January 10, 2025 • 21 mins
NFL Daily host Gregg Rosenthal welcomes NFL Network's own Cynthia Frelund to help you get your bets ready for the Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs. In this episode, the duo picks against the spread between the Buccaneers and Commanders, Chargers and Texans, as well as the Packers and Eagles.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Welcome to NFL Daily, where neither snow, nor rain, nor
heat nor ash falling from the sky is gonna stop
us from getting our picks. And yes, we are back.
I'm in my somewhat smoky garage. I admit, got to
get back inside. And Cynthia Friedland is down the coast
(00:24):
a little bit. How are you doing this week, Cynthia.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
I am in better shape than you. We're a little
further it seemed like further south was better. So we're
good here. We're just the puppies and I are hanging
out making sure that they stay. I'm like really psycho
about making sure that we've got so many air purifiers
going that the huskies seem to be okay.
Speaker 1 (00:42):
Yeah, we're fine. That's the thing. We're close and we're
right there. But it's also so crazy to be like
driving home a couple of times I've driven home this week,
especially on Wednesday on the four or five, to be
on the four or five, and as you're coming to
the tent and you look straight and it's blue skies.
If you just don't look, if you look two degrees
(01:05):
to the left, you see the Palisades fire and it's
raging and you look two degrees to the right, like
two pm, and you can see the eaton fire. And
to see both of that and then to drive into
it and obviously we can kind of see it essentially
like it looks like it's at the end of our streets,
(01:26):
but really it's a couple miles away or a mile away,
and there's a canyon between it, and you know, we
just start feeling for everyone out there. Of course, we
mentioned on the preview show with Patrick Claybond that the
NFL is encouraging people to donate to Redcross dot org
slash NFL, so just mentioning that again, and I mentioned
(01:48):
personally Meals on Wheels West does a lot of great
work with the elderly and people near the poverty line
that can use food. And I know for a fact
that they were delivering literally yesterday to their clients and
everyone in the Palisades was accounted for, which is which
is really great on their end. And I know you
you just came back from a Costco run where you're
picking up because you are that kind of person supplies
(02:10):
for people that I.
Speaker 2 (02:12):
Have not been to Costco in Southern California and in
a long, long time and it was a wild experience.
But I'm also like a big pet fan, so I
wanted to make sure to be able to donate.
Speaker 3 (02:23):
There's a lot of like a lot.
Speaker 2 (02:24):
Of pets that are displaced as well, So in addition
to human stuff, which everyone needs more around here, there's
also a lot of pets that you can help out
as well. And that was you know, very I before
we got started here obviously pulled Clyde on because you
hadn't met Clyde yet, so obviously you needs to meet him.
Speaker 1 (02:41):
Yes, your beautiful dog. And and we've got Nori in
the backyard. We made a little tend to over her
so that like the smoke air and the ash that's
falling like doesn't fall on her. Yeah, And you might
be saying, like, why are you doing a podcast? Look,
we've got the whole rest of the day. I've got
the next right in the next forty eight hours. All
(03:02):
I've been doing is doom scrolling and watching the news
and getting our family ready for what we need to
But it's it's fine, it's okay to work. It's a
good distraction a little bit for a few hours, as
are our picks. Except for last week, not a good distraction.
And by the way, before I get further in the show,
we are going to try to do a Saturday night
recap show live with Bill Barnwell on YouTube. So I
(03:23):
want people to go to the YouTube channel while while
I'm here, yeah, you know, like and subscribe it there
and you can support us there in Cynthia's YouTube channel
as well numbers game and just just check her out
as well. So all that out of the way, get
into our picks. We did not have a good Week eighteen.
(03:43):
Let's just ignore it. We literally didn't win a game.
Week eighteen got us with all the sitting starters and
we thought we were cute, and you pushed one of
your games, which didn't you know, which at least was
a normal game, so fun technically you didn't go zero
and three.
Speaker 3 (03:58):
Yes, it's pure coming there.
Speaker 1 (04:00):
But we're still over five hundred for the year. We're
going to bounce well over and we're going to bounce back.
I'm you know, if you check out the game debut picks,
which we keep track of, I'm twenty over against the
spread all year, so I'm annoyed I'm not higher in
this format, but we're still above five hundred. We're going
to bounce back. You give me your first pick. This
is the show where we make three picks a week.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
Okay, So I'm going to start down in I guess
it's Sunday night, and down in Tampa. I think that
the Bucks. It's a three point line, is what I'm
seeing right now, and I think that the Bucks cover
that I don't there's a lot these lines are really
interesting this week.
Speaker 3 (04:35):
There aren't.
Speaker 2 (04:35):
I don't look at anything, and I'm like, I feel
so confident. But I think that one is the one
where I feel like the experience of Todd Bowles in
this situation, the added pieces to the defense, and Twin
Winfield junior. That's a huge upgrade in their secondary. That's
a huge, massive deal. I think that one Tampa by
(04:56):
at least three points.
Speaker 3 (04:58):
That one. I wish it was two and a half,
but whatever, but you know, it is what it is.
