The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Wild Card Weekend - The Volume

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:08):
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
I am Chad Noman of the Action Network. I am
live from my Tommy John home studio and them joined
as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre,
my BFF professional better Simon Hunter.

Speaker 2 (00:30):
Hello, So I'm in, Hello Chad.

Speaker 3 (00:33):
How are we doing, dude?

Speaker 1 (00:35):
Today is our NFL Wild Card Best Bets episode. We're
gonna do something a little bit different with today's show. Normally,
we only look at sides for each game. Those are
the most popular bets, and we do the contests that
are tied to them.

Speaker 2 (00:49):
But there are fewer games.

Speaker 1 (00:51):
Our opinions on the sides we like haven't changed that
much since Tuesday. We've gotten some new intel, then lines
are moving, so I think we're feeling more strongly about
some games. But we're adding any other best that we
like as well, which a couple people have emailed me
about if we could add that.

Speaker 2 (01:09):
Hopefully I will give folks more to look for, more
to root for, more to think about.

Speaker 1 (01:14):
For this weekend, we will of course get into the foxhole.
We'll give out our Tommy John Big Ball's bet of
the week, We'll discuss your biggest bets, We'll do our
boosted money line, underdog parlay, so on and so on
later on in the show. Today, Simon and I did
have a chat. This was fantastic and I encourage everyone
to listen with Daniel Winsenberg, the pride of North Dakota

(01:37):
bow Bells, North Dakota, population three hundred and he lives
outside of bell Bells.

Speaker 2 (01:42):
He's the winner of.

Speaker 1 (01:43):
Our forty thousand dollars first place prize and the favorites
Pro Football Pick Them contest, an absolute pleasure with a
kicker surprise ending that could have Simon and I end
up being the most popular names in our all of
bow Bells, North Dakota. So please listen for that's He's

(02:04):
great and he deserves the attention. Bets are rolling in,
lines are moving, decisions need to be made. As our
volume podcast, Boss Colin Cowhard likes to.

Speaker 2 (02:12):
Say there's a sea of money out there.

Speaker 1 (02:15):
As a reminder, the Favorite Podcast is presented by Bet
three sixty five and now new Bet three sixty five.
Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets
when you bet five dollars. Son of using promo code
favorite deposit fifty dollars. Deposit ten dollars in place to
bet for five dollars to get one hundred and fifty
dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used
on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment,

(02:37):
It's never ordinary at bet three sixty five must be
twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
or one eight hundred bets off an io terms. Conditions
restrictions apply all right, as always on Thursdays, we like

(03:00):
to hear how the wise guys are responding to our
Tuesday conversation. I especially like to hear how they're responding
to me and our Tuesday conversation.

Speaker 2 (03:11):
But whatever the.

Speaker 1 (03:12):
Case is, they feel compelled to weigh in on our opinions.

Speaker 2 (03:15):
Let's do sharp calls.

Speaker 3 (03:20):
Hello, who's there, I'm talking Rain.

Speaker 1 (03:24):
Rain telephone rang somebody saying maybe wanted to do.

Speaker 3 (03:28):
In Yeah, it's a week of some disagreement. Chat, I
think we already knew that coming into us. We loved
the Chargers, so let's start with that one. We are
firmly with Joe Public on that one basically, and you
probably have talked to you. For the most part is
on the other side. And I kind of knew they

(03:48):
were going to because all the trends kind of favorite
the Houston side. But I thought it would be more
people basing off their models and just you know what
they've watched, And I think they're just going to go
play the statistical numbers and the you know, the fact
that the percentage of say, if you long term you
bet Houston's exact spot, that's a winner long term. But

(04:08):
me and Chad ain't here to do that. Me and
Chat are going with a bet that we think is
smart and we think we're getting a great number, especially
in my two and a half. So that feels like
the biggest sharp trap of the week. It feels like
they're walking into one and that everyone just pretty much
patting each other on the ass and saying how smart
each each other are on Houston, And you know, could

(04:29):
they cover it? Sure? Houston's been a team that's played
close games all season. I don't fault the for taking
the three, but I just don't understand the logic not
taking the two and a half on the charters. To me,
that's that's the no no. So I'm excited to break
that one down even more because I do have opinion
on that total next game. Shockingly, Chad, the the pros

(04:50):
i've talked you like the Ravens, which I am shocked by.
I thought it would be Pittsburgh heavy. It's not. As
obviously there are pro like me who just are taking
that ten, Like, how do you not take that? Plus ten?
That was such a great number, still feels like a gift.
Even Beth three six'y five is still holding at ten
at their book. But when you talked a lot of
these booksmakers, it's like the amount of money they have

(05:13):
on the Ravens, adding in professional money that's come in
on the Ravens, especially early, like the Ravens open seven
and a half, like that was basically all the money
they got earlier was just professional money and pretty interesting
hearing guys though, still willing to take the Ravens at
minus nine and a half, and I just I don't know.

(05:34):
It feels like I'm taking crazy pills here, and I
get where they're coming from. Right, Tomlin hasn't won a
playoff game since whatever it is, twenty seventeen, twenty eighteen.
I understand that, but I just can't. I can't believe
these guys are this confident, taking a double digit favorite
in and against a divisional foe who's they've struggled against.
So again, that's another game we're going to go through.

(05:56):
You were on the professional side in this bill is
one I thought more pros were on Denver. It's it's split,
for sure, but it's more pros I've talked to do
like this Bills side, and it is going back to
what you know, we talked about with Evan or I
guess we haven't yet, but just basically, these quarterbacks making
their first start, it's it's a real thing. We have

(06:18):
the numbers that back it up. Like it's just different.
The playoffs are simply just different. And now you factor
in that this is a rookie making their first start,
and yeah, we had a little run there where you know,
Brock Purty won his first start CJ last year right
against Joe Flac on the Browns won his first start,
so we haven't had a little comeback to other way.
That makes even more confident in this going the other

(06:38):
way because we are due for more of these first
time quarterbacks to get lost this year. So that was
when they jumped out. I did not think pros would
be on the bills, but they love the bills. We
are on the public side, chat, I think you already
knew that our our egos love is heavily public, you know.
I think I, you know, talked to a handful of

(07:00):
guys that had bet the Eagles, but none of it
with confidence. Everyone and I've talked to you thinks is
a trap game for this Eagles team and that you know,
too many people are discounting and counting out this Green
Bay team. That I mean, I think you touched on
a little bit Chad with the floor. They're just such
a well coached team, and he performed so well as
an underdog. This is a really a little floor spot,

(07:21):
like in this exact scenario, he tends to cover these numbers,
so you know, doesn't make me feel great. I got
this out a minus six number, and I had a
couple of guys being like, you're fucking way off. That's
a bad number. You should have trusted your original number
of four. And I just I push back on that.
I just think this Eagles team is just so good
across the board, and they're fully healthy. Even watching Jalen

(07:42):
Hurts in that practice the other day, it's like, you know,
you would never know he's coming off two weeks of
a concussion not working out like he just looks fully informed,
ready to go. So I'm excited to break that one down.
See if if you're confidence a way, they're all like,
you know, I still love the Eagles, but I'm probably
gonna invest a little bit more in green Bay first quarter,
green Bay first half. So that'll be my a little

(08:02):
bit of a hedge hred trust the Eagles to really
roll them in the second half. But I agree with
the professionals that they they think the Egles might come
out sol a little sloppy against a green Bay team
that is going to be prepared and ready to play
in this game. You know, here's a game that we love.
The professionals love Washington, Tampa Bay. We love Tampa. The
pros love Tampa, public loves Commanders. We already know that,

(08:24):
So that I don't even need to dive into that
too much. We'll break that down we go through the games.
Last one not a shocker at all. I mean, this
is another side. We love Rams, the public loves loves
loves Minnesota. I haven't talked to a single pro yet
that has taken the Viking side, And you know, a
couple of guys I talked to haven't bet this. Their

(08:45):
view is I can wait and maybe this number will
flip and I can get this Vikings team as a dog,
and that's the position I want to be on. And
I joke with them. I'm on the complete same mindset
from the other side, where it's like I've been betting
the one and a half on this Rams team, but
I really have been loading up on teasers with them,
like this is my favorite teaser team, them and the Bills.

(09:07):
I know it's sacrilegeed to tease through zero Wong teasers,
but I kind of don't really respect Wang teasers, especially
when it comes to playoff time. I feel like it's
a little outdated. I've been teasing the Chargers through zero
up to three and a half, so I have a
couple them at three and a half Rams up to
seven and a half. I just love this number. And

(09:28):
you know that's a game where yes, we know what's
happening in California. Me and Chad, we think of all
these people and all these guys' families who are being
affected by these fires, and could that be a major
issue for a lot of these RAMS players who do
have stuff going on outside the field and they have
major distractions of course, but me and Chad we can't
handicap that, Like we're just going off the numbers here.
So yeah, for the most part, Chad, we're dead on

(09:50):
with our love of the Bucks and the Rams. On
the other games, it all sounds pretty split up between
the professionals, So it's it's an interesting week for sure.

