(00:23):
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Also coverage of the Eastern Conference Finals. Here. Hoops Tonight
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you cash back? Well? The unbroken uh never before happened?
Come back from three to zero series that we were
all kind of expecting to a certain extent, tonight did
(00:44):
not come to fruition as the Miami Heat punk the
Boston Celtics on their home floor to advance to the
NBA Finals. Got a bunch of stuff I want to
dive into. I want to dive into the confidence dynamic
that I think led to Miami's big night tonight, which
I think is super interesting and is informative as we
look forward into future seasons. I want to talk about
(01:06):
the job that Eric Spolstra did to throw Boston off schematically.
I want to look a little bit forward to the finals.
We're not gonna do too deep of a dive because
I will be doing a full finals preview tomorrow morning.
And then at the end, we're gonna talk a little
bit about the Boston Celtics and what went wrong for them,
and if you're a Celtics fan, I have a much
(01:26):
less gloom and doom type of approach to this situation.
I actually am pretty optimistic about their future. So we'll
talk a little bit about them as well. You guys
know the job before we get started. Subscribe to the
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(01:47):
YouTube to finish, don't forget. You can find them wherever
you get your podcasts. Under Hoops tonight, So confidence in
big games, you know, there's a there was almost like
a we got nothing to lose type of dynamic taking
place in the previous three games, right, like all of
the damage so to speak, to the reputations of the
(02:09):
players involved, to the reputation of the coach involved, and
all of the negative Celtics sentiment was already there after
Game three when you go down three to zero, right,
so it's like, you know, Marcus Martin, Jalen Brown, like,
don't let us win one? Okay, you got one? Okay,
then you want a home game. And then even then
in game six, it's still kind of enoughing to lose
(02:30):
type of situation. The spread is closer, right, Like I think,
I think at the tip off, Boston was only like
a two and a half point favorite or a three
point favorite. You end up barely winning that game. But
in Game seven, suddenly that dynamic shifts. Suddenly you are
the favorite. You're a eight point favorite. After Game five,
(02:51):
Miami still favored to win the series at that point.
It's a totally different dynamic going into this Game seven.
And you guys all probably notice. And there's gonna be
a lot of focus on the ankle injury for Jason Tatum,
and I don't want to underplay it because it certainly
had an impact on what happened to Boston tonight. But
I think that even if Jason Tatum had not sprained
(03:12):
his ankle, a relatively similar outcome would have taken place.
Because regardless of what was going on with Jason Tatum,
from the opening tip of this game, you could see
a giant gap in how comfortable Miami felt under the
weight of the moment compared to the way that Boston felt.
And I think that that trickles down the roster. When
(03:33):
Jimmy is playing as confidently as he was, even after
a couple of bad games, he was carrying himself so
confidently that everyone else on the roster seemed to feel
that way. Kyle Lowry rising confidently into jump shots, you know,
Caleb Martin rising confidently into jump shots. There are you know,
even like difficult shots, like rescue possessions. There's a wild
(03:55):
player at the beginning of the second half, I think
where Max Strus on the left wing just takes and
makes a smothered three, like twenty seven feet from the basket.
But when he's rising into that shot, he's rising into
it like, hey, we got nothing to lose, man, Like
we're that they felt comfortable and confident in that setting.
And I think it's informative from this standpoint of youth
(04:17):
in basketball teams. And we're gonna talk a lot about
Boston and how we look forward and there's gonna be
a ton of conversations surrounding the Celtics in the coming
days and like should we blow it up? And should
Jaylen Brown get shipped off? And should we do this?
And should we do that? And to me, it's like
maybe the star that's in his thirties, that is the
(04:39):
fully formed version of himself that has discovered how to
impact winning on both ends of the floor over the
course of a decade, is just better at this kind
of thing than the other two stars who are, what
a twenty four year old and a twenty six year
old who have been in a lot of big games,
but have glaring weaknesses like Jaylen Brown. For as good
(05:01):
as he is, like he is an and I think
a lot of people talk about him like he can't
dribble at all whatsoever. I think that's overstated a little bit.
He just really struggles with protecting the basketball. And then
as he lost his confidence, he started to mess up
even basic dribble moves, like he fumbled away just a
basic crossover dribble in the fourth quarter of that game.
But you know, he just really struggles to protect the basketball,
(05:22):
and that puts you in an issue against the team
like Miami that is extremely good at forcing turnovers. And
I thought that was one of the many really smart
game plan approaches from Eric Spolstra in this series was
Jimmy Butler is your best defender. You could put him
on Jason Tatum, you could put him on Jaylen Brown.
He put him on Jaylen Brown with the sole purpose
(05:42):
of shattering his confidence and j Brown. Jimmy Butler was
consistently attacking the basketball every single time Jaylen Brown tried
to put the ball on the floor to go around him,
Jimmy's swiping at it from behind and knocking it away.
And maybe Jimmy could do a better job on Jason Tatum,
but he's able to complet lely and utterly shatter the
(06:02):
confidence and ego of Jylen Brown and turn him into
a shell of himself, which was kind of a better
use of resources than just making things tougher on Jason Tatum,
Who's gonna have a lot of success regardless. Right. That
goes all the way down the mark the roster. Caleb
Martin was unbelievable throughout this entire series. You see the
difference between Eric Spolstra and identifying where Caleb Martin has
(06:25):
success and kind of plugging him into those situations and
giving him a defensive assignment that he can handle. Right.
Spend a lot of time in this series on Jason
Tatum kind of pressuring the basketball and getting up under
underneath him. On offense, everything's on the move, a lot
of close out attacking situations, a lot of stuff off
of dribble handoffs, a lot of stuff in transition where
his athleticism can come to the surface. And he was
(06:48):
operating comfortably throughout and he played up to the absolute
peak of his ability, while Jaylen Brown played to the
absolute basement of his ability. That's the advantage of coaching
and game plan and experience in a series. You know
there's gonna be a version of Jaylen Brown when he's
Jimmy Butler's age, where he's the guy that's super comfortable
(07:09):
in every big game and has polished up all of
his significant weaknesses and understands exactly how to attack in
these types of settings. There are gonna be young guys
who win in the NBA. Jannis won a championship at
what twenty six years old, right, And like we saw
Stephan Lebron do it at twenty seven years old. But
there's just not a lot of examples of dudes that
(07:31):
just thrive in huge basketball environments at twenty four years old.
