April 9, 2025 • 39 mins
Gregg Rosenthal is joined by Nick Shook for a deep dive into this year's offensive linemen class and an early look ahead at next season's win totals. First, Shook tells which lineman in this draft class is his ultimate guy (01:45), the most likely to be an All-Pro (04:40), is his favorite interior lineman (09:00), the biggest boom or bust candidate (13:00), and the hidden gem of the class (18:40). After the break, Gregg and Nick give you their first impressions of the NFL's 2025 win totals (24:28).
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:04):
Welcome to NFL Daily, where the big uglies are beautiful
to us. I'm Greg Rosenthal here with Nick Shook, continuing
our look ahead to the NFL Draft. It's been a
big week. We did the quarterbacks little mock draft, and
now we're going to take a look at Nick Shook's
favorite type of players, the offensive lineman, just like he
(00:26):
was back in the day.
Speaker 2 (00:28):
Oh yeah, back in the day when I was a
little bit wider around. And yeah, I mean, I don't
know how you're still doing all this draft content where
you have forties and free agents and now you're over
here talking.
Speaker 3 (00:39):
I mean, you're just pumping it out.
Speaker 1 (00:41):
No, this is a week where it felt like we've
been talking about Okay, we're gonna like slowly keep getting
more and more draft content, and then you know, with
two weeks left until the draft, where we're at now, Okay,
now we're just going daily draft content. And look, the
offensive line not the sexiest position on draft. Teams, like
fans are always a little disappointed. Oh we drafted a guard,
(01:03):
Oh we drafted a tackle. And then at the end
of the season everyone's like, how come our offensive line
isn't great? Like, how come the Eagles are winning the
Super Bowl year after year, so we got to do it,
and we're gonna make it fun by giving you a
bunch of different categories, taking like kind of the big
picture view of it. This is believed to be quite
a deep class, especially at interior offensive linemen, and the
(01:25):
tackle class is solid. But like a lot of this
draft class, it's kind of pick you know, it's dealer's
choice where the very top of the class maybe isn't
as good as other years, but it's very deep and solid,
you know, picks ten through seventy. So I'm going to
just give you some categories. We'll try to hit all
the relevant first couple of round guys as we go,
and if we don't, I'll circle back and mention a couple.
(01:48):
But you're the offensive line guy, I want you to
start off with the category what we're gonna call like
the ultimate Shook player. Who is the player from this
class on the O line that's like the ultimate ship guy.
Speaker 2 (02:00):
Yeah, we're years removed from me doing behind the offensive
line on NFL dot Com, but make no mistake, I
still am very fond of all these guys, and one
of the guys that I'm fondest of is Oregon tackle
Josh Connerly, who I loved his workout. I loved a
lot of his tape at Oregon and what I see
because the first thing I love in offensive lineman when
I watched them India, when I watch them on tape,
(02:22):
can they move? Can they get out in space? Can
they you know, win the battle of angles in the
to gain the leverage necessary to wall off a guy
or block them. Not necessarily the road graders necessary, or
the guys that are, you know, just so physically powerful
that they're overwhelmingly impressive, but guys that can get in
the right space, because in football it's all about winning
(02:42):
at the point of attack and getting there first and
creating those lanes for running backs. And I think that
Connorly is this guy. He is this guy who's got
a developmental side to him where he has the footwork,
he has the athleticism, he moved swiftly through his drills
in the combine.
Speaker 3 (02:56):
The tape backs it.
Speaker 2 (02:57):
Up, and it almost feels like he's a guy who
is going to put on strength at the next level
and become a complete tackle. There's a reason why you
talk about Joe Thomas talked about this all the time
basketball players at tackle. You want the athletes out there.
Lane Johnson is a great example of that. Do you
have the frame and the athleticism, you put the weight on,
they still have that body control. They become perennial All
(03:18):
pros and future Hall of famers. Not saying that Connor
is going to be that guy, but he is the
blend of athleticism, of fundamentals and technique, and you add
a little bit of strength and stoutness to him, and
I think he's going to be good at the next level.
And I'm a big fan of him and excited to
see where he goes.
Speaker 1 (03:32):
I love that you're planting your flag on Josh Connerly.
So he is thirty sixth in the consensus board, which
is something that just if you want to check out
that website, it just averages all the big boards all
over the place. He's thirty eighth on Daniel Jeremiah's board.
But he stands out to me in a way because
I listened to a great episode of Nate Tyson's podcast
(03:53):
Football three oh one, and he had his dad on
Mike Tice, who is an offensive line coach forever in
the NFL, and I love the way he sees the position.
And it was just hilarious to see if father son
and he had Connorly as ol one by the way
in the class. Yes, so higher than Will Campbell, higher
than armand Membo like he had him. He was a
(04:14):
running back way back in the day. Connorly so even
if he's not like an amazing athlete on player here,
like he knows how to play. He played well against
Abdul Carter, and I like that you're seeing it a
little differently. I'm it's gonna be real. I'm having you
be the expert today because I'm gonna read a lot
and I'm gonna listen to a lot and see a
lot with the offensive lineman. But I'm not going to
pretend that I'm like grinding left tackle tape. We're trying
(04:37):
to give our listeners, like a good idea of the
guys that they'll be taking in the draft. Let's do
it with another category. Let's go most likely to be
an All pro first. So in theory, this is a
sneaky way of me asking, like who would be the
best guy in this class at any position? Not who
(04:57):
gets drafted the highest, but who is the most likely
to be an All Pro player first.
Speaker 2 (05:02):
This is where teams swing and miss a lot, is
that they go for the measurables. They go for Granity
had a good year at guard this year, but they
go for the Makai Bectons because they test well and
they're just massive human beings. But oftentimes the fit isn't right,
or maybe the type of player isn't right. They fall
in love with the fact that he's massive and he's
a freak athlete, but maybe he's not the best offensive lineman.
I'm gonna go with a little bit of a catch
(05:23):
on this one because this is a guy who's been
talked about a lot, positively and negatively. It's Will Campbell
to tackle from LSU, and I'm saying he's most likely
to be an All Pro first at guard. Okay, and yeah,
this has been the debate with him. The length issue.
Oftentimes it's like hand size. Maybe you don't see it,
(05:43):
maybe it's overblown. I see it with him. I see
it in his tape. But he has tremendous feet. He
is very experienced from his time at lsuh restarted as
a freshman, but he lacks that length that you need
to win against guys like Miles Garrett, against those powerful
long edge rushers that can have incredible bend and can
simply use their length to create the separation where you
(06:03):
never get your hands on him. If you're lacking that
as a tackle, and it kind of shows in his tape,
that's going to be an issue for you at the
next level. But I think he has the rest of
the tools in his toolbox to be a fantastic guard,
could be an All Pro guard. I don't know if
he ends up with a team that moves him to that.
I think that's his long term future, just because I'm
going for higher ceiling, and his higher ceiling is as
a guard than it is as a tackle, solid tackle,
(06:26):
All Pro guard.
Speaker 3 (06:27):
That's why he's my pick.
Speaker 1 (06:28):
Yeah, and also this is a class where there's not
a lot of like projected All pros, and he's eighth
on the consensus board, and that's eighth player overall, not
eighth at the position ninth on Jeremiah's big board, so
they're in the same spot there. Yeah, there's a lot
of talk about his arm length, and you think about
some of the great guards recently, Quentin Nelson, he did
(06:49):
play a little left tackle, but ultimately he was a guard.
Zach Martin played a little left tackle, played well, Ultimately
he was a guy. Tyler Smith who's playing really well
for the Cowboys, played some tackle, and all these guys
can do it, but it can be even better. And
when he listened to Campbell in terms of the makeup
the reps, I mean, this guy has just played a
(07:10):
ton of big time football. There's a lot to like.
And the thing that gets me the most about him
in terms of guard, tackle, all this stuff, because a
lot of these guys could be guards or tackles. Look
at what the guards are making right now in the NFL,
Like Aaron Banks, a pretty generic guard from the forty
nine ers, just got seventy seven million over four years.
So I'm listening to what Jeremiah has said on our
(07:33):
show Forties and free Agents, and like this is the draft.
Maybe throw away the positional value thing, because like, just
pick who you think is going to be a good player,
don't worry if it's guard or tackle. And guards are
basically making money that cornerbacks are making like number one cornerbacks,
Like they're making a little less than tackles, but they're
still making a ton of.
Speaker 2 (07:51):
Money, and I think about what does he win with that?
Will Campbell specifically, he wins with his feet because he
doesn't have that length. He wins with his feet in
his positioning, and I think that can translate phenomenally well
at guard. Let's think about the NFC Divisional round in
which the Eagles play the Rams and they're getting beat
by stunts in the entire second half by Vig Fangio's defense. Right,
(08:11):
he's a guy who has the feat to be able
to adjust to that, to be able to become a
brick wall that you can count on in those situations.
Win with angles, win with leverage. I don't care if
he's that if he's not that long, when you're playing guard,
and then you also have the ability to get to
second level and really explode, you know, open up that
run game. I just think it's going to be a
higher ceiling for him, and again, best player, like you're
gonna build out your best five. I don't care if
(08:34):
he's playing left tackle right, you know, it's the blind
side protection and everything else.
Speaker 3 (08:37):
I don't care.
Speaker 2 (08:37):
I want the best offensive lineman in the best spot,
and I think that's his best fit.
Speaker 1 (08:41):
Think about how the Eagles won all those games. I
mean the Packers, they made them look so bad in
terms of their interior offensive line. Yeah, the Commanders, they
I mean, they dominate that game in a number of ways,
but that was one of them. In the Chiefs as well,
like really every game they played, the guard position on
the opposite team was a major problem. All right, let's
go to a different care Let's talk interior alignment. So
(09:02):
this is where it really gets into the nitty gritty shook.
Were you a tackle or guard? You're probably a tackle.
Speaker 2 (09:07):
I was a guard in high school because I played
next to a six seven like d one recruit, and
then college smaller school was a tackle.
Speaker 1 (09:15):
Okay, yeah, you seem like more of like a dancing
bear athletic type of guy. But you know, break breaking
down the interior offensive line tape. Look when they're like
running on the sweeps and stuff, that's fun and the
center getting out and pulling like that's fun. But ultimately,
I think for the average fan, they're not just grinding
that tape and thinking this is fun to watch. Guards.
