The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Week 6

We've entered the heart of the NFL season, and Action Network NFL betting experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return to give out their favorite bets across the NFL slate. Together they discuss a massive Detroit Lions matchup against the Dallas Cowboys, give some praise to the Carolina Panthers, give out their boosted underdog moneyline parlay, and more. Plus, we hear their Big Balls Bet of the Week presented by Tommy John, play a round of Scooch Roulette and build a tasty round robin of NFL underdogs.

Plus, they narrow down their five picks in the free Favorites Podcast $100,000 Pro Football Pick 'Em Contest, which is STILL available for sign-up at favorites.actionnetwork.com

We even get a Last Word segment with Action Network Director of Research Evan Abrams. #Volume  #herd

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. I am
live from my Tommy John home studio, and I'm joined
as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre,
my BFF professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon, good morning chat.

Speaker 2 (00:34):
How are we doing?

Speaker 1 (00:36):
It's perfect. It's like kind of chilly in the Northeast.
I get the layer. I turned on the heat in
my office today. I'm looking at these lines and there
is an abundance, an abundance of opportunity. Today is our
NFL Week six Best Bets episode, where Simon and I

(00:58):
narrow down our five picks and the favorites one hundred
thousand dollars Pro Football pick'em contest presented by BET three
sixty five. Sign up now Favorites dot Actionnetwork dot com.
We will get into the foxhole. We'll give out our
Tommy John Big Balls bet of the week. We're gonna
discuss Simon's biggest bets, our boosted money line, Underdog Parlay,

(01:20):
the Underdog Round Robin, so much more bets are rolling
in lines, removing decisions need to be made. As our
volume podcast Boss Colin Cowhard likes to say there's a
sea of money out there as a reminder. The Favorites
podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five and now
new Bet three sixty five. Customers get two hundred dollars
in bonus bets when you bet five dollars, sign up

(01:43):
using promo code Favorites, deposit ten dollars. Place a bet
for five dollars to get two hundred dollars in bonus bets.
Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, features,
and more. Whatever the moment. It's never ordinary. At Bet
three sixty five. Must be twenty one or older in
present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,

(02:06):
or eighteen and older are in Kentucky. Gambling problem called
one eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off
in Iowa terms. Conditioned restrictions apply all right as always
on Thursday during the season, we like to hear how
the wise guys are responding to our Tuesday conversation. That's

(02:26):
how influential we are the lines move based on our conversations,
and pros feel compelled to weigh in on our opinions. Simon,
let's do sharp calls.

Speaker 2 (02:41):
Hello, who's there? I'm talking Rain rain telephone range.

Speaker 1 (02:46):
Somebody said, maybe what you do?

Speaker 2 (02:50):
All right? Chat? Well, off the top, we're against the
pros and a lot of our picks. What could go wrong?
They like the Ravens, and I mean, we could dive
into that game more. It might be win. They might
bullow me out of our Washington love.

Speaker 1 (03:02):
But I'm hoping they do.

Speaker 2 (03:04):
Okay, So yeah, it's the Joe public play. We talked
about it, but I don't know. I just think the
books they've been caught up to those Washington teams the
professionals think they have and that this number should be
seven and a half. And this Washington team is truly
at the peak of their value right now. So again,
you just said we're gonna dive into that one, So
I'm looking forward to that. We talked about the Chargers,

(03:27):
that Broncos game. The Pros they love the Broncos. It's
not as split as you think it would be. It's
not Pros versus Joe's. It's actually the public and the
pros on Denver and a couple of professionals are out
there taking this Chargers team. So that feels like it's
going to be a couple of pros and the books
against mainly the public. Right with that Denver number. Another

(03:48):
game we talked about that we love. We knew this
was going to be this way. We love the lines.
The pros absolutely love this Dallas team, and it reminded
me a lot of what we loved about the Rams
last week. Right, the Rams got the three and a half,
just like this Dallas number did. The professionals came in.
I'm obviously heavy with the money, have bet this back
down to three at most books. Well, I'll see how

(04:09):
you feel about it, chat, I haven't waivered. I still
like this matchup for Detroit. I think that what they're
betting on is a lot of historical trends and the
reason they're back in this Cowboys team they think. I
guess that the lines will be sluggish come up a bye,
but I'm looking forward for us bricking that one down.
You know, the Giants one I talked about that. I
love that game. The professionals love that. There there classic

(04:32):
spot of you know grab the three and a half
now if you want. But I already talked about it.
I could see this number going down if Neighbors gets cleared.
Hasn't got cleared yet, even though a couple of books
are already showing threes. I'm hoping, hoping Neighbors gets cleared today,
and that's when I look like a genius for getting
this number early. But right now, if you didn't get
the three and a half on Tuesday, you could still
get it right now. Neighbors has not been cleared, so

(04:53):
that number has not moved in the last one A game.
Me and you both love the Pros, love the Jets.
This is a nice spot the bet the Jets. It's
a good value on the number. So I'm sure that's
a game we're gonna break down as well. So at
the start of it, I was a little nervous because
they were on the other side of a lot of
our picks. But we came back around there at the end.
So we'll see how this week goes for us.

Speaker 1 (05:13):
Yeah, it doesn't feel like they are actually And so
there's two things we have a preponderance of this week
that are all sort of thematic home underdogs. A ton
of home underdogs, Evan, I don't know if you know
if this is accurate. I heard Stucky say this on
the podcast with Chris raibon the Action Network podcast on

(05:34):
Thursday Mornings said it might be the most home underdogs
in one week in NFL history. I'm not sure if
he got that from you, Evan.

Speaker 2 (05:45):
Right about in his article, but he did know. It's
smooth because there's only nine home dogs now because there
was ten, but the Tennessee flipped so favorite, right.

Speaker 1 (05:55):
And I want to talk about that game. So there
was ten, now there's nine. We talk about the public
a lot games in which the betting tickets are lopsided
for one team. That is a key indicator that the
public is on that side. A reminder that this season,
the betting public so when fifty one percent or more

(06:18):
of the tickets are on one side or the other,
they are twenty eight, forty six and two this season.
I don't know what ats percenters that is, if someone
can throw that in the chat, but it is the
worst start for the betting public through four weeks in
the past twenty years. And by the way, their best

(06:39):
week was last week when they went six and eight
and Simon and I happen to suffer the consequences of
some of that. So when we talk about betting against
the public, it is historically a good idea. It is
definitely a good idea. This year, we're going to get
into it starting with this very first game. And Simon,

(07:00):
Washington and Baltimore. Baltimore is still six and a half.
You are, and admittedly on the opposite side of the
wise guys on this. You said that on Tuesday when
you said you were into this game. This is great.
Fifty two percent of the tickets are in Washington, fifty
two percent of the money is on Baltimore. It is
a one hundred percent pros Joe's split. I have not

(07:24):
been able to come around to your side, and we
have been looking to sell the Commanders right. How much
higher can they fly? How much better can Jayden Daniels
really be? Matchup wise? This does play to the raven strengths.
They're one of the most efficient early down teams in
the league going against one of the worst early down offenses.

