April 3, 2025 • 31 mins
With 13 wins in their last 15 games, the Rockets (50-27) have officially clinched their first division title and NBA playoff berth in five years!
Thursday's episode reflects on reasons to celebrate in Houston, along with what to watch for as the 2024-25 Rockets try to secure the West's No. 2 seed and position themselves for an extended playoff run in April and May. The latter likely requires a near-peak version of Fred VanVleet, whose health is suddenly in question again. Let's discuss!
Thursday's episode reflects on reasons to celebrate in Houston, along with what to watch for as the 2024-25 Rockets try to secure the West's No. 2 seed and position themselves for an extended playoff run in April and May. The latter likely requires a near-peak version of Fred VanVleet, whose health is suddenly in question again. Let's discuss!
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Cheers, Rockets fans, Welcome to the lagger Line, an exclusive
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The logger Line.
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Ready, get Ready The lagger Line.
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It starts now.
Speaker 3 (00:30):
Welcome aboard, Welcome back to another new episode of the
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Speaker 2 (00:44):
I'm Ben Dubos, your host, editor of USA Today's Rocket
Square and contributor to Sports Talk seven ninety, official flagship
radio station of your Houston Rockets. Hello. Al's my usual
co host and producer out of Portugal is on vacation
for a few days, so long discussions will have to
wait until he's back next week. But I did want
to put out an episode in the interim with immediate
(01:06):
reaction to the big news, which is that the Rockets,
for the first time in five years, are back in
the NBA Playoffs, and for the first time in six years,
there will be playoff basketball played in Houston, Texas. That's
because Wednesday night, the Rockets took care of business at
home against the Utah Jazk that gave them their fiftieth
win of the season, and so because of that they
could no longer be passed by the Memphis Grizzlies, who
(01:28):
have a forty four and thirty two record and only
six games left to play so they can max out
at fifty wins. Rockets already have fifty in Rockets to
have the tiebreaker because they took three or four from
Memphis this season, so Houston secures its top six seed
because Memphis is tied for the six and seven slots
and the Rockets can no longer fall below them, but
(01:49):
because Memphis is the second place team in the Southwest Division,
Rockets also clinched the division title for the first time
in five years and only the ninth time in nearly
sixty years as a professional basketball franchise. So a monumental
day across the board for the Rockets fifty wins division
title playoff berth, all of it happening courtesy of a
home win against Utah by thirty eight points, where even
(02:11):
Reed Shepherd got to be your victory cigar with five
threes in the fourth quarter. So much to like, and
in some ways, even though there was a frustrating loss
to the Lakers. I will get to that a couple
of nights earlier. The fact that you got to celebrate
at home, that everyone got involved, that you were able
to basically do three and one with the playoff clinching win,
(02:33):
the division clinching win, and the round number a symbolic
one of fifty. I think clearly showing the Rockets have
reached another level in this rebuild, and it's not really
a rebuild anymore because at number two in the Western Conference,
fifty to twenty seven, with five regular season games left
to play, they're no longer rebuilding. They're here. So I'll
try and be quick since it's just me, but my
(02:56):
main message that I would convey to the fan base
celebrate this. Imagine if someone told you last summer that
the Rockets would win fifty games, win the division, have
their playoffs seed locked up, with five games still to play,
they could get to as many as fifty five wins.
This was a group that had an over under number
(03:16):
of forty three and a half going into the season. Yeah,
they went forty one and forty one last year and
had a lot of young talent, but the Western Conference
is deep to get to fifty plus wins in a
conference this strong is not easy to do. And I
don't care what they do in the playoffs. Well, I
guess if they get swept and like everyone plays poorly
(03:36):
and the average marger defeat is like thirty points per game,
I guess that might take a little bit of the
shine off. But more realistically, even if they go out
in round one, okay, well, most young teams have to
take their lumps in the playoffs before they truly get
to a contending level. The Thunder where the best team
in the Western the regular season year ago, and they
lost in five in the second round to Dallas. This
(03:58):
stuff happens, so I would celebrate this if you're listening
to this podcast. If you're tuning in to a marathon
sport like the NBA that has eighty two regular season games,
it can't all be dependent on the playoffs in terms
of how you feel about your team, especially if they
are this young. The whole idea for the Rockets throughout
this rebuild has been not to shortcut the process, that
(04:20):
by drafting and developing talent in house, you can have
a sustainable contender. Those are the two words that ever
since this rebuild launched in early twenty twenty one that
I've heard from twyoas in more than any others sustainable contender.
It's not all about this playoff run, and especially not
for a team that's this young. You will have more chances.
(04:41):
That doesn't mean they can't do something special this year.
Crazier things have happened. But if things don't go well, okay,
teams have to take their lumps. They have lots of
young players. The core seven when we talk about guys
drafted in the first round of the last four NBA
draft cycles, they're all twenty three years old or younger.
Three or the seven are in their first second seasons.
So there's plenty of upward mobility. Even if things don't
(05:04):
go well in the playoffs. You've got the future Phoenix
picks because Rafelstone made a really shrewd deal with the
Brooklyn Nets last off season. And so if you think
you need to go out and get a Kevin Durant
or some sort of proven difference maker to help elevate
this current team to the next level in a year
or so, well you'll have the ability to do that
this summer. If you think you need to this is
(05:25):
not the end, this is the beginning, and so to
check all of these boxes at the start of the journey,
I think ahead of even where the Rockets internally thought
they would be in early twenty twenty five. This is
a day and it's a season that you should celebrate.
And I don't think anything that happens in the playoffs,
and I'm not saying I think it's going to go poorly.
(05:46):
I'm just exploring even the realistic worst case scenario. You
go down to a good team in Round one of
a strong Western Conference. I don't think it's going to
dramatically change the optimism that you're feeling right now, which
is completely justified to be ahead of schedule. At this point,
it's almost like house money in terms of the upcoming
(06:06):
playoff run. I think if you're number two in the West,
they are capable of winning a series, maybe multiple series.
I think this team, it's not looky. They have the
second best point differential in the Western Conference, so they
can absolutely make some noise if they do need to
get fred Denvleet healthy. I'll talk about that in a
few minutes, but I just think at this point, the
(06:26):
symbolic number of fifty, being a division champion, potentially getting
as many as fifty five wins, having your playoff seed
locked up with two weeks almost left to play. It's
a momentous occasion for a franchise that this decade they
bottomed out and it was not pretty and it was
difficult for all of us to get through, but we
(06:47):
did and now they're on the other side. Realistically, they've
been on the other side ever since they hired Emo
Udoka in the twenty twenty three off season, brought in
the veterans like Fred Denfleet, Dylan Brooks, Jeff Green. But
I think checking all of those boxes, fifty wins division
title playoff berth all in one night at home at
Toyota Center, where the Rockets, by the way, are twenty
(07:08):
eight and eleven this season. So if they get home
court in the playoffs, and it looks like they're going
to be in position to have it at least for
one round, hopefully more than that, which they'd be in
position to do. If they're the number two seed as
they are at the moment, then yeah, they'll have every
opportunity to make some noise. And I think for a
team that hasn't for the most part, Fred and Dylan
(07:29):
excluded from this. They haven't taken their lumps in the postseason.
It will help being able to sort of dip their
toes in the water at home before having the full
fledged experience of playing on the road in a super
hostile environment in a game that has playoff intensity on
both ends of the floor, so a lot to like.