And you know we're gonna talk. We're gonna talk a
little bit about I want to wait to talk about
how Jason Tatum can get better at the in these
particular settings later on, But as we talk about Miami,
I do think that that's something to pay attention to. Here.
Experience won this series. Jimmy Butler and him being the
(07:53):
fully formed version of himself who knew how to consistently
get to places where he felt comfortable, and eric'spo being
in so many of these situations over the years that
he knew all the right buttons to push, that was
what ended up swinging this series. And like I said,
with all the talk about Boston's talent, and you guys know,
I'm the biggest proponent of Boston's talent, I think they've
(08:14):
had the most talented roster in the league over the
last two years. But as we said during that Golden
State Warriors series, that's only one part of what makes
a great basketball team. What makes a great basketball team
is so many things that go beyond talent. And Boston
leaves a lot to be desired in those areas. So
as we're looking forward and projecting in the future, as
(08:34):
we're talking about teams, I think experience going with the
guys that are closer to the absolute, fully formed version
of themselves, those are safer bets in these environments. And
I don't think it's a coincidence that Jimmy was the
best player in the Eastern Conference this year because he's
just the fully formed version of himself and he ran
(08:56):
into a Yiannis that has not figured out yet how
to consistently score over the top of defenses. He ran
into a Julius Randall that completely crumbled under that circumstance.
Jalen Brunson availed himself valiantly, I want to say. And
then that Boston series, you know, Jason Tatum never really
grabbed controls of the offense to the ability that you
would hope a player of his caliber can do. And
(09:17):
Jaylen Brown was a complete shallow himself. And so it's
just it's informative looking forward. I wanted to shout out
Eric Spolsher because obviously with all of these series, as
I've been talking about them, I keep saying at the beginning, like,
I have too much respect for Eric Spolstra to not
think that Miami has a chance to win these series.
And I did think that two particular things. We talked
about it earlier, but putting Jimmy Butler on Jaylen Brown
(09:40):
and just utterly demolishing his confidence in all of their
man demand situations, I think that played a big role.
And then also the zone defense, and the zone defense
didn't just give issues to Jaylen Brown, but it disrupted
the entire team, the entire Boston Celtics team. You know,
I talked about this a lot, but Boston to me,
has a lot of guys that can shoot, but they
(10:00):
don't have any real knockdown shooters. They don't have a
guy that's like, oh my god, you cannot leave this
dude open type of shooter. And the reason why that's
important is like all of those guys that are basically
league average to slightly above average shooters, all of those guys,
they're gonna succumb more to that team wide rhythm type
of stuff. Right when the entire team feels like they
(10:22):
can't make a three, kind of like what we saw,
especially in that first half, you're gonna see You're gonna
see those types of shooters kind of fall into that mess,
whereas like truly elite shooters, when they're missing, they know
the makes are coming and they know that they're gonna
keep confidently shooting because they know their results are eventually
going to come. And what was great about what Spolsure
(10:43):
was doing with that zone is it was really limiting
Boston's ability to get dribble penetration, and so they were
taking a lot of early clock contested threes or like
just swinging the ball around the perimeter and taking a
late clock three or turning it over as a Miami
Heat player are in the passing lanes, and they're never
going to break through when they're not getting higher quality
(11:05):
shots because those are not elite shooters, and so they
need to get really good catch and shoot looks to
bust out of their slump. And so I thought that
was really smart. And Spolstra's two three zone is very
different than a lot of the zones you see around
the league. It's very aggressive on the front, so the
guards on the front part of the zone are picking
up almost out at half court. The wings are coming
(11:28):
out of the corners and trapping in a lot of
cases and helping on ball screens and stuff, and BAM
is super active, and Boston just never did a good
enough job of getting the ball into the teeth of
the zone, getting the ball to the high post where
they could have a player there that can make reads.
Part of that is they just didn't have a player
that felt really comfortable operating down there, and then they
never felt confident enough in their three point shooting and
(11:50):
got in enough of a role there to make that work.
And it's a lesson for Boston in general too. If
you're going to be a super high volume three point
shooting team, you better have some real makers on the team,
like can't leave them open type of guys. If you're
a team that has a bunch of average to slightly
above average shooters, you need to be a team that
only takes threes when they're you know, wide open drive
(12:11):
and kick type of threes, or wide open threes in
pick and roll situations where the guy dies on the screen. Right.
So definitely thought Eric Spolstra pressed all the right buttons
over the course of this series. I said at the
beginning that their best chance to win was Eric Spolstra
coaching or using a schematic approach that would force Boston
into their ugliest offensive tendencies for longer stretches than usual.
(12:36):
That was their best chance. In hell, you just got
a four quarter masterpiece of ball pressure zone defense, forcing turnovers,
making Boston feel uncomfortable, and just crumbling their confidence to
the point where one of the league's best offenses looked
completely inept against a team in Miami that was not
(12:57):
an elite defensive team for the most part of this year.
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a NGI dot com. Looking forward to the finals and
again like I'm just gonna be you know, I'm a
big believer in just being one hundred percent authentic on
this show. I was. I hate that Boston Celtics team.
I talk to you guys a lot about that. In
(14:23):
Game six. They're arrogant, they play a brand of basketball
that I don't particularly like. There's a lot of reasons
why I don't like that team. In a vacuum, I
would have been rooting for Miami, But I was rooting
for Boston to win this series strictly because I do
not think Miami is capable of beating Denver. Now, Miami fans,
(14:44):
you should be thrilled about that, because I picked against
them in all three series and they still won. So
for you guys, if the reverse Jinks is real, then
you're gonna be in good shape. But Denver is different
than the other teams that they faced in that Eastern Conference.