Speaker 1 (09:59):
Well let's get into it. Let's start with that Chargers
game right now. The number at bet three sixty five
got this Chargers minus three.

Speaker 2 (10:06):
The total is forty two and a half.

Speaker 1 (10:09):
There is a two and a half out there, it
is available. I've hit the two and a half a
couple times. I know, Simon, you've probably hit it more.
This was my exact decision stats that I didn't mention
on Tuesday, And again, I know you know the wise
guys they have been leaning into the Texans. If you

(10:31):
listen to Stucky in Raybon on the Action Network pod,
they freaking love the Texans. This weekend, Stroud finished thirty CJ.
Stroud finished thirty first in EPA and completion percentage over expectation. Okay,

(10:53):
the Texans finished thirty first in early down success rate
head of just the Browns.

Speaker 2 (11:01):
We talked about the O line. CJ.

Speaker 1 (11:03):
Stroud pressured twenty eight percent of his dropbacks. That was
second most in the league and one of the reasons
a lot of the analysts all season long, if you
read anybody who was breaking down CJ. Stroud's troubles, they
were talking about his achilles heel. This year has been
against defenses running two high safety schemes. Chargers do list

(11:29):
nearly sixty percent of the time and Shrouds YPA against
this is twenty eighth, and his QB rating is thirty first.
So I still feel good about it. I am not
expecting some kind of miraculous recovery that all of a
sudden this team is going to be different than it

(11:49):
was all throughout the season. Normally, in the playoffs, when
teams lose, they lose because of the same things they
did all season long, Right, isn't that always what happens?
Like you watch a playoff game, and the things that
have been bugaboos for teams throughout the year are the
reasons why they.

Speaker 2 (12:04):
Can't convert, can't get over the top in the playoffs.

Speaker 1 (12:09):
The things that the Chargers are good at are the
things that the Texans have struggled with. I don't get
the love, Simon, I don't get the wise guy love
for the Texans here at all.

Speaker 3 (12:23):
Well, again, a bunch of different things that I think
they look into, especially if you're looking at the trends,
is this is the you know, another tough road game,
a tough spot for this Chargers team, And historically when
teams have played a bunch of road games in a row, right,
doesn't work out for them right heading to the playoffs,
we've kind of seen it that, you know, Evan had
an amazing stats since two thousand and three, teams that

(12:44):
are on their third road games or later on any
road trip, they're forty five and seventy one straight up,
so thirty nine percent. And these teams are five and
twelve straight up over the last three seasons of this
exact spot So that's kind of logic right that they're like.

Speaker 2 (12:57):
Oh, you know what I would like to know.

Speaker 1 (12:59):
I'd like to know maybe Evan, you can figure this
out and we can talk about it in the show.
Teams that are on the third road game as a favorite,
I don't know what this sample sizes. This is going
to be for Jim Harbaugh, Bill Belichick, the coaches who
I think are real difference makers. You know, you can

(13:21):
throw in some John Harbaugh, other coaches who in these
past twenty years have been real factors when it comes
to power rating these teams, and I think this year
it matters more than ever, and I just think that's
going to put them in a better position to accumulate
points in the exact spot where they need.

Speaker 3 (13:43):
To and just to close it out. And basically a
team like the Chargers playing this exact spot. So three
straight road games into the playoffs, they're eleven and twenty
seven straight up. So they only went twenty nine percent
of the time. So that's what I said on Tuesday.
I was fine with me Chad that thirty percent. Like again,
it happens obviously that one out of three times, So

(14:04):
we're basically banking on that here making this bet for
the most part, but it really is all about kind
of what you just touched on there. It's about this
Chargers team they're coaching Herbert himself, like, I just have
a ton of confidence guy, especially as a favorite on
the road. Like he's been really good to us as
a favorite on the road, and usually when the books
price him that way, it tends to go our way.

(14:25):
And you know, he's seven to one against the spreadings
exact spot his last eight, so it's like he clearly
has done really well in this exact scenario of being
on the road as a favorite. And you know, it's
interesting talking to pros just why they're so confident in
this Texan thing. When you do push them chat and
you try to get them to really break it down,

(14:47):
it feels like they're betting on a Texas team that
doesn't exist anymore.

Speaker 1 (14:51):
Like I was just those are the exact words when
you were saying they're betting on the Texans teams. I
was in my head, I'm saying that doesn't exist. It's
not a Texans team that they think they're betting.

Speaker 3 (15:01):
And a Texas team.

Speaker 1 (15:03):
What they're really good at on defense is pressuring the quarterback.
The Chargers have two of the best tackles in the
NFL and Joe Alton Rashaan Slater, so the one thing
that they're great at, and their secondary is so banged
up they're down to third stringers across the board when
you're talking about quarnerbacks like well, not Stingley obviously, but
in other positions they can stop the pressure because their defense,

(15:26):
their tackles are so good.

Speaker 3 (15:29):
And I do see a word where they can cover
the summer just because yes, if the moment's too big
for Herbert and Houston's defense, who has played really well
all season. We know how great of a coach Damiko
Rans is and how he just gets his defense fired
up and ready to play in almost every game. That
is their formula, right, somehow keep this game ugly and close.
But we've seen it. The Chargers team. They just don't

(15:51):
play that. They don't they're never the ones that make
the mistakes, and if you want to play ugly, they're
happy to play it ugly, like they are more than
happy to do that. But we've seen them transition this
second half of the season, where you know Herberts has
gotten so much more comfortable. These wide receivers and his receivers.
You know, we can knock them for their drops. They
have gotten better as the seam's gone long here and
his connection with Lad McConkie's grown as well. So it's

(16:13):
like it feels like these are two different teams that
I don't think the professions have given enough credit to
the Chargers team, how they've improved and discrediting this Houston
team that have lost so many key pieces to this team.
So yeah, weill me and Chad be killing ourselves with this.
Lane's on two if the Chargers win, but it's by
two and we've been choking all season, how important two
and a half is? Yes, that's gonna hurt. But I

(16:35):
have to trust the number here and think me and
you are getting a really good number. And if you're
like me and you're kind of feeling like a little
bit of a coward with this one, just because the
pros are so heavy on Houston, tease it through zero. Like,
if you're getting charges three and a half, there is
no scenario, no snare I see Houston winning by more
than three. If they do win this like that to
me is by far the safest bet. But if you'd

(16:56):
like to be a risk taker, which me and Chad are.
I don't know how you don't take this Chargers number here,
and you know, obviously I keep talking with this defense here.
I love the under as well, Like this is to
me another play on this game where it's like, that's
way too high of a total. I got it at
forty one. It was forty three and a half. It's
been bet down to forty two and a half. Still

(17:16):
that's a key number. You're still getting great value on
this number. So this is there's a couple of games
I like the under end. This is towards the top
of my list. I really love this under.

Speaker 1 (17:24):
Yeah, I was going to say, I think I lean women.
I want to talk about the total, so I lean
that way as well. I think it'll be conservative. I
think they're going to try to limit their own mistakes,
potentially forcing some from Stroud and.

Speaker 3 (17:39):
We'll know we'll be dead and playoffs are weird. We'll
be dead in a minute chat if this goes over,
like if it's twenty to fourteen the first half the
writings on the wall, we're dead. But that's that's my
view of this, where it's like I can just see
one offense of one of these teams showing up. The
other other offense just not going to get it going because,
like we said, these are two defenses that do know
how to scheme it up and play well against teams.

(18:00):
So yeah, I do. I do love this total.

Speaker 1 (18:02):
Pittsburgh is a nine point underdog right now at bet
three sixty five against the nine and a half I'm sorry,
against the Ravens. The total forty three and a half.
This was Simon says when it was at ten. It
has moved to nine and a half. It's at ten
in some other places. It was ten at bet three

(18:25):
sixty five this morning and now it's back down.

Speaker 2 (18:27):
So we do not officially know.

Speaker 1 (18:30):
The status as a Flowers. He did not practice earlier
this week. Ian Rapaport of NFL Network has reported it
that he is a long shot to play. Like we
talked on Tuesday, we were going to run through some
of the trends for the Steelers, and it does worry
me how well teams that are double digit faves have

(18:52):
performed in the wildcard round.

Speaker 2 (18:55):
But this is not the same Steelers.

Speaker 1 (18:58):
Team I think that lost thirty four to seventeen to
the Steelers that lost thirty four to seventeen to the
Ravens a few weeks ago. Reminder, under Tomlin Steelers are
six and one as a dog of more than three
points versus the Ravens. That one loss was on the
twenty first of December. Over the last twenty years, underdog

(19:20):
in the series, seventy four percent underdog sixteen three in
one since twenty fifteen. Tomlin twenty one, sixteen straight up,
nineteen fifteen three against spread versus John Harbaugh as a
dog thirteen three and two. Now, you tell me how
much you hate playing Lamar in the playoffs, because you do.