(07:47):
And we've said this before, like against the Chiefs last
season in the title game, which if the Ravens had
just run the ball, they would have dominated that game.
If they can do that keep Jayden Daniels off the field. Historically,
teams covering the spread by five points or more like

(08:09):
the Commanders only cover forty three percent of the time.
So that's that's my Raven's take. I know you have
Commander's take here, So I don't know if I can
help put you over the edge and being bullied.

Speaker 2 (08:25):
Can't because I got my man Evan here, who's got
some amazing numbers. If you look at just teams who
were playing on seven days rest or less that played
an overtime and now they're playing against a team that
hasn't played over time, they are just forty two percent
against the spread. Guess who fits that description This Raven's team. Yeah.

(08:46):
And there's there's a bunch of other stuff that trends
a point to this team here and this Commander's team.
I think you kneel it though. The fear here is
when do we get off this boat? And it was
same with last week. It was like I knew that
was the right spot to take watching against the Cleveland
But me and Chat have done this long enough to
know that eventually it's gonna fall off. Like it's just

(09:10):
how football is. You just can't be consistently great every
week and everything goes so smooth. And what this kid
doing is doing right now, Jane Daniels, that we've just
you know, I've never seen anything like it with a
rookie being so confident that nobody.

Speaker 1 (09:22):
Has seen anything. It's it's literally precedent setting.

Speaker 2 (09:27):
So I told you my view of it is pretty simple.
These professionals, they've bet ten K against them when they're
playing against Arizona. They've done twenty K when it was
against Cleveland. Now they're up to thirty K. I mean,
they're just going to keep up in the bet because
they know eventually it's going to hit for him. And
I just I don't agree with the logic, and I
don't know. I just I won't take watching on the
money line here because we know the Lamar stats against NFC. Right,

(09:49):
He's twenty one and one straight up against the NFC.
That's a big deal, right, He's historically even if he
doesn't cover the big spreads, which me and you always
love to fade Lamar in this spot like this is
when he does not cover, he does not cover.

Speaker 1 (10:03):
Then in eighteen is a spread of more than a
field goal. Say that number again, seven and eighteen as
against the spread as a favorite of more than a
field goal.

Speaker 2 (10:13):
So you know we have to do long term. This
is a bet you're supposed to make, like this is
a bet you're supposed to make on the Commanders because
long term it is a winner.

Speaker 1 (10:21):
Right, But there's so many trends that say long term,
this is a bet on the Ravens. There's one thing
you said last week that sort of hammered home. Why
that gives me a little pause, which is this Ravens
defense at the end of the game tends to go

(10:43):
soft right when teams have to pass against them. That
is their greatest weakness. They are not a good pass
defense right now, and Jaden Daniels the opportunity to have
to be throwing the ball. If they're down by thirteen points,
they're down by twelve points, they're down by ten points,

(11:04):
they're down by eight points, down by seven points. All
of a sudden, the back door is wide open. And
as much as I think the Ravens are the right side,
I don't want to bet on this defense against Jayden
Daniels at the end of the game where the Commanders

(11:24):
can't win, but they can certainly get closer, and nobody's
on that team is going to stop playing. That's what
worries me. But do I feel good enough about betting
on a back door hope? Do you know what I mean? Yeah?

Speaker 2 (11:36):
I think we're all just you again. Like I said,
we mean you've done this long enough to know that
this is just a fishy line. There's a couple of
fishy lines this week, and this is one of them
where it's like, I don't get why this number is
so big. I think they would be getting just as
much action on Washington if this was four and a
half then they would if it was six and a half.
So that's what say. It scared me a little bit
is the books are taking a position. Professionals are taking

(11:59):
a position with the books long term. That's usually a
nice spot to be. So unfortunately it's probably not gonna
be one of our five. But I don't know. I'm
dug in here on Washington. I do like washing at
this number. It's just all the other outside noise and
everything else is just giving me a lasitation here because
we just know something's off about this number in this line,
and to me, it's either the books. You're protecting knowing

(12:22):
that if they had made this number shorter, they'd be
get a lot more Washington money, and maybe they're taking
a position that way. But yeah, this is definitely one
of the games that, even if I don't have a
lot of money on, it's gonna be one of the
center TVs.

Speaker 1 (12:35):
Simon, we have to do two things on this show today.
We have to give people a foxhole and we have
to give people our big ball Better the Week presented
by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy John
has the support. Great games start with great underwear. The

(12:57):
sign over my shoulder says it all and Tommy John
makes the greatest and what we are going to do
today right now with our big balls, we are going
to tell people to do something that will require support
because you and I are both in on the New

(13:18):
England Patriots as seven point underdogs at home against the
Houston Texans. I like it for the spot, I like
it for the matchup, I like it for the number.
I like it for the trends. It is our big
Balls bet of the Week, Simon. I even check the weather.

(13:44):
It's going to be beautiful in New England. Let's roll
are you with me?

Speaker 2 (13:49):
I am Chad, But historically it's not ideal to bet
rookies in their first start. But I think from your
perspective and my perspective is this is when we want
to fade this Houston tea. They're on the road. CJ
is a favorite, and not even just a short favorite.
He's a seven point favorite in this matchup without Nico
Collins and maybe without Joe Mixon once again, And like,

(14:10):
to me, that's the big deal here. The fear for
us is Newland's offensive line is terrible and they've had
some really serious injuries to that that you know that
should really benefit this Houston team attacking. But isn't this
the quarterback you want behind a bad offensive line? That Broussette,
who's a statue back there. You want Drake May who
can move and you know, to me, he's gonna be

(14:31):
a one or two read and pull the ball down
and run the ball, which is honestly what I want
with this team right now, New England. So I get
people's hesitation here. I looked in our contest before we
got on here. It is six and a half. That's
obviously a choice will have to make. I mean maybe
if we get lucky, it gets seven and a half
comes Sunday, if more money comes in on Houston. But
you know, I'm not gonna let that scare me off here.

(14:53):
I think you're right, like, we have to play this spot,
play this number. This isn't that terrible of a matchup
for this New England team. The only pause for me,
once again is just they lost a lot of guys
in the offensive line and that that should benefit this
Houston team. But should they be a seven point favorite?
I don't think so. I don't think Chad thinks that either.
I think this is way too much respect for Houston

(15:14):
team that this season they're one and four against the spread,
like they're a team that the books have no they
can prop up and the public will come in heavy
on them and that's good for the book. So yeah,
I think we're getting an extra point and a half
of value here. Chet's I'll definitely take this number on
New England.

