Money Matters: Market Highs, Economic Worries & Political Impact

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:04):
Good morning everybody. It's that time once again, Sunday morning,
eight o'clock. It's the Money Matters Show. Dean Greenberg and
the rest of the gang will be here for the
rest of the two hours to talk to you about
the markets, what we're doing, how we're investing, how we're
helping people try to navigate, what's going on. It's been tough, man.
I'm not gonna say it has up, down, up, down.
You know, it's been all around. We got a lot

(00:25):
of political news out there. We got economic news, but
you know, if you undress it all, you pretty much
see pretty good economy. But you have high interest rates,
high debt, you've got political situation that you got obviously
one side always saying no, no, no, and you've got
the Trump and the Doge Committee just cutting, cut and cutting,
saying we are going to get to where we need

(00:47):
to be, which obviously is slashing and getting us to
where we're cutting our expenses, but by starting by cutting
our fat and cutting the fraud and cutting the things.
Anyone that's against that is just purely hatred for Donald
Trump and can't see the forest through the trees, because

(01:09):
at the end of the day, what they're doing. I'll
be it quickly, i'llbe it, maybe a little careless in
some situations, they're doing what needs to be done. And
I'm gonna explain to you why, and a little bit
I'm gonna explain to you also why the Democrats agree.
They just don't want to admit it. This week was

(01:30):
a down week. The Dow down two and a half percent,
the S and P was down one point seven percent,
then NAZACH was down two and a half percent. They
wrestled two thousand was down three point seven percent, and
the equal weighted S and P which was only down
point seven percent, so they outpaced everybody else for the year. Dow,

(01:53):
SMP of both and the RSP, the equal weighted S
and P five hundred or all up two percent, NAS
some one, and the Wrestle two thousand, which is the
smaller companies are down one and a half percent. As
you know, the Moneymatter Show is sponsored by Greenberg Financial Group.
Greenberg Financial Group is a registered investment advisory with the

(02:14):
SEC and the members of CIPIK. On the show, we
talk about different products, different strategies. We give you our ideas.
Everything has risk. We highly suggest you understand risk prior
to investing, whether it's what we say, somebody else says,
what you read, what you hear. Just remember everything has

(02:37):
some type of risk. The way you smooth out risk
is by allocations, understanding where they fit and how they
how they go. The more allocations, the more diversification, the
more your risk gets spread out. That's not just in
individual stocks. It's also with bonds, it's also with gold,

(02:57):
It's also the different industries, it's also the different places
in the world. You know, you just look at it
and diversify, and that is what usually reduces your risk.
That doesn't mean that you don't have risk, because you
always will. So as we move forward, what's our stands well,

(03:19):
my stance from a money manage, the standpoint are still
the same mitigating risk. I have not seen the market
decline to the point of seven, ten, twelve or fifteen percent.
We could go down fifteen percent if I look at
the charts, we can go back down to that fifty
two hundred area on the S and P five hundred

(03:39):
were about at six thousand right now. So if you
take eight hundred points that that's another twelve percent to
self from where we are, which means we could probably drop,
you know, twelve fifteen percent. All right, That's how I
look at it. If if you know, I hope it
doesn't happen. I don't want it to happen, but it

(04:00):
can happen. And if it does happen, then that we're
going to be all over buying. But I'll probably be
a buy away before that. I mean, I think I
think that fifty eight hundred, fifty eight to fifty levels
a good place to look. Then I think fifty seven
hundred or so on the S and P. Five hundred
is another good place to look. Fifty four hundred to
fifty two hundred is I think that you jump back

(04:23):
in anless something you know, really changes. If something really changes,
then there's there. But remember, industrates can come down a lot.
The Federal Reserve, if we're running into a problems with
the economy, which is what usually brings stocks down like this,
can go ahead and lower interest rates a lot. We
have an administration that will do what they need to

(04:45):
to keep the economy going. In the meantime, if they're
saving money and doing the things that's saying they're going
to do, and if they're going to drill and open
up you know, the drilling, the drilling of pipelines and
start delivering oil to India and different places in Europe

(05:06):
and natural gas. Those prices are gonna come down. If
energy prices come down, that's inflationary. That will help us out.
That will cut inflation. Energy price is a big proponent,
just like food prices are part of the food prices
going higher because energy prices are higher. As they have
to transport food to different places in the country, it
costs money. If he does what he says he's gonna do,

(05:29):
and he's gonna bring companies back to UH, to UH
to the USA and start doing some manufacturing here and
they don't have twists, they don't have things like that,
that's gonna be positive too. That will help the economy.
Everything that we can do can eventually help the economy.
You know, if you look at what's going on, and

(05:51):
people that know me know I vote by one of
who I think is gonna make the economy and keep
the best and keep cap going. That's how I vote,
you know, probably you know, when you look at social issues,
people are pretty much in the middle. But I don't
understand how people give up the idea that we don't

(06:12):
need to be number one in the economy, and we
don't need to be number one in technology, but they
say they do, but they don't know how to get there.
They don't want to actually, you know, put the cards
on the table and say so if the economy's number one,
which most people agree it is, they just hey Trump,
so they just say, oh, I'm not going to vote
for him. You know, the Biden didn't have our economy

(06:32):
going okay, He just didn't race for going high. There
was no reason, no way, no game plan to bring
it down. We have an administration right now that is
doing everything to have a game plan to bring it down.
And the first thing they're doing is making us have
a smaller government. There's very few people over the last

(06:55):
twenty five years of my life that I talked to
that said they've enjoyed a bigger government. Everyone said they'd
rather have less. A smaller government. Everyone said they'd rather
have and I arrest that, you know, is smaller. They
always talked about, you know, having a smaller people in

(07:19):
Washington and saying, why do we need so many people
running things? And there's just so much fat And that's
so true with most state and government agencies. Instead of
getting rid of they just keep increasing the budgets and
keep increasing spending and keep increasing hiring, so people have

(07:41):
to do as much work and then they can't get
rid of them. And that is not a recipe for success.
I can't tell you how many people say, oh, you
can't run a country like a business. I always say
why not? And the reason I always say why not

(08:09):
is because countries can go bankrupt, Countries can not have
enough money to pay for their entitlements. It's happened in
the last ten years. Both France, Spain and Greece have

(08:30):
had problems paying to the retirement that everyone is supposed
to just get because they live in those countries. They've
had to reduce payments to people. Greece was the worst.
People were concerned, they couldn't get the money out of
their banks. Their retirement checks got cut because they couldn't

(08:51):
afford it, They couldn't afford their debt. Why do you
think it can happen to America? This is the name.
The number one thing that people are hoping to haven't
happened to the USA is that economically we get weak,
that we get overburdened with the amount of money we owe,

(09:14):
and thus we don't pay our bills. We sink like
a rock. Now, obviously we're going to always try to
do everything we can to make sure that's right. But
if you keep going and then we're thirty five trilling
and we go to forty trillion fifty trillion, you can't
just keep putting paper out at the levels they are

(09:35):
and not make changes. Right now, the markets are telling
us we're okay, that they like what's going on, and
that is why the markets for the most part, have
been trending higher even in the face of taris, because
the markets are telling us, which they always go ahead

(09:56):
and look out into the future, and the markets are
basically saying, hey, we can handle the tariffs, and maybe
they won't be equal tariffs might be the right way
to go. Bringing business back to the USA is good.
The trick is finding enough employees good employees. Are we

(10:19):
going to have to go ahead and say, hey, you're
got to have to go work if you want to
get paid. And that's what's going to come back to
it help small businesses, help hiring practices. If you lower
taxes for corporations, they make money, they can hire more,
they can grow more if they're going ahead and able

(10:39):
to export because it's not going to cost them as
much in tarifs because we sort having a much better
equal way of doing it and people can buy stuff
in the USA. That's good for all these corporations. I
like the idea what we're doing in Mexico. I know
people are denying it, but I believe that we are
in there helping Mexas go take down the cartels, make

(11:05):
them realize that we don't need the Chinese in there
helping the cartels do whatever they're doing with the fetanol
and all. But we don't need that. And it looks
like whatever's going on, it's having an effect because you
hear people denying all the USA is not in the
America's not in their helping, which tells me they are
in their helping, which tells me that we are doing

(11:27):
the things that we need to do. Look at the
border crossings. Now, obviously they'll figure out another way. They'll
try to come across in boats into the to the
shores that there are less and less people and no
one's there. But maritime is going to have to go
ahead and keep an eye on it and take care
of it. And make sure that we're not being infiltrated

(11:48):
from the other parts of our borders. So as we
go forward, here we see a good economy. We see
straight said, if we have a private can come down,
but we are going to try to get them down,
and they will come down when we see inflation come down.
And how we're going to get inflation down. When we

(12:09):
get inflation down, it's because we're gonna have to get
energy prices down. That's where the start is, and that
food prices can come down, but it takes time. It's
been thirty days since he's been in office. But boy
do they want to rake him over the coals. Boy
do they want to say he's not doing a good job.
Boy they want to say he's out of his mind.
Oh an Alon and everything else. But you know what

(12:30):
I love is that the courts are starting to go
ahead and say, yes, you have no right to stop
those looking into the records. I just cannot believe that
people are upset about us looking into the records. Well,
they're there, private there everyone. You know, what do you
think that the Democrats don't have access to everything we do?

(12:52):
They talk about the irs. We don't want them to
have an IRS, the ability to see the records in IRS.
Do you remember what they did to the party. Do
you remember the Republicans and Conservatives that were were just
investigated and and and audited by the I R. S
over and over again. Do you think that was right?

(13:12):
Of course it wasn't right. We are hearing things that
the that the just the person, the average person saying,
oh my god, how could they handle this? How could
they get rid of the iOS? How could they go
ahead and put the Department of h of Education back
to the states. How could they do this to the

(13:34):
Department of Energy? How could they do this? How could
they do that? You know what? How about saying, let's
do it, let's see what happens, and if it's not working,
let's change it. Let's cut down the size of government,
let's get in better people that know how to work
and do the right jobs. And we're going to just
keep hearing from the other side, well, you know, you're

(13:56):
getting rid of all these air traffic controllers. No that's
not true, but you know you're going to keep hearing
that because that's a good rhetoric. As you know, we've
had some obviously aviation disasters, but at the end of
the day, you're going to make misstakes. They're gonna make
some mistakes. I'm not gonna say they're not. Some of

(14:18):
the things are hair brained ideas. I'm not gonna say
they're not. I love ideas, though, I love big ideas.
I love looking at things and seeing if we can
change it. Because if we can change things and make
it better, the only people that can do that are
the people in charge that are intelligent enough to do it.
Or we've heard for the last fifty years, we can't

(14:41):
change this, we can't change that. We can't change this,
we can't change that. Oh no, we got to get
a bigger government. The government will help you. Put your
hand out and the government will help you. Oh, it's
not your fault that this is this. It's not your
fault that you're in that situation. Well, we'll give you money,
don't worry about it, we'll take care of you. That's
not a way a country can survive. That's a socialistic country.

(15:04):
And I know most people don't want that. They want
to be able to have opportunities to exceed and excel
and be able to see whatever level they are. But
human nature is not going to allow everyone to exceed
to expectations of what they dream about, because not everybody
who's DNA is made up to do that. A lot

(15:24):
of people are made up to work for people. That's
the way it is. They can't handle they can't handle
having their own company. They think they can till they can,
but then they can't make a payroll, they can't pay
the taxes, they can't do the things that need to
be done and to put the hours in time in.
People are inherently lazy. For the most part. People are complainers.