Give me an interior alignment that is fun to watch.
Speaker 2 (09:37):
Oh, that means they wouldn't enjoy my last day at
the combine every year when you're watching guys with long poles,
just getting excited about foot quickness. My favorite interior offensive
lineman to watch on tape. This is a throwback, This
is a classic. This is the highlights that you're going
to see on your social media platforms. Because he's a bruiser,
he's a maller. His name is Tyler Booker from Alabama.
And I was listening to forties and free Agents and
listening to DJ talk about how he had slid in
(09:59):
his mock draft because he didn't have a good combine,
but he got some of that back at the pro day,
and I think that you can bind those two results
with the tape. Big fan of him, but why I
love him the most? Oh my god, Greg. If you
like pancakes and you like guys who are like Velcrow
with their hands, when they latch on and engage, they
don't let go, Tyler Booker is your guy. He is
(10:19):
consistently knocking guys off balance or planting them into the ground.
He engages and does not let go. Once his hands
are on you, you're cooked. You're gonna be with him for
the rest of the players and just hold on for
the ride. Guess is getting launched by him, Like I'm
just laughing watching his tape because he just gets in there.
Sometimes he'll finish guys off on double teams just for
the fun of it. It looks like there's one clipping
(10:39):
in particular I saw where he's in pass pro and
it's like a three man brush and there's a guy
kind of just floating, you know, maybe playing a little
bit of quarterback spy on Jaylen Noilro and at the
last second, he just steps up and launches him to
the ground. Like I'm just This guy is so much
fun to watch. He's extremely stout in pass protection. He's
got good eyes out in space, especially when he moves
to the second level. When you get into him impact pro,
(11:00):
it becomes a stalemate, which is what you want, especially
on those longer dropbacks, that they're not gaining depth, that
you're holding that wall and all I advise to guys
who play against him, don't get caught on his train
tracks because you're gonna get run over. He's got great engagement,
great drive, great power, and those hands are really strong.
He wins hand fights all the time. There was another
clip where they're playing Vanderbilt, and he knocks the guy's
(11:21):
hands down. The guy just false face first in the ground.
My classic throwback, big interior offensive lineman who's out to
prove a point and finish every play with emphasis.
Speaker 3 (11:29):
It's Tyler Booker.
Speaker 1 (11:31):
Love that, and he is twenty seventh on the consensus board.
He is twenty third on DJ's board. And so he's
probably gonna get taken into a good situation by a
good team as a piece for a team that just
needs some improvement to get them further in the playoffs.
(11:51):
It could be it could be like the Chargers. It
could be I think the Lions planning for the future
if he fell all the way down to them. We're
going to talk about these teams. By the way, I
should have mentioned at the top uh in our over
under segment. The over unders have been out for a minute,
and we just have some things that make us say
hmm about those and just some categories, some thoughts to
wrap the show. But I love all that on on
(12:12):
Tyler Booker. He's a guy. You know, some people think
maybe he's going to be better in like a gap
power type of scheme. Right, I was gonna say more
than his own, But like, isn't every team both at
this point, I mean, every every team has to do
a little bit of a bath. I do worry about
this type of guy, although everyone really thinks he's a
very safe, solid prospect. I do worry about sometimes the
(12:33):
guy that you hear the first thing you hear about
him is he just likes to put the guys in
the dirt. I don't know. Sometimes those guys turn into
Trevor Penning and we'll see, we'll see, let's go, let's
go Boomer. But I don't know if you're just lead
with that like I need more. Then again, some of
those some of those guys turn into Quinn Miners, Who's
been very fun to watch, right, I was gonna say
who the truth the category is fun to watch, and
(12:55):
Quinn Miners has turned into one of the best third
round picks of the last like five years, maybe one
of the best guards in the entire NFL. So you
never know, all right, let's go with boom or busts.
So it doesn't mean you're you're necessarily down on the player,
but you just don't know. And I do think offensive
linemen because they get drafted so high the last few years.
(13:17):
Like linemen, tackles especially just keep getting pushed up and
up and up, and some really do. It's got a
higher bust rate, I think than most positions. But a
player that you think has potential, but you're not sure
if it's going to work.
Speaker 2 (13:29):
Yeah, And I also think about there was a period
for about ten years where colleges were just having guys
slide protect him. They didn't learn the basic fundamentals that
you need it at the next level to really thrive,
especially quickly. And we know the pages in this league
is running thinner and thinner at multiple positions, not just quarterback.
Speaker 3 (13:42):
But we just talked about fit.
Speaker 2 (13:44):
Right, I'm going with tackle Kelvin Banks from Texas And
the reason is you said, well, is he, you know,
a gap scheme guy? Or is can he you know
thrive and zone? Everybody's a little bit of both. He's
listed at sixty five three fifteen, but he when you
watch him move because he's got so much of that
weight in his trunk and his lower body the posterior
chain as some people might refer to it, as he
(14:05):
looks a little slower and he's very stout. That's good
for him because he's very stout, but when he gets
out in space, you see the desire to get there.
It's just not as quick as some of the other guys,
and as a fan of those who are very good
at moving, it makes me a little bit concerned. He's
a force of an offensive lineman. He's very He moves
as if he's heavy, but it's not too slow. The
(14:26):
strike when he engages, and the upper body strength wins emphatically.
A bit of a lunder in the run game. I
think a lot of that is because he's not quite
there on time, but he's got great eyes to get
to the second level.
Speaker 3 (14:36):
He's just not super quick.
Speaker 2 (14:37):
So I actually had listed in my notes as a
man or a gap scheme guy as opposed to his
zone guy, and you have to do a little bit
of both, but it's fit. If you're a zone dependent team,
probably not going to get the best results out of him.
If you're something that's a little bit of both or
more of a gap scheme, then you're probably going to
have a better fit for him as well. So that's
why I say boom or bust. He's a guy that's
been mentioned among some of the top tackles, so we'll
(15:00):
see we'll see if teams have the same kind of
read on him and if they are willing to take
a risk if they're not quite the same fit or not.
Speaker 1 (15:06):
Yeah, fifteenth on the consensus board and then down to
twenty ninth in Jeremiah's board, which is that's a pretty
big gap. Actually, So a lot of people who I
trust seem to see him like you do, maybe like
Jeremiah does in terms of baking in that. They're just
they're just not sure that he's the type of guy
that gets drafted high. He could be a right tackle,
(15:26):
he could he could be a guard potentially, but a
little bit of a boomer bust guy. I get it.
But you know, back in the day, the very cliche
scouting term that would be in those Bob McGinn write ups,
which I still read them and yet they're increasingly problematic,
they would use the phrase like looks like Tarzan, plays
(15:47):
like Jane. That was the old that was like the
classic terrible.
Speaker 3 (15:50):
Scouting term oily hips bubblah.
Speaker 1 (15:54):
But yeah, let's just go with like, who's the best athlete.
I'm just curious, do you think these like there athlete
of guys that we haven't mentioned, they're just overall.
Speaker 2 (16:05):
Arman Membu crushed the combine. He put together a phenomenal
testing performance and a lot of the tape from Missouri, Yes,
from Missouri. The tackle fits what you saw in the testing.
He's really light on his feet. And the good thing
that I really enjoyed about him is he improved over time.
Like you could see a little bit earlier in his
career at Missouri, he's playing right tackle, he ends up
moving to left tackle. It looks like he's more comfortable
(16:27):
at left tackle, and you can tell that he just
got better year by year. He became more consistent. He
keeps a really good base when he moves Laterly, he's
another guy who's addicted to finishing blocks, but he'll take
it almost past the whistles. Sometimes he does not bite
in his past sets. He's willing to mirror, let you
come to him and then deal with his violence. And
like I said, he had a great combine. He's got
(16:47):
experience on both sides of the line, and as somebody
who improved from year to year in college, that makes
me very excited given his physical gifts, what he can
do at the next level in the NFL. So I
think he's one of those first two tackles coming off
of the board, and somebody that you're gonna watch him
walk on the field. He's gonna be off the bus winner,
but he's also gonna be on the field winner.
Speaker 1 (17:05):
It's funny how consensus forms, because before I had on
Nate Tice yesterday, I went back and I listened actually
to like an early show we did before the Senior
bol was a first show I did talking about the draft,
and back then Membu was there and he was viewed
as like a late first round type of guy. Ooh,
could he be the second tackle off the board? And
(17:27):
then fast forward six weeks and he's seventh on the
consensus board overall, the number one offensive lineman, just barely
ahead of Will Campbell, so they're right there. He's second
among offensive linemen. On DJ's big board, he's eleventh overall.
And so through the process and might just be talking
to how NFL teams see them, people have realized, like, oh,
(17:50):
this guy is a great prospect. Maybe in previous classes
he wouldn't be quite as high because there's been better
tackle classes at the very top, but in the end,
he's the most athletic guy in this class and so
it's kind of like quarterback. Even if he was maybe
a prospect in some years that he'd be around twenty eighteen,
it's like he's gonna get pushed up because he plays
a position. He's also very young. He's twenty one years older.
(18:13):
He's just turning twenty one. So as a prospect, he's young.
I really think he could go to the Jets at
seven because they really need to know his bookends, Like, yeah,
they really need to right tackle. It's one of the
only like screaming needs on their team. And then suddenly
they have a really nice offensive line. You build them
like the Lions built their offensive line. Yeah, back when
(18:35):
Aaron Glenn was there. All right, let's do one more category.
Let's do a shooky hidden gem.
Speaker 2 (18:42):
Okay, So this is a guy who first landed on
my radar at the combine because of the way he moved.
Like I said, I'm gonna sound like a broken record.
Love guys who move well. There are just certain years
whether that at the top of the class, so they
end up in the second or third round where you
just watch them on the field, you're like, that guy's different.
Cam Jurgens was one of them. A few years ago,
Tristan Wurfs. I like Bartolini, who is, you know, kind
(19:03):
of rising up into prominence now as well. Usually they're
interior guys that show off a little bit more swiftness.
