As Rockets stack wins, is Houston becoming a surprise contender?

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Cheers.

Speaker 2 (00:02):
Rockets fans, Welcome to the lagger Line, an exclusive podcast
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(00:23):
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Speaker 1 (00:39):
Ben Dubo's here, Polo Alves there, thanks for tuning in
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You can follow me on Twitter, slash x at Bendubo's
and Polo at Palo Alves NBA. You can also follow
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(01:01):
As we talk this Tuesday, December third, it has been
nothing short of an incredible week for the Rockets. They
were three and zero since we last recorded, beating the
Timberwolves and seventy six ers on the road the Thunder
at home. They're now fifteen and six on the year.
They are three and oh at NBA Cup Play, having
already clinched their group to advance to the NBA's knockout

(01:23):
quarterfinal round next week. They will almost certainly be hosting
that quarterfinal game in Houston next Tuesday or Wednesday night.
That's after the Rockets got that win in Minnesota. We
thought going into the year it was a fairly difficult
group with the Wolves, the Clippers, the Blazers, the Kings,
but the Rockets have run right through it. And this

(01:45):
game in Sacramento tonight is one that you know, the
Rockets probably need to win to be the number one
overall seed, and it would lock up a home game,
but in all likelihood they're going to have a home
game no matter what as one of the top two
seeds in the West. So they're in a great spot
already before even playing this road finale in Sacramento, a
team that they matched up well against a year ago,

(02:06):
three to zero against the Kings, including a big win
in March. So it's been an incredible week undefeated and
cup play fifteen and six overall, ten wins in their
last twelve. You had the statement victory at home over
Oklahoma City, the gold standard in the West. You look
at the respect the Rockets are getting around the league.
NBA dot COM's weekly Power rankings came out today. The

(02:26):
Rockets are at number three in the entire NBA, number
one in the West. Alprin Shongoon was named Western Conference
Player of the Week. So many amazing things happening for
the Rockets, and perhaps the most important of all, and
I've buried the lead by design. The Rockets broke the
Ted Cruz curse by beating the Thunder with Ted Cruz

(02:48):
court side. So, Paolo, before we get into war serious analysis,
how incredible is this on your list of Houston sports accomplishments,
that the Ted Cruz curse has been broken.

Speaker 3 (03:00):
First of all, when they said that he was in
the game, I was like, Man, it couldn't have been
the worst game, right, I mean, I guess both ways,
it could have couldn't be the better game because if
we were to lose one, losing to the Thunders, not
that it doesn't hurt them much, but then at the
same time, you really want to beat the Thunder. And
I think we can take all the credit because that

(03:20):
Bruce was at Astros games during the World Series runn
If I'm not mistaken that they won, I can I'm
not going to have checked that because that'd be some
really hard to fact check, but I'm pretty sure at
the time I was pretty locked into the Astros, so
we kept get we can't take all the credit, But
as far as Rockets are concerned, it does, you know,

(03:41):
as I'm really not a superstitious person, but for some reason,
this is the one thing that I believe because it
always goes poorly, it does make me more confident because
I know he's Unless there's another can Kun situation, I
don't think that's gonna be I think if the Rockets
are good, I think he's gonna be there. So they
got to learn to win with him there as well here,

(04:03):
and it seems like maybe they did.

Speaker 1 (04:06):
He's certainly been at a few wins. It's just he's
had a presence at the more high profile losses, most
notably Game seven and twenty eighteen against the Golden State Warriors.
And it became even more of a meme this year
because of the Astros falloff because of the recently completed election.
There was an online campaign to add calling out Ted
Cruz for being an attendance at many of these Texas

(04:27):
sports low lights. If you will, it's all in fun,
it's mostly injust but to see the Rockets get that
monkey off their back on top of everything else. Look,
it's a very small thing in the grand scheme, but
I do think it sort of ties into the fact
that this game against Oklahoma City felt like something of
a referendum because early in the year, we know the

(04:49):
Rockets they're fifteen and six, But all these six losses,
the only one where it felt like they were truly
outclassed was that game in Oklahoma City at the very
start of November. And I know the Thunder had Chet
Holmgren for that game. They didn't for this rematch. But
the Thunder are a really detained period with Shaegildos, Alexander
Jalen Williams, Isaiah Heartenstein, They've got so much depth up

(05:11):
and down that roster. They're well coached, and so I
don't believe that it takes anything away from the win
that Chet Holmgren and Alex Caruso weren't out there. If
it does, just a very very small amount. That's an
elite team, and they are the one team this year
that truly beat the Rockets handily, I think by twenty

(05:33):
or so points, and they were winning with ease from
the late second quarter onward in that game. So you
can look at all the other close losses and we've
agonized over them, the Blazers, the Spurs, the Hornets, and
what if that's the one where you couldn't And so
nearly a month later to play them in your gym
in early December, after having a few days off for Thanksgiving,

(05:57):
so the Rockets readle to get their bodies their minds right,
and it felt like going into that game, even though
the Rockets were playing well, there was a small part
of me that worried, are they ready for the bright lights?
And in some ways it sort of felt like the
game at the beginning of November when the Rockets, after
that loss to the Hornets, they had largely turned things around.

(06:19):
They had a feel good win in Dallas, they had
the winning record after five games, and they had the
Warriors coming into town, and we all thought going into
that game, Okay, this is when the Rockets are finally
going to beat the Warriors. They're going to get that
monkey off their back. And then they laid an egg.
Now the Rockets rescued what was a thirty point deficit
extra extending the game to overtime before eventually running out

(06:39):
of gas. But there was a small part of me
that worried going into Sunday Night's game, would this be
another moment where for a young team, you know, the
lights are a little too bright in sirt, Jared Allen
mean here at least to start the game. And then
you see Ted Cruz court sided. You can't help but think, hey,
is this going to be one of those games where

(07:01):
people around the league are watching? It was hyped up
all day. This was the first time in over twelve
years that the top two teams by record in both
the West and the East played on the same day.
This late in the year. The East had Cleveland against
Boston around the same time, so there were a lot
of eyeballs on this game. And I thought the way
not just the Rockets won the game, but they handled
the stage. You know, I joke about Ted Cruz, but

(07:22):
it was one of the better crowds at two Ter
Center that I've seen in a while. The stands had
a lot of energy to them. It was packed, and
so there was a lot of pressure on the Rockets
in that game, and I thought they rose to the occasion.
They led for long stretches of the game. It wasn't
like they just you know, stumbled into that victory on
the back of a couple of heroic fred VM Fleet
shots late. He did have a couple of those, but

(07:44):
the Rockets were competitive throughout that game, and I think
it speaks so well to, you know, the culture that
Emo Udoka has built. He talked to his interview with
Nasa Richardson about you know, seeing a lot of improvement
from the first ten games to the second ten six
and four to eight and two, and now they're starting
the third ten game stretch with a bang one to
zero and fifteen and six overall, and so there's so

(08:07):
much to like here, and even those wins last week,
I know the Rockets got something of a break in
Philadelphia with Dwell and Bee and Paul George not playing,
but look night two of a road back to back
when you arrive at three thirty am to your hotel
and you had to go overtime the night before to
find a way to get that game as well, and

(08:30):
Jalen Green, who we've his struggles have been well documented.
We talked about them on last week Spot. But to
give you forty one points, I know it was a
favorable matchup against a six Ers team that, without emb
didn't have much in the way of rim protection. But
on a night that so many of your regulars were
out of gas. After that field Gould win in Minnesota,
and just like the Box, I don't care what Minnesota's

(08:53):
record was going to that game. We know they are
a heavyweight. We know you know the Timberwolves and the
Thunder were seen going into the year as maybe the
two best teams in the Western Conference, right up there
with the Denver Nuggets, and perhaps the Rockets have already
forced their way into that tier as well. We'll talk
about that, I'm sure in this episode and others to
come this month, But the bottom line is this was
a difficult week for the Rockets. The Thunder was to

(09:14):
capper and so they rose to the occasion there. But
really it's the totality of the three games and never
letting their foot off the gas. They got it done
in Minnesota to clench the group, they found a way
led by Jalen Green, but a lot of tanks on
empty the next night to get it done in Philadelphia,
and then you finish a week with that type of
feel good win at home against the Thunder, getting the

(09:36):
fans in Houston to buy in. It's hard not to
feel really, really good about this basketball team right now
because they are checking off every box that you could
conceivably ask them to check as they moved their way
through this stretch. And for me, I said this on
Twitter last night, I'm done complaining about those Blazers, those

