April 8, 2025 • 8 mins
The knee jerk reaction would be to tie this bear market to the infamous Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930 during the Great Depression because that was all about tariffs too.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Brian Musho podcast is driven by Brayman Motor Cars.
My family is a Brayman Motor Cars family. Your family
should be to visit Braymanmotorcars dot com. Have a question
or topic you want to have addressed, just ask. This
is the Brian Mudshow. Today's que and ay how long
(00:24):
do bear markets last? And Hello do stocks go? He's
finding a bottom now, but look, here's the thing. It's
going to shift over and it's going to be companies
in the S and B five hundred who are the
first to produce here. Those are the ones going to
lead to recovery. Senior Trump Administration trade official Peter Navarro,
(00:46):
many people say that the tarots are actually his brain
shall that he's the one that is pushing this the
hardest within the Trump administration. And as we take a
look at hear him saying, hey, you know what, we're
finding the bottom right now. But it's going to be
of the companies, the companies that are investing in this country,
that are making stuff here, that are going to lead
the recovery. So about all this, My Q and I
(01:12):
is always brought to you by Listen Ashes, check Mark
Collections and each day a feature listener questions sent by
one of these methods, You may email me Brian Mud
at iHeartMedia dot com, hit me up on social apps.
Brian Mud Radio may also use the iHeartRadio talk back feature.
Just go to WJNO or via Patriot inside of the
iHeartRadio app and deliver a little microphone button you see
(01:36):
that you tap it, you may lay down a message
right there. Share your thoughts with us about what's going
on or any top or question that you would like
for me to address in a future QNA would love
to hear from you. And by the way, also it'd
be great if you min us your number one preset
mate the Brian Mudshow podcast my podcast number two preset.
(01:56):
That way you can always listen for free on demand
no matter where you go. Today's note this Brian, thank
you for being a voice of reason amid the market panic.
A question for you is this how long do bear
markets usually last? And is there anything you can compare
this one to last question? In particular? Is interesting? Did
get me thinking with that? So the bullmarket has gone
(02:19):
bear is out of hibernation? Is this going to be
more like a groundhog kind of you know situation? Though?
With the groundhogs, like, yeah, short, short winter, I'm not
going to see I'm going to see my Which way
is it I see my shadow? Anyway? Yeah, I don't remember. Yeah,
I've lost that again, good old Phil. Anyway, the bear
(02:41):
version of this, but for how long by the end
of the week last week, Yeah, the Nazac and Russell
that we're in bear markets territory. And during Mondays while
ride you ended up having the S and P five
hundred also touched the bear that declined up twin ten
percent or more from its highs now. As I mentioned yesterday,
(03:04):
it might takeaways. Every bear market in American history has
been what, it's been scary, It's been oh my gosh,
this guy is fine. It's been a historically great buying opportunity.
There are not many absolutes when it comes to investing,
when it comes to money, just an absolute in American history,
(03:27):
every single bear market in American history has been a
historically great time to be investing. If I can impart
nothing else during the course of this week, let that
print and stick with you, because unless this time really
is different, unless this really is the time that this
country is going down the drain, and that we never
(03:51):
make it back. This will be yet another historically great
buying opportunity. Somewhere down the line. You'll look back and
go wow. So if you're thinking of buying, history does
suggest that you don't necessarily need to be in a
hurry to do so, but that you also shouldn't just
(04:13):
sit on your hands either, because they can come to
an end rather quickly, as we saw what the bear
market that hit during the pandemic. Over the past one
hundred years, the SMP has experienced fourteen bear markets, so
an average we'll have one about every seven years, although
this marks the third one in a little over five years,
which is kind of extraordinary. That also has to do
(04:36):
with the pandemic. But here's the breakdown of the five
that we have had this century, this current one we're in.
Here's probably the first thing that's interesting for you think about,
do you know when this started? This didn't start last week.
It started February nineteenth. That was the absolute peak of
the market in this cycle so far, February nineteenth, So
we're actually closing in on being close to two months
(04:58):
into this bear market. The context of course, President Trump's
tariff policies, the one preceding this took place from January
to October of twenty twenty two. Biden inflation, all the
inflation right caused a twenty five percent decline top to
bottom in stocks duration nine months. All right, Before that
(05:22):
it was COVID. Yeah, the COVID crash, you want to
talk about the This was the shortest bear market in
American history. It started on February nineteenth, twenty twenty, ended
March twenty third, barely more than a month, a thirty
four percent decline during that time, and then boom right back.
