Trade Wars, Tariffs & Turning Points: Where Markets Go Next

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Well, good morning everybody. It's Sunday morning. It's eight o'clock
and it is the Money Matter Show right here on
seven ninety. It is a show that we've been doing
for a long period of time, and there's one we're
going to continue to do. We run thirty five years.
Thirty five years. I've been talking to you people in
Tucson about financial management, about how to make money. What

(00:24):
we're doing as money managers. Remember financial Greenberg Financial Group
has been a money management firm since nineteen eighty eight,
and now it's morphed into a financial planning and money
management firm. We actually not only do the plans, which
is great because it builds the relationships and the trust.

Speaker 2 (00:44):
Dylan is a CFP.

Speaker 1 (00:46):
We'll help on the taxi, we help on to stay planning,
We help on everything while we put your portfolios together,
and then we manage it. We don't give it to
somebody else. We manage it. And the reason we do
that is because I believe in responsibility. It's much easier
to be flexible, it's much easier to be able to

(01:06):
tweak for individuals when the stress gets to home or not.
A few weeks ago, we were looking and listening to
the media talk about how bad everything was and how
bad the markets were, and how everything is going to
go down, and we can down go down thirty percent,
fifty percent, and that's when we hit down around forty
eight hundred on the SMP. We're back over fifty six

(01:29):
hundred on the SMP in a very short a period
of time, a few weeks. And why is that? Well, first,
why did it go down so much? It went down
so much at first, it's because we've been talking about
how the underpinnings of the market weren't very strong. So
as soon as there was some news out there that
people couldn't really comprehend, they sold first and asked questions later.

(01:52):
The professionals that have been in this market for a
long time that trade their own money other people's money,
when those things have, you noticed, they just get out
of the way for a day or two or three
and let the markets go down because they're always going
to get new money in from people. They're always going
to have institutional when they're always going to have things
that they can do. They wait, they wait, and they

(02:13):
wait and they wait until they basically something comes out
with some news that changes and they and then the
short start. The people that are short the market, who
are betting on the downside, then they have to then
starts hitting their criteria, they start buying. Then the fomos,
the fear of missing out, people start buying, and the
next thing you know, the market's back up fifteen sixteen,

(02:34):
seventeen percent. That's how it works. And then what they say,
it's volatility, it's chaos, it's this, it's that. I've been
watching this happen for over forty years.

Speaker 2 (02:45):
Forty years.

Speaker 1 (02:46):
I've listened to these economists be wrong for over forty years.
I've been listening to the media just go ahead and
try to get everyone excited one way or the other,
just so they can get eyeballs on their TV. Now
there's some smart people out there. There are, and eventually
everyone's going to be right eventually. If you keep saying
the market's going down, when it goes down, oh look

(03:07):
at that person they called that. It could have been
a year and a half ago, it could have been
thousand points ago, but they called that. That's not where
the respect comes from. The respect comes from the person
that you deal with, that does your allocations and then
actually presses the button to make the buys and the cells.
At the end of the day, the score card is

(03:29):
the buys and the cells. How did I mitigate risk?
How did I buy when it was lower? How am
I still? Where's my position now? It's not in the past,
it's in the future. I know so many people that go, oh,
you should have bought that, or you should have bought this,
And I said, well, we bought this and this. Maybe

(03:49):
it wasn't what you thought we should buy, but we
bought this and this, and look where this is. And
then we sell some stuff, and we sell some stuff
as they're coming down, and they go down another ten
or twenty or thirty points, but they still have a
little bit and.

Speaker 2 (04:00):
Like, whoa, why do we still have that?

Speaker 1 (04:03):
Being good in this business, being good for clients is
understanding their fear. Not so much the agreed that's easy
to deal with. It's their fear and you have to
understand the type of relationship you have so they don't
go ahead and make the wrong mistake. Everybody gets older.

(04:29):
Everybody the next time the markets go down will be
older than they will when the last time the markets
went down. So when you put your portfolio together and
the markets are high and you're investing, and you're fully invested,
you want to be more and you want to be greedy.
Then when the markets go down, you're gonna get scared.
So you've got to build portfolios around the ability to

(04:55):
reduce the stress for individuals when the markets go down.
That's how you meet gate risks. You can have a
big cash position, which helps if they can go buy,
if they if they're if they're taking money out of
the account and using it on a monthly basis as
a supplemental income, you have to set the ink the
portfolio up as if it's a supplemental pension for them.

(05:19):
Pensions go up and down, you just don't see them.
But there's a way to go ahead. If you take
it four or five percent out of your account, a
six percent even, to go ahead and make sure you
have enough money for.

Speaker 2 (05:30):
The rest of your lives.

Speaker 1 (05:32):
That doesn't mean if you have a million dollars in
there and you're taking five, six, seven, eight percent out,
that that million dollars is still going to be there.
It could be three hundred, could be four hundred. After
twenty years, could be five hundred, eight hundred, It could
be a million and a half. But at the end
of the day, the whole idea is, did you go
ahead and live the lifestyle you wanted out of what

(05:54):
you were able to handle from what what it's able
to give to you. Remember, if you're getting three thousand
dollars a month or five thousand dollars a month from
your pension and you say, oh, I want six or seven,
they're not going to give it to you. So we
have to find other ways to get you that money
and do things. And that's what we do. That's why
we're our cfps, Our experience, our understanding of the markets,

(06:20):
the models I put together for over the last twenty
five thirty years, these are the things that will get
you through all this. So now the markets are up,
we just don't sit back and say, hey, this is great, wonderful. No,
we started to reduce our risk a little bit by
raising a little bit more cash. This week. I said,

(06:40):
if it got over fifty six fifty seven hundred, I'll
start doing that. At fifty eight hundred, I'll do it
even bigger. Can we go to six thousand? We can.
I'll tell you right now. If something good comes from
the from the discussions with China at some time and
we resolve a deal with them in the India and
everybody else, then great, we'll rally up big and then

(07:04):
we'll sell into it. Because it will not hold for
a while, we will have another downturn. I don't think
we can go down as far as we were unless
there's problems. But by the time deals get done, it
takes a long time. And as you saw by the numbers,
it's not affecting our economy yet. When by the time
it starts affecting economy, you got to weigh that against

(07:26):
the deals that are being made, and then you have
to look out three, four, five, six months later, so
on declines, you'd be a buyer again. You stay ahead
by understanding what's happening today and how the markets will
react later on. Eventually, the Fed for lower interest rates

(07:46):
that will stimulate the economy. We have low inflation, right, No,
the energy prices are way down, Okay, other prices are
coming down. That's what we wanted. It just baffles me.
He was able to lower the interest rates in September
and October in the face of higher inflation, in the

(08:12):
face of a job market that was very, very tight.
All the things he was looking at in anticipation of
the election. I don't understand how he did that. And
now he looks at it and said, well, tariffs are
going to be probably could be inflationary, but at least

(08:33):
we know those tariffs are temporary. You remember when he
said that inflation was just a temporary thing, but it
turned out to be a three year thing. Okay, Well,
I could tell you tariffs are a temporary thing. Good

(08:54):
one way or the other. It's going to be resolved
with some type of meeting. Now here's the thing. Now,
we are changing the way the United States of America
does business. We're changing the way we are spending, We're

(09:18):
changing the way we're going to move forward as a country.
And some people just can't get their hands around that.
They think the government is here for handouts, the government
is here for the support of that, and they can
never go broke. Well, I'm telling you it's happened many

(09:40):
times to many empires throughout the entire world. The Roman
Empire thought it would never do anything but conquer the world.
They came tumbling down the United Kingdom, England. They thought
they were the strongest and the best ever. Look what happened.
China is on the right. Soviet unions on the rise

(10:02):
in the United States of America. If we fall, they
both will rise. Communism will rise because people will be
needing the fact of being helped by the government. I
don't think that most people that live in America want
to be socialism or communism. They don't understand by giving

(10:23):
away things to everybody, that is socialism. And when socialism
gets to the point that you can't afford things and
the government has to give you everything, that becomes communism.
And if you think that we don't have a middle
class now, we will never have a middle class under
those circumstances. President Trump is trying to put a middle
class back, the blue collar worker back, the person that

(10:46):
actually works and does things on an everyday basis. What
we took away from Ohio and Pennsylvania and the rust
belt industries. We're trying to put things back in a
Marria for number one, safety reasons. Can you imagine we
had a World war right now and we had to

(11:07):
weight on parts for a military from outside the United States,
or god forbid, we have another pandemic and China says
we're not giving you the drugs you need. Think about that.
We know, we had healthcare essentials that we couldn't get
our hands on. Thank goodness that China still gave it

(11:30):
to us. We were still on good terms. But if
you had war, why would they do it now? Going
back to our economy, going back to where we are
right now, and I've been asking this question a lot
to people.

Speaker 2 (11:45):
Have you.

Speaker 1 (11:48):
Sat and thought about where we were thirty forty fifty
years ago when it came to government assistance for people
food stamps, welfare, unemployment, and where we are today. Does
anyone give a thought or wonder why today we have

(12:12):
to give so much government assistance to able bodied people.
That's horrendous. We can't survive doing that. We need to
help the people that need to help the most physically
or mentally disability people need help. I get that. I

(12:38):
don't have a problem with that elderly that's got to
the point that they can't afford things. We need to
help them. I get that. But we need to reduce
the number of people that are on government assistance immediately.
We get to start with the fraud, start with the overcharges,

(12:59):
start with all the looting payments that everybody needs. You know,
this whole thing with Doge right like it or not.
They're exposing things that have been incredible fifty million dollars
that don't have to have any tax receipt on it,

(13:21):
any code on it, to where it went, and you
find out it went to parties and planes and trips
and how much in their pockets. I know I've said
this for a long time, and I know you've thought it.
How do these people that go in and get a
job for one hundred and fifty to maybe two hundred
thousand a year become not millionaires, but twenty million, fifty million,

(13:46):
one hundred million dollars they walk out with after being
a lifer in this in Congress. It makes absolutely no sense.
And now we're realizing that money's been going into places
that we had no idea where it was going, and

(14:09):
that should never happen. You ever wonder why they don't
want to have term limits because the party's over. Say
what you want about what's going on. Say you don't
like it, but you don't have a better plan. And
I want to stop all this just taking thinking it's theirs.

(14:35):
I've said it before, say it again. If we can
give hundreds of billions and trillions of dollars away to
around the world.

Speaker 2 (14:43):
We are being.

Speaker 1 (14:44):
Taxed too much. We are being taxed too much. It
should not lay on the backs of our hard workers
to be taxed to send money to everywhere in the
world really need it. So many of those for uh uh,

(15:06):
you know nonprofit groups. Just look at all that stuff
that they've been doing. Even if you think half of
it is made up, what about the other half? That
makes no sense. I do not like the fact that
we have so much money that went out and we
had no idea where it was going. But these congress

(15:30):
people become very very rich. Follow the money, follow the trail,
and you follow where the abuse has been. Time to
change that. Once you start changing this now we can
start implementing some other things. And I don't even know

(15:50):
what world I'm living in right now when I look
out there and I see different things going on. But
I am gonna applaud the Columbia University's president.

Speaker 2 (16:04):
For the.

Speaker 1 (16:05):
I don't know what I want to call it, but
the uprising against Jewish people again there, and they've been
getting away with it for a while.

Speaker 2 (16:13):
Right.

Speaker 1 (16:15):
Well, she stood up and said, you know what, everyone
that's here can't leave, and I want everyone needs to
have IDs showing that they went to college here, and
if you don't have an idea, you're getting arrested. Look
how many people got arrested, sixty seventy people, which goes

(16:38):
again to what we always believe. There are people going
to these protests that are being paid to go to
these protests to rile up the left with nonsense and
in this case hate. I don't understand why the left

(16:58):
always resorts to violence when they think they're just going
ahead and having free speech. Years ago it happened with
the Summer or Love, burning down federal buildings, shutting off streets,
hurting people, the violence that we've had in our country,

(17:22):
But yet the left still defends them. I don't get it.
Am I that out of touch that when it comes
to criminals, MS thirteen, gangs, gang members, people that are
legally here, what rights do they have? I didn't know

(17:43):
they had rights. I thought it's like when you do
something wrong and you become a felon, you have no
more rights and we put them in jail and you
have no rights. You have no rights to vote, you
have no rights. But some now if you cross the

(18:04):
border during a Biden administration, even though you were illegal.
They think they have rights, and I'm not sure how
that is. Is it because they got some number that
says they have to have a court case for in
three five years from now? But if they're a criminal,

(18:26):
why do they even have that? Are they going to
be mistakes? Absolutely, they're gonna be mistakes. But I don't
get it. Why do you hang your hat on the
two major things right now? Saving someone that has comes
from L. Salvador was a criminal in L Salvador. We

(18:47):
sent them back there and they want to come here.
And he was here illegally because he had a family,
because he worked illegally.