(10:00):
those Hornets games they let slip away, because as much
as some of those should have been schedule wins, these
were schedule losses at least two of the three. I
rode back to back in Minnesota and Philadelphia. Going the
end of the year, everybody has those as losses or
at least one of the two and then the thunder
coming into your house fairly rested. I know they had

(10:23):
played Friday night, but they didn't play Saturday. They didn't
have any back to back considerations. I know they didn't
have Cheed Holmgren, but they did have their big man
back along with SGA, along with Jalen So to come
through in all three of those games, to never have
a hiccup physically or mentally. It's just a new level

(10:44):
that they've reached. And there's a lot of storylines we
can point to the defense continues to be top two
in the league. It's fantastic. Dylan Brooks, Avan Thompson, Tarry
Eason Alprin shongon Western Conference Player of the Week. He's
a dominant low post scorer and playmaker. He continues to
improve defensively. But the guy that I think needs to

(11:05):
be singled out right off the top is Fred van
Fleet because these two wins, the gold Star wins i'll
call them against the Timberwolves and the Thunder against the
Tee Wolves. Fred went for twenty seven and eleven. Against
the Thunder, he went for a season high thirty eight points.
In both of those games. He had at least five

(11:26):
mad threes, including one or two down the stretch that
were massive. Against the Timberwolves. The Rockets were down two
or they were down five with two minutes left to play,
he hit the three that cut it to two. It
felt like that game was teutoring on the brink. The
Rockets had the big lead midway through the third quorder,
the Timberwolves spot back. It felt like they were just

(11:47):
one shot away from burying the Rockets, and when Fred
hit that three that made it a competitive game. The
Timberwolves never had a lead by more than a possession
from that point forward, including in overtime, and then we
know the two big shots he at the final three
minutes against the Thunder and so tip your hat to Fred.
That's what a veteran player, a leader, a guy on

(12:10):
a max contract is supposed to do. I know people
are on the NBA forget it, but he was an
All Star in twenty twenty two and for good reason.
He is legitimately a very very good player, even if
he's not a superstar. But beyond just giving Fred his
flowered individually for making some big shots, I think what
this does for me. It's proof of concept for what

(12:32):
rafel Stone and ima Udoka have been building and a
lot of what we've been discussing about how this team
can get to a truly contending level in the not
too distant future. We talk about needing a perimeter based
scorer to unlock some of the pressure on all perend
Shangoon and quite frankly, even if Shangoon does become Nikola Jokich,
we said it on last week's spot n Kohl, Jokich

(12:52):
has had Jamal Murray get him to the finish line
and so many big games over the years for the Nuggets,
including in their twenty three championship run. Well, who's going
to be that perimeter based scorer for the Rockets to
unlock defenses when it gets tight in half court settings
late in close games. The Rockets want it to be
Jalen Green. He's had flashes the Philadelphia side. I mean,

(13:13):
maybe that's the Philadelphia game. Maybe that's the start of something.
We can hope that's a promising sign. But time will
tell on that. It's going to take much more than
one or two good games for us to start buying
in on Jalen at that level again. And if it's
not Jalen, maybe one of the other young guys on
the roster takes a leap in terms of being, you know,
an offensive fulcrum type. We can hope for that type
of development. There's also the potential for external trades. Devin Booker,

(13:36):
Deer and Fox those are more pie in the sky
types at this point. There's also you know, more moderate
names you can look at in the bucket getter tier
that we've discussed in recent pods. But seeing what Fred
did in these two games against Minnesota and Oklahoma City,
I mean, first things first, you tipped your cap. But
beyond that, what it shows you is just how close

(13:57):
this Rockets team is to being legitimate contender, and perhaps
they're already there, because when you defend and rebound at
an elite level the way they do, when you take
care of the basketball the way they do, Oklahoma City's
calling card as a team, they forced an NBA leading
average turnover rate of more than nineteen per game. On average,

(14:19):
the Rockets had just ten against them, with all parin
Shangoon and Fred van Fleet having just won each in
thirty five plus minutes. So when you defend, you rebound,
you take care of the ball at an elite level,
you have a chance against anybody, even a team like
the Timberwolves of the Thunder playing very very well on
a given night, and the Rockets found a way to

(14:40):
execute late. That was another thing we talked about November.
Can the Rockets close out close games against good teams?
Well they did it three straight times and two of
the three against good teams, and they did it largely
on the back of fredvan Fleet, who made those big
shots down the stretch. So again in the micro you
tip your hat to Fred. He's a proven winner, He's
a very very good player who think sometimes on social

(15:01):
media doesn't get the respect that he's due because this
game isn't super flashy, and you know, if you squint
hard enough, you can make the case that, hey, maybe
if the Rockets get to the playoffs, and hopefully at
this point, it's more win than if then there's no
back to backs, and both of these games against the
Timberwolves and the thunder Rockets had two or three days
off before, so just like in the playoffs, maybe if

(15:21):
you have a more rested Fred due to not having
back to backs, maybe if you could manage his minutes
a little more tightly so he's playing in the load
of mid thirties instead of the upper thirties, then maybe
that can help unlock this version. But I think that's
you know, probably squating a little bit too hard. At
this point. Fred does have some limitations. He can give
you that version of himself in some games, but he's

(15:41):
probably not going to do it two out of three
for the remainder of the season the way he did
it two out of three over the past week. So
that's where you either need some of your other guys,
most notably Jalen Green, to fill in that gap, or
perhaps down the road you need to address it by
bringing in someone externally through a trade or a free
agency signing, something along those lines. But what I think

(16:02):
this week shows you above all else is that if
the Rockets have that type of player who can just
go out and make some tough shots late in close games,
you pair that with the defense, with the rebounding, with
the coaching, with the system, with everything else that we've
been talking about that's gone white for the team over
the first six weeks of the season, then they're right

(16:24):
there already. They are good enough to beat the Timberwolves
at Target Center. They are good enough to beat the
Thunder even with SGA going off for the first three
quarters and a very unfriendly whistle from Ben Taylor. When
the Rockets get that type of perimeter based closer and
I'm not saying Fred's going to do it the rest
of the year. He'll do it on occasion and the
Rockets will be really good in those games. But even

(16:46):
if it's somebody else, or if they have to just
make a trade externally to bring that in closer to
January or February, the point is when you pair the
stuff the Rockets were ing on a nightly basis. With
that type of late game shot making, they are already
at a contending level. And so I think for me,
it's just proof of concept that the Rockets aren't that

(17:08):
far away and if you can fill that hole of
a tough shot maker on the perimeter late in close games,
they can compete with anybody.

Speaker 3 (17:16):
Right, it's getting suffer and toffer to remain to be
rational about it, I'll say because really, over the past
few years, namely with Taylor Ritten, but with some other
guys as well, we've seen like guys look like there's
a can leap and then regress. Last season, we looked
like one of the best teams in the league for

(17:37):
the beginning of the season, and then we regressed.

Speaker 1 (17:40):
And it's you.

Speaker 3 (17:40):
Know, it's hard to see how because teams like the
current Rockets, I just don't quite remember anything like it.
A team that just completely relies on defense. That is
this bor offensively or this Spore. I'm not not really
this Spoor, but more from from the from the standpoint

(18:01):
of having a go to guy because open and he
is that goal to Gevi because he's been struggling lately.
I mean, he's been he's picked it up in the
second halfs of games. But I think everybody can agree
that this is not, you know, as good as Opera
can be, or even as good as he was last
year offensively, and I just it's it's kind of in

(18:23):
a moment of self reflection. I guess it's kind of
reshaping the way I look at basketball. And you know,
you made a lot of good points about I guess
before I go with that, it may it may have
got a lot of good points about, you know, the
day's day operations and how everything's going. And I really
do and I agree with the one that has just
made it that Fredavely showed us a glimpse of what
it could look like if we had a reliable, primed

(18:45):
creator And we were talking about this before the pod,
and then I'm going to read traded here, which is
I do agree, but I don't think. I don't even
think defenses are respecting for Evan Vleet as that type
of scorer, which means that he's making those tough shots, right,
he's having the impact on the score, but it's not
having the impact on the players around them, making the
game easier for them, because you're not being respected as

(19:08):
a type of player that he has played like the
last three games, which means that if you made a
fit for a guy like that, you get the results
of someone reliably being that, and you will also open
up space for everybody else. You know, And I'm not
gonna say you're that you disagree with that. I'm just,
you know, kind of comfounding on on what you said.