(05:42):
So again about making mistakes and selling at the lows
and freaking out at the lows, and then you know,
missing out on opportunities in the process. Before that you
had the Great Recession. The bear market lasted from October
two thousand and seven through March of twan nine to
fifty seven percent declining top to bottom, So that one
(06:03):
was longer than these other ones. More recently, of course,
the housing market collapse, sub Primorgus crisis, all the things
related to it, and then the other one this century,
the dot com bubble burst team started in March two
thousand ended October two thousand and two. So this was
the longest one of thirty months, the declining top to
(06:24):
bottom forty nine percent. Okay, so with this mix, we've
had a little bit of everything, with losses as shallow
as twenty five percent and as large as fifty seven percent.
They've lasted for as little as about a month for
up to two and a half years, so bear markets
have brought a little bit of everything. If you played
the recent averages, bear markets have lasted for fourteen months
(06:47):
with an average decline of forty one percent. So, in
other words, if the average scenario played out, would actually
only be about halfway to the bottom of the bear
market at this point, and we would not exit the
bear market until next April. That takes us to the
second question asked today about whether there's anything we can
compare this to. You know, the knee jerk reaction by
some is to try to tie this bear market to
(07:07):
the infamous Smoot Holly Act of nineteen thirty during Great Depression,
because that was all about tariff's too. The difference is
that the economy was already a disaster when it passed.
We're already into the depression when they passed that the
policy it was also a law as opposed to an
executive order that Trump could just change at any time.
And it's on that note that we don't have a
(07:28):
comp for this, But if I had to pick, I
would say this one is most similar to the pandemic.
You know, every bear market has a catalyst, However, most
are macro economic related. This one is not. It really
is self inflicted in the sense that Trump is trying
to rearrange the way that trade is done to more
advantage the United States in it. So the pandemic bear
market the shortest lid ever, that also was not macro
(07:51):
economic related. It was an executive action. Is shut things
down right, and then when some of the stupid policies
stopped being as dumb, then things got better rather quick.
So this could be a different version of a similar
thing where trade deals work out and the US is
actually in better shape coming out the other end of
it than going in, which means things could be sharp
on a reversal if they were to resolve that way,
(08:14):
or it could get worse. You know, you could have
the trade war escalade and things could get worse recession.
All that that is the view of the possible, which
is why I gave you the averages and answer to
your question, but for now, that is what we know,
using history as a guide.
The Brian Musho podcast is driven by Brayman Motor Cars.
My family is a Brayman Motor Cars family. Your family
should be to visit Braymanmotorcars dot com. Have a question
or topic you want to have addressed, just ask. This
is the Brian Mudshow. Today's que and ay how long
(00:24):
do bear markets last? And Hello do stocks go? He's
finding a bottom now, but look, here's the thing. It's
going to shift over and it's going to be companies
in the S and B five hundred who are the
first to produce here. Those are the ones going to
lead to recovery. Senior Trump Administration trade official Peter Navarro,
(00:46):
many people say that the tarots are actually his brain
shall that he's the one that is pushing this the
hardest within the Trump administration. And as we take a
look at hear him saying, hey, you know what, we're
finding the bottom right now. But it's going to be
of the companies, the companies that are investing in this country,
that are making stuff here, that are going to lead
the recovery. So about all this, My Q and I
(01:12):
is always brought to you by Listen Ashes, check Mark
Collections and each day a feature listener questions sent by
one of these methods, You may email me Brian Mud
at iHeartMedia dot com, hit me up on social apps.
Brian Mud Radio may also use the iHeartRadio talk back feature.
Just go to WJNO or via Patriot inside of the
iHeartRadio app and deliver a little microphone button you see
(01:36):
that you tap it, you may lay down a message
right there. Share your thoughts with us about what's going
on or any top or question that you would like
for me to address in a future QNA would love
to hear from you. And by the way, also it'd
be great if you min us your number one preset
mate the Brian Mudshow podcast my podcast number two preset.
(01:56):
That way you can always listen for free on demand
no matter where you go. Today's note this Brian, thank
you for being a voice of reason amid the market panic.
A question for you is this how long do bear
markets usually last? And is there anything you can compare
this one to last question? In particular? Is interesting? Did
get me thinking with that? So the bullmarket has gone
(02:19):
bear is out of hibernation? Is this going to be
more like a groundhog kind of you know situation? Though?
