February 6, 2025 • 28 mins
The UK government has pledged to achieve 95% clean power by 2030. It's an ambitious, tough goal – and even tougher to accomplish while reducing energy prices. Chris Stark, head of the nation’s Mission Control for Clean Power, says he’s “confident” the UK can deliver. But at the same time, the Labour government’s leaders are sending mixed signals on climate: They want to expand airports and may sign off on new oil fields in the North Sea. Stark tells Akshat Rathi why he’s still certain the country can balance its carbon budget, and why it’s important for politicians to show that green investments have economic benefits too. This episode was recorded at the Energy Transition Acceleration Forum curated by The Carbon Trust.
Explore further:
- Past episode with Chris Stark on his role at the Climate Change Committee
- Past episode about what happens to the energy transition as the US leaves the Paris Agreement
- Past episode with Scottish Power CEO Keith Anderson about grid readiness
Zero is a production of Bloomberg Green. Our producer is Mythili Rao. Special thanks this week to Will Mathis, Sharon Chen, Eamon Farhat, and Jessica Beck. Thoughts or suggestions? Email us at zeropod@bloomberg.net. For more coverage of climate change and solutions, visit https://www.bloomberg.com/green.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to zero. I am UKTUA thrated this week the
UK's big bet. I read a lot of headlines about
(00:21):
climate change and I know you do too. Together they
paint a dire picture because climate impacts are growing and
wore leaders are stepping back from bold action needed to
tackle climate change. It's something that we talk about on
this show with some frequency. But last week I saw
something that bucked the trend. The UK submitted new climate
(00:43):
goals for twenty thirty five to the United Nations, and
they are among the boldest and most ambitious in the world.
The UK has long been a climate leader. It created
the first climate change law for a large economy all
the way back in two thousand and eight. It built
an independent watchdog in the Climate Change Committee. It's twenty
thirty five goal, we'll see an eighty one percent reduction
(01:06):
in greenhouse gas emissions relative to nineteen ninety levels, and
now it has a plan to reach clean power by
twenty thirty So how is it that the UK is
making big bets when everybody else is stepping back. The
best person to help us understand that is Chris Stark.
He used to run the Climate Change Committee and now
(01:27):
runs the newly created mission controlled Task Force for Clean Power.
He is the Labor government's man to make sure that
the UK reaches ninety five percent clean power by twenty thirty.
It's a tough goal, and even tougher when you're trying
to do it while reducing energy prices. But even as
(01:48):
Chris focuses on this ambitious goal, Labor's leaders are sending
mixed signals. They want to open new runways and expand
airports across the UK, including at Heathrow. They might even
sign off on new oil fields in the Nazia. All
of that is going to add complication to Chris's job,
so we had a lot to talk about. I spoke
(02:09):
with Chris at the British Library in London at the
Energy Transition Acceleration Forum curated by the Carbon Trust. Welcome
(02:39):
to the forum and welcome to the Zero Podcast again.
Speaker 2 (02:42):
Chris.
Speaker 3 (02:42):
It's nice to be back with you again. Asha.
Speaker 1 (02:45):
Now let's start with the big picture before we get
to the goals that you are going to have to
achieve while you're working for the government. We spoke about
a year ago and you at that time told me
that the climate census in the UK cannot be taken
for granted.
Speaker 2 (03:03):
Since then, Donald Trump is back in the White House.
Speaker 1 (03:06):
The typically climate forward labor government has been at times
deprioritizing decarbonization.
Speaker 2 (03:14):
So would it be fair.
Speaker 1 (03:16):
To say that now the climate consensus globally cannot be
taken for granted? And what should climate forward leaders like
you and many of those in the audience be doing
at this time.
Speaker 4 (03:27):
So I stand by my comments to you a year ago.
It's amazing, that's only a year. Actually, that's incredible. It's
been quite a year. The climate consensus is not something
you should ever take for granted. And the best example
of that is that in the last year we've seen
some of the most extreme weather events that we've ever seen,
probably the most extreme year ever in terms.
Speaker 3 (03:49):
Of recorded history.
Speaker 4 (03:51):
But it doesn't connect automatically to desire globally, from at
least from our politicians globally, to do more on climate mitigation.
Interesting question whether it might lead to more of a
focus on client adaptation and resilience, I said, Rale. I
suspect it will, although I suspect we'll probably end up
calling it something else. But I sort of feel I
want to challenge some things that you said. I mean
(04:12):
I do think we are a climate forward government here
in the UK. And the difference I suppose is that
we are not in the world of setting you know,
new targets, only that we actually want to demonstrate that
you can deliver against those targets. So the reason I
do this job is because fundamentally, having been the person
that advised on the targets for the country for the
(04:32):
last well I've been at this there for more than
ten years. If someone offers you the chance to come
in and help deliver them, I feel you've got to
sort of take that up. So the Clean Power a
bit of this is just stage one, right, it's sort
of base camp. And once we're at base camp, we
can start sending the mountain. But that mountain is going
to be largely driven by electrifying our economy, as I'm sure.
Speaker 3 (04:55):
We'll discuss this in this discussion, but cleaning up.
Speaker 4 (04:59):
The power system is I think the very best way
for us to demonstrate that as a government we are
even more committed to our climate objectives because we're focused
now on delivering them.
Speaker 1 (05:10):
So the Clean Power Mission, and let's define it, because
it's ninety five percent clean power and five percent on
abated gas.
Speaker 2 (05:17):
It's been more than six months since you started.
Speaker 1 (05:21):
One of the important pieces of advice I ever got
at the start of my career from my Linel manager
was that you know, take six months to understand the job,
but by the end of it, you should know what
you're doing.
Speaker 2 (05:34):
So how confident are you? That's how you confident?
Speaker 1 (05:40):
Are you that the UK can reach the clean power
goal by twenty thirty and what have you done so
far to reach that conclusion?
Speaker 3 (05:51):
So I am confident.
Speaker 4 (05:52):
I mean I'm not recklessly confident, but I am confident
because I think I want to just make this point
that what we've committed to do is really right on
the edge of what we think is possible. So I
acknowledge that we call it a mission for a reason.