Speaker 1 (05:03):
I'm joining you. I had a feeling both of us
were on the Bucks last week. Obviously we lost that
and that was a division matchup. Didn't expect that they
were lucky to get out of there with a win,
much less winning by eight in the end. The way
that Saints defense played them. But I think these playoff
(05:23):
numbers they're hard in terms of nothing sticks out because
you have less to choose from, and the numbers at
the end of the season they're tighter. And I was
glad to see this one because to me, this was
the only obvious one for me as well, this was
my number one pick. I'm with you that I think
they're a little undervalued, because to me, these two teams
are if you look at all, the numbers are quite even,
(05:45):
and that's why it's three over the course of the season.
But ultimately their best to me, is so much better
I think than the Commander's best. They're a high variance team,
I'll admit it, but even their average game and the
Commander's average game that's Cloe. But their best I think
could win by a couple scores here. Even if you
just look at the players, their defense is a little better.
(06:07):
They do have better players overall in their secondary and
up front. Jalen McMillan. I'll take him over any wide
receiver too from Washington. I really like their offensive line.
If you compare them to the offensive line of Washington,
they're tight end kada and I take them over Zach Erz.
It's all these like little advantages. It's not a huge thing.
Jayden Daniels is tough to deal with, and the Bucks
(06:28):
defense is nothing special. But like I said, this is
the one I really like. I think they get back
to the Divisional round. It'd be the fourth time in
the fifth year for your boy, Baker Mayfield and Jason Light.
I don't know if Jason Light's your boy, but they're
pretty good there in Tampa.
Speaker 3 (06:44):
I like.
Speaker 2 (06:45):
I think Todd Bowles is my favorite of all these
people in Tampa. I just think he is salt of
the earth. Plus they have a guy from Okamis on
their staff. Duh, tight end coach is from Okamis. So
you Low's live a good hometown.
Speaker 1 (06:58):
You are a Todd Bowles guy. And it's good they
won that game last week. I literally was thinking a halftime, man,
if they lose this game, who knows what could happen there.
But now, if you get back to the divisional round,
like I said, fourth time in fifth years, that would
be outrageous. It's crazy. They actually have more wins than
any team Cynthia in the NFC over the last five years.
(07:21):
Pretty good, are you going NFC or AFC with your
next pick, I'm.
Speaker 3 (07:26):
Gonna go this one like the points make me like
it a lot more. I was a little surprised. I
was shocked by my model.
Speaker 2 (07:34):
I should say I should sell it harder, but I
actually have Houston winning in that first game. This weekend,
I have Houston at home upsetting the Chargers. The Chargers
are three point road favorites. And while we've seen some
disturbing things from this Texans offense defense at particular times,
(07:56):
I think there's a few things that really bolster us
for me.
Speaker 3 (07:59):
Number one, the.
Speaker 2 (08:00):
Injury report for the Chargers includes both of their starting
running backs.
Speaker 3 (08:05):
I think that JK.
Speaker 2 (08:06):
Dobbins plays, but they did sign Ezekiel Elliott to the
practice squad, which at least adds a little bit of
fanfare to the idea that they're not completely healthy.
Speaker 3 (08:15):
I also saw Rashaun Slater.
Speaker 2 (08:17):
He practiced in full as of the last time the
practice report came out, but practicing in full does not
make you one hundred percent healthy. And Rashawn Slater has
been excellent this season, but without him, that could be
a much more difficult value proposition. We know that this
Texans front brings pressure at the second highest rate. We
(08:37):
know that their back end of their defense. They have
backed it up with Derek Stingley Junior and Kamari Lassiter.
I just think in this matchup, in a one game
sample size, if they can get that run game going
like we saw from the Texans in Week eighteen, which
I know wasn't really for anything, I still think that
that is that is an advantage over the Chargers, at
least if you're giving me three points too.
Speaker 3 (08:56):
I have them winning, you know, on their own.
Speaker 2 (08:58):
But I think that if you're especially for giving me
three points, it's just this silly not to take that number.
Speaker 1 (09:04):
Well, we're going against each other here. I'm going to
be boring and be Johnny public. I have a feeling
this is going to be one of the heaviest bet games,
and we're not allowed to bet, so we're just making
not us. But I have a feeling this will be
one of the heaviest action games. It's the first of
the weekend, and I just think the public is going
(09:24):
to be on the Chargers because it seems too obvious,
and generally the public loses in those cases. Now, I
have noticed with this this particular weekend, I am in
on a lot of favorites this weekend, and it actually
has been a favorites type of season and a public
type of season. So I don't know if that continues
(09:46):
at all. That doesn't mean anything, and obviously on a
pick to pick basis, but that's what the season has
been like. And I just look at the way the
Chargers are playing now. I look at the Texans are
twenty sixth in total offensive efficiency for the season, twenty
six and they're playing a defense it's it's not as
good as the Texans defense, like Mac and Bosa have
(10:06):
been a little quiet lately, but what they've done well
all season is beat bad offenses and kind of make
you beat them, go the long way down the field
and just hold points down. I think their ninth and
overall efficiency on defense, and a lot part of that
is their schedule. But this is an easy matchup for them,
I think ultimately. And then you just look at the
(10:27):
way my guy Herbo is playing with so much confidence.
We've talked. I've talked a lot about this game already
on the show because we had Seth Payin on who
who does radio in Houston, So we talked about this
game for like twenty five minutes. I don't want to
keep repeating myself. Ultimately, I lean Chargers. In a week
where I don't have a lot of favorite picks, this
was my third favorite pick. But since you made it
and I'm going against you, I'll go second with it.