With the groundhogs, like, yeah, short, short winter, I'm not
going to see I'm going to see my Which way
is it I see my shadow? Anyway? Yeah, I don't remember. Yeah,
I've lost that again, good old Phil. Anyway, the bear
(02:41):
version of this, but for how long by the end
of the week last week, Yeah, the Nazac and Russell
that we're in bear markets territory. And during Mondays while
ride you ended up having the S and P five
hundred also touched the bear that declined up twin ten
percent or more from its highs now. As I mentioned yesterday,
(03:04):
it might takeaways. Every bear market in American history has
been what, it's been scary, It's been oh my gosh,
this guy is fine. It's been a historically great buying opportunity.
There are not many absolutes when it comes to investing,
when it comes to money, just an absolute in American history,
(03:27):
every single bear market in American history has been a
historically great time to be investing. If I can impart
nothing else during the course of this week, let that
print and stick with you, because unless this time really
is different, unless this really is the time that this
country is going down the drain, and that we never
(03:51):
make it back. This will be yet another historically great
buying opportunity. Somewhere down the line. You'll look back and
go wow. So if you're thinking of buying, history does
suggest that you don't necessarily need to be in a
hurry to do so, but that you also shouldn't just
(04:13):
sit on your hands either, because they can come to
an end rather quickly, as we saw what the bear
market that hit during the pandemic. Over the past one
hundred years, the SMP has experienced fourteen bear markets, so
an average we'll have one about every seven years, although
this marks the third one in a little over five years,
which is kind of extraordinary. That also has to do
(04:36):
with the pandemic. But here's the breakdown of the five
that we have had this century, this current one we're in.
Here's probably the first thing that's interesting for you think about,
do you know when this started? This didn't start last week.
It started February nineteenth. That was the absolute peak of
the market in this cycle so far, February nineteenth, So
we're actually closing in on being close to two months
(04:58):
into this bear market. The context of course, President Trump's
tariff policies, the one preceding this took place from January
to October of twenty twenty two. Biden inflation, all the
inflation right caused a twenty five percent decline top to
bottom in stocks duration nine months. All right, Before that
(05:22):
it was COVID. Yeah, the COVID crash, you want to
talk about the This was the shortest bear market in
American history. It started on February nineteenth, twenty twenty, ended
March twenty third, barely more than a month, a thirty
four percent decline during that time, and then boom right back.
(05:42):
So again about making mistakes and selling at the lows
and freaking out at the lows, and then you know,
missing out on opportunities in the process. Before that you
had the Great Recession. The bear market lasted from October
two thousand and seven through March of twan nine to
fifty seven percent declining top to bottom, So that one
(06:03):
was longer than these other ones. More recently, of course,
the housing market collapse, sub Primorgus crisis, all the things
related to it, and then the other one this century,
the dot com bubble burst team started in March two
thousand ended October two thousand and two. So this was
the longest one of thirty months, the declining top to
(06:24):
bottom forty nine percent. Okay, so with this mix, we've
had a little bit of everything, with losses as shallow
as twenty five percent and as large as fifty seven percent.
They've lasted for as little as about a month for
up to two and a half years, so bear markets
have brought a little bit of everything. If you played
the recent averages, bear markets have lasted for fourteen months
(06:47):
with an average decline of forty one percent. So, in
other words, if the average scenario played out, would actually
only be about halfway to the bottom of the bear
market at this point, and we would not exit the
bear market until next April. That takes us to the
second question asked today about whether there's anything we can
compare this to. You know, the knee jerk reaction by
some is to try to tie this bear market to
(07:07):
the infamous Smoot Holly Act of nineteen thirty during Great Depression,
because that was all about tariff's too. The difference is
that the economy was already a disaster when it passed.
We're already into the depression when they passed that the
policy it was also a law as opposed to an
executive order that Trump could just change at any time.
And it's on that note that we don't have a
(07:28):
comp for this, But if I had to pick, I
would say this one is most similar to the pandemic.
You know, every bear market has a catalyst, However, most
are macro economic related. This one is not. It really
is self inflicted in the sense that Trump is trying
to rearrange the way that trade is done to more
advantage the United States in it. So the pandemic bear
market the shortest lid ever, that also was not macro
(07:51):
economic related. It was an executive action. Is shut things
down right, and then when some of the stupid policies
stopped being as dumb, then things got better rather quick.
So this could be a different version of a similar
thing where trade deals work out and the US is
actually in better shape coming out the other end of
it than going in, which means things could be sharp
on a reversal if they were to resolve that way,
(08:14):
or it could get worse. You know, you could have
the trade war escalade and things could get worse recession.
All that that is the view of the possible, which
is why I gave you the averages and answer to
your question, but for now, that is what we know,
using history as a guide.
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