And again we're gonna go with a guard. We're gonna
go with Joshua Gray from Oregon State. This is a
guy who is so much not on people's radars that, like,
if you go quickly YouTube search for a second, like
just to find some quick cutups or whatever, his name
doesn't pop up. There's nothing out there. But I'm telling
you right now that when you dive deeper into it,
(19:24):
he just he shows it.
Speaker 3 (19:25):
He shows it on the tape.
Speaker 2 (19:27):
He had his school record fifty six career starts at
Oregon State. And the reason I like him is because
he's got the athleticism and power, and yet he's malleable.
Like you have the baseline athleticism to be able to
get out in space and move, you have demonstrated power
like Lance's right above him.
Speaker 3 (19:44):
Was tough, strong, reliable.
Speaker 2 (19:46):
Those are all qualities that I want in an offensive lineman,
especially in a guard.
Speaker 3 (19:50):
And he's versatile.
Speaker 2 (19:51):
He mostly played tackle in college, but he has the
athleticism with rivid gardb where he also ended up playing
at Oregon State. So if strength is considered one of
his ranks and he can move, I love the projection
for you, the upside for you given that you land
with the right team that doesn't ask you to do
too much.
Speaker 3 (20:07):
So won't be a first round pick, but is going
to be.
Speaker 2 (20:10):
A guy that I'm gonna pay a lot of attention
to you because I think his upside is very much
being slept on right now.
Speaker 1 (20:15):
Consensus board one fifty three, YEP for Joshua Gray. All right, Shook,
he's playing his flag. We're gonna We're gonna be tracking
now Joshua Gray's career extremely closely, and Shook's name is
now going to be attached to it, and I bet
he's out. He's gonna outdo his draft profile in terms
(20:36):
of one fifty three. Maybe NFL teams will agree with
you though, and he'll he'll go hire a couple just
interesting names I did want to throw out before we
take a break and then talk some over unders. Josh
Simmons is an interesting prospect from Ohio State. Twenty fifth
on the consensus board, thirty fifth on Jeremiah's board. He
tore his ptel attendant. He was the left tackle at
(20:58):
Ohio State before that. In Donovan Jackson, I believe actually
moved out to left tackle and was okay there. But
he's going to be a guard. I might as well
mention them together here, since you're an Ohio State guy.
He's around thirty eight to thirty nine on the Contenus board.
Wouldn't be surprised if a team like the Patriots one
of those teams at the top of the second round
that needs offensive lineman. He just looks like a good
run blocker, he as versatility. He's going to be a guard.
(21:20):
Donovan Jackson solid, whereas Simmons might have been a top
ten pick in this draft if it wasn't for the injury.
There's also some motivation slash, you know, character concerns being
whispered about him, which which you never want to hear.
But that's it's probably attached to him as much as
just about anyone in this class. And so I'm just curious,
you're an Ohio State guy. Someone's going to take a
(21:42):
chance on him at some point, probably in the first round,
maybe even earlier than people think because of the position.
But he's got the injury, how do you like equate
all that? Where would he be? You think, by the way,
if he wasn't hurt.
Speaker 2 (21:52):
He would be where he was prior. And I think that,
which is why it's top fifteen. You had him in
the top fifteen right on the big boards.
Speaker 1 (22:00):
Right.
Speaker 2 (22:01):
So analyzing this the entire story of the twenty twenty
four Ohio State team, a lot of people overlook the
changes that they had at offensive line. They had injuries
from like the midpoint of the season onward.
Speaker 3 (22:10):
It was on the interior.
Speaker 2 (22:11):
It was a tackle and they just had to shuffle
guys around and keep shuffling around. That's why Donovan Jackson
actually he improved. His first game in tackle was not good,
but by the end of their run, he was playing
pretty well because they were just rolling with the punches.
Speaker 3 (22:22):
And I think that so when.
Speaker 2 (22:23):
You when you analyze a guy like Simmons, you have
a smaller sample size from the most recent tape and
it kind of complicates the picture for you. And you
also have to question how does he come back from
that injury, because that's no small injury. I think about
Senator Charles bentleyh tore both of his teller attendants in
the first day of training camp with the Browns that
essentially ended his career. So offensive line, the knees are important.
That's why they were knee braces. See, there's a little
(22:43):
bit of concern there, but overall, I think a lot
of the tape doesn't lie. You just have to wonder
whether he's going to come back at that same strength,
and hopefully, if you're a team taking him, you're not
taking him with immediate expectation. You give him a longer
runway to kind of acclimate.
Speaker 1 (22:56):
Yeah, and he's he's kind of the ultimate who or
bust two just because of the injury and maybe because
of the off field stuff, but definitely talented there. I
think we hit really the tackles that are probably going
in the top fifty. Another couple of interior guys, grays Abels.
If people want to go back and listen to the
Scout scouting combine one, we did you really liked him there.
(23:17):
He's twenty fourth on DJ's big board. Very athletic. Can
kind of follow the model of a few good recent
centers where he played tackle in college, but I think
the league kind of sees him as its center. I
love a guy that's that that versatile. So he's another
interesting one that might go off in the first round.
And he's from North Dakota State. You got to love it.
Speaker 2 (23:39):
The program is important because oftentimes you take your best
lineman and put him at left tackle when you're playing,
especial at the FCS level. But yeah, I think he
projects to be a solid center.
Speaker 1 (23:47):
Yeah, and some good recent rookie centers. Why am I
blanking Zach Frasier obviously, and then Graham Barton, who a
similar profile guy who played all over the place in college,
but then they moved him to center with the Bucks.
All right, that's our offensive line preview. We're gonna be
going through the positions as we get closer and closer
to the draft. I always thank Shook for his expertise there,
but I'm not letting him off the hook. He is
(24:09):
going to be back after the break. We're just gonna
look at over unders for the first time. I guess
I have a sickness, and I can't really quench that
sickness because I work for the NFL. So what I'm
gonna do is just talk about these over unders. I
find him interesting. Right after this, back on NFL Daily
(24:32):
and yeah, when I said before the break, I had
a sickness. What I mean is I find this stuff
interesting even though we're not allowed to act on it.
I'm thankful for that. It saved me a lot of
stress over the years. But when you see the over
unders for the year, it's one of my favorite shows
we do before every season is we do a draft
(24:53):
of what are our favorite over unders and that might
be one of my favorite shows of the year because
I'm undefeated three years running, and to keep bringing that up,
it's the it's maybe the greatest current streak in sports
where I haven't had one wrong in three years. And
last year it was outrageous because I made a long
list and the long list over unders were a maze.
We're only picking three or four. I think it's a
total of eleven and zero shook, but it's four for
(25:15):
I'm eleven. For eleven, I'm eleven.
Speaker 2 (25:16):
No, I'm not saying every what is that ninety six?
Over and over and that's like, that's like for.
Speaker 1 (25:23):
Eleven's pretty good. Eleven for eleven is pretty good. So
I will say this.
Speaker 2 (25:26):
I gotta say this though, on my other podcast, Gridiron Podcast,
which you can find on YouTube dot com slash at
Gridiron Pod. We do a division by division season preview
during training camp, and we always do over unders as well.
And now you're gonna make me go back and tally
whether me and my co hosts were correct how close
we were on those.
Speaker 1 (25:44):
We might have to do that this year because I
like having to take on almost all of them and
last year was particularly good. Okay, so they came out.
I first heard this on Bill Simmons' podcast. I had
no idea that that over unders would come out so
early before the draft. It seems crazy. And the reason
I and it interesting for myself is not the gambling
aspect of it, more just what is consensus going to
(26:08):
be heading into this season? We're starting to now I
hadn't really thought about it yet, like what are the
season previews going to be?
Speaker 2 (26:14):
Like?
Speaker 1 (26:15):
What does Vegas think fans will see as like the
the most common wisdom and view of these teams? And
so we're gonna do this a few different ways. You
have categories. I have one category, and my category is
it's going to be things that make me go hum.
And the first thing that made me go hum was
looking at the AFC East and if you look at
(26:37):
the AFC East, the Jets have a projected wind total
for a five and a half and the Patriots have
a projected win total now of eight and a half.
I think that's been bet up. I actually think it
was at seven and a half because I listened to
Simmons a few weeks ago and it was that set
it's up to eight and a half, and that to
(26:57):
me is insane. Why are the Pageots three wins better
than the Jets? So on, going in both directions, I
think that's a little bit crazy that the Patriots would
be up at eight and a half, same as the Dolphins,
and that the Jets, Like I don't think the Jets
roster is that bad. I don't think they got worse
at quarterback. And I know they only won five games
(27:19):
last year and so that's why it's there. But man,
them being three games apart just struck me, as huh,
that doesn't really make any sense?
Speaker 2 (27:25):
Yeah, and rightfully, so I started taking notes. In the
first all caps note I took was Patriots eight point
eight and a half with just question mark, exclamation mark,
just a line of them, because it seems insane. And
then at that point I realized I needed three categories.
I needed gettable, gonna be tough, and on what planet?
Speaker 3 (27:42):
And this lands?
Speaker 2 (27:42):
And on what planet are the Patriots listed at eight
and a half games for the over under?
Speaker 3 (27:48):
And it all comes back to what you've been hawking
about for.
Speaker 2 (27:50):
Months, Greg, which is quarterback Drake May and the fact
that they had an offseason to inject some talent on
both sides of the ball, support him better on the
offensive line, put some you know pieces around him. He's
got Stafon Diggs there now coming back from the ACL
and people are setting their expectations high because Mike Rable's
got that magic touch. He did it in Tennessee and
they think he's gonna do it in New England. But
(28:11):
do I buy in instantly?
Speaker 1 (28:13):
No?
Speaker 3 (28:14):
I need that proven to me.
Speaker 2 (28:15):
So again, on what planet are they gonna win over
eight and a half games?
Speaker 1 (28:20):
Okay? Schedule is a huge part of it, and we're
gonna get deeper into this when we get closer to
the season, So I don't want to go too crazy today.