(10:50):
Give me your third pick, unless unless you have anything
else you want to jump in on there.
Speaker 2 (10:53):
No, I mean, look, I was gut wise. I was
surprised that the model went with Houston. Then I looked
into a little bit more and some specifics into it,
and I was like, I guess one point, whoo.
Speaker 1 (11:04):
They have great players, a great team, like they're they're
an average team, and you're an underdog at home. I
can see why you don't even have to win the game.
You just gotta have to keep it with them. Three.
Speaker 3 (11:13):
All right.
Speaker 2 (11:16):
I want to say that I want to take Philadelphia
with the points to cover, But my problem is that
as of right now, I like, if Jordan Love doesn't
play or like is not okay, then that number is
going to go in the wrong direction.
Speaker 1 (11:31):
I think I think we could make our picks assuming
both starting quarterbacks are playing. You want, It's up to you,
It's up to you. We could we could both put
backup picks, not to give away my third pick is too.
We could have a backup as our fourth anyways, because
I don't love it that much more. But this is
also the game I'm gonna pick.
Speaker 2 (11:47):
Oh great, I think, Well, let's see, I'll just go
purely on numbers. I mean, I guess, I technically.
Speaker 3 (11:56):
I guess.
Speaker 2 (11:56):
I look, I'm gonna tell you the numbers. Say right now,
I technically like the Rams plus one and a half,
tiny like point point by tiny percentage points.
Speaker 1 (12:09):
Well, that's not much. Do you want to just go
with the Eagles as your pick? If that's the one
you feel good about, let's go for it.
Speaker 3 (12:14):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (12:14):
I mean my problem with the Rams pick is if
any displacement happens, I don't want to get into that
with Arizona.
Speaker 3 (12:21):
And all that stuff.
Speaker 2 (12:21):
So I'm going to go with I'm going to go
with the Eagles to cover four and a half points,
not eight and a half or whatever. Like, if something
weird happens, that would be I wouldn't like that. But
I think four and a half points is a manageable
number for a team that has this defense. Because for me,
Josh Jacobs is the key that makes this offense work
for the Packers. And where does Josh Jacobs do his damage?
(12:44):
He has the most yards, the most yards after contact,
and the most touchdowns between the tackles. Where does Jalen
Carter live? Where does Jordan Davids live in the middle,
So getting the outside run going, and like that's Zach
Bond territory, Like, no, thank you. I just think it's
going to be very hard for the Packers to sustain english,
sustain that level of efficiency and keep Jordan love. He's
(13:08):
now been great against the Blitz. Why because he's been
in manageable downs and distances. He's not heaving it for
no reason. This is a team that's so pot committed
to rushing in the first half of games. They've done
it the most in the NFL. It's something like forty
nine percent. There's been eight games or so where they've
run for more than fifty percent in the first half. Like,
doesn't matter if it's if it's a situationally the right
(13:31):
thing to do. They're doing it anyways because their a
rush rate over expected is something like plus fifteen percent,
like massive numbers. So you mess with with Josh Jacob's
ability to be efficient forecasts for a hard game for
the pack.
Speaker 1 (13:46):
Yeah, we didn't talk about that much on the previous show,
so I'm really glad you did, because I think Zach Bondon.
The reason he's been so good in part and been
their skeleton key for kind of unlock and everything, is
he can basically be a defensive lineman when they need
him to be in the running game, and yet he's
(14:07):
great if he's not on the line of scrimmage and
he's playing linebacker. He's truly a hybrid in a league
that is looking for him. Guy can basically play multiple positions.
And yes, in this game, the Eagles defense and that
Vic Fangio defense has gotten a lot of credit this year,
and you think about the young secondary, and you think
about Jalen Carter, and you make a good point there,
(14:28):
but it's really a team defense that usually Fangio's defense,
that's their vulnerabilities against the run, and it is just
not the case at all this year. So this is
my pick as well. I'm going Eagles four and a half.
We are together on two and we're opposite on one,
and we're only gonna end up talking about three games
(14:48):
really on this show, because yeah, that was the one
I felt the best in. And again, it's about whether
you value the last month or do you value the
course of the season. I think the Pack are a
really good team. But I agree with what Daniel Jeremiah
and Brian Baldinger, our friends, said on NFL Network the
other day when I was watching. They thought the Eagles
are the favorites in the NFC, and.
Speaker 3 (15:10):
He should be. I think I have a Bobby Lane
jersey behind me.
Speaker 1 (15:13):
Yeah, they absolutely should be there. They just have so
many different ways to beat you. I think they're real coach.
Speaker 2 (15:20):
I'm not saying that if the Lions are fully staffed.
I'm saying that in the situation that we find ourselves
in today. You know, I if I'm yes. But that's
the thing is, that's why we played the full season,
right like, because the Lions. You know, maybe that advantage
will be enough. But I certainly my preseason pick for
the Super Bowl Chiefs Eagles.
Speaker 3 (15:41):
Feeling pretty good about it right now.
Speaker 1 (15:43):
Yeah, I had. I had Bill's Lions, and I had
Lions Eagles in the NFC Championship game, So I feel
good about all that. Don't ask me who else I
had in the championship game because I have them. I
had them losing to the Chargers this weekend, So I
don't think my Texans to the championship game is gonna happen.