(15:45):
People are in visionaries. They are we need all types
of people. The administration is built on visionaries right now.
Whether you like the way they're doing it or not,
at least they're trying to do something. And everybody that
I talked to on the left, they say, could you
please give me do me a favor. Stop telling me

(16:06):
how bad it is and how unconstitutional is and this
agently and that agency and he's crazy and he's a
dictator and he's a Nazi and all this stuff. What
you can tell me is what the problem is and
what's your solution to fixing the problem, which, by the way,
you've had just as much time as Democrats and liberals

(16:29):
to do that and recognize it. But you haven't done anything,
And I say, give me your solution. Well, I wouldn't
do this, and I wouldn't do that, and we can't
survive this. And I can't believe you believe that this
is okay. I say, I believe what's okay is the
fact that we don't know everything that's going on, and
that's someone that's trying to do something. I'm okay with

(16:51):
that as long as when they recognize there is a
problem or a mistake, they fix it. We're in a
scenario right now, okay, that the end of this is
gonna either be fantastic or disaster. But if we fight
each other on it, it's gonna be very difficult to
get to where we need to be. If Congress can't

(17:13):
come up with bills to support the agenda, then how
do we know it's ever gonna work. I'm all about Hey,
if it doesn't work, you fail. Guess what now it's
the Democrats for a chance. But at least we've opened
up the work the papers. Alose, we opened up the
door to take a look at what's wrong. You know,
I see this thing that goes around and it just

(17:35):
makes me mad that they keep, you know, all these
people lives lives lies about Social Security and people over
one hundred hundred and twenty five hundred and fifty. Hey,
no one's not denying though, that there's people on the
Social Security role that have that that had been born
in those years that is so long ago. But they're
still on there. And these people fail to read the

(17:58):
whole article. They say, yes, there is fraud, okay, but
it's not going to amount the most. Yes, there are
people on that roll. I don't think they're getting paid.
I don't think anyone's getting those checks they're on there.
But they their excuse was it would cost nine million
dollars to get eighteen million people off that register role. Well,

(18:24):
that doesn't make any sense. Why would it cost nine
million dollars to erase people's names that are dead and
not and are too old to be on there. So
it doesn't even look like the possibility of them getting checks.
I don't think they're getting checks. No one said they
were getting checks and cashing checks. But we know this fraud,

(18:44):
and what the article says is, yes, this fraud, but
this is peanuts compared to the Medicaid for it. And
this is a reporter that's a Democrat saying that. But
the people commenting on this are refused to read anything
other than the fact that maybe those people aren't getting
those check the cash. Okay, So what happens is the
medicaid fraud is huge. I've seen Democratic senators talk about

(19:09):
I have said for years we've got at least fifty
billion a year that goes to Medicare fraud, and now
I'm hearing up to seventy five to one hundred billion
dollars a year. But yet no one, not one of them,
has tried to come up with a bill to fix it.
They just leave it there. They just leave it and
keep there and just say there's nothing they can do

(19:30):
about it. Well, at least we're trying to do something
about it. No one wants to take away Medicaid. Nobody
wants to take away Medicare, Nobody wants to take away
Social Security. But the same article, which people refuse to
read because it's probably is too long for most people
to comprehend what's going on. But as the article goes on,
the person who is liberal basically says, don't think for

(19:53):
one minute don't think for one minute that if we
don't do something, social Security will not survive the way
it is. If we don't do something, social Security will
not survive the way it is. So they have to
do something. So the same people that are talking about

(20:15):
live lives lives are just worried about that, have no
no solution to the fix that. The article that they're
calling out Trump on right, it's telling you this fraud.
But the bigger frauds are Medicaid and if we don't
do something, it's gonna collapse. So I always bring that

(20:38):
up and tell me, how do you want to handle this? People?
How are we gonna have We all know for the
last twenty five years we've made changes. It was sixty five,
that sixty five and a half, sixty six, sixty six
and tens now you know sixty seven and thinks the oldest.
Right now, they're gonna have to push the age back.
They're gonna have to do something if we do not
find something. But if we can cut out fraud, if

(20:59):
we can get those people off the registration roles, and
we know the people that are getting paid or the
people that's supposed to get paid, if we have the
corporations and health industry actually recording Medicaid the way they're
supposed to be, because if you start listening to people
with the Medicare now unh United Healthcare is being investigated

(21:23):
because what I am understanding is that they get paid
more for a patient if they put upcode. It's called upcoding,
and where they have to like a higher level of
care that they need, so they get paid more from
the government to take care of them, and a lot
of times they don't even need it. You ever, notice
you go there and you go for all these tests

(21:45):
down and you do all these things. Well, you know,
I kept thinking, like, you know, it's probably because everyone's
trying to help each other make sure that they stay
there because courts will come down. Well, you know, this
upcoding thing is a serious deal.

Speaker 2 (21:57):
You know.

Speaker 1 (21:58):
It's like when you own a restaurant, right, you know,
people think the only way you steal is when people
go ahead and just steal money from you. Obviously that's
one way, but you know they get around that now
because there's not a lot of money because of because
there's a lot of credit cards, not so much cash anymore.
So what do they do. They put a what an

(22:20):
extra shot in a one shot a one shot drink,
they make it heavy. Oh, I'll give you a bigger tip. Oh,
as they walk by, they take a little food here,
they take a little food there. They take you know,
they eat this, they eat that. Oh they know if
they they if they if something happens and someone's not
happy with the pu with what they get, they bring

(22:40):
it back. The people get a new one, and then
what that goes in the back and they can eat
it that. You know, you eat the food, you're pour
heavier drink. You do things like that that would cost
the restaurant money. That's stealing from the owner. But the
people working, they don't think it's stealing. It's okay. You know,
they're the ones that are making all the money.

Speaker 3 (23:00):
You know what.

Speaker 1 (23:01):
I Meanwhile, you know you look at everything and uh,
a minimum wage has gone through through the roof, and
everything else is happening. So what I'm saying is, at
the end of the day, our markets are in good shape.
I can, I can. I'm not gonna be a big
buy until we see a ten twelve fifteen percent pullback,
which means that it would be the low fifty fifty

(23:23):
four hundred on the S and P. And I'm not
gonna go go aggressive, you know, until until I until
I see us pull back more. I start seeing interest
rates come down, all right, because inflation is getting uh
uh covered up, uh being reduced. We start seeing that
with a good economy, we're gonna be in great shape.

(23:44):
Do I believe this administration can do it? Yes? Am
I am I pulling for them? Yes? I am tied
of people always putting everything down without solutions. I suggest
when people start complaining and bitching, say one thing, what
is your solution? Why having you done it? And you
all know and I agree with me that there is fraud,

(24:05):
there's ways to fix it. If we start there, then
we know what we can do on the rest of
the entitlement programs and the rest of the economy and
the rest of the things and the rest of the
government to keep us safe, cost us less, lower taxes,
and make everybody happy again. We'll be back. This is
the moneymut of show. I can't tell you how much

(24:25):
I appreciate you listening and coming and seeing us and
doing business with us. Welcome back, everybody. This is the
money mount of show. This is the in Greenberg Dave
Show with Dylan Greenberg.

Speaker 3 (24:39):
And Todd Glick, got the kids back from the mountain.

Speaker 1 (24:43):
Everyone back, everyone's here, and the market goes down.

Speaker 3 (24:46):
Nothing broken.

Speaker 2 (24:47):
That was the key down the mountain and the market
headed with us.

Speaker 3 (24:50):
Yes. Yeah, the last week you were going down. This
week the market was going down.

Speaker 1 (24:55):
Yes, easy with that.

Speaker 3 (24:57):
Yeah to Califolia, you get just okay.

Speaker 1 (25:01):
Anybody getting their bone broken.

Speaker 3 (25:03):
Friday was the worst day in twenty twenty five, right,
first day, worst day.

Speaker 2 (25:07):
This year, makes it sound really important.

Speaker 3 (25:10):
The interesting part about it is on Wednesday got to
get screwed up because Monday was a holiday, so the
first day of the week was Tuesday. On Wednesday, the
S and P five hundred hit a new all time high.
Didn't followed by the worst day this year.

Speaker 1 (25:25):
It'll be very interesting technically going into next week. Do
we rally like we've been rallying after every big time
down or will we or is it going to continue down?
My guess is they're going to try to bring it
up a little bit and going down. I think we're
in the process of moving down. I've been saying this
for a while though.

Speaker 3 (25:44):
Yeah that's true, that's true, But.

Speaker 1 (25:46):
I keep saying I don't want to get excited about
jumping in until we get down seven, ten, twelve percent
the more. Then I will be excited about going in,
because now you know, if we start seeing inflation and hesitated,
we start seeing a slow down a little bit, we
can bring the interest rates down without spurring on inflation,

(26:08):
and all these things that he's trying to.

Speaker 3 (26:10):
Do will just work out perfectly, and we're going to
have some pain first. I'm with you, and the S
and P five hundred two point two percent off of
it's all time high two point two percent is nothing.

Speaker 1 (26:20):
We go down twelve it brings us down. You remember
were looking at chart. It brings us down about that
fifty two hundred level that, yeah, fifty two hundred, if
you look at the charts, would be it's about fifteen
percent from the old time from where we watched sixty
one something.

Speaker 3 (26:34):
Yeah, we're six thousand right now roughly.

Speaker 1 (26:36):
Yeah, so fifty two hundred doesn't it's not even It
seems bad because we'd lose money, right right, But fifty
two hundred and the scheme of the whole thing is
nothing because by the time we come back afterwards and
things are going for the next year, two years, three years,
you'll see yourself probably that you know, we could. I'm
gonna say eighty five hundred to ten thousand by the
time he's done with this.

Speaker 3 (26:56):
Nice thing about that this time of the year, everybody's
so busy with their cat and getting their ten nine
ice together and all that. The market.

Speaker 2 (27:04):
Yeah, maybe so. One of the people that we follow
that we follow research on, they said that they have
an expectation of around sixty eight hundred by the end
of the year. So could definitely see it one way
or the other, you know, fifty two or sixty eight.
We've seen the last two years where we expected the
market to drop and it just continued to climb higher.
So potentially that's what we see. I think what the

(27:24):
catalyst could be for the market to continue higher is
that we haven't seen the housing data really slow down
in the CPI have not There is that lag effect
that we've talked about that should eventually be showing up
at some point and help inflation continue to edge lower.
And if we do have that edge lower in inflation numbers,
that could help the Fed need what they need to

(27:45):
see for cutting again, and that could be I don't.

Speaker 1 (27:48):
Know what the FED. I don't know what the FED
is on board, off board, don't I don't know. You
listen to the FED. I think they're in a quandary
right now.

Speaker 4 (27:56):
I think they're most hesitant about tariffs and if he
goes through with any of the tear so he's talking about.
So they're being on playing the more cautious side than
they were before. I mean, he's talking about just every
other week there's a new tariff that he could implement it.
I mean he talked about the automobile one that could
go into play April second. So the Fed's saying, Okay,
maybe we don't have to do anything. We have to

(28:17):
just kind of wait and see until April second.

Speaker 5 (28:20):
For the new ones.

Speaker 1 (28:21):
It's just interesting because they say they're not political right,
they're a political correct. But we kept saying there was
no reason for them to lower interest rates before, but
they did at times that we never thought they would,
right before the election, and aggressively, aggressively right before the election.
Once you turned out, it didn't help because interest rates

(28:43):
actually went up after September. They've done nothing but gone higher.
They were much better off to leave interest rates just
where they were until we saw inflation go down.

Speaker 3 (28:53):
Right In a reminder, the Fed only control short term
interest rates. It's long term interest rates that ride the market.
That's what the that's the rates is going higher. Mortgages
and things of that nature.

Speaker 1 (29:03):
Well, mortgages are not helping people right now, you know,
and until mortgage rates can come down where people and
you know, people say, well, you know, you know, rates
used to be at seven percent, eight percent, it was
never a problem. But that million dollar house is only
two hundred grand. Okay, that's what people forget. You can't

(29:24):
get the mortgage rates are only a function of what
people can afford, which I don't understand why the mortgage
industry as it come up with products that came like
they did before, where they can give people, hey, I'm
going to give you a two percent lower right now
to get the in for the next three years, but
then it can adjust up.

Speaker 3 (29:43):
Give people they definitely have that, but it costs money. No, no, no,
My daughters, my daughter's in this process of buying a
house right now. And there's a relatively new product called
the three two one God you probably heard of that. Yes,
four percent, the first year, five percent, the second year
six percent, the third year and then seven and as
data seven.

Speaker 1 (30:02):
Forever it's buying, you have to pay for it out, Yes,
you do it. Not wrong, You're wrong, I'm not wrong.

Speaker 3 (30:08):
Yeah, I know.

