Market Mayhem, Nvidia’s Historic Loss & AI’s Disruption

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:03):
Good morning. It's that time again. This is not Dean Greenberg.
Dean Greenberg's missing. I've got Sebastian, I've got Todd, I
got Dylan. I'm Dave, and we're here to bring you
the money matter showing. It's February, and more importantly for me,
it's warming up out there. I'm actually being able to
go outside again and spend a lot of time in
the gym. And you know what that means watching CNN not.

Speaker 2 (00:23):
Good speak was ridiculously cold.

Speaker 1 (00:25):
Good It's been ridiculously cold for a couple of weeks now.
So nice to see the calendar flip to February. Nice
to see some eighty degree tempts coming up this next week.
I'm really looking forward to that. Dean is uh is out.
He had a little sin of surgery early in the week,
and for medical reasons, yeah, exactly said it's it's been

(00:49):
struggling a little bit for Dean not to be in
the office. That's a that's a major deal. He's he's
in the office almost come, no matter what what's going on,
and Uh to see him not in the office, he's
hurting out there. So I think he went to the
doctor on Friday, and things are improving and hopefully he'll
be back next week. And we all miss him, and

(01:10):
we certainly missed his voice on the radio, and we
miss getting to mess around for twenty four minutes while
he does his monologue. We have to actually work for
his twenty four minutes, right, you know? Every week I
kind of look and say, what's the big headline of
the week, And sadly, this week, I think it was
the American Airlines tragedy in Washington, and it really hit

(01:30):
close to home. I think we've all been on those
Regional American Airlines flights, whether I go to Milwaukee, I
go to Milwaukee to visit family in Dallas to Milwaukee,
Dallas to Minneapolis, regional American airlines, So I think we've
all been on those and it was a real tragedy
and what the worst airplane accident in the United States

(01:51):
in twenty three years. I think it's a sixty seven
people perished and really really sad, sad day that happens,
and I guess say it felt close to home town.
I think the big news for the market this week
was deep Seek.

Speaker 3 (02:07):
Yes, Chinese start Deep.

Speaker 1 (02:09):
Seek, Chinese startup company called deep Seek that's d E
E P S e e K. They were. They were
formed about eighteen months ago, two years ago to uh,
it was relatively recently twenty three, twenty four to to
try to explore how they could get this high end
technology without the chips that that we control and that

(02:31):
Biden Intelligence smartly wouldn't send them. And uh, they're trying
to find a work around, if you will. And Deep
Seek came out on Monday right at the open and
said that they'd figured out a way to do AI
without the Nvidio chips, without any of the high end ships.
He used an old, cheap run of the mill chips, right.

Speaker 4 (02:56):
It wasn't the complete old school though. They just used them,
used more of the power. They used about ninety percent
utilization of the chips. And that's the biggest thing.

Speaker 1 (03:04):
And what percentage of the cost?

Speaker 4 (03:06):
Six million dollars they said charge, which is a fraction
of what AI does.

Speaker 1 (03:10):
And of course the whole thing regarding AI has been
the in video ship. You have to have the in
video ship, what forty thousand bucks a piece at least,
and you've got to have those and people have just
been hoarding them and piling them up and now all
of a sudden, well, wait a second, maybe we don't
need those chips.

Speaker 2 (03:28):
Well, I was kind of surprised about the initial like
how dramatic the reaction was, just because we typically look
at Chinese data and take it with a grain of salt,
and I mean, this is Chinese company. How much can
we really trust them?

Speaker 1 (03:41):
And you have to and then we're doubters that that
particular data. Monday and Video lost seventeen percent. Todd, you
mentioned earlier, not on this broadcast, but on another broadcast,
is the biggest one day market cap loss for any
US company in history?

Speaker 3 (03:57):
Yes, in history? Yeah, you know, in the nominal terms,
that's it's how it's gonna be. You know, going forward,
companies get bigger and bigger. One seventeen percent drop, Yeah,
it's a big drop. But when you have that seventeen
percent drop happened in the world's largest company in the
world in terms of market cap, that's how you get
a six hundred billion dollar loss. So in nominal terms,

(04:18):
it's the biggest dollar value loss, not percentage wise.

Speaker 4 (04:21):
Yeah, last year Nvidia had three of the top ten,
well including this one. In the last twelve months, they
had three of the top ten largest drops in a
single day and really one up one hundred and seventy percent.

Speaker 3 (04:30):
Last very volatile stock, as you said many times the show, Dave.
I mean, if you look at the beta, it's I think,
which is the reflection of how much it moves to
the stock market. It's around two, so it's at least
moving double whatever the market's doing. It's a very volatile stock.
It's run up so much so it pulling back seventeen percent,
it's still up over ten x.

Speaker 1 (04:50):
It was so much collateral damage. I was blown away
by the collateral damage. One of those stocks we really
like very if they make the cooling systems that help
these red hot and video chips run, because you run
red hot and it allows them to run without melting down.
It lost thirty percent.

Speaker 3 (05:09):
If people really want an in depth knowledge of what's
going on with this deep sea company, I'd employ you
to go to the CNBC's YouTube page. They they released
a video about this on Friday of last week, and
I watched it Friday afternoon after the market closed, and
I thought I found it very interesting because they said
exactly what the market woke up to on Monday. On Friday.
Avenews CNBC had a video article talking about the fact

(05:33):
that AI in China has caught up to the American
companies potentially, and that they're all the CEOs. When they
were at Davos a couple of weeks ago, when all
the CEOs came together and all the AI revolutionaires were
talking about what's to come, they all were very impressed
by deep Seek's ability to perform just as well as
the other Western AI models, but on a fraction of

(05:54):
the computing power. And they were doing this because they
were on a open source platform, and this open source
platform increased efficiencies.

Speaker 1 (06:04):
Explain that a little bit. You explained it to me,
so explain it to the listener.

Speaker 3 (06:07):
Yeah. So an open source platform is something that doesn't
use just internal talents, so anyone can build on top
of the platform. And another idea of what open sources
is Bitcoin. Bitcoin's and open source technology because developers of
anyone can produce a the idea to the Bitcoin network
saying hey, I want to make an upgrade to the
Bitcoin network, and if everyone agrees to it, it will

(06:28):
implement it. So it's an open source project. There's been
many updates to the Bitcoin network since it's been created,
and it's because of the open source community. Another project
that's open source is Lama of Meta. The Meta AI
model is actually open source, and that's why you saw.
We'll talk more about why Meta got a bid this week,
but that's part of it. They're an open source AI
versus a chat GPT, which is open ais anthropic AI model.

(06:54):
Those are closed source models, so they don't use outside talents.

Speaker 2 (06:57):
It's all internally based.

Speaker 1 (06:59):
So if I done it down, an open source means
they're not working for deep Seek. This could be somebody
working from home correct contributing to this deep sea.

Speaker 3 (07:08):
Building things on top of the platform. And I kind
of lind this to an example of Apple App Store.
The Apple App Store is the infrastructure to how to
build the app, so it can work on Apple foams.
But you can build whatever app you want. It can
be a fitness Pal app, it can be tracking of
your sport, whatever it may be, is your music app.

(07:28):
What you build on the platform is completely up to
the creator. But deep Seek is the foundation. It's allowing
others to create other AI models on top of it,
and it's doing so at a more efficient rate than
the current Western models compared to the technology compared to
the chips that they have available to them because of

(07:48):
the Chip Act. The Chip Act did not allow them
to get the newest and latest and greatest chips. From
the video, they got some h one hundreds, but they
also talked about how they might have gotten some new
chips from South Korea, and the Department of Justice is
looking into this to potentially say that South Korea bottom
and then sold them to China to get around the

(08:09):
the tariff. So they're they're making sure that they didn't
get access to some of these latest and greatest chips
in a backwards way and in innutrial.

Speaker 1 (08:18):
If if you don't need the red hot n Vidio chip,
you certainly don't need variative to cool it.

Speaker 3 (08:24):
I mean that was the prevailing narrative of the market.
You need the Navidia chip because it's the latest and greatest,
and that's the only way you can build the hottest
AI model, the only way. And this flew in the
face of that.

Speaker 1 (08:35):
It did, it did, and so n LR the the
EUTF was down ten percent. Yeah, and when people.

Speaker 3 (08:41):
Need to understand it doesn't mean that people are going
to start using deep seek instead of chat GBT. No
American company is going to build anything on a Chinese
AI model. There's the security risks there are obvious, but
the idea is okay, Well, these AI models here in
the United States, potentially they don't need to be using
the latest and greatest chips. They could be saving money.

(09:03):
They're over spending on this AI development.

Speaker 2 (09:06):
That's why I think like a company like AMD, for example,
I know a lot of chip stocks got absolutely crushed,
and AMD was one of them. I think they lost
about six to seven percent this week. But they were
the sister company to Nvidia in some sort of way,
right a two year low, you're low, but they hung
they hung in there, they hung in there. They caught
a bit better.

Speaker 1 (09:24):
Better than most, better than most. I gotta tell you
the even that the power companies, if we're not going
to need these all of these high power chips, we're
gonna not going to need the power company. So Consolation
Energy down twenty percent, straight down thirty percent, Evranova down
twenty percent, uh energy stock after energy stock.

Speaker 3 (09:43):
Now, and I mean the big one, like you said,
was that VRT For people who don't know, I mean
I lost forty five percent one day. Yeah, it's in
one day, and it was all because VRT, its entire
business model is based on the Blackwell chip.

Speaker 1 (09:55):
Yeah, they're out of business if you don't need the
black Wall chip there, and they're out of bit.

Speaker 3 (09:58):
Right because the current cooling machanisms are fine for the
current chips. It's when you get to these new and
latest and greatest you need specialized cooling. And that's where
VRT specialized. And like you said, with these other utilities
in nuclear, you don't need as much energy if you
don't need these specialized cooling systems.

Speaker 1 (10:16):
The collateral damage was just unbelievable, wasn't it. Yes, And
then video came out the next day and they said
they applaud deep cheek that they thought they had done
a good job of building training wheels for the bicycle,
but if you want to be on in the tour
de front, you have to come see yes, And that's
pretty much their response to that. Now, with that said,

(10:37):
the Nasdaq was down six hundred points on Monday. It
bounced back four hundred points on Tuesday, so finish the
week down one and a half percent.

Speaker 3 (10:46):
Let's before based on that risk of saying the video
had the six hundred billion dollar loss all investments come
with just that risk. So let's talk about the disclosure
real quick.

Speaker 1 (10:56):
Yeah, Hey, I want to say, let's let's finish up
this thought on the deep seak thing had a couple
or just a couple more things in video for the week.
For the weekend, Vidio down sixteen percent. Right, So where
we go with the n video? What do you think,
Dylan buyer? Sealer?

Speaker 5 (11:11):
Hold right now? You hold?

Speaker 4 (11:12):
I mean if it drops a little more than buying,
and like, if you don't have a position, I think
it might be a time to get in.

Speaker 5 (11:17):
But if you have some already, I will just hold it.

Speaker 3 (11:20):
God, I'll talk about after disclosure by sealer hold. I
don't know. I don't know right now?

Speaker 1 (11:26):
How about you? God doesn't have an opinion.

Speaker 5 (11:28):
I'm holding.

Speaker 2 (11:29):
I'm holding where it is. I'm not out adding to
it and I'm not selling it.

Speaker 1 (11:33):
I think that I think there's a possibility that this
whole thing is going to delay orders for them, and
I think there's some downside left for Nvidia, not because
it's not a spectacular company with a spectacular product, but
I really think it's going to delay some of the orders.

Speaker 3 (11:50):
The one thing that's really bullish for in the video
is going to be that Trump's going to be on
their side. Trump doesn't like that when Chinese companies does
something better than American companies, we'll put so he's going
to come out and say this is a bunch of
below America. First, we're behind the video.

Speaker 2 (12:02):
And especially going to get a bit, but especially when
it affects the markets the way that it did. Disclaimer
real quick. The show is sponsored by the Green Brick
Financial Group and you can listen on seven to ninety
KNSD or iHeartRadio. The show discusses different products, investment products
and strategies. Every product and strategy have some type of
an inherent risk. We strongly encourage our listeners to properly
understand the risk to determine whether to buy, sell, or hold.

(12:23):
The show has been on air for over thirty years.
A green Brik Financial Group is registered with SEC and
a member of FINRA and CIPIK. Visit our website at
Greenbrik Financial dot com for some more information.

