What’s At Stake with Florida’s Special Elections Today

You wouldn’t expect two seats won by Republicans last November by over 30-points each would be particularly competitive, let alone at risk, but Democrats have thrown money into the state attempting to make it that way.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:04):
The news you need to start your day, and the
balm beaches at the Treasure Coast. This is the Brian
Mud Show. If we take a look at what's that
stake with Florida's special elections.

Speaker 2 (00:16):
Today, Republicans are going to hold both of those seats
in Florida. It's going to be a hold, and we're
going to continue to the work that we're doing in
Congress to work on the president's agenda.

Speaker 1 (00:28):
That is R and C Chair Michael Wattley. And as
I'm inclined to say, every election has consequences. It's often
those closest to you that have the biggest impact on
our daily lives, and that's why it's weird. For example,
the nearly eighty percent of eligible voters turn out for
a presidential election. However, fewer than twenty percent commonly vote
in local only elections. Now, special congressional elections often different

(00:52):
versions of a similar thing. They're all about turnout and
are often decided baseball what political party does a better
job kind of like nudging their voter off of the
coutu or whatever to get out and voting. That's very
much the case again today with two special elections set
to take place in Florida, however, this time with outsize stakes.
Now often special elections for House races are as much

(01:13):
about candidates jockeying for position in future elections as it
is about the political implications of what happens with the race.
First and foremost, Historically, what percentage of House seats actually
flip parties when they come up in specials, Well, it's
just sixteen percent historically, just sixteen percent. So no matter
what happens today, that's going to remain the case. Republicans

(01:37):
will still control the House, although Democrats have been hopeful
about narrowing the gap. Heading into today, the current makeup
of the House of Representatives is two hundred and eighteen
Republicans to two hundred and thirteen Democrats. The five vote
lead for Republicans is the result of Fordigans Matt Gates
and Mike Waltz resigning from Congress, but also due to

(01:58):
the debts of Democrats, two deaths of Democrats that have
happened within the past month, and so the sudden death
of two members to Congress. It serves as a reminder
of how quickly things can change in unexpected ways when
you have really close margins and Florida's first district. Florida's
Republicans CFO Jimmy Petronas faces Democrat challenger Gay Belmont in

(02:19):
a seat that gates one over Gay by thirty two
percent last November and Florida sixth this district race, it's
the one that's attracted the most attention and the most money.
Democrat Joshua Whale is battling former Florida State Senator Randy
Fine and raised one by Waltz by an even larger
thirty three percent just last fall. So yeah, you want

(02:39):
to expect two seats, one by Republicans last November by
over thirty points, to be particularly competitive, let alone at risk.
But Democrats have outspent Republicans in these two districts by
five to one, just over fifteen million dollars spent by
Democrats to three million four Republicans. Why well, if if

(03:00):
they can end up by a minor miracle, flipped these
seats and they were able to win future special elections
to fill the two vacancies by the members who recently died,
they would just be a seat or two away from
being able to take control. Even during the course of
this session, and again as the debts kind of paint
the picture of you never know what can happen