Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Jordan Goodman joins us. He is America's money answers man,
and of course a bit of a turbulent time with
the tariff situation. Jordan, I guess the situation with China
is going to take a while to work out. But
the pause with everybody else and some so called deals
being worked out seems to have at least calmed things
(00:23):
down a little bit. And it seems that everything now
is focused on China right Well, basically.
Speaker 2 (00:28):
What Trump has done is isolate China. He's basically said, well,
pause or retaliatory tariffs on every country in the world
except China. Seventy five plus countries are going to be
coming to Washington and trying to make deals, and I
think they could make some very good deals on both sides.
They could lower their tariffs to zero, maybe do some
(00:49):
of their non tariff barriers as well. We could lower
our tariffs to zero and have more world trade, which
would be great. And meanwhile, things are escalating dramatically the
moment by moment with China. The latest now is that
China raised its tasks to one hundred and twenty five
percent on US exports to China. We now have one
(01:10):
hundred and forty five percent tarffs on imports from China,
which is pretty much gonna kill trade. Things just don't
make sense at those levels to add more than one
hundred percent of the cost of things. So, just to
give you one example, American farmers are not gonna be
able to sell so it means in a wheat and
corn and so on to China. If it's you know,
(01:33):
when they're adding one hundred and twenty five percent to
the cost of these things, China's gonna buy from Canada
and Argentina and Brazil and other places. That's just one
example of many, many things. The whole relationship between the
two largest economies in the world is just completely broken.
Speaker 1 (01:49):
Now well clearly I think the goal now, as you said,
is to isolate China and sort of force their hand.
And you have talked before about how their economy has
been propped up for years with fake numbers and projects
that nobody lives in or works in. And frankly, they
(02:09):
may not have a large lion there or what you
want to call it, a runway here to land of
this deal.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
Yeah, they are in a weak position, but we have
to understand psychologically the Chinese it's all about saving face. Okay,
that's the main thing, and they will not allow themselves
in their minds to be humiliated, and raising these tariffs
on them is humiliation. And so they're going to hit
us back right as hard as we're hitting them. So
(02:38):
it's not as much a financial thing as as an
emotional we can't get bullied around kind of thing here.
But meanwhile, a lot of people are going to get hurt.
I mean, think of all the US importers who import
all these things from China, which is a huge part
of our economy. They're going to pay one hundred and
forty five percent more.
Speaker 1 (02:56):
I don't think so, right, So yeah, of course, the
other part of that is trying to somewhat decouple the
world from depending on China, since their motives are certainly
questionable at any given time. So we'll see how a
lot of.
Speaker 2 (03:13):
Things they are not produced anywhere else in the world. Sure,
strategic minerals is one example, you know, So it's nice
to say we should decouple, but I mean I've been
seeing stories like American toy stores, like we don't make
toys in America and there's one on the place to go.
(03:33):
They so they'd be glad to buy toys if they're
made in America, but they're not, so you know, it's
going to take years to move all they say. Some countries,
companies try to do the right thing. For example, Apple
moved a lot of its production of iPhones from China
to India and Vietnam, and now we have huge tariffs
on Indian Vietnam. So they did the right thing and
they get punished anyway.
Speaker 1 (03:54):
Well, hopefully those things are going away with some of
these deals that are being negociated by other countries. So
the tariff thing continues to be fluid as the fluid
can be. So let's talk about some other things, Jordan.
Let's talk about inflation. Looks like we actually had negative
(04:14):
inflation growth as far as the rate. The rate actually
decreased them.
Speaker 2 (04:18):
Yeah, so the months before it had been two point
eight percent annual rate and the latest numbers were two
point four percent, which is definitely better than expected. The
big reason is that oil prices have fallen sharply and
gasoline prices and that had a big downward impact. So
that's a good thing. Now, I'm not sure that's going
to last if these tariffs in fact defect take effect
(04:39):
and that's just going to raise the prices of everything.
I mean, say, for example, the China stuff, and we
add one hundred and forty five percent to the price
of everything brought in from China. That's inflation, I would say,
because those prices are going to go up a lot.
So yes, in the short term it was good news,
but I think the markets are looking for the inflation
that's going to be coming for these terrors well.
Speaker 1 (05:01):
And also the wholesale prices came down too, didn't they.
Speaker 2 (05:05):
Yeah, No, I mean the current numbers are getting better.