They present all of the same physical advantages that Boston
presented in terms of interior size and perimeter size, but
(15:06):
they do not have the weaknesses that Boston has. This
is a much better offensive team that consistently gets quality
shots rather than going through extended stretches of not doing so.
This is a team that does not rely strictly on
dribble penetration or just knocking down a bunch of ketch
and shoot threes. No, this is a team that has
a behemoth of an offensive engine in Nikola Jokic that
(15:28):
will consistently generate high quality paint looks that are not
you know, driving right at a rim protector, but are
rather little pop shots and floaters in the lane that
Jokic makes it seventy percent. Jamal Murray has the ability
to operate out of the mid range at a much
higher level than any of the players on that Boston
Celtics roster. This is a team that is going to
(15:48):
generate wide open ketch and shoot threes as a part
of their offense, rather than Boston dribbling the ball at
the floor and just jacking up a stupid ass shot
like This team is much more more talented than anybody
they faced in the Eastern Conference without any of the
potential things that Spolstra and Jimmy can psychologically or schematically disrupt.
(16:09):
Denver's a minus three hundred and sixty favorite to win
the series. They're an eight and a half point favorite
to win Game one. I haven't done my series preview yet,
but I think I'm gonna pick Denver in five, for
whatever that's worth, since I've been wrong in every single
Miami series. But I was definitely rooting for Boston, even
though I hate those guys, simply because of the fact
that they would have presented a more like a talent
(16:32):
dynamic with Denver that would have made it a more
interesting series. This Denver team is really really good. I
don't think people even realize how big they are with
Nikola Jokic on the front line, but with Aaron Gordon
being one of the bigger, stronger, most athletic wings in
the league, and Michael Porter Junior, even with the injury
history that he has, he's just tall and he has
long arms, and he's done a really good job in
(16:54):
this playoff run of helping the Nuggets and contested rebound
situations and help defense with the length. He did a
really nice job chasing over the top and applying back
pressure on the Laker guards and getting block shots and
things like that. They're huge on the front line. And
then KCP is one of the best role player two
guards in the league, and Jamal Murray has been playing
(17:15):
at a bona fide superstar level for this entire postseason run.
So like, this is an entirely different challenge. And again
for you Heat fans, like I really like this Miami
Heat team. I kind of like my core basketball personality
is drawn to them and roots for them. But I
just I'm worried that this NBA Finals series could get
(17:35):
really ugly because this is just a whole other level
than what Miami has dealt with in the Eastern Conference.
We're gonna do a deep dive into the NBA Finals
as a preview tomorrow, so keep an eye on the feeds.
It should be up around noon Pacific Standard times, to
keep an eye on the feeds Boston. So there were
two things, in my opinion, that completely undid them in
this series. First of all, the defensi event. And we
(17:59):
talked a lot about this over the course of this series,
because they did have some flashes of really high level
defense in Game four and five and six. But you know,
the biggest fundamental difference between this Celtics team and last
year's Celtics team is last year's Celtics team. I left
every game thinking, oh, my gosh, that's one of the
best defensive teams I've ever seen. I literally said on
(18:21):
my show last year that I think is the best
defense in modern NBA history, especially in the half court.
It was their transition defense that did them in last year.
This year, they went from being a truly elite, generationally
great defense to a pretty good defense. And when their
offense is susceptible to the stretches of dysfunction that they
(18:44):
are susceptible to, they don't have the margin for error
to be a pretty good defensive team. They needed to
be a great defensive team. Like Caleb Martin as great
as he was in this series. Like, I'm watching that
second half and I'm like, Okay, he just pump faked
at Grant Williams, and Grant Williams left his feat and
so he just sidestepped into a wide open three. Okay,
He's dribbling along the baseline. Tatum's got him. Okay, Tatum
(19:06):
calls for a switch. Marcus Smart is standing up out
of a defensive stance and just lets Caleb Martin walk
into a you know, pull up ten foot or on
the baseline. Right at the third quarter buzzer, that's that's
wide open look for an in rhythm shooter. Okay, now
we're in the fourth quarter. Here's a transition possession. Caleb
Martin's dribbling, here's the ball in his hands. He's got
the ball in his hands on the right wing. No
(19:29):
Celtic is guarding him, and he just walks into a
wide open three at the top of the key. Like
the Yeah, there's a reality to the fact that Miami
shot really well and they got some timely contributions from
players that aren't the same type of blue chip prospects
that Boston has. But guess what, you also allowed them
(19:49):
to get comfortable with a defensive identity that you had
all season long, which was a clear level below which
you were last year. And it's the latest example of
listen to what the regular season teaches us as it
pertains to the trends over the course of the regular season. Obviously,
the regular season has a lot of fools gold in it.
But what I always say is, watch defensive ratings. Why
(20:11):
do we watch defensive ratings? We watched defensive ratings because
they are the best indicator of the night in night
out commitment to the defensive end of the floor. Like
I said, it's not a big shock that the Lakers,
as good as they were defensively after the deadline, that
they were also good defensively during the playoff run. It's
not a big shock that Boston, even though they were
still one of the top ten defenses in the league.
(20:31):
I think they finished what fourth or fifth or something
like that, I can't remember exactly, but they were still
top ten defense. But if you look at the defensive rating,
it was eight points worse than it was last year.
So is that not a significant indicator of the fact
that they aren't as dialed in defensively as they were
the previous year. So guess what when the Chips were
down in a big Game seven, they were sloppy on
their switches. They were sloppy in transition defense. They were
(20:52):
sloppy locating shooters. Even in Game six when things were
falling apart, they were sloppy handling those ghost screens with
Duncan Robinson and Jimmy Butler and shooters all over the
floor just in basic swing pass situations because guys aren't
paying attention. They were not the same defensive team and
that's why they weren't able to get to the same
level as an NBA Finals team that was two wins
away from the title as they did last year. Secondly,
(21:14):
the lack of a spammable action. So I talked about
this a lot in the court over the course of
this series because it was part of how Boston got
back into the series was Jason Tatum started to have
some success with cleared side ISOs and attacking a little
bit more from the mid range. But even then, it
wasn't to the extent that it needs to be what
does Jimmy Butler do at this phase of his career
(21:36):
in his early thirties. I think he's actually in his
mid thirties now, But you know, what does Jimmy Butler do.
