Nerd Sesh - Warriors-Rockets Predictions, Does Dame’s return make Bucks favorites? - The Volume

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume. No, Oh my god, how could he do that?

Speaker 2 (00:16):
Watch what Charles Darwin?

Speaker 3 (00:20):
The nerves is where it's at. Welcome everybody back into
nerd Sash. As always, I'm Carson Bravern. Alongside me is
Logan Camden, and as you guys can see, we're back
in our normal setup. We have returned from our trip
to New York, which was a ton of fun. We
did the BDG Combine, as we discussed, We played seven
on seven football with those guys. We did their trivia tournament.

(00:41):
But now Logan, it's time to really lock in for
the playoff grind. You and I are both going to
be chained to our respective radiators in our cages for
the next two plus months, as it should be, because
nothing else matters. We did preview half of the first
round playoff series on our last show. Today, we are
going to talk about the two matchups that have been

(01:02):
set in stone since then, that being the two seed
versus seventh seed in both conferences. We're going to talk
about the fact that Damian Lillard is now expected to
return for the first round series between the Bucks and Pacers.
At some point, we're going to talk about what we
just saw in the play in and we are going
to preview the remaining play in game. So that's all coming.
But we're going to start logan by previewing these full

(01:25):
series that are set, and I want to talk first
about the one that I think is significantly more interesting
and compelling than the other, that being the Houston Rockets
taking on the Golden State Warriors. And even though the
Rockets are the two seed, they're the higher seed here.
I feel like both you and I would view it
as an upset if Houston were to win. I don't
want to speak for you, a'll at least say that's

(01:46):
been my view on this matchup. So what key components
have to go right for Houston if they are going
to win this series.

Speaker 1 (01:55):
I do view the Rockets in the underdog a little
bit because of the experience factor here for Houston. You know,
Golden State's got three guys who are tried and truin
the playoffs, have cut their teeth a lot on the
biggest stages, that being Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Raymond Green,
three legends of the game. But more importantly, it's Houston's

(02:16):
inability to consistently turn out good offensive results This is
the twenty second ranked half court offense in basketball, and
that's my biggest concern about this team. But I do
think they have real advantages against teams in this playoff
field and against the Golden State Warriors in this first
round matchup.

Speaker 2 (02:33):
First, I think you have to start.

Speaker 1 (02:35):
With just the overwhelming size and athleticism advantage that Houston
has basically against everybody this year. This is one of
the best rebounding teams in basketball. They ranked number one
in rebounds per game and rebound rate, and they ranked
number one in offensive rebounds per game and offensive rebound rate.

Speaker 2 (02:52):
And what does that do.

Speaker 1 (02:54):
It means that Houston is just better at generating extra
possessions than any other team in basketball. They're also number
one one in field goal attempts per game. That's a
real advantage. Like, I don't want to undersell that aspect
of Houston. That's been the reason that they're the two seed. Like,
this is an elite defense, and this is an elite
group at generating extra possessions. Along with that, I think
the other key to this series is how much is

(03:16):
Houston going to really be able to disrupt Steph Curry.
They were fourth and defensive rating in the regular season,
and if you harken back to this last matchup that
we saw between these two teams, they really stifled Steph.
Steph had three points on one of ten from the
field in one of eight from deep and I would
say that I think Houston probably has the best perimeter

(03:37):
personnel of anybody to guard Steph. Curry, Amen Thompson, Dylan Brooks,
and Fred Van Vliet.

Speaker 2 (03:43):
They're all Hounds.

Speaker 1 (03:45):
I mean, if you're looking even further, like Tarry Eason,
some of the big double big lineups that this team
is gonna be able to try it out with Steven
Adams or Alpern Sengon. I think it's vitally important that
they shut down Steph and limit his impact as much
as possible. And if they check both of those boxes, Carson,
I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility

(04:05):
that Houston has a really good chance at winning this series.
Like if you can hold step in check and you
can stick to your identity really strong defense, dominate the glass,
like Houston really isn't that far away from being able
to win this series. I think it's going to be
really close. I do worry about this team generating offense.
But those are two strengths that I think Houston really

(04:26):
has going into this playoff series.

Speaker 3 (04:29):
I think that those are the exact two things that
you have to highlight because they're a super unconventional playoff team,
but especially they're a super unconventional two seed because you
mentioned the half court offensive issues they have, the lack
of that, like one really high end offensive creator, and
really just the lack of high end aggregate offensive skill

(04:50):
that they have. Those have been things that have concerned
me about this team all year long. But where are
they excellent? They are excellent on the glass. They are
a legitimately historic offensive rebounding team, and they are an
excellent defensive team, and specifically against the Warriors, a team
that is going to play a ton of small ball,
you can see that differential on the glass being hugely

(05:12):
in Houston's favor. The Warriors are also a team that
plays small and so they're pretty quick, but they're not
a super athletic team, and they are very, very dependent
on the offensive creation, specifically of Steph Curry, who was
going to be facing overwhelming defensive attention from a team
that has a bunch of insane athletes who play with

(05:32):
their heads on fire every minute that they're out there
on the floor. So first key for Houston to win
this is how much can they dominate the glass, because
we know that they are going to win that battle.
In the three games that steph played against Houston this year,
the Dubs were only minus ten on the glass in total.
That's really not too bad when you think about the
potential gap between these teams on the glass in this series.

(05:55):
But interestingly, I think in the Warriors' most recent game,
their play and went over the Grizzlies, you saw something
that's relevant for their potential matchup against Houston. A team
that is so great on the glass that could deploy
some of those double big lineups as you mentioned, because
when Zach Edy was on the floor for the Grizzlies
against the Warriors, I saw this courtesy of Databaller, which

(06:17):
is a phenomenal website phenomenal follow on Twitter. In those minutes,
the Grizzlies grabbed forty five percent of their own misses
and they grabbed seventy nine percent of the Warriors missus.
The Grizzlies actually rebounded really poorly when Edie was off
the floor, but when the Grizzlies went mostly double big,
or when they just had their one massive center on
the floor, Memphis really dominated the rebounding differential. And just

(06:42):
speaking specifically to that game and the edy discourse after,
there were a bunch of people who were clowning on
him and saying he sucks, I think people can underestimate
just how valuable it is to be absolutely massive.

Speaker 1 (06:53):
Shit doesn't that shit doesn't pop up in the box score.
And if you go to one of these websites like
Carson's talking about, like data ball that it'll give you
the specifically if you're looking for it, if you go
offense or defense, it will tell you how much better
that team rebounds the ball. I don't have it off
the top of my head. I can pull it up
here in a minute, but I believe it's ridiculous. The
Grizzlies rebound rate offensively and in total is like ten

(07:15):
percent higher with Edie on the floor.

Speaker 2 (07:17):
And so while his raw.

Speaker 1 (07:19):
Rebounding numbers may not reflect his complete impact on the game, well.

Speaker 3 (07:23):
He did also have seventeen rebounds in that game, and
it was eighteen points. It was just ugly, right, I mean,
there were some bad moments with his hands. His finishing
was bad in that specific game, but when you can
completely dominate the glass single handedly, that's a really valuable thing.
And the Rockets as a team are better at that
than anybody else. And they have the best individual rebounder

(07:44):
in the sport in my opinion, in Steven Adams, who
is effectively just a specialist at this point in his career,
being so excellent at that one trade. And I think
that we'll get to some more of the specifics with
his minutes. How do they deploy him later? But that's
a big key for Houston. How convincingly do they win
on the glass, and then how much can they slow
down the Warriors offense and specifically how much can they

(08:05):
make life hell on Steph Curry. I saw a phenomenal
stat tweeted out by Ben Pfeiffer the other day shout
out to him in the forty one possessions that Steph
Curry was defended by a men Thompson. This season, he
averaged nine point one points per seventy five possessions, nine assists,
and he had a true shooting percentage of thirty one.

(08:26):
So I do think that you use a men as
the primary defender on Steph in this series. Fred van
Vliet has also done a very good job, but a
men is just a different level of overwhelming athlete his
size and so insane. He's one of the best point
of attack defenders on the planet. He has a non
stop motor. He is going to constantly be hounding Steph
off ball and then he is going to be incredibly

(08:48):
difficult for Steph to separate from it all difficult to
shoot over top of him. Like, he is just their
best defensive player, and I think that he should be
stuck to Steph like glue for the most part. Although
obviously the Rockets are going to switch a lot as well,
and that's another advantage that they have. They can switch
one through four against Steph, and you're getting Van Vliet
on him, You're getting Dylan Brooks on him. When those

(09:11):
guys come on the floor, you're gonna get some Tarry
Easton possessions, and like, that's a lot of really good
defensive players on the wings. So Steph has really struggled
against the Rockets this year. You mentioned the three point
game obviously is the one that stands out first, but
over their three meetings, he's averaged sixteen points per game
on fifty one percent true shooting, and the Warriors had
a one to zero one offensive rating in those games.

(09:35):
So you know the Rockets are going to harass him.
They are going to be super physical off ball, and
guess what, they're probably gonna get away with that because
that's just the reality of how Steph is officiated. It's
not fair, but that's the way that it is. And
this is a team that is super athletic, that is
super physical. They are going to do their best to
really punish him, beat him up physically, and then like

(09:57):
I said, they can switch one through four and when
you bring the center into the action, they're just gonna
blitz the shit out of him. That's what we saw
in the last game, and it's force the ball out
of Steph's hands, try to force them into some turnovers,
and just make anybody else beat you. So, considering how
difficult his matchup is and considering how singularly I expect

(10:18):
the Rockets to be focused on stopping Steph as a
scorer and making his other teammates make shots and make decisions.
I don't see this as a super big scoring series
for Steph. I think he'll give you twenty three to
twenty five points per game, but I'm not anticipating the
twenty eight points per game on sixty six percent true
shooting guy that he's been since Jimmy joined the team.

(10:41):
I think he's going to be a playmaker first in
this matchup, and that's why the performance of his teammates
offensively taking advantage of four on threes, capitalizing on steph
drawing so much attention and stepping up is going to
be absolutely massive. That's a collective thing. But there's one
guy who I look at specifically for the Warriors logan
and I think he has to be phenomenal, and that's

(11:03):
Jimmy Butler.

Speaker 2 (11:05):
Yeah, before we get.

Speaker 1 (11:06):
Into Jimmy real quick, I want to talk about this
rebounding thing, because I do I completely agree with you
with the offensive points. How are you gonna stagger these minutes?
What are you gonna do with the four and five
spot with dre post in looney?

Speaker 2 (11:20):
Like, how do you strike that balance?

Speaker 1 (11:22):
And what are you looking for like adjustment wise, like
depending on the results that you get for the rest
of the series.