Speaker 1 (19:25):
Well, I think, just to quickly jump in, I think
it goes back to one of the points we talked about.
And I forget if it was last week's pot or
the one before that, but that you have even more
options in terms of the trade market. If this doesn't
resolve itself through internal growth, then you might think, I mean,
in a perfect role, if you get a superstar like
a Devin Booker or a Tiarn Fox and you know,

(19:47):
fix it with one fell swoop. But it's not like
you necessarily need someone at that level to transform this
team into a contender. It could be as simple as
just go out and get a solid bucket getter to
help close out close games and that might be enough
based on how strong this team is in other areas.

Speaker 3 (20:07):
Yeah, I'm with you, and I think that sooner or
later we're going to have the discussion of is this
team real enough that you would consider sacrificing a first
hun pick for a guy that maybe doesn't fit long term,
which you know, if the Steams as good as they
seem like, if they are fighting for the one seed
by the deadline, there's an argument that can be made

(20:28):
that you should make a short sighted move, not you know,
not sacrificing your entire future for one, but someone who's
a rental for example. Right, that could make sense if
the Steams this good, because you know, opportunity in the
NBA especially, it's not an anty visitor. You can look
at teams like, you know, the Kings themselves, the Wolves,

(20:49):
the Greases have kind of climbed back the year, but
we know ACTU hear how it went with the entire conundrum,
which means, you know, if you think you can catch
going thing in a bottle, you know, and they are
just good at the deadline, that you should consider, you know,
like that, but that's disgusting for another band, and that's
there's more nuance to it than that. But obviously you

(21:12):
you want to see or kind of our human brains
want to see something linear in orders to overtime buy
into something being real right, And I think the Timberwolves
game was a big moment as far as, you know,
getting people to believe, and then the Sixers game, I think,

(21:33):
in a different way, did the exact same thing, because
the game was, you know, this is the thing that
Rockets were supposed to be blowing out, but they weren't.
And it was a tough game because it was in
the second half of back to back and for a
young team, that's exactly the type of especially one that
plays with as much intensity as the Rockets do. It's
the exact type of game where you expect or you

(21:56):
wouldn't be surprised that a young team slips up, especially
with you know that the sixth role war making some
crazy shots, couldn't really Guardter his Maxi, and you could
you could tell that there was, you know, the framework
was there for something bad to happen, and they held on,
still had to go to overtime, but once they got
to overtime, they kept going. And then we saw one

(22:18):
of the first true, I think, signature games from apron
chingun which he didn't have it for most of the game,
but at the end he is by far was by
far and or the reasons that carry drops through to
a win. And then you go into the Thunder game
and this is I think for most people unexpected unexpected loss.
I know people have been have been on my mentionment

(22:42):
on Twitter saying, oh, Tad wasn't playing Jet's a good player.
I'm not sure he's you know, a star yet and
I think he brings your stuff that ISAA Hartenstein doesn't.
But I think having Isa Hartenstein there also brought you
of that. Perhaps Check doesn't. And I think Isa Hartenstein

(23:03):
and the big role that he played had a pretty
big impact on this game. You know, green clothes for
so long, and he I think he was having a
terrific game, and up until the point that drew like
three fouls in a row in the third quarter, he was,
you know, probably the second best player on the Thunder.
Was just saying a lot because Kiln Williams an awesome
Guy's an awesome player. But then I think as that

(23:24):
game went along, and you can you can go scroll
through my timeline, you'll see that I wasn't confident that
we were going to win this game. It felt like
Shay was taking over. It felt like the reps were
going to give Shaye whatever called that he wanted, and
she is one of those guys that kind of like Harden.
You know, you can criticize that the rest are calling

(23:46):
the fouls, but really they are fouls. It's just about
the amount of contact that you're allowing and doing that
for both sides. But you can truly if you watch
her re please, you can't really say the arm fouls.
It's just you know, you're allowing something on on on
on the offensive players should also allow similar level of
physical than the defensive player on the offensive player. And

(24:07):
so at that point it felt like, hey, the Rockets
kept this goals for a long time, but here down
the stretch were probably, you know, either going to be
shooting the ball as well as we have the entire game,
and then She's gonna just carry them through via free
throws and the tough midrant shots that they always that
he always makes, because you know, there's nothing that's a
bad shot for like even the most unless you block

(24:28):
the shot, there's a good chance he's gonna make it.
And so it really felt like the Roncotts weren't going
to be able to get there, and they did and
I think a lot of people going to fight them,
fleeting that really deep three as the main reason they
kind of, you know, in in Qutch time kind of
pulled away. But I actually think, you know, I just

(24:49):
said I'm not superstitious, right, But at the same time,
it really felt like I didn't feel like that the
three was that big of a deal because case and
Walls hit him the other way and made the pretty
ridiculous three of his own.

Speaker 1 (25:03):
But I would argue that the bigger Fred three was
actually the first one at the three minute mark, which
was the reverse Casean Wallace had hit a three on
the other end, and then Fred tied it because when
Wallace hit that three, and you know the final three
minute is going to be SGA time, it felt like
the Rockets, when they had the ball down three, they

(25:24):
really needed to score that possession or the game was
on the verge of getting away from them, and so
Fred answering with that one low key that might have
been even more important.

Speaker 3 (25:34):
Yeah, I can, I can. You know, I can buy
into that as well. But I think most people will
talk about you because that thread three was pretty standard,
the one that was you know, the hut, the big
the big heave was the was the later one, and
it felt like that was instantly you know, kind of
denied or or or went the other way like right away,

(25:55):
kind of my my basketballline kind of things. Hey, if
Fred will make that one, I think I think while
missus that one as well. But that's not how it works,
you know, but sometimes you know, we let letters else
get away. But it really felt like as much of
a state montuine as he could possibly get. Shay, this
wasn't the bad game from Chase was, but I think

(26:15):
one of the best games of the season. For say,
he had, you know, thirty two points on nineteen shots
and crazy efficiency. He was making a ton of three
and she's very much bigger poison type of guy. If
he's making three, there's not really much you can do
because if you got them too far up, you're gonna
draw foul.

Speaker 1 (26:32):
Although I will say he went just one of five
in the fourth quarter. So that combination of Dylan Ty
and a Men, you know, the decisive possession. He had
the option when tri was on him of getting the
switch onto a Men, and he basically said, no, I'm good,
I'll just stay as it is because there's no good
option when you have three guys that could all switch

(26:53):
and insanely high level. I mean, what can you do
Even if you're a guy like SGA, It's gonna be hard.
And so I thought it was really telling that even
on a night where he had it going in the
first three quarters, especially the thirty was lights out and
the fourth Rockets still locked him up. And this is
one little thing. Let me go on a small rant here,
and I'm curious your thoughts on this. Going into the year,

(27:14):
I thought the Rockets might be a team that's disproportionately
better than most in back to back situations because of
their depth. I actually think now that they're worse because
of the six losses, three have come a night two
of a back to back. And I think because the
Rockets formula is so dependent on trying hard. If they're

(27:35):
even just a little bit off their game, and we
saw this a little bit in Philadelphia defending Tyree s Maasey,
then there's a lot of ripple effects because so much
of the Rockets formula involves defending and rebounding at a
ridiculously high level. And you know, when we talk about
this abstractly in the offseason, it's easy to point to

(27:55):
guys that are accomplished NBA players or have been in
the past, like Aaron Holliday Green, Jayshon Tate, Jack Wendell
at your like eleven through fourteen spots on the bench
and say, hey, if somebody needs a night off or
somebody doesn't have it, you can just turn to someone
like that and be better off relative to the opposition,
especially if it's like the Blazers game or they're both

(28:15):
on back to backs. But the thing is, you're not
going to sit a Tarry Eesen or a Men Thompson
for Jayshan Tate just because you fear that Tarry Esen
or a men might not have quite their normal energy.
That would be ridiculous. So what ends up happening is
that assuming everyone's healthy and knock on wood, you want
that to be the case, and it has been the

(28:36):
case for the most part this season, then the eleven
through fourteen spots don't even really matter. But when your
try hard guys aren't able to try quite as hard
because their tanks are on empty, then the team overall
just doesn't have the formula to the same extent as
opposed to Sunday when they haven't played since Wednesday, and
so everybody can put everything they have into that game,

(29:00):
no back to back consideration, so that they're not playing
again until tonight Tuesday night. Then we know what a
man and Tari can do. And then the final minute
of the game, look Dylan Brooks the shot he made
to put the Rockets in front to stay as the
shot clock expired. Off that scramble sequence, Shangoon finding him
after falling to the ground. When Fred missed that final

(29:21):
three that he took with just under a minute left,
SGA had the rebound, it was his ball, Dylan tied
him up, and whatever you think about the extracurricular sequence,
the bottom line is it was an SGA rebound that
Dylan threw. Sheer effort, forced a jump ball on and
then he won the jump ball. Even though Dylan and
Shay are pretty close to the same height. Those are

(29:44):
all little things. The effort plays which I think even
on a good night for SGA, the fact that the
Rockets were able to lock him up when it matters, obviously,
it speaks so well to how they can defend, but
also you know, zooming out a little bit. I think
what this tells us is that because the Rockets are
so dependent on being a try hard team, then maybe

(30:06):
maybe some of us, at least me, I think I
looked at it a little bit wrong. Maybe the Rockets
are team even though they're young, even though they do
have depth, because of how they want to win games.
Maybe a month like December where there aren't many back
to backs because of you know, the NBA Cup, there's
a lot of you know, buffer in the schedule, maybe
it makes sense that this is when the Rockets are
taking off, when they have a lot of rest going

(30:28):
into these games, and so the defenders, the rebounders can
go all out. Does that make sense?