Speaker 2 (18:56):
I don't know.

Speaker 1 (18:58):
There's so many of them. I don't know the answer,
but I know this, it makes no sense. We're wasting
our courts, We're wasting opportunity. Why don't the congress people
instead of going and storming an ice center in New
Jersey and having the mayor get arrested for political I

(19:24):
don't know, showing ho we're trying to help when you
know there's ms thirteen criminals there? What are you doing?
Why don't you figure out a way to help the
people in New Jersey to pay less tax to grow
their economy to build jobs, make it safer. If you

(19:47):
think that the people on there are such good people
that are in the detention center, why don't you get
your sleeping bags and pinch your tent and go sleep
there for a few nights. See how you get treated
instead of just doing a circus and trying to prove
what And then on the other side, all you see

(20:13):
is every single Democrat believes by their votes in Congress
that they're not against men in women's sports. Why we
wasted our time on this? It makes no sense. Men
do not play women's sports. It's not fair on any level.

(20:34):
Eighty percent of the people agree to that, But every
every Democrat in the House.

Speaker 2 (20:42):
Voted against the bill.

Speaker 1 (20:45):
Not sure, why can't get the Republicans will always do
the same thing.

Speaker 2 (20:49):
But that's what the Democrats do.

Speaker 1 (20:52):
And they are getting on a horse with no name
because I have no clue what they're standing for. Because
on the other side, if they really wanted to stand
for something, do like the presidents of the university did say,
you're okay to go ahead and protest. I don't want
to see hate speech, but you can protest no violence.

(21:13):
But if you're not a student at the school. You're
not allowed here to protest. Get off our private property,
and if you're here, we're gonna arrest you. That's a change,
that's good. Why don't they start coming up with ideas
and start presenting ideas, whether they pass or not, at
least Americans can hear their ideas on how to do something.

(21:34):
Now that the board is safe and you can't complain
about that. We have three people try to get across
the border. Three We were having ten thousand a day.
So why not start talking about an immigration bill that
maybe both sides can agree on because the United State.
People in the United States would love to see an
immigration bill that works for both sides and works to

(21:54):
bring in good immigrants into the country to work here
and make America better. Absolutely, that's what people want. Make
it safer, make it economically strong. We're starting to bring
businesses back. It takes time, you know. But when you
listen to the media, ninety percent of the media is negative. Again,

(22:15):
it doesn't help going forward. We need to just do this.
Give us ideas. Every one should give us ideas. We
got to this point. If you don't want to just
to hear the White House given ideas Congress come up
with ideas, Dems and Republicans come up with ideas that
the public can do it or do you all come

(22:36):
up with these ideas and the media just doesn't want
to hear it because it's boring and they just want
to go on to all the other stuff. I don't know,
but hate needs to stop. We need immigrants to come
in to start to being able to work in the
jobs that we're going to have. We need to start
stopping and realizing common sense takes place. You if you
if you have three million illegal people, you have twenty

(22:58):
but three million that you was looking at criminals and
not here and shouldn't be here and came illegally and
in the last couple of years, stop thinking that you
have to go to all the courts to get about
You'll never be able to do it because we never
had the process. So why don't you admit that that's
the case. Stop saying everything's against democracy and saying everything's
against the constitution because we could say the same thing

(23:22):
on the other side when that was happening too. And
more and more as we see it that one person
on the other side that supported Biden the whole time
will ever admit that they lied. They lied so many times,
but nobody ever wants to admit that. I will at
least admit that on our side they lie to okay,
and I'll call them out when they do it. But

(23:44):
they've never come clean on the on the on the
on the on the computer, the bider hunt, the buy
the computer. They have not tried to come clean. They
have every reason of who was running the country. I
think that's the biggest thing we need to know for
four years. Who ran the country? Did he sign it

(24:04):
or did he just stamp it? Let's face it, Who
made the bills, who put those in front of him?
Who is behind it? We all have ideas, we just
don't know who it is. All Right, we'll be back
at the Money Battery Show. We have a lot to
talk about on how to manage your money and get
through of where we are.

Speaker 2 (24:22):
Thank you for listening, and we'll be right back.

Speaker 1 (24:26):
Welcome back, everybody to the Moneybatter Show with Dave, Dylan Todd,
myself as every question while he comes on later. Well,
we'll bring him in later. Hey, a lot of dames,
you remember, So.

Speaker 2 (24:41):
We got a new pope. That's probably a big news
to you right, he probably covered that in your monologue
New Pope. No, it didn't act first American pope ever.

Speaker 1 (24:51):
It sounds like a big deal, but think about it,
it's not.

Speaker 3 (24:54):
Why is that not a big deal?

Speaker 1 (24:56):
I mean, it's a big deal, but it's not surprising
because the they've had popes for two thousand plus years. Yeah,
we've been around two hundred years. So in those two
hundred years, how many different popes have they been?

Speaker 3 (25:09):
A ton? This is the third one in the last
twenty years.

Speaker 2 (25:12):
Well, it's because they keep dying.

Speaker 4 (25:14):
But yeah, you think that's different than it was one
hundred years ago. They probably died quicker.

Speaker 1 (25:18):
I don't know, it just seems like, uh, it was time.
I just I don't know. I wasn't that surprised surprise,
because on how long we've been here. It's like proving yourself.
You got to prove yourself.

Speaker 2 (25:28):
The left way media likes. The left wing media liked
it because this guy's been critical of dvancing Trump. Oh
really yeah, So this is the question on Friday, was
well the pope off set Trump? You know, Oh yeah, sure, yeah, Oh.

Speaker 1 (25:40):
Yeah, I'm surprised. I didn't say that Trump was the
one that got the USA and as the pope.

Speaker 2 (25:46):
Well, and of course a dvance saw the previous pope
the day before he died, so there's not a long
reach to figure it might have killed him.

Speaker 5 (25:53):
Right, that's the conspiracy theory on the list, so many more.

Speaker 2 (25:58):
Fun surprised they haven't come up with that one. He's
on the day before he died. Well, what do you do?

Speaker 3 (26:02):
Oh?

Speaker 4 (26:03):
No, they came up with that conspiracy theory. That was
that was going around the internet. Yeah, that conspiracy theory, Yeah,
that was going around.

Speaker 1 (26:10):
Talked him into it.

Speaker 4 (26:11):
No, that fans was a bad luck charm man talk
him into.

Speaker 2 (26:16):
I think one of the things that there was a
lot of time spent on this past week was that
that Trump's hundred day approval rating, you know, the worst
for any president in eighty years. And what they don't
tell you is that it's still better than the Democrats
in Congress.

Speaker 3 (26:31):
No.

Speaker 4 (26:31):
So I saw this video on Schumer and he was
talking about Trump's first hundred days. I was the lowest
approval rating from the polls that they found. Next question
from a reporter was, Chuck Schumer, your approval ratings are
lower than Trump's from the polls, and He's like, polls
coming go, it doesn't matter, We're all here for it.
And that was without a breath. He changed his whole
tune on it. It makes it seem like it's a joke. Yeah,

(26:54):
that whole thing that's all about it. Like the way
they just talk and spew stuff Congress and everything.

Speaker 2 (26:59):
You know, you probably mentioned her any monologue. But there
doesn't seem to be a lot of ideas on the left,
so they're gonna their strategy is to just try to
to belittle of the right.

Speaker 1 (27:08):
I don't understand this strategy at all, and I understand
how it helps America.

Speaker 2 (27:12):
I don't get it.

Speaker 1 (27:13):
I don't get it. I don't get how they're supporting criminals.
And you know, I think I'm going into the New
Jersey detention center, okay and pro and with the protests
and getting arrested and making a big deal of it.
It's like, guys, go get your tent and your sleeping
bag and pitch it in there and see if you
want to be around those people.

Speaker 2 (27:32):
Do you really think that's what the American people want
you to know?

Speaker 3 (27:34):
I don't think it is.

Speaker 4 (27:35):
I think it's just the Democratic Party. It's just whatever's
the Republican parties doing. They're doing the opposite. We don't
know normal people out there like that.

Speaker 1 (27:45):
What the Democrats and the Republicans and human beings that
understand and have a heart don't want the wrong people
to be deported. Okay, I agree, they want illegal citizens.
Now there's going to be some that are good people
working that are illegal that might that might get drawn

(28:06):
up in the thing, but they want they were legal leave.
They're giving you the opportunity. Okay, think about this. They're
giving you the opportunity to get on a plane and
not have to pay for it. Get one thousand dollars
a person that gets on that plane, bring you to
your homeland, and then give you the ability to come
to us legally.

Speaker 2 (28:27):
I mean, what brilliant strategy.

Speaker 4 (28:28):
It was the opposite of what was four years ago
when people were coming on through UH to so International
and getting flown around the country, going into the country.

Speaker 3 (28:36):
It's the same idea, but opposite.

Speaker 2 (28:38):
I mean, talk about thinking outside the box. That's thinking
outside the box. And I think they'll get a lot
of people will take them up on that because there's
an awful lot of people out there that are very
nervous about getting rounded up and getting back.

Speaker 6 (28:50):
It was an idea of an incentive, right, you actually
giving an incentive out there. The Democratic Party doesn't understand incentives.
They've turned into a socialist party. That's what they're trying
to become. They're trying to do socialism here in the
United States. And that's why it's not good for America.
It's good for the people who control that socialist system,
and it's good for those people. And then you think
of like a newsom, why is he making the decisions

(29:12):
he's making. It's not better for California. It's better for
his group of people. That's what socialism does.

Speaker 2 (29:17):
Yeah, it is. They they're very good at walking the
party line.

Speaker 5 (29:21):
I makes it seem like it's great for everyone else.

Speaker 2 (29:23):
Eighty percent of American people, do you know? I heard
you're saying the monologue. Eighty percent of American people don't
want men and women's sports, But now one single Senator
voted in favor of the bill are prohibited.

Speaker 1 (29:34):
It's ridiculous.

Speaker 2 (29:36):
It's the party line is party before country.

Speaker 1 (29:38):
We have seen this for two years. We've seen it
all the time. Girls, women don't want it. The records
they set have listen I'm okay, you want to become
a transgender that's fine, but there's rules in everything you do.
They there's rules. Okay, you cannot go ahead, and and
and and and I mean, there's.

Speaker 2 (30:01):
No man in this.

Speaker 1 (30:02):
It's it's it's not an x Y chromosome that play,
you know what I mean.

Speaker 2 (30:06):
No, I get it. It's just genetically they're genetically stronger.

Speaker 6 (30:10):
I think Caitlyn Jenner said it best. He said, there's
a difference between equality and fairness in sports. You want fairness, yeah,
all right, you don't want There's no such thing as equality.

Speaker 5 (30:21):
There is different things in sports. That's the whole one.

Speaker 2 (30:23):
Even Newsome in California says, no, it's not right. And
then his party just came down on him like a
ton of.

Speaker 4 (30:29):
B And that's the issue that's been going on. It's
like you said, he said, he goes against the party,
they just come down on him anytime they there goes Bill.

Speaker 1 (30:37):
Let them keep pounding Bernie Sanders and AOC and and everything.

Speaker 6 (30:41):
And that's why they don't have a strategy, because they
don't want to actually think critically and learn from their
mistakes and think, Okay, what did my people actually believe
in and let's make a plan based on that. They
just want to bearade the other party what they're doing wrong,
not what they're actually going to do them.