Speaker 3 (11:29):
I think there are a bunch of interesting decisions that
the Warriors have to make with their rotations. Specifically when
it comes to how do they hang in there physically
and on the glass, I think Looney has to match
Steven Adams minutes like otherwise I just think the Warriors
are getting absolutely decimated on the glass. Steven Adams, as
I mentioned, is having a historic offensive rebounding season. When

(11:52):
he is on the floor without Shngoon, the Rockets grab
forty two percent of their own misses. He alone grabs
seven offfensive rebounds per thirty six minutes, I think, but
his impact goes so far beyond that because he just
eats up so much space with box outs. He's just
a one of a kind weapon on the offensive glass.
I don't think that you can even be competitive on

(12:16):
the glass in his minutes without having another big guy. Looney, right,
isn't as big, he isn't as strong as Steven Adams,
but he's another guy who They're both pretty groundbound, but
they just have phenomenal instincts for the ball. They know
where to be, they use their strength really well. They're
very good in terms of positioning themselves on the glass.
So I think that they're gonna match Adams minutes with

(12:39):
Looney and then the really interesting thing is how much
do we see the Rockets double big lineups in how
do the Warriors try to counter that? Because in the
double big minutes that Shengun Adams out there together, the
Rockets grab forty seven percent of their own misses. Those
double big lineups have a plus thirty three net rating.

(13:00):
That's only in one hundred and fifty minutes. But they
have just been completely dominant on both sides the ball.
The challenge at that point is when you have two
bigs on the floor, two true bigs. I don't know
how much you can go to that when Steph Curry
is on the floor, just because having two guys who
are slower footed obviously to different extents, right, Shengun is

(13:23):
quicker on his feet than Steven Adams, but still is
not somebody who you're comfortable switching. Is not somebody who
you want guarding in space. A lot like just with
the level of shooting that you get from Steph, the
ability of this offense to quickly attack the advantages that
he creates, I think that at that point, the speed
advantage for the Warriors and the shooting and just specifically

(13:43):
Steph probably makes it difficult for the Rockets to play
those double big lineups. What I would really try to
do if I'm Houston is squeeze a lot of those
double big minutes in when Steph is off the floor.
And that's what they did in the last meeting between
these two teams, because then I'm not nearly as worried
about it defensively. I actually think it's a really good
look defensively against the lineup that has less creation, that

(14:07):
has less shooting, and that doesn't have that one of
a kind weapon who just makes you guard so much
space like Steph Curry. And I think they'll probably try
the double big looks for maybe even more minutes than that,
Like maybe they will try it when Steph is on
the floor, just because it's been so effective for them.
But I would be more inclined to say, pick your
spots with it, try to take advantage of some of

(14:29):
those less offensively skilled lineups when you feel like you're
not worried about the limitations of going double big. And
that could be a real strength of Houston's in this series.

Speaker 1 (14:38):
I think it could too, And it's not just limited
to those guys either, Right. The thing that I think
makes Houston so special is is like a man is
an elite positional rebounder. Jabari Smith Junior, you know, is
a solid rebounder too. Like there's just like throughout the
lineup if it's Tory Eason. However, many deep like Houston's
always with, you know, ninety percent of their lineups in

(14:59):
this series, are going to have that athletic and size.

Speaker 2 (15:02):
Advantage on the floor.

Speaker 1 (15:05):
But I do think the Warriors offensive supporting cast is
gonna have to pull their weight, and I think guys
are gonna have to shoot well in non Steph minutes.
I think guys are gonna have to shoot the lights
out period when Steph's on the floor, because you're mentioning
him drawing all these double teams.

Speaker 2 (15:18):
I don't think that's something that's just gonna.

Speaker 1 (15:19):
Stop in this series, which means Pods has got to
be butter from Deep. Moody has got to be butter
from deep. Buddy healed good in transition, has got to
be hitting his shots and has to play smart basketball.
But the guy that it's gonna lay on the shoulders
the largest, as you mentioned, it's Jimmy Butler, and I
believe in playoff Jimmy, I.

Speaker 2 (15:39):
Ranked Jimmy in my top twenty.

Speaker 1 (15:40):
Of NBA players for the playoffs before we started, and
I'm very, very encouraged by what we've seen in the
two most important Warriors games recently against the Clippers and
against Memphis. Against Memphis, Jimmy went for thirty eight points.
He had eighteen free throw attempts. And this is gonna
sound crazy right now, I'm about to say, Jimmy has

(16:01):
to be even more aggressive because even now, late in
that game and throughout passing up shots at the rim,
I'm gonna I'm going to throw my remote through the
TV if I see Jimmy do that during this series,
Like that's gonna drive me crazy. Jimmy's got to be
even more aggressive, Like I need this take over Jimmy.
He's got to feel the moment and he's got to

(16:22):
take over the thing that I'm worried about, though, Carson,
I don't. It's not gonna be easy against Houston because
they have such elite perimeter personnel and the start difference.
I thought Memphis defended him really, really poorly in the
play in and what I mean by that is one
a lot of minutes they were putting Edie on Jimmy

(16:43):
and they were sagging off. And I know that Jimmy
traditionally is not a guy you're okay with letting him
take a few three pointers, right, because that's not his
bread and butter. I don't think Houston should give Jimmy
any cushion at all. I'm not saying defend him like
Steph Curry, but don't give him a lane because I
think guy like Jimmy, if you give him that cushion
off ball, I think he's gonna cook you. You give

(17:04):
him a little bit of space to work with, that's
just advantage Jimmy. And I think Houston has got really
really good personnel.

Speaker 2 (17:11):
He was right.

Speaker 1 (17:12):
Even if you have a men on Steph most of
the series, Jabari Smith is still gonna be out there, right,
Dylan Brooks is still gonna be out there. It's not
gonna be easy, but Jimmy's got to be aggressive.

Speaker 2 (17:21):
Man.

Speaker 1 (17:22):
Like the last game that I was talking about in
the regular season against Houston, Jimmy had seven shots. That
can't happen in a single game in this series. I
need Jimmy shooting fifteen to twenty times at a minimum
of night. And like I said, I need him to
feel the gravity of the moments. If Steph's having an
off night, he can't be afraid to take over. Like

(17:42):
I know Jimmy's quote and it was awesome, and I'm
so glad that Jimmy appreciates his situation. He said after
the thirty eight piece, I got my Batman. I can
play Robin. There are going to be games in this
Sea series where Jimmy's gotta be Batman. He can't take
that back seat. And it's vitally important that they got
Jimmy at the deadline because I would not have given

(18:03):
the Dubs a prayer in this series if they didn't
have him. But now that they've got him on the roster,
it's time for playoff Jimmy to show up and pull
his weight. If that doesn't happen, Carson, I'd say this
is an easy Houston victory. But I believe in playoff Jimmy,
and I think we're gonna get a good series out
of him.

Speaker 3 (18:21):
There have been some really good indicators as of late
for Jimmy still being able to flip that switch man
and take his game up a level when it comes
to the playoffs. He has been so committed to doing
whatever he can to fit in with the Warriors right
to not step on any toes, to be just like
the ultimate team guy fitting into this motion system. But

(18:44):
we've been saying like, at some point, Jimmy, you have
to dial up that aggression. This team is gonna need it.
They are especially going to need it in this matchup
when you're expecting Steph to be blitzed so much out
of pick and roll and you know that you're gonna
have those four on threes, Your next best offensive player
has to be a guy who can capitalize on that.
Your next best offensive player has to be able to

(19:04):
carry the load in the non Steph minutes and really
step up and be aggressive there. Because there's just a
lot of offensively limited players on this team, and there's
a lot of guys who tend to be passive, and
that's why they need Jimmy to step up it be
that consistent second scoring presence you mentioned just how great
he's been in the last couple of games. Also in

(19:25):
the minutes he's on the floor without Steph Curry. This season,
per seventy five possessions, he averages over twenty five points,
seven and a half assists on sixty four percent true
shooting with a very low turnover rate, gets to the
line at an obscene rate in those minutes, and the
Warriors have actually been really good with Jimmy on the
floor and Steph off, So I'm super encouraged by seeing

(19:47):
him feel that sort of playoff atmosphere, feel that these
have been two games that the Warriors desperately needed to
win against the Clippers and the Grizzlies, and show you
that he can get to that level as a score.
That I think is a huge reason why I am
confident in the Warriors in this series. But it's obviously
not just Jimmy, like you said, like Moody and Pods

(20:07):
both really have to make shots. Pods has been shooting
the shit out of the ball for half the year now.
He's been a forty plus percent guy from deep, so
that is really good. But they have to be smart
about attacking these four on threes and they have to
take care of the basketball. That was a big problem
for the Warriors in their last meeting against the Rockets.
They had twenty turnovers in that game, and obviously that

(20:29):
then kick starts the Rockets transition offense where they're more
effective than they are in the half court. They're this
really young, athletic, energetic team. You don't want to give
them those chances. All this being said, I think it's
a really interesting challenge for the Warriors on the offensive
end what the Rockets present. I also think the Warriors

(20:49):
defense can really slow down that Rockets offense. Like, I
think this is pretty clearly the series that is going
to be the nastiest, the most defense, probably the lowest scoring,
which you don't often think of when you have a
Steph Curry led team. But the Rockets have some real
offensive limitations, right you mentioned how low they rank as

(21:10):
a half court offense. They're one of the worst shooting
teams in basketball bottom ten and both three pointers made
and three point percentage, and they're very efficient inside the arc.
Like they really really specifically rely on their ability to
dominate defensively and then offensively to produce decent efficiency by
just giving themselves so many second chances on any one possession.

(21:33):
But the spacing for them is gonna be a bit rough,
and basically all of their key offensive players have really
struggled in this matchup. Like I mentioned how rough steps
numbers have been against the Rockets. You look at all
the key Rockets. Jalen Green versus the Warriors this year
averaged twelve point six points per game on thirty nine

(21:53):
percent true shooting. He's been playing some pretty good basketball
as of late, but when it comes to him having
to take on this sort of offensive role, I have
very little confidence in him versus a Warriors defense. With
this sort of speed, with this sort of activity, with
this sort of collective defensive IQ, he's really struggled. Shngoon

(22:15):
versus the Warriors seventeen point four points per game on
fifty one percent true shooting. Not very good scoring production,
really bad efficiency. Dre does a phenomenal job on him
as such an excellent post defender with his strength. Now,
Shangun can bring you a lot of value if you
can't keep him off the glass. But I think this
is going to be a difficult matchup for him to

(22:36):
create one on one scoring opportunities for himself. My beloved
Amen Thompson has been okay against the Warriors. Gives you
twelve eight and four on fifty percent true shooting. You
know that on ball they are going to give him
cushion and they are going to try to force him
into taking some more of those floater range shots and
short mid range shots, which he's actually been quite solid

(22:58):
on this year, but obviously is at his best to
get to the rim, and he's incredibly difficult to keep
away from the rim even if you do play off him,
because he's just a one of one kind of athlete.
So I actually think he'll probably do better compared to
his own standard offensively than a couple of the other
guys off ball. You know that they're going to roam
off of him, and I don't want to see him

(23:20):
try to punish them for that with shooting. I want
to see him if he can draw a close out
attacking them, But realistically, they probably won't be closing out
on him much. They're gonna dare him to shoot, and
so he's gonna have to find a way to still
get to the rim on ball, to be excellent in transition,
and to still find those opportunities as a cutter and
as an offensive rebounder to be a productive offensive player.