(19:43):
But I just think the Steelers defense is better than
it was when they played on the twenty first. They
were missing a lot of guys in the secondary. We
talked about Joey Porter going out of the middle of
that game. That's when the tides started to turn and
they really needed to be perfect on offense and they weren't.
So I'm still good with the Steelers here at ten. Obviously,

(20:06):
would rather have the ten than nine and a half.
I'm surprised the wise guys are so confident about the Ravens.

Speaker 3 (20:12):
I think they're confidence stems from the struggle of Russell
Wilson down the stretch and if even that game you're
talking about, if you go back to it, it's a
seven to seven game and they are driving the field
Pittsburgh and they're into the red zone. Russell Wilson runs
with the ball and instead of sliding, he tries to
get that extra one or two yards, gets popped and fumbles.
That to me, would flip that whole game. Like that

(20:33):
gave all the momentum back to the Ravens and then
we know the issue, right they got Yeah, two more
injuries on the defense you just talked about. Joey Porter
Junior went out in that game all of a sudden.
It was just rolling. Like Lamar was into his zone.
That's the key for Lamar. If he gets into his zone,
into our rhythm, we're probably gonna be cooked here, brother,
Like this guy is the two time MVP.

Speaker 2 (20:53):
Might be three times, like you know, she don't know,
should be three times?

Speaker 3 (20:57):
Wow, really you're one of those Oh my god.

Speaker 1 (20:59):
Totally if you if you took the names off the
list and did not know Lamar Jackson had won the
past two and you looked at the numbers, it's not
even comparable. It really isn't. He was such a good
quarterback this year, so much better statistically than Josh Allen

(21:20):
in so many ways. It's not even it shouldn't even
be a conversation.

Speaker 2 (21:26):
It really shouldn't.

Speaker 3 (21:27):
That's fair. Maybe it's kind of like Leo getting his Oscar, right,
I think that's how I feel with Josh Allen. It's
like he has earned the right to get this MVP
in my view because of what he's done over his
career and this amount of time. And I agree with you, Lamar,
incredible season and everything like that, but I am I'm
one of those people. I'm kind of dugg in on
Josh a. I think he deserves it for the season

(21:47):
he put together, just because it's all about expectations, right,
And I look back to the start of the year
and I just I'm just blown away with Josh Allen
accomplished with this team that we thought had nothing left
on the flip side of Lamar, not that I'm saying
I expected it, but come on, man, the dude had
he got Derrick Henry. That was a huge upgrade to
this guy who was already MVP before getting the second

(22:09):
third best running back of football. But yeah, for this
game specifically. You know, we know the stats about Lamar, right, Lamar,
me and Chad have talked at NAS about this guy.
He is probably my favorite quarterback to bet on in
the regular season. He just is a cash cow. He
is so good to me and Chad and we kind
of have a rhythm with him. We know at this number,

(22:29):
you take him when it's under three, right, you take
them when it's above three, either fad or you just
stay away. And you know, we can't avoid the numbers
that are out there for the playoffs. And I know
the fans get upset about and they're like, you can't
keep judging right. Eventually, Peyton Manning got over the hump.
I agree, you eventually will get over the hump. I

(22:50):
just I'm not going to be betting on it. Like
he burned me so hard last year where it was
lined up perfectly for him and his team, he couldn't
do it, and like he turned back into Lamar. And
you know in the regular season, Lamar twenty and five
straight up in night games. Incredible, twenty and five straight
up in night games. He plays like that's an insane

(23:10):
stat that he's eighty percent. In the playoffs, he's owing
two in night games, and you'd be like, well, it's
it's individual games. Okay. He lost the Bills on the
road seventeen to three, and then he lost at home
twenty eight to twelve against that Titans team. And that
is if you go through the day, like you said, Chad,
double digit favorites have performed really well seventeen and one

(23:30):
straight up. That one loss is that Titans game. So
to me, there is something with this Lamar stuff where
it's like you can't overrate his struggles in the playoffs.
I know people want to keep brushing it by, but
it's like, if you look at the list of two
time MVPs, just about all of them have Super Bowl rings.
He's one of the few guys that, you know it
just has not lived up to the hype and performance
of the regular season in the playoffs. So to me,

(23:54):
this is the worst match that he possibly could have got.
He's going against a divisional foe that has his number,
that plays really well against them. And I am very
dug in on this, like I just love this Pittsburgh team. Now.
The only reason I'm not hammering people being like you
have to take Pittsburgh's money line you gotta do. It
is just because of tomlin struggle in the playoffs, like
his team just has not been winning these playoff games,

(24:14):
and that is you know, you could say, well, you
guysn't have the quarterbacks and everything like that. I do
agree with that, but some of it is on Tomlin,
like he's just not had great decisions at the end
of these playoff games. And you know, I'm gonna be
betting it, but it's not gonna be me and Chad's
money line around Robin, right, We're not that crazy at
this point, so or I should say our parlay we
give out. So I do love it. I'm betting their

(24:36):
money line. But to me, the smart safe bet here
is taking the plus ten if you can still get
it on this Pittsburgh team. I just think that's way
too much value on a game that's going to be close.
And Chad, we know the deal here. If we get
one or two of those magical Pittsburgh bounces which we've
lived off of, they could upset and win this game.
Like if the momentum flips to them, Lamar is going

(24:58):
to feel all that weight on him, and that to
me is something that is kind of the human element
of it. It's something that I can't put into my model,
and we really can't put a number to it. But
that's a real thing. Like if it's midway through the
third quarter, Lamar as zero touchdowns and a pick and
he's down by say three or four points, he's going
to be pressing, like there's no way he's not going
to be pressing and try to push a ball downfield

(25:20):
and we're asked, you just said it from the top
of the show. Jay Flowers missed two practices in a
row at this point, and he's a long shot to
playing this game. That's another thing that's not being talked
about enough. So yeah, I'm I think you clearly can
tell I am heavily invested in. I really like this
Pittsburgh number.

Speaker 2 (25:34):
I'm on the number two, don't. I don't buy the Lamar.

Speaker 1 (25:40):
Underperforming that in the playoffs, that data set for the
zero to two specifically, Sometimes that just feels it feels
too small and circumstantial. And I feel like these players
change and get more confident. And I think if and
this is an interesting bet, the Ravens are great in

(26:03):
the first half. If the Ravens do what they're supposed
to do in the first half. I think then he
will be in a good position. I also agree with you,
if they're struggling in the second half, some of that
weight will come to bear. I'm not sure I buy
the theory of anti Lamar as much as i'm pro
spot pro Steelers being better than they were when they

(26:26):
played you a little less than a month ago. One
of the hot bets for Action is and likely to
me a hot bet amongst regular betters is Baltimore first half,
which is six and a half. Lamar are the best
first half quarterback in the NFL in the past twenty years.
Steeler is the worst first half team against the spread

(26:47):
in the NFL since twenty twenty one. Give a thought
on the first half the Steeler the Ravens six and
a half.

Speaker 3 (26:55):
Well, I'll give you more useless numbers while I'm still here. Then, Lamar,
in his career chat and play off game, he's never
won a game where his team is given more than
thirteen points. So, I mean, that's that's pretty alarming.

Speaker 1 (27:07):
That don't take it personally that I'm not into one
of your stats.

Speaker 3 (27:13):
I haven't taken a personally. I'm standing up for find you,
but no, I just I just my whole point of
just breaking down is that he's been choking brother. Like
guys want to deny it and be like, say what
you just said. They're like, well, he can grow, he
can change, all right, Well, let's fucking see it. I'm
gonna bet against it because it's like, I have no
data to back it up that he could. He has
grown and changed. He dominates the regular season, and then

(27:35):
he falls apart and does nothing in the playoffs. So
we're we're gonna see it. Like these defenses know they're
gonna stack the box, They're gonna make Lamar pass in
this game. So yes, if Lamar doesn't get tight, we
know he's the We just said it. He's the second
or first best quarterback in football right now. So I'm
with you, I get it. So yeah, that's just that's

(27:56):
just my viewpoint is. I think it is a great
number with Pittsburgh and everything like that, and my model
backs it up. But the humanil of it of it,
I'm just thinking psychologically, he just seems like he gets
flustered in the playoffs and that's panned out these last
couple of seasons.

Speaker 1 (28:11):
What do you think of the total to forty three
and a half. It moved down from forty six, So
it's a big move. I think partially because he's a Flowers.
I think, yeah, maybe because people think.

Speaker 2 (28:20):
He'll be tight. I would expect that it'll be a
low scoring game.