He's attacking with a live dribble until he gets the
switch that he wants, and then Miami sends all their
dudes over to the other end of the floor and
he just works out of a live dribble ISO on
the clear right side of the floor. That's what they do,
(21:56):
and Miami in a big situation will just spam that.
They'll just run it every time down the floor, and
they know that they're going to get a pretty high
quality shot in every single one of those situations, or
at least a shot that Jimmy Butler's capable of making.
Right with Boston, you know, you'd have a three four
possession sequence like they did in that first half in
(22:17):
Game six where Tatum's working. But then they get into
the fourth quarter and then they just cease to do
that for whatever reason. You know, Jason Tatum doesn't feel
comfortable doing the same thing over and over and over
again from a specific spot on the floor. And you know,
as we look forward with Boston, there's gonna be a
lot of talk about, oh, we need to get them
a better guard. It's like, well, you got Malcolm Brogden
(22:40):
last year, and yeah, obviously he got hurt in this series,
but it didn't seem to solve that specific problem with
their execution. You know, Derek White's another good guard. I mean,
you don't have the resources to get a superstar point guard, right, So, like,
at a certain point, the ceiling of the Celtics is
directly tied to Jason Tatum's development. You know, at this point,
(23:01):
he's one hundred percent a live dribble guy. He's a
live dribble above the break, pick and roll iso try
to create a pull up jump shot or get all
the way to the rim for a layup. That's all
he can do. And he's capable of going down to
the post and making some plays there, but he needs
to get to the point where he can ad like
comfortably sit down on the left block against a smaller
(23:24):
defender and go seven eight possessions in a row, just
either drawn that second defender to get the defense into
rotation or getting closer to the rim for a higher
quality shot. That's the next step for him offensive versatility.
He's turned himself into a very efficient offensive engine from
the standpoint of spamming that high pick and roll stuff.
(23:45):
But that is inherently one of the lower value plays
in the NBA playoffs. Why long jump shots off the dribble,
And I don't mean the short ones like Jimmy Butler's
taking in the post. I mean long jump shots off
the dribble in the NBA playoffs twenty four six footers.
Those are extremely difficult to make when you are fatigued
and you don't have the lift in your legs to
(24:07):
get up into that shot, and when everything you're doing
off the dribble is a or everything you're doing attacking
to the basket is a live dribble from twenty six feet,
there's so much time for help defense to come over.
There's a repeated rotation that the defense can make to
kind of to solve any compromising that takes place. It's
too easy to guard. And that's why unless you're just
(24:29):
the otherworldly best shooter, playmaker, ball handler in the league,
like Steph Curry, you can't spam high pick and roll
the way that Jason Tatum does in these settings, especially
in these rock fight games. These bigger, stronger forwards, the
ones that are really good, the Kawhi's, the Jimmy Butler's,
the Lebron's. What do they do. They get a matchup
they like and they take them close to the basket
(24:52):
with their back to the basket so they can protect
the basketball, and they go to short ten to twelve
foot shots in the lane or in the short corner
that they can make it an extremely high percentage. That's
what Lebron did this entire playoff run. It's what Jimmy
Butler did this entire playoff run. That's what the best
big wings in the league do. And that's what Jason
Tatum has to add over the course of the next
(25:13):
few seasons. He needs to add a reliable back to
the basket bully ball game because he's damn strong, and
he's damn big, and he's an underrated playmaker and he's
got great touch and if he polishes that stuff up,
he's gonna start thriving in these types of games. We're like,
as we look forward for Boston, that's their only hope,
(25:35):
you know, with Jaylen Brown and look, they're in a
tough position because with the way the CBA is structured.
He's gonna make way too much money, you know. But
at the end of the day, like yes, Jalen Brown
completely crumbled in this series, completely lost confidence. His ball
handling is a real problem. All of that is true,
But he's a lot better than he looked. He was
a hell of a lot better just last year in
(25:56):
the playoff run when they were two wins away from
the title. Jalen Brown is still a top fifteen to
twenty player in this league, which means he deserves a
max contract, and you certainly have no method to replace
him with comparable players in the trade market. You're gonna
get seventy five cents on the dollar if you do so, so,
as unfortunate as it is, you have to resign him.
(26:16):
That's the best path forward for Boston is pay everybody,
go forward and hope that Jason Tatum over the coming
years develops into that offensive engine that can thrive in
these late playoff situations. It didn't really come back to
bite them until the Golden State Warriors series last year.
Bit them a little bit earlier this year, but that's
the big problem, not ancillary ball handling, not aggregate ball handling,
(26:40):
the top end ball handling. They need Jason Tatum to
take that next step. We will talk a hell of
a lot more about Boston over the course of this offseason.
Like I said, We're gonna talk a lot about the
NBA Finals over the course of the next few days.
I'm gonna be going our season preview tomorrow in the morning,
Tomorrow afternoon doing an episode with live our resident Nuggets
(27:03):
fan here at the Volume did a bunch of work
with her last year, so you guys who have been
following the show probably remember her. And then on Wednesday,
we're gonna go with the Nerd Sash guys and do
another deep dive into the finals. So we're gonna have
a ton of stuff covering the NBA Finals over the
course of the next two days, and then, like usually,
be going live after Game one on Thursday. As always,
I sincerely appreciate you guys supporting the show and I
will see you tomorrow morning. The Volume
The Volume. All right, welcome to Hoops Tonight here at
the Volume. Happy Monday, everybody. I hope all if you
guys are having a great week so far. We are
live on AMP, so if you're watching on YouTube or
(00:23):
listening on podcast feed, don't forget that, nap. It's the
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Also coverage of the Eastern Conference Finals. Here. Hoops Tonight
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you cash back? Well? The unbroken uh never before happened?