Speaker 1 (15:28):
Well, looks Simon, if you want to fade the public,
this is the game to do it, because about ninety
percent of the tickets are coming in on Houston. I
want to remind people underdogs of six plus points are
now eleven or eight straight up in sixteen to two

(15:48):
and one against the spread. Do you want to bet
a public bet against the public? Sorry, I just got
something in my eye. Bet against the public after a
bad game, you do sixty one percent against the spread
to the team that had just played terribly since two
thousand and five, that is the New England Patriots. I

(16:12):
agree with you. At first, I was a little bit
worried about Drake May being the starter but that offensive
because it feels like malpractice to put in that guy
behind that offensive line, which is terrible. But it's terrible
whether the guys are injured or not. And I agree
with you. What you're going to get from Drake May
is someone who's a really good athlete who's going to
be mobile and is going to move, so it actually

(16:35):
could counteract the pressure. Don't forget the Texans have the
best pressure rate of any defensive line in the NFL
and Dneil Hunter has the league best pressure rate of
any defensive lineman at twenty nine percent, So it doesn't
matter how bad this is, it might actually play to
their advantage. And you mentioned CJ. CJ on the road

(16:55):
this year is just a different player. His ypa yards
per attempt and his touchdown rate are both way way down,
and now they have no Nico Collins, who has been
the best wide receiver in the league. And as you said,
Joe Mixon he didn't practice yesterday, so again he's a veteran,
but he hasn't played in a few weeks. It's not
looking good for him to be at full strength on Thursday.

(17:19):
So I feel like this continues to be a good
spot and biggest luck rankings gap on the board twenty
five places, sixty two percent against the spread. Historically, go Pats, go.

Speaker 2 (17:39):
Yeah, I think both of you, but we both know
going into this why we might not cover. It's just
because Drake May is a rookie mick in his first start,
and he could do some really stupid shit. You know,
a little Bernie told me this. This move didn't come
from the head coach or the coaching staff. This came
from ownership. After watching that Miami game where you know,
if it was Drake May, I think they probably would

(18:00):
have beat Miami in that game. Brissett just played so
bad that I think after watching they just go, we
have to make this change. Because I do agree with
most people saying that, well, their whole reason for nowt
starting was their offensive line. They didn't want to ruin them,
right because they had such a bad offensive line. Now
the offensive line is even worse now they're playing them.
And I just told people it's the ownership. I think
they're just sick of watching Brusett and they're just like,

(18:21):
you know what, we see three other rookies out there
playing really well, winning games. We have to see what
we have here in this kid. So I totally understand
why they're putting Drake in at this point. I know
the fans are like not really understanding what the move is.
I think it's just it's watching all these other guys
enjoy their new toys and you're just sitting there with
Brissette and you're just like, we can't just keep throwing
this guy out here. This is just terrible football.

Speaker 1 (18:43):
You know who doesn't get swayed by public pressure. Good
moment and Simon Hunter, the co host of the Favorites podcast,
which is why even after a not great start to
the year, we're undaunted when we put in the New
England Patriots as our Big Balls Better of the Week
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(19:04):
comfortable underwear I've ever worn. It truly has changed my life.
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(19:26):
to Tommy John dot com slash favorites. All right, this
next game, I'm so bummed Simon India Tennessee. Tennessee is
now a two and a half point favorite. And on Tuesday,
we want to put a pin in this one and
see what the sharp calls might have to say or
how we felt after we dug in a little bit more.

(19:47):
And yesterday this line got up to one and a
half in the afternoon, and like, I didn't pull the
trigger because I kind of want to hear what you
had to say about it. But I spent twenty five
minutes on the game and I'd fallen I love with
the Titans, Oh geezs Home Dogs, and I was ready
to blow your mind with why we should do it.

(20:08):
And then late yesterday afternoon it had been Tennessee plus
one and a half flipped to minus one. Now it's
at minus two and a half. I don't know why.
I don't know if this is Pittman. I don't know
if this is because they think Anthony Richardson might play
Who's Yea better? But I was devastated because I felt
good about the Titans at plus one and a half.

Speaker 2 (20:30):
Yeah, it's Anthony Richardson, And I would be pretty terrified
if I was a fan of the Colts and realization
that Anthony Richardon is worth three and a half points
less than Joe Flacco. That is rough, But that's what
it has to be like to me. There's no other
reason for that type of movement, especially where you know,
I talked to a book maker yesterday. It's all Colts

(20:52):
money right now. So like that was where I was
gonna come around and be on your Tennessee side of
It was just like, okay, this this is clearly a
trap being laid by the books. The professionals came in,
they hit this number, the books moved that with him.
It's still a lot of Colts money. So I don't know, Chef,
if this got to three three and a half. I'd
really be tempted to come back on the Colts just

(21:12):
because this Tennessee team and Will Levis is that bad.
You know, this Colts team as much you want to
knock Anthony Richardson that he's not as good as Joe Flackett,
which I agree with. You know, his style of play
in that offense, when they cater around him, it's it's
pretty damn good. Like he threw what the beginning of
the season, he was winning close, ugly games, and he

(21:35):
was keeping his team in these ugly games. So there
might be a little bit of overreaction too much. I mean,
at what point does the line move too much on
him coming in? That's what I'll wait on now, because
I'm with Chad. I didn't understand this line when it opened.
I wanted to be in the Colts. Tennessee was obviously
the right side. Now it's moved so much. I'll just wait.
Hope this gets the three and I'll throw a little

(21:55):
bit on the Colts here. But I'm happy this one
won't be in our because I can't imagine me letting
Chad talk to Chad talking me into taking Will Loves
as one of our five here.

Speaker 1 (22:05):
And dude, my arguments were so good, Like, honest to god,
yesterday afternoon I was working on this. It's the game
I spent the most time on because all of a sudden,
I was doing the work and looking at the numbers
and seeing who was going to be playing, and thinking
about the bye week and thinking about when have the

(22:26):
cults done well? And why have they done well? And
what have the circumstances been, all those things that we
think about, and I'm like, Titans are the side, And
I was like, so in, I'm kind of glad I
didn't pull the trigger because now hearing you, I would
have been more nervous. But I definitely felt like I

(22:47):
was going to be able to convince you, like I'm
on the list. I made my preliminary list yesterday. They
were definitely like top six yesterday. The Titans to me
at plus at plus, you know, at a plus number.

Speaker 2 (22:59):
But I read your stat your favorite stat about you know,
a team moving from a dog to a favorite on the.

Speaker 1 (23:04):
Line seems to open his underdogs and close as a favorite.
Historically struggle to cover that number seventy one and one
hundred against the spreads in twenty nineteen forty two. So
the flip side of this is now all of a
sudden that makes the Colts decide.

Speaker 2 (23:25):
Yeah, and it's again the hesitation here. I mean, we'll
talk about there's a couple games this week with the
books are really taking up position on them, but this
is clearly one of them. Like if you look in
our app right now, it's still all Colts much.

Speaker 1 (23:37):
All cult Yeah, so it's ridiculous.

Speaker 2 (23:41):
Be careful out there, people.

Speaker 1 (23:44):
Yeah, I agree, Like if there's something something fishy, something fishy,
you know, something smell right, something to smell right. Arizona
green Bay, Green Bay still a five point favorite. I
am shocked that there is no conversation about this game

(24:04):
from professionals there.