It is an actual mission, and just to make the
point that you know, governments can have a few missions,
(06:12):
they can't have hundreds. And I think it is really
important that we selected this one as as something that
has the support of the whole government right up to
the Prime Minister'd say it also has the support of
other parts of government in the UK as well, including
notably our devolved governments. You're right to define it so
(06:34):
what we've done in the first six months, we have
not wasted. I feel I'm coming up for seven months now.
I don't feel I've wasted a single day in that time.
Even over Christmas. We have moved lightning fast to try
and define what we mean quickly and then move into
quite an exciting period where we also define the policies
(06:55):
that we think will be needed to deliver it, to
allow me to start this year moving into genuine delivery mode.
Speaker 3 (07:02):
Now, let me just.
Speaker 4 (07:03):
Briefly cover those things. So the challenge of clean power.
The reason I do this job is because when I
was at the Climate Change Committee, I spent a very
happy period of my life working with some of the
world's best analysts looking at how you could decarbonize a
whole economy by twenty fifty. The last time we did
this was for the sixth Carbon Budget Assessment. We're about
(07:24):
to see the CCC's seventh Carbon Budget Assessment.
Speaker 3 (07:27):
I'll be a keen reader of that when it comes.
Speaker 4 (07:28):
But last time round we did something that I don't
expect the SECC to do this time, which we had
five different scenarios, all of them complete scenarios with integrity
within them, and they're all very different by design because
we wanted to it was the first time the country
had a net zero target. We wanted to demonstrate there
was more than one way to skin a cat, so
we looked at five different ways to hit that goal.
One thing you can do when you've done something like
(07:50):
that is look across the five and you can see
there's some common factors to those scenarios, quite a few
actually common facts is one of them is that there
is a point when you can see you've got a
clean power system. But the second points that is that
you shouldn't be overly purist about what that means. So
the kind of fundamental of what we're trying to do
in the UK is based on that analysis, and we've
basically asked our Energy system operator it's called NISO in
(08:12):
the UK, to give us their view of how you
fulfill a target like that. Basically in a world where
we expect to have gas in the power system, right,
so we are in a very unique moment where we
can use gas as a backup, flexible backup and progressively
reduce the amount of gas that we're burning each year
in the power system to the point where by twenty thirty.
(08:33):
End of twenty thirty, we're going to take the whole year,
but by the end of twenty thirty we might need it.
We can get that belief five percent in that year,
and I've called that herculean.
Speaker 3 (08:44):
I stand by that.
Speaker 4 (08:45):
That was what I said before I come into this job,
and it's that sort of effort that you need to
make it happen. Now we should talk about all the
things that need to be on to do that, but
we define that quickly and then produce an action plan
around that, and here we are at the start of
the year now implementing it.
Speaker 1 (08:59):
So the accent action plan is detailed, that's available for
anybody to read.
Speaker 2 (09:03):
There are some big numbers in there.
Speaker 1 (09:05):
There's two times as much onshore wind that needs to
be built by twenty thirty, three times as much solar,
lots of more energy storage, a lot more transmission, five
times as much flexibility on the grid on the demand side,
which we should talk about. But the main thing you
take from it is that you're going to have to
build for a rapidly changing system, and that means it's
(09:29):
going to be expensive. The estimate is about two hundred
billion pounds of investment going towards the mission towards decarbonizing
the grid, but also expanding the grid. And given the
financial pressures that the government is facing, how do you
think that investment can be secured and how much of
that will the government be on the hook for.
Speaker 3 (09:51):
So let me again challenge a word that you use.
Speaker 4 (09:54):
It expensive is a word that's doing a lot of
it's doing a lot of heavy lifting in that question,
and I don't regard it as expensive. So let me
briefly explain why I think that we need to get
ourselves what we're only trying to do here. Yes, I'm
trying to clean up the power system and tremendously important
that we do that. But I think even more importantly
(10:15):
than that, we are preparing for a period after twenty
thirty when we're going to need to seriously grow the
power system because we expect the end use of transport
uses and the industrial uses and domestic heating and cooling
to become electric. And we're in a period now where
the demand for electricity before twenty thirty is probably fairly flat.
(10:38):
So if you can clean up the power system quickly,
you will be in the right place to then grow
the power system after that. So that expense, as you
called it, is basically a down payment on that. We
are investing in a clean power system that we know
we're going to need into the twenty thirties. Now, the
mission twenty thirty is enormous challenge. We've got another one
(11:00):
after that, hopefully at a more measurable measured pace, to
grow the power system, probably by fifty percent, possibly even
more than that, might even double by twenty fifty. So
we are basically getting ahead of that by encouraging that investment.
And that two hundred billion you referred to is what
happens if you roll up the investments in storage, in generation,
(11:21):
and in networks that we think we need for twenty thirty.
That prepares us and that is not a cost directly
to the consumer, at least not initially, so we will
recover those costs from the consumer or from the taxpayer.
Speaker 3 (11:35):
These are choices over a very long period.
Speaker 4 (11:38):
So we're in a moment where if you walk with
me on this, we can get the investment done early.
We can benefit in terms of the benefit to the
economy from that investment. We buy ourselves an enormous amount
of additional energy security with that investment, and the costs
to the consumer come after that over a very long
period match the game a reduction in the costs from
(12:01):
not burning fossil fuels in the power system. So if
we play our cards right, bring that all together, we
get an enormous economic return, we get a huge climate benefit,
we get energy security, and we don't have that cost
to the consumer that lots of people worry about. And
I am confident that can be done. I'm also confident
that the kind of power system you get at the
end of that, with long term contracts for renewables particularly,
(12:25):
brings down what we call the wholesale price of electricity
and translating that into a lower cost for the consumer
is a really nice challenge to have.
Speaker 1 (12:33):
I think so Clean Power Mission obviously says on the
tin what you're doing, but if you read the announcement,
it's clean power mission with cheaper electricity prices. Right, It's
not just about decarbonization, it's about lowering electricity prices.
Speaker 2 (12:49):
And now we've seen in.
Speaker 1 (12:50):
Elections around the world that when governments don't address these
pocketbook issues around energy prices, they get booted out. In
my own analysis, I have not seen a single country
where there is high electricity prices and high electrification rate
or just the absolute amount. And so isn't there a
risk in the plan that you've laid out, which is
(13:14):
going to require to build a lot more gas power
plants as a way of managing the intermittency that comes
with renewables.
Speaker 2 (13:19):
Of course there's storage that will be included. But isn't
there a risk with even.
