Canso Radio
Canso provides portfolio management services to Canadian institutional and private investors, specializing in fundamental research and security selection. These publications have been prepared by Canso Investment Counsel Ltd. and have been prepared solely for information purposes. Information in these publications is not intended to constitute legal, tax, securities or investment advice and is made available on an “as is” basis. Information in these presentations is subject to change without notice. Canso Investment Counsel Ltd. does not assume any duty to update any information herein. Certain information in these publications has been derived or obtained from sources believed to be trustworthy and/or reliable. Canso Investment Counsel Ltd. does not assume responsibility for the accuracy, currency, reliability or correctness of any such information. These publications may contain forward-looking statements. Statements concerning a fund’s or entity’s objectives, goals, strategies, intentions, plans, beliefs, expectations and estimates, and the business, operations, financial performance and condition are forward-looking statements. The words “believe”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “estimate”, “intend”, “aims”, “may”, “will”, “would” and similar expressions and the negative of such expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements, although not all forward-looking statements contain these identifying words. These forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from current expectations. Viewers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. While Canso Investment Counsel Ltd. consider these risks and uncertainties to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. Please refer to the Canso website to view our source disclaimers at www.cansofunds.com/publications
Episodes
Oil markets were rocked following President Trump’s initial strikes on Iran. Global benchmark levels quickly rose over 60% in price, surpassing US$100/barrel for the first time since July 2022. As the U.S. and Iran grapple over the Strait of Hormuz, the price of oil continues to whipsaw. Investors are actively assessing the length of the conflict, damage to infrastructure in the region, and the supply response from ...
The financial and energy markets have run aground in the Strait of Hormuz. We and most knowledgeable experts had no idea that the perceived acclaim, ease and success of Trump’s Venezuelan adventure would lure him into trying his hand at Iran again. Our worries about eventual tariff driven inflation now seem quaint compared to what is going on with Iran’s blocking of the Strait of Hormuz and the damage to the oil ind...
The Blue Jays captured the hearts of Canadians this past season with an improbable run to the World Series. And while it ended with the heartbreak of a Game 7 extra-innings loss, the Jays wasted no time in their efforts to run it back, storming into the offseason with bold roster moves. Canadians are now gearing up for the upcoming Winter Olympics in February, where the return of NHL players to Olympic ice promises ...
Last year was a volatile one for the financial markets as unpredictable Donald Trump entered the White House in January. Expecting the returning President Trump to bring hot markets with his election, as in his first term, investors soon learned to their chagrin that he was serious about his “Beautiful Tariffs”. Markets then tanked, recovered and then soared when he dropped the worst of his tariffs. That, and a rene...
We last left you in early July with the observation that the financial markets now seemed to thrive on and reward uncertainty. The equity and credit markets had plunged in March on the initial economic fears over the Trump tariffs and then rebounded joyfully in April when Trump variously delayed and fiddled with his tariff strategy that had threatened to burn the U.S and global economy.
Sources:
- Source: Kirby, Jas...
Fear and uncertainty moved aside this summer, and optimism is now abound. Central Bankers are cutting rates, equity markets are touching new highs, and the Toronto Blue Jays are headed to the World Series! In credit markets, we also continue to experience historically strong market conditions.
Sources:
- Ronalds-Hannon, Eliza and Weinman, Aaron. (2025, October 12). From Tricolor to Saks, Bonds are Now Crashing at B...
Interest rates have been on the rise since the end of the first quarter, particularly in the long-end of the curve. From March 31st until time of publication, Canadian long bonds have risen 66 basis points (bps) while their American counterparts are up 44 bps, translating into price declines of 13% and 7%, respectively.
Sources:
- Fool, Motley. (2025, May 22). The U.S. Government’s Credit Rating Just Got Downgrade...
The theme of our previous April 2025 Market Observer was that only a fool would try to predict what would happen to the financial markets and the global economies after Donald Trump declared his Tariff War on the World. The more expertise you possessed, the less you were probably able to forecast the actual outcome. As they say, it’s not over until it’s over but rising equity markets and tightening credit spreads we...
We were writing about the confused state of political and economic affairs in June and wondered, like the Marvin Gaye song title, “What’s Going On?”. We marvelled at how the financial markets were ignoring any bad news in their haste to move ever upwards in price.
We are starting to see more and more credit opportunities emerging. Even though default rates remain relatively low, the increase in distressed transactions points to increasing stress among highly levered companies as interest rates remain higher for longer.
"What’s Going On” was the plaintive refrain and title of Marvin Gaye’s 1971 hit song about the controversial Vietnam War and the resulting societal and political upset in the United States. His song of confusion and disappointment seems as relevant to us today. We look with trepidation on the political and social tumult around the world and wonder ourselves what is going on.
Like George W. Bush standing on the deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln in May 2003, the market appears to have hoisted the “Mission Accomplished” banner on this monetary tightening cycle. Risk premiums have dropped, borrowers have renewed access to capital and the percentage of economists predicting a recession has dropped considerably from the “100%” tally of not so many months ago.
The so-called experts who called for dismal markets in 2023 were nowhere to be found in the 2024 New Year prognostications. Happy days were here again, and nobody wanted to spoil the fortunes from soaring markets that had been handed to investors by saying anything remotely negative this time around.
Corporate bond markets raced higher in the fourth quarter as inflation continued to decline, labour market strength showed signs of moderating and Federal Reserve policymakers signaled their rate hiking efforts may be coming to an end.
Generations of finance students have been taught Efficient Markets theory, but we have always begged to differ. What happened in 2023 to the financial markets and the economy should give anyone pause about how efficient the financial markets really are.
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