Speaker 3 (30:33):
Yeah, I think I think that makes a lot of sense.
And I think that's exactly why I thought the Philly
game was such a crap game, because it's really felt like,
you know, I felt like it it made more of
a difference offensively than defensively, And I don't know if
you felt the same way. It felt like offensively, guys,
you know, those social points we weren't we weren't getting

(30:57):
because of how we're obviously very high after team of defensively,
but offensively, the way we score, even if it's not
obviously just yeah, it's it's but not only that, we're
we're kind of, you know, running headfirst into defenses and
kind of muscling our way through. It's why for this
offense in particular, it neither in shots really not that

(31:18):
bad because it's a lot of the time it's you know,
two points for zero if it's a three m stick.

Speaker 1 (31:24):
Yeah, And to your point on the offense, it felt
like a lot to me that your normal high usage guys,
especially Shangoon and Fred, were looking to Jalen to bail
them out. It felt like they knew for most of
that game that their tanks were on empty. And that's why,
you know, I said on social media, I do these
predictions and betting posts for Rockets Whire. The easiest pick

(31:47):
I've had all year was Jalen going over his scoring
prop against the Sixers because it felt like, especially the
way that Minnesota game played out, that your top shelf playmakers,
well Shingoon is and I'd argue that Fred's up there.
I mean, I know Fred's not a star, but I'd
say he's at least a top forty player in the NBA,
maybe a top thirty player when he has it going

(32:08):
the way he has for much of the past two
or three weeks. I think it was pretty clear if
you were watching the Rockets possessions in that game, and
even a men and Tari off the bench as well,
there were a lot of guys that were sort of
pointing to Jalen knowing that, and it helped that he
had a good start, But aside from having a good
start and being in rhythm, also knowing that because Jalen

(32:31):
didn't play well in Minnesota, didn't play a ton of minutes,
didn't have a ton of usage, that he was the
one guy that was springy, had some peppin step. There
was also no rim protection on his drives because there
was no EMBIID. It felt like offensively in that game,
there was a lot of you know, people looking to
Jalen and saying, can you please bail us out for tonight,
And to his credit, he largely did. Now you know,
Shimgung did step up late in the fourth quarter in overtime,

(32:53):
so kudos to him for doing what you know a
star should do. Fred had the joke after the game
of looking as watch and saying, you know, good thing
you showed up at nine thirty. Games started earlier than that.
But I think a lot of that just came down
to the Rockets wanting Jalen to sort of give them
the night off because their tanks were so unempty from
the night before.

Speaker 3 (33:12):
I think I'll use that to to kind of start
going to It's it's not really a ramp, but it's
more of a if I say, self reflection. As you know,
from my point of view as someone who started watching
basketball or Guardianto the NBA and the Rockets during the
Mauri era, the game's harden you know, time and how
that kind of molded the way I look at the game.

(33:34):
And you can tell by my preferences for players over time,
especially draft profiles, how MULTI value spacing and MUTI value
defensive hoosatility, how much I value a room protecting big
and they play making scoring, you know, go to guard
as my ideal way of building a team. And I think,

(33:56):
what's really turning to me, and I was thinking about
this the other day, is if I looked back or
if you if you handed stat sheet or a roster,
you know, if you if you gave me this current
Rockets roster and you you know, you know, you ran
me through all the arch types of players that we
could probably have. And you told me that we have
a man Thompson who's a wing, playmaking wing that cannot

(34:19):
shoot at this point obviously that's really the defensively you'll
get our ease, and that that's shooting thirty one percent
from three it currently. And you look at Dylan Brooks,
who's been shooting lights out, has you know, a questionable
you know, has questionable decision making as he takes. And
then you will at Freda Adletik at the guard lead

(34:39):
guard doesn't that doesn't provide any reprotection. Then they told me, oh,
we're actually building around a post hub Shang Goon, but
we actually don't have that great shooting around him. And
he's not that athletic, but he somehow has improved insanely
as he has improved in Ellen's in rhythm defense and
he's anchoring to you know, I think two very real extent,

(35:01):
one of the best defenses in the later I think
not the best. I would look at these pieces and
I would say there's no way that teams that I
could based on everything I've always believed basketball wise, I
would never believe that this team would be good. There's
not enough hunting there's not enough perimeter scoring, there's not
enough drible penetration, there's there is no vertical spacing. And

(35:27):
then defensively, yes, you do have you have an undersized
guard at the one. Even though that's a good defender
and he has really good hands, he's not necessarily you know,
as good as he once was, and he's not necessarily
you know, big enough for you for him to be
a lockdown guy. You have the one who's a great defender. Obviously,
you have a man, you have Starry. You are great

(35:49):
perimeter defenders. But then you have a center that's you know,
if you looked at him and you watch him play
through his first three years, you wouldn't expect to be
a good defender. And I'd say, hey, that looks like
a tanking team to me. It's just it Goza games.
Everything I've ever believed. But the truth is nowadays in

(36:11):
the NBA, more than at any point when for the
time I've watched, there's not one way of building a team.
And I know people talk about how the NBA is
falling off, and there's no big kind of attention drawing
superstars and from someone who actually likes basketball, right and

(36:34):
for the sport in general. I find it's fascinating that
you can win so many you can win so many
different ways. The Rockets currently are winning with terrible spacing,
terrible scoring, a somehow really really good defense that could
buy a post big that's not seven feet, nor that

(36:55):
grid of a shot walker even though he's gotten bad
radded that can't defend it, that can switch, I mean
not the fan that can switch that well either, But
they're really good. And then you look at the Thunder
and the are more of a more of a you know,
traditionally built team. So I guess I'll jump down the
bud there the tyfical, you know what I believe in

(37:15):
type of bucketball team. Look, then you look at the
Celtics and they're just stoodying the most trees I think
I've ever seen. And everybody on the team hits trees.
And they have key players in their lotations that are
not that good defensively, hurt basically startup shooters, but it
doesn't matter. They're blowing teams out anyways. I mean, Sam Houser,
Payton Pritchard, the carcass of all Horford and christofs Persingers

(37:39):
has been hurt for the longest time. And even though
they're quiet and true holy that I could a good
defensive cards, they're not necessarily you know, drew open atration
machines or private kick generating type of guys. And most
of their point and in their two stars, Brown and
Tatum are two wings that are more of the type
of I'm going to shoot over you or I'm going
to take a tender of a schemanic advent that that

(38:02):
my offense is giving me, then I'm gonna play off
of that. Just not your typical you know, for the
last ten years, a team that wins. And then you
look at the Calves, the pest tim in the East,
and they have two bigs and neither can shoot, and
it still works. And they play Isaaca Corro who's not
a good tutor either, and they play defensive liabilities like

(38:26):
Sam Merrill and Esneyang And there's one more than I'm
currently Max Trus obviously on the team. But I think
it's been hurt. Sorry, I'm not that in tune with
the Calves, but I know from watching them how they
play and almost nights and you look at it, it's
just there's there's just so many different ways to whip.
The Grizzlies are a very intriguing, intriguingly built team. It's

(38:50):
there's just to go back to my previous point, there's
just no one way of playing basketball and all this.
If you look at the Warriors, it's Steph Curry and
is basically the only start that and they somehow are
twelve and seven. It's just incredible how much variety there is.
And I think perhaps part of the reason why it
all works this ways because there's no true one Golden