Speaker 3 (28:25):
You better hope. I just told you. I know his
If his team allows more than thirteen points, he loses
Lamar apparently in the playoffs. But my view of it is,
if we're taking Pittsburgh, we can't have it be a shootout.
I have no confidence in Pittsburgh's offense in a shootout
right now. Like that Russell Wilson we joked about from
week ten and all those you know midweek throwing those

(28:47):
fifty to fifty balls and then working out for him.
That has not been there these last four or five weeks.
And I think even Evans said it right. He hasn't
scored more than seventeen points in these last couple of weeks.
So yeah, it's it's not a game that for we
wanted to be a shot up. But I have no
view on the total. Like I was gonna bet the under,
but I'm show invested in Pittsburgh. That's just my play.

Speaker 1 (29:06):
Well, look if it's the kind of correlation where it's
a very low total with a very high spread. So
in those circumstances, you tend to want to lean into
the underdog because people expect it will be a low
scoring game, and it's just harder to win by ten
points in a low scoring game.

Speaker 2 (29:22):
So I hope it goes out the way. With that,
we wanted to Simon, Yes, sir, we're going.

Speaker 1 (29:27):
To have the winner of the one hundred thousand dollars
Favorites Pick Them Contest come on the show today. Daniel
Winsenberg from North Dakota.

Speaker 2 (29:39):
I'm so excited. How about you?

Speaker 3 (29:41):
I can't wait.

Speaker 2 (29:42):
Let's get to them.

Speaker 1 (29:45):
It is truly one of our greatest thrills that we
get to do the Favorites Contest one hundred thousand dollars
giveaway the grand prize winner forty thousand dollars. And this guy, Folks,
had a miraculous run. He had more five and zero weeks,

(30:08):
more undefeated weeks than he had losing weeks. If he
had not even played the final week, he still would
have won the contest. He beat out fifteen thousand people
to win the forty thousand dollars he's North Dakota's finest gambler.

(30:33):
Daniel Winsenberg. Welcome to the Favorites, brother, congratulations.

Speaker 4 (30:38):
Thank you. It's an honor to be on a show
and it was great and I love doing it and
trying to figure out who's gonna win it or or
who at least.

Speaker 1 (30:45):
Cover You live in bow Bells, bo Bells, bo Bells,
North Dakota. Dude, I looked on the map. Matt Mitchell
sent it around to everybody. This place is tiny, tiny, tiny.

Speaker 4 (30:58):
My hometown as three hundred people in it. I live
ten miles outside of that, and my graduating class had
ten kids in it.

Speaker 3 (31:07):
So yes, I gotta know. How does one have Wi Fi?
Do you have starlink you? How are you putting your
picks in every week?

Speaker 4 (31:14):
We do have Wi Fi and luckily Dad O works
on phone, so it's not too bad.

Speaker 2 (31:21):
What do you do there? Are you a farmer?

Speaker 4 (31:23):
That is exactly what I am. Yes, I lived here
my whole life. My dad and my uncle farmed and
then I just kind of joined in, and now me
and my dad farmed together. My uncle retired, so that's
the story. So we don't need people, We just need
a lot of farmland, and I have cows too. We
do wheat, canola, derm, oats, flax, soybeans, peas, trying to

(31:46):
little corn. We're not really in corn country.

Speaker 1 (31:48):
But oat, flax, and soybeans. You basically described my entire diet.

Speaker 3 (31:54):
IM They're going to ask about daylight savans. What's your
view on that? That's the topic we should be asking
the farmer about. Should we change their foxes? Is that outdated?

Speaker 4 (32:01):
We need to go to the actual daylight savings time
because right now it's getting too dark too early.

Speaker 3 (32:07):
There you go, yeah, all.

Speaker 1 (32:08):
Right, So give me your gambling load on. How did
you get into it? And why are you so good
at it?

Speaker 2 (32:12):
Right now? It's so much better than me and simon.

Speaker 3 (32:17):
Your ways.

Speaker 4 (32:17):
Because I farm, I spend a lot of time by
myself or an a tractor or any equipment. So all day,
every day, I just listen to podcasts. Our way I
found you, guys is I listened to cow Herd all
the time, and years ago when Chad was on with
cow Herd, I just wanted more gambling podcasts. So I
found out you had your own started listening every week,

(32:38):
and I said, I just listened to sports podcasts all day.
So between what my opinions are, see what I agree with,
what I don't agree with, and then I don't know,
kind of go from there, I guess. And then every
Sunday I'm still in the tractor. I don't get to
take off to watch football, so I take an iPad
with and put the red zone on and kind of
just listen. Don't have a lot of time to watch it,

(32:58):
but always paying attention, I guess.

Speaker 1 (33:01):
I mean, that's the hard thing about being a farmer
is the crops don't take a day off. The animals
don't take a day off.

Speaker 4 (33:08):
Just because a Sunday doesn't meanly take the day off. Ever,
not during busy season, which is pretty much from April
to October.

Speaker 1 (33:16):
Alright, Well, since you may be the greatest gambler who's
ever lived, according to your record, I'm looking at it
right now. You had two weeks where you went two
and three. One of them you got to drop. Every
other week was three and two, four and one, or
five and zero. The big story this year in sports
betting is how frequently the favorites were covering. What was

(33:40):
your strategy through the year with regard to favorites and
making your picks every.

Speaker 4 (33:45):
Week, bad against bad quarterbacks. Will Levis against him every week, like,
I mean, it's really proved me wrong, and he didn't.
So I don't think like home field advantage meant this year.
So I mean, even betting favorites, I was doing a
lot of road favorites and it was paying out. I

(34:06):
hated it. Road favorites seemed to be cash in big time.
I found out after week ten that I was in
the running for winning. I think I was in second
place after week ten, and then I hated it. I
don't know how you guys do it. It was so much
stress on it and I had no money into it.

Speaker 3 (34:21):
That's crazy. Every week or chasing a big prize and
you know that you can't. You literally couldn't have a
bad week, even though you didn't know that you could.
I've had a bad week, you were that far ahead.

Speaker 4 (34:30):
Week fourteen, my girlfriend planned a trip for us to
go to Poutakana, which is awesome. Loved it, and I
was more stressed about getting my picks in because I
didn't know if I could get them in when I
was in another country. I was gonna have wi fi
if I was going to miss two weeks. We're on
a beach all inclusive resort and there's this little tiny
sports bar in the corner of the lobby, and I

(34:50):
made her go in there and watch football with me
as I was trying to cover it. Luckily, we just
went for the end of the late games, but we
were still in there for like two hours. Turns out
end up going five and oh that week and picking
the exact number of passing hours on Monday night, so
it ended up working out pretty good. So it was
a pretty good trip.

Speaker 1 (35:07):
Have you put yourself Have you been in that kind
of position before, like as a gambler or any other
scenario where you've had to carry that kind of stress,
Not like this farming doesn't do that to you.

Speaker 4 (35:17):
No, there's a little bit more leeway doing that. I mean,
you got to make great decisions, a lot of money
involved in it, but it's not the stress like this
or one bad week and you're out completely.

Speaker 2 (35:28):
When did you realize that you won it all?

Speaker 4 (35:31):
I knew for sure after the early games on Sunday,
because I think I had a three game lead and
the person a second third. They were tied. They going
to cop me. I mean in gambling, I would not
not saying I win until the clocket zero.

Speaker 2 (35:47):
Have you decided what you're doing with the money?

Speaker 4 (35:49):
Yet kind of end up buying some cows the other
day after I won. Goodness, some of the profits will
go to that. And then my other idea is I
got really a big into the like sports memorabilia. When
I started this, my plan was I wanted to autograph
Jersey of all the Minnesota Twins retired numbers, and I'm

(36:10):
halfway through getting them, so the part of it might
go to buying the other half. I still need a
Kirby Pucket Harmon Killer Brew and uh oh, can't Herbeck by.

Speaker 1 (36:20):
The way, let me see if I can remember ken
Hrbek fourteen? Yes, man, come on, Simon.

Speaker 3 (36:27):
Now I do have one request, Daniel, can you please
name these cows after me and Chad?

Speaker 4 (36:32):
Yes, these are going to be known as the either
the Favorites or the Action Network Group.

Speaker 2 (36:38):
How many cows did you buy?

Speaker 3 (36:40):
Well?

Speaker 4 (36:40):
I bought thirty six of them, so actually you've.

Speaker 3 (36:44):
Got a ton of acres. Guys.

Speaker 4 (36:47):
This forty thousand is not going to quite cover all
of them, but luckily I needed them anyway. This is
just helping out.

Speaker 1 (36:53):
Are they cows that you're gonna, like, do you milk
those cows?

Speaker 5 (36:57):
Like?

Speaker 3 (36:58):
What are beef be farm?