Speaker 1 (13:24):
More gas power plants even if the reliance on gas
is going down, that the prices of electricity may rise.
The UK has among the highest electricity prices already, they
could become costlier. How will you deal with that scenario?
Speaker 4 (13:40):
So I am sure we can bring down costs to
the consumer. I don't know exactly what the price of
electricity will be in twenty thirty because a lot of
it is so dependent on globally traded gas. And actually
that's the secret here is that at the moment, even
though we have very extensive power system renewables, power system,
gas sets the price very often in the wholesale market,
(14:03):
and that price of gas, but in the last few
years has been at historic high, quite astonishing levels over
the last two or three years, and it continues to
be the reason why eltricity prices are high in this country.
I don't know what's going to happen to the gas
price if the gas price fell, so too with eltricity prices,
But in a sense, I don't want to be wedded
(14:23):
to that uncertainty any longer.
Speaker 3 (14:24):
So there's two aspects to the energy security point.
Speaker 4 (14:27):
I think one is the actual energy security that comes
from having some homegrown power, especially from renewables, also some
nuclear in.
Speaker 3 (14:35):
There with storage.
Speaker 1 (14:36):
You know.
Speaker 4 (14:36):
That idea of being more self sufficient that I could put
it that way, and less dependent on those goal markets
is one aspect of energy security. The other one is
the energy insecurity that comes to the consumer from the
requirement to be on this you know, very unpredictable gas
price roller coaster. And we buy ourselves quite a lot
of insurance by doing what we're trying to do with
the clean power to the clean power goal. And the
(14:58):
crucial point is that if you want to displace gas,
you've got two things to do. One is to build
out more of those long term renewable contracts and clean
power contracts that we will sign over the next few
years and reduce the points over the course of the
year when gas sets the price, and that's essentially what
we're doing. And the other thing that we can do
is bring on a set of technologies that provide a
similar service to a gas fire power station when you
(15:20):
need it, and they are typically the sort of low
carbon flex that you need in the power system or
long duration energy storage technologies. So those moments when you
absolutely have to turn to gas at the moment, and
the reason we are able to accommodate renewals is because
we have.
Speaker 3 (15:34):
That gas fleet. We also could do with moving to
a new set of technologies that sort of displace the
market power of gas at that moment, and we will
do that too. So there's lots of.
Speaker 4 (15:44):
Reasons to think that the consumer price can come down,
but you've got to deploy these things at scale quickly
to see that happen. And that two hundred billion that
you referred to is but north of forty billion pounds
of capex each year between now and the end of
twenty thirty is the investment in that grid that supports
that and those technologies, and that is the secret. Now,
(16:05):
let me just agree with the premise of the question.
You're absolutely right to say that our success depends not
just on building stuff, but also in the consumer seeing
the benefit of that. I think there's a broader story
beyond just consumer prices about the economy and people in
the communities hosting infrastructure scenes and benefit from that too,
And you might extend that into of public consent for
(16:27):
these things. These are the things that keep me awake
at night, so I'm restless to get that sorted.
Speaker 3 (16:32):
Those consumer issues.
Speaker 4 (16:34):
I would really like to see us move to where
we were seeing the electricity price in particular come down,
because the rest of the story on decarbonization rests on
a cheaper electricity price.
Speaker 3 (16:45):
Ultimately, if you want people to take a.
Speaker 4 (16:47):
Heat pump, if you want people to move to electric car,
if you want industries to move to electrified technologies, the
best possible policy is a cheaper electricity prize.
Speaker 1 (17:04):
After the break, more from a conversation with Chris Stock
And if you've been enjoying this episode, please take a
moment to rate and review the show on Apple Podcasts
or Spotify. It helps other listeners find the show. In
(17:25):
trying to get to cheaper electricity prices, one thing that
you have to do a lot of is to build
transmission so that you are not paying to shut down
wind power in the north when there is demand in
the south. Last year those payments added up to one
point eight billion pounds from the Great Operator just to
shut wind power in the North down. But there is
(17:46):
a lot of opposition to transmission, just to building in general.
How do you maintain support for the transition and for
building when people are not willing to allow for building
or you know, there's anger being stoked to try and
(18:07):
stop transmission from being built.
Speaker 4 (18:10):
So a few things on this. The first thing is
we've got to do genuine consertation for those communities. So
I mean, this is not a plan that will ride
roughshod over those communities, but there are going to be
some difficult decisions I had about location of infrastructure, so
I don't think I conduct that. I would say though
as a country as a whole, what holds us back
(18:31):
is the fact that we haven't built stuff quickly enough.
So my feeling, certainly from the ten years plus I've
been looking at this, is that there's a frustration commonly
expressed that we just haven't gone and done the job.
So the sort of top line here is we're going
to build things in this country, and that is the
measure of success. The barriers to that are actually pretty extensive,
(18:55):
and they're often barriers that the government itself puts in place.
Speaker 3 (18:58):
Some of them are really justified, some of them less.
Speaker 4 (19:00):
So we need to push through those barriers and make
sure that we have the minimum of delay in getting
infrastructure in the right place of the country that we need.
But the kind of next part of this, I suppose
is that if you buy that idea that we're going
to build it, I think you've also got to take
people with you on the value of doing this in
the round. And the ultimate test of whether wee I'm
(19:24):
successful or not is whether people see the value of
the power system that we're creating, either in their bills
or in the energy security that I talked about. And
the very final thing, I'll make it very quickly. There
is a story out there. You do read it that
we're somehow going to carpet the country and pylons and
wind farms.
Speaker 3 (19:41):
Absolutely not true. We are not going to do that.
Speaker 4 (19:44):
So I think the other part of the story is
bringing some rational discussion to that. It's actually quite that's
very few parts of the country that will see development.
Most of the grid investment is offshore. So I think
we can do this in a way that sort of
by support as long as we are truthful and honest
than direct about what we're trying to do and the
impacts that will bring.
Speaker 1 (20:02):
So global electricity demand rise, as we saw is about
three percent expected to be in countries like India and China,
they've seen seven to ten percent electricity demand rise for
now over two decades.
Speaker 2 (20:16):
And they know how to build and the UK does not, as.