Speaker 1 (30:58):
What an opportunity right now to give us an immigration
plan that they believe would be good for both sides.
It can weigh a little bit, since they're putting it together,
it can weigh a little bit their way.

Speaker 2 (31:09):
I get that, and.

Speaker 1 (31:10):
That probably would be in and when people can actually
become legal. Okay, we'll put something together. Can we shut
down your border that you said you couldn't do? All right,
we're bringing in this stuff. Now, what are the fighting
us on? The fighting on the gang members leave in
the country, that's what they're fighting us on.

Speaker 2 (31:30):
I don't get it. I just I can't believe they
think the American people want them to do that.

Speaker 1 (31:36):
You know, I think, well, you can see what's happening.
I mean, you look at the where people get their
news from. No one's listening to the CNN, MSNBC. They're
ratings the way down because no one wants to even.

Speaker 2 (31:49):
Watch it, and the talking the same talk exactly.

Speaker 1 (31:51):
Tired of it. They're tired of listening to them say
you're a dictator. You're a Nazi, You're this, You're that.
They're tired of it. Give me a plan, and that's
what we do here. We make plans for people.

Speaker 2 (32:01):
Weather. It's been nice enough but mostly working out outside.
But on a month last month, this past Monday was
actually chilly. It drove me to the gym and I'm
watching TV and at CN and of courses in front
of me on the treadmill. And it's the same old
station I looked at a month or two ago, same thing.

(32:22):
Anyone that has anything disparaging to say about Trump?

Speaker 4 (32:25):
Bramon, you just had such a great transition to talking
about the financial plan that we do here, and you
just ran it off with weather and CNN.

Speaker 3 (32:33):
Yeah, crazy, Go back.

Speaker 4 (32:36):
Go back to the plan. Why we have plans. We
create the financial plan. That's what we do here because
we believe everybody needs a plan in order to retire
the way you want. And it also alleviates a lot
of stress from when you if you don't have a plan,
then a lot more nervous of going into retirement, of
how long your money will last in retirement, will you
run out of money?

Speaker 3 (32:54):
Are you investing correctly? Are you too aggressive?

Speaker 4 (32:55):
Are you not aggressive enough, Especially in this last six weeks,
a lot of people have been very nervous. Are they
too aggressive? Do they need to pull back? Do they
need to raise cash? And if you've never done a plan,
if you've never looked at your risk tolerance, is something
you should do sooner.

Speaker 3 (33:09):
Rather than later.

Speaker 4 (33:09):
And that's why we offer this plan for free, the
risk tolerance for free, because we're here to help. We're
here to educate you on how you're looking in retirement,
going into retirement, and what it all could be like.

Speaker 6 (33:21):
And one of the most important parts of the plan
is a budget, and most people aren't really good at budget.
The government's also not very good at the budget, which
makes hard to actually formulate a plan when the budget
isn't pen.

Speaker 2 (33:33):
Yeah, because of the revenue from the internet bubble.

Speaker 6 (33:37):
Right, So when your budget's all over the place, the
plan is not really gonna I mean, if you're shooting
for one hundred and twenty thousand dollars a year and
a financial plan they're really spending one hundred and sixty,
there's going to be a disconnect there, right, There's going
to be a problem. So that's one of the cool
things about the plan though, is we can see what
is the max end of the spending range.

Speaker 1 (33:55):
Well, let's look at that's too much spending. They're spending
four forty dollars more than they should, okay.

Speaker 5 (34:02):
Or what they plan for.

Speaker 1 (34:03):
They planned for. So say it takes some eight years,
all right, they say they're seventy two years old, okay,
and they want to spend more money. They're spending more
until they're about eighty eighty two years old. Right, So
what ends up happening is, Okay, you run out of money. Well,
what's the next plan after that? A lot of people go,
I got a I got my house fully paid for.

Speaker 2 (34:23):
It's worth a million and a half dollars.

Speaker 1 (34:25):
Then they turn that into a machine for the next
ten years and after eighty. So there is a plan
that you can spend more money, do more things, do
the things you need to do. It's just a matter
of understanding it. Not everyone wants to do that, and
that's fine, But if you get yourself in the bind,
we make sure you have the fallback.

Speaker 6 (34:44):
Yeah, and it's kind of along the right what we're
saying with the spending range. If you know that you're
not on the top end of your spending range, you
have room to not stick to it exact number. You
can say, Okay, it's just not going to be that
much more at the end of the plan versus if
I spent towards what I thought was originally.

Speaker 1 (35:01):
And when things are good, we want you to spend money,
take money, go on that trip by to fix that kitchen,
buy that car.

Speaker 6 (35:06):
And everyone's different too. Some people want to leave nothing
on the end, some people want to leave something right.
And so depending on that you have this maybe depend
you know, stick within a spending range. But most people,
what we find is they can spend a little bit
more than they think. They're just so stuck on that frugal.

Speaker 2 (35:23):
Seventy two year old retired doctor and he and his
wife are travel in the world and he said, we're
gonna do it all we can. And there's something to
be said for that, because there comes to time when
you can't anymore, and.

Speaker 1 (35:32):
It comes to time that we have to say we
got to take a break and we'll be right back.
We appreciate you listening. It's the Money Matter Show.

Speaker 2 (35:39):
Thanks, good morning, Welcome back to The Money Matter Show.
This is Dave Sherwood. I'm here with Dean Greenberg. I've
got Dylan Greenberg, I've got Todd Gligg Junior, and then
the wings Sebastian Borsini.

Speaker 5 (35:50):
I mean, the market didn't do much anything that was exciting.

Speaker 2 (35:53):
It was interesting because Dylan said earlier in the first
segment about their second segment about the people being nervous
and having the plan and revisiting the plan and whether
or not they need to do something different. At the
end of the week, despite all of the tariff tantrums,
the market was down three point eight percent for the year.

(36:16):
For the year, we're down three point eight percent. Turn
off the TV.

Speaker 6 (36:21):
Yeah, and it's some of the risk assets that have
still kind of been in the laggard position. We got
the NASUAK still down seven point two for the year,
the rustle two thousand, the small caps down nine point one,
which really have not got the bounce ever since that
April sell off that we saw. But what has is
other space like bitcoin. Bitcoin back above one hundred thousand dollars,

(36:41):
one hundred and three thousand dollars on Friday.

Speaker 2 (36:44):
So six percent on the week.

Speaker 5 (36:46):
It was down to like seventy three thousand.

Speaker 2 (36:48):
It was, yeah, on that April cell off, and that
would not have been hard just a month ago.

Speaker 1 (36:51):
Okay, we're talking about it. On the trading basis, it
looks like there's some resistance between what one oh.

Speaker 5 (36:56):
Five and well, definitely at one away. I think that's
that's the high. So those are resistance.

Speaker 2 (37:02):
I think it could break through this time.

Speaker 1 (37:05):
But you know, obviously bitcoins, like everything else, that goes
up and down. Kay, if you added something to it
down the aile if you're if you have a big
enough position and didn't like it go down, take some
off between one.

Speaker 6 (37:17):
I do think because of the fact that we with
a slow economy, you got two things that are gonna
impact bitcoin. One thing, risk assets not being a protractive
that hurts bitcoin. But central banks lowering interest rates, injecting
money into the system helps bitcoin. So which one of
these sides we see. We've seen gold already continue to

(37:38):
it's rise back. I mean it sold off last week
but had a good week this week as well. Oil's
bounced back good this week, goes up two and a
half dollars to sixty one dollars a barrow. So there
is some movements in the commodity space. We've seen inflation
pick up. We got a big inflation report next week
to see how that progress we're seeing, because, like you said, Dave,
if we have a negative quarter like we had less

(37:59):
in Q one, and then if we have negative quarter
again in Q two with increasing inflation, potentially if we
see next week, then you get a stagflation scenario. No
one's gonna like that, and that could put markets in
a bad place.

Speaker 2 (38:10):
And that's Tuesday morning, before the open, we get the CPI.
Thursday morning, before the open, we get the PPI, which
is the wholesale version of the CPI. Big numbers, big numbers,
important numbers. Although we've talked before, two of the major
components of CPI, shelter which is housing in rents right apartments,

(38:31):
and oil haven't done anything. So I don't know.

Speaker 1 (38:35):
I don't say you all set each other problem.

Speaker 2 (38:37):
I don't.

Speaker 1 (38:37):
Yeah, I don't think this is the biggest problem I'm having.
Remember they were the big fans of after the pandemic,
inflation's transitory. There was nothing about that. I thought it
was transitory. We had a shutdown of the world, We
had so many trillions of dollars pumped into the world.

(38:58):
How was it going to be non inflationary over the
next two three four years, right, and now we understand
why prices might go higher. They're temporary, it's tariffs. They're
gonna be reversed. It's gonna be deals. And with the
oil down, everything's down. But they don't want to they
don't want to get ahead of the game. I'm sorry.

(39:20):
I just believe they did that right before the election
to try to help, and I think right now they're
doing it there. I hate to think that the FED,
who's supposed to be independent, isn't trying to, you know,
hurt one side or the other.

Speaker 6 (39:34):
They never try to get out in front of things
though we know that it neva FED. They drive the
car with the rear view mirror and they look with
lagging data to make their decisions. They're never they never
do something beforehand. I mean the one time they did
they shot themselves in the foot when they rose interest
rates back in twenty eight.

Speaker 1 (39:51):
And who was president then, tru Trump and who told
them not to do it Trump, and then they had
to go back Trumps telling them again get in front
of it. Right now, you think it's just this guy Bassett,
I think it's one of the smartest guys that we've
had around in a long time. He understands the interaction
of currencies and economies throughout the world. He really does,

(40:16):
and I mean he knows what he's doing. And so
many other people there are so smart. All right, these
guys ran they didn't I mean, think about who who
was in there before the mayor of Indiana, Okay, things
like that. You've got guys that ran hedge funds, that

(40:38):
ran financial companies that understand this. And I said, this
is my monologue, why is it, okay, we're in such
a bit Have you ever thought about why so many
people are on government assistance now compared to twenty thirty,
forty fifty years ago, Dave, when we grew up, if
somebody was on unemployment, it was horrendous, embarrassing. Much less

(41:01):
food stamps or or or or or goff of bed welfare. Okay,
today people try to be fraudulent to get that stuff.

Speaker 2 (41:13):
Social security disability is a career path.

Speaker 1 (41:16):
It's unbelievable in this country that that mindset my they needs.

Speaker 6 (41:20):
To change wasn't entitlement mindset that was developed very young.
It was it developed in the school systems over the
last thirty years. And you can see it just how
people are now.

Speaker 1 (41:30):
Well, it plays out best where in the major college sports. Okay,
the biggest entitled people in the world are basketball players
next to football players. Okay, they just entitled now.

Speaker 6 (41:43):
Yeah, like specifically football players, like the corners and receivers.
I feel like the biggest team.

Speaker 2 (41:48):
But basketball you only have five.

Speaker 5 (41:49):
They're old titled, right, right right.

Speaker 2 (41:51):
I think that they deserve all the money.

Speaker 4 (41:54):
And it's become very individualized. The whole culture of sports.
Even though you're a team sport, five guys on I
think twenty two guys on a field, the eleven guys on
your one side. It's usually supposed to be a team
sport where the team is bigger than yourself, and now
it's yourself is bigger than everybody else because you matter
more than everybody else.

Speaker 3 (42:10):
That started selfish.

Speaker 1 (42:12):
iPods, iPads, iPhones, I I I.

Speaker 5 (42:19):
So you blame old jobs.

Speaker 1 (42:21):
I blame the name of the iPhone, ipay, iPhone absolutely
everyone started to become very selfish. Then I don't need
anybody else. I up my iPhone, my ipay, my iPod.

Speaker 2 (42:30):
Well, you don't even know what an iPod was. You
know what that was?

Speaker 5 (42:33):
Yes, I know what iPods is. It's you play music
at it?

Speaker 2 (42:37):
What are you taking it? I'm just wondering.

Speaker 5 (42:38):
I'm not that old, young of me.

Speaker 1 (42:40):
You know, what to collect call is?

Speaker 6 (42:41):
Yes, you had this story, that's okay. I've had a
I've had a collect call, just in the modern days.