Speaker 3 (12:32):
So depending on that risk, what we saw is that
on all time high day on Friday when we closed
last week on Monday, we had a two percent drop.
That's only happened two other times since nineteen seventy that
you had a two percent drop following a day where
you close that at all time.

Speaker 1 (12:47):
High, all time high for the S and P five hundred.

Speaker 3 (12:50):
Okay, yeah, so it doesn't happen most of the time,
and but on average when it does happen, it doesn't
really lend a signal of anything. So really, right now
the major top three things to watch that are going
to impact markets moving forward. Next week we have a
whole bunch of earnings reports out of big, big companies

(13:11):
too that are really going to impact markets. We have
economic reports that is going to be labor oriented next
week on Friday, see what labor market says. The Fed
is increasingly saying that they don't care about the labor market,
which is really interesting.

Speaker 1 (13:24):
If that's all they focused on.

Speaker 3 (13:26):
They focused on it for like three or four months,
like that's the biggest thing in the world, and now
they don't care about it anymore. So it's back to inflation.
We got PC on Friday this week and it came
in pretty much in line with expectations. I think it's
a couple of weeks until we get the next inflation numbers,
So it's really going to be earnings and then the
Trump and AI developments, if we have any more AI

(13:46):
developments at a deep seek or any other part of
the sector, as well as if Trump says anything big.
He's started to say some tariffs about Canada. We'll have
to see exactly what that looks at.

Speaker 4 (13:59):
Yes, he's and that's why the markets dropped off on
Friday because they announced that they're going to go implement
them on Saturday. So they've been implemented now when this
is airing, it's twenty five percent tarots on Mexico and
Canada and a ten percent duty on China.

Speaker 5 (14:13):
Is what's being added.

Speaker 2 (14:14):
The duty on China.

Speaker 5 (14:16):
In retaliation.

Speaker 4 (14:17):
It's the Press Secretary says, in retaliation the illegal fentanyl
that have been sourced and allowed to distribute into the US.

Speaker 5 (14:25):
Okay, So that's what their basis.

Speaker 3 (14:26):
He also put tariffs on Canadian oil. I don't know
to what extent, but that's gonna obviously impact oil companies.
A couple oil companies reported this week exce on one
of them, which did I think Friday morning the stock
kind of yawned. I mean, I think it was down
maybe two percent after the report, didn't really do much,
but I'm really interested in the Exxon and Chevron space

(14:46):
with obviously Trump Saint Drill, Baby Drill. The first idea is, okay,
oil price is lower, why would you want to be
in an oil company? But they are the companies that
are going to be producing a lot. I mean, they
have a lot of offshore drilling sites, and those offshore
drilling sites, according to some research, is a cheaper break
even point than the onshore drilling sites.

Speaker 1 (15:08):
On Chevron on Friday reported disappointing and quarterly results. I
didn't look at that cause it wasn't it down seven bucks.

Speaker 3 (15:15):
I didn't look at Chevron.

Speaker 1 (15:16):
I think Chevron had had a rough day on Friday
and Exon down as well. You know, it depends on
where oil settles in. If oil is going to go
down into the fifties, then Exon and Chevron are not
where you're gonna want to have money.

Speaker 5 (15:28):
No, definitely.

Speaker 1 (15:29):
I just I don't see the upside in the oil
stocks at this point.

Speaker 2 (15:32):
But I mean, if you're putting tariffs on Canadian oil,
that would why did you bring prices up, wouldn't it?

Speaker 1 (15:41):
They probably have I'm sure they have drilling operations in Canada.

Speaker 3 (15:44):
I mean, I'm sure that the supply will increase, but
the demand's not going anywhere. And that's what I think
this price action in oil is a little overdone.

Speaker 1 (15:53):
But I think the demand is going somewhere. I mean,
I think the demand is declining in oil. Yes, how well,
you got a couple of things. First of all, a
nuclear if nuclear does get.

Speaker 3 (16:04):
Legs, but how long is that gonna take?

Speaker 1 (16:07):
Depends to go with the s l R, s MR
the smaller ones, right, you can whip those out, but those.

Speaker 3 (16:14):
Aren't even they're not even commercialized yet, right.

Speaker 1 (16:17):
And you have you have more and more electric vehicles
every day.

Speaker 3 (16:20):
But those are still running on a fossil fuel grid.

Speaker 1 (16:22):
That what does that mean?

Speaker 3 (16:24):
You know it runs on oil. Six or six percent
of the grid runs on fossil fuels. Some of that
is obviously natural gas. You have some cold when you
have oil too. A lot of our grid is relying
on oil.

Speaker 1 (16:37):
I just think that the demand for oil is going
to decline and the supply is going to increase, and
I think it's going to mean lower oil prices.

Speaker 3 (16:43):
Yeah, I can't. I can't imagine a world where we
are needing more and more energy that we're going to
use less and less oil.

Speaker 1 (16:50):
Okay, okay, that's fair. That's fair. You want to give
us a summary of what happened, we have done that.

Speaker 2 (16:55):
We kind of weekly numbers. So we have the Dow
that went up thirty basis points three tenths of the percentage.
S and P five hundred went down one percent, the
Nasdaq Tech went down one point six percent, the Russell
two thousand small caps went down one percent, and the
RSP equal weight to S and P five hundred went
down fifty basis points.

Speaker 1 (17:13):
So we've got the year today to dial up four
point seven. Well, the Nasdaq's up one point six. We
haven't seen that in a while.

Speaker 3 (17:21):
I mean the Dow being up this week. I think
we saw it on Monday. We talked about it how
home deep boat lows. Some of these it b which
is the home builders eat have all up around two percent.
So that money was that went out of the video
and the risk assets moved to some of the safe
haven assets. We saw obviously rates go down, so people

(17:41):
were just buying bonds too, but they were definitely moving
into more of the safe side in the equities picture.

Speaker 1 (17:46):
Even the value ETFs beat the Nasdaq and the SMP
both in January. So that's that's indicative of people who
are wanting risk off, still want to be involved in
the market, still feel good about Trump two point zero, right,
but are wondering if maybe the high beta stocks like
an n video or maybe not the place to be.

Speaker 2 (18:09):
Did you see the cybersecurity stocks off of that you
Seek news that they were the real winners of that?

Speaker 3 (18:15):
Oh?

Speaker 1 (18:15):
Really?

Speaker 5 (18:16):
Yeah?

Speaker 1 (18:16):
I mean I missed it completely.

Speaker 2 (18:17):
Cyber ETF I think that day went up about two
point three percent. You had CrowdStrike jumping more than nine
percent on that day, hitting a new all time high.
And then I think Halo Alto also had a pretty
good day.

Speaker 1 (18:27):
Had to put you on the spot. But what would
be the thinking there security concerns?

Speaker 3 (18:32):
I would think, Yeah, I mean if you're building companies
on a deep seek but again you're not going to
be doing that.

Speaker 1 (18:38):
Yeah, but you're saying to get chanticles into the US.

Speaker 3 (18:42):
Right, and you needed some type of protection.

Speaker 1 (18:44):
We saw how that worked out with TikTok, Right, they.

Speaker 3 (18:46):
Would never let that happen. I thought an interesting company
I saw. I just put it on my watch. This
haven't really dug too much into it, but it was
a company specializing in AI cybersecurity.

Speaker 1 (18:57):
AI cyber security.

Speaker 2 (18:59):
Well, I would think that like crowd striking, Palo all
to have something going there. I mean, there's kind of lead.

Speaker 3 (19:04):
I guess you know this says AI Cloud Networking Solutions. Okay, whatever,
that Arrow company, it's it's a net No, No, it's
an actual company. I'm yeah, it's Arista Networks. But I
just thought I thought it was interesting because you're going
to start seeing these companies just throw AI on it,

(19:26):
you know, whether it means that it actually makes it
new or it's just a marketing scheme.

Speaker 2 (19:31):
I mean, you had, like we've talked about on the show.
You had that Quantum energy drink that's that changed their
name to Quantum and then rallied thousand percent.

Speaker 1 (19:39):
Whatever the hot whatever the hot commodity is.

Speaker 3 (19:42):
Well, because we talked about how like Quantum cybersecurity or
our Quantum cloud computing, eventually that that's that would come.
But I don't know how AI would help that space.
You just got to be careful when you see words
or buzzwords, really make sure there's a business model there
before you're investing in something just because of words.

Speaker 1 (20:03):
Yeah, back in the back in the late nineties and
early two thousand, everything was dot com right, and it
wouldn't matter whether you were even involved in computers, your
name had dot Com in it. It was ridiculous. Calm
energy drinks, Yes, yeah, there you go. Yeah, the Federal Way.
By the way, the Federal Reserve did meet this week
on interest rates and decided to leave them the same.

Speaker 2 (20:21):
Jerome didn't really want to talk to No, he didn't.

Speaker 1 (20:23):
Want to say much and ask him about Trump beating
him up, and he's essentially.

Speaker 2 (20:27):
But he has no contact with him whatsoever.

Speaker 1 (20:29):
He had no contact. Wish him the best, you know.

Speaker 3 (20:31):
I looked it up. I was like, could the president
ever get rid of the Federal Reserve and the way
it's structured now, it's very difficult for him to do it. Okay,
the first one the first, So there's been two other
central banks that have been taken out of the United States,
so this is technically the third one. The first and second.
I don't know how I think it's It was basically
a charter because the second one, Andrew Jackson, he just said, yeah,

(20:53):
I'm vetoing the charter. We're not going to keep you on.
And so for the seventy years America had no central bank.
Then the Federal Reserve Act came in and pretty much
entrenched them to the point where the president couldn't do
it by himself. He could appoint new governors that potentially
might make a change from inside the Federal Reserve. But
people don't understand it's Federal Reserve is a private business.

(21:15):
It's completely separate from the from the government, and they
are chartered to handle our money supply. They have a
group of private shareholders, and they have a border reserve
just like a company does, and they report to the
Congress twice a year to talk about how they're doing
on monetary policy and realistic The only way you can
get them removed from the monetary system is to have

(21:37):
a Congress enact at bill, have it past Congress, have
it pass Senate, and the President would have to sign
off on it. So it's pretty entrenched at this point.

Speaker 1 (21:46):
Yeah, I think, you know, if you've got it, you've
got to say though that I think most people would
agree that Paul's done a pretty good job inflation from
nine percent down to to and change, and done it
in a deliberate manner that didn't blow up. I mean,
there was a lot of talk about how there's no
possible way to orchestrate a smooth landing, right, and he did.

(22:09):
He did, so, I give him a lot of credit
for that. Uh. They left their key interest rate in
check on Wednesday, they said the economy continues to expand
at a solid path. God you said they took their
focus off of their jobs market, which has been kind
of their cyber focus.

Speaker 3 (22:25):
For They said that they couldn't read into it because
of the immigration.

Speaker 1 (22:28):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (22:29):
Yeah, and so it's like we don't know how to
necessarily impact like how much this is going to impact labors,
and there's they said labor is not a significant contributor
to inflation, So why did they care about it in
the first place.

Speaker 1 (22:42):
Yeah, they cared about it all they did.

Speaker 3 (22:44):
So, I don't get it.

Speaker 1 (22:46):
We saw the first look at how is it not?

Speaker 3 (22:48):
That's what was it not said? When Q four.

Speaker 1 (22:53):
GDP came in a little softer than expected two point
three percent, Again, that's rear view mirror. Who cares? I mean,
how are you going to react to what happened the
last three months? Tell me what's going to happen the
next three months. Let me react to that or the
next six months. Todd's hid PCE up two point six percent.
That was writ in line with expectations. I think by

(23:16):
any measure you want to pick, the market is richly valued.
And when you have a richly valued market and you
have a little bit of a one off, like we
did on Monday morning with Deep Feek, there can be
some gut wrenching decline. We offer risk analysis tools, We

(23:40):
offer lots of ways to help you identify what your
tolerance for risk is and we'd be love to talk
to you about that. So give us a call. Come
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there that has not taken advantage of the free financial plan,
we'd love to have you do it. It's no obligations,

(24:01):
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risk talent tolerance, or you want to review your current
portfolio with somebody else and tell you what your risk
score is there and see if it lines up with
what your tolerance for risk is. We'll be back with

(24:21):
the next segment of the Money Matter Show right after
this message. Welcome to February.