Speaker 1 (20:19):
You've talked about, even if we take the public opposition out,
so offshore building for example, you know the North to
sell transmission lines that need to be built, they take
about five years together. So by the time you plan
for a transmission grade offshore today, it won't be working
for you for your clean power plan by twenty thirty.
(20:40):
So what is the government doing to try and speed
up construction when there isn't public opposition to those projects?
Speaker 4 (20:47):
So we have a plan in this country that predates
me doing this job, has been developed already and needs
to get through the planning system in some shape or form.
I'm sure they'll be changes to that plan with they're minor.
And just to make that point, this is the story
I wish more people knew, and I'm going to make
sure that everyone hears it. We have now a really
(21:10):
good piece of analysis that shows us that there are
eighty eight projects.
Speaker 3 (21:14):
We need network works, as we call them.
Speaker 4 (21:16):
Some of those are links of cable, some of them
are substations, converted stations, eighty eight of them which deliver
us the per system that we could build by twenty
thirty that would be very very clean. Indeed, so that
the sort of network that we require of the eighty
of them are essential for that twenty thirty target. They
are already in an advanced state. So we will build
(21:40):
those projects and support the transmission owners to get them
built by twenty thirty. And I'm confident about that because
they are ready to go, and there are armies of
people ready now to get going on that. So I
think this is the reason I am optimistic about it,
because if you can build that kind of network, connect
to it the generation that we need, and do one
more thing, which is where I think we are being
(22:02):
genuinely ambitious and might say radical, which is to go
into the queue of projects waiting to connect to the
grid and actually curate it, so you know, connect the
projects that we know are ready and which deliver a
strategically what we need for twenty thirty. Doing that kind
of surgery to the grid. Q the support of NISO
in this country is the other thing that we've done
(22:23):
with that, and essentially that allows me then to bring
on the generation the storage projects that we know we
can have on the system by twenty thirty connected to
that grid that we're going to build. Now, that is
a story of building it to time that we will
also want to tell other countries around the world that
we have done, because that will overturn decades of inertia,
(22:44):
which is a term you shouldn't use in the power system,
but decades of decades of what we would like some
inertia in the persistem definitely, But that is a brilliant story.
It's a far better story to tell than you know,
the latest ambitious goal for twenty fifty that we're setting,
because we're actually getting on with building stuff now and
that is I think going to need to be the
challenge that every other country faces into too.
Speaker 1 (23:06):
So when last year we spoke, you were heading the
Climate Change Committee.
Speaker 2 (23:10):
You were an independent watchdog.
Speaker 1 (23:12):
You could look at the government and tell them what
they're getting right and what they're getting wrong. Now you
are in government and you know Labor Party was very
ambitious on climate when it was in the opposition. That
messaging has certainly become mixed over the six months that
they've been around. Right, we heard from Rachel Reeves who
wants to build the third runway on Heathrow but also
(23:32):
expand airports around the country, which has been criticized by
environmental groups. There are rumors that you know, Starmer might
not oppose the extraction of oil and gas in the
Nazia at Rosebank or Jackdaw. When this government downplays the
bold action that's needed on climate, doesn't that make your.
Speaker 2 (23:51):
Job harder and how are you going to achieve your mission?
Speaker 4 (23:54):
Well, I don't think as a government we are downplaying
the importance of our claim objectives. And you can use
the word but I mean again, I'll go back to
what I said earlier. I think the challenge is to
get stuff done on this. I mean, the best possible
response to the critics to say that you've walked away
from climate objectives, to say no, we're actually doing it.
You know, on Heathrow, for example, there is room to
manage he throw with under a carbon budget. Ed Miliband
(24:17):
has said just that. So we are maintaining commitment to
our legal goals here. I don't doubt it becomes more
challenging as you bring more emissions into one setor you've
got to work harder somewhere else.
Speaker 3 (24:26):
But that's the point of a carbon budget.
Speaker 4 (24:28):
And you know, I'm very sure there's a government still
committed to climate. I wouldn't do the show otherwise. Funnily enough,
I'm also committed to climate. I'm absolutely sure Ed Miliband
is too. I think interestingly, the Prime Minister is the
other strong advocate for climate. He's had two very successful
visits to a cop now speaks really eloquently on the
(24:48):
need to do all this and I think sees the
opportunity for global leadership on climate. So every decision we
take as a government is measured against that and we're ambitious,
but mainly that ambition needs to be expressed through or
desire to get stuff delivered.
Speaker 1 (25:04):
Now. I think so last question a global question, because
you are saying that if you agree that the global
consensus on climate cannot be taken for granted, there are
certainly big economies starting with the US that are starting
to pull away from climate commitments. So you hear noises
from Argentina, from Russia, from New Zealand, of all places.
(25:26):
There is a vacuum that is being created right now
and it's getting stronger as we go into COP thirty
later this year for real leadership on climate. Do you
think the UK can fill that and how exactly?
Speaker 3 (25:40):
I do think that.
Speaker 4 (25:40):
I don't think we can entirely fill it, And of
course I regret what's happening in other countries. I mean,
it's the US decision to pull out of Paris is
something that is course we regret that. I mean, you
need the bigger the club, the better. But you have
to hope. I suppose, and I don't know if it's
just that. I don't know if it's a hope or
a prediction that over the next periar it will be
(26:02):
the technology that the advances and the fact that the
fundamental economics of the clean transition take hold. That's where
I think we can show leadership, so our willingness to
do difficult things to build that infrastructure that we talked about,
to stay committed to a clean power system that is
going to be dominated by renewables.
Speaker 3 (26:22):
That's the fantastic story for us to.
Speaker 4 (26:24):
Tell you, and as we build that out, I hope
we're also to show the benefits of that. The non
climate benefits of that system are in a sense where
I think we deliver the most obvious leadership.
Speaker 3 (26:36):
We can say we did this for lots of reasons.
Speaker 4 (26:39):
It happened to benefit the climate, but it brought a
host of benefits beyond that to the country, and in
the end it becomes irresistible. I mean, I think we're
on the bus now with these technologies. The question is
only how quickly we travel.
Speaker 3 (26:51):
And I'm extremely.
Speaker 4 (26:53):
Happy for the UK to take a lead on that
for the next few years. And I'd like to demonstrate
that we're doing the right stuff because we're going to
regret it. Others will regret it if they don't fall
a suit. Thank you, Chris, thank.