Speaker 4 (37:01):
They'll have cows and then I'll sell the steers, and
then I'll I'll probably keep the heifers and then either
get a ball to breed them and then I'll sell
them as Brett heifers the next year, or I'll just
keep them for myself and just kind of keep having calves.

Speaker 1 (37:15):
Whichever cows you name, Simon and Chad, let's not kill
those cows. Those cows live a happy, long life just
chewing on grass and whatever else cows eat and make
them warm and comfortable out there in North Dakota. Congratulations

(37:37):
and winning the Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro
Football Pick Them Contest. The Cow King of North Dakota.
I wish we had just tailed you the whole season, Daniel,
Congratulations on a heat.

Speaker 4 (37:51):
Thank you.

Speaker 2 (37:52):
You are the hero of the Favorites contest. Congratulations, Thank you.

Speaker 1 (37:59):
Simon. We're gonna have two cows named after us. If
nothing else, it was worth doing the contest just for that.
We basically bought ourselves two cows for forty thousand dollars
and he's not gonna kill him.

Speaker 2 (38:10):
He's gonna let him live forever.

Speaker 1 (38:12):
Denver at Buffalo. Buffalo is now a nine point favorite.
This was a in the totals forty seven. This was
a stubborn, stubborn eight and a half, one of the
lines that barely budged during the week, it moved to nine.
I think this morning.

Speaker 2 (38:30):
At bet three sixty five. So much freaking.

Speaker 1 (38:33):
Love for Bonnicks, so much fear of Sean Payton and
what they can scheme against the Bills defense that.

Speaker 2 (38:41):
Has struggled late in the year.

Speaker 1 (38:44):
Buffalo thirtieth in EPA per pass allowed since week nine,
thirty second in passing success rate.

Speaker 2 (38:52):
I don't know.

Speaker 1 (38:53):
It's not like the Broncos defense is impervious to criticism.
Josh Allen has dominated man coverage, which is what the
Broncos play. Bon Nicks has been much worse against zone
than against man, which is what the Bills predominantly play.
I still like the Bills here, It just feels like

(39:15):
it's primed for a veteran quarterback makes all the right moves.

Speaker 2 (39:19):
Bon Knicks at.

Speaker 1 (39:20):
Some point can't have his handheld by Sean Payton in
the most crucial moment of the game, and like we
saw against the Bengals, will make a bad mistake.

Speaker 3 (39:29):
Yeah, and this will be all your credit if the
Bills do come this number, because you're you're the one
that really believes in it. I am the one that's
like I wanted to be on Denver. I feel like
I'm being bullied because everyone I've talked to you basically
the same as you. They like the Bills here. So
I just put the Bills in a ton of teasers,
like you're giving me Bills at minus two and a half.
That's an amazing number against a rookie quarterback making his

(39:50):
first start on the road in the playoffs. So my
fear is what you just talked about, this Bill's defense.
That's the fear like that it feels like the back
door will be always open. And you know, if we
get Josh Allen that we know and love and he
just goes full kill mode and he puts up forty points, yeah,
they're covering that number. They're gonna abolutely roll this Denver team.

(40:12):
But the fear for me is just if he has
one or two bad drives, right if he just you know,
doesn't doesn't perform well or just lets this team get
back in it. We've kind of seen this, this Bill's team.
They let bad teams backdoor them, and now they're playing
against an offense that is not bad, Like this is
an offense that they know how to scheme up for Bonicks.
They know how to get him out wide or out

(40:34):
in the open to either run the ball or pass
it on kind of simple reads. You know, the biggest
thing for this Broncos team, they very are much so
Champagne's image of the Drew Brees right, the quick read
three yard pass. He really has embraced that. And you
know that's the key with these young quarterbacks. If you
can get them into third and four, third and threes,

(40:55):
it's so important compared to them being thirty eight. Like,
you know, veteran quarterbacks can kind of get away with
that stuff. Bo Knicks cannot, even though you know the
numbers might back up. He's been good pushing the ball
down the field. We've seen when he struggles against these
good defenses because he's in the long positions right, and
he tries to force a ball in terrible turnovers like
he's still a rookie. So yeah, I'm I'm backing you
here because you're my guy, and I do believe in

(41:16):
this Bills team. You know, it feels like you know,
it's just like it feels lined up this year for
that Bills Detroit super Bowl, which you know, everyone if
you're if you're, you gotta be sick in the head
if you you don't want that, right, Like these two
teams that have been through hell with their fan bases,
it's lined up for them to make it. And this
is the start of it. Like Josh, Josh Allen has

(41:37):
struggled win loss record wise in the playoffs, where none
of that, to me, is on him. Like you go
back and you go through all those games. I feel
like Josh Allen always put his team the best position
to win, and it was either the coaching or the defense.
I let him down a lot of those spots. And
the hope, obviously is this year it all comes together
in the perfect year that he's put together and they
figured it out. But there it's the same old Bills thing, right.

(42:00):
They still have the weaknesses on the defenses and I
still have a little bit of questions about their head coach.
So yeah, like I'll back them here, but I'm already
thinking about next week. Like, I can't wait to really
dive into next week Bill's matchup. So come on, Bills,
gotta win this one. I've a lot invested in this one,
and for Chad, we got a lot invested in this spread.

Speaker 1 (42:19):
The total in this game is forty seven. The luck
rankings have this game as an under.

Speaker 2 (42:27):
Yeah, what scares me is Josh Allen just going off,
you know.

Speaker 3 (42:36):
But even if he goes off, I think like even
in pros I've talked to, they've been hammering this under
as well. I have no opinion on this total, but
if you want another professional side, it is the under.
I've seen a lot of books now even before we
hopped on here moving down to forty six and a half.
So smart money is coming in to me when you
mix in what it's going to be in Buffalo, how
cold it will be. This could be the typical game
Chad where the Bills win forty nothing. I know, it

(42:58):
sounds crazy to even think about, but that's what I
would be scared too, about Josh Allen going crazy. But
I could see them rolling and then just the Broncos
never getting off the bus. They're just totally outmatched playing
against it. Probably one of the better teams they've played
all season and they just kind of fall apart. So
I get where you're coming from. But professionals love the under.

(43:19):
Luck under is something that always jumps out to us.
We always talk totals with the luck rankings. So if
you're looking for what smart money is doing right now,
the smart money from people respect right now is on
the under.

Speaker 1 (43:30):
Green Bay at Philly. Philly is a four and a
half point favorite right now. Totals forty five and a half.
Jalen Hurts practiced on Wednesday. He is expected to play
on Sunday. No surprise. You mentioned that you've watched the
tape from practice. You thought he looked really good. The

(43:51):
line has not moved since he practiced because it was
already priced in telling you right now, based on what
you said and the fact that we love the Eagles here,
it feels like we're in the foxhole on this one.

Speaker 3 (44:05):
You know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a
foxhole guy. I commit to a team, I commit to
a city. I'm a foxhole guy. All right. I love it.
Let's go.

Speaker 1 (44:14):
We are, you know, But like it's just sort of
been hanging at four and a half since we spoke
on Tuesday, the total has moved down for forty seven.
I would expect it to be very slow start by
both teams, but I just think the Eagles are so
much better than people are even recognizing because this defense
is dominant.

Speaker 3 (44:33):
Yeah, and I'm definitely trying to thread the needle here
to take in green Bay first quarter, first half. But
to me, that to me feels like the smart play
because of what we talk about, Like these teams kind
of are what they are, right. Green Bay performers well
in the first half, They're great on script. The Eagles,
whatever may be the reason, even before is injured, Jalen

(44:53):
Hurst just comes out slow. And we've seen that time
and time again this season that they just do not
perform well. And a lot of three and outs early
on right until he gets into a rhythm, this offense
doesn't really move the ball well. But Yeah, for my
biggest bets of this game, it's not even close. Like
I'm heavily investing this Egos team at three and a half,
at four, at four and a half, still been betting

(45:15):
it even today. I bet it again when I got
up this morning, and you know, I'm just like you
I'm shocked this numbers on moves off Jalen Hurts practicing,
which either shows that some really smart money's on the
other side on Green Bay or the books are waiting
to get the clearance that he is at a concussion protocol.
That's what we're all waiting for because we basically have
to do with that practice like he did yesterday and

(45:35):
wake up symptom free today, right, no headaches, no, you know,
not feeling right, no headaches, any of that stuff. So
you know, as we are on the air right now,
I'm me and Chad, I have not seen a single
thing online, no text, nothing that says otherwise. So we're
gonna keep going forward. Like jale Hurts is playing this
game and he is all good, So yeah for me

(45:57):
matchup wise, I mean, I don't know if you saw
that base They put out the players all Pro votes
for the NFL season this season, and basically the way
it works is players can vote for anybody but themselves
and anyone on their team, so you know, you can
vote everyone obviously in the league. And it jumped out
to me that you know, the number one or I