I only explore the downside scenarios to point out that, hey,
(07:50):
even if the worst case happens from here forward, I
think at this point this year is a resounding success
no matter what. And from this point forward, it's just
about saying how far ahead of schedule they are in
terms of realistic expectations, what our hopes were going into
the year. They are already ahead of schedule. It is
already an A or A plus level year, no matter
(08:13):
what happens the rest of the way. Again, if it's
something insane where they get swept and the average margin
is like thirty points per game and everyone plays poorly,
I guess that's the one scenario where it's not but
I personally don't think it's realistic. And even if somehow
that did happen, then okay, you do have other upgrades
or other avenues to upgrade your team, be it through
(08:35):
internal growth of these young guys, you will learn about
them no matter what in the playoffs or externally being
able to go out and make a big move and
bring in a difference maker that can potentially take you
to that next level. So I think this is a
week that you should celebrate everything that has come with
being a rocketspan this decade, there've been a lot of woes,
and so if you stuck it out and you go
(08:58):
through the grind of watching majority of eighty two game
regular seasons, if you care enough to listen to a
podcast like this, you shouldn't let whatever happens in the playoffs,
especially with the team this young and with this much
potential to get better both internally and externally moving forward.
This is a home run no matter what this twenty
four to twenty five season for the Rockets, and we
(09:20):
should also note they've gotten better as the year moves along.
We can talk about all the benchmarks that they cleared.
They're now thirteen and two in their last fifteen games,
so on top of the overall season long numbers, their
positioned in the West, the fact that they're playing their
best ball when it means the most. We know the
lumps they took at mid season, they had a lot
(09:41):
of injuries, they had that stretch in early February where
they lost six straight games. To come out on the
other side and to go thirteen and two in their
last fifteen down the home stretch of this season, I
think it shows you that, and in some ways it's
like a microcosm of the rebuild as a whole. You
take your lumps, but when you zoom out and look
(10:02):
at not just the macro, or not just the micro,
but the macro, the upward trajectory, it's clear they are
rising quickly. And it's a week that's just a really,
really good time to be a Rockets fan. So I
would urge you to celebrate. I would say, even the
loss earlier this week to the Lakers, it didn't really
(10:23):
bother me. I mean, for starters, night two of a
back to back, they don't have any more of those.
We know that's been an issue all year long for
a few reasons. This is the team that depends on
having peak effort, which is difficult to do on night
two of back to back, especially on the road. Seven
to ten in those seventeen second night of a back
to back, setting no more of those. I thought the
officiating was terrible as well, and yet you were right
(10:45):
there within a possession in the final minute of the gate.
This was not like the Denver game, which did bother me,
and we talked about that on the last pot a
little over a week ago. When they were down nineteen.
They didn't seem to have a plan for Coveringaul Murray.
There were lapses in focus and competitiveness. I thought that
(11:05):
Lakers game, the Rockets took it very seriously, even having
some tired legs. I think the adrenaline of being on
national TV, the spotlight against Lebron, James, Luka, Dancic. They
responded to that, and I saw some national takes trying
to frame it as, oh, the Lakers have proven closers
and Lebron and Luca. We know the questions with the Rockets,
(11:27):
do they have an a one? Jalen Green did just
win his second Western Conference Player of the Week award,
but he wasn't great against the Lakers. Just nine points,
nine rebounds, I think, shot four to twelve something like that,
and he ultimately didn't close the game. That's really not
what decided the game. The Rockets were down seven with
a little over six minutes left. So this was not
a matter of the Lakers just out executing the Rockets
(11:49):
when it mattered most and Superstars being the difference. No,
the Rockets got very close multiple times, cut it to
two three points. They couldn't get over the hump. The
problem was the hill they had to climb. The Lakers
from about the midway point of the game to the
middle part of the fourth quarter put some distance between
themselves and the Rockets. And it wasn't that, you know,
(12:11):
the Rockets just didn't have the guy that could take
over the game. No, it's that the Rockets strategically left
open certain Lakers. Dorian Phitty Smith gave Vincent, you have
to give up something if you're going to commit the
resources to force Lebron and Luca into inefficient games, which
they did. The Rockets decided they would live with shots
from Dorian Phitty Smith and gave Vincent, and they went
out and made six threes apiece shot twelve of twenty four.
(12:33):
That's tough to do. I don't care where the looks
are coming from. The Rockets dared those guys to make shots,
and they did. And conversely, the Lakers dared Fred Van
Fleet to make a lot of shots and he didn't.
He shot two of fourteen one of seven from three.
And we now know because he sat out Wednesday's game
against Utah he was dealing with ankle and knee issues.
So the Rockets they started the game going through all
(12:54):
for in Shaoon. We know the gravity that Jalen Green
has on a nightly basis. And even if you want
to say that Jalen Green underachieved against the Lakers, which
you did, okay, well, I would say a men Thompson
over achieved twenty points. It had some tough buckets down
the stretch. I would say the three of those, Jalen,
Chinooon and a Men, those are your primary advantage generators
(13:15):
on offense. And then Jabari Switztun, you're coming in off
the bench, had a promising game against the Lakers as well.
So those are the guys from a Houston perspective that
generate your advantages, and so you need your other players
on the floor with them to make shots. In much
the same way that for the Lakers, Lebron and Luca
are the advantage generators and the Rockets. You know a
(13:36):
men Thompson and Dylan Brooks did a good job at
the point of attack, but they also had some help,
and so the Rockets stared certain guys to beat them,
and the Lakers had two guys step up and make
shots at a high level. Tip your hat to them.
And conversely, the Rockets generated some advantages with Jalen Shangud
and the men. Your three promising young talents with a
lot of creativity and athleticism, and not enough of the
(13:57):
Rockets supporting cast made their open looks off off of
the gravity, off of the attention that their big three drew.
And with Fred again, it's not just the LA game.
His final five games before sitting out against Utah, he
had shot just twenty five percent from the field and
twenty five percent from three. So all in all, the
Lakers had two of their role players step up and
(14:20):
make six threes a piece, combined to shoot twelve of
twenty four from behind the arc. Fred Fmfleet shot two
of fourteen overall and one of seven from three. The
fact that the Rockets were even close given those splits
tells you how hard they played, how well they played defensively,
offensively even if you want to say Jalen underachieved at
say a men probably overachieved a little bit. A'll no,
(14:40):
it was a promising showing on the road night to it.
Back to back, bad officiating, all of that stuff, and
the Rockets were still right there, and so unlike the
Denver game, I don't have a lot of concerns. It
was frustrating to lose the way the Rockets did, but
I don't think they got out coached. I don't think
there was an effort problem. I think the Lakers role
players just made a few more shots at home in
(15:01):
a game where they had a rest advantage as well.
I think you just sort of tipped your cap. And
if the Rockets play the Lakers again, and they will
next Friday, I like the rockets chances. I think it's
a pretty good matchup for them. And so in contrast
to that Denver game, where I did think there were
a few alarming things in terms of the lineups that
Imo Udoka ran out there, the focus they played more
accurately didn't play with I think against the Lakers it
(15:22):
was a lot better and a good team just went
out and got to win. Sometimes that happens. I don't
see any real reason to be alarmed by it, especially
when two nights later we saw how the Rockets responded.