Come back from three to zero series that we were
all kind of expecting to a certain extent, tonight did
(00:44):
not come to fruition as the Miami Heat punk the
Boston Celtics on their home floor to advance to the
NBA Finals. Got a bunch of stuff I want to
dive into. I want to dive into the confidence dynamic
that I think led to Miami's big night tonight, which
I think is super interesting and is informative as we
look forward into future seasons. I want to talk about
(01:06):
the job that Eric Spolstra did to throw Boston off schematically.
I want to look a little bit forward to the finals.
We're not gonna do too deep of a dive because
I will be doing a full finals preview tomorrow morning.
And then at the end, we're gonna talk a little
bit about the Boston Celtics and what went wrong for them,
and if you're a Celtics fan, I have a much
(01:26):
less gloom and doom type of approach to this situation.
I actually am pretty optimistic about their future. So we'll
talk a little bit about them as well. You guys
know the job before we get started. Subscribe to the
Volumes YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of
our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore Jason lt
so you guys don't miss any show announcements. And last
but not least, for whatever reason, you guys miss one
of these videos and you can't get back over to
(01:47):
YouTube to finish, don't forget. You can find them wherever
you get your podcasts. Under Hoops tonight, So confidence in
big games, you know, there's a there was almost like
a we got nothing to lose type of dynamic taking
place in the previous three games, right, like all of
the damage so to speak, to the reputations of the
(02:09):
players involved, to the reputation of the coach involved, and
all of the negative Celtics sentiment was already there after
Game three when you go down three to zero, right,
so it's like, you know, Marcus Martin, Jalen Brown, like,
don't let us win one? Okay, you got one? Okay,
then you want a home game. And then even then
in game six, it's still kind of enoughing to lose
(02:30):
type of situation. The spread is closer, right, Like I think,
I think at the tip off, Boston was only like
a two and a half point favorite or a three
point favorite. You end up barely winning that game. But
in Game seven, suddenly that dynamic shifts. Suddenly you are
the favorite. You're a eight point favorite. After Game five,
(02:51):
Miami still favored to win the series at that point.
It's a totally different dynamic going into this Game seven.
And you guys all probably notice. And there's gonna be
a lot of focus on the ankle injury for Jason Tatum,
and I don't want to underplay it because it certainly
had an impact on what happened to Boston tonight. But
I think that even if Jason Tatum had not sprained
(03:12):
his ankle, a relatively similar outcome would have taken place.
Because regardless of what was going on with Jason Tatum,
from the opening tip of this game, you could see
a giant gap in how comfortable Miami felt under the
weight of the moment compared to the way that Boston felt.
And I think that that trickles down the roster. When
(03:33):
Jimmy is playing as confidently as he was, even after
a couple of bad games, he was carrying himself so
confidently that everyone else on the roster seemed to feel
that way. Kyle Lowry rising confidently into jump shots, you know,
Caleb Martin rising confidently into jump shots. There are you know,
even like difficult shots, like rescue possessions. There's a wild
(03:55):
player at the beginning of the second half, I think
where Max Strus on the left wing just takes and
makes a smothered three, like twenty seven feet from the basket.
But when he's rising into that shot, he's rising into
it like, hey, we got nothing to lose, man, Like
we're that they felt comfortable and confident in that setting.
And I think it's informative from this standpoint of youth
(04:17):
in basketball teams. And we're gonna talk a lot about
Boston and how we look forward and there's gonna be
a ton of conversations surrounding the Celtics in the coming
days and like should we blow it up? And should
Jaylen Brown get shipped off? And should we do this?
And should we do that? And to me, it's like
maybe the star that's in his thirties, that is the
(04:39):
fully formed version of himself that has discovered how to
impact winning on both ends of the floor over the
course of a decade, is just better at this kind
of thing than the other two stars who are, what
a twenty four year old and a twenty six year
old who have been in a lot of big games,
but have glaring weaknesses like Jaylen Brown. For as good
(05:01):
as he is, like he is an and I think
a lot of people talk about him like he can't
dribble at all whatsoever. I think that's overstated a little bit.
He just really struggles with protecting the basketball. And then
as he lost his confidence, he started to mess up
even basic dribble moves, like he fumbled away just a
basic crossover dribble in the fourth quarter of that game.
But you know, he just really struggles to protect the basketball,
(05:22):
and that puts you in an issue against the team
like Miami that is extremely good at forcing turnovers. And
I thought that was one of the many really smart
game plan approaches from Eric Spolstra in this series was
Jimmy Butler is your best defender. You could put him
on Jason Tatum, you could put him on Jaylen Brown.
He put him on Jaylen Brown with the sole purpose
(05:42):
of shattering his confidence and j Brown. Jimmy Butler was
consistently attacking the basketball every single time Jaylen Brown tried
to put the ball on the floor to go around him,
Jimmy's swiping at it from behind and knocking it away.
And maybe Jimmy could do a better job on Jason Tatum,
but he's able to complet lely and utterly shatter the
(06:02):
confidence and ego of Jylen Brown and turn him into
a shell of himself, which was kind of a better
use of resources than just making things tougher on Jason Tatum,
Who's gonna have a lot of success regardless. Right. That
goes all the way down the mark the roster. Caleb
Martin was unbelievable throughout this entire series. You see the
difference between Eric Spolstra and identifying where Caleb Martin has
(06:25):
success and kind of plugging him into those situations and
giving him a defensive assignment that he can handle. Right.