Speaker 3 (24:28):
Welcome back to the Money Matter Show. My name is Toglik.
I'm here with Dylan Greenberg, David Sherwood, and Sebastian Borscini.
This week, the big news was around deep Seek, a
company out of China that had the ability to figure
out how to use chips efficiently that Western companies could not.
But the real idea was that they're an open source company.
And another company that has an open source AI model

(24:49):
is Meta. And Meta was a big contributor because even
though most risk assets fell off a cliff on Monday Test,
almost all tech assets were selling off, Meta held in there.
Apple was another one because all but yeah, Meta was
the real one. I mean that open source platform is
super interesting. On top of that, Meta's integrated already into

(25:11):
social life. You already have Facebook, you already have WhatsApp,
you already have Instagram. All these apps are very easily
integrated into AI, where all of a sudden, your comments
you could just put an AI filter, your pictures, your videos,
your anything you're posting can be AI.

Speaker 2 (25:26):
But I like that you mentioned WhatsApp because it's like
it's global. A lot of people internationally use WhatsApp. But
I don't see how you could use AI and WhatsApp.
It's just a messaging tool.

Speaker 3 (25:35):
Absolutely, you could use I'm texting my mom a make
this sound like I love her? Okay, I don't know
how to say.

Speaker 2 (25:48):
I mean, it's a global Yeah, that's a good point.

Speaker 4 (25:49):
App So you could do it for the real time translations.

Speaker 2 (25:52):
That's a good point.

Speaker 1 (25:53):
Absolutely, yeahs use it for You know, we talk. There's
a lot of different firms offering financial services, and we
like to distinguish ourselves because of the service. We think
our service is next to none. And to that end,
my buddy Sebastian, you want to tell us a little
story about what happened last week.

Speaker 2 (26:15):
Yeah, Basically, you know, we've been going through this process
of a advisor, connects portals, new setups, and we had
a client's not going to give his name, but he's
an older client and he'd lived at what a care
home and he was having the biggest trouble ever trying
to get logged into his computer. And I knew exactly
what was going on. He had an old bookmark that
sent him to the old websites. Basically, I went to

(26:36):
his care home and set it up for him and
I don't think that most advisors out there are going
and doing that.

Speaker 1 (26:42):
You drove from Camelon River to and he lives West.

Speaker 2 (26:44):
Yeah, I was on. After about a thirty minute phone
call with trying to get him set up, I said,
you know what, I'm just gonna come over.

Speaker 1 (26:50):
You got in the car, call to the guy's house
and helped him get set up so he could view
his account online that service. Yeah, it's amazing. It's amazing
financial yep.

Speaker 3 (27:02):
Well let's go back to Meta because when they did
report their earnings, they were great as well. I mean,
that's what sorted them off to a new all time high.
They finished the week up about six percent. They're over
US seven hundred dollars if I mean, it's absolutely amazing,
just crazy. You remember that stock just at one hundred dollars.

Speaker 1 (27:19):
I remember was that one hundred dollars. It looked like
a car heading towards the brick wall at about eighty
miles an hour. At Nobody wanted anything to do with.

Speaker 3 (27:27):
Spending on on on virtual reality. The company is gonna
go out of whatever.

Speaker 1 (27:32):
My year.

Speaker 4 (27:33):
Yeah, that first year they spend nine billion dollars on
or they lost nine billion dollars on virtual reality. Everybody
thought Zuckerberg has lost his touch and was crazy. And
the stock I think was what.

Speaker 3 (27:47):
Hundred dollars.

Speaker 5 (27:49):
When he was talking about that.

Speaker 3 (27:51):
Yeah, at the end of twenty two in October, they were.

Speaker 4 (27:53):
Talking about how it was crazy overvalue a three hundred
dollars a share too, just keeps going.

Speaker 1 (27:58):
Kind of give it away. Yeah, every now and then.
You I remember when Google came public, Right, I've been
in the business that long. When Google came public, it
was shortly after the dot com bubble head burst. You
couldn't give it away. They can't lower in the price.
They were going to bring it at one hundred, and
then it was ninety five, then it was ninety finally
eighty five. They found enough people interested in buying it
to get it public. And a heck of a time

(28:19):
bringing Google public because nobody wanted anything to do with
that darn computer stuff.

Speaker 3 (28:25):
And and Zuckerberg was on the Rogan podcast a couple
weeks ago and he said, how many people.

Speaker 1 (28:30):
Do you.

Speaker 3 (28:32):
Use your service? This is meta cover and it was
like two billion people meta? Yeah, Facebook, twenty.

Speaker 5 (28:39):
Of the world's Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp.

Speaker 3 (28:42):
Yeah, all three that's the metaph met.

Speaker 1 (28:44):
What appened is more popular internationally.

Speaker 4 (28:47):
It's it's huge for international. Yeah, a lot of when
I leave the country, I use What'sapple lot, but I
don't use it within the US.

Speaker 2 (28:53):
It's like a text messaging tool.

Speaker 1 (28:55):
Yeah, my daughter was at a wedding in Mexico and
I got what app app to communicate with her, and
I was able to communic easily with her on what's App.
I guess I probably couldn't have texted her.

Speaker 2 (29:07):
Well, maybe your provider gives it to you. But at
the same time, a lot of providers charge you for
that service right to text internationally or call internationally, so
you could just stoot.

Speaker 3 (29:15):
Yeah, you go over country lines. Technically you're in a
different dealing zone.

Speaker 1 (29:20):
I guess with that. With that said, though, we have
a client in Brussels, Belgium, and she has an Arizona
cell phone number and I call it and she answers, yeah,
you can have international. It blows me away.

Speaker 3 (29:31):
You can still do that?

Speaker 1 (29:32):
Well, no, it blows me away. I mean you guys
probably don't remember long distance. I mean you used to
have to go through all kinds of things to call
somebody internationally.

Speaker 5 (29:40):
Wasn't a crazy expensive, too.

Speaker 1 (29:42):
Crazy expensive, fifteen digit phone numbers. You know, it was
just unbelievable if you could do it at all.

Speaker 2 (29:47):
Would you do, like buy those cards or something.

Speaker 1 (29:49):
No, it was on your phone bill. You get your
phone bill. It looked a lot like your mortgage. You know,
if you had somebody, you had somebody overseas. Yeah, it
was very expensive in a long distance. What happened a
long distance? I remember your phone bill used to have
the long distance charge down. There's no long distance anymore.

Speaker 3 (30:05):
Yeah, you sounds sad.

Speaker 1 (30:08):
Fantastic you want that, No, it's fantastic. Hey, good news
for our folks out at Raytheon new all time high
on Tuesday reported, Uh, you always talked about Raytheon a
lot and thought, okay, if Trump really can calm the
world down, even if you can't calm himself down, calm

(30:30):
the world down? Right? What does that mean? Less business
for Raytheon? And what what they reported in their quarterly
report is they're spending a They're getting a lot of
revenue from number one restocking Israel. That's a duh, right,
I mean that Israel has shot off a lot of
Patriot missiles over the last year and a half. Or
so they've got to restock those. So that's number one.

(30:51):
Number two is restocking Ukraine, who has also used a
lot of Patriot missiles. But the third one I hadn't
really even thought about is Western Europe, a lot on
the border with Russia, a lot of Patriot Mischill's being
put in place in Finland.

Speaker 2 (31:05):
And did you see what they had to say about
their guidance moving forward anything?

Speaker 1 (31:09):
No.

Speaker 2 (31:09):
The only reason I asked was because Lucky Martin also
reported and they dropped about ten percent because of their
horrible guidance.

Speaker 1 (31:15):
Yeah, different business, a little different business, similar but different.
But Raytheon a new all time high. I would like
to see that.

Speaker 3 (31:23):
And also Raytheon might benefit if they do nuclear production,
nuclear warheads, anything. Trump might want to increase the stockpile,
show some muscle potentially. Maybe Trump's even like We're going
to create an iron dome here in the US or something.

Speaker 1 (31:39):
You know. I think Raytheon is is kind of the
quintessential defense company, right, It's kind of like the Baltimore
Ravens of the of the of the of that world.
I mean, they're they're they're all about defense.

Speaker 3 (31:51):
I wasn't a bad analogy not bad. I wasn't bad,
thank you.

Speaker 1 (31:56):
Not bad anyway. Anyway, it seems like there's a lot
more people out there playing defense than offense. And the
people playing defense are the ones with the money. The
people playing offense are the the you know, hummaus.

Speaker 2 (32:09):
And because you have to, they're back into the corner.

Speaker 1 (32:11):
Yeah yah, the third world guys who are just trying
to upset the second world.

Speaker 3 (32:15):
You know, defense with championships.

Speaker 1 (32:17):
Look look, look, look good. Interesting week for gold. New
all time high for gold up twenty nine dollars on
the week to twenty eight to eight. I think it
hit twenty eight thirty five.

Speaker 2 (32:27):
Was it up that day?

Speaker 1 (32:29):
Yeah, I was. I was in a jeweler on Thursday
and this is one of the top jewelers in talent,
and I was talking about and he said, you know what,
we don't get it. We don't understand how or why
gold is doing this. And the only thing, and it
used to move inversely with the US dollar. It's not
doing that anymore. It's just going up. And it used

(32:51):
to be because it concerns about inflation. Inflation is coming down,
so it's not that is it concerns about war? Well,
Trump's kind of trying to wind down the war. So
it's not that I think it's international buyer. I think
you're right, Todd. I think out there is internationally. Maybe
it's one country, maybe it's a dozen pountries.

Speaker 3 (33:12):
It's got to be the the brick countries. They don't
like the dollar. So if they could do anything that
shows that gold is going up against the dollar, it's
probably not hurting them. You know, more and more people
say I'd rather use the gold than as my transaction,
and then hopefully over time this is their idea. Hopefully
over time the dollar becomes less value, well, less used

(33:33):
in terms of daily transactions.

Speaker 1 (33:35):
I think it gives that your thought process there on
gold being bought by international countries of more validity. Is
gold always used to be a fraction of platinum. Platinum
is far more rare than gold, and platinum always used
to trade higher than gold, fifteen twenty five percent higher

(33:56):
than gold. Always it's now one third the price of gold,
platinum one third the price of gold. Wow, And it's
always been more expensive than gold because it's more rare
than gold. And we'll talk again talking to the jeweler
about he said it just we don't get it, you
understand it, and and that would be.

Speaker 3 (34:16):
Someone's doing it for strategic reasons, yes, for monetary yes,
game reasons.

Speaker 1 (34:21):
Yes. I think you're absolutely right on that. And so
how high it goes? Who knows? Oil finished a week
down two dollars to twenty five cents seventy two for another.

Speaker 3 (34:29):
You know, part of that space that is affecting gold
is part of the rates, you know, And I think
that if you have rates come back down, potentially you
don't have gold as much. I mean if when rates
come down, the risk asset picture gets more attractive, at
least historically.

Speaker 1 (34:45):
Yeah. Well again, it's moving inversely. It's like a teeter totter.
Right when gold would go up, the dollar was going down,
and dollar goes down because interest rates are going down.
So as interest rates go down, gold goes up. Advice
you know, it's been doing the aposto option.

Speaker 3 (35:00):
When we've been looking at TLT for a while here,
and this is a it's a really interesting space to
look at it. I mean, it's eighty seven on TLT.
Another place PLT is the I shares ETF for the
twenty to twenty five year treasury twenty yeah plus yeah, yeah,
And then another one we like is the eed V,

(35:22):
which is the twenty to thirty year bond, which has
a little more fluctuations dependent on the interest rates how
they move, so we I don't think rates are going
much higher than where they are now. I think if anything,
five on the ten year is going to be the
max if it can somehow get there again. But there's
gonna there's a huge resistance level there that I think
it will like it. That'll be the top and something.

Speaker 1 (35:43):
Now at the end of another segment, we'll be back
with the third segment of The Money Matter Show. Thanks
again for joining us on this warmer Sunday morning.

Speaker 2 (35:51):
Welcome back to the Money Matter Show. My name is
Sebastian Borsini here with Todd click Junior, Dylan Greenberg, and
David Sherwood.

Speaker 5 (35:57):
A really fatal week those of you just tuning in.

Speaker 4 (36:00):
Yeah, a lot of stuff happen, like just market wise,
ends us all over, you know, with the plane crash
and everything like that. And then to end Friday you
had the announcement of the terrorists being put in place
on Saturday.

Speaker 5 (36:12):
It's a lot going on.

Speaker 3 (36:13):
If you ever miss anything, you just go to our website.
We have all the resources there where you can access
our YouTube page for weekly market updates. Our TV shows
we are weekly TV shows on KVOA Sunday morning and
Sunday Night after the News on NBC. We also have
the Saturday radio shows constantly. People love to hear those.