Speaker 1 (30:08):
I'm right.

Speaker 5 (30:08):
She's going through that process right now.

Speaker 3 (30:10):
So're going.

Speaker 1 (30:10):
I've seen it. I've been talking to the guys doing
the mortgages. It costs money to bring the rates down.

Speaker 4 (30:17):
Well, speaking of the three general, I mean, the existing
home sales were down four point nine percent last month,
and that's more than what they thought would be two
point six percent. So I mean existing home sales are dropping, yeah.

Speaker 2 (30:28):
Just slightly, though, I mean they're still pretty strong.

Speaker 3 (30:31):
Yeah.

Speaker 4 (30:31):
Twenty nine percent of it is all cash buyers. Yeah,
twenty eight percent of those buyers are first time buyers,
which is low. Okay, they're still struggling. Forty percent is
the average of first time home buyers. So they're still
struggling in that area. But the majority makeup all cash buyers,
which makes sense. They don't care about rates.

Speaker 3 (30:48):
To what you're just talking about, Dylan is exactly right.
Home sales fell about five percent in January. Homes for sale,
the number of homes for sale increased three point five
percent month over a month, seven eighteen percent year over year,
because you may recall a year ago, nobody wanted to
sell their house. They were in love with their mortgage. However,
get this, even though we've got seventeen percent more homes

(31:10):
on the market, the median price of a home sold
in January was an all time record high. Yeah.

Speaker 2 (31:16):
I saw that report too, and that was kind of
hard to believe when you first set.

Speaker 3 (31:20):
But you all time record high almost four hundred thousand dollars, Yes,
almost one hundred thousand dollars nationally.

Speaker 2 (31:25):
And I think that just speaks to the fact that
there is such a shortage in the demand four houses
versus what the supply is. So there is that just
pure law of supply and demand.

Speaker 4 (31:34):
It's interesting too, because the date also was home sales
between like one hundred thousand two hundred fifty thousand dropped
one point two percent, while homes over a million rose.
Those sales rose over twenty seven percent.

Speaker 3 (31:44):
That pribly could there's more homes over a million than
there were in the pure homes under.

Speaker 5 (31:50):
You're buying, those increasing over twenty seven percent, and last year.

Speaker 1 (31:53):
Is a lot for the MIDI Yeah, I don't know
what how she would get for one hundred and fifty
thousand dollars right now.

Speaker 5 (31:57):
Not right here in like Arkansas.

Speaker 2 (31:58):
Yeah, you'd be in like West Virginia a tiny house.

Speaker 3 (32:02):
Now you can buy a really, really nice house in
South Dakota. For my hometown with thirteen hundred people in
eastern South Dakota, you can buy a mansion. Yeah for
that kind of money.

Speaker 2 (32:12):
Just gotta love the winters.

Speaker 3 (32:14):
Yeah, gonna be a winter person, right, and you've heard
summer winters.

Speaker 5 (32:18):
Well.

Speaker 2 (32:18):
Then we also got the PMIS this week, and that
was the other economic data that came out on Friday.
Those were largely not terrible in the manufacturing front. But
we are a services economy, and I know Trump's trying
to make us a manufacturing but we're probably long past
that boat has sailed. We're probably going to be a
services economy from here on out. That's just what happens
when you become a really developed economy. And the fact

(32:39):
that seventy percent of our economy is services and that
came into contraction territory for the first time in a while,
that led to some of the fear that we saw
on Friday.

Speaker 3 (32:48):
I think that was probably the catalyst for the continuation
of the Thursday selling, you know the Thursday selling would Walmart? Yeah,
that was a big Walmart just just to ignite, did
that if you've got the biggest retailer, well second biggest retailer.
Did you see where Amazon passed them in revenue? Amazon
passed Walmart in total revenue for the first time last year.

Speaker 1 (33:09):
Yeah, but you and H is what started the market
going down on Friday. The doll was down and the
S and P was up when the market opened.

Speaker 3 (33:17):
Up on Friday. Yeah, but you and H was good
for one hundred points of the dest It.

Speaker 2 (33:22):
Was more than that on the open It was what
I think what David's pointing at is the fact that
Walmart is saying that the consumer is not going to
be buying as much as we had expected, and they're
pointing to that guidance the same way that we look
at like a FedEx for an international play on a
barometer of the international economy.

Speaker 1 (33:37):
Well, they're saying there type of people that go to
Walmart don't have the money, and they're the ones that
are getting hit the most. That a blue collar to
lower income people that go to the Walmart's they don't
have and they are cutting back because the prices are
too high. That's what's going on.

Speaker 3 (33:54):
You probably remember back in November, Walmart and Target both
said they'd cut back buying for christ Us because they
expected it to be well, it was pretty good Christmas.

Speaker 2 (34:03):
Yeah, they reported really good quarter four reports. It's just
that their guidance it wasn't good and that's why they.

Speaker 3 (34:08):
Found still think it is going to go down. I
think they were maybe a little early on the right.
Christmas would be a bus but they're thinking. They're still
thinking that.

Speaker 1 (34:15):
And then credit card debt has gone up.

Speaker 3 (34:18):
Yep.

Speaker 1 (34:19):
People have to pay the credit card debt before they
pay the others and it's catching up to them now
when they're paying the minimums and they're paying twenty twenty.

Speaker 2 (34:28):
And to your point, the consumer sentiment expectations for future
inflation was the highest it's been in the last twenty years.

Speaker 1 (34:35):
Now.

Speaker 2 (34:35):
The consumer is just the consumer, that's what they expect
the inflation to be. But you can see that the
retail retail person is kind of worried about the future
of like how much they can afford. So they're already starting.

Speaker 1 (34:45):
To cut back because they don't have the money and
they don't want to go bankrupt and I hope this
doesn't lead to more bankruptcies, but it probably will until
we had until we get our hands around the inflation
part of doing it. Think about how much it costs
just to go to dinner, now, just to go to lunch. Yeah,
I mean it should be. You like to go to
lunch for two people for fifteen to twenty bucks? Now
you know you get if you get out before fifty,

(35:07):
you happy.

Speaker 3 (35:08):
It's ridiculous.

Speaker 2 (35:09):
I went to a restaurant. They charged fifty cents more
if anything you bought was with eggs, because eggs is
so expensive right now, is that right? Yeah, fifty cents
per egg. If you had two eggs on your platter,
it's a dollar more.

Speaker 3 (35:19):
Now you talked about United Healthcare. We'll talk about that
if we'll come back great close to a break here
some time.

Speaker 2 (35:26):
And we'll also talk about the fact that we went
down to Rio Rico did a firefighter presentation educated about
financial literacy. We don't think that that's really taught in
this day and age in schools, and we try to
be that resource for the people that really needed. So
we'll talk a little bit about how we've been helping
there in an upcoming event in April that we're really
excited about.

Speaker 1 (35:44):
All right, we'll be right back. It's the Money Matter Show.
I can't tell you how much we appreciate you listening
and being part at the Greenberg Financial Network.

Speaker 2 (35:54):
Welcome back to the Money Matter Show. My name is
Todd Lick. I'm here with Dean Greenberg, Dylan Greenberg, and
David Shry. This week, the market actually went to an
all time high for the S and P five hundred
on Wednesday on the shortened holiday trading week, but ended
up selling off big time on Friday due to worsening
economic data that pointed to stickier than stickier than expected
inflation and the fact that we might not get lower

(36:16):
interest rates going forward. So we did see a market
sell off that largely started with Thursday on Walmart, pointing
to softer guidance on the consumer not expected to spend
as much money. So where do we go from here?

Speaker 3 (36:29):
Dave Dean talked about we don't follow the doubt because
it's only thirty stocks, and Dean mentioned one of those
thirty stocks and United Healthcare, which has was a big
problem on Friday and it's been a problem ever since
their CEO got gunned down in Manhattan. Back in December,
stocks down fourteen percent, then lost five percent on Tuesday

(36:50):
after employees alleged the company's laying off tens of thousands
of workers, and then lost another nine percent on Friday
to a fifty two weeks after The Wall Street Journal
reported the insurance is under investigation by the Justice Department.

Speaker 1 (37:05):
So it's almost like, why are they're in an investigation
for payments? Because there's a thing that's called upcoding, all right,
what I've heard of it, right, So what upcoding is?
It's pretty simple that if you have something going on
and you think there's something else, you upcode it to

(37:27):
a higher level of care. If you do, then they
get paid more per patient. I'm sure they're not the
only ones doing it. They've had to figure out a
way over the last ten years as they kept getting cut.
You know, the government's loved saying I'm cutting this, I'm
cutting that, I'm getting prices out. Well, our insurance isn't

(37:47):
going down. With Medicare, it just keeps going higher. Okay,
And you know what, if you get care, it's good.
What is going down? But what they've been doing is
and we all know this. You go in and you say, hey,
I got it, I gotta pain. Okay, let's go check
it out. I'll go see a cardiologist, go see this person,
go see that person. And I always said, oh, you know,

(38:08):
they're helping their friends out, you know, you know one,
you go for one, you go for three, and they're
doing it so they don't get sued. You know, they've
checked out everything. Well, now I realize it's the more
you go out there, the more you do this upcoding
allows them to make more money. And that's one of
the ways they're gonna say, you know what, we're gonna
cut back down on that a little bit. And if
they do, that's gonna go ahead and do what cut out.

(38:31):
I don't want to say that's fraud, okay, because you
don't know if it's right or wrong, but it will
cut down on expenses.

Speaker 2 (38:37):
Well, if you remember back in the pandemic, one of
the things that all the hospitals would do is say
that a person died from COVID because they get more
money from me. Sure it's a similar thing that you
would say about it per COVID death and people would
you know, spouses will say that they definitely did not
die from COVID, they fell off a ladder or something
like that, and they would still diagnose them with the
COVID deaths. So we know that hospitals and different doctors

(38:59):
they play those games with insurance because there's the games
to play.

Speaker 3 (39:03):
Yeah, it's certainly insurance medical and otherwise there's certainly something
that's affecting all of us right now. I mean, I
car insurance, home insurance, you name it, any kind of insurance.

Speaker 1 (39:15):
You know. Obviously, if we want better healthcare, we got
to get a hands around the fraud. We get hands
around the fraud, then then there's more money to be
able to go to the people that are doing the
right things.

Speaker 5 (39:26):
You know.

Speaker 2 (39:27):
And we have to change the healthcare system from being
a diagnostic type of system that actually wanting to help
and get better. It seems like the more and more
that they they'll give you these pills that come with
all these symptoms, that you have to have other pills
for to treat those symptoms.

Speaker 3 (39:39):
Exactly at the end of the big farm, right it's
a big circle, you know.

Speaker 5 (39:44):
But you know, I don't know.

Speaker 1 (39:46):
I'm not going to deny the fact that if I'm
not feeling good, or I'm in pain something. I don't
have a problem taking a little medication to feel better. Sure,
you know, you know it's about who gets hooked and
who doesn't get hooked. I mean, that's the proble. But
I mean, there is a way to make a medical
medical situation better.

Speaker 2 (40:05):
I think one of the examples was this company that
was Dave talked about it last week, that an opioid,
a new opioid being created that hasn't been created almost
in forty years. Yes, I forgot what the company.

Speaker 3 (40:16):
Was the name of the company, But it's those.

Speaker 2 (40:19):
Type of things that I also think with the advent
of AI, more and more of those type of new
revelations are going to come about.

Speaker 1 (40:26):
Well I can see, yes, I can see with AI, right,
you know, you kind of go into like a machine
and the AI just sou all these diagnostics on you
and it tells you what's wrong, Okay bye. By doing
this and doing that and with AI, I can see
them making the drug world even more efficient, you know

(40:47):
what I mean, instead of taking two or three things
for one, they can come up with say okay, you
need this, this and this, here's the one thing you need.

Speaker 4 (40:53):
Here's the combination That's what Larry Ellison, founder of Oracle,
was saying when they got that initial bid for the
five hundred billion dollars into AI, that it's really going
to help the healthcare industry. It's going to find stuff
faster than doctors ever could.