(46:18):
guess number two, but he's still All Pro in their mind,
is Jalen Carter at the D line position and the
fact that you know, Zach bron Our linebackers got so
much respect as well, It's like the Eagles have the defense.
I think me and Chad and like everyone else are
our biggest question mark right now is is Jalen Hurt's
going to show up in this game? Because I remember
I gave you that stupid stat about Lamar's nember won

(46:40):
a game when his team is up more than thirteen points.
Jalen Hurts has never won a playoff game where his
defense is going up more than seven points, which sounds
insane because he made it to the Super Bowl. But
that's how that season kind of broke for them, where
they they played against teams that you know, the Giants
weren't really that good that year, and then they got
to play a rock party who they hurt in the
first quarter, and then you know, the rest is history. Obviously,

(47:02):
I talked about the time he had the best game
of his career in that Super Bowl. He was incredible.
He just ran into my home. So this team feels
like they're still being a little underrated here, and that
if he was fully healthy coming to this game, this
would be six, because how can we not talk about
how serious of those injuries were to the Screen Bay team,

(47:23):
Like they lost their number one deep threat receiver and
their number one cornerback, and now they're playing against one
of the best offensive football and one of the best
defense in the football. Like, to me, it's it's it's
maybe I'm not giving up respect to the floor. And
that's what the pro other pros I've talked to, who
are giving tons of respect him and just trusting him
with this number. It's like you get Lafleur as a
big dog like this, a four and a half dog

(47:46):
against an Eagles team that might be a little overrated
in the public eye because of all the numbers. We
just talked about the fact that they were such a
dominant defense and everything like that this regular season. But yeah,
I feel pretty good about this Eagles team. And I
look at this as a rare opportunity that if this
Eagles team, you can still get them a plus seven

(48:06):
hundred for Super Bowl. And I think right now the
lines might be the odds on favorite at plus two
eighty or plus two ninety. Do we really think there's
that big of a difference between the Egles and the Lions.
I don't. I do think this Eagles team matchup really
well for them. So it is interesting. The books are
kind of not showing their hand, but they are a
little bit they don't. They believe in this Eagles team,

(48:27):
but not as much as I clearly do. And they're
they're kind of hedging their bets here thinking they're not
gonna be a tea coming out of the East here,
so or the NFC, I should say, so, yeah, I'm
I'm interested in this game for that just the biggest
standpoint of how Hurts looks. But it's also a true
test for this defense against the little floor offensive. Mine, like,
this is the ultimate test for them against the guy
who you know you're giving him a lot of time

(48:49):
to face the defense for the second time around. You
expect them that have just kind of figure it out.
But you know, to me, this great eight team is
underachieved all season. I made that jerk with you, Chad.
They won the same amount of divisional games as the
Chicago Bears did this season. They went one and five.
So this was a team that we joked about being
to the all hype team. They lived up to it
even through the Jordan Love injuries and Milik Willis coming

(49:09):
in like they somehow found a way and they got
the raw deal of being, you know, eleven win team
now being the seventh seeds. So it wouldn't be wouldn't
be shocked if Green Bay pulls off the upset, but
I would be shocked in the sense of this is
probably the best Eagles team I've seen in my lifetime,
and this would be a huge disappointment getting knocked out
at home in Round one.

Speaker 1 (49:28):
Well, look, I do think that the Eagles are being
a bit undervalued defensively. So much is made of Jalen Hurts,
and I think from a public perspective, too much is
made of him having been in the concussion protocol and
being out, and not enough is made of just how

(49:48):
dominant this defense is. I watched a lot of freaking
Eagles games this year. I know you did too. You
just wouldn't want to be playing this team. I agree
with you about the Lions, like I would not want
to have to face the Eagles, who are so good
against the run, which is what the Lions need to
be great at to get their offense going. Just looking ahead,

(50:09):
handicapping of potential NFC title game. Lafleur is the X
factor here, you know, like we've talked about it. We
don't like to bet against Lafleoor. So I understand the
four and a half. The betting on the Packers at
plus three in the first half is another bet that

(50:29):
a lot of people have been talking about, also taking
the under in the first half. The Eagles have generally
been a bad team in the first half, especially bad
in the first quarter. The opportunity for the Packers, because
they will have been game planning those first fifteen in scripting,
is better for them first quarter, first half than it
is over the extended game. So that's getting a lot

(50:50):
of attention right now. Betting the Packers at plus three,
So I understand that one in entirely. That is our
fox hole, which brings us to Simon our Big Balls bet.

Speaker 2 (51:05):
Of the Week.

Speaker 1 (51:08):
Presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy
John has the support. Great games start with great underwear,
and Tommy John makes the greatest the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
three point favorites over the Washington Commanders. The total is
fifty to fifty and a half, highest total of the weekend.

(51:29):
You know, it's a game featuring two average to downright
bad defenses with two explosive quarterbacks who are not immune
to turnovers. Yet we're going with the veteran game playing quarterback,
playmaking quarterback over the rookie playmaking quarterback. I think because
we think the Bucks are undervalued in this spot versus

(51:51):
an overhype team with a dynamic, dynamic playmaker and Jayden Daniels.

Speaker 3 (51:56):
Yeah, and I get why the early money and some
professional on the over ide do personally like Dender, but
it's simply because it is over fifty. It feels way too,
way too high for a playoff game. I know the
first time they played it was what thirty seven to
twenty uh Tampa. So I get the perspective of you
know this, I feel like people think it's gonna be
a shootout, But from my mindset, it's like the Bucks

(52:18):
can't have this be a shootout. They need to have
a big, Bucky Irving game. They need to lean on
their run, keep keep the limited snaps out of Jane
Daniel's hands, because that's how he gets you like. He
is the kind of guy that he is, you know,
one of the more dangerous guys of the balls in
his hand, and the more opportunities you give him to
be on the field, he's gonna get you, especially this,
like you just said, this Bucks defense. You know, top
bulls can do a lot of scheme and kind of

(52:39):
give him unique looks that he might not be ready for.
But eventually he'll get you, especially if he can wear
your defense out, not only with his legs but using
his offensive weapons. So interesting that this is so high.
You know, it's rare you see a fifty, especially when
it's not you know, a little more of us Josh
Allen game, Like that makes more sense, not a Danel

(53:00):
Jenden Daniels versus Baker game. But that's how great these
two offense have been this season, and what you just said,
how average both these defenses have been. But you know,
I look at this Bucks team, and as the weeks
went along, I just love it more and more, just
because I am in the sports books. I am talking
to Joe Public in the line, we're will waiting to
cash our tickets for make bets, And it is insane

(53:22):
how much love and respect guys have for Jane Daniels
and this commander's team, and they just want to bet them, right,
that's the fun, sexy side it feels like, and this
Baker's side feels like, you know, this ugly, you know,
no one wants to better type of team that just
linked into the playoffs. And you know, just like Chad,
a lot of people don't respect the NFC South. I
think that's a division that not I.

Speaker 1 (53:42):
Don't know why you would say that. I've never done
anything but love and support the NFC South. Great franchises,
a lot of memories, great moments in NFL history. People
really rally around those brands.

Speaker 3 (53:56):
But it makes even more sick when you think about,
you know, poor Matt and Mitchell and these Lions fans.
They've been around forever, and Tampa's here, you know what,
a couple of weeks and they already got two super Bowls.
That's the way it goes. Uh yeah, it's I'm looking
at it right now and I just can't get over
the fact that we're getting Baker and this veteran team.

(54:17):
It's still at minus three against this Commanders. It does
feel like, I know, we love this Chargers number, and
I do love it, especially at two and a half,
but I really really love this this Bucks team, like
this right now, Ore, then this Pittsburgh line are probably
is probably gonna be my biggest bet this week. Like
I've pretty much all day every day, I've been finding
different books to get some money down on this on

(54:37):
this Bucks line, and for the most part, I haven't
been turned away too much from bookmakers because it's been
pretty heavy Commanders money. Like this is basically the public's
favorite dog this week, which you know isn't shocking, right.
They're a fun, exciting team. Geno Dan's is really fun.
So I get where they're coming from. And the fact
that you know this this could be a coin flip game, right,

(54:58):
We'll know once it starts. But my view of it
is just a rare opportunity to take on a veteran
coach with a veteran quarterback who have had playoff success together.
You know, just last year they rolled that Eagles team
like they know how to play in these exact situations,
Zack Scenaios. So yeah, let me fade this over hyped
Commanders team and take this Bucks team at minus three.

Speaker 1 (55:19):
You know, I reviewed the show from Tuesday a little bit,
and I think it sort of went over my head
in the moment. How much you loved the Bucks and
now you're being so clear about it, like it is

(55:39):
a very good matchup, and the Bucks loved to blitz.
Jaden Daniels not nearly as effective against the blitz. The
total at fifty and a half, I like the under two.