(39:14):
State Warriors level team. And perhaps if you stack the
Warriors back then with the current you know, upper ether
one of basketball teams, and perhaps if you if you
match up the gyms hard and Rockets up their peaks
with respond with the current basketball teams, maybe maybe they
get they blow these teams out. But true truth is
we're not in that era anymore. The CBA makes it

(39:37):
harder and harder forre to ability like that, and there's
just so many different ways of winning basketball games. And
I just wanted to take a little bit of time
to really to admit that, you know, I don't know
if I was wrong, because perhaps in the era of
Falkepa that I grew that I that I grew up watching.
This wouldn't fly. Maybe it would, maybe it wouldn't, I

(39:58):
don't know, but I wanted to admit that, you know,
a lot of a lot of the principles that I
and a lot of the ideals that I grew up idolizing,
just are completely the opposite of what this team is.
And I have no alternative but to admit that this
team looks insanely good, and they find in the ways

(40:19):
in which they are good, really synergize well with each
other because they're young and athletic, and they are able
to play straight up defense on guys and go for stops.
But at the same time, because they generate so many turnovers,
they don't really need to be that good offensively in
the half court. And we'll see how that plays in
the playoffs. That's put a different, different discussion, but somehow

(40:42):
it works. And there there are other teams in the league,
like the Nicks, for example, who have the defenders, who
perhaps even have better half court scoring, and it just
doesn't match as well. And so some's just why. It's
why I say that the Rockets might have you know,
it's just strop fighting lighting in a bottle. They might have.
I think they might have something that's really special and

(41:03):
a really good recipe, which is why to kind of
go back on my take on Yannis. Actually I don't
want Yannis. He's way too transformative. The one thing I'm
willing to go all in for with our assets is
someone who comes in and doesn't change change the this
osten altizes together. All it changes is upgrading straight up

(41:24):
something that we have without any downfall, which is, you know,
when it brings me to say it as a guy
that's of killing green for a long time, WHI kid
is just getting a better scoreing shooting guard because either
of the guy that we are protecting to be available
eventually are that a bit of a downgrade defensive winds
so you can just plug them in. That's mostly what

(41:44):
I'm what my riff. Sorry if I went on too
long there.

Speaker 1 (41:48):
No, it's really interesting. You looked at it from the
standpoint largely of Ace's no's and how it plays out
on the court. I actually had a fairly similar observation today,
but was thinking about it more from the perspective of
team building. So ESPN put out this list today twenty
five under twenty five ranking the league's top twenty five
players under the age of twenty five based on future

(42:11):
potential and spoiler alert. You can read the story at
Rockets Wire where I aggregated it. But the Rockets had
four all pro in Shingoon at ten, Jalen Green at twenty,
a Men Thompson at twenty two, Tardy Easton at twenty four.
I think that ranking is definitely soft on Shin Gooon.
I think it's probably soft on a Men as well,
although I think you know, I understand how and these

(42:33):
were voted on by their media panel. I think with
the men, the sample has been so small it's easy
to forget. But this is just the first twenty games
of year two, and he missed a lot of year
one due to injuries and health issues. So I think
with the men he'll be a lot, a lot higher
than twenty two. It's just allowing the sample to grow.

(42:54):
But even five ten years ago, I would have been
somewhat pessimistic on where the Rockets are from the standpoint
of okay, you have a lot of pieces. The Rockets
with four have more than any other NBA team. The
Magic had three, nobody else had more than two. But
I would have felt a little down on the fact
that they don't have the Wimby the Anthony Edwards. The

(43:17):
axiom that's been thrown out so much over the years,
and I've said it myself, is quality trump's quantity in
the NBA because it's so star heavy in the playoffs
in terms of what wins championships. And that may still
prove to be true. The times are changing, and some
of this is the CBA as you went into, but

(43:37):
depth is becoming more important than never. And you know,
I don't necessarily accept that premise with the current Rockets,
because I do think Shingoon is undervalued at ten. But
even if I did accept the premise to some extent
that the Rockets don't have a Wimby or Ant level
one A, I'm not sure it's as important now as

(43:58):
it used to be because it's so hard to combine stars.
Just because you have the one doesn't mean you're guaranteed
to be a magnet to suddenly turn that into two
or three the way it used to, especially if you're
in a smaller market the way certainly when be an
ant are. But you know, there's different ways to win games.
But beyond that, there are also different ways to build teams,

(44:21):
and so during the regular season we're seeing the Rockets
have a strength in numbers approach. You know, depth can
benefit you in a number of ways, and one of
the ways it has for the Rockets is if somebody
doesn't have it going on a given night, then somebody
else can pick up the slack. And so when you
look at the three wins over the past week against
the good opponents, it's been Fred and Shangoon. They have

(44:41):
done the heavy lifting the game they needed off in Philadelphia,
Jalen Green stepped up and did the heavy lifting there,
as we talked about, and so that can help you
over eighty two. We'll see how it plays out in
the playoffs once the Rockets get there. But spoiler alert,
even if it doesn't go well, then more of the
benefits to having a team that has such vast depth
of top shelf prospects is that it makes it easier

(45:05):
to potentially make a big trade to get what you
need without disrupting that foundation, right because a lot of
teams if you want to get in the door for
say a Devin Booker or a Jaron Fox. Even if
we take Giannis off the table and we look at
someone that is more attainable without just completely blowing up
what you felt. Well, a lot of it comes down
to to make it work for the other team, you'd

(45:28):
have to give up something that for most teams around
the league would be so painful, so disruptive that they
wouldn't do it. And without giving up that type of player,
then it wouldn't be worth it to the other team
well by the Rockets having and it's really not just
for I mean, you can make a case for certainly
Jabari Smith, but you know, if you squint hard enough,

(45:49):
if you're optimistic enough, you can make cases for Reed
Shepherd and Cam Whitmore as well. When you have this
many guys, not only from the standpoint of winning games
in different ways, but if you do find that you
need to make an external acquisition down the road, you
can bring in someone like a Booker or a Fox
or a tier below make it work for the other

(46:09):
team without it disrupting your own formula. You know, you
look at teams that the Rockets might be competing with
on the trade market for one of these big names.
A lot of it comes down to, well, for it
to make sense for the other team, the price would
be too painful as opposed to because the Rockets, other
than Navy Shingoon, aren't that heavily dependent on any of

(46:31):
these young guys individually. That it also gives them more
options for team building, right, because you can make a
package that's attractive to other teams without it, you know,
just completely crippling the foundation and the culture of what
you built. Does that make sense?

Speaker 3 (46:47):
Yeah, I definitely think that he does. And I think
there's another angle to what they're saying to me, which
is if they do get to the playoffs and it
does to so make them fall flat because just the
game sols down too much, or you're not good enough
in the half court, there's the pathway forward is pretty obvious, right,
You don't have to reinvent the wheel. The Rockets are

(47:09):
in a unique position, which is why I'm so easily
sway towards the start trating it's the right star because
you can do you know exactly what you need, which
is you know, a scoring guard or scoring winged if
you if if you're preferring moves or current things are
so switchable that it can easily move them to the
two and and and saw someone else at the three.

(47:30):
It's that plus the fact that the Rockets have a
lot of kind of it's not this, I don't I
don't want to put it as disposable assets because these
are good players. But do Ruckets have a lot of
valuable assets that are currently very valuable assets, premium assets
that are currently not vital to the way the team
operates exactly, which is the case right now. We don't

(47:53):
know what it will be at the end of the season.
We don't know how these guys will progress. But and
as far as and and I just said, they are
really really valuable when I mentioned them, I can almost
assure you that fans will listen to it and they
will say, oh, I don't want to give that guy up.
So I'll perfect it with saying, if you want to
get something, you better give up something. But I think

(48:14):
it's for the dargest it's a really approach. It's opera
Chingom's in touch table. Because you're not going to build,
you'd you have to go away from your current philosophy.
And if you're going to build a winner twice reading
for one start can give up the start as you
already have. So that doesn't make sis be the same
thing as as the Brugunettes giving up Kdine when they
really the four teams are just wouldn't make sense. So

(48:36):
Huon's table, you can give up Turan them and they're
just too valuable for the current identity of the team.
And then your most your most valuable assets besides these
three our young guys that currently don't play huge roles
on the team. So you look at the rest of
the rotation. You have Prevent Fleets and the one Brooks

(48:57):
who I mean, they're not really necessarily going to be
the guys that are going to fetch you a big
return or be enticing for treading a star where that
he likely wants to reveal. And then you have Gaillan Green,
who's the guy you're trying to upgrade from, so he's
probably going to be involved. And then you have Leeke
Kepperd who plays a minimal role. You have him and
plays a minimal role and would be very, very valuable,