Speaker 3 (41:05):
We often thought that that's the primary beneficiary of AI
is going to be healthcare. Whatd be wonderful to be
able to go in and have a full body scan
and have a come bent and go, oh, you've got
to growth here in this then you know.

Speaker 4 (41:16):
And it's saying like there's been AI studies done on
like breast cancer patients or like they look to see
if they have it, and AI was able to find
cancerous cells about six months to a year before the
doctor would have been much smaller, better.

Speaker 2 (41:30):
Than the human eye.

Speaker 1 (41:31):
Yeah, well, I think and then what you're talking about
is exactly what I've always said. If we can get
to the point we can get a hands around medical costs,
we can now then use that money for preventive, right
and if we can do the preventive like that you
go into like a body scan and they can see
at the start of a cancer or a lung or something,
they can get treated way before it gets to the

(41:54):
point that, of course so much to have to have
operations and everything.

Speaker 2 (41:57):
And that's what's exciting about RFK getting in because there's
a lot of preventive things. There are just no brainers.
Like when we were in the pandemic, people should have
been going outside and getting sunlight, getting exercise. There's very
simple things to do that help with health and not
gaining weight. But and for some reason the society goes
against these things and.

Speaker 3 (42:14):
It became okay to get fat.

Speaker 5 (42:16):
There's a lot of things to.

Speaker 2 (42:17):
Day, but at the end of the day, there's a
lot of unhealthy societal things that just get progressed throughout everyone.
And so I think when you have from the very
top of leadership getting passed down throughout the entire health system,
things will actually get changed.

Speaker 3 (42:31):
I know you guys were just slammed this week with
free financial plans which we offer and if you haven't
done it, you probably should, you guys. I think there
was one day you had four appointments. That tell us
a little bit about what the scheduling is like for
that if someone would like to get one of the
free financial plans and any interesting things you're hearing in
these financial plans. Is there any common thing that you're

(42:53):
hearing that's bothering people or that people are concerned about.

Speaker 2 (42:57):
You talk to a lot of people, Yeah, I mean,
I mean everyone has a different things that We just
had a meeting that we went down to Rio Rico
and we talked about financial literacy on a very basic level.
And what we realized is everyone has unique needs. Everyone's
gonna have a question that's unique to them and that
they want to hear about. And so when you try
to hit generalities, it doesn't hit every single person, but

(43:20):
there's that one particular subject that someone cares about. So
that's really what I see in financial plans. Some people
worry about social security, some people worry about the current administration.
Some people are worrying about how tariffs are going to
impact it and things like that. There's a lot of
different worries out there, But at the end of the day,
the financial plan has been helping a lot of people
just come up with the first plan that they've ever
had in their lives.

Speaker 4 (43:40):
The most common worry is am I going to run
out of money? Am I going to live too long?
A run out of money?

Speaker 3 (43:45):
Sure?

Speaker 4 (43:45):
So that's the plan, helps show it for each year
that we plan, usually in the mid nineties, to whatever
age you are now, and shows how your plan will
do if you're going to run out of money, where's
the likelihood you run out of money based on your
spending habits and you travel and every other goal you
have during retirement. So it's a way to ease the mind.
But that is probably the most common goal our concerned.

Speaker 3 (44:07):
I've been working in financial services in Tucson for fifty
three years, and I think that one of the most
common things is do I have enough money to live
for the rest of my life? And of course the
response to dead is winning a die. You would give
us your day to death, we can do a much
better job. I think.

Speaker 2 (44:24):
Also what we've been striving here at Greenberg Financial is
to keep educating people because that education is not given
through the schooling system, and a lot of people just
get information from their parents, or their friends and family,
or the people at their work, and a lot of
bad decisions have been made because of that. So what
we do is obviously with our radio shows we try
to educate, but also our TV shows have been getting

(44:44):
a lot of traction for those people that want just
more of the generic information on how to build a
good financial plan from start to finish. But we're also
doing a lot of these seminars. We just went down
to Rio Rico and met with firefighters and teaching them
about financial literacy. We're also doing in April an event
where we meet with firefighters, police officers, everyone in the
public safety here in Tucson and helping them with financial

(45:06):
wellness as part of their three pillars that they're working on.
So really, if you ever do have a question about
simple stuff, give us a call. But also we have
website information where you can read up on our blogs,
on our YouTube page, we have our TV shows that
you can access and learn about more of the basic stuff.
So if you have a grandson or grandchild that wants
to learn more about that stuff, you utilize those resources.

Speaker 1 (45:28):
Educate people right now, it's one of the things that
you hear all the time right now is tariffs, tarriffs, tariffs, tariffs.
I gotta believe ninety percent of people don't even know
what the tariff is, Okay, I just do. They don't
know how they work, they don't know they have it
because they don't even realize that almost everything has a tariff. Well,

(45:50):
they hear is taxes. Trump's doing this, prices are going higher.
I can't afford it. He's an idiot. Okay, tariffs right
now basically mean every time we export stuff, they're putting
a tax on us that makes it more difficult for
us to do business other places. Okay, a lot higher tariffs,

(46:12):
taxes or tariffs or I don't want to do it
than we then we are charging people to us. So
when we go ahead and say we're going to put
a tariff on steel, that's to go ahead and protect
our steel industry in the United States of America. Now
they want to do equal which I thought was the
best answer of them all. You want to charge you
twenty five percent, We'll charge you twenty five percent. Who

(46:35):
is that going to affect more protected?

Speaker 5 (46:38):
Simple?

Speaker 1 (46:38):
Right? Then at the end of the day, it becomes
what you call a bargaining tool. Yep, to be able
to do it. You know, like him or not, he's
trying to equal out that America isn't the one that
has to go bankrupt because everyone takes from us. It's
like everything in life. If you go ahead and allow
people to do that, they love you until you have

(47:01):
no more to give to them. And once you have
no more to give to them, they don't care about you.
They go on to the next person that will give
to them.

Speaker 2 (47:09):
It's the prisoner's dilemma exactly.

Speaker 1 (47:11):
So do me a favorite. People understand that tariffs are
on us. People do it to us all the time.
We're just getting even back on the other side. It's
not that we want to just be isolationists, but we
do want to take care of America first by making
sure we're secure so we can help everybody else that's
out there. We'll be right back. Thank you and appreciating you.

(47:34):
Guys all listening to The Money Matter Show.

Speaker 4 (47:37):
Welcome back to the second hour of The Moneymatter Show.
I'm Dealing Greenberg here with Dave Schrew with Sebastian Borsini,
Todd Glick, and Dean Greenberg. For those of you just
tuning in, it wasn't a great week in the markets.
The NOW was down two and a half percent, the
S and P five hundred was down one point seven percent,
the NASDAK was down two and a half percent, the
Rustle two thousand was down three point seven percent, and
the equal Weight to SMP five hundred was down point

(47:57):
seven percent, So for the year, the Russell two thousand
and has now entered negative territory. The rest are up
one to two percent, so we're still doing all right
for the year, but it wasn't a great and the
equal weight is still now leading the way for the year.
So you can see that the equal weight did not
lose as much as the tech heavy stocks this week,

(48:19):
and Asdack down two point five, equal weighted only down
seventy basis points, so definitely a little bit of a
divergence there.

Speaker 3 (48:25):
Assets I had to call on Friday is the time
is a time by We're down two percent from the
all time high.

Speaker 2 (48:31):
You know Black, you know it had a quiet week.
That was down pretty big. Was Meta? Meta was down
seven percent, But that thing has just been going all
time high, all time high.

Speaker 3 (48:39):
Nineteen out of twenty days higher. I mean it was
last a week ago Friday.

Speaker 2 (48:44):
It just seemed like a big profit take week.

Speaker 3 (48:46):
We just bang, you just got yeah, got kicked hard.

Speaker 2 (48:49):
Right, And I think we saw that also with Amazon,
they were down roughly five All the mag seven's pretty
much had a difficult week, but Apple held in most
of the games that it had last week.

Speaker 3 (49:00):
The very volatile week for bitcoin, especially Friday. Friday was
a very volatile day for Rady day. Yeah, I looked
at it. It opened up around five hundred dollars, and
then the next tent, look, it's down fifteen hundred dollars.

Speaker 2 (49:12):
It was more than two thousand, and then that came back.

Speaker 3 (49:15):
It was up and end. It was up two thousand
on Thursday, and and then on Friday afternoon it just collapsed.

Speaker 2 (49:20):
And it collapsed on Friday.

Speaker 3 (49:21):
Now it's interesting because I think if you were there's
a pretty ninety six thousand on bitcoin is like a magnet.
It gets below that, bang, comes back to ninety six thousand,
gets above that bang, it's back at ninety six thousand.
Everybody knows that if it gets you know, ninety two,
ninety three thousand, you've got to be buying it, right,

(49:42):
It's going to be real interesting if it breaks below that,
if it were.

Speaker 2 (49:45):
To go to here one hundred, right, ninety two is
a huge levels, a huge level. It's finished the week
at ninety five six and ninety two.

Speaker 3 (49:54):
It was ninety five when I when the market closed
on Friday.

Speaker 2 (49:57):
Yeah, it's ninety five six right now, that's how all
it is, Yeah, for sure.

Speaker 3 (50:01):
But if it, if it, Todd, if it, if it
dropped below ninety, I think you might see a cascade
if they don't.

Speaker 2 (50:08):
If I think if it draws for ninety, you could
definitely see it at like seventy five thousand.

Speaker 3 (50:12):
Yeah, easy for sure, easy in a hurry. It's a
it's a big level.

Speaker 2 (50:16):
And I think you could say the same thing about
risk assets as a whole. I mean, if there's some
big levels coming up here.

Speaker 3 (50:24):
But the crazy thing about bitcoin is you're absolutely right
it should move with the risk stocks. But on Thursday,
the risk stocks got hammered and Bitcoin was up.

Speaker 1 (50:36):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (50:37):
I was like, what's going on here?

Speaker 6 (50:38):
What's the beta on something like FBTC? Do you have
any idea I could pull it up.

Speaker 3 (50:43):
In a minute here or the beta on bitcoin? Yeah,
that's interesting.

Speaker 5 (50:46):
I don't know.

Speaker 3 (50:46):
But what would you guess too.

Speaker 6 (50:48):
I'd guess like one point seven.

Speaker 3 (50:49):
Yeah, I think it's up one and a half to
two somewhere in there. While Todd's looking that up, we
you know, one of the catalysts for the decline on
Friday was or Thursday and Friday both days were down
big with Walmart their report. What'd you come up with
that point nine to five point nine to five, yeah,
which means.

Speaker 2 (51:10):
Well, it means it pretty much moves with.

Speaker 3 (51:12):
The S and P, which means is not even as
volatile as that's crazy.

Speaker 2 (51:16):
I mean again, FBTC has only been trading for almost
a year now, so it's not right. And if you
think about what bitcoin has done over the past year,
it was pretty much flat for from February to March.
Then it had that huge uh well man and then
had a huge run up, and then it's been flat
again for you know, six months, so it's gone up
and down a lot, but it hasn't actually done anything.

Speaker 6 (51:37):
We're finally starting to see options and derivatives on this,
and derivatives instruments like the structured products on bitcoin, which
in theory are supposed to create really right price stabilization.
We're not really seeing that. You know, it's still moving
up and down pretty quickly.

Speaker 2 (51:52):
But that goes in the face of a beta point
nine to five that is pretty stable, ass.

Speaker 3 (51:57):
Like that doesn't feel like Yeah, that fbt we see
you mentioned it's the Fidelity Bitcoin Trust, right, and it's
designed to mimic a bitcoin, so you can participate in
bitcoin without actually opening a coin base account and NYE
Bitcoin you can actually buy the Fidelity Bitcoin Trust.

Speaker 2 (52:15):
Yeah, and we put some clients in CBTJ, which is
a calum most structured protection ETF on bitcoin that offers
a one year performance target of around twenty percent downside
protection up to a cap of around fifty one percent participation.
And because bitcoin has gone down since the creation of that,
you almost get an even better price than the NAV
when it came out. So, and then for those who

(52:37):
don't know, is the net asset value of an ETF
or a closed end fund, And so that can be
at a premium or discount based on the underlying assets
in the fund. And so buying at premium is a
bad thing. Buying at discounts can be a good thing.