Speaker 1 (27:04):
You Action, thank you for listening to zero. And now
for the sound of the week. That's the sound of
(27:27):
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You can get in touch at zero pod at bloomberg
(27:48):
dot net. Zero's producer is might Leraw. Bloomberg's head of
podcast is Sage Powerman, and head of Talk is Brendan
newman Our. The music is composed by Wonderly Special thanks
to Will Mathis, arn Chen, Amon Farat and Jessica Big.
Thanks also to the British Library. I'm the Common Trust.
I am Akshatrati Back soon.
Welcome to zero. I am UKTUA thrated this week the
UK's big bet. I read a lot of headlines about
(00:21):
climate change and I know you do too. Together they
paint a dire picture because climate impacts are growing and
wore leaders are stepping back from bold action needed to
tackle climate change. It's something that we talk about on
this show with some frequency. But last week I saw
something that bucked the trend. The UK submitted new climate
(00:43):
goals for twenty thirty five to the United Nations, and
they are among the boldest and most ambitious in the world.
The UK has long been a climate leader. It created
the first climate change law for a large economy all
the way back in two thousand and eight. It built
an independent watchdog in the Climate Change Committee. It's twenty
thirty five goal, we'll see an eighty one percent reduction
(01:06):
in greenhouse gas emissions relative to nineteen ninety levels, and
now it has a plan to reach clean power by
twenty thirty So how is it that the UK is
making big bets when everybody else is stepping back. The
best person to help us understand that is Chris Stark.
He used to run the Climate Change Committee and now
(01:27):
runs the newly created mission controlled Task Force for Clean Power.
He is the Labor government's man to make sure that
the UK reaches ninety five percent clean power by twenty thirty.
It's a tough goal, and even tougher when you're trying
to do it while reducing energy prices. But even as
(01:48):
Chris focuses on this ambitious goal, Labor's leaders are sending
mixed signals. They want to open new runways and expand
airports across the UK, including at Heathrow. They might even
sign off on new oil fields in the Nazia. All
of that is going to add complication to Chris's job,
so we had a lot to talk about. I spoke
(02:09):
with Chris at the British Library in London at the
Energy Transition Acceleration Forum curated by the Carbon Trust. Welcome
(02:39):
to the forum and welcome to the Zero Podcast again.
Speaker 2 (02:42):
Chris.
Speaker 3 (02:42):
It's nice to be back with you again. Asha.
Speaker 1 (02:45):
Now let's start with the big picture before we get
to the goals that you are going to have to
achieve while you're working for the government. We spoke about
a year ago and you at that time told me
that the climate census in the UK cannot be taken
for granted.
Speaker 2 (03:03):
Since then, Donald Trump is back in the White House.
Speaker 1 (03:06):
The typically climate forward labor government has been at times
deprioritizing decarbonization.
Speaker 2 (03:14):
So would it be fair.
Speaker 1 (03:16):
To say that now the climate consensus globally cannot be
taken for granted? And what should climate forward leaders like
you and many of those in the audience be doing
at this time.
Speaker 4 (03:27):
So I stand by my comments to you a year ago.
It's amazing, that's only a year. Actually, that's incredible. It's
been quite a year. The climate consensus is not something
you should ever take for granted. And the best example
of that is that in the last year we've seen
some of the most extreme weather events that we've ever seen,
probably the most extreme year ever in terms.
Speaker 3 (03:49):
Of recorded history.
Speaker 4 (03:51):
But it doesn't connect automatically to desire globally, from at
least from our politicians globally, to do more on climate mitigation.
Interesting question whether it might lead to more of a
focus on client adaptation and resilience, I said, Rale. I
suspect it will, although I suspect we'll probably end up
calling it something else. But I sort of feel I
want to challenge some things that you said. I mean
(04:12):
I do think we are a climate forward government here
in the UK. And the difference I suppose is that
we are not in the world of setting you know,
new targets, only that we actually want to demonstrate that
you can deliver against those targets. So the reason I
do this job is because fundamentally, having been the person
that advised on the targets for the country for the
(04:32):
last well I've been at this there for more than
ten years. If someone offers you the chance to come
in and help deliver them, I feel you've got to
sort of take that up. So the Clean Power a
bit of this is just stage one, right, it's sort
of base camp. And once we're at base camp, we
can start sending the mountain. But that mountain is going
to be largely driven by electrifying our economy, as I'm sure.
Speaker 3 (04:55):
We'll discuss this in this discussion, but cleaning up.
Speaker 4 (04:59):
The power system is I think the very best way
for us to demonstrate that as a government we are
even more committed to our climate objectives because we're focused
now on delivering them.
Speaker 1 (05:10):
So the Clean Power Mission, and let's define it, because
it's ninety five percent clean power and five percent on
abated gas.
Speaker 2 (05:17):
It's been more than six months since you started.
Speaker 1 (05:21):
One of the important pieces of advice I ever got
at the start of my career from my Linel manager
was that you know, take six months to understand the job,
but by the end of it, you should know what
you're doing.
Speaker 2 (05:34):
So how confident are you? That's how you confident?
Speaker 1 (05:40):
Are you that the UK can reach the clean power
goal by twenty thirty and what have you done so
far to reach that conclusion?
Speaker 3 (05:51):
So I am confident.
Speaker 4 (05:52):
I mean I'm not recklessly confident, but I am confident
because I think I want to just make this point
that what we've committed to do is really right on
the edge of what we think is possible. So I
acknowledge that we call it a mission for a reason.
It is an actual mission, and just to make the
point that you know, governments can have a few missions,
(06:12):
they can't have hundreds. And I think it is really
important that we selected this one as as something that
has the support of the whole government right up to
the Prime Minister'd say it also has the support of
other parts of government in the UK as well, including
notably our devolved governments. You're right to define it so
(06:34):
what we've done in the first six months, we have
not wasted. I feel I'm coming up for seven months now.
I don't feel I've wasted a single day in that time.
Even over Christmas. We have moved lightning fast to try
and define what we mean quickly and then move into
quite an exciting period where we also define the policies
(06:55):
that we think will be needed to deliver it, to
allow me to start this year moving into genuine delivery mode.
Speaker 3 (07:02):
Now, let me just.
Speaker 4 (07:03):
Briefly cover those things. So the challenge of clean power.