(49:17):
and we know you know from summerly the way he's
valued around the lead and what he's seen around the league.
And then you have him with more who's shown shown
things last year, hasn't been able to bring him too
the starting rotation this year. But if you're a team,
I think he'd be a really valuable asset for any
team trying to reveal because he's shown that that plas
ceiling and you can make a reasonable argument as to

(49:40):
why he's not playing right now. It's off because he's bad.
It's just because the guys ahead of them are better,
and Rocks are so deep that the guys that are
on playing I don't think are necessarily depreciating in valid.
It's just they have better guys ahead of them, so
they're not playing, but they remain when they go to
the deal. When Kem Whitmore is in the D League,
he looks like, you know, a guy that's clearly too
good to be there. So he's with someone who any

(50:01):
team that's looking to go into a rebel would love
to take. To take it's not really a fire because
he wouldn't be valued as a flyer, but would like
to pan on and give him the opportunity reache for
the same thing. Even if he finishes the season with
not the greatest stats people are with Chalk it up
to Hey, this Rockets team is not a conventional you

(50:22):
can you can't forget the stats of the players on
this team conventionally because they play different type of basketball
and reach cheppers aren't going to get that big. You know,
the team is really going to the rookie. He's not
going to get that many chances. As long as he
doesn't look completely out of place out there, I think
that raises his stock combined with his pre draft or
pre season stock, and so that's already a really enticing packet.

(50:46):
And then you have Son's future. You have a part
of your own feature. It's this all of this to
say that even if Rockets may only make a minor
trade for a bucket getter of some sort of perhaps
you know, the sunspec this year, which is not going
to be back great, or the Rockets don't pick this year,
which would only stop with a film which is not

(51:08):
going to be that late first, right, probably, that's probably
guys out that ut for a bit that you can
get for a late first as a rental or as
a two year deal or whatever it is. So when
you even if you make a move like that, you
reach the playoffs to see that it's not enough if
they're not in any type of situation already with stars
in place where you look at it and you see, oh,

(51:29):
either we have the assets, but the moves we can
make are for guys that completely change the team up.
It's not a situation like that. And it's neither a
situation where or are they walk into a formula and
you can't change from it and it's like going to
only change minor pieces. It's there's a very clear way
of getting this team better, whether it happens this season,

(51:50):
next off season, most likely even moving forward. I think
you probably don't want to let it run through unless
someone breaks out as a scorer. I don't think you
want to let it run through more than this offseason,
because at that point it becomes stagnant and it's hard
to be an effort driven team. If you stagnan it,
you gotta.

Speaker 1 (52:08):
And a lot of the results to justify a.

Speaker 3 (52:10):
Lot of its belief right, And so you have you
have you have to have within the players, within the
fans the view that hey, we were this good last
year and this is how we're moving forward, and there's
a there's a logical step up from what we had
last year, and that step up is very obvious. So
I think it's really hard if this team is able
to keep this up until the end of the season,

(52:32):
or or even if they're up the two seats of
the ones, even if they are the three other four
seat blowing expeditions out of the water. Anyways, the path
is very much, you know, already in sight of what
this team can look like, and to their credit, I
don't think it's going to be one of those situations
where the team's clearly looking for a move but one

(52:52):
isn't available, because I find I would be really surprised
if the Suns are still the team that they are
are tours as currently built next off season. I think
that there's too many vets there. There's not enough ways
to get better. I think that blows up next off
season on test Make eight you know Western Conference finals run,
which I don't think they will, and further help to

(53:15):
the Rockets. The other guy, the Aaron Fox everybody talks about,
is done a team that's currently the twelfth seed in
the West. There's currently nine and twelve that's going to
play the Rockets, and if the Rockets beat them, is going
to be nine and thirteen hopefully. Buck on wood And
is in a contract situation where he has a conduct
for this year and he has a contact for this
season after and he has then a player a player option,

(53:37):
and if the if the if the King's want to routine,
then he doesn't even have a player option. And if
the Kings want to get any value back from him,
if you're not, if they're not confident in him resigning,
they're likely going to have to trade the next top
season at the latest. They'll probably get a better return
that if they decide to give it up this offseason.
So it's you know, and there's also the camps that
Fox asks out, and Fox has ties to Houston Bean

(54:00):
I'm here if I'm not mistaken, So there's very clear
for both guys are very clear. They don't have to
stretch it. You have to to do too many mental
gymnastics to see a path where hell, I guess, I guess,
I do I love with my name to it. I
think the most likely scenario at this point is that

(54:20):
the Rockets finish has a top four seat going to
the playoffs. Love's in the first or second round, depending
on how good the seventh, eighth, the six, seven, eight
seats are. While it was in the first or second round,
it's a successive season, but it's not. You know, they
didn't get it's not good enough champions, so you're not
going to stay put. And I think after that, one

(54:43):
of these two teams, or within this timeframe until until
the end of next off season, one or one or
both of the Sun and the Kings fall apart and
the Rockets make a trade for one of these guys.
I think that's the most likely scenario. I'm not even
saying it's realistic. I'm sinking that's the most likely scenario.
I think that's more likely than the both of those

(55:05):
teams being together by then and the Rocket is not
having three.

Speaker 1 (55:08):
Next for one of them. And it's not a hot
take at all, because as we're recording this early Tuesday,
December third, we're over a quarter of the way through
the NBA season for the Rockets in most teams, or
very close to it in the case of the Rockets
and Kings. Both have played twenty one plus games, Kings
at twenty two, if I'm not mistaken, So this is
not an insignificant chunk of the sample. I know there's

(55:31):
just been six weeks to this point, but it's actually
been a pretty jam pack six weeks because there's not
going to be as many games next week with the NBA,
you know, turning its attention more to the NBA Cup
and wanting to space out games for those teams. By
the way, we haven't talked much about the NBA Cup
in this episode because we're recording it before the group
stage finales play out on Tuesday night. We'll talk about
the Cup more in a few days once we see

(55:53):
who the Rockets draw. Regardless of whether the one or
two seed, it is likely the Rockets, based endpoint differential
plus forty nine, are going to be one of the
two hosts in the West in that quarterfinal round final
four in each conference. But in terms of who they're
going to play, what the path forward is, what would
it mean if they get to Vegas, if they actually
win it. We'll talk more about that in a few

(56:14):
days once the bracket becomes clear, because right now it's
not just about what happens in the Rockets Kings game
King's Lemonade, but obviously the result could impact the Rockets,
but also the other teams that are in the West
and jockeying for seeding to get into the final four.
Then that is going to dictate what happens the next
couple of weeks and what the path forward is. And
so it's kind of pointless talk about hypotheticals there now

(56:36):
because there's so many. We'll come back to that in
a few days as the Rockets get ready for their
next game in the NBA Cup. That quarterfinal knockout game
will be next Tuesday or Wednesday, likely at two toison
or the tenth or the eleventh, most likely tipping at
a eight thirty pm local time, and it will be
a nationally televised game on P and T I believe. Again,

(56:56):
more on that in a few days. But the reason
I highlight that here is to say that because of
this time off, for relative time off for the Cup,
there aren't going to be as many games because the
NBA wants these teams to be fresh. Teams that don't
advance to you know, that quarterfinal round of the Cup
will be playing what amounts to constellation games that count
for the regular season standings, but there's just two of them.