Speaker 5 (42:48):
They just asked you. They don't collect college.

Speaker 2 (42:51):
One of our young people who will remain un named
the other day and we were driving down the street
and I said, do you know that's not that's not
being developed because you're not good the ingress egress blank
stare So anyway, Uh, you know Trump wants to have
ten percent tariffs. He said, that's ideal, right, ten percent tariffs.
What do you think that will bring in in revenue?

(43:12):
This is an interesting statistic. What do you think a
ten percent tariff, assuming it's they can enforce it, what
do you think a ten percent tariff would bring in
in total revenue annually?

Speaker 3 (43:25):
They're in a billion.

Speaker 2 (43:26):
That's I was going to say three hundred billion, very close.
Guy's two undred and fifty yeah, two to fifty two
fifty billion billion, yeah, b yeah, that would be used
to reduce our debt.

Speaker 1 (43:35):
Let's talk about that deal with ukkay. Of course, the
left is trying to shut it down. Not a big deal. Nothing.
I listened to the Prime Minister during that the broadcast
on the phone talking about how incredible it is that
after twenty five years they we would put a deal
together with the United States and that for twenty five

(43:56):
years that UK and the United States did not have
a deal. Yeah, yees, Okay, now they do and people
do it. Is it a perfect deal no? Is it
a good deal for both sides?

Speaker 2 (44:07):
Yes?

Speaker 1 (44:07):
Now did we have to make concessions yes? Did they
make concessions yes, But the Rolls Royce engine comes to
Boeing right with no tariffs in reverse.

Speaker 2 (44:18):
You know what the UK does.

Speaker 1 (44:20):
They buy ten billion dollars worth of plane orders from Boweing. Okay,
not bad.

Speaker 2 (44:25):
And they're thinking initially was that Boying could be one
of the big beneficiaries of all of this trade talk
stof because that's one of the places where the guys
can get a lot of revenue.

Speaker 4 (44:34):
Well, you're saying twenty five years it took them to
make a deal, and then weren't they part of the
EU until like a decade ago they got to brexit
and the EU's now complaining to the World Trade Organization
saying tarras are inherently against the WTO. So now you
can see why UK never was able to make a
deal until they got away from the EU. The U's
philosophy and their thoughts are much different than UK.

Speaker 2 (44:54):
Clearly, the whole mindset, the whole mindset of that thing.
Hey Gan, you talk about the roy in twent he's
quite a bit. I was watching a special the other
I thought, I actually thought about you. But you talked
about the Roaring twenties and it came after the pandemic, right, right,
So we had a pandemic. Now we're going to have
the Rowing twenties again. You know. One of the things
that that that blew me away about this special I

(45:16):
was watching is through the entirety you think of the
twenties as a as a big party time, the flappers,
you know, everybody enjoying a lot of prosperity. Uh. During
that entire time, the United States was in probition. There
was no alcohol that could legally be sold, legally be
sold during the Roaring twenties. I thought that was really interesting.

Speaker 5 (45:36):
Yeah, you know about speakeasies, right, you know, why do.

Speaker 2 (45:38):
You know why prohibition came about? Because the industrial evolution.
The Industrial evolution could not get workers to work on
time because the US had such a severe alcohol problem.

Speaker 1 (45:50):
I remember the Industrial Revolution was the invention of the
cars and stuff like that. Right, yeah, well, what are
we going through now. It's not a new call, but
it's going to be driverless costs. Pretty cool, isn't it
a revolution?

Speaker 3 (46:03):
It's the next revolution.

Speaker 1 (46:05):
There's a whole other revolution coming out they had the
Industrial Revolution.

Speaker 4 (46:10):
We'll think about how much quicker industrial revolution made everything
with all the different engines and stuff like that. AI
is making everything quicker and a whole different way.

Speaker 3 (46:17):
You didn't know about it.

Speaker 2 (46:17):
You know that all of the wayme old vehicles are jaguars.
I didn't know that. They're all jaguar issues.

Speaker 1 (46:23):
I like those things. When you bring those little things up,
those are cool. You know my thing about the about
the weather? No, no, the weather, no weather.

Speaker 5 (46:32):
Another cool thing.

Speaker 6 (46:34):
The interesting thing about prohibition is while alcohol was illegal,
cannabis was legal. And then when they re legalized alcohol,
they made cannabis illegal.

Speaker 2 (46:44):
And the eighteenth Amendment was the pro and the twenty
first Amendment was the only amendment ever to revoke a
previous amendment ever revoked the eighteenth Amendment.

Speaker 1 (46:56):
All right, we got a heart break coming up. I
want to thank everybody for listening. We got a whole
nother to talk about your money and how it's affected
by everything that's going on, and we'll give you some
tips I want to do going forward.

Speaker 2 (47:07):
Thank you for listening.

Speaker 4 (47:09):
Welcome back to the second hour of the Money Matter Show.
We were Dave Sherwood, Todd Glick, Sebastian Borsini, and Dean Greenberg.
For those of you just turning in, the Dow was
down point two percent for the last week, SMP five
hundred was down a half a percent, NASDAK was down
point three percent, and the Russell two thousand was up
point one percent, and the equal weighted SMP five hundred

(47:31):
was up almost a half a percent. So for the year,
the equal weighted five hundred is only down a percent
and a half, which means the whole markets as a
whole isn't as down as much as we think it is.
And how you feel for the last five weeks, it's
really driven by small tech and our small cap which
isn't part of the SMP, but tech is a big
one that's down seven percent for the year.

Speaker 2 (47:51):
I've had a few calls, not a lot, but a
few calls, and the marks down one and a half percent,
the overall marks down one and a half percent for
the year.

Speaker 3 (48:00):
Well, it's funny.

Speaker 4 (48:01):
I mean, it's more about the volatility and the uncertainty
of what could happen to the markets eleading indicator. So
they're thinking the people that are calling the nerves or
of course nervous for the next six months, which the
market usually talks about when you're trying to delete an indicator.

Speaker 3 (48:15):
So I mean it's warranted.

Speaker 4 (48:17):
Yeah, see those drops last August, we were getting a
couple of calls when you're drops seven percent, so.

Speaker 7 (48:22):
When you're having a thousand point drops in the doll yeah,
which is a.

Speaker 2 (48:24):
Reminder that every single decline in history has been an
opportunity to buy, not to sell.

Speaker 4 (48:31):
Well, this one was also fueled by media as wells
which is I mean, you're expected. One thing we didn't
talk about last hour, and we didn't talk about last
show because as you know, we record these on Friday.
Warn Buffer retired last Saturday.

Speaker 2 (48:44):
But he became the chairman. He's going to retire as
at the end of the year.

Speaker 3 (48:48):
Yeah, he announced retirement out his shareholder meeting.

Speaker 2 (48:52):
Yeah, he'll be ninety five in August. He retires at
the end of the year, and actually what he retires
to is chairman of the board.

Speaker 3 (48:58):
They unanimously voted him in.

Speaker 2 (49:00):
So, Dan, what do you think is going to travel
now or what?

Speaker 3 (49:03):
No? I think travel?

Speaker 5 (49:05):
Boy, he's got four meetings a year, he's got a ten.

Speaker 3 (49:08):
Yeah, I think he's gonna sit in his house that
he's living for eighty years.

Speaker 2 (49:11):
Listen to the same house he's lived in Omaha.

Speaker 4 (49:14):
I saw the story he bought a four billion dollar
company from Israel a year like twenty years ago.

Speaker 3 (49:20):
He never visited it. He never saw it.

Speaker 4 (49:22):
He just looked at their papers and stuff, and they
asked him, why didn't you go fly over there and visit.
He's like, I don't even want to go to Iowa.
I'm not flying across the world. He was at the
Helm for sixty years. Guess how much his return was
in that time?

Speaker 2 (49:36):
Oh, it was ridiculous. I guess like what I see
is like, I can't build a million, four million, percent.

Speaker 3 (49:43):
Five point five million, five point five million. You put
ten thousand dollars in nineteen sixty five, you would have
five hundred fifty million dollars. Oh, he didn't touch it.

Speaker 2 (49:51):
It's amazing crazy, Yeah, I know. He's just an absolutely
amazing guy. And the interesting part. If you don't know
about Warren Buffett's personal life, google him. It's a it's
a very interesting guy, very interesting guy with a very
interesting personal life. His wife. I think he's still married
to her. Right, it's living in California for the last

(50:11):
fifty years.

Speaker 3 (50:12):
Well, it doesn't seem like it's that interesting.

Speaker 7 (50:14):
No, it's not that interesting at all.

Speaker 3 (50:16):
Life isn't that interesting because it's not billion dollars.

Speaker 2 (50:19):
Well, you wouldn't expect that from exactly. It seems like
the straight and arrow kind of guy, but really kind
of interesting and lives in the same house he lived
in the last eighty years.

Speaker 7 (50:30):
I was reading something that the way he orders a
McDonald's for breakfast, his sausage McMuffin is dependent on what
the market is doing that day.

Speaker 2 (50:38):
But he loves McDonald's and he loves he loves diet coke,
big diet coke guy. And uh so, yeah, he's really
good genetics.

Speaker 5 (50:47):
Don't you do, doctor pepper Coke? You do coke? Is
that why you do coke?

Speaker 2 (50:53):
I don't do coke. I drink diet coke. I don't
do coke. Okay, No, he doesn't like it's talking about
the eighties.

Speaker 3 (50:59):
Now, coke's like a sugar.

Speaker 2 (51:03):
Let's not bring up the eighties.

Speaker 3 (51:04):
Here was drinking regular coke.

Speaker 2 (51:08):
You know, I've always said about the sixties. If you
remember the sixties, you weren't there. Uh. Economy, economy continues
to show a few cracks.

Speaker 3 (51:17):
Uh.

Speaker 2 (51:18):
The consumer confidence here at the lowest level since twenty eleven.
And I think a lot of that's due to the
h triff tantrums, you know, the chaos that's that's been around.
That Q one GDP, as we know, was the negative number.
Is Q two going to be a negative number? It
kind of feels like it kind of feels like it
could be a negative GDP this quarter.

Speaker 6 (51:39):
Where do you think they come with out Like what
questions do you think they ask in consumer confidence?

Speaker 2 (51:44):
Are you confident?

Speaker 5 (51:46):
I'm not confident?

Speaker 2 (51:47):
Like you know what, No, I get it, I get it.
I have no.

Speaker 6 (51:50):
Wonder you say, yeah, you say it too. It's not
a market mover. If you said that many times, it's
not just wonder what it? Uh fortails, because does it
does it really matter what the consumers thinking or does
it more matter like what business owners are thinking.

Speaker 2 (52:04):
It's really the temperature of the economy, what people feel.
It's the temperature of your feelings because it changes. That's
why it's not a market move.

Speaker 6 (52:13):
Well, do you care more about the people that are
setting the prices of the people that are buying?

Speaker 2 (52:16):
Yeah, I don't care anything about consumer confidence other than
it's an interesting to see it's the lowest it's spend
in fourteen years.

Speaker 6 (52:22):
But like if you were getting the confidence of all
the top business owners.

Speaker 2 (52:27):
Sure that'd be more important, wouldn't it, right, be way
more important than consumer confidence. And then you know, you
get the negative GDP, you get the consumer confidence number,
and then bang, last Friday would get a giant jobs report, strong,
very strong jobs report, and Amazon came out last week
said they're not seeing any weakening of orders or increasing

(52:50):
of prices.

Speaker 5 (52:50):
Lift also came out yesterday and said.

Speaker 3 (52:52):
The same thing.

Speaker 2 (52:53):
Yeah Friday, last night, Friday, Yeah, I have done.

Speaker 7 (52:55):
You had Expedia come out with their earnings and say
that they're seeing a slow down a travel across the
You know, it's.

Speaker 6 (53:01):
Which I was really surprised about. Subjectively, I did not
think there was. It felt like there was a slowdown
of travel in Q one.