The reason I do this job is because when I
was at the Climate Change Committee, I spent a very
happy period of my life working with some of the
world's best analysts looking at how you could decarbonize a
whole economy by twenty fifty. The last time we did
this was for the sixth Carbon Budget Assessment. We're about
(07:24):
to see the CCC's seventh Carbon Budget Assessment.
Speaker 3 (07:27):
I'll be a keen reader of that when it comes.
Speaker 4 (07:28):
But last time round we did something that I don't
expect the SECC to do this time, which we had
five different scenarios, all of them complete scenarios with integrity
within them, and they're all very different by design because
we wanted to it was the first time the country
had a net zero target. We wanted to demonstrate there
was more than one way to skin a cat, so
we looked at five different ways to hit that goal.
One thing you can do when you've done something like
(07:50):
that is look across the five and you can see
there's some common factors to those scenarios, quite a few
actually common facts is one of them is that there
is a point when you can see you've got a
clean power system. But the second points that is that
you shouldn't be overly purist about what that means. So
the kind of fundamental of what we're trying to do
in the UK is based on that analysis, and we've
basically asked our Energy system operator it's called NISO in
(08:12):
the UK, to give us their view of how you
fulfill a target like that. Basically in a world where
we expect to have gas in the power system, right,
so we are in a very unique moment where we
can use gas as a backup, flexible backup and progressively
reduce the amount of gas that we're burning each year
in the power system to the point where by twenty thirty.
(08:33):
End of twenty thirty, we're going to take the whole year,
but by the end of twenty thirty we might need it.
We can get that belief five percent in that year,
and I've called that herculean.
Speaker 3 (08:44):
I stand by that.
Speaker 4 (08:45):
That was what I said before I come into this job,
and it's that sort of effort that you need to
make it happen. Now we should talk about all the
things that need to be on to do that, but
we define that quickly and then produce an action plan
around that, and here we are at the start of
the year now implementing it.
Speaker 1 (08:59):
So the accent action plan is detailed, that's available for
anybody to read.
Speaker 2 (09:03):
There are some big numbers in there.
Speaker 1 (09:05):
There's two times as much onshore wind that needs to
be built by twenty thirty, three times as much solar,
lots of more energy storage, a lot more transmission, five
times as much flexibility on the grid on the demand side,
which we should talk about. But the main thing you
take from it is that you're going to have to
build for a rapidly changing system, and that means it's
(09:29):
going to be expensive. The estimate is about two hundred
billion pounds of investment going towards the mission towards decarbonizing
the grid, but also expanding the grid. And given the
financial pressures that the government is facing, how do you
think that investment can be secured and how much of
that will the government be on the hook for.
Speaker 3 (09:51):
So let me again challenge a word that you use.
Speaker 4 (09:54):
It expensive is a word that's doing a lot of
it's doing a lot of heavy lifting in that question,
and I don't regard it as expensive. So let me
briefly explain why I think that we need to get
ourselves what we're only trying to do here. Yes, I'm
trying to clean up the power system and tremendously important
that we do that. But I think even more importantly
(10:15):
than that, we are preparing for a period after twenty
thirty when we're going to need to seriously grow the
power system because we expect the end use of transport
uses and the industrial uses and domestic heating and cooling
to become electric. And we're in a period now where
the demand for electricity before twenty thirty is probably fairly flat.
(10:38):
So if you can clean up the power system quickly,
you will be in the right place to then grow
the power system after that. So that expense, as you
called it, is basically a down payment on that. We
are investing in a clean power system that we know
we're going to need into the twenty thirties. Now, the
mission twenty thirty is enormous challenge. We've got another one
(11:00):
after that, hopefully at a more measurable measured pace, to
grow the power system, probably by fifty percent, possibly even
more than that, might even double by twenty fifty. So
we are basically getting ahead of that by encouraging that investment.
And that two hundred billion you referred to is what
happens if you roll up the investments in storage, in generation,
(11:21):
and in networks that we think we need for twenty thirty.
That prepares us and that is not a cost directly
to the consumer, at least not initially, so we will
recover those costs from the consumer or from the taxpayer.
Speaker 3 (11:35):
These are choices over a very long period.
Speaker 4 (11:38):
So we're in a moment where if you walk with
me on this, we can get the investment done early.
We can benefit in terms of the benefit to the
economy from that investment. We buy ourselves an enormous amount
of additional energy security with that investment, and the costs
to the consumer come after that over a very long
period match the game a reduction in the costs from
(12:01):
not burning fossil fuels in the power system. So if
we play our cards right, bring that all together, we
get an enormous economic return, we get a huge climate benefit,
we get energy security, and we don't have that cost
to the consumer that lots of people worry about. And
I am confident that can be done. I'm also confident
that the kind of power system you get at the
end of that, with long term contracts for renewables particularly,
(12:25):
brings down what we call the wholesale price of electricity
and translating that into a lower cost for the consumer
is a really nice challenge to have.
Speaker 1 (12:33):
I think so Clean Power Mission obviously says on the
tin what you're doing, but if you read the announcement,
it's clean power mission with cheaper electricity prices. Right, It's
not just about decarbonization, it's about lowering electricity prices.
Speaker 2 (12:49):
And now we've seen in.
Speaker 1 (12:50):
Elections around the world that when governments don't address these
pocketbook issues around energy prices, they get booted out. In
my own analysis, I have not seen a single country
where there is high electricity prices and high electrification rate
or just the absolute amount. And so isn't there a
risk in the plan that you've laid out, which is
(13:14):
going to require to build a lot more gas power
plants as a way of managing the intermittency that comes
with renewables.
Speaker 2 (13:19):
Of course there's storage that will be included. But isn't
there a risk with even.
Speaker 1 (13:24):
More gas power plants even if the reliance on gas
is going down, that the prices of electricity may rise.
The UK has among the highest electricity prices already, they
could become costlier. How will you deal with that scenario?
Speaker 4 (13:40):
So I am sure we can bring down costs to
the consumer. I don't know exactly what the price of
electricity will be in twenty thirty because a lot of
it is so dependent on globally traded gas. And actually
that's the secret here is that at the moment, even
though we have very extensive power system renewables, power system,
gas sets the price very often in the wholesale market,
(14:03):
and that price of gas, but in the last few
years has been at historic high, quite astonishing levels over
the last two or three years, and it continues to
be the reason why eltricity prices are high in this country.