I know the Jazz are bad, they're sixteen and sixty. Well,
it's not easy to beat any NBA team by forty,
and the Rockets went out and did that, and they
got to celebrate a bit in the postgame locker room
as a result. So I think, all in all, it's
(15:48):
been a very good week. Even with that loss, it's
clearly been a very good season for the reasons outlined earlier.
As far as the final five games, the big elephant
in the room for me is the health of fredven
Fleet because barring an extreme injury, and I don't think
that's what we're dealing with. It's more of a nagging situation.
He's not gonna not play. The contract has some role
(16:11):
in it, but it's more just his stature in the league,
and he does provide some value. The intangibles are real.
They're not going to just bench the guy and not
play them at all or dramatically scale down his role. Now,
I would argue, and I think they're open to this.
If it's not going well, should you play twenty five
to thirty minutes instead of thirty five to forty. Yeah,
there's no reason he should be going out there and
(16:33):
playing forty ish minutes per game if he's not shooting well.
As I said in the last pot, let's not Martin
Maldonado this. But assuming he's relatively healthy and imy Udoka
said when he sat out Wednesday, Fred that is that
the ankle slashing, the issues or something he's probably going
to have to deal with the rest of the season
and try to manage. It's not that uncommon at this
(16:56):
stage of an NBA season when we talk about ligament issues,
which a sprain and inherently entails, and if they miss
a month or more as Fred did, it's clearly died
a grade one. Realistically, you need and tell the off
season to get fully healthy, to let it completely heal.
There's a level that you can play with and that's
(17:16):
what Fred has gotten back to. But in terms of
being fully healthy all the way back, that doesn't happen
until you have a month or more usually to rest,
and that's just not realistic at this point of the season.
And it's not just Fred, Guys all around the NBA
are going through the same challenges, and you know, it
should help that there are no more back to backs.
(17:37):
I don't think it's a coincidence that this especially flared
up after the Rockets had that road back to back
in Phoenix and LA. But I do think it's something
that with the Rockets now having a lead of some significance.
In addition to the Rockets taking care of business Wednesday,
we got some very unexpected help from Denver, where the Spurs,
(17:58):
who are largely in tank mode without Wimby, went in
and beat the Nuggets. Russell Westbrook Rockets legend. Not only
did he lose the game for the Nuggets on Thursday
or on Tuesday excuse me, against Minnesota with the mislayff
and then the foul of a three point shooter in
the final second, he effectively lost the game Wednesday as well,
or I should say the loss for Denver because of
(18:20):
Russell Westbrook and because of the way it went down
on Tuesday, ended up forcing them to lose Wednesday as well,
because after a double overtime game that ended after midnight,
so many tired legs. It didn't make sense for the
Nuggets to play all their big guys like Jabal Murray
like Nicola Jokic on night to back to back, and
so the shorthanded Nuggets went out there and lost to
(18:40):
this furs as well. That's a game that you would
never think, on paper, had any chance to go to
the Rockets way in terms of, you know, the standings
race being a top to top three seed. We know
the Rockets are competing with teams like the Nuggets, the Lakers,
the Warriors, and to get that help from the Denver Nuggets,
it's unexpected and it gives the Rockets a little bit
of a luxury when it comes to how they navigate
(19:01):
these final five games of the season. Because you're now
up three games in the lost column over the Nuggets,
You're up two games in the lost column against the Lakers,
pending what happens in Lakers Warriors later tonight. That's certainly
a losable game with only five games left to play.
So even though it's difficult for the Rockets, who look
at their closing schedule and they've got the Thunder, the Warriors,
the Clippers, the Lakers, the Nuggets for starters, I would
(19:23):
say the final week of the year, it may not
be as difficult as it looks on paper. I know
they've got this challenge and closed statistically at ranks as
one of the toughest in the entire league. Well in
the final week of the year. A lot of these teams,
even if they're competing for seeding, are going to be
proactive with resting guys a week before the playoffs, especially
those teams, and most of these are are veteran Layden.
(19:45):
The Warriors with Stuff, the Clippers with Kawhi and James Harden,
the Lakers with Lebron and Luca, the Nuggets with Jokic.
The Thunder I guess they're the one team that's not
super veteran Layden, but they have such a massive lead.
We'll see how aggressively they go after that game on
Friday and Houston. But the point is, just as we
saw the Nuggets sort of pull back against the Spurs
(20:06):
in a Western conference that is this deep to where
any team you draw other than maybe Memphis given the
coaching change and the way they have fallen apart down
the stretch of the season, and I don't know what
seed you'll need to be and potentially draw them. They
may not even make the playoffs, depending on how they
fare in the play in tournament because they're now tied
for the seventh spot. It's going to be difficult. You're
(20:27):
going to need to execute, and so these teams that
are dependent on veteran stars may rest them over the
final week of the season. So the schedule for the
Rockets probably isn't going to be as difficult as it
looks on paper. But even if it is, to have
a three game lead with a week five games left
to play, that's pretty significant. If you go to playoffs
(20:48):
status dot com, which simulates based on team strengths the
remainder of the season and spits out probabilities, they have
the Rockets as a ninety eight percent probability to be
a top three seed and eighty five five percent at
number two. That is pretty massive. Less than one percent
is the possibility of them falling to five, which would
be not having home court advantage. So the Rockets, they'll
(21:10):
play their first home playoff games since May of twenty nineteen.
They will most likely open in Houston on Saturday the
nineteenth or Sunday the twentieth. And so I talked in
the last pot about how first you've got to get
into top six, that's the bare minimum. Then the second
benchmark is being in the top four, making sure you
open it home. And then the third benchmark, what makes
(21:32):
the close to the season an absolute a is getting
in the top three. Well, the first benchmark is mathematically cleared,
and the second benchmark, being in the top four is
quite literally at ninety nine percent now and the third benchmark,
which is top three, being on the opposite side of
the bracket from the Thunder and having home court advantage,
is now at ninety eight percent. Even if that might
(21:53):
be a little bit strong for at least my taste
when I look at how difficult the close is on pay,
the point is it is very likely, even if it's
not ninety eight percent, it is very very likely the
Rockets are gonna be on the opposite side of the
bracket from the Thunder. They're gonna get home court advantage.
They've taken care of business, and so because of that
they can be a little more proactive with any injury
(22:16):
situations out there. And this fred Vinfleet situation. Look when
he came back from the ankle injury at the start
of March or in the middle of March, because he
had the one game comeback against Sacramento where he reaggravated
it by stepping on the ref's foot in the first
minute of the game. He came back, and in the
first six games after March twelfth, he averaged about seventeen
(22:37):
points per game on forty five percent overall shooting and
forty five percent from three, and the Rockets went six
to zero. And some of that, of course, was that
insane game in Miami where he scored thirty seven, basically
won it by himself along with him and Thompson, and
I think shot nine of eleven from three. But it
wasn't just that game. He was over forty percent his
first two games back. He had five threes against Chicago.
(22:59):
By the way, if the Rockets get a top three
or top two seed, sent a Christmas card to the
Chicago Bulls, who beat the Lakers twice one at Denver.
That game the Rockets beat the Bulls on night two
or back to back in mid March, was a better
win than I think we realized at the time. And
Fred had five threes in that game. So the first
(23:19):
six games when Fred came back, there were some up
and down, and certainly the Miami game influenced his numbers positively.