(36:34):
We've bringing a lot of appointments from people on the
Saturday listeners. We always had our flagship show on Sunday
eight to ten, but if you ever miss it, just
go to our podcast Paige or whatever your favorite podcast
is type in Money Matters with Dean Greenberg. You can
listen to it on demand.

Speaker 4 (36:48):
Yeah, the Saturday shows are more overall financial planning, macroeconomics,
and longer term because we record them. The Sunday show
is more current events. Yeah, obviously recorded every Friday, but
they all have a lot of information, especially with that
financial plan that we always talk about because we find
a lot of benefit from a lot of use out
of the financial plan, helping people do different scenarios with

(37:09):
what they're trying to look for. We've been doing a
lot of roth conversion scenarios about whether it makes sense,
whether it doesn't make sense, how much to do. We
can give you a general idea Obviously, if you want
a specific number with how much to do in your
roth conversion, you gotta get with the CPA. We're not CPAs.
So it's helpful though to get an idea of if
it's even something you should look into, which recently we've

(37:30):
had a lot of people come in and talk about
roth conversions and end up doing them, because what we
said is taxes are quite low right now, and if
you do them now, you don't know what they're gonna
be later on, so it's benefits there. It's also a
big thing if you're looking to leave money for your heirs,
it might not help you so much now because you're
gonna pay the taxes on it. You're gonna have to
deal with the taxes. If you want to leave money

(37:51):
to your errors and you have that whole bequest that
you want to leave, it might be something to look
into of doing a roth conversion because then they don't
have to pay taxes on it when they inherit it
later on.

Speaker 1 (38:00):
It's kind of like a living trust. It's a great
idea that gives you no current benefit.

Speaker 2 (38:05):
Speaking of trust exactly, and speaking of trust wills and
Saturday shows, Jonathan Sabilia or estate Planner here eight or
eight thirty am. We toggle between the two time slots
on Saturdays. If you want to listen to his estate
planning show, he does it with mel Greenberg and they've
been getting a lot of good comments on that showst
couple of.

Speaker 1 (38:23):
Weeks, bitcoining down about three percent.

Speaker 3 (38:26):
We'll go back to bitcoin just in a second. I
just recently completed the Trusted Charitable Advisors program that is
put on through the Jewis Philanthropies of Southern Arizona. And
this is a program that they modeled off of the
jp Jews Philanthropies Network in San Diego, and it's a
network where they get together with attorneys CPAs, estate planning attorneys,

(38:48):
and financial and wealth management planners to get an idea
of how to efficiently give to charities. There's a lot
of people, especially normally the high networth ultra high networth,
but even just the regular day person that wants to
have some type of charitable giving as part of either
their living plan or their estate plan. And a wealth
manager actually does have the ability to help you out

(39:08):
with this. There's a lot of tools donor advise funds, endowments.
The differences between the two how they can be used
for you. There's obviously qualified charitable distributions we can talk about.
Out of your erais how to use your irays efficiently
in terms of charitable giving. And if you are even
using your irays to live on and also want to
do charitable giving, there's a way to do that in

(39:30):
a more efficient matter. So there's a lot of strategies
that people just don't know because of a lack of education.
And that's one of the reasons I took this course
and I'm now able to help. I have the information
and put you into the right hands to get that.
Not only the vetting of the of the nonprofits done
for you, so finding which nonprofits are going to do

(39:50):
what they say they're going to do, actually looking into
their books, looking into their programs, but also finding the
vehicles to do it the most efficient way possible, how
we can donate and have it right off, and things
like this. It's very complex when you when you get
into us. I'm not going to talk about any examples
on the air, but if you have a charitable inclination
that you won't even want to do while you're living

(40:11):
ten percent a year whatever it may be, or you
know that you want to have an x percentage left
to a charity, give us a call. That's set of
a financial plan to make sure we're doing that as
efficient as possible.

Speaker 1 (40:22):
I had met with an an older gall in her
eighties last week and she said that she had given
had left much of her estate to charities, and had
left her daughter enough that her daughter would be just fine.
And she says, plus, I'm gonna I'm going to sign
the house over to her in the next couple of weeks.
I said, no, you're not. No, you're not, because that's

(40:42):
a gift. That's a gift. You can give us eighteen
thousand dollars a year, right, that's a gift. That's gift
tax on that. If you just wait till you die,
the capitol gain completely goes away. She gets the house
without any tax. Do not do not gift the real
estate to anyone.

Speaker 3 (40:59):
Or even a highly appreciated stock, highly high appreciated us
that you should not be donating, especially if you're close
to the end of life. It does not make any sense.

Speaker 1 (41:08):
You guys were talking a minute ago about the Roth conversion,
and I had a new client come in. He has
intentionally had no income the last two years. He quit
his job, had done very well, had plenty to live on,
and wanted to kind of charge a new course for
his life. So he had two years of no income
and he came in to me to have his assets

(41:28):
managed by us. And he has a large roth ira
and a large but a larger traditional ira. What an
absolute perfect time. And that's something that would have been
uncovered with the financial plan that he never even had
heard of, never even thought about. And had you guys
done a financial plan for him, had he come in

(41:50):
for the free financial plan, he would have saved himself
a ton of money.

Speaker 3 (41:53):
Yeah, many people don't realize that the opportunity until it's
too late.

Speaker 1 (41:57):
Didn't even know it existed. He never heard of it
because I asked him by it. Why have you not
done that? He goes, I have no idea what you've
been talking about.

Speaker 4 (42:05):
In this sense, there's no limit to how much you
can convert. It's just what taxes do you want to
pay on the money. Yeah, so if you want to
go up to a certain tax bracket, then that's the limit.
But ipothetically you could convert your whole traditional ira.

Speaker 1 (42:15):
Again, there's no current benefit to you it's for the
people that are coming behind you.

Speaker 4 (42:20):
There could be current benefits depends age. Yeah, if you
retire young, there's benefits to you. If you're doing it
late sixties seventies, like right before raw your R and
D start, not so much benefit to you, more for
your errors. If you retire and you're doing it in
the early sixties, then that's more benefit.

Speaker 3 (42:36):
I think you need at least fifteen years of tax
free growth to really say that you can make up
the case for the text on the front end.

Speaker 1 (42:44):
Yeah. When I when the broth first came out, and
I've been around long enough, I remember that when first
came out, my first visit was to a state planning attorney,
and then to an accountant, and then to another accountant
trying to figure out where does this make sense? And Todd,
they weren't quite as a strangergy you should fifty five.
Beyond fifty five, it makes no sense. Things have changed.

(43:05):
Life expectancy is longer now, and I think your point's valid.
If you've got fifteen years, that's beautiful.

Speaker 3 (43:12):
Yeah, I mean you can normally make up for there.

Speaker 1 (43:15):
Were you at. Your suggestion is if you're in your
forties or fifties, it could make some sense to do that.

Speaker 3 (43:20):
Yeah, I mean it, Just think about it. If you
were in your forty forties right now, would you rather
be contributing to a wroth or a four one K?

Speaker 1 (43:28):
That's easy, yeah, right.

Speaker 3 (43:29):
So if you have room in your income while working
or in your forties fifty, and you retire early somehow, right, Yeah,
then of course you should take advantage of it, because
if you had earned income, you would go into the roth.

Speaker 1 (43:39):
Anyways, I guess I never really thought a conversion made
any sense until you were retired.

Speaker 3 (43:44):
Well, of course it doesn't, because most of the time
you're in your highest income brackets while you're working. Sure,
some people have one off scenarios where it's you know,
maybe you got a disability that's not taxed, so you
technically have earned income but it's not taxed, So then
you have a weird one off year where you can
maybe do a rock and version. For the most for
the most part, it's yeah, you have to wait till
you retire because if you're looking at the analysis, your

(44:06):
income is going to fall off a cliff normally when
you retire. From a taxable standpoint, you.

Speaker 1 (44:11):
And you know, I talk to you, talk to your
tax prepared, talk to your accountant about it, and see
if it makes any sense. Just say, hey, does the
rock conversion make any sense?

Speaker 5 (44:18):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (44:18):
But es, the easier first step is just to come
in and do the financial plan, because it's very easy
to look on it from a cash flow standpoint. If
it's even gonna work, even bring up the ideas of
the accountants. Yeah, and we're free. The accountant may not be,
so come in do it for free. See if it
even makes sense to ask the question, and then you
can go from there.

Speaker 1 (44:37):
You're saying you might pay an hourly rate to talk
to the accountant, and you don't. You don't talk to us.
It literally is completely free. It's a risk we take
in the hope that you like us and want to
do business with us. If you don't, you don't. Yeah.

Speaker 3 (44:50):
I mean there was three different people this week that
I told rock and versions made no sense.

Speaker 1 (44:55):
For Yeah, it just didn't. Yeah, sometimes it doesn't. I
mean I've said it in on nose Wood Toad and
then yes, sometimes it just makes no sense. Let's talk
a little bit about bitcoin. It's all everybody was talking
about it these days.

Speaker 3 (45:06):
Yeah, Yeah, bitcoin is that one hundred and two thousand,
it closed. Uh, well, it never closes, but you know
what I mean, one hundred and two thousand. It looks
like right now it's really going to just be following
risk assets wherever it wants to go. I have, based
on what I'm looking at it, I feel like it's
just gonna be another week of range trading and then

(45:26):
maybe a week after that we'll see some price movement.

Speaker 1 (45:29):
It just seems like the tailwinds right now for bitcoin
are pretty strong, and it's a completely risk asset. No
one has any idea, No one has any idea what
it's worth.

Speaker 3 (45:41):
I was talking to a client and I feel like
I certainly think there's one more push left in bitcoin,
maybe one hundred and twenty five, maybe one hundred and fifty.
But the time horizon on this thing is so difficult
to gauge because they might go to one twenty five,
one to fifty and then six months later got a fifty.
So if you don't perfectly get in and get out,
you might end up a year later down thirty. But

(46:01):
at one point during that year you were up one
hundred percent. And then that's the volatility of bitcoin that
I want people to understand, like, just because you go
in at one hundred, it might go to one fifty.
You're feeling great about yourself, it can easily go from
one fifty to fifty. And it's done this many times,
so you can't Like. That's why I like these bitcoin
etf products that are coming out with the downside protection
of Like, yeah, if if you want three or five

(46:22):
percent of your portfolio with a max downside of twenty percent,
knowing that that's obviously a very volatile asset, but you
can't lose more than twenty right, make up to fifty
five sixty. That's a better risk scenario to be playing,
to get your feet wet in the scenario then to
go one hundred percent naked into this underlying position that
is extremely volatile and if you've never had any experience

(46:43):
with it, it could put a very sour taste in
your mouth, even if it's three five percent of your portfolio.

Speaker 1 (46:48):
Yeah. Yeah, I've got a friend at the hike with
on Tuma Moock and he said, there isn't a lot
of bitcoin being traded. Apparently a lot of it's pledged
or whatever. I don't know what the term is.

Speaker 3 (46:59):
I don't know about why he would, He says, I
know the volume is he was on an early.

Speaker 1 (47:06):
Bitcoin guy he's got he was buying it at fifteen
hundred dollars.

Speaker 3 (47:10):
Yeah. I mean you can see the daily volume on
bitcoin on any chart. Doesn't look like it's gone off
a cliff.

Speaker 1 (47:16):
No, all right, Anyways, it's it's the thing we want
to leave you with. Is is it a It's a
risk asset. Everybody seems to be interested in all of
a sudden and asking questions about it, but it's it's
a highly risky asset. And we'll be back with the
second half of the Money Matter Show. Thanks again for
joining us. We'll be right back.

Speaker 4 (47:33):
Welcome back to the second hour of the Moneymatter Show.
I'm Dylan Greenberg here with Dave Show with Sebastian Boorsini
and Todd Glick. For those of you just tuning in,
the Dow was up point three percent for the week.
The SMP five hundred was down one percent, the NAZAC
was down one point six percent, the Rustle two thousand
was down one percent, and the equal way to SMP
five hundred was down to half a percent.

Speaker 5 (47:54):
It was of aut a week.

Speaker 4 (47:55):
There was a lot going on deep Seek caused a
lot of chaos on Monday, which is the AI from
China that said they could do it cheaper. They like,
they showed that they could do it cheaper than all
these companies in the US, and that caused a lot
of sell off between Nvidia, between Broadcom, all the chips.
Just had a rough day, but then they bounced back
the next day. And then we had the American airlines

(48:15):
crash that just it wasn't really market no response, but
it's just something that happened.

Speaker 5 (48:21):
That's sad.