I don't know what's going to happen to the gas
price if the gas price fell, so too with eltricity prices,
But in a sense, I don't want to be wedded
(14:23):
to that uncertainty any longer.
Speaker 3 (14:24):
So there's two aspects to the energy security point.
Speaker 4 (14:27):
I think one is the actual energy security that comes
from having some homegrown power, especially from renewables, also some
nuclear in.
Speaker 3 (14:35):
There with storage.
Speaker 1 (14:36):
You know.
Speaker 4 (14:36):
That idea of being more self sufficient that I could put
it that way, and less dependent on those goal markets
is one aspect of energy security. The other one is
the energy insecurity that comes to the consumer from the
requirement to be on this you know, very unpredictable gas
price roller coaster. And we buy ourselves quite a lot
of insurance by doing what we're trying to do with
the clean power to the clean power goal. And the
(14:58):
crucial point is that if you want to displace gas,
you've got two things to do. One is to build
out more of those long term renewable contracts and clean
power contracts that we will sign over the next few
years and reduce the points over the course of the
year when gas sets the price, and that's essentially what
we're doing. And the other thing that we can do
is bring on a set of technologies that provide a
similar service to a gas fire power station when you
(15:20):
need it, and they are typically the sort of low
carbon flex that you need in the power system or
long duration energy storage technologies. So those moments when you
absolutely have to turn to gas at the moment, and
the reason we are able to accommodate renewals is because
we have.
Speaker 3 (15:34):
That gas fleet. We also could do with moving to
a new set of technologies that sort of displace the
market power of gas at that moment, and we will
do that too. So there's lots of.
Speaker 4 (15:44):
Reasons to think that the consumer price can come down,
but you've got to deploy these things at scale quickly
to see that happen. And that two hundred billion that
you referred to is but north of forty billion pounds
of capex each year between now and the end of
twenty thirty is the investment in that grid that supports
that and those technologies, and that is the secret. Now,
(16:05):
let me just agree with the premise of the question.
You're absolutely right to say that our success depends not
just on building stuff, but also in the consumer seeing
the benefit of that. I think there's a broader story
beyond just consumer prices about the economy and people in
the communities hosting infrastructure scenes and benefit from that too,
And you might extend that into of public consent for
(16:27):
these things. These are the things that keep me awake
at night, so I'm restless to get that sorted.
Speaker 3 (16:32):
Those consumer issues.
Speaker 4 (16:34):
I would really like to see us move to where
we were seeing the electricity price in particular come down,
because the rest of the story on decarbonization rests on
a cheaper electricity price.
Speaker 3 (16:45):
Ultimately, if you want people to take a.
Speaker 4 (16:47):
Heat pump, if you want people to move to electric car,
if you want industries to move to electrified technologies, the
best possible policy is a cheaper electricity prize.
Speaker 1 (17:04):
After the break, more from a conversation with Chris Stock
And if you've been enjoying this episode, please take a
moment to rate and review the show on Apple Podcasts
or Spotify. It helps other listeners find the show. In
(17:25):
trying to get to cheaper electricity prices, one thing that
you have to do a lot of is to build
transmission so that you are not paying to shut down
wind power in the north when there is demand in
the south. Last year those payments added up to one
point eight billion pounds from the Great Operator just to
shut wind power in the North down. But there is
(17:46):
a lot of opposition to transmission, just to building in general.
How do you maintain support for the transition and for
building when people are not willing to allow for building
or you know, there's anger being stoked to try and
(18:07):
stop transmission from being built.
Speaker 4 (18:10):
So a few things on this. The first thing is
we've got to do genuine consertation for those communities. So
I mean, this is not a plan that will ride
roughshod over those communities, but there are going to be
some difficult decisions I had about location of infrastructure, so
I don't think I conduct that. I would say though
as a country as a whole, what holds us back
(18:31):
is the fact that we haven't built stuff quickly enough.
So my feeling, certainly from the ten years plus I've
been looking at this, is that there's a frustration commonly
expressed that we just haven't gone and done the job.
So the sort of top line here is we're going
to build things in this country, and that is the
measure of success. The barriers to that are actually pretty extensive,
(18:55):
and they're often barriers that the government itself puts in place.
Speaker 3 (18:58):
Some of them are really justified, some of them less.
Speaker 4 (19:00):
So we need to push through those barriers and make
sure that we have the minimum of delay in getting
infrastructure in the right place of the country that we need.
But the kind of next part of this, I suppose
is that if you buy that idea that we're going
to build it, I think you've also got to take
people with you on the value of doing this in
the round. And the ultimate test of whether wee I'm
(19:24):
successful or not is whether people see the value of
the power system that we're creating, either in their bills
or in the energy security that I talked about. And
the very final thing, I'll make it very quickly. There
is a story out there. You do read it that
we're somehow going to carpet the country and pylons and
wind farms.
Speaker 3 (19:41):
Absolutely not true. We are not going to do that.
Speaker 4 (19:44):
So I think the other part of the story is
bringing some rational discussion to that. It's actually quite that's
very few parts of the country that will see development.
Most of the grid investment is offshore. So I think
we can do this in a way that sort of
by support as long as we are truthful and honest
than direct about what we're trying to do and the
impacts that will bring.
Speaker 1 (20:02):
So global electricity demand rise, as we saw is about
three percent expected to be in countries like India and China,
they've seen seven to ten percent electricity demand rise for
now over two decades.
Speaker 2 (20:16):
And they know how to build and the UK does not, as.
Speaker 1 (20:19):
You've talked about, even if we take the public opposition out,
so offshore building for example, you know the North to
sell transmission lines that need to be built, they take
about five years together. So by the time you plan
for a transmission grade offshore today, it won't be working
for you for your clean power plan by twenty thirty.
(20:40):
So what is the government doing to try and speed
up construction when there isn't public opposition to those projects?
Speaker 4 (20:47):
So we have a plan in this country that predates
me doing this job, has been developed already and needs
to get through the planning system in some shape or form.
I'm sure they'll be changes to that plan with they're minor.
And just to make that point, this is the story
I wish more people knew, and I'm going to make
sure that everyone hears it. We have now a really
(21:10):
good piece of analysis that shows us that there are
eighty eight projects.
Speaker 3 (21:14):
We need network works, as we call them.