(23:44):
And Fred van Vliet has just been terrible versus the Warriors,
under nine points per game on thirty three percent true
shooting and just a super erratic score of the basketball
at this point very inefficient. So that's the thing. The
Rockets have a great defense, and the Warriors are very
specifically reliant on a couple of offensive players to really

(24:05):
bring jewice for them. At the same time, the Rockets
are just a very limited offense, and the Warriors have
been number one in defensive ratings since Jimmy Butler joined
the team. They are number one, I believe in opponent
turnovers forced since Jimmy Butler joined the team, and I
do think that their personnel is very well set up
to keep the Rockets from putting the ball in the

(24:27):
basket efficiently. Really, the challenge is when they go small,
can they keep them off the glass? And that's going
to be really hard, But I think in totality they
can slow down the Rockets offense more than vice versa.

Speaker 1 (24:41):
I think the most important thing is, like you mentioned earlier,
not letting these guys get ahead of steam and be
able to get out on the break and transition. If
you can keep it in the half court, I'm pretty confident.
In Golden State, Carson, there are there's one Houston Rocket
that shot over thirty six percent from deep Dylan Brooks

(25:02):
on three or more attempts a game. Your best shooter's
Dylan Brooks, and so look, I know Dylan Brooks has
had a really good year, but it's not just a
Men Thompson. To me. There's a lot of guys that
I would be comfortable with helping off of. And that's
kind of what I would try to do if I
have Golden State swarm their ball handlers, try to force turnovers,
try to trap guys. And I'm not saying let Houston

(25:25):
just shoot open threes, but I'm okay with conceding a
lot of looks to a lot of players here. If
it's a Men Thompson, if it's Seng Goon, if it's
Steven Adams, there's just an there's not a lot of
floor spacers here. And hell, even Dylan Brooks, man, Dylan Brooks,
doesn't scare me.

Speaker 2 (25:42):
Look br if Dylan.

Speaker 1 (25:43):
If Dylan shoots thirty eight percent in this series, like,
shout out Dylan Brooks. But I know his track record,
and I'm kind of expecting a little bit of a
meltdown here in this series because that's what he's shown
us in the playoffs.

Speaker 2 (25:54):
But by and large, I'd.

Speaker 1 (25:57):
Be comfortable leaving these shooters and gambling a little, but
more if I was Golden State on defense like they
just Houston doesn't scare me with their spacing, and I
think that when you have two genius defenders like Dray
and Jimmy, they can exploit that and use that to
their advantage better than most teams. But like you mentioned,
I think the biggest challenge is just going to be

(26:18):
limiting those extra possessions, because that's how Houston has been
able to mitigate a lot of their skill issues this season.

Speaker 3 (26:24):
It's their biggest strength offensively by far. What do you
think the Warriors do with their rotations in this series?
Because we talked about how do you have to try
to deal with the Steven Adams problem matching Loony's minutes
with his, But there are a lot of other questions
besides that, Like Jonathan Kaminga has fallen out of the

(26:45):
rotation for this team in the last couple of games.
Does he come back into the mix? Who do you
think should be playing outside of the core guys who
obviously are going to get their big minutes for the Warriors.

Speaker 1 (26:55):
I don't know about Kaminga, So that's why Curry, Dre,
Jimmy right, those guys are gonna get all the burn pods.
Moody per after that, Like you mentioned, I'm giving Looney
it's on a burn with Steven Adams. Maybe I don't
even play Looney outside of Steven Adams minutes, but I'm
matching those.

Speaker 2 (27:16):
I'm giving Quinton Post some burn. I just want to
see what he can give me.

Speaker 1 (27:20):
And the reason I say that is I think the
Post could have a big series in the sense that
if he's matched up with an Adams or a Sengoon,
Post just changes the geometry of the Warriors offense a
little bit where you actually have that legitimate spacer and
he's not just a spacer in.

Speaker 2 (27:35):
The half court.

Speaker 1 (27:36):
I really like Quinton Post is a shooter as a
trailer in transition as well, and so I would just
kind of feel Posts minutes out. And what I mean
by that is I give him some burn in the
early second quarter if he hits two threes, if he
hits three threes and he's having a good night, I'll
leave him out there and I'll give him some more burn.
If he's not, maybe I play him less. And I

(27:57):
looked to Dre at small ball, or I look to Looney,
But I think Post could have a really good series
just in how he contrasts the other bigs. For Houston,
those guys don't really want to get out of the
pain a ton, and I think that could be a
really interesting calenter, especially if he's hitting threes. More importantly,
Canty battle on the glass, because if he's getting beat there,
I just don't think you can play him.

Speaker 2 (28:16):
But I like what I've.

Speaker 1 (28:17):
Seen from Post just in terms of positioning defensive Fiel.
He's not like a really high end rim protector or
anything like that. He's not a good rim protector, but
he's normally in the right position where he can at
least contest shots. So I'm giving Post some burn. I
think you have to play Buddy just because of offensive skill.

(28:38):
Like Buddy's frustrating, but I think you need his shooting.
I don't know what to do with Kamena Man. Kaminga
can have his games, but if I'm Houston, he's the
guy that I'm leaving alone and like I'm daring to
shoot and I'm playing off of.

Speaker 2 (28:55):
I don't know what to do with Kamena Man. I honestly,
I would.

Speaker 1 (28:58):
Put him more in the Post category where I give
him a little bit of burn and just like feel
his minutes out and see what he's giving me. But Kaminga,
he's not really a big factor in this series. I
don't think they need him as much as they need
the other role players.

Speaker 3 (29:12):
It's a tricky decision. I think you have to at
least try Kaminga in this series for ten to fifteen
minutes a night in the early games and see how
it goes. Because I have no problem with him not
playing at all in certain matchups. I've been good with
him getting these a couple of dnps playing the boy.

Speaker 2 (29:32):
Gi Santo's over Kamingo.

Speaker 1 (29:34):
Bro.

Speaker 3 (29:34):
Listen, brother, Hey are you looking at my notes over here?
I love Gi Santos. I think that he should play
a decent amount in this series. I do think it's
important to note, though, that Kaminga has been really good
versus Houston. It's been his best matchup this year. He's
given him twenty one points and seven rebounds a game
on fifty nine percent true shooting. And it is valuable

(29:55):
to have somebody against such an elite defense who can
give the bench a little bit of juice offensively, someone
who can match Houston's youth and athleticism out there. The
challenge is does he have the feel to play effectively
in those minutes where Steph is going to be drawing

(30:16):
so much defensive attention and it's about making good quick
decisions with an advantage like he hasn't consistently shown an
ability to do that. And then you think, Okay, he
brings the juice in the bench minutes, but really it's Jimmy.
You're expecting to carry those loads in the non step
minutes and step up and Kaminga and Jimmy just do
not compliment each other on the basketball court. So if

(30:41):
he ends up being a DNP, I'm fine with it,
I really am. But I do think that I would
give him a shot because there are some other guys
who have been playing more who, like I also have
my issues with. Like the thing with Kaminga is expectations
for some people are so high and he's consistently failed
to live up to them that then you think, oh,
I'm so frustrated he shouldn't play. But then there are

(31:02):
other guys like Gary Payton the second who I just
don't love playing twenty minutes a game. And this is
a specific matchup where I just think you need offensive
juice where you can get it. And GP two played
pretty well against Houston the last game, and like is
somebody who has really good instincts as a cutter, but
he can be so limited offensively. He can be so tentative,

(31:23):
and rightfully so, because the shooting obviously is a big limitation.
He's a good finisher, but he's still a small guard.
He's not a comfortable ball handler. Like those are the
sort of minutes where I would say, Okay, I get
it if you trust GP two, because you know that
he's gonna mostly make the right decisions, play hard, play
smarter than Kaminga. But maybe just because of the ability

(31:46):
at least give Kaminga a shot and you can have
a short leash man. I'm not a Kaminga guy. I've
been very open about that for years. I thought they
should have traded him a long long time ago. And
I just don't think that he is a good fit
for the Warriors. I don't think that in terms of scheme,
in terms of his readiness to really play winning basketball,
but especially in a system that is so much about motion,

(32:07):
making quick decisions, et cetera. It's just not a good
fit and he should be gone after this year. But
I don't know if he should start out the series
getting dnps like he has been.

Speaker 1 (32:16):
I think those are the three guys battling for or
maybe four if you want to throw Buddy into the mix,
battling for those last wing minutes. If it's GP, Buddy, Santos,
and Kaminga ride the guy who's playing the best.

Speaker 2 (32:28):
But the rest of the guys I'm comfortable with playing.
You know, I don't mind GPGP normally.

Speaker 1 (32:33):
Just has such good instincts in basketball field. But you
wonder about in this matchup specifically, just having a guy
who's you know more Ah, yeah, if it's more worthwhile
having a guy like Kaminga out there just because he
matches the physical profile. But I don't know, Man, I
throw each of those guys, all the four guys that

(32:54):
I mentioned some some wing minutes in play who's playing
the best?

Speaker 3 (32:59):
Yeah, I don't really have a problem with that philosophy,
because like, I have mixed feelings about Buddy minutes too,
because it's like, you want his shooting on the floor
so badly in this matchup, but also he makes bad
decisions at a level that's like arguably comparable to Kaminga, Like,
those are two guys who are just basketball players. Like, yeah,

(33:20):
that's why I'm just thinking, Man, give me more Gui Santos,
because Gee is big, He's athletic, he's a pretty good rebounder.
We're talking about how timidle it Is plays his ass
off like just a limitless ball of energy and shoots
the ball decently well. Is a pretty solid pass or
smart basketball player, Like I think that he checks the

(33:42):
most boxes of what they need from just like that
sort of multifaceted big forward contributor in this matchup. So
I'd like to see him play more than GP two.
I have super mixed feelings about the kaminga minutes. I
think you give him a shot with a tight leash,

(34:02):
And like to be clear, when I say a shot,
I'm not talking about twenty plus min minutes. You just
can't trust him to do that in a playoff run.
He's not ready, and I just don't think is part
of the equation for the Warriors at this point, like
a significant part of it. But yeah, ten fifteen minutes,
I think you give him a shot. So what's your

(34:24):
official prediction here, Logan.