But I don't know if I'm gonna pick the Eagles
(16:03):
over the Lions if that game happens at the home
field advantage. I'm talking about them favorite in a vacuum,
and so as good as this Packers team is, ultimately,
I think the number one mismatch and I didn't talk
about this in preview in this game is the Eagles
pass protecting when they need to, and they're always in
great situations for herts third and three, third and four,
(16:24):
whatever it is, second, you know, first down, and I
do think when they're gonna need to pass, I just
don't trust the Packers to get on him at all.
And maybe they'll off to blitz more, but they've shown
they can pick that up and handle that well, and
so I think there could be a lot of points
in this game, even though they are two pretty good defenses.
(16:44):
But I just trust the Eagles to get over that
number in the end where you said the Rams would
have been next for you, for me, it probably would
have been probably would have been the Broncos. It probably
would have been the BRONXO. Yeah, weird number feels like
a lot and you could see Josh Allen going crazy
at the end of the game in what ultimately is
(17:06):
a close game. But I just think the Broncos are
a good team and that's a lot of points to
give a good team in the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (17:13):
Okay, so we didn't have game debut this week. Do
you remember what you would have said for your write
this down? I can go first because I know I
write this down off hand.
Speaker 1 (17:23):
I don't know for daily listeners, yes, who don't know
game debut, write this down. At the very end, we
give our maybe our favorite pick, but usually it's our
favorite prop type of pick for the week. And I
got three in a row, but I've been riding Jamir
Gibbs and that's not available this week. I did not
have one.
Speaker 3 (17:39):
You got to pick something else.
Speaker 1 (17:42):
Okay, go ahead, wear this.
Speaker 3 (17:43):
One with me if you like.
Speaker 2 (17:44):
And it is cam Akers to have more than twenty
four and twenty three and a half rushing yards against
his former team. He's coming off a sixty five yard
outing on the ground against the Lions. If you're looking
at Sam Darnold, what's the outlet going to be? The
run is Aaron Jones one hundred percent? Your girl doesn't know,
but I do know that if I'm looking at twenty
(18:05):
three yards against your former team, are you kidding me?
Speaker 3 (18:08):
I love a good narrative thing.
Speaker 2 (18:10):
That matches my math, So like anger alongside revenge alongside
of math is like that is the best combination.
Speaker 1 (18:17):
And he's been running really well lately. He passes the
eye test, had a good one of the few players
who had a good week eighteen against the Lions, I
did not have one picked out. As I had mentioned,
we had evacuated, we've been on the run. We're back
at home now, so I did not do any game
debut prep and we ended up the show ended up
getting canceled. But now that we're talking and I'm thinking
(18:40):
about these games specifically and we're talking about the Bills,
I kind of like, just James Cook's rushing number, whatever
it is, it's not a good way to pick props
is just well, whatever that number is. But ultimately, I
do think that's the mismatch in this game, and I
think they've shown us they can win multiple types of
ways and I think they'll be patient with him, and
so I think it's a James Cook game against the
(19:01):
Broncos that that's where I would go.
Speaker 2 (19:02):
Yeah, so I think a James Cook touchdown is where
i'd go with that. I love like the same thing
because what you know, the most rushing touchdowns was sixteen
on the season, eighteen touchdowns tied for the second most
among any players. And if you look at the difference
between losses and wins for the Broncos, they allow rushing
touchdowns in losses and they kind of don't and wins.
(19:23):
That's the you know, the rule of thumb for them
this season. So if you think the Bills are going
to win, then you think, hey, a rushing touchdown could happen.
So that's how I'm playing that one too. I think
James I don't remember, I don't know the number offhand
for him for rushing yards, but I'm liking the touchdown odds.
Speaker 1 (19:38):
I love that. And yes, apologies to the other two
games this weekend that we just didn't even mention at all,
But I don't know a Raven Steelers game with that
big a number. I'd rather just watch the football and
not stress out about it. It just let's see what happened.
Speaker 2 (19:52):
I want to see like the like is George Pickens
going to keep his keep the lid on it or not?
Because I just think this is one where he's like what,
like it's gonna be wild like that.
Speaker 1 (20:04):
That is a fun side note. And yeah, Vikings Rams
to me, is the most unpredictable game of the weekend.
You could tell me anything would happen in the game
no matter where it is. I know, I guess you
were leaning Rams if it's in Los Angeles.
Speaker 3 (20:15):
I actually have the Vikings by one, so it was
going to be Rams with.
Speaker 1 (20:18):
The points, gotcha, so the old threading the needle. But
that that's when I have no feel on I just
want to watch it and enjoy it as we will
do the rest of the weekend. Like I said, we're
going to be back on Saturday night. Haven't done this.
We did some tnfs early in the season, but it
got difficult with the game debut schedule to do it live.
So I really appreciate everyone who has supported the show
(20:39):
all season long. Let's let's let's get the community going
show up Saturday night. We'll go live on YouTube probably
about ten minutes after the game with one of the
best in the business, Bill Barnwell, talking about two big
AFC games, so I'm really looking forward to that. I'm
going to check out Numbers game on your YouTube channel
in the new time. Thank you, Cynthia. Yes, when we
(20:59):
take the super out of Super Wildcard weekend, you can't
say Super anymore. It is just Wildcard weekend. That is
when you know football is back and you'll see Za
Welcome to NFL Daily, where neither snow, nor rain, nor
heat nor ash falling from the sky is gonna stop
us from getting our picks. And yes, we are back.