Speaker 3 (52:52):
And this structured product is something we're seeing a little
bit more of it. They've had them in the annuity
world for quite a while now starting to see them
in the ETF. And you mentioned it gives you the
ability to invest in bitcoin. The most you can lose
is twenty percent of your money period. That's the most
and that's what they aim. So the next twenty percent
from the original issue right, So if it's down five

(53:13):
percent now, the most you can lose is fifteen in
the theater, and of.

Speaker 6 (53:16):
Course it's not guaranteed, but it's a great way to
get your feet wet if you want some of that
Bitcoin exposure and your you don't want to lose.

Speaker 2 (53:23):
They also have, as day are saying, structure protection ETFs
on just Regular Spy or the small caps or the
QQQ and so if you wanted one hundred percent protection
but still want to participate in one of those indexes,
you could do so up to a cap of around
six to eight percent. And we're actually going to have
the Calamos team and the creator of these structured protection

(53:43):
ETFs on the show next week. We'll have a whole
twenty four minute segment with them talking about how he
came up with them, what he sees people using. We
have we've had some questions already brought into the show,
but if you have any questions about these products, please
write them into this week because we're going to be
doing the interview during the week next week and then
it will be on the show. So we're really excited
to have him on. It's a it's a revolutionary product

(54:05):
in terms of taking it out of just the annuity world,
putting it onto an ETF wrapper, and not having to
be locked into surrender periods. This is a really cool
tool to be able to use now.

Speaker 6 (54:15):
Really, if you have questions, contact at Greenberg Financial dot com.
Just email that one or give us a call five
two zero five four four four nine zero nine.

Speaker 3 (54:22):
Earnings are what drives the market. So when a company
like Walmart comes out and says they expect things to
be softening, that means softening earnings. One of the things
that's been driving this market is the consistent increase in earnings,
and that's that's allowed the market to get to a
price earnings ratio that's almost double normal. Now you didn't.

(54:45):
You haven't seen that since the late nineties. And the
reason he got that way in the late nineties was
the Internet revolution. Right now we're in the AI revolution,
so it's understandable that pees could be a little bit elevated.
But earning's driving market. On the Anuary first earnings for
the first quarter were expected to be up twelve point
two percent. Earnings for the first quarter, which of course

(55:07):
we're in right now, the first quarter, we're expected to
be up twelve point two percent that has been revised
down now to eight point five percent. That's the biggest
downward quarterly revision since the fourth quarter of twenty twenty three.
So that's that's analysts saying things are slowing down more
than we not accelerating as quickly as we thought. Things

(55:31):
are gonna be a little bit softer. And when I
saw that report, the one thing that came to mind, Okay,
that's the biggest revision since the fourth quarter of twenty
twenty three. Okay, how was twenty twenty four? And do
you remember how the market did in twenty twenty four? Yeah, decent, incredible.
Markt was incredible in twenty twenty four. So take it

(55:52):
with a grain of salt. Right, The last time somebody
talked like this was right before the market went up
twenty five percent.

Speaker 2 (55:59):
And we did have really strong earnings four quarter four
their companies.

Speaker 3 (56:03):
Reported Arnid are still coming in, sales, revenues still coming in.

Speaker 6 (56:07):
So it makes me think about like other areas that
are going to suffer though you know, the consumer is
going to be spending less at walmarts. Where else are
they going to be spending less?

Speaker 2 (56:15):
Maybe more of Well, I think what you saw of
that is with Draft Kings MGM, they were down six
and eight percent on Friday, probably because of that. If
the retailer, the smaller person isn't doing well, they're probably
not going to have money to do gambling and some
of those discretionary things like that, So that's potentially what
we saw. Some company that we did see have a
pretty big increase though on Friday, with Celsius. Celsius was

(56:38):
up almost thirty percent on Friday, somewhat of a short squeeze,
you could definitely say. They also have some talk about
buying a new energy drink that propelled their portfolio potentially,
But at the end of the day that stock had
sold off significantly from its all time highs. So it's
kind of just coming back to its two hundred day that.

Speaker 1 (56:56):
Was down.

Speaker 3 (56:59):
All time and it had gotten just crushed on concerns
about declining sales, and they reported a number that was okay.
It was it showed the sales had increased a little bit, okay,
and then the acquisition of this other energy company, which
is kind of a yawn, you know what.

Speaker 6 (57:16):
More So, the earnings showed that they were losing market share,
so which I think is why it prompted them to
buy buy something like this.

Speaker 3 (57:22):
And when you get it, when you get a stock
like that, it has dropped so dramatically in such a
short period of time, you're going to you're going to
find that uh uh. There's a lot of people who
have shorted that stock. A lot of people have sold
that stock without owning it in the hopes that they
could buy it back cheaper. Well, they remember, they've got
to buy it back. The problem with shortening the stock

(57:44):
is you have limited upside and unlimited downside that stock.
If you're short that stock, you've sold that stock that
you borrowed. If that stock starts to go higher, you
got to buy that back real quick.

Speaker 6 (57:57):
Stock that really got squeezed. If you guys remember Carvana,
right like, that stock was straighting around three hundred and
fifty dollars a share, came down all the way to
two dollars a share, yes, back to yes, you know,
two forty, and it's just gone hammered three hundred.

Speaker 3 (58:09):
I think the fifty two week high three hundred.

Speaker 6 (58:11):
Early down twenty percent on the week. Retail sales were horrible,
missed analyst calls, just not a good look.

Speaker 5 (58:18):
For him.

Speaker 3 (58:19):
I think they were there now about what twenty five
percent off or high.

Speaker 6 (58:23):
We were talking about the price to earnings ratio earlier today,
what was it?

Speaker 5 (58:26):
Like?

Speaker 3 (58:26):
Wow, that's the trailing price durningas ratio. The forward price
during each ratio, which is based upon analyst testaments which
can be wrong, is sixty five. But you're right the
trailing and what makes that happen? Right?

Speaker 6 (58:38):
What what makes the trailing price earnings ratio go up
the mount?

Speaker 3 (58:42):
If your earnings over the last twelve months have been
two cents and you think the earnings over the next
twelve months will be two dollars because things they've got.

Speaker 6 (58:51):
They find they finally started making some money, is what?

Speaker 5 (58:54):
Yeah?

Speaker 6 (58:54):
Thinking?

Speaker 3 (58:54):
Yeah, so you're right, the trailing price earnings ratio is
like twenty five thousand something like summer something ridiculous.

Speaker 2 (59:01):
Obviously, once you get it, once you get an E,
once you get a why don't you.

Speaker 3 (59:05):
Get an you got some problems? Yeah, because you got
a PE, then you don't have an E. Anybody's guess
as to what you're worth.

Speaker 2 (59:12):
A company that had a terrible Friday was block and
those who don't know they used to be SQ they're
no longer a t They are x y Z that
is their new ticker, and that this is cash app
for those who don't know, or Square Block and uh,
there was a lawsuit that people were reminded of that
Apparently they didn't do due diligence to keep records of

(59:34):
their customers that were with them. So they're going through it.
And Hindenberg kind of talked about this a while back
on a report and the Hindenburgh, for those don't remember,
is a short selling firm that once they get a
hand of you, it's kind of like the kiss of
death because they were right on a couple of companies
and now if they say anything, there's going to go down.
I think a company that got hit hard because of

(59:56):
Blocks dropped down on Friday was also PayPal, because PayPal
was down around six percent as well. Block is square right,
it's like our cash app.

Speaker 5 (01:00:05):
Yeah.

Speaker 6 (01:00:06):
I was talking to somebody I forgot who was it was.
I think it was my barber actually, and he says
that if anybody pays with a credit card and uses
that Square, he uses that Square title it's eight percent, right.
Why would I ever use that eight percent charge? It's
not eight percent on the consumer. But you know it,
consumer always bears a burden in my opinion. So what
does the barber do? He increases his.

Speaker 3 (01:00:28):
Price a little bit, right, But they charged you to
use that, I think.

Speaker 6 (01:00:32):
Most when it's when it's all said and done, those.

Speaker 5 (01:00:34):
Credit card credit cards all have a fee, I think,
not the credit card. It's like the credit card swiper.

Speaker 2 (01:00:39):
That that's basically how terrorifts work.

Speaker 3 (01:00:43):
Exactly, your's putting in terrifying you.

Speaker 6 (01:00:47):
Square put the terriff.

Speaker 5 (01:00:48):
Square's putting the terriff.

Speaker 4 (01:00:49):
Nicola remember Nicola went public through a spack when they
were popular back in June to twenty twenty. It is
filing for bankruptcy because they just can't do anything. It
filed for the spack. It did great because the founder
was saying all this great stuff. Turns out he was
committing fraud.

Speaker 5 (01:01:08):
It was all fake. He was all, just those true.

Speaker 6 (01:01:11):
Those are semi trucks, right.

Speaker 4 (01:01:12):
Yeah, the semi trucks are supposed to do zero missions
and all this stuff. And he said the company was
doing this and that and just kind of just messing
with it. And then it came out that he was lying.
He got convicted of securities fraud and wire fraud and
all that stuff in twenty two. Since then the company
is just tanked. The SPAC owner took over as a
CEO and he's been trying to keep it going. But
since twenty twenty two they've only produced six hundred trucks

(01:01:35):
as a as a public electric EV company. And now
they said they were trying to get funding for after
the first quarter this year and they can't, so they
got a file for bankruptcy.

Speaker 3 (01:01:45):
We've really scratched our heads about the viability of an
electric semi, but because of range, and.

Speaker 6 (01:01:54):
It was confirmed when the report of fraud came out.
So I don't know who's touching that.

Speaker 1 (01:01:57):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (01:01:57):
Well, the electric every vans around town make all the
sense in the world, but electric semis just make no sense.

Speaker 4 (01:02:04):
Yeah, it's like those little Amazon ones. I go around town,
that makes sense, But you're going across the country, you
gotta have a lot longer range.

Speaker 6 (01:02:11):
Remember Workhorse when they were supposed to take over the
US postal system.

Speaker 4 (01:02:15):
Yeah, that might be why Tesla has like they've been
messing around with that idea of the semi, but they
haven't really come to fruition.

Speaker 3 (01:02:21):
That's probably why you're gonna find some kind of a
battery out. I suppose if the entire bottom of the
trailer were batteries. But remember, the trailer is not the
The cab and the trailer are different pieces. It's gonna
be the trailer does not necessarily belong to the cab.

Speaker 5 (01:02:41):
Yeah, ownership, it's got to be on the cab.

Speaker 3 (01:02:43):
It's got to be on the cab. And there's just
very little space there, not even as much as a car.

Speaker 4 (01:02:47):
They got to make it those solar panels on the
cab and then it charges it while they drive.

Speaker 3 (01:02:50):
I guess, or solid state batteries or something. Just right now,
it just doesn't seem to make any sense.

Speaker 6 (01:02:54):
It's gonna be ivy.

Speaker 5 (01:02:55):
The diesel will be around for a while.

Speaker 3 (01:02:57):
Yeah, we've got the calendar and next week the on Friday,
we got the PC. Otherwise, pretty quiet week for the China.

Speaker 2 (01:03:09):
Well, I was just about to get talked to China,
but I didn't think did we talk about interest rates like,
because they kind of went down just a little.

Speaker 3 (01:03:15):
Basis got to getting their five basis point drop in
interest rates.

Speaker 2 (01:03:20):
But yeah, China, I mean, look, I was just pd
d ali baba. They just continue to rip. I mean
that's pretty much the darlings over there.

Speaker 3 (01:03:27):
Yeah, I think you got a few stocks driving.

Speaker 2 (01:03:28):
I really like by d though. I mean I wish
they weren't a China company. I would invest in them otherwise,
But I really like what they're doing. I think internationally
everyone seems to love them. They are a cheap ev
alternative to the Tesla vehicle. It seems like they're getting
a lot of traction worldwide now.

Speaker 6 (01:03:44):
Ali Baba, they got their real big push after they
released a report with Apple and saying that they were
going to implements AI into the Chinese Apple phones.