Speaker 2 (53:08):
But I think the market hates more than anything else
is uncertainty. And right now we've got it in spades.
And you look at what Trump's doing. And I was
talking to a client who was on the other side
of the fence about and she was a little nervous,
and I said, you know, no one has We're going

(53:30):
broke as a country. We're slowly but steadily going broke.
Somebody has to do something, and thank goodness, somebody's trying
to do something. This is the first time anybody's tried
to do anything. And as long as I can remember,
And and do you like him? Doesn't matter? Do you

(53:50):
like what he's doing? Kind of doesn't matter. Is he
trying to make things better?

Speaker 1 (53:56):
Yes?

Speaker 2 (53:57):
Yes, I don't think anybody can argue that he's not
trying to do. You may not like his approach, you
may not like him personally. I get that, But he's
trying to fix a broken system. How do you fight
against that? How do you not think that that's a
good idea? China suffering, They're they're suffering as much as

(54:22):
more than we are. Certainly there's factories closing, there's people
getting laid off. We've been hearing about social unrest increasing
in China. At the end of the day, China. Of
China's exports, the US buys fifteen percent of what China

(54:44):
exports fifteen percent of what the US buys sixteen percent.
One six comes from China, sixteen percent. It's a big number.
I think the people in the United States suffering most
right now from these one hundred and forty five percent
tariffs are the our agriculture farmers. Farmers. Armers are the

(55:07):
ones getting hit the hardest, and they're getting hit with
a sledgehammer that can't go on for a long period
of time. You're gonna start to see farms closed there,
go out of business, and we're gonna start seeing bankruptcy
in the in the in the farm belt. Not yet,
this is all pretty brand new. Hopefully this weekend they'll

(55:27):
start to get to start to some negotiations China in
the US meeting in Switzerland to talk trade. Hopefully that'll
be the beginning. Trump had a little bit more conciliatory
attitude on Friday, talking about reducing China tariffs to fifty percent,
which is still ridiculous.

Speaker 5 (55:46):
That's all more around eight eighty.

Speaker 2 (55:48):
Yeah, yeah, I saw, I saw him, But they could
have gone fifty to eighty. I saw fifty.

Speaker 7 (55:53):
You're just pulling numbers out of there anyway, pulling numbers
out of the area.

Speaker 6 (55:56):
This morning morning on Friday, is like tweeted out eighty
percent seemed fair. Yeah, that was the number he felt
fair this morning.

Speaker 3 (56:04):
I don't know where he got that number.

Speaker 2 (56:05):
I don't think relevant because forty five percent is a
trading Barko is.

Speaker 5 (56:11):
Well, he's trying to spark the talks.

Speaker 6 (56:12):
Obviously, he says if the talks go well this week,
they'll get actual Z and him in a room, and
that will really be the bell if we get an actual.

Speaker 5 (56:23):
Change or not there.

Speaker 6 (56:23):
But yeah, right now, that's going to be the next
thing that really moves to market. We know we have
the CPI inflation report on Tuesday, the PPI on Thursday.
That's going to be for sure on market mover. But
the big one that we're all waiting for is the
China US trade deal. We already got all the earnings reports.
Pretty much over ninety percent of the S and P
of is now reported right now. Blended growth stands at

(56:45):
around approximately thirteen and a half percent. That's up seven
point two percent at end of quarter one, so it has,
you know, much better than what we expected. But again
we're kind of doesn't matter because you're looking in the
room of your mirror of an economy that the and
have tariffs on it. So it it definitely helped stocks
get a bottom here. Obviously the other trade deal frameworks

(57:07):
that have been unveiled.

Speaker 5 (57:08):
Have helped sucks as well.

Speaker 6 (57:10):
But at the end of the day, the guidance has
been kind of wishy washy on both sides. Some say
that there's going to be impact, some say they don't know,
some say there are going to be no impact.

Speaker 2 (57:21):
It is interesting. It is interesting to companies in the
same industry saying I'd say it looks a little bleak,
and and somebody in the same industry going, no, we're
looking good.

Speaker 6 (57:31):
It's really there's not a consensus that you can feel
just yet on it. On business owner perspective, the Q.

Speaker 2 (57:38):
One earn each side had been pretty strong. Companies like Microsoft,
it just blew the.

Speaker 5 (57:43):
Number away, but even Google did too.

Speaker 6 (57:46):
Yeah, if you look at their numbers, which we were
talking about, add those advertising numbers. If you look at
meta advertising numbers. We were saying, that's your canary in
the Coalmont. If you don't get good numbers there, especially
in a quarter where we saw negative GDP growth, that's
going to be like, okay, yeah, that's really bad.

Speaker 5 (58:01):
But they killed it.

Speaker 2 (58:02):
Well when Apple came out last week and said that
they've seen a uh noticeable decline in Safari for search engine,
and that sent Google lower because everybody goes, oh, boy,
these uh, these young people are all going to alternative
search engine.

Speaker 7 (58:20):
Yeah, but Safari is not Google.

Speaker 2 (58:21):
Is Apple? Yeah?

Speaker 5 (58:23):
Apple, No, yeah, and Safari is on that boy.

Speaker 6 (58:26):
Apple commented that Google is the search engine automatically.

Speaker 2 (58:29):
Had dropped I see Google, and Apple was already down
because of the trades.

Speaker 6 (58:37):
And Google said, no, we have had actually more search
quarries than we had. They're continuing to grow. They're quarries
of searches, they're users of Safari on of Google have
continued to grow. So they kind of said that's not
true through their own report, but still Google ended it
down seven percent on the week. They've had some trouble, obviously,

(58:58):
the big do O J anti trust lawsuits hanging over
their head.

Speaker 5 (59:02):
I think it's kind of putting fresher on.

Speaker 6 (59:03):
The star on the background, but then you have this
front end rumor news just keep hitting it, even though
again they reported a really strong quarter on money making.
If you look at their pe, they're the cheapest of
the Max seven's by far right now.

Speaker 2 (59:17):
But most of the most of the lawsuit news, and
most of the lawsuit decisions, or you know, with anything
as large as this, there are decisions along the way.
Most of them are going against Google, which makes it
look alphabet, which makes it look like they're going to
have to break the company up. And that's a big uncertainty.
Don't get me wrong.

Speaker 7 (59:37):
I use Google every single day, but I do think
that with chat GPT, I use it noticeably less.

Speaker 2 (59:43):
I have a very I could say that too, I
have a very volatile relationship with chat GPT.

Speaker 7 (59:49):
Volatile.

Speaker 2 (59:51):
We don't get along well, we don't get along great.
I use I use Google a lot, and I use
Chat GPT from time to time, and and we just
don't seem to be able to get on the same page.
What I don't know, I don't know. It's for instance,
I asked a question today and it said, let me search,

(01:00:14):
and it searched for like thirty seconds. Google would have
given me five answered by now over there.

Speaker 7 (01:00:20):
Yeah, but don't you wanted to compile like a good
sound data set or what.

Speaker 2 (01:00:25):
I wanted to think about it? I wanted to know it.

Speaker 5 (01:00:28):
Well that's the problem.

Speaker 2 (01:00:30):
Yes it is, Yes, yes, you you.

Speaker 6 (01:00:32):
Don't pay for the good one that I mean you
should see what it's able to do. I mean you
wait for you know, so like when I put it
in a request, I get it first come first serve
your freebies.

Speaker 5 (01:00:41):
You have to wait to get it.

Speaker 7 (01:00:43):
And if more people are using it, your free use
chat GBT corey that you just implied or that you
just asked it now it's gonna take.

Speaker 6 (01:00:52):
It goes onto a wait list, just like a restaurant,
because these quarries cost a lot of energy, right, and
they're only going to give priority to the ones that
are paying. It's just like if we're going onto an airplane,
only one prompt question can get on the plane at once,
and it costs a lot of money each spot on
the plane, right, So you can only get one on
the plane at one time. Yours is less priority. So

(01:01:13):
you're in c group. Mine's in a group. Every time
I get one on front of the line, front of
the line, so mine will slow down your answer.

Speaker 2 (01:01:20):
So what you're saying is I can walk up to
the Google window and get my soda, or I.

Speaker 5 (01:01:25):
Can go because Google Spirit.

Speaker 2 (01:01:27):
I can go to the DPT window and wait in line.

Speaker 6 (01:01:30):
Right because Google Spirit, and so you don't have to
pay for it as much Google.

Speaker 5 (01:01:35):
And it's the worst experience Google.

Speaker 2 (01:01:36):
And I are till death, do I part. Oil was
up three bucks last week to sixty one dollars. Did
hit a four year low during the week, it did.

Speaker 6 (01:01:45):
I mean, the gas price has got to be looking
good for everyone right now a little bit, but realistically,
I think they're artificially artificially low at this point.

Speaker 2 (01:01:53):
I don't I didn't find it now. I don't buy
gas that often because I have a lot ric.

Speaker 5 (01:01:57):
Oh you do, I haven't heard.

Speaker 2 (01:01:59):
My wife wanted to me to fill your car with
gas the other day, and you know, it's such a
primitive thing. I drove over there and get this thing
out of it. You don't like the smell of it,
get on your hands, Oh my goodness, it's just it's
just such so yesterday.

Speaker 7 (01:02:15):
You're such a prima donna with it.

Speaker 2 (01:02:18):
But I know it's a premium for like three ninety
at qt. That that didn't seem.

Speaker 5 (01:02:23):
Like, oh you take premium, that's crazy.

Speaker 2 (01:02:25):
Ye yeah, take premium.

Speaker 7 (01:02:26):
I put in to eighty, yeah, to eighty right now.
I want to go back real quick. Just I wanted
to actually get the real source. You guys were talking
about the energy costs that is associated with asking chat
GBT a question. Somebody asked Sam Altman, how much money
does it cost to tell chat gbt? Please and thank you?
How much energy are we wasting as consumers on this?
Tens of millions of dollars, is what Sam sam Altman said.

(01:02:49):
I'm saying, please answer this question for me, thank you.

Speaker 2 (01:02:54):
But we've got to make this illegal.

Speaker 6 (01:02:56):
It seems like, I mean, people, it's so funny because
every single time you ask something, even if it's an
irrelevant thing, costing a lot of energy and money.

Speaker 7 (01:03:05):
So for any of you people just asking it dumb questions,
think about who you're hurting on the other side.

Speaker 6 (01:03:10):
Well, when they used to talk about bitcoin mining, it's
like it's costing the world. It's like, yeah, think about
how many times like you asking it how to make
chicken off freight of burning the skies have fun.

Speaker 2 (01:03:21):
Yeah, oh my goad. So just be be discriminating with
your questions or if you're going to go to Chad GPG.

Speaker 6 (01:03:27):
Just think about how expensive each one of yours want
to ask you anything?

Speaker 2 (01:03:31):
Are gold been down for two consecutive weeks, bounced back
up one hundred and ten dollars to thirty three thirty
five last week.

Speaker 6 (01:03:39):
Interest rates rose. Yeah, rates are flattening though. We got
a little bit of a bear flattening going on.

Speaker 2 (01:03:45):
Well, jumped up a teak are two year went from
three eighty three to three eighty eight to ten year
went from four thirty one to four thirty eight. So
interest rates are rising and mortgage rating.

Speaker 5 (01:03:55):
But the mortgage rades didn't nothing. They stayed flat on
the week.

Speaker 6 (01:03:57):
But hanging around seven right, six point seven six for
the twenty percent down. Good credit person right now for
the Freddie Meck.

Speaker 2 (01:04:04):
I got a friend who's a mortgage banker and he
is not a happy boy.

Speaker 5 (01:04:08):
I've heard that and a couple of them.

Speaker 2 (01:04:11):
Boy, I talk about a busy week for GLP one.
GLP one is the weight loss drug.

Speaker 5 (01:04:16):
Oh yeah, you should have.

Speaker 6 (01:04:17):
Looked at a Novo chart. We was talking about me
and Sebastian. We're talking about this, how each one of
the days it looked like the schizophrenic dru it.

Speaker 7 (01:04:26):
It's disgusting, Dave. It's like the gappiest chart that you
will ever see.

Speaker 2 (01:04:31):
Well, how about Lily. Lily dropped eleven percent on the
week and Noble was down five percent. Well, Hyms and
Hers jumps twenty seven percent. Noble said they're going to
allow Hims and Hurst to sell well Govi on their site,
which is a which is a big which is a
big deal. Right, and that dropped. That sent Hims up
twenty five percent, Lily down ten percent. In addition, get this,

(01:04:53):
Hyms ain't a deal with CBS to make well Goovi
the preferred weight loss drug for CVS. Now, correct me
if I'm wrong. CBS isn't writing the prescription.