I'm in my somewhat smoky garage. I admit, got to
get back inside. And Cynthia Friedland is down the coast
(00:24):
a little bit. How are you doing this week, Cynthia.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
I am in better shape than you. We're a little
further it seemed like further south was better. So we're
good here. We're just the puppies and I are hanging
out making sure that they stay. I'm like really psycho
about making sure that we've got so many air purifiers
going that the huskies seem to be okay.
Speaker 1 (00:42):
Yeah, we're fine. That's the thing. We're close and we're
right there. But it's also so crazy to be like
driving home a couple of times I've driven home this week,
especially on Wednesday on the four or five, to be
on the four or five, and as you're coming to
the tent and you look straight and it's blue skies.
If you just don't look, if you look two degrees
(01:05):
to the left, you see the Palisades fire and it's
raging and you look two degrees to the right, like
two pm, and you can see the eaton fire. And
to see both of that and then to drive into
it and obviously we can kind of see it essentially
like it looks like it's at the end of our streets,
(01:26):
but really it's a couple miles away or a mile away,
and there's a canyon between it, and you know, we
just start feeling for everyone out there. Of course, we
mentioned on the preview show with Patrick Claybond that the
NFL is encouraging people to donate to Redcross dot org
slash NFL, so just mentioning that again, and I mentioned
(01:48):
personally Meals on Wheels West does a lot of great
work with the elderly and people near the poverty line
that can use food. And I know for a fact
that they were delivering literally yesterday to their clients and
everyone in the Palisades was accounted for, which is which
is really great on their end. And I know you
you just came back from a Costco run where you're
picking up because you are that kind of person supplies
(02:10):
for people that I.
Speaker 2 (02:12):
Have not been to Costco in Southern California and in
a long, long time and it was a wild experience.
But I'm also like a big pet fan, so I
wanted to make sure to be able to donate.
Speaker 3 (02:23):
There's a lot of like a lot.
Speaker 2 (02:24):
Of pets that are displaced as well, So in addition
to human stuff, which everyone needs more around here, there's
also a lot of pets that you can help out
as well. And that was you know, very I before
we got started here obviously pulled Clyde on because you
hadn't met Clyde yet, so obviously you needs to meet him.
Speaker 1 (02:41):
Yes, your beautiful dog. And and we've got Nori in
the backyard. We made a little tend to over her
so that like the smoke air and the ash that's
falling like doesn't fall on her. Yeah, And you might
be saying, like, why are you doing a podcast? Look,
we've got the whole rest of the day. I've got
the next right in the next forty eight hours. All
(03:02):
I've been doing is doom scrolling and watching the news
and getting our family ready for what we need to
But it's it's fine, it's okay to work. It's a
good distraction a little bit for a few hours, as
are our picks. Except for last week, not a good distraction.
And by the way, before I get further in the show,
we are going to try to do a Saturday night
recap show live with Bill Barnwell on YouTube. So I
(03:23):
want people to go to the YouTube channel while while
I'm here, yeah, you know, like and subscribe it there
and you can support us there in Cynthia's YouTube channel
as well numbers game and just just check her out
as well. So all that out of the way, get
into our picks. We did not have a good Week eighteen.
(03:43):
Let's just ignore it. We literally didn't win a game.
Week eighteen got us with all the sitting starters and
we thought we were cute, and you pushed one of
your games, which didn't you know, which at least was
a normal game, so fun technically you didn't go zero
and three.
Speaker 3 (03:58):
Yes, it's pure coming there.
Speaker 1 (04:00):
But we're still over five hundred for the year. We're
going to bounce well over and we're going to bounce back.
I'm you know, if you check out the game debut picks,
which we keep track of, I'm twenty over against the
spread all year, so I'm annoyed I'm not higher in
this format, but we're still above five hundred. We're going
to bounce back. You give me your first pick. This
is the show where we make three picks a week.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
Okay, So I'm going to start down in I guess
it's Sunday night, and down in Tampa. I think that
the Bucks. It's a three point line, is what I'm
seeing right now, and I think that the Bucks cover
that I don't there's a lot these lines are really
interesting this week.
Speaker 3 (04:35):
There aren't.
Speaker 2 (04:35):
I don't look at anything, and I'm like, I feel
so confident. But I think that one is the one
where I feel like the experience of Todd Bowles in
this situation, the added pieces to the defense, and Twin
Winfield junior. That's a huge upgrade in their secondary. That's
a huge, massive deal. I think that one Tampa by
(04:56):
at least three points.
Speaker 3 (04:58):
That one. I wish it was two and a half,
but whatever, but you know, it is what it is.
Speaker 1 (05:03):
I'm joining you. I had a feeling both of us
were on the Bucks last week. Obviously we lost that
and that was a division matchup. Didn't expect that they
were lucky to get out of there with a win,
much less winning by eight in the end. The way
that Saints defense played them. But I think these playoff
(05:23):
numbers they're hard in terms of nothing sticks out because
you have less to choose from, and the numbers at
the end of the season they're tighter. And I was
glad to see this one because to me, this was
the only obvious one for me as well, this was
my number one pick. I'm with you that I think
they're a little undervalued, because to me, these two teams
are if you look at all, the numbers are quite even,
(05:45):
and that's why it's three over the course of the season.