Speaker 1 (34:26):
I can definitely see this series going the distance. That
being said, I'm gonna bet on the more experienced team,
the team with the better offense, and frankly the team
with the two best offensive players I think in this series.
So I'm gonna take the Warriors in six.

Speaker 2 (34:43):
But like I said, I could definitely see this going
the distance.

Speaker 1 (34:46):
And look, if Houston can swallow up Steph Curry, I
mean that gives them a real chance at winning this series.
I'm not gonna say that they don't, so I think
they have an opportunity here.

Speaker 2 (34:57):
But I'm gonna take the Dubs in six and say
that they issh it on their home floor.

Speaker 3 (35:02):
I do think the Rockets have a chance to win
this series, Like if they can just bludgeon the Warriors
physically and dominate that battle on the glass, and like
you said, really keep Steph in check and if guys
around him just aren't making enough shots, like you can
see that path. But what really gives me the confidence

(35:22):
to pick the Warriors to win this series, like what
puts me over the top because I would have picked
them either way. But I was debating picking this to
go seven because it feels kind of weird to not
have any of these series out West going seven, because
I think a number of them are so close. But
it's this version of Jimmy that we've seen over the
last couple of games, Like I'm in, I do think
that he still is a playoff riser Logan. I know

(35:45):
you've been very adamant about him really being able to
scale up that scoring volume. I've seen enough over these
last couple of games when he's needed to do it
to be more confident in his ability to do that.
And I just think the Rockets offense is going to
look really ugly against a really good Warriors defense. So
I do think that we are in for a fight.
I think we're in for a war. I think there's

(36:06):
gonna be beef in this series. We've got Dylan Brooks
and we've got Dre on the floor. We've got a
man A man was a violent child, Logan. I don't
know if you've heard have you seen any of those
edits of a men just hitting people and doing awesome shit.
It's pretty funny. Some of them start with us are
being asked like did a men ever get into trouble
as a kid? And he goes, A man was an

(36:27):
aggressive child. I love him man, that's my guy. So
it's gonna be personal. Man, It's gonna be a hell
of a first round series. I think.

Speaker 2 (36:37):
Who gets ejected the most in this series?

Speaker 3 (36:42):
I hope nobody gets ejected multiple times, But if I.

Speaker 1 (36:46):
Had to Dylan Brooks over one and a half games, who,
I don't.

Speaker 3 (36:54):
Know if I can go there. My honest opinion, there's
one game in this series or both Dylan Brooks and
Raymond get ejected. I think it's a mutual escalation. I
think they're both John and I think that they both
get thrown out. I would not expect to see anything
more than that. But like, if you were to set
the line for which series is most likely to have
an ejection, this has got to be number one. Like

(37:15):
maybe you look at Nick Pistons because the Pistons have
that kind of nasty vibe to him as well Timberwolves Lakers.
Maybe I could see a Rudy Luca incident. But this
feels like the one where you have a number of
characters and you're just expecting that style of basketball. Man,
Because I'm telling you, Steph is gonna get roughed up.
I think that he pulls through enough as one of

(37:38):
the greatest offensive players we've ever seen, who is just
so unbelievably good, and I think the offense around him
and especially Jimmy do enough to win this series. The

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Speaker 3 (40:00):
Let's talk about the two to seven matchup in the
other conference logan, which is just not nearly as interesting
Celtic's Magic. What's your prediction here, I think we can
basically cut to it. I mean, there's not a lot
of keys to this one. In my opinion.

Speaker 1 (40:13):
Yeah, I'm going to take the Celtics in five. And
I mean, my biggest question about Orlando extending this series
because I have zero expectation at full health or close
to full health at Boston whatever lose this, So Cam
the magic offense keep up with Boston is really my
biggest question.

Speaker 2 (40:30):
This is the twenty seventh half court offense.

Speaker 3 (40:32):
I'll just answer that one.

Speaker 2 (40:33):
Nope, yeah, I agree. You know, I'm pretty much aligned
there with you, bro.

Speaker 1 (40:37):
This is the twenty seventh a half court offense in basketball,
and specifically the reason that Boston poses, you know, such
a challenge.

Speaker 2 (40:47):
For Orlando really is one.

Speaker 1 (40:49):
I mean, there are a great defense as is, but
it really is the size that Boston has because Orlando's
a jumbo sized team. And that's why we said in
the play in preview. Obviously it's a one game sample,
so you know, you could it's a fifty to fifty,
but that's why we took.

Speaker 2 (41:04):
Orlando over Atlanta.

Speaker 1 (41:06):
Bigger team can bully some of these individual matchups, and
that's why I would bet on Polo and Franz versus
a team with smaller wings or guys that they can
move around, and I think that's an advantage that Orlando has.
They can't exert any of their physical advantages over Boston.
This is a poor shooting team. I just think Boston

(41:27):
has such a comical margin in every game, Like I
could see Boston not playing up to their standard in
every single game and still sweeping.

Speaker 2 (41:38):
If I'm being honest, I don't think.

Speaker 1 (41:39):
They would have to throw like their best punch, and
I think they could win so in typical Boston fashion,
I think they let one game get out of hand
to Orlando. Maybe Paolo Goo's superhuman and gives you a
forty piece and Cole Anthony gets hot, Franz Wagner knots
down some shots like they play good defense. The Jays
are off. I could see Orlando stealing one game, but

(42:02):
no more than that. This is probably the most confident
I am in any single series in the in the
first round of the playoffs.

Speaker 2 (42:10):
So I'm gonna take Boston in five.

Speaker 3 (42:12):
I'm gonna take Boston to sweep here.

Speaker 2 (42:14):
They are just I like it. I like it way.

Speaker 3 (42:18):
Way way better. But as you mentioned, like, they're also
exceptionally well built to guard the Magic's two best offensive players,
who are like by far the biggest threats, the most
competent creators that they have as a basketball team. Because
they've got two excellent, big, strong defensive wings in the Jays,

(42:39):
they have no defensive week points for those guys to attack.
And you think about like the one dude who it's
maybe okay, you can bring him out in space and
can you get past him? Could be Christops Porzingis. But like,
you just have KP play drop against them. You dare
them both to beat you as shooters. Both been quite
inefficient as jump shooters all year.

Speaker 1 (43:00):
Like you mentioned earlier or last episode with Gobert, if
that's even an issue, you just stick KP in a
corner and switch everybody else and let Horford and White
and Holiday do all that work.

Speaker 3 (43:10):
I don't even think you have to. I think just
straight up drop is really effective. And they're just a
bad offense Orlando. You mentioned at number twenty seven offense
in basketball worst three point shooting scene by percentage that
we've seen in the NBA in the last nine years
logan under thirty two percent from deep and that's on
both Paolo and Franz, and that's also on all the

(43:33):
spot up guys around them. There's also very little creation
around them, not a lot of downhill threats around them,
not a lot of particularly good playmakers around them. Like,
there's just so much burden on these two guys who
are both very talented but still struggle with their own efficiencies,
have to deal with this absolutely hellish spacing, and it's

(43:53):
just too much to ask. It's a really ugly offense
against a great defense in Boston, and Orlando has a
defense their second in defensive rating this year. But you know,
Boston is still going to produce really good offense no
matter what. They have too many creators, they have too
much shooting. So I legitimately struggle to see how the
Magic win a game in this series, Like it would
have to be I think a collective Paolo and Franz masterclass.

(44:16):
I think they have to combine for like close to seventy. Yeah, yeah,
I would go north of sixty. And then you probably
still need an off shooting night from Boston, which.

Speaker 2 (44:26):
And you need other guys totally rule out, but and
you need other guys to go crazy. It's not just
those two guys.

Speaker 1 (44:34):
Man, dude, I want to preface this stat with Paolo
and Franz were both injured for a little bit. So
some of these games, you know, the Orlando was just
insanely beat up with nobody to carry the offense. Orlando
had nine games this year with under ninety point scored.

Speaker 3 (44:54):
It's crazy.

Speaker 1 (44:55):
That's in the Big twenty twenty five guys, Like that's
so ridiculously hard to overcome, especially against the juggernaut like Boston.

Speaker 3 (45:03):
One hundred percent. And that's the other thing. It's not
just that they're lacking an offensive skill. They play so slow.
Every possession is just.

Speaker 2 (45:13):
A slog, specifically in this matchup.

Speaker 1 (45:16):
That's why that three point stat is so damning, because
it's like you just have to reach a certain level
of three point shooting ability when you're playing Boston because
they are the you know, so high volume and they're
so efficient. It's like, if you're this bad, Boston just
has so much more margin. If they're getting three every
time and you're getting two.

Speaker 2 (45:37):
They're just gonna run away. Like, yeah, I don't know, man,
can we take this.

Speaker 1 (45:42):
We'll talk about this in the future, but like Orlando's
just got to get that star guard, right, like that
has to be their number one priority, right.

Speaker 3 (45:50):
One hundred percent, because right now they just need more
offensive punch, They need more playmaking, they need more of
everything man shooting around their two wings and Polo and
Frands don't have the most seamlessly complimentary skill sets offensively,
which is one thing, but above all else, like the
dudes around them just aren't good enough. Like, you know,
it would be nice if Wendell Carter junior shot hadn't

(46:12):
just fallen off a cliff this year and now he's
a twenty three three point shooter, if you felt like, oh,
maybe he could actually punish a KP for playing drop
with the pick and pop game. But like, no, he's
been one of the worst shooters in basketball. Jonathan Isaac
has had a terrible shooting season, so I think it
could be interesting to see them maybe go Isaac at
the five and just be super defensively versatile. But like,

(46:35):
if he can't spread you out offensively and make shots
from outside, what does it matter. I got a huge
mismatch here.

Speaker 1 (46:42):
Man, I got another over under for you, So okay,
over under one and a half games in this series.
That the magic don't crack one hundred points.

Speaker 3 (46:56):
That's a good line. I'm gonna say, Damn, that's a
good line because I only think this goes four games.
That's the thing.

Speaker 2 (47:08):
I'm gonna say.