Speaker 3 (01:03:52):
I think they'd already gone from seventy five to one
hundred before that was ever announced.

Speaker 6 (01:03:56):
Right, They've had a good run. Yeah, I thought Alibaba
was the Amazon of China.

Speaker 5 (01:04:02):
What.

Speaker 2 (01:04:02):
Yeah, Well, they're a whole. It's a holding, it's a portfolio.
That's one of the things that is in Ali Baba's
holdings is like an Amazon like thing.

Speaker 5 (01:04:11):
Gotcha.

Speaker 3 (01:04:12):
It's a major conglomerate essentially. But yeah, the Chinese shock
mark up was up three percent. I think it's a
fifth straight week or maybe sixth straight wik it's up,
but nineteen percent this year. Yeah, we we just have
Chinese socks in our portfolios because there's just no transparency.

Speaker 6 (01:04:27):
Did you see who's buying Alibaba lately? Ryan Cohen?

Speaker 3 (01:04:31):
Oh yeah, there you go.

Speaker 6 (01:04:32):
Remember that guy, the Beame.

Speaker 4 (01:04:33):
Guy position in there. Now he has a one billion
dollar position in Alibaba now oh really yeah.

Speaker 5 (01:04:40):
It's quite large.

Speaker 2 (01:04:41):
Another famous investor we talked about last week, Bill Ackman
and Uber really trying to get that stock going higher.

Speaker 3 (01:04:46):
Yeah, yeah, it's the oil down fifty cents on the
week to seventy and a quarter.

Speaker 2 (01:04:51):
I saw Oxy finally got a little bit of a jump. Really, yeah,
had like a six percent jump one day. I was like, here,
what happened?

Speaker 3 (01:04:59):
There? You go, warrant major?

Speaker 5 (01:05:00):
Does he know something?

Speaker 3 (01:05:02):
Maybe old gold keeps going up another fifty bucks to
twenty nine thirty three? Hit I knew, all time high? Yeah,
I again for like probably the fifth week in a row.

Speaker 2 (01:05:10):
Or you want to pull up a one year chart
of gold. You're just like, yeah, believe some country is
buying that, that's for sure.

Speaker 3 (01:05:15):
Yeah and again some government or governments are buying it
for sure.

Speaker 5 (01:05:20):
Bricks.

Speaker 2 (01:05:21):
Yeah, I mean think about it kind of works because
more and more people are saying, should I be buying gold?
Should I be buying gold, Get out of my dollar
and buy gold. So it is a way to attack
the dollar in that way, it's probably the best way
for these bricks countries to attack the dollar. Have them
creating a currency no one's going to trust.

Speaker 3 (01:05:39):
How would you how is it attack the dollar? Explain?

Speaker 2 (01:05:42):
If more and more people see that gold goes up
in value and it happens at this type of rate,
people are going to say, well, I should be putting
my dollars, my safe dollars in gold instead. And if
more and more people do that, that will just lead
to the same effect of gold keep going higher and higher,
more and more people will do. It's the same thing
is bitcoin. It's bitcoin keep going high. More people are

(01:06:02):
going to think of it as a safety or a
hedge against inflation, which devalue is the dollar, which would
continue the value dollar. It's a self and reinforcing cycle.
It can go the other way too.

Speaker 3 (01:06:11):
And you it's a dollar trade and multi year heights
a relative to other currencies, Dave, not relative to gold. No, No,
I I get that.

Speaker 2 (01:06:19):
So it's you're you're comparing against boats in a bay.
When when gold and bitcoin are climbing the mountains are
going to higher higher over the Bay.

Speaker 3 (01:06:26):
Yeah, I guess I'm not going to be able to
really go to in and out and get a burger
with gold.

Speaker 2 (01:06:31):
Yeah, but I can still sell my gold, turning the
dollars and then take my dollars in and out and
for the six months that I'll be sitting a gold
and went up in value against the dollar.

Speaker 3 (01:06:39):
Suggestion I swapped my dollar. You swap your dollars for
gold as you're holding it. At some point you swap back, right,
It's kind of like buying empty in the strategic petroleum
order of it, ninety dollars.

Speaker 2 (01:06:49):
And think about what people do when they're putting money
into a money market because they want to earn four percent.
And that's something I wanted to talk about a little bit.
Was we give free advice out all the time and
financial plans and people are always super grateful for it,
and I feel like we should talk about it on
the show. So one of the things we talk about
a lot in our meetings is the Vanguard cash Plus account.

(01:07:10):
We don't get a dime from it, but what you
can do is go to Vanguard open up a cash
plus account specifically because that's where you would only be
able to invest in money market funds, and we hear
the Greenberg Financial actually use the VMF xx for predominantly
all of our cash when it's sitting on the sidelines,
because it earns us right now around four point three
seven percent interest, and that's a seven day SEC yield,

(01:07:32):
So it will change every thirty days, but it's a
rolling period based on what the current one month treasury
is at, So right now it's at four point three seven.
So what we say is open up a Vanguard cash
Plus account. If you have money that you don't need,
but you want you're not gonna need in the next
maybe two or three years. It's short term money. Do
you need savings, put it in this Vanguard cash Plus
and you can always transfer it back to your checking

(01:07:53):
if you need it. It would be a forty eight
hour process, but it allows you to get higher interest
and not let the bank take advantage of you. If
you're just sitting a large sum of money and you're
checking earn nothing.

Speaker 3 (01:08:04):
Yeah, my wife has has some in the Bank of America,
not not a lot like twenty five thousand. I did
not get a ten ninety nine last year because did
not earn ten dollars worth of interest out on twenty
five grand, right.

Speaker 5 (01:08:18):
You know.

Speaker 2 (01:08:19):
For example, one of the things I did at the
nonprofit I served on is they had, you know, sixty
four thousand sitting in the checking we moved to the Vanguard.
They made three thousand dollars an interest. You know, that's
an extra grant for them just because they move money
into a Vanguard money market. A lot of people have
that same thing that they could be doing with their money.
So don't let inflation take advantage of you, don't let
banks take advantage of you. Move it into this money

(01:08:41):
market and at least you'll be able to get good interest.

Speaker 3 (01:08:44):
And this is something that's a money management firm that
we've been doing for a couple of years now, and
it's not something that we have to do. It's something
that we do as a money management firm because we
know that it pays right now toide four point three
seven and the clearing firm that use has an insured
money market fund the pace point eight. So we could

(01:09:05):
leave everything in point eight no one would ever know
the difference, but we don't. We moved into the Vanguard
money market fund, and it's a physical process it is
a ton of work, but if you've got twenty forty
one hundred thousand dollars that's sitting in a side waiting
for investments, that makes a significant difference at the end
of the year and what you've earned for sure.

Speaker 2 (01:09:25):
And I think another piece of free advice I would
want to give is the HSA accounts, the health savings
accounts that most people just don't know is one of
the most tax efficient accounts you can ever have. It
goes in tax deductible, it grows tax free, and if
you use qualified medical expenses, it goes out tax withdrawal free. Also,
you can even use it after sixty five for just
regular expenses and you just pay ordinary income taxes. It's

(01:09:48):
a great account to be utilizing. For individuals it's around
I think forty three forty one hundred contribution limit, and
then for and then for married it's like seven seven
eighty three hundred something like that, so you're able to
put it just makes sense because people don't realize how
many eligible HSA and f SA items there are out there.

Speaker 3 (01:10:09):
What would you were you're putting money in the HSSA,
what would you take it out for? For someone who
doesn't know what an is like.

Speaker 2 (01:10:15):
It could be simple as toothpaste, band aids, anything pretty
much helped like that. Don't work, dental work at medical medicare, premiums,
even deductible, any deductibles. There's there's a whole list on
the I r S and you'll be surprised. There's some
really funny things like condoms and nicotine. I mean, it's
all kinds of different things that you can get. And
there are HSA eligible, even fitness items like if you

(01:10:38):
buy gym items, those are hs eligible. So if you're
going to be paying for these things, you might as
well pay them tax free, then letting government get for
no reason.

Speaker 3 (01:10:48):
And most major companies you offer and.

Speaker 2 (01:10:51):
If you and if you're not with a major company
that does, you can go to Fidelity and offer a
standalone plan. You just have to be enrolled in a
high deductible health plan. So's long as you're enrolled in
a high deductible health plan, you're eligible to open up
an HSA.

Speaker 3 (01:11:03):
It's a high deductible health plan.

Speaker 2 (01:11:06):
I'm not a I'm off the top of my head,
I don't know exact definition. No, there's a there's a
threshold that you have to pay a certain deductible and
I got it.

Speaker 3 (01:11:18):
I got That's how they determine you're in a corporate plan, right,
or it's not like a high deductible through Fidelity.

Speaker 2 (01:11:25):
No, no, no, it's like exactly your employer health care
as long as you're in Sometimes it's yeah, exactly as
long as health put you on the spot. And then
you would go to Fidelity and open up a standalone
HSA plan for just yourself. You and you order a
debit card and then that money in that account you
can either invest or just leave it in cash and
then spend out of it with the debit card.

Speaker 3 (01:11:45):
Good advice. You've got two more segments. We'll come back
with those segments after this commercial break. We appreciate your listening.
We'll be back with more of the Money Matter Show.

Speaker 6 (01:11:55):
Welcome back to The Money Matter Show. My name is
Sebastian Borsinium here with David Sherwood, Dylan Greenberg, and Todd Blick.
Junior dropped this week.

Speaker 2 (01:12:03):
Yeah, we had a little bit of a drop due
to weakening economic figures. We have the PCE coming out
next week, which will get us an idea of where
inflation that you know, Dean kind of talked about the
FED maybe being a little politically motivated. I think what
it is more of what Dylan was saying is they're
seeing their eyes on the tariffs and that if he
does implement them, there's been that one month pause. If

(01:12:24):
he does implement them, maybe they're not allowed to cut
rates the same way they wanted to because that's an
inflationary press.

Speaker 3 (01:12:29):
I didn't he actually implement a ten terrify on Canadian steeler.

Speaker 2 (01:12:35):
Bro the steel?

Speaker 1 (01:12:36):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (01:12:37):
Steel, but that isn't that the only tariff that's been
issued at.

Speaker 2 (01:12:40):
This point on the North Americans.

Speaker 3 (01:12:42):
Everything else is stress because China China was implemented.

Speaker 4 (01:12:46):
I think you're right with the steel, but the twenty
five percent tariffs on Mexico and Canada worth threats and
they've been delayed until definitely.

Speaker 1 (01:12:55):
I guess it's a great stick.

Speaker 2 (01:12:56):
But the China one is in the ten percent.

Speaker 3 (01:12:58):
Yeah.

Speaker 4 (01:12:59):
Yeah, I think he got what he wanted from Mexico
to help with the border and send troops there and
help with the border in Cartel. So I think that's
really what the terriffs were for. The tariffs threats were for.

Speaker 3 (01:13:10):
Been hearing a lot more, Uh, Tesla haters out there
because of Musk. There's one way to get back at
Musk is don't buy a test.

Speaker 6 (01:13:18):
Go back to Dylan Spoint. I think Mexico is really
responding well to that though, like their president there, they
got all their cartel at the border, and I think
that is a really good thing for the their cartel
or their army. I'm sorry, the federality at the border.
And I think that it's really good for the community,
the people of Mexico because I have grandparents there and
they can't even walk around their town right now, just

(01:13:39):
because it's so infiltrated, so.

Speaker 3 (01:13:42):
Power, so infiltrated with what cartel members.

Speaker 4 (01:13:46):
Okay, which is interesting because wasn't that president thought to
be like in intertwined with the cartels.

Speaker 6 (01:13:51):
I'm sure she is.

Speaker 3 (01:13:53):
Unfortunately, they're very powerful. They're very, very powerful in Mexico. Unfortunately.
I was talking about Tesla. If you're a Musk cater,
you know, I've been hearing more and more about that
I wouldn't buy a Tesla. Ad to someone on my
office on Wednesday, uh, talking about financial plans and something
that I know what it was. I had a guy

(01:14:13):
that that washes my car and he dropped off my
key and he gave it to me, and oh, what
are you driving? I said, Tesla, Oh, I would trusted.
I wouldn't give Musk a penny of my money.