(57:16):
They don't want to take away from the Cup during
those days. So it's been a fairly jam packed schedule
in these first six weeks. Rockets and a lot of
teams have had quite a few back to backs, and
so because of that, the sample is a lot bigger
than you might think. When you're over twenty five percent
of the way through the sample, it's not a hot
take at all to start saying what we think, assuming hell,
the Rockets or these other teams are going to be

(57:37):
anyway to close the loop on the discussion with a
concrete example that I think will illustrate how my view
has changed a few years ago. If you had asked
me at the start of the decade and the Rockets
were going into the so called tanking era and the
start of this rebuild, that in late twenty twenty four
there would be a list of the twenty five under
twenty five and shoot, let's name the team. Instead of

(58:00):
making it abstract, I'll say that competition is the San
Antonios first in State went into a rebuild around the
same time, or we knew they were headed for a rebuild.
And if you told me that that in four years
there'd be this twenty five hundred twenty five list, one
of the teams would have four players on the list
and the other would have one, but the one is

(58:20):
Victor Wimbanyama, I would have probably said. In a league
where four quarters historically decided equal a dollar. Just give
me Wimbanyama and I will figure out the rest. Now
I'm not so sure, And again that's not to take
the list at face value. I do think that Shamoon's
better than ten, but I don't want this episode to
be quibbling over the list, because there's a million lists,

(58:42):
and we can go back and forth all day long
and say, mine, we think they're underrating or overrating our prospects.
Shad YadA, that's boring. What's interesting to me is that
a few years ago, I would have said, yeah, give
me the one and I'll figure out everything else, as
opposed to seeing the way it's actually played out. In
the context of the modern NBA, you might want the
strengthen numbers approach not just from the standpoint of winning

(59:05):
games in the short term, but also the options it
gives you to build out your roster and get you
what you need in the years ahead. Time will tell
if I'm right on that. I'm not saying I've completely
changed my view, but what I'm saying is I'm much
more open minded, and I agree with you that it
makes the NBA a much more fascinating league because there's
so many different ways to both win games and bill teams.
And it's interesting that, you know, we looked at it
from two different perspectives, but I think we both know

(59:26):
had a similar sort of framework in mind as we,
you know, thought about what the Rockets have taught us
through these first incredibly impressive twenty one games. I want
to close the pod talking about one guy that we
haven't mentioned a lot, and one guy that wasn't mentioned
on this twenty five hundred twenty five list, and that's
Jabari Smith Junior. Early in the season, he was slumping.
We had a segment talking about how he was underwhelming,

(59:50):
but let's give him his flowers. Ever since that second
Clippers game, so starting November fifteenth, the Cup opener, so
it's not an insignificant sample. It's basically the second half
of the season to date. He's averaging fourteen and seven
per game, but he's shooting fifty three percent overall, fifty

(01:00:10):
percent on threes at nearly five attempts per game. Rockets
are plus eleven point three with Jabari on the court
in those games. Obviously he can defend at a high level.
We saw Emo Ujoka in the second half of the
Thunder game, uh lean into a Jabari Smith at the
five line up a little bit. I think his block
figures have also ticked up a little bit of ly

(01:00:31):
be at three against the Thunder. Even if you want
to say Jamari isn't quite as switchable as people thought
or what he was hyped up to be when he
was drafted in twenty twenty two, well I'd say he's
actually a little bit better as a room protector, and
a lot of people hyped him up, So it sort
of comes out of wash I think, especially on a
team where we already have Tari Easton and Aman Thompson
to help you in terms of the perimeter of the
switching that kind of stuff. The bottom line, Jabari has

(01:00:52):
been really good for a couple of weeks, and his
shooting he's right back at thirty six percent for the
year from three, which is almost identical to what he
was last year. So this is certainly not you know,
early in the year, when both Jalen and Jabari were slumping,
there was a tendency to throw them in the same bucket,
and that's not really fair because with Jalen, we're still
waiting for the first sustained sample of him shooting at

(01:01:13):
Bob average level. Jabari already did that last year. So
the slow start, at least in terms of the shooting
was always small sample sized theater. And he's already right
back to where he was. Ideally he gets closer to
forty percent than thirty six time. We'll tell if he
can do that. He asked for the last nine games.
But again, everybody has you know, hot stretches, cold stretches
over eighty two games. But first off, in the micro,

(01:01:33):
let's give him his flowers. He's helping them win games.
The other thing that I want to point out, and
this is not just based on my opinion, but having
some conversations behind the scenes at Toyota Center. So after
the first two or three strong games that Jabari had
in this you know, current stretch of nine games and
counting of really quality play, I asked some people in

(01:01:56):
the building if they were relieved that he was showing
signs again, And of course they were like, they want
to see all their guys play well, gain confidence, YadA, YadA.
But what this person told me was that they were
actually a little surprised themselves by how much Jabari, even

(01:02:17):
in that stretch where he wasn't playing or wasn't shooting well,
wasn't hurting their lineups. That when you looked at the
data of how lineups performed with Jabari on the floor,
even when he wasn't making shots, he wasn't really a
negative player. And the idea, I think is that, you know,
he's so fundamentally sound in number of various he can rebound,

(01:02:39):
he can defend, he can block shots, he's got length,
he doesn't take bad shots, he doesn't make a lot
of mistakes. It looks bad when he's struggling, and especially
when you know there's times you can see in affect
his confidence, he gets you know, a little indecisive, a
little timid, and so by the eye test it looks
really bad. And the rockets acknowledge that. But even people

(01:03:01):
inside the building were a little surprised that when they
looked at the data that even when he wasn't shooting
that well, and even when the eye tests said that, hey,
this guy doesn't look like he you know, belongs, especially
compared to you know, reserve options like a man Atari,
that when you look at the data, when you look
at how lineups perform with Jabari on the floor, when

(01:03:24):
you look at some of the advanced metrics, you know,
wind shares for forty eight, which you know, it's not
a perfect metric, nothing is, but it's one I trust.
He's above sixteen. It's the third best amongst rocket starters,
trailing only Fred and Shingoun. That's not the only metric,
others aren't quite as high. But the point is there's

(01:03:44):
some underlying data that suggests that Jabari is really helpful
at a team level. This is not like the Jalen
Green situation, where when Jalen is right, the highs are
really high, but when he's not right, he's not necessarily
providing value you in other areas. And that's why, especially
over the first three seasons, but to an extent still today,

(01:04:06):
the advanced tracking stats have never really liked him that much,
even the Rockets themselves. I think, you know, just watching games,
Jabari can look bad when he's struggling and when he
has some confidence issues by the eye tests, but some
of the more advanced metrics and the lineup data still
finds him to be solid. And with some of the

(01:04:27):
stuff with shooting. You know, I was having this conversation
with Jonathan Fagan longtime beat writer for The Chronicle, and
Jonathan's point this is a good one. It's not just
that you make shots, it's also do defenses think you're
going to make shots? And his point by that was
that if defenses are treating Shabari like he's a forty

(01:04:49):
three point shooter and show that type of respect to him,
and so he has a really positive benefit to you
as a floor spacer. He's not taking bad shots. He
knows where to be in terms of positioning on the court.
He knows when to pop out to the corner or
to the wing, wherever it is. Then he's still providing
value even if he doesn't necessarily make a shot. Now,
obviously that can't go on forever. At some point he's

(01:05:09):
gonna have to make some shots, so the scouting reports
will change. Thankfully to Jabari's credit. At the last nine games,
he's done that. But in terms of, you know, the
day to day, game to game, that's one reason why
Jabari is a very different situation than Jalen in that
it's not all just what the shooting percentages are and

(01:05:30):
does he give you X counting stat on a given night.
There's more to it with Jabari, and so first things First,
you know, let's give Jabari's followers. He's been a very
good player the last two and a half weeks, however
long it's been nine games in counting. But beyond that,
when you actually do a little bit of digging into
the more advanced metrics, when you look at how lineups perform,

(01:05:51):
we probably shouldn't have been as down on Jabari as
we were. I mean, certainly you can be down on
the shooting, but that was all small sample, slice theater.
And then in terms of how he fits with the team,
how he contributes to winning, what you hear more often
than not. To close the loop on this Jabari discussion,
I'll hand it off to UPLO to make closing comments
before we close out. And know E've been going on
for a while. I don't know what Jabari's ceiling is.

(01:06:12):
I don't know that he has star potential, but all
the evidence suggests that he is going to be a
good NBA player. I don't know how good. I don't
know if that's top fifty, top forty, top twenty five,
but he's not going to miss obviously from team building,
he can fit in so many constructs. We talked about
that in the past, but even now just day to

(01:06:34):
day in terms of playing you know, obviously as minutes
as the starting power forward, but we're seeing he may
lean into the more small ball center lineups, at least
against better teams. It just feels like the more you
do your homework, the more you take a step back
and look at things beyond the initial eye tests, this
is a player that's probably being undervalued by everybody, including

(01:06:57):
both of us. Is that a fair assessment.