By the way, I always hate when people say, well,
if you take out X good game, here's what the
average would be. Well, you can do that with anybody,
just as if you say, well, if you take out
the bad game, you could make a player look really good. No,
you look at the averages. And so the first six games,
(23:40):
the first week and a half or so, it was
very positive. And then from the Miami post game forward
the five games since that's where it's been really bad.
He shot about twenty five percent from the field, twenty
five percent from three and you could argue that perhaps
the Rocket had to lead on him a bit too
much to get that win in Miami, and he's worn
down since its especially with the road back to back
(24:01):
earlier this week in Phoenix and LA. And so, because
the Rockets have such a commanding lead to accomplish their goals,
top three seed, home court and at least one round
opposite side of the bracket from the thunder eighty five
percent probability to be a top two seed, even considering
the difficulty of their closing schedule, I think they need
(24:23):
to be very careful with Fred van Fleet. We'll see
if he plays Friday against Oklahoma City. It may not
be just about does he play or does he not?
It could also be how many minutes does he play?
Do you perhaps limit him to twenty five or so,
maybe you let him play a couple of games this
weekend and then try and give him some rest right
before the playoffs. There's multiple ways you can play it,
but I think the macro takeaway here Fred was pretty
(24:46):
good when he came back starting March twelfth. The Rockets
went six to zero in that six game sample that
I referenced, which was punctuated by that win against the Heat,
and then they lost two games and Fred's efficiency fell
off a cliff in the five games after, which culminated
with that loss to the Lakers on Monday night when
(25:06):
he was two of fourteen. So I think we've seen
all year long. Even if Jalen LP and Shingoon are
your primary advantage generators, the Rockets benefit when they have
Fred in peak form. There's a reason why two of
their best wins of the year, the home won against
the Cavs and the one against Oklahoma City, also at
(25:26):
home in early December. Fred went off in those games
with thirty plus on elite shooting from three point range.
When you pair the young talents. With Fred at his best,
that's when this team gets to the next level when
they have the defense, and honestly, I say at their best.
They've been a top five defense all season long. They've
(25:47):
been a few peaks and valleys, as there are with
any team, but by and large, we know what this
team can do on a defensive end, and I think
that's certainly going to translate to the playoffs when there's
no back to backs and they're dialed in from a
focus and effort perspective every game. It's the offensive end
of the four over the Rockets in the middle of
the pack that spend the issue this season. And so
if you had the young talented players they have and
you pair it with a peak version of Freddin Vleet,
(26:08):
that's when they are truly lethal and can beat really
good teams. The question is how do the Rockets get
that version of Fred and so you can shut him
down the final five games. You can play him some
and not others. Maybe you sit him down on the
front end, maybe you sit him down on the back end.
Maybe you play him but you limited minutes. There's multiple
ways you can go about it. But I think getting
the best version of fredmand Fleet needs to be the
(26:30):
focus for the Rockets down the home stretch of the year.
I think it would be silly to bench. Look, the
intangibles are real offensively, defensively, getting guys organized, communicating, putting
players in the right spaces on the court. They're not
short of a serious injury going to not play him.
That would be silly. He is going to play, assuming
he's reasonably healthy, reasonably being not any worse than most
(26:53):
NBA players this time of year who have had soft
tissue injuries and are dealing with something. He's going to play.
We can talk about potentially limiting his men, it's a
little bit what can they do with a specific role
and the spots he goes to on the floor. How
much does he initiate the offense versus Jalen and the men. Sure,
we can talk about those things, but he's gonna play.
It's about how do you bring out the best version
(27:14):
of him? And that's important because again, some of their
best wins this year were when they had Fred at
his best. Let's not act like they don't need him.
So for me, that's the focus down the home stretch
of this year. How do they get Fred ready for
the playoff, because I think a men buying large coming
off the ankle injury has looked like himself. They don't
have any injury concerns elsewhere. There's nowhere back to back,
(27:35):
so you don't have to worry about Tari anymore. So
knock on wood assuming nobody turns an ankle, and I
think the Rockets will and should be pretty cautious to
try and avoid excessive injury risks over the final ten
days or so. They're in a good spot, they're playing
their best ball. The one guy with the question in
my opinion, is freedvan Fleet, and so that needs to
be the focus for them. They're at a point where
(27:58):
they're not gonna shut things down and say, oh, we've
secured our spot. No, they have not mathematically clenched even
home court advantage yet, so there is still something to
play for. They also want to remain sharp. They're not
going to take their foot off the gas, but you
can be strategic and that's what I want to see
them do with Fred Binfleet because outside of Fred, this
(28:19):
is a healthy roster and it's a good roster. You know,
we've talked about their struggles without Fred when he was
out in February. But honestly, you have to remember that
in that stretch he missed in February and in early
March as well, when he went out after reaggravating the ankle.
They were without Jabbari the first three weeks of that.
They had a ton of back to backs, so they're
(28:40):
missing Tari half the time. They missed a men after
he went down with his own ankle issue in March.
So as much as the Rockets struggled without Fred in
that stretch, and you could certainly feel his absence, he
was not the only guy that was out. Right now,
everybody's back, there's no back to back, so you have
Tari fully available, so you can be a little more
(29:02):
conservative with Fred. I don't think it is as desperate
of a situation in terms of how this team functions
without fredman Fleet. I'm not gonna say that because they
look great against Utah that you don't need him, and
that's going to translate against the Thunder on Friday Night.
That would be silly. The Jazz are terrible. Just because
the Rockets won without Fred and did so easily against
the Jazz doesn't mean anything as far as these five
(29:23):
strong teams that they're gonna play down the home stretch
of the year. That would be an overreaction. However, I
do think it would also be an overreaction to attribute
all of their struggles in the month of February and
to some extent in early March before they started turning
things around and not having fredman Fleet because they were
missing a lot of other players at that time as well.
Now you've got a healthy roster outside of Fred, you
(29:45):
can lean on those guys a little bit more down
the home stretch of the year and get Fred right.
Because for this team to be at its best, for
them to have a chance in the playoffs against good teams,
they're gonna need him and he's gonna play. It's not
realistic the show him down unless he literally can't walk.
He's a gamer. He takes his responsibility seriously as the
leader of this team, and as we just saw in
(30:06):
Miami on the road against a team that's playing for something,
when he's right, he can go out and win you
a game. He is that good, especially when you pair
him with the level of defense that imy Udoka has
this Rockets team playing at this season. They just have
to figure out how to get the best version of
Fred out more consistently, and so that's where managing him
down the home stretches this year is going to be
really really important. Anyway, that will do it for today's
(30:29):
many cast episode of the Logger Line. Just wanting to
hit a few themes. I think primarily it's a wonderful
day that you should celebrate. The one word of caution
that I would have going down the home strutch of
the year involves the health of Friedman Fleet and so
for me, my focus is going to be on making
sure or hoping that the Rockets make sure that they
can get that as the calendar turns to mid April
(30:51):
and we get ready for playoff basketball in Houston starting
April nineteenth or April twentieth. Anyway, with that, we'll wrap
things for today. And if you want more content before
our next show, which should have Palo when he gets
back from vacation, the best place to get that is online.