Speaker 3 (47:10):
Over I'm gonna say there's two games where they're sitting
on like ninety seven ninety eight. I think they're in
for a slog now. I am really excited to see
what Paolo looks like in his second appearance in the playoffs,
because he's been playing some really good basketball as of late,
and I think has really fully recovered to the form
that you like to see him in, getting the line

(47:31):
at a monstrous raid, and his scoring efficiency has been
solid and his volume has been super impressive. He's got
quite the act to follow up from last year where
we talked about just his shot making was so good
from the mid range, from beyond the arc. Can he
replicate that? Probably not, but it'll be interesting to see
how he fares against a really, really good, really tough

(47:52):
playoff defense. And same goes for Franz, because unfortunately with Franz,
like I was really hoping the three point shot was
gonna come back in a bigger way this year, it's
still been pretty rough, but he had a very bipolar
playoff series against Cleveland last year, I would say, where
he had a couple of great performances and a couple
of really bad performances. So but at the end of

(48:12):
the day, if you're Orlando, like you're basically just evaluating
how to Palo and Frand's look, that's what matters because
you know the team around them is going to change
so so much, and you hope that you're encouraged by
what those two guys give you, which I totally think
is possible. And the Magic still could get swept in
this series because Boston's just a phenomenal team and the

(48:32):
magic are very limited. I want to talk about this
Bucks Pacers series logan because we did our preview the
other day and at the time there were rumblings that
Dame was progressing well, so we should have at least
acknowledged that it was a possibility to heat come back.
But now it's really looking like he will. He's out
for Game one, but he's off of his blood thinners.

(48:54):
So that's first of all, just an incredible recovery from
the blood clots. And I saw, as I often mentioned,
Brian Souter or MD, who's my go to with all
the sports medicine stuff, be like, this is really not
normal practices for a blood clot. This is a much
quicker process of taking Dame off blood thinners than you
would normally expect to see. So obviously we don't know

(49:16):
the specifics. Hopefully they're not rushing anything or doing anything reckless,
and it's just Dame is healthy and ready to go,
which is a wonderful thing. But given that both of
our initial predictions were Pacers and six for this series,
how does Dame being back change the dynamics of this series?
And does it change your official prediction?

Speaker 1 (49:36):
It does change my prediction, but I'm not switching teams.
I'm gonna move that from Pacers in six to Pacers
in seven, and primarily because I still think the bucks
Achilles heel is their Achilles heel.

Speaker 2 (49:49):
Now, does Damian Lillard shrink the margin? Certainly?

Speaker 1 (49:52):
And I would give the Bucks a very good opportunity
to win this series. When Jannis we mentioned a bunch
of stats in our preview earlier about how Giannis is dominated,
you read off the well, first of all, Giannis has
been on a tear. I think he's averaging like a
thirty point triple double during this Bucks winning streak, which
is just ridiculous or close to with assists.

Speaker 2 (50:13):
A couple of games ago, he was up at like
eleven or ten a game.

Speaker 1 (50:17):
But you mentioned how Jannis has just dominated the Pacers
over their last fifteen appearances. So Yiannis is gonna get
his and now that you have a guy like Dame
who is still a one man offense and one of
the best shooters in basketball, I give them a very
good chance. That being said, the reason I'm still going
to take the Pacers. I think the Pacers offense is

(50:40):
still gonna get what they want. Dame coming back doesn't
change that he's not an elite defender.

Speaker 2 (50:44):
He's not a guy that's gonna be.

Speaker 3 (50:45):
Able to He's certainly not that he's certainly.

Speaker 1 (50:48):
Not that he's not gonna provide a ton of resistance
to any of the Pacers guards or change that dynamic.

Speaker 2 (50:56):
That's number one. Number two.

Speaker 1 (50:59):
You mentioned how his it is the Dame has returned
this quickly. I think it would just be a lot
for me to expect that Dame is gonna be Damian
Lillard from earlier this season. Just miraculously. I'm so glad
he's back. I am praying that they're not rushing him back,
that this is not an impulsive decision, because it really
is truly historic. You don't see anybody that deals with

(51:21):
blood clots come back this quickly.

Speaker 2 (51:24):
I mean it, You're normally last in a month.

Speaker 1 (51:27):
Yeah, I mean you're normally out the rest of the year.
You're normally out half the year, Like you don't play
with stuff like this. So I'm praying that Dame is
ready to go. And this is not like a you know,
oh shit, we need Dame. I hope they're not rushing
him back.

Speaker 2 (51:41):
Yeah, it just doesn't change the dynamics enough for me.

Speaker 1 (51:44):
And the third reason is because Damigiannis still have yet
to fully realize their their potential together. And we mentioned
that last episode in our preview. But that may be enough.
If Damon Giannis had fully realized their potential together as
a duo and maximized each other when they were on
the court together and really enhanced each other, that may

(52:05):
be enough to give them the edge. But because we
haven't seen that, it doesn't give me full confidence.

Speaker 2 (52:10):
And so look, this is.

Speaker 1 (52:12):
Shrunk the margins in this series. I would give the
Bucks a very good opportunity to win this series. I'm
like fifty to fifty on Bucks and seven or Pacers
in seven. That being said, I just think the Pacers
offense in totality is better than the Bucks offense, and
I think both of these groups are going to struggle
to stop the other team on defense. So because I
prefer the Pacers offense in totality to Milwaukee's, even though

(52:35):
Dame is coming back, I'm gonna change mind from Pacers
and six to Pacers in seven.

Speaker 3 (52:41):
Dame coming back absolutely helps the Bucks, but I don't
think it helps them quite as much as some people
might think. Now, there are some areas where it really
does make a difference, like in the non Yahnis minutes.
I am much more comfortable with Dame carrying the load
there than like a Kevin Porter junior. Obviously, Dame has

(53:01):
been at his best offensively when he's on the floor
without Giannis. That's when he's been most productive. That's when
he's able to play his ball dominant style of basketball,
where he's able to run a ton of pick and
roll and look more like the Damian Lillard of years
past running the show. It also obviously helps in terms
of scaling down everybody else's responsibilities. Like Ryan Rowlins has

(53:23):
been playing some really solid basketball for Milwaukee as of late.
You're a little nervous about him having to start in
a playoff series though, just kind of out of the blue.
And now you have Damian Lillard slotted back in, so
everybody else is just asked to do a little bit less.
You feel a little bit better about your depth, although
I still think that that's definitely a comparative weakness for
Milwaukee compared to Indiana. And of course, like you're just

(53:45):
getting Damian Lillard back, man, you're getting another really dynamic
offensive threat on the floor, somebody who can really create
an advantage, somebody who can really step up as a
high level score alongside Gianni's when you felt like you
didn't have another guy like that in your lineup without Dame.
The reason that I don't think it helps quite as
much as some people might think, though, is because the

(54:08):
Bucks have been playing great basketball without Dame. The Bucks
have a one to twenty three offensive rating with Yannis
on the floor without Dame this year that is absolutely phenomenal.
With both of them on the floor, they have a
one eighteen offensive rating, which is still quite good, but
it's not the sort of elite number that you're getting
when Yannis is able to run the show himself. So

(54:29):
it does help absolutely to have another high end creator
on the floor like Dame. But I genuinely think that
Yannis ball is when the Bucks are at their best,
when Yannice is effectively acting as their point guard, when
he is able to consistently be the one initiating possessions
getting downhill and he just has a bunch of spot
up shooters around him, and he's so good as a passer,

(54:50):
and he's such a crazy driving threat. Of course, like
that's when they've produced their best offensive results. He and
Dame just have a tendency to step on each other's
toes a bit on offense. And now Dame is phenomenal
with the ball in his hands, But are you asking
Giannis to screen for him more? Like we've just seen, right,
their two man game isn't nearly as effective as it

(55:11):
should have been in theory. That's not gonna change at
this point, So I don't think it helps their offense
as much as a lot of people would probably think
looking at just adding Damian Lillard back to this team
on paper, both because Giannis has been so good at
producing offense in the non Dame minutes, and also because
the two of them are offensively aren't quite as potent

(55:32):
together as they should be in theory. And the other
thing here is it does absolutely nothing to help their
defense getting Dame back. In fact, I would say it
hurts their defense. And it's that side of the ball
that's my big concern for Milwaukee in this series. I
thought they were gonna have a really good offensive series
without Dame on the floor. I just thought the Pacers

(55:54):
would have an even better offensive series because I don't
think the Bucks have answers for them on that end specifically.
I talked about this a lot in our full series preview,
so I don't want to be a broken record, but
I just think Brook Lopez is gonna have a really
rough go Defensively. He's an old, slow footed big against
a team that likes to play really, really fast, and
he is a rigid, true drop coverage big against a

(56:19):
Tyres Halliburton and Miles Turner led pick and pop attack
where you have an elite three point shooting big in Turner,
and then you have an elite pull up three point
shooter in Halle. You have an elite floater shot maker
in Hallie, and he's just gonna pick those coverages apart.
What the Bucks do a lot, as I mentioned last show,
is they put Brook and drop it. Then they have
a wing rotate over so that Turner isn't just getting

(56:42):
wide open pick and pop threes, but then that's gonna
free open another shooter elsewhere. And the Pacers just moved
the ball so well. They have so much offensive IQ
and totality, and Halle leading the show can make such
excellent decisions that they're just get to get a lot
of great shots if Brooke is on the floor, and
now you also have a true point of attack liability
out there and Damian Lillard. So I do want to

(57:04):
see them try some gianness at the five lineups with
Kup's at the four and do more of switching everything
and maybe that way you're at least making the Pacers
work harder for their buckets. But when Dame is on
the floor, if you're switching everything, now that's the guy
who people are going to be targeting in terms of
mismatch hunting, and he can just really really get destroyed

(57:25):
there so it's good to have Dame back on the floor.
It's just great to see him healthy. That's the most
important thing. I am going to adjust my pick like you,
and I'm gonna say Pacers in seven now because Dame
can win you a game on his own, and that's
super valuable. And if there isn't one game in this
series where Dame has thirty eight to forty points, I'd

(57:46):
be surprised. Like he just has that sort of scoring ceiling.
But I don't think his impact is quite as great
for this team specifically as his box score production will be.
And I'm still gonna prefer the Pacers a lead off
in their own right, which I do think is just
a smooth or more symbiotic operation. And I think their
depth is still a lot better. Their formula is just

(58:08):
a little bit cleaner to me, and they have clearly
more basketball players who I really trust. A lot of
the same concerns that I laid out about the Bucks
in our preview don't just go away with Dame beck
on the floor. I still worry about Kho's falling apart
as a shooter. I still worry about their depth compared
to Indiana's, and so for those reasons. I'm gonna say
this is really really tight because that Dame and Jannis,

(58:30):
just the two of them being so damn good at
basketball is scary. But I still think the Pacers are
the better team in totality.

Speaker 1 (58:38):
Yeah, I'm I'm I'm aligned with that. What would you
give a percentage wise though, because I really am like
in a fifty to fifty with this series.