Spend a lot of time in this series on Jason
Tatum kind of pressuring the basketball and getting up under
underneath him. On offense, everything's on the move, a lot
of close out attacking situations, a lot of stuff off
of dribble handoffs, a lot of stuff in transition where
his athleticism can come to the surface. And he was
(06:48):
operating comfortably throughout and he played up to the absolute
peak of his ability, while Jaylen Brown played to the
absolute basement of his ability. That's the advantage of coaching
and game plan and experience in a series. You know
there's gonna be a version of Jaylen Brown when he's
Jimmy Butler's age, where he's the guy that's super comfortable
(07:09):
in every big game and has polished up all of
his significant weaknesses and understands exactly how to attack in
these types of settings. There are gonna be young guys
who win in the NBA. Jannis won a championship at
what twenty six years old, right, And like we saw
Stephan Lebron do it at twenty seven years old. But
there's just not a lot of examples of dudes that
(07:31):
just thrive in huge basketball environments at twenty four years old.
And you know we're gonna talk. We're gonna talk a
little bit about I want to wait to talk about
how Jason Tatum can get better at the in these
particular settings later on, But as we talk about Miami,
I do think that that's something to pay attention to. Here.
Experience won this series. Jimmy Butler and him being the
(07:53):
fully formed version of himself who knew how to consistently
get to places where he felt comfortable, and eric'spo being
in so many of these situations over the years that
he knew all the right buttons to push, that was
what ended up swinging this series. And like I said,
with all the talk about Boston's talent, and you guys know,
I'm the biggest proponent of Boston's talent, I think they've
(08:14):
had the most talented roster in the league over the
last two years. But as we said during that Golden
State Warriors series, that's only one part of what makes
a great basketball team. What makes a great basketball team
is so many things that go beyond talent. And Boston
leaves a lot to be desired in those areas. So
as we're looking forward and projecting in the future, as
(08:34):
we're talking about teams, I think experience going with the
guys that are closer to the absolute, fully formed version
of themselves, those are safer bets in these environments. And
I don't think it's a coincidence that Jimmy was the
best player in the Eastern Conference this year because he's
just the fully formed version of himself and he ran
(08:56):
into a Yiannis that has not figured out yet how
to consistently score over the top of defenses. He ran
into a Julius Randall that completely crumbled under that circumstance.
Jalen Brunson availed himself valiantly, I want to say. And
then that Boston series, you know, Jason Tatum never really
grabbed controls of the offense to the ability that you
would hope a player of his caliber can do. And
(09:17):
Jaylen Brown was a complete shallow himself. And so it's
just it's informative looking forward. I wanted to shout out
Eric Spolsher because obviously with all of these series, as
I've been talking about them, I keep saying at the beginning, like,
I have too much respect for Eric Spolstra to not
think that Miami has a chance to win these series.
And I did think that two particular things. We talked
about it earlier, but putting Jimmy Butler on Jaylen Brown
(09:40):
and just utterly demolishing his confidence in all of their
man demand situations, I think that played a big role.
And then also the zone defense, and the zone defense
didn't just give issues to Jaylen Brown, but it disrupted
the entire team, the entire Boston Celtics team. You know,
I talked about this a lot, but Boston to me,
has a lot of guys that can shoot, but they
(10:00):
don't have any real knockdown shooters. They don't have a
guy that's like, oh my god, you cannot leave this
dude open type of shooter. And the reason why that's
important is like all of those guys that are basically
league average to slightly above average shooters, all of those guys,
they're gonna succumb more to that team wide rhythm type
of stuff. Right when the entire team feels like they
(10:22):
can't make a three, kind of like what we saw,
especially in that first half, you're gonna see You're gonna
see those types of shooters kind of fall into that mess,
whereas like truly elite shooters, when they're missing, they know
the makes are coming and they know that they're gonna
keep confidently shooting because they know their results are eventually
going to come. And what was great about what Spolsure
(10:43):
was doing with that zone is it was really limiting
Boston's ability to get dribble penetration, and so they were
taking a lot of early clock contested threes or like
just swinging the ball around the perimeter and taking a
late clock three or turning it over as a Miami
Heat player are in the passing lanes, and they're never
going to break through when they're not getting higher quality
(11:05):
shots because those are not elite shooters, and so they
need to get really good catch and shoot looks to
bust out of their slump. And so I thought that
was really smart. And Spolstra's two three zone is very
different than a lot of the zones you see around
the league. It's very aggressive on the front, so the
guards on the front part of the zone are picking
up almost out at half court. The wings are coming
(11:28):
out of the corners and trapping in a lot of
cases and helping on ball screens and stuff, and BAM
is super active, and Boston just never did a good
enough job of getting the ball into the teeth of
the zone, getting the ball to the high post where
they could have a player there that can make reads.
Part of that is they just didn't have a player
that felt really comfortable operating down there, and then they
never felt confident enough in their three point shooting and
(11:50):
got in enough of a role there to make that work.
And it's a lesson for Boston in general too. If
you're going to be a super high volume three point
shooting team, you better have some real makers on the team,
like can't leave them open type of guys. If you're
a team that has a bunch of average to slightly
above average shooters, you need to be a team that
only takes threes when they're you know, wide open drive
(12:11):
and kick type of threes, or wide open threes in
pick and roll situations where the guy dies on the screen. Right.
So definitely thought Eric Spolstra pressed all the right buttons
over the course of this series. I said at the
beginning that their best chance to win was Eric Spolstra
coaching or using a schematic approach that would force Boston
into their ugliest offensive tendencies for longer stretches than usual.
(12:36):
That was their best chance. In hell, you just got
a four quarter masterpiece of ball pressure zone defense, forcing turnovers,
making Boston feel uncomfortable, and just crumbling their confidence to
the point where one of the league's best offenses looked
completely inept against a team in Miami that was not
(12:57):
an elite defensive team for the most part of this year.
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a NGI dot com. Looking forward to the finals and
again like I'm just gonna be you know, I'm a
big believer in just being one hundred percent authentic on
this show. I was. I hate that Boston Celtics team.