Speaker 7 (01:05:06):
Writing no, no, CVS could be Now how could CBS
write The CBS could write you suppose if you go
into their minute counting, yeah, right, and CVS could just
the pharmacists out of Walgreens or CVS can write prescriptions
to birth control. Now there's plenty of drugs out there
that they're actually saying.

Speaker 2 (01:05:22):
Pharmacists at CBS could write a prescription for g l
P one.

Speaker 6 (01:05:26):
Yes, I think that's been the goal without without honor
become YEA interesting.

Speaker 2 (01:05:30):
I did not know that.

Speaker 7 (01:05:31):
And maybe maybe it's dependent on which company you're going to.
I don't know if Walgreen's yes, you could do it,
CBS if it's different.

Speaker 5 (01:05:37):
But yeah, I mean the idea of those minute clinics.

Speaker 7 (01:05:41):
Yeah, it seems like that's a great thing for Novo
and think it just can't get out of its own way.

Speaker 2 (01:05:46):
No, that that, and that that they would. But it's interesting.
Is it a great thing for a noble or does
it tell you that the demand is not what they
thought it would be. I don't know.

Speaker 7 (01:05:58):
I still don't think the man slowan for Yes, sure
is it slow in But are people still going to
be on this drug if you have started to take it?

Speaker 2 (01:06:06):
I think so, well you have to be and I
mean you have to keep taking it or you're going
to gain all the weight back. Yeah. I mean that's
that's pretty factual.

Speaker 6 (01:06:16):
And I don't think there's anything wrong with the business model.
But I think what's the like for hims it hurts?
Are they actually able to just produce it or are
they truly not going to have these generics.

Speaker 2 (01:06:27):
Because they know how to produce it because they gave
them the formulas.

Speaker 6 (01:06:30):
But are they're not really supposed to be allowed to
or are they just allowed to know what?

Speaker 5 (01:06:35):
I thought they pulled it back.

Speaker 2 (01:06:36):
The government said they can't, Okay, So.

Speaker 5 (01:06:39):
They have to be eventually running out of inventory or
they're doing something illegal.

Speaker 2 (01:06:42):
No or Noah's making it and shipping it to them, right.

Speaker 7 (01:06:46):
And I mean, look at companies like McDonald's reporting one
of their worst earnings ever, same thing with PEPSI down
about sixteen percent on the year. Are we seeing a
lifestyle change? Not because of the GLP ones entirely, but
I think it has something to do with it.

Speaker 2 (01:07:00):
It might have to the McDonald's reported their biggest drop
in same store sales since the pandemic.

Speaker 6 (01:07:06):
Right, I do think it Also a problem with McDonald's
is they're no longer a cheap food source. If you're
going into a recession, you're no longer thinking I'm gonna
go to McDonald's for my food tonight. As a consumer staple.
It's no, it's more of a consumer discretionary now because
of the price.

Speaker 1 (01:07:19):
People are doing instead of just going to McDonald's or
the fast food places they're actually going and saying for
what I'm paying there, I'm going to go to the
grocery store. Okay, I'm gonna get more food for the
money I'm spending. It just means that I have to
make it now.

Speaker 6 (01:07:34):
And there's other cheap options. I mean, I think the
really smart people or places like salad to go where
they're making a six dollars salad or something. I mean,
it seems like it's possible.

Speaker 1 (01:07:45):
Yeah, but people don't want to eat salads.

Speaker 2 (01:07:47):
A lot of.

Speaker 1 (01:07:48):
People, but to McDonald's a lot of them.

Speaker 5 (01:07:50):
Look, why can't there be a fast food place that
was that thing?

Speaker 1 (01:07:55):
So because if you think about it, how much is
it going to cost to actually get the real beef there?
I mean, you know, if you start dealing with like
just a plant and stuff like that, it might be.

Speaker 6 (01:08:05):
Well, some people don't want real beef. They just want
to eat right, and so they're okay with.

Speaker 1 (01:08:09):
Then they go to the store and they get beans
and the macaroni and and and and and grilled cheese
and things like that.

Speaker 5 (01:08:16):
Don't even have the dollar stores anymore.

Speaker 2 (01:08:18):
That's why Crafts been selling the one million dollars worth
of mac and cheese every day for the last seventy years.

Speaker 1 (01:08:25):
Yeah, yeah, it fills them up. Yeah, it fills mac
and cheese, will fill them up.

Speaker 2 (01:08:29):
You know what I mean at the prices. You know,
I get take out every night and I am absolutely
amazed at how much prices have gone up. Yeah, you're
routinely talking fourteen fifteen dollars for a standwich.

Speaker 5 (01:08:41):
And now you're tipping for it too, And you have
to do, right.

Speaker 1 (01:08:45):
I mean, yeah, you have to tip now on takeout.

Speaker 2 (01:08:48):
It's unbelievable.

Speaker 1 (01:08:49):
And that's not dude. You have to, but you feel
guilty if you.

Speaker 5 (01:08:51):
Don't because they put it there.

Speaker 1 (01:08:52):
It's just the tips right there. You don't have to
pay for, but the tips right there.

Speaker 6 (01:08:57):
Yeah, I mean you have to find you round up
for the kids at the hospital.

Speaker 5 (01:09:03):
Of course you have to.

Speaker 4 (01:09:05):
You.

Speaker 1 (01:09:06):
I gave you fifteen percent, Well most people are giving twenty.

Speaker 2 (01:09:12):
I got to take out, yeah, take out his to me,
take out his ten.

Speaker 1 (01:09:16):
And then here's the best you took go home and
it's the wrong order.

Speaker 2 (01:09:19):
Oh yeah, oh yeah.

Speaker 1 (01:09:21):
Are you giving back by twenty percent?

Speaker 2 (01:09:22):
Oh yeah, oh no, absolutely, I've had that happen in
the restaurant business.

Speaker 1 (01:09:27):
Understand the problems of restaurant business.

Speaker 2 (01:09:30):
Glad.

Speaker 1 (01:09:30):
I'm not really in the restaurant business right now.

Speaker 5 (01:09:33):
It's got to say, oh, it's you know how it is?

Speaker 2 (01:09:36):
Oh, no, you understand it. I mean, you understand you've had.

Speaker 1 (01:09:40):
I enjoyed the people. I enjoyed the relationships. It's kind
of like this business, you know. That's what I enjoy, Uh,
those type businesses, the client relationship, the customer relationship. What
I don't like is it idiosyncrasies of having to deal
with entitled people that think they're doing you a favor
when you're giving them a paycheck.

Speaker 2 (01:09:58):
Yeah you should. You said one time that the thing
that attracted you to the restaurant business was you could
every person left happy.

Speaker 1 (01:10:09):
You can make it if you can't make it right,
if you knew what was going on, you can make
everyone happy because what's the worst thing that happened? Service
was bad, or that they didn't like the food, You
change it, you give them a different meal, or if
everything's bad, I'm really, really really sorry. Okay, here's a
gift certificate of a coming back another time. Oh okay,

(01:10:31):
so you know, if they're gonna leave and hate you
and do it then and never use it, then that's fine,
you know what I mean, take your stuff off the
bill right there. If they didn't like the food, that's
one thing. But the other stuff, you know, because a
lot of people kind of get things. Here's a gift certificate,
come on back next time, and you know, a hundred bucks,
hundred whatever it is. If it depends on how much
it was, and if they don't want to use it,

(01:10:52):
then that's fine. They weren't coming back anyway.

Speaker 2 (01:10:54):
You know that stuff is meaningful and you're absolutely right
with With those kinds of things, you can you can
make somebody leave. Maybe they didn't enjoy the experience, but
you can make them leave happy and satisfied and that
they're gonna come.

Speaker 1 (01:11:07):
But what I couldn't get across to the service was can't
you see that table there? It's not enjoying what they're eating.
There's a problem. Can't you see it? Look at your table,
get off your phone, stop talking to each other, and
pay attention to what you're doing.

Speaker 7 (01:11:19):
People aren't personal enough, and they can.

Speaker 1 (01:11:21):
Tell by the way they're doing it.

Speaker 2 (01:11:22):
So what's wrong.

Speaker 1 (01:11:23):
Oh it's not what they expected. It's okay, you know,
go from there.

Speaker 2 (01:11:27):
Yeah, we'll be back right after this break with the
rest of the Money Matter Show. Thanks again for joining
this Welcome.

Speaker 7 (01:11:33):
Back to the Money Matter Show. My name is Sebastian Borsini,
David Sherwood, Dean Greenberg, and Todd Glick Junr.

Speaker 5 (01:11:38):
What do you see in this week, Sebastian, where the
markets headed?

Speaker 7 (01:11:41):
I don't know. With the VIX that give or take
twenty two, I think it the VIX. The VIX is
about volatility index and it measures fear and greed.

Speaker 2 (01:11:49):
I know something you would like to talk about.

Speaker 7 (01:11:51):
Well, can I tell you what? I'm gonna go ahead?

Speaker 3 (01:11:53):
What? No?

Speaker 2 (01:11:55):
I think it sounded like you didn't have any ideas.

Speaker 1 (01:11:56):
So you know, I think we don't know.

Speaker 7 (01:11:59):
I think here with the VIX twenty two, we're probably
gonna see it jump back up to near thirty.

Speaker 1 (01:12:04):
Where the market's gonna what's going to jump back to
toty the VIX and what will happen to the market
then go down? Okay, So you got to express this
to people?

Speaker 7 (01:12:10):
Well, I'm trying, but I keep getting interrupted.

Speaker 1 (01:12:12):
We'll bring you along, We'll bring you along.

Speaker 2 (01:12:15):
I have a hard time. I have a hard time
seeing the market falling until the China trade deals put together,
I think that'll be the peak.

Speaker 6 (01:12:22):
Okay, So you think we're gonna be buying this rumor
of the trade deal for the next couple of days
and potentially that break of event we sell.

Speaker 2 (01:12:31):
I just I just think there's just too many people
nervous about scared of being out fo FMO if you're
missing out.

Speaker 7 (01:12:39):
I think that if nothing happens with the trade deals
this weekend again, you see that vix jump and you
see the market go down.

Speaker 2 (01:12:44):
I think you could see the market down on Monday
if nothing comes out of it, or if the news
out of which on Onndays is negative. Yes, there could
be some weakness, but I don't think there's gonna be
any kind of a We saw the market drop twenty
percent right when this whole tariff tantrum thing started. I
don't think I don't think we'll see that again.

Speaker 5 (01:13:00):
Yeah.

Speaker 6 (01:13:01):
So what we did back in April seventh, we bought
some QQQ and SPY, and then about thirteen percent later
we did sell that same lot. So we bought down
at the lows and as we came back up here,
we did sell, kind of putting on our version of protection,
not deciding against putting on any SDS. But if you
did buy down in those lows, potentially this is the time.

(01:13:22):
If you weren't wanting to sell, you think about some
protection at these levels.

Speaker 2 (01:13:25):
You bring up a really good point, Todd. You do
not any longer need to sell. If you want to
become more defensive, it's far far easier and more sensible
simply to buy insurance. And the reason you do that
is because let's say the market had dropped twenty percent
and you decided, I need to buy some insurance. Now

(01:13:46):
it's come back almost the entire twenty percent. Anywhere along
there you could have sold the.

Speaker 7 (01:13:51):
Insurance and bought back at a lower price.

Speaker 1 (01:13:54):
It doesn't matter.

Speaker 2 (01:13:54):
I mean, you don't have to sell your whole portfolio,
buy your whole portfolio back and one secure and you can.
You can do one time the s and P five
hundred to two times or three times or four times,
so depending on how good. So if you had a
one hundred thousand dollars portfolio and it was all in
stock and you said, boy, I'd like to have about

(01:14:17):
twenty five percent of that in cash, well go ahead
and put eight percent in the three times the SMP
down and you've just done that. You've just done that
with one security. Then if you change your mind or
if things start to improve, sell that one security, right.