Speaker 2 (24:06):
But it's split.

Speaker 1 (24:07):
It's like the line isn't really moving. Like everything I
said on Tuesday still to me is true today. It's
kind of a funky line. The eye test makes me
lean Packers Cardinals just won their biggest game of the year.
Like the biggest difference is to me, the Cardinals are

(24:31):
a very public dog, and that makes me feel better
about the Packers right now. I don't have it up.
I lost the tab, but the public number on this
game real quickly I'm getting to it is, you know,

(24:51):
sixty percent of the tickets are on the Cardinals, sixty
three percent of the money on the Cardinals. So it
feels like, at least from a public point of view,
they like the Cardinals, which makes me like the Packers
even more.

Speaker 2 (25:06):
Yeah, and the professional bits I talk to, it's split
where the trend betters people who just simply bet trends,
they love the Cardinals in this spot. A lot of
really good trends to this Cardinals team, and a lot
of good trends that fade Green Bay in this spot.
But a lot of the professionals I talk do they
like what we like here with Green Bay kind of
in a nice spot against the Cardinals team that you know,

(25:28):
we expect to have a letdown game. But yeah, after
reading Evans article, I got a little bit of pushback
on that Kyler is actually not as bad as you
think he would be in this spot. Historically, teams actually,
you know, beating divisional divisional games as a big underdog
actually performed pretty well on this spot going on the
road back to back weeks. But I don't know, Chad,

(25:49):
There's something I can't shake here where feels like we're
still getting value. And it's like, what, I still think
this number should be closer to six and a half seven.
I still like it. If you still like it, if
you want to put it in as one of our favorites,
I honestly wouldn't fight you on it. It's like I
bet this number, I bet Green Bay in this spot.
You know, to me, I get all the drama. They
have a wide receiver right now. They were still able
to figure out how to move the ball downfield last week,

(26:11):
and if that means getting more touches to their tight end,
Lafloor is happy to do that. Like this man just
knows how to game plan and just how to attack
defense's weaknesses. So you know where I stand with this
Arizona team. I think they do have a really exciting offense.
I just I just don't think they have the guys
on defense to get stops like they've just been so bad.
And if, like we talked about last week, the forty

(26:33):
nine ers gonna lose their kicker, that was a totally
different game. They looked like a totally different team in
that second half, where you know, we haven't really seen
that from multiple teams that have played Arizona. So yeah,
this is this is a tough one in your chat.
It's it is split. I'm trying to find an angle
on it. That really makes me love this Green Bay team.
At the end of the day, it's just I just
like the number. And that's the toughest part here.

Speaker 1 (26:53):
I know, I can't find I can't find the thing.

Speaker 2 (26:58):
Well, I was hoping edyone would give me some good
news on his trends, but it was all it was
all Arizona, man.

Speaker 1 (27:03):
It was all Arizona. And like, look, we go through
a checklist on these things, right. We look for the
home dogs. We look for games in which we think
the book is going to shade one side or the
other because of public perception of how a team played
the week before. The Bengals are a perfect example that

(27:25):
the car I mean, not the Bengal. The Bengals are
a perfect example. That the Commanders are a perfect example
that the Cardinals are a good example of that. But
then we're also looking at the matchups and we try
to glean like which side might have a true edge,
And then we're looking at the trends and like, nothing
says Packers other than to me, the eye test and

(27:49):
this team. There are some numbers nothing, but I mean
nothing overwhelming that says to me one side or the other, this.

Speaker 2 (27:58):
Might make you feel better though the Cardinals have allowed
This is from our guy Evan. The Cardinals have allowed
opposing qbs to complete a combined seventy two point five
percent of their passes this season. They're allowing eight point
fourteen yards per attentph, the third highest ranked market in NFL.
Their pass defense is thirtieth and drop back per EPA

(28:18):
and thirty second in drop back success rate. So this
is really us saying, jordan Love, this is a bet
on you. Like yes, like this is really us betting
on him to really dominate this Cardinals defense that has
been atrocious against the pass.

Speaker 1 (28:34):
I think you just perfectly captured what I was trying
to say in numbers when I said this is an
eye test game. To me, we've been seeing Jordana Love
get a little bit better and he wasn't preferred against
the Rams, but he made the throws he needed to make.
Now we're three weeks back from the injury, we're back
at home against a defense that you know, if you

(28:56):
want to compare to the Vikings, who was his first
game back is one of the best defenses in the
NFL and one of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL,
and Brian Flores. He is not doing that this week
against the Cardinals, and the Cardinals' offense is turnover prone
against a very opportunistic Packers defense. So that's why. And

(29:19):
I think we are getting a little bit of a
benefit in the number. Will it be on a final five,
I don't know, because we don't like to put too
many favorites in, and I do think we both feel
strongly about Detroit, but it certainly is in the mix.
For me, we still got to get a foxhole. We
haven't gotten there yet. Tampa Bay at New Orleans. Look

(29:46):
to me, this was a pass. The only reason I
put it in is because now I feel like it's
the Saints or nothing like. This number has moved so
much because of the Derek Carr injury news. I'm actually
not that afraid of betting on Spencer Rattler at home
as a dog or betting against the Bucks. Yeah, you know,

(30:08):
on the road as now nearly four point favorites, like
it just feels like too much to me.

Speaker 2 (30:16):
I know, I regret I'm making assignment, says guy. I
as soon as we got done the show, I always
just hammering that two and a half on that Bucks number,
and I told people I was gonna bet it, they
should bet it just in case Derek Carr was out.
But you're so right, Like now that it's three and
a half, I know we're supposed to take this kid
and this Saints team, but man, like, when you really

(30:36):
dive into it, like the Saints losing their center, I
didn't realize how big of a deal was going to
be for them. I think they're zero and three since
he's gone out. Yeah, like they just have not been
the same team since that offensive line got banged up.
And you know, say what you want about Derek Carr,
he's one of the best deep throwers of the ball
this season. Like he's been really good attacking deep downfield.
And that's what their offense is, right, the kind they

(30:58):
kind of burn you with the run and then they
hit you into play, actually go deep on you. I
don't know if I have faith in a rookie to
come in and run the style of offense. So yeah,
Chad's right, if you're out there and you want to
take the three and a half. I get it, but
I'm gonna dig in. I'm gonna take the Bucks here,
probably still at minus three and a half. I just
I keep thinking about them trying to run the ball
against Vita today, and it's just I don't know how

(31:19):
they establish a run with this Saints team. And you know,
say what you want about this Bucks team coming off
that loss to Atlanta. I feel like they're gonna be
desperate here. And that's really when we've seen the Bucks
be good when they're really not desperate but a little
bit right, like when they're not counted out. This is
when they're good. So Chad's right. Historically, I don't want

(31:39):
to back the Bucks here. We like them when they're
either a short favorite or a dog, neither of which
they are here. So I'm good with passing on this one.
But I get where you're coming from saying that it's
probably the spot to take New Orleans. I just I
can't get there. I just think they're a bad team
right now.