Speaker 4 (21:16):
Some of those are links of cable, some of them
are substations, converted stations, eighty eight of them which deliver
us the per system that we could build by twenty
thirty that would be very very clean. Indeed, so that
the sort of network that we require of the eighty
of them are essential for that twenty thirty target. They
are already in an advanced state. So we will build
(21:40):
those projects and support the transmission owners to get them
built by twenty thirty. And I'm confident about that because
they are ready to go, and there are armies of
people ready now to get going on that. So I
think this is the reason I am optimistic about it,
because if you can build that kind of network, connect
to it the generation that we need, and do one
more thing, which is where I think we are being
(22:02):
genuinely ambitious and might say radical, which is to go
into the queue of projects waiting to connect to the
grid and actually curate it, so you know, connect the
projects that we know are ready and which deliver a
strategically what we need for twenty thirty. Doing that kind
of surgery to the grid. Q the support of NISO
in this country is the other thing that we've done
(22:23):
with that, and essentially that allows me then to bring
on the generation the storage projects that we know we
can have on the system by twenty thirty connected to
that grid that we're going to build. Now, that is
a story of building it to time that we will
also want to tell other countries around the world that
we have done, because that will overturn decades of inertia,
(22:44):
which is a term you shouldn't use in the power system,
but decades of decades of what we would like some
inertia in the persistem definitely, But that is a brilliant story.
It's a far better story to tell than you know,
the latest ambitious goal for twenty fifty that we're setting,
because we're actually getting on with building stuff now and
that is I think going to need to be the
challenge that every other country faces into too.
Speaker 1 (23:06):
So when last year we spoke, you were heading the
Climate Change Committee.
Speaker 2 (23:10):
You were an independent watchdog.
Speaker 1 (23:12):
You could look at the government and tell them what
they're getting right and what they're getting wrong. Now you
are in government and you know Labor Party was very
ambitious on climate when it was in the opposition. That
messaging has certainly become mixed over the six months that
they've been around. Right, we heard from Rachel Reeves who
wants to build the third runway on Heathrow but also
(23:32):
expand airports around the country, which has been criticized by
environmental groups. There are rumors that you know, Starmer might
not oppose the extraction of oil and gas in the
Nazia at Rosebank or Jackdaw. When this government downplays the
bold action that's needed on climate, doesn't that make your.
Speaker 2 (23:51):
Job harder and how are you going to achieve your mission?
Speaker 4 (23:54):
Well, I don't think as a government we are downplaying
the importance of our claim objectives. And you can use
the word but I mean again, I'll go back to
what I said earlier. I think the challenge is to
get stuff done on this. I mean, the best possible
response to the critics to say that you've walked away
from climate objectives, to say no, we're actually doing it.
You know, on Heathrow, for example, there is room to
manage he throw with under a carbon budget. Ed Miliband
(24:17):
has said just that. So we are maintaining commitment to
our legal goals here. I don't doubt it becomes more
challenging as you bring more emissions into one setor you've
got to work harder somewhere else.
Speaker 3 (24:26):
But that's the point of a carbon budget.
Speaker 4 (24:28):
And you know, I'm very sure there's a government still
committed to climate. I wouldn't do the show otherwise. Funnily enough,
I'm also committed to climate. I'm absolutely sure Ed Miliband
is too. I think interestingly, the Prime Minister is the
other strong advocate for climate. He's had two very successful
visits to a cop now speaks really eloquently on the
(24:48):
need to do all this and I think sees the
opportunity for global leadership on climate. So every decision we
take as a government is measured against that and we're ambitious,
but mainly that ambition needs to be expressed through or
desire to get stuff delivered.
Speaker 1 (25:04):
Now. I think so last question a global question, because
you are saying that if you agree that the global
consensus on climate cannot be taken for granted, there are
certainly big economies starting with the US that are starting
to pull away from climate commitments. So you hear noises
from Argentina, from Russia, from New Zealand, of all places.
(25:26):
There is a vacuum that is being created right now
and it's getting stronger as we go into COP thirty
later this year for real leadership on climate. Do you
think the UK can fill that and how exactly?
Speaker 3 (25:40):
I do think that.
Speaker 4 (25:40):
I don't think we can entirely fill it, And of
course I regret what's happening in other countries. I mean,
it's the US decision to pull out of Paris is
something that is course we regret that. I mean, you
need the bigger the club, the better. But you have
to hope. I suppose, and I don't know if it's
just that. I don't know if it's a hope or
a prediction that over the next periar it will be
(26:02):
the technology that the advances and the fact that the
fundamental economics of the clean transition take hold. That's where
I think we can show leadership, so our willingness to
do difficult things to build that infrastructure that we talked about,
to stay committed to a clean power system that is
going to be dominated by renewables.
Speaker 3 (26:22):
That's the fantastic story for us to.
Speaker 4 (26:24):
Tell you, and as we build that out, I hope
we're also to show the benefits of that. The non
climate benefits of that system are in a sense where
I think we deliver the most obvious leadership.
Speaker 3 (26:36):
We can say we did this for lots of reasons.
Speaker 4 (26:39):
It happened to benefit the climate, but it brought a
host of benefits beyond that to the country, and in
the end it becomes irresistible. I mean, I think we're
on the bus now with these technologies. The question is
only how quickly we travel.
Speaker 3 (26:51):
And I'm extremely.
Speaker 4 (26:53):
Happy for the UK to take a lead on that
for the next few years. And I'd like to demonstrate
that we're doing the right stuff because we're going to
regret it. Others will regret it if they don't fall
a suit. Thank you, Chris, thank.
Speaker 1 (27:04):
You Action, thank you for listening to zero. And now
for the sound of the week. That's the sound of
(27:27):
a live electric cable being repaired by workers in a
helicopter wearing Faraday Cage suits. If you liked this episode,
please take a moment to rate and review the show
on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Share this episode with a
friend or with someone who's worried about Pylon's marring the Skyline.
You can get in touch at zero pod at bloomberg
(27:48):
dot net. Zero's producer is might Leraw. Bloomberg's head of
podcast is Sage Powerman, and head of Talk is Brendan
newman Our. The music is composed by Wonderly Special thanks
to Will Mathis, arn Chen, Amon Farat and Jessica Big.
Thanks also to the British Library. I'm the Common Trust.
I am Akshatrati Back soon.
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