Speaker 3 (58:46):
I wouldn't go fifty to fifty. All go sixty forty, okay,
because I think Jannis is going to go absolutely insane.
As we discussed, he could carry you past Indiana, especially
now that he has another guy who is capable of
those explosive performances on the floor with him. But I
do think Indiana is the better overall basketball team.

Speaker 1 (59:06):
Still, Yeah, maybe I'll go I'll go like fifty five
to forty five, but I would give again, we got
in seven, so I mean, like, you know, a bad
performance or something could could swing this in the last
game of the series.

Speaker 2 (59:19):
But I think I think Indiana is the better team.
I think they've got better role players.

Speaker 1 (59:25):
But I'm super I'm super intrigued. I'm way more intrigued
now that they're to be back for this series.

Speaker 3 (59:31):
Yeah, I was kind of excited to see Yannis just
have full control of the operation and see what sort
of nuclear numbers he could put up. But I still
think he's gonna put up in say numbers, and now
I do think the Bucks have a bit of a
better chance at winning the series. I'm also just like
happy for their fan base that they hopefully are going
to have one playoff run that isn't significantly impacted by injury,

(59:52):
because twenty twenty two you have Middleton out, twenty twenty
three you have Yannis in and out with injuries. Last
year you don't have be honest at all in this
year was looking like you weren't gonna have Dame at all.
So at the end of the day, I think the
Bucks have some pretty big issues that exist, whether they
are fully healthy or not. I just think they've done
a bad job of building out this roster. But you
at least deserve the chance to see it in action,

(01:00:15):
and they are hopefully gonna get that for the first time.
Another reason I would still lean Indiana is we don't
know how many games of Dame you're getting. Is it
gonna be four, is it gonna be five, Is it
gonna be three, Like, we don't know when he's.

Speaker 2 (01:00:26):
Coming the minutes potentially too.

Speaker 3 (01:00:27):
Yeah, yeah, we just don't know. There's still too many
unknowns for me to pick Milwaukee to win this series.
Let's look at the plan before we get out of here. Logan,
we had two teams whose seasons were ended last night,
the Sacramento Kings and the Chicago Bulls, both of whom
got beaten pretty convincingly. Who should be more disappointed between

(01:00:50):
those two teams about how their season ended?

Speaker 2 (01:00:53):
Logan, gotta be Sacramento. I mean, it's gotta be Sacramento.

Speaker 1 (01:00:56):
Like one they fired their g Monti McNair is now out. Yeah,
Scott Perry is in. They announced that second the ball
game was over, they said get out of here.

Speaker 3 (01:01:08):
Mind.

Speaker 2 (01:01:11):
I mean, the Kings are basically.

Speaker 1 (01:01:16):
The West Bulls from like the past three years now,
Like they've just got the best players. Yeah, and then
they've just got a different European big man. I think
I slightly prefers the bonus Tavucevic.

Speaker 3 (01:01:31):
Actually this slightly.

Speaker 2 (01:01:34):
I'm not too fond of either of them.

Speaker 1 (01:01:36):
So it's like, I mean, the Kings traded their best
player and they ran back a worst version of the
Bulls from the past five years. So it's like, I
don't really think it's a contest. I think there's a
lot to be optimistic about with Chicago because they finally
chose a direction. I'm not the biggest Josh Giddy guy,
but Josh Gitty shot pretty well from behind the arc,

(01:01:58):
and I think that's very encouraged from a young player,
just to see any sort of progression like that.

Speaker 2 (01:02:03):
I love Kobe White.

Speaker 1 (01:02:04):
That guy is one of the best flame throwers in
the league. When Kobe sees the ball go through to
net a couple of times, he can just get hot
and rip off an insane quarter. He's an elite spot
up player in Shooter. I love Matas Bouzelis. I think
Bozellis is gonna be something very very special in this league.

Speaker 2 (01:02:22):
I don't know if I can confidently.

Speaker 1 (01:02:24):
Say like an All Star caliber player, but I think
around there or maybe one of those all Star caliber
players that's not an All Star. And what I mean
by that is one of those really really high impact
winning players with what he brings you in totality, defensively,
in transition, and I think he's got real upside. Again,
not superstar upside as an offensive player, but some more

(01:02:46):
upside as a ball handler, as a playmaker, as a
shooter off.

Speaker 2 (01:02:50):
Of the dribble. The Bulls are building to something. I
don't know what it's gonna.

Speaker 1 (01:02:56):
Be, and I don't know if this and you know
be included in my argument. But also like the East
is just nowhere nearly as competitive as the West. There's
a real opportunity for the Bulls to get better and
to be in the playoffs next year. I don't think
that exists for Sacramento. Sacramento currently exists in purgatory with
no number one. They've got three number threes.

Speaker 2 (01:03:17):
Yeah, awesome, Sacramento.

Speaker 1 (01:03:19):
Let's go like that's what sucks about dealing away Foxes.
At least you had your number two and if you
could have made a big swing and gotten that guy,
the Kings have regressed like it's just and they had
the guys Dan Halliburton man, damn no.

Speaker 3 (01:03:36):
Yeah, it's impossible not to look back at the Halle trade,
which Logan, I know you have been Adam and about
we're both big Halle guys. Here was a big mistake.
You chose the wrong guard to begin with. Halle is
better than Fox. I think that he clearly has a
higher ceiling as an offensive engine. But the real disaster
is within three years you lost them both. You traded

(01:03:57):
away Halley, you didn't do nearly a good enough job
building around Fox, at least from his perspective, and then
you reach the point where you have to trade him.
And when they traded Fox, when those rumors first emerged,
I said, this is gonna be hard for Kings fans
to stomach because they went through so many miles in
years of sewage before they finally got to be a

(01:04:19):
competitive basketball team. But as harsh as it as, it is,
like your best option at this point is to blow
it up because without darn Fox on this team, with
the core that they were going to have to try
to put together, like, your ceiling is just so low.
And unfortunately they tried to sort of keep their chips

(01:04:41):
in by getting Lavine, by not getting the most draft
capital that they could have, by not really pushing for
a bunch of young players. And at the time I
was like, hey, man, I can't hate on this because
you did get back a really good player, and I
know how much the Kings specifically value just being competitive
and keeping their fan base and get so, like I said,

(01:05:02):
this isn't a disaster. But when we look back in
a few years, are you gonna be happy that you
traded for Zach Levine or are you gonna wish that
you had pushed really hard for Stefan Castle in an
extra draft pick or two. My feeling was the latter,
And now I feel like at the end of year one,
you can already say like, yeah, this wasn't worth it.

Speaker 2 (01:05:19):
Let me ask you something. Can they run this back
next year?

Speaker 1 (01:05:22):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (01:05:22):
Can they sure? I mean, what's gonna come of it? Nothing? Dude.
Part of the reason that I think it's actually pretty
possible that they do is these are three guys who
are not easy to trade, Like.

Speaker 2 (01:05:34):
No, not at all, any of them.

Speaker 1 (01:05:36):
They're all we well, I'd say Levine is probably the
easiest to fit in somewhere, but.

Speaker 3 (01:05:41):
He's in a big contract and they just traded for him,
So he's probably the guy they're gonna be least inclined
to move just because of what.

Speaker 1 (01:05:47):
I can't okay with that, because I think that one
I just wouldn't want to give up. And then you
can really make the easy comparison if you gave up
Fox for this, because you're basically giving up Fox for
Levine and then whatever you get back for Lavigne is
what you got for Fox. But de Rosen and Sabonis
are really clunky wherever they go. They're not really easy

(01:06:08):
seamless fits.

Speaker 2 (01:06:09):
But I'd be okay with that.

Speaker 1 (01:06:11):
I'm there's no way. The spacing is too bad. There's
no direction, there's no there's just nothing encouraging. They're gonna
be in the play in again, man, Like. That's basically
if they run this back, if they don't make any an.

Speaker 3 (01:06:25):
Me, well, you're gonna have the healthy Spurs next year.
The West is gonna be even tougher. The West don't
want an incredibly difficult place to win basketball games.

Speaker 1 (01:06:35):
I really want them to deal two of the three
or all three and just blow it up.

Speaker 3 (01:06:42):
Yeah. I think that that's gonna be a lot easier
said than done. But I would absolutely be looking to
move off of these guys, and specifically Sabonis. Man. You
look at these playoff type games and he's pretty much
always bad. I know this is your super Bowl? Really yeah?
Oh really look man, I've never been a Sabonis.

Speaker 2 (01:07:04):
Guy, Kip, but stop the what are you.

Speaker 3 (01:07:07):
Talking about cap.

Speaker 2 (01:07:08):
What are you talking about?

Speaker 3 (01:07:09):
You just say the most outrageous shit, like Miles Turners
better than him, and then I call you on that,
I'm not a bonus guy. That's still a terrible take.
That's still a terrible take. How dare you try to
frame me as a Sabonus guy?

Speaker 2 (01:07:22):
You in your top thirty?

Speaker 3 (01:07:24):
I had him at number twenty nine. That's lower than
most people would have had him. And guess what, I
still regret it. But you know this will make you
feel good. You know you should have been an that
spot logan James Harden. So how's that a fucking yeah?
Yeah that. I don't think that Sabonus has ever been
a guy who was easy to put a really, really

(01:07:45):
good basketball team around. And I've consistently said that. That
mean he said, I'm not as low on him as
you are because you say things like that sucks and
you slay you think.

Speaker 1 (01:07:53):
Do you think Sabonus could play the four?

Speaker 3 (01:07:57):
In twenty twelve? He came into the league as a four.

Speaker 1 (01:08:02):
But the only reason I asked that is because I
think there's a very specific archetype that you have to
have alongside Sabonis. I think you need a guy who
can actually be a legitimate like rim protector, as a
help side or as an anchor.