Speaker 4 (48:22):
It was a busy week with a lot of things.
And then to end the week, Trump announced tariffs that
he's talked about during his campaign and he's making good
on his promise. He's gonna do twenty five percent on
Canada and Mexico and ten percent on duty from China.
And then, like we were saying, the first hour is
gonna be tariffs on Canadian oil as well. I'm sure

(48:42):
there's more terrorists to come. So the market had a
big sell off at the end of Friday to pretty
much put the markets into the right for the.

Speaker 1 (48:49):
Week, and we did see a movement away from risk
ass that's Bitcoin dropped a few thousand dollars. The Nasdaq
was the leader to the downside, the equal I'm sorry,
the value ETFs where the Procter and Gambles of the
world did better than the NASDAC or the S and
P in January. January's historically a good month. We finished

(49:12):
up two point seven. That's good, right, Yeah. The market
is ritually valued, however, and I think we're going to
have a I think we're due for a five percent
or so pull back, and I think they're probably going
to happen in February with the big.

Speaker 4 (49:23):
Drops too from the tech companies. It's like for the
chip companies especially, it's like those present buying opportunities. But
if you don't want to try and pick which one
hit the floor, if you don't think on video or
rock hom or something like that, there's always ETFs. And
you got one that's called Socks's SOXX that has a
lot of those chip companies in there. So if you're trying,
if you've been trying to get your feet wet in

(49:43):
the chip industry, but it's been hard because all I
do is go up. You don't know when the pullback
would come. Then starting a position in an ETF is
a good way to get familiar with it, with actual
skin in the game.

Speaker 5 (49:54):
Those are always good ideas.

Speaker 3 (49:55):
And if people are really trying to understand what's going
on with this deep seat, go to that CNB YouTube page.
On Friday last week, they released a video. It'll explain
exactly why the market reacted the way it did this
week perfectly, which.

Speaker 5 (50:09):
Is great timing. You watched that last Friday and then
on Monday that happened.

Speaker 1 (50:12):
Yeah, was on top of it. It was unbelievable.

Speaker 3 (50:15):
They were.

Speaker 1 (50:15):
Yeah, it's just in a nutshell. If you can get
accomplished AI with less expensive chips, then you don't need
in video. And if you don't need a video, then
you don't need the people to cool the video ships.
You don't need all the extra energy that the video
ships take. You don't need of this stuff.

Speaker 3 (50:35):
Six hundred billion dollars wiped out in a day, largest
in history.

Speaker 1 (50:38):
Six hundred billion dollars. That's me speaking of tech. Let's
talk thin air. Yeah, yeah, we're vanished into somebody's pocket
to a short Yeah, someone's pucket. Let's talk a little
bit about Apple. We last week we pointed out that
Apple was far and away the worst performing stock in

(50:59):
the Dow excuse me, for this year three times four
times as bad as any other stock. At the end
of last week and coming Monday, the stock's up five
points or what eight or nine points? Is up another
eight or nine points. Erniest came out on Thursday night,
and I thought was somebody knows what's going to be

(51:19):
reported here. When they actually did report, the report was
not as bad as some had feared. They're showing growth
in areas like India. They're showing strong growth in their
services sector, which is more than off setting their decline
in iPhone sales. And the stock rallied at the open

(51:41):
on Friday and then gave it all up and then
some and stock did finish the week up probably three
or four percent for the week. You have to continue
to ask yourself, though, what's the catalyst we talked about
this last week where they haven't come up with a
new product in quite a while, are reworking some of
their older products, you know, the newest iPhone, the newest

(52:03):
I watch, Apple Watch and I'm sorry I always call
it I Watch. Yeah, the vision pros gone, and nobody
seems to care. Apparently nobody wanted to sit around on
the couch with the goggles on and pretend they were
somewhere else. I don't know. It seemed like an odd
concept to me when I came out.

Speaker 3 (52:20):
The catalyst is gonna be probably five years away, but
it's gonna be those same goggles. But then those glasses
you're wearing on your face right.

Speaker 1 (52:27):
Now, regular eyeglasses.

Speaker 3 (52:30):
Yeah, if you can do everything like that in your glasses,
you'll take.

Speaker 1 (52:37):
Yeah, that's that's for younger people. I'm not interested in.
I don't want to have. It's like my car. I
don't want this speedometer and all that flashing on my windshields.

Speaker 3 (52:45):
So like, imagine you're working, it says Stephanie's calling you.
You just say answer and you talk. No one can
hear your conversations in your air.

Speaker 1 (52:56):
Yeah, no one hear my conversation now because everything my
hearing age. It drives my wife crazy. I'll be looking
at something on my phone laugh at my house.

Speaker 3 (53:06):
Well that's the only thing I can see that's really
going to be a new technology that Apple can create.
Other than that, the ecosystem seems so built out.

Speaker 1 (53:15):
It does it does? I think that you probably have
some upside if they can get this Apple Intelligence up
to speed. I think that's possibly a catalyst.

Speaker 3 (53:24):
Yeah, but I just how are people going to use it?

Speaker 1 (53:28):
Yeah? Yeah, no, I got to see it. It's got
to be useful. It's like the vision pro, like the goggles.
You know, people have to want it.

Speaker 3 (53:36):
Yeah, I mean even when I you know, I love
chat GBT. I use it for a lot of things.
But I'm a very early adopter. I'm not someone the
most people aren't using it the way I'm using it.
It will take five or ten years for the masses
to use that. So that's what I think about AI
with the Apple. Even if they get the AI involved,
most people won't even know what to do with it.

(53:57):
They're just gonna be like, oh, this is cool. But
I don't know unless it's very easy to use.

Speaker 1 (54:01):
I write a monthly update that we send out to
clients and post on our website. You can you can
see it by going to Greenberg Financial dot com and
one of the it's it's right there. We do too,
me and Dylan. Yeah, you read all of our articles.
Oh well no, the whole newsletter is posted there, right.

Speaker 3 (54:17):
I know, we all do articles. Do you do your
own article? Todd doesn't talking.

Speaker 1 (54:22):
About I'm just I'm making a point here. I'm not
I'm not. I'm not dissing you guys. Okay, I love
you guys. You're very talented. Okay, but I write this
newsletter about the market. And and Todd came in today
to help me, help me out on Friday, I'm sorry,
and helped me out, and he was gonna drop it
into chat gd g P D see whatever.

Speaker 6 (54:40):
It is GDP gross domestic Product GDP no, g g
P T right g P t right dropped in there
and the it reworked how much things And I'm looking
at it, going, you really think you're fine of me,
don't you.

Speaker 1 (54:56):
I actually resented a little bit, actually presented it a little
I'm looking at it going, no, that's not the way
you shay, and it's you know, I'm sorry, but I'm
going to do it this way. Yeah. But it's an
interesting technology. And some of the things you were showing
me last week about some of the videos and things.

Speaker 2 (55:14):
Well that's what I was about to say, Like we
were playing around with some videos that we could generate
just make you know, through artificial intelligence, and that's all
I could see the average consumer doing with it, Like
they're not going to be productive, all right.

Speaker 3 (55:25):
And that's why I think it's so bullish about meta.
You know, you're you're on your Facebook and you're like,
make a video of the Chiefs beating the Eagles in
the super Bowl, you know, and it's AI generated.

Speaker 1 (55:36):
But I mean it's chilly stuff too. But it will
not allow you to use anyone's face.

Speaker 3 (55:41):
And that no, it doesn't let me do that. Yeah,
it says your your account isn't approved for using faces.

Speaker 4 (55:48):
So you did create a video of Dave dancing in
the tesla and it actually similar to you.

Speaker 3 (55:52):
Yeah, but I had to how to describe your features?

Speaker 1 (55:55):
That was a song. I couldn't even see the video.

Speaker 5 (55:58):
Yeah, I just white hair like you.

Speaker 3 (56:01):
Yeah, I created I'll show you after the show.

Speaker 1 (56:04):
A guy with politician hair dancing on his tesla. I
just said, white hair, politician hair. No, no, at least
once a week out, here's some busy you should run
for office, yeah, politician hair.

Speaker 3 (56:16):
But yeah, it's that it's the silly things for sure.
That probably, Yeah, I might be a little young. Y
might be a little young. Everybody run into big big
deal like Buffett and Trump and all that all ldered
me but also talking about how human individuals are going
to use AI? How are companies going to use AI?
And I saw an interesting chart. Obviously a lot of

(56:38):
companies are trying to incorporate AI. According to this chart,
financial and insurance firms, only ten percent are scheduled to
try to incorporate AI in some way into their their practices.
Five percent had already had AI incorporated, another five percent,
so now it'd be up to ten percent. The biggest
sector is that that is increasing their AI usage, of course,

(57:02):
is technology sector.

Speaker 2 (57:04):
The insurance Department's getting hold of it kind of scares me.
It feels like it's an easier way to discriminate against,
like who you're going to give the premiums.

Speaker 3 (57:11):
It's it wouldn't be a way to discriminate. It's a
way to enhance their risk management problem.

Speaker 2 (57:16):
For sure.

Speaker 1 (57:16):
They've got a secret They got a secret database somewhere
that they all have access to. When I backed my
Tesla end of.

Speaker 2 (57:22):
The Wall, everybody knew.

Speaker 1 (57:24):
Everybody knew. My premium went from nineteen hundred to twenty
to forty one. They do share it for me, and
so I said, let's shop it. He goes. Can't they
know everybody knows, Dylan, everybody knows.

Speaker 3 (57:40):
Yeah, and well, one of the interesting uh we heard
there's a new AI development coming that will allow financial
advisors to know everything about public transactions that occur with
their clients or even proSP clients.

Speaker 2 (57:53):
So like your client just sold a boat out and
wherever he is, you can know about that instantly.

Speaker 3 (57:59):
That's because it's it's technically a public transaction.

Speaker 5 (58:03):
This the company is just let you know. But it's
not like they go to private records.

Speaker 3 (58:09):
Like imagine you had someone that parsed through all the
data that is kept on every single county's assessor's office
in the country. No one could do that, but an
AI could. That's what That's what it's saying.

Speaker 1 (58:20):
But it's it's kind of like that. That kind of
reminds me of these creeps out there that watch the
obituation and then go pray on the widow.

Speaker 3 (58:27):
Yeah, yeah, a little bit. I guess man.

Speaker 1 (58:29):
That's just like seems right to me. You know, you
see the husband died and you go in to see
if they ever survived by and it gives his wife's
name and find her and let's go talk.

Speaker 5 (58:42):
Never heard of that.

Speaker 2 (58:43):
That's horrible.

Speaker 1 (58:44):
You've heard of it now, it's not uncommon.

Speaker 3 (58:46):
Well, you know that brings up a good point about scams.
We we had one client that was scammed this week,
and you got to be very careful with the paypower
venmo or Zelle scams. You'll see him all the Amazon's
coming you have this bill due. Don't click on links
if you don't know what's coming from.

Speaker 1 (59:06):
Don't click on links.

Speaker 3 (59:07):
Don't answer calls from numbers you don't know. If they
are needing to get ahold of you, they'll leave you
a voicemail and look at the Make sure your voicemail
box is empty or at least can accept voicemails it's
not full.

Speaker 1 (59:17):
And if you get an email that's a little suspicious,
look at the returning address if it makes no sense. Yes,
the biggest way, that's the biggest way to tell. Just
look at that recurring dress. If it looks chilly, I
just just delete it. OK.

Speaker 2 (59:30):
For this For this person's case, they got sent a
link and they clicked on it. They got connected to
a phone call and they had to act immediately. If
you are ever asked to act immediately, just stop it,
hang up the phone.

Speaker 1 (59:41):
All many times you've been on the computer. Nothing maybe
you guys never but you're on the computer and all
of a sudden the alarm starts going off. Right, Yes,
I don't even know what makes that happen. I've never
had to my wife that had happened in a number
of times. I think you're clicking on something, probably, but
the alarm starts going off. You're a computer has been
in factor. You have to call this number away, you know,
And this this klient of ours did and and they

(01:00:04):
got her life savings. Everything that was not with Greenberg
Financial was gone in a matter of hours. Terrifying, horrible,
horrible people out there, horrible people. Hey, how about IBM?
We talked about IBM last week, Dylan, you mentioned is
it is it going to be like IBM? We're just
kind of goes to sleep, right? IBM up twenty five

(01:00:26):
percent IBM in the last twelve months. Another ten percent
at the open on Thursday, new all time high, all
time high IBM.

Speaker 3 (01:00:35):
Remember remember Dave, you always ask me, what why don't
you guys take your profits? Yeah, we took our profits
on that one.