I talk to you guys a lot about that. In
(14:23):
Game six. They're arrogant, they play a brand of basketball
that I don't particularly like. There's a lot of reasons
why I don't like that team. In a vacuum, I
would have been rooting for Miami, But I was rooting
for Boston to win this series strictly because I do
not think Miami is capable of beating Denver. Now, Miami fans,
(14:44):
you should be thrilled about that, because I picked against
them in all three series and they still won. So
for you guys, if the reverse Jinks is real, then
you're gonna be in good shape. But Denver is different
than the other teams that they faced in that Eastern Conference.
They present all of the same physical advantages that Boston
presented in terms of interior size and perimeter size, but
(15:06):
they do not have the weaknesses that Boston has. This
is a much better offensive team that consistently gets quality
shots rather than going through extended stretches of not doing so.
This is a team that does not rely strictly on
dribble penetration or just knocking down a bunch of ketch
and shoot threes. No, this is a team that has
a behemoth of an offensive engine in Nikola Jokic that
(15:28):
will consistently generate high quality paint looks that are not
you know, driving right at a rim protector, but are
rather little pop shots and floaters in the lane that
Jokic makes it seventy percent. Jamal Murray has the ability
to operate out of the mid range at a much
higher level than any of the players on that Boston
Celtics roster. This is a team that is going to
(15:48):
generate wide open ketch and shoot threes as a part
of their offense, rather than Boston dribbling the ball at
the floor and just jacking up a stupid ass shot
like This team is much more more talented than anybody
they faced in the Eastern Conference without any of the
potential things that Spolstra and Jimmy can psychologically or schematically disrupt.
(16:09):
Denver's a minus three hundred and sixty favorite to win
the series. They're an eight and a half point favorite
to win Game one. I haven't done my series preview yet,
but I think I'm gonna pick Denver in five, for
whatever that's worth, since I've been wrong in every single
Miami series. But I was definitely rooting for Boston, even
though I hate those guys, simply because of the fact
that they would have presented a more like a talent
(16:32):
dynamic with Denver that would have made it a more
interesting series. This Denver team is really really good. I
don't think people even realize how big they are with
Nikola Jokic on the front line, but with Aaron Gordon
being one of the bigger, stronger, most athletic wings in
the league, and Michael Porter Junior, even with the injury
history that he has, he's just tall and he has
long arms, and he's done a really good job in
(16:54):
this playoff run of helping the Nuggets and contested rebound
situations and help defense with the length. He did a
really nice job chasing over the top and applying back
pressure on the Laker guards and getting block shots and
things like that. They're huge on the front line. And
then KCP is one of the best role player two
guards in the league, and Jamal Murray has been playing
(17:15):
at a bona fide superstar level for this entire postseason run.
So like, this is an entirely different challenge. And again
for you Heat fans, like I really like this Miami
Heat team. I kind of like my core basketball personality
is drawn to them and roots for them. But I
just I'm worried that this NBA Finals series could get
(17:35):
really ugly because this is just a whole other level
than what Miami has dealt with in the Eastern Conference.
We're gonna do a deep dive into the NBA Finals
as a preview tomorrow, so keep an eye on the feeds.
It should be up around noon Pacific Standard times, to
keep an eye on the feeds Boston. So there were
two things, in my opinion, that completely undid them in
this series. First of all, the defensi event. And we
(17:59):
talked a lot about this over the course of this series,
because they did have some flashes of really high level
defense in Game four and five and six. But you know,
the biggest fundamental difference between this Celtics team and last
year's Celtics team is last year's Celtics team. I left
every game thinking, oh, my gosh, that's one of the
best defensive teams I've ever seen. I literally said on
(18:21):
my show last year that I think is the best
defense in modern NBA history, especially in the half court.
It was their transition defense that did them in last year.
This year, they went from being a truly elite, generationally
great defense to a pretty good defense. And when their
offense is susceptible to the stretches of dysfunction that they
(18:44):
are susceptible to, they don't have the margin for error
to be a pretty good defensive team. They needed to
be a great defensive team. Like Caleb Martin as great
as he was in this series. Like, I'm watching that
second half and I'm like, Okay, he just pump faked
at Grant Williams, and Grant Williams left his feat and
so he just sidestepped into a wide open three. Okay,
He's dribbling along the baseline. Tatum's got him. Okay, Tatum
(19:06):
calls for a switch. Marcus Smart is standing up out
of a defensive stance and just lets Caleb Martin walk
into a you know, pull up ten foot or on
the baseline. Right at the third quarter buzzer, that's that's
wide open look for an in rhythm shooter. Okay, now
we're in the fourth quarter. Here's a transition possession. Caleb
Martin's dribbling, here's the ball in his hands. He's got
the ball in his hands on the right wing. No
(19:29):
Celtic is guarding him, and he just walks into a
wide open three at the top of the key. Like
the Yeah, there's a reality to the fact that Miami
shot really well and they got some timely contributions from
players that aren't the same type of blue chip prospects
that Boston has. But guess what, you also allowed them
(19:49):
to get comfortable with a defensive identity that you had
all season long, which was a clear level below which
you were last year. And it's the latest example of
listen to what the regular season teaches us as it
pertains to the trends over the course of the regular season. Obviously,
the regular season has a lot of fools gold in it.
But what I always say is, watch defensive ratings. Why
(20:11):
do we watch defensive ratings? We watched defensive ratings because
they are the best indicator of the night in night
out commitment to the defensive end of the floor. Like
I said, it's not a big shock that the Lakers,
as good as they were defensively after the deadline, that
they were also good defensively during the playoff run. It's
not a big shock that Boston, even though they were
still one of the top ten defenses in the league.
(20:31):
I think they finished what fourth or fifth or something
like that, I can't remember exactly, but they were still
top ten defense. But if you look at the defensive rating,
it was eight points worse than it was last year.