But ultimately their best to me, is so much better
I think than the Commander's best. They're a high variance team,
I'll admit it, but even their average game and the
Commander's average game that's Cloe. But their best I think
could win by a couple scores here. Even if you
just look at the players, their defense is a little better.
(06:07):
They do have better players overall in their secondary and
up front. Jalen McMillan. I'll take him over any wide
receiver too from Washington. I really like their offensive line.
If you compare them to the offensive line of Washington,
they're tight end kada and I take them over Zach Erz.
It's all these like little advantages. It's not a huge thing.
Jayden Daniels is tough to deal with, and the Bucks
(06:28):
defense is nothing special. But like I said, this is
the one I really like. I think they get back
to the Divisional round. It'd be the fourth time in
the fifth year for your boy, Baker Mayfield and Jason Light.
I don't know if Jason Light's your boy, but they're
pretty good there in Tampa.
Speaker 3 (06:44):
I like.
Speaker 2 (06:45):
I think Todd Bowles is my favorite of all these
people in Tampa. I just think he is salt of
the earth. Plus they have a guy from Okamis on
their staff. Duh, tight end coach is from Okamis. So
you Low's live a good hometown.
Speaker 1 (06:58):
You are a Todd Bowles guy. And it's good they
won that game last week. I literally was thinking a halftime, man,
if they lose this game, who knows what could happen there.
But now, if you get back to the divisional round,
like I said, fourth time in fifth years, that would
be outrageous. It's crazy. They actually have more wins than
any team Cynthia in the NFC over the last five years.
(07:21):
Pretty good, are you going NFC or AFC with your
next pick, I'm.
Speaker 3 (07:26):
Gonna go this one like the points make me like
it a lot more. I was a little surprised. I
was shocked by my model.
Speaker 2 (07:34):
I should say I should sell it harder, but I
actually have Houston winning in that first game. This weekend,
I have Houston at home upsetting the Chargers. The Chargers
are three point road favorites. And while we've seen some
disturbing things from this Texans offense defense at particular times,
(07:56):
I think there's a few things that really bolster us
for me.
Speaker 3 (07:59):
Number one, the.
Speaker 2 (08:00):
Injury report for the Chargers includes both of their starting
running backs.
Speaker 3 (08:05):
I think that JK.
Speaker 2 (08:06):
Dobbins plays, but they did sign Ezekiel Elliott to the
practice squad, which at least adds a little bit of
fanfare to the idea that they're not completely healthy.
Speaker 3 (08:15):
I also saw Rashaun Slater.
Speaker 2 (08:17):
He practiced in full as of the last time the
practice report came out, but practicing in full does not
make you one hundred percent healthy. And Rashawn Slater has
been excellent this season, but without him, that could be
a much more difficult value proposition. We know that this
Texans front brings pressure at the second highest rate. We
(08:37):
know that their back end of their defense. They have
backed it up with Derek Stingley Junior and Kamari Lassiter.
I just think in this matchup, in a one game
sample size, if they can get that run game going
like we saw from the Texans in Week eighteen, which
I know wasn't really for anything, I still think that
that is that is an advantage over the Chargers, at
least if you're giving me three points too.
Speaker 3 (08:56):
I have them winning, you know, on their own.
Speaker 2 (08:58):
But I think that if you're especially for giving me
three points, it's just this silly not to take that number.
Speaker 1 (09:04):
Well, we're going against each other here. I'm going to
be boring and be Johnny public. I have a feeling
this is going to be one of the heaviest bet games,
and we're not allowed to bet, so we're just making
not us. But I have a feeling this will be
one of the heaviest action games. It's the first of
the weekend, and I just think the public is going
(09:24):
to be on the Chargers because it seems too obvious,
and generally the public loses in those cases. Now, I
have noticed with this this particular weekend, I am in
on a lot of favorites this weekend, and it actually
has been a favorites type of season and a public
type of season. So I don't know if that continues
(09:46):
at all. That doesn't mean anything, and obviously on a
pick to pick basis, but that's what the season has
been like. And I just look at the way the
Chargers are playing now. I look at the Texans are
twenty sixth in total offensive efficiency for the season, twenty
six and they're playing a defense it's it's not as
good as the Texans defense, like Mac and Bosa have
(10:06):
been a little quiet lately, but what they've done well
all season is beat bad offenses and kind of make
you beat them, go the long way down the field
and just hold points down. I think their ninth and
overall efficiency on defense, and a lot part of that
is their schedule. But this is an easy matchup for them,
I think ultimately. And then you just look at the
(10:27):
way my guy Herbo is playing with so much confidence.
We've talked. I've talked a lot about this game already
on the show because we had Seth Payin on who
who does radio in Houston, So we talked about this
game for like twenty five minutes. I don't want to
keep repeating myself. Ultimately, I lean Chargers. In a week
where I don't have a lot of favorite picks, this
was my third favorite pick. But since you made it
and I'm going against you, I'll go second with it.
(10:50):
Give me your third pick, unless unless you have anything
else you want to jump in on there.