You can follow me on Twitter x at Bendubo's and
the show at the Logger Line. If you go to
the logger Lines page, you can find our link tree
(31:12):
which has all the links our distribution partners like Apple,
Google and Spotify. If you'd be kind not to subscribe,
leave posit review at your location of choice, we greatly
appreciate it. Also on that same linch where you can
find links to friends, sponsors, partners in the program, USA
Today's Rockets wire Carbeck Broyd's Forts Tax seven ninety if
you have those links and you can enjoy their content
as well. So with the plugs complete, I will adjourn
for today. As always, I appreciate you so much for listening,
(31:34):
and please come back soon for another new episode of
the Loggler line, Go Rockets,
Cheers, Rockets fans, Welcome to the lagger Line, an exclusive
podcast from the home of the Rockets, Sports Talk seven ninety.
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The logger Line.
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It starts now.
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Welcome aboard, Welcome back to another new episode of the
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I'm Ben Dubos, your host, editor of USA Today's Rocket
Square and contributor to Sports Talk seven ninety, official flagship
radio station of your Houston Rockets. Hello. Al's my usual
co host and producer out of Portugal is on vacation
for a few days, so long discussions will have to
wait until he's back next week. But I did want
to put out an episode in the interim with immediate
(01:06):
reaction to the big news, which is that the Rockets,
for the first time in five years, are back in
the NBA Playoffs, and for the first time in six years,
there will be playoff basketball played in Houston, Texas. That's
because Wednesday night, the Rockets took care of business at
home against the Utah Jazk that gave them their fiftieth
win of the season, and so because of that they
could no longer be passed by the Memphis Grizzlies, who
(01:28):
have a forty four and thirty two record and only
six games left to play so they can max out
at fifty wins. Rockets already have fifty in Rockets to
have the tiebreaker because they took three or four from
Memphis this season, so Houston secures its top six seed
because Memphis is tied for the six and seven slots
and the Rockets can no longer fall below them, but
(01:49):
because Memphis is the second place team in the Southwest Division,
Rockets also clinched the division title for the first time
in five years and only the ninth time in nearly
sixty years as a professional basketball franchise. So a monumental
day across the board for the Rockets fifty wins division
title playoff berth, all of it happening courtesy of a
home win against Utah by thirty eight points, where even
(02:11):
Reed Shepherd got to be your victory cigar with five
threes in the fourth quarter. So much to like, and
in some ways, even though there was a frustrating loss
to the Lakers. I will get to that a couple
of nights earlier. The fact that you got to celebrate
at home, that everyone got involved, that you were able
to basically do three and one with the playoff clinching win,
(02:33):
the division clinching win, and the round number a symbolic
one of fifty. I think clearly showing the Rockets have
reached another level in this rebuild, and it's not really
a rebuild anymore because at number two in the Western Conference,
fifty to twenty seven, with five regular season games left
to play, they're no longer rebuilding. They're here. So I'll
try and be quick since it's just me, but my
(02:56):
main message that I would convey to the fan base
celebrate this. Imagine if someone told you last summer that
the Rockets would win fifty games, win the division, have
their playoffs seed locked up, with five games still to play,
they could get to as many as fifty five wins.
This was a group that had an over under number
(03:16):
of forty three and a half going into the season. Yeah,
they went forty one and forty one last year and
had a lot of young talent, but the Western Conference
is deep to get to fifty plus wins in a
conference this strong is not easy to do. And I
don't care what they do in the playoffs. Well, I
guess if they get swept and like everyone plays poorly
(03:36):
and the average marger defeat is like thirty points per game,
I guess that might take a little bit of the
shine off. But more realistically, even if they go out
in round one, okay, well, most young teams have to
take their lumps in the playoffs before they truly get
to a contending level. The Thunder where the best team
in the Western the regular season year ago, and they
lost in five in the second round to Dallas. This
(03:58):
stuff happens, so I would celebrate this if you're listening
to this podcast. If you're tuning in to a marathon
sport like the NBA that has eighty two regular season games,
it can't all be dependent on the playoffs in terms
of how you feel about your team, especially if they
are this young. The whole idea for the Rockets throughout
this rebuild has been not to shortcut the process, that
(04:20):
by drafting and developing talent in house, you can have
a sustainable contender. Those are the two words that ever
since this rebuild launched in early twenty twenty one that
I've heard from twyoas in more than any others sustainable contender.
It's not all about this playoff run, and especially not
for a team that's this young. You will have more chances.
(04:41):
That doesn't mean they can't do something special this year.
Crazier things have happened. But if things don't go well, okay,
teams have to take their lumps. They have lots of
young players. The core seven when we talk about guys
drafted in the first round of the last four NBA
draft cycles, they're all twenty three years old or younger.
Three or the seven are in their first second seasons.
So there's plenty of upward mobility. Even if things don't
(05:04):
go well in the playoffs. You've got the future Phoenix
picks because Rafelstone made a really shrewd deal with the
Brooklyn Nets last off season. And so if you think
you need to go out and get a Kevin Durant
or some sort of proven difference maker to help elevate
this current team to the next level in a year
or so, well you'll have the ability to do that
this summer. If you think you need to this is
(05:25):
not the end, this is the beginning, and so to
check all of these boxes at the start of the journey,
I think ahead of even where the Rockets internally thought
they would be in early twenty twenty five. This is
a day and it's a season that you should celebrate.
And I don't think anything that happens in the playoffs,
and I'm not saying I think it's going to go poorly.
(05:46):
I'm just exploring even the realistic worst case scenario. You
go down to a good team in Round one of
a strong Western Conference. I don't think it's going to
dramatically change the optimism that you're feeling right now, which
is completely justified to be ahead of schedule. At this point,
it's almost like house money in terms of the upcoming
(06:06):
playoff run. I think if you're number two in the West,
they are capable of winning a series, maybe multiple series.
I think this team, it's not looky. They have the
second best point differential in the Western Conference, so they
can absolutely make some noise if they do need to
get fred Denvleet healthy. I'll talk about that in a
few minutes, but I just think at this point, the
(06:26):
symbolic number of fifty, being a division champion, potentially getting
as many as fifty five wins, having your playoff seed
locked up with two weeks almost left to play. It's
a momentous occasion for a franchise that this decade they
bottomed out and it was not pretty and it was
difficult for all of us to get through, but we
(06:47):
did and now they're on the other side. Realistically, they've
been on the other side ever since they hired Emo
Udoka in the twenty twenty three off season, brought in
the veterans like Fred Denfleet, Dylan Brooks, Jeff Green. But
I think checking all of those boxes, fifty wins division
title playoff berth all in one night at home at
Toyota Center, where the Rockets, by the way, are twenty
(07:08):
eight and eleven this season. So if they get home
court in the playoffs, and it looks like they're going
to be in position to have it at least for
one round, hopefully more than that, which they'd be in
position to do. If they're the number two seed as
they are at the moment, then yeah, they'll have every
opportunity to make some noise. And I think for a
team that hasn't for the most part, Fred and Dylan
(07:29):
excluded from this. They haven't taken their lumps in the postseason.
It will help being able to sort of dip their
toes in the water at home before having the full
fledged experience of playing on the road in a super
hostile environment in a game that has playoff intensity on
both ends of the floor, so a lot to like.
