The Lumber Word

Freight is exploding, mills are pulling back, and lumber prices are quietly starting to run.

The lumber market flipped fast this week. Freight costs surged, Canadian mills stepped back from truck shipments, and prices began climbing across species. Ashley, Matt, Gregg, Charles, and Sig break down tightening supply, Southern Yellow Pine strength, and whether this is the start of a spring lumber run or just another head fake in the ...

The lumber market is deep in the **fog of war**. Freight is tightening, trucking rates are jumping, and species spreads are shifting fast. In Episode #159, Ashley, Gregg, Matt, and Charles break down why flatbed capacity is suddenly scarce, how Southern Yellow Pine is catching a bid while eastern spruce softens, and what heavy Doug Fir production in the West could mean for the market. The crew also tackles the big question: **wher...

Kip Fotheringham joins the crew to break down a lumber market that feels coiled.

Canadian shipments are down 30% year-over-year. Inventory on the ground is near multi-year lows. Futures are trading at a discount to cash. And dealers are running lean.

So are we stuck in a trading range… or one buying shift away from a $100 move?

In this episode, the guys debate:

Why majors aren’t aggressively EFP’ing

Government “support” vs. subsidy...

This week, we welcome Thomas Mende back to break down what’s really happening in the lumber market. Eastern Spruce is showing selective discounts (especially 16’s), Southern Pine had midweek block buying, and Western low-grade is tight while higher grades sit. Are we finally near equilibrium? Thomas walks through European production declines, rising log costs, and why tariffs alone don’t drive shipments — economics do. Canadian s...

Is the lumber market quiet… or is it weak? That’s the debate this week on The Lumber Word Podcast. Charles breaks down how SYP is trading — some items are moving, but others are dug in tight. Matt walks through what he’s seeing in Texas as activity starts to open up, and why low-grade SPF is creeping closer to #2 in ways that matter. Gregg zooms out to the macro, unpacking monetary supply and asking the big question: what kind of...

Senior Economist Dustin Jalbert from Fastmarkets is back, and that means it’s time to stress-test the lumber market. We dig into real supply and demand, where we are in the cycle, and what buyers and sellers are actually saying. Were we too bullish the past few weeks? Will the cost of production finally pull capacity, or do higher prices today just set up lower prices tomorrow? Tune in and recalibrate your lumber compass.

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Two familiar faces are back as Bart Charles and Matt Layman join us to break down a lumber market that just won’t quit. Prices across all species are climbing the classic wall of worry—up nearly $100/MBF in the last two months and still catching a bid. With big multifamily jobbers caught short and orders leaking back in, is an $800/MBF print really in play? Take a breather, hit play, and hear what we think—most listeners walk away...

The lumber market keeps showing strength across all species. Gregg and Matt discuss longer-term multifamily projects starting to appear, while Charles breaks down how Southern Pine strength has evolved. We’re seeing tight availability, trucks being chased after purchase, and the same quotes coming back days later — classic up-market signals that surprised many. How long does it last? Tune in to find out.

Fastmarkets Random Length...

This episode of The Lumber Word is dedicated to Scott Adams, who passed away this week. One of the main reasons this podcast exists is because of his influence—his ability to cut through noise, challenge assumptions, and explain complex systems in a way that actually made sense. That mindset is at the core of what we try to do every week: make this podcast useful and give back to the lumber industry. Thanks, Scott.

Gregg, Matt, Ash...

Matt, Gregg, Ashley, and Charles kick off the New Year by breaking down the flow of lumber heading into 2026. From what different species are doing to why listeners of The Lumber Word tend to be a step ahead. The crew digs into market positioning, hedging misconceptions, and where real opportunity lies. If you want a few laughs and to be a smarter, better-prepared lumber trader in 2026, this episode is a must-listen.

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Alex Mead from StoneX joins Gregg, Matt, Ashley, and Charles for a milestone Episode 150 packed with market insight. The group breaks down current lumber conditions, why the new CME SYP lumber contract is positioned to grow in the coming years, and what the Commitment of Traders Report is signaling about the next move. They discuss the wide spread between CME and spot lumber, how buyers across the supply chain are reacting, and wh...

Industry veteran Sig Thoma joins Gregg, Matt, and Ashley to break down a lumber market searching for direction. The crew digs into mill fixed costs, why curtailments are so tough, and where early green shoots may appear heading into 2026. They debate contracts vs. VMI for next year, highlight what sellers are doing, and share the items they’re buying—plus the risk strategies they’re using right now. A fast, insightful episode to he...

In Episode #148 of The Lumber Word, Matt, Gregg, Charles and Ashley sit down with Kyle Little, COO of Sherwood Lumber and current NAWLA Chairman, to talk about staying grateful in one of the toughest markets we've seen in years. Kyle gives an inside look at what NAWLA is working on to improve meetings and member engagement, while the crew runs through a quick market round robin — how short is multi-family, where inventory is hiding...

This week we welcome back one of our favorite guests — and sponsor — Matt Layman. The crew breaks down the strange mood gripping the industry: no curtailments, exhausted traders, Repair & Remodel softening, and customers disappearing into the weeds. We run through every major species, what’s cheap, what’s expensive, and how November expiration and January futures could shape the next move. Matt shares what his members are seei...

Gregg, Matt, and Ashley dive right in this week after a jam-packed NAWLA Traders event in Kansas City. The trio breaks down the mood coming out of the show — who was optimistic, who wasn’t, and what that means for the lumber market heading into year-end. They take a hard look at the November CME lumber expiration, asking whether open interest is too high or if most of it will roll into EFPs as the year winds down. The conversation...

This week on The Lumber Word, the crew welcomes Patrick Teoli, IT specialist and owner of BluCirrus, to tackle all those tech questions that “just unplug it and plug it back in” won’t solve. From system crashes to smarter setups, Patrick keeps it real about how tech meets the lumber world.

Then, things heat up fast in the lumber market discussion — and it’s a wild one. After a sharp CME selloff, fear is rippling through the supply ...

Matt, Gregg, Charles, and Ashley are back on track this week talking about what might be the calm before the next lumber storm. The crew breaks down the quiet market tone and asks the question everyone’s thinking — are we moving from seasonal weakness into a period of strength? Charles thinks many dealers have been “good-dealed to death” over the past 60 days and simply don’t need to buy, while Gregg takes the other side of that t...

Gregg, Charles, and Ashley kick things off with a deep dive into Southern Pine curtailments — and why they still haven’t kicked in. The crew then runs through different scenarios for when Canadian mills might finally shut down more production. Gregg predicts we could see a 7-handle on lumber in Q1 of ’26, while Charles brings up multi-family projects and who’s short that business heading into 2026. Gregg also sparks a conversation...

We jump right in by challenging each other on the ultimate lumber question — what would hurt the most people the most: prices going up or down? From there, it’s a full-on debate about seasonality, market psychology, and whether this “underbought” market is actually overproduced… or maybe it’s the other way around. As usual, we dropped plenty of gems on how each of us navigates the chaos to make money in today’s market. Then the sp...