Speaker 2 (10:53):
No, I mean, look, I was gut wise. I was
surprised that the model went with Houston. Then I looked
into a little bit more and some specifics into it,
and I was like, I guess one point, whoo.
Speaker 1 (11:04):
They have great players, a great team, like they're they're
an average team, and you're an underdog at home. I
can see why you don't even have to win the game.
You just gotta have to keep it with them. Three.
Speaker 3 (11:13):
All right.
Speaker 2 (11:16):
I want to say that I want to take Philadelphia
with the points to cover, But my problem is that
as of right now, I like, if Jordan Love doesn't
play or like is not okay, then that number is
going to go in the wrong direction.
Speaker 1 (11:31):
I think I think we could make our picks assuming
both starting quarterbacks are playing. You want, It's up to you,
It's up to you. We could we could both put
backup picks, not to give away my third pick is too.
We could have a backup as our fourth anyways, because
I don't love it that much more. But this is
also the game I'm gonna pick.
Speaker 2 (11:47):
Oh great, I think, Well, let's see, I'll just go
purely on numbers. I mean, I guess, I technically.
Speaker 3 (11:56):
I guess.
Speaker 2 (11:56):
I look, I'm gonna tell you the numbers. Say right now,
I technically like the Rams plus one and a half,
tiny like point point by tiny percentage points.
Speaker 1 (12:09):
Well, that's not much. Do you want to just go
with the Eagles as your pick? If that's the one
you feel good about, let's go for it.
Speaker 3 (12:14):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (12:14):
I mean my problem with the Rams pick is if
any displacement happens, I don't want to get into that
with Arizona.
Speaker 3 (12:21):
And all that stuff.
Speaker 2 (12:21):
So I'm going to go with I'm going to go
with the Eagles to cover four and a half points,
not eight and a half or whatever. Like, if something
weird happens, that would be I wouldn't like that. But
I think four and a half points is a manageable
number for a team that has this defense. Because for me,
Josh Jacobs is the key that makes this offense work
for the Packers. And where does Josh Jacobs do his damage?
(12:44):
He has the most yards, the most yards after contact,
and the most touchdowns between the tackles. Where does Jalen
Carter live? Where does Jordan Davids live in the middle,
So getting the outside run going, and like that's Zach
Bond territory, Like, no, thank you. I just think it's
going to be very hard for the Packers to sustain english,
sustain that level of efficiency and keep Jordan love. He's
(13:08):
now been great against the Blitz. Why because he's been
in manageable downs and distances. He's not heaving it for
no reason. This is a team that's so pot committed
to rushing in the first half of games. They've done
it the most in the NFL. It's something like forty
nine percent. There's been eight games or so where they've
run for more than fifty percent in the first half. Like,
doesn't matter if it's if it's a situationally the right
(13:31):
thing to do. They're doing it anyways because their a
rush rate over expected is something like plus fifteen percent,
like massive numbers. So you mess with with Josh Jacob's
ability to be efficient forecasts for a hard game for
the pack.
Speaker 1 (13:46):
Yeah, we didn't talk about that much on the previous show,
so I'm really glad you did, because I think Zach Bondon.
The reason he's been so good in part and been
their skeleton key for kind of unlock and everything, is
he can basically be a defensive lineman when they need
him to be in the running game, and yet he's
(14:07):
great if he's not on the line of scrimmage and
he's playing linebacker. He's truly a hybrid in a league
that is looking for him. Guy can basically play multiple positions.
And yes, in this game, the Eagles defense and that
Vic Fangio defense has gotten a lot of credit this year,
and you think about the young secondary, and you think
about Jalen Carter, and you make a good point there,
(14:28):
but it's really a team defense that usually Fangio's defense,
that's their vulnerabilities against the run, and it is just
not the case at all this year. So this is
my pick as well. I'm going Eagles four and a half.
We are together on two and we're opposite on one,
and we're only gonna end up talking about three games
(14:48):
really on this show, because yeah, that was the one
I felt the best in. And again, it's about whether
you value the last month or do you value the
course of the season. I think the Pack are a
really good team. But I agree with what Daniel Jeremiah
and Brian Baldinger, our friends, said on NFL Network the
other day when I was watching. They thought the Eagles
are the favorites in the NFC, and.
Speaker 3 (15:10):
He should be. I think I have a Bobby Lane
jersey behind me.
Speaker 1 (15:13):
Yeah, they absolutely should be there. They just have so
many different ways to beat you. I think they're real coach.
Speaker 2 (15:20):
I'm not saying that if the Lions are fully staffed.
I'm saying that in the situation that we find ourselves
in today. You know, I if I'm yes. But that's
the thing is, that's why we played the full season,
right like, because the Lions. You know, maybe that advantage
will be enough. But I certainly my preseason pick for
the Super Bowl Chiefs Eagles.
Speaker 3 (15:41):
Feeling pretty good about it right now.
Speaker 1 (15:43):
Yeah, I had. I had Bill's Lions, and I had
Lions Eagles in the NFC Championship game, So I feel
good about all that. Don't ask me who else I
had in the championship game because I have them. I
had them losing to the Chargers this weekend, So I
don't think my Texans to the championship game is gonna happen.