These are just first impressions. Schedule is a huge part
of it, and they do have the NFC South on
the schedule, and so that's going to help out the
whole AFCs. The ACAST also has each other. Like the
Dolphins and the Jets aren't amazing opponents. It's not the
(28:40):
worst division of play agains and then they play the
AFC North, which is not as easy. But that just
seems weird to me. The Patriots have won eight games
combined over the last two years. That's just just a
big bump. But uh, you know, what are you thinking?
I think Jets over five and a half? That would
be like, what are you thinking? For me? I think
that get better than that. Along those lines, I'm going
(29:01):
to go I'm going to try to guess like who
was in your categories and maybe you were thinking it
of just like can you get to that win total?
Because this is this is more a win total. That
seems very low to me. The Vikings eight and a
half seems crazy to me. That's so low. Are they
really think that the public is going to be that
low on the Minnesota Vikings. They got the same over
(29:23):
under win total as the Bears, and I don't hate
the Bears, but the Bears are at eight and a half,
They're suddenly the same as the Vikings. I don't care.
Speaker 2 (29:30):
I'd like to introduce you to remember number two of
on what Planet the Vikings at eight and a half.
This is a big projection on the quarterback play not
being there. And look, I understand there was some fraudulents
with this Vikings team a few years ago when they
ended up losing to Daniel Jones in the playoffs, and
then you know they tail spin at the end of
last year, but that was a product of playing a
good defense and a defensive Sam Darnold couldn't you know,
(29:53):
you know, sort out. And yeah, it is a big
swing to just think that a team's gonna win nine
or ten games with a second year quarterback who's essentially
a rookie and JJ McCarthy. But at the same time,
this team got better in the offseason. They won a
ton of games last year before they got these additions.
On what planet do they not win nine games this year?
I'm sorry, I just have a hard time believing.
Speaker 1 (30:13):
That these two teams were nine games apart. Last year.
The Vikings won fourteen, the Bears won five. Now, the
schedule for the NFC North is very difficult for everyone
because they're playing against each other, and the out of
division schedule is difficult so that's that's going to depress
all the numbers. But man, I'm not ready. I don't
(30:35):
want to be making predictions that this is not what
this show is about. It's just numbers that really stuck
out to me, because ultimately, I don't think the quarterback
play for the Vikings is going to be that high
of a bar overall to reach the in the ecosystem
that they have and the rest of the team is
really really good. All right, give me on what planet?
(30:57):
Give me another one of your on what planets?
Speaker 2 (30:59):
Last of three on what Planet members is the Niners
at ten and a half. And yes, look, I understand
they were beaten up by injuries severely last year. They've
also had an off season in which you don't feel
better about the state of the roster than you did
a year prior. It's a bit of a transition time
for them. They also have the brock Party contract thing
going on, you know, swirling around them, and for a
(31:22):
bit there we had the Brandon Ayuk thing. So like,
there's some uncertainty with this club right now just overall
to project them at such a high line, I mean
ten and a half's pretty high. It's one of the
higher ones that you're going to see from any team
in the NFL. I understand that they have continuity, and
they've done it before, and they tend to be like
a rollercoaster from year to year, especially when injuries get involved.
But that's just a really high bar to set for
a team that fell short of expectations, obviously with the
(31:44):
injuries being a big part, and then coming back from
an off season in which you know they had some
pieces leave.
Speaker 1 (31:49):
Yeah, I think the ten and a half is a
little crazy, but it's even more crazy that the Rams
don't have it. So for some context, the NFC West
plays both South divisions. They drew the best draw of
any division in the NFL this year, so they get
the NFC South and the AFC South. I think that's
(32:11):
the ideal out of division schedule, so that helps push
up all these teams, And in fact, the entire NFC
West is eight and a half or over. The Cardinals
and the Seahawks are both at eight and a half
and the Rams are at nine and a half. If
you had just knocked the forty nine ers down one
or flipped them in the Rams, then then I get it.
(32:31):
There's kind of a begging here of Vegas almost to
pick against the forty nine ers, when I'm sure the
systems like that. Cynthia has look at the talent on
the team, look at the previous success, and project that
out forward that actually they're not going to collapse as
much as teams think, and I can understand that. It
just is really weird to me that they would be
(32:53):
behind the Rams. And yeah, not every team is going
to be over five hundred in the division, So either
the Seahawks or the car are going to be coming
up short, or maybe the Rams and or the forty
nine ers as well. Okay, so those were your crazy ones.
Those were the ones to me that also stood out
the most. Basically the Jets, the Vikings, and then the
(33:13):
Rams forty nine ers split just other ones I just
found interesting. The Bucks are at nine and a half.
I like the Bucks. They have the AFC East and
the NFC West out of division, which is not the
toughest slate I don't think, and they have, you know,
of course, six games in the division. They're favored to
win the division by two games. The Falcons are next
(33:35):
at seven and a half, Carolina six and a half,
Saints at six and a half. That's when I can
give a preview. I'm definitely gonna be over on the Bucks.
Speaker 2 (33:43):
Now.
Speaker 1 (33:43):
Is that going to be one of my top three
or four in the NFL? I don't really know, but
with that schedule and that division, to me, that's just
one that I look at right away.
Speaker 2 (33:55):
I actually felt like that was probably a game too high.
And the reason is not that I don't have confidence
in this team, because I do. We've seen that they
became an offensive team last year. Baker Mayfield played his
best football his career in the last two years with them.
They have two talented receivers, and Mike Evans and Chris
Godwin and Jayleen McMillan really stepped up in Godwin's absence
last year, and Bucky Irving had a great rookie year.
But if you look at them over the last three years,
(34:17):
they've won ten games, nine games and eight games, right, Yeah,
that's my division each of those three years. But none
of them were easy and oftentimes they were the best
team in that division, and yet it was still difficult.
So setting it that high, I'd feel more comfortable in
terms of like realistic expectation at eight and a half
than nine and a half, which is why I just
kind of raised an eyebrow at that one.
Speaker 1 (34:39):
Yeah, that one is That's why I wasn't in my
top section. The top section are ones where the number
itself seems crazy to me. This number doesn't seem crazy,
but I'm high on the Bucks as a team that
I believes is now at a certain point in their
cycle of team building, that they're ready to go, and
that they're going to be a really good team this year.
Other ones that stuck out to me the Steelers eight
(35:00):
and a half, which is like the classic we don't
know what to do with this team number, which is
eight and a half. The Chargers still, you know, get
in a lot of love, along with the Broncos at
nine and a half, both of those teams, and then
overall no teams are above eleven and a half, which
is interesting. Usually there's two three four teams at twelve
and a half, So that's a little crazy, and it's
partly because a the good teams all play each other
(35:22):
because of the first place schedules, and that even can
affect that extra game, that seventeenth game, and then b
like the divisional schedules this year, I think the better
teams are all with tough in division games and out
of division games, they're just happen to be playing each other.
But of all those teams that aren't going above eleven
and a half, to me, the Chiefs not getting more
(35:44):
than eleven and a half is the is the craziest
because they're the team of them that out of division
they have the AFC South in the NFC East that's
not too tough, and then in the division you know
it's a good division, but you still have the Raiders there.
It's not like the best division in the world. Out
of division, it's it's a pretty nice schedule. So the
Chiefs always always disrespected at eleven and a half. I
(36:06):
if you you bet the over for them every year,
you'd be a rich man.
Speaker 2 (36:09):
Yeah, this is a franchisees fan base doesn't need any
more reason to think that they they're being disrespected. Let's
put that out there first and foremost. But I also
understand why it's eleven and a half. I would understand
if it was twelve and a half given their history
of success, great success like historic would have been if
they'd won the Super Bowl, and it still is historic.
I think this speaks to the fact that we are
before the draft and that there are still some concerns.
(36:30):
You know, at least what they've done on offensive line,
and it makes sense to me that they would drop
down a game from where you might feel more pleased
with it. But yeah, sure, a little bit of disrespect.
We still have the whole draft to go through.
Speaker 1 (36:42):
I get it. Just here are the win totals since
twenty eighteen, twelve, twelve, fourteen, twelve, fourteen, eleven and fifteen,
and even the eleven got there over that year. I
remember it was ten and a half because.
Speaker 3 (36:55):
I it's sportant, though twelve is sportant, right.
Speaker 1 (36:58):
But again, Chiefs, they're not You're not being disrespected because
you literally are tied for the best record in the
NFL according to everybody speakers right now. Bill's are only
out eleven and a half. The Eagles were only at
eleven and a half, the Lions were only at ten
and a half. That's an interesting one to me. I
think I would I would lean towards the over with
the Lions, but it is a very difficult schedule. It's early.
(37:21):
I just just some first thoughts. I got more in
this space to come you got one more.
Speaker 2 (37:25):
One more in the gonna be tough category. Bears eight
and a half, just because it's projection Ben Johnson high
hopes for him, high hopes for what the Bears can be.
They got their quarterback, everything's cool. It's a lot of
projection to expect them to win nine or more games
off the bat without.
Speaker 3 (37:43):
Again, I'm a cynic. I'm a skeptic. Tough schedule too, Yeah,
prove it to me in a tough division. But eight
and a half, I thought that was a little high.
Speaker 1 (37:51):
I agree with you. I've gone under on the Bears
three straight years as one of my top three to
four picks, and every time it's it's been right there.
I don't think I will just because I want. I
do want to believe in a world where Kleb and
Ben Johnson just make beautiful music together and I see
the vision. I get it. I do think they'll be better.
The schedule is going to be very tough, though, so
I do think it's going to be. It's gonna be
(38:12):
a challenge in that division, never a challenge when we
have you should appreciate you man offensive line, like some
people would look at that as like I'm giving you,
you know, the the dregs of the draft prospects, but
that you look at it like this is this is
the beautiful time you ever see.
Speaker 2 (38:29):
Me on that last daily combine. Folks, It's been a
grind of a week and I couldn't be happier and
more e stacked and walked than to walk into Lucas
Oil Stadium on that day specifically and sit there for
seven hours watching big guys in tights run around.
Speaker 1 (38:41):
I'm looking forward to that. I already am now. I'm
looking forward to the annual show that we will do
with Nick Chuk after the combine. It was fun this
year hearing your all combined team. That's it for today.