Speaker 2 (55:51):
One of the main.

Speaker 1 (55:52):
Reasons I like it is because Baker, obviously we know,
is a turnover machine. He's you know, he's going to
throw an interception at some point. But Jaydon also like
a few more fumbles than you'd like, only through nine picks,
seven picks in the last seven weeks of the season,
so like he was so accurate and picked free in
the first half of the year, but started to show

(56:13):
a little bit at the end of the year. And
those turnovers are just drive killers, right, and like a
lot of times they are happening in the opponent's half
of the field, So then all of a sudden, instead
of getting that touchdown or field goal, the other team
is getting the ball and they're going on a long
drive eat something more clock no points out of the

(56:34):
drive that was headed into good direction. So I don't
mind the under here at all either. At fifty and
a half especially feels extraordinarily high.

Speaker 3 (56:42):
And we've seen it though that like even the Cowboys
you can say is not that good of a run team.
They were pretty much running it down this Commander's team
throw and you know b Jon Robinson just a week
before that having his way, Saquon having his way. So
you know, I know Bucky Irving is not putting the
same sentence as those other guys, for I get it.
You know, he's the kind of new to the league

(57:03):
and he's not that type of talent. But if you
really break down the numbers and look at what Bucky's
done this season, he is a top ten running back
in my opinion. Like, this guy is a workhorse, and
that to me is going to be the game plan
for the Bucks. Like for everything I read from their
beat writers, and you know, I wish I had sourced
the inside I unfortunately don't. I don't really have any
connections down there in Tampa. But it feels like the

(57:24):
way guys are talking about it's going into it be
a heavy Bucky Irving game and they're gonna lean on
that run, just keeping the ball out Jane Daniel's hands.
So and what you just talked about, they need to
protect Baker from himself sometimes right, Like Baker can't help
himself with turnover. You just can't have those stupid turnovers
in the playoffs, like that's going to cost you. So
that's another reason why I like this under so much
is it just feels like it's going to be a

(57:44):
run heavy game from this Bucks team.

Speaker 2 (57:46):
Simon.

Speaker 1 (57:47):
Here at the Favorites, we know that feedback is a gift,
and we're getting loads of feedback about my Tommy John reads.
Our listeners keep hearing me talk about my downstairs, talking
about my lowers. The reactions are mixed, that is the
one thing about feedback, but one thing they all agree on.
I'm very comfortable. Some might agree too comfortable, But that's

(58:12):
what happens when you're decked out in Tommy John.

Speaker 2 (58:16):
You unlock a.

Speaker 1 (58:17):
Level of comfort so overpowering you can barely control what
you say into a microphone. And with a special sale
for our listeners, you too can achieve this level of comfort.
And with thousands of five star reviews, you don't need
to take my word for it, Simon, why will you

(58:37):
be wearing more Tommy John in twenty twenty five?

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Because comfort is king, that's.

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Right, and right now you can shop Tommy john dot
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com slash Favorites. That's Tommy john dot com slash Favorites.
Last game on the board Minnesota visiting the La Rams.

Speaker 2 (59:03):
The line has moved from two and a half to
one and a half.

Speaker 1 (59:05):
It finally buzzed a little bit last night early this morning.
Wise Guy's definitely coming in on the Rams. The number
is down to one, it's down to half in some places.
Total is forty eight. I think at the end of
the day, we don't like to bet against Matthew Stafford.
We're getting him at a dog at Home as a
dog at home.

Speaker 3 (59:26):
Yeah, and it's another game that I've I've taken the
under on. It's it's all about what my mindset is,
my gamescript mine of this fills that type of game
that is going to be run heavy for this Rams team,
and we've kind of seen it now with this blind
Foy's defense. That's how you can attack them, like you
really can attack them through the run because the way
he kind of plays their style of defense. And you know,

(59:48):
we joked about it like Williams is one of the
best running backs in football, especially when you get down
in the red zone. The guys are scoring machine. And
Stafford to me, since that, you know, Lions game or
was it Bills, I always keep next it up. I
believe it was the Bills that they beat. He put
up whatever it was, forty four or forty two points
against that team. Since then, the offense has not been
the same, right, They've been struggling. They've just kind of

(01:00:10):
been a different team. I can't lie to you, Chad.
I don't know what I'm gonna get here from Stafford,
Like it's it's been different. Maybe he is. He's got
a major injury I don't know about, and maybe that
week off really helped that injury, and he'll bounce back
and this is the perfect situation for him. Pooka and
Cooper cup like, this is a great matchup for them
against the secondary of the Minnesota Vikings. But I think

(01:00:34):
it comes back to that evanstat right about quarterbacks making
their first start, Like this is Sam Darnold's first start,
and we saw last week in a game where he
had the weight of the world, the future of his
career on him. He crumbled. He did. He melted in
that game. Even when I went back and watched it.
He missed so many opportunities and so many throws that

(01:00:55):
he's just been nailing all season. Like we talked about it,
he's had one of the best seasons you know, ever
put together by a Vikings quarterback. Like he really was
the perfect general for that offense. And you know, Koc
had ultimate confidence in him. Like the place you draw up,
it was like, Okay, you got to take this hit here,
but you're going to get a touchdown or free release

(01:01:15):
all one of your receivers here. Like if you can
just hang in the pocket, let the route develop, it's
going to be there. He just was not hitting that
last week, and you saw that he got flustered right
after you got a couple of hits to the mouth.
Isn't that what the Rams are going to do here?
Aren't they just going to bring a ton of pressure
and be like, Okay, it worked last week. Let's see
if he figured it out in a week or if
this is what he is, if he is going to
struggle against it. Because early in the year he was

(01:01:37):
great against the Blitz and it was alarm and see
how bad he was last week. So yeah, this is
a game where it me and you could get burned. Chad.
We could be overreacting to last week and saym Darnold
a struggles and underreacting to Matthew Stafford in this Rams
team down the stretcher that they have not been the
same offense. But to me, this is really about trusting
the numbers and the trends that everything points to this

(01:01:59):
Rams team and you're still getting great value as them
as a dog, like I have him as over a
one point favorite. We're still getting plus one and a
half at a couple of books out there, and I knows
it sounds like a big deal, but every point matters
in the playoffs. It is a big deal. So yeah,
to me at plus one and a half, I still
love the value on this Rams team, and yeah, I'm
gonna be betting them in the under here.

Speaker 1 (01:02:18):
So this is a luck over a lot of expected regression.
Two more scoring for total teams. Who obviously we saw
the Vikings not score very much in Week eighteen against
the Lions, and the Rams have been scoring less and
less since that game against the Bills. So Doctor Nick

(01:02:41):
and crew like this as a luck over Simon. You're fading,
Doctor Nick. How does that make you feel?

Speaker 3 (01:02:48):
It's not good? Maybe I'll do the cheat that doctor
Nick does. I'll just do the first half. I'll go
first half over.

Speaker 2 (01:02:55):
Coward.

Speaker 3 (01:02:56):
Yeah right, all right.

Speaker 1 (01:02:59):
So the Rams, for some reason, are the game that
I feel the least confident about, as I like the number,
I like them much more as a dog than a favorite.
But essentially, if you're betting them at one and a half,
you're you're saying you expect them to win the game.

Speaker 2 (01:03:16):
And I do.

Speaker 1 (01:03:17):
But I still look at this and like, of all these,
I feel best about I think the Bucks and the Chargers,
and worst about.

Speaker 2 (01:03:29):
The Rams and the Bills.

Speaker 3 (01:03:31):
It's fair And I told you though, if you're feeling
a little cowardly, throw them a teaser. Brother, getting the
Rams with.

Speaker 1 (01:03:36):
The way Rams and Bills are a perfect teaser. So
if that's what I'm feeling, that, that's what I'm gonna do.
That's what I That's what I'm gonna do.

Speaker 3 (01:03:43):
All right.

Speaker 1 (01:03:44):
Each week we give out a two team money line
dog parlay. This week it's a little bit different just
because there's fewer dog options to really consider that three
six five is going to boost the odds and highlight
this money line parlay to their site all week and
under both promo pages. Remember, both games are eligible for
bet three six fives early pay out promo, where your

(01:04:06):
money line pick gets marked as a win if either
team takes a seventeen point lead, even if they are
loose and they up losing.

Speaker 2 (01:04:13):
If you want to.

Speaker 1 (01:04:13):
Bet this better at bet three six five, this week's
boosted probabay is going to be the Rams and the Bucks.
Find the boost under either the Rams or Bucks game
pages on bet three six five. I don't know if
we can do a money line underdog round robin, Like,
what are you gonna do? Seilers, Rams, Commanders, Texans, Broncos,

(01:04:38):
Like No, it's definitely definitely the week you do the favorites.