Speaker 5 (01:14:24):
You know what.

Speaker 6 (01:14:25):
That's who I was talking to. It wasn't my barber
about the square tile. I'm sorry to cut you off.
That's who it was. He told me about the yeah, yeah, yeah,
And then and and so that's that.

Speaker 3 (01:14:35):
Tesla's down thirty percent. Remember it doubled after the election
on all the wonderful things that Trump was going to
do for Musk. Thus far, nothing, none of that has
come to fruition. Uh, Tesla stocks thirty percent off of
the high. They announced on Friday a big recall to
voluntarily recalled three hundred and seventy five thousand vehicles because

(01:14:56):
of a steering issue. Once you don't understand about Tesla
recall is they'll put in a fix and I'll go
to bed and I'll wake up and the recall taken
care of you. So it isn't one of these things.
You know, if you if you have a car, the
last thing you want with an internal combustion car is
a recall, because you've got to call the dealership. You

(01:15:16):
got to get an appointment, you got to go down there.
You drop it off because I'll be paid. It's a nightmare.
Tesla recalls are nothing software up just software updates, and
they take place. So it's like a recall in your
computer or whatever. Did you guys see where Walgreens pop
twelve percent on Tuesday after David Faber on CNBC said
that the perspective buy out between Walgreens and Sycamore Partners

(01:15:38):
was showing signs of life. One thing I wonder with Walgreens.
You've got Sycamore Partners. It's pretty smart private equity firm.
They're not going to buy a pig in a poke
And I'm just wondering when it comes down to the offer,
if there is an offer, And there's those out there
that believe that Walgreen's debt is so magnificant that no

(01:16:01):
offer will work. The Sycamore Partner seems to think that
it can work. And the question I would ask myself
is it going to be a take over or is
it going to be a take under? You guys understand
what a take under is. Take under is a stock
trading at twelve bucks a share and they offer to
buy it for nine that's a take under, and that's

(01:16:23):
what I would suspect now suspect. I think that might
happen with the Evergreen partners. If they're actually going in
and making an offer to buy Walgreens and take it
private Sycamore, I think it's going to be a take under.
I don't think they're going to go in there and
offer seventeen bucks to share or something. I think it's
gonna be a take under. He speaking a fake hundred.

Speaker 6 (01:16:43):
Glad that you flip sides on Walgreens?

Speaker 3 (01:16:45):
Does that switch sides?

Speaker 6 (01:16:46):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (01:16:47):
How did I switch sides? I can't live without them. Oh,
I have switched sides. I'm just I understand. The stock
is horrible.

Speaker 6 (01:16:56):
I can't live without them.

Speaker 3 (01:16:57):
I can't live without Walgreens mile from my house. My
wife says, go get this, go get that, you know,
and I got the ticket. I can get it on Amazon.
I'll be here tomorrow. No, I need to now, Okay, well,
I'll be going over roll all Greens and they're right
next to Whole Foods, and right now, for the last
six months, Whole Foods has somehow figured out how to

(01:17:17):
keep in stock these giant blueberries that are the most
delicious thing you've ever eaten in your love, Aren't they incredible?
And they've been keeping them in stock for six months now, Dyan,
I gotta be spending, you know, a couple hundred bucks
a month on blueberries. I gotta, I gotta get into
a ten step program for blueberry.

Speaker 1 (01:17:38):
My wife's on board.

Speaker 3 (01:17:39):
Too, I mean, we go. I was in there the
other day doing the self checkout thing, and the gal goes,
you ought to put those in the bag, you know,
because I'm an old guy, I'm gonna I'm gonna drop
them or do something stupid, right, you gotta put those
in a bag. And I said, now, Now, I've been
training for this my entire life. And I said, now
like that. But I'm here buying four or five six
containers of these things the other day because my wife

(01:18:02):
and ire hook.

Speaker 6 (01:18:03):
Did you show her up and pay with your hands?

Speaker 5 (01:18:04):
Oh?

Speaker 3 (01:18:05):
I always pay with my hand.

Speaker 2 (01:18:06):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (01:18:06):
Grandkids thought that was the coolest thing ever. I was
the coolest grandpa ever. I got tad GPT and I
pay with my palm. Whole foods. You can't get cooler.

Speaker 6 (01:18:14):
Yeah, I don't need a bag, lady. I pay with
my it's true.

Speaker 3 (01:18:16):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, he just knew I was going to
have an accident in the parking lot.

Speaker 5 (01:18:20):
You know.

Speaker 2 (01:18:20):
You know another company that had a really good reporting
of a week was Garment. Garman is a company that
has watches that they make that track your fitness.

Speaker 3 (01:18:32):
It's kind of like wear a garment.

Speaker 2 (01:18:33):
I do wear a garment. I've been wearing a garment
for like three years.

Speaker 3 (01:18:36):
I know, the same one.

Speaker 2 (01:18:38):
It's getting old. But yeah, they reported earnings. They came
in seventeen percent higher than expectations. Revenue came in seven
percent higher as well. They jumped like seventeen percent on Wednesday,
but ended up giving back some of these games on
Thursday and Friday, but still finished up pretty nicely on
the week.

Speaker 6 (01:18:56):
Would you be a buyer? I just feel like it's
such a saturated market. I mean yeah, I mean much
as there's garments, there's oops, there's everything out there.

Speaker 2 (01:19:04):
This is why it's it's you know, part of our
investment philosophy is if you don't know a lot about
an industry, you don't need to be getting into it
because you're better off to just be buying the indexes.
So and I think that's just an education piece for anyone.
Just because you like a stock, you better exactly know
what a competitor's pees ratio is supposed to be in

(01:19:24):
that industry. You need to know what type of revenue
it is expected from that type of company in that
particular sector in industry. So unless you feel like you're
an expert in those spaces, you're probably going to be
better off just sticking with the indexes.

Speaker 3 (01:19:38):
There was a guy back in the day who managed
the Fidelity Magellan Fund. It was the biggest fund in there.
It was a guy named Peter Lynch l y m H.
Peter was a big fan of buying stuff that he used,
stuff that he knew, and he was an excellent money manager,
but he always bought stuff that he understood. So Todd's
points well taken.

Speaker 4 (01:19:59):
I mean, I bought Spotify years ago when the first
IPO because it's my favorite music gap out of all
the ones they use, and.

Speaker 3 (01:20:05):
I was like, if you'll have it, I still have it.

Speaker 5 (01:20:07):
Oh my dearness, I know it's done well.

Speaker 4 (01:20:09):
It's obviously the flag the last four years I think
it's iPod won sixty five a share and then it
dropped all the way down to like sixty seventy bucks
to share at one point and now it's at six
hundred and.

Speaker 5 (01:20:18):
Thirty dollars a share.

Speaker 3 (01:20:19):
Yeah, unbelievable.

Speaker 4 (01:20:21):
Yeah, and it's ever split or anything, and it's uh,
it's just doing great. They've really falling into AI and
all that. But I've been using it and I like it,
and I was like, well, I'm gonna buy something.

Speaker 2 (01:20:29):
No, they've have AI capabilities. That's why I said, Oh,
they've been You said they haven't. Yeah, no, No, they've been.

Speaker 5 (01:20:35):
Big into AI.

Speaker 4 (01:20:36):
That's really when the stock took off. Yeah, they got
huge in AI about eighteen months ago.

Speaker 5 (01:20:39):
And that's really when.

Speaker 2 (01:20:40):
Those who don't know and haven't used the AI capabilities
for playlists in your music gap, Yeah, you're really missing.

Speaker 3 (01:20:46):
Out, that's what.

Speaker 5 (01:20:47):
Yeah, well this thing is so cool.

Speaker 2 (01:20:49):
Amazon has it, Spotify has it. I don't know if
Apple's created yet in there, but you can literally just say, hey,
create a playlist that has one hundred and eighty beats
per minute and it's around it's a fitness fit, I
want rap in a little bit of country, and it
will give you twenty songs based on exactly that criteria
in like one minute. Whole playlist for you.

Speaker 6 (01:21:07):
Something about Spotify for me. Their client tele base is
so loyal to Spotify. There's no way that you will
ever switch to Apple Music, right, No, I like.

Speaker 4 (01:21:15):
Spotify chance iPhone and Samsung phones. It's really like, if
you have Apple Music and you love it, you're not
gonna switch. You have Spotify and use it, you're not
gonna switch.

Speaker 2 (01:21:24):
And there's there's a timeframe effect. I think it's if
you've used an out for more than two years. It's
really hard to then because you have everything developed the
way you like it. So then to go to a
new thing you have to redo all that and so
there is that kind of lag effect there.

Speaker 3 (01:21:40):
Yeah. Yeah, speaking of the wall, take under another loser, Intel,
one of the worst performing tech stocks over the past
few years, down sixty percent and getting kicked out of
the doubt. Now, you can't do much worse than that, right,
it will six per value and you get humiliated. However,
it's rally. Just get this this rally, twenty five percent

(01:22:01):
off of the December low on takeover talk up another
ten percent of the open on Tuesday on reports to Taiwan,
Semi and Broadcom are gonna come in and buy pieces
of it. Yeah, what a sad situation. What a sad situe.
Our biggest, our biggest chip manufacturer is getting eaten by

(01:22:21):
the buzzards. I mean, it's just.

Speaker 6 (01:22:24):
Wow, what's gonna happen with the factory up in Phoenix.

Speaker 1 (01:22:27):
I don't know.

Speaker 3 (01:22:27):
It's interesting, isn't it.

Speaker 6 (01:22:28):
There's still contractors up there are still working on it's still.

Speaker 4 (01:22:31):
Working at twenty billion dollars on those factories just to
be bought out right, And it's a It's a foundry,
isn't it?

Speaker 3 (01:22:38):
That they're building a Phoenix and a foundry. Help me
explain a foundery, guys.

Speaker 2 (01:22:43):
Well, a foundry is someone who helps actually create the chips,
so he takes them like Taiwan Semi. You'll send the
design to them and then they make it for you.
It's like Taiwan has the design for the Blackwell chip
that Navidia technically mates makes, but they they send the
designs to High One and then they send it back.

Speaker 3 (01:23:01):
Yeah, and Vidia doesn't make anything. No, people don't understand that.

Speaker 2 (01:23:04):
And the idiot doesn't make any It's hard to say
because technically they make the design. It's just they're not
the ones actually putting.

Speaker 3 (01:23:12):
Way to put it right, it don't manufacture it. Yeah,
and so Intail setting up this foundry there actually can
manufacture these things. Maybe Taiwan Semi comes in and buys
their foundry.

Speaker 2 (01:23:23):
Well, as we come up to the end of this break,
I want to shout out that there is that perm
gala that we have coming up for the Tucson Jewsh
Museum and Holocaust Center. The Greenberg Financial Group team did
buy a table, so a couple of us will be there.
I will definitely be there. Dylan will be there. So
if you want to see us, buy a ticket.

Speaker 1 (01:23:39):
You can do that.

Speaker 2 (01:23:40):
The events on March eighth at six thirty pm at
the Tucson Savoy Opera House. So if you want to
get a ticket, go to the Tucson Jewsh Museum of
Holocaust Center website. And we're looking forward to having a
fun party. So hopefully we see some of you there.
And was March eighth, March eight, Yes, come up.

Speaker 3 (01:23:58):
Yeah, We've got a bunch of things thanks to talk
about after the break, one more segment to go. I've
got a couple of interesting things. I want to talk
a little bit about hymns and hers. They had a
heck of a week and we'll be back right after
the break. Thanks again for listening. We appreciate it. Welcome
back to the final segment of the Money Metal Show.
Getting ready for that a week with temperatures in the

(01:24:18):
high eighties, and that is not the beginning of summer people,
There's some seventies behind it.

Speaker 2 (01:24:24):
But I'm going to have to start running in the
morning early again.

Speaker 3 (01:24:26):
I'm told, I'm told that storms are coming and we
are so hard up for moisture. And February is the
rainy month and the rodeo always gets rained on. Not
this year. There's been just not a drop of rain
since October and then we're in severe drought.