Speaker 1 (31:55):
I'm a little surprised to hear you say that. This
feels so chalky of you.

Speaker 2 (32:00):
Chalk wins, baby, not always, but certain spots. But yeah,
I'm with you. I wanted to be on the Saints,
but I don't think the numbers moved enough for me
to take them.

Speaker 1 (32:09):
God, that's fascinating. All right.

Speaker 2 (32:11):
Did you watch Spencer Rattler.

Speaker 1 (32:14):
I watched him in college. I actually there's a.

Speaker 2 (32:17):
Reason he was whatever it was, a fifth round pick.

Speaker 3 (32:19):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (32:19):
Look, I mean I felt like I think back to
those that year when he was taking over at Oklahoma
and everyone thought he was win the Heisman. Yeah, and
within four games, Caleb Williams was on the field bringing
him back against Texas, and all of a sudden, you know,
he was eighteen months away from winning the Heisman himself

(32:39):
and then becoming probably will end up being the greatest
quarterback in the history of football, with the most excellent
franchise at developing quarterbacks in the history of football. So
I've always felt a little bit bad for Spencer Ratler,
and I watched a bunch of those South Carolina games,
and he can sling it, for sure, but he's got

(33:01):
a little bit of a Taylor Heineke vibe, right like,
he'll make these plays that will feel great. This is
what I'm projecting, and then he's going to lose that
game for us. If we had bet it. You know
what I mean. Chargers at Denver, this one deserves some conversation.
I love this game for the Chargers on Tuesday. I
think you did too. From a ticket and money well.

Speaker 2 (33:23):
Just because we don't understand the line. Yeah, I told
you I had this plane at one and a half.
It was three. I was like, there's something I'm clearly
missing here with this Chargers team.

Speaker 1 (33:29):
Look, the Broncos are clearly the public dog. They're getting
about sixty percent of the tickets, and the line has
moved in their direction. It's gone for three to two
and a half, which I don't mind. I know that
taking the Chargers goes against the home division dog trend,

(33:51):
but there's also I think a sell high trend in
the Chargers favor, the same one I mentioned with the Commanders.
These teams that have been covering by more than five
points per game historically covered a forty three percent rate.
So like, I like a lot of what I'm seeing

(34:12):
for the Chargers, I do worry where giving them a
little bit too much credit for Joe Alton Rashaun Slater
coming back. We still don't know what's happening with Bosa.
Denver's run game is actually better than the Chargers. We
like to think about the Chargers as a run team,
but their early down success as a run team has

(34:33):
been better against common opponents. Bo Nicks has been a
better quarterback than Justin Herbert this year. I know that's
hard to say, but I'm not as all in as
I was on Tuesday.

Speaker 2 (34:48):
Well, just because of what we talked about. Like, I've
talked to a bunch of professionals and they like Denver
as well, and that's I'm with you on that where
it's like I want to be with you, guys, I
want to be on Denver. This feels like this is
their smart side, but you have the spidy senses like
I do. There's something off about this number, something very
telling that makes me want to take this Chargers team.
And you know, a couple of books moved them to

(35:09):
two and a half. I bet it. It's like, Okay,
now it's under three, I might as well take the
Chargers here. I thought it would keep going down. Now
most of these books are back up to three. So
it's a little telling, Like clearly there's professional money out
there that's driving this money. This number back up the three.
Now look at the matchup. I do want to give
a ton of credit to Joe Wall. Like this kid coming,

(35:31):
I knew he was going to be really good watching
his tape through the first three weeks before he got hurt.
He was really good. Like the way he handled Nex
Crosby as well without help was incredible. Like his one
on ones against him were so impressive for a first
year starter. To me, the what I think, what I
thought you thought on Tuesday is this offensive line can

(35:53):
neutralize the strength of Denver right now, which is their
front seven. Like that to me has been the difference
this season for den Is how good their front has
been playing. But you can counter that with a really
good offensive line and a great run blocking scheme, which
we believe the Chargers have here, Chad. So I do
think this is a nice you know, sell high in
the Denvers by low on this Chargers team, And if

(36:16):
it is minus two and a half, maybe I'll be
able to convince you. But I can see it's just
not one of your favorite bets, which I totally understand.
But yeah, this is another favorite just like Green Bay.
I'm dug in on here.

Speaker 1 (36:27):
Wow, God, that's so fascinating. On Tuesday, on Tuesday, I
was so dug in on Green Bay and the Chargers,
and forty eight hours later, I'm wavering because we's been favorites.

Speaker 2 (36:41):
We like ben dogs, that's who we are, right.

Speaker 1 (36:43):
But on Twoda and on Tuesday you were sort of
not as dug in on idea because.

Speaker 2 (36:47):
I didn't get this line at first. I was just like,
what are these guys? Seemed? But again, I've talked to
enough bookmakers professionals, and I see the reasoning behind it,
and sometimes again my model is just going to be wrong,
And that's what I was just. I was like, how's
my model so off on this one? How's it off
by point and a half? But yeah, my only hesitation
right now is still I don't really have concrete word

(37:07):
on what's going on with Herbert. And I've seen footage
him in practice and moving around. He looks all right,
but it's like it's practice, right, He's not really being pushed.
So that to me is the hesitation here where it's like,
would I much rather take Detroit than this number? Hell? Yeah,
Like I know exactly what Detroit is. I know even
if it's my three and a half, I have more
confidence than that than I do in the two and
a half Chargers here, So that's my hesitation.

Speaker 1 (37:30):
Here is just the Herbert News interesting. All right, all right, well,
let's talk about Detroit. Let's talk about Detroit at Dallas.
Let's talk about how this number got up to three
and a half. This was my exact decision, and I
do worry that I'm walking into it a little bit.

(37:50):
It's a road favorite. It's the public side. I did
bet at at three. I love it based on all
the matchups and the fundamentals, especially at the line of scrimmage.
Every advanced metric you can think of, run block, win rate,
adjusted line yards, whatever crap the geeks are making up

(38:15):
these days, has the Lions O line top two, top
three in the NFL, if not first, And every one
of those metrics has the Cowboys run defense rated as
I think the technical term is trash. So the Lions

(38:35):
are a more violent team and football is violence.