Speaker 3 (01:04:41):
I've had a couple of fans reach out that thing
that they've been saying, like, you know, since week ten
and eleven, they've just been going the other way because
our money a line on the Robins obviously have been
dead on arrival. Dogs have just not been winning out right,
So I mean, if you want to go the other way, chat,
it's a fun week to do the favorite It's like
you take the Eagles money line, take the Bucks money line,
take the Rams in there, charge Like, if you want
to stay away from the high ones like the Ravens

(01:05:03):
and the Bills, I still feel pretty good about those
ones who just gave out. Obviously. You know, we only
love one road team early this week, and that's the Chargers.
But this week actually tends to be pretty good for
the Dogs, right historically. I don't know if Evan has
the numbers on it, but it feels like normally dogs
do cover on Wildcard weekend, like this is usually a
good weekend for them, so money line is not so much.

(01:05:26):
But if you are just throwing them into a round
robin and taking the number, that's fine too.

Speaker 1 (01:05:31):
Well, then I'm really thrilled that I'm going all in
on the Chargers and the Bucks and the Bills.

Speaker 2 (01:05:37):
Super excited about that.

Speaker 1 (01:05:39):
And when we bring Evan on, he's going to make
me feel even worse. What are your biggest bets right now?
Bucks and Steelers?

Speaker 3 (01:05:46):
Bucks and Steelers, definitely, and then obviously teasers. I just
been doing a ton of teasers. Rams. I told you
when the Chargers got down to two and a half,
I fucked the loong. I went through the zero, took
the charge off the plus three and a half, and
uh yeah, Bills down at two and a half. It
just feels like that's a gift. So yeah, those those

(01:06:07):
are definitely my biggest bets right now, just straight bets
Tampa and Pittsburgh on their numbers.

Speaker 2 (01:06:13):
When all hope is lost, all that's left is relief.

Speaker 4 (01:06:18):
Let's play scooch Roulette.

Speaker 1 (01:06:23):
Who should we go with? For scooch Roulette into the playoffs?
You get the first choice since you were the season
long winner.

Speaker 3 (01:06:31):
Thanks, got it. I love I love them all. I
guess I will go with I gotta do it. I
gotta go with my boy Baker. I'll take Baker, myse
I kind.

Speaker 2 (01:06:44):
Of wanted to take Tampa.

Speaker 1 (01:06:46):
Darn you, all right, you're taking Tampa, then, I guess
I'm gonna.

Speaker 2 (01:06:52):
Go with the Chargers.

Speaker 3 (01:06:54):
There you go.

Speaker 1 (01:06:55):
I have to all right, before we get out of here,
let's bring in Director of Research, Evan Abrams for the
final word.

Speaker 2 (01:07:02):
Evan the last word With Evan Abrams.

Speaker 4 (01:07:07):
We're finished talking.

Speaker 5 (01:07:08):
Honestly, I have so much to kind of catch up
here on because you've asked me a bunch of questions.
So I'm going to attempt to go through a bunch
of different things here, and you guys can stop me
down whenever you want. So you were talking about like Josh,
Lamar and Hurts, obviously all three at home this weekend.
Interesting enough, I kind of grouped them together because they
all are kind of looking for still that super Bowl win,

(01:07:30):
all trying to get there. Obviously, Hurts has been there
there as a group eight and five straight up at
home in the playoffs, but one in seven away from home,
which means nothing for this weekend, but also says that
they just can't get that big one to get there.
I found that kind of interesting. The second one I
wanted to bring to you, as Simon just alluded to,
since twenty seventeen, underdogs fifty two and thirty four in

(01:07:52):
the playoffs against the spread sixty one percent seventeen percent ROI.
But wildcard round they're actually twenty four and twelve sixty
seven percent even BETTEROW thirty. So yeah, underdogs have had
an advantage in this round. Let's keep going with another
one Simon mentioned here, So we talked about the first
playoff starts, teams making quarterbacks making a first playoff start

(01:08:14):
against a quarterback with experience nineteen and thirty seven against
the spread, nineteen and thirty eight straight up since two
thousand and two, and basically the same numbers on the
road eleven and twenty one straight up. So that's Bonnicks,
jayde Daniels, and Sam Darnold this weekend. Let me go
to what Chad mentioned, so Chargers with this third straight
road game. So yes, teams having their third consecutive road

(01:08:38):
game are thirty nine percent straight up since two thousand
and three. But it is important to note favorites are
twenty four and eleven in that spot, including three and
one in the playoffs. Now, Chad, I took you right.

Speaker 2 (01:08:53):
That is right. We're good. We're gonna leave it there.

Speaker 3 (01:08:56):
We're gonna leave there.

Speaker 2 (01:08:58):
I feel like we're good to say what you want
to say. I will say, this is what you want
to say.

Speaker 5 (01:09:04):
You were talking about good coaches. So I look at
it from like probably two points of view. I just
took every coach who's won a Super Bowl of the list.
They're twenty one and eighteen straight up in the spot
as a road favorite. Third gamer later, so above five hundred.
I think it proves your point. We can move on
from there. I think an interesting aspect that you guys mentioned.

Speaker 1 (01:09:23):
His great confirmation bias fucking best.

Speaker 5 (01:09:27):
I really spend the entire show trying to make sure
you guys look smarter at the end. So let's just
keep going with that. So hew say Flowers, I think
his impact on the field is worth discussing here. So
twenty four point one percent of the Ravens target target
share this year, which is almost ten percent higher than
the second player on the team, which would be Mark Andrews.

(01:09:47):
And I think the biggest adjustment Lamar might have to
go through if Flowers isn't on the field. He has
eighty nine first read or designed targets just for Flowers
this year. That's forty more than the other guy, Mark
Andrews on the team. So without Flowers, I just think
he's going to have to adjust his first and second
reads a little bit, so that could be interesting.

Speaker 3 (01:10:09):
I did look this up. So Tomlin zero to.

Speaker 5 (01:10:12):
Five straight up in the playoffs as a dog of
three or more, he is the only coach with five
losses and no wins since two thousand in that spot.

Speaker 2 (01:10:20):
So what about against the spread in that spot?

Speaker 5 (01:10:22):
I can look in a second, but the nine and
a half is huge for him. But I have that
in my article so I can follow up. Let's keep
going here for a second. You guys mentioned Pittsburgh and
Baltimore and Baltimore having a lead. This one absolutely blew
me away. So historically it's been difficult for Baltimore to
hold the lead against Pittsburgh. Since twenty twenty, the Ravens

(01:10:43):
are two and seven straight up against the Steelers when
leading at any point in the game. They are two
and five straight up when leading by seven plus points,
which is just.

Speaker 3 (01:10:52):
Unbelievable to me.

Speaker 5 (01:10:54):
So the narrative of them getting ahead and holding it
hasn't been great before. But obviously, different quarterbacks, different situations.
I will give you two more here. So you guys
like the Eagles and something that I was kind of
surprised by. So under Nick Siriani, Philly is twenty four
and two straight up, seventeen seven and two against the spread,
is a home favorite when leading by seven plus points

(01:11:15):
at any point in the game, so really not giving
away the lead at all, and when that opponent is
above five hundred in that spot. Sirianni is fourteen and
oh straight up and twelve and two against the spread,
so getting a lead shouldn't be an issue in this one,
at least not historically. And then I know you guys
like the Rams, so this is just one spot and
the Rams are the only team in this.

Speaker 3 (01:11:36):
Spot this week.

Speaker 5 (01:11:37):
So teams that become smaller underdogs, so basically open plus four,
close plus three are actually forty five and twenty sixty
nine percent against the spread over the last twenty years
in the playoffs, including fifty five and twelve and a
six point teaser. That is just the Rams right now,
as every other line has held steady or gotten higher.

Speaker 2 (01:11:58):
I gotta say that's some of your best stuff the season.

Speaker 3 (01:12:01):
Wow, I'm peaking loved it right right time here.

Speaker 2 (01:12:03):
This is PERP loved it.

Speaker 1 (01:12:05):
While I'm reading the ad read for bet three sixty five.
See if you can find out how Tomlin is against
the spread in those five games that we just discussed.
As a reminder, the Favorites Podcast is presented by bet
three sixty five and now new Bet three sixty five
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(01:12:50):
or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
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Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. Say I'm waiting to see
in the chat if evan.

Speaker 5 (01:13:04):
Four and one against the spread, I have, oh my God,
Lou failing to cover the spread by six points per game.

Speaker 1 (01:13:11):
Simon and I will return with our next episode of
the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page Sunday night
after the Packers Eagles game.

Speaker 2 (01:13:19):
To recap the first four wild Card.

Speaker 1 (01:13:22):
Games, download us some Spotify Apple Pods wherever you get
your pods, rate review, subscribe, use five stars, say whatever
you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time, Love you.

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The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Wild Card Weekend

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Wild Card Weekend