Hit the music there, Eric. We will be back in
this feed on Thursday. You know you love him, Dan,
Jeremiah forties and free agents will be talking more big
(39:03):
picture draft. I'm excited about this one. And yeah, like
when we're going deep on Tyler Booker and Gray Zabel
and Josh Connery, you know football is back.
Welcome to NFL Daily, where the big uglies are beautiful
to us. I'm Greg Rosenthal here with Nick Shook, continuing
our look ahead to the NFL Draft. It's been a
big week. We did the quarterbacks little mock draft, and
now we're going to take a look at Nick Shook's
favorite type of players, the offensive lineman, just like he
(00:26):
was back in the day.
Speaker 2 (00:28):
Oh yeah, back in the day when I was a
little bit wider around. And yeah, I mean, I don't
know how you're still doing all this draft content where
you have forties and free agents and now you're over
here talking.
Speaker 3 (00:39):
I mean, you're just pumping it out.
Speaker 1 (00:41):
No, this is a week where it felt like we've
been talking about Okay, we're gonna like slowly keep getting
more and more draft content, and then you know, with
two weeks left until the draft, where we're at now, Okay,
now we're just going daily draft content. And look, the
offensive line not the sexiest position on draft. Teams, like
fans are always a little disappointed. Oh we drafted a guard,
(01:03):
Oh we drafted a tackle. And then at the end
of the season everyone's like, how come our offensive line
isn't great? Like, how come the Eagles are winning the
Super Bowl year after year, so we got to do it,
and we're gonna make it fun by giving you a
bunch of different categories, taking like kind of the big
picture view of it. This is believed to be quite
a deep class, especially at interior offensive linemen, and the
(01:25):
tackle class is solid. But like a lot of this
draft class, it's kind of pick you know, it's dealer's
choice where the very top of the class maybe isn't
as good as other years, but it's very deep and solid,
you know, picks ten through seventy. So I'm going to
just give you some categories. We'll try to hit all
the relevant first couple of round guys as we go,
and if we don't, I'll circle back and mention a couple.
(01:48):
But you're the offensive line guy, I want you to
start off with the category what we're gonna call like
the ultimate Shook player. Who is the player from this
class on the O line that's like the ultimate ship guy.
Speaker 2 (02:00):
Yeah, we're years removed from me doing behind the offensive
line on NFL dot Com, but make no mistake, I
still am very fond of all these guys, and one
of the guys that I'm fondest of is Oregon tackle
Josh Connerly, who I loved his workout. I loved a
lot of his tape at Oregon and what I see
because the first thing I love in offensive lineman when
I watched them India, when I watch them on tape,
(02:22):
can they move? Can they get out in space? Can
they you know, win the battle of angles in the
to gain the leverage necessary to wall off a guy
or block them. Not necessarily the road graders necessary, or
the guys that are, you know, just so physically powerful
that they're overwhelmingly impressive, but guys that can get in
the right space, because in football it's all about winning
(02:42):
at the point of attack and getting there first and
creating those lanes for running backs. And I think that
Connorly is this guy. He is this guy who's got
a developmental side to him where he has the footwork,
he has the athleticism, he moved swiftly through his drills
in the combine.
Speaker 3 (02:56):
The tape backs it.
Speaker 2 (02:57):
Up, and it almost feels like he's a guy who
is going to put on strength at the next level
and become a complete tackle. There's a reason why you
talk about Joe Thomas talked about this all the time
basketball players at tackle. You want the athletes out there.
Lane Johnson is a great example of that. Do you
have the frame and the athleticism, you put the weight on,
they still have that body control. They become perennial All
(03:18):
pros and future Hall of famers. Not saying that Connor
is going to be that guy, but he is the
blend of athleticism, of fundamentals and technique, and you add
a little bit of strength and stoutness to him, and
I think he's going to be good at the next level.
And I'm a big fan of him and excited to
see where he goes.
Speaker 1 (03:32):
I love that you're planting your flag on Josh Connerly.
So he is thirty sixth in the consensus board, which
is something that just if you want to check out
that website, it just averages all the big boards all
over the place. He's thirty eighth on Daniel Jeremiah's board.
But he stands out to me in a way because
I listened to a great episode of Nate Tyson's podcast
(03:53):
Football three oh one, and he had his dad on
Mike Tice, who is an offensive line coach forever in
the NFL, and I love the way he sees the position.
And it was just hilarious to see if father son
and he had Connorly as ol one by the way
in the class. Yes, so higher than Will Campbell, higher
than armand Membo like he had him. He was a
(04:14):
running back way back in the day. Connorly so even
if he's not like an amazing athlete on player here,
like he knows how to play. He played well against
Abdul Carter, and I like that you're seeing it a
little differently. I'm it's gonna be real. I'm having you
be the expert today because I'm gonna read a lot
and I'm gonna listen to a lot and see a
lot with the offensive lineman. But I'm not going to
pretend that I'm like grinding left tackle tape. We're trying
(04:37):
to give our listeners, like a good idea of the
guys that they'll be taking in the draft. Let's do
it with another category. Let's go most likely to be
an All pro first. So in theory, this is a
sneaky way of me asking, like who would be the
best guy in this class at any position? Not who
(04:57):
gets drafted the highest, but who is the most likely
to be an All Pro player first.
Speaker 2 (05:02):
This is where teams swing and miss a lot, is
that they go for the measurables. They go for Granity
had a good year at guard this year, but they
go for the Makai Bectons because they test well and
they're just massive human beings. But oftentimes the fit isn't right,
or maybe the type of player isn't right. They fall
in love with the fact that he's massive and he's
a freak athlete, but maybe he's not the best offensive lineman.
I'm gonna go with a little bit of a catch
(05:23):
on this one because this is a guy who's been
talked about a lot, positively and negatively. It's Will Campbell
to tackle from LSU, and I'm saying he's most likely
to be an All Pro first at guard. Okay, and yeah,
this has been the debate with him. The length issue.
Oftentimes it's like hand size. Maybe you don't see it,
(05:43):
maybe it's overblown. I see it with him. I see
it in his tape. But he has tremendous feet. He
is very experienced from his time at lsuh restarted as
a freshman, but he lacks that length that you need
to win against guys like Miles Garrett, against those powerful
long edge rushers that can have incredible bend and can
simply use their length to create the separation where you
(06:03):
never get your hands on him. If you're lacking that
as a tackle, and it kind of shows in his tape,
that's going to be an issue for you at the
next level. But I think he has the rest of
the tools in his toolbox to be a fantastic guard,
could be an All Pro guard. I don't know if
he ends up with a team that moves him to that.
I think that's his long term future, just because I'm
going for higher ceiling, and his higher ceiling is as
a guard than it is as a tackle, solid tackle,
(06:26):
All Pro guard.
Speaker 3 (06:27):
That's why he's my pick.
Speaker 1 (06:28):
Yeah, and also this is a class where there's not
a lot of like projected All pros, and he's eighth
on the consensus board, and that's eighth player overall, not
eighth at the position ninth on Jeremiah's big board, so
they're in the same spot there. Yeah, there's a lot
of talk about his arm length, and you think about
some of the great guards recently, Quentin Nelson, he did
(06:49):
play a little left tackle, but ultimately he was a guard.
Zach Martin played a little left tackle, played well, Ultimately
he was a guy. Tyler Smith who's playing really well
for the Cowboys, played some tackle, and all these guys
can do it, but it can be even better. And
when he listened to Campbell in terms of the makeup
the reps, I mean, this guy has just played a
(07:10):
ton of big time football. There's a lot to like.
And the thing that gets me the most about him
in terms of guard, tackle, all this stuff, because a
lot of these guys could be guards or tackles. Look
at what the guards are making right now in the NFL,
Like Aaron Banks, a pretty generic guard from the forty
nine ers, just got seventy seven million over four years.
So I'm listening to what Jeremiah has said on our
(07:33):
show Forties and free Agents, and like this is the draft.
Maybe throw away the positional value thing, because like, just
pick who you think is going to be a good player,
don't worry if it's guard or tackle. And guards are
basically making money that cornerbacks are making like number one cornerbacks,
Like they're making a little less than tackles, but they're
still making a ton of.
Speaker 2 (07:51):
Money, and I think about what does he win with that?
Will Campbell specifically, he wins with his feet because he
doesn't have that length. He wins with his feet in
his positioning, and I think that can translate phenomenally well
at guard. Let's think about the NFC Divisional round in
which the Eagles play the Rams and they're getting beat
by stunts in the entire second half by Vig Fangio's defense. Right,
(08:11):
he's a guy who has the feat to be able
to adjust to that, to be able to become a
brick wall that you can count on in those situations.
Win with angles, win with leverage. I don't care if
he's that if he's not that long, when you're playing guard,
and then you also have the ability to get to
second level and really explode, you know, open up that
run game. I just think it's going to be a
higher ceiling for him, and again, best player, like you're
gonna build out your best five. I don't care if
(08:34):
he's playing left tackle right, you know, it's the blind
side protection and everything else.
Speaker 3 (08:37):
I don't care.
Speaker 2 (08:37):
I want the best offensive lineman in the best spot,
and I think that's his best fit.
Speaker 1 (08:41):
Think about how the Eagles won all those games. I
mean the Packers, they made them look so bad in
terms of their interior offensive line. Yeah, the Commanders, they
I mean, they dominate that game in a number of ways,
but that was one of them. In the Chiefs as well,
like really every game they played, the guard position on
the opposite team was a major problem. All right, let's
go to a different care Let's talk interior alignment. So
(09:02):
this is where it really gets into the nitty gritty shook.
Were you a tackle or guard? You're probably a tackle.
Speaker 2 (09:07):
I was a guard in high school because I played
next to a six seven like d one recruit, and
then college smaller school was a tackle.
Speaker 1 (09:15):
Okay, yeah, you seem like more of like a dancing
bear athletic type of guy. But you know, break breaking
down the interior offensive line tape. Look when they're like
running on the sweeps and stuff, that's fun and the
center getting out and pulling like that's fun. But ultimately,
I think for the average fan, they're not just grinding
that tape and thinking this is fun to watch. Guards.
Give me an interior alignment that is fun to watch.