Speaker 7 (01:14:33):
Rather than trying to get in and out of the market.
You jump out out.

Speaker 2 (01:14:36):
Of eight, ten, twelve securities, fifteen, whatever it is.

Speaker 7 (01:14:38):
You jump out of the market. It runs away from
you up ten percent and you never get back in.

Speaker 2 (01:14:42):
It's so difficult.

Speaker 6 (01:14:43):
Yeah, you're mitigating your volatility. Day invested the ups and
downs that you think they invested.

Speaker 2 (01:14:50):
If you're nervous, turn off the TV.

Speaker 6 (01:14:53):
Cool thing about the strategy is if you're in a
taxable account and it goes you know, it does go down,
Sure you protected yourself. You're happy, you look like a genius.
If it goes against you and it goes up, you're
gonna lose on your insurance. But you can sell out
of that at eventual even for a loss, and those
losses will go against your gates, right, and so yeah,

(01:15:14):
you won't make as much. But then when you sell
your gains at hopefully at high's right, you do eventually
you eventually should take some chips off the table at
some points, not everything, but you can trim at certain points.
That's where those when you book, those gains can get
offset with those losses you book through your protection.

Speaker 2 (01:15:31):
I do everything I can to keep people from selling
because it's just so much easier to buy the insurance.

Speaker 5 (01:15:37):
Well, you're right, getting back in is a very hard thing.

Speaker 6 (01:15:39):
We talk about all the time is when do you
And most of the time, even if you do get
back in, you're gonna make fifty percent of what you
took out in at that one point.

Speaker 5 (01:15:47):
You're not gonna go all in all you.

Speaker 6 (01:15:49):
Know, you're not taking all out and all in on
two different trade events.

Speaker 2 (01:15:53):
Well, it's a whole lot easier Todd just say I
don't need the insurance anymore than it is to say, yeah, get.

Speaker 5 (01:15:57):
Me back Yes that emotionally.

Speaker 2 (01:16:01):
Emotionally, it's a much easier decision. I was gonna Sebastian
was going to give you an out there because I
know one thing you do want to talk about this
week was used.

Speaker 7 (01:16:09):
Cars, Yeah, Carvana.

Speaker 2 (01:16:10):
There was a lot of news in the used car space.

Speaker 7 (01:16:12):
Yeah Carvana, I mean used car markets. We talked a
little bit about in the show a couple of weeks back,
a couple months back, that it would start to heat
up just because of the auto tariffs that are going
to be put on new cars. That's you know, Carvana
had seen a price jump within their used car sales market,
and they reported the best earnings that they've had ever.

Speaker 2 (01:16:31):
Yeah, and then the used car market. Mayheim, which is
a used vehicle value indicator, reported that vehicle pricing jumped
last month to the highest level used car vehicles to
the highest level since October of twenty three. And again
this consumers rushing to buy amid fears of pricing.

Speaker 7 (01:16:50):
Cre And again Carvana just perfectly positioned for its after
buying that auction Adisa, because again that makes them vertically integrated.

Speaker 2 (01:16:57):
The one that I continue to scratch hit about his CarMax.
It took a twenty percent hit on Ernie's and it's
not bounced back. It's just kind of sitting there.

Speaker 7 (01:17:05):
CarMax.

Speaker 2 (01:17:06):
Yeah, you would think CarMax would would be a ganga.

Speaker 7 (01:17:09):
What do they and do they just sell used cars?

Speaker 2 (01:17:11):
You don't know Carmack. No, you've never heard of car
I've heard car Max. I don't know exactly they fail
used cars.

Speaker 7 (01:17:16):
Yeah, I mean I think Carvan is just destroying them.

Speaker 2 (01:17:19):
That apparently carbon is doing a lot better.

Speaker 8 (01:17:23):
But it sounds like yeah, right, so it's todd do
you something you look like you're I mean yeah, used
cars is crazy though, the used car marker is doing
and then and it's kind of funny this whole thing
with cars in general.

Speaker 4 (01:17:35):
It's like Ford, who's predominantly a US company, but they're
still having huge issues with tariffs because they have a
lot of factors around the world. And we found that out.
I mean even with FSLR. I was just saying that's
the most domestic solar panel company, which it is, and
even the CEO came out a week ago saying it
was unexpectedly hit US these terrorists because we have only
three factories outside the country, but they got hit. So

(01:17:57):
it's like the terriffs do hit everything, regardless how much
you are domestically made. Right now, the idea is you
got to shifted into making more here, and that's what
ultimately administration wants. But it hits it a lot with cars,
and that's why this used car world is going crazy again.

Speaker 2 (01:18:12):
That seems like a kind of an unequal playing field
that or maybe maybe a level playing field where everybody's
getting beat up the same, no better, whether you're Tesla.

Speaker 7 (01:18:21):
Want to go back real quick, and I think again,
Carvana is perfectly positioned for this just because it's used. Yes,
the used car market is hot right now, but if
you look at the used car dealership numbers, they're not
They're not as hot. It's Carvana that's hot. Why because again,
they're vertically integrated in the sense that they could buy
They bought the auction, they owned the they already owned
the car. Now they cut out all the fees when

(01:18:43):
you actually just go on the website and buy it.

Speaker 2 (01:18:45):
Now do you do? They deliver the cars.

Speaker 7 (01:18:47):
They deliver the cars straight through doors.

Speaker 2 (01:18:48):
That the only way you buy it is you go
online and buy it and they deliver it to your.

Speaker 3 (01:18:51):
Hard You could probably get it in person.

Speaker 2 (01:18:53):
They are like Phoenix.

Speaker 3 (01:18:55):
They have like Phoenix, they have the big they have
a huge warehouse and the bending machine thing. They have
a huge one there.

Speaker 2 (01:19:00):
But any machine thing still there? Yeah, right near your
old house right then?

Speaker 4 (01:19:04):
Yeah, so you can probably do it. But you see
more Carvana flatbeds running around.

Speaker 7 (01:19:08):
Ernie Garcia had a two soon. Good for him. Keep going.

Speaker 2 (01:19:11):
Yeah, you know, it's interesting because I don't see any carvans.
I saw one the other day and I was like, oh,
that's a Carvana the thing. I maybe have seen two
in my life. So it's not like they're all over town. Yeah.

Speaker 5 (01:19:22):
I mean, don't forget this company was on the edge
of bankruptcy.

Speaker 3 (01:19:27):
Four dollars yeah, like.

Speaker 4 (01:19:29):
What two dollars? Yeah, I mean maybe that's exaggerated a lot.
It went under ten dollars now three. Yeah, if it
went from three to fifty to four to three.

Speaker 6 (01:19:37):
And no matter what hell you want to look in
the world, I mean, this is a the butterfly's going
to affect everything, the butterfly flexed and a globally connected world.
I mean, how impact each company's going to feel from
these tariffs. I mean that's going to be dependent. Meta
for example, we thought they were going to be really impacted,
but right now, how much are they really going to

(01:19:59):
be other than TIMU. I mean it seems like people
who are buying their ads. How's that gonna change anything
too much? So, I mean I think it's gonna depend
on industries, It's gonna depend on models. We've already heard
that from a lot of CEOs. Some say that it's
not gonna have any impact.

Speaker 2 (01:20:15):
Lift.

Speaker 6 (01:20:16):
I thought was really interesting that they didn't see any
impact from the ground level, right.

Speaker 4 (01:20:21):
You know, you got these tech companies they're going into
like do you see what Google's doing because of this
huge AI boom, all the power that's gonna take, they're
gonna need to build electrical grids and all of.

Speaker 3 (01:20:30):
That in the nuclear and all.

Speaker 4 (01:20:31):
They're creating hundred thirty thousand jobs where they're gonna train
one hundred thousand electricians to work with the new grid
and build it and everything through the next few years
or however long.

Speaker 6 (01:20:40):
Another great thing that was happening was the Trump executive
orders that he's well, Trump's thinking about creating some executive
orders to help promote the production of nuclear plants and help,
you know, clear up all the red tape that has
been put out and really hurt that industry.

Speaker 7 (01:20:56):
One back real quick, why would autotear or why would
tariffs impact lift.

Speaker 5 (01:21:02):
From a consumer standpoint.

Speaker 2 (01:21:03):
It just from thinking about consumer.

Speaker 5 (01:21:06):
Confidence, amer standpoint. You literally have the lowest consumer confidence
in how long day? Twenty years?

Speaker 2 (01:21:11):
Yeah, twenty eleven. I think this is I.

Speaker 7 (01:21:13):
Thought you were framing under the sense of prices for them,
I get it.

Speaker 2 (01:21:16):
I think just not wanting to spend Yeah, well, walkers
to take a lift on the strike to get a
lift right. The uh. The one company that that is
not being bothered by the tariffs is Dutch Brothers or
Dutch Bros. I keep wanting to say Dutch Brothers. It's
not Dutch Brothers, it's Dutch Bros. Up fifteen percent this year,

(01:21:38):
so it'step been doing well. Jumped another seven percent on Thursday.
They reported a solid quarter and solid guidance. I'm thinking
their coffee has to be imported, isn't it.

Speaker 7 (01:21:50):
What do you think about Starbucks now? I mean that
stuck's been getting hammered, just hammered down eighty dollars a share,
down twelve percent, down twelve percent.

Speaker 3 (01:21:58):
You're to date.

Speaker 2 (01:21:58):
I saw an interesting thing last week where the CEO
of Panera came out and said that Nichols is on
the right path with Starbucks. He's doing everything right, be patient.
I thought that was interesting.

Speaker 4 (01:22:12):
I saw the first commercial for Starbucks where it was saying, hey,
come have a cup and you have it in the
house in are you hanging out?

Speaker 3 (01:22:19):
You'll get a free refill.

Speaker 4 (01:22:21):
They talked about that right when he got hired, and
then they finally were implementing it. So it'll be interesting
to see if that will increase traffic because they were
going towards the Dutch Bros. Model, whereas in and outs
you don't even have an inside, and now Nichols is
bringing it back to what it was before, kind of
doing the nosalgic version of Starbucks.

Speaker 3 (01:22:37):
So see if it works.

Speaker 7 (01:22:38):
I mean, do you think China has anything to do
with it?

Speaker 2 (01:22:39):
Absolute?

Speaker 7 (01:22:42):
I want to refrain from just blaming it all in
China with Starbucks all the time, like it seems like
again going back to the GLP one conversation, I was
reading a report that people are ordering smaller sizes now.
People are ordering less through their rewards points. That's how
they track it.

Speaker 4 (01:22:58):
Well, I will say too, Starbucks is like got him
big to the point where the coffee is knowingly worse
than local and people have found a note Like I
don't know if it's just subjective, like what I've just seen,
people want local coffee more than Starbucks.

Speaker 3 (01:23:11):
It's also convenience.

Speaker 2 (01:23:12):
I think.

Speaker 6 (01:23:12):
I think there's something about food though, like we've had
an awakening as just a American populace. We don't want
to eat the same bad foods because we've kind of
been understanding of like how bad that is? The RFK effect,
right of sugar is bad for you? All these things
that the weird red forties and you don't even know

(01:23:33):
how to pronounce the ingredients when you look at the list.
All that stuff is starting to make people say, maybe
I'm not going to have the Hershey bar and have
the organic chocolate bar. That makes me feel better. Might
not even be better for but it makes me feel better.

Speaker 2 (01:23:48):
The other thing is bad for you, Gordon elp One.
So then we'll be back with the last segment of
The Moneymatic Shore right after this break.

Speaker 5 (01:23:58):
Welcome back to the Money Matter Show. Name is Todd Click.

Speaker 6 (01:24:00):
I'm here with David Sherwood, Sebastian Borsini, Dean Greenberg.

Speaker 5 (01:24:05):
And Dylan Greenberg.

Speaker 6 (01:24:06):
All we would like to do because it is Sunday
and it is Mother's Day. Is mother Happy Mother's Day.
It's all the mother's out there. We appreciate you. They
have the hardest role in the entire universe because without you,
none of us would be here.

Speaker 2 (01:24:20):
Yeah, if man had babies, none of us would be here.

Speaker 5 (01:24:25):
I don't think.