Speaker 3 (01:07:00):
I think my take on Javari has been consistent since
the start, and it will continue to be consistent, and
I don't think it will as a guy that was
higher on a power than I was on Jari, obviously,
since the start, my take has been the same. Through
his struggles, the take has been the same. Now he's
doing well, the take is the same. He just needs

(01:07:22):
to shoot league average to be a very valuable player.
It's just what it is. He's got the size, he's
mobile enough, he's a good rebounder. As he said, the
fundamentals are all there. All he needs to do is
be able to space the flour for him to be
a very useful role player. And the ceiling to me

(01:07:42):
isn't much higher than that, But the flour isn't much
more than that either, as long as as the slout
stays consistent. And so he is not going to be Homer,
a homer and draft pick, but he's going to be
a very valuable draft pick and no case scenario out
of your out of a top three drafted because of
how unique his profile is in the league. That you

(01:08:04):
have a lot of lengthy guys, you have a lot
of guy that can shoot. You don't have a lot
of six ten shooters that can just rise a picture
over anyone on any given plage you can set up
for them as well as as the fan one. I'll
say it one to four fairly competently. And it's just
what I've said from the beginning. It's what I'll say

(01:08:25):
until and hopefully it doesn't happen he's out of the league.
There's as long as the shot is there and it
feels like and I didn't and I think you can
roll back to pots and see what I said three
parts ago. I said, Cam, I just need you to
make your threes. He's making his threes, and it appears

(01:08:46):
that the rough shooting start of the season has actually
been was just a small sample and all of averages
has brought him back up to nearly thirty six percent
from three for the season, and so and you look
at season as a whole, he's a thing be six
percent cutter. He's a valuable role player, and especially for
a team that place the way the Rockets do. He's

(01:09:06):
obviously been really really good as of late. But rather
rather to look as at his entire season, and instead
of discrediting the beginning and putting too much credit on
this one, I'd rather look at it as a whole
and say, this is what we need from Jabari Smith.
He's not a very high responsibility player for this team,
but he is a valuable, very valuable player for this team.
And as long as it rather him be more consistent

(01:09:29):
rather than the hubs and at the ups and downs,
but as long as for a season he can continue
to shoot thirty six percent at the very least, he
was a good draft pick and he's someone that Rockester
wants to keep around long term because a bit like
Tarry Eason, he's always going to be more valuable than
what you could get for him in the trade for

(01:09:49):
our team, and he seems to have a really elite
attitude as well. And I think that's something that is
not talked about often enough with him, because he's not
the most outburst oriented type of guy that to go,
you know, to make a huge scene when he's playing
really well, or be really really done on himself when
he when he's not. It seems like he's pretty even keel,

(01:10:12):
which is a good contrast with with Tari and and
and and to some to some extent, the men as well,
even though Man is more on the even kill side,
which to me makes it less likely that you'll have
that he'll ever kind of just spiral lot of control
and be out of the lead because he can't shoot
anything in his own head. He's been through so much
struggle so far and the mental toughness that it has

(01:10:33):
taken for him to accept the play that he has
been thus far. There obviously still has some website, but
the play that he's been thus far well being a
top three big I look at him in a different
way than I look at most other players on the Rockets.
I'm almost kind of proud of him because it what
he has gone through with the losing and not being
good or very very early on and and then accepting

(01:10:56):
that perhaps he's not going to have the career he
dreamed though, but he's going to have a league good
career and all of the maturity that he has shown
throughout that process, I agree he's one of the guys.
I'm just really rooting for him to be here long
term because I think he can be even more so
a culture corner piece for this team as well.

Speaker 1 (01:11:14):
And by the way, to your point on his demeanor,
I thought it was interesting that Tari on Instagram a
few days ago talked about how much better he Jabbari
that is, plays when he's yelling at himself on the
court and getting hyped when he makes shots. I thought
that was interesting, and it goes back to what you
were saying that Jabari typically doesn't do that, but I
think Tari's trying to get him to do that a

(01:11:36):
little bit more to sort of get himself going. And
you know, some of these guys will rub off naturally
on each other, and so maybe we're seeing Jabari start
to branch out in those areas a little bit. You know,
he's going to take on characteristics of guys like tarian
amen and maybe tarian men are going to take on
characteristics the guys like Jabari a little bit. That's just
sort of naturally the ebb and flow of how having

(01:11:56):
a team in one locker room goes, and when you're
one games, it's it's all for better than for worse. Yeah.
I just thought about this with Jabari, not just because
he's helping them win games a lot in the last
few weeks, which he is, but no, out of I
called a respectful back and forth with ra Hot Huck
read Nanny four on Twitter a few days ago. Who

(01:12:17):
you know he was trying. You know, ro Hot's really
good at making macro points, and he was talking about
how interesting it is for this iteration of the Rockets
and the rebuild that you know, so many of the
home runs have come later in the first round, guys
like all for Inch, Shingooon, Tarry Eason, We'll see what
happens with Cam Whitmore as opposed to the super high
traft picks like Jalen and Jabari. And I push back

(01:12:40):
on that, not because his broader point is wrong, No,
I mean the Rockets, and it ties back into quantity
over quality. Maybe it's just about the amount of bites
at the Apple and some of them hit, some of
them don't, and as long as you hit on enough,
it's going to be fine regardless of where they're drafted.
But I think it's a mistake to put Jalen and
Jabari in the same bucket because with Jalen, and it
remains to be seen, you know, still too early to
be in or out totally on both of those guys,

(01:13:02):
But there's just a high, high degree of variance with Jalen,
and it feels like most of his outcomes a you're
going to be, you know, really good for his draft slot,
are really bad. And obviously at the moment it's trending
not in the best direction. We've talked about that. We
don't need to get into that again. I'm going to
wind down the pod in a couple of minutes anyway.
But with Jabari it's entirely different. There isn't nearly as
much variance compared to Jalen, and I just think that's

(01:13:23):
a very important distinction to draw when it comes to
understanding this team and what the outcomes are are moving forward.
That's not to dispute what Rahat's larger point is. No,
it's accurate, and it does have some mentioning him building implications.
But I think Jalen and Jabari individually we shouldn't throw
them in the same bucket, even if neither one to
this point is quite to the level you would hope
for when they were drafted. Jaleen number two and twenty

(01:13:45):
twenty one, Jabari at three and twenty two at the
same time, the reasons for that and the implications for
the future are wildly different between those two, and so
I think that it helps in contextualizing what they've shown
you to this point. And I also think it plays into,
you know, what the people inside the building were telling
me as far as even when Jabari isn't shooting well,

(01:14:07):
the lineup data still suggests that he's having a positive impact. Now,
to your point, Palelo, that's not going to go on forever.
If he doesn't shoot well. He needs to shoot well,
or eventually the scott In reports are going to change.
He's not going to provide the floor of spacing and
so on and so forth. But as long as the
numbers stabilize and they have that, he's going to be
a positive contributor. And you know, long term, does that
mean Top twenty five, Top forty, Top fifty, Top one, hundred.

(01:14:28):
Time will tell, but I feel pretty confident he's going
to be a quality, starting caliber player in the NBA
for a long tide, And if we had any doubts
about that a few weeks ago, I think his return
to what we saw all season last year, over eighty games,
has confirmed that he is who we thought he was,
which is a very good player in the NBA for
a long time and someone I think the Rockets will
prioritize having around them for you know, potentially many years

(01:14:51):
to come, certainly beyond his current contract, which is up
for an extension as soon as next offseason. Anyway, I've
talked about a lot today and we've gone on for
well over now, So you know what, let's wrap it
because we're not going to be We're not going to
have too much of an off favorite for our next show,
because we're going to get more into the NBA Cup
as promised when we come back, because after Tuesday's games,

(01:15:12):
we will have matchups set in terms of the final eight,
the final four in the West, who the Rockets play
likely host at Tuitus in our next week, and so yeah,
I think it'd be fascinating for the Rockets to get
to Vegas, and I think there's some great implications if
they can actually win the whole Enchilada. But let's table that.
We've had enough to discuss as far as just the
fifteen and six start today, and let's table the Cup

(01:15:34):
discussions until we see what the actual bracket looks like
once the Rockets get to the knockout stage again, stay
tuned more on that in a few days. For today,
this is where we will end it. But if you
want more content before that next NBA Cup theme show,
the best place to get insight from us is online,
where of course you can follow me on Twitter, slash
x at Bendubo's at Palo Alves, NBA and this show

(01:15:56):
at the logger line and if you go shoot the
logger lines page, just hit up the link tree in
the Bible and you've got links to all our distribution
partners Apple, Google, Spotify. You'd be kind of have to
subscribe leaf Podsit Review at your location of choice. We'd
greatly appreciate that. Also on that link tree you can
find links for friends, sponsors, partners of the program, USA
Today's Rockets, Wire Car, back Prowings, Forts, Tax seven ninety.
Hit up those links and you can enjoy their content

(01:16:16):
as well. So with those funds complete, we will finally
adjourn for today for Paolo. I'm Ben. Thanks always for listening,
and please come back soon for another new episode of
the Logger Line.

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