Speaker 2 (38:41):
Yeah, and again the reasoning for the pros, like when
I was talking, guys, why do you like this Dallas side?
I just don't think it's smart like they're saying. Dan
Campbell's an't predictable. This This team relies so much, so
much on their fourth down success rate. That's flukey game
to game, no way around it. Really, Ultimately that falls
on me. It's my fault. This Cowboys team is at

(39:02):
the lowest point. This is a good Bilo spot. I'm like,
they just won on a you know, a fourth and
four drive against Pittsburgh on Sunday night. So I just
disagree with a lot of it. And this is a
number that me and you might be totally wrong on.
We're missing something here, but you know all the historical
data that Detroit hasn't beat Cowboys in Dallas and forever

(39:24):
and all these different stuff. But it's like, I throw
it out exactly. I just told view it that way.
So I'm with Chad here, give me the best offensive
line that's great at run blocking against a suspect defensive
line that doesn't have their best run stopping defender. So
the only thing I can think here, we're gonna get
burned by a bad golf game because the last time
we saw him he was perfect. I think he was

(39:45):
eighteen for eighteen in their last win. You know, coming
off of bye week. Does that get in his head?
Does that get in the whole team's head? Right? Do
they come out sluggish in this game against a team
that technically this is a short rest week, right, they
were running away game on Sunday night, so they didn't
get home till what day morning to let their body
start healing. It's just everything lines up to love this

(40:05):
Detroit team. I do not get this line. So I'm
hoping this is just like Washington Cleveland last week chat,
where the books are dead fucking wrong hanging a three.
Even if this is minus three and a half in contest,
I feel like we're going to force this one in regardless.

Speaker 4 (40:18):
It has been years since the Detroit crowd has been
this excited about.

Speaker 2 (40:21):
The Lions talk about restoring the roar. Listen to him.

Speaker 1 (40:28):
God, it's so interesting you say that because I don't
look at Jared Goff as potentially having a down game
was because he was perfect. I think he was perfect
within the context of the offense. It's not like he
was thirty five of thirty seven for five hundred yards
and six touchdowns because they were coming back right Like
he was eighteen of eighteen and played a brilliant game

(40:54):
working off of the game plan. And I think that,
to me is indicative of what the Lions have done
on what Ben Johnson has done, what Dan Campbell has
dictated be done as the head coach of that team
in terms of what their emphasis is going to be
and honoring the fact that they have the best offensive
line in football and they can control the line of

(41:16):
scrimmage and he wants to be physical. And it's similar
to me, like the thinking about the Chargers. And that's
why both of these feel strange to me, Like why
are on other people seeing what I'm seeing? But I'm
glad you are. That makes me happy you and I

(41:36):
together like that. All right, So Detroit's in, I mean
Detroit's in. Yeah, Atlanta, Carolina, here we go. Jesus fucking
I hate everyone. I hate everyone associated with the Carolina
Panthers and bookmakers for posting this number. This number is
at six. I stole some stats. Actually Network has a

(42:00):
weekly passer play column, right, and this was a stat
in the passer play column this week. Atlanta's three wins
this season have come by combined nine points, and it's
possible the Falcons could have and should have lost all
of those games. Week two, game winning two minute drive

(42:24):
against the Eagles when the Eagles had a ninety seven
point six percent win probability with less than two minutes remaining.
Game three, a game winning fifty six yard field goal
after the Saints had an eighty four point five percent
win probability with forty one seconds left. Week five, over

(42:49):
time win against the Bucks when the Bucks had a
ninety three percent win probability with twenty two seconds left.

Speaker 2 (43:01):
Seriously, Chad, let's hop in that foxhole. Give me the
Carolina Panthers plus six. You know me, regardless of what's
going on, I'm a foxhole guy. I commit to a team,
I commit to a city. I'm a foxhole guy. Now
I have a stat that might make you feel a
little better from our guy, Evan. All Right, Kirk Cousins
career after a straight up win, He's thirty one forty

(43:23):
three and two against the spread, so forty two percent
after a straight up win, the second worst mark of
two hundred and forty four QB since two thousand and three,
ahead of only Jay Cutler. Now as a favorite of
four points or more in that spot, Kirk Cousins four
and fourteen against the spread, Like he just he's dog

(43:45):
shitting this spot historically, and we're getting an inflated line.
There's no one left, Chad, this is it me and
you are it. We're the only people left that are
still betting Carolina this week. And to me, this is
the exact spot we want to be in, Like Line
is going to struggle with is a team that defensively
has you know they can attack a young quarterback right

(44:07):
there's to me, their greatest strength right now is their
safety position. Like their safeties might be the best of
football at deceiving quarterbacks, giving them false reads, not letting
them get moved with the QB's eyes and something like
Amy Dolton can kind of neutralize that he's done and
seen at all, and you know this is historically a
nice matchup for him. Then you add in fact that

(44:28):
this is an outdoors game, which historically Kirk is better
indoors than he is outdoors. And you know the fact
that I'm looking at our action app right now, it's
less than eight percent of the bests, less than seven
percent of the money right now is on this Panthers team.
How do we not love this team to cover this game?
And just went straight up like, to me, this is
just everything about this game just screams upset and you

(44:51):
just read it though this Atlanta team has been incredibly
lucky and fortunate at the end of these games. And
even if we don't win this one outright, I feel
like we're going to cover it. Like it just feels
like either we're going to back door with Atlanta or
we'll get back door by Atlanta and we'll still cover
this six. So I love this number, the fact that
hasn't budged all week. You know, I was hoping for

(45:12):
a contest. This is gonna get up to six and
a half. I don't know if it's gonna get there.
We might stick five and a half, but I'm okay
with that. I just I love this spot for this
Carolina team.

Speaker 1 (45:22):
Of the tickets on the Falcons. Like you said, we
got a team coming off a bad game. We got
dogs of six plus points or more. We got division dogs. Historically,
this is the only side to play. Here's my challenge
to you. That's giving me a little pause, and it's

(45:43):
why I couldn't go full throttle on Tuesday. The Panthers
run blocking this season has been outstanding, right up there
with the with the Lions. This sort of amongst the
leave's best. They lost two offensive linemen on Sunday against
the Bears. That was huge for them. It changed the

(46:03):
scope of that game. And now we've got a team
that can't get any pressure from its defensive line and
a team that its only advantage was in run blocking,
and I don't think they'll be as good at run
blocking as they have been this season. I do worry
about their ability to move, and now I worry about

(46:24):
their ability to put any pressure on Kirk Cousins defensively,
and Kirk Cousins with a clean plocket, clean pocket, it's
pretty great. So that's my biggest concern. Like everything you're
saying is right, but as a matchup, I worry that
the Panthers will not be able to execute.

Speaker 2 (46:42):
No, it's a disagree with you. And they're one and
four against the spread and one and four this season.
They suck. This is a bad team, but this is
this is life beting bad teams. You're just playing the
numbers here. I know it's tough getting this foxhol Chad.

Speaker 1 (46:57):
Are we seriously talking about the Panthers and the Patriots
And with a couple more games to go that are
so gross when we are having a dreadful season so far,
Like you gotta be freaking kidding me.

Speaker 2 (47:15):
We're one five and zero week away from being five hundred.
We're not that bad.

Speaker 1 (47:18):
That's true. That's true, all right, Cincinnati at the New
York Giants. This was your Simon Says, and you were
spot on. It's definitely trending towards three. It's another home
underdog playing against a massive public favorite in the angles,
like I don't have the trends here, but I do.

(47:42):
Clearly the market believes you are. Simon says is accurate,
and we got to jump on the Giants.