Speaker 2 (09:37):
Oh, that means they wouldn't enjoy my last day at
the combine every year when you're watching guys with long poles,
just getting excited about foot quickness. My favorite interior offensive
lineman to watch on tape. This is a throwback, This
is a classic. This is the highlights that you're going
to see on your social media platforms. Because he's a bruiser,
he's a maller. His name is Tyler Booker from Alabama.
And I was listening to forties and free Agents and
listening to DJ talk about how he had slid in
(09:59):
his mock draft because he didn't have a good combine,
but he got some of that back at the pro day,
and I think that you can bind those two results
with the tape. Big fan of him, but why I
love him the most? Oh my god, Greg. If you
like pancakes and you like guys who are like Velcrow
with their hands, when they latch on and engage, they
don't let go, Tyler Booker is your guy. He is
(10:19):
consistently knocking guys off balance or planting them into the ground.
He engages and does not let go. Once his hands
are on you, you're cooked. You're gonna be with him for
the rest of the players and just hold on for
the ride. Guess is getting launched by him, Like I'm
just laughing watching his tape because he just gets in there.
Sometimes he'll finish guys off on double teams just for
the fun of it. It looks like there's one clipping
(10:39):
in particular I saw where he's in pass pro and
it's like a three man brush and there's a guy
kind of just floating, you know, maybe playing a little
bit of quarterback spy on Jaylen Noilro and at the
last second, he just steps up and launches him to
the ground. Like I'm just This guy is so much
fun to watch. He's extremely stout in pass protection. He's
got good eyes out in space, especially when he moves
to the second level. When you get into him impact pro,
(11:00):
it becomes a stalemate, which is what you want, especially
on those longer dropbacks, that they're not gaining depth, that
you're holding that wall and all I advise to guys
who play against him, don't get caught on his train
tracks because you're gonna get run over. He's got great engagement,
great drive, great power, and those hands are really strong.
He wins hand fights all the time. There was another
clip where they're playing Vanderbilt, and he knocks the guy's
(11:21):
hands down. The guy just false face first in the ground.
My classic throwback, big interior offensive lineman who's out to
prove a point and finish every play with emphasis.
Speaker 3 (11:29):
It's Tyler Booker.
Speaker 1 (11:31):
Love that, and he is twenty seventh on the consensus board.
He is twenty third on DJ's board. And so he's
probably gonna get taken into a good situation by a
good team as a piece for a team that just
needs some improvement to get them further in the playoffs.
(11:51):
It could be it could be like the Chargers. It
could be I think the Lions planning for the future
if he fell all the way down to them. We're
going to talk about these teams. By the way, I
should have mentioned at the top uh in our over
under segment. The over unders have been out for a minute,
and we just have some things that make us say
hmm about those and just some categories, some thoughts to
wrap the show. But I love all that on on
(12:12):
Tyler Booker. He's a guy. You know, some people think
maybe he's going to be better in like a gap
power type of scheme. Right, I was gonna say more
than his own, But like, isn't every team both at
this point, I mean, every every team has to do
a little bit of a bath. I do worry about
this type of guy, although everyone really thinks he's a
very safe, solid prospect. I do worry about sometimes the
(12:33):
guy that you hear the first thing you hear about
him is he just likes to put the guys in
the dirt. I don't know. Sometimes those guys turn into
Trevor Penning and we'll see, we'll see, let's go, let's
go Boomer. But I don't know if you're just lead
with that like I need more. Then again, some of
those some of those guys turn into Quinn Miners, Who's
been very fun to watch, right, I was gonna say
who the truth the category is fun to watch, and
(12:55):
Quinn Miners has turned into one of the best third
round picks of the last like five years, maybe one
of the best guards in the entire NFL. So you
never know, all right, let's go with boom or busts.
So it doesn't mean you're you're necessarily down on the player,
but you just don't know. And I do think offensive
linemen because they get drafted so high the last few years.
(13:17):
Like linemen, tackles especially just keep getting pushed up and
up and up, and some really do. It's got a
higher bust rate, I think than most positions. But a
player that you think has potential, but you're not sure
if it's going to work.
Speaker 2 (13:29):
Yeah, And I also think about there was a period
for about ten years where colleges were just having guys
slide protect him. They didn't learn the basic fundamentals that
you need it at the next level to really thrive,
especially quickly. And we know the pages in this league
is running thinner and thinner at multiple positions, not just quarterback.
Speaker 3 (13:42):
But we just talked about fit.
Speaker 2 (13:44):
Right, I'm going with tackle Kelvin Banks from Texas And
the reason is you said, well, is he, you know,
a gap scheme guy? Or is can he you know
thrive and zone? Everybody's a little bit of both. He's
listed at sixty five three fifteen, but he when you
watch him move because he's got so much of that
weight in his trunk and his lower body the posterior
chain as some people might refer to it, as he
(14:05):
looks a little slower and he's very stout. That's good
for him because he's very stout, but when he gets
out in space, you see the desire to get there.
It's just not as quick as some of the other guys,
and as a fan of those who are very good
at moving, it makes me a little bit concerned. He's
a force of an offensive lineman. He's very He moves
as if he's heavy, but it's not too slow. The
(14:26):
strike when he engages, and the upper body strength wins emphatically.
A bit of a lunder in the run game. I
think a lot of that is because he's not quite
there on time, but he's got great eyes to get
to the second level.
Speaker 3 (14:36):
He's just not super quick.
Speaker 2 (14:37):
So I actually had listed in my notes as a
man or a gap scheme guy as opposed to his
zone guy, and you have to do a little bit
of both, but it's fit. If you're a zone dependent team,
probably not going to get the best results out of him.
If you're something that's a little bit of both or
more of a gap scheme, then you're probably going to
have a better fit for him as well. So that's
why I say boom or bust. He's a guy that's
been mentioned among some of the top tackles, so we'll
(15:00):
see we'll see if teams have the same kind of
read on him and if they are willing to take
a risk if they're not quite the same fit or not.
Speaker 1 (15:06):
Yeah, fifteenth on the consensus board and then down to
twenty ninth in Jeremiah's board, which is that's a pretty
big gap. Actually, So a lot of people who I
trust seem to see him like you do, maybe like
Jeremiah does in terms of baking in that. They're just
they're just not sure that he's the type of guy
that gets drafted high. He could be a right tackle,
(15:26):
he could he could be a guard potentially, but a
little bit of a boomer bust guy. I get it.
But you know, back in the day, the very cliche
scouting term that would be in those Bob McGinn write ups,
which I still read them and yet they're increasingly problematic,
they would use the phrase like looks like Tarzan, plays
(15:47):
like Jane. That was the old that was like the
classic terrible.
Speaker 3 (15:50):
Scouting term oily hips bubblah.
Speaker 1 (15:54):
But yeah, let's just go with like, who's the best athlete.
I'm just curious, do you think these like there athlete
of guys that we haven't mentioned, they're just overall.
Speaker 2 (16:05):
Arman Membu crushed the combine. He put together a phenomenal
testing performance and a lot of the tape from Missouri, Yes,
from Missouri. The tackle fits what you saw in the testing.
He's really light on his feet. And the good thing
that I really enjoyed about him is he improved over time.
Like you could see a little bit earlier in his
career at Missouri, he's playing right tackle, he ends up
moving to left tackle. It looks like he's more comfortable
(16:27):
at left tackle, and you can tell that he just
got better year by year. He became more consistent. He
keeps a really good base when he moves Laterly, he's
another guy who's addicted to finishing blocks, but he'll take
it almost past the whistles. Sometimes he does not bite
in his past sets. He's willing to mirror, let you
come to him and then deal with his violence. And
like I said, he had a great combine. He's got
(16:47):
experience on both sides of the line, and as somebody
who improved from year to year in college, that makes
me very excited given his physical gifts, what he can
do at the next level in the NFL. So I
think he's one of those first two tackles coming off
of the board, and somebody that you're gonna watch him
walk on the field. He's gonna be off the bus winner,
but he's also gonna be on the field winner.
Speaker 1 (17:05):
It's funny how consensus forms, because before I had on
Nate Tice yesterday, I went back and I listened actually
to like an early show we did before the Senior
bol was a first show I did talking about the draft,
and back then Membu was there and he was viewed
as like a late first round type of guy. Ooh,
could he be the second tackle off the board? And
(17:27):
then fast forward six weeks and he's seventh on the
consensus board overall, the number one offensive lineman, just barely
ahead of Will Campbell, so they're right there. He's second
among offensive linemen. On DJ's big board, he's eleventh overall.
And so through the process and might just be talking
to how NFL teams see them, people have realized, like, oh,
(17:50):
this guy is a great prospect. Maybe in previous classes
he wouldn't be quite as high because there's been better
tackle classes at the very top, but in the end,
he's the most athletic guy in this class and so
it's kind of like quarterback. Even if he was maybe
a prospect in some years that he'd be around twenty eighteen,
it's like he's gonna get pushed up because he plays
a position. He's also very young. He's twenty one years older.
(18:13):
He's just turning twenty one. So as a prospect, he's young.
I really think he could go to the Jets at
seven because they really need to know his bookends, Like, yeah,
they really need to right tackle. It's one of the
only like screaming needs on their team. And then suddenly
they have a really nice offensive line. You build them
like the Lions built their offensive line. Yeah, back when
(18:35):
Aaron Glenn was there. All right, let's do one more category.
Let's do a shooky hidden gem.
Speaker 2 (18:42):
Okay, So this is a guy who first landed on
my radar at the combine because of the way he moved.
Like I said, I'm gonna sound like a broken record.
Love guys who move well. There are just certain years
whether that at the top of the class, so they
end up in the second or third round where you
just watch them on the field, you're like, that guy's different.
Cam Jurgens was one of them. A few years ago,
Tristan Wurfs. I like Bartolini, who is, you know, kind
(19:03):
of rising up into prominence now as well. Usually they're
interior guys that show off a little bit more swiftness.
And again we're gonna go with a guard. We're gonna
go with Joshua Gray from Oregon State. This is a
guy who is so much not on people's radars that, like,
if you go quickly YouTube search for a second, like
just to find some quick cutups or whatever, his name
doesn't pop up. There's nothing out there. But I'm telling
you right now that when you dive deeper into it,
(19:24):
he just he shows it.