I mean the feder'serven theory wants to get down to
two percent. Two point four is a lot closer than
two point eight. So that's all good, But I think
the Fed is not in a position to lower interest
rates with all this uncertainty and the potentially inflationary impact
(05:27):
of these tariffs. Now, in the best of all worlds,
if all the other countries in the world lower their
tariffs and we go to zero and we charge them zero,
that'll be a very positive thing for inflation. We won't
have these tariffs, and that'll be great. The only place
we're probably gonna have tariffs with is China, which happens
to be one of our biggest trading partners. So it's
(05:48):
kind of hard to say everything about China because that's
a major, major export.
Speaker 1 (05:53):
It's est we'll see how this all plays out. Of course,
we'll be watching anxiously Jordan. With that said, obviously it's
a turbulent time. Maybe people are looking for so called
safe havens. I know usually we talk about gold, but
what are some things you're looking at.
Speaker 2 (06:11):
Well, gold, in fact, has done very well in this
whole time. It's gone over three thousand dollarsand ounces for
the first time, and it is considered a safe haven
from all these gyrations here. Money market funds are soaring,
and trillions and billions of dollars are coming into money
market funds. They're yielding about four and a half percent
something like that, which is not too bad when your
(06:32):
principle is secure. People putting that. What's been interesting is
that people have thought of bitcoin as another kind of
alternative to gold, a safe haven that has not worked
out this time. Bitcoin has been falling quite sharply, although
there's still a lot of believers in it. But it's
been interesting. Money market funds, treasuries and gold have been
(06:53):
considered the safe.
Speaker 1 (06:54):
Havens here, why do you think this time bitcoin isn't
a beneficiary.
Speaker 2 (07:00):
Some people bought it on leverage and when the price
started going down they had to kind of cover their shorts,
I guess you might say. And so there's just a
lot of speculation in the bitcoin market, but the perception
of it changes. I mean, it got up to about
one hundred and six thousand per bitcoin and now it's
(07:20):
about eighty five or something like that. It went down
even lower. It's just much more volatile and gold and
money market funds are much more stable.
Speaker 1 (07:30):
Jordan. Final thing to talk about here, the big beautiful bill.
Another step toward that happening. The House passed its budget
reconciliation bill and they Sentate had previously done that, so
now they've taken one more step closer. And the important
part of this is they avoid a possible filibuster and
the Senate by doing it this way. So there had
(07:51):
to be some arms twisted because you get that big
crap sandwich, or's some of that in there you don't like,
but you got to look at the big picture instead.
That's what they've done.
Speaker 2 (08:01):
So the House passed bill by two votes. I think
it was two hundred and eighteen to two hundred and
sixteen or something like that. There was almost nothing to spare,
but they did it. A lot of the Freedom Caucus
people who had been complaining got on board because they
said the House side particularly wants large spending cuts by
the federal government, something like one point five trillion, a
(08:24):
lot of which will come from medicaid, about eight hundred
billion from medicaid. The Senate doesn't want to go quite
that far. But yes, they made progress this week. We
weren't sure it was going to happen, but now the
two of them is going to be quite a tussle
to get the Senate and House versions, which are quite different.
To be a greet on one bill. There has been
(08:46):
and there will be no Democratic support for this whatsoever.
This is a completely partisan bill. We'll see if they
can get it through. This is the blueprint because this
has in it the tax cuts, the spending cuts, the
immigration everything. As Trump keeps calling a big, beautiful bill,
this is his entire agenda in one.
Speaker 1 (09:07):
Bill basically, and the other thing, especially with the volatility
right now, they could get that done and provide some
certainty on some of those fronts. That could help also,
maybe during some of these choppy times.
Speaker 2 (09:20):
It would help. It's kind of a separate issue from
the tariff wars, but it would help. I mean, people
are going to be screaming bloody murder about the spending cuts.
They already are screaming, buddy about the spending cuts we've
had from Elon Musk, I mean eight hundred billions from Medicaid.
There's going to be a lot of people who are
not going to have healthcare coverage because of that, and
(09:40):
they're not going to be happy about it. So we'll
see if this can get through, but it's pretty dramatic stuff.
Speaker 1 (09:46):
Money Answers dot Com is the website. You can reach
Jordan via email. It's Jordan at Moneyanswers dot com. Jordan Goodman,
thanks for checking in.
Speaker 2 (09:55):
Alrighty take it, Dodd