Speaker 2 (47:48):
Yeah, and it was really honestly, we talked about it.
I was just I really thought Neighbors be cleared by now,
and this will move by half a point because to me,
that's what neighbors. Neighbors is worth half a point to
a full point to the spread for this Giants team.
And right now I have a greade at two and
a half. That's with neighbors in this game. If Neighbors
doesn't play, I'll move this number back up to three.
But I'm still having half a point of a key

(48:09):
number in this matchup against I think we can both
agree on I Cincina defense, that's just fraudulent, Like they
they had to show up in that game, right, They
just had to show up for one or two downs,
and they could not do it against Lamar. And that's
what I can't shake here. Where I want to be
with Chad. I wanted to be on the Bengals because

(48:29):
I've seen invested in their futures and I'm just like this,
this is a perfect bounce back spot for them in
their primetime game after that brutal loss. But I just
think the Giants are too well coached and they've been
playing too well to just be rolled over here. And
you know, even though I thought this was going to
be more public, I thought more public money would come
on the Giants. Chad just said it like this is

(48:50):
all Bengals money. All the tickets are on the Bengals
as well. So I would take the three and a
half here and hold and just hope maybe that you know,
Neighbors gets cleared and that would give me even more
confidence here. But if there is no Neighbors, Dad, I
don't know if I'm going to force us to put
this in as one of our five because it's just
to me that Seattle game that got a little lucky

(49:12):
to win that one without them, right, like a lot
of things broke their way that offensively, Seattle played terrible.
And you know, Daniel Jones had, my mind, the best
game I've seen him have since his first start ever
against the Bucks, which was like five six years ago.
So I love this Ghiints team. I love how their
defense matches up against this offense for the Cincinnati as well.

(49:34):
So yeah, you can see I really like this spot
for this team. And yeah, it's all about the numbers.
If this was two and a half, I'd be happy
to play Cincinnati here, it's three and a half, I'm
gonna take the value and play the Giants here.

Speaker 1 (49:47):
Well, look, as having is pointed out, this is the
first weekend where the spreads aren't so so tight, right.
We've got a few games that are six plus points
again the spread, But this has been an historically year
year for short numbers, and I think heading into the

(50:08):
week the average spread it was four point two points
per game. Those half points, just on a percentage increase,
mean more when the numbers are shorter, So I get it.
I'm a little anxious about this one for the contest,
like you said, because the neighbors, we got a lot
of games we can we can throw in there. Last

(50:28):
game also disgusting Buffalo with the New York Jets. So
now we know it's not going to be Robert Sala.
He was fired Tuesday morning right before we came on
the air. We know that there's going to be a
new play caller. We know you want to bet on
the team that is the that is against the public
after a bad game the Jets. We know we want

(50:51):
to bet on home dogs. We know we wanted to
bet the dead cat bounce one of stuck his favorite trends,
which is betting on the team that has a brand
new coach. I'll be honest, this this is a massive
pros Joe's game. Like seventy seven percent of the tickets
on the bills. The money is split but trending in

(51:14):
favor of the Jets, like it'll get to fifty to
fifty pretty soon, So clearly it's a it's a professional game.
It was that two and a half. Has it moved
back to two?

Speaker 2 (51:24):
No, it's still two and a half, so you can get.

Speaker 1 (51:26):
Two and a half. I kind of like this better
than the Giants and the contest. To be honest, I
don't know how you.

Speaker 2 (51:33):
Okay, I don't I like the Giants better, but that's fair.
Uh just it's the Obviously, the matchup for this Jets
defense is great. They always play Josh Allen really well.
To me, it's all the injuries to this Bills team.
The Bills just have so many injuries to keep players.
You just see last week against Houston had changed their

(51:55):
whole team, especially, you know this their offense is just
I don't know what they are yet. And you know,
through five weeks, you know they that they had moments
where Josh Allen looked incredible, right like the MVP we
all know and love, and then you just see the
hits piling up and it's just like they're asking so

(52:15):
much of their superman to do, Like when does this
catch up to him? And this is not a matchup
where you want to all beyond Josh Allen's shoulders, right
this this Jets defense they tend to turn him over
and they play him really tough. I mean, even going
back to the last three years when Sala was there,
they played really well. I know he's gone now, but
the scheme's still the same. The guy who's stepping in

(52:35):
there is kind of like not his clone, but basically
the same kind of guy. So yeah, looking at this matchup,
already liked the number. Now you're mixing in what you
just said. They got rid of the head coach, they
made a change offensive coordinator. I think if this hasn't
let a fire under this Jets team's ass, then then
in their season is over. Like this has to be

(52:56):
the everything game. They throw it all out there. So
even talked about Josh Allen being banged up, right, that
was another part of this. So we love, we love
this number. We love this matchup. Our hardest thing is
having to wait until Monday to know what our final
five is, so that that's the only thing I might
keep this out from being one of our five.

Speaker 1 (53:14):
But I know that's honestly, I know this sounds stupid,
but I got to travel on Monday. I like, I
really won't be able to settle in for the game,
Like I don't like when I get I'm traveling to LA.
I don't know if I can be awake when I
to watch the end of the game, Like I'm just
it's like I don't know if my heart can take it.

Speaker 2 (53:36):
No, it's tough, but yeah, I love this one, and
I think Chad does too, so uh this is probably
why this guy end up got on money line round
robin parlays. But uh yeah, we're literally betting on Josh
Allen to lose three straight games, which I thought was
scared than Evan. Nice Nice. Evan told us that actually
happened last year, So don't be too scared off by
betting Josh Allen to lose three straight.

Speaker 1 (53:57):
Games, turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for
the money line parlay. Well, listen, speaking of our money
line parlay. Each week we give out a two team
money line underdog parlay, and bet three six five boosts

(54:19):
the odds and highlights it on their site all weekend
under both game pages. And remember both games are eligible
for bet three six five's early payout promo, where your
money line pick gets marked as a win if they
take a seventeen point lead even if they lose. So
if you want to bet this, bettered at bet three

(54:40):
six five and the boosted money line parlay is a
better Panthers Jets, find the boost under either the Panthers
or Jets game pages on bet three six five. Also
a favorite contest reminder, Everyone's lowest weekly score in the

(55:03):
contest has officially been dropped. The updated total scores are
now on the leaderboard. We are officially in a race
for our forty thousand dollars first place prize. Good luck
to everyone. All right, now we got to get into
our money line underdog round Robin.

Speaker 4 (55:27):
There will come up Heayday, Halla lou Yo wanna pay Day.

Speaker 2 (55:31):
There will come.

Speaker 4 (55:32):
Up Payday someday. Someday, there will come up payday. Halla
lou Yo wa Payday, tire, I will come up.

Speaker 2 (55:40):
Payday some day.

Speaker 1 (55:44):
Clearly we're gonna have the Panthers and the Jets. We
should probably put in the Giants.

Speaker 2 (55:51):
Okay, do we go with a pick? Neither of us
are on, but the public loves in Denver money line.

Speaker 1 (55:59):
Okay, oh man.