Speaker 3 (01:08:17):
And I think you need Chet Holmgren alongside him. Yeah,
and guess what, there's not a lot of those guys.
It's tough man would all say is most frustrating about
Sabonis And this has always been his limitation. And this
is what we talked about after the twenty twenty three
playoffs and what we talked about after the playing game
last year, and it's the same exact thing that you
see in the playing game this year. Like he can

(01:08:37):
run his handoffs, and he spots cutters, and he's a
great screener, and he's going to be great on the
glass and all of that stuff is good, and it
makes him clearly a positive offensive player. But he cannot
score the basketball at a high enough level to be
an elite offensive player. He is not one of those
unique bigs who can run inverted pick and roll for
you or go out there and get himself a bucket

(01:08:58):
on an island. He's not a super skilled post score.
He's strong, but he just has good, not great touch.
And so there are certain guys who can provide a
physical counter to him, and they can limit his scoring volume.
He improved as a jump shooter this year, didn't make
a difference in the one do or Die game of
the year. Like, he's just not comfortable enough as a

(01:09:20):
high level scorer to be able to leverage that scoring
threat into like truly elite playmaking truly elite offensive value.
Because I don't even think his defense is as big
of a problem as it's been made out to be,
Like he's super mediocre there, but he's not like somebody
who single handedly is going to hold a team's defense back.
The problem is the King's defense in totality is bad,

(01:09:43):
but it's the scoring that really frustrates me with him.
So yeah, hey, I shouldn't have had him in my
top thirty players. I felt weird about it at the time.
Now I would definitely take him out, but I'm putting
James Harden there, so deal with that. But just because
of the clunkiness of his skill set still not being
a plus defensive center, which is always what you want
from that position, and being a guy with the sort

(01:10:07):
of scoring questions and jump shooting questions that he still has,
I don't think you're gonna find like a robust trade market,
like the Sacramento Kings have truly built the ultimate mid
three man. They have taken three dudes who all have
major flaws when it comes to driving winning at a
high level. If it's defensive engagement effort, if it's some

(01:10:29):
of their unique offensive skill sets that like can be
tough to fit in alongside other high end offensive players,
Like they all have their sort of weird little quirks
that limit them. And like you said, man, like they
feel like three dudes who are meant to be your
third option on a really good team. But then you question, like,
even for one of those teams, can they fit. Like

(01:10:52):
Lavine is the guy who has the seamless offensive skill
set he does, but at the same time, like the
defense with him is better. It's a problem. I just
think he carries perhaps some sort of negative spell around
with him, man, where it's like Zach Lavine's teams always
suck man and like throughout his career they're just consistently

(01:11:13):
worse with him on the floor. And all these dudes
have an average age of over thirty one years old,
and they're gonna make it. Combined one hundred and sixteen
million dollars next year, So you're in a truly catastrophic position,
Like you should have tried to get more out of
Fox if you were destined to trade him. In terms
of your future, you should have realized the ceiling that
you were going to have with this new core, and

(01:11:35):
they didn't do that, And so I don't know where
they're headed from here. Man, Like, Yeah, they're probably gonna
try to trade these guys, but they're gonna be hard
to trade. So hopefully Kings fans can withstand another year
or two of this core and like have the perspective of, hey,
at least we're mediocre instead of terrible. But realistically, it's
better to be terrible than to be mediocre because then

(01:11:56):
at least there's something on the horizon. You're getting high
draft picks, and Kings fans know that, and I know
they're very frustrated, because I do think a lot of
them felt very optimistic in twenty twenty three with the
regular season they had, and it's all just come crashing
down so fast and so hard.

Speaker 1 (01:12:14):
I'm in my bag right now trying to cook up
a Sabonis for KD trade.

Speaker 3 (01:12:19):
Good God, Jesus.

Speaker 2 (01:12:22):
I mean the Suns would be idiotic to do this.

Speaker 3 (01:12:24):
But I mean, like, I don't want to see KD
go to the Kings. I want to see KD go
somewhere he can contend.

Speaker 2 (01:12:34):
Oh, I'm just looking.

Speaker 1 (01:12:35):
I was just perusing all the NBA teams that like
need a guy like Sabonis, like a big body rebounder.

Speaker 2 (01:12:42):
Yeah, there's no actually like easy fits.

Speaker 1 (01:12:47):
The only one is like Oklahoma City, And the only
way to make that happen is you'd have to give
up Casson, Isaiah, Joe Jang and Aaron Wiggins. And it's
like the thunder are getting worse.

Speaker 2 (01:12:57):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (01:12:58):
No, they'd never do that. They would ever do that.

Speaker 2 (01:13:01):
I don't None of these guys are easy to move.

Speaker 3 (01:13:05):
They're not. They're really really not. We'll see if rumors
start picking up, if anybody emerges as a contender. But
there's not a lot of spots that I love for Domos.
There's not a lot of spots that I love for
Tomorrow for sure, Levine, I think you could talk me
into more situations. But I still think that there's some

(01:13:25):
real questions that the teams are gonna have about taking
him on as a real part of their future. So
answering the question like the Bulls might be headed to
this point in a few years, right like, right now
they sort of have the benefit of being shielded by
their youth and like they're trending upwards, and so you

(01:13:45):
can say, oh, theoretically, this guy is going to be this,
and realistically, I don't think they have an all star
on their roster, and if you don't have an all
star on your roster, like, there's obviously a very hard
ceiling on that. But hey, they're not there now. They
aren't one hundred and sixteen million dollars in three guys
who on average are over thirty. They aren't dealing with
all this in the West. So obviously the Kings have

(01:14:06):
had the more disappointing season. They are really in a
really difficult spot. Let's make our predictions for the play
in logan. We'll go real quick here because it's a
single game format, it's hard to ever know exactly what's
going to happen. But let's start logan with the eight
seeded Hawks taking on the tenth seeded Miami Heat out east.

(01:14:31):
Who do you think comes out of this one and
gets to face the Cleveland Cavaliers and get absolutely demolished
in the first round. Wow, I'm so ready.

Speaker 2 (01:14:44):
I'm so ready to write Miami off.

Speaker 1 (01:14:46):
I just don't know, man, I didn't think Miami is
gonna get out against Chicago. I think I'm gonna take
Atlanta just because I can way easily see them having
a good offensive game. For Miami, it always just feels
a little bit more laborious. But who knows, Man Toddler
Hero could go crazy again and he'd aren't a bad team.

(01:15:07):
But yeah, regardless, I mean, this team's gonna get probably
swept in the first round by Cleveland, who ever wins.

Speaker 3 (01:15:13):
I'm picking whoever wins to get swept for sure. I'm
actually gonna take Miami here, and I should have taken
them over the Bulls. I don't know. I guess I
didn't really put that much thought into that pick at
the time, and I was like, a Bulls have been
winning games as of late, but I'm not a real
believer in Chicago. Not to say that Miami is a
very good basketball team, but they've got their own version

(01:15:33):
of a big three with Hero, Bam and Wiggins, who
I think are very clearly three of the four best
players in this matchup. I think they should start Davion
Mitchell for this game. You put him on Trey and
you get your best guard defender on him, hounding him
for forty minutes of the game. And I just think
Trey has to be so good for the Hawks to win.

(01:15:55):
And this past game for them against Orlando was just
like very dark from his support cast. His teammates made
three of sixteen threes in the game. No one else
can really do anything with the ball. And like Trey
found a way to get this team to forty wins,
God bless him, and he could easily still get them
into the playoffs. He could, he could go off for

(01:16:15):
thirty five and fifteen, But the Heat have more dudes
who are really good at basketball, and even though the
Hawks do have the best player in this matchup, I'm
gonna rely on the Heat. But this is pretty close.
I mean, I could really go either way with this one.
Out West, we have the eight seeded Grizzlies against the

(01:16:37):
tenth seeded Mavericks, who of course put away the Kings
and killed their dreams. Who do you see getting the
lucky draw facing the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round, Logan, this.

Speaker 1 (01:16:48):
Is fascinating Man, I just think it's gonna be a
really interesting matchup against Oklahoma City in general, just because
these teams are.

Speaker 2 (01:16:55):
So big and jumbo size. Right, if it's Dallas, you're.

Speaker 1 (01:16:58):
Gonna get AD in Dallas has had Okc's number, Like PJ.
Washington might drop fifty points a game in that series.
PJ was killing them in the regular season. And it
is just to start lest we forget the playoffs last year. Yeah,
it's just to start contrast because you have It's a
big ass team, man, Gafford, Lively, Ad.

Speaker 2 (01:17:22):
Damn. And this will suck for whoever misses the playoffs.

Speaker 1 (01:17:25):
Right for Dallas after trading away Luca, you missed the
playoffs for Memphis to have. I'm gonna take Dallas because
I think Memphis is just spiraling right now. I think
this team is. I'm gonna make a vibes pick here.
I like the vibes in Dallas a little bit more.
I think the vibes wow, are are trending downwards.

Speaker 3 (01:17:44):
Logan, I gotta say you might be the only person
who's high on the vibes in Dallas. I think the
vibes in.

Speaker 1 (01:17:50):
Dallas, I mean the vibes for both of these organizations
are terrible.

Speaker 2 (01:17:53):
But I'm gonna take Dallas.

Speaker 3 (01:17:56):
It is gonna be such a huge disappointment for either
one of these teams to miss the playoffs entirely. I'm
gonna take Memphis here, but it's very close. The MAVs
are good when Anthony Davis plays, they are massive. Their
defense is excellent. I still just worry about their offense

(01:18:17):
a little too much to pick them to win this one.
Like eighty is so damn good, but he hasn't fully
hit his offensive rhythm with this team yet and is
still really trying to figure out the fit right playing
alongside centers as much as he is. If you look
at the Kings game, you got a lot out of
Clay and Brandon Williams. I don't really believe that they'll

(01:18:37):
replicate that. I just think they're ball handling their shooting.
It's all a bit limited playing the two big looks
as much as they're going to. But the defense is great,
and they would be so damn good if they just
had Kyrie Irving Man and like Obviously that's not to
say that the Luca trade wasn't a complete disaster, which
it obviously was, but the biggest most disastrous part about

(01:18:59):
it was that it destroyed their future. It would have
been nice for MAVs fans to at least get to
see the short term vision of the madman that is
Nico Harrison, because that still should have been a really
good basketball team if Kyrie didn't go out.

Speaker 1 (01:19:14):
For these Did you see that interview clip with Tim mcmadmon, Yeah,
al Timer, all timer.

Speaker 3 (01:19:21):
He's remarkable. He's just absolutely remarkable.

Speaker 2 (01:19:25):
He's an idiot, but okay, remarkable we can go with.

Speaker 3 (01:19:28):
Yeah, he's remarkably stupid. That's what I'm saying. He's a mare.

Speaker 2 (01:19:31):
So funny you were. The way McMahon phrased the question
was perfect too.

Speaker 3 (01:19:36):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (01:19:36):
So yeah, you were talking about having a competitive window
for the next five years, so you know you don't
have any first round picks from twenty seven to twenty thirty,
so what's your rationale?

Speaker 2 (01:19:46):
And then Nico was like, I can't hear you. Can
you repeat that?

Speaker 3 (01:19:48):
He said, how's that good for the long term future
of your franchise? And Nico says, I'm like, I don't know.

Speaker 2 (01:19:54):
He said, can Yeah, he said, can you repeat that?

Speaker 3 (01:19:57):
I don't understand. Yeah, he's something else, man, So sorry,
mass fans. You don't have Kyrie Irving. I think that
that's the difference in this game. If you did, then
I would definitely pick the mask.

Speaker 2 (01:20:09):
Brandon Williams forty five.