Speaker 3 (19:25):
He shows it on the tape.
Speaker 2 (19:27):
He had his school record fifty six career starts at
Oregon State. And the reason I like him is because
he's got the athleticism and power, and yet he's malleable.
Like you have the baseline athleticism to be able to
get out in space and move, you have demonstrated power
like Lance's right above him.
Speaker 3 (19:44):
Was tough, strong, reliable.
Speaker 2 (19:46):
Those are all qualities that I want in an offensive lineman,
especially in a guard.
Speaker 3 (19:50):
And he's versatile.
Speaker 2 (19:51):
He mostly played tackle in college, but he has the
athleticism with rivid gardb where he also ended up playing
at Oregon State. So if strength is considered one of
his ranks and he can move, I love the projection
for you, the upside for you given that you land
with the right team that doesn't ask you to do
too much.
Speaker 3 (20:07):
So won't be a first round pick, but is going
to be.
Speaker 2 (20:10):
A guy that I'm gonna pay a lot of attention
to you because I think his upside is very much
being slept on right now.
Speaker 1 (20:15):
Consensus board one fifty three, YEP for Joshua Gray. All right, Shook,
he's playing his flag. We're gonna We're gonna be tracking
now Joshua Gray's career extremely closely, and Shook's name is
now going to be attached to it, and I bet
he's out. He's gonna outdo his draft profile in terms
(20:36):
of one fifty three. Maybe NFL teams will agree with
you though, and he'll he'll go hire a couple just
interesting names I did want to throw out before we
take a break and then talk some over unders. Josh
Simmons is an interesting prospect from Ohio State. Twenty fifth
on the consensus board, thirty fifth on Jeremiah's board. He
tore his ptel attendant. He was the left tackle at
(20:58):
Ohio State before that. In Donovan Jackson, I believe actually
moved out to left tackle and was okay there. But
he's going to be a guard. I might as well
mention them together here, since you're an Ohio State guy.
He's around thirty eight to thirty nine on the Contenus board.
Wouldn't be surprised if a team like the Patriots one
of those teams at the top of the second round
that needs offensive lineman. He just looks like a good
run blocker, he as versatility. He's going to be a guard.
(21:20):
Donovan Jackson solid, whereas Simmons might have been a top
ten pick in this draft if it wasn't for the injury.
There's also some motivation slash, you know, character concerns being
whispered about him, which which you never want to hear.
But that's it's probably attached to him as much as
just about anyone in this class. And so I'm just curious,
you're an Ohio State guy. Someone's going to take a
(21:42):
chance on him at some point, probably in the first round,
maybe even earlier than people think because of the position.
But he's got the injury, how do you like equate
all that? Where would he be? You think, by the way,
if he wasn't hurt.
Speaker 2 (21:52):
He would be where he was prior. And I think that,
which is why it's top fifteen. You had him in
the top fifteen right on the big boards.
Speaker 1 (22:00):
Right.
Speaker 2 (22:01):
So analyzing this the entire story of the twenty twenty
four Ohio State team, a lot of people overlook the
changes that they had at offensive line. They had injuries
from like the midpoint of the season onward.
Speaker 3 (22:10):
It was on the interior.
Speaker 2 (22:11):
It was a tackle and they just had to shuffle
guys around and keep shuffling around. That's why Donovan Jackson
actually he improved. His first game in tackle was not good,
but by the end of their run, he was playing
pretty well because they were just rolling with the punches.
Speaker 3 (22:22):
And I think that so when.
Speaker 2 (22:23):
You when you analyze a guy like Simmons, you have
a smaller sample size from the most recent tape and
it kind of complicates the picture for you. And you
also have to question how does he come back from
that injury, because that's no small injury. I think about
Senator Charles bentleyh tore both of his teller attendants in
the first day of training camp with the Browns that
essentially ended his career. So offensive line, the knees are important.
That's why they were knee braces. See, there's a little
(22:43):
bit of concern there, but overall, I think a lot
of the tape doesn't lie. You just have to wonder
whether he's going to come back at that same strength,
and hopefully, if you're a team taking him, you're not
taking him with immediate expectation. You give him a longer
runway to kind of acclimate.
Speaker 1 (22:56):
Yeah, and he's he's kind of the ultimate who or
bust two just because of the injury and maybe because
of the off field stuff, but definitely talented there. I
think we hit really the tackles that are probably going
in the top fifty. Another couple of interior guys, grays Abels.
If people want to go back and listen to the
Scout scouting combine one, we did you really liked him there.
(23:17):
He's twenty fourth on DJ's big board. Very athletic. Can
kind of follow the model of a few good recent
centers where he played tackle in college, but I think
the league kind of sees him as its center. I
love a guy that's that that versatile. So he's another
interesting one that might go off in the first round.
And he's from North Dakota State. You got to love it.
Speaker 2 (23:39):
The program is important because oftentimes you take your best
lineman and put him at left tackle when you're playing,
especial at the FCS level. But yeah, I think he
projects to be a solid center.
Speaker 1 (23:47):
Yeah, and some good recent rookie centers. Why am I
blanking Zach Frasier obviously, and then Graham Barton, who a
similar profile guy who played all over the place in college,
but then they moved him to center with the Bucks.
All right, that's our offensive line preview. We're gonna be
going through the positions as we get closer and closer
to the draft. I always thank Shook for his expertise there,
but I'm not letting him off the hook. He is
(24:09):
going to be back after the break. We're just gonna
look at over unders for the first time. I guess
I have a sickness, and I can't really quench that
sickness because I work for the NFL. So what I'm
gonna do is just talk about these over unders. I
find him interesting. Right after this, back on NFL Daily
(24:32):
and yeah, when I said before the break, I had
a sickness. What I mean is I find this stuff
interesting even though we're not allowed to act on it.
I'm thankful for that. It saved me a lot of
stress over the years. But when you see the over
unders for the year, it's one of my favorite shows
we do before every season is we do a draft
(24:53):
of what are our favorite over unders and that might
be one of my favorite shows of the year because
I'm undefeated three years running, and to keep bringing that up,
it's the it's maybe the greatest current streak in sports
where I haven't had one wrong in three years. And
last year it was outrageous because I made a long
list and the long list over unders were a maze.
We're only picking three or four. I think it's a
total of eleven and zero shook, but it's four for
(25:15):
I'm eleven. For eleven, I'm eleven.
Speaker 2 (25:16):
No, I'm not saying every what is that ninety six?
Over and over and that's like, that's like for.
Speaker 1 (25:23):
Eleven's pretty good. Eleven for eleven is pretty good. So
I will say this.
Speaker 2 (25:26):
I gotta say this though, on my other podcast, Gridiron Podcast,
which you can find on YouTube dot com slash at
Gridiron Pod. We do a division by division season preview
during training camp, and we always do over unders as well.
And now you're gonna make me go back and tally
whether me and my co hosts were correct how close
we were on those.
Speaker 1 (25:44):
We might have to do that this year because I
like having to take on almost all of them and
last year was particularly good. Okay, so they came out.
I first heard this on Bill Simmons' podcast. I had
no idea that that over unders would come out so
early before the draft. It seems crazy. And the reason
I and it interesting for myself is not the gambling
aspect of it, more just what is consensus going to
(26:08):
be heading into this season? We're starting to now I
hadn't really thought about it yet, like what are the
season previews going to be?
Speaker 2 (26:14):
Like?
Speaker 1 (26:15):
What does Vegas think fans will see as like the
the most common wisdom and view of these teams? And
so we're gonna do this a few different ways. You
have categories. I have one category, and my category is
it's going to be things that make me go hum.
And the first thing that made me go hum was
looking at the AFC East and if you look at
(26:37):
the AFC East, the Jets have a projected wind total
for a five and a half and the Patriots have
a projected win total now of eight and a half.
I think that's been bet up. I actually think it
was at seven and a half because I listened to
Simmons a few weeks ago and it was that set
it's up to eight and a half, and that to
(26:57):
me is insane. Why are the Pageots three wins better
than the Jets? So on, going in both directions, I
think that's a little bit crazy that the Patriots would
be up at eight and a half, same as the Dolphins,
and that the Jets, Like I don't think the Jets
roster is that bad. I don't think they got worse
at quarterback. And I know they only won five games
(27:19):
last year and so that's why it's there. But man,
them being three games apart just struck me, as huh,
that doesn't really make any sense?
Speaker 2 (27:25):
Yeah, and rightfully, so I started taking notes. In the
first all caps note I took was Patriots eight point
eight and a half with just question mark, exclamation mark,
just a line of them, because it seems insane. And
then at that point I realized I needed three categories.
I needed gettable, gonna be tough, and on what planet?
Speaker 3 (27:42):
And this lands?
Speaker 2 (27:42):
And on what planet are the Patriots listed at eight
and a half games for the over under?
Speaker 3 (27:48):
And it all comes back to what you've been hawking
about for.
Speaker 2 (27:50):
Months, Greg, which is quarterback Drake May and the fact
that they had an offseason to inject some talent on
both sides of the ball, support him better on the
offensive line, put some you know pieces around him. He's
got Stafon Diggs there now coming back from the ACL
and people are setting their expectations high because Mike Rable's
got that magic touch. He did it in Tennessee and
they think he's gonna do it in New England. But
(28:11):
do I buy in instantly?
Speaker 1 (28:13):
No?
Speaker 3 (28:14):
I need that proven to me.
Speaker 2 (28:15):
So again, on what planet are they gonna win over
eight and a half games?
Speaker 1 (28:20):
Okay? Schedule is a huge part of it, and we're
gonna get deeper into this when we get closer to
the season, So I don't want to go too crazy today.
These are just first impressions. Schedule is a huge part
of it, and they do have the NFC South on
the schedule, and so that's going to help out the
whole AFCs. The ACAST also has each other. Like the
Dolphins and the Jets aren't amazing opponents. It's not the
(28:40):
worst division of play agains and then they play the
AFC North, which is not as easy. But that just
seems weird to me. The Patriots have won eight games
combined over the last two years. That's just just a
big bump. But uh, you know, what are you thinking?