Speaker 2 (56:03):
I mean, I really want to go against the Ravens,
but Lamar just doesn't lose those games. But that's that's
a nice value on Washington plus two thirty five.

Speaker 1 (56:11):
I'm surprised you're hesitating because I thought for sure you
were going to put that in there.

Speaker 2 (56:15):
I would, but Evans trends scare the shit, am. He's
only lost one game in his career, but again, it
was to the NFC East. So maybe, yeah, maybe that's
his scrypted nit NFC East.

Speaker 1 (56:23):
So now you're reaching deep into the bag of hope
to try to pull out your favorite get.

Speaker 2 (56:31):
It's a tough week to find dog wins. Honestly, why
don't we do the Colts? All right?

Speaker 1 (56:35):
Let's do the Colts?

Speaker 2 (56:36):
Yeah, all right?

Speaker 1 (56:37):
So the money line round robin that is gonna be Panthers, Jets, Giants, Broncos, Colts. Simon,
you can score letting.

Speaker 2 (56:48):
Now are we skipping it again?

Speaker 1 (56:49):
No, no, it's in the script. I'm going in order now. First,
I need your biggest bets.

Speaker 2 (56:56):
Who right now? My biggest bet it's our Detroit Chalk Giants,
not Chalk Jets, New England, and probably gonna be Green Bay.
I mean, like right now, my two biggest ones right
now are the Cowboys, I mean the Lions and the Giants.

(57:17):
But I can see me adding more to the other
positions by Sunday.

Speaker 1 (57:21):
It's weird how those could be the exact five we
end up putting in.

Speaker 2 (57:25):
It could be terrible for us, It's true.

Speaker 1 (57:28):
It's just like, if we were to look at it
right now, I think it'd be hard to leave New
England out it'd be hard to leave the Jets out unfortunately.
Like we both feel really good about Detroit, you know.

Speaker 2 (57:46):
Yeah, And.

Speaker 1 (57:49):
I feel like I convinced you on Green Bay and
now you've convinced me. Two favorites and three underdogs, like
very possible, that's where we end up landing. I'm not
in a rush to put anything in right now.

Speaker 2 (58:00):
Knows where we leave out. It's definitely gonna win.

Speaker 1 (58:03):
Yeah, So listen, Scoot Roulette, You're three and two this year.
Somehow I'm on in five? What I think I do
the math? Unless I did it wrong? Maybe, yeah, you won.

Speaker 2 (58:16):
I'm almost positive you one week one with me?

Speaker 1 (58:19):
Oh I did all right? All right, great, I'm winning four,
not you. But you get to choose, Scoot Roulette, because
you are winning the season long contest.

Speaker 2 (58:32):
All right, I'll be a scumbag. I'll take your pick.
I'll take De Troit minus three.

Speaker 1 (58:35):
You are a fucker that is ruthless. All right, you
know what I'm gonna do. Yeah, at this point, I
got nothing to lose.

Speaker 2 (58:49):
It's true.

Speaker 1 (58:50):
Give me the Pats plus seven?

Speaker 2 (58:52):
Love it?

Speaker 1 (58:53):
I mean, why not? Yeah, Scot proud you know what
he went as Scooch says when all hope is gone,
all that's left is relief. It's true, and in scuotru
led I've basically come to that Scooch isn't brought back
from the old school. Pod Jesus those are.

Speaker 2 (59:13):
That's high praise, man, I love it.

Speaker 1 (59:15):
All right, we got our last word here with Evan Abrams,
the director of research. Tell us something that'll make us happy, Evan,
the last word with Evan Abrams. We're finished talking. All right.

Speaker 3 (59:28):
Well, we're into bye season. So with bye season comes
me just telling you why Simon's picks are going to
hit this week. But let's aside from that, let's just
go with the Lions first. So team's off of bye
versus a team not, which is very easy. Last twenty years,
those teams win fifty six point one percent of games.
Awesome when they're road neutral favorites, that actually goes up

(59:49):
to seventy percent on the money line. Now that also
includes the Chargers this week, So a little bit of
buye back there in terms of how you guys might feel. Okay,
one more level it which I think actually Simon brought
this up earlier when talking about the game. So Dallas
had that comeback last week and during the fourth quarter
losing and won outright as underdogs. When those teams are

(01:00:10):
dogs again in their next game after that situation, exactly
as I spoke, thirty one and seventy one straight up,
thirty percent forty six fifty six against the spread, forty
five percent last decade. Just tough to get over that
and do it again. And then you're talking about short
week as mentioned, so a few factors would tell you
to take the Lions. Now, let's talk about the Giants

(01:00:32):
and Bengals for a second. So I kind of wanted
to focus on just Cincinnati in this spot. Lots of scoring,
high totals, ISH volatility isn't a great thing for predictability
and covering spread. So Cincinnati right now is the only
team in the NFL scoring twenty eight plus and allowing
twenty eight plus. Those teams through five games just thirty

(01:00:53):
seven and forty eight against the spread forty three percent
last twenty years. When they're away from home, that falls
to forty percent against the spread. When those teams are
under five hundred, that falls to thirty eight percent. So
just a good spot for the Giants in that one.
And then I'll end here this game really wasn't talked
about a ton. You've got Chad's Bears, you've got the
Jaguars too, pretty much live in London, so I kind

(01:01:14):
of wanted to give a few numbers on that game.
So Caleb Williams, by my data, will be the sixth
rookie quarterback to start an international game. They didn't wave
and want any Oh and to five straight up. Oh
and to five against the spread for the five lost
by fourteen plus points. So a bit of a difficult
spot in just a blanket term. Then you kind of
look at Jacksonville's side. Peterson's four and one straight up

(01:01:35):
on neutral sites, obviously winning the Super Bowl, but he's
three and one with the Eagles and Jags overseas. Jags
are actually themselves over five hundred straight up in ATS
and international games, which I didn't think was actually the
truth till I looked at it. Trevor Lawrence his fifth
game overseas, He's three and one straight up at ATS
against the number, He's actually scoring twenty two points per

(01:01:55):
game in those games. I'll go one step further before
I get out of here. So this is Trevor and
Doug's fifth international game. It's only Caleb Beniberflus's first. Those
coaches with two plus game experiences in that international game
four and one straight up, when the QB also has
a two plus experience, they're two and oh straight up.
Very small samples, but probably just tells you what you

(01:02:16):
would know anyway, which is experiencing these short week, weird
overseas when you go games kind of matters.

Speaker 1 (01:02:24):
That means it's gonna be hard to bet the Bears
this week.

Speaker 2 (01:02:29):
Yeah, that's what we were saying. You know, you're supposed
to bet the Jacks here, but it is. It is tough.
It's a tough one.

Speaker 1 (01:02:35):
It's a really tough one. As a reminder, the Favorites
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(01:03:19):
restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next
episode of the Favorites on the Action Network. You two
page on Sunday night, seven thirty pm Eastern to recap
our NFL week six. Downloadus from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever
you get your pods. Rate review, subscribe me us five stars,
say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift until next time.

(01:03:40):
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