I only explore the downside scenarios to point out that, hey,
(07:50):
even if the worst case happens from here forward, I
think at this point this year is a resounding success
no matter what. And from this point forward, it's just
about saying how far ahead of schedule they are in
terms of realistic expectations, what our hopes were going into
the year. They are already ahead of schedule. It is
already an A or A plus level year, no matter
(08:13):
what happens the rest of the way. Again, if it's
something insane where they get swept and the average margin
is like thirty points per game and everyone plays poorly,
I guess that's the one scenario where it's not but
I personally don't think it's realistic. And even if somehow
that did happen, then okay, you do have other upgrades
or other avenues to upgrade your team, be it through
(08:35):
internal growth of these young guys, you will learn about
them no matter what in the playoffs or externally being
able to go out and make a big move and
bring in a difference maker that can potentially take you
to that next level. So I think this is a
week that you should celebrate everything that has come with
being a rocketspan this decade, there've been a lot of woes,
and so if you stuck it out and you go
(08:58):
through the grind of watching majority of eighty two game
regular seasons, if you care enough to listen to a
podcast like this, you shouldn't let whatever happens in the playoffs,
especially with the team this young and with this much
potential to get better both internally and externally moving forward.
This is a home run no matter what this twenty
four to twenty five season for the Rockets, and we
(09:20):
should also note they've gotten better as the year moves along.
We can talk about all the benchmarks that they cleared.
They're now thirteen and two in their last fifteen games,
so on top of the overall season long numbers, their
positioned in the West, the fact that they're playing their
best ball when it means the most. We know the
lumps they took at mid season, they had a lot
(09:41):
of injuries, they had that stretch in early February where
they lost six straight games. To come out on the
other side and to go thirteen and two in their
last fifteen down the home stretch of this season, I
think it shows you that, and in some ways it's
like a microcosm of the rebuild as a whole. You
take your lumps, but when you zoom out and look
(10:02):
at not just the macro, or not just the micro,
but the macro, the upward trajectory, it's clear they are
rising quickly. And it's a week that's just a really,
really good time to be a Rockets fan. So I
would urge you to celebrate. I would say, even the
loss earlier this week to the Lakers, it didn't really
(10:23):
bother me. I mean, for starters, night two of a
back to back, they don't have any more of those.
We know that's been an issue all year long for
a few reasons. This is the team that depends on
having peak effort, which is difficult to do on night
two of back to back, especially on the road. Seven
to ten in those seventeen second night of a back
to back, setting no more of those. I thought the
officiating was terrible as well, and yet you were right
(10:45):
there within a possession in the final minute of the gate.
This was not like the Denver game, which did bother me,
and we talked about that on the last pot a
little over a week ago. When they were down nineteen.
They didn't seem to have a plan for Coveringaul Murray.
There were lapses in focus and competitiveness. I thought that
(11:05):
Lakers game, the Rockets took it very seriously, even having
some tired legs. I think the adrenaline of being on
national TV, the spotlight against Lebron, James, Luka, Dancic. They
responded to that, and I saw some national takes trying
to frame it as, oh, the Lakers have proven closers
and Lebron and Luca. We know the questions with the Rockets,
(11:27):
do they have an a one? Jalen Green did just
win his second Western Conference Player of the Week award,
but he wasn't great against the Lakers. Just nine points,
nine rebounds, I think, shot four to twelve something like that,
and he ultimately didn't close the game. That's really not
what decided the game. The Rockets were down seven with
a little over six minutes left. So this was not
a matter of the Lakers just out executing the Rockets
(11:49):
when it mattered most and Superstars being the difference. No,
the Rockets got very close multiple times, cut it to
two three points. They couldn't get over the hump. The
problem was the hill they had to climb. The Lakers
from about the midway point of the game to the
middle part of the fourth quarter put some distance between
themselves and the Rockets. And it wasn't that, you know,
(12:11):
the Rockets just didn't have the guy that could take
over the game. No, it's that the Rockets strategically left
open certain Lakers. Dorian Phitty Smith gave Vincent, you have
to give up something if you're going to commit the
resources to force Lebron and Luca into inefficient games, which
they did. The Rockets decided they would live with shots
from Dorian Phitty Smith and gave Vincent, and they went
out and made six threes apiece shot twelve of twenty four.
(12:33):
That's tough to do. I don't care where the looks
are coming from. The Rockets dared those guys to make shots,
and they did. And conversely, the Lakers dared Fred Van
Fleet to make a lot of shots and he didn't.
He shot two of fourteen one of seven from three.
And we now know because he sat out Wednesday's game
against Utah he was dealing with ankle and knee issues.
So the Rockets they started the game going through all
(12:54):
for in Shaoon. We know the gravity that Jalen Green
has on a nightly basis. And even if you want
to say that Jalen Green underachieved against the Lakers, which
you did, okay, well, I would say a men Thompson
over achieved twenty points. It had some tough buckets down
the stretch. I would say the three of those, Jalen,
Chinooon and a Men, those are your primary advantage generators
(13:15):
on offense. And then Jabari Switztun, you're coming in off
the bench, had a promising game against the Lakers as well.
So those are the guys from a Houston perspective that
generate your advantages, and so you need your other players
on the floor with them to make shots. In much
the same way that for the Lakers, Lebron and Luca
are the advantage generators and the Rockets. You know a
(13:36):
men Thompson and Dylan Brooks did a good job at
the point of attack, but they also had some help,
and so the Rockets stared certain guys to beat them,
and the Lakers had two guys step up and make
shots at a high level. Tip your hat to them.
And conversely, the Rockets generated some advantages with Jalen Shangud
and the men. Your three promising young talents with a
lot of creativity and athleticism, and not enough of the
(13:57):
Rockets supporting cast made their open looks off off of
the gravity, off of the attention that their big three drew.
And with Fred again, it's not just the LA game.
His final five games before sitting out against Utah, he
had shot just twenty five percent from the field and
twenty five percent from three. So all in all, the
Lakers had two of their role players step up and
(14:20):
make six threes a piece, combined to shoot twelve of
twenty four from behind the arc. Fred Fmfleet shot two
of fourteen overall and one of seven from three. The
fact that the Rockets were even close given those splits
tells you how hard they played, how well they played defensively,
offensively even if you want to say Jalen underachieved at
say a men probably overachieved a little bit. A'll no,
(14:40):
it was a promising showing on the road night to it.
Back to back, bad officiating, all of that stuff, and
the Rockets were still right there, and so unlike the
Denver game, I don't have a lot of concerns. It
was frustrating to lose the way the Rockets did, but
I don't think they got out coached. I don't think
there was an effort problem. I think the Lakers role
players just made a few more shots at home in
(15:01):
a game where they had a rest advantage as well.
I think you just sort of tipped your cap. And
if the Rockets play the Lakers again, and they will
next Friday, I like the rockets chances. I think it's
a pretty good matchup for them. And so in contrast
to that Denver game, where I did think there were
a few alarming things in terms of the lineups that
Imo Udoka ran out there, the focus they played more
accurately didn't play with I think against the Lakers it
(15:22):
was a lot better and a good team just went
out and got to win. Sometimes that happens. I don't
see any real reason to be alarmed by it, especially
when two nights later we saw how the Rockets responded.
I know the Jazz are bad, they're sixteen and sixty. Well,
it's not easy to beat any NBA team by forty,
and the Rockets went out and did that, and they
got to celebrate a bit in the postgame locker room
as a result. So I think, all in all, it's
(15:48):
been a very good week. Even with that loss, it's
clearly been a very good season for the reasons outlined earlier.
As far as the final five games, the big elephant
in the room for me is the health of fredven
Fleet because barring an extreme injury, and I don't think
that's what we're dealing with. It's more of a nagging situation.