I think Jets over five and a half? That would
be like, what are you thinking? For me? I think
that get better than that. Along those lines, I'm going
(29:01):
to go I'm going to try to guess like who
was in your categories and maybe you were thinking it
of just like can you get to that win total?
Because this is this is more a win total. That
seems very low to me. The Vikings eight and a
half seems crazy to me. That's so low. Are they
really think that the public is going to be that
low on the Minnesota Vikings. They got the same over
(29:23):
under win total as the Bears, and I don't hate
the Bears, but the Bears are at eight and a half,
They're suddenly the same as the Vikings. I don't care.
Speaker 2 (29:30):
I'd like to introduce you to remember number two of
on what Planet the Vikings at eight and a half.
This is a big projection on the quarterback play not
being there. And look, I understand there was some fraudulents
with this Vikings team a few years ago when they
ended up losing to Daniel Jones in the playoffs, and
then you know they tail spin at the end of
last year, but that was a product of playing a
good defense and a defensive Sam Darnold couldn't you know,
(29:53):
you know, sort out. And yeah, it is a big
swing to just think that a team's gonna win nine
or ten games with a second year quarterback who's essentially
a rookie and JJ McCarthy. But at the same time,
this team got better in the offseason. They won a
ton of games last year before they got these additions.
On what planet do they not win nine games this year?
I'm sorry, I just have a hard time believing.
Speaker 1 (30:13):
That these two teams were nine games apart. Last year.
The Vikings won fourteen, the Bears won five. Now, the
schedule for the NFC North is very difficult for everyone
because they're playing against each other, and the out of
division schedule is difficult so that's that's going to depress
all the numbers. But man, I'm not ready. I don't
(30:35):
want to be making predictions that this is not what
this show is about. It's just numbers that really stuck
out to me, because ultimately, I don't think the quarterback
play for the Vikings is going to be that high
of a bar overall to reach the in the ecosystem
that they have and the rest of the team is
really really good. All right, give me on what planet?
(30:57):
Give me another one of your on what planets?
Speaker 2 (30:59):
Last of three on what Planet members is the Niners
at ten and a half. And yes, look, I understand
they were beaten up by injuries severely last year. They've
also had an off season in which you don't feel
better about the state of the roster than you did
a year prior. It's a bit of a transition time
for them. They also have the brock Party contract thing
going on, you know, swirling around them, and for a
(31:22):
bit there we had the Brandon Ayuk thing. So like,
there's some uncertainty with this club right now just overall
to project them at such a high line, I mean
ten and a half's pretty high. It's one of the
higher ones that you're going to see from any team
in the NFL. I understand that they have continuity, and
they've done it before, and they tend to be like
a rollercoaster from year to year, especially when injuries get involved.
But that's just a really high bar to set for
a team that fell short of expectations, obviously with the
(31:44):
injuries being a big part, and then coming back from
an off season in which you know they had some
pieces leave.
Speaker 1 (31:49):
Yeah, I think the ten and a half is a
little crazy, but it's even more crazy that the Rams
don't have it. So for some context, the NFC West
plays both South divisions. They drew the best draw of
any division in the NFL this year, so they get
the NFC South and the AFC South. I think that's
(32:11):
the ideal out of division schedule, so that helps push
up all these teams, And in fact, the entire NFC
West is eight and a half or over. The Cardinals
and the Seahawks are both at eight and a half
and the Rams are at nine and a half. If
you had just knocked the forty nine ers down one
or flipped them in the Rams, then then I get it.
(32:31):
There's kind of a begging here of Vegas almost to
pick against the forty nine ers, when I'm sure the
systems like that. Cynthia has look at the talent on
the team, look at the previous success, and project that
out forward that actually they're not going to collapse as
much as teams think, and I can understand that. It
just is really weird to me that they would be
(32:53):
behind the Rams. And yeah, not every team is going
to be over five hundred in the division, So either
the Seahawks or the car are going to be coming
up short, or maybe the Rams and or the forty
nine ers as well. Okay, so those were your crazy ones.
Those were the ones to me that also stood out
the most. Basically the Jets, the Vikings, and then the
(33:13):
Rams forty nine ers split just other ones I just
found interesting. The Bucks are at nine and a half.
I like the Bucks. They have the AFC East and
the NFC West out of division, which is not the
toughest slate I don't think, and they have, you know,
of course, six games in the division. They're favored to
win the division by two games. The Falcons are next
(33:35):
at seven and a half, Carolina six and a half,
Saints at six and a half. That's when I can
give a preview. I'm definitely gonna be over on the Bucks.
Speaker 2 (33:43):
Now.
Speaker 1 (33:43):
Is that going to be one of my top three
or four in the NFL? I don't really know, but
with that schedule and that division, to me, that's just
one that I look at right away.
Speaker 2 (33:55):
I actually felt like that was probably a game too high.
And the reason is not that I don't have confidence
in this team, because I do. We've seen that they
became an offensive team last year. Baker Mayfield played his
best football his career in the last two years with them.
They have two talented receivers, and Mike Evans and Chris
Godwin and Jayleen McMillan really stepped up in Godwin's absence
last year, and Bucky Irving had a great rookie year.
But if you look at them over the last three years,
(34:17):
they've won ten games, nine games and eight games, right, Yeah,
that's my division each of those three years. But none
of them were easy and oftentimes they were the best
team in that division, and yet it was still difficult.
So setting it that high, I'd feel more comfortable in
terms of like realistic expectation at eight and a half
than nine and a half, which is why I just
kind of raised an eyebrow at that one.
Speaker 1 (34:39):
Yeah, that one is That's why I wasn't in my
top section. The top section are ones where the number
itself seems crazy to me. This number doesn't seem crazy,
but I'm high on the Bucks as a team that
I believes is now at a certain point in their
cycle of team building, that they're ready to go, and
that they're going to be a really good team this year.
Other ones that stuck out to me the Steelers eight
(35:00):
and a half, which is like the classic we don't
know what to do with this team number, which is
eight and a half. The Chargers still, you know, get
in a lot of love, along with the Broncos at
nine and a half, both of those teams, and then
overall no teams are above eleven and a half, which
is interesting. Usually there's two three four teams at twelve
and a half, So that's a little crazy, and it's
partly because a the good teams all play each other
(35:22):
because of the first place schedules, and that even can
affect that extra game, that seventeenth game, and then b
like the divisional schedules this year, I think the better
teams are all with tough in division games and out
of division games, they're just happen to be playing each other.
But of all those teams that aren't going above eleven
and a half, to me, the Chiefs not getting more
(35:44):
than eleven and a half is the is the craziest
because they're the team of them that out of division
they have the AFC South in the NFC East that's
not too tough, and then in the division you know
it's a good division, but you still have the Raiders there.
It's not like the best division in the world. Out
of division, it's it's a pretty nice schedule. So the
Chiefs always always disrespected at eleven and a half. I
(36:06):
if you you bet the over for them every year,
you'd be a rich man.
Speaker 2 (36:09):
Yeah, this is a franchisees fan base doesn't need any
more reason to think that they they're being disrespected. Let's
put that out there first and foremost. But I also
understand why it's eleven and a half. I would understand
if it was twelve and a half given their history
of success, great success like historic would have been if
they'd won the Super Bowl, and it still is historic.
I think this speaks to the fact that we are
before the draft and that there are still some concerns.
(36:30):
You know, at least what they've done on offensive line,
and it makes sense to me that they would drop
down a game from where you might feel more pleased
with it. But yeah, sure, a little bit of disrespect.
We still have the whole draft to go through.
Speaker 1 (36:42):
I get it. Just here are the win totals since
twenty eighteen, twelve, twelve, fourteen, twelve, fourteen, eleven and fifteen,
and even the eleven got there over that year. I
remember it was ten and a half because.
Speaker 3 (36:55):
I it's sportant, though twelve is sportant, right.
Speaker 1 (36:58):
But again, Chiefs, they're not You're not being disrespected because
you literally are tied for the best record in the
NFL according to everybody speakers right now. Bill's are only
out eleven and a half. The Eagles were only at
eleven and a half, the Lions were only at ten
and a half. That's an interesting one to me. I
think I would I would lean towards the over with
the Lions, but it is a very difficult schedule. It's early.
(37:21):
I just just some first thoughts. I got more in
this space to come you got one more.
Speaker 2 (37:25):
One more in the gonna be tough category. Bears eight
and a half, just because it's projection Ben Johnson high
hopes for him, high hopes for what the Bears can be.
They got their quarterback, everything's cool. It's a lot of
projection to expect them to win nine or more games
off the bat without.
Speaker 3 (37:43):
Again, I'm a cynic. I'm a skeptic. Tough schedule too, Yeah,
prove it to me in a tough division. But eight
and a half, I thought that was a little high.
Speaker 1 (37:51):
I agree with you. I've gone under on the Bears
three straight years as one of my top three to
four picks, and every time it's it's been right there.
I don't think I will just because I want. I
do want to believe in a world where Kleb and
Ben Johnson just make beautiful music together and I see
the vision. I get it. I do think they'll be better.
The schedule is going to be very tough, though, so
I do think it's going to be. It's gonna be
(38:12):
a challenge in that division, never a challenge when we
have you should appreciate you man offensive line, like some
people would look at that as like I'm giving you,
you know, the the dregs of the draft prospects, but
that you look at it like this is this is
the beautiful time you ever see.
Speaker 2 (38:29):
Me on that last daily combine. Folks, It's been a
grind of a week and I couldn't be happier and
more e stacked and walked than to walk into Lucas
Oil Stadium on that day specifically and sit there for
seven hours watching big guys in tights run around.
Speaker 1 (38:41):
I'm looking forward to that. I already am now. I'm
looking forward to the annual show that we will do
with Nick Chuk after the combine. It was fun this
year hearing your all combined team. That's it for today.
Hit the music there, Eric. We will be back in
this feed on Thursday. You know you love him, Dan,
Jeremiah forties and free agents will be talking more big
(39:03):
picture draft. I'm excited about this one. And yeah, like
when we're going deep on Tyler Booker and Gray Zabel
and Josh Connery, you know football is back.
Host
Gregg Rosenthal
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