But I don't know if I'm gonna pick the Eagles
(16:03):
over the Lions if that game happens at the home
field advantage. I'm talking about them favorite in a vacuum,
and so as good as this Packers team is, ultimately,
I think the number one mismatch and I didn't talk
about this in preview in this game is the Eagles
pass protecting when they need to, and they're always in
great situations for herts third and three, third and four,
(16:24):
whatever it is, second, you know, first down, and I
do think when they're gonna need to pass, I just
don't trust the Packers to get on him at all.
And maybe they'll off to blitz more, but they've shown
they can pick that up and handle that well, and
so I think there could be a lot of points
in this game, even though they are two pretty good defenses.
(16:44):
But I just trust the Eagles to get over that
number in the end where you said the Rams would
have been next for you, for me, it probably would
have been probably would have been the Broncos. It probably
would have been the BRONXO. Yeah, weird number feels like
a lot and you could see Josh Allen going crazy
at the end of the game in what ultimately is
(17:06):
a close game. But I just think the Broncos are
a good team and that's a lot of points to
give a good team in the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (17:13):
Okay, so we didn't have game debut this week. Do
you remember what you would have said for your write
this down? I can go first because I know I
write this down off hand.
Speaker 1 (17:23):
I don't know for daily listeners, yes, who don't know
game debut, write this down. At the very end, we
give our maybe our favorite pick, but usually it's our
favorite prop type of pick for the week. And I
got three in a row, but I've been riding Jamir
Gibbs and that's not available this week. I did not
have one.
Speaker 3 (17:39):
You got to pick something else.
Speaker 1 (17:42):
Okay, go ahead, wear this.
Speaker 3 (17:43):
One with me if you like.
Speaker 2 (17:44):
And it is cam Akers to have more than twenty
four and twenty three and a half rushing yards against
his former team. He's coming off a sixty five yard
outing on the ground against the Lions. If you're looking
at Sam Darnold, what's the outlet going to be? The
run is Aaron Jones one hundred percent? Your girl doesn't know,
but I do know that if I'm looking at twenty
(18:05):
three yards against your former team, are you kidding me?
Speaker 3 (18:08):
I love a good narrative thing.
Speaker 2 (18:10):
That matches my math, So like anger alongside revenge alongside
of math is like that is the best combination.
Speaker 1 (18:17):
And he's been running really well lately. He passes the
eye test, had a good one of the few players
who had a good week eighteen against the Lions, I
did not have one picked out. As I had mentioned,
we had evacuated, we've been on the run. We're back
at home now, so I did not do any game
debut prep and we ended up the show ended up
getting canceled. But now that we're talking and I'm thinking
(18:40):
about these games specifically and we're talking about the Bills,
I kind of like, just James Cook's rushing number, whatever
it is, it's not a good way to pick props
is just well, whatever that number is. But ultimately, I
do think that's the mismatch in this game, and I
think they've shown us they can win multiple types of
ways and I think they'll be patient with him, and
so I think it's a James Cook game against the
(19:01):
Broncos that that's where I would go.
Speaker 2 (19:02):
Yeah, so I think a James Cook touchdown is where
i'd go with that. I love like the same thing
because what you know, the most rushing touchdowns was sixteen
on the season, eighteen touchdowns tied for the second most
among any players. And if you look at the difference
between losses and wins for the Broncos, they allow rushing
touchdowns in losses and they kind of don't and wins.
(19:23):
That's the you know, the rule of thumb for them
this season. So if you think the Bills are going
to win, then you think, hey, a rushing touchdown could happen.
So that's how I'm playing that one too. I think
James I don't remember, I don't know the number offhand
for him for rushing yards, but I'm liking the touchdown odds.
Speaker 1 (19:38):
I love that. And yes, apologies to the other two
games this weekend that we just didn't even mention at all,
But I don't know a Raven Steelers game with that
big a number. I'd rather just watch the football and
not stress out about it. It just let's see what happened.
Speaker 2 (19:52):
I want to see like the like is George Pickens
going to keep his keep the lid on it or not?
Because I just think this is one where he's like what,
like it's gonna be wild like that.
Speaker 1 (20:04):
That is a fun side note. And yeah, Vikings Rams
to me, is the most unpredictable game of the weekend.
You could tell me anything would happen in the game
no matter where it is. I know, I guess you
were leaning Rams if it's in Los Angeles.
Speaker 3 (20:15):
I actually have the Vikings by one, so it was
going to be Rams with.
Speaker 1 (20:18):
The points, gotcha, so the old threading the needle. But
that that's when I have no feel on I just
want to watch it and enjoy it as we will
do the rest of the weekend. Like I said, we're
going to be back on Saturday night. Haven't done this.
We did some tnfs early in the season, but it
got difficult with the game debut schedule to do it live.
So I really appreciate everyone who has supported the show
(20:39):
all season long. Let's let's let's get the community going
show up Saturday night. We'll go live on YouTube probably
about ten minutes after the game with one of the
best in the business, Bill Barnwell, talking about two big
AFC games, so I'm really looking forward to that. I'm
going to check out Numbers game on your YouTube channel
in the new time. Thank you, Cynthia. Yes, when we
(20:59):
take the super out of Super Wildcard weekend, you can't
say Super anymore. It is just Wildcard weekend. That is
when you know football is back and you'll see Za
Host
Gregg Rosenthal
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