Speaker 2 (01:24:25):
Yeah, I was leaving church one one Mother's Day and
guy with a good sense of humor walked out and
I said, oh, Mike, I hope you have a good
Mother's Day, and he goes, we better. There you go.
The pressure is on, right, Jean.

Speaker 5 (01:24:41):
It's like what day does the land?

Speaker 3 (01:24:43):
You know?

Speaker 1 (01:24:43):
Mother's Day's h is probably the best holiday out there
if you think about it, veteran Thanksgiving. It's because it's
the one day that you're giving back to the person that.

Speaker 2 (01:24:55):
Gave you everything. Okay, okay, Mother's Day?

Speaker 1 (01:24:59):
You know, we do you know a game? I mean
used to go to the you know, baseball game with
my father's and stuff like that. Mom, you're always doing
something nice. Yeah, this flowers involved.

Speaker 2 (01:25:12):
You're gonna spend money. You're gonna spend money money.

Speaker 1 (01:25:14):
There's a brunch involved, which used to be twelve dollars
that was what one hundred dollars? Yeah, for the same
damn food. But I mean think about it. Moms are
the ones that that kind of shape us for the
most part, the the ones when you're not feeling good,
when you're down, when you're there that they you know,
well this's my experience. Anyway, they cut they they're there

(01:25:35):
for you. My mom was a nurse for forty years.
She was always there for me, you know.

Speaker 2 (01:25:40):
So you're very You're very uh what's the word. I
want to say, You're very fortunate in that you had
a mother who was extraordinary. And I'm not saying my
mother wasn't, but I have I don't know that I've
ever met a woman that had the compassion and the

(01:26:03):
just the level head that your mother had.

Speaker 1 (01:26:06):
Just she was there to help everyone. Yeah, that's why
it was good she was. I remember growing up, my
friends would come over the house. I would go to sleep,
like twelve one. She would stay up to two three
in the morning, talking to them about things their parents
wouldn't talk about, things that you know, you talk about
as a teenage boy. So it's kind of it was
kind of good. Now.

Speaker 2 (01:26:25):
She was a very special lady.

Speaker 1 (01:26:27):
And I know my as a grandmother, my kids loved.

Speaker 3 (01:26:30):
She was a great grandma. Was the one thing you
remember of us going to double Features.

Speaker 4 (01:26:38):
Yeah, her own candy like Zi blocked bags and we
go sit at the movies for nine hours.

Speaker 3 (01:26:41):
It's amazing. And then playing games too while Grandpa watched
the TV.

Speaker 2 (01:26:45):
Thing I'll never forget about my mother is that when
I was in college, the first first year my dad
said he would pay for half if I would pay
for half. And it didn't work out well for me academically,
and I dropped out to become a plumber. Fortunately, I
won South Dakota Winter as a plumber, and I was

(01:27:07):
back in college and finished up byself. But I had
pretty much at that point bendswing by my father. My
mother would take ten dollars out of the grocery budget
that he would give her and send it to me
in college, so because she knew I had nothing. I'll
always remember that my.

Speaker 4 (01:27:21):
Mom is super sweet, and she's a very small lady,
and she's always I mean, she's always very nice and
everything like that. And like I was, I was a kid.
I think I was like seventeen, and I was kind
of I was acting up, and I remember saying something
like I didn't know she was there.

Speaker 3 (01:27:36):
I thought of something else, and she yelled.

Speaker 4 (01:27:38):
I was like, I got him, mom, and she I
yelled and she just stares at me, and all of
a sudden, this little lady just became huge and she
threw a chair at me, like on the ground in
front of me.

Speaker 3 (01:27:46):
She didn't throw it at me, but she threw a chair.
I was like night.

Speaker 4 (01:27:49):
For one, I didn't know you could pick it off,
and two I didn't know you could get this Matt
and I. From there, I was like, all right, so
this little like nice sweet lady has a big fire
behind her. Yeah, I was like, I never want to
see this again. I messed up.

Speaker 2 (01:28:02):
Yeah I do, I ever want to see this again?

Speaker 3 (01:28:03):
Right?

Speaker 1 (01:28:04):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (01:28:04):
But overall, yeah, I know. Me and my mom have
a great relation.

Speaker 2 (01:28:06):
I have a daughter, I have a daughter with two
grand two and I have two grandkids. And my daughter is,
in my mind, an extraordinary young woman, and she would
not be that without my wife. So I thank her
for that. That's good stuff.

Speaker 5 (01:28:24):
My mom's an incredible person.

Speaker 6 (01:28:26):
I mean, she works harder than anyone I know right now,
and I'm very proud to call her my mom, my nana.

Speaker 5 (01:28:33):
I'm just super proud of both of them.

Speaker 6 (01:28:34):
Came and supported me in Boston, been supporting me on
all my marathons throughout the country. It's been really cool
to be able to share those experiences with them and
have them their support throughout all of it.

Speaker 2 (01:28:46):
How about Seabath, you got something say about your mom?

Speaker 7 (01:28:49):
I do for the us, for you guys that don't
know My parents are immigrants from Mexico and my dad
passed away when I was younger. My mom had the
opportunity to go back home in Mexico. I would not
be in this position at Greenbrik Financial or doing what
I'm doing without her doing that.

Speaker 2 (01:29:06):
Yeah, so she stayed and the rest is history. Right.
So we wish all the mothers out there happy Mother's Day,
and it better be right.

Speaker 1 (01:29:16):
And the next time, you know, I think that your mom,
you know, you're pissed off of your mom or do stuff.
It's like, you know, I think twice, Okay, because at
the end of the day, ninety percent of moms are
fantastic and great and they're there and they support you.
And I see that in the coaching that Dylan and
I do it down to Tucson, Hi. The well, the

(01:29:38):
dads are supportive, but the bombs are the supportive once. Yeah,
you know what I mean.

Speaker 4 (01:29:42):
The moms are always the more just They're there no
matter what, right, Yeah, and the ulterior motive or anything.

Speaker 1 (01:29:48):
And then a lot of the broker marriage is they're
well with the moms.

Speaker 3 (01:29:52):
All the kids, Yeah, all the kids we've seen, they
were with the moms, right.

Speaker 1 (01:29:55):
The huggy Mom. Tell her you love it because when
they're not here anymore, you have as your memories.

Speaker 2 (01:30:01):
Yeah, that's so, that's where the stability is. The stability
is with mom and so.

Speaker 1 (01:30:06):
And I remember she made sacrifice too. She wanted to
be with us when we were growing up, when we
got before we left the school, and when we came
home after his sports and so she worked a night
shift as a nurse. They changed it so she would
go in at eleven and be home at seven. Wow okay,
And so she had breakfast for us, and she took
her nap and slept. And when we didn't have sports,
when we were home at three thirty something, we were

(01:30:27):
there with sports. Sometimes we saw it, sometimes we didn't
see her, you know, but she always wanted to be
there for us.

Speaker 2 (01:30:32):
Let's talk about the market. Where were we going? Where
we're going?

Speaker 1 (01:30:35):
Do you think we're up at resistance? I think we
can squeeze a little higher, only because we haven't completed
any tariff deals other than you know, UK a little bit.
The China ones, the big one India is a big one,
and then as the small ones, it's no big deal.
I think when the I don't I think we can
go back and forth a little bit, but not really far.

(01:30:56):
But as soon as we have that China deal more complete,
and it's gonna be in stages, so it's gonna take
some time. I think that you know, if we go
up to fifty eight hundred, them all, you got to
sell into that because right now, the earnings aren't there, Dave,
and it's gonna cost more. And if we're gonna change
things over there, it's gonna be terrorists and people are
gonna slow down. We're gonna have that recession that we've
looked for for three years now.

Speaker 2 (01:31:17):
Yeah, then we might actually be in it right now.

Speaker 1 (01:31:19):
Yeah, markets go up and down, sessions go up and down,
we live through them all. What we're hoping for is
that whatever happens is short lived, like this last move down,
and then it comes back and then we're off to
the races. Once this kid's done and we can look
at it and say we're not in debt, we can
move forward. The markets are going to take off.

Speaker 2 (01:31:40):
I agree.

Speaker 1 (01:31:41):
They got to get this tax plan done. That's gonna
be see. So I think, so what happens is it
goes up with these deals, goes down with the idea
that we can't get a tax thing done. They finally
get a tax thing done late this year early next year,
and next thing you know, the markets take off for
the next two three years. The first year of the
president sees a second year and third year of the

(01:32:02):
best years.

Speaker 2 (01:32:03):
And we talked while you were this last segment about
the way to do this is through insurance. So the
one time, two times, three times, or even four times,
the S and P five hundred to the downside.

Speaker 1 (01:32:15):
I don't think there's four to the downside. I haven't
seen that yet. No, well, I haven't seen to the upside.

Speaker 2 (01:32:21):
Well, there's to be an opposite to the SPYU is.

Speaker 1 (01:32:24):
Right, But do you have to trade though the multiple ones,
the leverage ones.

Speaker 2 (01:32:27):
You have to trade, the more leverage, the more difficult.

Speaker 1 (01:32:30):
Two times I'm okay with uh, it's not there. But
the three and four times you have to trade them.
And when you get the big hit you have to
do it. Same thing with options. If your buying puts
to protect yourself, you have to know you get that
big move down of five to seven eight percent, take
the damn profit full disculosure.

Speaker 2 (01:32:48):
When when you say the market's are maybe going to
get up to fifty eight hundred, and I agree with
you one hundred percent. I think that would be a
place where you'd want to you said, take them off
the table. What we're going to do is add someds, right, that's.

Speaker 4 (01:33:01):
Part because of that, And I mean we always talk
about us being active traders and active investors is what
we do. We bought we bought SPY and QQQ so
the NAZEC and S and P five hundred back in
the beginning of April when the markets were down. We
saw this run up through April. We took a profit
on those shares that we bought, we sold them, and
now we have more cash and now we're waiting to

(01:33:23):
buy back into the SDS if it hits over fifty
eight hundred like we talked about last week, or if
it goes back. If it never hits and it goes
back under fifty four hundred, we'll look to buy more SPY.
But we're active in the sense that we did take
a game. We didn't take all of it off the table,
but we take the game from what we saw because
you can't not especially in the market environment right now.

Speaker 3 (01:33:40):
This volatility allows for trading.

Speaker 2 (01:33:43):
As I Genis mentioned many times on the show that
a lot of money managers will say it's gonna be okay,
just hanging in there at all, gonna it's all gonna
work yourself. That's not us.

Speaker 4 (01:33:52):
Well, in like in a sense, if we didn't touch anything, yeah,
from March to May first, it would have been the
same sort of but we still during that month of
April we made money.

Speaker 6 (01:34:00):
And the smart move that you did as well, though,
we take the gain that you have in that short
term and then put in the structured ETF Yeah, and
that way, if it does go down, you're gonna be
protected over the next year, but if it goes up,
you still can participate.

Speaker 4 (01:34:13):
Yeah, And in that point, the structured ets that I
was buying into last week was the ones with one
hundred percent downside protection, so then you got the protection.
But then you do participate with the Russell two thousand
small Gap or the S and P five hundred or
the NASDAC. They're great products that came out of a
year ago. They've been doing what they've.

Speaker 1 (01:34:31):
Right, and the clarsification is important. Everything has some risks.
You always have done the stand of risk, but that's
what we do. We diversify, we allocate, we do you know,
and we look at what happens and we get through
these things. I mean, Dave, you and I have been
through eighty seven. Yep, We've been through the nineties. Yeah,
we through two thousand and one, two thousand and eight
to twenty eighteen, twenty twenty, twenty twenty two, and we're

(01:34:53):
still standing.

Speaker 2 (01:34:54):
And it went not a punching bag in April twenty
twenty five.

Speaker 1 (01:34:58):
That was a simple one that wasn't bad. All right, everybody,
I hope you have a great Mother's Day. Hug your mom,
tell her you love her, and she's not you can
tell her in heaven that she's one of the greatest
people that you ever knew. We'll be back next week
where your money matters. We want everyone to be happy,
We want everyone to be healthy, and at the end

(01:35:20):
of the day, what are we striving for to be
prob

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