Speaker 1 (01:00:42):
Yeah. Yeah? Is that IBM?

Speaker 3 (01:00:44):
Yeah?

Speaker 1 (01:00:46):
Out of it?

Speaker 5 (01:00:49):
Yeah, twelve you got twelve?

Speaker 3 (01:00:53):
Yeah, I think we have twenty five thirty percent on it.
You know, all time high you get out.

Speaker 1 (01:00:56):
Of it take I'm guessing one thing you're not going
to ever be is the best day in twenty years.
I'm gonna hold for the best day in twenty years.

Speaker 5 (01:01:06):
Oh you didn't know that was coming?

Speaker 1 (01:01:08):
What is the matter with you?

Speaker 2 (01:01:09):
Somebody that had a good week this week? Starbucks? I mean,
and they had horrible earnings.

Speaker 3 (01:01:13):
That didn't make a lot of sense. Guidance the stars helped.
Brian Nichols must be really good at talking about guidance.

Speaker 2 (01:01:20):
Well, the way that he was talking about I did
listen to a little snippet. He thinks that they're going
to double the stores in America. I mean, they didn't
give a time frame or anything like that, but that's
his goal is to double the amount of stores in America.

Speaker 3 (01:01:32):
Why not so many?

Speaker 4 (01:01:36):
His goal also is to bring it back to being
a more sit down and do homework, do work there
rather than a Dutch Bros. Where Starbucks was going towards that,
where's drive thro will only get in get out as
quick as possible, and he wants to bring it back
to sit down and hang out, which could lead to
more sales because they're sitting there. You're gonna have two coffees,
you're gonna have an hour, and you're gonna be like, Okay,
I'm hungry. I'm gonna get a food piece of food

(01:01:56):
from Starbucks. So that could lead to more revenue.

Speaker 1 (01:02:00):
This is a young guy, I think fifty fifty two
or something like that. He he was the CEO of
of Taco Bell, No Taco Bell for six years and
was rock star there got hired away by Chipotle.

Speaker 5 (01:02:13):
Oh I didn't know that either.

Speaker 1 (01:02:14):
Oh yeah yeah, and they became the CEO of Chipotle
and that was that was all the rage everybody wanted
in on Chipotle, and then Starbucks got him. Now what
he's doing this is brilliant. What he's doing is he's
going back and he's poaching people from Taco Bell and
from Chipotle, people that he knows are really good people
he's taking. He's taking them from Taco Bell and from Chipotle.

(01:02:38):
And they were four to quarter of results to beat expectations,
although Same Stars did decline for a fourth consecutive quarter.
I think the I think the guy. If you're buying
Starbucks here, you're you're buying Brian Nichols.

Speaker 4 (01:02:52):
You're giving him the benefit of the doubt right now
that he's settled in and getting his vision enacted.

Speaker 1 (01:02:57):
Yes, And you're probably seeing the commercials now the Starbucks
coffee company. That's a lot of classy, isn't it. The Starbucks?
The Starbucks coffee company. And you gave him all that,
You give him a lot of grief about his sharpie idea,
the shoppy idea now and the commercials are showing writing
little notes to the clients on and I don't think
it's our phone number, all right.

Speaker 5 (01:03:18):
Yeah, I mean it will be some places.

Speaker 1 (01:03:21):
Probably people will do that. Probably it's happening.

Speaker 7 (01:03:23):
Though.

Speaker 4 (01:03:23):
One of our clients had their name written on it
on the Starbucks.

Speaker 1 (01:03:28):
Name smiley face, have a good day.

Speaker 2 (01:03:30):
Oh how cute?

Speaker 1 (01:03:32):
You know, I don't know. Personal touch the person ability
a long way.

Speaker 4 (01:03:36):
It doesn't like it makes it I mean it's small,
but it also makes it feel like it's not so
cold anymore. Like my problem is starting modern and sharp
and cold brick and mortar before.

Speaker 2 (01:03:46):
Your problem with Starbucks is.

Speaker 5 (01:03:47):
A warm environment where you want to go be cozy.

Speaker 3 (01:03:50):
The problem is the brick and mortar. You're gonna double stores,
You're got your doubling the square footage you have to
pay for.

Speaker 1 (01:03:57):
I think this, I think if we don't see this,
style could a new all time high this year. I'll
be surprised. And I knew all the time high is
that far way seven or one eight on Friday from
the all time highs one twenty five.

Speaker 2 (01:04:09):
From the call. Brian Nickel inspired campaign aims to fix
crippling throughout issues, reducing menuclutter, revamped a food offering with
actual testing, improve in store customer experience with Sharpie's focus
on serving consistently great coffee. This quarter of the main
margin headwinds stemming from this were because of marketing activity,
which we've seen a lot more commercials of. And at

(01:04:30):
the same time, their margins got destroyed with a non
dairy you know how they stopped charging charging for people
if they want oat milk or if they want almond milk,
that's tapped into their margins and he's looking to destroy
those or you know, then those down later on.

Speaker 1 (01:04:43):
Yeah, I'd feel better if he wasn't working from home.

Speaker 5 (01:04:45):
But you know he's got a free jet every time people.

Speaker 3 (01:04:49):
People forget that people love Dutch pros. Okay, there's a
lot of other coffee companies too that people like going to.
Just because you double stores doesn't mean you're gonna get
double customers.

Speaker 1 (01:04:59):
Right, But if you you drive by a Starbucks, you
very rarely will you see the same thing about Dutch Bros. Though,
same thing about Touch Bros.

Speaker 5 (01:05:07):
Very popular.

Speaker 3 (01:05:08):
Yeah, no, I understand that when I drive by Dutch Bros.
It's never less than four cars.

Speaker 1 (01:05:14):
I've not had that same experience. But anyway, Dust Bros.

Speaker 4 (01:05:16):
Is a little more niche though in the sense of
like they got more like sweets. It's more caffeine, more caffeine,
more sweetters. They're very high calorie drinks and food and stuff.
Starbucks just has the regular coffee. It's not as much
like that as Dutch Bros. Is more unique. I like
Dutch Bros. Though, but I do go to Starbucks too.

Speaker 1 (01:05:36):
From someone who never developed a taste for coffee, I'll
have to defer to you, guys.

Speaker 3 (01:05:40):
I don't drink I drink mushroom coffee.

Speaker 1 (01:05:43):
You drink what mushroom coffee? Mushroom coffee?

Speaker 3 (01:05:45):
Yeah, shout out the rise.

Speaker 1 (01:05:49):
Okay, Walgrains we doesn't go by that. We don't talk
about Walgreens, right either, they've got somebody that wants to
take them over, or we've got the Department of Justice
gonna sue them. They fell twelve percent on Thursday after
they said they're going to suspend their cash dividend. Now,

(01:06:10):
Walgreen said in the press release it's in the midst
of long term turnaround. Is aiming to strengthen his balance
sheet by reducing debt and improving cash flow. Okay, if
you're a company that's struggling to reinvent yourself, why are
you paying a dividend at all? And that they would
suspend the dividend to me not only is brilliant, but generally,

(01:06:33):
I say, generally with the capital g generally that's the bottom.
When when they it's gotten so bad, we're gonna have
to suspend the dividend that is often assigned to the bottom.
Not suggesting you buy Walgreen stock, because it just seems
like the company can't get out of its own where
is it going to go? Yeah, you can't get out
of his own way, So I don't know. I think Dylan,

(01:06:55):
you talked about Germany right were last week, I think
you were Europe and you said Germany's economy was really
in the toilet things.

Speaker 5 (01:07:04):
Probably may not say that.

Speaker 3 (01:07:05):
Probably, man, it sounds.

Speaker 5 (01:07:06):
Like something Todd would say, I would say it.

Speaker 1 (01:07:08):
German government on Wednesday slashed this gross domestic product forecast
two point three percent. That's the growth that they're projecting
in twenty twenty five. They're ahead of economy and climate
said they diagnosis is serious. Germany is stuck in stagflation. Stagflation,
of course, is inflation with no growth. It's the worst

(01:07:31):
economic condition that you can find that's not abnormal for Europe.
And one of the reasons that how many years ago
we got out of all of our European stocks? Yeah,
two or three now, yeah, it's been two or three
years ago.

Speaker 3 (01:07:44):
Although again the reason German, the German country is and
where they are is because of socialism. Yes, they wanted
to be part of the EU. The EU started bring
God out and now they're the only semi decent country
in the EU that has to pay for all the
other semi performing countries. Not only that, their entire industrial

(01:08:04):
manufacturing economy has just gotten glutted because of this and
people finding cheaper labor outside in other countries. Same thing
that kind of happens to the US. So Yeah, that
country just doesn't have the worlds of currency like we do,
and so they're not going to be able to really
develop the inflation that they need to keep their economy going.
So I don't I don't see really good things happening.

Speaker 1 (01:08:23):
For the year.

Speaker 3 (01:08:23):
We see the euro almost at parody with the dollar. Yes,
that's largely because of it.

Speaker 1 (01:08:28):
Yeah, it's it's it's fad to see. I mean, Germany
for years was an industrial giant, and.

Speaker 3 (01:08:34):
I'm going to Germany this year, so I'll let you
are how they're how they're doing.

Speaker 1 (01:08:37):
You are and for a while with Greece and Italy
struggling mindily with their economies, not paying taxes in those
two places as an art, so that's it's not surprising
that they're struggling. A lot of people moving from Italy
and Greece, a lot of talent moving from Greece to Germany.

Speaker 7 (01:08:58):
So I don't know, Yeah, it's kind of I don't
know where it went wrong, right, but but Germany is
in trouble and and all of Europe is lagging far
behind the United States.

Speaker 3 (01:09:10):
And if you have a the situation got exacerbated when
the when Britain left, Yes, and yes, that was they
were the other good country and the U helping and
now the burden was just left on Germany.

Speaker 1 (01:09:23):
Soil kind I was talking about earlier that had the
large Ira and never did a roth conversion during two
years of an Nella income also as twenty five percent
of his portfolio in Europe. So yeah, it's clific. He
showed up here when he did well.

Speaker 3 (01:09:35):
Hey, when we're coming up on the end of this segment,
I just want to shout out the Tucson Jewish Museum
a Holocaust Center. It's an organization I serve on the
board for and they're close to my heart. They talk
about they have actually the oldest synagogue in the Arizona
territory that was first formed, and then also the Holocaust Center,
which talks about the genocides.

Speaker 5 (01:09:56):
Of the world.

Speaker 3 (01:09:56):
How easily societies can fall into it. It's not just
about the color of your skin, it's about it's tribalism,
it's classifying individuals as others. At the end of the day,
we're all humans, and so the worst thing a society
can fall into is a genocidal act. And it doesn't
matter what rhyme or reason, it's for killing humans. Is

(01:10:18):
never something that should be brought into human civilization, so
teaching the kids about how easy societies have fallen into
it in the past is very important to us. We
educate people. If you want to go check this out,
it's one of the best kept secrets in Tucson. You
can go Wednesday through Sunday one pm to five pm.
And also, we're having our annual gala coming up in

(01:10:40):
April sorry March area. That will be at the Tucson
Opera House. So if you want information, you can email
me at Todd at Greenberg Financial dot com or go
to the Tucson Jewish Museum a Holocaust Center website. You
can find tickets information about it there. The Greenberg Financial
team will be there as well, celebrating that night, and
so we're looking forward to see some of you people there.

(01:11:02):
Located it's downtown the Tucson Opera House.

Speaker 1 (01:11:05):
So that's where the festivity is, yes.

Speaker 3 (01:11:07):
But oh, the jushow On Jewish Museum Holocaust Center is
located at six and Stone sixth in Stone Downtown.

Speaker 1 (01:11:13):
Fantastic, fantastic, good people doing good work. Love it, Love it.
Tesla doubled in the last six weeks following the election
in the six weeks following the election, down twenty percent
from that high. On Wednesday, they reported they missed sales
and earnings for the most recent quarter, and the stock
rallied four percent.

Speaker 2 (01:11:30):
Yeah, but then it fill and then it fell again
on Friday. Did it finish up on Friday?

Speaker 1 (01:11:34):
I think you finished probably finished down a percent or
two on the week. But it's just we continue to
be puzzled by why that.

Speaker 2 (01:11:41):
I didn't even look at the earning support. I just
like looking at the chart.

Speaker 1 (01:11:43):
Yeah. Anyway, we'll be back with the next segment of
The Moneymatter Show again. Thanks again for joining us. We
appreciate it.