He's not gonna not play. The contract has some role
(16:11):
in it, but it's more just his stature in the league,
and he does provide some value. The intangibles are real.
They're not going to just bench the guy and not
play them at all or dramatically scale down his role. Now,
I would argue, and I think they're open to this.
If it's not going well, should you play twenty five
to thirty minutes instead of thirty five to forty. Yeah,
there's no reason he should be going out there and
(16:33):
playing forty ish minutes per game if he's not shooting well.
As I said in the last pot, let's not Martin
Maldonado this. But assuming he's relatively healthy and imy Udoka
said when he sat out Wednesday, Fred that is that
the ankle slashing, the issues or something he's probably going
to have to deal with the rest of the season
and try to manage. It's not that uncommon at this
(16:56):
stage of an NBA season when we talk about ligament issues,
which a sprain and inherently entails, and if they miss
a month or more as Fred did, it's clearly died
a grade one. Realistically, you need and tell the off
season to get fully healthy, to let it completely heal.
There's a level that you can play with and that's
(17:16):
what Fred has gotten back to. But in terms of
being fully healthy all the way back, that doesn't happen
until you have a month or more usually to rest,
and that's just not realistic at this point of the season.
And it's not just Fred, Guys all around the NBA
are going through the same challenges, and you know, it
should help that there are no more back to backs.
(17:37):
I don't think it's a coincidence that this especially flared
up after the Rockets had that road back to back
in Phoenix and LA. But I do think it's something
that with the Rockets now having a lead of some significance.
In addition to the Rockets taking care of business Wednesday,
we got some very unexpected help from Denver, where the Spurs,
(17:58):
who are largely in tank mode without Wimby, went in
and beat the Nuggets. Russell Westbrook Rockets legend. Not only
did he lose the game for the Nuggets on Thursday
or on Tuesday excuse me, against Minnesota with the mislayff
and then the foul of a three point shooter in
the final second, he effectively lost the game Wednesday as well,
or I should say the loss for Denver because of
(18:20):
Russell Westbrook and because of the way it went down
on Tuesday, ended up forcing them to lose Wednesday as well,
because after a double overtime game that ended after midnight,
so many tired legs. It didn't make sense for the
Nuggets to play all their big guys like Jabal Murray
like Nicola Jokic on night to back to back, and
so the shorthanded Nuggets went out there and lost to
(18:40):
this furs as well. That's a game that you would
never think, on paper, had any chance to go to
the Rockets way in terms of, you know, the standings
race being a top to top three seed. We know
the Rockets are competing with teams like the Nuggets, the Lakers,
the Warriors, and to get that help from the Denver Nuggets,
it's unexpected and it gives the Rockets a little bit
of a luxury when it comes to how they navigate
(19:01):
these final five games of the season. Because you're now
up three games in the lost column over the Nuggets,
You're up two games in the lost column against the Lakers,
pending what happens in Lakers Warriors later tonight. That's certainly
a losable game with only five games left to play.
So even though it's difficult for the Rockets, who look
at their closing schedule and they've got the Thunder, the Warriors,
the Clippers, the Lakers, the Nuggets for starters, I would
(19:23):
say the final week of the year, it may not
be as difficult as it looks on paper. I know
they've got this challenge and closed statistically at ranks as
one of the toughest in the entire league. Well in
the final week of the year. A lot of these teams,
even if they're competing for seeding, are going to be
proactive with resting guys a week before the playoffs, especially
those teams, and most of these are are veteran Layden.
(19:45):
The Warriors with Stuff, the Clippers with Kawhi and James Harden,
the Lakers with Lebron and Luca, the Nuggets with Jokic.
The Thunder I guess they're the one team that's not
super veteran Layden, but they have such a massive lead.
We'll see how aggressively they go after that game on
Friday and Houston. But the point is, just as we
saw the Nuggets sort of pull back against the Spurs
(20:06):
in a Western conference that is this deep to where
any team you draw other than maybe Memphis given the
coaching change and the way they have fallen apart down
the stretch of the season, and I don't know what
seed you'll need to be and potentially draw them. They
may not even make the playoffs, depending on how they
fare in the play in tournament because they're now tied
for the seventh spot. It's going to be difficult. You're
(20:27):
going to need to execute, and so these teams that
are dependent on veteran stars may rest them over the
final week of the season. So the schedule for the
Rockets probably isn't going to be as difficult as it
looks on paper. But even if it is, to have
a three game lead with a week five games left
to play, that's pretty significant. If you go to playoffs
(20:48):
status dot com, which simulates based on team strengths the
remainder of the season and spits out probabilities, they have
the Rockets as a ninety eight percent probability to be
a top three seed and eighty five five percent at
number two. That is pretty massive. Less than one percent
is the possibility of them falling to five, which would
be not having home court advantage. So the Rockets, they'll
(21:10):
play their first home playoff games since May of twenty nineteen.
They will most likely open in Houston on Saturday the
nineteenth or Sunday the twentieth. And so I talked in
the last pot about how first you've got to get
into top six, that's the bare minimum. Then the second
benchmark is being in the top four, making sure you
open it home. And then the third benchmark, what makes
(21:32):
the close to the season an absolute a is getting
in the top three. Well, the first benchmark is mathematically cleared,
and the second benchmark, being in the top four is
quite literally at ninety nine percent now and the third benchmark,
which is top three, being on the opposite side of
the bracket from the Thunder and having home court advantage,
is now at ninety eight percent. Even if that might
(21:53):
be a little bit strong for at least my taste
when I look at how difficult the close is on pay,
the point is it is very likely, even if it's
not ninety eight percent, it is very very likely the
Rockets are gonna be on the opposite side of the
bracket from the Thunder. They're gonna get home court advantage.
They've taken care of business, and so because of that
they can be a little more proactive with any injury
(22:16):
situations out there. And this fred Vinfleet situation. Look when
he came back from the ankle injury at the start
of March or in the middle of March, because he
had the one game comeback against Sacramento where he reaggravated
it by stepping on the ref's foot in the first
minute of the game. He came back, and in the
first six games after March twelfth, he averaged about seventeen
(22:37):
points per game on forty five percent overall shooting and
forty five percent from three, and the Rockets went six
to zero. And some of that, of course, was that
insane game in Miami where he scored thirty seven, basically
won it by himself along with him and Thompson, and
I think shot nine of eleven from three. But it
wasn't just that game. He was over forty percent his
first two games back. He had five threes against Chicago.
(22:59):
By the way, if the Rockets get a top three
or top two seed, sent a Christmas card to the
Chicago Bulls, who beat the Lakers twice one at Denver.
That game the Rockets beat the Bulls on night two
or back to back in mid March, was a better
win than I think we realized at the time. And
Fred had five threes in that game. So the first
(23:19):
six games when Fred came back, there were some up
and down, and certainly the Miami game influenced his numbers positively.
By the way, I always hate when people say, well,
if you take out X good game, here's what the
average would be. Well, you can do that with anybody,
just as if you say, well, if you take out
the bad game, you could make a player look really good. No,
you look at the averages. And so the first six games,
(23:40):
the first week and a half or so, it was
very positive. And then from the Miami post game forward
the five games since that's where it's been really bad.