Speaker 2 (01:24:42):
I did see some snow up in Pintes, hope, a
little bit of.

Speaker 4 (01:24:46):
Foot and a half, so hopefully it comes down from
northern Arizona.

Speaker 3 (01:24:50):
Well, we were, and of course what's happened is the
snow melt. The snowpack in California's way blow normal, and
that means, like me, it's not going to get the
melt dowards, so we're gonna see that going dry.

Speaker 2 (01:25:00):
Yeah, I mean, well it was at all time high
last whatever. Yes, oh yeah, the world's in a cycle.

Speaker 3 (01:25:05):
Shocker. I probably worry more about the weather than most people.

Speaker 2 (01:25:09):
I don't know why, but at the end of the day,
we know it's a system. It doesn't just leanerly. It's
not a logmrithic system. It's going to go up and down.
It's it's gonna be hot years, it's gonna be cold
years changing.

Speaker 6 (01:25:19):
What's going on with those some glue tides, Dave.

Speaker 3 (01:25:22):
This is amazing him and Hers. Thanks, that's a good segue.
I like that Him's and herst stock has gone parabally
this year. You know, it's up one hundred and fifty
percent this year. Wow jumped to another fifteen percent on
Wednesday to a new all time high. Dylan, after announcing
they've acquired New Jersey based lab testing company Tribe Labs.

(01:25:45):
A deal will allow Hims and Hers to offer at
home draws and more comprehensive treatment.

Speaker 1 (01:25:51):
However, wait, what go back?

Speaker 6 (01:25:53):
What does that mean though?

Speaker 3 (01:25:55):
That you can do blood drops at home? So if
you wanted to test for whatver? Your test right?

Speaker 6 (01:26:00):
So as if like twenty three in knee wasn't enough
that I'm just sending my saliva to somebody, now I'm
gonna send my blood.

Speaker 1 (01:26:06):
No no, No.

Speaker 3 (01:26:07):
I think the the in home testing thing would be
you draw your draw the blood, which would be a prick, right,
take it out there, and then you put it on
a test and get the results. Oh okay, yeah, right
right in your house. However, on Friday, the FDA said,
and we've been talking about this for months, the FDA said, okay, compounders,

(01:26:27):
time to stop making semi glue tide. Well, semi glue
tide is what's in uh Nobel Nordics Wagovi and ozempic
and uh uh we saw Lily stock. Actually, Nobel Nordics
rallied five percent on that news. But uh they Lily
and Nobel Nordics both were having trouble meeting demand for

(01:26:49):
these weight loss drugs, and so they gave the formula
to compound pharmacies. And when there was no longer a shortage,
the compound pharmacies kept making them. Well they complained to
the f d A and the FDA c yeah, we
need to have them stop that. Well, that was probably
six months ago.

Speaker 6 (01:27:06):
I don't think that going back a little bit, I
don't think that Eli, lillyans Nova Nordisk asked, you know,
compound pharmacies to step in. I think it was the
fact that the FDA stepped in. This drug started off
as a diabetic drug, not for.

Speaker 3 (01:27:19):
No, no, no, no no. Why would the FDA doesn't
care whether you have enough supply or not. No Novo,
Nordisk and Lily are the ones that ask for help
manufactory the fill it. Why would they? Why would they can't?
Why would the FDA care whether you don't have enough
supply or not? Humanitarian reason?

Speaker 2 (01:27:39):
The only thing you could say, I guess is if
it's a diabetic diabet.

Speaker 3 (01:27:43):
The bottom line is the bottom line is that compound
pharmacies have been told you got to stop and Hymns
and hers plunged twenty five from home not good, and
they do.

Speaker 6 (01:27:53):
They are allowed to continue to manufacture and sell the
drug until about May twenty second.

Speaker 3 (01:27:57):
I believe you just want to hear something interesting. I
heard I learned last week and I did not know this,
So I'm thinking you maybe don't know this either, And
I want to thank our client Greg for telling me
about this. You know, many people are aware of hud Bay,
the company Hudbay's attempts to get an open pit copper
mine south of Itan on the way to Sonoida been

(01:28:20):
going on for years and years and years, very quietly
and because I don't know about it. An Australian company
by the name of South thirty two has made the
largest private investment ever in southern Arizona in the Patagonia Mountains.
There's expected to be one of the largest zinc and

(01:28:40):
manganese deposits in the world, both medicals, both metals, critical
free vs. The infrastructure for this mine is nearing completion
and it's going to be an underground mine, which is
less controversial right expected to begin production in twenty twenty seven.
Is currently one hundred and fifty employees. It's going to
grow the nine hundred in a county where seventy five

(01:29:03):
percent of the people are below the national average. That's
a good thing. Nine hundred high paying jobs. One of
the largest zinc and manganese mines in the world is
just south of US. I had no idea. I went
in and googled it again, South thirty two. It's called
if you're interested, Google it and they've got a picture

(01:29:24):
of what they've done down there. It's my boggling what's
down there?

Speaker 2 (01:29:28):
Yeah, mountains are one incredible things.

Speaker 3 (01:29:30):
It's got to be tuck it's got to be tucked
away though back in there that that you can't see
it from the road or anything. And wild. Hey, you know,
I remember a couple of years ago this company came
public by the name of Bumble, you guys may be
familiar with.

Speaker 2 (01:29:44):
Yeah, they had a bad week.

Speaker 3 (01:29:45):
Female based dating service, right, female based online dating service,
female centric where women control.

Speaker 2 (01:29:53):
I've been on it the flow, have you.

Speaker 4 (01:29:55):
They respond first, like they got to reach out first women. Okay, yeah,
And it's like one of the founders of tender broke
off and founded that one.

Speaker 3 (01:30:04):
Down forty percent from the high a little changed on
Thursday after reporting I'm sorry, down forty percent. I dropped
another twenty percent at the open on Wednesday after issually
weak guidance. So I don't know that's the same. But
when it first came public, I thought, this is probably
a really good idea. What do you guys think, Yeah,
our generation, you're in that world.

Speaker 2 (01:30:26):
They're not going to date.

Speaker 3 (01:30:28):
They're just not gonna do that.

Speaker 2 (01:30:29):
No one wants to have kids. Humanity hour an hour
in then now we're in.

Speaker 3 (01:30:36):
Now we're in the ditch on the road to Patagonia.

Speaker 4 (01:30:39):
Maybe those apps just become Elon Is one day and
that people don't really like him anymore.

Speaker 2 (01:30:44):
Of Elon Musk is right with what he thinks that
we need to have more babies.

Speaker 3 (01:30:48):
Oh, I thought you said nobody wanted to have kids.

Speaker 2 (01:30:50):
Well no, that's why he's saying that he has ten,
Like we have a birth problem. If no one has kids,
this human race is going to just die in diapers.

Speaker 3 (01:30:57):
Elon has ten that we know of, exactly right, with
two different mothers, one he married twice. I can tell
you really look up to him. Yeah, I drive his car.
You know, how can you do any more than that?
I mean, Elon so far out of my league?

Speaker 2 (01:31:16):
Are you going to the BMW's Are you gonna buy
one of those bumper stickers there?

Speaker 5 (01:31:20):
But with that?

Speaker 3 (01:31:20):
Did I get the car before I knew that? You know,
it's interesting, But I haven't. I have not personally felt
any kind of pushback about it, other than on in
my office with that gout when when he brought my
key and then she said, oh, I wouldn't buy one
of these. You know, but I've met had anybody say
anything to me. And of course wasn't they going to say?
There thousands of them in Tucson, thousands of them.

Speaker 4 (01:31:43):
The Doze Committee was also something that was during Obama's
administration too, they just called us something else. It was
the exact same theme and idea and goal was to
cut government waste. The only difference was it was an
eccentric billionaire that ran it. It was still in spector
generals that ran it, who are technically not elected officials.
They are appointed by the president. Yeah, it's the same idea.

Speaker 2 (01:32:07):
That's Obama's fault. Obama's the one who got that through legislation.

Speaker 4 (01:32:10):
But it was all praised and stuff, and it is
a good idea about the waste of the government spending.
But this one's so hated because it's Elon Musk to
get the idea of conflict and interests and stuff with
his government contracts with SpaceX and Tesla. But that Tesla
one hasn't gone through the four in a million dollars
that everybody's up in armsbot has it gone through. Started
in the Biden administration, and it's nothing that's even come

(01:32:32):
to fruition.

Speaker 5 (01:32:32):
But the contract for the trust for the armored trucks, yeah,
that was a.

Speaker 4 (01:32:36):
Contract, and just because they're changing it from Tesla to
a truck in the wording, and it's multiple companies ev
trucks that they're trying to do it with. Hasn't even
come to fruition. The biggest thing is that Elon Musk
is Elon Musk and he's not an inspector general from
one of the departments, but they're still they department. Inspector
generals weren't elected by citizens. So when they're saying, oh,

(01:32:58):
Elon Musk is an elected fish either were the people
that ran the other.

Speaker 3 (01:33:03):
He needs to be vetted, that's just blowney. They don't
vet any of that.

Speaker 4 (01:33:08):
He pushes the boundaries with his thing, but he's a
special counsel to the to the President. He's pushing those
boundaries for sure. But if there's no conflict interest has
come to actual thing, then there's no problem. But if
there is conflict interest, then yeah, that's a problem.

Speaker 6 (01:33:20):
Well said, what does a little bit of a due
diligence do rather than just looking at the headline?

Speaker 3 (01:33:25):
Seriously, I know, having one of the smartest and most
successful guys in the world looking at your books seems
to me like a pretty good idea.

Speaker 6 (01:33:32):
I'm okay with that.

Speaker 3 (01:33:33):
Yeah, she's like a guy idea. But that's just me. Uh,
what's the scheduling situation on your financial plan topics?

Speaker 2 (01:33:39):
Give us just give us a call.

Speaker 3 (01:33:41):
I think I said someone in here Friday or Thursday
and they wanted a financial plan and was set up
for March fifth.

Speaker 4 (01:33:49):
Well, that's because they want to They wanted to out.
Means we got We're busy during the week for the people, Dave. Yeah,
we don't have a meeting every hour of every day.

Speaker 2 (01:33:57):
Give us a call. We'll find a time. We're here
to help people at the end of the day. And
we've been doing a lot of it. So we're blessed
to be able to do that, blessed to be able
to go up to Phoenix and recourse some new TV
shows next month and we'll put those out going forward.
But yeah, we've been educating a lot of people. We
don't really talk too much about rock conversions in the

(01:34:18):
first part of the year is something we talk more
about on the back half. More so in the first half,
we're doing account reviews. We're looking at risk a lies,
current portfolios, how do we make them more efficient into
this twenty twenty five. Again, as I said earlier in
the show, I think we can either be going to
fifty two hundred or sixty eight hundred. And so let's
look at your portfolio and see what if one of

(01:34:39):
those two scenarios ends up happening. What does your portfolio
look like at the end of that.

Speaker 3 (01:34:44):
So let's let's run you can show both scenarios. Yeah,
and because we know that the market this is you
might want to write your staff you have pencil handy.
We know the market's either going to go up or down.

Speaker 2 (01:34:56):
Yeah, yeah, it'll it will either go up or down.

Speaker 3 (01:35:01):
Yeah, I got that. That was good. That's okay, So
you got it from Todd. The market is either going
to go up or down. No, the point of that
whole's kind of funny when you said the point of
the whole thing is you can actually plug in those scenarios.
Can you tolerate this?

Speaker 1 (01:35:16):
Right?

Speaker 3 (01:35:17):
And because we don't really care about the upside, It's
like the only time people want to know how to
access their account is when the market's down big because
they want the pain. That's all I can figure. They
want the pain. Yeah, I don't know why I sho
would care, you know, But here at Greenberg Financial, we're
just plugging along doing financial plans left and right. There's

(01:35:38):
no obligation. They're free and maybe one of the smartest
things you've ever done in your life. And at the
end of the day, we want to be happy, and
of course we want to be healthy, because if we're
not healthy, we're probably not happy. And at Greenberg Financial
we're really trying to be profitable. Actually,

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The Bobby Bones Show

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Money Matters: Market Highs, Economic Worries & Political Impact

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