Speaker 3 (01:11:53):
Welcome back to The Money Matter Show. My name is
Todd Lick. I'm here with Dylan Greenberg, David Sherwood, and
Sebastian Borsini. Go ahead and go to our Facebook page.
You can always see where we post Dave's monthly market
update in the newsletter. There. You can see all of
our newsletters by going to our website and signing up
for it as well. As we just came out with

(01:12:15):
new TV shows, so you can go on NBC Sunday
Morning or Sunday Night check those out. You can also
catch them on the YouTube page if you ever miss them.
This week, it was a lot of story around semi conductors.
The Chip act helped propel the video higher because they
helped the narrative that they were the latest and greatest
chip you needed them. But now that you had this

(01:12:37):
deep seat company come out, it's likely that that narrative
had a kink and its armor. Do you know about
Nicholas Teleeb, You know who that is. He's the author
of a book called Black Swans, and it talks about
black Swan events and almost how bubbles are formed and
broken in the past, and famous scenario of the tulip

(01:12:59):
mania and this was back in New Amsterdam, sure when
the tulips got real valuable and then crashed like crazy.
And it just talks about how when these narratives are formed,
things can go up very very quickly. But when that
narrative has its first little kink in its armor and
then that glass starts to break, it can all come

(01:13:19):
crumbling down very quickly as well. Think all the just
as fast as it went up, it can come down.
It's pretty much the point.

Speaker 1 (01:13:26):
I think. I think that that's one of the reasons.
And I heard a couple of bandalists talk about this
last week where it probably if you have Nvidio's probably
makes some sense to lighten that position a bit because
that there is an uncertainty, and I think that's probably
one of the reasons it was down seventeen percent last
week and may have some more to come. But it's
it's for a couple of years, it's been every single

(01:13:49):
dip has been an opportunity to buy, and this may
be one as well. We won't only know in hindsight.

Speaker 4 (01:13:56):
Yeah, but if you've owned it for a couple of years,
your position, if you had a favorite positions going to
be up.

Speaker 5 (01:14:01):
So it's not a bad idea to take some profit.

Speaker 1 (01:14:03):
I agree you your three is probably six.

Speaker 4 (01:14:06):
Obviously, if you're in a taxable brokeredge you account, you
got to look into that to make sure you don't
realize too many games to deal with capital gains tax.
But if you're in a retirement account, you don't got
to worry about that, so it might makes sense to
raise some cash from profits from Nvidia.

Speaker 1 (01:14:17):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (01:14:17):
We finished last week talking about our risk analyzing tool
and how it can help you prepare for market drops
like we saw on Monday, a two percent drop freaked
a lot of people out, but then also we saw
the market almost come back to where it started the week. Sure,
we ended about a percent down, but the now actually
finished up so quickly. Markets can change. You can't change

(01:14:38):
your investment thesis on a one day market move or
a one day event scenario. It really should be based
on a long term investment hes and your goals and
objectives of the plan, and just your pure risk tolerance
as in an individual. So having that risk tolerance is
something we can set for you. We can give you
a questionnaire. We can also set the risk tolerance of
your current portfolio. We have a software that will tell

(01:15:00):
you how risky each position is and then give you
an average riskore for the entire portfolio, and then we
can prepare that, I mean compare that to your actual
risk score and the risk wore your portfolio, and then
make adjustments if we need to based on that, but
not making adjustments based on the latest information that just
came out, because that can really make you emotional.

Speaker 1 (01:15:21):
And the black swan event is something that typically is
going to be more impacting on high beta stocks, on
those stocks that have run up so dramatically and and
and generally speaking, it is because there's a lot of
fomo going on. There, a lot of fear of mithing out.
And you saw that with Nvidia, You've seen that with bitcoin. Uh.

(01:15:45):
It makes the possibility of a black swan event more
real for companies like that than for a Procter and
Gamble or a Colgate or something some more boring shock
if you will.

Speaker 2 (01:15:57):
Did you see those cruise liners this week?

Speaker 3 (01:15:58):
Yeah, they gotta they gotta bones.

Speaker 2 (01:16:00):
My goodness, just tearing it up.

Speaker 1 (01:16:02):
We're all Caribbeans doubled in the last twelve months.

Speaker 2 (01:16:05):
And I think we've talked about price target. I mean,
they're they're training at I think I'm wrong.

Speaker 3 (01:16:10):
If you if we talked about this about six months ago,
have you if you looked at a cruise liner's chart,
they're still they were still at the lows of the pandemic, right,
and then they were nowhere close to where they were
before the pandemic. So eventually you had to think they
had to get had to get there. We saw that
happen with the airline stocks. I mean, other than American,
all of them came back pretty much.

Speaker 1 (01:16:28):
They they recovered very they had recovered very slowly, right,
the cruise line stock so slowly enough that they really
were of no interest to us.

Speaker 3 (01:16:36):
People forgot about it in the office because you your
clients are wanting to make money in a market that's
moving higher, and those stocks were not moving higher. Yeah,
now the stock the market's kind of fattened out, and
off they go away, they go yeah, and it's just
it's hard to know. I always always say, our job
is every day, our job is to do the impossible,
and every now and then we get it right impossible,

(01:16:59):
being pretty confusure, I think right now you can say
that small caps are undervalued compared to the large caps,
and when that happens, small caps outperform large caps historically speaking.
So I don't think it's a bad idea to rediversify.
If you had a QQQ spy, anything associated with the
S and P five hundred NAZAC, which is highly tech related,

(01:17:21):
highly concentrated into a couple positions, you take some of
those profits and move it into a small cap, which
might not do great on the downside if there is
a downside event, like you said, a black Swan small
cap are beta high beta stocks, They're going to move down.
But when the market comes back off of that event.
They will be the first ones to come back, the
small caps, and then and then the large caps will too.

(01:17:45):
But eventually it's like what we say with the equal
weighted SMP and then the regular sm P, the equal
weighted will outperform the regular weighted at some point and
that's this will happen with small caps and large caps too.
And so as this trend has keep continuing, our large
cap keeps out performing, that's going to reverse at some point.

Speaker 1 (01:18:03):
And if your portfolio was sixty forty and now we've
had back to back years with twenty percent gains, you're
probably more like a seventy five to twenty five and
you need to pair some of that back. And while
taxes are always a consideration, don't ever let taxes be
the reason you don't do the right thing.

Speaker 3 (01:18:20):
Yeah, and as you said, reallocating into some more fixed income,
it's a perfect opportunity to go into a higher duration
ETF like a TLT or a EDF eDV that has
depreciated a lot over the last couple months as instur
rates have risen, and now we're at a point where
it doesn't look like rates it can go much higher
from here. Could they certainly, but they've already they're at

(01:18:44):
highs that we haven't seen since October twenty twenty three.

Speaker 5 (01:18:46):
Right, So.

Speaker 3 (01:18:48):
This is a good place to start a position of
going into the fixed income side.

Speaker 1 (01:18:52):
Ye. Many times in my career I have had people
that did not want to sell something because of the
capital gain, and they waited long enough that that capital
capital gain disappeared. You didn't have to worry about that anymore.

Speaker 5 (01:19:05):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (01:19:05):
We I mean, at the end of the day, taxes
me and you made money.

Speaker 1 (01:19:08):
Yep.

Speaker 3 (01:19:09):
Absolutely, you'd rather make money than not. Absolutely.

Speaker 1 (01:19:11):
And I have a deal, a standing deal with all
of my clients. If you would rather have me take
the gain and pay the tax, I will. I will
happily do that if I bother If it bothers, you do,
and I'll take the gain and pay the tax. I'll
take that burden off of your shoulders. Not a problem. Hey,
it is officially the Gulf of America or Wolf of America.

Speaker 4 (01:19:34):
Yeah, according to Google Maps, it's Gulf of America.

Speaker 1 (01:19:37):
I think it's a it's not official until Google. It's
like you can't you know your birthday is not real
until it's on faithbook. Right? The Gulf of America isn't
official until it's on Google Maps. If Google Maps going
to change all of their maps, you know.

Speaker 3 (01:19:52):
You know what, Well, a company that just got absolutely
obliterated UPS the first day in history, I believe.

Speaker 1 (01:19:59):
Oh yes, and wow.

Speaker 3 (01:20:01):
They're cutting back on Amazon shipments, which I don't know
how that helps them, but I just think Amazon had
to really killed that business model because it does not get.

Speaker 1 (01:20:11):
A five year low. And what's been happening is UPS
has been delivering Amazon packages and they just came to
an agreement to deliver half as many packages.

Speaker 2 (01:20:21):
Yeah, that doesn't make sense.

Speaker 1 (01:20:23):
Yeah, and so the stock hits a five year low.
Doesn't make sense to you? What, like, why are they
going to Why would that they would agree to that?
Because otherwise they're gonna get none? All right, that's I mean,
that's the option. You're seeing these blue Amazon trucks all
over town. How about this, UPS? How about we give
you none? Okay, okay, we'll take half. Right so that

(01:20:43):
you ask why why they would agree that. That's why
they would agree to it, because because it beats none.

Speaker 2 (01:20:49):
So Amazon no longer needs them. They're gonna not.

Speaker 1 (01:20:53):
They need them, but they don't need them as badly
as they did because they got so many delivery trucks.
And I'm sure it's a contract, probably a three year contract,
probably something at least a three year to five year contract,
and they just renegotiated and Amazon said, I'll tell you
what We'll let's you do half as much as we
used to do in the UPS. Okay, yeah, fine, you
know we'll take better than zero. Yeah.

Speaker 3 (01:21:12):
I definitely don't think you can use UPS as a
gauge of the global economy anymore.

Speaker 2 (01:21:15):
No, not anymore. I was actually in an UPS.

Speaker 1 (01:21:18):
Oh that X is the measure of the global economy
only because it really is the only shipper that really
truly is doing business globally, right, I mean DHL in Europe,
the UPS and the United States FDx federal expresses all
over the place, So that's kind of why they're the measure.

(01:21:39):
I thought something very significant announced on Friday, fair Text.
It's a pharmaceutical company. It's done absolutely nothing. The stocks
down one percent in the last twelve months. They gained
seven percent at the open on Friday. The FDA approved
their non opioid painkiller. Now that's huge, because yeah, all

(01:22:01):
we have is to talk about the opioid epidemic, right,
and and it's and as as someone who has had
injuries and has had surgeries and has been given opioids, Uh,
it's not fun to give up the opioids. So I
think if you could get a pain reliabor that was effective,

(01:22:23):
a non addictive, a non opioid, I think that could
be a big, big market. So we'll see where that goes.
It's the it's the first new painkiller in decades. Now.
They they've revamped there, they revamp, et cetera, and you know,
new and improved, right, but it's the first truly new
painkiller in literally decades.

Speaker 5 (01:22:46):
Wow.

Speaker 2 (01:22:47):
How much how much does the soccer ellly off of that?

Speaker 1 (01:22:50):
Is it?

Speaker 3 (01:22:50):
You know, that's what AI will really help with is
creating new painkillers, new medicines, new things like that, and
that you know, people just can't come up with themselves.

Speaker 4 (01:22:59):
Big think about what Orcle was saying too with the
new investment into AI is that's what they're looking to do,
and do a lot of cancer stuff as well.

Speaker 1 (01:23:09):
We've said on the show for almost every single week,
I think for the last couple of months that we
think that probably medicine is the primary beneficiary and a.

Speaker 3 (01:23:17):
Big medicine story this week was John John F. Kennedy
Robert F. Kennedy being testified in front of the Senate
to be brought it could be confirmed as the Health secretary.
So that's gonna be really interesting. I haven't voted on
it yet, so they probably vote on it next week.
But he's done both of his hearings from the Finance

(01:23:39):
and he's done Health Committee. So now it's they do
their internal talking and they decide what they do.

Speaker 1 (01:23:44):
So the former Democrat now now trump'skur whose family can't
stand him, and we'll have to see what happens.

Speaker 3 (01:23:51):
It'd be the really good thing for a nation. I
know you don't believe it, but.

Speaker 1 (01:23:54):
Well, you know, I think it's one of those people
that may not have all the origin of water. But
you know, he has a lot of fans and he
has a lot of detractors.

Speaker 3 (01:24:03):
I'm one of his fans.

Speaker 1 (01:24:04):
No, and my my daughter is as well, and I'm not.
So that's that is what it is. Uh, and we'll
we'll have to see how that hearing goes. It's gonna
be interesting to watch that vote. It's gonna be close.
We'll be back with the final segment of the Money
Matter Show.