He shot about twenty five percent from the field, twenty
five percent from three and you could argue that perhaps
the Rocket had to lead on him a bit too
much to get that win in Miami, and he's worn
down since its especially with the road back to back
(24:01):
earlier this week in Phoenix and LA. And so, because
the Rockets have such a commanding lead to accomplish their goals,
top three seed, home court and at least one round
opposite side of the bracket from the thunder eighty five
percent probability to be a top two seed, even considering
the difficulty of their closing schedule, I think they need
(24:23):
to be very careful with Fred van Fleet. We'll see
if he plays Friday against Oklahoma City. It may not
be just about does he play or does he not?
It could also be how many minutes does he play?
Do you perhaps limit him to twenty five or so,
maybe you let him play a couple of games this
weekend and then try and give him some rest right
before the playoffs. There's multiple ways you can play it,
but I think the macro takeaway here Fred was pretty
(24:46):
good when he came back starting March twelfth. The Rockets
went six to zero in that six game sample that
I referenced, which was punctuated by that win against the Heat,
and then they lost two games and Fred's efficiency fell
off a cliff in the five games after, which culminated
with that loss to the Lakers on Monday night when
(25:06):
he was two of fourteen. So I think we've seen
all year long. Even if Jalen LP and Shingoon are
your primary advantage generators, the Rockets benefit when they have
Fred in peak form. There's a reason why two of
their best wins of the year, the home won against
the Cavs and the one against Oklahoma City, also at
(25:26):
home in early December. Fred went off in those games
with thirty plus on elite shooting from three point range.
When you pair the young talents. With Fred at his best,
that's when this team gets to the next level when
they have the defense, and honestly, I say at their best.
They've been a top five defense all season long. They've
(25:47):
been a few peaks and valleys, as there are with
any team, but by and large, we know what this
team can do on a defensive end, and I think
that's certainly going to translate to the playoffs when there's
no back to backs and they're dialed in from a
focus and effort perspective every game. It's the offensive end
of the four over the Rockets in the middle of
the pack that spend the issue this season. And so
if you had the young talented players they have and
you pair it with a peak version of Freddin Vleet,
(26:08):
that's when they are truly lethal and can beat really
good teams. The question is how do the Rockets get
that version of Fred and so you can shut him
down the final five games. You can play him some
and not others. Maybe you sit him down on the
front end, maybe you sit him down on the back end.
Maybe you play him but you limited minutes. There's multiple
ways you can go about it. But I think getting
the best version of fredmand Fleet needs to be the
(26:30):
focus for the Rockets down the home stretch of the year.
I think it would be silly to bench. Look, the
intangibles are real offensively, defensively, getting guys organized, communicating, putting
players in the right spaces on the court. They're not
short of a serious injury going to not play him.
That would be silly. He is going to play, assuming
he's reasonably healthy, reasonably being not any worse than most
(26:53):
NBA players this time of year who have had soft
tissue injuries and are dealing with something. He's going to play.
We can talk about potentially limiting his men, it's a
little bit what can they do with a specific role
and the spots he goes to on the floor. How
much does he initiate the offense versus Jalen and the men. Sure,
we can talk about those things, but he's gonna play.
It's about how do you bring out the best version
(27:14):
of him? And that's important because again, some of their
best wins this year were when they had Fred at
his best. Let's not act like they don't need him.
So for me, that's the focus down the home stretch
of this year. How do they get Fred ready for
the playoff, because I think a men buying large coming
off the ankle injury has looked like himself. They don't
have any injury concerns elsewhere. There's nowhere back to back,
(27:35):
so you don't have to worry about Tari anymore. So
knock on wood assuming nobody turns an ankle, and I
think the Rockets will and should be pretty cautious to
try and avoid excessive injury risks over the final ten
days or so. They're in a good spot, they're playing
their best ball. The one guy with the question in
my opinion, is freedvan Fleet, and so that needs to
be the focus for them. They're at a point where
(27:58):
they're not gonna shut things down and say, oh, we've
secured our spot. No, they have not mathematically clenched even
home court advantage yet, so there is still something to
play for. They also want to remain sharp. They're not
going to take their foot off the gas, but you
can be strategic and that's what I want to see
them do with Fred Binfleet because outside of Fred, this
(28:19):
is a healthy roster and it's a good roster. You know,
we've talked about their struggles without Fred when he was
out in February. But honestly, you have to remember that
in that stretch he missed in February and in early
March as well, when he went out after reaggravating the ankle.
They were without Jabbari the first three weeks of that.
They had a ton of back to backs, so they're
(28:40):
missing Tari half the time. They missed a men after
he went down with his own ankle issue in March.
So as much as the Rockets struggled without Fred in
that stretch, and you could certainly feel his absence, he
was not the only guy that was out. Right now,
everybody's back, there's no back to back, so you have
Tari fully available, so you can be a little more
(29:02):
conservative with Fred. I don't think it is as desperate
of a situation in terms of how this team functions
without fredman Fleet. I'm not gonna say that because they
look great against Utah that you don't need him, and
that's going to translate against the Thunder on Friday Night.
That would be silly. The Jazz are terrible. Just because
the Rockets won without Fred and did so easily against
the Jazz doesn't mean anything as far as these five
(29:23):
strong teams that they're gonna play down the home stretch
of the year. That would be an overreaction. However, I
do think it would also be an overreaction to attribute
all of their struggles in the month of February and
to some extent in early March before they started turning
things around and not having fredman Fleet because they were
missing a lot of other players at that time as well.
Now you've got a healthy roster outside of Fred, you
(29:45):
can lean on those guys a little bit more down
the home stretch of the year and get Fred right.
Because for this team to be at its best, for
them to have a chance in the playoffs against good teams,
they're gonna need him and he's gonna play. It's not
realistic the show him down unless he literally can't walk.
He's a gamer. He takes his responsibility seriously as the
leader of this team, and as we just saw in
(30:06):
Miami on the road against a team that's playing for something,
when he's right, he can go out and win you
a game. He is that good, especially when you pair
him with the level of defense that imy Udoka has
this Rockets team playing at this season. They just have
to figure out how to get the best version of
Fred out more consistently, and so that's where managing him
down the home stretches this year is going to be
really really important. Anyway, that will do it for today's
(30:29):
many cast episode of the Logger Line. Just wanting to
hit a few themes. I think primarily it's a wonderful
day that you should celebrate. The one word of caution
that I would have going down the home strutch of
the year involves the health of Friedman Fleet and so
for me, my focus is going to be on making
sure or hoping that the Rockets make sure that they
can get that as the calendar turns to mid April
(30:51):
and we get ready for playoff basketball in Houston starting
April nineteenth or April twentieth. Anyway, with that, we'll wrap
things for today. And if you want more content before
our next show, which should have Palo when he gets
back from vacation, the best place to get that is online.
You can follow me on Twitter x at Bendubo's and
the show at the Logger Line. If you go to
the logger Lines page, you can find our link tree
(31:12):
which has all the links our distribution partners like Apple,
Google and Spotify. If you'd be kind not to subscribe,
leave posit review at your location of choice, we greatly
appreciate it. Also on that same linch where you can
find links to friends, sponsors, partners in the program, USA
Today's Rockets wire Carbeck Broyd's Forts Tax seven ninety if
you have those links and you can enjoy their content
as well. So with the plugs complete, I will adjourn
for today. As always, I appreciate you so much for listening,
(31:34):
and please come back soon for another new episode of
the Loggler line, Go Rockets,
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