Speaker 3 (01:20:11):
You think so? You think so?

Speaker 2 (01:20:13):
I do like Brandon Williams.

Speaker 3 (01:20:14):
I know, Yeah, you're a big Brandon Williams guy. Do
have to point out Jaws not one hundred percent. He
didn't practice today, obviously, tweaked his ankle in the Warriors game.
And Memphis has been playing a lot of mediocre basketball.
They have just been plumbing in the standings. Their defense
is falling off a cliff. I also think Dallas's size
and rim protection makes this a tougher matchup for Triple J.

(01:20:36):
But Memphis in totality, they just still have a fair
bit more offensive skill. What I'm getting with Jaw's ability
to just dust people off the bounce and still score
and playmate at the level he can Triple J's scoring potential.
Desmond Baine write what he can do for you as
a shooter in an all around offensive contributor. He was
great against the Warriors. I'm gonna bet on John Bain

(01:20:59):
playing pretty well. I'm gonna bett on Memphis being the
better shooting team in totality, and I'm gonna say that
they pull through in this one. Before we get out
of here, Logan, we got to do our picks for
the Draft Kings King of the Playoffs. This is actually
a super fun opportunity. Draft Kings is asking people to

(01:21:20):
pick who they think will be the highest scoring player
of the first round of the playoffs. This is by
total points scored, not points per game, and if you
pick the winner correctly, then you split a two million
dollar prize with everybody else who picked that same player.
So there's some components to the strategy here that I'll

(01:21:41):
walk you through, at least from my perspective. You want,
obviously somebody who's gonna score a lot of points, but
you want somebody who is in a series that you
expect to go long, to go six or seven games,
so they can rack up those total points. And maybe
if you're feeling cheeky, you could try to get somebody
who you think is a bit undervalued, somebody who you're
not expecting to be the most picked player. But obviously

(01:22:02):
you don't want to go out there and pick Norman Powell,
because Norman Powell, good as he is, he's not gonna
outscore the entire playoff field in the first round, so
there's that balance to strike. I thought this was a
fun exercise logan picking out who I wanted to choose here,
Who are you taking as the king of the first round?

Speaker 1 (01:22:17):
Coming into this, I thought I was gonna take Giannis
because he wasn't gonna have Dame, because I thought the
series would go so long, Like you know, if you
get six or seven, it's almost guaranteed that he's gonna
give you one eighty or two ten, just because of
how much he's dominated Indiana. So I don't think Yiannis
is a bad pick, but with Dame coming back, I
think I don't like him as much. So he's a

(01:22:38):
dark horse for me, but I think he's a good pick.
My other two dark horses, I really like Jalen Brunson.
I think that Piston series is gonna be competitive. I
think they take two games, maybe three, and I think
he's gonna score a ton. And I would also honorable
mention Anthony Edwards because I think it's a really bad
matchup for LA and I think he could have some really.

Speaker 2 (01:22:59):
Big score performances.

Speaker 1 (01:23:02):
I think a lot of people are gonna take this guy.
I think he is the no brainer pick for this one.
I know that you probably won't because you were mentioning
the matchup. I'm just gonna take Jokic. I think that
that series is gonna be super competitive. I'm the most
confident in that series going seven games. That's probably the
biggest reason I'm gonna take it. I think it just
has the highest probability of.

Speaker 2 (01:23:21):
Going the distance.

Speaker 1 (01:23:22):
But more importantly, I still think Jokic is the best
score on planet Earth.

Speaker 2 (01:23:27):
Him or Eshgia, you.

Speaker 1 (01:23:28):
Can take your pick, but SGA series is gonna last
four or five games, so I.

Speaker 2 (01:23:32):
Think Jokic is the.

Speaker 1 (01:23:36):
I He'd probably be the favorite, but I'm gonna take Jokic.
I just think he has the highest likelihood of a
series going the distance, and I think he's gonna be
up around twenty eight to thirty at night, So I'm
gonna take Joker.

Speaker 3 (01:23:47):
Jokic is a good pick. Of course, I really really
considered him. I was also looking at a sneaky Kawhi
Leonard in that series because I do think that series
is a good chance of going seven.

Speaker 2 (01:23:57):
Logan I'm not not today.

Speaker 3 (01:24:00):
Yeah, Well listen, I ended up not choosing him because realistically,
is he gonna outscore Yo Kitchen a seven game series?
Probably not, and there is more risk involved with his
health than any other option. I considered Luca because he's
been so damn good against the Wolves and I think
has the potential to have a really big scoring series.

(01:24:21):
But I'm gonna take Giannis here. Man, I'm gonna keep
it simple. In his last fifteen games versus Indiana, he
has averaged over thirty six points per game on seventy
percent true shooting. He is going to have to carry
a super heavy load in the time that Dame is out,
and even when Dane gets back, we don't know when
that's gonna be. But I still expect him to go

(01:24:42):
insane because his numbers against Indiana with Dame on or
off the floor are absolutely nuclear. They are basically the
best numbers, especially scoring numbers, that any individual player has
put up against any individual opponent in the league over
the last few seasons. Also, if you needed a tiebreaker,
if you need one more and this is the only
series I'm picking to go seven games, so I am

(01:25:03):
looking at the guy who I expect to score the
most per game because he has shredded Indiana as a
scorer like nobody has done to any other opponent, and
the series that I think has the best chance to
go the distance. It was pretty easy for me to
pick Giannis. Kind of a basic pick, but I don't care.
I'm confident in and I feel really good about it. Yeah,
as do I All right, Logan, you know what I
don't feel good about. You're trying to pay me as

(01:25:24):
some dimantas Sabonis guy. Sometimes I think in your mind,
you're sick and twisted mind. You have such a warped
perception of things, Like sometimes I think you think I'm
some sort of Ant hater because you think that Ant
is gonna be the greatest basketball player of all time.
I do think that answer, That's what I'm saying. Sometimes
I just view myself as a counterbalance to you, Okay,

(01:25:44):
because I'm not a Sabonis guy. You know this. Over
the years, I've never been high on him.

Speaker 1 (01:25:48):
The one thing that I really took issue with with
Sabonis was two guys, and that would be Big Zoo
this year and then it would be bam Adebayo.

Speaker 2 (01:25:58):
Those are the two guys that I would really take
issue with.

Speaker 3 (01:26:01):
Zou is to Well, you asked me this one last
time last episode, and I said, Waszoo. It really depends
on the situation. I think with both those guys, it
really depends on the stitution. They're in the same tier. Yeah, man, Because,
like so, Bonus does have an ability to provide an
offensive floor because of his playmaking value. Because he's still
going to give you really efficient scoring production throughout a

(01:26:21):
regular season and give you close to twenty a game.
It's just against an elite playoff defense in a high
stake situation, you have some real concerns about his scoring volume.
Zoo is such an efficient play finisher. He is such
a good pure rim protecting drop defensive big, but he
still has his limitations defensively when it comes to versatility obviously.

(01:26:43):
I mean there's massive gaps between them as passers, even
though Zoo is a very solid passing big. And it's
not like Zoo is somebody who's creating a lot for
himself as a scorer either, Like he's definitely a more
efficient post scorer.

Speaker 2 (01:26:55):
Yeah. To me, Zoo's just a little bit more reliable
as a scorer.

Speaker 3 (01:26:59):
And I I don't know, man, if you were asking
Zoo to carry a more significant offensive load without a
playmaker like.

Speaker 1 (01:27:08):
Rge like physically overwhelm guys way more than Sabonis. They're
really similar, but I think he's got better touch. I
think he's more of a physical mismatch. I think he's
a way better defender.

Speaker 3 (01:27:19):
So I don't disagree with any of that. I think
it's a pretty clear situation of like, if you are
trying to slot a guy in as your third best
player to raise your ceiling on an already very good roster,
I take Zoo every day of the week. If I
want a guy to be one of my two best players,
probably my second best player, to take a team to

(01:27:39):
win forty something games, then I want Sabonas. And generally
I do lean on the side of ceiling raising. But
I think that there's a pretty significant gap in terms
of the ability to carry that real offensive load between
these two. But I think they're in the same tier.
I think they and Bam are all in the same
tier at the end of the day. But congratulations, man,

(01:28:01):
I'm glad that you got to have this Sibonus disaster
class to end your season, because I know this is
going to fuel you throughout the offseason. Well, folks, we
talked about the playing games that are coming up, but
we're going to be live after those playing games tomorrow night.
We will talk about the action that we saw, and
we will give our quick previews of the one versus
eight seed matchups, and then will very very quickly run

(01:28:22):
through the rest of our hypothetical playoff brackets. We won't
spend a ton of time making in depth predictions about
series that are hypothetical, but we do have to let
you know who we're picking to win the NBA Finals
before this whole thing gets started, So look forward to that.
And by the way, just advice to everybody who watches
us on YouTube, be ready for the lives because a

(01:28:43):
significant majority of our content is going to be us
going live post game throughout the playoffs, which we will
be doing most nights, including Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of
this upcoming weekend specifically, So if you want to stay
locked in with all of our stuff, if you want
somewhere to go immediately post game to get your takes
off to hear our analysis, then we're gonna be here.

Speaker 2 (01:29:07):
Yeah those post notifications, yeah, turn them on. Turn on
the post notifications and lock in, Bro, turn.

Speaker 3 (01:29:14):
Them on and lock in. You're firing me up, Logan,
You're firing me all the way up.

Speaker 2 (01:29:18):
I'll go to WAM.

Speaker 1 (01:29:20):
Look, du I love doing the playoffs every year. I
have never been more excited for a playoffs than this year.

Speaker 2 (01:29:26):
I'm so I'm geeked up right now, Bro.

Speaker 3 (01:29:30):
Yeah, especially for the first round in the West. I
can't wait. I cannot wait. So hope you guys are
feeling as excited as if you are, then I hope
you want to enjoy this journey with us. If you
want all of our long form content, it's on our
YouTube channel, all of our full episodes and our video essays.
You can also listen to the full episodes across all

(01:29:52):
audio platforms wherever you get your stuff. You can follow
us across social TikTok, Instagram, at nerd, sas, Twitter, at nerd,
underscore sess to see clips from the show, efics from
the show, and all of our short form trivia content.
You can also join our discord if you want. That
is linked at the link tree across our social media bios,
and you can check out our merch if you want.
That is also linked in our link tree. So with

(01:30:14):
that as always, I've been Carson Braber, I

Speaker 2 (01:30:18):
Have been Logan Camden and this was nerd Sash

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Nerd Sesh - Warriors-Rockets Predictions, Does Dame’s return make Bucks favorites?

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}Nerd Sesh - Warriors-Rockets Predictions, Does Dame’s return make Bucks favorites?