So is that not a significant indicator of the fact
that they aren't as dialed in defensively as they were
the previous year. So guess what when the Chips were
down in a big Game seven, they were sloppy on
their switches. They were sloppy in transition defense. They were
(20:52):
sloppy locating shooters. Even in Game six when things were
falling apart, they were sloppy handling those ghost screens with
Duncan Robinson and Jimmy Butler and shooters all over the
floor just in basic swing pass situations because guys aren't
paying attention. They were not the same defensive team and
that's why they weren't able to get to the same
level as an NBA Finals team that was two wins
away from the title as they did last year. Secondly,
(21:14):
the lack of a spammable action. So I talked about
this a lot in the court over the course of
this series because it was part of how Boston got
back into the series was Jason Tatum started to have
some success with cleared side ISOs and attacking a little
bit more from the mid range. But even then, it
wasn't to the extent that it needs to be what
does Jimmy Butler do at this phase of his career
(21:36):
in his early thirties. I think he's actually in his
mid thirties now, But you know, what does Jimmy Butler do.
He's attacking with a live dribble until he gets the
switch that he wants, and then Miami sends all their
dudes over to the other end of the floor and
he just works out of a live dribble ISO on
the clear right side of the floor. That's what they do,
(21:56):
and Miami in a big situation will just spam that.
They'll just run it every time down the floor, and
they know that they're going to get a pretty high
quality shot in every single one of those situations, or
at least a shot that Jimmy Butler's capable of making.
Right with Boston, you know, you'd have a three four
possession sequence like they did in that first half in
(22:17):
Game six where Tatum's working. But then they get into
the fourth quarter and then they just cease to do
that for whatever reason. You know, Jason Tatum doesn't feel
comfortable doing the same thing over and over and over
again from a specific spot on the floor. And you know,
as we look forward with Boston, there's gonna be a
lot of talk about, oh, we need to get them
a better guard. It's like, well, you got Malcolm Brogden
(22:40):
last year, and yeah, obviously he got hurt in this series,
but it didn't seem to solve that specific problem with
their execution. You know, Derek White's another good guard. I mean,
you don't have the resources to get a superstar point guard, right, So, like,
at a certain point, the ceiling of the Celtics is
directly tied to Jason Tatum's development. You know, at this point,
(23:01):
he's one hundred percent a live dribble guy. He's a
live dribble above the break, pick and roll iso try
to create a pull up jump shot or get all
the way to the rim for a layup. That's all
he can do. And he's capable of going down to
the post and making some plays there, but he needs
to get to the point where he can ad like
comfortably sit down on the left block against a smaller
(23:24):
defender and go seven eight possessions in a row, just
either drawn that second defender to get the defense into
rotation or getting closer to the rim for a higher
quality shot. That's the next step for him offensive versatility.
He's turned himself into a very efficient offensive engine from
the standpoint of spamming that high pick and roll stuff.
(23:45):
But that is inherently one of the lower value plays
in the NBA playoffs. Why long jump shots off the dribble,
And I don't mean the short ones like Jimmy Butler's
taking in the post. I mean long jump shots off
the dribble in the NBA playoffs twenty four six footers.
Those are extremely difficult to make when you are fatigued
and you don't have the lift in your legs to
(24:07):
get up into that shot, and when everything you're doing
off the dribble is a or everything you're doing attacking
to the basket is a live dribble from twenty six feet,
there's so much time for help defense to come over.
There's a repeated rotation that the defense can make to
kind of to solve any compromising that takes place. It's
too easy to guard. And that's why unless you're just
(24:29):
the otherworldly best shooter, playmaker, ball handler in the league,
like Steph Curry, you can't spam high pick and roll
the way that Jason Tatum does in these settings, especially
in these rock fight games. These bigger, stronger forwards, the
ones that are really good, the Kawhi's, the Jimmy Butler's,
the Lebron's. What do they do. They get a matchup
they like and they take them close to the basket
(24:52):
with their back to the basket so they can protect
the basketball, and they go to short ten to twelve
foot shots in the lane or in the short corner
that they can make it an extremely high percentage. That's
what Lebron did this entire playoff run. It's what Jimmy
Butler did this entire playoff run. That's what the best
big wings in the league do. And that's what Jason
Tatum has to add over the course of the next
(25:13):
few seasons. He needs to add a reliable back to
the basket bully ball game because he's damn strong, and
he's damn big, and he's an underrated playmaker and he's
got great touch and if he polishes that stuff up,
he's gonna start thriving in these types of games. We're like,
as we look forward for Boston, that's their only hope,
(25:35):
you know, with Jaylen Brown and look, they're in a
tough position because with the way the CBA is structured.
He's gonna make way too much money, you know. But
at the end of the day, like yes, Jalen Brown
completely crumbled in this series, completely lost confidence. His ball
handling is a real problem. All of that is true,
But he's a lot better than he looked. He was
a hell of a lot better just last year in
(25:56):
the playoff run when they were two wins away from
the title. Jalen Brown is still a top fifteen to
twenty player in this league, which means he deserves a
max contract, and you certainly have no method to replace
him with comparable players in the trade market. You're gonna
get seventy five cents on the dollar if you do so, so,
as unfortunate as it is, you have to resign him.
(26:16):
That's the best path forward for Boston is pay everybody,
go forward and hope that Jason Tatum over the coming
years develops into that offensive engine that can thrive in
these late playoff situations. It didn't really come back to
bite them until the Golden State Warriors series last year.
Bit them a little bit earlier this year, but that's
the big problem, not ancillary ball handling, not aggregate ball handling,
(26:40):
the top end ball handling. They need Jason Tatum to
take that next step. We will talk a hell of
a lot more about Boston over the course of this offseason.
Like I said, We're gonna talk a lot about the
NBA Finals over the course of the next few days.
I'm gonna be going our season preview tomorrow in the morning,
Tomorrow afternoon doing an episode with live our resident Nuggets
(27:03):
fan here at the Volume did a bunch of work
with her last year, so you guys who have been
following the show probably remember her. And then on Wednesday,
we're gonna go with the Nerd Sash guys and do
another deep dive into the finals. So we're gonna have
a ton of stuff covering the NBA Finals over the
course of the next two days, and then, like usually,
be going live after Game one on Thursday. As always,
I sincerely appreciate you guys supporting the show and I
will see you tomorrow morning. The Volume
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