Speaker 2 (01:24:18):
Right after this break, Welcome back to the Money Matter Show.
This is the last segment. Money was Sebastian Border seeing
him here with David Sherwood, Dylan Greenberg, and Todd Glick Junior.

Speaker 3 (01:24:26):
We talked a little bit about at the top of
the break, I mean on top of the show, but
Variative Holdings VRT stock lost forty two on one day
on Monday, largely due because in the video they are
the cooling of the Blackwell chip. If you don't need
the great latest and greatest Blackwell chip, you don't need.
VRT lost forty two percent, only finished the week down
twenty percent, so actually made forty after that drop to

(01:24:47):
get back up to only being down twenty percent. It's
done really well on the last four days of trading.
Did terrible on Monday.

Speaker 2 (01:24:55):
But to be fair, before that horrible trading day that
had dropped forty percent, what to go up the five
day before that.

Speaker 3 (01:25:00):
Yeah, it's actually very interesting when you want to look
at the chart.

Speaker 1 (01:25:03):
What's back to where it was a week as though?
Well that's what I mean, I mean ten days ago.

Speaker 3 (01:25:07):
If you wanted to look at on a monthly basis,
it's actually up over the past month. Okay, so you
wouldn't guess that like a thought goes through a forty correction.

Speaker 1 (01:25:17):
Yeah, but right before the forty correction was a new
all time high exactly.

Speaker 3 (01:25:21):
And that's what doesn't happen very often, is you go
up and then drop forty percent very quickly. By itself,
just goes to show how quickly market developments can change
a business model.

Speaker 1 (01:25:33):
This was a biggie. I mean, this is this is
this entire rally has been based upon AI and Nvidia
is the king of AI. And if in fact you
don't need the Nvidia chip and can actually do it
with some of their older, cheaper chips, that's a game
changer that changes everything down the road. So I think

(01:25:56):
probably that there were a lot of detractors after the
comments from deep seek that it really wasn't that big
a deal and that they really didn't change that much
and they hadn't really gotten that sophisticated. Well.

Speaker 4 (01:26:09):
I think a big thing that you're saying too is
that in large stock market part is that people might
just start taking profit from nvideo. So that might just
see a drop in that case where a lot of
people have been holding for a few years, like we're
talking about last segment, and now they're going to start
taking profits. I could see the stock drop just because
of that. They're like, Okay, now because of this news,

(01:26:30):
what if more news comes out and our gains start dropping,
Let's just take some profit right now. So that might
be an issue that they see in the near term.

Speaker 1 (01:26:37):
We had a nice rally of Friday morning before Trump
announced the tariffs on Mexico and Canada that turned everything south.
And in that rally again early Friday morning, and video
didn't really look that strong to me. I actually shorted
a little bit of it Friday for a day trade.

Speaker 2 (01:27:01):
It was up nicely and then it just got crushed.

Speaker 1 (01:27:03):
I was up a couple of a couple of points.
I think it's actually at the highest. Probably was up
three points, which is that's not terrible. That's two and
a half percent, and then it just got went south
in a hurry. Apples the other one, Apple opened at
one nine. I think it closed the day on Friday
about one thirty five. I'm sorry, yeah, two thirty five.

(01:27:24):
I'm going to confuse with Nvidio, So two thirty five
from two forty nine. So down fourteen points. I thought,
when it, you know, because I know that they're they're
struggling a bit. I know that their business is slowed.
I know their China sales are down double digits. When
it when it showed the strong opening, it had a
strong day on Wednesday and a strong day on Thursday,

(01:27:45):
and on Friday morning when it opened higher on the
earnings report, I go, I'm either missing something or this
is a real great short opportunity. Again, short was selling
a stock that you don't own in the hope that
you can buy it back cheaper. Problem with that is
if it keeps going higher, at some point, you've got
to buy it back and there's no h The problem

(01:28:06):
with shortening the stocks is there is a limit to
what you can make, but there is no limit to
what you can lose. And I've never thought that was
a real good risk reward trade off where you could
lose an unlimited amount of money but only make a
specific amount of money. Yeah, I'm kind of like betting
on football, right.

Speaker 3 (01:28:26):
The unlimited things limited football.

Speaker 4 (01:28:30):
Oh yeah, technically you could if you just went every bet.

Speaker 1 (01:28:34):
Now I'm talking about about it, Any any single bet,
any single bet you they cap you out.

Speaker 4 (01:28:39):
I try to make parlays sometimes and they cap you
out at like a certain amount.

Speaker 1 (01:28:43):
Yeah, I mean, you're upside's not gonna win.

Speaker 5 (01:28:46):
But they still in the office.

Speaker 4 (01:28:47):
Chance that it does win, they can't afford that payout,
so they cap you.

Speaker 2 (01:28:50):
Hey, Dave, did you see that Trump Media is changing
their business model?

Speaker 1 (01:28:54):
I did? Is that crazy or what? Guys we've been
We've talked about this. We talked about this Trump Media
a nauseum, right, because it literally is a company that
I think last year had a couple of million dollars
in sales. It's not really even a going concern.

Speaker 2 (01:29:09):
Intrinsic value was maybe two values.

Speaker 1 (01:29:12):
Balk or two per share. It's been trading in the thirties.
I've got down twelve percent since the election, but he
jumped ten percent on Wednesday after they said they're going
to expand into financial services, including investment vehicles and bitcoin.
So Trump Media and I you know, I don't discount

(01:29:33):
anything that he does because everything he not everything. Many
of the things he has touched in his life have
worked out really well. And I'm sure he's had a
lot of people along the way. So don't do it
that way. Don't do it that way, and he just
keeps doing it the same way he's always done, and
it worked out. I think you've got enough power in

(01:29:54):
that name that this company could hang around long enough
to wear really became a real company.

Speaker 2 (01:30:01):
I think so too, But I have no idea what
they're going to do with this new financial services I mean,
the true five truth FY business unit plans to launch
its own investment vehicles later this year. What does that mean?
Are they going to launch ETFs? Are they gonna you know,
is it going to be a brokeerage?

Speaker 1 (01:30:16):
Oh? Yeah? The article I read said financial services.

Speaker 2 (01:30:20):
Yeah, so like a rock, like a Charles Schwab.

Speaker 1 (01:30:22):
Yeah? Yeah, so could it? Could that grow into something? Perhaps?
And are you patient enough to hold a thirty dollars
stock that's worth two until the two becomes thirty? I
guess my thought on it was this company would have
to grow so exponentially. Better places to get back to
where it is now.

Speaker 2 (01:30:42):
Better places for your money, it seems like it. Another
one that's uh interesting to me is Reddit. I mean,
they hit an all time high shares gains more than
three percent this year after Guggenheimen reddit or said that
Reddit is among the company's best position this year to
benefit from its digital ad landscape, especially as it utilizes
new format formats to monetize. So, I still don't see

(01:31:04):
ads on Reddit personally.

Speaker 1 (01:31:06):
What what would a person use Reddit for?

Speaker 2 (01:31:09):
It's like a disc like it's a forum.

Speaker 1 (01:31:13):
Is it a search engine?

Speaker 2 (01:31:15):
Yeah, you could call it a search engine. And so
there's like communities in there. So like the Wall Street,
that's community in there, if you remember that with the
all game stop stuff. A community you go into there
and people talk about stocks, what do I want to
buy here? What do I want to buy there? There's
communities for what type of you know, clean eating communities, whatever.

(01:31:35):
It's a communal based forum.

Speaker 1 (01:31:37):
So is the chat room?

Speaker 2 (01:31:39):
Yeah, essentially you could call it that.

Speaker 1 (01:31:41):
Okay, So it wouldn't be a search engine.

Speaker 4 (01:31:43):
No, No, it's not really a search engine. You can
search like topics, question into a chat room in a sense.

Speaker 1 (01:31:49):
I see, So you you search some like plants you
go into it.

Speaker 4 (01:31:53):
Yeah, yes, it's like what plants grow well in Arizona
and there's a chat.

Speaker 2 (01:31:58):
Room talking about Arizona plants serien.

Speaker 1 (01:32:01):
Yeah. Interesting. Yeah, but you don't see ads?

Speaker 2 (01:32:04):
Yeah, I mean, and I'm not a big Reddit users.
I just sometimes find myself on it. I go to
it and I don't see ads on there.

Speaker 1 (01:32:10):
No stock has done well.

Speaker 2 (01:32:11):
Done really well. It's an all the time high.

Speaker 1 (01:32:13):
I thought. The one that that that just keeps going
is is Boying. You know, Boying has has very quietly
gone up thirteen percent in the last ninety days. Gained
another six percent on Tuesday, despite reporting that there's the
Q four results missed analyst estimates. They had a loss
of five dollars and ninety cents per share. Five dollars

(01:32:35):
and ninety cents per share. Analysts thought they were going
to lose three dollars, so the stock the company lost
double what they were expected to lose, and the stock
went up. I don't know, it's almost like Tesla. I
just kind of scratched my head and say, say, what's
going on here? Maybe this quarterly report was the end

(01:32:57):
of the bad news. Maybe that's what invests are thinking.

Speaker 2 (01:33:01):
But they're hoping.

Speaker 1 (01:33:02):
The CEO was on CNBC and he did make optimistic comments,
so that's got to be what they're betting, is that
that's it, that's the end of the of the bad news.
I guess my biggest concern with Boeing is they don't
have earnings, they're losing money handle or fist. What if
they actually did have earnings, then they would have a pe. Yeah,

(01:33:23):
and the pe would be very very high an issue
for four or five years now. Yeah, like the unbelievable.
But I mean it's it's been at It's probably one
of the top performing dollstocks this year. Three M was
number one.

Speaker 2 (01:33:41):
I'll let you know next week. I got to do
the update.

Speaker 1 (01:33:43):
Yeah, you will have the update next week. But I
would think that Boyings will in the probably the top
in the top ten for sure.

Speaker 3 (01:33:49):
A company I believe Salesforce is in there too, right,
the sales Force. Yeah, Salesforce briefly tied it's all time
high this week and bounced off of it and then
really have ended up the week that well. But Salesforce
ended up being a beneficiary off of the AI agent
model because they they actually would have somehow benefited from

(01:34:09):
deep seek, so they were actually kind of they held
in there pretty well.

Speaker 1 (01:34:13):
Yeah. I saw that. I saw that. I listened to
a couple of the articles and read a couple of
articles about how their benefit fitting from this deep seek thing.
And I don't understand it.

Speaker 3 (01:34:23):
I think it's because they use AI agents and it
doesn't necessarily matter to them whether they're using a chat
GBT model or a deep seek model.

Speaker 5 (01:34:30):
Explain that a little bit.

Speaker 2 (01:34:31):
What's an AI agent.

Speaker 3 (01:34:32):
An AA agent is something that would do tasks for
you that would take three to four hours to three
to four days, right.

Speaker 2 (01:34:38):
So Dave, rather than on chat GBT, you ask it
a question, it comes up with the answer. It gives you,
you know, from a couple of different articles. You tell it, hey,
I need you to build me in Excel sheets, here's
my data points, and it will start working on it
for you, give you an answer in about three to
four hours.

Speaker 1 (01:34:52):
That's aging.

Speaker 3 (01:34:52):
Yeah, I suppose it's long term project. So you'd like, hey,
I need you to build me an app.

Speaker 1 (01:34:57):
So that's what salesforce dot com does well.

Speaker 3 (01:35:00):
One of the examples of the commercial is AI agents
that they would do. Like Matthew McConaughey talks about how
AI agent could help you book a reservation at a
at a restaurant, and if the AI agent knows that
it's raining, it won't book it outside in a restaurant
that'd be outside side, and it could literally buy vacations
for you. It could do everything for you, and it

(01:35:21):
confirms it with you, of course, but it does all
the clicking, it puts your credit card information, and it
does everything for you.

Speaker 2 (01:35:28):
So it's going to be really good for anybody that's
indecisive out there.

Speaker 1 (01:35:30):
Again, do this for me again. This is a computer
technology thinking is smarter than me, which does not sit
well with me. I had a little experience with that
on Friday, and it did not play well with me.
I did not like it telling me what to do.
But then I've always had a problem with authority figures,
and maybe that's what it is. Maybe it's the whole
authority figure thing. Anyway, we want to be happy, and

(01:35:54):
we want to be healthy, because if we're not healthy,
we're not happy. Right burg, Financial, what we're really trying
to be.

Speaker 3 (01:36:02):
Is profitable for you next week.

Speaker 1 (01:36:08):
M m mmmmm

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